Last Updated on 26/08/2026
Gold Climbs Above $4,650 as US Dollar Weakens and Treasury Buybacks Support Demand
- Gold price extends its rally to around $4,670, marking its highest level in more than three months during early Asian trading on Wednesday.
- A weaker US Dollar and declining Treasury yields continue to support demand for the precious metal.
- The Trump administration expanded secondary sanctions on Iran, increasing geopolitical and inflation-related risks.
Gold (XAU/USD) rises toward $4,670, its strongest level since May 14, as the precious metal benefits from broad US Dollar weakness and expectations surrounding the US Treasury’s bond buyback program.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently indicated that Treasury buybacks could exceed $4 billion, following plans to double purchases of longer-dated government securities. The prospect of reduced Treasury supply has pushed longer-term yields lower and encouraged short-covering in the bond market, indirectly supporting gold.
A weaker Greenback makes USD-denominated gold more affordable for international buyers, while lower Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are also gaining attention. The Trump administration has expanded secondary sanctions against entities and countries maintaining business relationships with Iran. Escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran could fuel concerns over energy prices and inflation, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.
However, higher inflation expectations and the possibility of future Fed rate hikes could limit gold’s upside, as higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-interest-bearing bullion.
Markets will closely watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday for fresh clues about the US interest-rate outlook. Any hawkish signals from Fed officials could trigger some profit-taking in gold.
Gold Rally May Be Vulnerable to Macro Risks
TD Securities cautions that the latest gold rally could prove premature. With markets still pricing in potential rate hikes into 2027 and energy prices remaining a significant risk, the bank believes the current move may face challenges before gold can establish another sustained run toward record highs.
Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Remains Bullish but Overbought
Gold maintains a bullish near-term structure on the daily chart, trading comfortably above its 100-day SMA and the Bollinger middle band. The price is now approaching the upper portion of the Bollinger range, while the 14-day RSI near 73 indicates overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial support is located around $4,380, corresponding to the 100-day SMA, followed by the Bollinger middle band near $4,340. A deeper correction could bring the lower Bollinger band around $3,955 into focus.
To the upside, $4,725 represents the key resistance level near the upper Bollinger band. A sustained daily close above this area could reinforce the bullish trend and expose gold to further gains. Conversely, failure to break above $4,725 may trigger consolidation or a pullback as overbought conditions ease.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Above $69 as Markets Await US PCE Inflation Data
- Silver price (XAG/USD) rises nearly 1% to around $69.40, supported by falling oil prices and easing concerns over energy supply disruptions.
- Iran and Oman have resumed discussions aimed at establishing a temporary maritime corridor to facilitate safer navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Investors turn their attention to the US July PCE inflation report and the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) advances toward $69.40 during Wednesday’s Asian session, extending its recovery as crude oil prices decline. The move comes amid growing optimism that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nearly one-fifth of global energy supplies, could gradually resume.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi reportedly discussed an interim framework designed to restore safe maritime traffic through the strategic waterway. The development has reduced concerns over a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.
Lower oil prices could ease inflationary pressures and reduce expectations for aggressive interest-rate hikes from major central banks. This environment tends to benefit non-yielding assets such as silver.
Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July, due at 12:30 GMT. Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to remain at 3.3% YoY, while monthly growth is forecast at 0.2%, up from 0.1% in June.
The Jackson Hole Symposium will also be a major market catalyst this week, with investors looking for further signals about the Fed’s approach to inflation and interest rates.
Jackson Hole Could Shape the Fed Rate Outlook
TD Securities views Friday’s Jackson Hole event as the week’s key macroeconomic risk. Investors are expected to focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s prepared remarks for clearer guidance on the central bank’s inflation mandate.
The bank expects the Fed to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, although it notes that persistently elevated inflation and a stabilized labor market could shift policymakers’ attention further toward price stability.
If the Federal Reserve makes a policy move this year, TD Securities believes a rate hike could be more likely than a rate cut, potentially limiting silver’s upside.
Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Maintains Bullish Momentum
On the daily chart, XAG/USD trades around $69.17, remaining comfortably above its 20-day EMA at $65.12. The sustained distance above this dynamic support level keeps the short-term outlook bullish.
The 14-day RSI stands at 64.65, indicating positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory. This suggests that buyers retain control without the market showing clear signs of exhaustion.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA around $65.12 represents the first major support level. A sustained break below it could weaken the near-term bullish structure.
To the upside, the June 17 high at $71.56 is the key resistance level. A decisive break above this barrier could reinforce the bullish trend and open the way toward higher levels.
Leave a Reply