THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN

Tag: economy

  • Market Losses Highlight Why Timing and Valuations Become Crucial During Major Crashes

    How to Think Like an Investor Instead of a Speculator

    Learning to invest successfully requires more than understanding markets. It requires learning how to think like an investor rather than a speculator—and, just as importantly, recognizing how our instincts and conditioning can lead us toward poor decisions.

    At the foundation of both good and bad investment decisions is something far less emotional: arithmetic.

    Markets do not care about fear, optimism, or conviction. The numbers simply do what the numbers do. Yet investors often overlook the basic mathematics that determines how much a loss really costs, how today’s valuation influences tomorrow’s returns, and how the timing of a market decline can affect financial goals.

    Three numbers, in particular, can shape much of an investor’s financial journey:

    1. How difficult it is to recover from a loss.
    2. How today’s valuation influences future returns.
    3. What happens when a major downturn occurs at the worst possible point in your life.

    Let’s examine the mathematics investors often overlook.

    The Mathematics of Loss

    You have probably seen the familiar charts showing more than a century of market history. Bull markets dominate the long-term picture, while crashes appear as relatively small interruptions in an upward-sloping line. The accompanying message is usually reassuring: stay invested, remain patient, and eventually everything will work out.

    It is one of the most popular narratives in investing—but it can also create a misleading sense of security.

    Before accepting that message at face value, consider two questions.

    If remaining fully invested through every market environment were always the obvious answer, why have some of history’s greatest investors consistently emphasized capital preservation?

    From Warren Buffett to Paul Tudor Jones, successful investors have repeatedly stressed variations of the same principle: buy intelligently, sell when appropriate, and above all, protect capital.

    The reason becomes obvious once you understand the mathematics of losses.

    Percentage gains and percentage losses are not symmetrical.

    A portfolio that falls 10% needs an approximately 11.1% gain just to return to its starting value. A 20% decline requires a 25% recovery. A 50% decline requires a 100% gain.

    In other words, after losing half your capital, the market has to double simply to bring you back to where you started.

    Recovering from a loss is fundamentally different from creating new wealth.

    The problem becomes even clearer when we translate percentages into actual dollars or index points.

    Imagine an index rising from 1,000 to 8,000. That represents a 700% gain. Now suppose the index experiences a 50% correction.

    The decline is not simply a 50-percentage-point reduction from the original 700% gain. The index loses 4,000 points and falls back to 4,000.

    The original 700% gain has therefore been reduced to just 300%.

    Half of the index’s value—and more than half of the accumulated gain—has disappeared in a single decline.

    This is why a major correction late in an extended bull market cannot simply be dismissed as another temporary fluctuation.

    Bear markets historically have the potential to erase a substantial portion of the preceding advance. For investors focused on long-term wealth creation, capital preservation therefore matters just as much as participation in the upside.

    Why Losses Compound Differently

    There is another problem: equal-sized gains and losses do not offset each other.

    Suppose you begin with $100,000. A 10% gain takes the portfolio to $110,000. A subsequent 10% decline, however, reduces it to $99,000.

    You are now down $1,000 despite experiencing a 10% gain followed by a 10% loss.

    Repeated over time, this effect becomes known as volatility drag.

    It explains why two portfolios with the same average return can produce very different outcomes. The portfolio experiencing larger fluctuations can end up with less wealth than one generating the same average return more consistently.

    That leads to one of the most important distinctions in investing:

    Average return is not the same thing as actual return.

    Consider a portfolio that gains 10% for three consecutive years and then suffers a 10% loss. The final result is not equivalent to simply subtracting 10% from the average annual return.

    The path matters.

    The return advertised on paper and the amount of money actually available in your account can be dramatically different.

    You cannot spend an average return. You can only spend the dollars that actually remain in your portfolio.

    The Hidden Cost: Time

    The greatest cost of a severe investment loss may not even be the money itself.

    It may be time.

    After a major drawdown, your portfolio must not only recover the lost capital—it must recover before your financial objectives arrive. Retirement, education expenses, property purchases, or other major goals operate according to a schedule that cannot always be postponed.

    You can potentially earn more money.

    You cannot manufacture more time.

    That is why understanding loss aversion is so important. Human psychology naturally makes losses feel more painful than equivalent gains feel rewarding. This instinct can encourage investors to hold onto small, manageable losses for too long, allowing them to develop into much larger problems.

    Benjamin Graham captured this psychological challenge decades ago:

    “The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.”

    Valuations Can Shape Long-Term Returns

    Avoiding catastrophic losses is only the first part of the equation.

    The second question is when the probability of disappointing returns becomes higher.

    That brings us to valuation.

    Valuation is not a reliable tool for predicting what the market will do next month or even next year. Markets can remain expensive for much longer than investors expect.

    But valuation becomes much more informative over longer horizons.

    The price investors pay today has a significant influence on the returns they can reasonably expect over the following decade.

    This distinction is critical.

    High valuations do not guarantee that the next year will produce negative returns. Instead, they suggest that the total return available over a much longer period is likely to be lower.

    That is a very different proposition.

    One of the best-known long-term valuation indicators is the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio, or CAPE, developed by economist Robert Shiller.

    Unlike the traditional P/E ratio, CAPE uses inflation-adjusted earnings averaged over a 10-year period. The objective is to reduce the influence of temporary earnings booms and recessions.

    CAPE is only one valuation measure, however.

    Other indicators tell a similar story. Price-to-sales ratios remain elevated, while market capitalization relative to the overall economy—the measure Warren Buffett once described as a particularly useful valuation gauge—also points toward historically expensive markets.

    Earnings yields and corporate returns on equity provide additional perspectives.

    When multiple independent valuation measures point in the same direction, the signal becomes considerably more difficult to dismiss.

    And the message is straightforward:

    When starting valuations are high, investors should lower their expectations for future returns.

    The reasoning is simple.

    If you pay a high price today for a future stream of corporate earnings, a greater portion of tomorrow’s growth has effectively already been reflected in today’s price.

    The result is less return left for the future.

    Starting Valuations Matter

    Historical market data reinforces this relationship.

    When markets are grouped according to their starting valuation levels and subsequent 10-year returns are examined, the relationship becomes clear: the more investors pay at the beginning, the less attractive their long-term returns tend to be.

    This helps explain why market history contains only a relatively small number of extended secular bull markets that generated a disproportionate share of total long-term gains.

    Being invested is important—but when you begin investing also matters.

    This is consistent with Bob Farrell’s well-known principle that markets tend to revert toward their historical averages. The further valuations move away from those averages, the greater the potential for future returns to normalize.

    As the saying goes, this time is rarely different.

    “Valuation tells you almost nothing about next year and almost everything about the next decade.”

    The Retirement Reckoning

    The consequences become much more serious when the mathematics of losses and valuations intersect with retirement.

    While you are working and regularly adding money to your portfolio, a market decline can actually create an opportunity. Lower prices allow investors to purchase more shares with each contribution.

    Retirement changes the equation.

    Once investors begin withdrawing money rather than contributing capital, the order in which returns occur can become more important than the average return itself.

    This is known as sequence-of-returns risk.

    The concept is simple but potentially devastating.

    A retiree withdrawing money during a severe market decline must sell assets while prices are depressed. Those shares are no longer available to participate in the eventual recovery.

    The result can permanently damage the portfolio even if the market eventually produces the same long-term average return.

    Consider a $1 million retirement portfolio with a 4% annual withdrawal rate, equivalent to roughly $3,333 per month.

    If the market falls 10% while withdrawals continue, the portfolio’s decline can be substantially greater than 10% because capital is simultaneously being removed.

    Under the example described here, the portfolio could fall by approximately 13.78% rather than 10%.

    Recovering from that combined decline requires a gain of roughly 21.14%.

    This illustrates the fundamental problem: even if the market eventually returns to its previous level, the retiree’s portfolio may not fully recover because money was withdrawn along the way.

    Research on retirement withdrawal strategies has repeatedly highlighted the danger of experiencing a severe bear market early in retirement. A 30%–40% decline during the first few years can materially increase the probability of exhausting retirement assets, even when long-term average returns appear reasonable.

    The sequence of returns can therefore be just as important as the returns themselves.

    Consider two retirees following the same withdrawal strategy with identical portfolios.

    One could finish retirement with several million dollars, while another could come close to exhausting their assets.

    The difference may simply be the market environment encountered during the first few years of retirement.

    A retiree entering the market around 2000, for example, faced extremely high valuations immediately before a prolonged period of weak market performance. Withdrawals during that downturn compounded the damage.

    The lesson is not that today’s retirees are destined to fail.

    It is that the margin for error becomes smaller when valuations are elevated and withdrawals are already underway.

    For investors approaching retirement, this is one of the most important risks to consider—yet it is often overlooked by simplistic buy-and-hold strategies.

    What the Mathematics Suggests

    When these ideas are combined, three principles emerge.

    • Losses are asymmetric. Avoiding a major drawdown can be more valuable than capturing every part of a bull-market rally.
    • Valuations influence the odds. Elevated starting valuations generally imply more modest long-term return expectations.
    • Timing matters most when financial goals are close. A severe downturn shortly before or after retirement can have consequences far beyond the headline market decline.

    None of this means investors should sell everything and retreat to cash.

    Instead, it suggests a more deliberate approach to risk management.

    Investors should consider how much downside they can realistically tolerate, how expensive the assets they own have become, how close they are to needing the money, and whether their portfolio can withstand a prolonged period of weak returns.

    The objective is not to predict every market top or bottom.

    It is to avoid allowing one unfavorable period to permanently derail long-term financial goals.

    The Bottom Line

    The mathematics behind successful investing is surprisingly simple.

    A large loss requires a disproportionately large gain to recover.

    High valuations can reduce the returns available in the future.

    And experiencing a severe downturn at the wrong point in your financial life can turn an ordinary market correction into a permanent setback.

    These principles have appeared repeatedly throughout more than a century of market history.

    For that reason, experienced investors should think beyond daily price movements and headline percentages.

    Think in terms of dollars, years, and financial objectives.

    The message can be reduced to three rules:

    • Avoid catastrophic losses.
    • Respect valuations.
    • Pay attention to timing.

    The more interesting question is why so much conventional investment advice continues to emphasize the opposite.

    Investors are often told to remain fully invested regardless of conditions, that beating the index is nearly impossible, that legendary investors cannot be replicated, and that keeping costs low is the only factor that truly matters.

    But what happens when those assumptions are subjected to the same unforgiving mathematics?

    That is where the next discussion begins: examining the investment industry’s most comfortable assumptions and testing whether they actually hold up when the numbers are put under pressure.

  • The Gold-Silver Ratio: A Smarter Strategy to Increase Your Metal Holdings

    How movements in one of finance’s oldest ratios can potentially help investors turn the same amount of capital into a larger precious-metals holding.

    Imagine two investors starting with exactly the same position: ten ounces of gold.

    The first investor simply holds the gold and does nothing. Twenty years later, that investor still owns ten ounces. The dollar value may have increased significantly, but measured in gold, the position has not grown.

    The second investor pays attention to the relationship between gold and silver. When gold becomes unusually expensive compared with silver, the investor converts some gold into silver. Later, when silver becomes relatively expensive compared with gold, the investor reverses the trade.

    For example, assume the first conversion occurs when the gold-silver ratio is 100, and the second takes place when the ratio falls to 50. Ten ounces of gold would convert into 1,000 ounces of silver. If those 1,000 ounces are later exchanged when the ratio reaches 50, they would represent 20 ounces of gold.

    Both investors began with ten ounces. Neither added new capital. Yet one still has ten ounces, while the other has doubled the amount of gold owned.

    Of course, real-world investing is far more complicated. Transaction costs, taxes and the challenge of identifying turning points can significantly affect the outcome. Markets rarely provide such perfectly timed opportunities. Nevertheless, the underlying mathematics highlights an important idea: for precious-metals investors, wealth does not necessarily have to be measured in currency. It can also be measured in ounces.

    A Ratio Rather Than a Conventional Price

    The gold-silver ratio is one of the oldest measures used in financial markets. Its calculation is straightforward: divide the price of one ounce of gold by the price of one ounce of silver. If gold trades at $4,000 and silver at $50, the ratio is 80, meaning one ounce of gold has the same market value as 80 ounces of silver.

    For much of history, this relationship was remarkably stable. When gold and silver were both widely used as money, governments often established official exchange rates between the two metals. Rome used a ratio of approximately 12:1, while the United States adopted a 15:1 ratio under the Coinage Act of 1792. For extended periods, ratios in the 12-to-15 range were relatively common.

    That monetary framework gradually disappeared during the nineteenth century as major economies moved away from bimetallism and silver lost its formal monetary role. Germany moved toward the gold standard following 1871, while the United States ended the monetary standard for the silver dollar in 1873. Other industrial economies followed similar paths. By 1900, the ratio had climbed to approximately 34.5:1.

    The modern relationship between the two metals is very different. Central banks around the world hold tens of thousands of tonnes of gold but virtually no silver reserves. Silver, meanwhile, has developed into an important industrial commodity, with applications ranging from electronics and solar panels to automobiles and electrical infrastructure.

    There is no longer a government-fixed exchange rate between the two metals. Instead, the ratio fluctuates as gold and silver respond differently to monetary policy, economic conditions, industrial demand, investor sentiment, fear and speculation.

    That volatility is what creates potential opportunities.

    Why the Gold-Silver Ratio Changes

    The strategy works because gold and silver do not always move in tandem.

    Gold continues to function primarily as a monetary and investment asset. Central banks accumulate gold, while investors often turn to it during periods of economic or financial uncertainty. Compared with silver, relatively little of gold’s annual demand comes from industrial applications.

    Silver has a more complicated role. Investment demand makes it sensitive to many of the same factors that influence gold, but its industrial applications tie it closely to manufacturing, electronics, solar energy and the broader economic cycle. Silver is also a considerably smaller market and has historically experienced greater price volatility.

    These differences can produce substantial changes in the gold-silver ratio.

    During periods of severe financial stress, gold can outperform as investors seek monetary protection, while concerns about industrial demand can put additional pressure on silver. The ratio therefore rises. When precious-metals sentiment improves and silver begins catching up, the relationship can reverse just as quickly.

    The dramatic move during the March 2020 pandemic panic illustrates the point. The ratio climbed to approximately 125.7 as silver suffered a sharp sell-off. By contrast, major silver rallies in 1980 and 2011 pushed the ratio toward roughly 15 and 30, respectively.

    However, historical extremes should be treated as reference points rather than fixed rules. A ratio of 80 does not automatically mean silver is undervalued, just as a ratio of 50 does not guarantee that gold will outperform.

    Markets do not have to return to their historical averages.

    The Challenge of Transaction Costs

    Transaction costs introduce another important consideration.

    Regularly moving between physical gold and silver can quickly reduce the theoretical gains of a ratio strategy. Dealer premiums, bid-ask spreads, storage expenses and the practical difficulties of handling physical coins and bars all reduce the amount of metal retained after each transaction.

    As a result, repeatedly rotating between physical gold and silver can be considerably less efficient than the simple mathematical example suggests.

    Goldwise attempts to reduce some of this friction.

    Goldwise currently charges a 0.50% fee on fractional precious-metal purchases and sales, compared with transaction costs that can reach approximately 4–8% when buying and selling physical coins and bars. Lower trading costs mean the gold-silver ratio does not need to move as dramatically before a potential rotation becomes economically meaningful.

    If investors can hold allocated precious metals and switch between gold and silver at relatively low cost, a greater share of the change in relative value can potentially remain with the investor after the transaction.

    Taxes can create an additional obstacle. In a conventional strategy, selling one metal may trigger a taxable gain, depending on the investor’s circumstances, before the proceeds are used to purchase the other metal.

    Goldwise is currently exploring whether fractional holdings could eventually be converted into physical coins and bars—and potentially exchanged between metals—without requiring investors to sell their position first. If such functionality were introduced, it could potentially make ratio-based strategies more efficient in terms of both transaction costs and taxation, although the actual tax treatment would depend on each investor’s individual circumstances and jurisdiction.

    A move in the ratio from 100 to 50 is large enough to potentially overcome substantial trading friction. Smaller movements are a different matter. When rotations are repeated over many years, transaction costs can become a major component of the overall strategy.

    Lower costs do not create profitable trades by themselves. They simply allow more of the benefit from a successful rotation to remain after the transaction.

    The Risk of Getting the Timing Wrong

    The mathematical example is appealing: exchange gold for silver at a ratio of 100, switch back at 50, and double the amount of gold owned.

    In reality, markets rarely follow such a clean path.

    Imagine an investor converts gold into silver when the ratio reaches 100. Instead of declining, the ratio rises to 120 and eventually remains between 120 and 150 for several years. Silver continues to underperform the gold that was exchanged, leaving the investor in an increasingly uncomfortable position.

    Switching back too early could lock in a loss measured in ounces. Continuing to hold requires patience, while offering no guarantee that the ratio will eventually return to previous levels.

    For that reason, historical ratios are generally more useful as reference points than as automatic buy-or-sell signals.

    Investors may choose to spread conversions across multiple ratio levels rather than moving their entire position at once. Another approach is to maintain a permanent core holding of gold and silver while using only a smaller portion of the portfolio for tactical rotations.

    The underlying objective remains straightforward:

    The goal is not necessarily to accumulate more dollars. It is to finish with more ounces of precious metals than you started with.

  • Bitcoin Holds Near $79,955 as Overbought Conditions Persist

    Bitcoin is moving in a narrow range around $79,955 on the 5-hour chart, holding just above key support while technical indicators point to overbought conditions and weakening momentum. A 5-hour close below $78,138 could undermine the bullish structure and increase downside risk, while a decisive rebound may open the way toward levels above $82,178.

    Tight Consolidation Calls for Caution

    Bitcoin remains positioned slightly above the Ichimoku cloud, which spans roughly $79,236–$79,515. The 20-period SMA at $79,620 is also acting as an important near-term support level.

    Although the broader bullish structure remains intact, momentum indicators are becoming less convincing. The MACD has turned negative, while the Money Flow Index has reached 100, pointing to extremely strong buying pressure and potential buyer exhaustion.

    In short, Bitcoin continues to climb, but the momentum behind the move may be losing strength.

    Bullish Setup Still Valid—But Confirmation Matters

    The bullish outlook remains intact as long as Bitcoin avoids a 5-hour close below $78,138.

    SetupAggressiveConservative
    Entry$79,620$82,200
    Stop Loss$78,500$78,500
    Target 1$82,178$83,601
    Target 2$83,601$85,412
    Target 3$85,412$87,011
    Risk/Reward2.3–5.22.0–3.6
    ConfidenceMediumMedium
    Best Suited ForFast-moving tradersBreakout traders
    • Aggressive traders can look to capitalize on support around $79,620, but the setup carries bull-trap risk if Bitcoin fails to break through the $81,271–$82,178 resistance area.
    • Conservative traders may prefer waiting for a 5-hour close above $82,178, providing stronger confirmation that buyers have regained control.
    Bitcoin price by TradingView

    Key Risks to Watch

    • Potential fake breakout: A brief move above $81,271 followed by a sharp reversal could signal a bull trap. The overbought readings and weak ADX of 12.54 suggest momentum remains limited.
    • Breakdown risk: A 5-hour close below $78,138 would invalidate much of the bullish structure and could accelerate selling toward the $76,000 area.
    • Indecision zone: The $79,620–$81,271 range remains relatively unclear. Traders may want to wait for a stronger volatility or momentum signal before opening fresh positions.

    The Key Takeaway

    A tight consolidation near recent highs combined with weakening momentum can signal an important turning point. When price continues pushing higher while indicators such as MACD and MFI begin to diverge, chasing the move becomes increasingly risky.

    The broader trend may still favor the bulls, but confirmation is becoming more important than simply following price higher.

  • Wall Street Picks of the Week

    Monday – Lumentum Holdings (LITE)

    The story:
    Evercore initiated coverage on Lumentum Holdings with an Outperform rating and a $1,100 price target. The firm argues that while AI-driven demand for computing power continues to surge, a major bottleneck remains: efficiently moving data between processors.

    Lumentum occupies a strategic position in the optical networking supply chain through its expertise in Indium Phosphide laser technology, a critical component for connecting AI compute clusters. Supply remains constrained while demand continues to accelerate, strengthening pricing power for established, vertically integrated suppliers.

    Evercore expects the optical AI market to expand from roughly $18 billion today to more than $90 billion by 2030. Growth is anticipated across server racks, AI clusters, and data-center interconnects, reducing dependence on any single customer. The firm also highlights strong prospects for optical circuit switching, supported by Lumentum’s long-standing proprietary technology.

    The analyst forecasts FY2028 earnings per share of approximately $35, with potential upside toward $50, alongside gross margins expanding to around 54%.

    Tuesday – Sempra Energy (SRE)

    The story:
    Jefferies upgraded Sempra Energy to Buy, viewing the recent selloff as an overreaction to concerns surrounding Texas transmission-project delays and stalled California legislation.

    According to the firm, these concerns have pushed Sempra to trade at a notable valuation discount compared with other regulated utilities. Despite uncertainty around timing, Jefferies believes the company’s long-term Texas infrastructure investment opportunities remain largely intact.

    The analyst also notes that Sempra faces significantly less wildfire-related liability risk than certain California utility peers. While a full valuation recovery may depend on greater regulatory clarity, Jefferies believes investors willing to act before those uncertainties are resolved could benefit from the current discount.

    Wednesday – EyePoint Pharmaceuticals (EYPT)

    The story:
    TD Cowen downgraded EyePoint Pharmaceuticals to Hold and reduced its price target to $4 following disappointing Phase III results from the company’s LUGANO study.

    Management attributed the weak outcome to unfavorable patient randomization, but the analyst remains skeptical that regulators or investors will overlook a failed trial. Even after adjusting the data and excluding a small group of outlier patients, efficacy results appeared underwhelming.

    The report suggests that the FDA is unlikely to place significant weight on retrospective statistical explanations. As a result, EyePoint’s upcoming LUCIA trial now carries heightened importance. Strong results may be required to support the broader development program.

    TD Cowen has removed potential wet AMD revenue from its valuation model, leaving the company’s investment case increasingly dependent on future opportunities in diabetic macular edema.

    Thursday – Covista (CVSA)

    The story:
    Truist downgraded Covista from Buy to Hold while maintaining its $140 price target.

    The firm believes much of the expected turnaround in the Chamberlain segment is already reflected in the share price. While concerns about generative AI disrupting student recruitment appear limited, broader challenges across the education sector may continue to weigh on valuation multiples.

    Truist argues that industry-wide pressures make it difficult to justify further multiple expansion, particularly after the stock’s strong performance. With the recovery story largely priced in, the firm sees fewer catalysts for meaningful upside from current levels.

    Friday – Sonida Senior Living (SNDA)

    The story:
    Baird upgraded Sonida Senior Living to Outperform and assigned a $43 price target, citing favorable long-term demographic trends.

    The firm believes senior-housing operators are positioned to benefit from growing demand driven by an aging population and limited supply growth. Sonida’s recently expanded operating platform is expected to improve efficiency, enhance returns on existing assets, and support future acquisition opportunities.

    Baird also noted that integration efforts following recent transactions appear to be progressing smoothly, creating a foundation for additional external growth. Although leverage remains elevated, the company’s debt maturity schedule is manageable, with no significant maturities until 2028.

    The analyst expects continued operating improvements and organic growth to gradually reduce leverage over the coming years.

  • Weekly Forex Outlook: Gold, Currencies, and Equities Display Mixed Strength Across Global Markets

    Silver

    Silver experienced significant volatility this week, briefly dropping toward the 50-week EMA near $64 before staging a strong recovery. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S.

    Non-Farm Payrolls data, which reinforced inflation concerns, silver managed to rebound sharply. The metal’s resilience in the face of hawkish economic data suggests that underlying buying demand remains strong.

    Gold

    Gold followed a similar path, initially declining before recovering toward the end of the week. While volatility remains elevated, the rebound indicates that bullish sentiment is still present.

    The $4,500 level has emerged as a key pivot point, and a decisive break above this area could open the door for further gains. Investors appear increasingly focused on broader debt concerns rather than interest rate pressures alone.

    EUR/USD

    EUR/USD posted modest gains during the week amid expectations that both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates by 25 basis points.

    The pair remains on track to test the 1.17 area, a level that has repeatedly acted as an important resistance zone. Although the outlook remains cautiously bullish, confidence in a sustained euro rally is still limited.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound traded erratically as markets continued to reassess the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.

    Support for the pound comes from the Bank of England’s relatively higher interest rates, although concerns over the UK’s energy outlook later in the year may create additional uncertainty.

    NASDAQ 100

    The NASDAQ 100 demonstrated impressive resilience, recovering from early-week losses and maintaining its broader upward trajectory.

    Investor sentiment continues to favor buying pullbacks, supported by strong momentum and ongoing confidence in growth-oriented equities.

    USD/MXN

    The U.S. dollar weakened further against the Mexican peso, reinforcing the pair’s bearish trend. Market sentiment remains tilted toward additional downside, with the 16.50 level standing out as a major support zone to watch in the coming weeks.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar ended the week higher, benefiting from expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain a relatively hawkish stance.

    At the same time, traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility of future Federal Reserve rate cuts, providing additional support for the Aussie. The currency may continue to perform well against lower-yielding alternatives such as the Swiss franc.

    USD/JPY

    USD/JPY recorded a sharp weekly decline, although some stabilization emerged near the lows. The 155 level remains a critical support area, and holding above it could encourage a recovery. While U.S. interest rates continue to favor the dollar, speculation surrounding potential policy normalization in Japan has increased pressure on the pair.

  • US Dollar Struggles Below 100: Could Friday’s NFP Trigger a Breakout?

    The US dollar’s struggle is no longer simply about one economic reading or a single Federal Reserve official. The bigger issue is a persistent ceiling. On the daily chart, 100 on the US Dollar Index (DXY) has repeatedly been within reach, yet the greenback has failed to establish a sustained break above it. This week was no different. DXY slipped below the mid-99s and briefly fell into the upper-98s, with the index last trading near 98.99 after losing almost 0.6% during the session.

    The broader 52-week range remains between 95.55 and 101.80, meaning the current move does not represent a collapse. Instead, it highlights repeated rejection at a key technical barrier. The dollar can remain below 100 for an extended period; what it has consistently failed to achieve is a daily close above that threshold. The key question now is whether Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report can provide the catalyst. NFP is unlikely to create an entirely new dollar trend by itself, but it could determine whether the next challenge of 100 turns into a yield-driven breakout or another retreat toward the 98 area.

    The Technical Barrier Markets Continue to Underestimate

    Round numbers carry significant weight in foreign exchange markets because they influence options positioning, systematic trading strategies and investor psychology. The 100 level on DXY is not inherently special, but several factors converge around it: it represents a major psychological threshold, has capped recent recoveries and sits close to several important medium-term moving averages.

    Recent technical readings show DXY struggling beneath its 20-day midpoint and 100-day moving average. Meanwhile, the upper volatility boundary remains positioned around the low-100 area, suggesting that a move beyond that region would represent a meaningful change in the current market structure. RSI is also not signaling an outright collapse. Instead, it reflects a market that has repeatedly struggled to maintain upward momentum. That makes the problem more persistent rather than necessarily more dramatic.

    Remaining below 100 keeps the dollar in a range-bound role: a funding currency during calm markets, a safe-haven asset during periods of stress and, more broadly, a reflection of US interest-rate differentials.

    A decisive daily close above 100, followed by additional gains, would bring the 101–102 region back into focus, an area associated with the June peak. Until that happens, rallies toward 100 remain vulnerable to selling unless Treasury yields provide the dollar with enough support to sustain the advance.

    Friday’s NFP Is the Catalyst, Not the Underlying Story

    The August Employment Situation report is scheduled for release at 08:30 ET on Friday, September 4. Expectations remain relatively subdued. The Wall Street Journal survey consensus calls for nonfarm payrolls to rise by around 53,000 following July’s 23,000 decline, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are projected to increase 0.3% month-over-month, or approximately 3.0% annually.

    However, the potential range of outcomes is wide. Some analysts view July’s weakness as being distorted by seasonal and calendar-related factors and anticipate a rebound toward 65,000–80,000 jobs. Others remain concerned that any improvement could largely reflect education-sector or seasonal noise.

    The latest ADP employment figures were weaker than expected, contributing to Thursday’s dollar decline, while weekly jobless claims have remained relatively contained. Overall, the labor market is showing neither a clear collapse nor a powerful acceleration. That uncertainty creates an unfavorable backdrop for a currency attempting to break through major resistance.

    The dollar’s reaction function remains familiar, although the market is placing different emphasis on the data. A stronger-than-expected report — particularly payroll growth above 80,000, a lower unemployment rate and persistent wage growth — would likely push Treasury yields higher, beginning with the front end of the curve.

    Two-year Treasury yields would probably react first. Expectations surrounding the September Federal Reserve meeting could shift further toward a tighter policy outcome, providing DXY with momentum toward 99.50–100.00.

    But reaching 100 is not the same as breaking it. For a sustainable breakout, the rise in short-term yields would need confirmation from longer-dated Treasuries rather than being offset by weakness at the long end.

    A broadly in-line report, with payroll growth around 40,000–70,000, unemployment at 4.1% and wages close to expectations, would likely leave the dollar trapped within its existing range. Traders could fade the initial move and turn their attention toward the following week’s inflation data.

    The clearest threat to the 100 resistance level would come from a weak employment report. Another negative payroll reading or a noticeable rise in unemployment could remove the prospect of a near-term retest of 100 and push DXY deeper into the 98s.

    Such an outcome would weaken the dollar’s interest-rate support. Two-year yields could decline, while risk assets and gold could benefit. DXY would then likely focus on the mid-98s and the lower part of the recent trading range.

    Wages may ultimately prove just as important as the headline payroll figure. Payroll data can be volatile, whereas average hourly earnings provide the Federal Reserve with a clearer signal about whether labor-market conditions continue to generate inflationary pressure.

    A 0.4% monthly wage increase alongside a strong employment report could create a significant bullish catalyst for the dollar. Conversely, 0.2% wage growth combined with weak payrolls would likely trigger a bond-market rally first, with the dollar reacting afterward.

    Treasury Yields Remain the Dollar’s Most Important Counterpart

    The dollar does not respond to NFP in isolation. Its reaction is heavily influenced by the Treasury market.

    At the beginning of this week, the two-year Treasury yield was around 4.39%, the 10-year near 4.79% and the 30-year around 5.27%. These levels do not indicate a financial crisis, but they do suggest that markets are no longer expecting a simple return to the low-rate environment that dominated much of the post-2010 period.

    Thursday’s dollar weakness coincided with declining Treasury yields, reinforcing one of the clearest short-term relationships in the market: lower nominal and real yields generally weigh on the greenback.

    The opposite dynamic explains why DXY repeatedly approaches 100. Whenever the front end of the Treasury curve begins pricing tighter Federal Reserve policy, the dollar moves higher. But when longer-term yields fail to confirm that tightening — partly because term premium is already elevated — the dollar’s advance tends to stall.

    That creates the central risk for the current setup. The dollar remains supported by US economic exceptionalism and the belief that American markets can continue absorbing enormous government borrowing. At the same time, it is increasingly exposed to the behavior of long-duration assets.

    When Treasury bonds sell off because of stronger growth or inflation, the dollar generally benefits. But when yields rise because markets are struggling to absorb excessive government supply, the currency’s positive response becomes much less reliable.

    Foreign investors holding dollar-denominated assets must consider factors such as cross-currency funding costs and whether 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields adequately compensate them for fiscal risks.

    The 2s10s spread — the difference between the 10-year and two-year yields — and the 10s30s spread will therefore be important around the NFP release.

    A bull-steepening move following weak employment data, where short-term yields decline more rapidly than long-term yields, would normally be negative for the dollar.

    A bear-steepening move after strong employment data, in which long-term yields rise faster than short-term yields, would be more complicated. Higher long-term yields could attract capital toward US assets, but they could also tighten financial conditions and eventually weaken the same labor market that initially supported the dollar.

    Underlying all of this is the enormous volume of Treasury issuance. The post-Labor Day calendar remains heavy, with additional coupon reopenings still needing to be absorbed. The official sector has also been experimenting with larger Treasury buybacks, with expanded operations expected from September 9.

    Buybacks can reduce the amount of duration available to private investors, but they do not eliminate the government’s overall debt burden.

    US Treasury debt outstanding has now moved beyond $40 trillion. Meanwhile, the composition of Treasury demand has shifted toward more price-sensitive investors, including funds, households and relative-value traders, while the traditional price-insensitive official-sector bid has become less dominant.

    This is one reason term premium can become a structural issue rather than merely a cyclical one.

    The Global Sovereign Debt Wave Is Bigger Than the US

    The pressure is not limited to the United States, which helps explain why the dollar’s traditional safe-haven behavior has become less automatic than it was during earlier crises such as 2011 or 2020.

    OECD governments issued record amounts of debt in 2025 and are expected to raise approximately $18 trillion gross during 2026. Refinancing requirements are estimated at around $14 trillion, while net borrowing could approach $4 trillion. Total outstanding OECD sovereign bond debt has already surpassed $60 trillion.

    Japan is dealing with a 10-year government bond yield that has approached 3%. European governments still need to refinance debt accumulated during the pandemic era at significantly higher borrowing costs. Emerging-market governments are also competing for the same international pool of capital.

    When Treasuries, German Bunds, UK Gilts and Japanese government bonds all require heavy refinancing during the same period, the marginal dollar of institutional demand becomes increasingly sensitive to relative yields.

    That is the essence of the current sovereign “avalanche.” It is not necessarily a wave of defaults. Instead, it represents a persistent supply of government duration that must be absorbed by investors at a price that makes the risk worthwhile.

    For the dollar, this creates a two-sided dynamic.

    A genuine global crisis can still drive investors toward Treasuries and therefore support the dollar. But if the problem originates within sovereign bond markets themselves — too much government debt competing for insufficient savings — the dollar no longer automatically benefits.

    The US currency wins only if American assets continue to look relatively attractive and if the Federal Reserve is not simultaneously easing policy while government issuance accelerates.

    That is why the 100 level on DXY has increasingly become a test of whether US yields represent a global capital magnet or a warning signal about fiscal risk.

    Commodities Offer Another Clue About Dollar Direction

    The traditional inverse relationship between the dollar and commodities remains relevant.

    A weaker DXY reduces the effective dollar cost of globally traded commodities. Gold typically benefits from such a move, while industrial metals can also gain if the weaker currency reflects easier monetary conditions rather than deteriorating economic growth.

    Oil is more complicated. It is priced in dollars but is primarily driven by supply, demand, geopolitical developments and spare capacity. A supply shock can push oil higher even while the dollar appreciates.

    The likely relationships around Friday’s payroll report are relatively straightforward.

    A weak NFP reading could pressure the dollar, support gold and boost metals if falling real yields provide additional assistance.

    A strong employment report could lift DXY toward 100 and temporarily weigh on gold as markets price a more restrictive Federal Reserve stance.

    Oil, however, will probably focus more heavily on the growth implications of the employment report and developments in the Middle East than on the dollar alone.

    Commodities can subsequently feed back into the currency through inflation expectations. A weaker dollar that simultaneously pushes oil and import prices higher while wage growth remains firm could strengthen expectations for another challenge of 100.

    Conversely, if the dollar falls alongside declining real yields and stable oil prices, the move could reinforce the broader bearish pressure on DXY.

    The wage component of Friday’s report therefore acts as the key link between these two scenarios.

    The Dollar’s Current Risk Profile

    DXY should be viewed as a hybrid asset rather than a straightforward risk-off trade.

    It remains an important funding currency for global carry strategies. When volatility is low and the Federal Reserve is holding rates steady, investors can borrow or short the dollar to finance positions elsewhere.

    That makes the 100 region particularly crowded for dollar bulls. Late buyers risk entering just as upside momentum is becoming exhausted, leaving the market vulnerable to a disappointing economic report.

    The dollar is also a currency driven by policy divergence. If Friday’s data pushes the Federal Reserve toward tighter policy while Europe and Japan remain constrained by their own fiscal and bond-market pressures, the dollar could strengthen even against a backdrop of elevated US fiscal concerns.

    Policy divergence remains one of the strongest bullish arguments for DXY below 100.

    But the dollar is no longer viewed as an unquestioned fiscal safe haven. Markets increasingly distinguish between the unparalleled depth of US financial markets and the country’s unusually large fiscal deficit.

    Market depth can keep the dollar strong during a sudden crisis. It does not necessarily prevent a gradual decline when government issuance becomes the dominant theme.

    Positioning ahead of NFP should therefore account for this mixed character.

    Buying a pre-release move toward 99.80 risks paying a premium for a level that has repeatedly rejected the dollar. At the same time, aggressively selling every rebound toward 99.50 without a clear strategy below 98.70 ignores the possibility that strong wage data could produce a rapid squeeze higher.

    A more disciplined approach is to preserve optionality around the 100 level or wait for the initial 15-minute range following the 08:30 ET release to break before committing to the direction.

    What Could Actually Change the Technical Picture?

    Three developments would matter most.

    First, NFP and wage growth would need to push two-year Treasury yields above their recent highs and keep them there into the following week’s inflation data. That would provide the strongest foundation for another attempt at 100.

    Second, Treasury auctions would need to show signs of deteriorating demand, such as weaker indirect participation, while markets simultaneously price a more restrictive Federal Reserve. That combination could cause the dollar rally to fail at 100 because rising yields would be viewed as compensation for fiscal risk rather than evidence of stronger monetary support.

    Third, a genuine global duration sell-off could emerge, with Japanese government bonds, UK Gilts and US Treasuries all falling together and overwhelming the traditional safe-haven demand for dollars.

    That would represent the broader sovereign-debt “avalanche” scenario. It would not require a dramatic crisis headline. It could simply result from another quarter in which enormous government bond issuance meets a smaller pool of official-sector demand.

    Until one of these catalysts materializes, the daily DXY chart remains clear.

    100 is still the key barrier.

    The recent 98.99 close reinforces the market’s refusal to accept higher levels. Friday’s NFP report is unlikely to permanently settle the issue, but it could determine whether the dollar’s next encounter with 100 finally produces a breakout — or another rejection.

  • 5 Stocks to Consider if a Market Pullback Creates Better Buying Opportunities

    • Nvidia’s post-earnings surge may have turned into a false breakout, making the 70-session moving average a critical support level.
    • Microsoft and Palantir remain in established 70-session uptrends, but bearish RSI divergences could point to further downside.
    • Nio is nearing major support around $3.70, while the S&P 500 could retreat toward 7,520 if current resistance remains intact.

    US equities are showing signs of weakness following a strong rally, although the current pullback remains relatively contained. The main question now is whether this decline represents a healthy pause within the broader uptrend or the beginning of a deeper correction.

    Five stocks stand out as their charts approach important technical levels: Nvidia, Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle and Nio. Each has a different setup, but all five are reaching points where the next price move could offer a clearer indication of their medium- and long-term direction.

    For investors looking to explore company fundamentals, valuations and potential investment opportunities in greater detail, InvestingPro is currently offering discounts of up to 50%.

    1. Nvidia’s Post-Earnings Surge Could Be a False Breakout

    Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) remains one of the key stocks to monitor following its latest earnings release.

    Ahead of the results, two technical areas were considered particularly important. The first was the upside gap, with a sustained move above this zone potentially paving the way toward fresh record highs. The second was the 70-session moving average, which had recently provided important support.

    Nvidia initially delivered the bullish move investors were watching for. On Thursday, shares jumped more than 8% and moved into the gap area, eventually closing above it.

    The following session, however, painted a very different picture. Nvidia dropped more than 4.5%, falling back into the upside gap created during Thursday’s rally.

    This raises the possibility that the previous session’s breakout was a false move rather than the beginning of another sustained advance.

    The 70-session moving average is now the key level to watch. As long as Nvidia remains above this average, its broader bullish structure can remain intact. A decisive move below it, however, would represent a more serious technical warning.

    The psychology surrounding the recent rally is also worth considering. Investors who entered after Nvidia’s sharp post-earnings surge may now be holding positions at significantly higher prices. If the stock subsequently breaks below its 70-session average, those traders could begin closing positions, potentially turning the failed breakout into a broader distribution phase.

    The hourly chart provides another important short-term reference point. Nvidia is currently trading above its 200-session extended moving average, which has previously acted as support.

    A break below that hourly average could therefore increase the risk of a deeper decline and eventually put the daily 70-session moving average under pressure.

    2. Microsoft’s Support Level Could Determine Its Next Direction

    Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) continues to display a relatively constructive technical structure, although some warning signals have emerged.

    The stock rallied strongly after its results before pulling back toward the $477 area and subsequently recovering. During the latest advance, however, price action and the RSI began to diverge.

    The RSI has remained above 70 during the recent rally, highlighting the strength of the underlying momentum.

    For now, the key level is the $477 support area. If Microsoft can continue consolidating above this zone, the sideways movement could simply allow the 70-session moving average to catch up with the share price.

    That moving average continues to slope upward and has already moved above the 200-session average, generally viewed as a bullish technical development.

    A correction toward the 70-session average would therefore not necessarily invalidate the broader uptrend. If buyers defend the average, Microsoft could use the pullback to establish another base before making another attempt at record highs.

    The technical picture would become more concerning if the 70-session average fails. Combined with the existing bearish RSI divergence, such a break could indicate that the latest rally is losing momentum.

    Microsoft’s longer-term chart also highlights the significance of this area. The stock previously experienced a substantial correction following a price-RSI divergence, but ultimately found support around $370 before staging a strong recovery.

    With Microsoft once again trading near its highs, the key question is whether the current structure is developing into a potential double top or simply another consolidation phase before an eventual breakout.

    Holding the 70-session average would favor the bullish scenario. A break below it could instead prolong the broader sideways pattern that has been developing since early 2024.

    3. Palantir Shows a Similar Bearish Warning

    Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) is displaying a technical setup that closely resembles Microsoft’s.

    The stock experienced several major corrections toward the end of last year before eventually falling toward roughly $110. From that point, however, Palantir staged an impressive recovery.

    The latest rally has carried the stock back toward the highs recorded at the end of 2025. Yet, similar to Microsoft, Palantir has developed a bearish divergence between price and RSI during this advance.

    Once again, the 70-session moving average is the level that could determine what happens next.

    The average has crossed above the 200-session moving average, providing a positive technical signal that typically supports the continuation of an uptrend over the coming weeks or months.

    A correction would therefore not necessarily be bearish by itself. If Palantir pulls back and finds support at the 70-session average, the broader bullish structure could remain intact.

    Under that scenario, the stock could eventually retest the $200 area, with a renewed move in the RSI above 70 potentially confirming a return of strong momentum.

    The risk increases significantly if the 70-session average breaks. A failure of the average shortly after its bullish crossover with the 200-session line could indicate that the positive signal has failed.

    That could trigger a substantially deeper correction and raise the possibility that the latest rally was more of a distribution phase than the start of another sustained advance.

    4. Oracle Needs to Defend the $135-$136 Area

    Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) currently has a more fragile technical setup than Microsoft or Palantir.

    The stock has undergone a significant correction since the end of last year and recently moved into an important support region around the 70-session moving average and the $137-$140 area.

    This zone is particularly significant because it also corresponds with support established early last year.

    Oracle subsequently bounced from around $118, another level that had previously provided support in April 2025. However, the recovery has so far encountered resistance at the 70-session moving average.

    That represents a warning sign.

    When a stock has already suffered a substantial decline, investors would generally want to see strong buying interest emerge around major support. The fact that Oracle is instead encountering resistance at the 70-session average suggests demand remains relatively weak.

    For now, the stock is holding above roughly $136, while the $135-$136 region represents the key short-term support zone.

    A renewed break below $135-$136 would increase the risk of another leg lower and could strengthen the case for the potential head-and-shoulders pattern that has been developing.

    A more bullish scenario would require Oracle to reclaim the 70-session moving average and move sufficiently above it for the average to regain a positive slope.

    A subsequent move above the 200-session moving average would provide an even stronger indication that a new uptrend could be forming.

    Until those conditions are met, Oracle’s technical outlook remains cautious.

    5. Nio Is Approaching Major $3.70 Support

    Nio (NYSE: NIO) may receive less attention than some of the other names on the list, but its current chart is becoming increasingly interesting because of a potential rounded-bottom formation.

    The monthly chart offers some evidence of this structure, while the weekly timeframe provides a clearer picture. The decline around April 2025 could represent the midpoint of a rounded bottom that has been developing over an extended period.

    Nio is now approaching an important support zone around $3.70. This level is crucial if the rounded-bottom thesis is to remain valid. The stock would need to hold this area and eventually generate a meaningful rebound.

    The immediate concern is the strength of the recent selling. Nio declined roughly 4% in the previous session and another 4% in the latest move under discussion.

    The RSI has also fallen well below 30, indicating significant downside momentum.

    While an oversold RSI can create the conditions for a rebound, it does not by itself confirm that selling pressure has ended.

    Trading volume is another factor worth watching. Heavy volume during an early-stage selloff can signal continued distribution and additional downside. However, heavy volume around major support can have a different implication if the price subsequently stabilizes, potentially indicating that shares are moving from short-term sellers to longer-term buyers.

    At this stage, however, Nio has yet to produce a confirmed bullish signal.

    The next sequence of price action will therefore be critical. A rebound from around $3.70, followed by another pullback that successfully holds the same support and produces a bullish RSI divergence, would strengthen the rounded-bottom thesis.

    A subsequent break above the rebound high could then provide confirmation of the pattern.

    Because rounded bottoms can take years to develop, this potential formation should be viewed from a long-term perspective. In Nio’s case, the structure could already extend back roughly three years to late 2023.

    The major resistance level to watch is around $7.16.

    S&P 500 Could Retreat Toward 7,520

    The broader market is also showing signs of a relatively modest correction.

    The S&P 500 is attempting to recover, but the rebound has reached the area of the gap created during the previous session. On the hourly chart, the 70-session moving average is currently acting as resistance.

    If the index manages to reclaim that average, the odds of another move higher and a retest of the recent highs would improve.

    If resistance continues to hold, however, the next important downside target is around 7,520, where the 70-session moving average converges with a former declining trendline.

    The broader market’s risk gauge is not yet signaling a major increase in fear. The BX has also rebounded toward its 70-session moving average and encountered resistance there, while the S&P 500’s recovery has kept the indicator relatively subdued.

    This suggests that, for now, the market has not entered a major fear-driven selloff.

    The Pullback Could Create Opportunities, but Confirmation Is Key

    The common theme across these stocks is the growing importance of technical support and resistance as the market moves through its current correction.

    Nvidia needs to defend its 70-session moving average following what could prove to be a false breakout. Microsoft and Palantir remain in stronger technical positions, but both need to hold their respective moving averages if their bearish RSI divergences lead to deeper pullbacks.

    Oracle remains more vulnerable unless it can reclaim its 70-session average, while Nio is approaching the critical $3.70 support zone that could determine whether its potential rounded-bottom formation remains valid.

    For investors, the current environment favors patience over emotional reactions to short-term volatility.

    A market correction can create attractive entry opportunities, but the most important factor is confirmation. Investors should look for evidence that buyers are actually returning before assuming that a decline has reached its bottom.

  • Crypto Market Update: Bitcoin Holds Steady Alongside Gold as ARB and PYTH Extend Gains

    • Bitcoin remains above $77,000, although momentum indicators suggest that bullish pressure is beginning to fade.
    • Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with Gold has risen to around 50%, reinforcing its appeal as a hedge against currency debasement.
    • Arbitrum and Pyth Network have posted double-digit gains over the past 24 hours, ranking among the crypto market’s strongest performers.

    Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $77,000 on Thursday, although bullish momentum is showing signs of moderation as its 90-day correlation with Gold approaches 50%. Meanwhile, Arbitrum (ARB) and Pyth Network (PYTH) have posted double-digit gains over the past 24 hours, making them among the market’s strongest-performing cryptocurrencies.

    Bitcoin increasingly moves in line with Gold

    Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the NASDAQ has fallen to around 33%, down from nearly 60%, while its correlation with Gold has climbed to approximately 50%. Rising US government debt, now above $40 trillion, persistent fiscal deficits and elevated bond yields are encouraging investors to seek assets that can provide protection against currency debasement, including Bitcoin and Gold.

    The recent decision to double long-maturity Treasury buyback operations from $2 billion to $4 billion could help reduce yields in the near term. However, the continued expansion of government debt remains a longer-term concern. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s growing relationship with Gold strengthens the argument for the cryptocurrency as a scarce digital asset with potential long-term value.

    Bitcoin bulls pause as momentum cools

    Bitcoin is trading near $77,328 at the time of writing on Thursday. The short-term outlook remains constructive, with BTC holding comfortably above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), positioned between approximately $69,400 and $72,400.

    The cryptocurrency is also above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $75,233, calculated from the $97,924 to $57,800 decline, maintaining a broadly bullish technical structure.

    Bitcoin price by TradingView

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 65, indicating solid momentum, although it has eased from overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has moved below its signal line, suggesting that Bitcoin could enter a period of consolidation or take a temporary pause.

    On the upside, the first major resistance stands at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $87,476. Beyond that, attention would turn toward the cycle high around $97,924.

    On the downside, $75,233 represents the first key support. Below this level, BTC could find stronger demand around the EMA cluster, including the 200-day EMA at $72,365, the 50-day EMA at $70,574 and the 100-day EMA at $69,395. This area continues to support the broader bullish structure.

    Arbitrum and Pyth Network maintain strong gains

    Arbitrum has gained more than 5% on Thursday after surging approximately 12% the previous day. ARB maintains a bullish short-term setup, with its price trading above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs at $0.0906, $0.0929 and $0.1164, respectively.

    The four-day recovery is now testing the bullish breakout above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1272, measured from $0.1495 to $0.0705. A sustained breakout above this level could open the way toward the $0.1495 swing high.

    Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the MACD and signal line trending higher. However, the RSI at 76 indicates overbought conditions, raising the possibility of a short-term slowdown.

    The 200-day EMA around $0.1164 provides the first layer of support, followed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1026.

    ARBUSD price by TradingView

    Pyth Network has advanced around 3% on Thursday, adding to its 10% gain from the previous session. PYTH has now extended its recovery for four consecutive days and remains well above the 200-day EMA at $0.0499. The 50- and 100-day EMAs at $0.0455 and $0.0446, respectively, further reinforce the bullish technical structure.

    The previously broken descending resistance trendline has turned into support near $0.0552, suggesting that buyers have absorbed the earlier selling pressure. On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the May 9 high of $0.0631, followed by the January 6 high at $0.0737.

    The RSI near 75 places PYTH in overbought territory, although the MACD has rebounded from its signal line and continues to trend higher, indicating that bullish momentum remains favorable in the near term.

    The former trendline breakout near $0.0552 is the first support level to watch, followed by the 200-day EMA at $0.0499. A deeper correction toward these levels would provide an important test of the sustainability of PYTH’s current uptrend.

  • US Dollar Index Slips as Fed’s Waller Suggests Holding Rates Steady

    • The US Dollar Index remains under pressure after Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested a possible pause in interest rate increases, diverging from Kevin Warsh’s more hawkish stance.
    • Following Waller’s comments, market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September dropped to 50.2%.
    • Traders are now focused on the US August Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is forecast to show 56,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, remains under pressure for a third straight session, trading near 99.00 during Asian trading hours on Friday.

    The Greenback weakened after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that he would favor keeping interest rates unchanged at the September policy meeting, assuming upcoming inflation figures do not deliver any major surprises.

    Waller’s relatively dovish stance contrasts with the more hawkish tone struck by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh just one week earlier. Following Waller’s remarks, expectations for a September rate hike declined sharply, with the CME FedWatch Tool putting the probability at 50.2%, down from 63.2% a day earlier.

    Market attention is now turning to the US August employment report, which could provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls to rise by 56,000, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold at 4.1%.

    Meanwhile, a stronger Japanese Yen is adding to the Dollar’s downside pressure. Traders are closely monitoring the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening in the currency market while also increasing bets on potentially tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan later this year.

    Yen extends gains as intervention risks increase

    Scotiabank strategists noted the Yen’s unusually strong performance, highlighting a 1.5% gain against the US Dollar that builds on Wednesday’s significant advance. The sharp appreciation has revived speculation that Japanese authorities could intervene to prevent excessive Yen strength or further volatility in the USD/JPY pair.

    Technical Analysis: DXY remains under bearish pressure

    On the daily chart, the US Dollar Index is trading around 98.98, maintaining a bearish short-term outlook below both the 9-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which have shifted into resistance.

    DXY chart by TradingView

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level at around 40, indicating that selling pressure is still present despite the recent slowdown in the decline. At the same time, the weakening FXS Fed Sentiment Index points to reduced support for the US Dollar from expectations surrounding Fed policy.

    Initial resistance is seen around 99.26, corresponding to the 9-period EMA, while the 50-period EMA near 99.79 creates a stronger resistance zone. A sustained daily close above these moving averages would help reduce the current bearish bias. Until then, the DXY remains exposed to further declines toward previous daily-chart lows.

  • Japanese Yen Holds Near August Peaks as US Dollar Stays Under Pressure Ahead of NFP Report

    • USD/JPY remains under pressure near its lowest level in a month.
    • Softer expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening and lower US Treasury yields continue to weigh on the US Dollar.
    • Rising expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes, together with speculation of official intervention, are providing support for the Japanese Yen.

    The USD/JPY pair traded in a narrow range during Friday’s Asian session, hovering around 155.75 after recent declines. Although little changed on the day, the pair remains close to its August low and is on track for a significant weekly loss as investors await the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

    Market participants are closely monitoring the employment data for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. With expectations for a September rate increase having eased, the report could shape the outlook for US interest rates and influence near-term Dollar performance. Until then, traders may remain cautious about betting on a sustained recovery in USD/JPY.

    The US Dollar weakened after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller noted that inflation appears to be moderating, increasing the likelihood that policymakers could leave interest rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The comments pushed US bond yields lower and dragged the Dollar to its weakest level in more than a week.

    Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen continues to benefit from growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy further. Markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 17–18 BoJ meeting, with another increase potentially following in December. Expectations strengthened after BoJ board member Hajime Takata suggested the central bank should take a more flexible approach to rate hikes rather than adhering to a fixed semi-annual schedule. Combined with speculation of currency market intervention, these factors continue to support the Yen and limit upside potential for USD/JPY.

    USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Bears Remain in Control Below Key Resistance

    4-Hour Chart Analysis

    From a technical perspective, USD/JPY continues to trade with a bearish bias after failing to sustain a move above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart earlier this week. The rejection from this key trend indicator suggests that sellers remain firmly in control of the market.

    USDJPY chart by TradingView

    A decisive break below the August swing low in the 155.25–155.20 area could act as a fresh bearish signal, potentially attracting additional selling pressure. Such a move may push the pair below the psychological 155.00 level and extend the corrective decline from its recent multi-decade peak.

    Key Support Levels

    • 155.25–155.20 – August swing low
    • 155.00 – Psychological support
    • 154.50 – Next potential downside target
    • 154.00 – Major support zone

    Key Resistance Levels

    • 200-period SMA (4H) – Immediate resistance
    • 160.00 – Major psychological barrier

    For bullish momentum to return, USD/JPY would need to reclaim and hold above the 200-period SMA. A sustained move beyond the 160.00 level would be required to significantly reduce the current downside pressure and signal a broader shift in market sentiment.

    Overall, the technical structure continues to favor sellers, with downside risks remaining elevated as long as the pair trades below key resistance levels.

  • British Pound Holds Near Three-Week Low as Fed Rate-Cut Bets and Iran Tensions Bolster the US Dollar

    • GBP/USD bulls remain cautious as expectations for Fed policy help curb the dollar’s decline following weak US ADP employment data.
    • Rising US-Iran tensions continue to support the safe-haven US dollar, keeping upward pressure on GBP/USD limited.
    • Traders await the US ISM Services PMI for fresh direction ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

    The GBP/USD pair remains below the key 1.3500 level during Thursday’s Asian session, consolidating near a three-week low reached in the previous session.

    The US Dollar (USD) steadies after retreating the day before, supported by expectations for tighter Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Markets have increased bets that the Fed could raise interest rates this month following hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh last Friday. Rising energy prices also add to inflation concerns, strengthening the case for tighter monetary policy and providing support for the USD, which weighs on GBP/USD.

    At the same time, US-Iran tensions have intensified after fresh US strikes on Iranian targets were followed by retaliatory drone and missile attacks from Tehran across the Gulf. Persistent confrontations around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping geopolitical risks elevated and further boosting demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. However, weaker US Treasury yields are preventing USD buyers from making aggressive moves and helping limit downside pressure on GBP/USD.

    Investors now await the US ISM Services PMI for fresh trading signals, while Friday’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report remains the main focus. Further developments in the Middle East could also drive volatility across financial markets, influencing USD movements and creating short-term trading opportunities in GBP/USD.

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    GBPUSD chart by TradingView

    On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD is trading near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and remains above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August advance. A decisive break below this level could expose the pair to deeper Fibonacci support at 1.3425 and 1.3357, where buyers may attempt to defend the broader bullish structure.

    On the upside, immediate resistance stands at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 1.3521, followed by the 23.6% level at 1.3580. Further gains could bring the cycle-high resistance around 1.3676 into focus.

  • WTI Oil Trades Near Six-Week Peak Amid Rising Middle East Tensions

    • WTI crude prices hover near their highest level since July 24 as Middle East tensions heighten supply concerns.
    • US crude inventories decline by 4.45 million barrels, significantly surpassing expectations.
    • WTI remains above key moving averages, while resistance between $90 and $92 limits near-term upside.

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil experienced choppy trading on Wednesday as rising tensions in the Middle East kept volatility high and supported a stronger geopolitical risk premium. WTI was trading near $89.70 per barrel after climbing to an intraday peak of $90.78, its highest level since July 24.

    The latest boost to oil prices came after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported that two oil tankers hit naval mines while attempting to pass through the waterway. The IRGC said the vessels were disabled and their crews evacuated after allegedly ignoring warnings about using what authorities called an “illegal route.”

    Oil also received support from a sharper-than-expected decline in US crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 4.45-million-barrel draw last week, far exceeding forecasts for a 1.1-million-barrel decline and reversing the previous week’s 95,000-barrel increase.

    However, further gains may remain limited as oil flows through the Persian Gulf continue to recover. Brown Brothers Harriman strategists pointed to Goldman Sachs estimates showing regional oil exports have rebounded to around two-thirds of their pre-war level of 20 million barrels per day. US Energy Secretary estimates similarly indicate that about 8 million barrels per day are currently moving through the Strait of Hormuz, while another 4–5 million barrels are being transported through alternative pipelines. This suggests supply disruptions are gradually easing despite continued geopolitical risks.

    Markets now turn to Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting. Reuters reported that the alliance is expected to maintain its existing oil production policy for October, citing three sources familiar with the discussions.

    Technical Analysis

    WTI maintains a broadly constructive outlook on the daily chart, trading well above its 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Nevertheless, the $90–$92 area remains a major resistance zone that could restrict further gains in the near term.

    WTI chart by TradingView

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 64, while the MACD remains positive, indicating continued upward momentum. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is near 16, suggesting that the current bullish trend lacks strong conviction.

    A decisive move above $92 could pave the way toward $95 and potentially the psychological $100 level. On the downside, the 100-day SMA around $85 provides the first key support. A sustained break below this level could bring the 200-day SMA near $77 into focus, while the $67–$65 area would become relevant if both moving-average supports fail.

  • Gold Gains as Yen Intervention Bets Pressure the US Dollar

    • Gold moves higher as a weaker US Dollar offsets the impact of elevated Treasury yields.
    • Speculation over possible Yen intervention weighs on the Greenback despite strong bond yields.
    • Concerns about potential strikes on Iran keep Oil near $90, reinforcing inflation pressures.

    Gold (XAU/USD) surged more than 1% on Wednesday, supported by a weaker US Dollar amid speculation that Japanese authorities may have stepped into currency markets to strengthen the Japanese Yen (JPY). Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remained elevated despite disappointing US employment data. At the time of writing, gold was trading around $4,373.

    The Yen gained broadly against major currencies, fueling market chatter about a possible FX intervention or rate-check operation by Japanese officials. However, authorities have not confirmed any such actions.

    Gold Benefits from Dollar Weakness Despite Higher Yields

    The precious metal continued to attract buyers even as the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.79%, largely unchanged from Tuesday’s close. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.06% to 99.59.

    Adding to market uncertainty, US President Donald Trump stated that Washington is “prepared to do another attack on Iran,” although he suggested any military action would not last long. His comments helped extend gains in oil markets, with WTI crude edging up to $90.86 per barrel.

    Despite rising energy prices, Treasury yields showed little reaction, as investors viewed higher oil costs as a factor that could keep inflation elevated and support higher interest rates for longer.

    The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book indicated modest growth in economic activity since early July, with slight improvements in employment conditions. Inflation pressures remained present, as prices increased across eight Fed districts.

    Labor market data released Wednesday showed private-sector hiring slowed more than expected in August. According to the ADP Employment Report, payrolls rose by just 38,000, below the 47,000 forecast and down from July’s 46,000 increase.

    New York Fed President John Williams noted that elevated bond yields reflect the strength of the US economy rather than rising inflation expectations. He emphasized that inflation remains under control and that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned to guide inflation back toward the Fed’s 2% target.

    Market participants are now focused on upcoming US economic releases, including the ISM Services PMI and Friday’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report.

    Gold Technical Outlook: Focus Turns to $4,400

    Gold has climbed back above the $4,300 level and regained the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,361, a development that could support additional upside. However, near-term momentum indicators still suggest caution.

    XAUUSD chart by TradingView

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral 50 mark, signaling that sellers continue to hold a slight advantage and that downside risks have not completely faded.

    If bearish pressure resumes, initial support is seen at $4,300, followed by the 50-day SMA around $4,223. A deeper decline could expose the key $4,200 support zone.

    On the upside, a move above $4,400 would strengthen the bullish case and open the door toward $4,450, followed by the psychologically important $4,500 level. A sustained breakout beyond that area could target the 200-day SMA near $4,531 and potentially extend toward $4,600.

  • US Dollar Weakness Tests Whether Warsh’s Hawkish Outlook Can Hold

    The US dollar has opened September under pressure, surrendering around half of the gains sparked by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks on Friday. At first glance, this may suggest that investors are starting to scale back expectations for tighter Fed policy. However, the rates market is sending a somewhat different signal.

    The front end of the US yield curve remains substantially repriced. Two-year SOFR rates are holding above 4.20%, more than 10 basis points above pre-Warsh levels, while markets are pricing in roughly 16 basis points of tightening for September and around 37 basis points through the end of the year. Put simply, the dollar has weakened even though expectations for Fed tightening have remained largely intact.

    That disconnect is becoming the central theme for FX markets this week.

    Dollar Weakens Despite Higher Rate Expectations

    All G10 currencies strengthened against the dollar on Monday, despite continued hawkish pricing in the US front end.

    Under normal circumstances, that setup would favor the greenback. Higher anticipated US interest rates increase the relative appeal of dollar-denominated assets and can encourage capital inflows into the currency.

    Instead, investors appear increasingly focused on the longer end of the Treasury curve.

    Long-term US yields have climbed, partly alongside renewed oil-price gains following another round of strikes between the US and Iran. Rather than interpreting higher yields simply as evidence of stronger returns on US assets, currency markets appear to be viewing the move through the lens of fiscal concerns.

    That is important because investors are becoming increasingly alert to the possibility of Treasury measures aimed at containing borrowing costs.

    Fiscal Risks Complicate the Dollar’s Bullish Case

    The latest market reaction indicates that the so-called debasement trade remains relevant.

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s earlier push toward larger Treasury buybacks appears to have continued influencing investor thinking. If markets believe that a sustained rise in long-term yields could eventually prompt stronger Treasury intervention, then higher yields may not automatically translate into dollar gains.

    Instead, they could intensify concerns about fiscal sustainability, government debt management and the currency’s longer-term purchasing power.

    This has created a notable split across the US yield curve.

    The front end suggests the Fed could maintain a tighter stance, providing fundamental support for the dollar.

    The long end is highlighting fiscal and Treasury-management risks, limiting that support.

    For dollar bulls, this divergence is becoming increasingly important. The Fed’s hawkish repricing has so far failed to fully overcome the fiscal-risk premium weighing on the currency.

    US Data Will Determine Whether the Dollar Pullback Deepens

    Despite Monday’s decline, it may still be too early to aggressively bet against the dollar.

    Following Warsh’s comments, investors would likely need a series of significantly weaker US economic reports before expectations surrounding the September 16 FOMC meeting are materially reversed.

    The data sequence begins with ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS, followed by ADP employment, ISM Services, and ultimately Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

    Current expectations point to a relatively resilient US economy.

    ISM Manufacturing is projected to remain above 55, while services activity is expected to stabilise. ADP employment growth of roughly 40,000 would indicate softness but may not be sufficient to fundamentally alter the Fed outlook. Likewise, payroll growth around 65,000 would suggest a cooling labor market rather than an outright collapse.

    That distinction is crucial.

    A moderate slowdown alone is unlikely to erase Warsh’s hawkish message. For the dollar’s decline to evolve into a more durable trend, several economic indicators would likely need to weaken simultaneously and force markets to substantially reduce expectations for September tightening.

    DXY: 100 Is Still the Critical Barrier

    Technically, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 99.60, after recovering from August lows around 98.60 but failing so far to regain the psychologically significant 100.00 level.

    DXY chart by TradingView

    The technical picture highlights the key battle. The 100.00–100.15 zone has emerged as important resistance following August’s breakdown. A decisive move above this area would indicate that the post-Warsh repricing is beginning to translate back into the FX market and would strengthen the argument for another advance in the dollar.

    For now, DXY remains below that threshold.

    The dollar therefore finds itself at an interesting crossroads: monetary-policy expectations remain supportive, but price action has yet to validate that bullish outlook.

    Opening Bell View

    The key question this week is not simply whether upcoming US data beats or misses expectations. Instead, investors need to determine whether the economic numbers are weak enough to reverse the hawkish repricing already reflected in short-term interest rates.

    If manufacturing, services and labor-market data remain broadly resilient, the front-end rates narrative should continue supporting the dollar, potentially allowing DXY to make another attempt at 100.00. Seasonal trends in September have also historically provided some support for the greenback.

    Conversely, if the US economy delivers a series of significant downside surprises and markets begin removing expectations for September tightening, the current dollar pullback would gain a much stronger fundamental basis.

    For now, the clearest interpretation is that the dollar’s correction has moved further than the shift in Fed expectations would suggest.

    The next move therefore depends heavily on the US data. Until short-term rates begin moving lower alongside the dollar, the decline below 100 appears more like a test of the hawkish Fed narrative than a confirmed reversal of it.

  • Weak September Seasonality Gives Way to Stronger Midterm Trends

    Stocks have staged an impressive recovery from their spring lows, largely brushing aside concerns about economic growth, inflation, elevated interest rates, the impact of artificial intelligence (AI), geopolitical risks, and ongoing policy uncertainty. However, as September begins, equities are moving into what has historically been their weakest month of the year from a seasonal perspective.

    Why does seasonality matter in the first place? Markets are influenced by several recurring calendar-based factors, including tax-driven selling, mutual fund fiscal year-ends, corporate share buyback periods, reduced summer liquidity, and the regular cadence of earnings seasons. These forces can create patterns that repeat over time. While they are far from reliable forecasts, persistent behavioral trends can provide investors with a useful indication of the market’s typical direction.

    September has consistently been a weak period for equities. Since 1950, it has been the only month to post a negative average return for the S&P 500, at approximately -0.6%, while the index has ended September higher less than half of the time. The weakness has been even more evident over the past five and 10 years, reinforcing the case for seasonal caution. Before 1957, the data is based on the predecessor S&P 90 index. Historical performance, however, does not guarantee future results.

    It might seem reasonable to expect a midterm election year to provide some relief, but historical data offers little evidence of that. September during midterm years has produced an average return of roughly -0.8%, virtually the same as September in non-election years and broadly in line with the long-term seasonal pattern. In other words, September has generally been a weak month regardless of the political cycle. The most recent midterm September, in 2022, was particularly difficult, with the S&P 500 falling more than 9% as investors worried about aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, persistent inflation, rising Treasury yields, and growing recession risks.

    The more positive takeaway from the midterm cycle comes after September. Historically, October has been the strongest month for stocks during midterm years, delivering an average return of nearly 3.0%, while November has averaged about 2.7%. Both figures are substantially stronger than their counterparts during non-midterm years. Together, October through December have historically represented the strongest three-month period of the entire four-year presidential cycle.

    This seasonal improvement may reflect declining political uncertainty as markets begin to gain greater clarity around the election outlook. The earlier rebound typically seen in October during midterm years, compared with the November recovery often observed during presidential election years, may stem from the narrower range of potential outcomes. Investors can begin pricing in reduced uncertainty before the midterm vote, whereas presidential elections generally carry greater market significance and may encourage investors to wait for the actual result.

    Importantly, the historical strength following September in midterm years has not been dependent on which political party controls the White House. Markets have generally reacted more positively to the reduction in uncertainty than to the specific election outcome. Since 1950, stocks have risen during the year following every midterm election—19 consecutive instances—with an average gain of nearly 15%.

    That track record is notable, although every market cycle is different and historical patterns are not guarantees. Still, the tendency for equities to strengthen once the midterm elections are behind them is an important factor for investors to consider.

    At the same time, seasonal and election-cycle trends should be viewed as historical averages rather than precise forecasts. The relatively small sample of roughly 75 observations since 1950 also means that a single unusually strong or weak year can materially influence the results. Ultimately, stock prices remain driven by corporate earnings, economic conditions, monetary policy, valuations, and investor sentiment.

    With the Federal Reserve, economic growth, and corporate earnings continuing to play the dominant roles, seasonality should therefore be considered one component of a broader investment framework rather than a standalone trading signal. Seasonal trends can provide useful context alongside fundamentals, valuations, and the macroeconomic environment, but they should not be treated as the primary catalyst for investment decisions.

    Conclusion and Asset Allocation Views

    September has historically been the weakest month for U.S. equities, and midterm election years have followed a similar pattern. As a result, some seasonal volatility over the coming weeks would not be surprising. History suggests, however, that September weakness can often prove temporary, particularly as markets approach the historically stronger portion of the midterm cycle and the typically favorable year that follows.

    We remain constructive on the outlook for the fourth quarter, supported by an improving macroeconomic backdrop and continued earnings growth. From a tactical standpoint, any seasonal or election-related pullback could therefore represent an opportunity to reassess and potentially adjust positioning rather than an automatic reason to adopt a more defensive stance.

  • War Resurges, Gold Slides: The Warning Sign Traders Can’t Ignore

    Friday’s breakdown below the rising support line marked the first major warning for gold, while Monday’s close confirmed the second as prices settled below the $4,500 level.

    Gold ended Monday at $4,481.50 and has since slipped toward $4,426, putting both bearish signals firmly in place. However, this weakness is viewed as temporary within the broader long-term bull market, with the next few months potentially resembling the consolidation seen in late 2012 and 2013 before the larger uptrend resumes.

    Silver Confirms the Bearish Signal

    Silver’s recent short-term strength proved short-lived. As expected, the metal has now fallen at roughly twice gold’s pace, resolving the earlier outperformance within a single session.

    Silver remains near its declining resistance line, but a decisive close back below that level could trigger a much sharper decline. The bearish setup is reinforced by several technical signals:

    • Silver has already broken below its rising support line.
    • Friday’s high occurred precisely where two support/resistance lines intersected, once again highlighting the importance of these technical levels.

    Dollar Breakout Adds Pressure

    The US Dollar Index has now closed above its declining resistance line for three consecutive sessions, confirming the recent breakout. With the dollar continuing to advance, the August decline in the greenback increasingly appears to have run its course.

    That development creates an unfavorable backdrop for precious metals. A stronger dollar, combined with rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns, could keep downward pressure on gold and silver.

    Gold Falls Despite Renewed Conflict

    The most important signal from today’s session is how gold reacted when geopolitical tensions escalated again.

    The US and Iran exchanged strikes after roughly a month without direct attacks. US forces reportedly targeted Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, while Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against US facilities in Jordan and the UAE. Reports also indicated that a tanker struck mines and a bulk carrier was seized near Bandar Abbas, while President Trump renewed threats involving Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil-export hub.

    Brent crude climbed back above $90, yet gold fell by more than 1%.

    That reaction is significant. A month earlier, similar headlines triggered massive rallies in gold. This time, renewed fighting and a surge in oil prices failed to attract a sustained safe-haven bid.

    The market appears to be focusing instead on the inflationary impact of higher oil prices. Rising energy costs could keep inflation elevated, encouraging the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. Combined with the confirmed dollar breakout, that pressure appears to be outweighing gold’s traditional geopolitical safe-haven appeal.

    The Bigger Picture

    Gold and silver are both showing increasingly bearish technical signals, while mining stocks are also moving lower. At the same time, the US dollar has confirmed its breakout and rising oil prices are reinforcing inflation concerns.

    The clearest takeaway is simple: when a major geopolitical escalation occurs and gold falls instead of rising, the market is sending a powerful signal that traders should not ignore.

  • Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Struggle to Build on Gains Despite ETF Inflows

    • Bitcoin consolidates above $78,000 as ETF inflows return, helping support the broader bullish outlook.
    • Ethereum pauses near $2,450 while continued institutional demand provides underlying support.
    • XRP remains under pressure, with the 200-day EMA around $1.35 serving as a key support level.

    Institutional demand remains firm as Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP consolidate

    Cryptocurrency markets are broadly moving sideways on Tuesday after their recent advance lost momentum amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over the weekend. Bitcoin (BTC) is holding above the $78,000 level as buyers struggle to push the price higher. Ethereum (ETH) and XRP are also maintaining a neutral-to-bullish stance, trading above important support levels near $2,400 and $1.35, respectively.

    Institutional interest continues to support crypto assets

    Risk appetite has remained relatively strong in recent weeks, reflecting improving market sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 69 on Tuesday, up from 62 a day earlier, signaling a shift toward greater investor optimism.

    If this positive sentiment persists, stronger demand for cryptocurrency investment products could help offset downside pressure and increase the possibility of another recovery phase.

    Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted approximately $217 million in net inflows on Monday, reversing the $202 million in outflows recorded on Friday. According to SoSoValue, cumulative inflows have reached around $55 billion, while total net assets under management remain near $100 billion.

    Ethereum spot ETFs also continued to attract capital, recording approximately $88 million in inflows on Monday. The sustained demand highlights continued institutional interest in gaining exposure to Ethereum.

    Meanwhile, XRP spot ETFs recorded their tenth consecutive session of inflows, receiving nearly $6 million on Monday. Total cumulative inflows have climbed to approximately $1.66 billion, while average net assets under management remain around $1.45 billion.

    Technical Analysis: Bitcoin remains range-bound

    Bitcoin is trading near $78,324 and continues to hold comfortably above its major exponential moving averages (EMAs), preserving a constructive short-term trend despite the recent pause below its highs.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering close to 70, approaching overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive. Together, these indicators suggest that bullish momentum is still intact, although its strength has moderated.

    Bitcoin price by TradingView

    On the downside, the 50-day EMA near $70,046 represents the first major support area, followed by the 100-day EMA around $69,086. A deeper correction could bring these levels into focus as potential areas where buyers may attempt to defend the broader uptrend. The 200-day EMA near $72,351 also remains an important medium-term reference during a larger pullback.

    Altcoin Technical Analysis: Ethereum and XRP face limited upside momentum

    Ethereum continues to show a positive short-term structure, with price holding well above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, which are positioned between approximately $2,045 and $2,170.

    The RSI near 68 indicates solid bullish momentum but is approaching overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD has flattened around the zero line, suggesting that upside momentum remains positive but is beginning to lose strength.

    Immediate support is located around $2,458, while stronger downside protection comes from the 200-day EMA near $2,168, followed by the 50-day EMA at approximately $2,117 and the 100-day EMA around $2,047. This EMA cluster could provide a broader demand zone if Ethereum undergoes a deeper correction.

    Ethereum price by TradingView

    With no major resistance level immediately overhead on the daily chart, a renewed advance would likely depend on fresh buying pressure. However, the elevated RSI leaves room for consolidation or a pullback toward the EMA cluster before another attempt at higher levels.

    XRP continues to trade above its 200-day EMA near $1.35, keeping its broader technical structure constructive despite the recent retreat from higher levels. The 50-day and 100-day EMAs remain significantly below the current price around $1.21, while the RSI near 61 points to moderate bullish momentum without signaling overbought conditions.

    However, the MACD has turned slightly negative, indicating that upside momentum is fading rather than confirming a decisive trend reversal.

    Initial support is found around $1.37, followed by stronger structural support at the 200-day EMA near $1.35. A more significant decline could bring the $1.21 area into focus, where the 50-day and 100-day EMAs converge.

    The $1.37–$1.35 zone is therefore crucial for XRP in the near term. Holding above the 200-day EMA would preserve the broader bullish outlook, while a daily close below this level could signal a more significant deterioration in the underlying trend.

  • Silver Price Outlook: XAG/USD Falls Under $64.00 as Rising Inflation Concerns Weigh

    • Silver prices extend their decline as a global bond selloff pushes the 10-year US Treasury yield to a 2025 peak of 4.80%.
    • Escalating tensions between the US and Iran drive oil prices higher, raising concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies.
    • Mixed US economic indicators keep traders focused on upcoming employment data for further clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

    Silver (XAG/USD) continues to weaken for a second consecutive session, trading near $63.40 per troy ounce during Wednesday’s Asian session. The non-yielding precious metal remains under pressure as a broad selloff in global bonds lifted the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.80%, its highest level since early 2025. The rise in yields has renewed concerns about persistent inflation and the possibility of additional interest-rate hikes.

    Silver bars and coins, including Scottsdale Mint and Valcambi bars, on wooden table

    Inflation worries have also intensified following a sharp increase in crude oil prices amid growing tensions between the United States and Iran. The geopolitical escalation has raised fears of disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East. TD Securities noted that the latest developments highlight the fragile nature of any agreements between the two sides, keeping geopolitical risk elevated and supporting a risk premium in oil markets.

    Meanwhile, US economic indicators have delivered mixed signals. July JOLTS job openings came in below expectations at 7.27 million, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 54.6 in August from 55.6 previously. Although the reading missed forecasts, it remained firmly above the 50 threshold, pointing to continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Investors are now awaiting the ADP employment report and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls figures for clearer indications of the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

    Fed’s Barr maintains a hawkish stance as inflation remains a concern

    Federal Reserve official Barr adopted a somewhat more hawkish tone, with the FXS Speechtracker scoring his remarks at 7/10, above the historical average of 6.8. He emphasized that inflation remains elevated despite a stable labor market and solid growth supported by artificial intelligence. His conditional guidance suggests the Fed could keep interest rates unchanged if inflation continues to ease, while leaving the door open to another hike should price pressures persist.

    XAGUSD chart by TradingView

    This stance points to a tightening-leaning policy reaction function and suggests the Fed has limited tolerance for a renewed acceleration in inflation, potentially providing continued support for the US Dollar.

    The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell 0.42 points to 128.86, reflecting a modest decline in perceived hawkishness. However, the index remains well above the neutral 100 level, indicating that the broader Federal Reserve policy environment continues to favor a hawkish stance and may keep the Dollar supported against lower-yielding currencies.

  • Euro remains above 1.1600 as traders await the latest Eurozone HICP inflation figures.

    EUR/USD edged higher to around 1.1620 during Tuesday’s early Asian session, maintaining its position above the key 1.1600 level as markets await the release of the Eurozone’s preliminary August HICP inflation figures.

    The Euro remains supported despite a firmer US Dollar, with traders closely watching the upcoming inflation data for clues about the European Central Bank’s next policy moves.

    In Germany, consumer inflation accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in August, up from 2.8% in July and marking the third straight monthly increase. However, monthly CPI growth slowed to 0.2%, below the 0.3% market forecast.

    The ECB has already raised borrowing costs once, and markets are increasingly pricing in another rate hike at its September 10 meeting. Investors are also anticipating further monetary tightening into next year if inflation remains persistent.

    Meanwhile, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve could limit EUR/USD’s upside. Traders have increased expectations for a September Fed rate hike after Kevin Warsh indicated that policymakers may need to take further action if they lack confidence that underlying inflation is moving back toward the 2% target.

    Warsh Provides Clearer Guidance on Fed Policy

    Scotiabank strategists noted that Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks helped clarify his policy stance following the uncertainty surrounding his comments after the July FOMC meeting. His latest comments provided markets with a clearer signal ahead of the September policy decision.

    For EUR/USD, the focus now shifts to the Eurozone HICP inflation report, which could provide fresh direction for the pair and influence expectations for both ECB and Fed policy.

    Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

    On the daily chart, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1622, maintaining a mildly bullish structure. The pair has moved above the 20-period Bollinger Band midpoint at 1.1600 and the 100-day SMA near 1.1570, reinforcing the positive setup following its rebound from the mid-1.15 area.

    EURUSD chart by TradingView

    Momentum also remains supportive, with the 14-day RSI near 57, indicating continued buying interest while still staying comfortably below overbought territory.

    On the upside, the upper Bollinger Band around 1.1713 represents the next key resistance zone, where the pair could encounter some profit-taking. On the downside, 1.1600 serves as the first support level, followed by the 100-day SMA near 1.1570. A break below these levels could open the way toward the lower Bollinger Band around 1.1488, which represents a stronger potential demand zone.

  • WTI crude oil remains above $85.50 as escalating Middle East tensions raise concerns over global supply disruptions.

    • WTI prices rise as renewed US-Iran hostilities and threats against Kharg Island heighten concerns over disruptions to global crude supplies.
    • Strait of Hormuz risks intensify after a supertanker struck naval mines, underscoring the growing threats to one of the world’s most important oil transit routes.
    • Russian refinery attacks by Ukraine have reduced refining capacity, pushing fuel margins to record levels and adding further pressure to global energy markets.

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced for a second consecutive session, trading near $85.60 per barrel during Tuesday’s Asian trading hours. The latest gains came as renewed conflict in the Middle East fueled fears that regional instability could disrupt oil production and transportation.

    Tensions escalated after US forces reportedly targeted Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, followed by Iranian attacks on targets in the UAE and Jordan. Concerns increased further after President Donald Trump warned of possible military action against Kharg Island, Iran’s key oil export terminal.

    The Strait of Hormuz has also emerged as a major source of supply risk. A supertanker reportedly caught fire after hitting two naval mines, highlighting the vulnerability of vessels operating through the strategic waterway. Despite the incident, oil shipments have continued, although major Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq are reportedly maintaining only partial flows.

    Meanwhile, attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries have further reduced global refining capacity. The combination of tighter Middle Eastern supply prospects and weaker Russian refining operations has pushed refined-product margins to record highs, signaling growing strain across energy markets.

    US–Venezuela Oil Deal Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty

    Energy markets are also assessing claims of a new US–Venezuela oil agreement. BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong noted that President Trump has said the United States reached a deal that would give it majority control over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves.

    WTI chart by TradingView

    Trump has described the arrangement as coming at no cost to US taxpayers and argued that it could strengthen bilateral relations while helping reduce gasoline prices. However, the lack of clarity surrounding the agreement’s legal structure and implementation has left investors uncertain about when, or whether, the potential additional supply would reach global markets.

    With geopolitical risks rising and crude flows facing pressure from multiple regions, WTI remains supported above $85.50, while traders continue to closely monitor developments across the Middle East, Russia, and Venezuela.

  • Gold slips below $4,450 as rising Middle East tensions fuel inflation concerns

    Gold Slips as Fed Tightening Expectations Offset Safe-Haven Demand

    Gold (XAU/USD) retreated toward $4,445 during Tuesday’s Asian session, losing traction as escalating Middle East tensions fueled inflation worries and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again.

    Geopolitical risks intensified after renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump warned of a strong response against Tehran following a series of military exchanges, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility for attacks on U.S. military installations in the region. The U.S. military also confirmed strikes on Iranian rocket launch sites on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz. The developments have driven oil prices higher, adding to concerns that inflation could remain elevated.

    Markets are also reacting to increasingly hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium, Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to restoring inflation to its target and suggested policymakers are not yet convinced that price pressures are easing sufficiently. Rising energy costs have further reinforced concerns that inflation may remain stubborn.

    Rajeev De Mello, Global Macro Portfolio Manager at GAMA Asset Management, noted that investors were caught off guard by the Fed’s more hawkish tone, creating near-term pressure on gold prices.

    According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 65.4% probability of a rate increase at the Fed’s September meeting, a sharp rise from roughly 39.9% before Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.

    Gold Faces Pressure as Markets Reprice Fed Outlook

    Analysts at TD Securities said gold has eased from recent highs as investors reassess the future path of U.S. monetary policy following Warsh’s comments. The market’s focus has shifted toward the possibility of tighter financial conditions and higher interest rates, which typically weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold.

    Hawkish Fed Signals Support the U.S. Dollar

    Warsh delivered one of the strongest inflation-focused messages seen in recent months, emphasizing that the Fed still has work to do before inflation is fully under control. He stressed that the central bank’s 2% PCE inflation target remains non-negotiable and indicated that current financial conditions are not restrictive enough to guarantee inflation’s return to target.

    The broader policy outlook remains firmly hawkish, with the Fed Sentiment Index holding at elevated levels. This reinforces expectations that the central bank will continue prioritizing price stability, a stance that is likely to support the U.S. Dollar and limit upside potential for gold in the near term.

    Technical Analysis: Gold (XAU/USD)

    From a technical perspective, gold maintains a moderately bullish outlook on the daily timeframe, with prices continuing to trade above both the 100-day Moving Average (MA) at $4,370.48 and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,430.23, which serves as the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands. This positioning suggests that the broader uptrend remains intact despite recent consolidation.

    XAUUSD chart by TradingView

    Momentum indicators also support a constructive bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 54, indicating neutral-to-positive momentum. While buying interest remains present, the reading is well below overbought territory, leaving room for further upside if bullish sentiment strengthens.

    On the upside, the next major hurdle is located near the upper Bollinger Band at $4,723.68. A sustained move above current levels could bring this resistance zone into focus, although profit-taking activity may emerge as prices approach the area.

    On the downside, initial support is seen around the 20-day SMA near $4,430, followed by stronger support at the 100-day MA around $4,370.48. Should selling pressure intensify, the lower Bollinger Band at $4,136.78 could provide a deeper layer of support and help limit downside losses.

    Overall, the technical picture remains favorable for gold as long as prices hold above the key moving averages, though traders will continue to monitor Fed expectations and geopolitical developments for the next directional catalyst.

  • Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Consolidates as Markets Await Fed Guidance

    Gold held near $4,600 per ounce on Friday, putting the precious metal on track to finish the week with little overall change. Investors are now focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, looking for clues about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest-rate decisions.

    Current market pricing suggests roughly a 65% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in September. However, stronger-than-anticipated US inflation has increased expectations for another rate increase before the end of the year, with the implied probability of a hike by December still above 70%.

    Gold is also receiving support from the so-called debasement trade, as investors seek assets that can preserve value amid currency depreciation and growing government debt. The US Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback program has raised additional concerns about the sustainability of US debt, while also placing renewed pressure on the dollar.

    The geopolitical environment remains uncertain as well. Oil prices are staying elevated amid renewed tensions involving Russia, even as there are indications of diplomatic progress in the Middle East.

    Technical Analysis

    On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold is consolidating around the $4,605 level. The technical setup points to a possible decline toward $4,511 in the near term, followed by a potential recovery toward $4,605 before another downward move toward $4,420.

    The MACD indicator supports this bearish scenario. Its signal line remains above the zero line but is moving lower, suggesting that short-term downward momentum is still present.

    On the H1 chart, XAU/USD recently completed a decline toward $4,564, followed by a corrective rebound to around $4,600. The market is now developing a broader consolidation pattern above the $4,564 support area.

    A break below this range could trigger another move toward $4,511, with the potential for an extension toward $4,500.

    The Stochastic oscillator also favors the downside, with its signal line below the 20 level and continuing to move lower. This indicates that short-term selling pressure remains dominant.

    Conclusion

    Gold remains relatively stable ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, with investors looking for clearer signals about the direction of US monetary policy. Although markets currently expect interest rates to remain unchanged in September, persistent inflation has kept the possibility of a year-end rate hike above 70%.

    At the same time, concerns surrounding currency depreciation, rising US debt, and debt sustainability continue to provide underlying support for gold. Geopolitical developments involving Russia and the Middle East are adding another layer of uncertainty to the broader market.

    From a technical perspective, gold could face near-term downside toward $4,511 and potentially $4,500. The H4 setup suggests that a temporary rebound toward $4,605 could follow before another decline toward $4,420.

    The market’s next major direction will likely depend on Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments and upcoming US economic data, which could provide important clues about the Fed’s policy path and gold’s next significant move.

  • How Investor Psychology May Be Hurting Your Investment Returns

    Investor psychology is the second chapter in a five-part series exploring the common narratives surrounding the idea of “investing for the long term.”

    Key Takeaways

    In the first article, we identified the next obstacle investors must overcome: themselves.

    You can understand valuation models, master financial metrics, and learn the principles that supposedly determine investment success. Yet you can still give a significant portion of your returns back to the market for one simple reason: you are human.

    Human beings are naturally wired to respond to danger, follow the crowd, and place greater weight on recent experiences. Those instincts may have helped our ancestors survive, but they can become destructive when applied to an investment portfolio.

    There is another problem, too. Markets can gradually train investors to develop certain reactions until those behaviors begin to feel like sound financial judgment.

    One enemy is how we are naturally wired. The other is how the market has conditioned us.

    This is where investor psychology becomes especially important.

    You May Be Your Own Biggest Investment Risk

    One of the most uncomfortable realities in investing is that the average investor often earns less than the very funds they own.

    A fund may generate a strong return, yet the investor holding that fund captures a smaller portion of it. This pattern has appeared repeatedly over time.

    Morningstar’s annual “Mind the Gap” study highlights this behavior. In its 2025 edition, covering the decade through the end of 2024, the average dollar invested in U.S. funds earned roughly 7.0% annually, compared with approximately 8.2% for the funds themselves.

    That difference amounts to around 1.2 percentage points per year.

    The shortfall is not necessarily caused by excessive fees. Much of it comes from investor behavior: buying after prices have already risen, selling after markets have already fallen, and repeating the process.

    At first glance, a 1.2% annual difference may seem insignificant. Over 30 years, however, the effect becomes substantial. On an initial $100,000 investment, such a gap can amount to roughly $300,000 in lost wealth.

    Of course, researchers debate how much of the performance gap is caused by poor timing versus the normal mechanics of when investors contribute or withdraw money. Not every percentage point can be blamed entirely on emotional decision-making.

    But one principle remains clear: emotional trading tends to hurt investors, and excessive trading generally makes the problem worse.

    The investors who interfere with their portfolios the least often have the best chance of retaining more of their investment gains.

    The Emotional Cycle That Repeats

    Why do intelligent and experienced investors repeatedly buy near market highs and sell near market lows?

    Because the decision often feels completely reasonable at the time.

    Market cycles tend to follow a familiar emotional pattern. After prices rise for an extended period, confidence grows. Gains appear easy, other investors seem successful, and optimism spreads.

    Eventually, that confidence can become euphoria—the stage associated with some of the highest financial risk.

    At the opposite extreme, after a major decline, investors become discouraged and fearful. They may decide that stocks are simply too dangerous and swear off investing altogether.

    Ironically, that period of despondency can coincide with some of the market’s greatest opportunities.

    The problem is that investor psychology often points in the wrong direction.

    Market veteran Bob Farrell summarized the phenomenon decades ago: investors tend to become most enthusiastic near market tops and most reluctant near market bottoms.

    That does not happen because investors are unintelligent. It happens because rising markets feel safe, while falling markets feel dangerous.

    Howard Marks has made a similar observation: when virtually nobody believes markets are risky, most potential buyers may already be invested, leaving fewer new buyers to push prices higher.

    Four Psychological Biases That Can Damage Returns

    Investor behavior is influenced by numerous cognitive biases, but four are particularly important when it comes to investment decisions:

    1. Loss aversion
    2. Recency bias
    3. Confirmation bias
    4. Herding

    Understanding these biases is the first step toward recognizing them before they affect your portfolio.

    1. Loss Aversion

    Loss aversion is one of the most powerful forces influencing investors.

    Research associated with Daniel Kahneman demonstrated that people generally experience the pain of losing money much more intensely than the pleasure of gaining the same amount.

    That imbalance can make investors reluctant to sell losing investments.

    Imagine a stock that has fallen 40%. Selling would make the loss official, so investors often continue holding the position in the hope that it eventually recovers.

    Instead of making a rational assessment of the investment’s future prospects, they become emotionally attached to avoiding the realization of the loss.

    The problem is that refusing to sell does not eliminate the loss. It simply keeps capital tied up in the position.

    A better approach is to establish your investment criteria and exit rules before purchasing an asset. Decisions made in advance are usually less influenced by fear, hope, or regret.

    Selling then becomes part of a predefined process rather than an emotional reaction.

    2. Recency Bias

    Recency bias occurs when investors assume that recent events will continue indefinitely.

    After an asset has delivered impressive gains, investors may begin to believe that further gains are almost inevitable. That perception often attracts even more money after prices have already risen substantially.

    The same phenomenon occurs in reverse.

    Following a severe decline, investors may conclude that the asset is permanently damaged and avoid it even when valuations have become more attractive.

    As a result, investors can repeatedly buy yesterday’s winners at elevated prices and sell yesterday’s losers after prices have already declined.

    One way to counter this tendency is to expand your time horizon.

    A three-year period of strong performance can look very different when compared with two decades of historical data. Rather than focusing primarily on recent returns, investors should consider valuation, long-term fundamentals, and where the current price stands relative to historical norms.

    Historically, assets that are inexpensive and unpopular have often offered more attractive opportunities than assets that are already expensive and universally admired.

    3. Confirmation Bias

    Confirmation bias can be particularly dangerous because it often looks like thorough research.

    Once investors own an asset—or become emotionally committed to buying it—they naturally begin searching for information that supports their existing view.

    Bullish articles receive attention while bearish arguments are dismissed. Social media feeds become increasingly personalized, creating an echo chamber where investors hear mostly from people who agree with them.

    The danger is that this process can create the illusion of research without genuine challenge.

    Instead of testing an investment thesis, investors may simply be collecting evidence that makes them feel correct.

    A useful countermeasure is deliberately seeking out the strongest argument against your position.

    Find someone intelligent who believes you are wrong and seriously consider their reasoning. If you cannot explain the opposing argument accurately, you may not fully understand your own investment thesis.

    Reducing the noise from social media and avoiding ideological echo chambers can also improve decision-making.

    4. Herding

    Herding is one of the oldest human instincts and can be extremely costly in financial markets.

    Throughout human history, staying with the group often increased the chances of survival. In investing, however, following the crowd does not automatically provide safety.

    When everyone is buying an increasingly expensive asset, joining the crowd may feel sensible.

    When everyone is selling, standing aside can feel reckless.

    But markets often become most vulnerable at extremes, precisely when the majority appears most confident.

    When a particular investment becomes popular, obvious, and universally recommended, that should not automatically make you more comfortable.

    It should make you ask harder questions.

    When an investment decision feels effortless and everyone appears to agree, that may be the moment when additional scrutiny is most valuable.

    Markets Can Train Investors to React Automatically

    Investor psychology is not only about natural human instincts. It is also shaped by experience.

    The concept is similar to Pavlov’s famous conditioning experiments. Repeatedly pairing a signal with a reward can eventually produce an automatic response.

    Financial markets can create a similar pattern.

    Over many years, investors may see market declines followed by recoveries. Policymakers intervene, liquidity returns, economic conditions improve, or momentum eventually turns upward.

    After experiencing this cycle repeatedly, investors can become conditioned to respond automatically whenever markets fall.

    The sequence becomes:

    Market falls → buy the dip → market recovers → repeat.

    Eventually, investors may stop analyzing whether the current situation is actually different.

    This can create a form of moral hazard—the assumption that someone or something will eventually protect you from the consequences of taking excessive risk.

    The danger is that a strategy can appear increasingly intelligent simply because it has worked repeatedly in the past.

    Every successful dip-buying experience reinforces confidence in the strategy.

    But conditioning becomes particularly dangerous near market peaks, after investors have enjoyed a long sequence of successful recoveries.

    The problem is that eventually a decline arrives that does not quickly reverse.

    The Investment “Awards” You Do Not Want

    Once natural instincts and market conditioning are combined, investors can develop a collection of behaviors that look like virtues but often damage long-term returns.

    Being loyal to a losing investment is not the same as being loyal to a sound investment process.

    Taking the greatest possible risk is not automatically the same as identifying the greatest opportunity.

    And claiming to be a “long-term investor” only when an investment is underwater may simply be a way of rationalizing a bad decision.

    As investor Jeremy Grantham has argued, investors are rewarded for buying assets at attractive prices—not simply for accepting greater risk.

    A useful way to think about portfolio management is to compare it with gardening.

    A good gardener does not keep a dying plant simply because they have become emotionally attached to it. They remove what is failing, prune what has become excessive, and create more room for healthy growth.

    A portfolio requires similar maintenance.

    Selling a losing investment is not necessarily an admission of failure. Sometimes it is simply good portfolio management.

    There is no reward for allowing weak investments to consume capital merely because you are unwilling to let them go.

    How to Overcome Both Enemies

    The biggest challenge with investor psychology is that you cannot simply switch off your instincts.

    You cannot eliminate fear, greed, or emotional reactions through willpower alone. Nor can you instantly undo years of conditioning.

    The practical solution is to create an investment process that operates independently of your emotions.

    That means establishing rules before emotions take control.

    Define your entry criteria. Determine your risk limits. Establish when you will sell. Review your portfolio based on predetermined principles rather than reacting to every headline or market movement.

    The market does not necessarily take your money from you.

    In many cases, investors give away their potential returns gradually through emotional decisions—buying because of greed near market highs or selling because of fear near market lows.

    Perhaps the most valuable investment skill is therefore not finding the perfect analysis.

    It is having the discipline to do nothing when your emotions are demanding action.

    But discipline works best when it is supported by a clear process.

    The next stage of understanding investor psychology is to examine the mathematics behind these mistakes.

    A 50% decline requires a 100% gain simply to return to the starting point. The valuation you pay today can have a major influence on the returns you earn over the following decade. And for investors approaching retirement, the sequence in which returns occur can matter just as much as the average return itself.

    Those are the numbers investors cannot afford to ignore.

  • Point of Control Trading: 4 Strategies to Identify Better Trade Setups

    Most traders focus heavily on price action.

    However, price alone does not always reveal where the market considers fair value or where buyers and sellers are most willing to transact.

    This is where Point of Control (POC) trading becomes useful.

    The POC is the price level where the highest amount of volume was traded during a particular period. On a volume profile, it is typically represented by the longest horizontal bar.

    In simple terms, it shows the price where the market conducted the most business.

    Because of this, POC can serve as an important reference for identifying areas of value, potential mean-reversion targets, and whether the market is accepting or rejecting a particular price level.

    Here are four practical ways to use it.

    1. Use the POC as a Mean-Reversion Target

    The first approach is relatively straightforward.

    When the market is trading within a balanced range and price moves significantly away from the POC, that level can sometimes act as a magnet, drawing price back toward it.

    For example, suppose the NQ spends much of the morning trading near 20,500, establishing that level as the session’s POC.

    Price then climbs toward 20,560, but the rally loses momentum. Buyers fail to extend the move, and selling pressure begins to emerge.

    If price subsequently starts moving back into the previous trading range, 20,500 becomes a logical potential target.

    However, traders should not automatically short simply because price has moved above the POC.

    The key is to wait for evidence that the move is being rejected.

    That confirmation could come from a failed breakout, a reversal candlestick, weakening momentum, or price moving back into the value area.

    In other words, allow the market to demonstrate that the move has failed before using the POC as the target.

    2. Pay Attention to Price Action Around the POC

    The POC should not automatically be considered either support or resistance.

    What matters most is how price behaves when it reaches the level.

    If price touches the POC and quickly reverses, the market may be rejecting that price.

    On the other hand, if price moves through the POC, returns to it, crosses it again, and begins spending significant time on both sides, that suggests the market is accepting the level.

    This difference can completely change the trading approach.

    For instance, imagine price has remained below the POC throughout the morning before eventually breaking above it and holding there.

    That behavior suggests buyers are becoming comfortable transacting at higher prices.

    Rather than immediately fading the breakout, traders could wait for a pullback toward the POC and observe whether the level now acts as support.

    This creates a clearer and more objective decision point.

    3. Combine the POC With VAH and VAL

    The POC becomes even more valuable when it is used alongside the Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL).

    The value area represents the range where the majority of trading activity occurred.

    This gives traders three important reference levels:

    • VAH: The upper boundary of the value area
    • POC: The price level with the highest traded volume
    • VAL: The lower boundary of the value area

    One particularly useful setup occurs when price briefly moves outside the value area but then returns inside.

    For example, price may break below VAL but fail to continue lower. If buyers regain control and push price back above VAL, the POC can become the first logical upside target.

    If price reaches the POC and breaks through it with strong momentum, VAH may become the next level to monitor.

    This approach creates a structured trading framework in which price moves from one clearly defined reference level to another.

    4. Use the POC for Trade Management

    The POC is not only useful for finding entries. It can also play an important role in managing open positions.

    When trading a move back toward the value area, the POC can provide a logical location for taking partial profits.

    Likewise, when trading a breakout, a successful retest of the POC can offer additional confirmation that the new move is holding.

    Instead of making decisions based purely on emotion or guesswork, traders can use the POC as a predefined level for evaluating whether to hold, reduce, or adjust a position.

    The Biggest Mistake When Trading the POC

    The most important thing to remember is that the POC is not a magical support or resistance line.

    Price does not have to reverse whenever it reaches the level.

    The POC should be analyzed alongside other market information, including market structure, trend direction, VWAP, previous highs and lows, opening-range levels, and momentum.

    The Point of Control tells you where the market has conducted the greatest amount of business.

    More importantly, how price behaves when it reaches that level can provide clues about what the market may do next.

  • Bitcoin Consolidates Near $79,000 as Bulls Lose Momentum and Breakout Risk Builds

    This article is regularly updated throughout market hours.

    Bitcoin is trading around $79,037 on the 5-hour chart, with bullish momentum fading while the broader trend remains supported. Buyers and sellers are increasingly battling for control, and a decisive move outside the current range could lead to a sharp breakout or breakdown.

    Momentum Stalls as Market Risk Increases

    Bitcoin’s latest rally appears to have run into resistance near $81,330, pushing the price back toward $79,037 and creating a pattern of lower highs. Despite this short-term weakness, the broader bullish structure remains intact, with Bitcoin still trading 16.6% above the 200-period SMA at $67,755.70.

    However, several indicators are pointing to reduced buying strength. The MACD has produced a bearish crossover, while the RSI has eased to 58.7, suggesting that bullish momentum is losing steam. At the same time, declining trading volume and repeated doji candles indicate growing uncertainty as neither buyers nor sellers have established clear control.

    Bitcoin Outlook: Breakout or Breakdown?

    ScenarioBullish AggressiveBullish ConservativeBearish AggressiveBearish Conservative
    Entry TriggerClose above $79,500Rebound near $77,500Test of $80,500Close below $76,800
    Stop Loss$76,000$76,000$81,500$81,500
    Targets$80,000 / $81,300 / $83,000Same$77,500 / $75,100 / $72,350Same
    Risk/Reward1.66 / 2.53 / 3.66Higher RR3.00 / 5.40 / 8.15Higher RR
    ConfidenceMediumMediumLowLow
    Best Suited ForBreakout tradersPatient bullsRange tradersTrend followers
    • Bullish setup: Buyers would need a convincing move above $79,500, or a strong bounce from the $77,500 region, where SMA(50) and SuperTrend support are concentrated.
    • Bearish setup: Sellers could look for rejection around $80,500, or a breakdown below $76,800, which would signal a loss of SuperTrend support.
    • Risk management: Stop-loss levels are positioned around key structural pivots to limit downside exposure.
    • Price targets: Initial objectives are based on recent range highs and lows, while extended targets align with psychological and Fibonacci levels.
    • Risk/reward: The potential reward remains attractive across the setups. However, bearish trades carry lower confidence because the broader trend continues to show resilience.

    Bitcoin Technical Levels to Monitor

    • Key support: $77,000–$77,500, a zone tested multiple times and reinforced by SuperTrend and SMA(50).
    • Major resistance: $80,500–$81,300, covering recent highs and the upper Bollinger Band.
    • Neutral zone: $78,000–$80,000, where choppy price action and false breakouts are more likely.

    The bullish outlook remains intact above $76,979, the current SuperTrend level. A decisive move below this threshold could open the door to a deeper mean-reversion move toward $75,100 and potentially $72,350, based on Fibonacci levels and the top of the Ichimoku cloud.

    Bitcoin price by TradingView

    Risk Radar: Potential Traps and Warning Signals

    • Bull Trap Risk: A failed breakout above $80,500 could quickly turn into a sharp decline. Traders should look for strong volume confirmation before treating an upside breakout as reliable.
    • Bearish MACD Signal: The bearish MACD crossover is an important warning sign, as weakening momentum despite higher price levels suggests sellers may be gradually gaining influence.
    • Falling Volume: A breakout accompanied by weak volume would carry less credibility and increase the risk of a false move.

    Key Takeaway: Patience Could Be the Best Strategy

    When Bitcoin consolidates within a narrow range following a strong rally, waiting for confirmation can be more effective than trading inside the middle of the range. Entering too early can expose traders to repeated whipsaws as price moves in both directions.

    A confirmed breakout or breakdown provides greater clarity and a stronger basis for taking a position. Until then, mean-reversion trades should be approached cautiously, with the key support and resistance zones serving as the main levels to watch.

  • Wall Street’s Top Analyst Calls This Week

    Monday – Chipotle Mexican Grill Cut to Neutral, Target Reduced to $40

    What happened: Baird downgraded Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) from Outperform to Neutral and lowered its price target from $44 to $40.

    Why it matters: The brokerage believes Chipotle now needs to invest more aggressively just to generate modest sales growth, limiting its ability to expand margins. The broader fast-casual restaurant sector continues to face weak consumer demand, pressured by high fuel costs, economic uncertainty, and tighter budgets among lower-income customers. While some competitors have managed to perform well under the same conditions, Baird argues that challenging environments tend to highlight differences in execution and value offerings. As consumers become more selective, market share is increasingly shifting toward brands that combine affordability with operational excellence.

    Tuesday – Zoom Communications Raised to Buy at Benchmark

    What happened: Benchmark upgraded Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ: ZM) to Buy.

    Why it matters: Analysts highlighted Zoom’s stable enterprise customer base and strong operating margins of roughly 24.6%, which provide a solid foundation during uncertain market conditions. Beyond its video conferencing business, Zoom’s sizable cash reserves and early investment in AI startup Anthropic are viewed as significant growth opportunities. If Anthropic eventually pursues an IPO, Benchmark believes the market could assign greater value to Zoom’s investment holdings, creating upside that is not fully reflected in current expectations.

    Wednesday – AMD Upgraded to Strong Buy, Target Raised to $641

    What happened: Raymond James upgraded Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) from Outperform to Strong Buy and increased its price target to $641.

    Why it matters: The firm sees stronger-than-expected demand for AMD’s server CPUs, delaying earlier forecasts that GPUs would become the company’s largest data-center revenue contributor by late 2026. Raymond James expects data-center sales to roughly double in 2027 before maintaining strong growth into 2028. CPUs are projected to account for more than one-third of AMD’s total revenue, helping the company surpass Intel in server CPU revenue. Although near-term earnings estimates were adjusted lower, the firm believes AMD’s long-term growth potential in both processors and AI accelerators supports significantly higher earnings power over time.

    Thursday – First Solar Upgraded to Outperform, Target Set at $263

    What happened: BMO Capital Markets upgraded First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) to Outperform with a $263 price target.

    Why it matters: BMO sees First Solar as a major beneficiary of U.S. domestic manufacturing incentives and expanding utility-scale solar projects. The company’s backlog is fully booked beyond 2027, providing strong visibility into future pricing and revenue. In addition, rising electricity demand from AI-focused data centers is encouraging more utility power purchase agreements, creating favorable conditions for continued solar deployment and module shipments.

    Friday – Workday Upgraded to Buy at Guggenheim

    What happened: Guggenheim upgraded Workday (NASDAQ: WDAY) to Buy.

    Why it matters: The firm cited growing adoption of Workday’s human capital management and financial management platforms, with customers increasingly purchasing multiple products. AI-powered workflow tools are also contributing to higher contract values and improved renewal performance. Guggenheim expects stronger operating leverage to support mid-teen subscription revenue growth while driving further margin expansion in the coming years.

  • Weekly Forex Outlook: Markets Face Resistance as Hawkish Fed Signals Temper Risk Appetite

    Silver

    Silver attempted to extend its rally during the week but struggled to maintain momentum above the $70 mark. Renewed concerns over U.S. interest rates and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh shifted sentiment, prompting traders to reassess expectations for future monetary policy.

    The $70 level now appears to be a significant resistance zone, and the metal could remain under pressure in the near term while markets digest the Fed’s outlook.

    Nasdaq 100

    The Nasdaq 100 experienced considerable volatility throughout the week, ultimately remaining trapped within a broad consolidation range. Despite short-term uncertainty and lingering concerns among investors, strong corporate earnings continue to support the longer-term bullish trend.

    Traders may look for fresh buying opportunities after the recent pullback, although caution remains elevated.

    Gold

    Gold pushed toward the $4,700 level but failed to establish a decisive breakout. Hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh unsettled financial markets and increased focus on the critical $4,500 support area.

    This psychologically important level could determine the next major move, with a sustained break lower potentially triggering a deeper correction.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar initially advanced but quickly surrendered gains, forming a bearish weekly candlestick pattern that reflects growing hesitation among buyers. With the pair approaching the upper boundary of its longer-term trading range and technical indicators signaling overbought conditions, downside risks are increasing. Key support remains near the 0.69 level.

    USD/MXN

    The U.S. dollar strengthened notably against the Mexican peso, particularly toward the end of the week.

    While Mexico still offers a favorable interest-rate advantage, expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a restrictive stance for longer have boosted demand for the greenback. The 17.00 area remains an important technical level that traders continue to monitor closely.

    GBP/USD

    Sterling lost momentum during the week as markets reacted to unexpectedly hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.

    After testing a major resistance zone on the higher time-frame charts, GBP/USD appears vulnerable to remaining within its established range. Unless new catalysts emerge, range-bound trading may continue in the weeks ahead.

    EUR/USD

    The euro retreated sharply after failing to sustain gains above the 1.17 level, a price area that has repeatedly acted as resistance.

    Investors increasingly favor the U.S. dollar as interest-rate expectations continue to support the greenback. If the policy gap between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank widens further, additional pressure on EUR/USD could follow.

    BTC/USD

    Bitcoin reversed course dramatically late in the week, raising questions about the strength of the recent rally.

    Although the broader trend remains constructive, the inability to decisively overcome the $80,000 threshold suggests bullish momentum may be fading. Traders will be watching closely to see whether a deeper pullback develops, with the $80,000 level continuing to act as a major obstacle.

  • Bitcoin Faces Key $81,081 Resistance at the 50-Week Moving Average

    Bitcoin is trading around $80,255, up 2.33% over the past 24 hours and more than 1% since midnight UTC. The cryptocurrency has held above the $80,000 level on a sustained basis for the first time since May. With approximately 19.82 million BTC in circulation, its market capitalization has climbed to roughly $1.59 trillion.

    The latest advance has been rapid. Bitcoin surged 23% last week, marking its strongest weekly gain in three years, and has risen about 27% over the past month. From its June low near $58,756, the cryptocurrency has gained roughly 38%. Despite the recovery, Bitcoin remains around 36% below its October 2025 record high of $126,021 and approximately 14% lower year to date.

    Price action has remained volatile, with Bitcoin briefly exceeding $80,000 before retreating toward $79,475 and later recovering above $80,000. Over the past two sessions, the trading range has extended from approximately $78,600 to $81,100.

    The technical picture above the current price is becoming increasingly challenging. The previous swing high is located at $82,850, while the 50-week moving average stands at $81,081. The average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs is estimated between $80,000 and $82,000, while nearly 8% of Bitcoin’s total supply was acquired within this range.

    Below the current price, support appears more clearly defined. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $82,850–$57,800 decline is positioned near $77,489. Further support comes from the 200-day EMA around $72,799 and the 50-day EMA near $67,760. The $75,000–$76,000 region has already been tested and successfully defended.

    Bitcoin has yet to confirm a full breakout. Instead, it is approaching one of the strongest overhead supply zones in its recent trading history, supported by eight consecutive sessions of ETF inflows. The next move through the $80,000–$82,000 area could be decisive for the market’s direction over the coming months.

    Treasury Buybacks Trigger Powerful Bitcoin Rally

    The catalyst behind Bitcoin’s latest surge came primarily from traditional financial markets rather than the cryptocurrency sector.

    On August 19, the US Treasury announced plans to at least double government bond buybacks to a minimum of $4 billion per operation between September 9 and November 4, focusing on longer-dated maturities. The announcement came after long-term bond yields had risen sharply, with yields reaching multi-year highs across the US, Japan, Germany and France.

    Bitcoin had been trading within a six-week range, with prices near $64,103 as recently as August 18. The Treasury announcement helped break that range, triggering more than $3 billion in short liquidations on August 19 alone.

    The rally subsequently accelerated as bearish positions were forced to cover. Bitcoin had become a popular short trade amid elevated real yields, and the Treasury intervention weakened the underlying argument behind that positioning. Forced buying across spot and perpetual markets then amplified the move.

    By August 24, Bitcoin had reclaimed $80,000 for the first time since May. The cryptocurrency subsequently experienced another sharp move above $81,000 before profit-taking pushed it back toward $78,500.

    The Treasury’s buyback program continues to provide a supportive backdrop for risk assets, while the US national debt has surpassed $40 trillion. This combination of fiscal concerns, bond-market intervention and shifting yields remains an important macro factor for Bitcoin.

    $80,000–$82,000 Represents a Major Supply Zone

    One of the most important factors for Bitcoin in the near term is the concentration of previously purchased coins around current prices.

    Realized price distribution data indicates that nearly 8% of Bitcoin’s total supply was acquired between $80,000 and $82,000, representing one of the largest concentrations across the cryptocurrency’s historical price distribution.

    Bitcoin price by TradingView

    Approximately 5% of total supply is concentrated around the $80,000 level, while the $82,000 area also represents a significant accumulation zone. The $78,000 level contains another major concentration, accounting for roughly 3.7% of supply.

    This means a large volume of Bitcoin is approaching breakeven after spending months below its acquisition price. Holders who endured a substantial drawdown may be more inclined to sell once their positions return to cost, potentially creating additional resistance.

    US spot Bitcoin ETF investors face a similar dynamic, with the average acquisition cost also estimated around the $80,000–$82,000 range.

    By contrast, the downside structure is more supportive. More than 6% of Bitcoin’s supply is concentrated between $60,000 and $63,000, creating a significant historical demand zone. This area could serve as an important structural floor if the current rally loses momentum.

    The 50-Week Moving Average at $81,081 Is a Key Technical Test

    The 50-week moving average, currently near $81,081, is one of the most closely watched technical levels for Bitcoin.

    Bitcoin has remained below this indicator since November 2025. Historically, major recoveries above the 50-week moving average in 2020 and 2023 were followed by sustained bullish cycles. While the historical sample is limited, the level remains an important reference point for longer-term trend analysis.

    Bitcoin recently moved marginally above its 50-week exponential moving average, but a more decisive move above the 50-week simple moving average would provide a stronger bullish signal.

    The challenge is that the moving average sits directly inside the $80,000–$82,000 supply zone. A major trend indicator and a significant cost-basis cluster are therefore converging within a narrow price range.

    Momentum indicators are also stretched. The 14-day RSI has remained above 80, indicating strongly overbought conditions, while the daily MACD has expanded significantly above its signal line. Composite technical indicators remain tilted toward the bullish side.

    However, overbought conditions alone do not necessarily signal an imminent reversal. A pullback toward $77,489 or even the 200-day EMA near $72,799 could represent a normal consolidation rather than a breakdown, particularly if Bitcoin subsequently establishes support above the 50-week moving average.

    Bitcoin ETF Inflows Strengthen the Rally

    The latest ETF data provides another important source of support.

    US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded eight consecutive sessions of net inflows, with cumulative inflows reaching approximately $2.8 billion. August inflows have exceeded $3 billion, making it the strongest month for Bitcoin ETFs so far in 2026.

    Daily inflows accelerated significantly during the rally, including approximately $297.5 million on August 17, $186.4 million on August 18, $517 million on August 19 and $606 million on August 20.

    Total net assets across US spot Bitcoin ETFs have risen to more than $99 billion, compared with roughly $77 billion in mid-August. However, much of this increase reflects Bitcoin’s price appreciation rather than new capital inflows.

    Despite August’s strong performance, Bitcoin ETFs remain approximately $2.5 billion net negative for 2026. The recent inflows have recovered a significant portion of the capital that exited the products between May and July.

    The demand is not limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum ETFs have also recorded eight consecutive sessions of inflows, while several smaller crypto products linked to XRP, Hyperliquid and Solana have attracted additional capital.

    This suggests that the current move is being supported by spot demand rather than relying entirely on leveraged derivatives.

    BlackRock’s IBIT Leads ETF Demand

    BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has accounted for a substantial share of recent ETF inflows.

    IBIT attracted approximately $1.3 billion during the previous week and accounted for a significant portion of total US spot Bitcoin ETF demand. Its month-to-date inflows have reached roughly $2.64 billion, the strongest monthly performance since October 2025.

    The fund’s share price has also closely tracked Bitcoin’s rally, with IBIT recording a weekly gain of more than 22% and reaching record trading activity during the advance.

    Another notable development is the growth of in-kind ETF conversions. IBIT had recorded roughly $5 billion in in-kind conversions by August 26, compared with $3 billion in October 2025.

    The minimum transaction size for these conversions was reduced from $25 million to $1 million, making the mechanism accessible to a broader group of professional investors and high-net-worth participants.

    In-kind conversions allow investors to move Bitcoin directly into ETF structures without selling the underlying asset in the traditional market. This could reduce the amount of immediately liquid Bitcoin supply and potentially strengthen the structural demand backdrop.

    Bitcoin Rally Remains Relatively Unleveraged

    One of the more encouraging features of the current rally is that derivatives positioning has not expanded dramatically alongside the price.

    Bitcoin futures open interest remains around 700,000 BTC despite the cryptocurrency’s sharp advance. In previous rallies, rapid increases in open interest often indicated that leverage was chasing higher prices, increasing the risk of a subsequent liquidation cascade.

    Recent data instead shows that Bitcoin’s price has risen while coin-denominated open interest has declined. Between August 12–18 and August 23, Bitcoin’s average price climbed roughly 22%, while coin-denominated open interest fell around 11%.

    This suggests that the latest advance has been driven more by spot buying and the unwinding of bearish positions than by aggressive new leverage.

    There has been some renewed derivatives activity over the past 24 hours, with futures volume rising around 6% and open interest increasing approximately 3%. Nevertheless, perpetual funding rates remain relatively moderate, indicating bullish positioning without the extreme leverage typically associated with overheated markets.

    Overall, Bitcoin’s current rally appears to be among the less leveraged advances seen in recent years. The key question now is whether sustained spot demand can absorb the heavy supply between $80,000 and $82,000.

    A decisive break above $81,081 and subsequently $82,850 would strengthen the bullish case. Conversely, rejection from this resistance zone could trigger a correction toward $77,489 and potentially lower support levels.

  • 10 Software Stocks to Watch as Salesforce Jumps After Earnings Beat

    • US software stocks have been among the market’s biggest laggards in 2026 as concerns grow that AI could disrupt traditional software business models.
    • Salesforce’s strong earnings, combined with solid performances from other software companies, suggest that fears surrounding AI disruption may have been exaggerated.
    • Here are 10 potentially undervalued US software stocks that could gain momentum if investor confidence returns to the sector.

    The US software industry has faced significant selling pressure in 2026 as investors increasingly worry that advances in generative AI could automate software development and coding, putting pressure on subscription-driven business models. However, several strategists, including those at JPMorgan, believe the market may have overestimated these risks. Salesforce’s latest earnings report provides fresh evidence that the sector could be positioned for a broader recovery.

    Salesforce shares surged more than 13% in after-hours trading after the company reported adjusted earnings of $5.90 per share, substantially above the $3.27 consensus forecast. Revenue increased 11% year over year to $11.35 billion, slightly exceeding expectations. Net income jumped 87% to $3.53 billion, partly supported by a $2.6 billion gain from Salesforce’s strategic investment in AI startup Anthropic.

    More significantly, Salesforce highlighted accelerating demand for its AI offerings, with Agentforce annual recurring revenue surpassing $1 billion. This reinforces the view that while AI could disrupt certain software models, it may also create a major new growth opportunity for established technology platforms.

    The renewed momentum is spreading across the broader software industry. Since late July, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has climbed nearly 17% from its recent low, substantially outperforming the Nasdaq 100 during the same period. The rebound indicates that investors may be reassessing the potential impact of AI on software companies.

    These undervalued US software stocks could benefit from a broader sector recovery

    Investors seeking exposure to the software rebound beyond Salesforce may find several attractive opportunities. Using the Investing.com stock screener, we identified US-listed software-related companies meeting three key criteria:

    • Market capitalization above $20 billion
    • More than 20% potential upside based on InvestingPro Fair Value, which combines several established valuation methodologies
    • A financial Health Score above 3 out of 5

    This screening process produced a list of 10 stocks.

    According to the screening results, these financially healthy software stocks are currently trading between 20.6% and 59.5% below their estimated Fair Value, suggesting significant potential upside if valuations recover.

    Among the names identified are:

    • Copart, operator of the world’s largest online vehicle auction platform, which relies heavily on technology and data for vehicle assessment and connecting sellers with buyers. The stock has been pressured by the broader technology selloff despite relatively resilient fundamentals. In fiscal Q3 2026, Copart reported EPS of $0.43 versus expectations of $0.41, while revenue rose 2.1% to $1.24 billion. Jay Adair’s return as CEO also brings additional leadership stability following the recent transition. The company is scheduled to report its next earnings on September 9.
    • Uber, which has expanded from its core ride-hailing business into a technology platform leveraging AI for pricing, logistics, and autonomous vehicle development. Its shares have weakened amid broader technology-sector concerns despite strong second-quarter 2026 results. Revenue increased 12% to $14.19 billion, while gross bookings climbed 22%. Investor concerns have largely focused on cautious third-quarter guidance and Uber’s plans to invest more than $10 billion in robotaxis, with the company aiming to operate autonomous services in 15 cities by the end of 2026.

    Several other companies on the list offer even greater potential, particularly from a valuation standpoint.

  • Bitcoin Holds Above $78K as Rebound Rally Cools Following U.S. PCE Data

    Bitcoin traded slightly higher on Wednesday, consolidating after reaching a three-month high as investors turned cautious following fresh U.S. inflation data. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure remained elevated in July, adding uncertainty to the outlook for interest rates ahead of the central bank’s September policy meeting.

    Bitcoin was last up around 0.2% at $78,739.7 by 17:27 ET (21:27 GMT), after surging above the $80,000 level during the previous session.

    Risk sentiment also received support from developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran standoff. A Russian media report indicated that Washington and Tehran had reached a ceasefire agreement that could be announced in the coming days. The report pressured oil prices, while positive comments from Pakistan and renewed Iran-Oman discussions concerning the Strait of Hormuz further supported broader market sentiment.

    U.S. PCE Inflation Remains Elevated Ahead of September Fed Meeting

    Bitcoin’s recent advance has been partly driven by the so-called “debasement trade,” with investors betting that efforts by the U.S. Treasury to stabilize rising bond yields could put downward pressure on the dollar.

    That environment has encouraged capital to move into alternative and scarce assets, including Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and gold.

    However, the latest U.S. inflation figures highlighted the challenge facing the Federal Reserve. The headline PCE price index increased 0.2% month over month in July, following a 0.1% decline in June. On an annual basis, PCE inflation held at 3.7%, slightly exceeding economists’ 3.6% expectation.

    Economic Calendar by TradingView

    Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also remained firm. The measure rose 0.2% from the previous month and 3.3% year over year, matching both the previous annual reading and market expectations.

    The data suggest that inflation continues to cool only gradually, potentially encouraging Fed policymakers to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates. A renewed acceleration in inflation could undermine the debasement trade, as expectations for higher interest rates would likely strengthen the dollar and reduce the appeal of alternative assets such as Bitcoin and gold.

    Bernstein Projects Bitcoin at $150K by 2027 and $300K by 2029

    Bernstein remains bullish on Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects, forecasting that the cryptocurrency could reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and approximately $300,000 at the peak of its next market cycle in 2029.

    The brokerage expects increasing fiscal pressures, rising government debt and higher borrowing costs to encourage policies that gradually weaken currencies. Such an environment could boost demand for scarce assets, including Bitcoin.

    Bernstein’s base-case outlook assumes Bitcoin continues to follow its historical four-year market cycle. The firm projects BTC at approximately $125,000 by the end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027 and around $300,000 in 2029.

    Crypto Market Today: Altcoins Deliver Mixed Performance

    The broader cryptocurrency market also showed mixed momentum as Bitcoin’s rebound began to cool.

    Ether gained around 2.5% to $2,501.98, while XRP declined 3.1% to $1.3952. Solana advanced 0.5%, and BNB climbed 1.4%, while Cardano slipped 0.8%.

    Crypto markets by TradingView

    Among major memecoins, Dogecoin fell approximately 0.5%, whereas $TRUMP gained 1.5%.

    Overall, Bitcoin remains above the $78,000 level, but persistent U.S. inflation and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s September decision could determine whether the latest rebound develops into a broader sustained rally.

    Read more news and analysis

  • US Dollar Index Rebounds as Fiscal Concerns Ease

    • DXY remains supported above the 99.00 level, though upside momentum is constrained by the 200-day EMA around 99.75.
    • Market-implied odds of a September Fed rate hike have fallen to 40.14%, down from roughly 50% on August 10.
    • The Dollar Index’s recent three-month low was driven by an expanded Treasury buyback program rather than a shift in Federal Reserve policy.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades slightly above 99.00, up around 0.25%, after climbing to just below 99.25 following stronger-than-expected US PCE inflation data. However, the move does not necessarily signal renewed expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike, as markets have actually reduced their rate expectations throughout August.

    Fed Rate Expectations Shift Lower

    Markets now price a 40.14% probability of a September 16 rate hike, versus 59.86% for a hold. Expectations for additional tightening have also weakened significantly, with the probability of rates reaching 4.00%-4.25% by December falling to 8.13% from 24.13% on August 10.

    The 2027 outlook points in the same direction, with the probability of two rate increases by June falling to 74.50% from 86.71% two weeks earlier. This suggests traders are increasingly debating when the next hike could arrive rather than how far the Fed will ultimately raise rates.

    Dollar Rebound Follows Fiscal Developments

    The Dollar Index’s recent recovery began from around 98.50, its lowest level in more than three months. That decline followed the US Treasury’s expansion of its long-term debt buyback program, which was aimed at containing borrowing costs.

    The fiscal backdrop remains a concern for the dollar. Treasury purchases of longer-dated bonds while issuing more debt at the short end effectively reduce the average maturity of government borrowing, a development that can weigh on the currency when investors interpret it as an attempt to suppress long-term yields.

    Technically, DXY remains below the 200-day EMA near 99.75 and the 50-day moving average just below 100.00, leaving significant resistance overhead.

    Key Levels to Watch

    • Resistance: 99.25, 99.75, 100.00, then 101.75
    • Support: 99.00, 98.50, followed by levels below 98.00
    • Bias: Bearish while DXY remains below the 200-day EMA near 99.75
    • Bullish invalidation: A daily close above 99.75 could shift attention toward 100.00
    DXY chart by TradingView

    Despite the latest inflation-driven bounce, the broader technical setup remains fragile. A sustained break above 99.75 would be needed to suggest that the Dollar Index is transitioning from a short-term rebound into a more durable recovery.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Gold Pulls Back to Near $4,600 After Reaching Three-Month Peak Following US PCE Data

    Fundamental Analysis

    Gold prices retreated to around $4,610 during Thursday’s Asian trading session, pulling back from a three-month high after the latest US inflation figures largely matched market expectations. The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could still raise interest rates at its next meeting, reducing demand for the non-yielding precious metal.

    The latest figures from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 3.7% year-over-year in July, slightly above the market forecast of 3.6% and unchanged from the previous reading.

    Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy prices, remained at 3.3% annually, matching economists’ expectations. On a monthly basis, both headline and core PCE inflation increased by 0.2%.

    Market participants viewed the report as broadly in line with forecasts, prompting a period of consolidation in gold prices after recent gains. According to analysts, the pullback appears to be driven more by profit-taking than by any major shift in the broader bullish outlook.

    Following the inflation release, traders slightly increased their expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Futures markets now indicate roughly a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, up from about 36% before the data was published.

    Attention now turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium, where investors will closely watch remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Friday for fresh guidance on the future path of US monetary policy. Any indication that policymakers remain concerned about inflation and willing to keep rates higher for longer could create additional headwinds for gold.

    Despite recent volatility in the Treasury market and a notable rally in long-dated US government bonds, analysts at Rabobank note that gold has remained remarkably resilient. The metal has yet to show signs of a deeper selloff, suggesting underlying demand remains intact even as investors reassess interest-rate expectations.

    Technical Analysis

    From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains in a constructive uptrend, with the price continuing to trade above both the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint, reinforcing the bullish market structure.

    XAUUSD chart by TradingView

    Momentum indicators also favor buyers. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.64, remaining below the overbought threshold of 70 but indicating strong upward momentum. The reading suggests that bullish sentiment remains dominant, although the rally may be becoming somewhat stretched in the short term.

    On the upside, the first key resistance level is located near the upper Bollinger Band at $4,745. A sustained move above this barrier could pave the way for further gains, while failure to break higher may trigger profit-taking and a period of consolidation.

    On the downside, initial support is seen around the 100-day SMA at $4,380, with additional support provided by the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint at $4,365. Together, these levels form a significant demand zone that could help contain any near-term pullback. If selling pressure intensifies, the lower Bollinger Band near $3,985 represents the next major support area and a critical longer-term floor for the broader bullish trend.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Oil Slide Fuels Market Momentum as Wall Street Shifts Focus to Nvidia

    The Nasdaq outperformed, semiconductor stocks rebounded, and Nvidia ended a seven-session losing streak. But Tuesday’s move looked less like a broad return to risk-on trading and more like a wave of short covering. The S&P 500 outside the AI complex was largely flat, meaning the headline gains overstated the strength of the broader market.

    Key Takeaways

    • Falling oil prices provided much-needed relief for equities as lower crude prices helped pull long-term Treasury yields down and reduced pressure on growth-stock valuations.
    • The oil retreat reflected improving geopolitical signals, including renewed diplomacy involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, less severe-than-feared sanctions, and continued crude flows despite regional conflict.
    • The stock-market rebound remained concentrated in AI-related names, while broader participation was limited and short covering amplified the gains.
    • Nvidia now has a more favorable backdrop heading into earnings, but elevated positioning and extremely high expectations mean a solid quarter alone may not be enough.

    Oil Drop Gives Markets Room to Breathe

    Tuesday’s rally offered investors some relief from two of the biggest pressures weighing on markets recently: oil prices and long-term bond yields. Crude declined, Treasuries gained, the Nasdaq recovered, and the cross-asset environment became noticeably more supportive of growth stocks.

    Oil was the key catalyst.

    WTI crude fell more than 3% below $82 a barrel, while Brent slipped under $90, as signs of easing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran encouraged traders to unwind some of the risk premium embedded in oil prices.

    Iranian media portrayed Pakistan’s army chief’s visit to Tehran positively, while Iran and Oman discussed efforts to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Washington’s latest sanctions fell short of some of the more aggressive measures investors had feared, particularly those that could have placed greater pressure on international buyers and shipping companies.

    The situation around Hormuz remains fragile, but oil prices do not need a full diplomatic breakthrough to decline. They simply need the next geopolitical headline to appear less threatening than the previous one.

    WTI chart by TradingView

    As crude retreated, traders began taking profits after the market had shifted rapidly from heavily short positioning toward increasingly long exposure. Refined products also started to cool, particularly diesel, which had accumulated an unusually large premium amid Middle East disruptions and attacks on Russian refining infrastructure.

    The decline in oil matters because markets have repeatedly followed the same pattern in recent weeks: higher crude, higher long-term yields, weaker growth stocks and increasing pressure on consumers.

    The AI sector has been battling that combination almost every day. Once oil prices began falling and bonds rallied, some of that pressure eased.

    Treasuries strengthened across the curve, with longer maturities leading the advance. 30-year Treasury yields dropped roughly six basis points on Tuesday and about 10 basis points from Friday, helped by weaker consumer confidence and signs of softer economic momentum.

    With markets pricing only modest additional Fed tightening for the remainder of the year, the lower-yield environment offered some relief to richly valued technology stocks.

    Treasury Secretary Bessent’s expanded long-duration buyback program is also beginning to influence sentiment at the long end of the curve. It has not eliminated concerns surrounding the US fiscal outlook or placed a firm ceiling on yields, but it has made the one-way short-duration trade somewhat less attractive.

    That was enough to give equities some breathing room.

    Nvidia Takes Center Stage

    The Nasdaq led the rebound, chipmakers recovered, and Nvidia finally broke its seven-session losing streak. Yet the move remained relatively narrow. Excluding the AI complex, the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged, while short covering helped make the major indexes look stronger than the underlying breadth suggested.

    That does not make the rally insignificant. Instead, it highlights where investor conviction remains concentrated.

    Capital moved back toward AI stocks as the macroeconomic environment became less hostile. Traders who had bet against the sector were also forced to cover positions as lower yields and weaker oil prices improved the backdrop just ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report.

    Nvidia is now the market’s key test.

    The company is expected to post quarterly revenue of roughly $92 billion, nearly twice the level from a year earlier. But the headline figure is no longer enough. Nvidia is increasingly being treated as the market’s quarterly verdict on whether the enormous AI infrastructure-spending cycle still has enough momentum to justify current valuations.

    And that makes expectations increasingly difficult to beat.

    Early earnings surprises helped establish the AI narrative. Subsequent results turned that narrative into consensus. Now investors are looking for evidence that the growth story remains almost inevitable.

    A strong result combined with upbeat guidance would arrive against a much more supportive backdrop than existed just days ago. Oil is lower, long-term yields have eased, Treasury intervention is more visible, and some excessive positioning has already been reduced.

    If Nvidia confirms that hyperscaler demand remains robust, the recent technology selloff could begin to look more like a healthy reset than a fundamental break in the AI trade.

    The bigger risk, however, is not necessarily an earnings miss.

    Nvidia could deliver a result that would be exceptional for almost any other company, yet still disappoint investors if expectations have already moved beyond conventional definitions of strong performance.

    Positioning makes that risk particularly important.

    Investors have spent years building around the AI trade, favoring companies viewed as beneficiaries while taking more cautious positions toward businesses considered vulnerable to disruption. Semiconductors and software have effectively become opposing sides of the same broader investment theme.

    July’s deleveraging reduced some of that exposure, but it did not eliminate it.

    As long as AI investment continues accelerating, elevated positioning can remain justified. The problem arises when too many investors are already positioned in the same direction and the next catalyst delivers something merely good rather than extraordinary.

    The Broader Market Still Has Plenty to Worry About

    Tuesday’s rally should therefore be viewed as meaningful relief rather than a complete change in market direction.

    Investors have not suddenly resolved the Iran conflict, US fiscal concerns or the debate over AI valuations. What changed was that falling oil prices stopped making all three problems appear even worse.

    Gold continued moving toward $4,700 an ounce before retreating, Bitcoin briefly climbed above $81,000, and the dollar weakened. That suggests the broader debasement trade remains intact, with investors simultaneously buying technology on lower yields and maintaining exposure to hard assets as protection against fiscal and monetary uncertainty.

    That leaves markets heading into Nvidia’s earnings with an unusual combination: lower oil prices, easier financial conditions, persistent fiscal concerns and an AI sector facing enormous expectations.

    The path for equities is becoming clearer.

    If oil continues falling, long-term yields could become easier for investors to tolerate. If yields remain contained, the discount-rate pressure on technology stocks should ease. And if Nvidia delivers the results investors have come to expect, Tuesday’s relief rally could have room to extend.

    For now, oil has removed one of the biggest obstacles facing markets.

    The pressure has eased.

    Now Wall Street is waiting to see whether Nvidia can keep the momentum going.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Gold Targets $5,000 as Rising Rates Expose Deepening Debt Crisis

    In a Monday interview, Fidelity fund manager George Efstathopoulos said gold investors are becoming less concerned about rising yields and increasingly focused on why yields are climbing. He has reportedly doubled his fund’s allocation to gold, signaling growing institutional interest in the precious metal.

    The broader narrative around gold and interest rates may be changing. Rather than simply viewing higher yields as negative for gold, investors are increasingly questioning whether rising rates reflect deeper concerns over US government debt, excessive spending, inflation and declining confidence in policymakers.

    The US Treasury yield outlook could therefore become a key driver for gold. If long-term yields continue to rise, the relationship between rates, fiscal sustainability and investor confidence could potentially push gold significantly higher.

    Technical indicators suggest that gold’s long-term trend remains bullish, with $4,800-$5,000 emerging as a major resistance zone. However, the latest rally has also left the market technically stretched. RSI and Stochastics are both in overbought territory, while elevated market optimism points to the possibility of a short-term correction.

    A pullback of around 5%-7% in gold could be possible, while silver and gold-mining stocks such as GDX could experience deeper corrections of roughly 10%-20%. Such a decline could create another entry opportunity for investors who missed the earlier $3,900-$4,100 buying zone.

    Silver remains comparatively resilient, with $61-$63 offering an important support area. Although Stochastics is overbought, RSI suggests the metal could maintain its near-term momentum even if gold temporarily retreats.

    Gold-mining stocks have rallied particularly sharply. GDX has gained nearly 50% in roughly one month, a pace that is unlikely to be sustainable indefinitely. While the long-term outlook for miners remains bullish, the recent surge may justify taking partial profits while maintaining core positions.

    Investor positioning also warrants attention. Although the gold-stock sentiment index is not yet extremely overbought, its RSI indicates elevated conditions. A further surge toward overbought territory could occur if policymakers fail to address concerns surrounding government spending, debt and rising yields.

    XAUUSD chart by TradingView

    Under a bullish scenario, gold could move toward $5,000 while GDX potentially climbs toward $110-$120. The longer-term outlook for miners could be even more ambitious if the current Elliott Wave structure develops as expected.

    Overall, the key theme is shifting from simply asking “Will higher rates hurt gold?” to asking “Why are rates rising?” If higher yields increasingly reflect fiscal stress and weakening confidence in US institutions, gold could benefit as investors seek alternative stores of value.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Australian and Canadian Dollars Diverge as CPI, Oil Prices and US PCE Data Drive Markets

    Australian Dollar climbs after stronger-than-expected CPI, eyes multi-month peak ahead of US PCE

    • AUD/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, rising toward 0.7170 as supportive fundamentals bolster the pair.
    • Australia’s hotter-than-forecast July CPI keeps expectations of further RBA tightening alive, lending support to the Australian Dollar.
    • The US Dollar remains subdued as Treasury yields decline and hopes for US-Iran diplomacy grow, with traders awaiting the US PCE inflation report.

    AUD/USD attracts fresh buying for a second straight day, advancing toward the 0.7170 region after Australia released its latest consumer inflation data during Wednesday’s Asian session. The pair remains close to its highest level since early June, reached last Friday, as market participants turn their attention to the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for further direction.

    Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that headline CPI inflation eased to 3.5% year-over-year in July from 3.8% in June. However, the figure exceeded the 3.2% market consensus, keeping the possibility of additional interest-rate tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the table and providing fresh support for the Aussie.

    Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to struggle for upward momentum as expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike fade. Lower US Treasury yields, declining oil prices and optimism surrounding potential US-Iran diplomatic progress are also weighing on the greenback. Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the US PCE inflation figures, which could offer additional clues about the Fed’s upcoming policy decisions.

    Recent softer US inflation data has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain rates at its September 15–16 meeting. A CNBC report also indicated that the US Treasury could deploy nearly $1 trillion to support increased buybacks of longer-dated bonds announced last week. At the same time, weaker oil prices have helped ease inflation concerns, contributing to lower Treasury yields and further limiting demand for the US Dollar.

    Overall, the current fundamental backdrop remains favorable for AUD/USD bulls, supporting expectations for further near-term gains. Any downside correction could attract fresh buying interest as long as the pair maintains its broader bullish structure.

    AUD/USD Technical Outlook

    AUDUSD chart by TradingView

    AUD/USD continues to trade above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, currently around 0.7085, signaling a constructive short-term trend. The 0.7085 area serves as immediate support, with buyers likely to defend this level and preserve the broader recovery.

    As long as AUD/USD remains above 0.7085, the bullish bias stays intact, keeping the pair positioned for a potential continuation toward its recent multi-month highs.

    Canadian Dollar slips as oil prices fall, while USD/CAD eyes US PCE for fresh direction

    • USD/CAD attracts modest buying interest as weaker crude prices put pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
    • Escalating US-Canada trade tensions add to CAD headwinds, although softer US Dollar demand limits the pair’s upside.
    • Markets await the US PCE inflation report for signals on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook and the next USD/CAD move.

    USD/CAD edges higher during Wednesday’s Asian session, trading around the mid-1.3800 area while remaining within Tuesday’s range. Investors are now turning their attention to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which could provide a fresh catalyst for the pair.

    The upcoming US inflation figures are expected to offer further clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy outlook and influence demand for the US Dollar. However, fading expectations for an immediate Fed rate hike, declining US Treasury yields and improving hopes for US-Iran diplomatic negotiations continue to limit USD gains and keep a lid on USD/CAD.

    Softer-than-expected US inflation data for July has reduced expectations for near-term Fed tightening, with markets increasingly anticipating that policymakers will leave interest rates unchanged at the September 15–16 meeting. Meanwhile, reports that the US Treasury could deploy nearly $1 trillion to help finance expanded buybacks of longer-term bonds have contributed to further declines in Treasury yields, weighing on the greenback.

    The Canadian Dollar, meanwhile, remains vulnerable to pressure from falling crude oil prices. Growing optimism over a potential diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices to a two-week low after Washington reportedly offered sanctions relief and an end to its naval blockade in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to attacks by regional proxies.

    Additional pressure on the Loonie comes from escalating US-Canada trade tensions. Canada has announced new tariffs on US imports in retaliation for Washington’s 50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion worth of Canadian goods.

    Despite these factors favoring USD/CAD upside, the mixed fundamental picture suggests caution before assuming that the pair can extend its recent recovery from the 1.3730 region, its lowest level in three months, reached last Friday.

    USD/CAD Technical Outlook

    USDCAD chart by TradingView

    USD/CAD maintains a bearish short-term bias while trading below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, currently near 1.3912. This level remains an important resistance zone, and sellers could continue to defend it unless the pair breaks and holds decisively above the moving average.

    A sustained move above 1.3912 would weaken the current bearish structure and potentially signal the beginning of a broader recovery. Until then, the pair remains vulnerable to renewed downside pressure.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Bitcoin Cools After Debasement Trade Drives Best Weekly Gain in Over Three Years

    Bitcoin remained above $78,000 on Tuesday after briefly climbing to a three-month high, as concerns over the health of U.S. government finances weakened the dollar and encouraged investors to increase exposure to cryptocurrencies.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency was little changed at $78,740.1 by 18:06 ET (22:06 GMT), after touching $81,220.4 earlier in the session. Bitcoin gained more than 22% last week, marking its strongest weekly performance since March 2023.

    Bitcoin Rally Gains Momentum as U.S. Bond Buybacks Raise Debasement Concerns

    Bitcoin’s recent rebound has been driven largely by growing concerns about U.S. fiscal conditions and the longer-term outlook for the dollar.

    Investor worries intensified after the U.S. Treasury announced plans last week to nearly double the pace of its bond buybacks in an effort to contain rising Treasury yields.

    The move raised concerns that increased government intervention in the bond market could undermine the dollar, fueling what has become known as the “debasement trade.”

    OCBC analysts noted that the Treasury’s buyback plans have shifted the market narrative away from rising yields and toward concerns about dollar debasement. This has contributed to a weaker U.S. dollar, stronger gold prices and higher inflation expectations, while increasing uncertainty over policy and the Federal Reserve’s independence has added further pressure on the greenback.

    As a result, investors have increasingly moved into gold and cryptocurrencies, which are viewed as relatively insulated from turmoil in traditional bond markets.

    Bitcoin has been a major beneficiary of this trend, while its weak performance earlier in the year has also attracted bargain hunters looking to capitalize on the sharp rebound.

    Bitcoin Rally Triggers $457 Million in Short Liquidations

    Bitcoin’s rapid recovery has also triggered a wave of short-position liquidations.

    According to Coinglass data, more than $457 million worth of Bitcoin short positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours. The surge follows last week’s rally, when billions of dollars in Bitcoin shorts were wiped out as prices accelerated higher.

    Other major cryptocurrencies also experienced significant liquidations, with Ether short positions worth approximately $112.3 million liquidated over the same period.

    Crypto Prices Today: Altcoins Lose Momentum After Strong Rally

    The broader cryptocurrency market pulled back on Tuesday as altcoins also paused following their recent gains.

    Crypto markets by TradingView

    Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell about 1% to $2,449.25, while XRP declined 2%.

    Solana edged up 0.1%, whereas BNB and Cardano dropped 0.9% and 4.1%, respectively.

    In the memecoin segment, Dogecoin fell 3.1%, while $TRUMP dropped 7.6%.

    Overall, the crypto market appears to be taking a breather after a powerful rally, with Bitcoin remaining supported by renewed demand for alternative assets amid growing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability and potential dollar debasement.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Gold Rises Above $4,650 as Silver Holds Above $69 Ahead of US PCE Data

    Gold and silver bars displayed beneath financial market charts

    Gold Climbs Above $4,650 as US Dollar Weakens and Treasury Buybacks Support Demand

    • Gold price extends its rally to around $4,670, marking its highest level in more than three months during early Asian trading on Wednesday.
    • A weaker US Dollar and declining Treasury yields continue to support demand for the precious metal.
    • The Trump administration expanded secondary sanctions on Iran, increasing geopolitical and inflation-related risks.

    Gold (XAU/USD) rises toward $4,670, its strongest level since May 14, as the precious metal benefits from broad US Dollar weakness and expectations surrounding the US Treasury’s bond buyback program.

    US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently indicated that Treasury buybacks could exceed $4 billion, following plans to double purchases of longer-dated government securities. The prospect of reduced Treasury supply has pushed longer-term yields lower and encouraged short-covering in the bond market, indirectly supporting gold.

    A weaker Greenback makes USD-denominated gold more affordable for international buyers, while lower Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold.

    Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are also gaining attention. The Trump administration has expanded secondary sanctions against entities and countries maintaining business relationships with Iran. Escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran could fuel concerns over energy prices and inflation, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.

    However, higher inflation expectations and the possibility of future Fed rate hikes could limit gold’s upside, as higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-interest-bearing bullion.

    Markets will closely watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday for fresh clues about the US interest-rate outlook. Any hawkish signals from Fed officials could trigger some profit-taking in gold.

    Gold Rally May Be Vulnerable to Macro Risks

    TD Securities cautions that the latest gold rally could prove premature. With markets still pricing in potential rate hikes into 2027 and energy prices remaining a significant risk, the bank believes the current move may face challenges before gold can establish another sustained run toward record highs.

    Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Remains Bullish but Overbought

    Gold maintains a bullish near-term structure on the daily chart, trading comfortably above its 100-day SMA and the Bollinger middle band. The price is now approaching the upper portion of the Bollinger range, while the 14-day RSI near 73 indicates overbought conditions.

    XAUUSD chart by TradingView

    On the downside, initial support is located around $4,380, corresponding to the 100-day SMA, followed by the Bollinger middle band near $4,340. A deeper correction could bring the lower Bollinger band around $3,955 into focus.

    To the upside, $4,725 represents the key resistance level near the upper Bollinger band. A sustained daily close above this area could reinforce the bullish trend and expose gold to further gains. Conversely, failure to break above $4,725 may trigger consolidation or a pullback as overbought conditions ease.

    Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Above $69 as Markets Await US PCE Inflation Data

    • Silver price (XAG/USD) rises nearly 1% to around $69.40, supported by falling oil prices and easing concerns over energy supply disruptions.
    • Iran and Oman have resumed discussions aimed at establishing a temporary maritime corridor to facilitate safer navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
    • Investors turn their attention to the US July PCE inflation report and the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

    Silver (XAG/USD) advances toward $69.40 during Wednesday’s Asian session, extending its recovery as crude oil prices decline. The move comes amid growing optimism that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nearly one-fifth of global energy supplies, could gradually resume.

    Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi reportedly discussed an interim framework designed to restore safe maritime traffic through the strategic waterway. The development has reduced concerns over a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

    Lower oil prices could ease inflationary pressures and reduce expectations for aggressive interest-rate hikes from major central banks. This environment tends to benefit non-yielding assets such as silver.

    Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July, due at 12:30 GMT. Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to remain at 3.3% YoY, while monthly growth is forecast at 0.2%, up from 0.1% in June.

    The Jackson Hole Symposium will also be a major market catalyst this week, with investors looking for further signals about the Fed’s approach to inflation and interest rates.

    Jackson Hole Could Shape the Fed Rate Outlook

    TD Securities views Friday’s Jackson Hole event as the week’s key macroeconomic risk. Investors are expected to focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s prepared remarks for clearer guidance on the central bank’s inflation mandate.

    The bank expects the Fed to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, although it notes that persistently elevated inflation and a stabilized labor market could shift policymakers’ attention further toward price stability.

    If the Federal Reserve makes a policy move this year, TD Securities believes a rate hike could be more likely than a rate cut, potentially limiting silver’s upside.

    Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Maintains Bullish Momentum

    On the daily chart, XAG/USD trades around $69.17, remaining comfortably above its 20-day EMA at $65.12. The sustained distance above this dynamic support level keeps the short-term outlook bullish.

    XAGUSD chart by TradingView

    The 14-day RSI stands at 64.65, indicating positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory. This suggests that buyers retain control without the market showing clear signs of exhaustion.

    On the downside, the 20-day EMA around $65.12 represents the first major support level. A sustained break below it could weaken the near-term bullish structure.

    To the upside, the June 17 high at $71.56 is the key resistance level. A decisive break above this barrier could reinforce the bullish trend and open the way toward higher levels.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Wall Street Futures Hold Steady as Markets Await Nvidia Earnings and Fed Signals

    U.S. stock futures were largely unchanged on Monday evening after Wall Street closed mixed, with technology stocks under pressure as investors assessed new U.S. economic measures targeting Iran and looked ahead to a busy week of potentially market-moving events.

    Around 20:50 ET, S&P 500 Futures were flat at 7,669.25, while Nasdaq 100 Futures slipped 0.1% to 29,089.75. Dow Jones Futures were little changed at 53,479.0.

    Futures had traded lower earlier in the session as weakness in semiconductor stocks and caution ahead of Nvidia’s earnings weighed on sentiment.

    During Monday’s regular session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.8%. Nvidia shares dropped 2.9%, while semiconductor peers such as Micron Technology and Broadcom also fell, putting additional pressure on the technology-heavy indexes.

    NDAQ100 chart by TradingView

    Geopolitical developments were another focus for investors as Washington increased economic pressure on Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned countries conducting business with Tehran that they could face secondary sanctions, while the U.S. administration described its latest measures as an “economic D-Day” for Iran.

    Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday following a steep decline a day earlier, providing some relief to the bond market. Brent crude traded below $92 a barrel as markets assessed the potential impact of the new U.S. measures.

    Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined by around 3 basis points to approximately 4.70%, while the 30-year yield eased to about 5.23%. Both yields had climbed to multi-year highs last week.

    Bond yields also came under pressure after CNBC reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent could potentially use the Treasury Department’s nearly $1 trillion Treasury General Account to finance an expansion of government bond buybacks.

    Still, Nvidia is expected to remain the key market focus. The chipmaker is scheduled to release its fiscal second-quarter 2027 results after Wednesday’s closing bell. Investors will closely examine the company’s guidance for signs that the enormous investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to be justified.

    Markets are also preparing for the release of July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data later this week, a closely watched indicator for the Federal Reserve.

    The annual Jackson Hole symposium begins Thursday, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to speak on Friday. His comments could provide fresh clues about the future direction of U.S. interest rates.

    With Nvidia’s earnings, inflation figures, Federal Reserve signals and geopolitical developments all arriving in quick succession, markets have limited room for disappointment. The combination of these catalysts could determine whether the recent equity rally is able to regain momentum.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Retreat as Rally Loses Momentum

    • Bitcoin remains capped below the $80,000 resistance, with $77,000 acting as key near-term support.
    • Ethereum pulls back toward the $2,400 demand area despite recording $697 million in weekly ETF inflows.
    • XRP extends its decline following an overheated rally, with the RSI indicating overbought conditions.

    The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a broad pullback on Monday as investors turn toward profit-taking following last week’s strong rally. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading slightly lower, with gains constrained below the $80,000 level and immediate support around $77,000.

    Ethereum (ETH), meanwhile, remains above near-term support at $2,400 but has yet to build enough momentum to challenge the next major resistance at $2,600. Ripple (XRP) is hovering near $1.48 as its momentum fades after surging 72% last week, climbing from around $1.00 to a peak near $1.70.

    Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP ETFs attract strong inflows

    Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) experienced a significant increase in investor demand, recording $1.92 billion in net inflows through Friday last week. This represented the strongest weekly inflow since October and signaled a notable improvement in risk appetite. Total cumulative inflows increased to $53.71 billion, compared with $51.79 billion the previous week.

    Ethereum spot ETFs also saw a sharp rebound in demand, attracting approximately $697 million in inflows through Friday. This was a substantial turnaround from the $2.26 million in outflows recorded the week before. Cumulative inflows subsequently rose to $12.15 billion from $11.45 billion.

    Institutional interest in XRP also strengthened, with XRP-related ETFs recording $40 million in inflows through Friday, significantly higher than the $2.25 million registered the previous week. SoSoValue data shows cumulative inflows of approximately $1.55 billion, while total assets under management reached $1.33 billion.

    If this stronger demand for crypto investment products continues, it could provide additional support for the broader cryptocurrency market and improve its recovery prospects. However, traders should remain cautious, as renewed profit-taking may limit further gains and potentially trigger a deeper market correction.

    Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Faces Resistance Near $80,000

    Bitcoin is trading around $77,240, remaining comfortably above its major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and preserving a bullish short-term outlook. The 50-day EMA at $66,777, 100-day EMA at $67,410, and 200-day EMA at $71,805 are all positioned below the current price, supporting the underlying uptrend. The SuperTrend indicator also remains below Bitcoin at $70,570, further confirming the positive technical structure.

    Bitcoin price by TradingView

    However, Bitcoin has pulled back after approaching the key $80,000 resistance level. Momentum indicators suggest the market may need to consolidate before attempting another move higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 78, firmly in overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above zero with a strong positive histogram. This combination indicates that bullish momentum is still present but increasingly stretched.

    Immediate support is located around $77,000, while the 200-day EMA near $71,805 provides a stronger technical floor. A deeper correction could bring the SuperTrend level at $70,570 into focus, followed by the 100-day and 50-day EMAs at $67,410 and $66,777, respectively. Given the elevated RSI and MACD readings, traders may find better risk-reward opportunities by waiting for pullbacks toward these support zones rather than chasing Bitcoin near current highs.

    Altcoin Outlook: Ethereum and XRP Maintain Bullish Structures

    Ethereum is trading near $2,444 and continues to hold well above its major moving averages, keeping the short-term outlook constructive. The price remains comfortably above the 50-day EMA at approximately $1,985 and the 100-day EMA near $1,973, while the 200-day EMA around $2,141 provides additional confirmation of the broader bullish trend.

    Ethereum price by TradingView

    Momentum remains strong, with the MACD staying in positive territory and the RSI near 77. However, the overbought RSI suggests that Ethereum’s recent advance may be becoming stretched and could require a period of consolidation.

    Immediate support is positioned around $2,400, followed by the 200-day EMA at $2,141. Further downside could bring the $1,985-$1,973 area into focus, where the 50-day and 100-day EMAs create a strong support cluster. On the upside, a sustained move above $2,600 could open the door toward the psychological $3,000 level.

    XRP is trading around $1.45 after a powerful rebound, with the price now positioned well above its key moving averages. XRP has moved above the 50-day EMA at $1.14, 100-day EMA at $1.18, and 200-day EMA at $1.35, highlighting a strong bullish impulse.

    XPR price by TradingView

    The RSI near 77 indicates that XRP is also firmly overbought, while the positive MACD confirms that upward momentum remains strong. Nevertheless, the stretched technical conditions increase the possibility of short-term consolidation or a pullback.

    The SuperTrend indicator at $1.25 represents the first significant downside support and could attract buyers if XRP retreats. The reclaimed 200-day EMA at $1.35, followed by the 100-day and 50-day EMAs at $1.18 and $1.14, respectively, provides additional support underneath the market. A healthy correction toward $1.25 could allow momentum to reset before XRP attempts another leg higher.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Capital.com (VN)

    English version

    Khám phá Trải nghiệm Giao dịch Hiện đại

    CFD là các công cụ tài chính phức tạp và tiềm ẩn rủi ro cao khiến nhà đầu tư có thể mất tiền nhanh chóng do tác động của đòn bẩy. Có tới 79,75% tài khoản nhà đầu tư cá nhân bị thua lỗ khi giao dịch CFD với nhà cung cấp này. Bạn nên cân nhắc liệu mình có hiểu rõ cách thức hoạt động của CFD hay không, cũng như liệu bạn có đủ khả năng chấp nhận rủi ro cao về việc mất tiền hay không.

    Được công nhận là Công ty Tăng trưởng Nhanh nhất tại Trung Đông và Cyprus trong hai năm liên tiếp, Capital.com là một trong những nhà môi giới năng động nhất trong ngành, phục vụ hơn 880.000 khách hàng và xây dựng được danh tiếng vững chắc nhờ sự đổi mới không ngừng.

    Công ty cung cấp một trong những danh mục CFD tiền điện tử lớn nhất trên thị trường, cho phép khách hàng tiếp cận hơn 450 tài sản kỹ thuật số khác nhau.

    Đánh giá Tổng quan

    Capital.com phù hợp với cả những người mới bắt đầu lẫn các nhà giao dịch giàu kinh nghiệm.

    Đối với người mới, nền tảng cung cấp tài khoản giao dịch thử nghiệm (demo) thân thiện với người dùng, giúp làm quen với biểu đồ, vị thế giao dịch, nguyên tắc ký quỹ (margin) và các chỉ báo kỹ thuật. Bên cạnh đó, Capital.com còn cung cấp hệ thống tài liệu đào tạo phong phú, hỗ trợ người dùng nâng cao kiến thức giao dịch. Nhà giao dịch cũng được hưởng lợi từ dịch vụ hỗ trợ khách hàng đa ngôn ngữ 24/7 trên toàn cầu. Với khả năng tùy chỉnh quy mô vị thế giao dịch linh hoạt, người dùng có thể quản lý mức độ rủi ro hiệu quả hơn.

    Đối với các nhà giao dịch giàu kinh nghiệm, Capital.com cũng là một lựa chọn hấp dẫn. Nền tảng được trang bị các công cụ biểu đồ trực quan, công cụ vẽ phân tích và hơn 100 chỉ báo kỹ thuật hỗ trợ phân tích thị trường chuyên sâu. Thông qua giao dịch sử dụng đòn bẩy, nhà giao dịch có thể kiểm soát các vị thế lớn hơn với số vốn ký quỹ thấp hơn. Tuy nhiên, cần lưu ý rằng đòn bẩy có thể làm gia tăng cả lợi nhuận tiềm năng lẫn mức thua lỗ.

    Ngoài ra, nhà môi giới này còn nổi bật với tốc độ khớp lệnh cực nhanh, trung bình chỉ 0,014 giây, cùng quy trình rút tiền hiệu quả khi 99% yêu cầu rút tiền được xử lý trong vòng 24 giờ trong năm 2026.

    Ưu điểm và Nhược điểm

    Ưu điểm

    • Giao diện trực quan, thân thiện với người dùng trên nhiều thiết bị.
    • Tiếp cận hơn 5.000 thị trường CFD khác nhau.
    • Cung cấp hơn 100 công cụ phân tích kỹ thuật.
    • Giao dịch không tính phí hoa hồng (có thể áp dụng các loại phí khác).
    • Tốc độ thực hiện lệnh trung bình chỉ 0,014 giây nhờ hệ thống máy chủ nội bộ.

    Nhược điểm

    • Dịch vụ không hỗ trợ khách hàng tại Hoa Kỳ.
    • Chỉ cung cấp các sản phẩm giao dịch CFD, không hỗ trợ mua bán trực tiếp tài sản cơ sở như cổ phiếu hoặc tiền điện tử thực.

    Độ Tin Cậy & An Toàn

    Môi trường Giao dịch Đáng Tin cậy

    Việc lựa chọn một nhà môi giới uy tín là yếu tố rất quan trọng, và Capital.com luôn xem đây là trách nhiệm hàng đầu. Công ty chú trọng tuân thủ các quy định pháp lý và áp dụng các biện pháp bảo mật mạnh mẽ nhằm bảo vệ tài sản cũng như thông tin cá nhân của khách hàng.

    Quản lý và Cấp phép:
    Capital.com cùng các công ty thành viên được cấp phép và quản lý bởi nhiều cơ quan tài chính hàng đầu thế giới, bao gồm FCA (Vương quốc Anh), CySEC (Síp), ASIC (Úc), SCB (Bahamas) và SCA (UAE). Các giấy phép này yêu cầu nhà môi giới tuân thủ những tiêu chuẩn nghiêm ngặt của ngành tài chính, giúp mang lại sự bảo vệ và niềm tin cao hơn cho nhà giao dịch. Khách hàng tại Việt Nam được phục vụ bởi Capital.com Online Investments Ltd, đơn vị được quản lý bởi Ủy ban Chứng khoán Bahamas (SCB).

    Phòng chống Gian lận:
    Để giảm thiểu rủi ro gian lận, Capital.com sử dụng công nghệ mã hóa tiên tiến, quy trình xác minh danh tính nghiêm ngặt và các hệ thống giám sát liên tục nhằm phát hiện và ngăn chặn các hành vi truy cập trái phép, góp phần bảo vệ an toàn cho tài khoản khách hàng.

    Bảo vệ Tiền của Khách hàng:
    Bảo mật là một phần cốt lõi trong hoạt động của Capital.com. Một trong những biện pháp quan trọng là việc sử dụng tài khoản tách biệt (segregated accounts), đảm bảo tiền của khách hàng được lưu giữ riêng biệt với nguồn vốn hoạt động của công ty. Cách tiếp cận này giúp tăng tính minh bạch và bổ sung thêm một lớp bảo vệ cho các nhà giao dịch.

    Tình trạng Giấy phép Quản lý (Regulatory Status)

    Cơ quan Quản lýĐược cấp phép
    ASIC (Úc)Có
    CySEC (Síp)Có
    DFSA (Dubai)Không
    SCB (Bahamas)Có
    CMA (UAE)Có
    EFSAKhông
    FCA (Vương quốc Anh)Có
    FMA (New Zealand)Không
    FSA (Seychelles)Không
    FSCA (Nam Phi)Không
    FSCKhông
    FIKhông
    JFSA (Nhật Bản)Không
    MAS (Singapore)Không

    Các Công cụ Giao dịch

    Tiếp cận Đa dạng Thị trường

    Capital.com cung cấp quyền tiếp cận hơn 5.000 thị trường CFD, bao gồm cổ phiếu, chỉ số, hàng hóa, ngoại hối, tiền điện tử và ETF. Với hơn 450 CFD tiền điện tử, đây là một trong những nhà cung cấp CFD crypto lớn trong ngành. Nền tảng liên tục mở rộng danh mục sản phẩm, từ các chỉ số dựa trên hợp đồng tương lai và chỉ số giao ngay đến hàng hóa nông nghiệp và ETF tập trung theo từng ngành.

    Nhà giao dịch có thể tiếp cận CFD đối với:

    • Hơn 4.000 cổ phiếu, bao gồm Tesla, Amazon, Meta và các cổ phiếu thuộc thị trường mới nổi.
    • Hơn 125 cặp tiền tệ, bao gồm các cặp chính, phụ và ngoại lai.
    • Hơn 450 tài sản kỹ thuật số.
    • Các chỉ số lớn trên toàn cầu, từ US 500 và Germany 40 đến các chỉ số chuẩn của từng khu vực.
    • Hàng hóa, bao gồm vàng, dầu thô, khí tự nhiên, yến mạch, thịt lợn nạc, gỗ và nhiều sản phẩm khác.
    • ETF theo dõi các chỉ số, vàng, các ngành công nghiệp và nhiều chủ đề đầu tư khác.
    • Các sản phẩm mới, bao gồm CFD dựa trên hợp đồng tương lai liên quan đến biến động thị trường, khí thải và các chỉ số của EU.

    Capital.com được đánh giá là một trong những nhà môi giới CFD có tốc độ niêm yết thị trường mới nhanh. Ví dụ, khi TrumpCoin và MelaniaCoin ra mắt vào thứ Sáu, hai tài sản này đã được đưa vào giao dịch trên Capital.com vào thứ Hai tiếp theo, cho thấy khả năng tích hợp thị trường mới nhanh chóng của nền tảng. Nhà môi giới này cũng nhanh chóng bổ sung các cổ phiếu IPO mới niêm yết, giúp nhà giao dịch tiếp cận kịp thời những cơ hội đầu tư mới nổi.

    Các Công cụ Giao dịch Được Cung cấp

    Công cụ Giao dịchCó sẵn
    CFD hàng hóaCó
    CFD ForexCó
    CFD tài sản kỹ thuật sốCó
    CFD ETFCó
    Hợp đồng tương lai (Futures)Không
    CFD chỉ sốCó
    CFD cổ phiếuCó
    Trái phiếuKhông
    Quyền chọn (Options)Không

    Các Loại Tài Khoản

    Lựa Chọn Phù Hợp Cho Mọi Nhà Giao Dịch

    Capital.com cung cấp nhiều loại tài khoản khác nhau, được thiết kế nhằm đáp ứng nhu cầu và sở thích riêng của các nhà giao dịch với nhiều mức độ kinh nghiệm. Nhà môi giới tập trung xây dựng trải nghiệm giao dịch có thể tùy chỉnh, đề cao tính linh hoạt và các tính năng hướng đến người dùng.

    Tài khoản Demo

    Đối với những nhà giao dịch mới hoặc những người muốn hoàn thiện chiến lược, Capital.com cung cấp tài khoản demo hữu ích. Môi trường không rủi ro này cho phép nhà giao dịch mô phỏng các điều kiện thị trường thực tế, phát triển kỹ năng và xây dựng sự tự tin mà không cần sử dụng tiền thật.

    Tài khoản Cá nhân

    Tài khoản bán lẻ tiêu chuẩn của Capital.com cung cấp quyền truy cập vào tài khoản CFD. Khách hàng cá nhân được hưởng cơ chế bảo vệ số dư âm, quyền tiếp cận hơn 5.000 thị trường, mức đòn bẩy được quản lý theo quy định và nhiều tính năng khác.

    Tình trạng Các Loại Tài khoản

    Loại Tài khoản / Tính năngCó sẵn
    Tài khoản DemoCó
    Tài khoản miễn phí qua đêm (Swap-Free)Có
    Tài khoản được quản lý (Managed Account)Không
    Phù hợp với người mới bắt đầuCó
    Phù hợp với nhà giao dịch chuyên nghiệpCó
    Tài khoản dành cho khách hàng Hoa KỳKhông

    * Điều kiện sử dụng phụ thuộc vào quốc gia cư trú của khách hàng.

    Hoa hồng và Phí giao dịch

    Cơ cấu giá minh bạch cho giao dịch chủ động

    Tại Capital.com, minh bạch về chi phí có nghĩa là không có các khoản phí ẩn, giúp khách hàng tiếp cận thị trường với cơ cấu chi phí rõ ràng và dễ hiểu. Các khoản phí mà khách hàng có thể gặp bao gồm:

    • Không tính hoa hồng trên các thị trường (các loại phí khác vẫn có thể áp dụng).
    • Không tính phí nạp tiền, rút tiền và phí lưu ký (các loại phí khác vẫn có thể áp dụng).
    • Không tính phí qua đêm đối với phần lớn các vị thế CFD có đòn bẩy 1:1*.
    • Spread cạnh tranh – nhà môi giới chủ yếu tạo doanh thu từ spread thay vì các khoản phí ẩn.
    • Chi phí giao dịch Forex thấp – spread EUR/USD trung bình ở mức 0,67 pip, thấp hơn mức trung bình của ngành.

    Phí tài trợ qua đêm áp dụng đối với Khí tự nhiên (Natural Gas), Cacao Mỹ (US Cocoa), Chỉ số biến động VIX và các cặp Forex có đồng Lira Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ (TRY), bất kể mức đòn bẩy được sử dụng.

    Tiền nạp tối thiểu

    Capital.com có mức yêu cầu vốn ban đầu tương đối thấp. Nhà giao dịch có thể bắt đầu với khoản tiền nạp tối thiểu chỉ 120 USD khi nạp tiền thông qua thẻ và Apple Pay. Mức tiền nạp tối thiểu có thể khác nhau đối với hình thức chuyển khoản ngân hàng.

    Phí giao dịch

    Chi phí giao dịch của nhà môi giới được tích hợp trực tiếp vào spread, giúp nhà giao dịch dễ dàng xác định chi phí trước khi thực hiện giao dịch mà không phải lo lắng về các khoản phí phát sinh bất ngờ.

    Phí tài khoản

    Không. Các pháp nhân thuộc tập đoàn không thu phí duy trì tài khoản hoặc phí không hoạt động, mang lại sự linh hoạt hơn cho khách hàng trong việc quản lý tài khoản mà không phát sinh thêm chi phí.

    Phí nạp tiền

    Nhà giao dịch có thể nạp tiền vào tài khoản Capital.com mà không phải trả phí nạp tiền. Tuy nhiên, ngân hàng, đơn vị phát hành thẻ tín dụng hoặc các nhà cung cấp dịch vụ thanh toán bên thứ ba có thể áp dụng phí riêng. Capital.com không chịu trách nhiệm đối với những khoản phí này.

    Các phương thức thanh toán bao gồm chuyển khoản ngân hàng tức thời, Apple Pay, các loại thẻ tín dụng phổ biến và nhiều phương thức khác tùy thuộc vào khu vực pháp lý.

    Phí rút tiền

    Capital.com không thu phí rút tiền. Tuy nhiên, ngân hàng, đơn vị phát hành thẻ hoặc các nhà cung cấp dịch vụ thanh toán bên thứ ba có thể áp dụng các khoản phí riêng. Capital.com không chịu trách nhiệm đối với những khoản phí này.

    Phí qua đêm

    Phí qua đêm có thể thay đổi và được áp dụng cho phần lớn các vị thế được giữ qua đêm. Capital.com không tính phí qua đêm đối với phần lớn CFD sử dụng đòn bẩy 1:1.

    Phí tài trợ qua đêm vẫn áp dụng đối với Khí tự nhiên, Cacao Mỹ, Chỉ số biến động VIX và các cặp Forex có đồng Lira Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ (TRY), bất kể mức đòn bẩy.

    Phí chuyển đổi tiền tệ

    Khi các giao dịch — bao gồm nhưng không giới hạn ở lợi nhuận, thua lỗ và phí tài trợ qua đêm — cần được chuyển đổi sang hoặc từ đồng tiền mặc định của tài khoản, phí chuyển đổi tiền tệ sẽ được áp dụng dựa trên tỷ giá hiện hành tại thời điểm chuyển đổi.

    Phí Guaranteed Stop-Loss

    Capital.com thu phí khi sử dụng lệnh Guaranteed Stop-Loss (cắt lỗ được đảm bảo) như một công cụ quản trị rủi ro, và khoản phí này được tính khi lệnh Guaranteed Stop-Loss được thực hiện.

    Trading Platforms

    Empowering Traders with User-Friendly Options

    Capital.com offers a range of trading platforms equipped with features designed to facilitate informed trading, market analysis, and risk management. The platforms provide advanced charting tools, including technical indicators and drawing tools, to help traders analyze price movements and patterns. The user-friendly interfaces cater to both beginners and experienced traders, offering intuitive navigation and customization options. In addition, TradingView integration enhances the overall charting experience. However, it is important to note that CFD trading is complex and carries a high level of risk.

    Compatibility with MetaTrader 4 (MT4) and MetaTrader 5 (MT5) enables advanced technical analysis. Although not explicitly stated, traders can utilize sophisticated tools to manage risk and optimize their strategies. 

    Capital.com’s proprietary platform is designed to enhance the trading experience, with a strong emphasis on user-focused design and innovation. The trading platforms are compatible with both Windows and Mac, providing multi-device access for greater flexibility and convenience.

    Web Trading Platform

    Capital.com’s web-based trading platform provides convenient access to the markets without requiring software installation. Traders can access charts, place trades, and manage their portfolios directly through their web browser.

    Mobile Trading App

    The broker offers user-friendly mobile trading apps for both Android and iOS devices, allowing traders to stay connected to the markets and make informed decisions while on the go.

    Desktop Trading Platform

    There is currently no dedicated desktop version of the platform available. However, traders can access Capital.com through its online web platform, which can be used on both PC and Mac.

    Các Tính năng Đặc biệt

    Hỗ trợ Ra quyết định

    Capital.com là một nhà môi giới nổi bật nhờ cung cấp hệ thống hỗ trợ toàn diện cho các nhà giao dịch. Nhà môi giới cung cấp cảnh báo giá theo thời gian thực và thông báo đẩy (push notification), giúp nhà giao dịch cập nhật những biến động của thị trường. Bên cạnh đó, các công cụ phát hiện xu hướng hỗ trợ người dùng đưa ra quyết định kịp thời hơn.

    Các tính năng so sánh và phân tích của nền tảng cho phép nhà giao dịch đánh giá và xem xét các chiến lược của mình, trong khi những công cụ quản trị rủi ro nâng cao giúp tạo ra một môi trường giao dịch có kiểm soát hơn.

    Capital.com cũng chú trọng mạnh đến đào tạo và giáo dục giao dịch, thể hiện qua hệ thống khóa học được xây dựng bài bản, video, bài viết, bảng thuật ngữ và các buổi hội thảo trực tuyến (webinar). Ngoài ra, nhà môi giới liên tục cải thiện trải nghiệm giao dịch demo, giúp người dùng rèn luyện và hoàn thiện kỹ năng mà không phải sử dụng vốn thực tế.

    Capital.com cũng cá nhân hóa nội dung và các thông tin phân tích dựa trên sở thích của từng người dùng.

    Nhìn chung, Capital.com nổi bật nhờ cung cấp nhiều công cụ và nguồn tài nguyên đổi mới, giúp nhà giao dịch nâng cao khả năng phân tích, quản lý rủi ro và đưa ra quyết định giao dịch hiệu quả hơn.

    Nghiên cứu và Đào tạo

    Hỗ trợ Phát triển Kiến thức

    Capital.com cam kết cung cấp các nguồn tài liệu giáo dục hữu ích nhằm hỗ trợ nhà giao dịch trong suốt quá trình học tập và giao dịch. Mặc dù hệ thống đào tạo khá toàn diện, vẫn còn một số điểm có thể được cải thiện nếu so sánh với các nhà môi giới hàng đầu trong ngành.

    Tổng quan Trung tâm Kiến thức:
    Trung tâm học tập của Capital.com được tổ chức bài bản, cung cấp nhiều tài liệu giáo dục dưới các hình thức dễ tiếp cận, phù hợp với nhà giao dịch ở nhiều cấp độ kinh nghiệm khác nhau.

    So sánh Nội dung Đào tạo:
    Capital.com cung cấp lượng lớn nội dung giáo dục, từ những khái niệm cơ bản đến các chiến lược giao dịch nâng cao. Nhà môi giới có các bài viết, video hướng dẫn và webinar, đáp ứng nhiều phong cách học tập khác nhau. Tuy nhiên, một số đối thủ hàng đầu vẫn cung cấp hệ thống tài liệu đa dạng và chuyên sâu hơn.

    Những Cải tiến trong Đào tạo:
    Trong những năm gần đây, Capital.com đã có những bước tiến đáng kể khi bổ sung webinar tương tác, các buổi đào tạo do chuyên gia hướng dẫn và các cẩm nang giao dịch chuyên sâu, qua đó nâng cao trải nghiệm học tập.

    Nguồn Nội dung:
    Các tài liệu giáo dục của Capital.com được xây dựng dựa trên kiến thức và góc nhìn từ nhà giao dịch giàu kinh nghiệm, chuyên gia tài chính và các nhà phân tích thị trường, mang đến cho người học nhiều góc nhìn đa dạng.

    Những Điểm Có thể Cải thiện:
    Capital.com có thể tăng mức độ tương tác và hiệu quả học tập bằng cách phát triển các khóa học tương tác, tích hợp câu hỏi kiểm tra và chức năng theo dõi tiến độ. Việc đa dạng hóa định dạng nội dung, chẳng hạn như podcast và các nghiên cứu tình huống (case study), cũng có thể giúp trải nghiệm học tập phong phú hơn.

    Nội dung Video:
    Capital.com sở hữu thư viện video đào tạo tương đối lớn, bao quát nhiều chủ đề từ hướng dẫn sử dụng nền tảng đến các chiến lược giao dịch nâng cao. Các video phù hợp với nhà giao dịch ở nhiều cấp độ kỹ năng, mặc dù việc bổ sung thêm những nội dung phân tích chuyên sâu có thể nâng cao hơn nữa hiệu quả học tập qua video.

    Mở rộng Nguồn Tài liệu Đào tạo:
    Để phục vụ nhà giao dịch tốt hơn, Capital.com có thể mở rộng các chủ đề đào tạo, đặc biệt về phân tích kỹ thuật nâng cao và chiến lược quản trị rủi ro, từ đó cung cấp những kiến thức chuyên sâu và mang tính thực tiễn cao hơn.

    Hỗ trợ Khách hàng

    Giao dịch Tự tin

    Capital.com cam kết đáp ứng nhu cầu của khách hàng thông qua hệ thống hỗ trợ khách hàng đa ngôn ngữ và toàn diện, được thiết kế nhằm giải đáp các câu hỏi và xử lý những vấn đề của khách hàng một cách nhanh chóng.

    Nhà môi giới cung cấp nhiều kênh liên lạc khác nhau, giúp nhà giao dịch dễ dàng tiếp cận bộ phận hỗ trợ khi cần.

    Hỗ trợ trực tiếp 24/7 được cung cấp, cho phép nhà giao dịch kết nối với nhân viên hỗ trợ để nhận được sự trợ giúp kịp thời. Đáng chú ý, Capital.com mở rộng dịch vụ hỗ trợ ngoài giờ giao dịch thông thường, giúp khách hàng vẫn có thể yêu cầu hỗ trợ ngay cả khi thị trường đóng cửa.

    Nhà môi giới cung cấp hỗ trợ đa kênh, bao gồm tính năng live chat thân thiện với người dùng trên website và nền tảng giao dịch Capital.com. Điều này cho phép khách hàng trao đổi theo thời gian thực với đội ngũ hỗ trợ có kiến thức chuyên môn. Nhà giao dịch cũng có thể liên hệ qua email, tạo ra một kênh trao đổi chính thức để gửi câu hỏi và phản hồi.

    Capital.com còn nâng cao chất lượng hỗ trợ thông qua mục FAQ và Trung tâm Trợ giúp (Help Center) toàn diện, cung cấp câu trả lời nhanh cho các câu hỏi thường gặp cũng như nhiều tài liệu tự hỗ trợ hữu ích. Nhà môi giới cũng cung cấp các bài viết và hướng dẫn giáo dục nhằm giải đáp những vấn đề phổ biến liên quan đến giao dịch.

    Nhìn chung, dịch vụ hỗ trợ khách hàng của Capital.com nổi bật nhờ khả năng hỗ trợ đa kênh và thời gian phục vụ vượt ngoài giờ làm việc thông thường.

    Tuy nhiên, vẫn còn một số điểm cần cải thiện, đặc biệt về mức độ dễ dàng tiếp cận nhân viên hỗ trợ và tốc độ phản hồi trong một số trường hợp.

    Mở Tài khoản

    Quy trình Đơn giản và Thân thiện với Người dùng

    Việc mở tài khoản tại Capital.com là một quy trình tương đối đơn giản, được thiết kế nhằm giúp nhà giao dịch bắt đầu hành trình giao dịch một cách thuận tiện. Giao diện thân thiện cùng hướng dẫn từng bước giúp quá trình đăng ký trở nên dễ dàng, ngay cả đối với người mới.

    Thông tin Cá nhân:
    Nhà giao dịch cần cung cấp các thông tin cá nhân cơ bản như họ tên, địa chỉ email và số điện thoại. Ngoài ra, họ sẽ phải trả lời một số câu hỏi nhằm xác định liệu mình có đáp ứng các yêu cầu pháp lý tại địa phương để giao dịch CFD hay không.

    Giấy tờ Xác minh:
    Người đăng ký cần cung cấp giấy tờ tùy thân, bằng chứng địa chỉ cư trú và các tài liệu cần thiết khác để xác minh tài khoản.

    Thời gian Mở tài khoản:
    Toàn bộ quá trình đăng ký, bao gồm cả việc xác minh giấy tờ, thường mất khá ít thời gian. Sau khi hoàn tất việc cung cấp đầy đủ các tài liệu cần thiết, tài khoản thường được xác minh trong vòng vài giờ hoặc nhanh hơn.

    Nhìn chung, quy trình mở tài khoản của Capital.com nổi bật nhờ giao diện dễ sử dụng, tốc độ xác minh nhanh và nhiều loại tài khoản. Tuy nhiên, quy trình này vẫn có thể được cải thiện hơn nữa nếu bổ sung thêm các tài liệu hướng dẫn và kiến thức giao dịch ngay trong giai đoạn đăng ký.

    Nạp và Rút tiền

    Thuận tiện và An toàn

    Capital.com cung cấp cho nhà giao dịch trải nghiệm quản lý nguồn vốn an toàn và thuận tiện thông qua nhiều phương thức nạp và rút tiền khác nhau. Nhà môi giới chú trọng bảo mật tài chính bằng cách sử dụng công nghệ mã hóa tiên tiến và tuân thủ các yêu cầu quản lý nghiêm ngặt, bao gồm tách biệt tiền của khách hàng và các quy định về phòng chống rửa tiền (AML).

    Nạp tiền:
    Nhà giao dịch có thể nạp tiền vào tài khoản thông qua các phương thức an toàn như chuyển khoản ngân hàng, thẻ tín dụng/thẻ ghi nợ phổ biến và nhiều loại ví điện tử*, mang lại sự linh hoạt và tốc độ xử lý thuận tiện.

    Rút tiền:
    Khách hàng có thể rút tiền thông qua chuyển khoản ngân hàng, thẻ tín dụng/thẻ ghi nợ đủ điều kiện hoặc ví điện tử, mang đến nhiều lựa chọn thuận tiện và dễ tiếp cận. Thời gian xử lý rút tiền có thể khác nhau tùy thuộc vào phương thức được lựa chọn và quy trình xác minh của nhà môi giới.

    Capital.com không thu phí nạp hoặc rút tiền. Tuy nhiên, các nhà cung cấp dịch vụ thanh toán bên thứ ba có thể áp dụng các khoản phí riêng.

    Nhìn chung, dịch vụ nạp và rút tiền của Capital.com, kết hợp với các biện pháp bảo mật chặt chẽ và chính sách minh bạch về phí, góp phần tạo nên uy tín của nhà môi giới trong việc quản lý nguồn vốn khách hàng. Tuy nhiên, việc cải thiện thời gian xử lý rút tiền đối với một số phương thức thanh toán có thể giúp nâng cao hơn nữa trải nghiệm của người dùng.

    Lưu ý: Các phương thức thanh toán khả dụng có thể khác nhau tùy theo quốc gia cư trú của khách hàng.

    Kết luận

    Capital.com là một lựa chọn đáng cân nhắc đối với các nhà giao dịch nhờ nền tảng thân thiện với người dùng, danh mục công cụ giao dịch đa dạng và hệ thống tuân thủ quy định chặt chẽ. Nền tảng phù hợp với cả người mới bắt đầu và các nhà giao dịch có kinh nghiệm. Tuy nhiên, Capital.com không chấp nhận khách hàng tại Hoa Kỳ và trong một số trường hợp có thể áp dụng phí qua đêm cùng một số loại phí khác.

    Nhìn chung, Capital.com được đánh giá là một trong những lựa chọn nổi bật trong ngành, mang đến trải nghiệm giao dịch tương đối toàn diện.

    Tuy nhiên, trước khi đưa ra quyết định, nhà giao dịch nên tìm hiểu kỹ về nhà môi giới, đồng thời đánh giá xem Capital.com có phù hợp với mục tiêu giao dịch và khả năng chấp nhận rủi ro của mình hay không. Giao dịch tài chính luôn tiềm ẩn rủi ro. Vì vậy, nghiên cứu kỹ thông tin, xem xét các điều khoản và điều kiện, đồng thời đưa ra quyết định dựa trên đầy đủ thông tin là những bước quan trọng trước khi mở tài khoản tại Capital.com hoặc bất kỳ nhà môi giới nào khác.

    Lưu ý: Phí tài trợ qua đêm áp dụng đối với Khí tự nhiên (Natural Gas), Cacao Mỹ (US Cocoa), Chỉ số biến động VIX và các cặp Forex có đồng Lira Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ (TRY), bất kể mức đòn bẩy được sử dụng.

    Cảnh báo Rủi ro

    79,75% tài khoản của nhà đầu tư cá nhân bị thua lỗ khi giao dịch spread betting và CFD với nhà cung cấp này. Bạn nên cân nhắc liệu mình có hiểu rõ cách thức hoạt động của CFD hay không và liệu mình có đủ khả năng chấp nhận rủi ro cao về việc mất tiền hay không.

    Bạn muốn nâng cao kiến thức giao dịch của mình? Hãy khám phá trang Kiến thức để tìm hiểu các hướng dẫn thực tế, những phân tích hữu ích và nguồn tài liệu giáo dục về giao dịch.

  • What Happens When Everything Starts to Look the Same?

    Genuine community requires time, effort, shared values, and sustained commitment—qualities that cannot simply be packaged, commoditized, and optimized for profit or delivered through a government program.

    That creates a fundamental problem in a profit-driven economy: durability is often less profitable than planned replacement. To maximize revenue, products are increasingly designed to become obsolete, unsupported, or outdated, whether through planned obsolescence, shorter product cycles, discontinued software support, constant upgrades, or relentless cost-cutting that gradually erodes quality.

    The same profit logic also weakens genuine competition. Because intense competition can squeeze margins, companies have incentives to eliminate it through consolidation, monopolies, and cartels. Consumers are then presented with a manufactured version of “competition” that creates the appearance of choice, even when supposedly competing brands belong to the same conglomerate or offer essentially identical products at similarly high prices.

    Once a monopoly or cartel controls an industry, disposability becomes the natural outcome. Durable products and genuinely high-quality services can reduce repeat purchases, making them less attractive to businesses focused on maximizing profits. With meaningful competition removed, consumers are left choosing between different versions of essentially the same low-quality, expensive offering.

    The enormous marketing industry helps maintain this illusion of choice. It persuades consumers that they are exercising meaningful freedom while masking a system in which the available options have become increasingly similar. The result is a form of privatized control in which consumers appear to have endless choices but often encounter only different versions of the same underlying model.

    The defining characteristic of disposable products and services is interchangeability. Once something becomes fully commoditized, its distinctive qualities disappear. One mass-produced breakfast cereal becomes difficult to distinguish from another; ultra-processed snacks become variations of the same formula; insurance policies become increasingly difficult to differentiate; and automated customer-service systems often deliver the same frustrating experience regardless of the company behind them.

    Commoditization also makes globalized production and supply chains possible. When products, services, and even labor are interchangeable, companies can reproduce the same systems almost anywhere. The same products appear across markets, customer-service frustrations become universal, and digital systems increasingly trap people in identical automated loops.

    Eventually, the logic of interchangeability reaches human beings themselves. As consumers and employees, people can increasingly be treated as interchangeable units within a global marketplace. Workers can be replaced by cheaper labor elsewhere, while consumers can be targeted and served through standardized systems designed for scale rather than individuality.

    When a product reaches the end of its useful life, it is discarded or, occasionally, recycled. People who become economically obsolete face a less visible version of the same process. There is no enormous landfill for discarded workers; instead, individuals can simply be pushed aside, isolated in their homes, or left without meaningful economic participation.

    Sometimes people are effectively “recycled” into lower-paying jobs or cheaper tiers of service. Someone may technically remain able to purchase healthcare, for example, while facing enormous deductibles and increasingly restrictive coverage. When the cost becomes unaffordable, people delay treatment and ultimately bear the consequences of a system that still technically considers them a customer.

    The same process is visible in employment. Losing a stable job with benefits does not necessarily mean being excluded from the labor market. Instead, workers can be absorbed into the growing gig, delivery, and rideshare economy, where labor itself becomes increasingly interchangeable and commoditized. When workers eventually burn out, they can simply disappear from the system with little institutional responsibility for what happens next.

    In a world where everything is disposable, repairing what is broken becomes economically inconvenient. If existing systems generate enormous profits, fundamentally redesigning them to make them affordable, durable, and genuinely competitive threatens those profits. Maintaining an inefficient system can therefore become more attractive than fixing it.

    The preferred solution may then be technological substitution rather than structural reform. Instead of redesigning expensive or inefficient systems, companies can replace human workers with AI agents and automated processes. If governments ultimately absorb some of the social costs created by displaced workers, businesses can still view the transition as financially beneficial.

    Yet there is a deeper irony in a world where everything is supposedly interchangeable and disposable: the things that matter most cannot be commoditized. Genuine community has value precisely because it is unique. It emerges from particular places, particular people, shared experiences, relationships, memories, trust, and history. Those qualities cannot be mass-produced or replaced with an interchangeable commercial product.

    What can be sold, however, is the appearance of community. Billionaires can purchase private bunkers, while affluent consumers can enter exclusive gated developments filled with carefully designed amenities and manufactured social experiences. But these substitutes cannot automatically create authentic community, because genuine belonging requires something money and centralized systems struggle to manufacture: time, effort, shared values, trust, and meaningful relationships.

    Read more news and analysis

  • 5 Major Financial Surprises of the Past 25 Years

    5 Black Swan Financial Trends That Emerged After 9/11

    I want to focus on the kind of extreme, unexpected events that Nassim Nicholas Taleb famously called “Black Swans” in his 2007 book of the same name.

    The ultimate Black Swan event occurred 25 years ago next month, when four hijacked, fuel-laden airliners were deliberately flown toward America’s financial and political centers—New York City and Washington, D.C.

    But beyond the immediate human and geopolitical consequences, 9/11 also set in motion several surprising financial trends. Here are five of the most striking.

    Surprise 1: From Budget Surpluses to $2 Trillion Annual Deficits

    From 1998 through 2001, the U.S. government recorded four consecutive annual budget surpluses—the first four-year streak in roughly a century.

    At the time, the national debt stood at around $5 trillion, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the debt could potentially be eliminated within a decade, by 2011.

    That forecast proved wildly wrong.

    Instead, the United States experienced its first four consecutive $1 trillion-plus annual budget deficits during Barack Obama’s first term, from 2009 through 2012.

    Today, annual deficits are approaching $2 trillion, with little indication of meaningful relief. To put the scale into perspective, the CBO estimates that in July 2026 alone, the federal government recorded a monthly deficit larger than the annual deficits recorded in any year before the 2008 financial crisis.

    That is an extraordinary transformation from where America stood in 2001.

    Surprise 2: The Longest War in American History—and Perhaps More to Come

    The explosion in federal spending was fueled in part by the “War on Terror” that followed 9/11.

    Rather than being a single conflict, it evolved into prolonged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Afghanistan war lasted from 2001 to 2021, while the Iraq War began in 2003 and formally ended in 2011.

    According to the U.S. Department of Defense, the direct cost of those wars launched during George W. Bush’s first term reached at least $1.47 trillion—far above the estimates offered by then-Vice President Dick Cheney in March 2003.

    Broader estimates are even more staggering. According to Costs of War research, the United States has spent more than $8 trillion on post-9/11 wars and military operations across at least 85 countries, with the total economic burden potentially reaching $10 trillion to $14 trillion once veterans’ care and interest costs are included.

    The irony is particularly striking in Afghanistan. The central objective was to find Osama bin Laden, the mastermind behind 9/11. Yet he remained at large for another decade before being discovered in Pakistan.

    The result was a 20-year war whose costs vastly exceeded what most Americans could have imagined in September 2001.

    And now, with tensions involving Iran, the possibility of additional military commitments remains an uncomfortable question.

    Surprise 3: The “Free Money” Era and the Rise of Modern Monetary Theory

    Another extraordinary development emerged from the aftermath of the financial crisis.

    To support a weakened economy, the Federal Reserve adopted a Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and launched multiple rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE).

    For roughly seven years, the federal funds rate remained between 0% and 0.25%.

    Under Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, policymakers were determined to avoid the deflationary mistakes of the Great Depression. The Fed instead targeted approximately 2% inflation while using extremely low interest rates and large-scale asset purchases to inject liquidity into the financial system.

    The result was an unprecedented monetary environment in which borrowing became extraordinarily cheap and liquidity appeared almost limitless.

    It resembled an American experiment in what later became popularly associated with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT): enormous fiscal spending supported by extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy.

    When the Fed eventually began raising rates during Donald Trump’s presidency, financial markets pushed back hard. The sharp market selloff in late 2018 helped demonstrate just how dependent markets had become on cheap money.

    Surprise 4: Regulations Designed to Prevent Crises Created New Risks

    The post-9/11 era also produced a sweeping expansion of government regulation and financial oversight.

    Following the 2008 financial crisis, the Dodd-Frank Act introduced extensive new rules designed to reduce systemic risk and prevent another financial meltdown.

    But financial markets have a habit of adapting.

    As traditional banks and financial institutions faced tighter restrictions, capital and risk-taking increasingly migrated toward less-regulated areas of the financial system.

    The growth of private funds and other alternative investment vehicles illustrates the problem. Investors seeking higher returns can still find highly leveraged or high-interest opportunities outside the most heavily regulated parts of the financial system.

    The lesson is uncomfortable but familiar:

    Regulation can change where risk lives without necessarily eliminating the risk itself.

    You cannot legislate away human greed, excessive optimism, or reckless risk-taking. When one door closes, financial innovation often finds another.

    Surprise 5: The Stock Market Kept Climbing Anyway

    And then comes the biggest positive surprise.

    Despite terrorism, two prolonged wars, enormous fiscal deficits, the 2008 financial crisis, unprecedented monetary intervention, rising regulation, geopolitical turmoil and repeated market shocks, U.S. stocks continued to climb dramatically after 9/11.

    The gains have not always represented cheap valuations, and there have certainly been painful crashes along the way. But the long-term direction has remained remarkably resilient.

    That resilience offers a reminder of Adam Smith’s famous observation in 1778 that “there is a lot of ruin in a nation.”

    Britain survived the setbacks that followed the American victory at Saratoga. It survived the devastation of World War II. And the United States absorbed the enormous shocks of 9/11 and everything that followed.

    Yet its economy continued to innovate, companies continued to generate profits, and investors continued to participate in the growth of American enterprise.

    That may be the biggest Black Swan of all: despite everything thrown at it since September 11, 2001, the American economic machine kept moving forward.

    Read more news and analysis

  • How to Think Like an Investor Rather Than a Speculator

    How to Think Like an Investor, Not a Speculator

    Every few months, the same chart seems to appear in your feed. It shows what would have happened if you had invested just one dollar in the stock market a century ago—and how that single dollar could have grown into a considerable fortune.

    The message underneath is almost always the same: buy and hold. Time in the market matters more than trying to predict the perfect entry point.

    $1 invested in the market.

    The idea is compelling, and for the most part, it is correct.

    But there is one important detail those charts rarely mention: they were designed around an investor who does not actually exist.

    If your goal is to build lasting wealth rather than simply admire historical market returns, you first need to understand how an investor thinks. And surprisingly few people explain that part before telling you to buy stocks and hold them forever.

    The “Stocks for the Long Run” Story Has a Catch

    Let’s give the long-term investing argument its due. It is not a false promise.

    Over more than a century, U.S. equities have generally moved higher. Patient investors who own productive businesses have historically been rewarded. I am not suggesting that people should avoid stocks.

    The problem is what those impressive long-term charts quietly assume about the person looking at them.

    They assume you:

    • Have more than a century to invest.
    • Will never panic and sell during a downturn.
    • Will never need to withdraw your money at the wrong time.
    • Started investing when valuations were reasonable.

    For an actual person with a career, a mortgage, children, and a fixed retirement date, those assumptions are unrealistic.

    Once you remove them, the seemingly perfect chart becomes much less reassuring. The market shown in the chart is a smooth line rising over decades. The market investors actually experience is filled with crashes, recessions, corrections, and long periods of recovery.

    You Don’t Get the Market’s 126-Year Average

    The average return of the last century tells you something about history, but it does not tell you what your own investment experience will look like.

    Most people do not begin serious investing until their 30s or later. They may have three or four decades to build wealth before retirement. That means they are likely to experience only a handful of major market cycles.

    So while a 126-year average is useful historical information, it is not necessarily the return you will have available when you need to spend your money.

    There is another uncomfortable reality: markets spend a surprising amount of time below previous highs.

    The long-term upward trend is real, but investors do not experience that trend as a straight line. Much of the journey consists of recovering from losses and attempting to reach previous peaks.

    Investing in the market real vs promised returns

    That distinction matters because markets can grow wealth over time without delivering the smooth compounding path that many investors imagine.

    Compounding works best when capital remains intact. A major permanent loss can dramatically change the mathematics.

    Average Returns Can Hide Real Risk

    Financial commentary often talks about stocks producing average annual returns of 8% to 10% over long periods. But those figures are historical averages, generally before inflation, taxes, fees, and the impact of large drawdowns.

    Real investors do not receive an average return every year.

    They experience a sequence of gains and losses.

    That sequence matters enormously.

    An investor who entered the market near a major valuation peak could spend many years simply recovering lost purchasing power. Reaching the original starting value is not the same thing as generating wealth.

    Breaking even is not growth. It is simply recovering from a previous loss.

    This becomes especially important as retirement approaches. Someone in their 20s may have decades to recover from a major bear market. Someone approaching retirement may not have that luxury.

    Think Like an Investor, Not a Speculator

    So what is the alternative?

    The first step is understanding the difference between investing and speculation.

    An investor buys an ownership interest in a business, considers what that business is worth, evaluates the price being paid, and manages the risk of being wrong.

    A speculator is primarily focused on the market price and the possibility of selling the asset to someone else for more money later.

    Investor vs speculator

    In simple terms:

    • Investors focus on value.
    • Speculators focus on price.

    Speculation itself is not necessarily immoral or foolish. Some people deliberately speculate with money they can afford to lose and understand the risks involved.

    The real danger comes when someone believes they are investing while actually speculating.

    That creates a dangerous mismatch: they expect the security of long-term investing while taking the risks associated with short-term speculation.

    You can see this behavior in meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, leveraged trades, short-dated options, and even sports betting.

    Speculation vs Investing

    The technology has changed, but the underlying psychology has not.

    When people feel financially behind, the temptation to find a shortcut becomes even stronger. The desire for rapid wealth can turn speculation into something that looks like a financial plan.

    That is precisely where things can go wrong.

    The Margin of Safety

    The distinction between investing and speculation is not a new concept.

    Benjamin Graham and David Dodd emphasized the importance of analyzing an investment and demanding a reasonable degree of protection against being wrong.

    That idea is commonly known as the margin of safety.

    The principle is straightforward: pay less than what an asset is reasonably worth so that you have room for error.

    If you estimate that a business is worth $100 per share, buying it at $50 provides considerably more protection than buying it at $120.

    The margin of safety when investing

    Of course, estimating value is never perfect. Your assumptions can be wrong. The business can deteriorate. The economy can change.

    That is exactly why the margin of safety matters.

    It provides a buffer between your estimate of value and the price you actually pay.

    And sometimes the best investment decision is to do nothing.

    If nothing is available at a sensible price, holding cash and waiting can be more rational than forcing money into an overpriced opportunity.

    Patience is not inactivity. Sometimes patience is risk management.

    Two Questions Every Investor Should Ask

    Once you accept that your investing horizon is limited and that avoiding speculation matters, many investment decisions become much simpler.

    Two questions become particularly important.

    First: What price am I paying?

    Valuation matters because the price you pay influences the return you can reasonably expect.

    Valuations vs market returns

    Pay too much for future earnings and your future returns may be disappointing even if the underlying business performs well.

    Pay a reasonable price, and you create more room for attractive long-term returns.

    Average market return from high valuations

    This is not about predicting the exact market top or bottom. It is about recognizing that starting valuations influence future outcomes.

    Second: How much time do I actually have?

    This question is often overlooked.

    A 25-year-old with decades until retirement, stable income, and the ability to keep contributing during downturns has a very different risk profile from a 58-year-old who expects to retire within a few years.

    The market is the same.

    The investor is not.

    Time is one of the most valuable assets an investor has—and once it is gone, it cannot be recovered.

    Does Buy and Hold Still Work?

    Yes—but only when the circumstances are right.

    For investors who have:

    • A 30-year-plus investment horizon.
    • Reasonable starting valuations.
    • Low investment costs.
    • Consistent contributions.
    • The discipline to stay invested during major downturns.

    A diversified, low-cost index fund held for decades can be an exceptionally effective strategy.

    The philosophy behind buy-and-hold investing remains powerful because it reduces two major sources of poor performance: high costs and emotional decision-making.

    Investing in the market, two outcomes

    But notice how many conditions are attached.

    The strategy works best when the investor can satisfy all of those requirements.

    Real people, however, are not always perfectly patient. They may lose their jobs, face unexpected expenses, approach retirement, or panic during a severe market decline.

    And the starting valuation can make a major difference even when two investors follow exactly the same strategy.

    The strategy may not have failed the investor who started near a market peak.

    The problem may simply have been the price paid at the beginning.

    How to Start Investing With the Right Mindset

    So where should a new investor begin?

    Not with the latest stock tip.

    How to start investing table

    Not with a hot sector.

    And not with an app designed to make investing feel like a video game.

    Start with the fundamentals:

    1. Understand your financial goals.
    2. Determine your investment time horizon.
    3. Build an appropriate emergency reserve.
    4. Understand the risk you can realistically tolerate.
    5. Consider valuation before buying.
    6. Keep costs and taxes under control.
    7. Diversify your portfolio.
    8. Have a plan for market downturns.
    9. Avoid confusing speculation with investing.
    10. Be willing to wait when attractive opportunities are unavailable.

    None of this sounds particularly exciting.

    It will not make you rich overnight, and it probably will not become a viral social-media post.

    But this is how investors protect and grow capital over the long term.

    The goal is not simply to participate in the market. The goal is to remain financially strong enough to stay invested through the entire journey.

    Read more news and analysis

  • US Dollar Forecast: Warsh’s Jackson Hole Debut and Key Inflation Test

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed the week almost unchanged near 98.80 after briefly dipping into the 98.50 area before recovering. The Greenback remains close to its lowest level since May, with weaker Treasury yields playing a key role. The US Treasury’s decision to at least double buybacks of longer-term debt has pushed yields lower, weighing on the Dollar despite stronger-than-expected US business activity data.

    Gold climbed above $4,600 to reach a three-month high, while the Australian Dollar advanced to a multi-month peak. Crude Oil also remained elevated near a four-week high as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued.

    US Dollar Forecast: Key Events Ahead

    The upcoming week is heavily weighted toward the second half, with limited Dollar catalysts early on. The main highlights arrive on Wednesday with the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, followed by Friday’s key events: new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote and the preliminary annual benchmark revision to US Nonfarm Payrolls.

    With the Dollar already trading near recent lows, a dovish tone from Warsh or a significant downward revision to employment data could put additional pressure on the Greenback.

    EUR/USD Outlook

    EUR/USD finished the week around 1.1680, remaining below the psychological 1.1700 level after another failed attempt to break higher. With few major Eurozone catalysts before Friday’s inflation data, the pair is likely to remain primarily driven by Dollar movements and developments at Jackson Hole. A stronger Eurozone HICP reading could reduce expectations for further ECB easing and provide support for the Euro heading into month-end.

    GBP/USD Outlook

    GBP/USD ended the week around the mid-1.3600s after retreating from its midweek highs. With little significant UK economic data scheduled, the pair is likely to take its cues mainly from the US Dollar and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Trading could remain subdued before Friday before potentially seeing increased volatility.

    USD/JPY Outlook

    USD/JPY closed the week slightly above 159.00 as a softer Dollar was offset by continued Yen weakness caused by wide interest-rate differentials. Tokyo CPI data on Friday will be closely watched for clues about the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. Stronger inflation could reinforce expectations for a September rate hike and put downward pressure on USD/JPY.

    AUD/USD Outlook

    AUD/USD climbed toward 0.7170, reaching its highest level in several months and outperforming other major currencies. The RBA minutes kick off the week, but Tuesday’s monthly inflation report will be the key event. Headline inflation is expected to ease toward 3.2% from 3.8%. A weaker-than-expected reading could reduce remaining expectations for RBA tightening and challenge the Australian Dollar’s recent rally.

    WTI Oil Outlook

    WTI Crude ended the week in the high-$80s, close to a four-week high. With no major oil-specific economic releases ahead, geopolitical developments remain the main driver. Washington’s shift toward economic sanctions against Iran instead of additional military strikes has reduced immediate concerns about a supply disruption, although stalled negotiations continue to support oil prices.

    Gold Outlook

    Gold closed above $4,600 at a three-month high, supported by a weaker US Dollar, declining real yields and renewed safe-haven demand amid Middle East tensions. The upcoming PCE inflation data and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech will be crucial for the precious metal. A dovish signal from the new Fed Chair could extend Gold’s rally, while a more cautious stance on interest rates could trigger a deeper pullback.

    Read more news and analysis

  • YWO Broker

    YWO – Multi-Regulated CFD and Forex Broker with a $10 Minimum Deposit

    Established in 2024 and based in South Africa, YWO is a CFD and forex broker regulated across multiple jurisdictions. The broker provides access to more than 1,000 trading instruments, including forex pairs, indices, stock CFDs, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs. Licensed by the FSCA in South Africa, FSC Mauritius, and MISA in Comoros, YWO focuses on affordable trading conditions, offering raw spreads from 0.0 pips, a low $10 minimum deposit, MT5 copy trading, and automatic swap-free account availability without requiring a separate application.

    Expert Review

    Launched in 2024, YWO operates through several regulated entities across three jurisdictions. Its key advantages include a very accessible $10 minimum deposit, access to a Zero Spread account from the same entry level, raw spreads starting at 0.0 pips, and automatic swap-free trading. The broker also stands out for supporting more than 50 payment methods across Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South Asia, providing an unusually broad funding network for a relatively new broker.

    Customer support is available 24/7, with the company reporting average response times of one to five minutes. Traders can reach support through popular channels such as WhatsApp, Telegram, Facebook Messenger, and X. YWO also offers an extensive research suite featuring daily market analysis, fundamental insights, stock screening tools, technical scanners, sentiment data, earnings calendars, and analyst research reports.

    However, the broker does have some drawbacks. Platform support is limited to MetaTrader 5, with no access to MT4, cTrader, or TradingView. Language options are currently restricted to English, Arabic, Vietnamese, and Thai. Additionally, as a broker with less than two years of operating history, it lacks a long-term track record. Clients from the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, Canada, and Australia are not eligible to open accounts.

    Pros and Cons

    Pros

    • Low entry requirement with just a $10 minimum deposit
    • Raw spreads starting from 0.0 pips on eligible account types
    • Access to over 1,000 instruments across six major asset classes
    • No fees charged for deposits or withdrawals
    • Regulated through multiple entities across different jurisdictions
    • Automatic swap-free account access for qualifying traders

    Cons

    • Platform offering is primarily limited to MetaTrader 5 (MT5)
    • Services are unavailable to residents of the United States, European Union, and United Kingdom
    • Relatively new broker with a limited operating track record
    • No support for cTrader, TradingView, or MetaTrader 4 (MT4) platforms

    Trust and Safety

    Regulation and Client Fund Protection

    YWO operates through three regulated entities across Mauritius, South Africa, and the Comoros. YWO (MU) Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Mauritius under licence GB25205550, while YWO (PTY) Ltd holds a South African Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) licence #54357. The FSCA is an established financial regulator with requirements covering client fund segregation, conduct standards, and ongoing regulatory reporting.

    YWO (CM) Ltd is registered with the MISA in the Comoros Union under registration BFX2025026. No previous regulatory violations have been reported. Client funds are maintained in segregated accounts, separate from the broker’s operating capital, and negative balance protection is available to retail clients.

    However, YWO does not participate in a statutory investor compensation scheme. Traders should therefore verify which YWO entity will hold their account and carefully review the specific regulatory protections applicable to that entity before depositing funds.

    Regulatory Status

    Regulatory BodyStatus
    ASICNo
    CySECNo
    DFSANo
    EFSANo
    FCANo
    FMANo
    FSA (SC)No
    FSCAYes
    FSC MauritiusYes
    JFSANo
    MASNo
    MiFIDNo
    MISA (Comoros)Yes

    Tradable Instruments

    1,000+ Instruments Across Six Asset Classes

    At the time of this review, YWO provides access to approximately 1,020 trading instruments spanning forex, indices, stock CFDs, commodities, cryptocurrencies, ETFs, metals, and energy markets.

    The forex offering includes more than 50 major, minor, and exotic currency pairs, with leverage of up to 1:1000. Index CFDs cover major global benchmarks such as US30, SPX500, NAS100, UK100, and GER40, while stock CFDs provide exposure to a broad selection of major US and international companies.

    Traders can also access commodity CFDs covering agricultural products, soft commodities, and raw materials, along with precious metals such as gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD). Energy products include WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and natural gas. Crypto CFDs cover major digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, with leverage of up to 1:200.

    ETF CFDs are also available, providing exposure to funds focused on equities, sectors, and thematic investment strategies. However, YWO does not currently offer physical stocks, bonds, options, or exchange-traded futures.

    Instrument Availability

    Trading InstrumentAvailable
    CommoditiesYes
    CurrenciesYes
    CryptocurrenciesYes
    ETFsYes
    FuturesNo
    IndicesYes
    StocksYes
    BondsNo
    OptionsNo

    Account Types

    Multiple Live Account Options with a $10 Minimum Deposit

    YWO provides several account options designed to accommodate different trading styles and experience levels. These include the Standard Account, which offers commission-free trading with variable spreads; the Zero Spread Account, featuring raw spreads from 0.0 pips with a $7 round-turn commission; and the Micro/Cent Account, which allows traders to use smaller position sizes for live-market practice.

    YWO also offers Islamic Accounts with automatic swap-free eligibility, eliminating the need for a separate application. Demo accounts are available for 90 days and provide full access to the MT5 trading platform, allowing users to practice before moving to live markets.

    A $10 minimum deposit applies across the live account options, creating a relatively low barrier to entry and making it easier for traders to transition from demo to live trading. However, corporate, joint, and managed accounts are not currently offered.

    Account Availability

    Account FeatureAvailable
    Demo AccountYes
    Islamic AccountYes
    Segregated AccountYes
    Managed AccountNo
    Suitable for BeginnersYes
    Suitable for ProfessionalsYes
    Available to US TradersNo

    Commission and Fees

    Low-Cost Trading with No Deposit or Withdrawal Fees

    YWO uses a straightforward two-tier pricing structure. The Standard Account follows a spread-only model with no trading commission, while the Zero Spread Account provides raw spreads starting from 0.0 pips and charges a $7 round-turn commission per lot.

    YWO does not charge deposit or withdrawal fees across its available payment methods. However, an $10 monthly inactivity fee applies after a 90-day grace period to accounts with no trading activity.

    Account Minimum

    The minimum deposit is $10 across all live account types, including Standard, Zero Spread, Micro/Cent, and Islamic accounts.

    Trading Fees

    Standard and Micro/Cent accounts use a spread-based pricing model without commissions. The Zero Spread account combines raw spreads from 0.0 pips with a $7 round-turn commission per lot.

    CFD Fees

    For Standard accounts, CFD trading costs are incorporated into the spread. Zero Spread accounts instead use raw spreads from 0.0 pips plus the applicable $7 round-turn commission.

    Forex Fees

    The typical EUR/USD spread on the Standard Account is 0.6 pips. On the Zero Spread Account, spreads start from 0.0 pips, with a $7 round-turn commission per lot. Maximum forex leverage is 1:1000.

    Futures Fees

    Exchange-traded futures are not currently offered by YWO, so futures trading fees are not applicable.

    Account Fee

    YWO does not charge ongoing account maintenance or management fees.

    Inactivity Fee

    A $10 monthly inactivity fee is charged after a 90-day grace period when an account has no trading activity.

    Deposit Fee

    $0 across all supported deposit methods.

    Withdrawal Fee

    $0 across all supported withdrawal methods.

    Overnight Funding Fee

    Overnight swap charges vary depending on the instrument and are applied according to the applicable MT5 rates. Traders who qualify for an Islamic Account can access swap-free trading automatically without submitting a separate application.

    Currency Conversion Fee

    0.00% — YWO does not charge a separate currency conversion fee.

    Guaranteed Stop Order Fee

    Guaranteed stop-loss orders are not available.

    Trading Platforms

    MT5 Available Across Desktop, Web, and Mobile

    YWO offers MetaTrader 5 (MT5) across Windows and Mac desktop computers, web browsers, and iOS and Android mobile devices. The platform provides advanced charting, multiple order types, Expert Advisors (EAs) for automated trading, custom indicators, and access to YWO’s full range of 1,000+ instruments.

    API access is also available for system trading and custom integrations, giving more advanced traders additional flexibility. However, YWO currently does not support MT4, cTrader, TradingView, or a proprietary trading platform.

    Mobile Trading

    The MT5 mobile application is available on both iOS and Android. Traders can place and manage live orders, monitor positions, analyze charts, manage their accounts, and access copy-trading functionality directly from their mobile devices.

    Web Trading

    YWO provides a browser-based MT5 web platform that can be accessed from any internet-connected device without installing additional software. This makes it convenient for traders who prefer to trade directly through a web browser.

    Desktop Trading

    MT5 desktop is available for Windows and Mac. The desktop version supports Expert Advisors, custom indicators, multi-chart layouts, advanced order types, and API connectivity for automated or system-based trading.

    Platform Availability

    Trading PlatformAvailable
    MT4No
    MT5Yes
    cTraderNo
    Proprietary PlatformNo

    Desktop & Web

    PlatformAvailable
    Windows DesktopYes
    Mac DesktopYes
    Web PlatformYes

    Mobile

    PlatformAvailable
    AndroidYes
    iOSYes

    Unique Features

    Zero Spread from $10, Automatic Swap-Free Trading, and Extensive Regional Payment Support

    YWO distinguishes itself through three key features. First, its Zero Spread Account offers raw spreads starting from 0.0 pips with a minimum deposit of just $10, giving traders access to tight pricing without a large initial capital requirement.

    Second, eligible traders can receive automatic swap-free account access, eliminating the separate application process commonly required for Islamic accounts at other brokers.

    Third, YWO supports a broad range of regional payment methods across multiple markets, making deposits and withdrawals more accessible to traders in Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.

    Research and Education

    Extensive Research Tools and Educational Resources

    YWO provides a broad selection of market research tools, including daily market analysis, fundamental data, stock screeners, technical scanners, sentiment indicators, earnings and economic calendars, analyst reports, trading signals, and live market news.

    Its educational resources cover traders at different experience levels, with video tutorials, articles and guides, eBooks, PDFs, trading glossaries, structured courses, beginner materials, advanced strategy content, demo-account tutorials, and platform guides.

    The broker also hosts live trading streams twice a week, providing market commentary and practical chart analysis for traders who prefer a more interactive learning format.

    Customer Support

    24/7 Customer Support with Reported 1–5 Minute Response Times

    YWO offers customer support 24 hours a day, seven days a week, with a stated average response time of between one and five minutes.

    Support is available through live chat, including human and AI assistance, email, WhatsApp, Telegram, Facebook Messenger, X, callback requests, in-app support, a help centre, FAQs, and an online contact form. Dedicated account managers are also available.

    Customer support is offered in English, Arabic, Vietnamese, and Thai. Traditional telephone support is not currently available.

    Account Opening

    Digital Account Opening in Under One Hour with a $10 Minimum Deposit

    YWO’s account-opening process is fully digital and can reportedly be completed in under one hour. Prospective clients can visit the broker’s website, choose an account type, and submit a government-issued identification document and proof of address through the client portal.

    A 90-day demo account is available for traders who want to test the platform before committing real funds. The minimum deposit for live accounts is $10, while Islamic account eligibility is activated automatically without requiring a separate application.

    YWO does not accept clients from the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, EU member states, or FATF-listed jurisdictions.

    Deposits and Withdrawals

    50+ Regional Payment Methods with Zero Fees

    YWO supports a wide selection of deposit and withdrawal methods, with zero fees stated across its payment options. Available methods include bank transfers, Visa and Mastercard, cryptocurrencies, local bank transfers, Apple Pay, Google Pay, and numerous regional payment solutions.

    Depending on the region, these include UPI in India; GCash, GrabPay, and PayMaya in the Philippines; MADA and KNET in the Middle East; MTN, Vodafone, Airtel Tigo, M-Pesa, Airtel Money, and Tigo Pesa in Africa; OVO, DANA, QRIS, and LinkAja in Indonesia; FPX and DuitNow in Malaysia; EasyPaisa and JazzCash in Pakistan; and MoMo, ZaloPay, and VietQR in Vietnam.

    YWO states that deposits can be processed instantly and withdrawals may be completed on the same day, although actual processing times can vary depending on the payment method and jurisdiction.

    Final Thoughts

    YWO presents a relatively accessible offering for retail traders, particularly those in international and emerging markets. Its $10 minimum deposit, Zero Spread account, automatic swap-free eligibility, extensive instrument selection, and broad regional payment network are notable advantages for a broker established in 2024.

    However, traders should also consider its relatively short operating history, MT5-only platform offering, limited language selection, and the regulatory protections associated with the specific YWO entity holding their account.

    Before opening a live account, traders should verify the applicable legal entity, review the regulatory protections available in their jurisdiction, and carefully check the broker’s complete fee schedule and trading conditions.

    Contact Information

    Are you ready to trade now?

    Open Account

    Ready to improve your trading knowledge? Explore our Knowledge page for practical guides, insights, and educational resources.

  • Bitcoin Maintains Bullish Trend as Elliott Wave Analysis Points to $77K Target

    Since our July 1 update, we have maintained a bullish outlook on Bitcoin (BTC), supported by the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and Technical Analysis (TA). In our previous analysis, we identified the possibility of a five-wave advance, provided BTC remained above $62,474 — our third key warning level for the bulls.

    Four weeks later, Bitcoin successfully held that support, with its lowest daily close reaching $62,727 on August 1. Since then, BTC has entered what appears to be a powerful third-of-a-third wave advance, reinforcing the bullish technical structure.

    Bitcoin Elliott Wave Outlook

    Our earlier forecast for further upside has so far played out as expected. We continue to monitor a potential five-wave move — labeled gray waves i, ii, iii, iv and v — developing within the larger green Wave 3. Under this scenario, Bitcoin could eventually target the $77,000 area, as long as BTC holds above $65,418, which currently represents our third warning level for the bulls.

    An important technical condition is the relationship between the fourth and first waves. In a standard impulsive structure, gray Wave iv cannot overlap gray Wave i. If such an overlap occurs, there is a greater than 60% probability that the current Bitcoin uptrend has already reached its peak.

    Long-Term Bitcoin Price Forecast

    With Bitcoin continuing to show strong bullish momentum, we also maintain our view that the previously observed four-year cycle has likely been invalidated. That cycle had remained effective for roughly 12 years and previously pointed to a potential market low between late November and late January.

    However, Bitcoin’s ongoing impulsive price action supports the possibility that a significant low was established at the July 1 bottom. We therefore continue to track a potential five-wave advance from that level.

    If this Elliott Wave structure develops as anticipated, it would provide stronger confirmation that a major Bitcoin market low is already in place. In that scenario, the next significant upside objective could be the Fibonacci-based $164,000–$337,000 target zone for the red Wave v within the larger black Wave 5.

    Overall, Bitcoin’s current Elliott Wave structure remains constructive, with $65,418 serving as a key support level and $77,000 emerging as the next major upside target.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Gold Under Pressure as Long-Term Treasury Yields Rise Again

    Spot gold is trading around $4,481.29 per troy ounce, down 0.81% on the session after failing to break above the $4,510–$4,515 resistance zone during Asian trading. Meanwhile, the front-month COMEX gold contract stands at $4,537.00, down $8.30 or 0.18%, after reaching an overnight high of $4,550.80 before retreating toward $4,528.70 at the New York open. On the CFD market, gold has traded within an intraday range of approximately $4,463–$4,500.

    Wednesday delivered the decisive move, with gold surging more than 3% to $4,480, its highest level since early June. The rally was primarily driven by a sharp decline in long-term US Treasury yields. Thursday’s pullback has erased only part of that advance, suggesting that the broader bullish structure remains intact despite renewed pressure.

    Gold Rally Loses Momentum as Treasury Yields Recover

    Gold’s recent performance highlights the uncertainty surrounding current market positioning. The precious metal has gained 9.90% over the past month and 34.19% over the past year, while its year-to-date advance stands at roughly 0.25%.

    The price action has been volatile. Gold reached a record high of $5,602.23 on January 29 before falling sharply through March and April. After stabilizing near $4,457 in late May, the metal declined toward $4,065–$4,100 in late July before staging a recovery of more than 10% from the yearly low.

    At $4,481, gold remains about 20% below its January peak. The current 52-week range stretches from $3,311.46 to $5,595.46, placing the metal in the upper-middle portion of a wide trading range.

    The main obstacle for further gains is the renewed rise in long-term Treasury yields. The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed back to 5.236%, more than four basis points above Wednesday’s 5.196% close and only around 9.4 basis points below Tuesday’s 19-year high of 5.33%. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield is holding near 4.696%.

    The sharp reversal in bond yields has partially undone the key driver behind Wednesday’s gold rally. Lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold, while rising yields tend to have the opposite effect.

    Gold Price Technical Outlook: $4,510–$4,515 Remains Key Resistance

    The next major move in XAU/USD could depend on whether gold can overcome the $4,510–$4,515 resistance area.

    XAUUSD chart by TradingView

    This region combines two important technical indicators: the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June decline. The convergence of these two indicators within a narrow price zone makes the resistance particularly significant.

    The broader weekly resistance area extends from approximately $4,493 to $4,533, with $4,510–$4,515 positioned near its midpoint.

    A weekly close above $4,533 would strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially expose gold to the next major resistance zone around $4,855–$4,894. Conversely, failure to clear $4,515 could send XAU/USD back into the six-week trading range that has dominated price action through the summer.

    On the downside, the 50-day moving average at $4,386.29 represents the first major support level. Below it, $4,319 is particularly important as it corresponds to the 2026 yearly open and the 52-week moving average.

    The $4,319 level previously acted as resistance but has since shifted into support, making this breakout one of the most constructive technical developments for gold since the March decline.

    Additional support levels are located around $4,311, followed by the $4,284–$4,311 demand zone and $4,175. Stronger support is seen around $4,002–$4,017, while $3,887 represents a deeper defensive level before the yearly low region.

    Momentum indicators remain broadly bullish. The daily RSI is at 65.17, approaching overbought territory but not yet reaching extreme levels. Daily MACD remains positive, while the broader technical signal remains Strong Buy across the daily, weekly and monthly timeframes. However, the hourly signal has shifted to Strong Sell, highlighting short-term exhaustion.

    Wednesday’s Gold Rally Was Driven Primarily by Treasury Yields

    The distinction between a yield-driven rally and a traditional safe-haven rally is important for assessing gold’s next move.

    On Wednesday, the US Treasury announced that it would at least double the size of liquidity-support buyback operations involving longer-dated nominal coupon securities across the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors.

    The maximum amount per operation was increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, with the new level scheduled to take effect from September 9 through November 4.

    Following the announcement, the 30-year Treasury yield fell from 5.33% to 5.184%, while the 10-year yield declined from 4.68% to 4.637%. At the same time, the US Dollar fell to a three-month low, helping gold surge more than 3% to $4,480.

    The relationship is straightforward. Gold does not generate interest income, meaning its opportunity cost rises when Treasury yields increase. When long-term yields fall while the US Dollar weakens, the relative attractiveness of holding gold improves.

    However, the scale of the Treasury buyback program raises questions about how sustainable the yield decline can be. Doubling the buyback ceiling adds roughly $14 billion of potential capacity against approximately $32.2 trillion of outstanding marketable Treasury debt.

    The Treasury is also not eliminating the underlying debt. Instead, it purchases older, less liquid securities while financing those purchases through new issuance. The overall amount of outstanding debt therefore remains largely unchanged.

    As a result, Wednesday’s market reaction appears to have reflected the policy signal more than a fundamental change in Treasury supply dynamics.

    Rising Treasury Yields Create a Headwind for Gold

    The subsequent rebound in Treasury yields shows why gold has struggled to extend Wednesday’s rally.

    The 30-year yield has returned to 5.236%, exceeding its level before the buyback announcement, while the 10-year yield has risen to 4.696%. In effect, much of the bond-market move that supported Wednesday’s gold rally has already been reversed.

    The broader fiscal environment is also keeping pressure on long-term yields. US government debt has surpassed $40 trillion, while the July federal deficit reached $432.3 billion. Interest payments on the debt have also approached approximately $1.2 trillion this calendar year.

    This creates a difficult environment for the Treasury, particularly as demand for long-duration government debt remains under pressure.

    The rise in global bond yields adds another layer to the problem. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield recently reached a multi-decade high, while long-term yields in Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Switzerland and Canada have also moved higher.

    For gold, rising nominal yields can be bearish because they increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion. However, if yields rise because of deteriorating fiscal conditions, inflation concerns or fears surrounding debt monetization, the same environment can support structural demand for gold.

    At present, both forces are operating simultaneously.

    Fed Policy Remains a Major Risk for Gold

    Federal Reserve policy is another important factor limiting gold’s upside.

    Minutes from the July 28–29 FOMC meeting indicated that several policymakers remained prepared to raise interest rates if inflation failed to make sufficient progress toward the 2% target. Three regional Fed presidents also dissented in favor of a rate hike at the meeting.

    The federal funds target range currently stands at 3.50%–3.75%, while market pricing puts the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in September at around 69.9%.

    The prospect of further monetary tightening creates a challenging environment for gold because higher interest rates and Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of owning a non-yielding asset.

    However, weaker economic indicators provide an important counterbalance. July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, compared with expectations for an increase of roughly 83,000, while previous months were revised lower. Retail sales also declined 0.6% in July, significantly weaker than the expected 0.1% increase.

    This combination of persistent inflation, slowing growth and softer labor-market conditions leaves the Federal Reserve facing a difficult policy trade-off.

    The upcoming Jackson Hole event could therefore become an important catalyst for gold. A hawkish message could reinforce Treasury yields and push XAU/USD toward the $4,386 support level. A more cautious tone focused on labor-market weakness could instead help gold retest $4,533.

    Geopolitical Tensions Fail to Trigger a Strong Gold Safe-Haven Rally

    Another notable feature of the current market is gold’s inability to attract a significant safe-haven bid despite escalating tensions surrounding Iran.

    Crude oil prices have responded more strongly to the geopolitical developments. September WTI futures have risen 2.38% to $86.40, while Brent crude has climbed above $94.

    Yet gold has fallen 0.81% on the session.

    The divergence suggests that investors are currently favoring the US Dollar rather than gold as the preferred safe-haven asset. Because gold is priced in US Dollars, a stronger dollar can place additional pressure on XAU/USD.

    Geopolitical tensions could still support gold through a secondary channel. Higher oil prices can increase inflationary pressure, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates. If inflation remains elevated while economic growth deteriorates, real yields could eventually weaken, creating a more favorable environment for bullion.

    This transmission mechanism is slower than a conventional safe-haven rally but could prove more sustainable if energy prices remain elevated.

    Gold Remains Far Below Its January Record

    Despite the recent rebound, gold’s broader performance shows that the market has not yet returned to a clear new bullish phase.

    The metal is up more than 34% year over year and nearly 10% over the past month, but its year-to-date gain is only around 0.25%. This means most of the annual gain was generated during late 2025 and January 2026, while the subsequent months represented a significant round trip.

    Gold’s January record of $5,602.23 was followed by a sharp correction. The metal eventually stabilized near $4,457 in May before falling toward the $4,065–$4,100 area in July.

    The August recovery has nevertheless been significant. Gold has gained more than 10% from its yearly low and broken decisively above the six-week consolidation range that had constrained prices throughout the summer.

    At current levels, gold has recovered roughly 42% of the decline from the July low to the January record. That represents a meaningful technical recovery, but it does not yet confirm the beginning of a new long-term uptrend.

    The $4,312–$4,319 region remains the key pivot. Holding above this zone would support the view that the March downtrend has been invalidated and that gold is entering a recovery phase. A sustained move below it, however, would increase the risk that the August rally was merely a countertrend rebound within a broader correction.

    For now, gold remains caught between supportive structural factors, including fiscal concerns and geopolitical risks, and significant headwinds from elevated Treasury yields and expectations for a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve. The $4,510–$4,533 resistance zone therefore remains the critical barrier for determining whether the latest gold recovery can develop into a more sustained bullish move.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Fed Minutes vs. Press Conference: Why Investors Should Focus on the Minutes

    The Federal Reserve’s July FOMC minutes provide a clearer picture of the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged—and they reveal a notable gap between the Committee’s reasoning and Chair Kevin Warsh’s subsequent press conference.

    Taken together, the July policy statement, press conference, and minutes suggest that the Federal Reserve may be experiencing a shift in how it communicates monetary policy. While the Committee’s decision remained grounded in economic data and risk management, Warsh’s comments offered a different interpretation of the decision.

    For investors, the key lesson is straightforward: when the Chair’s comments and the FOMC minutes appear to diverge, the minutes may provide the more reliable guide to the Committee’s thinking.

    What the FOMC Minutes Reveal About the July Rate Decision

    At the July meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. At the time, inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target, while the labor market was broadly balanced.

    According to the FOMC minutes, most policymakers expected inflation to moderate later in the year as the effects of energy-related supply disruptions and tariffs faded. Softer inflation data in June offered some support for this view, although officials did not consider the evidence conclusive.

    With unemployment close to its longer-run level, policymakers also saw little immediate pressure from the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate. Since economic conditions had changed relatively little since the June meeting, officials preferred to wait for additional data ahead of the September meeting.

    The minutes also highlighted upside inflation risks. Several policymakers indicated that further rate increases could be appropriate if inflation failed to decline, while three voting members dissented in favor of a July hike.

    In other words, the decision to hold rates was largely a data-dependent pause designed to provide more time to assess the inflation outlook.

    Warsh’s Press Conference Offered a Different Message

    The biggest contrast emerged during Kevin Warsh’s press conference.

    When asked whether June’s softer inflation data influenced the decision, Warsh appeared to downplay their importance. However, the minutes indicate that the data did matter: most participants expected inflation to decline, and the June figures provided the first evidence supporting that expectation.

    Warsh also rejected the characterization of the July decision as a “pause,” describing it instead as a broader review of economic conditions.

    Yet the minutes make the rationale much clearer. Policymakers wanted additional information before September because incoming data could provide greater clarity on inflation.

    From an investor’s perspective, that is effectively a pause: rates were left unchanged while policymakers waited for more evidence.

    Did Financial Markets Influence the Fed’s Decision?

    Warsh repeatedly highlighted tighter financial conditions and higher market interest rates during the press conference.

    However, the FOMC minutes do not identify higher market rates as a primary reason for holding the policy rate steady. Instead, several participants noted that financial conditions had tightened, partly because markets expected the Fed to adopt a more restrictive policy stance.

    This distinction is important.

    Financial markets were not replacing Fed policy. Rather, markets were anticipating that the Fed might tighten policy in the future.

    The Fed’s own market desk reportedly indicated that financial markets had fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate increase by the September meeting. Therefore, market pricing should be viewed as an expectation of future Fed action rather than a substitute for that action.

    Warsh’s comments appeared to contribute to a reduction in expectations for a September rate hike, illustrating how differences in Fed communication can directly affect financial markets.

    Warsh’s Reaction Function vs. the Committee’s View

    Warsh also described his own reaction function, suggesting that rising underlying inflation would make a central bank more inclined to tighten policy, while falling inflation would increase the case for easing.

    That framework is straightforward, but it does not fully capture the Committee’s current challenge.

    The key question for policymakers is not simply whether inflation is rising or falling. The bigger issue is whether inflation is moving sustainably toward the Fed’s 2% target.

    The FOMC minutes indicate that many policymakers believed additional tightening could become necessary if inflation failed to decline.

    That distinction matters because the Chair has only one vote. Monetary policy requires the support of the broader Committee.

    For investors preparing for the September FOMC meeting, the Committee’s language may therefore be more informative than the Chair’s individual interpretation.

    What Investors Should Take Away

    The July FOMC minutes highlight an important change in Federal Reserve communication.

    The Fed may be moving away from traditional forward guidance, but reducing forward guidance should not mean reducing transparency or accountability.

    The minutes provide a more detailed explanation of why policymakers held rates: inflation remained elevated, but officials expected it to moderate and wanted more economic data before making another move.

    Warsh’s press conference, by contrast, offered a less precise description of the Committee’s reasoning and placed greater emphasis on financial markets and his personal policy framework.

    For investors, the lesson is clear: read the FOMC minutes carefully and place greater weight on the Committee’s consensus than on the Chair’s individual comments.

    The July meeting did not necessarily signal a fundamental change in how the Fed makes monetary policy. Instead, it may signal a significant change in how the institution communicates that policy.

    As markets look toward the September FOMC meeting, inflation data, labor-market conditions, and the broader Committee consensus will likely matter more than any single comment from the Chair.

    Read more news and analysis

  • US Dollar Index Holds Near Three-Month Low as Japanese Yen Stays Flat After CPI Data

    US Dollar Index Holds Near Three-Month Low Amid Fading Fed Rate-Hike Bets

    The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of major currencies, remains under pressure during Friday’s Asian trading session. After a modest rebound the previous day, the index attracted fresh selling and hovered around the 98.80–98.75 area, remaining close to its lowest level since mid-May.

    Stacks of US hundred-dollar bills arranged in a pile.

    USD Remains Under Pressure as Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Fade

    The US Dollar continues to face headwinds as markets scale back expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Softer-than-expected US inflation data released last week reinforced expectations that the Fed may maintain its current policy stance, weighing on demand for the Greenback.

    The impact of the US Treasury’s decision to increase certain long-term debt buyback operations has also diminished. Meanwhile, renewed inflation concerns linked to higher energy prices could continue to support US Treasury yields, potentially limiting the downside for the Dollar.

    Geopolitical Risks Provide Support for the Safe-Haven USD

    Rising geopolitical tensions are another factor preventing a sharper decline in the US Dollar. Crude oil prices climbed to a three-week high after President Donald Trump announced tougher economic measures against Iran and warned of severe penalties for countries conducting business with Tehran or helping it circumvent sanctions.

    Higher oil prices could fuel inflation concerns and keep US bond yields elevated. At the same time, escalating tensions may increase demand for the US Dollar as a traditional safe-haven asset.

    Market pricing also remains relatively supportive of the USD. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders continue to assign roughly a 68% probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of the year. This outlook could help cushion the DXY against deeper losses.

    DXY Technical Outlook

    From a technical perspective, the US Dollar Index maintains a bearish near-term bias while trading below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 99.16.

    DXY chart by TradingView

    The recent failure to sustain gains above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement around 98.52 leaves the index vulnerable to additional selling pressure. On the upside, the 200-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 99.22 form a significant resistance zone that could limit any recovery.

    Overall, the DXY remains vulnerable to further declines, although persistent inflation risks, elevated Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty could provide support for the US Dollar and slow its downward momentum.

    USD/JPY Steadies Near 159.00 as Japan Inflation Strengthens BoJ Rate-Hike Bets

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded largely sideways against the US Dollar on Friday, with USD/JPY hovering around 159.05 during the early Asian session. Stronger-than-expected inflation data from Japan reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates at its upcoming September meeting, helping offset concerns over weaker domestic growth.

    Japan Inflation Strengthens BoJ Rate-Hike Expectations

    Japan’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% year over year in July, accelerating from 1.6% in June. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices but includes energy costs, increased 1.8% YoY, up from 1.6% previously.

    The pickup in underlying inflation could strengthen the case for further monetary policy normalization by the BoJ. Market pricing currently reflects an approximately 80% probability of a rate hike at the next policy meeting, while expectations are building for the central bank to lift its policy rate from 1.0% to 1.25% in September.

    Higher energy prices could further reinforce inflationary pressures. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher, while the weaker Yen may also contribute to imported inflation in Japan.

    Geopolitical Risks Could Limit Yen Gains

    Despite stronger inflation data and rising BoJ rate-hike expectations, geopolitical developments could restrict the Yen’s upside. Japan remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy supplies, meaning a prolonged escalation in the region could increase oil prices and weigh on Japan’s economic outlook.

    At the same time, heightened geopolitical uncertainty may boost demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset, providing additional support for USD/JPY.

    However, the Yen’s medium-term outlook appears to be improving. Firmer BoJ policy, structural reforms and a resilient Japanese economy could gradually strengthen the JPY and provide a fundamental counterweight to the US Dollar.

    USD/JPY Technical Outlook

    From a technical perspective, USD/JPY retains a bearish near-term bias as the pair remains below both the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 20-period Bollinger middle band.

    USDJPY chart by TradingView

    Initial resistance is located around 159.45, followed by the 100-day SMA near 160.00. A sustained break above this zone would be needed to weaken the current bearish structure, with the upper Bollinger Band around 163.30 representing a further upside barrier.

    On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band near 155.50 provides the next major technical support. A decisive break below recent lows could expose this area and reinforce the broader bearish outlook.

    Overall, USD/JPY remains vulnerable to further declines while capped below the 159.45–160.00 resistance zone, although geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand for the US Dollar could limit the Yen’s gains.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Solana Price Forecast: ETF Inflows and Improving Liquidity Support SOL Rally

    Solana (SOL) extended its strong weekly rally on Friday, gaining more than 19% so far this week and trading near the key 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $89. A sustained breakout above this resistance could reinforce the bullish outlook and pave the way for further upside.

    The latest gains have been supported by improving liquidity conditions following the US Treasury’s decision to expand its debt buyback operations. At the same time, institutional demand for Solana has strengthened, with US-listed spot SOL ETFs attracting $14.58 million in net inflows on Thursday, their strongest single-day inflow since late July.

    Improving Liquidity Conditions Support Solana

    The US Treasury announced on Wednesday that it would double the size of certain debt buyback operations designed to improve liquidity in the longer-dated Treasury market.

    According to Reuters, the Treasury plans to increase liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated nominal coupon securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.

    The larger buyback program helped ease concerns over market liquidity and encouraged greater risk appetite across financial markets. It also contributed to a short squeeze in cryptocurrencies, with SOL jumping more than 10% on Wednesday before extending its advance to a Friday high of $90.20.

    Institutional Demand for SOL Strengthens

    Institutional interest in Solana has also picked up this week. Data from SoSoValue showed that US-listed spot SOL ETFs attracted $14.58 million in net inflows on Thursday, marking the strongest single-day inflow since the end of July.

    Thursday also marked the third consecutive session of positive ETF flows this week. If institutional inflows continue to increase, they could provide an additional catalyst for SOL and support further price gains.

    Solana Price Forecast: 200-Day EMA Remains Key Resistance

    Solana was trading around $89.14 on Friday, maintaining a bullish short-term structure as the price remained comfortably above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $76.91 and $78.63, respectively.

    However, SOL is currently testing the 200-day EMA at $89.28, which represents an important resistance level. The indicator could limit the upside during the initial breakout attempt.

    Momentum indicators remain bullish but increasingly stretched. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 79, placing it in overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly positive. Together, these signals point to strong upward momentum, although the recent rally may leave SOL vulnerable to short-term consolidation or profit-taking.

    On the downside, the first important support zone is around $77.07, supported by the 100-day EMA at $78.63 and the 50-day EMA at $76.91. A deeper correction could bring the broken ascending trendline near $74.38 into focus as the next major demand area.

    On the upside, a sustained daily close above the 200-day EMA at $89.28 could strengthen the bullish setup and expose the next resistance near $96.19. This level may attract selling pressure following SOL’s sharp recent advance.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Gold and Silver Rally as USD Weakness Fuels Safe-Haven Demand

    Gold and silver extended their recent gains on Friday as a weaker US Dollar (USD), elevated market volatility, and renewed safe-haven demand supported precious metals. Gold (XAU/USD) climbed to around $4,544 during the Asian session, reaching its highest level since early June, while Silver (XAG/USD) approached $69 per troy ounce after gaining nearly 6% this week.

    Gold Holds Above $4,500 as USD Weakness Supports Buyers

    Gold continued its upward momentum after breaking above the technically important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The precious metal reached approximately $4,544, marking its strongest level since early June and reinforcing the broader bullish outlook.

    The primary driver behind the latest Gold rally has been continued weakness in the USD, which remains close to a three-month low. Recent US inflation data showed signs of easing price pressures, leading investors to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.

    Because Gold does not generate interest income, expectations for higher US interest rates typically reduce its appeal. Conversely, fading expectations for tighter monetary policy can support demand for the precious metal by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

    However, rising crude oil prices could complicate the outlook. Higher energy prices may reignite inflation concerns and encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer. At the same time, escalating tensions between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, together with renewed activity by Iran-backed Houthi forces targeting oil tankers, have increased concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies.

    Oil prices subsequently advanced to a three-week high, helping keep US Treasury yields elevated and potentially limiting the downside in the USD.

    Fed Rate Hike Expectations Could Cap Gold’s Upside

    The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes offered some support for the US Dollar. Policymakers indicated that interest rates could need to rise in the near term unless inflation continues to move lower.

    Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in approximately a 68% probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year. If these expectations strengthen, higher Treasury yields and a firmer USD could create headwinds for Gold.

    Geopolitical risks are also influencing currency markets. US President Donald Trump said Washington would pursue a major economic campaign against Iran and warned of penalties for countries helping Tehran circumvent sanctions or maintain commercial ties with Iran. Vice President JD Vance likewise highlighted economic pressure as a key tool for influencing Tehran.

    Such developments could increase demand for the USD as a traditional safe-haven currency, potentially limiting further gains in Gold.

    Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Targets $4,687

    From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains in a bullish structure after establishing itself above the 200-day SMA. Buyers are now looking for a sustained move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline, located around $4,529.

    The MACD remains in positive territory, supporting the prevailing bullish momentum. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 67.70, approaching overbought territory and suggesting that the recent advance could be becoming stretched.

    A sustained breakout above $4,529 could expose the next resistance near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at approximately $4,687. A further extension could bring the cycle high around $4,889 into focus.

    On the downside, initial support is located near $4,529, followed by the 200-day SMA around $4,514 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $4,417. Additional support levels can be found around $4,306, $4,168, and the structural low near $3,946.

    Silver Approaches $69 as Volatility Drives Safe-Haven Demand

    Silver (XAG/USD) also extended its advance for a third consecutive session, trading around $68.70 per troy ounce during Friday’s Asian session. The metal has gained nearly 6% over the week as heightened volatility across currency and bond markets encouraged investors to increase exposure to precious metals.

    The initial boost came after the US Treasury Department announced plans to at least double its long-term debt buyback operations. The announcement initially pushed Treasury yields and the USD lower, creating a supportive environment for non-yielding assets such as Silver.

    Although US Treasury yields later recovered much of their decline, continued weakness in the dollar allowed Silver to maintain its bullish momentum.

    Market uncertainty surrounding the Treasury’s debt-management strategy has also contributed to demand for precious metals. While the initial fall in longer-term yields has largely reversed, persistent USD weakness indicates that investors remain cautious about the implications of the buyback program and the broader US fiscal outlook.

    Rising Oil Prices Create Risks for Silver

    Despite the bullish near-term outlook, Silver could face resistance if higher energy prices revive inflation concerns.

    Crude oil prices have risen amid escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran over the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Stalled negotiations and stronger US economic pressure on Iran have increased concerns about potential disruptions to Iranian oil exports and global energy supplies.

    The US is reportedly preparing additional economic measures targeting Iran’s banking sector, shipping networks, cash transfers, and smuggling operations. The objective is to intensify pressure on Tehran and encourage negotiations over its nuclear program and regional activities.

    Higher oil prices could increase inflation expectations and reduce the likelihood of rapid monetary easing. If central banks respond by maintaining or raising interest rates, higher yields could weigh on non-yielding assets such as Gold and Silver.

    Gold and Silver Outlook

    XAUUSD chart by TradingView

    Overall, both Gold and Silver retain a constructive near-term outlook as USD weakness, elevated financial-market volatility, and safe-haven demand continue to support precious metals.

    Gold’s ability to remain above its 200-day SMA keeps the broader bullish structure intact, while a sustained break above $4,529 could pave the way toward $4,687 and potentially $4,889.

    Silver is approaching the psychologically important $69 level after a strong weekly rally. However, rising oil prices, renewed inflation risks, and expectations for higher interest rates could limit further upside and increase volatility.

    For both precious metals, the next major directional catalyst is likely to come from the interaction between USD performance, Federal Reserve rate expectations, Treasury yields, and developments surrounding US-Iran tensions.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Silver and WTI Rally as Bond Buybacks Expand and Strait of Hormuz Tensions Escalate

    WTI Price Forecast: Oil Climbs Above $84.50 as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Intensify

    WTI crude oil prices rebound to around $85.50 per barrel during Thursday’s Asian session, extending their recovery as escalating US-Iran tensions and growing risks around the Strait of Hormuz fuel concerns over potential supply disruptions.

    Geopolitical pressure intensified after the United Arab Emirates suspended financial and economic transactions with Iran following alleged missile attacks. Despite the heightened risks, Gulf oil producers continue to maintain relatively strong export flows by relying on alternative shipping routes and less visible transport channels.

    Market risks remain elevated as stalled US-Iran negotiations and the threat of further attacks raise concerns over energy supplies. TD Securities cautioned that worsening geopolitical tensions could keep a risk premium embedded in crude oil and refined products.

    US inventory data offered a mixed signal for oil markets. The latest EIA report showed domestic crude stockpiles increasing by 4.4 million barrels, while distillate inventories declined by 1.5 million barrels to their lowest level in about a month. The contrasting supply trends, combined with rising geopolitical risks, could keep WTI volatile in the near term.

    Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Hits Two-Month High as US Expands Treasury Buybacks

    Silver (XAG/USD) climbs to a fresh two-month high of $67.33 during Thursday’s Asian session, supported by a sharp decline in longer-term US Treasury yields after the US Treasury announced plans to double its bond buyback operations.

    The expansion of Treasury buybacks has pushed long-dated yields lower and added pressure on the US Dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield remains near 4.64% after falling more than 1.5% on Wednesday, while the 30-year yield has dropped close to 5.18%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering near a seven-week low around 98.77.

    Falling bond yields tend to increase the appeal of non-yielding precious metals such as silver. However, the latest FOMC minutes showed that several policymakers favored the possibility of further interest-rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, creating a potential headwind for silver.

    Silver Technical Outlook

    XAGUSD chart by TradingView

    XAG/USD is trading around $67.10, well above its 20-period EMA at $63.20, keeping the short-term technical outlook bullish. The RSI stands at 61.48, indicating positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory.

    Immediate support is located around $67.10, followed by stronger dynamic support near $63.20. On the upside, a sustained move higher could bring $70.00 into focus, with the June 16 high around $71.19 representing the next major resistance level.

  • Canadian Dollar Rises on Higher Oil Prices as Australian Dollar Slips After Weak Labor Data

    Australian Dollar Slips After Disappointing Labor Report

    • AUD/USD comes under renewed selling pressure as weaker-than-expected Australian employment data weighs on the Australian Dollar.
    • Australia’s unemployment rate climbed to 4.5% in July, exceeding the 4.4% market forecast.
    • Fed minutes indicated that policymakers could support near-term rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, while the benchmark rate was kept at 3.5%–3.75%.

    AUD/USD retreats after gaining more than 0.5% in the previous session, trading near 0.7120 during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair is pressured by a weaker Australian Dollar following disappointing domestic employment figures.

    Australia’s unemployment rate increased to 4.5% in July, above economists’ expectations of 4.4%. Employment also deteriorated sharply, with the economy losing 15.8K jobs compared with an 80.2K increase in June and falling well short of the forecast for a 15.0K rise.

    AUD Faces Additional Headwinds From RBA and China Concerns

    Rabobank strategists noted that expectations for additional Reserve Bank of Australia tightening remain limited, with markets pricing in only around 12 basis points of rate hikes over the next three months. They also pointed to weaker Chinese demand for Australian commodities and softer domestic economic conditions as growing risks for the Aussie.

    Still, AUD/USD could find some support from a weaker US Dollar, which has been pressured by recent economic developments and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting showed that several policymakers were open to raising interest rates in the near term if inflation failed to moderate, while the benchmark rate remained unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%.

    Although inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, recent monthly readings suggest that price pressures are easing. This has reduced expectations for an immediate rate increase. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 32.7% probability of a rate hike at the next meeting, down from 47% one month earlier.

    Technical Analysis

    AUDUSD chart by TradingView

    AUD/USD is trading near 0.7110 on the daily chart, remaining above both the nine-period and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This positioning keeps the pair’s near-term outlook moderately bullish, particularly as prices continue to move beyond the recent consolidation range.

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63.2, indicating positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory. This suggests that buyers still have room to push prices higher, although broader Federal Reserve sentiment remains relatively subdued compared with previous peaks.

    The first key resistance level is the psychological 0.7200 mark. On the downside, initial support is located around the nine-period EMA at 0.7087. A break below this level could expose the next support zone near the 50-period EMA at 0.7034, where dip-buyers may attempt to regain control.

    Canadian Dollar Strengthens as Oil Prices Rise and US Dollar Weakens

    • USD/CAD extends its decline as stronger crude oil prices support the commodity-sensitive Canadian Dollar.
    • Oil prices climb amid heightened Middle East tensions and stalled US-Iran negotiations, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions.
    • Fed minutes indicated that policymakers could favor near-term rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, while keeping the benchmark rate at 3.5%–3.75%.

    USD/CAD falls for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.3800 during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair remains under pressure as the Canadian Dollar gains momentum from rising crude oil prices.

    Oil prices have advanced sharply as tensions in the Middle East intensify and negotiations between the United States and Iran remain deadlocked. The situation has extended into the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Although US President Donald Trump said oil shipments continue to pass through the waterway, he also indicated that further negotiations with Tehran remain possible.

    Oil Rally Supports the Canadian Dollar

    TD Securities highlighted the ongoing geopolitical risks as an important driver of crude prices, warning that the Iran conflict could escalate further. With the threat of supply disruptions still present, the bank expects Brent crude’s geopolitical risk premium to remain elevated as traders price in the possibility of additional instability across the region.

    USD/CAD is also pressured by a softer US Dollar amid shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy and recent economic data. Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting showed that officials were prepared to consider raising interest rates in the near term if inflation failed to ease, while the benchmark rate remained unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%.

    Although inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, recent monthly figures indicate that price pressures are moderating. The signs of cooling inflation have reduced expectations for an immediate rate hike. Markets now see a 32.7% probability of a Fed rate increase at the next meeting, down from 47% one month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Bitcoin surges, eyeing best daily gain since February as Trump boosts crypto sentiment and yields slide

    Bitcoin rallied sharply on Wednesday, heading toward its strongest daily performance since early February, as President Donald Trump voiced strong support for the cryptocurrency industry and urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act. Falling yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasury bonds also improved overall risk sentiment.

    Bitcoin climbed 8% to around $69,757 by 17:34 ET (21:34 GMT), reaching its highest level since June 1. The move marked its strongest intraday gain since a more than 12% jump on February 6.

    Trump steps up support for the crypto industry

    Trump hosted senior financial officials and executives from major cryptocurrency companies on Wednesday, one day before the first meeting of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Innovation Advisory Committee. The committee was established to advise on how technological developments could affect U.S. financial markets.

    Trump emphasized his goal of keeping the U.S. at the forefront of digital assets and emerging technologies, including Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, prediction markets and artificial intelligence. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins attended the meeting, along with executives such as Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev and Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi.

    Trump also called on Congress to pass a revised version of the CLARITY Act, saying the legislation could encourage a new wave of innovation across the digital asset sector.

    SEC unveils proposed crypto framework

    The Trump administration’s crypto-friendly stance followed a new SEC proposal designed to establish clearer rules for certain crypto-related investment contracts.

    Dubbed “Regulation Crypto Assets,” the proposal includes two exemptions from securities registration requirements. Eligible issuers could raise as much as $5 million over four years under one exemption, while another would allow offerings of up to $75 million within a 12-month period.

    SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the framework would provide crypto businesses and investors with clearer options for raising capital while operating within federal securities laws. The proposal would also introduce a safe harbor after issuers complete or permanently discontinue the managerial activities promised under an investment contract.

    Treasury buybacks lift longer-term bonds

    Sentiment across financial markets also improved after the U.S. Treasury announced plans to at least double its purchases of longer-dated government bonds.

    Starting September 9, liquidity-support buybacks covering the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year maturity sectors will increase from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation.

    The announcement triggered strong buying in longer-duration Treasuries and pushed yields lower. The 30-year Treasury yield fell 8.9 basis points to 5.196%, after reaching 5.337% the previous day, its highest level since June 2007.

    Long-term Treasury yields had recently come under pressure following the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, as higher oil prices fueled inflation concerns and heavy borrowing by major technology companies to finance AI infrastructure added to concerns over the supply of government and corporate debt.

    Ether and major altcoins rally

    The broader cryptocurrency market also advanced sharply alongside Bitcoin.

    Crypto markets by TradingView

    Ether surged nearly 20% to $2,288.49, while XRP gained about 12% to $1.1229. BNB rose 4.8%, while Cardano and Solana climbed roughly 9.7% and 12.4%, respectively.

    Meme coins also recorded strong gains, with Dogecoin rising around 8% and the TRUMP token jumping more than 20%.

    Overall, renewed U.S. political support for digital assets, expectations of clearer crypto regulations and falling long-term Treasury yields combined to create a strong risk-on environment for cryptocurrencies.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Semiconductor Stocks Come Under Fresh Selling Pressure as Credit Concerns Resurface

    Stocks came under pressure on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 falling roughly 0.7% and the NASDAQ sliding more than 1.5%. Semiconductor shares led the decline as credit spreads for several chipmakers widened again, with some even surpassing the highs recorded on July 29.

    Equity markets have yet to fully reflect the deterioration seen in semiconductor CDS. This raises the question of whether Tuesday’s decline could mark the beginning of another sharp sell-off in the sector, similar to the plunge witnessed in July.

    Nvidia-Daily Chart

    Nvidia’s credit spreads moved above July levels, although the stock remains significantly higher than it was less than a month ago. Broadcom’s share-price action, meanwhile, appears to be tracking developments in the credit market more closely than Nvidia.

    Broadcom-Daily Chart

    Options positioning could add another layer of pressure. The semiconductor ETF SMH has accumulated substantial positive delta exposure, particularly around the $600 and $550 levels. As time value erodes and call premiums decline, options at $600 and above could lose value rapidly. A break below $550 could accelerate that decay and potentially trigger additional stock selling as hedging positions are unwound.

    SMH-Delta Exposure Chart

    The largest delta exposure, based on the analysis, is set to expire this Friday, potentially increasing the importance of near-term price movements.

    SMH-Net DEX by Expiration Date

    Implied correlations for SMH also rose on Tuesday, moving ahead of the broader market. After remaining subdued for weeks, correlations could continue to increase as earnings season winds down and stock-level dispersion declines.

    SPX - VIX Chart

    These factors are largely mechanical and are separate from broader issues such as higher interest rates or geopolitical developments. However, if semiconductor CDS spreads continue to widen while rates rise, the combination of deteriorating credit conditions, options-related flows and higher correlations could make the remainder of the summer more challenging for equities.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Gold, Silver Consolidate as US Dollar Holds Firm

    Gold and silver are trading within relatively tight ranges after their strong breakouts earlier this month, as traders await a fresh catalyst to determine whether the precious metals rally resumes or reverses.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) has remained resilient despite growing macroeconomic headwinds, while traditional relationships between precious metals and key economic indicators have become increasingly unclear. Against this backdrop, the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes later Wednesday could provide the catalyst needed to trigger the next major move.

    Macro Signals Offer Little Direction

    The recent consolidation in precious metals partly reflects conflicting signals from their traditional macro drivers.

    The relationship between gold and silver remains strong, with their five-day correlation standing at around 0.96. However, correlations with other major indicators have become far less straightforward.

    Gold and silver bars, U.S. dollars, and XAU/USD, XAG/USD, and DXY market charts

    Over the past five days, gold has shown relatively strong correlations with US 2-year yields, 10-year Treasury yields and 10-year real yields, despite these relationships typically pointing in the opposite fundamental direction. Silver has displayed a similar pattern, with correlations of around 0.66, 0.70 and 0.71, respectively.

    Meanwhile, gold and silver have shown almost no relationship with the US dollar over the same period, with five-day correlations near zero. Fed rate expectations have also provided limited guidance, while correlations with the Nasdaq 100 and VIX futures remain weak and inconsistent.

    With gold and silver still closely linked but most traditional macro signals offering mixed messages, traders may need to rely more heavily on price action to determine the next direction.

    US Dollar Remains Resilient

    The lack of a clear relationship between precious metals and the US dollar becomes more understandable when looking at the recent performance of the DXY.

    DXY chart by TradingView

    Although the dollar has faced several negative headwinds this month and broken below the uptrend established from its January lows, it has remained range-bound in recent weeks.

    The DXY has attracted buying interest below 99.50, extending toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January-to-June advance, while gains above 100.00 have faced resistance.

    The dollar’s resilience is significant because its earlier decline was one of the factors supporting the strong breakout in gold and silver at the start of the month. With the 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages beginning to flatten, continued sideways movement in the DXY may be limiting further upside momentum in precious metals.

    Gold Price Outlook

    Gold climbed as high as $4,450 per ounce after breaking above the bearish trendline from its January peak and the wedge formation that had contained price action since early June.

    The metal has since entered a consolidation phase.

    XAUUSD chart by TradingView

    Gold has found buying interest below the $4,333 area, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January-to-June decline, while this week’s low has reached around $4,312. With gains capped near $4,450, this zone currently defines the key trading range.

    A decisive move above $4,450 would bring the 200-day moving average into focus. A clean break above that level could open the way toward $4,580, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and an important historical support-resistance area.

    On the downside, a break below $4,312 could expose gold to further losses toward $4,200, which represents the upper boundary of the earlier breakout zone. The 50-day moving average sits just below that level.

    Momentum indicators are also becoming less supportive. The 14-day RSI is forming lower highs and lower lows while approaching the neutral 50 level. Meanwhile, the MACD remains positive but is converging toward its signal line.

    Overall, the technical picture suggests a more cautious stance for gold bulls. The medium- and longer-term outlook remains constructive, but near-term price action is likely to play a greater role in determining the next directional move.

    Silver Price Outlook

    Silver is showing a similar technical structure after breaking above the bearish trendline extending from its January record high.

    The metal has since consolidated between resistance near $67 and support around $63.29. Tuesday’s session produced a bearish engulfing candle, pushing silver closer to the lower end of its current range.

    XAGUSD chart by TradingView

    Momentum indicators are also losing strength. The 14-day RSI is making lower highs and approaching the neutral 50 level, while the MACD is turning lower and converging toward its signal line, although it remains in positive territory.

    The series of upper wicks on recent daily candles also suggests that sellers are becoming more active at higher levels.

    Near-term, the $61 area and 50-day simple moving average form an important support zone. A decisive break below this region could expose silver to the $55.63-$54.80 area, which includes a key support level and the mid-July low.

    If $63.29 continues to hold, attention will return to resistance at $67. Above that level, the 100-day moving average, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January-to-July decline and the 200-day moving average create a more significant resistance zone.

    A sustained breakout above this area would strengthen the case for a continuation of silver’s earlier bullish move and potentially bring $78 into focus.

    FOMC Minutes Could Trigger the Next Breakout

    With gold and silver consolidating, the US dollar holding firm and traditional macro relationships sending mixed signals, markets appear to be waiting for a clear catalyst.

    The July FOMC minutes could provide that catalyst by offering fresh insight into Federal Reserve policymakers’ views on inflation, interest rates and the future path of monetary policy.

    For now, $4,312-$4,450 for gold and $63.29-$67 for silver remain the key ranges to watch. A decisive breakout from either range could provide a clearer signal for the next major move in precious metals.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Bitcoin Whales Resume Buying, Accumulating $2.9 Billion in 60 Days

    Bitcoin whales are quietly returning to the market, accumulating more than $2.9 billion worth of BTC over the past 60 days, while smaller investors appear to be reducing their exposure.

    Wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC added around 46,420 Bitcoin during the period, marking the strongest whale accumulation since March.

    The renewed buying comes as Bitcoin continues to trade well below its all-time high, prompting speculation that large holders may be positioning for a potential recovery.

    Bitcoin Whales Buy as Retail Investors Reduce Exposure

    The latest data highlights a clear divergence between the behavior of large and small Bitcoin holders.

    Wallets with more than 10,000 BTC accumulated approximately 46,420 BTC, while smaller retail investors sold nearly 9,700 BTC over the same 60-day period.

    This creates a notable gap in market positioning.

    Retail investors appear to be cutting exposure amid uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin, whereas large holders are taking advantage of the weaker market to increase their positions.

    Such a divergence could prove significant when assessing Bitcoin’s next major price move.

    Why Bitcoin Whale Accumulation Matters

    The recent accumulation is particularly notable because it follows a period of significant selling pressure from large Bitcoin holders.

    In February, wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC accumulated roughly 53,000 Bitcoin in one week after months of net selling. Despite that increase, large holders had still reduced their holdings by more than 170,000 BTC since mid-December.

    The latest data suggests whale sentiment may once again be shifting toward accumulation.

    In July, whales purchased more than 270,000 BTC worth approximately $16.7 billion in just two weeks, even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.06 billion in outflows during June.

    This behavior explains why whale activity remains a closely watched indicator among Bitcoin investors.

    When large holders aggressively accumulate BTC during periods of weak market sentiment, it may indicate that some investors see lower prices as an opportunity to build positions rather than a reason to exit the market.

    Bitcoin Price Outlook

    Whale accumulation does not necessarily mean Bitcoin is about to begin a new rally. Large holders may accumulate BTC for various reasons, including long-term investment strategies, portfolio rebalancing or expectations of further price declines.

    Nevertheless, sustained buying by wallets controlling substantial amounts of Bitcoin can influence broader market dynamics. If whales move BTC away from exchanges or continue increasing their holdings, the amount of Bitcoin immediately available for sale could decrease.

    If demand remains firm while available supply tightens, even a moderate increase in buying pressure could have a greater impact on Bitcoin price.

    However, whale activity should not be considered in isolation. Bitcoin’s outlook also depends on spot ETF flows, institutional demand, overall risk appetite, interest-rate expectations, market liquidity and broader cryptocurrency sentiment.

    A sustained increase in whale holdings is therefore a potentially bullish signal, but it may not be enough to offset selling pressure from other market participants.

    If whale accumulation continues alongside stronger institutional and retail demand, the combination could become an important signal for Bitcoin’s next major move, potentially strengthening the case for an upside breakout.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Crypto Overview: Bitcoin Remains Vulnerable as Venice and Sky Extend Gains

    • Bitcoin remains under pressure below the 50-day EMA near $64,368 on Wednesday, signaling continued bearish momentum.
    • The Fear and Greed Index climbs to 41, indicating a shift toward neutral sentiment after the recent risk-off mood.
    • Venice and Sky lead the gains among major altcoins over the past 24 hours.

    Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $64,000 on Wednesday but remains under pressure as bulls look for signs of a sustained recovery. Meanwhile, improving crypto market sentiment and strong performances from Venice Token (VVV) and Sky (SKY) are drawing attention across the altcoin market.

    CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index rises to 41, moving into neutral territory and suggesting that investor sentiment is gradually recovering from the recent risk-off mood.

    Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Faces Resistance Near $64,400

    Bitcoin trades near $64,384, hovering around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at approximately $64,368. The price action points to a mildly bearish near-term bias, although BTC continues to hold above the rising support trendline from $61,307 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $63,712.

    Momentum indicators offer a more balanced picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52, slightly above the neutral 50 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and signal line remain broadly flat. This suggests that sellers have yet to gain decisive control.

    Bitcoin price by TradingView

    On the upside, the first major hurdle is the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $69,200. Beyond this level, the 200-day EMA around $72,801 represents a key resistance zone. A sustained break above it could strengthen the bullish outlook.

    On the downside, the 50-day EMA near $64,369 provides immediate support, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $63,712. A clear break below this area could expose Bitcoin to further losses toward the $57,800 region and undermine the broader recovery structure.

    Altcoin Price Forecast: Can VVV and SKY Extend Their Gains?

    Venice Token (VVV) remains above $13.00 after advancing around 20% earlier this week. The token maintains a bullish short-term setup while trading above the 50-day EMA at $12.40 and the 200-day EMA at $10.41.

    VVV faces immediate resistance around $14.25, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $21.42 to $9.81. A breakout above this level could open the path toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $18.12.

    The RSI around 63 reflects solid bullish momentum without signaling overbought conditions, while the positive MACD slope above its signal line further supports the recovery.

    On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $12.40 acts as the first support, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $11.80 and the 200-day EMA at $10.41.

    Sky (SKY) trades above $0.0500 after gaining roughly 10% over the past three days. However, the token remains below its 50-day EMA at $0.0567 and 200-day EMA at $0.0616, keeping the broader technical outlook bearish.

    Short-term momentum is improving, with the RSI rising to around 54 and moving above its midpoint. The MACD has also crossed above its signal line, indicating that selling pressure may be starting to ease.

    SKY faces initial resistance at the 50-day EMA near $0.0567, while the descending resistance trendline around $0.0583 adds another hurdle. A stronger recovery would need to overcome the 200-day EMA at $0.0616.

    If SKY turns lower from the 50-day EMA, the August 14 low at $0.05059 could provide the first downside target, followed by the June 27 low at $0.04859.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Gold and WTI Oil Hold Key Levels as FOMC Minutes Loom and Bulls Eye Breakouts

    Gold Price Slips Below $4,450 as FOMC Minutes Loom

    Gold recovers modestly from a fresh weekly low as the US Dollar comes under renewed selling pressure. However, oil-driven inflation risks keep US Treasury yields elevated, which could limit further USD losses. Traders now await the FOMC Minutes for fresh interest-rate signals before taking directional positions on gold.

    Gold (XAU/USD) gives up its modest intraday gains and remains near the lower end of its daily range, trading below $4,450 ahead of the European session on Wednesday. Although the US Dollar (USD) has come under renewed selling pressure, Gold buyers remain cautious as markets await clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s future policy path before taking fresh positions.

    Attention is now focused on the upcoming FOMC Minutes, particularly as rising energy prices fuel renewed inflation concerns. Crude oil prices have climbed to a nearly three-week high amid ongoing tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent geopolitical risks are keeping the oil market supported, while higher energy prices could reinforce expectations for tighter US monetary policy.

    The combination of elevated oil prices and rising US Treasury yields continues to provide support for the US Dollar and may limit Gold’s upside potential. The 30-year US Treasury yield has also climbed to its highest level since June 2007, adding pressure to the non-yielding precious metal. Meanwhile, markets continue to price in a relatively high probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end.

    ING analysts note that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded from the 99.40 area, suggesting that the Greenback may not be ready for a sustained decline. The bank highlights higher energy prices and rising long-term Treasury yields as key factors supporting the USD and potentially reviving expectations for a September Fed rate hike.

    Persistent geopolitical uncertainty may also limit aggressive bearish positioning in the US Dollar, keeping the outlook for Gold cautious. Traders are therefore likely to await the FOMC Minutes for additional clues on interest rates and the Fed’s policy outlook.

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    XAUUSD chart by TradingView

    From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline and is trading well beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the short-term bias tilted to the downside despite the recent consolidation.

    The MACD remains above the zero line but has moved closer to its signal line, while the RSI stands at 59.24 in positive territory. This indicates that bullish momentum remains intact but could weaken if Gold fails to reclaim key resistance levels.

    On the upside, the $4,406 area represents the first resistance, followed by the 200-day SMA near $4,509 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,519.36. On the downside, initial support is seen around $4,292, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, followed by $4,152 at the 23.6% level and the broader structural support near $3,925.

    WTI Price Forecast: Oil Holds Near Three-Week High Below $85 as Bulls Target 100-SMA Breakout

    • WTI extends its bullish momentum for a fourth consecutive session, reaching a near three-week high.
    • Ongoing US-Iran tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to support oil prices.
    • A decisive break above the 100-day SMA could strengthen the outlook for further gains.

    WTI, the US crude oil benchmark, reaches a near three-week high during Wednesday’s Asian trading session but struggles to sustain gains above the $85.00 level. Despite the hesitation, oil prices remain on a bullish track for a fourth consecutive session, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding the US-Iran standoff.

    The situation around the Strait of Hormuz continues to underpin crude prices. US President Donald Trump indicated that the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, while Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the strategic waterway would stay closed until Washington meets the conditions outlined in a June memorandum of understanding. The ongoing uncertainty keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices and supports the near-term bullish outlook for WTI.

    From a technical perspective, WTI retains a constructive short-term bias while holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August decline at $82.38. Momentum indicators also lean slightly bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.90 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 0.47.

    WTI chart by TradingView

    However, upside potential remains limited unless WTI breaks above the key 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.09. A sustained move above this resistance could open the door toward the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $87.06, followed by the 61.8% level at $91.73, which would provide a stronger bullish signal.

    On the downside, $82.38 offers initial support, while deeper structural support is located around $76.60 and $67.25. A larger pullback toward these levels could attract renewed buying interest.

    Read more news and analysis

  • GBP Falls on Weak UK Jobs Data, EUR/USD Maintains Bullish Trend

    GBP Falls Below 1.3550 Ahead of UK CPI Data

    The GBP/USD pair edges lower to around 1.3535 during Wednesday’s early Asian session, with the British Pound coming under pressure after weaker-than-expected UK labor market figures. Market participants are now turning their attention to the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due later in the day, for fresh clues on the inflation outlook and the Bank of England’s policy path.

    Technical Analysis

    GBPUSD chart by TradingView

    On the daily timeframe, GBP/USD continues to exhibit a constructive bullish outlook, trading above both the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day midpoint, reinforcing the strength of the prevailing uptrend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60.8, remaining in positive territory without reaching overbought levels, indicating that upside momentum could persist in the near term.

    From a technical perspective, the pair faces immediate resistance near the upper Bollinger Band at 1.3615, a level that may limit further advances. On the downside, initial support is located around the Bollinger middle band at 1.3450, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.3420. Additional support is seen near the lower Bollinger Band at 1.3285. Holding above this key support cluster would keep the broader bullish structure intact and favor buying on pullbacks rather than signaling a trend reversal.

    Fundamental Analysis

    UK labour market data released by the Office for National Statistics showed that the unemployment rate held at 4.9% in the three months to June, slightly above the 4.8% market forecast. Meanwhile, average earnings including bonuses slowed to 4.1% from 4.4% previously, pointing to easing wage pressures and potentially reducing the likelihood of a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike later this year.

    Markets currently price in one BoE rate increase by year-end, which would take the benchmark rate from 3.75% to 4.0%. ING economist James Smith noted that persistent weakness in private-sector hiring and wage growth means the threshold for a 2026 rate hike remains relatively high unless energy prices experience a severe and sustained surge.

    Meanwhile, expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike have also declined, offering some support to GBP/USD by limiting further US Dollar gains. Markets now see around a 35% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, down from 47% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

    Scotiabank strategists noted that Sterling has weakened only modestly, broadly tracking declines among its major European peers. Although the latest UK employment figures were disappointing, the data has so far failed to create a significant downside divergence for the Pound.

    Economic Calendar by TradingView

    EUR/USD Strengthens Above 1.1550 as Bullish Outlook Holds

    The EUR/USD pair extends gains to trade near 1.1585 during early European hours on Wednesday. The Euro strengthens against the US Dollar after Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment survey exceeded market expectations. Investors now await a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day for fresh clues on the ECB’s monetary policy outlook.

    Technical Analysis

    EURUSD chart by TradingView

    On the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a bullish near-term outlook, with the pair trading above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the Bollinger middle band. This technical setup points to a positive underlying trend following the rebound from support near the lower Bollinger band at 1.1364. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63.8, indicating that buyers remain in control while momentum is approaching overbought levels without reaching them decisively.

    On the upside, the August 17 high at 1.1614 represents the first key resistance level. A sustained move above this area could expose the Bollinger upper band near 1.1650, where the pair may encounter stronger selling pressure.

    On the downside, initial support lies at the 100-day MA around 1.1570, followed by the Bollinger middle band at 1.1505. If selling pressure intensifies, EUR/USD could retreat toward the lower Bollinger band near 1.1365, with this level remaining important for maintaining the broader bullish trend.

    Fundamental Analysis

    Data released Tuesday showed that Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 34.2 in August from 26.3 previously, beating market expectations of 30.0. The ZEW Current Situation Index also improved significantly to -61.1 from -77.6 in July, coming in above the forecast of -68.8 and providing additional support for the Euro.

    Markets are increasingly pricing in further ECB rate hikes. According to the ECB Watch Tool, traders see a 90%–94% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase to 2.50% at the ECB’s next policy meeting on September 9.

    US Dollar remains supported despite weaker Fed hike expectations

    MUFG analysts noted that the recent shift in US Dollar sentiment, following last week’s economic data that reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes, has not resulted in significant unwinding of long-Dollar positions. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to hold above its 200-day moving average at 99.185, suggesting that the softer Fed policy outlook has yet to trigger a major Dollar sell-off.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average reflects growing war concerns

    • The DJIA falls nearly 260 points, slipping below the 53,500 mark and touching the mid-53,400 region.
    • The 30-year US Treasury yield climbs above 5.31%, reaching its highest level in nearly two decades.
    • Crude Oil jumps around 3% as the 60-day US-Iran negotiation framework expires.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost nearly 260 points on Monday, slipping below 53,500 and extending its decline for a second straight session. The index reached its intraday high at the opening bell before weakening throughout the day, with selling pressure intensifying late in the session as long-term US Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels since 2007.

    US-Iran standoff fuels Oil rally

    Market sentiment deteriorated after the expiration of the 60-day negotiating framework aimed at resolving tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, with no replacement agreement announced. Iranian officials warned that Tehran could adopt a more aggressive stance if diplomatic efforts fail, while the Revolutionary Guard reiterated that maritime traffic remains subject to Iranian approval until its conditions are met.

    The uncertainty boosted energy markets, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rising above $83.00 per barrel and Brent crude advancing beyond $88.00, each gaining roughly 3% on the day.

    Refiners benefit while the Dow misses out

    The surge in energy prices has continued to support US refining companies. Shares of major refiners such as Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 remain near record highs, benefiting from elevated refining margins and constrained global fuel supplies.

    However, the DJIA has limited exposure to this theme. Chevron is the index’s only energy constituent, leaving the benchmark less positioned to capitalize on the strong performance seen across the refining sector.

    Treasury yields signal inflation concerns

    The bond market remained a key driver of sentiment. The 30-year US Treasury yield climbed above 5.31%, its highest level in 19 years, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose beyond 4.72%. Even shorter-dated yields edged higher, indicating that investors are increasingly concerned about inflation rather than slowing economic growth.

    Higher energy costs, particularly elevated diesel prices, are viewed as a potential source of future inflationary pressure, raising concerns about transportation and production costs across the economy.

    Focus shifts to Fed minutes and key US data

    Investors will now turn their attention to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Wednesday for additional clues regarding the Fed’s policy outlook. Upcoming data on housing activity, industrial production, jobless claims, and business activity surveys will also help shape expectations for interest rates in the coming weeks.

    Technical outlook: Bearish bias remains intact

    US30 chart by TradingView

    The DJIA maintains a bearish near-term outlook after breaking below the 53,500 region. Immediate resistance is located near 53,500, followed by 53,800 and 53,900. Additional upside barriers emerge around 54,100 and the record high near 54,750.

    On the downside, initial support is seen around 53,400, followed by 53,200 and the psychological 53,000 level. A deeper correction could expose the 50-day EMA near 52,400.

    Momentum indicators continue to favor sellers, with the daily Stochastic RSI remaining elevated while the index forms lower highs and lower lows. A daily close back above 53,800 would be required to invalidate the current bearish bias.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Economic Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes and July Industrial Output in Focus

    The US economic calendar is packed with key data this week, with investors closely watching the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes and July industrial production figures.

    Last week delivered mixed inflation signals. Core CPI inflation eased to 2.5% year over year in July, marking its lowest level since March 2021. However, producer prices rose more sharply, with PPI increasing 4.4%. The July 28–29 FOMC minutes, due Wednesday, could offer insight into how Fed officials viewed inflation and monetary policy before receiving these latest readings.

    Economic Calendar by TradingView

    Other important US releases include weekly jobless claims, regional business surveys, and Friday’s preliminary PMI figures. Earnings activity is relatively light, with Walmart and Alibaba among the notable companies scheduled to report quarterly results.

    FOMC Meeting Minutes

    The July FOMC minutes may highlight differences among policymakers regarding the economic and inflation outlook. Expectations for the Fed’s next policy moves have shifted following the latest CPI and PPI data, with markets now pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a September rate hike, down from more than 50% previously.

    Jobless Claims

    Initial unemployment claims rose to 209,000 in the week through August 7, moving above the 200,000 threshold for the first time in several weeks. Nevertheless, the four-week average remained near 199,000, indicating that labor-market conditions are still relatively tight. Continuing claims also declined, suggesting layoffs remain limited.

    Business Activity Surveys

    Recent surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve districts showed a notable improvement in business activity during July. Investors will look to the August surveys for confirmation that the recovery in regional manufacturing and business conditions is continuing.

    Industrial Production

    July industrial production is another major focus. Manufacturing hours worked increased slightly during the month, potentially pointing to a modest rise in factory output.

    June industrial production had increased only 1.1% year over year, significantly weaker than the 4.8% annualized growth in real GDP goods during the second quarter. The persistent gap between these two measures has been evident for years, with GDP-related goods activity generally expanding faster than industrial production.

    Key Global Economic Data

    International markets will also have plenty to digest. Japan’s preliminary second-quarter GDP figures and China’s retail sales and industrial production data are due Monday. Canada will release inflation data, while the UK and euro area will publish additional inflation figures later in the week.

    Global government bond yields have risen considerably this year. Ten-year yields are approaching 5% in Australia and the UK, while US yields are around 4.7%. Germany and Japan remain lower, at roughly 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively.

    The upcoming economic releases could therefore provide important clues about whether the global bond-market repricing has further to go. Markets are also increasingly focused on the possibility of policy-rate increases from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank in September.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: BTC Faces Headwinds Amid Hormuz Strait Uncertainty

    • Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $62,900 on Friday, having lost more than 3% this week, though recent price action suggests the decline may be easing.
    • US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $332.08 million through Thursday, reflecting a more cautious stance among institutional investors.
    • Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to lift Oil prices and sustain a geopolitical risk premium, boosting demand for the US Dollar and limiting Bitcoin’s upside potential.

    Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $62,900 on Friday, down more than 3% for the week as cautious institutional participation and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to pressure sentiment. Although the cryptocurrency is showing signs of stabilization, elevated Oil prices and escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are limiting risk appetite and keeping the near-term outlook for BTC subdued.

    Middle East tensions continue to cap Bitcoin’s upside

    Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict remained a key market theme this week, constraining demand for risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin. On Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Washington is preparing unprecedented economic measures against Iran, signaling that additional announcements could be unveiled in the coming days.

    Meanwhile, Iranian officials maintained a defiant stance. Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated that Tehran’s objective is to make any confrontation so costly that future US administrations would hesitate before considering military action.

    The standoff has also intensified around the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump reiterated that the United States maintains complete control over the critical shipping route, while Iran insisted the strait would remain closed until its demands are satisfied. At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen increased attacks on vessels operating in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait and claimed responsibility for a drone strike targeting a Saudi Aramco refinery, heightening fears of a wider regional conflict.

    The combination of these developments has amplified uncertainty surrounding global energy supplies, sustaining a geopolitical risk premium in Oil markets. Higher energy prices and safe-haven demand have supported the US Dollar, weakened broader risk sentiment, and continued to act as a headwind for Bitcoin.

    Institutional demand remains subdued

    Institutional flows have provided little support for Bitcoin this week. According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of roughly $332 million through Thursday, highlighting a cautious approach among large investors. If Friday’s data also shows withdrawals, BTC could end the week with net ETF outflows, reflecting softer institutional demand and a more defensive market stance.

    Cooling US inflation offers support, but Oil-driven risks persist

    Recent US economic releases pointed to moderating inflationary pressures, potentially giving the Federal Reserve (Fed) greater flexibility to keep interest rates unchanged. While such a backdrop would normally favor risk assets, Bitcoin has struggled to capitalize on the softer macroeconomic data.

    The latest figures showed that US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.4% year-over-year in July, down from 3.5% previously and in line with expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% annually, matching forecasts. Meanwhile, Producer Price Index (PPI) data released on Thursday came in weaker than expected, with monthly prices unchanged and annual producer inflation slowing to 4.7% from 5.5%.

    Together with last week’s softer-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report, the data strengthens the case for the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its September meeting. A less aggressive monetary policy outlook generally benefits risk-oriented assets such as Bitcoin by reducing pressure from elevated borrowing costs and bond yields.

    Comments from Fed officials, however, continue to send mixed signals. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that recent inflation pressures are largely tied to temporary factors such as tariffs and energy costs, supporting a patient policy approach. In contrast, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argued that inflation remains too high and that additional tightening may still be necessary to ensure price stability.

    Market expectations have shifted accordingly. Fed funds futures now imply a little over a 65% chance of a rate hike before year-end, down sharply from nearly 85% a week ago. Although easing rate-hike expectations could provide a tailwind for Bitcoin, ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated Oil prices continue to bolster demand for the US Dollar, limiting the cryptocurrency’s upside potential in the near term.

    What could shape Bitcoin’s performance in the second half of August?

    According to Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, Bitcoin is currently in a phase of rebuilding momentum rather than entering a fresh bearish trend. The cryptocurrency has been trading within a volatile $63,000–$65,000 range, repeatedly struggling to secure a decisive breakout above the $65,000 mark.

    Despite headwinds from rising bond yields and broader market uncertainty, Massabni believes Bitcoin’s ability to hold relatively steady suggests that buyers have not exited the market. Instead, investors appear to be waiting for a stronger catalyst before increasing exposure.

    Bitcoin price by TradingView

    Addressing Bitcoin’s muted response to softer US inflation data, he noted that much of the positive inflation outlook had already been priced in by the market. Since the latest inflation figures largely met expectations, they failed to deliver the surprise needed to spark a new wave of buying. Investors are now focusing less on inflation itself and more on whether the data will lead to a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy and improved liquidity conditions.

    Looking ahead, Massabni maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook. His base-case scenario sees Bitcoin ending August near $70,000, with a potential trading range between $68,000 and $72,000. However, he expects the path higher to remain volatile, requiring BTC to reclaim the $67,000 level to reinforce bullish momentum. A sustained move below the $61,000–$62,000 region, meanwhile, could delay or invalidate this constructive outlook.

    Bitcoin technical outlook: Stabilization signals are beginning to appear

    Bitcoin was trading around $62,900 on Friday after a modest rebound in recent sessions. Since mid-July, BTC has largely moved sideways between the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $65,520 and the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $64,000, reflecting a prolonged consolidation phase.

    A weekly close above $65,520 could strengthen the recovery outlook and open the door for a move toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $78,490. Technical indicators on the weekly chart are showing early signs of improvement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been trending higher, reaching 38, while the bullish MACD crossover formed in mid-July remains intact, suggesting that downside momentum may be fading.

    On the other hand, failure to hold above the 200-week SMA could trigger renewed selling pressure, potentially exposing the ascending trendline support near $60,000.

    From a daily-chart perspective, Bitcoin remains in a broadly corrective structure. The cryptocurrency continues to trade below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and has been confined to a $62,300–$66,500 range since mid-July.

    Momentum indicators still favor caution. The daily RSI sits at 41, while the MACD histogram remains slightly negative, indicating that sellers retain a modest near-term advantage despite signs of stabilization.

    Key support is located at $62,300. A decisive break below this level could accelerate losses toward the July 1 yearly low of $57,800. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA near $64,458, followed by the 100-day EMA around $66,589, which aligns closely with horizontal resistance near $66,500. Until BTC regains these levels on a sustained basis, rallies may continue to face selling pressure, keeping the broader recovery attempt in check.

    Read more news and analysis

  • Gold Climbs Toward $4,400 as Fed Rate-Hike Bets Fade, While Silver Eyes Breakout Above $66.00

    Gold climbs toward $4,400 as easing Fed rate-hike expectations outweigh U.S.-Iran tensions.

    • Gold advances toward $4,395 in early Asian trading on Monday.
    • Weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes, supporting bullion.
    • Geopolitical tensions remained elevated after Iranian officials told President Trump to “accept the reality of defeat” and ruled out resuming talks with the United States.

    Gold prices (XAU/USD) advanced to around $4,395 during Monday’s Asian session, extending recent gains as softer US inflation readings continued to reduce expectations of additional Federal Reserve tightening.

    Fresh data from the US Census Bureau showed Retail Sales fell 0.6% month-over-month in July, reversing June’s 0.2% increase and missing market forecasts for a 0.1% rise. On an annual basis, sales growth slowed to 5.0% from a revised 6.8% previously, signaling weaker consumer demand.

    The disappointing retail figures reinforced last week’s CPI and PPI reports, which pointed to easing inflation pressures. As a result, the US Dollar came under pressure, providing support for gold, which is priced in USD.

    According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign roughly a 33% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. Expectations for lower borrowing costs tend to favor gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset.

    However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may influence market sentiment. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi criticized Washington after President Donald Trump suggested the Strait of Hormuz could soon become a “territory of the United States.” Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that no negotiations are underway between Tehran and Washington, emphasizing that US acceptance of Iran’s conditions would be required before shipping operations through the strategic waterway could resume.

    Despite near-term volatility, Commerzbank analysts maintain a constructive outlook for gold. They believe the metal retains further upside potential if the Fed refrains from additional rate increases, although they caution that gains are unlikely to occur in a straight line, citing recent price swings. The bank also highlighted renewed inflows into gold-backed ETFs as a supportive factor that strengthens the medium-term bullish case for the precious metal.

    Technical Analysis: Gold maintains a bullish bias above key support levels

    XAUUSD chart by TradingView

    Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade with a positive undertone on the daily chart, holding above its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and remaining well supported by the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint. As long as these technical foundations remain intact, the broader near-term outlook favors further upside.

    Momentum indicators also support the constructive view. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64.09, indicating bullish momentum while still remaining below overbought territory, leaving room for additional gains before buyers become overstretched.

    On the upside, the first significant resistance is located near the upper Bollinger Band around $4,480, a level that could attract selling interest following recent price advances. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day SMA near $4,385.85. A deeper pullback could target the Bollinger midpoint around $4,195, while a decisive break below that zone may open the door toward the lower Bollinger Band support near $3,905.

    Silver Price Outlook: XAG/USD Bulls Eye Sustained Break Above $66.00 Following 100-Day EMA Clearance

    • Silver extends its advance on Monday as persistent US Dollar weakness continues to support demand for the precious metal.
    • The broader technical picture remains positive, with momentum indicators favoring further upside in the near term.
    • However, a decisive breakout above the 100-day EMA is required to confirm the bullish outlook and open the door for additional gains.

    Silver (XAG/USD) builds on Friday’s rebound from the mid-$63.00 area and continues to attract buyers at the start of the week. The metal is trading above $65.00, gaining roughly 1.5% on the day, although it remains capped below the critical 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

    The US Dollar stays under pressure as investors further reduce expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes following softer inflation data and weak consumer spending figures in the United States. The weaker greenback is helping support demand for dollar-denominated commodities, including silver, reinforcing the potential for additional upside.

    From a technical standpoint, XAG/USD has been consolidating within a relatively narrow range over the past week. This price action appears to represent a bullish pause following the strong recovery from July’s year-to-date low and the breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May–July decline.

    XAGUSD chart by TradingView

    Technical indicators continue to favor buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 61, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory, signaling that bullish momentum remains intact. However, silver must decisively clear the 100-day EMA resistance around $66.33 to strengthen the near-term bullish outlook.

    A successful break above this level could expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $67.93, with further gains potentially targeting the midpoint retracement resistance around $72.02. On the downside, immediate support is located near the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $62.87. A move below this area could shift focus toward the lower boundary of the broader trading range around $54.70.

    Read more news and analysis

  • EUR/USD Is Starting to Look Undervalued

    EUR/USD: Showing Signs of Undervaluation

    Post-CPI summer trading conditions continue to suppress FX volatility, keeping EUR/USD largely range-bound. However, our models indicate that the pair is becoming somewhat undervalued in the short term, reinforcing our moderately bullish outlook for the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, developments in the Gulf remain a secondary driver for currencies, with their impact more evident in relative-value trades than in major USD pairs.

    USD: Watching for a Shift in Fed Rhetoric

    The post-CPI midsummer environment is naturally weighing on FX volatility, and this subdued backdrop could persist for at least the next couple of weeks. Despite this, we continue to favour some downside for the US dollar, as we believe markets remain overly confident about the prospect of further Federal Reserve tightening.

    For now, Fed officials’ comments represent the clearest potential catalyst for a meaningful market move. There remains considerable uncertainty over the tone that could emerge from the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, particularly after the latest CPI report pointed somewhat toward a dovish interpretation without providing a conclusive signal.

    Economic Calendar by TradingView

    Recent comments have offered mixed signals. Beth Hammack, who supported a rate hike, continued to argue in favour of tighter policy, while Tom Barkin expressed some reservations about the need for additional increases, despite not being viewed as a dovish FOMC member. A further softening in rhetoric from more centrist policymakers could strengthen expectations for a less hawkish Fed.

    Today’s US economic calendar features July retail sales, forecast to rise just 0.1% month-on-month, alongside the University of Michigan surveys. With both releases considered relatively secondary, they would likely need to significantly exceed or miss expectations to generate a substantial dollar move.

    Meanwhile, market attention toward Middle East headlines appears to be fading. US-Iran talks remain stuck, while Brent crude prices declined yesterday, offering some support to global bond markets. The threshold for oil prices to re-establish a strong direct influence on the dollar remains relatively high. Instead, Gulf developments may continue to have a greater impact on G10 relative-value pairs such as NOK/SEK and AUD/NZD, which remain more closely linked to the energy narrative.

    EUR: Increasingly Undervalued

    Our models estimate EUR/USD’s short-term fair value at around 1.1600–1.1650, largely reflecting an approximately 10bp narrowing in two-year swap rate differentials. These rate spreads continue to have a considerably stronger influence on the pair than other underlying factors.

    This supports our constructive view on EUR/USD, although we do not expect a sustained move above 1.1600 in the coming days unless Fed communication turns notably more dovish. For now, EUR/USD bulls may instead focus on the strengthening technical support around 1.1500.

    In the eurozone, the second estimate of second-quarter GDP is due today. Markets are not expecting any meaningful revision to the preliminary 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth figure.

    JPY: BoJ Expectations Yet to Support the Yen

    Despite significant moves in Japanese money markets this week, the yen has struggled to maintain upward momentum. The key development is the possibility that the Japanese government may become more accepting of a faster Bank of Japan tightening cycle.

    Previously, markets assumed that a growth-focused government would limit the BoJ to roughly one rate hike every six months. The latest signals suggest Tokyo is placing greater emphasis on the exchange rate and wants to ensure that any potential joint intervention with the US to support the yen — the first such operation since 1998 — is effective.

    Markets are now pricing roughly a 75% probability of a 25bp BoJ rate hike in September. As a result, two-year US-Japan swap differentials have narrowed by nearly 40bp since mid-July, a development that would normally put downward pressure on USD/JPY.

    The pair’s resilience may instead reflect benign market conditions that continue to favour yen-funded carry trades. Nevertheless, the risks surrounding yen funding are clearly increasing. If the Fed leaves rates unchanged in September as expected, USD/JPY could potentially fall back below 158. In the meantime, traders seeking to express outright yen strength may increasingly turn to short CHF/JPY positions.

  • Bitcoin: Will Patience Pay Off?

    The total crypto market capitalization has remained largely unchanged, hovering around its $2.19 trillion “centre of gravity” for a third consecutive day. It has traded within a narrow $2.18 trillion–$2.20 trillion range, extending the broader sideways trend that has persisted since early June.

    Prolonged periods of consolidation often encourage traders to tighten stop-loss levels and increase leverage as they become increasingly confident that the market will remain range-bound. This can sometimes set the stage for a final capitulation move, in which prices are pushed sharply lower before a recovery begins.

    At the same time, large trading volumes frequently emerge toward the end of extended consolidation phases as long-term investors gradually build positions around their market expectations. In the current environment, some investors may be positioning ahead of potential cryptocurrency legislation expected later this autumn after Congress returns from recess. While the medium-term outlook remains constructive, the possibility of another sharp correction over the coming weeks should not be dismissed.

    Bitcoin has struggled to move decisively away from support, hovering near $64,000 for a third consecutive day. The cryptocurrency was trading slightly below this level on Thursday morning but remained above its 50-day moving average.

    Interestingly, the current price area is close to the highs recorded during Bitcoin’s 2021 bull market. A similar pattern emerged three years ago, when Bitcoin’s decline eventually found a floor around $20,000—roughly matching the peak of the previous bull market in late 2017.

    This historical pattern strengthens the possibility that the current decline is approaching exhaustion, particularly as bearish momentum weakens and Bitcoin moves closer to its 200-week moving average. While short-term speculators may still be waiting for a more attractive entry point, long-term investors appear to be steadily accumulating around current levels. The relative stability of Bitcoin despite significant volatility across other markets provides further evidence of this underlying demand.

    At the end of 2022, Bitcoin briefly traded almost 25% below $20,000 before staging a strong recovery, effectively providing investors with a significant “discount.” A similar scenario could occur this time, although relying on another deep pullback would be risky.

    Bitcoin price by TradingView

    News Background

    Bitcoin’s extended downtrend may have reached a “point of exhaustion,” according to Fairlead Strategies, as selling pressure has eased. However, fading bearish momentum does not necessarily mean that an immediate reversal is imminent.

    Twenty One Capital posted a $413.5 million net loss in Q2, largely reflecting the decline in the value of Bitcoin held on its balance sheet. The company is the second-largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin, with 43,514 BTC valued at approximately $2.8 billion.

    Strategy CEO Phong Le said the company plans to resume Bitcoin purchases by the end of the year. He noted that its buying activity has been roughly 25 times greater than its selling, with Strategy purchasing approximately 175,000 BTC since January while selling around 7,000 BTC. Le described Strategy as the “JPMorgan of the digital economy.”

    Bitcoin miners continue to face weak fee revenue. Glassnode reports that transaction fees remain close to 10-year lows, while July was reportedly the least profitable month for miners in almost three years. Fees have represented less than 1% of miners’ total revenue over the past year.

    Crypto spot trading activity also weakened in July. According to Wu Blockchain, spot volumes across crypto exchanges dropped 21.7% from June, falling below the $500 billion threshold for the first time in three years. Futures activity, meanwhile, was approximately seven times larger than spot trading.

    On August 12, a routing failure at infrastructure provider TeraSwitch temporarily took validators representing 28.8% of Solana’s staked tokens offline. The figure came close to the 33.34% threshold at which the network would have stopped finalising transactions.

    Meanwhile, two heavily leveraged Bitcoin short positions worth more than $210 million combined were opened on Hyperliquid using 40x leverage. Their liquidation levels are reportedly around $64,100 and $64,600, respectively.

    In a separate development, one of Hong Kong’s early crypto millionaires, who began investing in cryptocurrencies in 2013, was found dead in Paraguay. Chainalysis reported 46 attacks targeting cryptocurrency holders during the first half of the year, resulting in losses exceeding $30 million.

  • Hormuz Tanker Traffic Falls as US-Iran Tensions Persist

    Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined further this week, with just five vessels crossing on Wednesday and nine on Thursday, below the monthly average of 12, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.

    On Thursday, five tankers entered the waterway while four departed, with most vessels using the Iranian side of the strait. By comparison, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea remained relatively active, with Kpler recording 19 commodity carriers passing through on Thursday. Reuters noted that the figures only include vessels with their transponders switched on.

    The decline in Hormuz traffic comes as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate. Washington has warned that its naval blockade of Iran could remain in place indefinitely and that additional sanctions may be imposed to further pressure the Iranian economy. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the Navy could sustain the blockade by rotating vessels and indicated that further measures could be announced in the coming week.

    Despite the increasingly prolonged standoff, oil prices have not fully reflected the potential supply risks. Traders have instead focused on a sharp increase in U.S. commercial crude inventories, which reportedly rose by more than 17.4 million barrels last week.

    However, global oil inventories are continuing to decline, even as countries release crude from strategic reserves. Meanwhile, China, whose historically low oil imports in May and June helped limit pressure on prices, has started increasing its crude purchases again.

    Analysts warn that if the deadlock over U.S.-Iran negotiations and control of the Strait of Hormuz continues for several more weeks, the physical oil market could reach a critical tipping point. At that stage, tightening supplies could trigger actual shortages and send oil prices sharply higher.

  • Forex Today: USD Weakens as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Ease Amid Middle East Stalemate

    The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure against major currencies on Friday, although it has managed to limit its decline as investors reassess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook and monitor ongoing developments in the Middle East. In Europe, markets are awaiting second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, while later in the US session, attention will turn to July Retail Sales and the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index.

    US economic data released Thursday showed that annual Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation eased to 4.7% in July from 5.5% in June, coming in below the 4.9% market forecast. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are now pricing roughly a 33% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, down from around 50% a week earlier. Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index remains below the 100.00 level during Friday’s European session.

    Fed hawkishness remains as August inflation approaches

    Commerzbank analysts believe upcoming US economic data will play a crucial role in determining the Fed’s next policy steps, particularly the August inflation figures due shortly before the next Fed meeting. They also pointed to Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack’s continued hawkish stance. Hammack argues that inflation is unlikely to decline on its own and that the Fed needs to support its rhetoric with concrete action. She has also suggested that a single rate hike would not be sufficient, highlighting that some policymakers remain focused on combating inflation despite recent signs of easing price pressures.

    Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that Washington plans to introduce measures against Iran that would be unprecedented, while US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the US could maintain its blockade of Iran indefinitely. Oil prices reacted higher early Friday, with crude gaining around 1% to trade near $81.30.

    Reuters reported Friday, citing three sources familiar with the matter, that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates as early as September and may accelerate its tightening pace thereafter from its current pattern of roughly two hikes per year. USD/JPY moved lower during the European morning, trading below 159.30.

    Yen reaction remains limited despite BoJ tightening expectations

    OCBC analysts noted that the Japanese Yen’s response has remained relatively muted despite growing expectations for another BoJ rate increase. If the central bank hikes rates again in September, it would represent its third increase within nine months and the fastest pace of monetary tightening since the collapse of Japan’s asset bubble in 1989. However, OCBC cautioned that uncertainty remains over the government’s willingness to support further rate increases beyond September or October, leaving investors unsure about the ultimate pace of Japan’s policy normalisation.

    Gold remains pressured by Middle East uncertainty

    Despite the changing expectations surrounding a September Fed rate move, uncertainty over the Middle East continues to limit Gold’s upside potential. After ending Thursday in negative territory, Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure on Friday, trading below $4,350 during the European session and down around 0.5% on the day.

    EUR/USD recovered after dipping toward 1.1500 on Thursday and finished the session almost unchanged. The pair extended its recovery slightly on Friday, trading just below 1.1550. The Eurozone economy is expected to have expanded at an annualized rate of 1% in the second quarter.

    GBP/USD also moved higher early Friday, fluctuating around 1.3500 after recording modest declines over the previous two sessions.

  • Gold remains under pressure but stays above $4,300 as declining Fed hike expectations weigh on the US Dollar.

    • Gold extends its decline for a second straight day on Friday.
    • Easing expectations for a Fed rate hike may help cushion further downside in the non-yielding precious metal.
    • Ongoing geopolitical tensions could support the safe-haven US Dollar, potentially limiting gains in bullion.

    Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher from around $4,300 heading into the European session on Friday, but remains in negative territory for a second consecutive day. The precious metal is attempting to stabilize after pulling back from $4,450, its highest level since June 5, reached the previous day. However, a mixed fundamental backdrop suggests caution before assuming the correction will extend.

    Open wooden chest containing gold bars and numerous gold coins spilling out

    US inflation data has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may remain patient with interest rates. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat in July, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase, while annual PPI inflation eased sharply to 4.7% from 5.5% in June and came in below the 4.9% forecast. Combined with Wednesday’s softer Consumer Price Index (CPI), the data points to moderating inflation and has kept the US Dollar under pressure, providing some support for non-yielding Gold.

    Market expectations for Fed policy have shifted noticeably. The probability of a September rate hike has fallen to around 40%, compared with 72% at the end of July, while futures now price just over a 65% chance of a rate hike by year-end, down from nearly 85% a week earlier. Recent comments from Fed officials have also highlighted divisions over the appropriate policy path. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized patience, arguing that recent price increases may be temporary, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack maintained that inflation remains too high and could require additional rate increases.

    Geopolitical tensions, however, could provide support for the safe-haven US Dollar and limit Gold’s upside. US officials have issued strong warnings toward Iran, while Tehran has vowed to make any potential conflict costly. Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are adding to the war-risk premium, with the US claiming control over the strategic waterway and Iran threatening to keep it closed until its demands are met. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthis have intensified attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict.

    Against this backdrop, Gold’s downside appears relatively limited, but the mixed fundamental picture makes aggressive directional bets risky. XAU/USD has so far stalled its broader monthly advance from around the psychological $4,000 level. Traders will now focus on upcoming US Retail Sales and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for fresh clues on the economic and monetary-policy outlook.

    XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart – Technical Analysis

    XAUUSD chart by TradingView

    Gold remains above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, while a cluster of Fibonacci support levels suggests that the broader bullish trend remains intact despite the recent correction. However, momentum has weakened. The MACD is trading below both zero and its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to around 42, indicating that buying pressure is losing strength.

    On the downside, the first key support is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,285, based on the latest move higher from the August swing low. A break below this level could expose the 50.0% retracement near $4,234, followed by the 61.8% level around $4,184. The 200-period EMA also provides additional support in this area.

    On the upside, immediate resistance stands at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $4,347. Beyond that, Gold faces a major barrier around the $4,448.40 cycle high. A sustained break above this level would reinforce the bullish outlook and potentially open the door to further gains.

  • Dow Jones futures remain largely unchanged ahead of the release of US Retail Sales data.

    • Dow Jones futures remain subdued as investors await the release of key US July Retail Sales data.
    • Weaker-than-expected PPI figures reduced expectations for a September Fed rate hike to 34.8%.
    • The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, while major US indexes ended Thursday with strong gains.

    Dow Jones futures remain broadly unchanged around 53,910 during European trading on Friday, while S&P 500 futures hover near 7,820 and Nasdaq 100 futures edge down 0.09% to around 30,160.

    US stock futures are trading in a narrow range as investors await July Retail Sales data, which could provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Cooling inflation has weighed on expectations for a September rate hike, with the CME FedWatch Tool now showing a 32.4% probability, down from 40.6% after the latest inflation figures.

    The shift follows weaker-than-expected US producer inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline PPI was unchanged in July, below expectations for a 0.2% increase and following a revised 0.1% decline in June. Core PPI rose 0.2%, slightly below the 0.3% forecast. On a yearly basis, headline PPI increased 4.7%, while core PPI climbed 4.2%.

    The softer inflation backdrop has added to the bullish momentum from Thursday, when major US indexes posted strong gains. The S&P 500 advanced 0.65% to a fresh record high, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.81%, putting both indexes on track for a third straight weekly advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 70 points but remains set for a weekly decline.

    Market rally broadens beyond mega-cap technology

    Deutsche Bank strategists noted that the latest equity rally was supported by a recovery in the Magnificent 7, which gained 1.20%, alongside broader strength across technology stocks. The Nasdaq rose 0.81%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index advanced 0.46%.

    More importantly, the equal-weighted S&P 500 gained 0.74% and also reached a new record high, suggesting that the market’s gains are broadening beyond the largest technology companies and spreading across a wider range of stocks.

  • Bitcoin struggles to gain momentum even as markets scale back Fed tightening bets

    Bitcoin edged lower on Wednesday, slipping 0.2% to $63,487, as easing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike failed to offset lingering market concerns. Investor sentiment was weighed down by fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as well as continued pressure from recent selling activity by Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.

    Variety of cryptocurrency coins including Bitcoin, Ripple, and Ethereum.

    July Inflation Data Meets Expectations

    Markets closely monitored the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for clues on the Fed’s next policy move. The data followed a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report that had already prompted traders to reassess the likelihood of additional rate increases.

    Economic Calendar by TradingView

    According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month in July after falling 0.4% in June, while annual inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.5%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.2% on a monthly basis and slowed to 2.5% year-over-year from 2.6%. All figures matched market forecasts.

    Attention now shifts to the Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could provide further insight into inflation trends. While CPI and PPI remain important indicators, the Federal Reserve primarily focuses on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index when assessing inflation pressures.

    Fed Rate Expectations Shift

    The inflation data reinforced the view that policymakers may have room to keep interest rates unchanged rather than raise them further. Following the CPI release, CME FedWatch data showed the probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leaving rates unchanged in September rising to 62%, up from 54% previously.

    JPMorgan economists Michael Feroli and Harry Downie estimated that core PCE likely increased 0.22% in July, which would keep the annual reading unchanged at 3.3%. However, they noted that the estimate could be revised after the release of July’s PPI figures.

    The analysts added that the latest inflation report was unlikely to significantly strengthen either the hawkish or dovish camp within the Fed, leaving policymakers dependent on upcoming employment and inflation data. JPMorgan continues to expect a rate increase in December, although the possibility of an earlier move remains elevated.

    Geopolitical Tensions Keep Markets on Edge

    Beyond monetary policy, investors remained focused on developments in the Middle East. Hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz weakened as both the United States and Iran maintained firm positions regarding control of the strategic shipping route.

    WTI chart by TradingView

    Former President Donald Trump stated that the United States had “total control” over the strait, while Iranian officials reiterated demands that Washington end hostilities and release frozen assets before any reopening could occur.

    The uncertain outlook contributed to renewed volatility in energy markets. Brent crude briefly approached the $90-per-barrel mark as traders assessed supply risks linked to disruptions in the region. Additional concerns emerged after reported attacks on commercial shipping routes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Oman.

    Altcoins Mostly Decline

    The broader cryptocurrency market largely mirrored Bitcoin’s cautious performance. Ethereum gained 0.2% to trade near $1,881, while XRP fell 1.1%.

    Elsewhere, Solana and BNB each slipped around 0.3%, while Cardano dropped 2.1%. Among meme-based cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin lost 1.8% and the TRUMP token declined 3.2%.

    Overall, softer inflation data and reduced expectations for near-term Fed tightening provided limited support to digital assets, with geopolitical uncertainty and broader market caution continuing to cap upside momentum.

  • Silver Price Outlook: XAG/USD Holds Near $65.40 as Diminishing Fed Hawkishness Supports Bullish Bias

    • Silver prices remain range-bound near $65.40 as investors await the release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) figures.
    • Softer-than-expected US inflation readings for July have prompted markets to scale back expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
    • Both headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures in the United States eased in line with forecasts.

    Silver (XAG/USD) traded within a narrow range around $65.40 during Thursday’s Asian session, with investors awaiting fresh direction from upcoming US economic data. While price action remained subdued, easing inflationary pressures in the United States have continued to support the metal’s broader outlook.

    Silver bars and coins, including Scottsdale Mint and Valcambi bars, on wooden table

    Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 3.4% year-over-year in July from 3.5% in June. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also eased to 2.5% from 2.6%, matching market expectations.

    The softer inflation readings have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may refrain from raising interest rates further in the near term. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its September meeting has climbed to nearly 60%, compared with just 30.4% a month earlier.

    A less aggressive monetary policy outlook tends to benefit non-yielding assets such as Silver, as lower interest rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.

    Market participants now turn their attention to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for July, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, which could provide additional clues about the inflation trend and the Fed’s policy path.

    Silver Technical Analysis

    XAGUSD chart by TradingView

    Silver continues to consolidate around $65.40 while maintaining a positive technical structure above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61.66. Holding above this key short-term trend indicator suggests that buying interest remains intact despite the recent pause in upward momentum.

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61.17, remaining in bullish territory while still below overbought levels, indicating there is room for further gains if buying pressure strengthens.

    On the downside, the 20-day EMA at $61.66 serves as immediate support and remains the key level to watch. A decisive break below this area could trigger a deeper correction. On the upside, a breakout above the current consolidation zone and resistance at $66.59 could pave the way for a move toward the June 16 peak near $71.19.

  • Gold Retreats From June 5 Peak, Falls Below $4,400 as Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Lift Dollar

    • Gold fails to hold gains after climbing to its highest level since June 5 during the Asian session.
    • Persistent inflation concerns linked to volatile oil prices continue to support expectations of further Fed rate hikes.
    • Escalating geopolitical tensions boost demand for the US dollar, adding pressure on gold and triggering an intraday retreat.

    Gold (XAU/USD) gave back its earlier gains on Thursday, retreating from an intraday high near $4,450—the strongest level since June 5 reached during the Asian session—and falling back below the $4,400 mark. Initial support from softer US inflation data faded as investors refocused on the risk that rising energy prices could reignite inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may still need to tighten policy further. The prospect of higher interest rates prompted some profit-taking in the non-yielding precious metal.

    Data released on Wednesday showed US inflation cooled in July, with headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth easing to 3.4% year-over-year from 3.5%, in line with forecasts. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also met expectations, rising 0.2% on the month and 2.5% annually. Combined with last week’s weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report, the figures strengthened the case for the Fed to keep rates unchanged in September, offering temporary support to gold prices.

    However, concerns over future inflation remain elevated due to ongoing volatility in energy markets. Tensions between the United States and Iran continue to threaten oil supplies, with Washington and Tehran maintaining opposing positions over the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi forces have intensified attacks on shipping routes in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, increasing geopolitical risks and helping sustain higher crude oil prices.

    The resulting inflation concerns have kept expectations for additional Fed tightening alive. Market pricing continues to suggest a strong likelihood of at least one further rate increase in 2026. These expectations have supported a rebound in the US dollar from post-CPI lows, creating headwinds for gold and contributing to Thursday’s pullback. Even so, analysts note that a sustained move below $4,400 would be needed to confirm a deeper corrective decline.

    Attention now turns to upcoming US economic data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly Initial Jobless Claims figures. Comments from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials will also be closely monitored for clues on the future path of monetary policy. Meanwhile, developments in the Middle East are likely to remain a key driver of market sentiment and short-term volatility in gold prices.

    Technical Analysis

    XAUUSD chart by TradingView

    Gold remains biased to the upside after closing above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and breaking through the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June decline. Bullish momentum is further supported by an elevated Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, signaling that buyers continue to maintain control. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.44, just below overbought territory, suggesting the rally remains intact although momentum may be approaching stretched levels.

    A sustained move above the recent swing high could open the door for a test of the 200-day SMA near $4,502. Beyond that, resistance is located at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $4,525.18. A decisive break above this zone may pave the way for further gains toward $4,683, followed by the next major upside target around $4,885.

    On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA near $4,387. Additional support levels are positioned at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around $4,302 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,164.38. Should selling pressure intensify, a more substantial support base emerges near $3,941.47.