Gold hovers near its daily low as a stronger U.S. dollar pressures prices, with traders closely watching upcoming U.S.–Iran peace negotiations.

• Gold comes under renewed selling pressure in the Asian session, though losses appear contained.
• Persistent inflation concerns keep U.S. bond yields elevated, supporting the dollar and pressuring the metal.
• However, growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts may limit further dollar strength and help support the non-yielding gold.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure and trades below the $4,800 level in the early European session on Tuesday, though it stays above the one-week low touched a day earlier. Market participants remain doubtful about a potential US–Iran deal as tensions persist around the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy’s seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, followed by Iran’s renewed closure of the key shipping route, has supported crude oil prices. This, in turn, has reignited inflation concerns, boosted the US dollar, and weighed on gold.

That said, stronger gains in the dollar appear limited as expectations for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve continue to fade. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in roughly a 45–50% chance of a rate cut by year-end, which could cap USD strength and provide underlying support for non-yielding gold. Meanwhile, traders are likely to remain cautious amid uncertainty over whether US–Iran peace talks will materialize, making it wise to wait for clear follow-through selling before expecting deeper losses in XAU/USD.

US President Donald Trump stated that American negotiators will travel to Pakistan for another round of discussions with Iran in an effort to extend a fragile ceasefire set to expire on Wednesday. However, Iranian officials remain reluctant to engage in talks under current conditions, citing the ongoing US blockade. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf emphasized that Iran will not negotiate under pressure, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pointed to continued US ceasefire violations as a key obstacle to diplomacy. Despite this, reports indicate that an Iranian delegation may still head to Islamabad for negotiations.

Going forward, markets will stay highly sensitive to developments in the US–Iran situation, which could drive volatility across asset classes. In addition, traders will look to testimony from Fed Chairman-designate Kevin Warsh for further direction. Given the mixed fundamental backdrop, caution remains warranted before taking strong directional positions in gold.

Gold (XAU/USD) – 4-hour timeframe chart

The bullish outlook for gold remains intact as long as price stays above the 200-period EMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement, a zone that now acts as a confluence support after previously serving as resistance.

The metal continues to show a constructive short-term tone, holding above the 200 EMA at $4,784.25. Just below, the 50% retracement of the March decline at $4,762.13 reinforces this support area, suggesting underlying buying interest. However, momentum indicators are relatively neutral rather than strongly trending—RSI is hovering around 51, while MACD remains slightly in negative territory—indicating that although bulls are still in control structurally, upside momentum is not particularly strong at the moment.

In terms of levels, immediate support lies at the 200 EMA ($4,784.25), followed by the 50% retracement at $4,762.13. A decisive break below this zone could open the door to deeper Fibonacci support levels at $4,607.05 and $4,415.17, with the broader downside target near $4,105.01. On the upside, resistance begins at the 61.8% retracement level at $4,917.21, with further barriers at $5,138.01 (78.6%) and the cycle high around $5,419.25, where rejection could potentially limit further gains in the current bullish phase.