How movements in one of finance’s oldest ratios can potentially help investors turn the same amount of capital into a larger precious-metals holding.

Imagine two investors starting with exactly the same position: ten ounces of gold.

The first investor simply holds the gold and does nothing. Twenty years later, that investor still owns ten ounces. The dollar value may have increased significantly, but measured in gold, the position has not grown.

The second investor pays attention to the relationship between gold and silver. When gold becomes unusually expensive compared with silver, the investor converts some gold into silver. Later, when silver becomes relatively expensive compared with gold, the investor reverses the trade.

For example, assume the first conversion occurs when the gold-silver ratio is 100, and the second takes place when the ratio falls to 50. Ten ounces of gold would convert into 1,000 ounces of silver. If those 1,000 ounces are later exchanged when the ratio reaches 50, they would represent 20 ounces of gold.

Both investors began with ten ounces. Neither added new capital. Yet one still has ten ounces, while the other has doubled the amount of gold owned.

Of course, real-world investing is far more complicated. Transaction costs, taxes and the challenge of identifying turning points can significantly affect the outcome. Markets rarely provide such perfectly timed opportunities. Nevertheless, the underlying mathematics highlights an important idea: for precious-metals investors, wealth does not necessarily have to be measured in currency. It can also be measured in ounces.

A Ratio Rather Than a Conventional Price

The gold-silver ratio is one of the oldest measures used in financial markets. Its calculation is straightforward: divide the price of one ounce of gold by the price of one ounce of silver. If gold trades at $4,000 and silver at $50, the ratio is 80, meaning one ounce of gold has the same market value as 80 ounces of silver.

For much of history, this relationship was remarkably stable. When gold and silver were both widely used as money, governments often established official exchange rates between the two metals. Rome used a ratio of approximately 12:1, while the United States adopted a 15:1 ratio under the Coinage Act of 1792. For extended periods, ratios in the 12-to-15 range were relatively common.

That monetary framework gradually disappeared during the nineteenth century as major economies moved away from bimetallism and silver lost its formal monetary role. Germany moved toward the gold standard following 1871, while the United States ended the monetary standard for the silver dollar in 1873. Other industrial economies followed similar paths. By 1900, the ratio had climbed to approximately 34.5:1.

The modern relationship between the two metals is very different. Central banks around the world hold tens of thousands of tonnes of gold but virtually no silver reserves. Silver, meanwhile, has developed into an important industrial commodity, with applications ranging from electronics and solar panels to automobiles and electrical infrastructure.

There is no longer a government-fixed exchange rate between the two metals. Instead, the ratio fluctuates as gold and silver respond differently to monetary policy, economic conditions, industrial demand, investor sentiment, fear and speculation.

That volatility is what creates potential opportunities.

Why the Gold-Silver Ratio Changes

The strategy works because gold and silver do not always move in tandem.

Gold continues to function primarily as a monetary and investment asset. Central banks accumulate gold, while investors often turn to it during periods of economic or financial uncertainty. Compared with silver, relatively little of gold’s annual demand comes from industrial applications.

Silver has a more complicated role. Investment demand makes it sensitive to many of the same factors that influence gold, but its industrial applications tie it closely to manufacturing, electronics, solar energy and the broader economic cycle. Silver is also a considerably smaller market and has historically experienced greater price volatility.

These differences can produce substantial changes in the gold-silver ratio.

During periods of severe financial stress, gold can outperform as investors seek monetary protection, while concerns about industrial demand can put additional pressure on silver. The ratio therefore rises. When precious-metals sentiment improves and silver begins catching up, the relationship can reverse just as quickly.

The dramatic move during the March 2020 pandemic panic illustrates the point. The ratio climbed to approximately 125.7 as silver suffered a sharp sell-off. By contrast, major silver rallies in 1980 and 2011 pushed the ratio toward roughly 15 and 30, respectively.

However, historical extremes should be treated as reference points rather than fixed rules. A ratio of 80 does not automatically mean silver is undervalued, just as a ratio of 50 does not guarantee that gold will outperform.

Markets do not have to return to their historical averages.

The Challenge of Transaction Costs

Transaction costs introduce another important consideration.

Regularly moving between physical gold and silver can quickly reduce the theoretical gains of a ratio strategy. Dealer premiums, bid-ask spreads, storage expenses and the practical difficulties of handling physical coins and bars all reduce the amount of metal retained after each transaction.

As a result, repeatedly rotating between physical gold and silver can be considerably less efficient than the simple mathematical example suggests.

Goldwise attempts to reduce some of this friction.

Goldwise currently charges a 0.50% fee on fractional precious-metal purchases and sales, compared with transaction costs that can reach approximately 4–8% when buying and selling physical coins and bars. Lower trading costs mean the gold-silver ratio does not need to move as dramatically before a potential rotation becomes economically meaningful.

If investors can hold allocated precious metals and switch between gold and silver at relatively low cost, a greater share of the change in relative value can potentially remain with the investor after the transaction.

Taxes can create an additional obstacle. In a conventional strategy, selling one metal may trigger a taxable gain, depending on the investor’s circumstances, before the proceeds are used to purchase the other metal.

Goldwise is currently exploring whether fractional holdings could eventually be converted into physical coins and bars—and potentially exchanged between metals—without requiring investors to sell their position first. If such functionality were introduced, it could potentially make ratio-based strategies more efficient in terms of both transaction costs and taxation, although the actual tax treatment would depend on each investor’s individual circumstances and jurisdiction.

A move in the ratio from 100 to 50 is large enough to potentially overcome substantial trading friction. Smaller movements are a different matter. When rotations are repeated over many years, transaction costs can become a major component of the overall strategy.

Lower costs do not create profitable trades by themselves. They simply allow more of the benefit from a successful rotation to remain after the transaction.

The Risk of Getting the Timing Wrong

The mathematical example is appealing: exchange gold for silver at a ratio of 100, switch back at 50, and double the amount of gold owned.

In reality, markets rarely follow such a clean path.

Imagine an investor converts gold into silver when the ratio reaches 100. Instead of declining, the ratio rises to 120 and eventually remains between 120 and 150 for several years. Silver continues to underperform the gold that was exchanged, leaving the investor in an increasingly uncomfortable position.

Switching back too early could lock in a loss measured in ounces. Continuing to hold requires patience, while offering no guarantee that the ratio will eventually return to previous levels.

For that reason, historical ratios are generally more useful as reference points than as automatic buy-or-sell signals.

Investors may choose to spread conversions across multiple ratio levels rather than moving their entire position at once. Another approach is to maintain a permanent core holding of gold and silver while using only a smaller portion of the portfolio for tactical rotations.

The underlying objective remains straightforward:

The goal is not necessarily to accumulate more dollars. It is to finish with more ounces of precious metals than you started with.

• WTI crude prices hover near their highest level since July 24 as Middle East tensions heighten supply concerns.
• US crude inventories decline by 4.45 million barrels, significantly surpassing expectations.
• WTI remains above key moving averages, while resistance between $90 and $92 limits near-term upside.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil experienced choppy trading on Wednesday as rising tensions in the Middle East kept volatility high and supported a stronger geopolitical risk premium. WTI was trading near $89.70 per barrel after climbing to an intraday peak of $90.78, its highest level since July 24.

The latest boost to oil prices came after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported that two oil tankers hit naval mines while attempting to pass through the waterway. The IRGC said the vessels were disabled and their crews evacuated after allegedly ignoring warnings about using what authorities called an “illegal route.”

Oil also received support from a sharper-than-expected decline in US crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 4.45-million-barrel draw last week, far exceeding forecasts for a 1.1-million-barrel decline and reversing the previous week’s 95,000-barrel increase.

However, further gains may remain limited as oil flows through the Persian Gulf continue to recover. Brown Brothers Harriman strategists pointed to Goldman Sachs estimates showing regional oil exports have rebounded to around two-thirds of their pre-war level of 20 million barrels per day. US Energy Secretary estimates similarly indicate that about 8 million barrels per day are currently moving through the Strait of Hormuz, while another 4–5 million barrels are being transported through alternative pipelines. This suggests supply disruptions are gradually easing despite continued geopolitical risks.

Markets now turn to Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting. Reuters reported that the alliance is expected to maintain its existing oil production policy for October, citing three sources familiar with the discussions.

Technical Analysis

WTI maintains a broadly constructive outlook on the daily chart, trading well above its 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Nevertheless, the $90–$92 area remains a major resistance zone that could restrict further gains in the near term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 64, while the MACD remains positive, indicating continued upward momentum. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is near 16, suggesting that the current bullish trend lacks strong conviction.

A decisive move above $92 could pave the way toward $95 and potentially the psychological $100 level. On the downside, the 100-day SMA around $85 provides the first key support. A sustained break below this level could bring the 200-day SMA near $77 into focus, while the $67–$65 area would become relevant if both moving-average supports fail.

• Gold moves higher as a weaker US Dollar offsets the impact of elevated Treasury yields.
• Speculation over possible Yen intervention weighs on the Greenback despite strong bond yields.
• Concerns about potential strikes on Iran keep Oil near $90, reinforcing inflation pressures.

Gold (XAU/USD) surged more than 1% on Wednesday, supported by a weaker US Dollar amid speculation that Japanese authorities may have stepped into currency markets to strengthen the Japanese Yen (JPY). Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remained elevated despite disappointing US employment data. At the time of writing, gold was trading around $4,373.

The Yen gained broadly against major currencies, fueling market chatter about a possible FX intervention or rate-check operation by Japanese officials. However, authorities have not confirmed any such actions.

Gold Benefits from Dollar Weakness Despite Higher Yields

The precious metal continued to attract buyers even as the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.79%, largely unchanged from Tuesday’s close. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.06% to 99.59.

Adding to market uncertainty, US President Donald Trump stated that Washington is “prepared to do another attack on Iran,” although he suggested any military action would not last long. His comments helped extend gains in oil markets, with WTI crude edging up to $90.86 per barrel.

Despite rising energy prices, Treasury yields showed little reaction, as investors viewed higher oil costs as a factor that could keep inflation elevated and support higher interest rates for longer.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book indicated modest growth in economic activity since early July, with slight improvements in employment conditions. Inflation pressures remained present, as prices increased across eight Fed districts.

Labor market data released Wednesday showed private-sector hiring slowed more than expected in August. According to the ADP Employment Report, payrolls rose by just 38,000, below the 47,000 forecast and down from July’s 46,000 increase.

New York Fed President John Williams noted that elevated bond yields reflect the strength of the US economy rather than rising inflation expectations. He emphasized that inflation remains under control and that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned to guide inflation back toward the Fed’s 2% target.

Market participants are now focused on upcoming US economic releases, including the ISM Services PMI and Friday’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Gold Technical Outlook: Focus Turns to $4,400

Gold has climbed back above the $4,300 level and regained the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,361, a development that could support additional upside. However, near-term momentum indicators still suggest caution.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral 50 mark, signaling that sellers continue to hold a slight advantage and that downside risks have not completely faded.

If bearish pressure resumes, initial support is seen at $4,300, followed by the 50-day SMA around $4,223. A deeper decline could expose the key $4,200 support zone.

On the upside, a move above $4,400 would strengthen the bullish case and open the door toward $4,450, followed by the psychologically important $4,500 level. A sustained breakout beyond that area could target the 200-day SMA near $4,531 and potentially extend toward $4,600.

• Silver prices extend their decline as a global bond selloff pushes the 10-year US Treasury yield to a 2025 peak of 4.80%.
• Escalating tensions between the US and Iran drive oil prices higher, raising concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies.
• Mixed US economic indicators keep traders focused on upcoming employment data for further clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) continues to weaken for a second consecutive session, trading near $63.40 per troy ounce during Wednesday’s Asian session. The non-yielding precious metal remains under pressure as a broad selloff in global bonds lifted the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.80%, its highest level since early 2025. The rise in yields has renewed concerns about persistent inflation and the possibility of additional interest-rate hikes.

Inflation worries have also intensified following a sharp increase in crude oil prices amid growing tensions between the United States and Iran. The geopolitical escalation has raised fears of disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East. TD Securities noted that the latest developments highlight the fragile nature of any agreements between the two sides, keeping geopolitical risk elevated and supporting a risk premium in oil markets.

Meanwhile, US economic indicators have delivered mixed signals. July JOLTS job openings came in below expectations at 7.27 million, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 54.6 in August from 55.6 previously. Although the reading missed forecasts, it remained firmly above the 50 threshold, pointing to continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Investors are now awaiting the ADP employment report and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls figures for clearer indications of the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

Fed’s Barr maintains a hawkish stance as inflation remains a concern

Federal Reserve official Barr adopted a somewhat more hawkish tone, with the FXS Speechtracker scoring his remarks at 7/10, above the historical average of 6.8. He emphasized that inflation remains elevated despite a stable labor market and solid growth supported by artificial intelligence. His conditional guidance suggests the Fed could keep interest rates unchanged if inflation continues to ease, while leaving the door open to another hike should price pressures persist.

This stance points to a tightening-leaning policy reaction function and suggests the Fed has limited tolerance for a renewed acceleration in inflation, potentially providing continued support for the US Dollar.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell 0.42 points to 128.86, reflecting a modest decline in perceived hawkishness. However, the index remains well above the neutral 100 level, indicating that the broader Federal Reserve policy environment continues to favor a hawkish stance and may keep the Dollar supported against lower-yielding currencies.

• WTI prices rise as renewed US-Iran hostilities and threats against Kharg Island heighten concerns over disruptions to global crude supplies.
• Strait of Hormuz risks intensify after a supertanker struck naval mines, underscoring the growing threats to one of the world’s most important oil transit routes.
• Russian refinery attacks by Ukraine have reduced refining capacity, pushing fuel margins to record levels and adding further pressure to global energy markets.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced for a second consecutive session, trading near $85.60 per barrel during Tuesday’s Asian trading hours. The latest gains came as renewed conflict in the Middle East fueled fears that regional instability could disrupt oil production and transportation.

Tensions escalated after US forces reportedly targeted Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, followed by Iranian attacks on targets in the UAE and Jordan. Concerns increased further after President Donald Trump warned of possible military action against Kharg Island, Iran’s key oil export terminal.

The Strait of Hormuz has also emerged as a major source of supply risk. A supertanker reportedly caught fire after hitting two naval mines, highlighting the vulnerability of vessels operating through the strategic waterway. Despite the incident, oil shipments have continued, although major Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq are reportedly maintaining only partial flows.

Meanwhile, attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries have further reduced global refining capacity. The combination of tighter Middle Eastern supply prospects and weaker Russian refining operations has pushed refined-product margins to record highs, signaling growing strain across energy markets.

US–Venezuela Oil Deal Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty

Energy markets are also assessing claims of a new US–Venezuela oil agreement. BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong noted that President Trump has said the United States reached a deal that would give it majority control over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves.

Trump has described the arrangement as coming at no cost to US taxpayers and argued that it could strengthen bilateral relations while helping reduce gasoline prices. However, the lack of clarity surrounding the agreement’s legal structure and implementation has left investors uncertain about when, or whether, the potential additional supply would reach global markets.

With geopolitical risks rising and crude flows facing pressure from multiple regions, WTI remains supported above $85.50, while traders continue to closely monitor developments across the Middle East, Russia, and Venezuela.

Gold Slips as Fed Tightening Expectations Offset Safe-Haven Demand

Gold (XAU/USD) retreated toward $4,445 during Tuesday’s Asian session, losing traction as escalating Middle East tensions fueled inflation worries and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again.

Geopolitical risks intensified after renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump warned of a strong response against Tehran following a series of military exchanges, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility for attacks on U.S. military installations in the region. The U.S. military also confirmed strikes on Iranian rocket launch sites on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz. The developments have driven oil prices higher, adding to concerns that inflation could remain elevated.

Markets are also reacting to increasingly hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium, Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to restoring inflation to its target and suggested policymakers are not yet convinced that price pressures are easing sufficiently. Rising energy costs have further reinforced concerns that inflation may remain stubborn.

Rajeev De Mello, Global Macro Portfolio Manager at GAMA Asset Management, noted that investors were caught off guard by the Fed’s more hawkish tone, creating near-term pressure on gold prices.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 65.4% probability of a rate increase at the Fed’s September meeting, a sharp rise from roughly 39.9% before Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.

Gold Faces Pressure as Markets Reprice Fed Outlook

Analysts at TD Securities said gold has eased from recent highs as investors reassess the future path of U.S. monetary policy following Warsh’s comments. The market’s focus has shifted toward the possibility of tighter financial conditions and higher interest rates, which typically weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold.

Hawkish Fed Signals Support the U.S. Dollar

Warsh delivered one of the strongest inflation-focused messages seen in recent months, emphasizing that the Fed still has work to do before inflation is fully under control. He stressed that the central bank’s 2% PCE inflation target remains non-negotiable and indicated that current financial conditions are not restrictive enough to guarantee inflation’s return to target.

The broader policy outlook remains firmly hawkish, with the Fed Sentiment Index holding at elevated levels. This reinforces expectations that the central bank will continue prioritizing price stability, a stance that is likely to support the U.S. Dollar and limit upside potential for gold in the near term.

Technical Analysis: Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical perspective, gold maintains a moderately bullish outlook on the daily timeframe, with prices continuing to trade above both the 100-day Moving Average (MA) at $4,370.48 and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,430.23, which serves as the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands. This positioning suggests that the broader uptrend remains intact despite recent consolidation.

Momentum indicators also support a constructive bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 54, indicating neutral-to-positive momentum. While buying interest remains present, the reading is well below overbought territory, leaving room for further upside if bullish sentiment strengthens.

On the upside, the next major hurdle is located near the upper Bollinger Band at $4,723.68. A sustained move above current levels could bring this resistance zone into focus, although profit-taking activity may emerge as prices approach the area.

On the downside, initial support is seen around the 20-day SMA near $4,430, followed by stronger support at the 100-day MA around $4,370.48. Should selling pressure intensify, the lower Bollinger Band at $4,136.78 could provide a deeper layer of support and help limit downside losses.

Overall, the technical picture remains favorable for gold as long as prices hold above the key moving averages, though traders will continue to monitor Fed expectations and geopolitical developments for the next directional catalyst.

Fundamental Analysis

Gold prices retreated to around $4,610 during Thursday’s Asian trading session, pulling back from a three-month high after the latest US inflation figures largely matched market expectations. The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could still raise interest rates at its next meeting, reducing demand for the non-yielding precious metal.

The latest figures from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 3.7% year-over-year in July, slightly above the market forecast of 3.6% and unchanged from the previous reading.

Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy prices, remained at 3.3% annually, matching economists’ expectations. On a monthly basis, both headline and core PCE inflation increased by 0.2%.

Market participants viewed the report as broadly in line with forecasts, prompting a period of consolidation in gold prices after recent gains. According to analysts, the pullback appears to be driven more by profit-taking than by any major shift in the broader bullish outlook.

Following the inflation release, traders slightly increased their expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Futures markets now indicate roughly a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, up from about 36% before the data was published.

Attention now turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium, where investors will closely watch remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Friday for fresh guidance on the future path of US monetary policy. Any indication that policymakers remain concerned about inflation and willing to keep rates higher for longer could create additional headwinds for gold.

Despite recent volatility in the Treasury market and a notable rally in long-dated US government bonds, analysts at Rabobank note that gold has remained remarkably resilient. The metal has yet to show signs of a deeper selloff, suggesting underlying demand remains intact even as investors reassess interest-rate expectations.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains in a constructive uptrend, with the price continuing to trade above both the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint, reinforcing the bullish market structure.

Momentum indicators also favor buyers. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.64, remaining below the overbought threshold of 70 but indicating strong upward momentum. The reading suggests that bullish sentiment remains dominant, although the rally may be becoming somewhat stretched in the short term.

On the upside, the first key resistance level is located near the upper Bollinger Band at $4,745. A sustained move above this barrier could pave the way for further gains, while failure to break higher may trigger profit-taking and a period of consolidation.

On the downside, initial support is seen around the 100-day SMA at $4,380, with additional support provided by the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint at $4,365. Together, these levels form a significant demand zone that could help contain any near-term pullback. If selling pressure intensifies, the lower Bollinger Band near $3,985 represents the next major support area and a critical longer-term floor for the broader bullish trend.

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The Nasdaq outperformed, semiconductor stocks rebounded, and Nvidia ended a seven-session losing streak. But Tuesday’s move looked less like a broad return to risk-on trading and more like a wave of short covering. The S&P 500 outside the AI complex was largely flat, meaning the headline gains overstated the strength of the broader market.

Key Takeaways

• Falling oil prices provided much-needed relief for equities as lower crude prices helped pull long-term Treasury yields down and reduced pressure on growth-stock valuations.
• The oil retreat reflected improving geopolitical signals, including renewed diplomacy involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, less severe-than-feared sanctions, and continued crude flows despite regional conflict.
• The stock-market rebound remained concentrated in AI-related names, while broader participation was limited and short covering amplified the gains.
• Nvidia now has a more favorable backdrop heading into earnings, but elevated positioning and extremely high expectations mean a solid quarter alone may not be enough.

Oil Drop Gives Markets Room to Breathe

Tuesday’s rally offered investors some relief from two of the biggest pressures weighing on markets recently: oil prices and long-term bond yields. Crude declined, Treasuries gained, the Nasdaq recovered, and the cross-asset environment became noticeably more supportive of growth stocks.

Oil was the key catalyst.

WTI crude fell more than 3% below $82 a barrel, while Brent slipped under $90, as signs of easing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran encouraged traders to unwind some of the risk premium embedded in oil prices.

Iranian media portrayed Pakistan’s army chief’s visit to Tehran positively, while Iran and Oman discussed efforts to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Washington’s latest sanctions fell short of some of the more aggressive measures investors had feared, particularly those that could have placed greater pressure on international buyers and shipping companies.

The situation around Hormuz remains fragile, but oil prices do not need a full diplomatic breakthrough to decline. They simply need the next geopolitical headline to appear less threatening than the previous one.

As crude retreated, traders began taking profits after the market had shifted rapidly from heavily short positioning toward increasingly long exposure. Refined products also started to cool, particularly diesel, which had accumulated an unusually large premium amid Middle East disruptions and attacks on Russian refining infrastructure.

The decline in oil matters because markets have repeatedly followed the same pattern in recent weeks: higher crude, higher long-term yields, weaker growth stocks and increasing pressure on consumers.

The AI sector has been battling that combination almost every day. Once oil prices began falling and bonds rallied, some of that pressure eased.

Treasuries strengthened across the curve, with longer maturities leading the advance. 30-year Treasury yields dropped roughly six basis points on Tuesday and about 10 basis points from Friday, helped by weaker consumer confidence and signs of softer economic momentum.

With markets pricing only modest additional Fed tightening for the remainder of the year, the lower-yield environment offered some relief to richly valued technology stocks.

Treasury Secretary Bessent’s expanded long-duration buyback program is also beginning to influence sentiment at the long end of the curve. It has not eliminated concerns surrounding the US fiscal outlook or placed a firm ceiling on yields, but it has made the one-way short-duration trade somewhat less attractive.

That was enough to give equities some breathing room.

Nvidia Takes Center Stage

The Nasdaq led the rebound, chipmakers recovered, and Nvidia finally broke its seven-session losing streak. Yet the move remained relatively narrow. Excluding the AI complex, the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged, while short covering helped make the major indexes look stronger than the underlying breadth suggested.

That does not make the rally insignificant. Instead, it highlights where investor conviction remains concentrated.

Capital moved back toward AI stocks as the macroeconomic environment became less hostile. Traders who had bet against the sector were also forced to cover positions as lower yields and weaker oil prices improved the backdrop just ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report.

Nvidia is now the market’s key test.

The company is expected to post quarterly revenue of roughly $92 billion, nearly twice the level from a year earlier. But the headline figure is no longer enough. Nvidia is increasingly being treated as the market’s quarterly verdict on whether the enormous AI infrastructure-spending cycle still has enough momentum to justify current valuations.

And that makes expectations increasingly difficult to beat.

Early earnings surprises helped establish the AI narrative. Subsequent results turned that narrative into consensus. Now investors are looking for evidence that the growth story remains almost inevitable.

A strong result combined with upbeat guidance would arrive against a much more supportive backdrop than existed just days ago. Oil is lower, long-term yields have eased, Treasury intervention is more visible, and some excessive positioning has already been reduced.

If Nvidia confirms that hyperscaler demand remains robust, the recent technology selloff could begin to look more like a healthy reset than a fundamental break in the AI trade.

The bigger risk, however, is not necessarily an earnings miss.

Nvidia could deliver a result that would be exceptional for almost any other company, yet still disappoint investors if expectations have already moved beyond conventional definitions of strong performance.

Positioning makes that risk particularly important.

Investors have spent years building around the AI trade, favoring companies viewed as beneficiaries while taking more cautious positions toward businesses considered vulnerable to disruption. Semiconductors and software have effectively become opposing sides of the same broader investment theme.

July’s deleveraging reduced some of that exposure, but it did not eliminate it.

As long as AI investment continues accelerating, elevated positioning can remain justified. The problem arises when too many investors are already positioned in the same direction and the next catalyst delivers something merely good rather than extraordinary.

The Broader Market Still Has Plenty to Worry About

Tuesday’s rally should therefore be viewed as meaningful relief rather than a complete change in market direction.

Investors have not suddenly resolved the Iran conflict, US fiscal concerns or the debate over AI valuations. What changed was that falling oil prices stopped making all three problems appear even worse.

Gold continued moving toward $4,700 an ounce before retreating, Bitcoin briefly climbed above $81,000, and the dollar weakened. That suggests the broader debasement trade remains intact, with investors simultaneously buying technology on lower yields and maintaining exposure to hard assets as protection against fiscal and monetary uncertainty.

That leaves markets heading into Nvidia’s earnings with an unusual combination: lower oil prices, easier financial conditions, persistent fiscal concerns and an AI sector facing enormous expectations.

The path for equities is becoming clearer.

If oil continues falling, long-term yields could become easier for investors to tolerate. If yields remain contained, the discount-rate pressure on technology stocks should ease. And if Nvidia delivers the results investors have come to expect, Tuesday’s relief rally could have room to extend.

For now, oil has removed one of the biggest obstacles facing markets.

The pressure has eased.

Now Wall Street is waiting to see whether Nvidia can keep the momentum going.

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In a Monday interview, Fidelity fund manager George Efstathopoulos said gold investors are becoming less concerned about rising yields and increasingly focused on why yields are climbing. He has reportedly doubled his fund’s allocation to gold, signaling growing institutional interest in the precious metal.

The broader narrative around gold and interest rates may be changing. Rather than simply viewing higher yields as negative for gold, investors are increasingly questioning whether rising rates reflect deeper concerns over US government debt, excessive spending, inflation and declining confidence in policymakers.

The US Treasury yield outlook could therefore become a key driver for gold. If long-term yields continue to rise, the relationship between rates, fiscal sustainability and investor confidence could potentially push gold significantly higher.

Technical indicators suggest that gold’s long-term trend remains bullish, with $4,800-$5,000 emerging as a major resistance zone. However, the latest rally has also left the market technically stretched. RSI and Stochastics are both in overbought territory, while elevated market optimism points to the possibility of a short-term correction.

A pullback of around 5%-7% in gold could be possible, while silver and gold-mining stocks such as GDX could experience deeper corrections of roughly 10%-20%. Such a decline could create another entry opportunity for investors who missed the earlier $3,900-$4,100 buying zone.

Silver remains comparatively resilient, with $61-$63 offering an important support area. Although Stochastics is overbought, RSI suggests the metal could maintain its near-term momentum even if gold temporarily retreats.

Gold-mining stocks have rallied particularly sharply. GDX has gained nearly 50% in roughly one month, a pace that is unlikely to be sustainable indefinitely. While the long-term outlook for miners remains bullish, the recent surge may justify taking partial profits while maintaining core positions.

Investor positioning also warrants attention. Although the gold-stock sentiment index is not yet extremely overbought, its RSI indicates elevated conditions. A further surge toward overbought territory could occur if policymakers fail to address concerns surrounding government spending, debt and rising yields.

Under a bullish scenario, gold could move toward $5,000 while GDX potentially climbs toward $110-$120. The longer-term outlook for miners could be even more ambitious if the current Elliott Wave structure develops as expected.

Overall, the key theme is shifting from simply asking “Will higher rates hurt gold?” to asking “Why are rates rising?” If higher yields increasingly reflect fiscal stress and weakening confidence in US institutions, gold could benefit as investors seek alternative stores of value.

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Gold Climbs Above $4,650 as US Dollar Weakens and Treasury Buybacks Support Demand

• Gold price extends its rally to around $4,670, marking its highest level in more than three months during early Asian trading on Wednesday.
• A weaker US Dollar and declining Treasury yields continue to support demand for the precious metal.
• The Trump administration expanded secondary sanctions on Iran, increasing geopolitical and inflation-related risks.

Gold (XAU/USD) rises toward $4,670, its strongest level since May 14, as the precious metal benefits from broad US Dollar weakness and expectations surrounding the US Treasury’s bond buyback program.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently indicated that Treasury buybacks could exceed $4 billion, following plans to double purchases of longer-dated government securities. The prospect of reduced Treasury supply has pushed longer-term yields lower and encouraged short-covering in the bond market, indirectly supporting gold.

A weaker Greenback makes USD-denominated gold more affordable for international buyers, while lower Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are also gaining attention. The Trump administration has expanded secondary sanctions against entities and countries maintaining business relationships with Iran. Escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran could fuel concerns over energy prices and inflation, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.

However, higher inflation expectations and the possibility of future Fed rate hikes could limit gold’s upside, as higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-interest-bearing bullion.

Markets will closely watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday for fresh clues about the US interest-rate outlook. Any hawkish signals from Fed officials could trigger some profit-taking in gold.

Gold Rally May Be Vulnerable to Macro Risks

TD Securities cautions that the latest gold rally could prove premature. With markets still pricing in potential rate hikes into 2027 and energy prices remaining a significant risk, the bank believes the current move may face challenges before gold can establish another sustained run toward record highs.

Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Remains Bullish but Overbought

Gold maintains a bullish near-term structure on the daily chart, trading comfortably above its 100-day SMA and the Bollinger middle band. The price is now approaching the upper portion of the Bollinger range, while the 14-day RSI near 73 indicates overbought conditions.

On the downside, initial support is located around $4,380, corresponding to the 100-day SMA, followed by the Bollinger middle band near $4,340. A deeper correction could bring the lower Bollinger band around $3,955 into focus.

To the upside, $4,725 represents the key resistance level near the upper Bollinger band. A sustained daily close above this area could reinforce the bullish trend and expose gold to further gains. Conversely, failure to break above $4,725 may trigger consolidation or a pullback as overbought conditions ease.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Above $69 as Markets Await US PCE Inflation Data

• Silver price (XAG/USD) rises nearly 1% to around $69.40, supported by falling oil prices and easing concerns over energy supply disruptions.
• Iran and Oman have resumed discussions aimed at establishing a temporary maritime corridor to facilitate safer navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Investors turn their attention to the US July PCE inflation report and the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) advances toward $69.40 during Wednesday’s Asian session, extending its recovery as crude oil prices decline. The move comes amid growing optimism that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nearly one-fifth of global energy supplies, could gradually resume.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi reportedly discussed an interim framework designed to restore safe maritime traffic through the strategic waterway. The development has reduced concerns over a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

Lower oil prices could ease inflationary pressures and reduce expectations for aggressive interest-rate hikes from major central banks. This environment tends to benefit non-yielding assets such as silver.

Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July, due at 12:30 GMT. Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to remain at 3.3% YoY, while monthly growth is forecast at 0.2%, up from 0.1% in June.

The Jackson Hole Symposium will also be a major market catalyst this week, with investors looking for further signals about the Fed’s approach to inflation and interest rates.

Jackson Hole Could Shape the Fed Rate Outlook

TD Securities views Friday’s Jackson Hole event as the week’s key macroeconomic risk. Investors are expected to focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s prepared remarks for clearer guidance on the central bank’s inflation mandate.

The bank expects the Fed to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, although it notes that persistently elevated inflation and a stabilized labor market could shift policymakers’ attention further toward price stability.

If the Federal Reserve makes a policy move this year, TD Securities believes a rate hike could be more likely than a rate cut, potentially limiting silver’s upside.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Maintains Bullish Momentum

On the daily chart, XAG/USD trades around $69.17, remaining comfortably above its 20-day EMA at $65.12. The sustained distance above this dynamic support level keeps the short-term outlook bullish.

The 14-day RSI stands at 64.65, indicating positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory. This suggests that buyers retain control without the market showing clear signs of exhaustion.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA around $65.12 represents the first major support level. A sustained break below it could weaken the near-term bullish structure.

To the upside, the June 17 high at $71.56 is the key resistance level. A decisive break above this barrier could reinforce the bullish trend and open the way toward higher levels.

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Gold and silver extended their recent gains on Friday as a weaker US Dollar (USD), elevated market volatility, and renewed safe-haven demand supported precious metals. Gold (XAU/USD) climbed to around $4,544 during the Asian session, reaching its highest level since early June, while Silver (XAG/USD) approached $69 per troy ounce after gaining nearly 6% this week.

Gold Holds Above $4,500 as USD Weakness Supports Buyers

Gold continued its upward momentum after breaking above the technically important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The precious metal reached approximately $4,544, marking its strongest level since early June and reinforcing the broader bullish outlook.

The primary driver behind the latest Gold rally has been continued weakness in the USD, which remains close to a three-month low. Recent US inflation data showed signs of easing price pressures, leading investors to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Because Gold does not generate interest income, expectations for higher US interest rates typically reduce its appeal. Conversely, fading expectations for tighter monetary policy can support demand for the precious metal by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

However, rising crude oil prices could complicate the outlook. Higher energy prices may reignite inflation concerns and encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer. At the same time, escalating tensions between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, together with renewed activity by Iran-backed Houthi forces targeting oil tankers, have increased concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies.

Oil prices subsequently advanced to a three-week high, helping keep US Treasury yields elevated and potentially limiting the downside in the USD.

Fed Rate Hike Expectations Could Cap Gold’s Upside

The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes offered some support for the US Dollar. Policymakers indicated that interest rates could need to rise in the near term unless inflation continues to move lower.

Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in approximately a 68% probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year. If these expectations strengthen, higher Treasury yields and a firmer USD could create headwinds for Gold.

Geopolitical risks are also influencing currency markets. US President Donald Trump said Washington would pursue a major economic campaign against Iran and warned of penalties for countries helping Tehran circumvent sanctions or maintain commercial ties with Iran. Vice President JD Vance likewise highlighted economic pressure as a key tool for influencing Tehran.

Such developments could increase demand for the USD as a traditional safe-haven currency, potentially limiting further gains in Gold.

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Targets $4,687

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains in a bullish structure after establishing itself above the 200-day SMA. Buyers are now looking for a sustained move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline, located around $4,529.

The MACD remains in positive territory, supporting the prevailing bullish momentum. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 67.70, approaching overbought territory and suggesting that the recent advance could be becoming stretched.

A sustained breakout above $4,529 could expose the next resistance near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at approximately $4,687. A further extension could bring the cycle high around $4,889 into focus.

On the downside, initial support is located near $4,529, followed by the 200-day SMA around $4,514 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $4,417. Additional support levels can be found around $4,306, $4,168, and the structural low near $3,946.

Silver Approaches $69 as Volatility Drives Safe-Haven Demand

Silver (XAG/USD) also extended its advance for a third consecutive session, trading around $68.70 per troy ounce during Friday’s Asian session. The metal has gained nearly 6% over the week as heightened volatility across currency and bond markets encouraged investors to increase exposure to precious metals.

The initial boost came after the US Treasury Department announced plans to at least double its long-term debt buyback operations. The announcement initially pushed Treasury yields and the USD lower, creating a supportive environment for non-yielding assets such as Silver.

Although US Treasury yields later recovered much of their decline, continued weakness in the dollar allowed Silver to maintain its bullish momentum.

Market uncertainty surrounding the Treasury’s debt-management strategy has also contributed to demand for precious metals. While the initial fall in longer-term yields has largely reversed, persistent USD weakness indicates that investors remain cautious about the implications of the buyback program and the broader US fiscal outlook.

Rising Oil Prices Create Risks for Silver

Despite the bullish near-term outlook, Silver could face resistance if higher energy prices revive inflation concerns.

Crude oil prices have risen amid escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran over the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Stalled negotiations and stronger US economic pressure on Iran have increased concerns about potential disruptions to Iranian oil exports and global energy supplies.

The US is reportedly preparing additional economic measures targeting Iran’s banking sector, shipping networks, cash transfers, and smuggling operations. The objective is to intensify pressure on Tehran and encourage negotiations over its nuclear program and regional activities.

Higher oil prices could increase inflation expectations and reduce the likelihood of rapid monetary easing. If central banks respond by maintaining or raising interest rates, higher yields could weigh on non-yielding assets such as Gold and Silver.

Gold and Silver Outlook

Overall, both Gold and Silver retain a constructive near-term outlook as USD weakness, elevated financial-market volatility, and safe-haven demand continue to support precious metals.

Gold’s ability to remain above its 200-day SMA keeps the broader bullish structure intact, while a sustained break above $4,529 could pave the way toward $4,687 and potentially $4,889.

Silver is approaching the psychologically important $69 level after a strong weekly rally. However, rising oil prices, renewed inflation risks, and expectations for higher interest rates could limit further upside and increase volatility.

For both precious metals, the next major directional catalyst is likely to come from the interaction between USD performance, Federal Reserve rate expectations, Treasury yields, and developments surrounding US-Iran tensions.

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• Gold extends its decline for a second straight day on Friday.
• Easing expectations for a Fed rate hike may help cushion further downside in the non-yielding precious metal.
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions could support the safe-haven US Dollar, potentially limiting gains in bullion.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher from around $4,300 heading into the European session on Friday, but remains in negative territory for a second consecutive day. The precious metal is attempting to stabilize after pulling back from $4,450, its highest level since June 5, reached the previous day. However, a mixed fundamental backdrop suggests caution before assuming the correction will extend.

US inflation data has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may remain patient with interest rates. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat in July, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase, while annual PPI inflation eased sharply to 4.7% from 5.5% in June and came in below the 4.9% forecast. Combined with Wednesday’s softer Consumer Price Index (CPI), the data points to moderating inflation and has kept the US Dollar under pressure, providing some support for non-yielding Gold.

Market expectations for Fed policy have shifted noticeably. The probability of a September rate hike has fallen to around 40%, compared with 72% at the end of July, while futures now price just over a 65% chance of a rate hike by year-end, down from nearly 85% a week earlier. Recent comments from Fed officials have also highlighted divisions over the appropriate policy path. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized patience, arguing that recent price increases may be temporary, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack maintained that inflation remains too high and could require additional rate increases.

Geopolitical tensions, however, could provide support for the safe-haven US Dollar and limit Gold’s upside. US officials have issued strong warnings toward Iran, while Tehran has vowed to make any potential conflict costly. Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are adding to the war-risk premium, with the US claiming control over the strategic waterway and Iran threatening to keep it closed until its demands are met. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthis have intensified attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict.

Against this backdrop, Gold’s downside appears relatively limited, but the mixed fundamental picture makes aggressive directional bets risky. XAU/USD has so far stalled its broader monthly advance from around the psychological $4,000 level. Traders will now focus on upcoming US Retail Sales and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for fresh clues on the economic and monetary-policy outlook.

XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart – Technical Analysis

Gold remains above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, while a cluster of Fibonacci support levels suggests that the broader bullish trend remains intact despite the recent correction. However, momentum has weakened. The MACD is trading below both zero and its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to around 42, indicating that buying pressure is losing strength.

On the downside, the first key support is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,285, based on the latest move higher from the August swing low. A break below this level could expose the 50.0% retracement near $4,234, followed by the 61.8% level around $4,184. The 200-period EMA also provides additional support in this area.

On the upside, immediate resistance stands at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $4,347. Beyond that, Gold faces a major barrier around the $4,448.40 cycle high. A sustained break above this level would reinforce the bullish outlook and potentially open the door to further gains.

• Silver prices remain range-bound near $65.40 as investors await the release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) figures.
• Softer-than-expected US inflation readings for July have prompted markets to scale back expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
• Both headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures in the United States eased in line with forecasts.

Silver (XAG/USD) traded within a narrow range around $65.40 during Thursday’s Asian session, with investors awaiting fresh direction from upcoming US economic data. While price action remained subdued, easing inflationary pressures in the United States have continued to support the metal’s broader outlook.

Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 3.4% year-over-year in July from 3.5% in June. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also eased to 2.5% from 2.6%, matching market expectations.

The softer inflation readings have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may refrain from raising interest rates further in the near term. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its September meeting has climbed to nearly 60%, compared with just 30.4% a month earlier.

A less aggressive monetary policy outlook tends to benefit non-yielding assets such as Silver, as lower interest rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.

Market participants now turn their attention to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for July, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, which could provide additional clues about the inflation trend and the Fed’s policy path.

Silver Technical Analysis

Silver continues to consolidate around $65.40 while maintaining a positive technical structure above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61.66. Holding above this key short-term trend indicator suggests that buying interest remains intact despite the recent pause in upward momentum.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61.17, remaining in bullish territory while still below overbought levels, indicating there is room for further gains if buying pressure strengthens.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA at $61.66 serves as immediate support and remains the key level to watch. A decisive break below this area could trigger a deeper correction. On the upside, a breakout above the current consolidation zone and resistance at $66.59 could pave the way for a move toward the June 16 peak near $71.19.

• WTI could extend its gains as President Trump’s latest compensation demands on Tehran reduce expectations for a near-term peace deal.
• Washington is reportedly leaning toward tougher economic sanctions rather than military intervention to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Negotiations between Oman and Iran over restoring access to the key shipping corridor remain at a standstill while both sides await progress on a broader agreement with the US.

WTI crude oil extends its rally after surging more than 6.5% in the previous session, trading near $81.40 during Tuesday’s Asian session. Oil prices remain supported as uncertainty deepens over prospects for a US-Iran agreement aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

Expectations for a quick resolution have faded after US President Donald Trump unveiled a new set of demands for Tehran, including compensation for victims of regional conflicts. The announcement followed Iran’s insistence on receiving reparations as part of any agreement to end the war, raising concerns that supply disruptions could persist for longer than previously anticipated.

Instead of pursuing additional military action to reopen the crucial shipping corridor, the US administration appears to favor escalating economic sanctions on Iran. At the same time, talks between Iran and Oman regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked, with Tehran linking progress to the achievement of a broader peace deal with Washington.

Additional support for crude prices comes from growing skepticism over a near-term diplomatic breakthrough. Analysts at TD Securities noted that a resolution to tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to achieve, describing a potential “Hormuz deal” as still out of reach. The bank added that persistent geopolitical risks and the threat of disruptions at major energy transit routes continue to provide a favorable backdrop for oil prices and trend-following market participants.

• Gold extends its advance for a third consecutive session, reaching its highest level in more than two months on Tuesday.
• Easing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes continue to support demand for the non-yielding precious metal.
• Investors may remain cautious ahead of new geopolitical developments and the release of the latest US inflation data.

Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward momentum for a third straight session on Tuesday, marking gains in five of the past six trading days and reaching its highest level since early June above the $4,400 threshold during Asian trading. The rally has been supported by last Friday’s weaker-than-expected US employment data, which signaled a softening labor market and reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy further, boosting demand for the non-yielding precious metal.

Despite the advance, concerns over inflation remain in focus as oil prices stay volatile amid the ongoing Iran conflict. These inflation risks have prevented markets from fully dismissing the possibility of additional Fed rate hikes, helping the US Dollar maintain recent gains and limiting Gold’s upside potential. Adding to geopolitical uncertainty, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s request for compensation related to war damages and instead blamed Tehran for casualties across the region.

Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated after Iran ruled out renewed negotiations with Trump until after his term ends in January 2029, reducing hopes for a near-term resolution and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait caused by Houthi naval actions continue to constrain shipping activity, contributing to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns. Markets still anticipate at least one Federal Reserve rate increase in 2026.

These factors continue to support higher US Treasury yields and provide underlying strength to the US Dollar, suggesting caution for traders expecting Gold’s rally to extend aggressively in the short term. Market participants are also likely to focus on upcoming US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index due Wednesday and the Producer Price Index scheduled for Thursday. The reports could offer important clues about the Fed’s policy outlook and shape the next move in both the Dollar and Gold markets.

Technical Analysis

A decisive intraday move above both the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June decline indicates that bullish momentum remains intact. This strengthens the case for a continued advance toward the 200-day SMA around $4,498, with further upside targets at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $4,515 and the 78.6% retracement level around $4,669.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 50% retracement level near $4,406, followed closely by the 100-day SMA around $4,389. A deeper pullback could expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at roughly $4,297, while stronger support emerges near the 23.6% retracement around $4,162. Beyond that, the major downside reference remains the cycle low near $3,945.

• WTI crude has experienced a significant pullback, sliding from above $92 a barrel in late July to below $76. Despite the sharp retreat, the futures curve has yet to signal a complete bearish reversal, as strong backwardation persists, indicating that supply-related risks are still being priced into the market.
• At the same time, US market fundamentals remain uneven rather than outright weak. Conflicting trends in demand and inventory data continue to paint a mixed picture, limiting conviction behind a sustained bearish outlook.
• For now, the most probable outcome is continued volatility within a $77–$88 trading range. A lasting improvement in shipping conditions and smoother supply flows could drag WTI toward the $68–$75 zone. On the other hand, fresh disruptions to global energy transport routes or supply chains could revive bullish sentiment and drive prices back toward the $92–$105 range.

American benchmark crude prices have dropped sharply as renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement reduced geopolitical risk premiums. However, a strongly backwardated futures curve, tight inventories at Cushing, and subdued speculative positioning suggest the recent sell-off may be overextended.

WTI has weakened after Washington paused additional military action and discussions on shipping security resumed. Even so, both physical and derivatives markets continue to signal supply tightness, leaving the market exposed to another sharp rebound.

WTI’s decline looks more like a correction than a full normalization

WTI fell below $76 per barrel on Tuesday, marking a nearly 20% decline from its late-July peak above $92. The move followed repeated swings in sentiment driven by reports of progress and setbacks in negotiations involving the US and Iran.

While the retreat reflects a reduction in geopolitical risk premiums, it does not necessarily indicate that the underlying supply disruptions have been resolved. Markets have repeatedly priced in expectations of a settlement, only to see tensions, attacks, or shipping restrictions re-emerge.

Until tanker movements, insurance availability, and export flows improve consistently over an extended period, political statements alone are unlikely to confirm a lasting normalization.

The futures curve suggests caution toward the sell-off

The WTI futures curve remained deeply backwardated in late July. The front-month contract traded at $85.27, compared with $82.25 for the second-month contract and $70.41 for the twelfth-month contract. This left the M1–M2 spread at $3.02 per barrel and the M1–M12 spread close to $15.

Such pronounced backwardation indicates that buyers continue to pay a significant premium for immediate supply relative to oil delivered further into the future. Although part of that premium reflects geopolitical uncertainty, the curve’s shape does not align with expectations of an imminent supply surplus. It also provides positive roll yield for long positions, which could help prevent bearish momentum from becoming entrenched.

As a result, the curve points to a two-track outlook: near-term prices remain highly sensitive to developments in US-Iran relations, while longer-dated contracts are already pricing in a gradual return to more normal market conditions.

EIA data suggest limited inventory cushions rather than a true supply shortage

According to the latest EIA report, US commercial crude inventories increased by 2 million barrels to 411.7 million barrels in the week ending July 17. Despite the build, stockpiles remained about 6% below the five-year seasonal average. Meanwhile, inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined by 674,000 barrels to 19.4 million barrels, leaving them more than 10 million barrels below the five-year norm.

Refined product inventories also remained relatively tight. Gasoline stocks were 7% below their five-year average, while distillate inventories were 10% below average, even after registering weekly increases. Refinery utilization stayed elevated at 96.1%, and total petroleum demand rebounded by just over 1 million barrels per day from the previous week.

The data do not present a uniformly bullish picture, as crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all posted gains during the reporting period. However, inventory buffers remain thin in absolute terms, particularly at Cushing. As a result, any renewed supply disruption could have a more immediate impact on prompt crude prices than it would in a market with more comfortable stock levels.

US shale production is responding slowly, not flooding the market

US crude output fell by 63,000 barrels per day to 13.798 million barrels per day in the week ending July 17. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes reported 450 active oil rigs on July 24, down two from the previous week but still up ten from a month earlier and 38 above the same period in 2025.

The signal from shale activity remains mixed. Drilling has not deteriorated significantly, yet the latest decline in production does not point to an imminent surge in supply capable of offsetting a renewed disruption in Gulf energy flows. Moreover, changes in rig activity typically influence production with a considerable lag, making rig counts more relevant to the medium-term outlook than to short-term supply risks.

CFTC positioning indicates potential for another sharp market move

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that non-commercial net long positions in WTI increased by nearly 38,500 contracts to roughly 120,100 contracts in the week ending July 28. The recovery was driven largely by short covering, with speculative short positions falling by about 33,600 contracts, while long positions increased by only around 4,800 contracts.

Despite the rebound, speculative positioning remains relatively light by historical standards. Net long exposure sits near the 11th percentile of the past three years, while overall speculative exposure, at roughly 6.5%, is around the 13th percentile. In other words, traders are no longer heavily positioned for a major collapse in prices, but bullish positioning is far from crowded.

This leaves room for significant volatility in either direction. A credible and lasting peace agreement could spark another wave of selling, while a renewed breakdown in negotiations could trigger both fresh short covering and new long buying, potentially accelerating any upside move in WTI prices.

WTI outlook: $77–$88 remains the most plausible near-term trading range

Current market conditions support a range-bound outlook rather than a firm directional target. Geopolitical developments continue to dominate short-term price action, with headlines surrounding US-Iran negotiations capable of moving front-month WTI contracts by several dollars before changes in inventories or production data have a meaningful impact.

At the same time, the structure of the futures curve argues against interpreting every positive diplomatic development as evidence of a lasting supply surplus. Deep backwardation continues to signal tight near-term market conditions and ongoing concerns about physical availability.

As a result, the most credible base-case scenario remains a trading range between $77 and $88 per barrel. A sustained improvement in shipping security, export flows, and regional stability could eventually push prices lower toward the $68–$75 area. However, until such normalization is clearly reflected in physical market indicators, downside potential may remain limited.

Conversely, any renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions, or supply-chain interruptions could quickly revive the risk premium, potentially triggering a sharp rebound in WTI as traders reprice near-term supply risks. The combination of tight inventories, pronounced backwardation, and relatively light speculative positioning means the market remains vulnerable to significant upside volatility despite the recent correction.

Bottom line

WTI prices around $80 per barrel no longer reflect the extreme risk premium that dominated the market during the most recent geopolitical escalation. However, market conditions are still far from fully normalized. Deep backwardation in the futures curve, low inventory levels at Cushing, and relatively light speculative positioning all indicate that downside moves driven by positive peace developments may be more gradual than any upside reaction triggered by renewed supply disruptions.

For the time being, the most likely scenario remains a volatile trading range between $77 and $88 per barrel. A sustained move below that band would likely require clear and verifiable evidence that Gulf shipping routes, insurance conditions, and export flows have returned to normal. Conversely, a breakout above the range would become increasingly probable if negotiations break down and physical supply conditions deteriorate once again.

In short, while geopolitical risk premiums have eased, the underlying market structure continues to reflect supply tightness, leaving WTI vulnerable to sharp upward repricing should disruptions re-emerge.

Silver advanced as lower oil prices followed a partial agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, helping to ease inflationary pressures. Softer-than-expected US ADP private employment data further boosted precious metals, reinforcing expectations of a more accommodative interest-rate outlook. Meanwhile, a positive 14-day RSI and a supportive Fed Sentiment Index continued to indicate solid and sustained bullish momentum for silver.

Silver (XAG/USD) extended its rally for a fourth straight session, trading near $62.20 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session. The precious metal continued to benefit from improving market sentiment after an agreement to partially restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz helped drive oil prices lower, easing concerns about inflationary pressures and the future path of interest rates.

The development follows a deal between Iran and Oman to establish a temporary maritime corridor through the key energy route, raising expectations for stronger Middle Eastern oil exports. A joint statement outlining the arrangement is reportedly nearing completion. Although the shipping channel is expected to remain operational for two to four months, Iranian officials emphasized that the measure should not be viewed as a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil market structure points to speculation-driven moves

Analysts at TD Securities argue that recent swings in oil prices appear to be driven more by speculative positioning than by any meaningful change in supply-demand fundamentals. They note that oil timespreads have remained relatively strong, indicating that traders reacting to headlines are largely behind the recent volatility rather than a loosening of physical market conditions. According to the firm, robust timespreads continue to signal a fundamentally tight crude market despite heightened geopolitical risks and speculative trading activity.

At the same time, weaker US labor market data added another layer of support for precious metals. ADP data released Wednesday showed private-sector employment increased by only 44,000 jobs in July, down sharply from 98,000 in June and below expectations of 70,000. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming US labor indicators, including Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, for further clues on the economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy direction.

Fed’s Cook highlights inflation risks while leaving door open for future rate hikes

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered remarks that carried a moderately hawkish tone, earning a score of 7.2/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, slightly above the historical average of 6.5/10. Her comments acknowledged the resilience of the US economy and labor market but emphasized that inflation risks remain a greater concern than employment weakness. Cook reiterated the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability while stressing that additional rate hikes would only be considered if progress on disinflation stalls.

The speech was generally supportive of the US Dollar and reflected a cautious stance toward risk-sensitive assets. However, it stopped short of signaling any immediate tightening measures, leaving policymakers data-dependent.

Meanwhile, the FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped 1.93 points to 140.92, suggesting a modest reduction in perceived hawkishness after the speech. Even so, the index remains comfortably above the neutral 100 level, indicating that overall Fed communication continues to lean firmly toward a restrictive policy stance despite the slight easing in tightening expectations.

Technical Analysis: Silver maintains bullish momentum

Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $62.20 and continues to display a constructive near-term outlook. The metal remains above its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $59.76, reflecting ongoing bullish momentum, although the 50-day EMA at $62.69 continues to act as immediate resistance. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56.81, reinforcing the view that buying pressure remains intact without entering overbought territory.

A decisive daily close above the 50-day EMA at $62.69 could strengthen bullish momentum and pave the way for a move toward the next major resistance zones at $90.03 and $96.62, although those targets remain considerably higher than current market levels. On the downside, initial support is located at the nine-day EMA of $59.76, followed by a stronger support area around $55.63. Overall, the technical backdrop remains tilted to the upside as long as Silver holds above its short-term moving average.

Gold (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day’s momentum, extending its rally for a second consecutive session to reach a near two-week high around $4,141 during Wednesday’s Asian trading.

Fundamental Analysis

Optimism over a diplomatic breakthrough in the five-month US-Iran conflict continues to support market sentiment, despite lingering uncertainty. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington could finalize an agreement with Tehran as early as Wednesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease tensions. Separately, Axios reported, citing sources, that the US, Iran, and Oman are close to reaching an interim deal to restore access to the key shipping route. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s decision to raise oil production starting in September has eased supply concerns, sending crude prices to their lowest level since June 13. Softer oil prices have reduced inflation fears and weakened expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, weighing on the US Dollar while boosting demand for non-yielding Gold.

Even so, markets continue to expect the Fed could still raise interest rates before year-end as the US labor market shows signs of resilience. Tuesday’s JOLTS report revealed job openings slipped slightly to 7.36 million but remained above year-ago levels, indicating underlying labor market strength. Additionally, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson reiterated support for keeping monetary policy restrictive to contain inflation. Their comments may limit further downside in the US Dollar ahead of Friday’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Before then, investors will focus on Wednesday’s US economic releases, including the ADP private employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for fresh clues on the economy and the Fed’s policy path. At the same time, any new developments surrounding the Middle East conflict could influence both the US Dollar and Gold. Overall, the current fundamental backdrop continues to favor Gold, leaving XAU/USD well-positioned for additional near-term gains.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, Gold’s decisive move above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart reinforces the bullish outlook. Momentum indicators continue to favor buyers, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding near 65, reflecting solid upside momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in positive territory, suggesting bullish control remains intact in the near term.

That said, the rally may begin to encounter resistance above the $4,130 region, as increasingly stretched momentum indicators could limit further upside if buying pressure starts to ease. On the downside, initial support is located around the 200-period EMA near $4,115. A sustained break below this level could trigger a deeper pullback toward the daily low around $4,065, followed by the $4,043–$4,042 support zone, the $4,020 level, and ultimately the key psychological threshold at $4,000.

Gold remains under pressure as oil prices rebound after the US intercepted Iranian missiles, reigniting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fueling inflation worries. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision remains unusually elevated, with some market participants still anticipating additional rate hikes. Traders currently assign a 76.6% probability to a September rate increase, supporting expectations for higher borrowing costs and weighing on bullion demand.

Gold prices (XAU/USD) remain under pressure for a second consecutive session, hovering near $4,020 per ounce during Wednesday’s Asian trading. The precious metal is weighed down by a rebound in oil prices after renewed conflict in the Middle East reignited geopolitical concerns, prompting investors to reassess inflation risks and the outlook for interest rates.

Tensions escalated after Iran launched several ballistic missiles at a US military base in Jordan at around 5:45 p.m. ET, targeting American forces stationed in the region. US military officials reported that all missiles fired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were successfully intercepted, according to official statements and released footage. The attack is widely viewed as retaliation for recent US operations against Iranian naval assets.

Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, with policymakers broadly expected to keep interest rates unchanged. However, uncertainty remains elevated despite persistent pressure from US President Donald Trump for lower borrowing costs. Markets currently assign a 30.5% probability to an unexpected rate hike at this meeting, an unusually high level of uncertainty ahead of a Fed decision. Looking beyond this week, traders are pricing in a 76.6% chance of a rate increase in September, reinforcing expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer and limiting the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

Silver prices could find support as renewed US-Iran peace negotiations ease oil prices and reduce concerns over further interest-rate hikes. Former US President Donald Trump cautioned that military action against Iran could resume if diplomatic efforts fail. Meanwhile, markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at this week’s meeting, with any potential rate increase likely postponed until September.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) retreated during Tuesday’s Asian session after posting gains of nearly 0.5% in the previous trading day, slipping toward the $57.50-per-ounce area. Despite the decline, the precious metal could find support as easing tensions between the United States and Iran continue to weigh on oil prices, helping to reduce inflation concerns and dampen expectations for further interest-rate increases.

Market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump stated that Washington is engaged in constructive discussions with Iran aimed at resolving the Middle East conflict. However, he warned that military operations could resume if diplomatic efforts fail. His comments followed a pause in US airstrikes late last week after nearly two weeks of conflict, while Iran also halted retaliatory attacks on US military facilities in neighboring countries.

The United States has now gone three consecutive days without launching new strikes after suspending its 13-night military campaign. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied that direct negotiations with Washington are underway, emphasizing that its ongoing discussions are limited to Oman and focus on the future of the Strait of Hormuz.

Investors are now closely watching this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. The Fed is broadly expected to leave interest rates unchanged, although persistent inflation pressures have prompted a small group of traders to consider the possibility of an immediate hike. Nevertheless, the dominant market view remains that any further tightening would more likely be postponed until September.

Gold (XAU/USD) falls below the $4,050 mark during Tuesday’s Asian trading session, erasing the bullish gap formed at the start of the week. Ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for the US Dollar, creating headwinds for the precious metal. However, further losses may be limited as traders remain cautious and refrain from taking aggressive USD positions ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC policy decision.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its decline after failing to sustain momentum above the $4,100 level in the previous session, slipping below $4,050 during Tuesday’s Asian trading hours. Despite the weakness, further downside may be restrained as US Dollar buyers remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s closely watched two-day FOMC meeting. Investors are looking for fresh guidance on the Fed’s future policy direction, which is expected to influence USD demand and determine the next major move for the non-yielding precious metal.

Ahead of the Fed decision, markets scaled back expectations of further rate hikes as renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran raised hopes of ending a conflict that has lasted for five months. The optimism contributed to a sharp decline in oil prices overnight and helped ease inflation concerns. The US recently suspended its military strikes on Iran after nearly two weeks of attacks, while President Donald Trump stated on Monday that discussions with Tehran were progressing positively and that a potential resolution remained possible. These developments fueled expectations that both sides could return to negotiations, potentially restoring stability to Middle Eastern energy supplies.

Nevertheless, geopolitical risks remain elevated. Trump cautioned that military action could resume if diplomatic efforts fail. At the same time, reports of drone attacks in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq tempered market optimism. Concerns over global energy supply disruptions continue to support both crude oil prices and the safe-haven US Dollar. Attention has also shifted to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi forces announced a maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia and launched attacks on oil infrastructure along the Red Sea coast. Meanwhile, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.

Overall, the fundamental environment continues to favor the US Dollar, reinforcing the possibility of additional losses in Gold. However, traders are likely to avoid making large directional bets before Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. As a result, confirmation through sustained selling pressure and a decisive break below the key $4,000 psychological level may be needed before stronger bearish positions emerge in the XAU/USD market.

Daily chart of XAU/USD

Gold’s bearish technical outlook supports the potential for further downside; a decisive break below $4,000 remains in focus

Following its recent move below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), Gold’s sideways trading pattern since June 19 can still be viewed as a bearish consolidation. Technical indicators offer mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly below the neutral 50 level, hovering around 45, reflecting weak buying momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to rise in positive territory, suggesting that any near-term recovery is likely corrective rather than the start of a broader uptrend, provided Gold remains below its long-term average.

Despite occasional rebounds, the precious metal remains susceptible to additional losses unless buyers successfully defend support near the psychologically important $4,000 level. On the upside, resistance is seen at the upper end of the current trading range around $4,200. A daily close above this threshold would be required to weaken the prevailing bearish outlook and pave the way for a more sustained rally toward the 200-day SMA at $4,493.65.

• Silver draws fresh buying interest on Thursday after a modest pullback, although bullish momentum remains limited.
• The overall technical picture continues to support buyers, suggesting the potential for additional gains in the near term.
• However, a sustained move below the $59.00 level would be required to invalidate the broader positive outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) found renewed buying interest around the $58.25–$58.20 area during Thursday’s Asian trading session, helping to halt the previous day’s mild retreat from the $61.00 region, its highest level in more than two weeks. Despite the rebound, the precious metal has struggled to build momentum and is currently trading near the mid-$59.00s, down roughly 0.40% on the day.

The recent breakout above the key $59.00 confluence zone—where the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the June 17 peak—has reinforced the bullish outlook for silver. Technical indicators remain supportive, with the RSI holding at 61.21 in positive territory and the MACD histogram maintaining a modest bullish bias. Together, these signals suggest that the broader upward momentum remains intact, supporting the possibility of additional gains in the near term.

On the upside, the first notable hurdle is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $61.31. A break above this area could pave the way toward the 50.0% retracement at $63.28, followed by the 61.8% level at $65.25. Further strength may bring the 78.6% retracement barrier near $68.05 into focus. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $58.99 region, where the 100-period SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement converge. A more pronounced correction could then target the key structural support area around $54.94.

Technical Analysis

Gold finds it difficult to attract strong buying interest during Thursday’s Asian trading session. Persistent inflation concerns continue to support expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, weighing on the precious metal. However, ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar helps cushion the downside and prevents a sharper decline in gold prices.

Gold Holds Above $4,100 Despite Rising Rate-Hike Expectations

Gold (XAU/USD) remained above the $4,100 level during Thursday’s Asian session, stabilizing after retreating slightly from a two-week high reached earlier this week. The precious metal is facing pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields, as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran have pushed oil prices to their highest level since June, fueling concerns about inflation and strengthening expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The geopolitical conflict continues to intensify, with the U.S. and Iran exchanging strikes for a twelfth consecutive night. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi forces have announced a blockade of a key Red Sea shipping route, adding to disruptions in global energy supply chains. Combined with reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, these developments have driven crude oil prices higher and increased fears that energy-driven inflation could force central banks to maintain a more hawkish policy stance.

Market participants are now assigning a high probability to at least one Fed rate hike before year-end, supporting elevated Treasury yields and weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold. Nevertheless, ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar has provided some support for bullion, helping limit downside pressure and keeping the broader short-term uptrend intact.

Analysts note that investors have become increasingly aggressive in pricing future Fed tightening, reinforcing the recent rise in real yields and broader bond market weakness. As a result, gold is caught between safe-haven demand stemming from geopolitical uncertainty and the negative impact of higher interest rate expectations.

Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data and the European Central Bank’s policy decision for fresh market direction. Any further escalation in the Middle East conflict is also likely to remain a key driver of gold price movements in the near term.

Technical Analysis

Gold’s recent rally appears to be losing momentum near the critical $4,155–$4,165 resistance zone, where the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart converges with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June decline. This area has emerged as an important technical hurdle that bulls must overcome to sustain the upward move.

Despite the resistance, momentum indicators remain constructive. The RSI is holding around 63, indicating continued buying interest without entering overbought territory, while the MACD remains in positive territory, suggesting that bullish momentum is still intact. However, strong overhead supply is preventing buyers from gaining full control.

A decisive breakout above the $4,155–$4,165 region would strengthen the bullish outlook and could pave the way for a move toward the next major resistance near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around $4,304. Such a development would signal renewed upside momentum and attract additional buying interest.

On the downside, the key support level remains around $3,941, which serves as the primary Fibonacci anchor for the current recovery. If gold experiences a deeper correction, this zone could attract fresh demand and provide a foundation for a more sustainable advance in the longer term.

Overall, gold remains in a cautiously bullish technical structure, but a clear break above the $4,165 resistance area is needed to confirm the next leg higher. Until then, traders may continue to see consolidation within the current range.

• President Trump warned that any Houthi attempts to disrupt critical Saudi oil export routes would be met with retaliatory military action.
• An attack on a Kuwaiti oil tanker has underscored the persistent security risks facing key shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf.
• Strikes targeting Black Sea export terminals threaten the main corridor responsible for transporting most of Kazakhstan’s crude oil exports.

WTI crude oil extended its rally for a second straight session, trading near $84.60 per barrel during Wednesday’s Asian session as growing supply concerns across several major export routes supported prices. The latest gains reflect rising geopolitical risks that now extend beyond the Middle East, raising fears of potential disruptions to global energy flows.

In the United States, President Donald Trump downplayed the prospects of near-term negotiations with Iran and warned that further military action remains possible. He also pledged a swift response if Iran-backed Houthi forces follow through on threats to target commercial vessels operating in the Red Sea.

The Red Sea has become an increasingly important export route for Saudi Arabia during the regional conflict. By diverting part of its crude shipments through pipelines to Red Sea ports, the kingdom has reduced its dependence on the strategically sensitive Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, maritime security concerns remain elevated, highlighted by a recent attack on a Kuwaiti tanker transporting oil products through the Gulf region.

Meanwhile, supply risks are not limited to the Middle East. Market participants are also watching repeated drone strikes targeting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast. The facility serves as a crucial export gateway for Kazakhstan, handling most of the country’s crude oil shipments to international markets, making any disruption a potential threat to global supply.