The United States came close to becoming a net crude exporter last week for the first time since World War II, as exports surged to near-record levels to satisfy demand from Asia and Europe, where buyers were scrambling to replace Middle Eastern supplies disrupted by the Iran conflict. The war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran caused an unprecedented shock to global energy markets, with threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz halting roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows. As a result, refiners in affected regions turned to alternative sources, significantly increasing demand for U.S. crude, though analysts note exports are nearing capacity limits.
Net U.S. crude imports dropped to just 66,000 barrels per day last week—the lowest level since records began in 2001—while exports rose to 5.2 million bpd, a seven-month high. Historically, the U.S. was last a net crude exporter in 1943. Strong export growth reflects how buyers in Europe and Asia are reaching further afield for supply, with price differences offsetting shipping costs. Countries like Greece have recently begun importing U.S. crude for the first time, and major buyers include the Netherlands, Japan, France, Germany, and South Korea. Nearly half of U.S. exports went to Europe, while Asia’s share has grown significantly.
Meanwhile, U.S. imports fell sharply, partly because domestic refineries rely on heavier crude than what the U.S. typically produces. A widening price gap—driven by a surge in Brent crude relative to West Texas Intermediate—has made U.S. oil more attractive overseas while reducing domestic demand for imports. Spot prices for crude deliveries to Europe and Africa have also hit record highs.
Despite strong demand, U.S. export growth is approaching logistical limits. Exports may average around 5.2 million bpd in April, close to the estimated maximum capacity of about 6 million bpd, constrained by pipeline infrastructure and tanker availability. Although releasing medium sour crude from strategic reserves could free up more light crude for export, higher shipping costs and limited tanker supply could dampen further growth. About 80 empty supertankers were reportedly heading to the Gulf of Mexico, likely to load crude in the coming weeks.
Oil prices declined for a second consecutive day on Wednesday as expectations grew that peace talks between the U.S. and Iran could resume, potentially restoring supply from the Middle East that has been disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude slipped 0.55% to $94.27 per barrel after a sharp 4.6% drop in the previous session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.1% to $90.24 following an even steeper 7.9% decline earlier.
Investor sentiment improved after President Donald Trump suggested that negotiations to end the conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran could restart in Pakistan within days. The earlier breakdown in talks had led Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports, but renewed diplomatic hopes are raising expectations that oil and fuel flows could eventually resume.
The conflict has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for transporting crude and refined products from the Gulf to global markets, particularly in Asia and Europe. Although a ceasefire has been in place for two weeks, shipping activity remains severely limited, with vessel traffic far below pre-war levels.
On Tuesday, a U.S. warship reportedly prevented two oil tankers from departing Iran, underscoring ongoing disruptions. Analysts at the Schork Group noted that while diplomatic developments hint at easing restrictions, actual conditions on the ground remain unstable, leaving markets focused on the risk of supply disruptions rather than a full recovery.
Further tightening supply concerns, U.S. officials indicated that sanctions waivers on Iranian oil shipments will not be renewed, and a similar waiver for Russian oil has already expired.
Later in the day, attention will turn to U.S. inventory data from the Energy Information Administration. Expectations are for a modest increase in crude stockpiles, alongside declines in gasoline and distillate inventories. Meanwhile, preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute suggested that crude inventories rose for a third straight week.
Oil prices slipped in early Asian trading on Tuesday as renewed hopes for U.S.–Iran negotiations eased worries about supply disruptions linked to the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude dropped $1.86 (1.87%) to $97.50, while WTI fell $2.25 (2.27%) to $96.83. This pullback followed strong gains in the previous session, when prices surged after the U.S. launched a blockade of Iran’s ports.
The U.S. military expanded the blockade beyond the strait into the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, with early signs of disruption already visible as ships began turning back. In response, Iran warned it could target ports in neighboring Gulf countries after weekend talks in Islamabad failed to produce a resolution.
Despite the breakdown, optimism lingered as both sides signaled a willingness to keep negotiations alive. Analysts noted that even the hint of a potential deal helped cool the rally in oil prices.
Market estimates suggest roughly 10 million barrels per day of supply have already been affected, with the risk of further losses if the blockade continues. Still, analysts argue that tight supply conditions alone may be enough to keep prices elevated.
Meanwhile, NATO allies such as Britain and France declined to support the blockade, instead pushing for the reopening of the key shipping route. U.S. officials indicated prices could peak in the coming weeks if flows resume.
Global institutions, including the IMF, World Bank, and IEA, urged countries to avoid hoarding or restricting exports, warning of a major shock to the energy market. OPEC also trimmed its global demand forecast for the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day.
WTI surges about 8% toward $100 after the U.S. blocks the Strait of Hormuz Strait of Hormuz.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the US crude benchmark – started the week with a bullish gap, rising around 8% as it moves back toward the $100 level.
The rally follows renewed escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran after weekend peace talks lasting 21 hours collapsed.
US President Donald Trump responded by pledging a blockade of Iranian ports and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) also stated that forces will begin restricting all vessel movement in and out of Iranian ports from Monday at 10:00 AM ET (14:00 GMT).
According to a Wall Street Journal report, Trump and his advisers are also considering limited military strikes on Iran alongside the blockade to increase pressure in stalled negotiations.
Market attention now shifts to further details on the blockade and its potential impact on the already fragile US–Iran ceasefire.
EUR/USD extends its gains as bullish momentum builds, with traders targeting further upside.
EUR/USD has extended its upside momentum, breaking higher after a decisive technical breakout.
The pair began a fresh rally above 1.1650 and moved beyond a key contracting triangle resistance at 1.1610 on the 4-hour chart.
Price action is now trading above 1.1665 as well as both the 100-period (red) and 200-period (green) simple moving averages, confirming a stronger bullish structure. The breakout has already driven the pair toward the 1.1740 area.
If buyers maintain control, the next upside targets are seen at 1.1780, with initial major resistance at 1.1800. A sustained break above this level could open the path toward 1.1840, and a further close above it would expose potential gains toward 1.1920 and even the 1.2000 psychological level.
On the downside, immediate support lies near 1.1685, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent move from 1.1505 to 1.1739. Key support follows at 1.1620 and the 1.1600 region, which also aligns with the 200-SMA. A breakdown below 1.1600 could shift momentum lower toward the 100-SMA, with deeper losses potentially reopening the 1.1500 area.
One of the most compelling charts this week is Bitcoin. Despite widespread hesitation and global risk aversion, it has remained relatively resilient instead of breaking down. In addition, Wall Street–based ETFs tied to Bitcoin continue to attract inflows, even as overall market sentiment stays cautious.
That said, this suggests a level of resilience in the Bitcoin market that shouldn’t be overlooked. At some point, the market will need to make a longer-term move, and based on current signals, it appears to be leaning toward a bullish outcome.
This outlook is somewhat logical, considering Bitcoin has already dropped around 50% from its highs. For long-term holders, that kind of correction often signals a potential buying opportunity. While I’m not strongly bullish on Bitcoin overall, the technical picture indicates that a move above $76,000 could quickly become significant.
NASDAQ 100
The Nasdaq 100 moved higher over the week, largely driven by the ceasefire announcement, which boosted overall risk appetite. By the end of the week, the index was hovering around the 25,000 level. However, with key talks taking place in Pakistan over the weekend, market sentiment could shift quickly as early as Monday. For this reason, I remain optimistic about equities—but only with a strong sense of caution.
USD/MXN
The US dollar declined sharply against the Mexican peso over the week as risk appetite returned. It’s also important to note the significant interest rate gap between the two economies, which encourages traders to short this pair, as holding Mexican pesos allows them to earn daily carry.
It now appears that the pair is on the verge of breaking down toward the 17 peso level. However, that level may not matter much at this stage due to the upcoming meeting in Pakistan over the weekend. If the outcome is negative, the US dollar is likely to strengthen; if not, the current downward trend should continue.
DAX
Germany’s DAX ended the week in positive territory, although it closed on a weak note on Friday. This likely reflects caution ahead of the weekend meeting, as Germany remains highly sensitive to energy supply risks—particularly LNG from Qatar and crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption there could create significant challenges for its industrial sector. As a result, many traders appear to be locking in profits and reducing exposure ahead of potentially impactful developments from the talks in Pakistan.
USD/CAD
The US dollar has declined against the Canadian dollar and is now hovering around both the 50-week EMA and the 200-day EMA, making a pause at this level quite reasonable. As with other markets, Monday’s open will likely be influenced by developments in Islamabad. Overall, this appears to be a market attempting to establish support before potentially moving higher. The 1.3750 level stands out as a key area to watch for a possible bounce if the pair continues to pull back, while the 1.40 level remains a significant resistance to the upside.
EUR/USD
The euro posted a solid rally over the week, largely supported by improving risk appetite. It has now climbed above the 1.17 level for the first time in about five weeks. If this momentum holds, the next target to watch would be the 1.18 level.
The 1.18 level represents a major resistance zone. However, if the talks between Iran and the United States produce positive outcomes, it could trigger a broad relief rally—potentially pushing this market higher along with others.
Silver
Silver has been volatile but clearly positive over the week as it continues to search for a bottom. The market is likely to remain choppy, and while a larger move will eventually take shape, it may not be the ideal time to take on significant positions.
Interest rates will remain a key driver here, so it’s important to watch the US 10-year yield closely. Generally, a move above 4.30% tends to be negative for this market—though it’s not a definitive rule, just one of several influencing factors. Additionally, developments coming out of Islamabad and the ongoing talks are likely to have a significant impact on interest rate expectations, which will in turn affect price action here.
Gold
The gold market has also moved higher, but this seems to have caught many traders off guard, as the main driver has been interest rates rather than geopolitical fear. Many people are puzzled by gold’s weakness during times of conflict, but the explanation lies in the bond market—yields are now significantly higher than before, prompting portfolio managers to shift allocations toward interest-bearing assets instead of gold.
I remain bullish on gold over the longer term, but I also recognize that a renewed spike in yields—possibly triggered by disappointing outcomes from the talks in Islamabad—could push the market down toward the $4,600 level. On the upside, the $5,000 mark stands out as the first major resistance zone.
Oil prices rose on Friday amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and continued minimal tanker movement through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the gains, crude was still on track for a weekly decline as market fears eased slightly following a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. At the same time, Israel indicated a possible diplomatic shift, expressing readiness to start direct negotiations with Lebanon soon.
Brent crude increased by $0.96, or 1%, to $96.88 per barrel at 0604 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $0.78, or 0.80%, reaching $98.65 per barrel.
Both benchmarks are down roughly 11% so far this week, marking their steepest weekly drop since June 2025, when earlier Israeli-U.S. strikes on Iran were paused.
According to Saudi Arabia’s state news agency SPA, citing the Ministry of Energy, attacks on key energy infrastructure have reduced the kingdom’s oil output capacity by about 600,000 barrels per day and cut throughput on the East-West Pipeline by approximately 700,000 barrels per day.
Analysts at ANZ noted that these developments have intensified concerns about further supply disruptions.
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained below 10% of normal levels on Thursday, despite the ceasefire, as Iran asserted control by instructing vessels to stay within its territorial waters.
Although Iran and the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, clashes reportedly continued afterward.
Experts suggest Pakistan may attempt to broker a longer-term agreement, but its ability to enforce the reopening of the waterway remains limited.
A Tehran official also told Reuters that Iran is seeking to impose transit fees on ships passing through the Strait under any peace arrangement, an idea opposed by Western governments and the U.N. shipping agency.
The conflict, which began on February 28 following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, has effectively disrupted one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Energy consultant John Paisie of Stratas Advisors warned that Brent crude could surge to $190 per barrel if current shipping constraints persist, though prices would be more contained if flows improve, albeit still above pre-war levels.
Mukesh Sahdev, CEO of XAnalysts, emphasized that the critical issue is not whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, but how quickly normal oil flows can resume.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan estimated that around 50 energy infrastructure sites across the Gulf have been damaged by drone and missile attacks since the conflict began, with approximately 2.4 million barrels per day of refining capacity taken offline.
Gold is once again being driven primarily by interest rates rather than risk sentiment, with US Treasury yields taking the lead as markets head into a heavy US data schedule.
The inverse relationship between gold and yields has strengthened notably, placing key inflation readings like CPI and core PCE at the center of attention. Prices are currently moving within a clear range, with support around $4700 and resistance between $4800 and $4850. The next directional move will likely depend on whether yields continue rising or begin to ease, while ongoing developments surrounding the US–Iran ceasefire remain a secondary influence.
This renewed sensitivity to yields signals a return to more traditional macro dynamics, following a period where gold traded more like a high-volatility risk asset.
Whether this rate-driven relationship will persist is still uncertain. However, with correlation coefficients currently sitting in the high negative 0.9 range across both short- and long-term Treasury yields, gold is now highly sensitive to movements in interest rates. This sharp linkage brings not only developments in the US–Iran ceasefire into focus, but also an upcoming wave of US economic data that is likely to challenge and validate the strength of this relationship in the near term.
Inflation data is set to put this relationship to the test.
While the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, is due later today, it may carry less weight as it reflects February data and predates the energy price shock linked to the Iran conflict. Instead, markets may focus more on income and spending figures for clues on consumption and broader economic momentum in the March quarter. Strong data could reignite concerns about rising inflation, while weaker numbers may ease pressure by signaling softer demand and hiring.
Following a weak 10-year Treasury auction midweek, attention may also turn to the 30-year bond auction for its impact on yields. Still, Friday’s release of March CPI is expected to be the key event. Headline inflation is likely to rise due to energy costs, but the critical question is whether those pressures spill into core inflation. Any reading above the 0.3% forecast could push markets to reconsider the possibility of Fed rate hikes rather than cuts this year.
Inflation expectations will also be in focus, with the University of Michigan’s 5-year outlook offering timely insight into consumer sentiment around future prices, wages, and spending.
If inflation surprises to the upside, Treasury yields are likely to climb—potentially weighing on gold given their strong inverse relationship. Conversely, softer inflation data could support bullion. Beyond economic data, developments surrounding the US–Iran ceasefire remain an important underlying risk factor.
Price action remains orderly and well-defined.
On the daily chart, the presence of a bearish pin bar reinforces the earlier signal that sellers are active in the $4800–$4850 zone, establishing it as a key overhead resistance area for traders.
A closer look at the H4 timeframe confirms both this resistance and the overall clarity of gold’s price action, especially given the broader macro volatility. The $4700 level, which previously acted as resistance, has now flipped into support and serves as the first downside level to watch. Below that, $4600 and $4550 emerge as additional support zones if the current range breaks.
On the upside, a sustained move above $4850 would open the door toward $4975, with the 50-day moving average sitting in between as a potential intermediate hurdle. Momentum indicators such as RSI (14) and MACD remain neutral, offering no strong directional bias and reinforcing the importance of reacting to price behavior around key levels.
From a short-term trading perspective, long positions could be considered above $4700 with tight risk control below that level, targeting a move back toward $4850 resistance. However, conviction in this setup is limited, and a confirmed bounce from $4700 would provide a more reliable entry signal.
Silver futures are trading within a key VC PMI decision zone after being rejected from the Daily Sell 1 level around $77.68 and failing to maintain momentum toward Daily Sell 2 at $79.96. Prices have since moved back below the Daily Mean of $75.51 and are now testing the Daily Buy 1 level at $73.23, indicating a shift from a bullish expansion phase into a mean reversion setup.
Based on VC PMI probabilities, a move into the Buy 1 level carries roughly a 90% chance of reverting back toward the mean. If the $73.23 level fails to hold, the market could extend its decline toward Daily Buy 2 at $71.06, where extreme conditions—with a 95% probability—often draw in institutional buying. The overlap with the Weekly Mean around $72.30 further strengthens this area as a key support pivot.
From a cyclical standpoint, the market is approaching a critical inflection period between April 8–10, when a directional move is likely to emerge. If prices hold above Buy 1 during this window, a rebound toward $75.53 and possibly a retest of $77.68 becomes the higher-probability scenario. On the other hand, a drop into Buy 2 within this timeframe could signal a final capitulation before a broader upward move.
Square of 9 geometry supports this structure, highlighting the $72–$73 area as a harmonic support zone, while upside levels at $77, $80, and $82 correspond to rotational resistance. A sustained breakout above $80.87 (Weekly Sell 2) would indicate a fractal shift, pushing the market into a higher trading range and confirming a longer-term bullish continuation.
Volume behavior points to accumulation during pullbacks, suggesting weaker long positions are being shaken out while stronger participants build exposure ahead of the next expansion phase. This reinforces the view that the current decline is corrective rather than structural.
Strategy: Buyers may consider gradually scaling in near Buy 1 and Buy 2 with disciplined risk control. Rather than chasing upward momentum, traders should wait for confirmation of reversal signals within the cycle window. A move back above the mean would signal a return of bullish momentum.
Goldman Sachs slightly lowered its second-quarter oil price outlook after the U.S.–Iran two-week ceasefire, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though it maintained its medium-term forecasts and warned that risks still lean to the upside.
Oil prices dropped to the mid-$90s per barrel following the announcement, in line with Goldman’s expectations that energy flows through the Strait would begin recovering quickly and that Persian Gulf exports would gradually return to pre-war levels within about a month.
The bank cut its Q2 forecasts for Brent and WTI to $90 and $87 per barrel, respectively, from earlier estimates of $99 and $91, citing a reduced geopolitical risk premium and early signs of improving oil flows. However, it left its second-half projections unchanged, with Brent seen at $82 and $80, and WTI at $77 and $75.
Despite the ceasefire, Goldman cautioned that the situation remains fragile and uncertain, with upside risks to prices driven by the possibility of prolonged disruptions or ongoing production losses. In a downside scenario where the ceasefire breaks down and reopening of the Strait is delayed, Brent could average $100 in Q4. In a more severe case involving sustained supply losses of 2 million barrels per day, prices could rise as high as $115.
On natural gas, European TTF prices fell sharply after the ceasefire. Goldman lowered its Q2 TTF forecast to 50 EUR/MWh from 70, citing weak Chinese LNG demand that has kept European supply relatively strong. Its second-half outlook remained broadly unchanged at 42 EUR/MWh, though risks are still skewed higher. If LNG flows are disrupted further, prices could surge above 75 EUR/MWh due to the need for significant demand destruction.
Could markets be misjudging both oil and the war, as this analyst argues?
Possibly—but what about the relationship between oil and gold? The mainstream narrative suggests that surging oil prices are a bearish signal for gold, based on claims that “gold yields no interest” and that “the Fed might raise rates by a quarter point (though it’s unlikely), while real inflation runs near 15%,” leading to the conclusion that “gold should decline sharply against fiat currencies.”
Western analysis of oil, war, and gold is deeply troubling—arguably even reprehensible. It feels like something straight out of a Nineteen Eighty-Four… except it’s happening in reality.
A closer look at currency market dynamics suggests that as interest rates rise, the heavily indebted U.S. government faces increasing borrowing needs to sustain its finances. This pressure can lead to policies that shift the burden beyond its borders, affecting global economic stability.
History offers parallels—such as Ancient Rome—where excessive debt strained state behavior and credibility. Some argue that similar pressures are emerging in modern fiscal systems.
In simple terms, critics of fiat systems view government-issued currency as vulnerable to mismanagement, while seeing gold as a more reliable store of value for individuals worldwide.
What are the most attractive price levels for investors to accumulate more gold? Looking at the daily chart, the $4,400 range previously acted as a strong buying zone, while $4,100 represented a secondary level of support.
That said, investors may benefit more from focusing on time rather than precise price points. If gold trades within a range for the rest of the year, a disciplined accumulation strategy—such as monthly purchases (or weekly for more aggressive investors)—could be more effective.
Time-based buying helps reduce the emotional stress of trying to predict short-term price movements, which often leads to cycles of fear and greed.
Ultimately, steadily increasing gold holdings may matter more than timing the exact entry. Still, from a price perspective, the $5,600, $3,900, and $3,500 levels could all serve as attractive accumulation zones if the market pulls back.
If gold were to climb into the $6,500–$7,500 range, then $5,600 could become a particularly significant support level—potentially one of the most important in the market’s history. From there, some bullish scenarios suggest the possibility of a powerful rally toward $15,000–$20,000.
Such dramatic price action would likely require major catalysts—such as sustained inflation, escalating debt pressures, geopolitical instability, or a significant loss of confidence in fiat currencies.
The U.S. interest rate chart is drawing attention, with what appears to be a large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern suggesting a potential move toward the 7%–8% range.
At the same time, many argue that the real inflation experienced by average Americans may be closer to 8%–15%, higher than official figures. If that view gains traction, the prevailing institutional narrative—where rising rates are seen as negative for gold—could shift.
Instead, rising rates might come to be interpreted as a signal that inflation is persistent and that government financing pressures are intensifying. In that scenario, investors could increasingly turn to gold, viewing it as a hedge and continuing to accumulate it over time.
A long-term view of the 40-year U.S. inflation–deflation cycle suggests that policy shifts could have major consequences. If a future Fed leader—such as Kevin Warsh—were to scale back quantitative easing, government borrowing pressures would likely remain.
Even without aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, market forces themselves could push interest rates higher.
For investors, maintaining a focus on the broader macro picture is essential. Key factors shaping the landscape include inflation trends, tariffs, geopolitical tensions, elevated equity valuations, debt ceiling challenges, and potential shifts in global economic leadership.
Critics argue that instead of implementing significant spending cuts, policymakers have relied on measures like tariffs, which may contribute to inflationary pressure. At the same time, rising fiscal deficits and geopolitical risks could undermine confidence in government bonds, prompting central banks and institutional investors to reduce their holdings.
This dynamic may create a feedback loop: higher debt levels, rising borrowing costs, and declining bond demand reinforcing one another.
In that context, some bullish perspectives suggest that gold could see substantial long-term gains, while interest rates could continue trending higher—though projections as extreme as $20,000 gold or 20% rates remain highly speculative and dependent on extraordinary economic conditions.
And what about the miners? The GDX chart looks particularly impressive, with a clear inverse head-and-shoulders pattern forming. The head developed around the critical $85 support level, where the 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator also signaled a bottom.
After a brief two-day pullback, price is now hovering near $92—potentially setting up as a springboard for the next upward move. At the same time, a broader buy signal from the 20,40,10 MACD indicator appears to be on the verge of triggering—possibly as soon as today.
Markets have rebounded strongly after President Donald Trump chose to halt military action against Iran, but improved risk sentiment doesn’t change the bigger picture—oil prices are likely to stay elevated.
A clear relief rally is underway. US equity futures jumped almost immediately following the announcement of a two-week pause, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq-100 all moving sharply higher. Meanwhile, oil prices, which had surged on fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, retreated as traders quickly unwound worst-case positions.
The speed of the reaction highlights how markets had been positioned for escalation. Defensive strategies were widespread, volatility was high, and crude prices had already priced in a significant geopolitical premium. Removing even part of that risk triggered a rapid reversal.
This strong rally also reflects how stretched investor sentiment had become. Markets were preparing for a scenario where a substantial share of global oil supply could be disrupted. Even a temporary easing of those fears prompted a swift shift back into equities.
Equity markets had already hinted at a possible de-escalation. Despite increasingly aggressive rhetoric, indices had begun to stabilize, suggesting investors anticipated some form of pause. The confirmation has now accelerated the move back into risk assets.
Technology stocks are expected to lead the recovery. The sector had been hit hardest by rising yields and risk aversion, but slightly lower oil prices help ease inflation concerns, supporting valuations—especially for large-cap and AI-driven companies.
Consumer sectors should also benefit quickly. Lower oil prices reduce fuel costs, boosting household purchasing power. Airlines, travel firms, and retailers are particularly well positioned to gain from improved sentiment and lower input expenses.
Financial stocks are also likely to rise. Greater stability encourages deal-making, strengthens capital markets activity, and eases pressure on credit conditions. Banks typically perform better when uncertainty declines and risk appetite increases.
Energy stocks, however, face a more mixed outlook. In the short term, falling crude prices may weigh on them. But underlying supply constraints remain unresolved, inventories are still tight, and geopolitical fragmentation continues to influence energy flows.
There’s a reason oil prices remain significantly higher this year. The risks go beyond the current conflict. Even if shipping through Hormuz resumes, it only provides temporary relief and does not fix deeper vulnerabilities in global energy supply chains.
As a result, oil is unlikely to fall back to previous lows anytime soon. A geopolitical premium is now built into prices, and traders will continue to factor in the risk of renewed disruptions.
Attention now turns to whether the two-week pause will hold. Temporary ceasefires often come with uncertainty, effectively starting a countdown. Markets will be watching closely to see if diplomacy can turn this into a longer-term solution.
Key factors include compliance with the pause, coordination over shipping routes, and the tone of ongoing negotiations. Meaningful progress could extend the rally further, lifting industrials, cyclical sectors, and emerging markets.
However, if diplomacy fails, sentiment could reverse quickly. Oil prices would likely surge again, volatility would return, and recent equity gains could be erased.
For now, investors are navigating a narrow path between opportunity and risk. The current rally is driven by reduced immediate fear, but underlying tensions remain unresolved—and energy markets continue to reflect that uncertainty.
Positioning for short-term gains may be reasonable, but any sustained upside will depend entirely on whether diplomatic efforts lead to lasting progress.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran just hours before his deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face major strikes on civilian infrastructure. The move marked a sharp reversal from his earlier warning that catastrophic consequences would follow if his demands were ignored. Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif played a key role in brokering the deal, with talks potentially set to continue in Islamabad.
The agreement hinges on Iran easing its blockade of the strategic waterway, which carries about 20% of global oil shipments. In response, Iran signaled it would halt counterattacks and allow safe passage if hostilities against it cease. While Trump hailed the deal as a “total victory” and a step toward long-term peace in the Middle East, Iranian officials framed it as a win for their own conditions being accepted.
Despite optimism, uncertainty remains over whether the ceasefire will hold, with some officials viewing it as a temporary confidence-building measure. Israel backed the pause in strikes on Iran but indicated the truce does not extend to Lebanon, highlighting conflicting interpretations of the agreement. Meanwhile, hostilities appeared to continue shortly after the announcement, with missile activity reported and defensive systems activated across the region.
Markets reacted positively to the news, with oil prices dropping, stocks rising, and the dollar weakening amid hopes that trade through the Strait of Hormuz could resume. Global leaders welcomed the development, noting both the economic risks and human toll of the six-week conflict, which has killed more than 5,000 people. Analysts suggest the ceasefire may reflect growing pressure on Trump to de-escalate a prolonged and unpopular war, while still framing the outcome as a strategic success.
Gold prices dipped in Asian trade on Tuesday, marking a third consecutive day of losses, as investors grappled with inflation and interest-rate concerns ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s looming deadline on Iran. Spot gold eased about 0.2% to roughly $4,640 an ounce by early U.S. trading, while U.S. gold futures also retreated. Markets had closed lower on Monday after a volatile session.
Trump’s warning to Iran fuels concerns about rising inflation.
Trump’s escalating rhetoric on Iran added to inflation concerns, even as geopolitical tensions intensified. He warned that Iran could face severe consequences if it failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by his Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline, increasing fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East.
The standoff has already disrupted global energy supplies and driven oil prices higher, further fueling inflation expectations and clouding the outlook for monetary policy.
Although gold is usually supported by geopolitical uncertainty, it has instead weakened as rising oil prices feed inflation worries and reduce the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Higher interest rates tend to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold, while a stronger dollar has also added pressure on bullion prices.
Iran has turned down a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire.
Diplomatic efforts to ease the conflict have made limited headway. Iran has rejected a U.S.-backed proposal for a 45-day ceasefire and a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Instead, Tehran is pushing for a comprehensive settlement that includes sanctions relief, security assurances, and compensation for damages.
The absence of any breakthrough has increased uncertainty in financial markets, with investors closely monitoring developments ahead of Trump’s deadline.
Market participants are also awaiting key U.S. inflation figures due on Friday, which are expected to offer further signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
In other precious metals, silver declined 0.9% to $72.16 per ounce, while platinum fell 1% to $1,963.60 per ounce. Meanwhile, copper prices moved higher, with benchmark London Metal Exchange futures rising 0.7% to $12,422.5 a ton, and U.S. copper futures edging up 0.3% to $5.62 per pound.
Iran has prepared its reply to the proposed ceasefire terms, according to a foreign ministry spokesperson.
Iran has outlined its positions and demands in response to recent ceasefire proposals delivered through intermediaries, a foreign ministry spokesperson said Monday, stressing that negotiations cannot proceed under ultimatums or threats of war crimes.
Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei noted that Tehran’s requirements—based on national interests—have already been communicated via intermediary channels, while earlier U.S. proposals, including a 15-point plan, were rejected as excessive.
He emphasized that clearly stating Iran’s legitimate demands should not be seen as compromise, but as confidence in defending its stance. Baghaei added that Iran has prepared its responses and will disclose further details in due course.
US and Iran consider a peace proposal as Trump warns of severe retaliation if the Strait remains closed.
The United States and Iran have received an outline for ending the conflict, but Tehran has refused to immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even after Donald Trump warned of severe consequences if no deal is reached by Tuesday.
According to a source, the proposal follows a two-stage plan: an immediate ceasefire, followed by a broader agreement to be finalized within 15–20 days. Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, has reportedly been in continuous contact with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi.
Iran, however, has rejected reopening the Strait under a temporary truce and dismissed imposed deadlines, while also expressing doubts about Washington’s commitment to a lasting ceasefire.
Earlier, Axios reported that the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators were exploring a potential 45-day ceasefire as part of a phased deal toward ending the war.
Trump, posting on Truth Social, issued a deadline of Tuesday evening, threatening further strikes on Iran’s infrastructure if the Strait remains closed.
Meanwhile, airstrikes continued across the region, more than five weeks into the conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Tehran has responded by effectively shutting the Strait—through which about 20% of global oil and gas flows—and launching attacks on Israel, U.S. bases, and energy sites in the Gulf.
Officials in the UAE emphasized that any agreement must ensure free passage through the Strait, warning that failing to curb Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities could lead to greater regional instability.
Despite repeated U.S. claims of weakening Iran’s military capacity, recent Iranian strikes on petrochemical facilities and vessels in Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE highlight its continued ability to retaliate.
The conflict has caused heavy casualties: thousands have died in Iran, including many civilians, while Israel and Lebanon have also suffered significant losses as fighting spreads, including clashes with Iran-backed Hezbollah forces.
UBS remains bullish on gold, expecting prices to hit fresh highs this year as upside risks continue to build, according to strategist Joni Teves in a Thursday note.
Gold has faced pressure recently, as markets reacted to the inflationary effects of rising oil prices and the possibility of further interest rate hikes. Higher U.S. real yields and a stronger dollar have also weighed on the metal.
Despite this, Teves views recent declines as buying opportunities. He noted that the likelihood of gold extending its bull run over the next few years is increasing, particularly if weaker economic growth leads to fiscal or monetary stimulus—factors that would support higher prices. UBS reiterated that its overall outlook remains unchanged, continuing to expect new highs this year and encouraging investors to use pullbacks to build positions.
The bank now forecasts gold to average $5,000 per ounce in 2026, slightly lowered from its previous $5,200 estimate due to recent price adjustments after January’s peak. Projections for 2027 and 2028 remain unchanged at $4,800 and $4,250, respectively.
Teves also pointed out that speculative positions have been largely cleared out, while ETF outflows remain limited, creating room for renewed investor demand. Strong inflows into gold ETFs in China and steady domestic physical demand are expected to support imports through the second quarter. UBS believes the market is currently underinvested and sees any dip toward $4,000 as an attractive entry point. The bank also highlighted a structural shift, with more investors—both public and private—treating gold as a long-term strategic asset for diversification and portfolio protection.
For silver, UBS lowered its 2026 forecast to $91.9 per ounce from $105, though it still expects silver to outperform gold during rallies. However, Teves cautioned that silver’s industrial exposure makes it vulnerable to global economic slowdowns, which could weaken demand and sentiment. As a result, the gold-to-silver ratio may struggle to revisit earlier lows and is more likely to bottom in the 50–60 range rather than around 40.
Platinum and palladium face similar challenges from softer industrial demand, although potential supply disruptions—especially if Middle East tensions affect South African mining—could offer some support.
For the first time, India’s mutual fund industry is now permitted to include silver within equity and hybrid portfolio structures, marking a significant shift in asset allocation options.
To put this into perspective, India is already the world’s most silver-intensive consumer market in bullion and investment demand. Silver imports reached a record 247.4 million ounces (Moz) in 2024, while holdings in silver ETFs surged about 195% year-on-year—from roughly 13 Moz at the end of 2023 to 38.6 Moz by the end of 2024, nearly tripling within a single year. This growth reflects a deeply rooted cultural preference for silver that is not matched in most Western markets.
Despite this strong demand base, India’s large institutional capital pools previously had no scalable or direct route to allocate to silver ETFs through standard equity and hybrid fund structures.
As of April 1, 2026, that constraint has been lifted.
What SEBI Has Changed and Why It Is Important
India’s Securities and Exchange Board of India has officially introduced two linked reforms today, reshaping the way mutual funds in India are able to invest in silver.
The valuation change is largely technical but still important: funds benchmarked to the London price previously traded at a persistent divergence from actual silver prices in Mumbai. That spread acted as a structural barrier to institutional participation. Its removal effectively eliminates an arbitrage that had made silver ETF exposure in India less precise for fund managers.
The allocation change, however, is the more consequential structural shift.
India’s mutual fund industry manages around ₹82 trillion (about $950 billion) in assets under management as of February 2026. Equity and hybrid schemes form the largest segment. Before this reform, these schemes were not permitted to allocate to silver at all. The new framework changes that, though access is limited to the residual allocation bucket—assets left after meeting core equity or hybrid mandates—capped at 35% and shared among gold, InvITs, and debt instruments as competing options.
To put the scale in perspective:
A 0.1% allocation from equity and hybrid AUM into silver ETFs would translate to roughly $950 million in new demand, or about 13 Moz at current prices.
A 0.5% allocation would imply around $4.75 billion, or approximately 65 Moz.
A 1.0% allocation would equate to about $9.5 billion, or roughly 130 Moz.
These figures represent potential scale rather than immediate inflows; actual deployment will depend on how quickly fund managers adopt the new flexibility and is expected to unfold gradually. Moreover, this is a simplified upper-bound illustration, as silver must compete within the residual bucket alongside other asset classes such as gold, InvITs, and debt. Analysts cited by the Economic Times suggest most equity schemes are unlikely to fully utilize the 35% cap and will instead treat precious metals as a tactical, not structural, allocation.
Even so, when set against a sixth consecutive structural silver deficit projected at around 67 Moz by Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, even conservative participation levels could be material relative to the underlying supply shortfall.
The growth trend that was already in motion
What makes this reform significant is the existing momentum it builds upon. Even before institutional access was expanded, Indian retail investors were already fueling strong growth in silver ETPs:
That nearly threefold increase between 2023 and 2024—and almost fivefold growth over two years—was driven entirely by retail investors and fund categories that already had permission to hold silver. The institutional equity and hybrid segment contributed nothing to that expansion.
The SEBI reform today layers institutional access onto a base that was already accelerating at a 63% annual growth rate before 2024, before surging 195% in 2024 alone. The key question is no longer whether institutional capital will eventually flow into silver through this channel, but how quickly fund managers begin acting on a mandate that did not exist until now.
Why Institutional Flows Behave Differently
Retail silver demand in India is inherently cyclical and seasonal. Wedding seasons drive jewelry and silverware purchases, while festivals spur buying of coins and bars. This demand is substantial—reflected in 247.4 Moz of imports in 2024—but it fluctuates strongly with the calendar.
Institutional allocations operate on a different mechanism. Once a fund’s mandate includes silver ETFs, exposure is expressed as a portfolio weight and rebalanced systematically over time. It does not switch off after festivals, weaken during sentiment downturns, or disappear in corrections. The first clear signal of adoption will likely appear in AMFI monthly flow data, which tracks how mutual funds are reallocating across asset classes, showing whether managers are actively implementing the new framework or taking a cautious, wait-and-see approach.
The structural significance, therefore, is not immediate multi-billion-dollar inflows. It is the creation of a permanent allocation channel in a market that already combines the world’s largest physical silver demand base with a rapidly expanding institutional asset management system.
The SEBI reform is one component. The broader story is the convergence of multiple catalysts within a very short time window.
Gold futures continue to display a strong bullish monthly structure, with momentum remaining firmly upward as prices hold above the VC PMI mean at $4,761. This level acts as a key equilibrium point, and sustained trading above it is typically interpreted as a sign of institutional accumulation and ongoing trend strength.
The recent move into the $4,815–$4,820 area suggests the market is shifting from a consolidation phase into a broader expansion phase. At the same time, rising volatility is increasingly aligned with upward price continuation, supporting a bias toward further gains.
From a VC PMI perspective, the market has held above the Buy 1 level at $4,047, where historical demand typically emerges with a high probability (around 90%) of mean reversion. The fact that price has not retested this level further strengthens the bullish structure and suggests continued buyer dominance.
On the upside, the next key structural reference points are Sell 1 at $5,392 and Sell 2 at $6,106, which are viewed as extended deviation zones above the mean. As price moves closer to these areas, conditions tend to favor profit-taking rather than new long entries.
Cycle analysis also points to a favorable momentum phase extending into early to mid-April, supporting continued upside expansion in line with the recent breakout above the mean. A key cycle turning point is expected around mid-April, where the market may either accelerate toward Sell 1 or enter a period of consolidation. Looking further ahead into May–June, broader cycle structure continues to lean bullish, supporting the potential for higher highs and a sustained move toward and potentially beyond the $5,000 level.
Square of 9 geometry further supports this outlook, with key harmonic resistance emerging around the $4,950–$5,050 zone, followed by a larger expansion node near $5,392 (Sell 1). A decisive break and sustained trade above $5,050 would signal a shift into a higher-momentum geometric phase, increasing the likelihood of continuation toward upper projected levels. These price zones are interpreted as natural vibration points where both time and price align, reinforcing the probability of trend persistence.
Overall market conditions remain bullish while price holds above $4,761. The preferred strategy continues to favor buying dips rather than selling strength, as long as this structural support remains intact. A breakdown back below the mean would weaken momentum and return the market to a neutral posture.
Gold prices declined in Asian trading on Thursday, ending a four-session rally as markets responded to renewed escalation signals from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the Iran conflict.
Spot gold was last down 1.4% at $4,693.12 per ounce as of 22:21 ET (02:21 GMT), after briefly reaching an intraday high of $4,800.58. U.S. gold futures also fell nearly 2% to $4,721.80 per ounce.
Market sentiment shifted after Trump stated in a televised address that the U.S. would intensify military action against Iran over the next “two to three weeks,” reaffirming Washington’s position on blocking Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. He added, “We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong.”
The comments contrasted with earlier remarks this week suggesting the U.S. could withdraw from the conflict within a similar timeframe, even without a formal agreement.
Financial markets have remained highly reactive to changing rhetoric on the conflict as investors reassess geopolitical risk. Oil prices rebounded following Trump’s remarks, raising concerns about inflationary pressures that could keep interest rates higher for longer and reduce demand for non-yielding assets like gold.
The U.S. dollar also strengthened after two consecutive losing sessions, further weighing on gold by making it more expensive for foreign buyers.
Investors are now focused on upcoming U.S. jobs data due Friday for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, a key driver for precious metals.
Elsewhere in metals, silver dropped 3.2% to $72.77 per ounce, while platinum slipped 1.7% to $1,934.60 per ounce.
Oil jumped over 4% on escalation fears.
Oil prices surged by more than $4 on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States would continue military strikes against Iran, including energy and oil infrastructure, over the coming weeks, while offering no clear timeline for ending the conflict.
Brent crude futures jumped $4.88, or 4.8%, to $106.04 per barrel at 0200 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $4.17, or 4.2%, to $104.29 per barrel.
The rally followed earlier weakness, as both benchmarks had dropped by more than $1 earlier in the session ahead of Trump’s address and closed lower in the prior trading day.
In his televised national speech, Trump said U.S. forces had nearly achieved their objectives in the conflict with Iran and that the war was approaching its conclusion, though he did not specify a timeframe. “We are going to finish the job, and we’re going to finish it very fast. We’re getting very close,” he said.
Geopolitical risks in the region have escalated, with threats to maritime shipping increasing. On Wednesday, an oil tanker chartered by QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters, according to the country’s defence ministry.
Meanwhile, the head of the International Energy Agency warned that supply disruptions are beginning to affect Europe’s economy, with the region having previously relied on pre-war contracted oil shipments.
On the charts, both gold and the U.S. equity market are positioning for a meaningful upside move, with technical structures suggesting continued strength ahead.
A look at the short-term gold chart shows a clean ascending triangle formation, with price coiling beneath resistance and building pressure for a breakout. The measured move from this setup points toward the $5,000–$5,100 range.
That implies a strong continuation for those who accumulated during the dip into the $4,100 zone. Even more notable is that, despite the roughly $400/oz rally off the lows, gold still appears to be trading within a broader buy zone rather than an overextended blow-off phase.
On the daily timeframe, gold may be forming a large continuation structure, with a projected move that could extend beyond the $7,000 level.
At the same time, momentum indicators are deeply stretched to the downside. The MACD (20,40,10) is at one of its most oversold readings in years, and both the Stochastic (14,7,7) and RSI are showing similarly extreme conditions. This kind of setup often precedes a strong upside continuation once momentum resets.
The U.S. stock market “buy zone” setup reinforces the bullish case. When the Dow Jones Industrial Average and gold simultaneously test strong support levels, it often creates some of the most favorable entry points across gold, silver, and mining equities.
Right now, the Dow is sitting near the 45,000 level—a technically significant support zone—while key momentum indicators like RSI, MACD, and Stochastics are deeply oversold. That mirrors the condition in gold, where downside momentum appears exhausted.
In simple technical terms, this is a coordinated setup: gold is the asset with explosive upside potential, while the stock market provides the broader risk-on backdrop that helps fuel the move. If both stabilize and turn higher together, it creates the kind of alignment that can drive powerful upside trends across the precious metals complex.
From a fundamental perspective, the messaging backdrop matters as much as the data. When policymakers try to stabilize sentiment, it’s far more effective when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is sitting at a major technical support zone—like the 45,000 area. Strong support gives credibility to optimistic guidance; it’s easier to “talk up” markets that are already positioned to bounce.
The geopolitical layer adds another dimension. A potential de-escalation or deal involving United States and Iran would be a key variable, particularly through the energy channel. While the timing and likelihood remain uncertain, the market clearly needs some form of resolution to stabilize expectations.
The chokepoint is the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for global oil flows. If disruptions persist and the passage isn’t fully normalized, supply constraints could intensify. Right now, the pressure is being felt more acutely across parts of Asia, but energy executives warn that shortages could begin affecting Western economies within weeks if conditions don’t improve.
That feeds directly back into inflation. Sustained energy tightness keeps input costs elevated, which complicates central bank policy just as labor markets are softening. So while the technical setup points higher, the fundamental story hinges on whether energy pressures ease—or continue to reinforce the inflation side of the equation that’s already limiting policy flexibility.
A striking long-term oil chart is emerging, showing a major head-and-shoulders formation, with a potential price target around $245.
Curiously, the U.S. central bank seems to be brushing off the risks of a debt-financed war and rapidly building stagflation.
Meanwhile, surging fuel costs are crushing truckers, pushing some into bankruptcy. Airlines are raising fees, traffic through Hormuz has plunged from around 150 ships a day to just a handful, yet Fed Chair Jay Powell appears largely unfazed.
Equities may still be gearing up for another record run, potentially coinciding with oil pulling back toward the $70–$80 range. But beyond that…
Western investors may soon face a harsh realization: soaring oil prices, stagflation, excessive debt, and war are no longer the clear bearish signals for gold they were once thought to be.
The “March to Hades” chart highlights the long-term decline of U.S. fiat relative to gold.
Mainstream narratives often frame gold as a risky asset—something investors trade occasionally for large fiat gains. But in reality, the currency dynamic is the reverse. Seasoned gold advocates view gold as the superior form of money, meaning fiat should be used as the trading vehicle to accumulate more gold—locking in gains not in dollars, but in ounces.
Miners? The GDX daily chart looks exceptional—arguably a “chart of the year” contender.
At its core, a powerful technical setup is unfolding: the Dow, gold, and GDX are all testing support levels simultaneously, with oscillators flashing buy signals across the board.
The GDX chart itself appears remarkably clean—almost pristine.
For momentum traders, this could be an attractive entry point. Personally, I’d consider small positions in U.S. equities, while taking more meaningful exposure to gold, silver, and mining stocks. For gold-focused investors, it may be time to part with some fiat and lean into the opportunity on the buy side.
Gold extended its rally for a fourth consecutive session in Asian trading on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker dollar as investors assessed signs that the U.S. and Iran may be moving toward ending the Middle East conflict.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,694.16 an ounce by 21:35 ET (01:35 GMT), while U.S. gold futures gained 1% to $4,724.55. The metal had surged 3.5% in the prior session alongside a retreat in the dollar, though it still posted a decline of more than 11% for March.
Prices found support after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated Washington could withdraw from the conflict within “two to three weeks,” fueling hopes of de-escalation. Still, uncertainty around the timing and terms of any agreement kept market sentiment cautious.
On Iran’s side, state media reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled readiness to end the war, while maintaining key demands, including assurances against future attacks.
A softer dollar further underpinned gold by making it more appealing to overseas buyers, with the U.S. Dollar Index slipping 0.1% in Asian trading after a 0.6% drop in the previous session.
However, gains were limited by reports that Trump may halt the U.S. military campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, underscoring ongoing risks to global trade.
Gold’s rise this week follows recent volatility, as prices rebound from a sharp March selloff driven by a stronger dollar and changing expectations for U.S. interest rates.
In other precious metals, silver fell 1.1% to $74.35 per ounce, while platinum advanced 1% to $1,972.06 per ounce.
Gold is stabilizing above $4,500, though its recovery remains uncertain following a steep sell-off earlier this month. Despite a modest rebound at the start of the week, momentum is still fragile.
Gains in oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and a stronger U.S. dollar continue to limit gold’s upside potential. In the near term, resistance around $4,700 and support near $4,400 are expected to define its trading range.
Gold began the week on a positive note, rising 0.8% in early Monday trading. However, the recent surge in geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran triggered a sharp decline, and while prices are rebounding, it may be premature to view this as a full recovery.
Oil Price
Oil prices remain the key driver of market sentiment. Crude has stayed elevated after intensified weekend fighting between Israel and Iran, with the Houthis also entering the conflict. Although Trump claimed progress in negotiations, Iran has continued to reject those assertions.
While U.S. futures and European markets showed some early stability, this could prove short-lived, as seen in prior weeks. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen and bond yields remain firm.
Brent crude holding above $110 is reducing expectations for rate cuts and even prompting some to consider possible hikes. Typically, a stronger dollar and rising yields would pressure gold, but increased safe-haven demand is helping to keep it supported for now.
Still, investor confidence has weakened after gold’s previous strong upward trend stalled in recent months. Looking ahead, everything hinges on developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices, inflation, and central bank policy.
If tensions ease and oil prices decline in the coming weeks, the U.S. dollar could soften, which would support gold and other risk assets. However, the situation remains highly uncertain. Iran appears reluctant to negotiate, potentially leveraging elevated energy prices. Until there is clear progress toward de-escalation, any short-term market moves should be viewed cautiously.
XAU/USD technical analysis
Gold finished last week largely unchanged, rebounding from Monday’s decline after experiencing notable losses in the prior weeks. Importantly, it managed to stay above the $4,400 level — its February low — which provides a modestly positive signal.
That said, stronger confirmation is still needed before traders can conclude that gold has formed a bottom. Multiple resistance levels overhead may limit further gains, particularly as the metal has been in a downtrend since its peak in January.
Key Levels to Watch
A crucial area on the upside is the former short-term bullish trendline, now acting as resistance, along with the $4,700 level. This zone is strengthened by the 21-day exponential moving average near $4,750, making the $4,700–$4,750 range a significant barrier if prices continue to rise.
Beyond that, the next resistance lies between $4,800 and $4,840 — a region that has previously served as both support and resistance. A strong breakout above this band could open the path toward the key psychological level of $5,000.
On the downside, the $4,400–$4,500 zone is a critical support area. A daily close below this range would weaken the short-term outlook and could lead to a decline toward last week’s lows near $4,100, where the 200-day moving average provides additional support.
Further down, longer-term support is seen around $4,000, where a major upward trendline aligns with this important psychological level.
Overall, gold remains in a fragile position and has yet to fully stabilize.
A massive oil tanker near Dubai was struck by an Iranian attack following the latest threats from Trump.
Iran struck and set fire to a fully laden crude tanker near Dubai on Monday, as President Donald Trump warned Washington would destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure if Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The targeted vessel, the Kuwait-flagged Al-Salmi, is the latest in a series of attacks on commercial shipping using missiles and drone strikes in the Gulf since U.S. and Israeli forces hit Iran on February 28.
The conflict, now a month old, has expanded across the Middle East, causing heavy casualties, disrupting energy flows, and raising fears of a global economic downturn. Oil prices briefly surged again following the attack on the tanker, which has a capacity of roughly 2 million barrels valued at over $200 million. Its owner, Kuwait Petroleum Corp, said the strike occurred early Tuesday, igniting a fire and damaging the hull, though no injuries were reported. Dubai authorities later confirmed the blaze had been contained after what they described as a drone strike.
Rising oil and fuel costs are beginning to strain U.S. households and pose a political challenge for Trump and Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections, particularly after pledges to cut energy prices and boost domestic production. Gasoline prices in the U.S. climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, according to GasBuddy, as tighter global supply pushed crude above $101 per barrel.
Meanwhile, hostilities show no sign of easing, with concerns mounting over a broader regional war. Iran-aligned Houthi forces have launched missiles and drones at Israel, while Turkey reported intercepting a ballistic missile from Iran that briefly entered its airspace. Israel has carried out strikes on targets in Tehran and Hezbollah-linked sites in Beirut, with explosions reported across parts of the Iranian capital and power outages affecting some districts.
The Israeli military said four of its soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon, where recent incidents have also claimed the lives of UN peacekeepers. Iran’s military stated its latest wave of attacks targeted U.S. bases and Israeli positions across the region.
The U.S. has begun deploying thousands of troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, signaling potential escalation even as diplomatic efforts continue. The White House said Trump aims to secure a deal with Iran before an April 6 deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments.
While U.S. officials say talks are progressing, Iran has dismissed proposed terms as unrealistic, insisting it is focused on defense amid ongoing attacks. Trump reiterated both optimism for a deal and a renewed threat to destroy Iran’s energy facilities if no agreement is reached, though reports suggest he may be open to ending military operations even if the strait remains partially closed.
Oil prices later eased and equities recovered on hopes of de-escalation. Still, the administration is weighing further steps, including seeking financial contributions from Arab allies, as it requests an additional $200 billion in war funding—an effort likely to face resistance in Congress.
Oil and war fears dominate markets heading into an uncertain Q2.
Financial markets enter the second quarter on shaky ground, highly sensitive to war-related headlines. This environment raises the risk of deeper equity declines, while the sharp selloff in bonds may start to attract buyers.
Even if the conflict eases soon, investors believe lasting damage to Middle East energy infrastructure and persistently high oil prices will weigh on growth and keep inflation elevated. That combination could further pressure stocks, though if growth fears begin to outweigh inflation concerns, bonds may stage a recovery.
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, noted that uncertainty dominates: it’s hard for investors to see beyond the constant flow of geopolitical news. While diversification into international equities remains appealing, she emphasized that U.S. exposure still plays an important role.
The Middle East conflict caps a volatile first quarter also shaped by U.S. geopolitical moves and rapid AI-driven disruption. Oil has been the standout performer, surging about 90% to above $100 a barrel, which has shaken bond markets and pushed expectations for higher interest rates.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters see oil ranging from $100 to $190 if supply disruptions persist, with an average forecast around $134. Meanwhile, prediction platform Polymarket assigns roughly a one-third chance of the war ending by mid-May and a 60% likelihood by late June.
Echoing the inflation surge of 2022, short-term borrowing costs in countries like Britain and Italy have jumped sharply, with notable moves also seen in U.S., German, and Japanese bonds. According to Societe Generale strategist Manish Kabra, the key factors for markets are how long the oil shock lasts and how central banks respond.
Since the war began, expectations for U.S. rate cuts this year have largely disappeared. In Europe and the UK, investors now anticipate rate hikes instead of easing, while hopes for monetary loosening in emerging markets have faded.
Kabra highlighted the upcoming U.S. Memorial Day weekend as a potential pressure point, as rising travel demand could intensify public and political focus on energy prices. Reflecting this backdrop, he has increased exposure to commodities in portfolios.
Bond markets have taken a hit, with yields rising sharply, but some investors see value emerging. Amundi, for instance, has added short-term eurozone government bonds and maintained positions in U.S. Treasuries, expecting central banks to look past short-term inflation spikes once the crisis stabilizes.
Similarly, Russell Investments sees bonds as more attractive than a few months ago and expects the dollar’s recent strength—up over 2% in March—to fade over time. Before the conflict, investors had been rotating away from U.S. assets, a trend that could resume if tensions ease.
Gold has slipped about 4% in March, as investors sell profitable positions to offset losses elsewhere, despite its usual role as an inflation hedge.
Equities, while initially resilient thanks to strong earnings and the tech sector, are now under pressure. The S&P 500 and Europe’s STOXX 600 have fallen roughly 9–10% from recent highs, and Japan’s Nikkei has dropped nearly 13% from its February peak.
Zurich Insurance strategist Guy Miller said his firm has shifted to an underweight position in equities as the economic outlook deteriorates. Data already points to weakening momentum, with U.S. consumer sentiment declining, German investor confidence dropping sharply, and business activity indicators hitting multi-month lows.
Although the U.S. benefits from a relatively strong economy and its status as an energy exporter, it is not immune. Prolonged high energy prices would still weigh on growth. The OECD has already warned that the global economy has been knocked off a stronger growth trajectory.
Miller concluded that this conflict differs from recent geopolitical shocks, which had limited market impact—this time, the implications for earnings, margins, and valuations are far more significant.
The Nasdaq 100 attempted to rally early in the week but ultimately tumbled as market fear intensified. With U.S. interest rates continuing to rise, the index has now broken below the key 23,800 level.
We are also trading below the 50-week EMA, and quite frankly, this is a market being driven almost entirely by the latest headlines out of Washington or Tehran, as they are causing sharp swings in interest rate expectations. As rates climb, they put significant pressure on technology stocks—and that dynamic is clearly playing out now.
USD/MXN
The U.S. dollar initially declined against the Mexican peso but has now formed a hammer pattern for the third consecutive week. This suggests the peso may start to weaken, and with U.S. interest rates rising, the negative swap cost associated with buying this pair becomes less of a burden.
On the upside, the 50-week EMA is near the 18.29 level, with the 18.50 area as the next likely target. If the pair pulls back from here, pay close attention to next week’s candlestick formation, as it would take significant downside pressure on the U.S. dollar to shift the trend. While the interest rate differential makes me hesitant to buy the dollar against the peso, the market still appears to be attempting a rally.
GBP/JPY
The British pound edged higher against the Japanese yen this week, and the key level to watch now is 214 yen, which has acted as a significant barrier. A break above this level would likely open the door for further upside.
Short-term pullbacks should continue to present buying opportunities, but there is always the risk of intervention from the Bank of Japan. That said, it’s likely a challenging task for the central bank to prevent the yen from weakening significantly. The ongoing interest rate differential will keep driving yen-denominated pairs higher, with the British pound standing out as a key beneficiary.
EUR/USD
The euro has been quite volatile this week, ultimately forming something resembling a shooting star. We remain within the same range that’s held for some time, suggesting little has fundamentally changed. However, a breakdown below the 1.14 level could trigger a sharp strengthening in the U.S. dollar.
In that scenario, you’d likely look to buy the U.S. dollar against most currencies—not just the euro—since this pair often acts as a broader signal for how the greenback performs globally. On the other hand, if we break to the upside and clear this past week’s highs, that would be broadly dollar-negative and could pave the way for a move toward the 1.18 level.
Gold (Xau/Usd)
Gold prices dropped sharply over the week but staged a solid recovery. A large weekly hammer is beginning to form, though a break above $4,600 is needed to confirm strong momentum. While there are many factors supporting further gains, rising U.S. interest rates remain a key headwind.
Rising interest rates remain a significant headwind, weighing on gold despite ongoing geopolitical tensions that could otherwise push prices higher. A drop below the $4,000 level would be severely bearish, but for now, the market appears to be attempting a rebound.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin has been a bit weak over the week, but it’s still holding within the same range. Given the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, that actually counts as relatively strong performance. The price is currently hovering around the 200-week EMA, a key long-term support level.
The $72,000 level continues to act as resistance, while $60,000 below remains a solid support zone. Overall, the market is quite choppy, but it appears to be in the process of building a base for a potential longer-term move.
Natural Gas
Natural gas declined over the week but has shown a modest rebound. However, it’s likely a market retail traders should avoid for now, as demand is dropping sharply.
While Europe may continue to face supply challenges, this is seasonally a weak period for natural gas demand. Many retail traders also overlook that they are trading a U.S.-centric contract. With spring approaching, the typical strategy is to sell into rallies once signs of exhaustion appear.
USD/CHF
The U.S. dollar has gained solid ground against the Swiss franc and is now approaching the key 0.80 level. A breakout above that point could trigger a stronger upward move, but for now, such a scenario seems unlikely.
In this environment, the outlook remains bullish, with interest rate differentials continuing to support further upside. The Swiss central bank also provides a form of downside protection, having signaled it may intervene if the franc strengthens excessively. This creates a favorable “buy on dips” setup, with the added benefit of earning daily swap.
Gold prices edged up slightly as attention remains on the escalating Iran conflict.
Gold edged higher in Asian trading on Monday, recovering modestly after a volatile week, as investors continued to watch the risk of escalation in the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran.
Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,509.51 an ounce, with futures rising similarly to $4,537.40. Prices had swung sharply last week, dropping to around $4,000 before rebounding close to $4,500 by Friday.
Other precious metals were mixed, with silver slipping 0.9% while platinum advanced 1.8%.
Analysts at OCBC said the recent rebound in gold appears largely technical, following a steep decline of about 20% since the conflict began. While bearish pressure is easing and momentum indicators are improving, they cautioned that the recovery may struggle to hold unless prices break above key resistance levels at $4,624, $4,670, and $4,850 per ounce.
They also warned that persistently high energy prices could keep inflation elevated, potentially pushing Treasury yields higher and creating a less favorable environment for gold in the near term.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remained high after Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched attacks on Israel over the weekend, raising fears of a broader conflict. Iran signaled readiness for a possible U.S. ground invasion, amid reports that Washington is deploying additional troops to the Middle East.
U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing and a deal could be near, though he provided no clear timeline and warned that further strikes on Tehran remain possible. He also recently extended a deadline for potential attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure into early April.
Oil prices jumped above $115 per barrel after Yemen’s Houthi forces launched an attack on Israel.
Oil prices surged in early Monday trading after Yemen’s Houthi group launched attacks on Israel, raising fears of a wider Middle East conflict.
Brent crude jumped 2.2% to $115.08 a barrel, after briefly spiking as high as $116.43.
The Iran-backed Houthis said they had fired multiple missiles at Israel and warned of further strikes, heightening concerns about escalation—especially given their ability to target vessels in the Red Sea.
Tensions remained elevated as Israeli forces struck targets in Tehran, while the U.S. deployed 3,500 troops to the region aboard the USS Tripoli. Iran also signaled readiness for a potential U.S. ground operation.
Oil prices have rallied sharply in March, with Brent up nearly 60%, driven by severe supply disruptions. Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a route carrying about 20% of global oil supply—has intensified market fears.
While Pakistan has offered to host talks between Washington and Tehran following a U.S. ceasefire proposal, Iran has largely rejected direct negotiations and accused the U.S. of preparing for a ground invasion.
Donald Trump said the United States and Iran have been engaging both directly and through intermediaries, describing Iran’s new leadership as “very reasonable,” even as additional U.S. troops deployed to the region and Tehran warned it would not accept humiliation.
His comments came after Pakistan announced it was preparing to host potential talks between Washington and Tehran aimed at ending the month-long conflict. Trump expressed confidence a deal could be reached, though he acknowledged uncertainty.
He also suggested that recent strikes, including one that killed Ali Khamenei, had effectively resulted in regime change, noting that the new leadership appears more pragmatic.
The conflict, which began with an Israeli strike on February 28, has spread across the Middle East, causing heavy casualties, disrupting global energy supplies, and weighing on the world economy.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said regional discussions had focused on ending the war and possibly hosting U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad, though it remains unclear if both sides will attend.
Meanwhile, Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf accused the U.S. of signaling negotiations while preparing for a potential ground invasion, warning that Iran would resist any attempt at forced submission.
The Pentagon has sent thousands of additional troops to the region, giving Washington the option of launching a ground offensive, while Israel has indicated it will continue strikes against Iranian military targets regardless of diplomatic efforts.
Recent Israeli airstrikes have targeted missile facilities and infrastructure across Iran, while Iranian retaliation has struck sites in Israel. The conflict has also disrupted key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices sharply higher and rattling global markets.
As tensions escalate, the arrival of more U.S. forces and the possibility of broader regional involvement—including attacks linked to Yemen’s Houthi forces—raise the risk of a prolonged and wider war.
Cuba seeks Vatican help to ease the U.S. oil embargo, the Washington Post reports.
Cuban officials have asked the Vatican to help convince the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump to relax its oil embargo, raising the issue in high-level meetings with Vatican representatives, including Pope Leo, the Washington Post reported Friday, citing sources familiar with the discussions.
Reuters said it could not immediately confirm the report, and the Vatican, the White House, and the Cuban government did not respond to requests for comment.
Havana and Washington began talks earlier this month as the embargo intensifies economic pressures on the Communist-led country, with some reports indicating the Trump administration may be aiming to remove President Miguel Díaz-Canel from power.
Oil edges higher but is still on track for its first weekly drop since the Iran conflict began.
Oil prices rose on Friday but were still set for their first weekly decline since February 9, after U.S. President Donald Trump extended a pause on strikes against Iran’s energy facilities. Despite the temporary restraint, investors remain cautious about the chances of a ceasefire in the month-long conflict.
Brent crude climbed $1.87 (1.73%) to $109.88 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $1.57 (1.66%) to $96.05. Even so, both benchmarks were down on the week, with Brent slipping 2.1% and WTI losing 2.3%, though they have surged sharply since the conflict began.
Analysts noted that oil markets are being driven more by the potential duration of the war than short-term headlines, warning that any damage to infrastructure or prolonged fighting could push prices significantly higher. Trump has extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face further action, while the U.S. continues to build up military presence in the region and considers targeting key Iranian oil assets.
Iran has rejected a U.S. proposal relayed via Pakistan, calling it unfair. Meanwhile, the conflict has removed around 11 million barrels per day from global supply, worsening an already tight market. Analysts say prices could fall quickly if tensions ease, but remain elevated overall—or even spike to $200—if the war drags on into late June, as countries increasingly draw on reserves and adjust demand.
Oil prices inched up as Iran considers the U.S. plan to end the conflict.
Oil prices in Asia inched up on Thursday as mixed signals over Middle East de-escalation kept markets cautious, while Iran considered a U.S. proposal to end the conflict.
By 20:31 ET (00:31 GMT), May Brent crude rose 0.8% to $103.02 per barrel and WTI crude gained 1% to $91.20, after both benchmarks dropped more than 2% in the previous session.
Traders assessed tentative diplomatic developments from Tehran, where authorities are said to be reviewing a U.S.-supported plan to stop the fighting. Although Iran has yet to accept the proposal, it has not rejected it outright, fueling guarded optimism for easing tensions.
However, uncertainty remains high. Tehran has denied direct talks with Washington and signaled that major disagreements persist, leaving markets uneasy and price moves relatively muted.
Crude has seen sharp swings in recent weeks as the conflict disrupted supply flows from the Gulf, a key global oil hub. Earlier this month, Brent surged past $119 per barrel on concerns over potential supply outages.
The Strait of Hormuz—through which about one-fifth of global oil passes—remains a critical risk point, with any disruption likely to drive prices higher.
On Wednesday, prices fell as reports of possible negotiations eased some geopolitical risk premium. Meanwhile, investors are monitoring Washington’s stance, as officials warn of tougher action if Iran fails to engage, adding further uncertainty to the outlook.
Gold holds steady as markets weigh conflicting signals over potential de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran.
Gold prices were mostly stable in Asian trading on Thursday as investors navigated mixed signals surrounding the Iran conflict, while Tehran continued to assess a U.S. proposal to end the war.
Spot gold edged up 0.1% to $4,509.06 an ounce by 22:57 ET (02:57 GMT), while U.S. gold futures declined 1.1% to $4,536.10.
Bullion had recovered earlier in the week, climbing back above $4,500 after a sharp pullback, supported by a weaker dollar and cautious optimism over potential U.S.-Iran diplomacy.
Still, gains were limited as uncertainty persisted. Iran is reviewing a U.S.-backed plan to halt hostilities, but unclear signals on whether talks will advance have kept investors wary.
Although Tehran has not formally accepted the proposal, it has avoided rejecting it outright, fueling guarded hopes for de-escalation. At the same time, Iran has denied direct negotiations with Washington and emphasized that key differences remain unresolved, leaving markets uneasy.
The U.S. has also warned of tougher action if Iran fails to engage constructively, adding another layer of tension.
Gold—traditionally a safe-haven asset—has shown unusual volatility in recent weeks. Prices dropped sharply earlier this month despite rising geopolitical risks, as expectations of prolonged high interest rates and a stronger dollar weighed on demand.
Movements in oil prices have also influenced sentiment. Rising crude has heightened inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that central banks may keep rates elevated, which tends to pressure non-yielding assets like gold.
Wider financial markets reflected a cautious tone, with investors seeking clearer direction on both geopolitical developments and global monetary policy.
Among other precious metals, silver gained 0.1% to $71.32 an ounce, while platinum slipped 0.6% to $1,918.60.
Gold is trying to stabilize, bolstered by a softer U.S. dollar and easing oil prices, as geopolitical tensions show signs of temporary relief. The recovery has pushed bullion toward the mid-$4,500s, suggesting the market is regaining balance after a recent sharp repricing.
The gold-to-silver ratio is drifting back toward the mid-60s, after dipping closer to 60 earlier in the week. This indicates relative strength in gold, while silver remains more sensitive to cyclical trends. Flows remain defensive, rather than shifting toward higher-beta exposure.
The context is key. Gold is emerging from a period where geopolitical stress failed to generate sustained demand. The prior repricing was driven by inflation expectations and policy positioning: energy-driven inflation reinforced bets on tighter monetary policy, strengthened the dollar, and increased the cost of holding non-yielding assets. This environment diverted capital away from bullion precisely when it would normally attract flows.
That dynamic still shapes the market. Gold is trading in a system where inflation, interest rates, and liquidity guide flows. As long as macro stress influences policy expectations, the market remains biased away from passive safe-haven accumulation.
From Macro Shock to Policy Transmission
Recent price action illustrates how macro shocks propagate. Geopolitical tensions and energy disruptions fed directly into inflation expectations, reinforcing the view that central banks might maintain restrictive conditions longer. This tightened financial conditions through both rates and a stronger dollar.
The current stabilization reflects a partial release of that pressure. A softer dollar and lower oil have eased the immediate inflation impulse, letting gold recover. The adjustment is mechanical—driven by easing inputs—without changing the broader framework guiding capital allocation.
Markets in this phase continuously reprice the balance between inflation risk and policy response. Gold follows this process rather than leading it. Until the transmission mechanism shifts away from inflation-driven tightening, rallies develop in a constrained environment, with selective liquidity and limited momentum.
The Renko Structure: Damage First, Stabilization Second
The Renko structure highlights the sequence clearly. Gold’s advance into the upper $4,500s reached an exhaustion zone just below $4,600, where upward momentum faded and supply returned. The subsequent pullback pierced the upper structure, removing the previous layer of support.
Gold is currently pivoting near $4,560, which now acts as a reference point within a rebalanced range rather than a springboard. Just below, $4,550–$4,551 offers the first structural support; a break here would reopen the path toward $4,525, where the structure becomes fragile and reactive.
Upside resistance begins at $4,575, the zone where the prior rebound failed, making it a test of market acceptance. Above that, the low $4,580s congestion band is the next checkpoint before the broader ceiling below $4,600, where sellers previously regained control.
The structure reflects a market stabilizing after lost momentum. Stabilization has formed, but directional strength has yet to reemerge.
Internal Conditions Show Compression
ECRO is at zero, signaling full compression: prior downside momentum is exhausted, and the current recovery has not generated a new expansion phase. Price is consolidating within defined boundaries as liquidity seeks alignment. Momentum indicators confirm the market has moved from active movement into controlled stabilization, limiting extensions beyond key levels without confirmation from broader flows.
What Needs to Change for a Stronger Move
A sustained rally requires continuity: maintaining the pivot near $4,560, reclaiming the upper barrier, and transforming it into acceptance. This would rebuild structure above prior rejection zones, signaling buyer commitment. Without this, rallies remain constrained, leaving the market exposed to renewed resistance at each layer.
Gold’s challenge lies in the environment rather than the metal itself. Inflation, interest rates, and liquidity continue to govern how demand translates into flows. Until that balance shifts, directional moves will struggle to sustain.
Final Read
Gold has exited active selling pressure and entered a stabilization phase. Both price structure and internal indicators reflect recalibration. Control has not yet returned. Compression dominates, keeping price within a range while direction remains unresolved. The next move will depend on flows re-establishing continuity above previously rejected levels.
Stabilization is present; leadership is still absent.
Oil dropping below $95 signals that the market is easing its worst-case fears, though the underlying structural risks remain. Gold’s rally points to a dovish policy interpretation, with traders anticipating a gentler rate path rather than outright risk hedging. Equities are following signs of easing inflation, yet the system remains fragile and sensitive to headlines.
Light at the End of the Tunnel
Asian traders woke to what feels like a soft glow at the tunnel’s end.
Oil has slipped below $95, equities are rising, yields are easing, and the dollar is softening as Washington’s diplomatic push starts to feel less like theatre and more like a path markets can tentatively follow. A 30-day ceasefire is no longer just a line in a briefing note—it’s starting to look like a trackable reality.
But this is still glow, not full daylight.
Crude’s decline reflects the market dimming emergency lighting, not declaring the room safe. Traders are beginning to believe the fire may be contained. The panic premium is being dialed down, not switched off. And that subtlety is where trades live or die.
The underlying system remains fragile. The Strait of Hormuz is still the key conduit for global energy flows, flickering under geopolitical tension. Confidence isn’t restored by proposals; it returns when flows run smoothly, insurance risks normalize, and barrels shed their geopolitical premium.
For now, the market follows the beam rather than stepping fully into the open.
Equities lean into it: S&P futures rise as lower oil feeds softer inflation expectations, easing central bank pressure and reopening the risk door. This is expectation-driven, not confirmation-driven.
Bond markets move cautiously. Yields edging lower show traders shading their views rather than rewriting them. The dollar eases as hedges trim slightly; risk isn’t gone, just loosened.
Gold, meanwhile, is stepping further into the light. It rallies not out of fear but in forward pricing—anticipating a softer policy path as oil slips and inflation pressures ease. Bullion is accumulating because markets see central banks nudged closer to a pivot.
This is the tell: when gold rises alongside equities and softer yields, the market isn’t just trading risk—it’s trading policy.
And yet, the barrel still holds the switch.
Even below $95, oil remains the power source for the macro grid. Diplomacy can dim the lights, but full power returns only when the physical system stabilizes. Gains won’t unwind because of negotiations; they unwind when supply chains flow, inventories rebuild, and disruption is no longer priced as baseline.
We’re not there yet.
What we see is the market cautiously walking toward the light: sentiment improving, volatility compressing, risk returning in measured doses. But the wiring underneath remains exposed.
The tunnel is visible. The way forward is clearer. But until that light becomes open sky, every step carries the risk of the switch being flipped back.
Gold rises on softer dollar, lower oil after U.S. proposal.
Gold surged more than 2% during Asian trading on Wednesday, driven by falling oil prices and a softer U.S. dollar. Hopes of a potential Middle East ceasefire eased inflation concerns, increasing the appeal of the metal.
Spot gold rose 2.3% to $4,577.55 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures climbed 4% to $4,611.70.
The move came as reports emerged that the United States had proposed a 15-point plan to Iran aimed at ending the conflict. President Donald Trump said negotiations were ongoing and noted that Iran appeared willing to reach a deal. However, Iranian officials denied any talks, underscoring continued uncertainty.
Oil prices dropped sharply after earlier gains fueled by supply disruption fears, with Brent crude slipping below $100 per barrel. This decline helped ease inflation expectations, reducing pressure on central banks to maintain high interest rates.
Lower energy prices also weighed on bond yields and the dollar—factors that typically support gold, which does not yield interest. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.2% in early trading.
Gold had recently been under pressure due to rising oil prices and bond yields, which strengthened the dollar and triggered a broader selloff in precious metals.
Despite the rebound, analysts warned that volatility is likely to continue, as markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East.
Elsewhere, silver jumped 3.3% to $73.60 per ounce, and platinum rose 2.2% to $1,977.60.
Oil drops on Middle East ceasefire hopes.
Oil prices dropped about 4% on Wednesday as hopes of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East raised expectations that supply disruptions from the region could ease. The decline followed reports that the U.S. had delivered a 15-point proposal to Iran aimed at ending the conflict.
Brent crude fell $4.89 (4.7%) to $99.60 per barrel, after hitting a low of $97.57. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped $3.54 (3.8%) to $88.81, touching as low as $86.72. This came after both benchmarks had surged nearly 5% in the previous session before trimming gains amid volatile trading.
Analysts said growing optimism over a ceasefire, along with profit-taking, pressured prices. However, uncertainty over whether negotiations will succeed continues to limit further declines.
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that progress was being made in talks with Iran, while sources confirmed Washington had sent a detailed settlement plan. Reports also suggested the U.S. is pushing for a temporary ceasefire to facilitate discussions, including measures such as curbing Iran’s nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite this, some analysts remain cautious, warning that Middle East developments will continue to drive price swings in the near term.
The conflict has severely disrupted oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for roughly one-fifth of global supply—creating what the International Energy Agency has described as an unprecedented supply shock.
Even if a ceasefire is reached and flows resume, experts say it is unclear how quickly production will fully recover, especially without confidence in a lasting agreement.
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts continue, with Pakistan offering to host negotiations, and Iran indicating that non-hostile vessels may pass through the Strait if coordinated with its authorities. Still, military activity in the region persists, and the U.S. is reportedly preparing to deploy additional troops.
To offset disruptions, Saudi Arabia has ramped up exports via its Red Sea Yanbu port to nearly 4 million barrels per day.
In the U.S., inventory data added further pressure to prices, with crude stocks rising by 2.35 million barrels, gasoline up 528,000 barrels, and distillates increasing by 1.39 million barrels last week, according to industry estimates.
Gold prices continued to decline for a tenth consecutive session during Asian trading on Tuesday, as Iran denied engaging in talks with the U.S. following Donald Trump’s decision to delay further strikes on Iranian energy facilities.
Spot gold dropped 1.3% to $4,351.28 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $4,399.59. The postponement of military action by Washington helped ease broader market tensions and led to a sharp decline in oil prices, allowing gold to recover slightly in the previous session.
Trump had earlier delayed plans to target Iran’s power grid, citing “productive” discussions, but Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf dismissed these claims, stating that no such talks had occurred—adding uncertainty to the situation.
Despite typically being seen as a safe-haven asset, gold has struggled amid shifting macroeconomic expectations. Rising energy costs have fueled concerns about persistent inflation, prompting investors to scale back expectations of interest rate cuts.
As a result, central banks—including the Federal Reserve—are now expected to maintain higher interest rates for longer, which tends to pressure gold prices since it does not generate interest.
Other precious metals also declined, with silver falling 1.5% and platinum slipping 0.3%.
Gold remains firmly under bearish pressure for another week, kicking off Monday with the yellow metal once again eyeing a test of the $4,300 level. The decline is driven by ongoing Middle East tensions, higher US Treasury yields, and a stronger US dollar.
Fundamental Analysis
Gold has fallen around 3% in Monday’s Asian session, building on last week’s decline of over 10% as key support levels continue to give way.
Gold: Escalating Gulf conflict lifts USD
Selling pressure on Gold remains relentless, with the metal weighed down by renewed strength in the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields as tensions in the Middle East enter a more intense phase.
Gold is facing a dual headwind, losing its appeal as a safe-haven asset while the US dollar strengthens in its role as the world’s primary reserve currency, making dollar-denominated bullion less attractive for foreign investors.
At the same time, the latest escalation in the conflict has reignited fears of energy supply disruptions and rising inflation, increasing expectations of global interest rate hikes. This has pushed US Treasury yields higher, further pressuring non-yielding assets like Gold.
International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol warned that global oil supply losses could reach 11 million barrels per day—surpassing the shocks of 1973 and 1979 combined.
Markets were further unsettled as tensions between the United States and Iran intensified, with threats exchanged over the Strait of Hormuz and potential strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure, while Israel signaled plans for extended military operations.
Israel’s military confirmed it has launched a large-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure in Tehran. Meanwhile, reports suggest the US is considering a ground operation aimed at seizing Iran’s Kharg Island.
If the confrontation between the US and Iran escalates further, broader market sell-offs could accelerate, potentially forcing investors to liquidate Gold positions to cover losses in other assets.
That said, Gold may see a temporary bounce if a technical rebound emerges, as the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains deeply oversold, below the 30 threshold.
Technical Analysis
The near-term outlook has shifted bearish as price breaks decisively below both the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), signaling a disruption of the prior uptrend structure. The 21-day SMA has turned lower and now acts as immediate resistance near $5,035, while the 50-day SMA, flattening around $4,970, further reinforces downside pressure.
Despite this pullback, the asset continues to trade well above the upward-sloping 100-day and 200-day SMAs, located near $4,610 and $4,095 respectively, suggesting the current move remains a sharp correction within a broader bullish trend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 26, entering oversold territory and indicating stretched bearish momentum.
In the short term, resistance is seen at the former breakdown zone around $4,650, followed by stronger resistance at the 21-day SMA near $5,035. A daily close above this level would be required to signal a potential stabilization and could open the door for a move toward the 50-day SMA near $4,970, helping to ease immediate downside risks.
On the downside, immediate support lies around $4,360. A break below this level would expose the psychological $4,300 area, where the rising 100-day SMA may attract dip-buying interest. Failure to hold this zone would shift focus toward the 200-day SMA near $4,095, which remains a critical support level for maintaining the longer-term bullish structure.
The euro climbed during the week, testing the 1.16 level as both central banks tied to this pair held their meetings. However, the key takeaway is that the Federal Reserve is likely to stay more hawkish than previously expected, increasing the chances that the US dollar will remain stronger for an extended period.
In fact, by Friday, even though the ECB had sounded somewhat more hawkish than expected, there were already signs of a shift in tone, with ECB member Villeroy indicating that a rate cut cannot be ruled out.
Ongoing concerns over energy in the European Union also add downside risk—if energy issues persist, economic growth could slow. As a result, the euro may remain under pressure, with any short-term rallies likely to face selling pressure.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver prices dropped sharply over the week as rising U.S. interest rates weighed on the market, and that trend is likely to continue. As the week comes to a close, the focus is on holding above the $70 level—a key round number that carries strong psychological importance and is being closely watched by traders.
If the market breaks below this support level, it could trigger significant selling pressure, potentially driving prices toward $65, and over the longer term, even down to $50.
Overall, this is a market that may be hard to navigate, and it’s unlikely to see consistent upward momentum unless U.S. interest rates begin to stabilize.
Gold (XAU/USD)
The gold market is likely to behave similarly to silver, with the key difference being its safe-haven appeal. Because of that, gold may outperform silver—and frankly, that’s what I expect to happen.
That said, outperformance is relative, and this week’s candlestick looks quite weak. I’d be watching the 4,500 level closely, with the 4,400 area below it acting as additional support.
Any rally from here is likely to face selling pressure sooner or later, with 5,000 serving as a near-term ceiling. It’s only when U.S. interest rates fall meaningfully that gold can resume a stronger upward move. Still, looking at the longer-term charts, gold could drop another 1,000 and remain within a broader uptrend.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin initially attempted a breakout during the week but is having trouble holding above the 72,000 level. Still, it remains within a formation that suggests a possible reversal, although—like other markets—the outcome will largely depend on U.S. interest rates.
If interest rates remain exceptionally high, it’s hard to see Bitcoin—being a high-risk asset—performing strongly in that environment.
That said, I’m not expecting Bitcoin to collapse, but any upward move is likely to be gradual rather than sharp. If the trend is positive, it will probably be more of a slow grind higher than a rapid rally.
GBP/USD
The British pound climbed over the week, reaching up to test the key 1.35 level before pulling back. Overall, the market is likely to remain quite volatile, with the 1.3250 level acting as a support zone.
It seems that traders are continuing to sell the British pound whenever signs of exhaustion appear, especially as ongoing energy concerns in the United Kingdom weigh on sentiment.
There is a strong possibility that the US dollar could strengthen against the pound, pushing this pair lower. If the price falls below the 1.32 level, it may head toward the 200-week EMA, which is currently around 1.30. I have little interest in buying the pound at the moment, even though it may still perform better than several of its peers against the US dollar.
USD/CHF
The US dollar is trading choppily against the Swiss franc, hovering around the 0.79 level. If the price manages to break above this week’s high, it could pave the way for a move toward the 0.81 level.
If the price breaks below this week’s low, the market could decline toward the 0.77 level. Overall, this is likely to remain a choppy and noisy environment.
With US interest rates rising, the market tends to favor safe-haven flows, while the Swiss National Bank may step in if the franc strengthens excessively. Given these opposing forces, I expect the pair to eventually move higher.
NASDAQ 100
The Nasdaq 100 attempted to move higher during the week but encountered resistance around the 25,000 level. After reversing and showing weakness, the market now appears to be testing the 23,800 level.
Given this situation, the market appears vulnerable to a deeper downside move. The 50-week EMA sits near the 23,800 level, and a break below that could trigger significant selling pressure. While short-term bounces may occur, a sustained move above 25,000 would be needed for buyers to regain control and target higher levels. For now, elevated interest rates continue to weigh on overall risk sentiment.
DAX
In Germany, the DAX initially attempted to rally but has since broken down decisively, appearing to lose key support. Rising German interest rates, combined with a broader risk-off environment and ongoing energy challenges across Europe, continue to heavily influence the market’s direction.
With liquefied natural gas and oil continuing to pose challenges, this market will likely need time to establish support at lower levels. Before that happens, however, it could potentially decline toward the 20,000 mark.
For years, financial elites have brushed off gold as an unproductive asset—an inert yellow metal that generates no income and seems out of place in a fast-moving, digital economy. But by 2026, that long-standing view is beginning to lose credibility.
As the image of the “almighty U.S. dollar” starts to crack under the weight of a federal deficit exceeding $38 trillion—and still rising uncontrollably—gold is no longer just a hedge. It is increasingly seen as a primary escape route from a global era of fiscal excess.
The strongest argument for gold today doesn’t lie in consumer demand like jewelry, but in central bank behavior. Since the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine, a clear message has emerged. Many countries, especially in the Global South and BRICS+, are growing wary of holding U.S. Treasury assets that can be restricted or liquidated instantly.
This shift goes beyond simple de-dollarization—it signals a deep, structural reallocation of global capital. When central banks accumulate gold at record levels, they are not chasing short-term gains; they are securing financial independence. Gold stands apart as the only major asset that is not someone else’s liability.
Meanwhile, sovereign debt dynamics have moved from troubling to almost absurd. With debt-to-GDP ratios at extreme levels, major economies are stuck in a dilemma: raising interest rates enough to curb inflation risks making their debt burdens unmanageable.
As a result, real interest rates are likely to remain low or even negative—conditions that have historically favored gold. When inflation erodes the returns of supposedly “safe” government bonds, gold’s lack of yield becomes far less of a disadvantage and even appealing.
There’s a certain irony in this moment. As technology enables the creation of endless digital assets and AI-generated content, tangible assets like gold are gaining renewed appeal among both institutional and individual investors. Governments can expand debt or issue digital currencies at will, and AI can produce limitless synthetic content—but gold remains constrained by physical reality.
It cannot be created out of thin air. Annual mine production increases global supply by only about 1.5% to 2%, and the total amount of gold ever mined—around 212,000 tons—would fill just a few Olympic-sized swimming pools.
In a world marked by uncertainty, where even truth feels scarce, investors are gravitating toward something real—an asset that requires human effort, heavy machinery, and time to produce, and one that has consistently preserved value throughout history.
The bullish case for gold is not based solely on doomsday fears. It reflects a deeper issue: the erosion of sound financial systems, manageable debt levels, and trust in institutions. As that trust weakens, gold tends to rise.
At roughly $5,060 per ounce, gold’s recent performance—illustrated through instruments like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)—shows a powerful surge, supported by strong volume and capital inflows. This movement suggests more than simple hedging; it indicates a strategic shift toward safeguarding wealth against potential systemic shocks.
Interestingly, while technical analysts might interpret the chart as signaling a sell, such a view overlooks a key imbalance: even the largest corporations, despite their substantial cash reserves, are dwarfed by the scale of global sovereign debt.
The scale of the debt-versus-gold imbalance is striking. Companies in the S&P 500 collectively hold an estimated $2.5 to $3 trillion in cash and equivalents, according to J.P. Morgan. While that figure appears substantial, it represents just about 5% of the total debt owed by the G7 economies.
The G7—comprising the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, along with the broader European Union—sits at the center of the global financial system. The U.S. alone, with an economy valued at roughly $30–32 trillion, accounts for about 26% of global GDP, which the IMF estimates at $123.6 trillion in 2026.
Yet the U.S. national debt has climbed to $38.87 trillion as of March 2026 and continues to grow at a pace of around $7 billion per day. At this trajectory, it is expected to surpass $40 trillion within the year.
This has pushed the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio to approximately 123%, meaning federal debt exceeds the size of the entire economy by 23%. Such levels are near post–World War II highs and far above historical norms—an indication of growing fiscal strain. Despite this, there appears to be little political momentum to curb spending, with policymakers instead signaling further expansion.
Looking beyond the U.S., the broader picture is equally concerning. Combined sovereign debt across G7 nations now stands at roughly $65 trillion, with no coordinated effort to rein in deficits or reduce spending.
If this trajectory continues, the long-term consequences for fiat currencies could be severe. A system increasingly burdened by unsustainable debt risks eventual disruption, potentially leading to a profound global financial reset. In such a scenario, gold could continue its upward trajectory, with projections pointing toward $6,000 per ounce as a plausible next milestone.
Donald Trump on Saturday warned that the United States would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran fails to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours—marking a sharp escalation just a day after suggesting the war might wind down. Posting on social media, Trump set a firm deadline and threatened to begin strikes with Iran’s largest facilities, signaling a potential expansion of U.S. targets to include civilian infrastructure.
The near shutdown of the strait—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies pass—has already disrupted shipping and driven energy prices sharply higher, with European gas prices jumping as much as 35% last week. In response, Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya warned it would retaliate against U.S. energy, IT, and desalination infrastructure across the region if attacked.
Tensions intensified further after Iran struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City—a key global LNG hub—causing damage expected to take years to repair. Meanwhile, the conflict has expanded militarily, with Iran reportedly launching long-range missiles for the first time, including strikes targeting the U.S.-British base at Diego Garcia, raising concerns about threats extending as far as Europe.
The war, now in its fourth week, has killed more than 2,000 people and continues to escalate unpredictably. Trump’s shifting rhetoric—from de-escalation to issuing a 48-hour ultimatum—has left allies uncertain, while rising energy costs and inflation are increasing domestic pressure in the U.S. ahead of upcoming elections.
On the ground, fighting continues between Iran and Israel. Iranian missile strikes hit southern Israeli cities, injuring dozens, while Israeli forces carried out retaliatory strikes in Tehran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue military operations, describing the situation as a critical moment in the country’s fight for its future.
War, oil shocks, and market turbulence would typically create ideal conditions for gold to rally—yet prices have declined sharply. The explanation isn’t about a lack of fear, but rather the underlying mechanics of global reserve flows.
For years, the narrative was straightforward: gold and silver climbed as investors sought protection from loose monetary policy, fiscal imbalances, and a weakening dollar. Central banks—from Beijing to Riyadh—were steadily shifting away from U.S. Treasuries and into bullion, reinforcing a strong long-term bullish case for precious metals.
Then, within just three weeks, the trend reversed sharply. Gold dropped 14%, while silver plunged an even steeper 28%. On the surface, the timing seems counterintuitive. Global conflict is intensifying, oil markets are under stress, and volatility is rising. Although the dollar has strengthened after hitting multi-year lows, these conditions would typically support precious metals. Yet instead of rallying, they are falling sharply.
The explanation, once understood, is both surprising and illuminating: gold is no longer trading as a traditional “safe-haven” asset. Instead, it is responding to global reserve flows—and at the moment, those flows are moving in reverse.
A Decade of Currency Dilution
To understand gold’s long-term rise, it’s essential to recognize the two key drivers behind its bull case. The first is monetary debasement. Since the 2008 financial crisis—intensifying during the pandemic—central banks across developed economies have expanded their balance sheets on an unprecedented scale. Money supply has outpaced economic output, real interest rates have turned negative, and inflation has ultimately followed.
In such an environment, hard assets—especially gold and silver—offered something increasingly rare: a store of value that cannot be created at will. Both institutional and retail investors funneled capital into precious metals as protection against the gradual erosion of purchasing power. The logic was straightforward: if fiat currencies are being diluted, hold assets that cannot be.
“Gold evolved from a traditional safe haven into a preferred reserve asset—a structural shift that changed both the profile of buyers and their motivations.”
The second pillar supporting gold’s rise was de-dollarization. The 2022 move by Washington and Brussels to freeze Russia’s foreign reserves sent a clear signal to surplus nations worldwide: dollar-based assets, including Treasuries, carry political risk. Gold, by contrast, does not.
The reaction was both rapid and unprecedented. Central banks—particularly across the Global South and the Gulf—accelerated gold purchases to levels not seen in decades. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and China emerged as major buyers. This was not speculative demand, but a strategic shift in sovereign asset allocation—reducing reliance on the dollar and increasing exposure to an asset with no counterparty risk.
The Hormuz Shock
The conflict with Iran—particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—has rapidly disrupted this dynamic. As a critical artery of the global oil market, roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum flows through the strait each day. When that passage is constrained, the impact goes beyond higher oil prices—it directly squeezes the revenue streams of the very countries that had been the most consistent marginal buyers of gold.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait manage their sovereign wealth and reserves largely through petrodollar surpluses. When oil revenues fall sharply—as they do when a critical shipping route is disrupted—those surpluses shrink or vanish. The consequence is clear: the marginal buyer of gold steps back, or in some cases becomes a forced seller, liquidating assets to meet domestic fiscal needs.
China introduces an additional layer of pressure. As the world’s largest oil importer, it is now facing a meaningful terms-of-trade shock. Slower economic growth translates into reduced trade surpluses, which in turn limits reserve accumulation. With fewer reserves being built, demand weakens for gold—the preferred alternative reserve asset.
Why Silver Is Falling More Sharply
Silver’s decline has been nearly twice as severe as gold’s, reflecting its dual role. Unlike gold, which is primarily a monetary asset, silver is heavily tied to industrial demand—electronics, solar panels, electric vehicles, and semiconductors account for roughly half of its usage.
When global growth expectations deteriorate quickly, industrial demand contracts just as rapidly. As a result, silver is hit on two fronts: declining reserve demand and weakening industrial consumption. The same slowdown that compresses Gulf surpluses also dampens manufacturing activity, amplifying the downside.
The Paradox of Geopolitical Precious Metals
The common belief that gold thrives during geopolitical turmoil is not incorrect—but it is incomplete. Gold performs best in crises where capital seeks safety and liquidity flows toward hard assets. The current Iran-related shock, however, is different: it disrupts the underlying flow of global capital that has been supporting gold’s long-term rally.
This is the core paradox. Gold is not responding to headlines—it is reacting to balance sheets, particularly the weakening financial positions of sovereign buyers that have driven demand in recent years. Fear is abundant, but in this case, it is not the primary driver of price action.
“In the short term, gold follows liquidity and reserve flows—not headlines or fear. The long-term bull case remains intact, but the marginal buyer has stepped away.”
Momentum, Retail, and the Unwind
Prior to the conflict, precious metals had increasingly taken on the characteristics of momentum trades. Although the underlying drivers—monetary debasement, de-dollarization, and central bank demand—remained intact, they also drew in a more speculative wave of capital. Retail investors, propelled by sustained price gains, social media influence, ETF inflows, and commission-free trading, rapidly piled into gold and silver.
Gold ETFs experienced some of their strongest inflows in the months leading up to the conflict, while silver—more affordable and volatile—became a favorite among momentum-driven traders seeking outsized returns.
This backdrop helps explain the severity of the current selloff. When prices are supported not only by fundamentals but also by a momentum premium, reversals tend to be abrupt. As that premium unwinds, selling pressure intensifies. Notably, the Gold Trust ETF has just posted its largest monthly outflow since April 2013, highlighting how quickly market sentiment can reverse.
The same investors who drove prices higher often operate with tight stop-losses, leverage, and short investment horizons. As the trend reversed, this momentum-driven crowd unwound positions just as quickly as it had built them, magnifying the decline far beyond what fundamentals alone would justify. The Hormuz shock may have sparked the selloff, but the real accelerant was the excess speculation that had built up during the rally.
Outlook: The Structural Case Remains—For Now
Nothing in the current environment fundamentally undermines the long-term case for gold. Monetary debasement persists, and de-dollarization remains a gradual, multi-decade shift rather than a short-term trade. Central banks are unlikely to abandon gold accumulation strategies due to temporary revenue pressures. As conditions stabilize—oil flows normalize, China regains momentum, and GCC surpluses recover—the structural demand for gold is likely to return.
However, markets do not operate on long-term narratives in the near term. They respond to immediate flows—who is buying and who is selling right now. At present, the key marginal buyers are facing financial constraints. More than any geopolitical storyline, this explains gold’s decline in an environment that would typically support higher prices.
For investors, the takeaway is both humbling and instructive: understanding an asset’s long-term drivers does not guarantee insight into its short-term movements. Gold may remain a form of sound money, but like all assets, it is still influenced by shifts in global liquidity—and at the moment, that liquidity is receding.
On Saturday, Israel struck targets in Iran and Beirut as the U.S. sent thousands more Marines to the Middle East. President Donald Trump criticized NATO allies as “cowards” for hesitating to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the U.S. and Israel began attacks on Iran on February 28, over 2,000 people have died, and Americans are growing concerned the conflict could expand further in its fourth week. Israel said it targeted Hezbollah in Beirut while intensifying airstrikes against Iran-backed militias, marking the deadliest spillover since Hezbollah fired on Israel on March 2. Israel also launched new attacks on Tehran.
Key energy infrastructure in Iran and the Gulf has been hit, pushing oil prices up 50%, prompting companies like United Airlines to cut planned flights by 5% due to expected prolonged high fuel costs. The Strait of Hormuz, critical for a fifth of global oil and LNG, is largely closed to shipping. Allies have pledged “appropriate efforts” to ensure safe passage, but Germany and France insist fighting must stop first. Iran indicated it will allow Japanese-related vessels to pass.
To ease supply, the U.S. will temporarily waive sanctions to sell 140 million barrels of Iranian oil stranded by the conflict. In Beirut, Israel issued evacuation warnings before its attacks; over 1,000 people have been killed and more than a million displaced.
Israel launched multiple airstrikes on Tehran and central Iran, while Iran fired missiles in retaliation. As Muslims celebrated Eid al-Fitr and Iranians observed Nowruz, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei praised unity and resistance, raising questions about his condition following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the early days of the war.
The U.S. plans to deploy 2,500 Marines with the amphibious ship Boxer, though the mission remains unclear. Polls show nearly two-thirds of Americans expect a large-scale U.S. ground war, yet only 7% support it. No decision has been made on deploying troops into Iran, though potential targets could include Iran’s coast or Kharg Island oil facilities. Trump has said the U.S. is close to achieving its goals of weakening Iran’s military and halting its nuclear ambitions and may scale back military operations.
Gold prices continue to drift lower after breaking the 50-day moving average. Traditionally a safe haven in times of uncertainty, the “fog of war” now keeps gold in focus. I plan to maintain my sizable gold position, supported by strong projected sales and earnings from my gold stocks. Other commodities are also soft, reflecting fears of slower global growth.
Geopolitical tensions remain high. On Wednesday, President Trump warned that if Iran continues targeting Gulf energy infrastructure, the U.S. would strike the South Pars Gas Field with unprecedented force. Until hostilities subside and shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, energy-driven inflation is likely to persist.
The March Producer Price Index (PPI) report added to concerns. Wholesale food and energy prices are expected to rise sharply due to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure. In February, the PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, with wholesale food up 2.4% and energy 2.3%. Prices for final demand goods rose 1.1%, and wholesale service costs increased 0.5%.
The FOMC highlighted labor market weakness, noting that job gains remain low. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the private sector is not creating sufficient jobs. The “dot plot” signals one expected interest rate cut, though some FOMC members anticipate more. The statement avoided calling war-related inflation transitory, instead noting that the Middle East’s impact on the U.S. economy is “uncertain,” while economic activity continues at a solid pace and inflation remains elevated.
The housing market showed weakness as well. January new home sales fell 17.6% to an annual pace of 587,000—the slowest since 2022—likely influenced by severe winter weather. Sales plunged nearly 45% in the Northeast and about 34% in the Midwest. A sluggish housing market is expected to weigh on GDP growth.
On the tech side, data center demand remains strong. Micron Technology (MU) reported a 196.3% year-on-year revenue jump to $23.86 billion in its latest quarter, while earnings soared 682.1% to $12.20 per share from $1.20 a year ago. The company beat revenue expectations by 21.7% and earnings by 38.6%, underscoring robust demand for fast memory chips.
The market is taking a breather on recent headlines, but the fundamental energy system is still disrupted, constrained, and far from normal. Interruptions in LNG and damage to infrastructure have turned what might have been a temporary flow shock into a long-term supply issue, likely keeping both oil and LNG prices elevated. Current relief rallies are fueled by short-term positioning and changing narratives rather than a lasting recovery, making this market one to trade actively rather than commit to for the long term.
The market is taking a breather. Netanyahu’s comments—talking about securing the Strait and neutralizing Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities—have soothed sentiment, suggesting the conflict might burn out sooner than feared. But even if the geopolitical chapter closes, the energy system doesn’t reset instantly. Repairing refineries, export terminals, and LNG infrastructure takes time, and confidence in shipping lanes cannot be rebuilt with statements alone. Brent remains above $105; calm on the surface, but the underlying disruption persists.
Oil dipped, sparking reflex rallies in equities, bonds, and volatility, as markets embraced the idea that the Strait might reopen and Iran’s enrichment and missile capacities are weakened. Relief rallies are thus more about positioning than a lasting recovery. Traders are playing the tape, not committing to the story.
The Gulf’s energy infrastructure has been directly hit. LNG outages aren’t temporary—they’re structural, keeping prices elevated even after headlines fade. The IRGC still has enough capability to cause damage, so the market remains tight. Brent dropping below $90 next month seems overly optimistic; elevated oil prices could persist for months.
Equities face a dilemma: hoping for normalization while input costs remain high and central banks stay firm. The bounce from lows is likely headline-driven short covering, not genuine repricing of risk.
Complicating matters, traders are entering one of the largest options expiries ever. With narratives unstable, any headline can trigger outsized moves as positioning resets in real time. Oil charts reflect this chaos: Brent spiked toward $119 on export rumors, then fell below $110 when denied, then drifted lower again on de-escalation headlines. It’s a market still on edge.
Yes, volatility eased, and the market can breathe for now. But the barrel remembers the fire, and the underlying disruptions remain.
What would happen if the U.S. stopped exporting WTI and Brent crude became available only through bids?
Yesterday, the Brent-WTI spread was the headline, and it set the tone for a conversation I had with a few veteran oil traders just before Washington denied any plans to ban U.S. crude exports. These are the people who’ve seen enough market cycles to distinguish a normal move from a market that’s beginning to think. As we ran through tail-risk scenarios, the discussion drifted into territory that felt increasingly uncomfortable.
This wasn’t the usual chatter about positioning, freight, or refinery runs. It was the kind of conversation where the scenario branches began to converge on outcomes that felt plausible—but alarming. I’m not sharing this to shock anyone, but it’s worth understanding what was being analyzed in the world of constant motion we call capital markets. The Brent-WTI blowout wasn’t just a price swing; it was the market quietly testing what could happen if the system itself started to fragment.
On the surface, it looked like a classic geopolitical squeeze: Middle East disruptions lifted Brent, while rising U.S. output weighed on WTI. Beneath the surface, though, a more structural concern emerged. What if the U.S. pulled back—by limiting exports or scaling down its role as the security backstop keeping energy flowing? The mechanics were simple but severe. WTI, being inland, depends on pipelines, storage, and export capacity. Brent, by contrast, is seaborne and priced assuming secure transit. As long as U.S. exports flowed, the arbitrage held, helping balance the global market. But if that valve closed even partially, the market effectively split in two.
Inside the U.S., crude would back up, storage would fill, refinery constraints would bite, and WTI would be forced to clear at a deeper discount. Outside the U.S., the opposite occurred: removing a few million barrels of flexible exports from a system already strained by Middle East risk made every waterborne barrel more valuable. Brent didn’t just rise from lost supply—it repriced the risk of getting oil from point A to point B. Layer in talk of U.S. troop withdrawals and reduced global security commitments, and the market started pricing something far more structural. This wasn’t about barrels alone; it was about the security architecture that enabled their movement.
Here’s where the real asymmetry appeared: the U.S. risked sitting on cheap, trapped crude, while Europe and Asia were forced into a bidding war for mobile supply at a time when mobility was less reliable. Asia felt it first through direct dependence on Middle East flows, Europe through prices and products—but both ended up paying for a world where oil wasn’t just produced, it was contested. The Brent-WTI spread ceased to be a simple arbitrage signal and became a stress indicator for a market increasingly pricing a disconnect between where oil sits and where it can actually go.
In that scenario, oil stops trading like a commodity and starts trading like a map of power: Brent becomes insured crude, WTI becomes stranded crude, and the rest of the world pays a premium for access.
Buying oil in Asia or jet fuel in Europe right now comes at record prices. Physical markets—where oil is traded as cargo on ships, railcars, or in storage—have surged faster than futures markets, as refiners and traders scramble to fill the massive supply gap caused by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.
The disruption, triggered by attacks on oil and gas facilities across the Middle East, is the largest ever in global energy, with Iran restricting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for 20% of the world’s oil. Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial warned that even if the strait reopens, logistics challenges will delay a supply recovery.
Oil, gas, and refined products are vital for transport, shipping, and manufacturing, so supply shocks can heavily impact economies and demand for months or even years. Gulf production cuts and export halts have removed roughly 12 million barrels per day—about 12% of global daily demand—which are hard to replace, according to Petro-Logistics.
Physical Market Spike While futures prices have risen steadily since late February, physical cargo prices have surged even more. Brent crude briefly hit $119 per barrel, later settling near $109, while Middle East Dubai crude reached a record $166.80. Goldman Sachs predicts Brent could surpass its 2008 peak of $147.50 if outages continue. European and African crude cargoes hit $120, and even previously discounted Russian barrels now exceed $100.
The Mediterranean market, calm until early this week, has risen as expectations for a quick Hormuz reopening fade. David Jorbenaze of ICIS noted that spot price differentials reveal a much tighter market than headline prices suggest.
Seeking Sour Crude Refiners are turning to substitutes for Middle Eastern medium-density, high-sulphur “sour” crude. Russian Urals crude, long discounted due to sanctions, recently traded above Brent in India for the first time. Norwegian Johan Sverdrup crude reached an $11.30 premium to Brent. U.S. crude prices rose, with Mars Sour in the Gulf of Mexico hitting $107.53, about $6 above U.S. crude, reflecting its similarity to Middle Eastern oil.
Transport fuels have climbed even higher: European jet fuel hit around $220 per barrel, diesel exceeded $200, and Asian gasoil margins topped $60 per barrel. Measures such as the IEA’s release of 400 million strategic barrels and U.S. sanction waivers for Russian oil may not suffice. As Jorbenaze emphasized, “The market ultimately runs on barrels moving, not barrels being announced.”
Oil slips as the U.S. and allies move to ease supply constraints and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices dipped on Friday as European nations and Japan offered to help secure safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. outlined measures to boost supply.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated sanctions on Iranian oil stuck on tankers could soon be lifted, and further releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve were possible. Brent fell $1.36 (1.3%) to $107.29 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped $1.92 (2.0%) to $94.22.
Despite Friday’s decline, Brent is on track for a nearly 4% weekly gain after Iran targeted Gulf energy facilities, forcing production cuts. WTI, however, is set for its first weekly drop in five weeks, down more than 4%.
Markets eased some “war premiums” as world leaders signaled restraint, though analysts warn that full recovery of tanker logistics through Hormuz could take time. Any new attacks or disruptions could push prices higher, while diplomatic engagement may limit spikes and unwind the war premium.
Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan issued a joint statement offering assistance to ensure safe passage through Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil and LNG flows.
U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu not to strike Iranian energy facilities again. Meanwhile, North Dakota plans to increase crude output as wells restart and winter restrictions lift, though the pace will depend on oil prices and existing budgets.
Oil exports and production in the Middle East have plunged, wiping out more than 7–10 million barrels per day from global supply and triggering a significant physical shortage.
With supply tight and storage capacity limited, prices could climb to $150–$200+ per barrel, and some analysts caution that prolonged disruptions may drive even sharper spikes.
Even if the conflict subsides, a recovery is likely to be gradual, and any short-term relief won’t fully make up for the deficit, keeping prices elevated.
Just a month ago, any analyst predicting oil could surge to $200 per barrel would have been dismissed outright. Now, that scenario is increasingly being taken seriously—and for good reason.
Middle Eastern oil and fuel exports, which averaged over 25 million barrels per day in February, have plunged by nearly two-thirds by mid-March, according to data from Kpler and Vortexa. Even more concerning is production: across the region, output is being slashed, with wells not easily or quickly restarted. Limited storage is forcing producers to cut supply, and in some cases, oil is being stored offshore rather than delivered to buyers. Altogether, roughly a fifth of global oil supply is severely disrupted, and even if the conflict ended immediately, recovery would take time.
Production cuts are substantial: Iraq alone has reduced output by around 2.9 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia has cut between 2 and 2.5 million. The UAE and Kuwait have also made significant reductions, bringing total lost supply to over 7 million barrels daily. This stands in stark contrast to earlier expectations from the International Energy Agency, which had forecast a surplus this year. Instead, as much as 10 million barrels per day may now be offline.
With physical supply constrained, the market has little ability to respond to demand, pushing prices sharply higher and making them slow to fall even if conditions improve. Some analysts now see $150 oil as a baseline, with $200 or higher no longer out of the question. Others warn that prices could spike even further in a sustained shortage, as commodity markets tend to move dramatically under such conditions.
That said, not all forecasts are bullish. Some expect prices to retreat below $100 for Brent and $90 for WTI if the conflict ends quickly—though there are few signs of that happening. Even in a best-case scenario, restarting production would take months, meaning prices would likely remain elevated due to lingering supply constraints.
Temporary relief has come from increased availability of sanctioned Russian oil, with nearly 200 million barrels currently in transit globally. However, this is unlikely to fully offset the shortfall. Meanwhile, measures like China restricting fuel exports and cutting refining rates, or the potential restart of limited pipeline flows from Iraq and Kurdistan, are unlikely to significantly ease the imbalance.
What once seemed unthinkable—a $200 oil price—is now within the realm of possibility. Still, given the economic strain such levels would impose worldwide, there is hope that de-escalation efforts may eventually prevent the most extreme outcomes.
Trump is expected to pressure Japan to support the Iran conflict during a White House meeting.
Donald Trump is expected to use a White House meeting with Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, to seek support for the war against Iran, putting Tokyo in a difficult position as it weighs how much assistance it can offer.
Although Trump has criticized allies for their limited backing of the U.S.-Israeli campaign—while also claiming the U.S. does not need help—he is still urging partners to contribute naval forces to clear mines and protect tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely disrupted during the conflict.
The visit, originally intended to reinforce long-standing U.S.-Japan ties, has become more complicated. While Takaichi has advocated for a stronger military posture at home, public opposition to the Iran war has so far prevented Japan from committing to operations in the Gulf.
Meanwhile, other U.S. allies, including Germany, Italy, and Spain, have declined to join any mission in the region, frustrating Trump. Takaichi has stated that Japan has not received a formal request but is reviewing what actions might be possible within constitutional limits.
Analysts note the meeting could prove challenging for Takaichi, who had hoped to influence Trump’s approach to Asia policy—particularly regarding China—but may instead have to respond to immediate demands related to the Middle East.
Japan is also preparing for potential U.S. requests to help produce or co-develop missiles to replenish American stockpiles depleted by conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. At the same time, Tokyo’s diplomatic ties with Iran could offer a channel for mediation, though past efforts have failed.
In addition, Takaichi is expected to express Japan’s intention to join the “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative and announce new investments in the U.S., potentially including tens of billions of dollars in sectors such as energy and critical minerals, building on earlier commitments tied to easing trade tensions.
Oil prices climb after Iran launches attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East.
Oil prices climbed on Thursday, with Brent crude surging by as much as $5 per barrel after Iran launched attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East in response to a strike on the South Pars gas field—marking a significant escalation in its conflict with the United States and Israel. By 0400 GMT, Brent futures had gained $4.66, or 4.3%, to $112.04 a barrel, after earlier peaking at $112.86. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 96 cents, or 1%, to $97.28, having previously jumped more than $3. Brent had already advanced 3.8% on Wednesday, while WTI ended nearly unchanged.
WTI has been trading at its widest discount to Brent in over a decade, driven by releases from U.S. strategic reserves and elevated shipping costs, while renewed strikes on Middle Eastern energy assets have lent additional support to Brent. Analysts noted that the intensifying conflict—targeted attacks on oil infrastructure and the loss of Iranian leadership—could lead to prolonged supply disruptions. They also pointed to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady, accompanied by a hawkish outlook, as another factor heightening market concerns amid wartime conditions.
Further escalating tensions, QatarEnergy reported significant damage to its Ras Laffan LNG hub following Iranian missile strikes, while Saudi Arabia said it intercepted ballistic missiles and a drone targeting its gas facilities. Iran had issued evacuation warnings ahead of strikes on oil sites in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, retaliating for earlier attacks on its own facilities in South Pars and Asaluyeh.
South Pars, part of the world’s largest natural gas field shared between Iran and Qatar, was hit in an attack attributed to Israel, though U.S. and Qatari involvement was denied by President Donald Trump. He warned that the U.S. would respond if Iran targeted Qatar and said Israel would refrain from further strikes unless provoked.
Market analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated as tensions show no signs of easing and the Strait of Hormuz remains at risk of disruption. Reports also suggest the U.S. is considering deploying additional troops to the region, with options including securing tanker routes through the Strait—potentially involving both naval and air forces, and possibly ground troops if necessary.
Mainstream media reports that the dollar is strengthening, attributing the move to rising oil prices. But is that explanation accurate?
The dollar’s strength is more likely tied to the sharp downturn in an overvalued U.S. stock market.
As equities slide, investors appear to be retreating into cash, driving demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, both major political parties continue to present the stock market as a key symbol of economic health, while commentators push for aggressive rate cuts—even as inflation risks remain elevated.
Such cuts could erode returns for retirees and savers, but may help prop up equities and prevent a collapse reminiscent of 1929, while also enabling the government to take on significantly more debt.
A broader perspective challenges the idea of a strong dollar rally. Viewed against gold over the long term, the dollar shows little real strength, with fiat currency appearing to be on a prolonged path of decline.
The persistent rise in the cost of essentials—such as food, housing, and transportation—is often linked to government reliance on fiat money. In this view, the long-term impact of fiat systems has been deeply damaging to citizens, rivaling the economic harm typically associated with major conflicts.
The argument here is that investors should consistently build positions in gold, taking advantage of key price zones such as $5,000, $4,850, and $4,650 to accumulate not only gold, but also silver and mining stocks.
From a technical perspective, momentum indicators like the Stochastics (14,7,7) are نزدیک oversold levels, and a dip toward $4,850 could help form a large bullish triangle pattern, with a potential upside target around $6,600.
In the near term, attention is on upcoming data and policy decisions—specifically the PPI report and the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement. With oil prices having surged significantly, the Fed may face challenges in addressing inflation while balancing pressure to support the economy. Policymakers could frame inflation as temporary, despite it remaining above their long-term target.
For long-term gold investors, however, the focus is less on short-term central bank actions and more on identifying attractive entry points to steadily accumulate precious metals and quality mining equities.
What about oil? The U.S. is aggressively trying—while piling on more debt—to contain the attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, and a positive headline could emerge within the next couple of weeks.
That could act as a catalyst for the stock market rally I’m expecting (including gold equities). Still, oil appears stuck in a wide $80–$120 range for now, though the odds favor an upside breakout, potentially driving prices toward $160.
The key point is this: oil production and transportation infrastructure across much of the Middle East has likely suffered meaningful damage, and restoring full capacity could take years.
As for Venezuela stepping in to offset the shortfall, that seems unlikely in the near term. Despite political maneuvering, international oil companies will likely expand production there very cautiously.
In short, $80 may now represent a structural floor for oil prices. If so, inflation floors—across CPI, PPI, and PCE—could settle in the 4%–5% range, or even higher.
What about miners? The CDNX hasn’t made any meaningful progress since I flagged a profit-taking opportunity five months ago at the key psychological resistance level around 1000.
From a technical standpoint, this consolidation phase could persist into the fall, potentially forming a highly bullish, symmetrical structure on the chart.
In the meantime, gold stock investors should use this period to properly organize their allocations—positioning themselves to patiently ride out the lull and ultimately capitalize on the powerful breakout and multi-year advance that is likely to follow.
The chart for SIL (the silver miners ETF) remains bullish. Based on classical charting principles from Edwards & Magee, rectangle patterns tend to break to the upside about 67% of the time, implying a potential target near $130.
Rather than trying to pinpoint an exact bottom, investors are better off identifying strong accumulation zones—like the current one—and buying incrementally. A gold price of $5,000 aligns with roughly $92 for SIL, while additional positions in GDX, SIL, and related mining stocks could be added if gold dips toward $4,850.
With governments globally becoming increasingly debt-driven, the macro backdrop remains chaotic. In that environment, gold, silver, and mining investors can stay on the sidelines of the noise and focus instead on taking advantage of attractive entry zones.
When geopolitical tensions tied to oil intensify, most investors focus on outright oil prices. While those prices matter, fewer pay attention to the spread between Brent and WTI—an equally revealing signal. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), priced in Cushing, Oklahoma, serves as the U.S. benchmark and mainly reflects North American supply-demand dynamics.
Brent, by contrast, is the global benchmark derived from North Sea crude and closely mirrors international supply-demand conditions—especially seaborne oil flows through key routes like the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Under normal circumstances, Brent trades at a premium of about $2–$5 over WTI.
Sharp changes in this premium carry important market signals. In the context of the Iran conflict, the Brent–WTI spread offers one of the clearest real-time indicators of how producers, consumers, and traders are interpreting the situation.
A widening spread suggests markets are pricing in a global supply disruption, while a stable or narrowing gap—even with high spot prices—implies expectations that any disruption will be limited and temporary.
Recently, the spread has been highly volatile. It currently stands at around $7, pointing to concerns that the conflict could continue to strain global supply. However, frequent swings in the spread show how quickly sentiment is shifting with each new development.
S&P 500 Trails Most Sectors
Last week, the S&P 500 slipped by less than 0.5%, but it has fallen just over 3% from its Tuesday peak and now sits roughly 5% below recent highs. As illustrated in the charts, most sectors are outperforming the broader market based on both absolute and relative measures. The blue circle in the first chart shows that many sectors are positioned in the top-left quadrant—suggesting they are somewhat overbought relative to the S&P 500, yet slightly oversold on a standalone technical basis.
The second chart compares each sector’s performance versus the S&P 500 over the past five days and the prior 20-day period. Transportation stands out as a clear laggard. The third chart, which breaks down the sector’s top ten holdings, shows that oil-sensitive industries—such as trucking, freight, and airlines—have been hit the hardest. These businesses are also closely tied to overall economic activity.
As a result, elevated oil prices combined with rising concerns about economic slowdown are weighing heavily on transportation stocks. If the conflict drags on, the sector is likely to continue underperforming. Even if valuations become deeply oversold, they may stay depressed until there are clearer signs of stability or resolution.
Oil prices declined during Wednesday’s Asian session, pulling back from recent gains after Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government agreed to restart crude exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal.
The agreement helped ease some concerns over supply disruptions stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. However, Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel, as the war entered its third week with little indication of de-escalation.
Markets also stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the day, amid worries that persistent inflation—fueled in part by higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict—could prompt a more hawkish stance.
By 00:18 ET (04:18 GMT), Brent futures had dropped 2.3% to $101.05 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 3.3% to $93.03 per barrel.
WTI faced additional pressure after data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.6 million barrels last week, defying expectations of a 0.6 million barrel draw. This data often signals a similar trend in official government figures, due later Wednesday.
On Tuesday, Iraq and Kurdish authorities finalized a deal to resume oil shipments to Turkey’s Ceyhan hub starting Wednesday. The move comes as major oil producers seek alternative export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz, especially after Iran effectively blocked the critical passage earlier this month.
Iraq had reportedly aimed to export at least 100,000 barrels per day through Ceyhan, after shutting in around 70% of its production due to the conflict. Still, the volumes from Ceyhan are expected to cover only a small portion of the supply gap caused by disruptions in Hormuz.
Oil prices also eased after reports that the United Arab Emirates may support a U.S.-led initiative to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had largely halted traffic through the strait—which handles roughly 20% of global oil supply—in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes.
The UAE could become the first country to back Washington’s efforts, though most allies have so far declined to participate. Meanwhile, tensions remain high, with Iran escalating attacks on vessels near Hormuz following strikes on a key export facility. Reports also indicated that Iranian security chief Ali Larijani was killed in an Israeli strike, raising the risk of further retaliation.
Despite the pullback, oil prices remain supported by ongoing supply concerns. Brent has surged more than 40% since the conflict began in late February. Analysts at OCBC expect crude prices to stay above $100 per barrel through at least mid-2026, citing the lack of clear prospects for easing tensions.
Oil prices to remain above $100/bbl
Oil prices are expected to stay above $100 per barrel in the near term, as the U.S.-Iran conflict shows little indication of easing, according to analysts at OCBC.
The bank noted that with the conflict now in its third week and no meaningful diplomatic progress, crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain heavily restricted, keeping global supply tight.
OCBC has revised its outlook, projecting Brent crude to hover around $100 per barrel until mid-2026—well above its earlier estimate of roughly $70—before gradually declining toward $70 by early 2027 as disruptions ease.
Analysts warned that prolonged shipping disruptions are forcing Gulf producers to cut output, increasing the likelihood that short-term supply issues could turn into more sustained losses.
Tanker activity in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply due to security concerns, effectively disrupting a crucial route responsible for about 20% of global oil consumption.
Although some shipments have cautiously resumed following Iranian inspections and potential stockpile releases from the International Energy Agency, overall volumes remain significantly below normal.
OCBC added that mitigation efforts—such as rerouting through alternative pipelines, tapping strategic reserves, and ongoing Iranian exports—could replace up to 10 million barrels per day. However, this would still leave a notable supply shortfall if disruptions persist.
The bank concluded that oil markets are nearing a “moderately severe” supply shock scenario, with risks tilted toward further price increases if geopolitical tensions continue.
Oil jumps more than 2% as markets assess supply threats from the Iran conflict.
Oil prices rebounded over 2% early Tuesday, recovering part of the previous session’s losses as supply concerns intensified amid major disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude climbed to around $102.69 a barrel, while WTI rose to about $95.92. The gains follow a sharp selloff in the prior session, when prices dropped after some tankers managed to pass through the key shipping route.
The Strait of Hormuz—responsible for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade—has been largely disrupted by the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran, now in its third week, heightening fears of supply shortages, rising energy costs, and persistent inflation.
Tensions remain elevated as several US allies declined calls to deploy naval escorts for tankers, while risks of further attacks on shipping continue to threaten stability in the region. Iran has also sought the release of seized Indian tankers as part of efforts to secure safe passage through the Gulf.
The disruption has already forced the UAE to cut oil output by more than half, tightening global supply. In response to rising energy costs, the International Energy Agency is considering additional releases from strategic reserves beyond the 400 million barrels already planned.
Meanwhile, major banks have raised their oil price forecasts, reflecting the risk of prolonged supply disruptions. Scenarios range from a quick resolution that pushes prices back toward $70 to an extended conflict that could drive Brent toward $85 or higher.
Security sources report that drones and rockets were launched at the US embassy in Baghdad.
Several rockets and at least five drones targeted the US embassy in Baghdad early Tuesday, in what Iraqi security sources described as the most severe attack since the US–Israel conflict with Iran began.
Witnesses saw multiple drones heading toward the compound, with air defenses intercepting some, while at least one hit inside the embassy, sparking fire and smoke. Blasts were also reported across the city.
The strike reflects escalating retaliation by Iran-backed militias against US interests in Iraq following the war that started on February 28.
In response, Iraqi forces have increased security across Baghdad, shutting down the fortified Green Zone that houses key government buildings and diplomatic missions.
The US Dollar Index holds onto Monday’s pullback around the 100.00 mark as attention turns to the Fed’s policy decision.
Iran has permitted multiple countries to move their energy tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Fed is widely anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.
The US Dollar (USD) is holding onto Monday’s corrective move, which was triggered by a sharp pullback in oil prices that helped ease concerns about unanchored consumer inflation.
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is edging slightly higher near 99.90.
The index retreated notably from Friday’s more-than-nine-month high of 100.54 as oil prices dropped after Iran permitted several countries to transport oil and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially reducing worries over energy supply disruptions.
In recent weeks, the USD has rallied strongly, supported by its safe-haven appeal amid escalating tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. Additionally, elevated oil prices have dampened expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Data from the CME FedWatch tool suggests that markets are largely convinced the Fed will keep rates unchanged until at least the September meeting, with the probability of a rate cut at that time standing at around 50%.
Looking ahead, investors will closely watch Wednesday’s Fed policy decision for further guidance. Attention will also be on the FOMC’s Economic Projections report, which will provide updated forecasts for interest rates, inflation, and economic growth.
WTI
WTI prices advance to around $94.20 during early Tuesday trading in Asia.
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support crude prices.
The IEA is considering releasing additional oil reserves to mitigate the economic fallout from the US–Israel conflict with Iran.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude benchmark, is hovering near $94.20 during early Tuesday trading in Asia, supported by ongoing tensions surrounding Iran, with no clear signs of de-escalation. Market participants are also awaiting the American Petroleum Institute (API) report due later in the day.
On Tuesday, the Israeli military reported detecting missiles launched from Iran toward Israeli territory, urging residents in impacted areas to seek shelter immediately. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced a temporary full closure of its airspace as a precautionary step, with its defense ministry confirming responses to incoming missile and drone threats from Iran.
Fears of retaliatory Iranian strikes targeting ships, infrastructure, and key transit ports for oil shipments have raised concerns that the conflict could evolve into a prolonged regional war. Such risks may continue to provide near-term support for WTI prices.
However, on the supply side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is considering releasing additional oil reserves into the global market to ease upward pressure on prices. The agency indicated a potential release of up to 400 million barrels, which, if coordinated among member countries, could temporarily boost supply and help limit sharp price spikes.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver declines as traders adjust positions ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision.
Higher oil prices, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, are fueling inflation concerns and dampening expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts.
At the same time, geopolitical risks involving the United States, Iran, and Israel are helping to cap deeper losses by maintaining demand for safe-haven assets like silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $80.50 on Tuesday, down about 0.60% on the day. The metal remains under pressure as fading expectations for near-term US rate cuts—amid rising inflation concerns tied to Middle East tensions—continue to weigh on sentiment.
Markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark rate unchanged within the 3.50%–3.75% range at Wednesday’s meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. If confirmed, this would mark a second straight pause following the prior easing cycle. Prolonged higher rates tend to pressure non-yielding assets like Silver, as they raise the opportunity cost of holding them.
Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven Oil prices higher, fueling fears of persistent inflation. Rising gasoline costs in the US are adding strain on households and may keep inflation expectations elevated, reinforcing the case for the Fed to maintain restrictive policy for longer.
Geopolitical developments continue to influence the precious metals market. Recent US strikes on Iran’s key export hub on Kharg Island have intensified concerns over global energy supply disruptions. While Washington has indicated the conflict could be resolved within weeks and is exploring an international effort to secure shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, uncertainty remains high.
This fragile geopolitical backdrop may help limit further downside in Silver. As a safe-haven asset, it tends to attract demand during periods of heightened risk, which could cushion losses even as higher interest rate expectations dampen overall investor appetite.
Sources: Ghiles Guezout, Lallalit Srijandorn and Sagar Dua
Gold draws safe-haven demand as tensions in the Middle East escalate further.
Inflation concerns dampen expectations of Fed rate cuts, supporting the USD and limiting the metal’s upside.
Traders remain cautious, avoiding aggressive positions ahead of this week’s major central bank events.
Gold (XAU/USD) ticks modestly higher in Tuesday’s Asian session but struggles to build momentum, hovering near a three-week low reached the day before. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to provide some support, as the conflict shows little sign of easing. Israel has expanded its ground operations in southern Lebanon—an area where Hezbollah maintains a strong presence—keeping geopolitical risks elevated and sustaining demand for the safe-haven metal.
Now in its third week, the conflict has seen Iran target civilian infrastructure across six Gulf nations, including airports, ports, oil facilities, and commercial centers, using missiles and drones. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical route for about one-fifth of global oil supply—have also kept crude prices elevated. This adds to inflation concerns, potentially pushing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer or even consider further tightening, which in turn limits upside for non-yielding assets like gold.
At the same time, rising geopolitical tensions have revived demand for the US Dollar following a pullback from its highest level since May 2025, further capping gains in XAU/USD. However, USD bulls remain cautious ahead of the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. Policy decisions from other major central banks, including the ECB, BoJ, and BoE, are also expected later in the week and could drive fresh volatility in gold prices.
Gold (XAU/USD) on the 4-hour timeframe chart
Gold appears at risk, with a break below the 200-period SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci level still in effect
Gold’s recent drop below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, along with sustained trading beneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the February–March rally, continues to favor bearish momentum in XAU/USD. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD, 12, 26, 9) remains in negative territory, with the MACD line below its signal line and a bearish histogram, pointing to ongoing downside pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 41, tilting toward the weaker side of neutral and suggesting sellers are still in control.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen near the 38.2% Fibonacci level around $5,040, followed by the 200-period SMA close to $5,063. A decisive move above this zone would help reduce bearish pressure and potentially pave the way toward the 23.6% retracement near $5,186. On the downside, immediate support lies at the key psychological level of $5,000, with further support around the recent lows between $4,995 and $4,985. A break below this area could open the door to a deeper pullback toward the 50.0% retracement at $4,921.41. A sustained move back above the 200-period SMA would weaken the bearish outlook, while continued rejection below $5,040 keeps the focus on further declines.
Oil prices increased on Monday as the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran continued to disrupt oil production and transportation across the Middle East, despite a call from Donald Trump for international cooperation to protect the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures climbed by $2.30, or 2.2%, reaching $105.44 per barrel at 0903 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.29, or 1.3%, to $100 per barrel.
Both benchmarks have jumped more than 40% this month, reaching their highest levels since 2022. The surge followed U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran, which led Tehran to halt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—an essential route for global energy trade—disrupting roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies.
On Monday, oil-loading activities were suspended at the UAE’s Fujairah port after a drone strike triggered a fire in the emirate’s petroleum industrial area, according to two sources who spoke to Reuters.
Fujairah, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, serves as an export hub for around 1 million barrels per day of the UAE’s flagship Murban crude oil, equivalent to roughly 1% of global oil demand.
The International Energy Agency warned on Thursday that the conflict in the Middle East is causing the most severe oil supply disruption on record, as major producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates have reduced output since the war began.
According to PVM analyst Tamas Varga, investors appear to understand that if just two weeks of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have already caused significant damage to production, exports, and refining, a prolonged conflict could have far more serious consequences, particularly as global inventories continue to decline.
Analysts from ING said on Monday that recent U.S. strikes on Kharg Island over the weekend have heightened concerns about oil supply, as the majority of Iran’s crude exports are shipped through the island.
Although the attacks appeared to focus on military installations rather than energy infrastructure, ING noted that they still threaten supply stability. This is because Iranian crude is currently among the few oil flows still passing through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
During the weekend, Donald Trump warned that additional strikes could target Kharg Island—an export hub responsible for roughly 90% of Iran’s oil shipments—after U.S. forces hit military facilities there, prompting retaliatory actions from Tehran.
On Sunday, Trump called on other countries to assist in safeguarding this critical energy corridor and said that Washington was holding discussions with several nations about jointly monitoring and securing the strait.
Trump also stated that the United States remained in communication with Iran, though he expressed skepticism that Tehran was ready to engage in meaningful negotiations to bring the conflict to an end.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency announced on Sunday that more than 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves would soon be released into the market—a record intervention intended to stabilize prices amid disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.
According to the agency, reserves from countries in Asia and Oceania will be made available immediately, while supplies from Europe and the Americas are expected to enter the market by the end of March.
SEB analyst Meyersson said that as the conflict moves into its third week, the absence of a clear resolution is increasing global market anxiety about the possibility of an uncontrolled escalation.
However, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday that he expected the war to end within the next few weeks, which could allow oil supplies to recover and energy prices to decline.
Mid-tier and junior gold mining companies have largely completed reporting what has turned out to be the strongest quarter the industry has ever seen. These smaller producers—often considered the sector’s sweet spot for upside—once again broke numerous records and clearly outperformed the large major miners. In the latest quarter, mid-tier companies posted exceptional figures across the board, including revenue, net earnings, profit per ounce, operating cash flow, and cash reserves. Remarkably, early indicators suggest the current quarter could deliver even stronger results.
The main benchmark tracking mid-tier gold miners is the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ). With about $10.6 billion in assets under management as of midweek, it remains the second-largest gold-mining ETF after its counterpart, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). While GDX is dominated by the largest mining companies, there is considerable overlap between the two funds. Despite its name, GDXJ today functions primarily as a mid-tier gold miner ETF, with true junior miners representing only a smaller share of the portfolio.
Gold mining companies are typically categorized by annual production levels measured in ounces. Junior miners generally produce less than 300,000 ounces per year, mid-tier producers generate between 300,000 and 1 million ounces, major miners exceed 1 million ounces, and the largest “super-major” companies produce more than 2 million ounces annually. On a quarterly basis, these thresholds translate to roughly under 75,000 ounces for juniors, 75,000–250,000 for mid-tiers, more than 250,000 for majors, and over 500,000 for super-majors. Among the 25 largest holdings of GDXJ, only four actually qualify as true juniors today.
In the referenced analysis table, quarterly production figures are highlighted in blue. Junior miners are defined not only by producing under 75,000 ounces per quarter but also by generating more than half of their revenue from gold production itself. This classification excludes streaming and royalty companies—firms that provide upfront capital for mine development in exchange for future production—as well as primary silver miners that produce gold as a byproduct. Even so, mid-tier miners often present more attractive investment opportunities than juniors.
The mid-tier companies dominating GDXJ offer a compelling combination of diversified production, strong growth potential, and relatively smaller market capitalizations, which create room for outsized gains. Compared with junior miners, they generally carry less operational risk, yet they tend to deliver greater upside during gold rallies than the large majors.
For many years, these mid-tier miners were largely overlooked by investors, but attention toward the group has grown recently. In 2025, leading up to gold’s mid-October peak, GDXJ surged an impressive 161.3% year-to-date. However, the sector experienced a sharp correction early in the fourth quarter as gold prices briefly retreated, sending GDXJ down 21.6% within just a few weeks. Once gold rebounded, the ETF quickly recovered, climbing another 38.9% by late December.
Interestingly, unlike GDX, GDXJ’s share price did not approach its historical highs during the quarter. The ETF originally peaked at $146.20 back in December 2010 and did not finally surpass that level until late January 2026, when gold reached an extremely overbought condition. The average price of GDXJ during Q4 2025 was about $103.33—still well below the $127.84 average recorded in Q4 2010. Even the strong rally earlier in the quarter did not push valuations to historic extremes.
At one point in early October, GDXJ traded 69.5% above its 200-day moving average, an unusually stretched level. However, this was still below the even more extreme 84.2% deviation reached in mid-2016. Over the course of gold’s massive 139.1% bull market from October 2023 to October 2025, GDXJ rose about 262.3%. That equates to only about 1.9 times leverage relative to gold’s gains, which is far below the historical pattern where smaller miners often amplify gold’s performance by three to four times.
Following a rapid correction, gold’s bull market resumed and continued climbing into late January 2026, ultimately reaching a total gain of roughly 196.4%. During that period, GDXJ increased about 387.9%, representing only around 2.0 times leverage to the metal. In other words, despite strong absolute returns, smaller gold miners have still underperformed relative to gold itself. This suggests that their share prices could still rise substantially as more investors begin to recognize the sector’s strong fundamentals.
For 39 consecutive quarters, the analyst behind this research has examined the operational and financial results of the 25 largest companies within GDXJ. These firms—mostly mid-tier producers—now account for roughly 69% of the ETF’s total weighting. While reviewing quarterly reports requires extensive effort, it provides valuable insight into the underlying fundamentals of smaller gold miners and helps cut through the often misleading market sentiment surrounding the sector.
The accompanying table summarizes key operational and financial metrics for the top 25 GDXJ holdings in Q4 2025. The stock symbols listed are not all U.S. listings and are preceded by their ranking changes within the ETF over the past year. These shifts largely reflect changes in market capitalization, highlighting which companies have outperformed or lagged since Q4 2024. Each company’s current weighting within GDXJ is also provided.
The table then details each miner’s gold production during Q4 2025, measured in ounces, along with year-over-year changes compared with Q4 2024. Production remains the lifeblood of the mining industry, and investors typically place the greatest emphasis on companies that can consistently grow output. Cost metrics follow, including cash costs and all-in sustaining costs per ounce, both of which provide insight into the profitability of each operation.
Additional financial data—such as quarterly revenue, net income, operating cash flow, and total cash holdings—comes directly from regulatory filings. Some data points may appear blank if companies had not yet reported those figures at the time of analysis. Year-over-year comparisons are also excluded in cases where they would be misleading, such as when figures shift from negative to positive or vice versa.
With gold’s average quarterly price soaring 56% year-over-year to a record $4,150 in Q4, the results for smaller gold miners were bound to be exceptional. Indeed, the industry delivered the strongest performance ever recorded. And if that were not impressive enough, preliminary data suggests the current quarter is shaping up to be even stronger. Mid-tier and junior miners clearly deserve far greater attention from investors than they have received so far.
Last week, a similar study was conducted on the Q4 results of the 25 largest gold miners within the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). These results serve as an important benchmark when comparing the performance of the 25 largest mid-tier miners in the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ). Over many quarters and years, smaller gold miners have consistently delivered stronger fundamental performance than their larger counterparts. Given that mid-tier companies outperform majors across most key metrics, there is little strategic rationale for prioritizing investment in major miners. In theory, GDXJ should attract significantly more capital than GDX.
However, as of midweek, GDXJ’s total assets were only about one-third the size of GDX. As more investors and traders examine the sector closely and recognize the superior operational and market performance of smaller gold miners, this imbalance may gradually shift. Mid-tier miners deserve stronger capital inflows than the majors, which could push their share prices higher at a faster pace. The Q4 comparison between GDXJ and GDX once again reinforced this argument.
During the fourth quarter, the top 25 GDXJ miners collectively produced approximately 3.237 million ounces of gold, representing a modest 0.6% increase year-over-year. While this growth was slightly below the global mined-gold output increase of 1.1% reported by the World Gold Council, it still significantly outperformed the production trend among the GDX top 25 majors. Those large miners experienced a steep 12% year-over-year decline in output. After adjusting for a structural change in the ETF composition, the majors’ production decline was closer to 5.6%, but this still lagged mid-tier performance.
Fundamentally, major and mid-tier gold miners operate under different dynamics. Large mining companies often struggle with declining production because of depletion at their massive operating scale. Mid-tier companies, by contrast, usually operate smaller portfolios of mines—often between one and four. This means that expansions or new projects can have a meaningful impact on their overall production levels. As a result, mid-tier companies are generally better positioned to offset depletion and maintain steady production growth.
Production growth is critical in the gold mining industry because it generates the cash flow needed to expand existing operations, develop new mines, or acquire producing assets. These investments ultimately support higher stock valuations. Interestingly, mid-tier miners frequently maintain lower mining costs than large producers, despite the supposed economies of scale enjoyed by major companies. Lower costs relative to output translate into higher profitability, which in turn can drive stronger share-price appreciation.
Another factor supporting mid-tier stock performance is their smaller market capitalization. The average market cap of the 25 largest GDX companies stood at roughly $38.8 billion last week—around 2.8 times higher than the average $13.9 billion market cap of the top 25 GDXJ miners. The five largest holdings in GDX averaged $98.3 billion each, compared with $20.3 billion for GDXJ’s top five. Companies with smaller market capitalizations typically require less capital inflow to drive significant stock-price movement, giving them greater upside potential.
Analyzing fourth-quarter results can be challenging because many mining companies delay reporting until their year-end annual reports are finalized. Some firms within the leading gold-miner ETFs do not release their Q4 results until mid-to-late March. One such company is Harmony Gold Mining Company from South Africa, which only reported its results this week. Harmony is notable because it appears among the top 25 holdings in both GDX and GDXJ.
Because Harmony is a large major producer, its results are important for comparison. Its late reporting meant it was excluded from the earlier GDX analysis but has now been incorporated into updated comparisons. Including Harmony slightly changes the previously reported GDX figures. Given its large size, the company arguably should not have been included in the GDXJ portfolio in the first place.
In general, unit mining costs tend to decline as production volumes increase. This is because many operational expenses for gold mines are fixed during the planning and construction phases, when processing plant capacities are determined. Infrastructure, equipment, and labor requirements remain relatively stable regardless of short-term production fluctuations.
The primary factor influencing quarterly production is the grade of the ore processed by the mining facilities. Ore grades can vary significantly even within the same deposit. Higher-grade ore produces more gold per ton, spreading fixed operating costs over more ounces and lowering per-unit costs. However, in addition to these fixed costs, gold mining also involves significant variable costs—many of which have been affected by the high inflation seen in recent years.
Cash costs remain the traditional metric for measuring mining expenses, covering the direct cash expenditures required to produce an ounce of gold. However, this measure does not include the capital investments required for exploration or mine construction. For that reason, cash costs should be viewed mainly as a minimum survival threshold, indicating the lowest gold price needed for mines to remain operational.
In Q4 2025, the average cash cost among the top 25 GDXJ miners surged 19.1% year-over-year to a record $1,293 per ounce. By comparison, the GDX top 25 majors experienced a smaller increase, with cash costs rising 7% to $1,238. One of the main drivers behind these increases was higher royalty payments, which rise alongside gold prices because they are typically calculated as a percentage of production value.
For example, Lundin Gold reported a 33.6% year-over-year increase in cash costs to $947 per ounce, partly due to higher royalty obligations and employee profit-sharing tied to record gold prices. Meanwhile, OceanaGold saw royalty payments across its operations increase sixfold in absolute terms compared with the same quarter the previous year.
A more comprehensive cost metric is the all-in sustaining cost (AISC), introduced by the World Gold Council in 2013. AISCs include cash costs along with sustaining capital expenditures and other operational expenses required to maintain current production levels. As such, they provide a clearer picture of true profitability.
Cash costs typically represent the largest portion of AISCs. In Q4 2025, they accounted for nearly seven-eighths of the average AISC among the top 25 GDXJ miners. As a result, rising royalty expenses pushed AISCs higher as well. During the quarter, the group’s average AISC rose 10.7% year-over-year to a record $1,490 per ounce. Even so, this still compared favorably with the GDX majors, whose AISCs climbed 16% to $1,687.
However, these averages were distorted by an extreme outlier. Peru’s Compañía de Minas Buenaventura reported a remarkable negative AISC of $2,178 per ounce. This unusual result stems from the company’s polymetallic production profile. While it reports results in gold-equivalent terms, its operations primarily produce other metals such as silver, copper, zinc, and lead. Gold accounted for only about 28% of its revenue in the quarter.
Because the company treats other metals as byproducts that offset gold-production costs, its gold AISCs can appear extremely low or even negative. Such anomalies have occurred repeatedly over the past nine quarters. Although Buenaventura was historically a top-25 holding in both GDX and GDXJ, it has recently fallen to 27th place in GDX as other companies have outperformed.
For consistency, all reported figures—including outliers—are included in the long-term dataset used in this research. Without Buenaventura’s unusual figures, the average AISC for the GDXJ top 25 would have been $1,719 per ounce in Q4, representing a much larger 27.7% year-over-year increase.
Other factors also influenced the cost averages. For instance, Hecla Mining reported exceptionally high AISCs of $2,696 per ounce, while New Gold did not release Q4 results due to its pending acquisition by Coeur Mining. In the previous quarter, New Gold had reported relatively low AISCs of around $966.
After decades of studying the gold-mining sector, the analyst considers “implied unit earnings” to be the most useful metric for evaluating the collective performance of mid-tier miners. This measure subtracts the average AISC from the average quarterly gold price, providing a clearer indicator of profitability than accounting earnings, which can be distorted by non-cash items.
In Q4 2025, the average gold price reached a record $4,150. Subtracting the $1,490 AISC yields implied profits of approximately $2,660 per ounce. This represents an extraordinary 102.4% increase year-over-year and the highest profitability ever recorded for either GDXJ or GDX miners.
This milestone extends a remarkable trend. Over the previous ten quarters, the GDXJ top 25 recorded year-over-year implied earnings growth of 106%, 133%, 63%, 63%, 71%, 95%, 91%, 79%, 82%, and 102%. Few sectors in global equity markets have experienced such sustained profit growth. With such performance, mid-tier gold miners arguably deserve to be among the most sought-after sectors for investors.
The trend may continue. With more than three-quarters of Q1 2026 completed, gold has averaged roughly $4,931 so far. If this level holds, it would represent another extraordinary year-over-year increase of about 72%. This rise would likely continue to outpace cost inflation among mid-tier miners.
Based on guidance, the average 2026 AISC for the GDXJ top 25 is projected to reach about $1,857 per ounce. Excluding unusually high estimates—such as the $3,075 forecast from Hecla Mining—the average falls closer to $1,776. Using a conservative estimate of $1,850, implied profits in Q1 2026 could approach another record near $3,080 per ounce, representing roughly 107% year-over-year growth.
Gold stocks also benefit from seasonal patterns. Historically, gold experiences three major rallies during the year—autumn, winter, and spring. The winter rally tends to be the strongest for gold itself, while the spring rally—from mid-March through early June—often delivers the strongest outperformance for gold-mining stocks. That seasonal window coincides with the release of Q1 earnings, which could further boost investor enthusiasm.
Sometimes accounting results differ from implied profitability due to non-cash adjustments. However, that was not the case in Q4 2025. The top 25 GDXJ miners reported total revenue of $16.6 billion, up 48.1% year-over-year and marking a new industry record. Net earnings surged even more dramatically, jumping 307% to a record $5.15 billion.
After adjusting for unusual items such as asset impairments or valuation changes, total earnings remained almost unchanged at $5.16 billion—still representing a massive 252% increase compared with Q4 2024.
Operating cash flow also surged, rising 86.3% year-over-year to a record $7.43 billion. This influx of cash boosted the combined cash reserves of the GDXJ top 25 to another all-time high of $14.4 billion, up 50.8% from the previous year.
While net profits influence valuations, operating cash flow and cash reserves directly support future production growth. Companies with strong balance sheets are better positioned to expand existing mines, build new operations, or acquire producing assets. These investments could accelerate production growth among mid-tier miners in the coming years.
The main risk to this bullish outlook is gold itself. Gold-mining stocks typically amplify movements in the metal by three to four times. When gold becomes extremely overbought, corrections can be sharp. Earlier this year, gold reached one of its most extreme overbought conditions since the early 1980s before experiencing a brief correction.
Although prices have since stabilized at elevated levels, historical precedent suggests that a significant pullback could still occur. If gold were to decline sharply, mining stocks would likely fall even more dramatically despite their strong fundamentals. Such declines, however, could present attractive buying opportunities.
In summary, mid-tier and junior gold miners have just reported the strongest quarter in the history of the industry. Record gold prices fueled unprecedented revenues, profits, cash flows, and balance-sheet strength. This marks the tenth consecutive quarter of extraordinary earnings growth for the sector.
With gold prices still trending toward another record quarter, the next round of results may be even stronger. These improving fundamentals could attract additional investment capital into mid-tier miners, driving further stock gains—unless a sharp gold correction occurs first, in which case mining stocks would likely magnify the downside.
The sharp rise in oil prices following escalating tensions between the United States and Iran has reignited talk of stagflation. That concern is largely misplaced. What markets may actually be reacting to is not a repeat of the 1970s, but the early stages of a broader shift in capital allocation — away from financial assets and toward tangible ones.
The Stagflation Comparison Falls Apart
Whenever oil prices surge, fears of stagflation quickly emerge. The pattern appeared in 2022 and is resurfacing again. The instinct makes sense: higher energy costs can push inflation upward while weighing on economic growth. However, drawing a direct parallel with the stagflation period of the 1970s and early 1980s oversimplifies the situation.
Classic stagflation requires a persistent combination of three conditions: entrenched inflation far above target levels, stagnating or shrinking economic activity, and limited policy tools capable of correcting the imbalance without worsening the problem. In the United States during 1973 and again in 1979, all of these factors were present. Today’s environment looks very different.
Inflation is the first major distinction. During the 1970s, U.S. consumer prices averaged above 7% for much of the decade and surged beyond 13% at the end of the period. Inflation was embedded in wages, expectations, and policy frameworks. By contrast, today’s inflation has already declined significantly from its 2022 highs. While still above the ultra-low levels seen after 2008, it remains far more controlled. Importantly, central banks now possess the credibility that was missing during the Federal Reserve leadership of Arthur Burns. Inflation expectations remain relatively stable — a crucial difference.
Economic growth tells a similar story. Real GDP continues to expand at a respectable pace, and while the labor market is gradually cooling, it is far from collapsing. Corporate profits have generally remained resilient, apart from sectors particularly sensitive to higher interest rates. Consumer spending — supported by continued employment — has not stalled. In this context, an oil price spike represents a headwind rather than an automatic trigger for recession.
Supply conditions also differ dramatically from those of the 1970s. The earlier oil crises were driven by coordinated OPEC embargoes that deliberately restricted supply to Western economies. At the time, alternatives were limited and domestic production could not compensate. Today, the United States is the world’s largest oil producer thanks to the shale revolution. A disruption involving Iran can lift prices, but it does not recreate the systemic vulnerability that defined the 1973 crisis.
The reality is straightforward: energy prices may push inflation slightly higher and shave some growth at the margins. But an isolated oil shock does not produce stagflation unless the broader economic structure is already broken — and that is not the case today.
What the Oil Spike Actually Signals
Rather than focusing on stagflation, investors should consider what oil’s move may be revealing about broader market dynamics.
Historical patterns following geopolitical shocks offer a useful guide. In the first three months after such events, oil tends to be the strongest performer among major assets, rising roughly 18% on average. Gold typically advances about 6%, while equities post modest gains of around 4%, often reflecting relief that the situation did not escalate further.
Six months later, however, the picture often changes. Gold generally continues to climb, with average gains near 19%. Equity markets lose momentum, and oil frequently gives back much of its initial spike as supply responses and fading fear premiums bring prices back down.
The tactical takeaway is clear: oil tends to perform best during the initial shock phase, while gold benefits from the longer period of uncertainty that follows. The geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices is often temporary, but in gold it can evolve into a more lasting repricing tied to concerns about currencies, fiscal sustainability, and the reliability of financial assets.
The Bigger Shift: Real Assets Regaining Importance
Looking at the broader market landscape, the oil rally may represent just one element of a larger transition.
During 2024 and 2025, equity markets were dominated by a single theme: artificial intelligence. Capital poured into a small group of large technology companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure. The narrative was simple — if AI would reshape the economy, investors should own the companies leading that transformation.
By 2026, leadership appears to be shifting. The strongest performers are increasingly the firms supplying the physical foundations of the AI economy: semiconductor manufacturers, materials producers, energy providers, and industrial supply chains. Meanwhile, some of the technology platforms themselves face rising costs and pressure on their traditional software revenue models.
This development suggests something deeper than a normal sector rotation.
For decades, capital markets favored companies that consumed resources while undervaluing those that produced them. Asset-light businesses commanded premium valuations, while industries tied to the physical economy — mining, energy, utilities, and heavy industry — were often neglected and underfunded.
Yet the real economy never disappeared. In fact, its importance is now becoming more apparent.
The expansion of artificial intelligence requires enormous amounts of electricity to power data centers. Electrification of transportation and manufacturing depends on vast quantities of copper and other metals. Efforts to rebuild domestic manufacturing and strengthen supply chains demand steel, critical minerals, and engineering capacity that has been underdeveloped for years. Energy security has also become a top political priority, encouraging renewed investment in domestic production infrastructure.
All of these forces point toward the same conclusion: the materials and energy systems that underpin the global economy are increasingly scarce relative to rising demand.
When markets begin to recognize a prolonged supply gap in strategically important commodities, the resulting repricing can be powerful and long-lasting. Recent strength in assets such as copper, gold, uranium, and energy infrastructure may be early evidence of that process.
Investment Implications
Viewing the current environment through the lens of stagflation frames it as a temporary economic problem. That interpretation misses the larger opportunity.
The macroeconomic risks are likely overstated: inflation is not deeply entrenched, the economy continues to expand, and the conditions that produced 1970s-style stagflation are absent. Investors who position primarily for economic collapse may find themselves overly defensive.
At the same time, the stagflation narrative understates the structural shift taking place. If markets are beginning to rotate from financial assets toward real ones — from digital platforms to the physical infrastructure supporting them — then the investment strategy should focus less on protection and more on positioning.
In simple terms, the beneficiaries are likely to be the builders rather than the spenders: companies involved in energy production, materials, infrastructure, and industrial supply chains, along with scarce hard assets.
History shows that when these types of market rotations begin, they often last longer and move further than most investors expect. Commodity sectors have experienced more than a decade of underinvestment, while the forces driving demand — artificial intelligence power needs, electrification, and reindustrialization — are structural trends rather than short-term cycles.
This moment may not replicate the 1970s. But it could mark the beginning of a similarly significant shift: a period in which the physical economy returns to the center of global capital markets, rewarding investors who recognize the change early.
U.S. President Donald Trump warned that he could authorize strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure on Kharg Island if Tehran continues attacks on vessels passing through the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz. The threat added further uncertainty to global markets already facing one of the most significant supply disruptions in history.
Trump accompanied the warning with a social media message claiming that U.S. forces had “completely destroyed” military targets on Kharg Island. The island functions as the main export terminal for roughly 90% of Iran’s crude shipments and is located about 300 miles northwest of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the president clarified that American strikes had not targeted Kharg’s oil infrastructure. He added that if Iran or any other party attempted to block the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, Washington could reconsider that restraint.
Trump also stated that Iran lacked the capability to defend itself against U.S. military action. In a post on Truth Social, he urged Iran’s armed forces and their allies to surrender, warning that continuing the conflict could further devastate the country.
Iran’s military responded on Saturday by warning that any attack on its oil or energy facilities would be met with retaliation against installations belonging to oil companies cooperating with the United States in the region, according to Iranian media reports.
Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported that more than 15 explosions were heard on Kharg Island during the U.S. strikes. Sources said the attacks hit air-defense systems, a naval installation, and airport infrastructure, while leaving oil facilities untouched.
Energy markets were closely monitoring whether the strikes had damaged Kharg Island’s complex network of pipelines, storage tanks, and export terminals. Even minor disruptions could further constrain global oil supply and intensify volatility in energy markets.
Elsewhere in the region, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it had carried out additional strikes against Israel in coordination with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, according to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency.
Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces said on Friday that its air force had attacked more than 200 targets across western and central Iran within the past 24 hours, including missile launchers, air-defense systems, and weapons manufacturing facilities.
The United States has also suffered losses. The U.S. military confirmed that all six crew members aboard a refueling aircraft that crashed in western Iraq had died.
According to The Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. officials, five U.S. Air Force tanker aircraft stationed at a base in Saudi Arabia were damaged in an Iranian missile strike and were undergoing repairs.
Gulf and Lebanon emerge as key flashpoints
Oil markets have experienced sharp price swings in response to Trump’s shifting comments about the potential duration of the conflict, which began on February 28 when large-scale U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran. The fighting quickly expanded into a wider regional confrontation with major implications for global energy and financial markets.
Lebanon has become another focal point of the conflict, with Israeli forces and Hezbollah exchanging strikes in and around Beirut.
In addition to missile and drone attacks against Israel and U.S.-aligned Gulf states, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has attempted to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route that carries about 20% of the world’s fossil fuel supplies.
Trump said on Friday that the United States Navy would soon begin escorting oil tankers through the waterway.
Although he previously suggested the war might last only a few weeks, Trump declined to predict a timeline for its end, saying the conflict would continue for as long as necessary.
Despite the fighting, Iran has continued exporting crude oil while several Gulf producers have halted shipments due to concerns about potential Iranian attacks.
Satellite imagery reviewed by TankerTrackers.com showed multiple very large crude carriers loading oil at Kharg Island earlier in the week. Iran exported between 1.1 million and 1.5 million barrels per day from the start of the war through midweek.
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, said Trump’s remarks could push markets to focus on the possibility that the current energy disruption — already the largest on record — might worsen and persist longer than expected.
Some industry analysts doubt Kharg Island’s oil infrastructure will remain untouched. Josh Young, chief investment officer at Bison Interests, remarked that bombing the island without hitting its oil facilities would be pointless.
War spreads across the Middle East
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in his first public remarks that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and warned neighboring countries to shut down U.S. military bases on their soil or risk becoming targets themselves.
European governments are now discussing measures to protect their interests. France has been consulting with European, Asian, and Gulf Arab partners on plans to deploy warships to escort commercial tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, according to French officials.
After nearly two weeks of fighting, about 2,000 people have been killed — the majority in Iran, with significant casualties also reported in Lebanon and increasing losses in Gulf states that have rarely been on the front lines of regional conflicts.
Millions of civilians have been displaced. In Lebanon, as Israeli airstrikes continued to hit the outskirts of Beirut, the country’s interior minister said authorities were struggling to accommodate the hundreds of thousands of people seeking refuge in the capital.
Gold attracted dip-buying during Friday’s Asian session, ending a two-day losing streak.
Declining US Treasury yields weighed on the US Dollar, helping support the precious metal as safe-haven demand increased.
However, inflation concerns have reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, strengthening the US Dollar and potentially limiting further gains in gold.
Gold (XAU/USD) moved higher during Friday’s Asian session, recovering part of the losses recorded over the previous two days. The rebound came as the US Dollar (USD) paused its three-day rally amid a modest decline in US Treasury yields, offering some support to the precious metal. In addition, escalating tensions in the Middle East have boosted safe-haven demand, encouraging traders to buy Gold near the lower end of the trading range that has persisted over the past two weeks.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, warned in his first public remarks that all US military bases in the region should close immediately or face potential attacks. He also stated that Iran would continue strikes against US bases, even while expressing a willingness to maintain goodwill with neighboring countries. Meanwhile, Donald Trump emphasized that countering Iran’s “evil empire” was more important than the impact on oil prices. In fact, Crude Oil prices have been rising since the beginning of the US-Israel conflict with Iran.
At the same time, fears of supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have increased concerns about a potential surge in inflation. This has prompted investors to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. Such expectations could push US bond yields and the USD higher, potentially limiting further gains for non-yielding assets like Gold.
Investors are also waiting for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, due later in the North American session. This key inflation indicator will play an important role in shaping expectations for the Fed’s policy outlook, especially as markets worry that the war could push consumer prices higher.
Overall, geopolitical developments remain the dominant driver for markets. However, XAU/USD still appears on track to post a second consecutive weekly loss, and the mix of supportive and restrictive factors suggests traders may remain cautious before taking strong directional positions.
XAU/USD four-hour chart
Gold continues to receive support around the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart.
Gold is once again rebounding from support near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. This reaction keeps the broader bullish structure intact despite the recent pullback and suggests that XAU/USD bears should remain cautious.
At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below both its signal line and the zero level. However, the shrinking negative histogram suggests that bearish momentum is fading rather than signaling a fresh downside move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), hovering around 44, remains below the 50 midpoint but is well above oversold territory, indicating that the current move may be more of a corrective phase within a broader upward trend rather than a confirmed top.
In terms of levels, immediate support lies near $5,090, where recent intraday lows sit slightly above the 4-hour 200-period EMA around $5,039, creating an important demand zone. A break below this region could expose stronger support near $5,000.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen around the recent swing high near $5,160. A sustained move above this level could pave the way toward $5,200, followed by the late-stage peak near $5,230.
A recovery above the $5,160–$5,200 area would likely push the MACD back toward the zero line and lift the RSI closer to 50, strengthening the bullish bias. Conversely, if the $5,090–$5,039 support cluster fails to hold, the 4-hour outlook could shift toward a more neutral or even bearish tone.
WTI declined after Australia’s Energy Minister Chris Bowen announced the release of 762 million liters of fuel from the country’s reserves. However, oil prices could climb again as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid intensifying tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated that keeping the strait shut should continue to serve as a “tool to pressure the enemy.”
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded slightly lower during Asian trading hours on Friday, hovering around $95.20 per barrel after surging more than 9% in the previous session. Prices eased after Australia’s Energy Minister Chris Bowen announced that the country would release up to 762 million liters of fuel from strategic reserves and relax fuel stockholding rules to ease supply disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran.
The Australian government also plans to cut minimum fuel reserve requirements by as much as 20% in an effort to stabilize domestic supply. Nevertheless, oil prices could continue to climb as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed amid escalating tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Since the war began, U.S. crude prices have jumped more than 40%. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran could be triggering the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
Reports indicate that officials from the U.S. Department of Defense and the National Security Council underestimated Iran’s willingness to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. military strikes while planning the operation. The waterway carries around one-fifth of global oil consumption, making it one of the most strategically vital shipping routes in the world. Any interruption to tanker traffic there can rapidly impact global energy markets.
In his first public remarks since assuming power, Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should remain a “tool to pressure the enemy.” He also warned that all U.S. military bases in the region should be shut down immediately or risk potential attacks.
Oil prices surged in Asian trading on Thursday, climbing back above the key $100 per barrel mark as concerns mounted over energy supply disruptions tied to the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Brent crude futures jumped more than 9% to $100.25 per barrel by 22:52 ET (02:52 GMT), while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 8.8% to $93.67 per barrel.
Reports indicated that two international oil tankers were attacked in the northern Persian Gulf near Iraq and Kuwait. Videos circulating online showed the vessels on fire, with Iraqi media blaming the strike on Iran.
Separately, Bloomberg reported that Oman evacuated all ships from the major oil export terminal at Mina Al Fahal as a precaution following a series of attacks on vessels in the region.
These incidents suggest the conflict is spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz, as the war entered its thirteenth straight day on Thursday. Attacks on tankers and port shutdowns intensified fears of supply disruptions, particularly after Iran warned that no crude oil would pass through the strategic waterway, which carries roughly 20% of global oil shipments. The country was reported to have already blocked traffic through the route earlier this week.
However, oil prices stayed below their weekly highs as several countries moved to counter potential supply shortages. Reports suggested the International Energy Agency was preparing to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. Meanwhile, Donald Trump said the United States would release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease energy market pressures caused by the conflict.
Despite repeated claims from U.S. officials that the war could soon end, the fighting has shown little sign of easing. Oil prices had earlier surged to nearly $120 per barrel earlier this week.
Gold prices are stabilizing near a key resistance area as global financial markets position ahead of the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The inflation data due later in the session is expected to be one of the week’s most important macroeconomic events, with the potential to influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy, real interest rates, and global asset allocation.
Across markets, investors have already begun adjusting their positions, trimming directional exposure before the data release. Precious metals have remained relatively supported, while performance across other asset classes has been more mixed, underscoring gold’s role as a defensive asset during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.
Instead of taking aggressive new positions, many traders are adopting a wait-and-see stance as the market enters the final hours ahead of the CPI release. Such cautious positioning often leads to short-term consolidation across major assets as participants manage risk before potentially market-moving economic data.
Inflation data emerges as the key macro catalyst for markets
The upcoming U.S. CPI release is considered the most important scheduled macroeconomic event of the week, as inflation data directly shapes expectations for Federal Reserve policy, real interest rates, and the direction of the U.S. dollar. All three factors have historically played a major role in influencing gold price movements.
When inflation data comes in stronger than expected, markets often reassess how persistent price pressures may be and whether monetary policy could remain restrictive for longer. In such situations, investors tend to increase allocations to assets that help preserve purchasing power, which typically supports demand for gold and other precious metals.
Conversely, softer inflation readings can trigger the opposite reaction. If price pressures appear to be easing, investors may anticipate that the Federal Reserve will have greater flexibility to slow or pause its tightening cycle. Shifts in interest-rate expectations frequently ripple through currency markets and broader commodity positioning, which in turn affects gold price dynamics.
Because of this sensitivity, gold often enters a phase of consolidation ahead of major inflation releases as traders reduce exposure while waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals.
Recent market behavior reflects this pattern. Movements in U.S. Treasury yields and currency markets have remained relatively contained, while equity indices have shown uneven performance across different regions. These mixed signals suggest that investors are largely focused on the upcoming inflation data rather than reacting to short-term fluctuations in individual markets.
Within the broader metals complex, gold continues to act as the anchor asset guiding investor flows. While silver and other metals have shown greater short-term volatility, gold remains the primary reference point for portfolio allocation during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.
Demand for precious metals has stayed relatively stable even as other commodity sectors display more volatile price movements. Energy markets, in particular, have recently experienced sharp swings, underscoring a growing divergence between the behavior of industrial commodities and defensive assets.
This divergence indicates that investors are reassessing broader macro risks rather than simply reacting to individual commodity price fluctuations. With inflation expectations and the outlook for monetary policy still uncertain, capital flows are increasingly being directed toward assets that can help preserve value during periods of financial instability.
From a technical standpoint, gold is currently trading within a consolidation range just below its recent highs. The Renko chart highlights a resistance zone around the $5,225 level, where several attempts to extend the rally have stalled in recent sessions.
After testing this resistance, price action pulled back and entered a compression phase around the $5,200 region. This level has repeatedly acted as a short-term equilibrium point, where buying interest has emerged to stabilize the market.
Additional support is visible near $5,190, which has served as a secondary defense area during recent pullbacks. The proximity of these levels suggests that gold is currently moving within a relatively narrow range while awaiting fresh macroeconomic catalysts.
Momentum indicators also indicate that the market is rebuilding directional energy rather than entering a prolonged reversal. Oscillators have retreated from overbought territory and are stabilizing as price consolidates ahead of the upcoming U.S. CPI release.
Meanwhile, the ECRO indicator on the chart signals a compression phase, suggesting that volatility is temporarily contracting as the market digests recent price movements. Such compression patterns often appear before major macro events, as traders reduce risk exposure ahead of potentially market-moving economic data.
CPI release may determine gold’s next directional move
The upcoming inflation report represents a pivotal moment for gold markets.
If the CPI data confirms that inflationary pressures remain persistent, investors may increase allocations to precious metals as a hedge against potential monetary instability and declining purchasing power. Such an outcome could allow gold to challenge the resistance zone near recent highs and potentially reignite bullish momentum.
A sustained move above the $5,225 region would indicate that buyers are regaining control of the trend and could open the door for further upside across the precious metals complex.
However, if the inflation data comes in below expectations, markets may interpret the result as a sign that price pressures are gradually easing. In that scenario, gold could enter a deeper consolidation phase as investors adjust expectations for monetary policy and interest rates set by the Federal Reserve.
For now, gold remains positioned near a key technical threshold as markets await confirmation from macroeconomic data. The CPI release will likely determine whether the current consolidation evolves into a renewed bullish advance or develops into a broader pause within the ongoing precious metals trend.
Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday as investors questioned whether a planned large-scale release of strategic reserves by the International Energy Agency would be enough to offset potential supply disruptions caused by the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran.
Brent crude futures rose 59 cents, or 0.7%, to $88.39 a barrel by 07:27 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained 98 cents, or 1.2%, to $84.43 per barrel.
Both benchmarks had extended losses earlier in Asian trading after plunging more than 11% on Tuesday, despite U.S. crude initially jumping 5% at the market open.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the proposed IEA release would surpass the 182 million barrels collectively released by member countries in 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said such a stockpile release could offset roughly 12 days of an estimated 15.4 million barrels-per-day disruption in Gulf exports.
Meanwhile, the conflict continued to escalate. The U.S. and Israel launched what both the Pentagon and Iranian sources described as the most intense airstrikes of the war on Tuesday. The United States Central Command also said the U.S. military had destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, after Donald Trump warned that any mines placed in the waterway must be removed immediately.
Some analysts remained skeptical that the reserve release would significantly ease market tensions. Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, said such moves were unlikely to solve the crisis, adding that oil prices would largely depend on how long the conflict with Iran continues. Strategic signals, including potential reserve releases, may help temper near-term price spikes, he added.
Leaders of the Group of Seven have also convened to discuss a coordinated emergency stockpile release. Emmanuel Macron is set to host a virtual meeting with other G7 leaders to assess the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy markets and possible responses.
Trump has repeatedly stated that the U.S. is prepared to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. However, sources told Reuters that the United States Navy has so far declined shipping industry requests for escorts, citing high security risks.
Supply concerns remain
Energy infrastructure disruptions have also added to supply worries. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company reportedly shut down its Ruwais refinery after a drone strike caused a fire at the complex.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is attempting to increase shipments via the Red Sea. However, current export levels remain far below what would be needed to fully offset the decline in flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The kingdom is relying on the Red Sea port of Yanbu to boost shipments as neighbors such as Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have already reduced production.
Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates the war is currently cutting Gulf oil and refined product supplies by about 15 million barrels per day, a disruption that could potentially push crude prices as high as $150 per barrel.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that even a quick resolution to the conflict could still leave energy markets facing several weeks of disruption.
Meanwhile, signs of strong demand also supported prices. Data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated that U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all declined last week.
Gold prices edged higher in Asian trading on Wednesday as investors weighed mixed developments surrounding the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, particularly concerns about energy market disruptions and the possibility that the fighting could ease.
Traders are also awaiting U.S. consumer inflation data for February for fresh insight into the health of the world’s largest economy, although the report is unlikely to fully capture the recent surge in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $5,204.29 an ounce as of 01:17 ET (05:17 GMT), while gold futures slipped 0.5% to $5,213.11 per ounce.
Gold breaks above $5,200/oz as markets weigh mixed Iran signals
Gold’s gains on Wednesday pushed prices above the $5,000–$5,200 per ounce range that had contained trading over the past week, though it remained uncertain whether the breakout would hold.
The precious metal has experienced sharp volatility in recent weeks, retreating significantly after reaching a record high near $5,600 per ounce in late January.
Conflicting developments surrounding the Iran war also contributed to choppy trading this week. U.S. President Donald Trump said late Monday that the conflict was nearing an end. However, exchanges of strikes between the U.S., Israel, and Iran continued into early Wednesday, marking the twelfth straight day of fighting.
Investors remain concerned that a surge in energy-driven inflation could prompt global central banks to adopt a more hawkish policy stance—an outlook that typically weighs on gold. As a result, the metal’s gains were capped despite rising safe-haven demand.
Elsewhere in the precious metals market, price movements were relatively muted. Spot silver slipped 0.1% to $88.2245 an ounce, while spot platinum edged up 0.3% to $2,208.89 per ounce.
U.S. CPI report in focus for fresh clues on inflation
Markets are awaiting the release of U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for February later on Wednesday, which is expected to offer clearer signals on inflation and the outlook for interest rates in the world’s largest economy.
Headline CPI is forecast to hold steady at 2.4% year-on-year, while core CPI is projected to remain unchanged at 2.5%.
Although the data is unlikely to capture the recent spike in energy prices triggered by the Iran conflict, investors will still monitor the report closely for indications on consumer spending trends and the broader health of the U.S. economy.
The CPI release follows a weaker-than-expected February payrolls report, which has fueled some concerns that economic momentum in the United States may be slowing.
Gold declines as a surge in oil prices pushes the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields above important levels.
However, safe-haven demand tied to tensions in the Middle East is helping limit further losses despite the rise in yields.
For now, the key levels to watch are $5,000 as support and the $5,150–$5,200 resistance zone.
Gold has begun the week on a weaker note after recording its first weekly loss since the sharp drop at the end of January. Although prices attempted to rebound in the latter half of last week, the recovery was not enough to offset the earlier declines.
The move largely reflects the sharp surge in oil prices, which has pushed both the U.S. dollar and bond yields higher. With oil climbing above $100 today, gold slipped again at the start of the session. As a result, gold is currently caught in a difficult position: escalating tensions in the Middle East are generating some safe-haven demand, but the strengthening U.S. dollar and rising bond yields are acting as significant headwinds.
Stronger U.S. Dollar and Rising Yields Offset Safe-Haven Demand
Rising yields typically weigh on assets like gold and silver, which do not generate interest and involve storage costs. In recent months, however, gold has shown notable resilience even as bond yields remained elevated. That strength faded somewhat last week, and at the start of today’s session gold slipped again—an unsurprising move given the firmer U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields.
As the session progressed, gold did recover from its earlier lows, though it was still trading in negative territory at the time of writing.
The recent spike in oil prices has had a mixed impact on gold. On one side, the rise in bond yields and the stronger U.S. dollar has put downward pressure on the metal. On the other, safe-haven demand has continued to limit the downside. If oil prices were to ease somewhat—perhaps through a coordinated release of strategic reserves—gold could find room to move higher again.
Overall, gold’s price action remains volatile and largely in a consolidation phase, offering both bullish and bearish traders opportunities amid the heightened market swings.
Key Gold Price Levels to Watch
For now, the market appears to be trading strictly between key levels, and this pattern is likely to continue until we see a decisive breakout above resistance or a breakdown below the major support levels protecting the downside.
So, which levels are the most important to watch?
Support is currently located between $5,000 and $5,050. This zone has been tested several times from above in recent days and has held up well so far.
As long as gold does not break decisively below the $5,000 level, the overall bias could still favor the upside. Despite the recent rebound in the U.S. dollar and bond yields, gold’s broader trend has remained bullish, making it difficult to dismiss that outlook—especially given the ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
On the resistance side, the key range lies between $5,150 and $5,200. This area has been tested multiple times since the breakout seen last Tuesday, which initially appeared to signal a potential turning point for gold.
However, there has been little meaningful follow-through to the downside. The fact that gold has managed to hold steady suggests it may be forming a base around $5,000 before possibly attempting another move higher.
For now, the focus remains on these levels. Whether gold breaks above resistance or falls below support will likely determine its next short-term direction.
Gold prices increased during Asian trading on Tuesday but remained within a narrow range as investors looked for clearer signals about a potential de-escalation in the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran.
The precious metal advanced alongside a broader improvement in market risk sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could end soon and said Washington was also considering steps to help curb the recent surge in oil prices.
Spot gold climbed 0.8% to $5,175.48 per ounce as of 01:55 ET (05:55 GMT), while gold futures gained 1.6% to $5,184.79 per ounce. Spot prices had edged slightly higher on Monday after experiencing significant volatility throughout the session.
Gold stays within the $5,000–$5,200 range as safe-haven demand remains mixed.
Gold stayed firmly within the $5,000–$5,200 per ounce range set over the past week, as traders weighed a wave of uncertainty surrounding the global economy.
Although the conflict with Iran boosted safe-haven demand for gold, gains were limited by worries that the crisis could fuel inflation, potentially prompting more hawkish policies from major central banks.
Analysts at ANZ also pointed out that gold’s strong rally this year has faced bouts of profit-taking, as investors looked to raise liquidity during a sharp selloff in global equity markets.
Other precious metals moved higher on Tuesday, with spot silver climbing nearly 6% to $89.1915 per ounce, while spot platinum gained 0.7% to $2,201.48 per ounce. In the industrial metals market, LME copper futures rose 1.3% to $13,095.30 a tonne.
Trump signals Iran tensions may ease, boosting oil supply outlook.
Risk sentiment improved on Tuesday and oil prices declined after Donald Trump said several times on Monday that the war with Iran could soon come to an end. Trump also floated potential steps to reduce supply disruptions caused by the conflict, including temporarily easing sanctions on certain oil exporters, particularly Russia.
However, he did not provide a clear timeline for any de-escalation and continued to maintain a tough stance toward Tehran. Trump warned that the Islamic Republic would face severe consequences if it attempted to block the Strait of Hormuz.
“We will strike easily destroyable targets that would make it virtually impossible for Iran to rebuild as a nation again — death, fire and fury will follow,” Trump said.
Iran dismissed Trump’s statements and reiterated that it would continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz until attacks by the United States and Israel against Tehran cease.
The conflict entered its eleventh consecutive day on Tuesday, with tensions across the Middle East showing little sign of easing. A prolonged war is expected to keep supporting gold prices, as safe-haven demand remains strong amid rising inflation risks driven by disruptions in the oil market.
European natural gas prices surged again on Monday, extending the sharp gains recorded last week as the escalating Middle East conflict continued to disrupt global energy flows and unsettle markets.
By 08:50 GMT, benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures had climbed 16.6% to €62.26 per megawatt-hour after earlier hitting a session high of €69.50. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas futures rose 5.4% to $3.36 per MMBtu.
The latest rally adds to an extraordinary surge last week as traders responded to growing supply risks. Monday’s jump was triggered by the forced shutdown of Ras Laffan in Qatar — the world’s largest liquefied natural gas complex — sparking concerns over the availability of global LNG shipments. Even if hostilities were to end immediately, market participants warn that supply-chain disruptions could linger.
“European natural gas rose 67% last week, its biggest weekly gain since the 2022 energy crisis,” analysts at ANZ said. The disruption comes at a particularly vulnerable moment for Europe.
Western Europe is entering a period of relatively low gas storage levels, leaving the region more exposed to supply shocks and raising concerns about its ability to rebuild inventories ahead of the winter heating season.
Energy markets more broadly have also been shaken by the conflict. U.S. crude oil futures climbed back above $100 a barrel as investors increasingly priced in the risk of a prolonged supply shock from the Middle East.
The surge in oil and gas prices has also reverberated across financial markets, pushing global bond prices lower as investors reassess the outlook for inflation and interest rates amid rising energy costs.
Oil prices surged about 25% on Monday, reaching their highest level since mid-2022. Brent crude was on course for its largest single-day increase on record, while gold declined by around 2%. The sharp moves came as the escalating war involving Iran tightened global energy supplies, strengthened the U.S. dollar, and reduced expectations that interest rates will be cut soon.
Agricultural markets also moved higher, particularly edible oils, which tend to follow crude oil prices because vegetable oils are widely used in biofuel production. Aluminium prices edged higher due to supply concerns, although other industrial metals struggled under pressure from the stronger U.S. dollar.
According to IG market analyst Tony Sycamore, the intense market reaction reflects the lack of any clear path to de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. He noted that the situation has turned into a high-stakes standoff where neither side appears ready to back down, increasing the risk of lasting economic damage. Meanwhile, Iran announced that Mojtaba Khamenei will succeed his father Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader, signaling that hardline leadership remains firmly in control in Tehran during the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel.
Oil rally pushes agricultural markets higher
Brent crude appeared set to record its largest single-day gain both in percentage and absolute terms. The surge was driven by the widening U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran, which prompted some major Middle Eastern producers to reduce supply and raised fears of prolonged disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint.
During the session, Brent crude futures climbed to about $119.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached roughly $119.48 per barrel.
Analysts at ING Group said in a note that conditions appear to be worsening further. They added that upstream oil production has begun to shut down as producers face limited storage capacity. As a result, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have started cutting their oil output. In agricultural markets, Malaysian palm oil prices jumped about 9%, while Chicago soybean oil climbed to its highest level since late 2022, supported by the strong rally in crude oil. Wheat prices reached their highest point since June 2024, and corn rose to a 10-month high.
Meanwhile, gold dropped more than 2% as a stronger U.S. dollar put pressure on dollar-denominated bullion. Rising energy costs also increased inflation concerns and further reduced expectations that interest rates will be lowered in the near term.
The U.S. dollar remained close to a three-month high, which made gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Concerns that higher oil prices could drive inflation and delay rate cuts appear to have pushed U.S. bond yields and the dollar higher, offsetting gold’s usual safe-haven demand and sending prices lower.
Aluminium surges on supply concerns
Aluminium prices surged to their highest level in four years as supply worries intensified amid the Middle East conflict. Benchmark three-month aluminium contracts on the London Metal Exchange rose to about $3,544 per ton, the highest level since March 2022.
Two major Gulf producers—Qatalum and Aluminium Bahrain—have already declared force majeure on shipments as tensions in the region escalate. However, other base metals faced downward pressure due to the strengthening U.S. dollar.
Silver faced a difficult week as the U.S. dollar strengthened for much of the period, though it’s important to remember that its recent collapse wiped out many retail trading accounts.
That said, this is a market worth monitoring closely because the $80 level represents an important support area and sits near the center of the broader consolidation range.
If the price breaks below this week’s candlestick, it could open the door for silver to decline toward the $70 level, where I also expect support to emerge.
Overall, the market has been quite volatile and choppy, and that pattern is likely to persist. Because of this, careful position sizing will be essential.
S&P 500
The S&P market declined quite sharply over the week, testing the 5,000 level. This level is a major round number with strong psychological importance, so it’s an area many investors are watching closely.
If the market breaks below 5,000, it could pave the way for a drop toward 4,800, with the possibility of quickly moving further down to around 4,600.
From a longer-term perspective, the 5,000 level may continue to act as a price magnet for the market.
If that remains the case, we could see extended sideways movement around this zone, although my broader outlook still leans bullish over the long run.
USD/CAD
The US dollar first strengthened against the Canadian dollar, rising to test the 1.3750 level, but then reversed and began showing signs of weakness. Meanwhile, the 1.35 level below stands as an important support area that many market participants are closely monitoring.
It is also worth noting that the Canadian dollar has been gaining some strength on the back of rising oil prices. Whether that trend will continue is uncertain, but if oil fails to maintain its momentum, a reversal could follow.
For now, the market remains within the same consolidation range that it has revisited repeatedly.
USD/MXN
The US dollar surged sharply against the Mexican peso during the week, but in reality a pullback had been due. The key question now is whether the 18-peso level will act as strong enough resistance to reverse the move.
If it does, it could present a solid opportunity to take short positions. However, if the market manages a daily close above the 18-peso level, it may signal that the recent trend is coming to an end.
All things considered, this is a market where traders may look for signs of exhaustion to sell into, as the interest rate differential still generally favors Mexico.
Bitcoin
The Bitcoin market has been quite volatile during the week, but it did manage to break above the $72,000 level. This is notable given the overwhelmingly negative headlines around the world at the moment, and it’s a market I’ll be monitoring very closely.
If the market can close above the weekly high and continue moving higher, Bitcoin could begin to rally strongly. There may still be debate about what Bitcoin truly represents, but one thing seems clear—it appears to be heavily oversold.
The key question now is whether buyers will step back in. On the other hand, if the price drops below the $60,000 level, it could trigger a sharp and widespread sell-off.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 has been volatile but has continued to show resilience. This is a pattern that appears repeatedly in the US stock market, even when there have been plenty of reasons for it to break down. In itself, that persistence likely says a lot about the underlying strength of the market.
What I think it tells you is that given enough time, the US stock market, and in this case the Nasdaq 100, will find buyers on any pullback and selling just does not seem to be working out.
EUR/USD
The euro weakened significantly during the week. Much of this appears to be driven by expectations that energy costs in the European Union will rise sharply, which could heavily influence the options available to the European Central Bank.
Keep a close eye on the 1.15 level. If the market breaks below that point, the euro could decline sharply.
For now, the market remains within the same consolidation range it has been trading in for some time. I do not expect significant movement at the moment, but the 1.15 level will be important to watch.
USD/JPY
The US dollar continues to signal the possibility of a major breakout against the Japanese yen, although it has not achieved it yet. The ¥158 level marks the start of a strong resistance zone that extends up to the ¥160 level.
If the market manages to break above that area, it is likely to move significantly higher. In the short term, pullbacks could present buying opportunities as traders look to pick up the dollar at lower prices.
Over the longer term, I expect an eventual breakout to the upside. However, the current situation makes it challenging to short the market, while buying directly at this resistance zone is also difficult. It may be best to wait for better value and take advantage of opportunities when they appear.
U.S. crude oil futures surged on Friday as the widening U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran disrupted global oil supply expectations.
Brent crude settled at $92.69 per barrel, rising $7.28 or 8.5%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $9.89, or 12.2%, to close at $90.90 per barrel.
On a weekly basis, WTI jumped 35.6% and Brent gained about 27%, marking their strongest weekly advances since the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020.
For the second straight day, U.S. crude futures outperformed Brent as refiners around the world rushed to secure alternative oil supplies to offset potential disruptions from the Middle East.
According to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, refiners and trading firms are actively seeking substitute barrels, with the United States — the world’s largest oil producer — emerging as a key supplier.
Janiv Shah, vice president of oil analytics at Rystad Energy, noted that several factors contributed to the wider gains in WTI compared with Brent. Strong refinery activity supported by attractive refining margins, along with favorable arbitrage opportunities for shipments to Europe, helped drive demand for U.S. crude.
Could oil exceed $100?
Qatar’s energy minister warned in an interview with the Financial Times that Gulf energy producers might halt exports within weeks if the conflict escalates further. Such a move, he suggested, could push oil prices as high as $150 per barrel.
John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said the situation is increasingly alarming. “The worst-case scenario is unfolding right in front of us,” Kilduff said, adding that forecasts of oil reaching $100 per barrel now appear increasingly realistic.
Oil prices began their sharp rally after the United States and Israel carried out strikes on Iran last Saturday, which prompted Iran to halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Around 20% of the world’s daily oil supply normally passes through this key shipping route. With the strait effectively closed for seven days, roughly 140 million barrels of crude — equivalent to about 1.4 days of global demand — have been prevented from reaching international markets.
The conflict has expanded across major energy-producing regions in the Middle East, disrupting production and forcing several refineries and liquefied natural gas facilities to shut down.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said oil prices are likely to continue rising for as long as the strait remains closed. He noted that markets previously believed U.S. President Donald Trump might eventually scale back the conflict to avoid higher oil prices, but the longer the situation persists, the greater the perceived supply risk becomes.
In an interview with Reuters on Thursday, Trump said he was not worried about rising gasoline prices in the United States linked to the conflict, commenting that “if they rise, they rise.”
Earlier on Friday, oil prices briefly dropped by more than 1% after speculation that the U.S. Treasury Department might take steps to counter the surge in energy costs.
On Thursday, the Treasury issued waivers allowing companies to purchase sanctioned Russian oil. The first approvals were granted to Indian refiners, which have since bought millions of barrels of Russian crude.
U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters on Thursday that the United States should play a role in determining Iran’s next leader, adding that it would be “great” if Iranian Kurdish fighters based in Iraq crossed into Iran to attack government security forces.
In a phone interview, Trump said he believes the successor to the late Ali Khamenei is unlikely to be Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who had been considered a leading candidate after his father was killed in a military strike at the beginning of the war.
“We’ll need to select that individual together with Iran,” Trump said, emphasizing that Washington must be involved in the decision.
The president also voiced support for Iranian Kurdish forces launching attacks against Iranian security forces. His comments came six days after the United States and Israel began strikes on Iran, a conflict that has killed more than 1,000 people—including at least six U.S. service members—and destabilized the wider Middle East.
“I think it would be great if they did that—I fully support it,” Trump said regarding Kurdish fighters.
Discussing Iran’s leadership transition, Trump compared the situation to Venezuela, where U.S. intervention removed Nicolás Maduro earlier in the year, leaving his deputy Delcy Rodríguez in power—a development Trump praised.
Trump said the United States wants to help shape Iran’s future leadership so the country does not repeatedly return to conflict every few years. He added that Washington hopes a new leader would benefit both the Iranian people and the nation as a whole.
After saying that Mojtaba Khamenei, who had been viewed as a leading contender to succeed his father, was unlikely to become Iran’s next leader, Donald Trump did not provide further details.
When asked whether the exiled Iranian crown prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah, could be considered for the role, Trump replied that all possibilities were still open, noting that the situation remained in its early stages.
Openness to Kurdish involvement
Responding to a question about whether the United States might provide air support for Iranian Kurdish forces considering an operation in western Iran, Trump declined to give a direct answer but suggested that their goal would be victory.
“If they decide to move forward with it, that’s fine,” he said.
According to three sources familiar with the matter, Iranian Kurdish militias have recently been in discussions with the United States about the possibility—and the strategy—of launching attacks on Iranian security forces in the country’s western regions.
The coalition of Iranian Kurdish groups, based along the Iran-Iraq border in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region, has reportedly been preparing for such an operation. Their aim would be to weaken Iran’s military while U.S. and Israeli strikes continue targeting sites across the country.
Trump also expressed confidence that the strategic shipping corridor known as the Strait of Hormuz would remain open.
Damage and energy market pressure
Iran has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow passage between Iran and Oman—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass.
Shipping activity through the vital energy route has already slowed sharply after Iranian attacks struck six vessels, raising concerns about disruptions to global energy markets.
“They don’t really have a navy anymore—their fleet is essentially destroyed,” said Donald Trump, adding that he is monitoring the situation in the Strait of Hormuz very closely.
As the conflict intensified on Thursday, additional oil tankers were attacked in Gulf waters. At the same time, Iranian drones reportedly crossed into Azerbaijan, raising fears that the crisis could expand to involve more energy-producing regions. Since the fighting began, global oil prices have surged.
Trump said he was not worried about the rise in gasoline prices, arguing that they would likely fall quickly once the conflict ends. He added that even if fuel costs increase temporarily, the broader strategic issues at stake are far more important.
The president declined to estimate how long the war might continue but said events were progressing quickly and with greater force than many had anticipated. He added that, in his view, the conflict was unfolding faster and more decisively than expected.
Time-cycle analysis suggests the market is approaching an important reversal window between March 6 and March 9, followed by a secondary expansion phase from March 13 to March 16. Historically, silver tends to produce strong directional moves when periods of volatility compression align with these harmonic time cycles.
The recent consolidation within the $81–$85 range indicates the market is absorbing liquidity after the sharp volatility spike seen earlier in the week. If prices remain supported above the $81–$83 zone, the next major resistance cluster is expected between $90 and $97, an area that aligns with previous structural highs as well as the VC PMI Weekly Sell 1 level. A decisive break above this region could ignite a fresh volatility expansion, potentially resembling past major rallies in silver.
Silver futures are trading around $83.35, stabilizing after an intense bout of volatility that drove prices down from a $97.30 high to $78.06 in just two trading sessions. This roughly $19 price swing over a short period represents a classic volatility expansion phase, which historically tends to be followed by strong directional moves once the market completes its mean-reversion process.
According to the VC PMI framework, the Daily Mean is positioned near $83.50, a level the market is currently attempting to reclaim. A sustained close above this point could trigger bullish momentum, with upside targets at the Daily Sell 1 level around $86.43 and the Weekly Buy 1 level near $87.31.
From a structural perspective, the drop from $97.30 appears to have completed a corrective harmonic retracement pattern, testing several key Fibonacci levels including the 61.8%, 50%, and 38.2% retracements shown on the chart. Ultimately, prices found support slightly below the Weekly Buy 2 level near $81.34, reinforcing the 95% probability mean-reversion zone identified by the VC PMI model when price deviates significantly from its statistical mean.
The time-cycle analysis indicates that silver is nearing a crucial short-term reversal window between March 6 and March 9, followed by another notable cycle expansion phase from March 13 to March 16. These cycles are derived from harmonic timing patterns that often coincide with liquidity shifts in futures markets. When such timing windows align with prices trading close to VC PMI support zones, the likelihood of a directional reversal tends to increase significantly.
Using W.D. Gann’s Square-of-9 geometry, the recent high at $97.30 marks a significant harmonic pivot within the current market cycle. The subsequent pullback toward the $78–$81 region aligns closely with a rotational angle on the Square-of-9 grid, suggesting that the market may have completed a geometric correction before attempting to resume upward momentum.
Key harmonic resistance levels derived from the Square-of-9 now cluster around $90, $93, and $97, which closely correspond with the VC PMI Sell 1 and Sell 2 resistance zones.
If prices continue to hold above the $81–$83 support area, silver could enter a new expansion phase targeting the $90–$97 region during the next cycle window. Historically, volatility expansion phases in precious metals often precede strong upside moves, and the tightening price structure within the current consolidation suggests that a breakout may develop as the market approaches mid-March.
Oil prices climbed more than 3% on Thursday, extending their rally as the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran disrupted energy supplies and shipping routes. The tensions prompted some major producers to reduce output while others took steps to secure supply. Brent crude rose $2.64, or 3.2%, to $84.04 per barrel by 1425 GMT, marking a fifth straight session of gains, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased $3.35, or 4.5%, to $78.01.
The premium of prompt Brent futures over the six-month contract approached its widest level since July 2022, signaling tighter global supply. Renewed tanker attacks in the Gulf and China’s move to curb fuel exports also supported prices, according to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, who noted that refined fuel markets are showing stress due to reduced Middle East exports. Some refineries in the Middle East, China, and India have shut crude units amid the conflict, while European diesel futures surged to their highest level since October 2022 at $1,130 per tonne.
Attacks on oil tankers continued in the Gulf, including damage to the Bahamas-flagged tanker Sonangol Namibe near Iraq’s Khor al Zubair port. Around 300 tankers remained stranded in the Strait of Hormuz as traffic through the vital chokepoint nearly halted. Natural gas prices also rose after Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia could stop its remaining gas flows to Europe, while Qatar declared force majeure on LNG shipments. European gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub for April delivery climbed nearly 3% to around 50 euros per MWh, bringing gains since Friday to nearly 60%.
Meanwhile, Iran launched missiles at Israel as the conflict entered its sixth day, following a U.S. submarine strike that sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka. Analysts at J.P. Morgan warned that oil supplies from Iraq and Kuwait could begin shutting down if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, potentially removing up to 3.3 million barrels per day from the market. Iraq has already reduced production by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day due to limited storage and export routes, while Qatar said it may take at least a month to restore normal LNG export levels.
Oil prices climbed sharply again on Wednesday, building on strong gains from the previous two sessions, as the escalating confrontation among the U.S., Israel, and Iran heightened fears of supply disruptions.
By 03:40 ET (08:40 GMT), Brent Oil Futures for May delivery had advanced 3.5% to $84.25 per barrel, while WTI Crude Oil Futures rose 3.4% to $77.10 per barrel. Both benchmarks had already rallied nearly 5% on Tuesday, after jumping about 7% at the start of the week, with Brent touching its highest level since July 2024.
Supply risks dominate sentiment
The conflict erupted over the weekend when U.S. and Israeli forces carried out coordinated strikes on Iranian military targets, reportedly killing Ali Khamenei. Fighting continued into Wednesday, with U.S. Admiral Brad Cooper stating that more than 2,000 Iranian targets had been struck.
Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks on neighboring Arab countries hosting U.S. bases and has issued threats to international shipping. Oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint responsible for roughly 20% of global crude shipments—have been specifically targeted.
The mounting threat to this key transit route for exporters such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE has injected a sizable geopolitical risk premium into oil markets. ING analysts noted that disruptions in the Strait are beginning to impact upstream flows. They also cited reports that Iraq has curtailed output at its largest oilfields, including Rumaila and West Qurna 2, taking around 1.2 million barrels per day offline.
Goldman raises 2026 outlook
On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs lifted its average price forecast for the second quarter of 2026, raising Brent by $10 to $76 per barrel and WTI by $9 to $71.
The bank’s projections assume that reduced flows through Hormuz will significantly draw down OECD inventories and Middle East production in March. Goldman emphasized that risks remain skewed to the upside, particularly if export disruptions persist longer than expected or if oil infrastructure sustains damage.
It added that if volumes through Hormuz remain constrained for another five weeks, Brent could climb to $100 per barrel—a level likely to trigger demand destruction to prevent inventories from dropping too low.
However, analysts cautioned that the supply-driven rally could eventually undermine demand. Prolonged high prices may stoke inflation and compound broader economic risks, potentially dampening consumption and weighing on crude prices over time.
U.S. pledges support for shipping
Investors are also watching remarks from Donald Trump, who said the U.S. Navy would escort commercial vessels if necessary and pledged government backing to ensure safe passage through the Strait.
ING pointed out that insurers have begun withdrawing war-risk coverage for ships transiting Hormuz. While U.S. assurances may offer some relief, analysts cautioned that restoring confidence in shipping lanes will take time.
Although military escalation has fueled the rally, signs of coordinated international efforts to safeguard maritime traffic could help limit further near-term gains.
Gold futures are hovering around $5,185, validating a decisive breakout from a multi-year consolidation range and signaling what looks like the hyperbolic stage of the ongoing bull run. Based on VC PMI modeling and Square-of-9 harmonic projections, the next key resistance zone is projected between $5,400 and $5,850.
Should upside momentum carry through the upcoming cycle window in late March, prices may stretch toward the $6,000 area by mid-April, where more substantial harmonic resistance is expected. The sharp upward angle of the moving averages reflects strong institutional participation, implying that any pullbacks are likely to represent brief consolidations within a broader bullish advance.
On the monthly continuation chart, gold futures display one of the most pronounced structural rallies in precious metals history. Following years of range-bound trade between roughly $1,700 and $2,100, gold broke out in 2024 and has since accelerated into what can be characterized as a hyperbolic expansion phase.
With prices now near $5,185—well above the primary moving-average framework—the technical backdrop confirms a robust momentum environment typical of the later stages of a long-term bull market.
From a VC PMI mean-reversion standpoint, price action unfolds in oscillating waves around equilibrium. When the market stretches materially above its mean, it reflects powerful upside momentum—but also a rising likelihood of heightened volatility.
On the current monthly timeframe, gold is trading well above its 9-month and 18-month moving averages. Historically, such extended positioning tends to occur during periods of accelerated institutional accumulation and heightened global monetary stress, conditions that often accompany the more explosive phases of a long-term bull cycle.
Market Timing Windows
Applying the VC PMI time-cycle framework alongside harmonic rhythm analysis, the following timing windows are anticipated for March and April:
March 7–10 – Initial volatility window where the market may pause or consolidate following the recent sharp advance.
March 18–22 – Secondary cycle pivot zone, a period that often reveals whether the trend resumes or shifts into corrective behavior.
March 27–31 – Key inflection window, coinciding with futures delivery dynamics and potential liquidity realignments.
April 12–18 – Major harmonic cycle window that could generate either a short-term peak or an accelerated continuation breakout.
These timeframes should be viewed as probabilistic windows, not precise reversal dates. In hyperbolic market phases, price action often accelerates into projected cycle periods, followed by short-lived pullbacks before the broader uptrend resumes.
Square-of-9 Harmonic Resistance
Applying W.D. Gann’s Square-of-9 framework to prior breakout levels highlights the next key harmonic price objectives. Current projections indicate that gold is advancing toward a significant resistance band between $5,400 and $5,850.
Should the market maintain monthly closes above the $5,400 threshold, the Square-of-9 model opens the door to the next harmonic cluster in the $6,000–$6,300 range—closely aligned with the broader cycle window projected into April.
How price reacts at these geometric resistance zones—particularly in conjunction with the upcoming time-cycle windows—will help determine whether gold enters a temporary consolidation phase or continues its acceleration within a larger liquidity-driven advance.
Structural Interpretation
The pronounced upward slope of the moving averages confirms that gold is operating in the momentum stage of a secular bull market. Historically, such phases unfold during periods when global capital rotates toward hard assets amid currency debasement, geopolitical tension, and expanding sovereign debt burdens.
Although intermittent pullbacks are normal in strong trends, the broader structure remains constructive as long as price holds above the monthly mean zone near $4,300–$4,400, which now serves as major structural support.
Oil markets are holding near the top of their recent trading band as participants factor in an added layer of logistical risk to global energy supply chains.
Crude has rebounded toward the 76–77 zone after strong buying interest emerged around 72, where support formed amid renewed tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Concerns over tanker traffic and potential shipping bottlenecks prompted buyers to step in aggressively at that level.
Although the market has not yet entered a full volatility breakout, recent price action indicates that crude is beginning to price in a geopolitical premium—driven less by outright production losses and more by uncertainty surrounding transportation routes.
At this stage, oil appears to be recalibrating to elevated logistics risk rather than responding to an immediate supply shock.
Hormuz Strains Redirect Market Focus to Supply Chain Risk
Recent events surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have underscored that energy security depends not only on production levels, but also on the reliability of transport routes.
Approximately one-fifth of the world’s traded crude moves through this narrow passage linking the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. Even limited interruptions to traffic through the corridor can quickly spill over into freight markets, insurance costs, and tanker availability.
Signs of mounting congestion and heightened caution among tanker operators have already driven freight rates higher, while insurers are reassessing war-risk premiums for ships crossing the region.
Such bottlenecks may not immediately eliminate physical supply, but they can slow the circulation of oil through global networks. In commodity markets, logistical slowdowns frequently manifest as increased price volatility.
Physical Flows Matter as Much as Production
The current backdrop highlights a familiar theme in oil markets: disruptions to transportation networks can tighten supply perceptions even when overall output remains steady.
When tanker routes are constrained, ships may need to reroute or wait offshore, effectively extending supply chains and temporarily shrinking available shipping capacity. That dynamic can create pockets of tightness at key delivery hubs, even if global stockpiles appear sufficient on paper.
In recent trading sessions, this logistical dimension has become a more influential force in price formation. Market participants are increasingly monitoring tanker movements, port congestion, and freight costs as real-time signals of stress within the physical crude system.
Consequently, oil is now trading not just on traditional supply-demand fundamentals, but also on the durability and flexibility of the infrastructure responsible for moving those barrels worldwide.
Oil has staged a decisive rebound from the 72 region, marking a notable shift in short-term structure.
From a technical standpoint, the Renko pattern reflects a clear momentum transition following the recent pullback. The 72 area emerged as a strong demand zone, where buyers stepped in forcefully after a run of declining bricks signaled waning downside pressure. That reversal sparked a steady advance, lifting crude back toward the top of its near-term trading range.
Support has now rotated higher, clustering in the 75.0–74.7 band. This zone has functioned as a pivot throughout the latest consolidation phase and represents the first layer of defense should prices retrace.
Beneath current levels, the more meaningful structural support remains around 72.1, which formed the foundation of the latest corrective phase.
On the upside, the 76.3–76.8 range is shaping up as a key resistance corridor. Multiple rallies have stalled in that area, indicating that market participants are still weighing whether the prevailing geopolitical risk premium is strong enough to fuel a sustained breakout.
For now, the broader pattern appears to reflect orderly consolidation after a sharp rebound, rather than the early stages of a renewed bearish trend.
Momentum Signals Indicate a Mature Expansion Phase
Momentum metrics reinforce the view that crude is moving out of a compression environment and into a more developed directional cycle.
The ECRO profile remains elevated, hovering near the top of its historical range. This typically characterizes conditions where volatility has already expanded and the market is consolidating those gains, rather than initiating a fresh breakout. Meanwhile, stochastic momentum has rebounded toward its upper boundary after briefly easing during the recent pullback.
Together, these signals imply that upside pressure remains intact, though the market may need additional consolidation before launching its next impulsive move. In essence, the current hesitation near resistance appears to reflect constructive digestion of prior gains, not a sign of trend exhaustion.
Freight Markets Could Provide the Next Major Signal
Looking ahead, shipping conditions in the Persian Gulf are likely to remain a critical variable for oil markets.
If tanker congestion worsens or freight rates continue climbing, traders may begin assigning a higher logistical risk premium to crude. Transportation disruptions typically ripple through the system gradually, meaning their pricing impact often builds over time rather than materializing as a single abrupt shock.
On the other hand, if shipping activity stabilizes and geopolitical tensions ease, a portion of the recently embedded premium could unwind. In that case, crude would likely shift back to trading primarily on macroeconomic drivers such as global demand expectations, currency fluctuations, and inventory trends.
For now, however, freight dynamics remain a central component of the oil narrative.
Outlook
Crude is navigating a landscape shaped as much by transportation risk as by traditional supply fundamentals. The rebound from the 72 area reinforces the view that buyers are still active on pullbacks, while the consolidation around 76 indicates the market is assessing whether current geopolitical risks justify a sustained breakout.
As long as prices remain above the 75–74.7 support zone, the near-term technical structure stays constructive. A clear push above 76.8 would signal renewed upside momentum and could pave the way for a broader expansion phase. Conversely, a decisive break below 74.7 would likely shift crude back into a wider consolidation pattern.
At present, price action reflects a market recalibrating to elevated transportation risk rather than responding to a structural collapse in supply.
WTI crude surged over 6%, climbing back above the $75 level amid heightened market tension.
Oil prices have shot up as fears grow that the escalating US-Iran conflict could disrupt global supply chains.
Goldman Sachs suggests the market is currently pricing in roughly an $18 per barrel geopolitical risk premium on crude.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped more than 6% on Tuesday, pushing past the key $75 threshold as the intensifying US–Iran conflict stoked concerns over possible supply disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz.
At the time of writing, the US crude benchmark is hovering near $76.16 — its highest level since June 2025.
Roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring its status as a critical energy chokepoint. Senior figures from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly announced the closure of the strait, warning that any vessel attempting to transit could be “set ablaze.”
Amid escalating security risks, many shipowners have suspended passage through the corridor, with several tankers waiting outside the waterway. In addition, Saudi Aramco has halted operations at its Ras Tanura refinery after a drone strike in the vicinity. The site has a processing capacity of approximately 550,000 barrels per day.
According to a Reuters report on Monday, Goldman Sachs estimates that oil prices currently include an $18 per barrel real-time geopolitical risk premium, based on a note issued Sunday. The bank added that the premium could ease to about $4 per barrel if only half of the Strait of Hormuz’s flows are disrupted for one month.
Heightened geopolitical tensions triggered a sharp 7–8% rally in WTI and Brent crude at the start of March. A confirmed technical breakout, along with a rising 200-day moving average, indicates the broader uptrend remains intact despite near-term resistance levels. Energy equities continue to outperform the wider market as volatility intensifies across commodities.
After Venezuela, attention has now shifted to Iran. Weekend strikes led by the U.S. and Israel on the oil-producing nation sent crude prices surging to open March. WTI climbed 7% to $72, while Brent advanced 8% to $79 per barrel.
Notably, the Brent–WTI spread widened beyond $7 — up from roughly $3 during last year’s more stable geopolitical environment — underscoring growing geopolitical risk.
Oil’s Rally Isn’t Exactly a Surprise
Crude’s advance didn’t begin overnight. WTI carved out a bottom in mid-December just below $55, marking a multi-year low as President Trump pushed for lower domestic energy prices. A decisive move above the 50-day moving average in January — followed by a breakout above the 200-day average weeks later — signaled that bulls were taking control. Now, $WTIC is trading at its strongest level since the U.S. struck key Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025.
The pressing question now is: Where does oil head next?
Let the Charts Do the Talking
As always, it helps to swap the macro lens for a technical one. Earlier this year, crude broke out of a downtrend formation — a clear signal to consider gaining exposure, whether through an oil ETF like the United States Oil Fund or by overweighting energy stocks.
At the time, the mid-$50 range was emerging as a critical support zone. Even amid bearish rhetoric from the White House and persistent talk of a supply glut, WTI continued grinding higher.
Near-Term Selling Pressure?
Taking a broader view, crude may now be running into resistance following a powerful 30% surge in less than three months. The rolling front-month contract spiked into the mid-$70s on Sunday night before easing back toward the low $70s — establishing a fresh battleground for traders.
Adding to the tension, the CBOE Oil Volatility Index has jumped sharply, signaling that a decisive breakout — or breakdown — could unfold quickly. Technically, WTI has also tagged a descending resistance line drawn from the Q3 2023 peak, doing so after one of its strongest single-day advances in the past five years.
Also note the upward slope of the 200-day moving average — a sign that bulls remain in control of the broader trend. While the current advance lacks the explosive momentum seen five years ago, when Brent surged to $135, there are still constructive elements supporting the bullish case. With the 200-day average gradually climbing and seasonally favorable calendar trends ahead, oil bulls have several tailwinds working in their favor.
Muted March, Lively April–June?
StockCharts’ seasonality data shows that while March has delivered mixed results over the past 20 years, the second quarter has produced consistently strong returns. In fact, the April-to-June period stands out as the best-performing three-month stretch of the year.
On the chart below, a push through the low $70s would suggest the next upside target lies in the $77–$80 area, where prices peaked between Q3 2024 and last June. Beyond that, a move toward $92–$93 is not out of the question.
For Fibonacci watchers, the 38.2% retracement of the March 2022 high to the December 2025 low comes into focus slightly above $82. Meanwhile, the 61.8% retracement level sits just shy of the $100 mark.
XOM & XLE Flash Clear Bullish Signals
Another way to capture both relative strength and absolute momentum in the energy complex is through energy equities. My preferred name there is Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM). Back in December, I highlighted $155 as an achievable target based on developing chart formations. The stock reached that level swiftly, peaking near $157 before retracing to around $145. Ahead of the weekend’s geopolitical flare-up, a daily bull flag appeared to be resolving in favor of the bulls.
Although not flawless, the “Extended Hours” feature on StockCharts SharpCharts helps assess more detailed after-hours and pre-market price action. That broader view shows how a pattern of lower highs and higher lows paved the way for a breakout within a larger uptrend. On Monday, XOM gapped sharply from $152.50 to $160.
A fresh measured-move target of $188 is now in play, derived from the January–February advance projected from the $150 consolidation breakout. That said, a price gap remains just above $150, and it could be revisited if West Texas Intermediate stalls near the previously mentioned downtrend resistance.
More broadly, Energy has emerged as the clear leader among the 11 S&P 500 sectors, outperforming by a wide margin. The group was up 24.4% year-to-date through February.
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund surged 25% in the first two months of the year, marking its strongest consecutive two-month performance since October–November 2022, when it rebounded sharply off the bear market lows.
Like its largest holding, Exxon Mobil, the bulls seem firmly in control of the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund. The monthly chart suggests that once the $50–$51 resistance zone was cleared, momentum accelerated decisively. A long-term objective in the low $90s appears achievable, measured by the magnitude of the 2014–2020 decline, the rebound to $50, and the early-2026 breakout to fresh highs.
Depending on how March plays out, XLE could be on track for its strongest quarterly gain ever.
The Bottom Line
Traders were fixated on futures screens at 6 p.m. ET Sunday, as Brent Crude surged 13% on the open and West Texas Intermediate briefly climbed toward $75. Early profit-taking tempered the initial spike, yet volatility across the energy complex remains elevated. While U.S. crude is running into near-term resistance, longer-term charts continue to show constructive strength in energy stocks.
Gold prices tumble toward $5,180 despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Tehran has stepped up military operations near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation against the United States, escalating regional tensions. At the same time, stronger-than-expected US factory inflation data has prompted traders to scale back expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.
During Tuesday’s European session, XAU/USD declined roughly 2.5% to trade near $5,180. The pullback follows four consecutive days of gains, including a sharp rally on Monday when investors sought safe-haven assets amid intensifying geopolitical risks.
Over the weekend, the United States and Israel carried out coordinated airstrikes on Iran, reportedly eliminating several senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In response, Tehran shut down the Strait of Hormuz and launched attacks on Israeli territory as well as multiple US military installations across the region. Earlier Tuesday, Iranian forces also targeted the US Embassy in Riyadh using drones.
Although gold typically benefits from heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the metal has come under pressure as expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve have moderated. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its June meeting has risen to 53.5%, up from 42.7% on Friday.
Traders reassessed their rate-cut expectations following Monday’s release of the US ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid index for February. The inflation gauge, which measures changes in input costs such as labor and raw materials, surged to 70.5—well above forecasts of 59.5 and the prior reading of 59.0—signaling stronger price pressures at the factory level.
Gold (XAU/USD) 4-Hour Chart Analysis
XAU/USD is trading below $5,200 at the time of writing. The short-term outlook has shifted to neutral with a bearish bias after the pair retreated from the upper boundary of its Rising Channel formation near $5,400 and moved back toward the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently positioned around $5,280.
Momentum indicators reinforce the weakening bullish tone. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen sharply from overbought territory above 80 to approximately 49, signaling a clear loss of upside momentum and diminishing buying pressure.
On the downside, immediate support is located near $5,065, aligning with the lower boundary of the Rising Channel. A decisive break beneath this level could expose the psychological $5,000 mark. Conversely, on the upside, the upper boundary of the Rising Channel remains the primary resistance zone, just above $5,400.
THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN 