The United States came close to becoming a net crude exporter last week for the first time since World War II, as exports surged to near-record levels to satisfy demand from Asia and Europe, where buyers were scrambling to replace Middle Eastern supplies disrupted by the Iran conflict. The war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran caused an unprecedented shock to global energy markets, with threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz halting roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows. As a result, refiners in affected regions turned to alternative sources, significantly increasing demand for U.S. crude, though analysts note exports are nearing capacity limits.
Net U.S. crude imports dropped to just 66,000 barrels per day last week—the lowest level since records began in 2001—while exports rose to 5.2 million bpd, a seven-month high. Historically, the U.S. was last a net crude exporter in 1943. Strong export growth reflects how buyers in Europe and Asia are reaching further afield for supply, with price differences offsetting shipping costs. Countries like Greece have recently begun importing U.S. crude for the first time, and major buyers include the Netherlands, Japan, France, Germany, and South Korea. Nearly half of U.S. exports went to Europe, while Asia’s share has grown significantly.
Meanwhile, U.S. imports fell sharply, partly because domestic refineries rely on heavier crude than what the U.S. typically produces. A widening price gap—driven by a surge in Brent crude relative to West Texas Intermediate—has made U.S. oil more attractive overseas while reducing domestic demand for imports. Spot prices for crude deliveries to Europe and Africa have also hit record highs.
Despite strong demand, U.S. export growth is approaching logistical limits. Exports may average around 5.2 million bpd in April, close to the estimated maximum capacity of about 6 million bpd, constrained by pipeline infrastructure and tanker availability. Although releasing medium sour crude from strategic reserves could free up more light crude for export, higher shipping costs and limited tanker supply could dampen further growth. About 80 empty supertankers were reportedly heading to the Gulf of Mexico, likely to load crude in the coming weeks.
Hedge funds are becoming more pessimistic about the dollar as expectations of US–Iran peace talks erode the currency’s recent gains driven by geopolitical tensions, according to Morgan Stanley data.
By April 10, investors had expanded their bearish positions on the dollar, reversing March’s trend when the Bloomberg Dollar Index climbed 2.4%—its strongest monthly performance since July—on safe-haven demand during the Middle East conflict.
In April, however, the index has dropped 1.8%, including a seven-day losing streak through Tuesday, as the US and Iran initiated talks to end the six-week standoff.
Analysts Molly Nickolin, David Adams, and Andrew Watrous noted that “the path to a weaker dollar is widening rather than narrowing.”
They added that while a ceasefire could boost risk-sensitive currencies in the short term, the dollar’s medium-term decline is likely to be more pronounced against major currencies like the euro, yen, and Swiss franc.
The U.S. dollar remained near a six-week low on Wednesday as growing optimism about a sustained ceasefire in the Iran conflict boosted investors’ appetite for risk.
In recent weeks, investors have increasingly shifted toward riskier assets like equities, putting pressure on the dollar, which had served as a preferred safe-haven during tensions in the Middle East.
As of 16:57 ET (20:57 GMT), the U.S. Dollar Index—measuring the greenback against a basket of six major currencies—edged down 0.1% to 98.06.
Trump signals possible end to war despite ongoing U.S. blockade
The U.S. dollar surged in March as investors sought safety during the Middle East crisis, supported by the view that the U.S.—as a net energy exporter—would be less affected by disruptions such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the currency has since slipped back toward pre-war levels, as expectations of a lasting ceasefire reduce its safe-haven appeal. Analysts at ING noted that markets are increasingly pricing in a positive outcome from upcoming U.S.-Iran talks, though they caution that risks for the dollar may still tilt upward.
President Donald Trump indicated the conflict with Iran could soon end, even as U.S. forces maintain a fully enforced naval blockade restricting Iranian shipping. He suggested a permanent ceasefire might be reached before King Charles’ upcoming visit and described the conflict as nearing its conclusion.
Reports also indicate that ceasefire negotiations may resume shortly after earlier talks failed to yield results. The White House said discussions remain active and constructive, expressing optimism about a potential agreement while denying any request to extend the current truce.
The U.S. and Iran are observing a fragile two-week ceasefire through April 21. Meanwhile, broader regional tensions persist, with Israel continuing strikes in Lebanon despite rare direct talks with Lebanese officials—raising concerns that the fragile de-escalation could unravel.
Inflation and central banks in a potential “peace trade”
Oil prices have been volatile but stayed below $100 per barrel, as traders closely monitor supply through the Strait of Hormuz—a key route for roughly a fifth of global oil shipments. Despite fluctuations, crude remains higher than pre-conflict levels, sustaining concerns about rising global inflation.
Recent U.S. data for March showed that higher oil prices significantly lifted headline inflation, while core inflation was less affected.
According to Thierry Wizman of Macquarie, a peace scenario would likely push oil and gas prices lower. This would trigger a “peace trade,” particularly impacting inflation expectations and central bank policy. Central banks that turned more hawkish due to rising energy costs could shift back to their pre-war outlooks if prices ease.
Wizman noted that the Bank of England—and possibly the European Central Bank—have the most room to soften their stance, as they had become notably more aggressive on rate hikes after the conflict began. A drop in energy prices could therefore lead to a less hawkish policy outlook.
He added that one of the most attractive trades in such a scenario would be positioning for lower interest rates over the next 9 to 12 months, particularly in instruments like GBP OIS or Libor, even as markets have yet to fully price out the possibility of rate hikes this year.
Euro and pound steady; yen weakens despite Katayama’s remarks.
The euro remained largely flat at $1.1799, while the British pound slipped 0.1% to $1.3560.
The Japanese yen also weakened slightly, with USD/JPY rising 0.1% to 158.96, despite comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama indicating that authorities stand ready to take “bold” measures if necessary.
After bilateral talks at the U.S. Treasury in Washington, Katayama noted that both sides had extensive discussions on currency matters and agreed to strengthen coordination going forward.
Over the past two months, as highlighted in our previous update, Ethereum’s Elliott Wave structure has progressed in line with our long-term outlook, indicating that the broader fourth wave likely concluded earlier this year and that the fifth wave has now begun. Refer to Figure 1 below.
In the near term, following the February low, the Elliott Wave structure points to the formation of a rare leading expanding diagonal as wave one—an uncommon yet bullish pattern that still needs a few more developments before it can be considered complete. Refer to Figure 2 below.
Furthermore, Ethereum has reclaimed its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), while also breaking above the long-standing downtrend line that had limited gains since last October (blue horizontal arrow). This breakout adds confirmation to a strengthening bullish trend and boosts confidence in continued upside momentum.
Key resistance now lies at the upper boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud around $2,395. A decisive move above this level could open the path toward the gray 200% extension at $2,626, as well as the 200-day SMA, currently near $2,910 and declining by roughly $10 per day. At this pace, the 200-day SMA could converge with $2,626 within a month.
On the downside, bulls will want to see price remain above the former downtrend line, as a drop below it would signal a failed breakout. A further decline beneath the critical support at the March 29 low of $1,938 (marked as the red “final warning” level) would invalidate the developing bullish outlook.
The payments industry is thriving—but not every company is reaping the rewards. Firms like Fiserv, Global Payments, and FIS take a cut whenever you tap your card, settle a bill, or transfer money digitally.
Still, their performance tells three very different stories. One appears to be a turnaround opportunity with deep value potential. Another has just completed a major acquisition that could either redefine its future or introduce new challenges. The third stands out as a consistent, dividend-paying performer.
For investors aiming to benefit from the growth of digital payments, any one of these—or a combination—could offer a way to gain exposure to the trend.
Fiserv: A Contrarian Bet on a Beaten-Down Stock
Fiserv has been through a difficult stretch. Its stock is now trading around levels not seen in nearly eight years, despite the company continuing to generate billions in free cash flow and holding strong positions with banks and merchants nationwide.
In 2025, Fiserv posted $21.2 billion in revenue and $5.8 billion in operating income, supported largely by its recurring payments processing business. The fourth quarter showed some signs of stability—while revenue growth remained muted, both revenue and earnings still exceeded analyst expectations. Revenue rose less than 1% year-over-year to $4.9 billion, while earnings per share came in at $1.99—down 21% from the prior year but still 9 cents above forecasts.
The biggest blow to the stock, however, came earlier. After reaching a 52-week high of $221.50, shares dropped sharply in late 2025 following disappointing third-quarter results. This triggered leadership changes, including the appointment of two co-presidents and a new chief financial officer.
More recently, another sell-off followed the company’s year-end report and cautious outlook. Management’s 2026 guidance—projecting earnings per share between $8 and $8.30 and organic revenue growth of just 1%–3%—fell short of prior growth rates, raising concerns that its turnaround strategy may take longer than expected.
Analyst sentiment remains neutral overall. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, most recommend holding, with a smaller number leaning bullish and only a few bearish. The average 12-month price target sits in the low-to-mid $70 range.
For contrarian investors, Fiserv may present an intriguing setup: a fundamentally solid business facing short-term headwinds, where patience could potentially be rewarded—though not without risk.
Global Payments: Big Acquisition, Bigger Question Marks
Global Payments (GPN) presents the most complex narrative among the three. In 2025, the company reported adjusted net revenue of $9.3 billion, up 2% year-over-year—or 6% on a constant-currency basis excluding divestitures. Adjusted earnings per share rose a solid 11% to $12.22.
However, under GAAP metrics, the picture was less encouraging, with both revenue and net income declining—highlighting the gap between adjusted performance and reported results.
At the same time, GPN is returning capital to shareholders. It announced a $2.5 billion share buyback as part of a broader $7.5 billion capital return plan through 2027. The company also pays a modest quarterly dividend of $0.25, offering a yield of around 1.5%.
What truly defines GPN right now is its strategic transformation. A key milestone is the acquisition of Worldpay, completed in January 2026. The deal—valued at over $24 billion and structured through a mix of cash, stock, and debt—gives GPN full ownership of Worldpay. At the same time, it sold its Issuer Solutions unit back to FIS.
This reshapes GPN into a more focused commerce solutions provider, with ambitions to scale its merchant platform, expand cross-border capabilities, and leverage richer transaction data. But deals of this magnitude rarely come without risk—especially when integration complexity is high and financial benefits may take time to materialize.
Management remains optimistic, forecasting 2026 net revenue growth of about 5% and adjusted EPS growth of 13%, reaching $13.80–$14 per share.
For now, though, Wall Street remains cautious. Analyst sentiment leans neutral, with a consensus “Hold” rating and an average price target in the upper $80s—suggesting some upside from current levels but far from a strong vote of confidence. Several analysts have recently downgraded expectations as the stock touched a 52-week low, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around execution.
Fidelity National Information Services (FIS): A Stronger Fit for Income Investors
FIS stands out with a distinct profile built on steady growth, expanding free cash flow, and a steadily improving dividend.
After divesting its Worldpay merchant stake to Global Payments, the company posted solid 2025 results, with revenue rising 5% to $10.7 billion and adjusted earnings per share increasing 10% to $5.75. Cash flow from continuing operations surged 19%, allowing the company to boost its dividend by 10% to $0.44 per share. Altogether, FIS returned $2.1 billion to shareholders during the year, including $1.3 billion through share repurchases.
The company’s outlook for 2026 remains upbeat. Management expects adjusted revenue to grow by around 30%, with EPS projected to increase between 8% and 10%.
Analysts remain broadly positive, assigning a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating. With an average price target of $69.67, the stock suggests close to 50% upside from current levels. Meanwhile, a dividend yield approaching 4% enhances its appeal for income-oriented investors.
That said, some risks persist. A slowdown in the financial sector or reduced spending from major clients could weigh on performance, while pricing pressure may affect margins. Even so, for those seeking consistent returns within financial infrastructure, FIS appears to be the most balanced of the three companies.
Different Ways to Invest in Payments
These three companies each come with their own set of trade-offs. While all provide exposure to the growth of digital payments, they play very different roles within the sector. Investors could consider holding all three—Fiserv, Global Payments, and Fidelity National Information Services—to diversify risk while benefiting from the broader industry tailwind.
A more conservative strategy might lean toward FIS for its income potential. Meanwhile, Global Payments offers a clearer growth story, albeit with execution risks tied to its recent transformation. Fiserv, on the other hand, represents a contrarian play, dependent on a successful turnaround.
Although they operate within the same segment of financial services, their differences in strategy, risk, and return profiles make each a distinct way to approach the payments space.
Bitcoin pulled back slightly on Tuesday, falling below $75,000 after briefly reaching a one-month high, but remained broadly higher as optimism over potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks lifted risk sentiment. A better-than-expected U.S. producer inflation report also supported the positive mood.
As of 17:35 ET (21:35 GMT), the leading cryptocurrency was up 1.2% at $74,127.8, after earlier climbing to $76,043.7 during the session.
Bitcoin climbs as a broader risk-on sentiment lifts markets.
Bitcoin climbed alongside a broader risk-on trend, mirroring a rebound in global markets as equities posted solid gains. S&P 500 rose over 1%, while Nasdaq Composite advanced as investors continued to favor technology stocks amid optimism around artificial intelligence.
Crypto sentiment was further supported by falling oil prices, which dropped below $100 per barrel after recent spikes, encouraging demand for riskier assets.
Markets were also reassured by ongoing diplomatic signals between the United States and Iran, despite a lack of progress in recent talks. Reports suggested both sides are considering another round of direct negotiations to extend a fragile ceasefire. Donald Trump noted that further discussions could take place within days in Pakistan.
Meanwhile, the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz entered its second day, with United States Central Command reporting that no vessels had passed through in the first 24 hours, as restrictions targeted ships linked to Iranian ports.
U.S. producer prices increased in March, but by less than expected.
U.S. producer prices increased in March, but not as much as expected. Alongside ongoing Middle East tensions, the inflation data gave investors some reassurance after a volatile period.
The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.5% compared to the previous month and 4.0% year-on-year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics—both below forecasts of 1.1% and 4.6%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, edged up 0.1% month-on-month and 3.8% annually.
The annual headline increase was the highest since February 2023, largely driven by a sharp 8.5% jump in energy prices during the month. This trend mirrored the consumer price index data released earlier, where rising oil prices linked to the Iran conflict lifted overall inflation, while core inflation remained relatively stable.
Deutsche Börse acquires a $200 million stake in the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken.
Deutsche Boerse has invested $200 million in Payward, the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, by purchasing existing shares. This gives the German exchange operator a 1.5% fully diluted stake in the firm.
The move strengthens a strategic partnership between the two companies first announced in December 2025, which focuses on connecting traditional financial markets with the digital asset space.
According to Deutsche Boerse, the collaboration will cover areas such as trading, custody, settlement, collateral management, and tokenized assets—aiming to provide institutional clients with smoother, more integrated access to both traditional and crypto markets.
Strategy Inc purchases 13,927 BTC using proceeds from preferred stock sales.
Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR) announced Monday that it purchased 13,927 bitcoins last week for roughly $1 billion, partly financed through the sale of preferred shares, according to a U.S. SEC filing. The company issued about 10.03 million shares of its variable-rate Series A perpetual preferred stock, generating approximately $1 billion in net proceeds. These funds were used to acquire Bitcoin at an average price of around $71,902 per coin. With this latest purchase, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings increased to 780,897 BTC, acquired at a combined cost of $59.02 billion.
Crypto prices today: altcoins rally, with Ethereum surging 7%.
Most altcoins trimmed earlier gains on Tuesday.
The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, rose 2.6% to $2,319.42, while third-ranked XRP gained 0.7% to $1.3604.
Solana turned lower, slipping 0.3%, whereas Cardano edged up 0.4%.
Among meme coins, Dogecoin posted a modest 0.5% increase.
Oil prices declined for a second consecutive day on Wednesday as expectations grew that peace talks between the U.S. and Iran could resume, potentially restoring supply from the Middle East that has been disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude slipped 0.55% to $94.27 per barrel after a sharp 4.6% drop in the previous session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.1% to $90.24 following an even steeper 7.9% decline earlier.
Investor sentiment improved after President Donald Trump suggested that negotiations to end the conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran could restart in Pakistan within days. The earlier breakdown in talks had led Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports, but renewed diplomatic hopes are raising expectations that oil and fuel flows could eventually resume.
The conflict has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for transporting crude and refined products from the Gulf to global markets, particularly in Asia and Europe. Although a ceasefire has been in place for two weeks, shipping activity remains severely limited, with vessel traffic far below pre-war levels.
On Tuesday, a U.S. warship reportedly prevented two oil tankers from departing Iran, underscoring ongoing disruptions. Analysts at the Schork Group noted that while diplomatic developments hint at easing restrictions, actual conditions on the ground remain unstable, leaving markets focused on the risk of supply disruptions rather than a full recovery.
Further tightening supply concerns, U.S. officials indicated that sanctions waivers on Iranian oil shipments will not be renewed, and a similar waiver for Russian oil has already expired.
Later in the day, attention will turn to U.S. inventory data from the Energy Information Administration. Expectations are for a modest increase in crude stockpiles, alongside declines in gasoline and distillate inventories. Meanwhile, preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute suggested that crude inventories rose for a third straight week.
The U.S. dollar declined on Tuesday as investors moved away from the safe-haven currency and shifted toward riskier equities, supported by optimism over potential ceasefire progress between the U.S. and Iran, despite the ongoing naval blockade in the Persian Gulf.
Risk sentiment was further strengthened by a much weaker-than-expected U.S. producer inflation report, easing concerns that the Iran-related energy shock could fuel inflation—especially after a recent surge in consumer prices.
By 17:20 ET (21:20 GMT), the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, had dropped 0.3% to 98.12.
The Hormuz blockade continued into its second day, even as Donald Trump signaled that potential negotiations could be on the horizon.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz entered its second day even as President Donald Trump highlighted the possibility of renewed negotiations.
The U.S. dollar, which had initially strengthened as a safe-haven asset following the outbreak of the Iran conflict in late February, has recently weakened amid growing optimism that tensions could ease.
This optimism increased on Tuesday after Trump told the New York Post that additional talks “could take place within the next two days” in Pakistan. According to earlier reports, the U.S. and Iran have remained in contact and made some progress toward a lasting ceasefire agreement.
Trump also stated that Iranian officials had reached out to the White House expressing interest in striking a deal, while reiterating that Iran would not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. is reportedly insisting that Iran halt uranium enrichment for 20 years, a key step in nuclear weapons development.
At the same time, the U.S. naval blockade of vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports continued into its second day. The U.S. Central Command said the operation involves over 10,000 personnel, more than a dozen warships, and dozens of aircraft to enforce the restrictions.
CENTCOM reported that within the first 24 hours, no ships managed to pass through the blockade, and six commercial vessels complied with U.S. directives to turn back toward ports in the Gulf of Oman.
British maritime authorities also confirmed that access has been limited for ships attempting to enter or exit Iranian ports, as well as in nearby waters including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and parts of the Arabian Sea.
Trump noted that the blockade began on Monday after weekend ceasefire negotiations failed to produce immediate results. The move risks further disrupting already reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
U.S. producer inflation came in weaker than expected.
U.S. producer inflation came in less severe than expected, drawing significant market attention on Tuesday. The March producer price index (PPI) rose 0.5% month-on-month and 4.0% year-on-year, falling short of forecasts of 1.1% and 4.6%. Meanwhile, core PPI increased by 0.1% over the month and 3.8% compared to a year earlier.
Despite the softer-than-expected overall figures, the annual rise in headline PPI marked the largest increase since February 2023, largely driven by a sharp 8.5% monthly surge in energy prices for final demand.
Even so, the weaker headline data helped ease investor concerns.
Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney, noted on X that expectations had been elevated due to fears of rising energy input costs, which were not fully reflected in the data.
He added that although gas prices are clearly higher, these cost increases may take several months to filter through the economy rather than appearing all at once. This gradual pass-through could complicate monetary policy, as it may delay the Federal Reserve’s confidence that inflation pressures are not spreading beyond the energy sector.
The euro and British pound strengthened, while the yen also gained despite weak economic data.
Among major currencies, both the euro (EUR/USD) and the British pound (GBP/USD) moved higher, supported by the softer U.S. dollar. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1795, while the pound gained 0.4% to $1.3567.
The Japanese yen also strengthened, with USD/JPY slipping 0.3% to 158.80, despite data showing Japan’s industrial production fell 2% month-on-month in February after a 4.3% increase in January.
In other markets, the Australian dollar (AUD/USD) increased 0.3% to $0.7122, even though economic indicators were weak. According to National Australia Bank, business confidence dropped sharply in March following the Iran conflict, while the Westpac–Melbourne Institute survey showed a steep decline in consumer sentiment in April.
Oil prices slipped in early Asian trading on Tuesday as renewed hopes for U.S.–Iran negotiations eased worries about supply disruptions linked to the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude dropped $1.86 (1.87%) to $97.50, while WTI fell $2.25 (2.27%) to $96.83. This pullback followed strong gains in the previous session, when prices surged after the U.S. launched a blockade of Iran’s ports.
The U.S. military expanded the blockade beyond the strait into the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, with early signs of disruption already visible as ships began turning back. In response, Iran warned it could target ports in neighboring Gulf countries after weekend talks in Islamabad failed to produce a resolution.
Despite the breakdown, optimism lingered as both sides signaled a willingness to keep negotiations alive. Analysts noted that even the hint of a potential deal helped cool the rally in oil prices.
Market estimates suggest roughly 10 million barrels per day of supply have already been affected, with the risk of further losses if the blockade continues. Still, analysts argue that tight supply conditions alone may be enough to keep prices elevated.
Meanwhile, NATO allies such as Britain and France declined to support the blockade, instead pushing for the reopening of the key shipping route. U.S. officials indicated prices could peak in the coming weeks if flows resume.
Global institutions, including the IMF, World Bank, and IEA, urged countries to avoid hoarding or restricting exports, warning of a major shock to the energy market. OPEC also trimmed its global demand forecast for the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day.
Bitcoin continued its upward momentum on Monday, supported by stronger risk sentiment driven by lingering optimism around potential U.S.–Iran negotiations, even after weekend talks failed and a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz was initiated.
The leading cryptocurrency climbed 2.6% to $73,196.1 by late U.S. trading hours.
Despite 21 hours of negotiations, U.S. and Iranian officials were unable to secure a deal to reinforce a temporary ceasefire. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump confirmed that a U.S. naval blockade in the key oil transit route would take effect, signaling a possible escalation in Middle East tensions and raising concerns over global shipping and energy supply disruptions.
Although such disruptions have limited direct impact on cryptocurrencies, they could weigh on global economic growth and dampen investor appetite for riskier assets. Sentiment had already been pressured by a sharp rise in U.S. inflation in March, largely fueled by higher energy costs linked to the conflict.
Separately, Bhutan has reportedly reduced its Bitcoin holdings by around 70% since October 2024, now holding roughly 3,954 BTC valued at $280.6 million, down significantly from its previous peak. The reasons for the sell-off remain unclear.
At the same time, MicroStrategy continued to expand its crypto exposure, purchasing nearly 14,000 BTC last week for about $1 billion. This brings its total holdings to 780,897 BTC, acquired at an average price of $75,577 per coin.
Across the broader crypto market, altcoins posted modest gains. Ether rose 1.8% to $2,253.38, XRP added 0.8%, while Cardano, Solana, and BNB recorded smaller increases.
Asian currencies posted modest gains on Tuesday, while the U.S. dollar weakened as Washington initiated a blockade on Iranian ships in an effort to push Tehran toward a more durable ceasefire agreement.
Investors also turned their attention to upcoming U.S. producer price index (PPI) data for further signals on the interest rate outlook in the world’s largest economy.
The Chinese yuan strengthened despite disappointing March trade data, which showed exports and the overall trade balance falling short of expectations, even as imports surged well beyond forecasts. Meanwhile, the Singapore dollar remained largely unchanged after first-quarter GDP growth came in below estimates, although the country’s central bank slightly tightened its monetary policy.
Market sentiment was somewhat supported by reports that several Asian and Middle Eastern nations were working to facilitate renewed ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
The dollar index and its futures slipped around 0.1% during Asian trading hours, putting the greenback on track for losses in seven of the past eight sessions. Although the dollar had previously gained on safe-haven demand during the escalation of the Iran conflict, it has since pulled back as investors anticipate possible de-escalation.
The U.S. officially began blockading Iranian ports and vessels on Monday. However, President Donald Trump indicated that Tehran had reached out to Washington expressing interest in a ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance also noted signs of progress, despite limited outcomes from recent peace talks held in Pakistan.
Inflation remains a key concern tied to the conflict, particularly after last week’s data showed a sharp rise in U.S. consumer prices for March. Markets are now awaiting the latest PPI figures for further direction.
In China, the yuan gained as data revealed a sharper-than-expected drop in the trade surplus. Export growth slowed, partly due to disruptions caused by the Iran conflict and rising global shipping costs, while imports surged on stronger domestic demand, particularly for semiconductors and server-related equipment from South Korea.
Overall, the data suggested underlying resilience in China’s domestic economy, raising expectations that stronger import activity and price pressures could help boost inflation.
Elsewhere in Asia, currencies generally strengthened. The Singapore dollar held steady after weaker-than-expected economic growth, even as the Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy by adjusting the upper range of its exchange rate band.
The Japanese yen also appreciated, with USD/JPY falling 0.3%, after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama urged caution in commenting on the Bank of Japan’s policies. Meanwhile, the South Korean won edged up 0.1%, and the Australian dollar gained 0.2%.
WTI surges about 8% toward $100 after the U.S. blocks the Strait of Hormuz Strait of Hormuz.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the US crude benchmark – started the week with a bullish gap, rising around 8% as it moves back toward the $100 level.
The rally follows renewed escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran after weekend peace talks lasting 21 hours collapsed.
US President Donald Trump responded by pledging a blockade of Iranian ports and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) also stated that forces will begin restricting all vessel movement in and out of Iranian ports from Monday at 10:00 AM ET (14:00 GMT).
According to a Wall Street Journal report, Trump and his advisers are also considering limited military strikes on Iran alongside the blockade to increase pressure in stalled negotiations.
Market attention now shifts to further details on the blockade and its potential impact on the already fragile US–Iran ceasefire.
EUR/USD extends its gains as bullish momentum builds, with traders targeting further upside.
EUR/USD has extended its upside momentum, breaking higher after a decisive technical breakout.
The pair began a fresh rally above 1.1650 and moved beyond a key contracting triangle resistance at 1.1610 on the 4-hour chart.
Price action is now trading above 1.1665 as well as both the 100-period (red) and 200-period (green) simple moving averages, confirming a stronger bullish structure. The breakout has already driven the pair toward the 1.1740 area.
If buyers maintain control, the next upside targets are seen at 1.1780, with initial major resistance at 1.1800. A sustained break above this level could open the path toward 1.1840, and a further close above it would expose potential gains toward 1.1920 and even the 1.2000 psychological level.
On the downside, immediate support lies near 1.1685, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent move from 1.1505 to 1.1739. Key support follows at 1.1620 and the 1.1600 region, which also aligns with the 200-SMA. A breakdown below 1.1600 could shift momentum lower toward the 100-SMA, with deeper losses potentially reopening the 1.1500 area.
Iran-related geopolitical tensions, upcoming PPI inflation data, and the kickoff of the first-quarter earnings season will dominate market attention in the coming week.
Netflix appears poised for a possible breakout as it approaches its Q1 earnings release.
Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson is expected to face pressure, with forecasts pointing to a decline in earnings.
U.S. stocks mostly ended lower on Friday, though the S&P 500 still posted its strongest weekly performance since November, as investors monitored the fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
For the week, the benchmark S&P 500 surged 3.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 3%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 4.7%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 added 4%.
Looking ahead, market focus will again center on Middle East developments and oil prices after weekend peace talks between the U.S. and Iran ended without an agreement. In response, President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. Navy will start blockading ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz.
Beyond geopolitical tensions, the upcoming week features a relatively light U.S. economic calendar, with key reports including producer price inflation, existing home sales, and initial jobless claims.
At the same time, the first-quarter earnings season gets underway, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley set to report. Beyond the banking sector, companies including Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, PepsiCo, Taiwan Semiconductor, and ASML are also scheduled to release their results next week.
No matter which way the market moves, below I outline one stock that could attract strong buying interest and another that may face additional downside pressure. Keep in mind, this outlook only covers the upcoming week, from Monday, April 13 through Friday, April 17.
Stock to Buy: Netflix
Netflix looks like a strong candidate for upside this week. The streaming leader is set to release its first-quarter earnings after Thursday’s market close, followed by a live management interview. According to the options market, investors are expecting a notable move in NFLX shares after the announcement, with an implied swing of about ±6.9% in either direction.
Netflix is expected to post earnings of $0.79 per share, marking a 19.7% year-over-year increase. Revenue is projected to rise 15.5% to $12.18 billion, driven by solid streaming growth, strategic price hikes, and the rapid scaling of its ad-supported tier.
Investor sentiment has improved after Netflix walked away from acquiring the streaming and studio assets of Warner Bros. Discovery, sidestepping a large, debt-intensive deal. This decision helped maintain balance sheet flexibility and allowed the company to redirect capital toward content creation, share buybacks, and expanding its advertising business.
Looking forward, developments such as Netflix’s push into sports and gaming point to emerging growth opportunities.
After a sharp decline earlier this year—largely triggered by its scrapped attempt to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming and studio assets—Netflix stock has staged a recovery as investors shifted their attention back to the company’s fundamental strengths.
The stock is now exhibiting strong upward momentum, having broken out of a double-bottom pattern at $75.21 and climbing to $103.01. It continues to gain traction ahead of Q1 earnings. The MACD remains in bullish territory, while the price is holding comfortably above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a solid uptrend.
In contrast, Johnson & Johnson appears to be heading into a more difficult earnings period, making it a stock to consider avoiding or selling this week. The company is scheduled to report its Q1 results before the market opens on Tuesday at 6:20 AM ET.
Analyst sentiment has turned more cautious ahead of the release, with roughly half of the recent estimate revisions trending downward. Meanwhile, the options market is anticipating a potential post-earnings move of about ±3.8% in JNJ shares.
Analysts expect a slight decline in Q1 earnings per share, with consensus estimates around $2.68—pointing to a low single-digit drop compared to the same period last year. Revenue, however, is projected to remain relatively stable, coming in between $23.4 billion and $23.6 billion, supported by continued strength in the Innovative Medicine and MedTech divisions.
Although the company benefits from a well-diversified portfolio and a solid pipeline—including key treatments like Darzalex—its near-term outlook lacks strong catalysts that could drive a meaningful upside surprise.
Management guidance and commentary are also unlikely to significantly shift the short-term narrative, given ongoing challenges such as the loss of exclusivity for major products like Stelara, along with persistent legal uncertainties.
Johnson & Johnson’s technical outlook has weakened. After reaching a record high of $251.71 in early March, the stock has lost momentum, slipping below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while the SuperTrend indicator has turned bearish.
With a rounding top pattern taking shape, the stock may need to find solid support again before bullish sentiment can return.
Bitcoin (BitfinexUSD) is under pressure this Sunday, falling 1.80% to $71,603.9 at 05:19 EST (10:00 GMT) after high-level U.S.–Iran peace talks in Islamabad ended without a breakthrough, adding fresh geopolitical uncertainty to global markets.
The collapse of the 21-hour negotiations has pushed traditional energy prices higher, while Bitcoin remains relatively resilient, staying above key technical support levels as investors reassess its role as a potential “digital hedge” amid risks of renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf.
Geopolitical stalemate vs. digital scarcity
The departure of Vice President JD Vance from Pakistan without securing a nuclear commitment from Tehran has effectively dashed hopes for an immediate “safe passage” deal for global energy flows.
Historically, spikes in geopolitical tension have often supported Bitcoin, as it operates beyond the reach of maritime chokepoints or sovereign sanctions. Analysts suggest that with the April 8 ceasefire still fragile, the so-called “war premium” is increasingly shifting toward decentralized assets.
“Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me,” President Trump said after the talks, signaling a potential pivot toward rearming regional allies.
Despite the diplomatic breakdown, market data indicates that BTC has avoided a panic sell-off, implying that much of the regional risk had already been priced in following the initial strikes in March.
ETF inflows and the “institutional floor”
While macro headlines continue to dominate, Bitcoin’s internal market structure is being reinforced by a strong վերադարձ of institutional demand. Recent exchange data highlights a notable surge in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
This trend suggests that large investors are taking advantage of geopolitical uncertainty to build positions. The presence of an “institutional floor” has helped stabilize prices, even as traditional risk assets come under pressure from rising long-term Treasury yields.
At the same time, the crypto market is benefiting from increasing regulatory clarity across Asia. Newly introduced licensing frameworks for digital asset service providers in key financial hubs are enabling fresh capital inflows, helping to offset more cautious sentiment in Western markets.
With diplomatic efforts in Islamabad now stalled, attention for the rest of the quarter is shifting toward how sustained institutional inflows will interact with declining liquid supply on exchanges—potentially setting up a supply squeeze if Middle East tensions continue.
Crypto prices today: altcoins mostly decline
The broader crypto market showed mixed performance, with most altcoins moving lower even as Bitcoin held relatively steady.
The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, slipped 1.27% to $2,215.02, while XRP edged down 1.28% to $1.3306.
Among other major tokens, Solana dropped 2.70%, Cardano fell 3.95%, and BNB declined 2.06% to $594.30.
In the memecoin segment, Dogecoin lost 1.84%, while $TRUMP recorded a smaller dip of 0.69%.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Sunday evening that he was unconcerned about whether Iran would return to negotiations after ceasefire talks over the weekend failed to produce an agreement.
He also confirmed that the United States intends to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning, accusing Iran of failing to honor its commitment to reopen the vital shipping route. Speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews, Trump stated that the U.S. would be fine even if Iran chose not to resume talks.
His remarks followed a report indicating that several countries are attempting to restart diplomatic efforts after lengthy discussions in Islamabad ended without a deal. Despite the breakdown, sources suggested that further negotiations could take place within days, while regional governments are working with Washington to extend a fragile two-week ceasefire.
The Islamabad meeting represented the highest-level direct engagement between U.S. and Iranian officials since 1979, with 21 hours of talks concluding without progress. Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. had clearly outlined its conditions, but Iran declined to accept them.
U.S. demands reportedly included ending uranium enrichment entirely, dismantling key nuclear facilities, surrendering enriched materials, reopening the Strait of Hormuz without fees, promoting broader regional stability, and ceasing support for groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. Iran, however, proposed limited enrichment or reducing its stockpile, but the two sides failed to reach a compromise.
In response to Trump’s blockade announcement, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf warned that Iran would not back down under pressure, stating that any confrontation would be met with force.
The U.S. plans to enforce the blockade on all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports from 10 a.m. ET on April 13, covering areas along the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. It remains unclear whether U.S. allies will participate. Trump also criticized NATO for its lack of involvement and said Washington is reassessing its relationship with the alliance.
One of the most compelling charts this week is Bitcoin. Despite widespread hesitation and global risk aversion, it has remained relatively resilient instead of breaking down. In addition, Wall Street–based ETFs tied to Bitcoin continue to attract inflows, even as overall market sentiment stays cautious.
That said, this suggests a level of resilience in the Bitcoin market that shouldn’t be overlooked. At some point, the market will need to make a longer-term move, and based on current signals, it appears to be leaning toward a bullish outcome.
This outlook is somewhat logical, considering Bitcoin has already dropped around 50% from its highs. For long-term holders, that kind of correction often signals a potential buying opportunity. While I’m not strongly bullish on Bitcoin overall, the technical picture indicates that a move above $76,000 could quickly become significant.
NASDAQ 100
The Nasdaq 100 moved higher over the week, largely driven by the ceasefire announcement, which boosted overall risk appetite. By the end of the week, the index was hovering around the 25,000 level. However, with key talks taking place in Pakistan over the weekend, market sentiment could shift quickly as early as Monday. For this reason, I remain optimistic about equities—but only with a strong sense of caution.
USD/MXN
The US dollar declined sharply against the Mexican peso over the week as risk appetite returned. It’s also important to note the significant interest rate gap between the two economies, which encourages traders to short this pair, as holding Mexican pesos allows them to earn daily carry.
It now appears that the pair is on the verge of breaking down toward the 17 peso level. However, that level may not matter much at this stage due to the upcoming meeting in Pakistan over the weekend. If the outcome is negative, the US dollar is likely to strengthen; if not, the current downward trend should continue.
DAX
Germany’s DAX ended the week in positive territory, although it closed on a weak note on Friday. This likely reflects caution ahead of the weekend meeting, as Germany remains highly sensitive to energy supply risks—particularly LNG from Qatar and crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption there could create significant challenges for its industrial sector. As a result, many traders appear to be locking in profits and reducing exposure ahead of potentially impactful developments from the talks in Pakistan.
USD/CAD
The US dollar has declined against the Canadian dollar and is now hovering around both the 50-week EMA and the 200-day EMA, making a pause at this level quite reasonable. As with other markets, Monday’s open will likely be influenced by developments in Islamabad. Overall, this appears to be a market attempting to establish support before potentially moving higher. The 1.3750 level stands out as a key area to watch for a possible bounce if the pair continues to pull back, while the 1.40 level remains a significant resistance to the upside.
EUR/USD
The euro posted a solid rally over the week, largely supported by improving risk appetite. It has now climbed above the 1.17 level for the first time in about five weeks. If this momentum holds, the next target to watch would be the 1.18 level.
The 1.18 level represents a major resistance zone. However, if the talks between Iran and the United States produce positive outcomes, it could trigger a broad relief rally—potentially pushing this market higher along with others.
Silver
Silver has been volatile but clearly positive over the week as it continues to search for a bottom. The market is likely to remain choppy, and while a larger move will eventually take shape, it may not be the ideal time to take on significant positions.
Interest rates will remain a key driver here, so it’s important to watch the US 10-year yield closely. Generally, a move above 4.30% tends to be negative for this market—though it’s not a definitive rule, just one of several influencing factors. Additionally, developments coming out of Islamabad and the ongoing talks are likely to have a significant impact on interest rate expectations, which will in turn affect price action here.
Gold
The gold market has also moved higher, but this seems to have caught many traders off guard, as the main driver has been interest rates rather than geopolitical fear. Many people are puzzled by gold’s weakness during times of conflict, but the explanation lies in the bond market—yields are now significantly higher than before, prompting portfolio managers to shift allocations toward interest-bearing assets instead of gold.
I remain bullish on gold over the longer term, but I also recognize that a renewed spike in yields—possibly triggered by disappointing outcomes from the talks in Islamabad—could push the market down toward the $4,600 level. On the upside, the $5,000 mark stands out as the first major resistance zone.
GBP/USD slipped slightly after four consecutive sessions of gains, remaining under pressure below the 1.3450 level during Friday’s European trading hours. The pair weakened as the US Dollar held steady amid cautious market sentiment, driven by concerns ahead of the US-Iran peace negotiations. Investors are now focused on the US Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release later in the North American session.
Technical Outlook for GBP/USD
The short-term outlook for GBP/USD has shifted slightly bullish, with the pair maintaining its position just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January–March decline. Price action is currently challenging the downward-sloping 200-day Simple Moving Average around 1.3415 from below, indicating early signs of buying interest near this key long-term level. Momentum indicators are also improving, as the MACD line has crossed above its signal line and is moving back toward the zero line, while the RSI at 55 reflects moderate bullish momentum without overbought pressure.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 50% retracement level of 1.3505. A daily close above this level would reinforce the bullish bias and pave the way toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3588. On the downside, initial support lies at the 38.2% retracement near 1.3422, closely aligned with the 200-day SMA at 1.3415; a break below this zone would expose the next support at the 23.6% retracement around 1.3319. Overall, as long as GBP/USD remains above the 1.3415–1.3422 support area, the near-term bias continues to favor further recovery toward the mid-1.3500 region.
Fundamental Analysis Summary
Market sentiment remains fragile and risk-averse as geopolitical tensions persist. Israel continues military operations against Hezbollah, although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that direct negotiations with Lebanon are expected to begin soon. At the same time, US President Donald Trump stated that American forces will remain stationed near Iran until full compliance with the agreement is achieved.
On the diplomatic front, US Vice President JD Vance, along with senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is scheduled to hold talks in Pakistan this weekend regarding a potential long-term arrangement with Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that any negotiations to end the conflict depend on US adherence to its ceasefire obligations. He further argued that these commitments include a ceasefire in Lebanon, a condition the US and Israel dispute.
Separately, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the Iran conflict could trigger risks reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, pointing to potential contagion from stress in the largely opaque $3 trillion private credit market. He cautioned that such vulnerabilities could spill over into already fragile global markets strained by energy shocks and rising debt pressures, according to The Telegraph.
EUR/USD climbed to 1.1667 on Thursday, while the US dollar recovered part of its previous losses as market sentiment stayed cautious amid a fragile US–Iran truce.
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated, with Iranian media reporting continued restrictions on tanker passage following renewed strikes in the region. Iranian officials have also accused the opposing side of breaching several ceasefire terms.
The dollar had fallen sharply in the prior session after news of a two-week truce, which triggered a decline in oil prices and briefly eased inflation concerns.
Additional pressure came from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes. Some policymakers signaled openness to rate hikes to curb inflation, although most still expect policy easing to follow later.
Looking ahead, investors are focusing on key US macroeconomic data, including consumer spending figures, the PCE price index, and the upcoming CPI report, all of which are likely to shape expectations for the Fed’s next policy moves and near-term market direction.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the H4 timeframe of EUR/USD, price action is consolidating around the 1.1683 level. A corrective downside move is anticipated, with 1.1606 seen as the initial target, followed by a potential rebound back toward 1.1683. From a technical perspective, this outlook is supported by the MACD, where the signal line remains above the zero line but is trending decisively downward, indicating sustained bearish momentum and the likelihood that the downward pressure may continue in the near term.
On the H1 timeframe, EUR/USD is developing the structure for a potential next downside move toward the 1.1616 area. Once this level is reached, a rebound toward 1.1666 is anticipated, followed by a subsequent decline toward 1.1494. From a technical standpoint, this outlook is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, as its signal line remains below the 50 level and continues to slope downward toward 20, indicating sustained bearish pressure.
Summary
EUR/USD remains supported, although the US dollar has recovered some losses as tensions in the US-Iran truce begin to resurface. Ongoing reports of restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and claims of ceasefire violations have brought renewed caution to the markets. The latest Fed minutes showed a split committee, with some policymakers considering rate hikes while others favor future easing, further adding to policy uncertainty. Ahead of upcoming US inflation and consumer data releases, the pair’s short-term outlook remains unclear. From a technical perspective, a near-term decline looks more likely, while the broader trend will largely depend on whether the fragile truce holds or geopolitical risks escalate again.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to increase by 3.3% year-on-year in March, driven sharply higher by rising energy prices. Core CPI inflation is also expected to tick up slightly to 2.7% annually. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD technical outlook remains mildly bullish in the near term.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday.
The report is widely expected to show an uptick in inflation, largely driven by the surge in crude oil prices following increased tensions after a joint U.S.–Israel strike on Iran.
The monthly CPI is projected to increase by 0.9%, up from a 0.3% rise in March, while the annual rate is expected to climb to 3.3%—its highest level since May 2024—from 2.4% in February. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.3% on the month and 2.7% year-on-year.
Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East on February 28, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has surged roughly 40%, even after easing following a recent two-week ceasefire announcement between the U.S. and Iran. In March alone, WTI jumped nearly 50%, rising from around $67 per barrel to close near $100.
According to TD Securities analysts, the spike in crude prices is expected to be the main driver behind the sharp 0.9% monthly CPI increase, pushing the annual reading up by nearly one percentage point to 3.3%, marking a two-year high. They also noted that core inflation is likely to remain relatively contained at 0.27% month-on-month, though goods prices may continue to rise due to tariff pass-through, with “supercore” inflation staying firm around 0.3%.
CPI data
The next CPI report is expected to be heavily influenced by recent volatility in oil prices, meaning the March inflation print will likely show a noticeable jump in headline CPI—something that markets have already largely anticipated.
Even if annual inflation rises to around 3.3% as forecast, investors may treat it as a temporary spike rather than a lasting inflation trend, assuming oil prices retreat if geopolitical tensions ease and a durable truce in the Middle East helps stabilize supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
However, uncertainty around the durability of any ceasefire—and political conditions tied to control of key shipping lanes—adds risk to the outlook. This makes it harder to assume a sustained decline in oil prices, and therefore keeps inflation expectations sensitive to geopolitical developments rather than the CPI data alone.
On the policy side, the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting minutes suggest policymakers are becoming more cautious about cutting interest rates. Many are concerned that inflation could remain stickier than expected, especially if higher energy prices begin to feed into broader price pressures.
Still, some analysts, such as those at BBH, argue that if underlying (core) inflation stays contained, the Fed may be able to “look through” the temporary oil-driven inflation spike and avoid tightening further, even amid a mixed U.S. labor market.
What impact might the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report have on EUR/USD?
Currently, markets are pricing in about a 75% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% by the end of the year, a sharp increase from just 17% on March 9, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
A stronger-than-expected March CPI reading may have limited impact on reshaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. However, if high inflation data coincides with renewed escalation in Middle East tensions and rising concerns that shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal levels soon, markets could start pricing in a higher likelihood of a Fed response to persistent inflation pressures. In that case, the US dollar could strengthen, pushing EUR/USD lower.
On the other hand, the dollar may stay under pressure—and EUR/USD could extend its recovery—if oil prices keep declining steadily, even if the CPI report comes in hot.
Overall, March inflation data alone is unlikely to trigger a major market reaction, with investors remaining more focused on the US–Iran geopolitical situation and its implications for energy prices.
From a technical perspective, Eren Sengezer, FXStreet European Session Lead Analyst, notes that EUR/USD’s short-term outlook remains tilted to the upside. The RSI on the daily chart has moved above 50 for the first time since the US–Iran conflict began, and the pair has broken above a two-month descending trendline.
Key resistance levels are seen at 1.1730 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the February–April move), followed by 1.1800 (61.8%) and 1.1900 (78.6%). On the downside, initial support lies at 1.1650 (38.2%). If that level breaks, sellers may target 1.1560 (23.6%) and then the psychological 1.1500 level.
Bitcoin advanced on Friday as crypto markets turned cautiously optimistic ahead of potential U.S.–Iran ceasefire talks, while expectations surrounding key inflation data kept sentiment restrained.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency gained 1.6% to $72,159.1 by 02:05 ET (06:05 GMT) and was on track for a 7.3% weekly rise, supported by improving risk appetite.
Bitcoin also drew support from hopes of more favorable U.S. crypto regulation, although progress on the CLARITY Act still appeared uncertain.
Ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran remained in sharp focus amid mixed and conflicting signals.
The discussions, reportedly scheduled to take place in Pakistan in the coming days, follow a conditional ceasefire agreement reached earlier this week. However, tensions quickly resurfaced as Iran accused the U.S. and Israel of violating the deal and called for Lebanon to be included in any broader peace framework.
Iranian state media also denied reports that its delegates had already arrived in Pakistan, saying negotiations would remain on hold until clearer assurances regarding Lebanon were provided.
Meanwhile, Iran’s continued restriction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz drew criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump. Tehran has also floated the idea of imposing tolls on passage through the waterway, a proposal Washington has rejected.
The two sides remain deeply divided, with Iran resisting U.S. demands to halt its nuclear program and surrender uranium stockpiles. The ongoing uncertainty over the conflict and its economic implications has weighed on risk assets in recent weeks, though crypto markets have shown relative resilience compared to other sectors.
Crypto prices today: Altcoins gain as markets await CPI data
Broader cryptocurrency prices edged higher on Friday, mirroring Bitcoin’s gains, although upside was capped by caution ahead of key U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation data due later in the day.
Headline CPI inflation is expected to have accelerated in March, partly driven by rising global oil and gas prices amid the Iran conflict. Stronger inflation would reduce the Federal Reserve’s incentive to cut interest rates, a development typically negative for speculative assets.
Among major tokens, Ethereum (Ether), the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 0.1% to $2,184.32, while XRP gained 0.6% to $1.3411.
Meanwhile, Solana, Cardano, and BNB traded in a narrow range, alongside memecoins such as Dogecoin and $TRUMP, which also showed little movement.
Oil prices rose on Friday amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and continued minimal tanker movement through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the gains, crude was still on track for a weekly decline as market fears eased slightly following a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. At the same time, Israel indicated a possible diplomatic shift, expressing readiness to start direct negotiations with Lebanon soon.
Brent crude increased by $0.96, or 1%, to $96.88 per barrel at 0604 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $0.78, or 0.80%, reaching $98.65 per barrel.
Both benchmarks are down roughly 11% so far this week, marking their steepest weekly drop since June 2025, when earlier Israeli-U.S. strikes on Iran were paused.
According to Saudi Arabia’s state news agency SPA, citing the Ministry of Energy, attacks on key energy infrastructure have reduced the kingdom’s oil output capacity by about 600,000 barrels per day and cut throughput on the East-West Pipeline by approximately 700,000 barrels per day.
Analysts at ANZ noted that these developments have intensified concerns about further supply disruptions.
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained below 10% of normal levels on Thursday, despite the ceasefire, as Iran asserted control by instructing vessels to stay within its territorial waters.
Although Iran and the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, clashes reportedly continued afterward.
Experts suggest Pakistan may attempt to broker a longer-term agreement, but its ability to enforce the reopening of the waterway remains limited.
A Tehran official also told Reuters that Iran is seeking to impose transit fees on ships passing through the Strait under any peace arrangement, an idea opposed by Western governments and the U.N. shipping agency.
The conflict, which began on February 28 following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, has effectively disrupted one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Energy consultant John Paisie of Stratas Advisors warned that Brent crude could surge to $190 per barrel if current shipping constraints persist, though prices would be more contained if flows improve, albeit still above pre-war levels.
Mukesh Sahdev, CEO of XAnalysts, emphasized that the critical issue is not whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, but how quickly normal oil flows can resume.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan estimated that around 50 energy infrastructure sites across the Gulf have been damaged by drone and missile attacks since the conflict began, with approximately 2.4 million barrels per day of refining capacity taken offline.
Currency markets were relatively calm on Thursday, though traders remained cautious, closely watching whether the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran would last. The announcement of the truce the previous day had already caused the dollar to fall sharply.
However, the situation remained uncertain. Israel continued its attacks in Lebanon, while Iran had yet to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supplies, leading to severe disruptions.
Iranian officials were expected to travel to Pakistan for initial peace negotiations, but Tehran stated that no agreement would be possible as long as Israel’s strikes continued.
U.S. President Donald Trump emphasized that American military forces would remain deployed in and around Iran until the country fully adhered to any agreement.
This ongoing uncertainty kept currency markets tense. The euro rose slightly to $1.1683 after gaining earlier but pulling back from a one-month high. Similarly, the British pound increased modestly to $1.342, though it also retreated from earlier highs.
In contrast, the Japanese yen weakened, with the dollar rising against it after briefly falling the previous day.
Analysts noted that the ceasefire remained fragile, especially with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, though movements in the dollar were relatively limited. Continued plans for peace talks in Pakistan helped prevent larger market reversals.
Meanwhile, new U.S. data showed inflation rising in line with expectations, with further increases likely due to the conflict. This could delay any interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
In Japan, consumer confidence declined in March, reflecting concerns about the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, though the yen showed little response. The Bank of Japan indicated that financial conditions remained supportive due to negative real interest rates.
Other currencies remained fairly stable, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars edging higher. In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin fell slightly to around $70,680.
Gold is once again being driven primarily by interest rates rather than risk sentiment, with US Treasury yields taking the lead as markets head into a heavy US data schedule.
The inverse relationship between gold and yields has strengthened notably, placing key inflation readings like CPI and core PCE at the center of attention. Prices are currently moving within a clear range, with support around $4700 and resistance between $4800 and $4850. The next directional move will likely depend on whether yields continue rising or begin to ease, while ongoing developments surrounding the US–Iran ceasefire remain a secondary influence.
This renewed sensitivity to yields signals a return to more traditional macro dynamics, following a period where gold traded more like a high-volatility risk asset.
Whether this rate-driven relationship will persist is still uncertain. However, with correlation coefficients currently sitting in the high negative 0.9 range across both short- and long-term Treasury yields, gold is now highly sensitive to movements in interest rates. This sharp linkage brings not only developments in the US–Iran ceasefire into focus, but also an upcoming wave of US economic data that is likely to challenge and validate the strength of this relationship in the near term.
Inflation data is set to put this relationship to the test.
While the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, is due later today, it may carry less weight as it reflects February data and predates the energy price shock linked to the Iran conflict. Instead, markets may focus more on income and spending figures for clues on consumption and broader economic momentum in the March quarter. Strong data could reignite concerns about rising inflation, while weaker numbers may ease pressure by signaling softer demand and hiring.
Following a weak 10-year Treasury auction midweek, attention may also turn to the 30-year bond auction for its impact on yields. Still, Friday’s release of March CPI is expected to be the key event. Headline inflation is likely to rise due to energy costs, but the critical question is whether those pressures spill into core inflation. Any reading above the 0.3% forecast could push markets to reconsider the possibility of Fed rate hikes rather than cuts this year.
Inflation expectations will also be in focus, with the University of Michigan’s 5-year outlook offering timely insight into consumer sentiment around future prices, wages, and spending.
If inflation surprises to the upside, Treasury yields are likely to climb—potentially weighing on gold given their strong inverse relationship. Conversely, softer inflation data could support bullion. Beyond economic data, developments surrounding the US–Iran ceasefire remain an important underlying risk factor.
Price action remains orderly and well-defined.
On the daily chart, the presence of a bearish pin bar reinforces the earlier signal that sellers are active in the $4800–$4850 zone, establishing it as a key overhead resistance area for traders.
A closer look at the H4 timeframe confirms both this resistance and the overall clarity of gold’s price action, especially given the broader macro volatility. The $4700 level, which previously acted as resistance, has now flipped into support and serves as the first downside level to watch. Below that, $4600 and $4550 emerge as additional support zones if the current range breaks.
On the upside, a sustained move above $4850 would open the door toward $4975, with the 50-day moving average sitting in between as a potential intermediate hurdle. Momentum indicators such as RSI (14) and MACD remain neutral, offering no strong directional bias and reinforcing the importance of reacting to price behavior around key levels.
From a short-term trading perspective, long positions could be considered above $4700 with tight risk control below that level, targeting a move back toward $4850 resistance. However, conviction in this setup is limited, and a confirmed bounce from $4700 would provide a more reliable entry signal.
Silver futures are trading within a key VC PMI decision zone after being rejected from the Daily Sell 1 level around $77.68 and failing to maintain momentum toward Daily Sell 2 at $79.96. Prices have since moved back below the Daily Mean of $75.51 and are now testing the Daily Buy 1 level at $73.23, indicating a shift from a bullish expansion phase into a mean reversion setup.
Based on VC PMI probabilities, a move into the Buy 1 level carries roughly a 90% chance of reverting back toward the mean. If the $73.23 level fails to hold, the market could extend its decline toward Daily Buy 2 at $71.06, where extreme conditions—with a 95% probability—often draw in institutional buying. The overlap with the Weekly Mean around $72.30 further strengthens this area as a key support pivot.
From a cyclical standpoint, the market is approaching a critical inflection period between April 8–10, when a directional move is likely to emerge. If prices hold above Buy 1 during this window, a rebound toward $75.53 and possibly a retest of $77.68 becomes the higher-probability scenario. On the other hand, a drop into Buy 2 within this timeframe could signal a final capitulation before a broader upward move.
Square of 9 geometry supports this structure, highlighting the $72–$73 area as a harmonic support zone, while upside levels at $77, $80, and $82 correspond to rotational resistance. A sustained breakout above $80.87 (Weekly Sell 2) would indicate a fractal shift, pushing the market into a higher trading range and confirming a longer-term bullish continuation.
Volume behavior points to accumulation during pullbacks, suggesting weaker long positions are being shaken out while stronger participants build exposure ahead of the next expansion phase. This reinforces the view that the current decline is corrective rather than structural.
Strategy: Buyers may consider gradually scaling in near Buy 1 and Buy 2 with disciplined risk control. Rather than chasing upward momentum, traders should wait for confirmation of reversal signals within the cycle window. A move back above the mean would signal a return of bullish momentum.
A Middle East ceasefire sparked a strong global rally, boosting previously underperforming country ETFs and cyclical sectors domestically.
Oil prices tumbled, bond yields declined, and the VIX dropped toward 20—pointing to a possible shift in market regime.
Early signs of technical strength are appearing, but sustained momentum will be key to confirming the rally’s durability.
“I want you all to forget the flight plan. From this moment on, we are improvising a new mission.”
These were the words of Gene Kranz to his Houston team after an explosion struck Apollo 13. Faced with a sudden crisis, he led a pivot away from the original objective of landing on the moon, improvising a new mission under severe constraints.
A Familiar Setup, Rewritten Script
More than half a century later, Americans are once again circling the moon, even as markets absorb a fresh wave of macroeconomic shocks. Under normal circumstances, attention would be turning to Q1 earnings, upcoming inflation data, and signals from the Fed—but this time is different.
The narrative is shifting. Global equities are surging on news of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. While both sides are claiming success, the true beneficiaries may be investors who stayed committed to buying the dip.
Stock Market Reacts: Risk-On Reigns
The S&P 500 surged nearly 3% in premarket trading on Wednesday, April 8, echoing the explosive “post–Liberation Day” rally seen almost exactly a year earlier. As expected, leadership came from some of the most beaten-down corners of the market: Asia-Pacific ETFs like iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT), iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ), and iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA); Europe via Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK); and U.S. small caps through iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Cyclical industries also joined the surge, including homebuilders SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) and airlines U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS), alongside strength in crypto and gold.
At the same time, energy markets moved sharply in the opposite direction. Oil plunged roughly 12%, dragging energy stocks lower. Bond yields declined, the U.S. dollar weakened, and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) broke its upward trend—classic signals of a broad “risk-on” shift.
I had planned to focus on bank stocks, but it makes more sense to examine several geopolitically sensitive charts first—to assess whether this rally has real staying power.
Tools of the Trade
To start, traders should take a look at StockCharts ACP (Advanced Charting Platform)—a highly interactive, web-based charting platform built to elevate how you analyze market behavior. It becomes especially valuable during periods of heightened volatility, whether moves unfold during trading hours or after the close.
I had it up and running at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday, just as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) began to edge higher—before accelerating sharply, almost like a launch sequence counting down.
For now, though, StockCharts SharpCharts will do the job perfectly well.
South Korea Leads the Charge
Starting with one of the highest-beta country ETFs, the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) surged nearly 10% ahead of Wednesday’s open. From its $113 low at the end of March, the post-ceasefire rally quickly extended to about 23%.
Technically, EWY has now pushed firmly above its 50-day moving average—a level that previously acted as resistance earlier in the month. That shift suggests improving momentum. With the all-time high sitting roughly 11% higher, the former resistance zone around $129 may now serve as a key support level.
For a clearer view of extended-hours activity, enabling premarket and after-hours data is essential. Taking it further, adjusting moving averages (e.g., doubling from 50 to 100 and 200 to 400) and using a 195-minute chart interval (two bars per day) helps surface important trend levels that might otherwise be missed outside regular trading hours.
Looking ahead, bulls should focus on the gap near $147. This level is particularly significant due to the heavy volume-by-price activity during the prior selloff—often a hallmark of a blow-off top. Still, with momentum building, South Korean equities appear poised to make another attempt toward the $150 level.
Global Equities vs. Homebuilders: A Clear Split
Turning to the domestic market, homebuilders tell a different story. As Brent and WTI crude surged toward $120 per barrel, the accompanying rise in interest rates quickly stopped the homebuilders’ rally. While oil-sensitive international ETFs—especially those tied to economies reliant on the Strait of Hormuz—declined sharply last month, U.S. industrial sectors that depend on lower Treasury yields also came under pressure.
The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) looks notably weaker than EWY and other Asia-Pacific ETFs. Even with a premarket move above $100, it still trades below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Sitting roughly 20% below its late-2024 peak and its high from two months ago, the sector isn’t signaling confidence yet. However, the RSI momentum indicator has just crossed above 50, which technicians typically view as a positive sign. Since momentum often leads price, this could point to a near-term rebound.
That said, XHB’s overall technical picture remains messy: strong resistance sits in the $120–$125 range, while buying interest has consistently emerged in the upper-$90s. A clearer bullish outlook would likely require a decisive breakout to new highs.
Is the Volatility Regime Shifting?
Let’s wrap up with a look at market volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index had been steadily climbing since late last year, raising concerns among macro investors, as moderately elevated volatility often signals weaker performance for the S&P 500.
However, that trend has recently reversed following the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The VIX has now broken its multi-month uptrend and recorded a clear lower low. Despite heightened expectations, volatility never reached the dramatic spike many anticipated—it topped out just above 35, only nine days after the Iran conflict began. The combination of high volatility, surging oil prices, and poor investor sentiment made March particularly challenging.
For confirmation of a new short-term volatility regime, a weekly close below 20 on the VIX would be encouraging. Historically, April tends to be a calmer month and has delivered some of the strongest global equity returns since 1988. That said, skeptics point to typically weaker second quarters during midterm election years. My view: volatility may ease in the near term, but it shouldn’t be ignored as we move toward the summer months.
The Bottom Line
Stocks surged Tuesday night after news of a temporary two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, shifting attention away from upcoming economic data like PCE inflation and March CPI. While earnings season still feels a bit off, JPMorgan Chase is set to kick things off next Tuesday morning.
The S&P 500 has climbed back above its 200-day moving average, while the Cboe Volatility Index has eased toward the 20 level. Meanwhile, several country ETFs that were heavily sold in March are now showing strong early rebounds.
The next few sessions will be crucial—markets need continued technical follow-through to sustain this bullish momentum.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday night that American ships, aircraft, and troops will stay positioned around Iran until a “real agreement” is secured with Tehran. In a social media post, he warned that fighting could begin if no deal is reached, though he suggested that outcome is unlikely.
He reiterated that any agreement must ensure Iran has no nuclear weapons and that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and secure, adding that such terms had effectively been settled long ago.
His remarks follow a tentative two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran earlier this week. However, Iran quickly accused both the U.S. and Israel of breaching elements of a proposed peace framework, rejected planned talks in Pakistan as “unreasonable,” and called for Lebanon to be included in any broader deal. Meanwhile, Israel continued strikes in Lebanon late Wednesday.
Trump has repeatedly claimed that U.S. and Israeli actions severely weakened Iran’s naval, missile, and nuclear capabilities. Still, Iran has continued military operations against U.S., Israeli, and Gulf targets, while keeping the Strait of Hormuz—an essential global shipping corridor—largely restricted. Iranian officials have also rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment.
Direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran—the first since tensions escalated in late February—are scheduled to take place in Pakistan on Friday, though the agenda and potential ceasefire terms remain unclear.
Earlier this year, the U.S. carried out its largest Middle East military buildup since 2003, deploying two aircraft carriers, multiple strike groups, and roughly 50,000 troops to the region.
Goldman Sachs slightly lowered its second-quarter oil price outlook after the U.S.–Iran two-week ceasefire, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though it maintained its medium-term forecasts and warned that risks still lean to the upside.
Oil prices dropped to the mid-$90s per barrel following the announcement, in line with Goldman’s expectations that energy flows through the Strait would begin recovering quickly and that Persian Gulf exports would gradually return to pre-war levels within about a month.
The bank cut its Q2 forecasts for Brent and WTI to $90 and $87 per barrel, respectively, from earlier estimates of $99 and $91, citing a reduced geopolitical risk premium and early signs of improving oil flows. However, it left its second-half projections unchanged, with Brent seen at $82 and $80, and WTI at $77 and $75.
Despite the ceasefire, Goldman cautioned that the situation remains fragile and uncertain, with upside risks to prices driven by the possibility of prolonged disruptions or ongoing production losses. In a downside scenario where the ceasefire breaks down and reopening of the Strait is delayed, Brent could average $100 in Q4. In a more severe case involving sustained supply losses of 2 million barrels per day, prices could rise as high as $115.
On natural gas, European TTF prices fell sharply after the ceasefire. Goldman lowered its Q2 TTF forecast to 50 EUR/MWh from 70, citing weak Chinese LNG demand that has kept European supply relatively strong. Its second-half outlook remained broadly unchanged at 42 EUR/MWh, though risks are still skewed higher. If LNG flows are disrupted further, prices could surge above 75 EUR/MWh due to the need for significant demand destruction.
The dollar stayed fragile on Thursday following broad losses, as investors closely watched whether the uneasy ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran would hold. The truce appeared uncertain, with Israel continuing its conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Tehran accusing both Washington and Tel Aviv of breaching the agreement, calling further peace talks unreasonable. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted, with ships requiring permits to pass, prompting higher oil prices as traders awaited clearer conditions.
U.S. President Donald Trump said American military forces would remain deployed around Iran until the terms of the deal were fully met. Analysts noted growing skepticism over whether the ceasefire could last or even be finalized. The dollar index was largely unchanged at 99.07, while the euro dipped slightly, sterling edged higher, and the yen weakened after giving back earlier gains.
The prolonged Middle East tensions have fueled expectations of more expansionary fiscal policy, contributing to yen weakness. Markets are currently pricing in a moderate chance of a Bank of Japan rate hike later this month, though this outlook could shift if the ceasefire collapses. Japan’s weakening consumer confidence and ongoing economic concerns tied to the conflict further complicate the central bank’s decision.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that real interest rates remain negative, keeping financial conditions loose. The dollar has benefited overall from the conflict, partly because the U.S. is a net energy exporter, unlike many oil-importing economies such as Japan and parts of Europe.
The five-week conflict has disrupted global energy supplies significantly, and despite the ceasefire, Iran retains increased influence over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Upcoming U.S. economic data, including personal spending and inflation measures, could influence the dollar’s direction, with strong figures potentially supporting a rebound.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar edged lower, the New Zealand dollar gained slightly, and cryptocurrencies declined, with bitcoin and Ethereum both posting losses.
Could markets be misjudging both oil and the war, as this analyst argues?
Possibly—but what about the relationship between oil and gold? The mainstream narrative suggests that surging oil prices are a bearish signal for gold, based on claims that “gold yields no interest” and that “the Fed might raise rates by a quarter point (though it’s unlikely), while real inflation runs near 15%,” leading to the conclusion that “gold should decline sharply against fiat currencies.”
Western analysis of oil, war, and gold is deeply troubling—arguably even reprehensible. It feels like something straight out of a Nineteen Eighty-Four… except it’s happening in reality.
A closer look at currency market dynamics suggests that as interest rates rise, the heavily indebted U.S. government faces increasing borrowing needs to sustain its finances. This pressure can lead to policies that shift the burden beyond its borders, affecting global economic stability.
History offers parallels—such as Ancient Rome—where excessive debt strained state behavior and credibility. Some argue that similar pressures are emerging in modern fiscal systems.
In simple terms, critics of fiat systems view government-issued currency as vulnerable to mismanagement, while seeing gold as a more reliable store of value for individuals worldwide.
What are the most attractive price levels for investors to accumulate more gold? Looking at the daily chart, the $4,400 range previously acted as a strong buying zone, while $4,100 represented a secondary level of support.
That said, investors may benefit more from focusing on time rather than precise price points. If gold trades within a range for the rest of the year, a disciplined accumulation strategy—such as monthly purchases (or weekly for more aggressive investors)—could be more effective.
Time-based buying helps reduce the emotional stress of trying to predict short-term price movements, which often leads to cycles of fear and greed.
Ultimately, steadily increasing gold holdings may matter more than timing the exact entry. Still, from a price perspective, the $5,600, $3,900, and $3,500 levels could all serve as attractive accumulation zones if the market pulls back.
If gold were to climb into the $6,500–$7,500 range, then $5,600 could become a particularly significant support level—potentially one of the most important in the market’s history. From there, some bullish scenarios suggest the possibility of a powerful rally toward $15,000–$20,000.
Such dramatic price action would likely require major catalysts—such as sustained inflation, escalating debt pressures, geopolitical instability, or a significant loss of confidence in fiat currencies.
The U.S. interest rate chart is drawing attention, with what appears to be a large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern suggesting a potential move toward the 7%–8% range.
At the same time, many argue that the real inflation experienced by average Americans may be closer to 8%–15%, higher than official figures. If that view gains traction, the prevailing institutional narrative—where rising rates are seen as negative for gold—could shift.
Instead, rising rates might come to be interpreted as a signal that inflation is persistent and that government financing pressures are intensifying. In that scenario, investors could increasingly turn to gold, viewing it as a hedge and continuing to accumulate it over time.
A long-term view of the 40-year U.S. inflation–deflation cycle suggests that policy shifts could have major consequences. If a future Fed leader—such as Kevin Warsh—were to scale back quantitative easing, government borrowing pressures would likely remain.
Even without aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, market forces themselves could push interest rates higher.
For investors, maintaining a focus on the broader macro picture is essential. Key factors shaping the landscape include inflation trends, tariffs, geopolitical tensions, elevated equity valuations, debt ceiling challenges, and potential shifts in global economic leadership.
Critics argue that instead of implementing significant spending cuts, policymakers have relied on measures like tariffs, which may contribute to inflationary pressure. At the same time, rising fiscal deficits and geopolitical risks could undermine confidence in government bonds, prompting central banks and institutional investors to reduce their holdings.
This dynamic may create a feedback loop: higher debt levels, rising borrowing costs, and declining bond demand reinforcing one another.
In that context, some bullish perspectives suggest that gold could see substantial long-term gains, while interest rates could continue trending higher—though projections as extreme as $20,000 gold or 20% rates remain highly speculative and dependent on extraordinary economic conditions.
And what about the miners? The GDX chart looks particularly impressive, with a clear inverse head-and-shoulders pattern forming. The head developed around the critical $85 support level, where the 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator also signaled a bottom.
After a brief two-day pullback, price is now hovering near $92—potentially setting up as a springboard for the next upward move. At the same time, a broader buy signal from the 20,40,10 MACD indicator appears to be on the verge of triggering—possibly as soon as today.
The Federal Reserve is navigating one of its toughest policy backdrops in years as the conflict with Iran unsettles global energy markets and clouds the outlook for both inflation and growth.
Heightened geopolitical volatility is forcing policymakers into a difficult balancing act: tightening too much could push the economy into recession, while easing prematurely risks fueling inflation again. For now, the most prudent approach appears to be holding rates steady until incoming data provide clearer direction on policy.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reinforced this stance in a recent AP interview, indicating a preference to keep rates unchanged “for quite some time.” However, she acknowledged flexibility, noting that rate cuts could be warranted if the labor market weakens משמעותfully, while further hikes may be needed if inflation remains persistently above target.
Meanwhile, the Treasury market has shifted its expectations. After a prolonged period of dovish positioning, investors are now assigning a higher probability to near-term rate hikes. This shift is evident in the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield—around 3.84% as of April 6—trading above the median effective Fed funds rate of 3.64%, signaling a renewed tilt toward a more hawkish outlook for the first time since 2022.
The outlook for inflation and economic growth remains uncertain, with rising concern that risks may tilt toward higher prices, slower growth—or both.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that “all roads now lead to higher prices and weaker growth,” highlighting a global environment marked by heightened uncertainty. Speaking to Reuters, she pointed to multiple risk factors—including geopolitical tensions, rapid technological change, climate disruptions, and shifting demographics—and stressed the need for vigilance even after the current shock passes.
Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve’s policy stance remains slightly restrictive. Based on a basic model incorporating unemployment and year-over-year CPI changes, current settings still lean tight, giving the central bank room to remain patient. This supports a wait-and-see approach, allowing policymakers to assess incoming data before making any decisive shifts.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee signaled that an interest rate increase may be approaching. When asked to assess economic risks on a color scale—from crisis-level red to optimistic green—he described the outlook as “at least orange,” suggesting conditions are concerning and far from ideal. Recent movements in the Treasury market appear to reflect a similar level of caution.
However, because inflation and broader economic data tend to lag, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain patient while it evaluates how the economy responds to the conflict with Iran. The difficulty lies in not delaying too long, as inflation or slowing growth could outpace policy actions, forcing the Fed into a reactive stance. This scenario echoes its delayed response during the 2021–2022 inflation surge—an error policymakers are keen to avoid repeating.
At the same time, moving too quickly carries its own risks, potentially worsening inflationary pressures or hindering growth. Ultimately, the Fed’s task is less about identifying a perfect policy and more about staying flexible in an unpredictable environment. One thing is clear: whenever the next policy move comes, it will be made amid significant uncertainty.
Markets have rebounded strongly after President Donald Trump chose to halt military action against Iran, but improved risk sentiment doesn’t change the bigger picture—oil prices are likely to stay elevated.
A clear relief rally is underway. US equity futures jumped almost immediately following the announcement of a two-week pause, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq-100 all moving sharply higher. Meanwhile, oil prices, which had surged on fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, retreated as traders quickly unwound worst-case positions.
The speed of the reaction highlights how markets had been positioned for escalation. Defensive strategies were widespread, volatility was high, and crude prices had already priced in a significant geopolitical premium. Removing even part of that risk triggered a rapid reversal.
This strong rally also reflects how stretched investor sentiment had become. Markets were preparing for a scenario where a substantial share of global oil supply could be disrupted. Even a temporary easing of those fears prompted a swift shift back into equities.
Equity markets had already hinted at a possible de-escalation. Despite increasingly aggressive rhetoric, indices had begun to stabilize, suggesting investors anticipated some form of pause. The confirmation has now accelerated the move back into risk assets.
Technology stocks are expected to lead the recovery. The sector had been hit hardest by rising yields and risk aversion, but slightly lower oil prices help ease inflation concerns, supporting valuations—especially for large-cap and AI-driven companies.
Consumer sectors should also benefit quickly. Lower oil prices reduce fuel costs, boosting household purchasing power. Airlines, travel firms, and retailers are particularly well positioned to gain from improved sentiment and lower input expenses.
Financial stocks are also likely to rise. Greater stability encourages deal-making, strengthens capital markets activity, and eases pressure on credit conditions. Banks typically perform better when uncertainty declines and risk appetite increases.
Energy stocks, however, face a more mixed outlook. In the short term, falling crude prices may weigh on them. But underlying supply constraints remain unresolved, inventories are still tight, and geopolitical fragmentation continues to influence energy flows.
There’s a reason oil prices remain significantly higher this year. The risks go beyond the current conflict. Even if shipping through Hormuz resumes, it only provides temporary relief and does not fix deeper vulnerabilities in global energy supply chains.
As a result, oil is unlikely to fall back to previous lows anytime soon. A geopolitical premium is now built into prices, and traders will continue to factor in the risk of renewed disruptions.
Attention now turns to whether the two-week pause will hold. Temporary ceasefires often come with uncertainty, effectively starting a countdown. Markets will be watching closely to see if diplomacy can turn this into a longer-term solution.
Key factors include compliance with the pause, coordination over shipping routes, and the tone of ongoing negotiations. Meaningful progress could extend the rally further, lifting industrials, cyclical sectors, and emerging markets.
However, if diplomacy fails, sentiment could reverse quickly. Oil prices would likely surge again, volatility would return, and recent equity gains could be erased.
For now, investors are navigating a narrow path between opportunity and risk. The current rally is driven by reduced immediate fear, but underlying tensions remain unresolved—and energy markets continue to reflect that uncertainty.
Positioning for short-term gains may be reasonable, but any sustained upside will depend entirely on whether diplomatic efforts lead to lasting progress.
Bitcoin edged higher on Tuesday, recovering from earlier losses as risk appetite improved after Pakistan urged President Donald Trump to extend his deadline for Iran to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Market sentiment had previously been weighed down by stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and Trump’s warning that Iran could face severe consequences if no agreement was reached by his deadline.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last trading 0.5% higher at $69,845.4 as of 17:43 ET (21:43 GMT).
Pakistan calls for a deadline extension and proposes a two-week ceasefire.
Pakistan, now a key intermediary between the U.S. and Iran, said diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East conflict are advancing steadily and could yield meaningful results in the near term.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif urged President Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks to give negotiations more time, while also calling on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the same period as a goodwill gesture. He further appealed to all sides to observe a two-week ceasefire to create space for diplomacy and work toward a lasting resolution.
According to Reuters, Tehran is responding positively to the proposal, while Axios reported that Trump has been informed of Pakistan’s initiative, citing the White House press secretary.
Trump’s Tuesday night deadline approaches.
Earlier on Tuesday, Trump warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” while expressing reluctance but suggesting the outcome seemed likely. He had already threatened to strike Iran’s bridges and power infrastructure if no deal was reached by his 20:00 ET deadline.
He also insisted that any ceasefire must include Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been closed since the conflict began, pushing global oil prices higher.
Reuters reported that Iran denied any negotiations with the U.S., accusing Washington of seeking surrender under pressure. Meanwhile, Iran’s Tasnim news agency said Tehran could target additional oil facilities, including those linked to Saudi Aramco, if U.S. attacks on energy infrastructure proceed.
An analyst at Nexo Dispatch noted that markets remain cautious rather than panicked, with investors waiting for the deadline to pass before taking a clearer stance.
Inflation data due later this week is in focus.
Bitcoin has increasingly moved in line with overall risk sentiment, as geopolitical tensions overshadow earlier optimism about diplomatic progress.
Attention is now shifting to upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the March consumer price index due Friday. Rising energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict are expected to lift inflation, which could strengthen expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer.
Such a backdrop may weigh on Bitcoin, as the asset typically underperforms in a high-rate environment.
According to Nexo’s Kalchev, ongoing energy-driven price pressures mean each inflation reading this week carries outsized importance for crypto—cooler data could revive hopes for rate cuts, while stronger figures would reinforce the higher-for-longer outlook.
Bitcoin ETFs record their largest daily inflows since February.
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their largest daily inflows since late February on Monday, as investors positioned ahead of the Iran deadline.
The funds saw a total of $471.3 million in inflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $181.9 million. Fidelity’s FBTC and ARKB followed, attracting $147.3 million and $118.8 million, respectively, according to SoSoValue. Notably, no ETF reported any outflows during the session.
Most altcoins also rebounded on Tuesday, moving in line with Bitcoin’s gains.
Ethereum edged up 0.1% to $2,141.62, while XRP rose slightly by 0.1% to $1.3366. Solana gained 1.7%, and Cardano increased 0.4%. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin advanced 1.6%.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran just hours before his deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face major strikes on civilian infrastructure. The move marked a sharp reversal from his earlier warning that catastrophic consequences would follow if his demands were ignored. Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif played a key role in brokering the deal, with talks potentially set to continue in Islamabad.
The agreement hinges on Iran easing its blockade of the strategic waterway, which carries about 20% of global oil shipments. In response, Iran signaled it would halt counterattacks and allow safe passage if hostilities against it cease. While Trump hailed the deal as a “total victory” and a step toward long-term peace in the Middle East, Iranian officials framed it as a win for their own conditions being accepted.
Despite optimism, uncertainty remains over whether the ceasefire will hold, with some officials viewing it as a temporary confidence-building measure. Israel backed the pause in strikes on Iran but indicated the truce does not extend to Lebanon, highlighting conflicting interpretations of the agreement. Meanwhile, hostilities appeared to continue shortly after the announcement, with missile activity reported and defensive systems activated across the region.
Markets reacted positively to the news, with oil prices dropping, stocks rising, and the dollar weakening amid hopes that trade through the Strait of Hormuz could resume. Global leaders welcomed the development, noting both the economic risks and human toll of the six-week conflict, which has killed more than 5,000 people. Analysts suggest the ceasefire may reflect growing pressure on Trump to de-escalate a prolonged and unpopular war, while still framing the outcome as a strategic success.
The U.S. dollar fell to a one-month low in Wednesday’s Asian session, while major currencies such as the euro, yen, Australian dollar, and British pound surged after President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran.
The yen gained 0.8% to 158.36 per dollar, the euro rose 0.7% to $1.1674, sterling advanced 0.8% to $1.34, and the Aussie jumped 1.1% to $0.7054. Earlier, Trump had issued strong threats against Iran’s civilian infrastructure, warning of severe consequences if his demands were ignored, drawing global criticism.
Market sentiment quickly shifted toward risk-taking following the ceasefire news, which came shortly before a U.S. deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts noted that reopening the key shipping route could further support the current rally, though uncertainty remains over the coming two weeks, leaving currencies exposed to potential pullbacks.
Attention then moved to central bank policy outlooks as oil prices plunged. Brent crude dropped 13.4% to $94.68 per barrel, though it stayed elevated compared to pre-conflict levels.
The New Zealand dollar rose 1.5% to $0.5819 after the country’s central bank held its policy rate at 2.25% for a second consecutive meeting, while signaling readiness to act if inflation rises. Meanwhile, Fed funds futures suggested a roughly even chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, a shift from the previous day’s stronger expectation that rates would remain unchanged.
The dollar index slipped for a third straight session to 98.838, its lowest since March 11. Elsewhere, the South Korean won climbed 1.6% despite renewed tensions on the Korean Peninsula, where North Korea launched additional ballistic missiles.
Cryptocurrencies also advanced, with bitcoin rising 2.9% to $71,327.07 and ether gaining 5.6% to $2,233.90.
Bitcoin slipped below $69,000 on Tuesday as risk sentiment weakened ahead of a deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or risk military action.
The cryptocurrency was last down 0.8% at $68,525.1 as of 03:06 ET (07:06 GMT).
It had briefly climbed above $70,000 on Monday on hopes of a ceasefire, but was unable to sustain the gains.
Traders on edge as Trump’s deadline for Iran draws near, stoking fears of U.S. strikes and market volatility.
Markets are bracing for possible U.S. strikes on Iran as a deadline set by President Donald Trump approaches.
Sentiment worsened after Iran rejected a U.S.-backed ceasefire plan, instead calling for broader terms, increasing fears of escalation.
Trump has warned Iran could be “taken out” if it fails to comply by his 8 p.m. ET deadline, including potential strikes on critical infrastructure such as power plants and bridges.
The standoff has rattled global markets, pushing oil above $110 per barrel as concerns grow over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude supply.
Rising energy prices have intensified inflation worries and boosted demand for safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar.
Bitcoin has been trading more closely with overall risk sentiment, with geopolitical tensions outweighing earlier hopes for diplomatic progress.
Attention is now shifting to upcoming U.S. inflation data, especially Friday’s CPI report, which is expected to show upward pressure from higher energy costs—potentially keeping interest rates elevated for longer, a backdrop that could weigh further on Bitcoin.
Most altcoins extended losses on Tuesday as risk-off sentiment persisted in crypto markets.
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 1.5% to $2,103.92, while XRP dropped 2.4% to $1.31.
Solana and Polygon each declined about 3%, and Cardano lost more than 4%.
Gold prices dipped in Asian trade on Tuesday, marking a third consecutive day of losses, as investors grappled with inflation and interest-rate concerns ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s looming deadline on Iran. Spot gold eased about 0.2% to roughly $4,640 an ounce by early U.S. trading, while U.S. gold futures also retreated. Markets had closed lower on Monday after a volatile session.
Trump’s warning to Iran fuels concerns about rising inflation.
Trump’s escalating rhetoric on Iran added to inflation concerns, even as geopolitical tensions intensified. He warned that Iran could face severe consequences if it failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by his Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline, increasing fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East.
The standoff has already disrupted global energy supplies and driven oil prices higher, further fueling inflation expectations and clouding the outlook for monetary policy.
Although gold is usually supported by geopolitical uncertainty, it has instead weakened as rising oil prices feed inflation worries and reduce the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Higher interest rates tend to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold, while a stronger dollar has also added pressure on bullion prices.
Iran has turned down a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire.
Diplomatic efforts to ease the conflict have made limited headway. Iran has rejected a U.S.-backed proposal for a 45-day ceasefire and a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Instead, Tehran is pushing for a comprehensive settlement that includes sanctions relief, security assurances, and compensation for damages.
The absence of any breakthrough has increased uncertainty in financial markets, with investors closely monitoring developments ahead of Trump’s deadline.
Market participants are also awaiting key U.S. inflation figures due on Friday, which are expected to offer further signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
In other precious metals, silver declined 0.9% to $72.16 per ounce, while platinum fell 1% to $1,963.60 per ounce. Meanwhile, copper prices moved higher, with benchmark London Metal Exchange futures rising 0.7% to $12,422.5 a ton, and U.S. copper futures edging up 0.3% to $5.62 per pound.
Sterling fell on Tuesday, trading around $1.3234 at 03:50 ET, as the U.S. dollar held firm ahead of a White House deadline linked to the U.S.–Iran conflict.
The decline extended recent losses, with GBP/USD briefly dipping to an intraday low of $1.3211, while the 52-week low remains at $1.2721.
The dollar gained support from heightened geopolitical uncertainty as investors awaited clarity on a potential ceasefire. A failure to reach an agreement could lead to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure, increasing the risk of retaliatory action across the Gulf region.
Rising energy prices have also bolstered the greenback. Further gains in oil and gas amid escalating tensions would be “unambiguously dollar-positive,” according to ING strategist Chris Turner.
Stronger U.S. domestic data has added to dollar strength. The March jobs report surprised to the upside, while markets now largely expect the Federal Reserve’s policy stance to remain unchanged this year, contrasting with expectations for additional rate hikes among other major central banks.
ING noted that stronger activity data and higher energy costs could shift expectations toward Fed tightening. Investors are now focused on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Friday’s March CPI report for further guidance.
Headline U.S. inflation is forecast to rise to 3.4% year-on-year from 2.4%. Comments from New York Fed President John Williams will also be closely watched for any change in tone.
ING expects the dollar index (DXY) to stay supported within a 100–100.50 range.
Elsewhere, the euro remained under pressure, with EUR/USD at $1.1544 and trading within a 1.1420–1.1640 band. Markets have reduced expectations of an April ECB rate hike to just below 50%, though around 75 basis points of tightening is still priced in for the year.
ING warned that if the ECB holds off on an April move despite elevated energy prices, the euro could face additional downside pressure.
In Central and Eastern Europe, markets followed global trends. Czech inflation is expected to rise due to higher fuel costs, while Romania’s central bank is projected to keep rates at 6.50% despite persistent double-digit inflation. Poland’s central bank is also expected to maintain its 3.75% rate, with forward guidance later in the week in focus.
In Asia-Pacific, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday. The New Zealand dollar has underperformed the Australian dollar this year, and without a hawkish surprise, that divergence may continue.
Thinner liquidity later in the week due to holidays could amplify price swings driven by geopolitical developments.
Markets tilted back toward buyers, but it’s still too early to call a sustained rally. The S&P 500 led the move, breaking above downtrend resistance, though it has yet to test its 20-day moving average. A fresh MACD buy signal emerged, but its strength remains questionable as the indicator is still below the zero line.
The Russell 2000 (IWM) closed above its 20-day moving average but still needs to overcome more meaningful resistance at prior highs. After holding firmly above its 200-day MA, it has generated fresh buy signals in both On-Balance Volume and MACD. The index is also showing relative outperformance versus its peers.
The Nasdaq Composite remains below key range support and downtrend resistance. While the past three sessions saw constructive buying—with new buy signals in MACD and On-Balance Volume—the broader picture is largely unchanged, and the index still leans bearish.
Bitcoin has seen little change in its overall setup, but still tilts in favor of the bulls and may offer a trading opportunity. From a technical standpoint, there’s a confirmed buy signal in On-Balance Volume and a potential buy trigger emerging in the MACD.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has successfully back-tested its breakout and held above the 20-day moving average. The next step is a push toward the 47,000 level. The move is supported by buy signals in both MACD and On-Balance Volume, with the index also outperforming its peers.
Indices that have rallied over the past three sessions are unlikely to extend gains into a fourth, or at least don’t offer attractive long setups. Bitcoin continues to present the most compelling long opportunity. On the short side, there’s limited conviction—though the Nasdaq Composite could provide a setup on a test of the 47K level.
This week will remain driven by developments in the Middle East, although a packed schedule of economic data—including the FOMC March minutes, February personal income, and March CPI—will also draw significant focus.
President Donald Trump said Wednesday night that the United States could wind down its role in the Iran conflict within two to three weeks, offering a potential exit from tensions that have unsettled energy markets since late February. Still, oil prices remain elevated amid ongoing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump indicated the U.S. would leave to other nations to reopen.
However, over the weekend, Trump warned that if the strait is not reopened immediately, Monday would mark “Obliteration Day,” with the U.S. prepared to strike Iran’s power infrastructure.
The March 17–18 Federal Reserve minutes (Wednesday) will provide insight into how policymakers viewed the early phase of the conflict. Meanwhile, the March CPI report (Friday) will offer the first indication of how rising gasoline prices are feeding into broader consumer inflation.
Below are the key U.S. economic releases likely to influence investor expectations for growth, inflation, and the path of monetary policy this week:
GDP
Thursday’s final Q4 2025 GDP revision is expected at 0.7% (SAAR), a backward-looking figure that is unlikely to sway markets, having been weighed down by the government shutdown. The bigger focus is on Q1 2026, where the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model has eased to 1.6% (see chart).
We believe unusually severe winter weather in December, January, and February weighed on recent real GDP growth. Over this period, there was a notable rise in the number of workers who either missed work or shifted to part-time due to harsher-than-normal conditions (see chart).
CPI
The March CPI report (Friday) is the most important release of the week. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Inflation Nowcasting model suggests headline and core inflation rose 0.84% and 0.20% m/m, respectively, or 3.25% and 2.60% y/y—up from 2.40% and 2.50% in February (see chart).
The historical link between oil prices and headline CPI makes the expected March increase largely predictable; every major surge in crude has typically been followed by a rise in headline inflation (see charts). We expect oil prices to peak within the next two months, although this will depend on a swift resolution of tensions in the Middle East.
Unemployment
Friday’s payrolls report surprised to the upside, providing reassurance about the near-term strength of the labor market. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) have continued to trend lower, with the four-week moving average at 207,800 (see chart). So far, claims data show no signs that the war is weakening labor market conditions.
Consumer Sentiment
The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for April is expected to ease to 52.0 from 53.3 in March, with expectations already subdued at 51.7 (see chart). Meanwhile, The Conference Board consumer confidence surprised to the upside last week at 91.8, suggesting sentiment may be more resilient than consensus expectations imply.
Oil surged at the Asian open on Monday, bonds declined, and equities were mixed as Donald Trump warned of “hell” if Iran fails to meet his Strait of Hormuz deadline.
Crude prices advanced after the Easter break, with the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran continuing to disrupt global supply.
The dollar remained firm, while the yen hovered near the key 160-per-dollar level amid market unease over escalating Iran tensions and Trump’s deadline.
Japan’s benchmark yields climbed to a 27-year high as Middle East conflict fueled inflation concerns and strong U.S. jobs data reduced expectations for early rate cuts.
Gold edged lower, weighed down by a stronger dollar, as elevated oil prices and robust U.S. labor data dampened hopes for Federal Reserve easing.
Dow Jones futures ticked higher Sunday night, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also posting modest gains as investors remained cautious amid fresh U.S.–Iran tensions and rising oil prices.
The S&P 500 advanced during the holiday-shortened week, breaking a five-week losing streak. Earlier, the index had recorded its worst quarter since 2022, weighed down by late-February declines linked to the conflict and surging energy costs. However, markets rebounded last week despite continued gains in crude oil.
All three major indexes ended their five-week slides, each rising at least 3%. Still, equities have faced pressure this year due to concerns over AI disruption, weakness in private credit, and ongoing Middle East uncertainty, leaving the S&P 500 roughly 6% below its late-January peak.
U.S. Economic Data & Earnings Preview
Investors are closely watching upcoming inflation data, particularly Friday’s March Consumer Price Index, which is expected to rise 0.9% month-over-month—an early indication of the inflationary impact from the war-driven surge in energy prices. U.S. crude oil has climbed roughly 90% so far this year, pushing average gasoline prices above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years.
Another key release comes Thursday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures report, a preferred inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve and a crucial input for its interest-rate decisions.
Economic calendar:
Monday (Apr 6): Donald Trump holds a press conference at the Oval Office at 1:00 p.m.
Tuesday (Apr 7): Austan Goolsbee participates in a live Q&A in Detroit at 12:35 p.m.
Wednesday (Apr 8): Federal Reserve releases minutes from its March meeting at 2:00 p.m.
Thursday (Apr 9): February PCE report is published.
Friday (Apr 10): March CPI data is released at 8:30 a.m., with forecasts pointing to a 0.9% monthly increase.
Earnings calendar:
Wednesday (Apr 8): Delta Air Lines reports Q1 results before the open, while Constellation Brands posts its fiscal Q4 earnings.
Delta’s recent performance reflects the typical volatility of the airline sector, where fuel costs, labor expenses, and consumer demand fluctuate. The company has held up relatively well by focusing on higher-income travelers who are less sensitive to inflation, even as demand for economy-class seats weakened. In Q4, main-cabin revenue dropped 7% to $5.62 billion, while premium ticket revenue increased 9% to nearly $5.7 billion.
The stock reaction to Delta’s January 14 earnings was muted: adjusted EPS declined 13% year-over-year to $1.55, slightly beating expectations, while revenue rose 3% to $16 billion. Looking ahead, the company projects full-year adjusted EPS of $6.50–$7.50 (midpoint $7.00, below the $7.25 consensus) and Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.50–$0.90, roughly in line with market estimates.
Technical Analysis
DJIA Technical Outlook
The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently broke out above a descending channel, which has now turned into support around 45,760.
As long as the index holds above this level, it is likely to extend its rally toward 47,430, followed by a potential short-term pullback. A clear breakout above 47,430 would signal further upside, with the next target near 48,400.
Notably, the index successfully retested and rebounded from the previous all-time high zone around 45,000—an encouraging sign that the broader uptrend remains intact.
Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook
The Nasdaq-100 has rebounded from the previously identified support near 23,000.
To maintain upward momentum, the index needs to stay above 23,990, which would open the way for a move toward 24,330 this week. However, a rejection at the 24,330 level could push prices back down toward the 23,000 support zone.
In the near term, the NDX is likely to trade within a range of 23,000 to 24,330 until a decisive breakout establishes a clearer direction.
S&P 500 Technical Outlook
The S&P 500 rebounded from the 6,335–6,340 support zone and delivered a strong rally last week, in line with the previous outlook.
To continue the upward trend, the index needs to break above the 6,610–6,615 resistance area, which would open the path toward 6,705.
If that breakout fails, the SPX is likely to move sideways within a 6,510–6,610 range, with potential downside risk extending to around 6,475.
Weekly U.S. Indices Probability Map
The U.S. weekly probability map for March 30 to April 3, 2026 indicates that the following week (April 6–10) has historically been bullish for major U.S. indices, suggesting a favorable environment for upward momentum.
These probability maps are based on historical seasonality trends, while sentiment indicators are generated using a scoring system derived from those seasonal patterns.
Iran and the United States have received a proposal outlining a path to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to multiple media reports citing informed sources, with the plan potentially taking effect as early as Monday.
As reported by AP, the initiative—drafted by Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey—was shared with both sides overnight and follows a two-phase structure: an immediate ceasefire followed by a comprehensive agreement. A source told Reuters that all elements must be agreed the same day, with the initial arrangement expected to take the form of a memorandum of understanding finalized electronically via Pakistan, which has acted as the sole communication channel.
Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was reportedly in continuous contact overnight with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
Axios earlier reported that U.S., Iranian, and regional officials were discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire as part of a broader two-stage deal that could ultimately end the conflict. Under the proposal—dubbed the “Islamabad Accord”—a ceasefire would take effect immediately, reopening the Strait, while 15 to 20 days would be used to finalize a wider settlement, with in-person talks planned in Islamabad.
The final agreement is expected to include Iran pledging not to pursue nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets. However, sources in Pakistan said Iran has yet to commit, despite intensified diplomatic efforts, and has not responded to proposals backed by Pakistan, China, and the United States.
Iran has prepared its reply to the proposed ceasefire terms, according to a foreign ministry spokesperson.
Iran has outlined its positions and demands in response to recent ceasefire proposals delivered through intermediaries, a foreign ministry spokesperson said Monday, stressing that negotiations cannot proceed under ultimatums or threats of war crimes.
Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei noted that Tehran’s requirements—based on national interests—have already been communicated via intermediary channels, while earlier U.S. proposals, including a 15-point plan, were rejected as excessive.
He emphasized that clearly stating Iran’s legitimate demands should not be seen as compromise, but as confidence in defending its stance. Baghaei added that Iran has prepared its responses and will disclose further details in due course.
US and Iran consider a peace proposal as Trump warns of severe retaliation if the Strait remains closed.
The United States and Iran have received an outline for ending the conflict, but Tehran has refused to immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even after Donald Trump warned of severe consequences if no deal is reached by Tuesday.
According to a source, the proposal follows a two-stage plan: an immediate ceasefire, followed by a broader agreement to be finalized within 15–20 days. Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, has reportedly been in continuous contact with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi.
Iran, however, has rejected reopening the Strait under a temporary truce and dismissed imposed deadlines, while also expressing doubts about Washington’s commitment to a lasting ceasefire.
Earlier, Axios reported that the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators were exploring a potential 45-day ceasefire as part of a phased deal toward ending the war.
Trump, posting on Truth Social, issued a deadline of Tuesday evening, threatening further strikes on Iran’s infrastructure if the Strait remains closed.
Meanwhile, airstrikes continued across the region, more than five weeks into the conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Tehran has responded by effectively shutting the Strait—through which about 20% of global oil and gas flows—and launching attacks on Israel, U.S. bases, and energy sites in the Gulf.
Officials in the UAE emphasized that any agreement must ensure free passage through the Strait, warning that failing to curb Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities could lead to greater regional instability.
Despite repeated U.S. claims of weakening Iran’s military capacity, recent Iranian strikes on petrochemical facilities and vessels in Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE highlight its continued ability to retaliate.
The conflict has caused heavy casualties: thousands have died in Iran, including many civilians, while Israel and Lebanon have also suffered significant losses as fighting spreads, including clashes with Iran-backed Hezbollah forces.
Asian currencies moved without a clear trend on Monday, while the dollar remained steady as investors weighed escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against signs of renewed ceasefire efforts.
The US Dollar Index inched up 0.1% following recent gains, with its futures also rising 0.1% as of 02:52 ET (06:52 GMT).
Trump issues ultimatum to Iran; Axios reports ongoing ceasefire negotiations
Trump issued a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while reports from Axios pointed to ongoing ceasefire discussions. Traders closely watched the situation as he warned Tehran to resume tanker traffic by 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday or risk strikes on key infrastructure such as power plants and bridges.
Market sentiment improved slightly after Axios reported that the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators were negotiating a potential 45-day ceasefire, although no deal had been finalized.
In currency markets, USD/JPY remained largely unchanged, while USD/KRW slipped 0.3%. Regional currencies were also shaped by persistently high oil prices following a recent surge, which typically weigh on major importers like Japan, South Korea, and India by worsening their trade balances.
Meanwhile, USD/CNY fell 0.1%, USD/SGD was steady, and AUD/USD rose 0.3%.
Indian rupee weakens; RBI policy decision expected later this week
The Indian rupee weakened, with the USD/INR pair rising 0.6% to 93.281 on Monday, after touching a more than two-week low of 92.585 in the previous session.
The currency had strengthened over the past five sessions, supported by measures from the central bank.
Attention now turns to the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision on Wednesday, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged despite the rupee’s decline.
Meanwhile, investors are also reacting to stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll data released on Friday, which has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported that hedge funds offloaded global equities in March at the fastest pace in 13 years, marking the second-largest wave of selling since its prime brokerage began tracking the data in 2011.
The selloff was largely driven by a surge in short positions, as investors bet on further market weakness amid ongoing conflict in Iran. Global equities reflected this pressure, with the MSCI All-Country World Index dropping 7.4%—its worst monthly performance since 2022—while the S&P 500 Index fell 5.1% over the same period.
Fast-moving hedge funds increasingly used exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to express bearish views, with short positions in large-cap equity ETFs driving a 17% rise in overall short exposure across U.S.-listed ETFs.
In the U.S., selling was widespread, hitting eight out of 11 sectors, with the heaviest outflows seen in economically sensitive areas such as industrials, materials, and financials.
At the same time, fund managers rotated into more defensive assets, buying consumer staples stocks at the fastest pace since July 2025—driven entirely by new long positions.
Meanwhile, hedge funds turned net buyers of technology, media, and telecom stocks for the first time in four months, though this was mainly due to short covering rather than fresh bullish bets.
UBS remains bullish on gold, expecting prices to hit fresh highs this year as upside risks continue to build, according to strategist Joni Teves in a Thursday note.
Gold has faced pressure recently, as markets reacted to the inflationary effects of rising oil prices and the possibility of further interest rate hikes. Higher U.S. real yields and a stronger dollar have also weighed on the metal.
Despite this, Teves views recent declines as buying opportunities. He noted that the likelihood of gold extending its bull run over the next few years is increasing, particularly if weaker economic growth leads to fiscal or monetary stimulus—factors that would support higher prices. UBS reiterated that its overall outlook remains unchanged, continuing to expect new highs this year and encouraging investors to use pullbacks to build positions.
The bank now forecasts gold to average $5,000 per ounce in 2026, slightly lowered from its previous $5,200 estimate due to recent price adjustments after January’s peak. Projections for 2027 and 2028 remain unchanged at $4,800 and $4,250, respectively.
Teves also pointed out that speculative positions have been largely cleared out, while ETF outflows remain limited, creating room for renewed investor demand. Strong inflows into gold ETFs in China and steady domestic physical demand are expected to support imports through the second quarter. UBS believes the market is currently underinvested and sees any dip toward $4,000 as an attractive entry point. The bank also highlighted a structural shift, with more investors—both public and private—treating gold as a long-term strategic asset for diversification and portfolio protection.
For silver, UBS lowered its 2026 forecast to $91.9 per ounce from $105, though it still expects silver to outperform gold during rallies. However, Teves cautioned that silver’s industrial exposure makes it vulnerable to global economic slowdowns, which could weaken demand and sentiment. As a result, the gold-to-silver ratio may struggle to revisit earlier lows and is more likely to bottom in the 50–60 range rather than around 40.
Platinum and palladium face similar challenges from softer industrial demand, although potential supply disruptions—especially if Middle East tensions affect South African mining—could offer some support.
Currencies moved within narrow ranges on Friday as investors stayed cautious amid ongoing Middle East tensions, while reduced liquidity from the Good Friday holiday kept market activity subdued.
The U.S. dollar was largely steady after gaining 0.4% in the prior session, supported by safe-haven demand following remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran.
Tensions surrounding Iran remained elevated, with Trump signaling the possibility of expanded military action in the coming weeks and warning that key infrastructure—such as bridges and power facilities—could be targeted.
However, sentiment showed slight improvement on Thursday after Iran indicated it was working with Oman on a framework to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of disruptions along a critical oil route.
In Asia, the Japanese yen held flat, with USD/JPY trading near the closely watched 160 level. Japan’s finance minister also cautioned that authorities were prepared to intervene against speculative currency moves amid rising volatility.
Other regional currencies, including the South Korean won and Singapore dollar, saw limited movement.
Meanwhile, the Indian rupee weakened slightly to 92.71 per dollar but remained on track for a weekly gain of over 2%, recovering from earlier losses after support measures from the Reserve Bank of India helped stabilize the currency.
The RBI imposed limits on banks’ foreign exchange positions and restricted non-deliverable forward trades, prompting the unwinding of speculative bets and increased dollar selling in the domestic market.
Elsewhere, the Chinese yuan edged lower. Data released earlier showed China’s services sector growth slowed in March, with the Ratingdog Services PMI declining from February’s recent peak.
Investors are now focusing on the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which may offer further insight into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
For the first time, India’s mutual fund industry is now permitted to include silver within equity and hybrid portfolio structures, marking a significant shift in asset allocation options.
To put this into perspective, India is already the world’s most silver-intensive consumer market in bullion and investment demand. Silver imports reached a record 247.4 million ounces (Moz) in 2024, while holdings in silver ETFs surged about 195% year-on-year—from roughly 13 Moz at the end of 2023 to 38.6 Moz by the end of 2024, nearly tripling within a single year. This growth reflects a deeply rooted cultural preference for silver that is not matched in most Western markets.
Despite this strong demand base, India’s large institutional capital pools previously had no scalable or direct route to allocate to silver ETFs through standard equity and hybrid fund structures.
As of April 1, 2026, that constraint has been lifted.
What SEBI Has Changed and Why It Is Important
India’s Securities and Exchange Board of India has officially introduced two linked reforms today, reshaping the way mutual funds in India are able to invest in silver.
The valuation change is largely technical but still important: funds benchmarked to the London price previously traded at a persistent divergence from actual silver prices in Mumbai. That spread acted as a structural barrier to institutional participation. Its removal effectively eliminates an arbitrage that had made silver ETF exposure in India less precise for fund managers.
The allocation change, however, is the more consequential structural shift.
India’s mutual fund industry manages around ₹82 trillion (about $950 billion) in assets under management as of February 2026. Equity and hybrid schemes form the largest segment. Before this reform, these schemes were not permitted to allocate to silver at all. The new framework changes that, though access is limited to the residual allocation bucket—assets left after meeting core equity or hybrid mandates—capped at 35% and shared among gold, InvITs, and debt instruments as competing options.
To put the scale in perspective:
A 0.1% allocation from equity and hybrid AUM into silver ETFs would translate to roughly $950 million in new demand, or about 13 Moz at current prices.
A 0.5% allocation would imply around $4.75 billion, or approximately 65 Moz.
A 1.0% allocation would equate to about $9.5 billion, or roughly 130 Moz.
These figures represent potential scale rather than immediate inflows; actual deployment will depend on how quickly fund managers adopt the new flexibility and is expected to unfold gradually. Moreover, this is a simplified upper-bound illustration, as silver must compete within the residual bucket alongside other asset classes such as gold, InvITs, and debt. Analysts cited by the Economic Times suggest most equity schemes are unlikely to fully utilize the 35% cap and will instead treat precious metals as a tactical, not structural, allocation.
Even so, when set against a sixth consecutive structural silver deficit projected at around 67 Moz by Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, even conservative participation levels could be material relative to the underlying supply shortfall.
The growth trend that was already in motion
What makes this reform significant is the existing momentum it builds upon. Even before institutional access was expanded, Indian retail investors were already fueling strong growth in silver ETPs:
That nearly threefold increase between 2023 and 2024—and almost fivefold growth over two years—was driven entirely by retail investors and fund categories that already had permission to hold silver. The institutional equity and hybrid segment contributed nothing to that expansion.
The SEBI reform today layers institutional access onto a base that was already accelerating at a 63% annual growth rate before 2024, before surging 195% in 2024 alone. The key question is no longer whether institutional capital will eventually flow into silver through this channel, but how quickly fund managers begin acting on a mandate that did not exist until now.
Why Institutional Flows Behave Differently
Retail silver demand in India is inherently cyclical and seasonal. Wedding seasons drive jewelry and silverware purchases, while festivals spur buying of coins and bars. This demand is substantial—reflected in 247.4 Moz of imports in 2024—but it fluctuates strongly with the calendar.
Institutional allocations operate on a different mechanism. Once a fund’s mandate includes silver ETFs, exposure is expressed as a portfolio weight and rebalanced systematically over time. It does not switch off after festivals, weaken during sentiment downturns, or disappear in corrections. The first clear signal of adoption will likely appear in AMFI monthly flow data, which tracks how mutual funds are reallocating across asset classes, showing whether managers are actively implementing the new framework or taking a cautious, wait-and-see approach.
The structural significance, therefore, is not immediate multi-billion-dollar inflows. It is the creation of a permanent allocation channel in a market that already combines the world’s largest physical silver demand base with a rapidly expanding institutional asset management system.
The SEBI reform is one component. The broader story is the convergence of multiple catalysts within a very short time window.
Gold futures continue to display a strong bullish monthly structure, with momentum remaining firmly upward as prices hold above the VC PMI mean at $4,761. This level acts as a key equilibrium point, and sustained trading above it is typically interpreted as a sign of institutional accumulation and ongoing trend strength.
The recent move into the $4,815–$4,820 area suggests the market is shifting from a consolidation phase into a broader expansion phase. At the same time, rising volatility is increasingly aligned with upward price continuation, supporting a bias toward further gains.
From a VC PMI perspective, the market has held above the Buy 1 level at $4,047, where historical demand typically emerges with a high probability (around 90%) of mean reversion. The fact that price has not retested this level further strengthens the bullish structure and suggests continued buyer dominance.
On the upside, the next key structural reference points are Sell 1 at $5,392 and Sell 2 at $6,106, which are viewed as extended deviation zones above the mean. As price moves closer to these areas, conditions tend to favor profit-taking rather than new long entries.
Cycle analysis also points to a favorable momentum phase extending into early to mid-April, supporting continued upside expansion in line with the recent breakout above the mean. A key cycle turning point is expected around mid-April, where the market may either accelerate toward Sell 1 or enter a period of consolidation. Looking further ahead into May–June, broader cycle structure continues to lean bullish, supporting the potential for higher highs and a sustained move toward and potentially beyond the $5,000 level.
Square of 9 geometry further supports this outlook, with key harmonic resistance emerging around the $4,950–$5,050 zone, followed by a larger expansion node near $5,392 (Sell 1). A decisive break and sustained trade above $5,050 would signal a shift into a higher-momentum geometric phase, increasing the likelihood of continuation toward upper projected levels. These price zones are interpreted as natural vibration points where both time and price align, reinforcing the probability of trend persistence.
Overall market conditions remain bullish while price holds above $4,761. The preferred strategy continues to favor buying dips rather than selling strength, as long as this structural support remains intact. A breakdown back below the mean would weaken momentum and return the market to a neutral posture.
There is currently no indication of an “earnings recession,” and first-quarter corporate results are expected to show continued strength, with earnings surprises considered a normal pattern. In the fourth quarter, S&P 500 earnings increased at an annualized rate of 14.1%, while analysts are projecting roughly 14% growth for the first quarter.
On the labor front, ADP reported 62,000 private-sector jobs were added in March, exceeding economists’ forecast of 40,000. The increase was partly driven by the resolution of the Kaiser healthcare strike and improved weather conditions that supported construction hiring. However, manufacturing employment declined by 11,000, while trade, transportation, and utilities saw the largest losses, totaling 58,000 jobs.
Retail activity also provided positive signals for growth, with the Commerce Department reporting a 0.6% rise in February retail sales, slightly above expectations of 0.5%. Auto sales increased by 1.2%, suggesting stronger demand for durable goods, and gains were recorded in 10 of 13 retail categories.
Consumer sentiment also improved modestly, as the Conference Board’s index rose to 91.8 in March from 91 in February. The present situation sub-index increased significantly, while the expectations component slipped slightly. The improvement in sentiment was likely supported by better weather conditions during the month.
On the geopolitical front, President Trump is expected to address the nation, following remarks from both him and Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggesting that an end to the conflict may be approaching. Trump indicated that U.S. forces could begin withdrawing within a few weeks.
However, risks remain around the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping conditions are still unstable despite an increase in traffic. Recent attacks, including one targeting a Kuwaiti oil tanker, highlight ongoing tensions. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized the need for allied nations to help secure and reopen the waterway. The UAE is reportedly preparing to support efforts to restore access, including pursuing a UN Security Council resolution.
Overall, there is an expectation that the administration is seeking to reduce crude oil prices by stabilizing the Strait of Hormuz. Ensuring the resumption of fertilizer shipments through the passage is also seen as critical, given its importance for agricultural productivity and food price stability during the planting season.
Gold prices declined in Asian trading on Thursday, ending a four-session rally as markets responded to renewed escalation signals from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the Iran conflict.
Spot gold was last down 1.4% at $4,693.12 per ounce as of 22:21 ET (02:21 GMT), after briefly reaching an intraday high of $4,800.58. U.S. gold futures also fell nearly 2% to $4,721.80 per ounce.
Market sentiment shifted after Trump stated in a televised address that the U.S. would intensify military action against Iran over the next “two to three weeks,” reaffirming Washington’s position on blocking Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. He added, “We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong.”
The comments contrasted with earlier remarks this week suggesting the U.S. could withdraw from the conflict within a similar timeframe, even without a formal agreement.
Financial markets have remained highly reactive to changing rhetoric on the conflict as investors reassess geopolitical risk. Oil prices rebounded following Trump’s remarks, raising concerns about inflationary pressures that could keep interest rates higher for longer and reduce demand for non-yielding assets like gold.
The U.S. dollar also strengthened after two consecutive losing sessions, further weighing on gold by making it more expensive for foreign buyers.
Investors are now focused on upcoming U.S. jobs data due Friday for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, a key driver for precious metals.
Elsewhere in metals, silver dropped 3.2% to $72.77 per ounce, while platinum slipped 1.7% to $1,934.60 per ounce.
Oil jumped over 4% on escalation fears.
Oil prices surged by more than $4 on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States would continue military strikes against Iran, including energy and oil infrastructure, over the coming weeks, while offering no clear timeline for ending the conflict.
Brent crude futures jumped $4.88, or 4.8%, to $106.04 per barrel at 0200 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $4.17, or 4.2%, to $104.29 per barrel.
The rally followed earlier weakness, as both benchmarks had dropped by more than $1 earlier in the session ahead of Trump’s address and closed lower in the prior trading day.
In his televised national speech, Trump said U.S. forces had nearly achieved their objectives in the conflict with Iran and that the war was approaching its conclusion, though he did not specify a timeframe. “We are going to finish the job, and we’re going to finish it very fast. We’re getting very close,” he said.
Geopolitical risks in the region have escalated, with threats to maritime shipping increasing. On Wednesday, an oil tanker chartered by QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters, according to the country’s defence ministry.
Meanwhile, the head of the International Energy Agency warned that supply disruptions are beginning to affect Europe’s economy, with the region having previously relied on pre-war contracted oil shipments.
The U.S. dollar fell on Wednesday, touching a one-week low, as expectations of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East conflict reduced demand for the currency’s safe-haven appeal.
At 17:10 ET (21:10 GMT), the U.S. Dollar Index—which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies—was down 0.4% at 99.65.
Trump says Iran has requested a cease-fire and hints at a possible U.S. withdrawal, but ties any pause in fighting to conditions on the ground.
On Wednesday, Trump stated on Truth Social that Iran’s newly installed president had requested a ceasefire, describing him as “less radical and more intelligent” than his predecessors. He claimed the United States would only consider the request once the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and secure, adding that U.S. forces would continue striking Iran until then.
He also said that if Iran’s request is confirmed, it could signal a further step toward de-escalation, though uncertainty remains over the status of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply and has reportedly been disrupted since the conflict began, contributing to higher oil prices.
In earlier remarks from the Oval Office, Trump suggested the U.S. could begin withdrawing forces within two to three weeks, arguing that the objective of eliminating Iran’s nuclear threat had already been achieved and that no formal agreement would be necessary to end the conflict.
The White House also announced that Trump is scheduled to address the nation at 21:00 ET (01:00 GMT) with an “important update on Iran.”
The dollar posts its strongest monthly performance since July 2025.
The greenback ended Tuesday, closing out March with its strongest monthly performance since July last year.
Rising oil prices, driven by supply disruptions following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have raised concerns about a potential inflation shock. This has prompted investors to reassess expectations for central bank rate cuts and, in some cases, price in a higher likelihood of rate hikes.
A “higher-for-longer” interest rate outlook typically supports the U.S. dollar, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing Middle East tensions. The currency has also benefited from the U.S. position as a net energy exporter, as well as a broader shift toward cash holdings.
According to David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, the Dollar Index has been a key beneficiary of regional instability. He noted that the dollar surged last month as investors moved into the currency in a classic flight to safety, at the expense of traditional havens such as precious metals, U.S. Treasuries, and currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Morrison added that the index appeared to have broken above long-term resistance near the 100 level, suggesting a potential bottom after a weak year. However, he cautioned that momentum may now be stalling, implying that dollar bulls may need to wait for clearer signals before expecting further sustained gains.
Euro, yen, and sterling end the month lower.
The euro (EUR/USD), sterling (GBP/USD), and Japanese yen (USD/JPY) were largely unchanged on Wednesday.
However, developed market currencies underperformed the U.S. dollar over March. The euro and British pound recorded their weakest monthly results since July and October 2025, respectively, while the yen also posted its worst month since October.
Europe and Japan, both heavily dependent on Middle Eastern supplies of liquefied natural gas and fuel, have been more exposed to the impact of rising oil prices than the United States.
The inflationary pressure from higher oil costs linked to the Iran conflict is already beginning to appear in economic data. Preliminary Eurostat figures showed eurozone inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February. Energy prices are projected to be the main driver, with annual energy inflation accelerating to 4.9% after a 3.1% decline in the previous month.
In the UK, which is experiencing its fifth oil supply shock in roughly a decade, concerns are growing that rising energy costs could tip the economy toward recession, according to Deutsche Bank economist Sanjay Raja.
Bitcoin edged slightly higher on Wednesday, trimming earlier gains but still holding just above flat as risk assets benefited from optimism over de-escalation in the Middle East. President Donald Trump stated that Iran’s new leadership had reportedly requested a ceasefire.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency had finished March in the prior session with a gain of nearly 2%, ending a five-month losing streak marked by significant declines.
Bitcoin was up 0.3% at $68,478.6 as of 17:26 ET (21:26 GMT).
Trump says Iran has asked for a ceasefire, but U.S. will only consider it once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Trump suggested a possible end to the conflict, claiming on Truth Social that “Iran’s New Regime President, much less radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!”
He added that the U.S. would “consider” the request once the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free, and clear,” warning that until then, “we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages.”
If verified by Iran, the statement would signal a notable step toward de-escalation, though uncertainty remains over the Strait of Hormuz—a key energy route handling about one-fifth of global oil and gas flows—which has been effectively disrupted since the conflict began, driving global oil prices higher.
The remarks followed Trump’s earlier comments on Tuesday that the U.S. planned to wind down military operations against Iran within two to three weeks, arguing that Washington had already met its objectives, including damaging Iran’s nuclear ambitions and contributing to regime change in Tehran.
He also suggested that Iran would not need to formally agree to a deal to end the war, leaving markets uncertain about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Reports this week indicated the U.S. may leave any reopening effort to European and Gulf allies rather than take direct action.
Rising energy prices tied to the conflict have been a key inflation concern for markets throughout March, fueling expectations of a more hawkish stance from global central banks—an outcome typically negative for speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Google research highlights potential cryptocurrency vulnerabilities linked to quantum computing.
In a recent white paper, Google researchers warned that cryptocurrencies may be more exposed to advances in quantum computing than previously believed. They noted that quantum machines could potentially undermine elliptic curve cryptography—the encryption method underlying Bitcoin.
Their analysis suggests that breaking this cryptographic system could require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits on a superconducting quantum computer, about 20 times lower than earlier estimates. Although such hardware does not yet exist in practice, the researchers cautioned it could become feasible by around 2029.
They also encouraged the crypto industry to begin preparing a shift toward post-quantum cryptographic systems to safeguard blockchain networks. The study included contributions from organizations such as Coinbase, the Stanford Institute for Blockchain Research, and the Ethereum Foundation.
Altcoins gain ground today as hopes of de-escalation in Iran tensions lift market sentiment.
Broader crypto markets climbed on expectations that the conflict could be winding down.
Ethereum (Ether) rose 2.7% to $2,159.79, while XRP gained 1.1% to $1.3550.
Solana traded slightly higher, and Cardano advanced 3.6%, while BNB slipped 0.4%.
In memecoins, Dogecoin added 0.8%, whereas $TRUMP declined 0.6%.
Despite a broadly flat-to-weaker March driven by war-related risk aversion, altcoins generally held up better than many other speculative assets.
On the charts, both gold and the U.S. equity market are positioning for a meaningful upside move, with technical structures suggesting continued strength ahead.
A look at the short-term gold chart shows a clean ascending triangle formation, with price coiling beneath resistance and building pressure for a breakout. The measured move from this setup points toward the $5,000–$5,100 range.
That implies a strong continuation for those who accumulated during the dip into the $4,100 zone. Even more notable is that, despite the roughly $400/oz rally off the lows, gold still appears to be trading within a broader buy zone rather than an overextended blow-off phase.
On the daily timeframe, gold may be forming a large continuation structure, with a projected move that could extend beyond the $7,000 level.
At the same time, momentum indicators are deeply stretched to the downside. The MACD (20,40,10) is at one of its most oversold readings in years, and both the Stochastic (14,7,7) and RSI are showing similarly extreme conditions. This kind of setup often precedes a strong upside continuation once momentum resets.
The U.S. stock market “buy zone” setup reinforces the bullish case. When the Dow Jones Industrial Average and gold simultaneously test strong support levels, it often creates some of the most favorable entry points across gold, silver, and mining equities.
Right now, the Dow is sitting near the 45,000 level—a technically significant support zone—while key momentum indicators like RSI, MACD, and Stochastics are deeply oversold. That mirrors the condition in gold, where downside momentum appears exhausted.
In simple technical terms, this is a coordinated setup: gold is the asset with explosive upside potential, while the stock market provides the broader risk-on backdrop that helps fuel the move. If both stabilize and turn higher together, it creates the kind of alignment that can drive powerful upside trends across the precious metals complex.
From a fundamental perspective, the messaging backdrop matters as much as the data. When policymakers try to stabilize sentiment, it’s far more effective when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is sitting at a major technical support zone—like the 45,000 area. Strong support gives credibility to optimistic guidance; it’s easier to “talk up” markets that are already positioned to bounce.
The geopolitical layer adds another dimension. A potential de-escalation or deal involving United States and Iran would be a key variable, particularly through the energy channel. While the timing and likelihood remain uncertain, the market clearly needs some form of resolution to stabilize expectations.
The chokepoint is the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for global oil flows. If disruptions persist and the passage isn’t fully normalized, supply constraints could intensify. Right now, the pressure is being felt more acutely across parts of Asia, but energy executives warn that shortages could begin affecting Western economies within weeks if conditions don’t improve.
That feeds directly back into inflation. Sustained energy tightness keeps input costs elevated, which complicates central bank policy just as labor markets are softening. So while the technical setup points higher, the fundamental story hinges on whether energy pressures ease—or continue to reinforce the inflation side of the equation that’s already limiting policy flexibility.
A striking long-term oil chart is emerging, showing a major head-and-shoulders formation, with a potential price target around $245.
Curiously, the U.S. central bank seems to be brushing off the risks of a debt-financed war and rapidly building stagflation.
Meanwhile, surging fuel costs are crushing truckers, pushing some into bankruptcy. Airlines are raising fees, traffic through Hormuz has plunged from around 150 ships a day to just a handful, yet Fed Chair Jay Powell appears largely unfazed.
Equities may still be gearing up for another record run, potentially coinciding with oil pulling back toward the $70–$80 range. But beyond that…
Western investors may soon face a harsh realization: soaring oil prices, stagflation, excessive debt, and war are no longer the clear bearish signals for gold they were once thought to be.
The “March to Hades” chart highlights the long-term decline of U.S. fiat relative to gold.
Mainstream narratives often frame gold as a risky asset—something investors trade occasionally for large fiat gains. But in reality, the currency dynamic is the reverse. Seasoned gold advocates view gold as the superior form of money, meaning fiat should be used as the trading vehicle to accumulate more gold—locking in gains not in dollars, but in ounces.
Miners? The GDX daily chart looks exceptional—arguably a “chart of the year” contender.
At its core, a powerful technical setup is unfolding: the Dow, gold, and GDX are all testing support levels simultaneously, with oscillators flashing buy signals across the board.
The GDX chart itself appears remarkably clean—almost pristine.
For momentum traders, this could be an attractive entry point. Personally, I’d consider small positions in U.S. equities, while taking more meaningful exposure to gold, silver, and mining stocks. For gold-focused investors, it may be time to part with some fiat and lean into the opportunity on the buy side.
For years, a dependable macro strategy was to buy dips when economic data weakened. Softer labor figures implied a more accommodative Fed, leading to lower discount rates and, in turn, higher equity valuations. That chain is now being tested.
The key issue this Wednesday isn’t whether the data are weak—they clearly are. The real question is whether markets can continue to interpret soft data as a trigger for policy easing when inflation signals remain stubborn.
A Familiar Macro Play—and Why It May Be Breaking Down
For much of the past three years, equity markets leaned on a simple framework: weaker growth would trigger easier monetary policy, and that easing would offset the damage from slowing activity. Soft payrolls boosted expectations of rate cuts, often lifting stocks. Weak manufacturing data pushed bond yields lower, compressing discount rates and supporting higher valuations—especially in growth equities. The pattern became almost automatic.
But that playbook only works when slowing growth comes with easing inflation. A disinflationary slowdown gives the Fed room to cut rates. When growth weakens while inflation pressures stay firm, that flexibility disappears. Easing policy into persistent price pressure risks unanchoring inflation expectations, which could later require more aggressive tightening. Today’s data point to exactly that mismatch: labor conditions are deteriorating, while inflation-sensitive indicators remain elevated. The JOLTS hires rate for February dropped to 3.1%, near pandemic-era lows, with hiring at its weakest since March 2020. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s 12-month consumer inflation expectations rose to 5.2% in March, up from 4.5% in January. In other words, hiring is slowing sharply even as households expect higher inflation ahead.
Jerome Powell addressed this dilemma directly in remarks at Harvard on Monday. He highlighted the downside risks to the labor market, which argue for lower rates, alongside upside risks to inflation, which argue against easing. The Fed can afford to sit with that tension and wait for clearer trends—but markets typically cannot; they adjust immediately to incoming data. If Wednesday’s ISM Prices Paid index stays elevated following February’s 70.5 reading—the highest since mid-2022—it would reinforce what the mixed signals already suggest: this is not the kind of slowdown the old “buy-the-dip” reflex was designed for.
What the Hiring Data Is Already Signaling
The labor market’s weakening is showing up more clearly in the JOLTS hires rate than in headline payroll numbers. This metric tracks gross hiring as a share of total employment, and at 3.1% in February, it has dropped to levels last seen during the pandemic slowdown. While layoffs remain relatively low—and initial jobless claims around 213,000 suggest companies aren’t aggressively cutting staff—the real shift is in reduced hiring activity. The labor market is losing momentum on both sides: workers are less willing to quit, and employers are less willing to hire. Both trends point to softening demand.
The quit rate has stayed at or below 2.0% for eight straight months through February, with total quits falling to 2.97 million—the lowest since August 2020. When workers stop leaving jobs, it reflects declining confidence in finding better opportunities. This kind of stagnation tends to push unemployment higher धीरे through attrition rather than layoffs, making the deterioration less visible in monthly payroll reports. February’s payroll decline of 92,000 followed a series of inconsistent and often weak readings, including multiple recent negative months. Even January’s gain was driven by narrow sector strength rather than broad-based hiring. For March, the FactSet consensus sits at +57,000, but much of that expected increase may simply reflect the return of workers temporarily excluded in February due to a healthcare strike—hardly a sign of genuine improvement.
The ADP private payroll report, scheduled for release Wednesday morning, will offer an early look at March hiring trends. While ADP emphasizes that its data is independent and not a forecast of official figures, its February reading of +63,000 diverged significantly from the government’s count. At this point, the exact number matters less than the direction: whether hiring picked up meaningfully in March, or whether the slowdown seen in JOLTS extended into the new data.
Technical Snapshot
JOLTS – February 2026 (released Mar 31) Job openings declined to 6.9 million from 7.2 million in January. Hiring totaled 4.85 million, with the hires rate at 3.1%—near pandemic-era lows and the weakest since March 2020. Quits fell to 2.97 million, marking an eighth straight month at or below 2.0%.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence – March 2026 The headline index came in at 91.8, above the 88.0 consensus. The Present Situation component rose 4.6 points to 123.3, while Expectations slipped 1.7 points to 70.9—its 14th consecutive month below the 80 threshold often associated with recession risk. One-year inflation expectations climbed to 5.2%, up from 4.5% in January.
ISM Manufacturing PMI – February (latest actual) The headline PMI registered 52.4. The Prices Paid component surged to 70.5, the highest since June 2022. The March reading is due Wednesday, April 1 at 10:00 AM ET, marking the first release since the late-February escalation.
ADP Private Payrolls – March (Apr 1, 8:15 AM ET) Still pending. February showed a gain of 63,000, though this diverged sharply from the BLS estimate (roughly -50,000 in private payrolls). ADP emphasizes that its figures are independent and not a direct forecast of official data.
Nonfarm Payrolls – March (Apr 3, 8:30 AM ET) Consensus stands at +57,000, according to FactSet. U.S. equity markets (NYSE, Nasdaq) will be closed for Good Friday, with SIFMA recommending a full bond market closure. The next regular equity session is Monday, April 6.
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Currently at 4.41%, hovering near an eight-month high and up 44 basis points from 3.97% before the late-February escalation.
U.S. National Average Gasoline Price (AAA, Mar 31) $4.00 per gallon, reaching that level for the first time since August 2022.
How the Data Panels Frame the Argument
The three panels together lay out the core evidence. The first highlights a choppy payroll trend with several negative prints, and even if March meets expectations, hiring remains subdued. The second shows that the drop in the hires rate is not just monthly noise but a structural shift—hovering near pandemic-era lows while separations stay relatively stable, meaning the weakness is concentrated in reduced hiring. The third panel captures the real tension: consumer confidence from the The Conference Board came in stronger than expected at 91.8, yet the Expectations index sits at 70.9, below the recession signal threshold for 14 straight months. At the same time, 12-month inflation expectations climbed to 5.2%. Households are both pessimistic about growth and anticipating higher inflation—a mix that limits the Fed’s flexibility. Cutting rates risks reinforcing inflation expectations, while holding steady risks deepening the slowdown.
ISM Prices Paid: The Deciding Variable
While early attention will likely focus on the ADP payroll release, the more critical variable is the inflation signal from ISM. The Prices Paid index surged to 70.5 in February, its highest since mid-2022, reflecting rising input costs across commodities and tariffs. March will be the first reading to fully capture conditions after the late-February conflict, including the energy shock.
With oil prices elevated and gasoline back above $4 per gallon, this release becomes the first real test of how deeply cost pressures are feeding into the production chain. If Prices Paid remains high—or climbs further—while hiring data weakens, it creates the exact setup that challenges the old market playbook. Soft labor data alone would typically support expectations of easing, but persistent cost pressures make that response less likely without accepting inflation risk.
That divergence matters. The traditional “bad data is good news” logic only works when both growth and inflation move in the same direction. If hiring weakens while inflation signals stay firm, that relationship breaks down.
A Shift in Market Interpretation?
The issue isn’t that one week of data changes the macro outlook—it’s that the framework markets use to interpret data may no longer hold. The familiar reflex—weak data leads to rate-cut expectations, which lifts equities—was built in an environment where the Fed had room to ease because inflation was falling alongside growth. When those two forces diverge, that reflex starts to fail.
Jerome Powell emphasized this balance in recent remarks, noting that policy operates with long and variable lags and that the Fed does not respond mechanically to every short-term shock. That approach preserves institutional credibility. Markets, however, operate differently—they price probabilities in real time. The risk isn’t simply weak data; it’s weak data paired with stubborn inflation, which removes the usual policy backstop.
What Comes Next: CPI as the Decisive Test
The next major checkpoint is the March CPI release on April 10. February’s data largely preceded the late-February shock, while March will begin to reflect its impact—especially through energy prices. If CPI confirms what current indicators suggest—a cooling labor market alongside rising inflation expectations—it would strengthen the case that the old interpretation mechanism is no longer reliable.
Wednesday’s data won’t settle the question. But it will be the first structured test of whether markets can still treat weak data as bullish in an environment where inflation refuses to cooperate.
After oil’s sharp rally reversed into a steep decline, other asset classes followed in a classic de-escalation pattern, falling back into alignment.
Key takeaways:
Markets are pricing a shorter conflict, not full peace—declining duration risk is driving oil lower Oil remains the key transmission channel—once its war premium faded, yields dropped, the dollar weakened, and equities rallied.
Positioning played a major role—crowded long oil trades unwound while short equity positions were squeezed, especially into month-end .
The $34B pension rebalancing flow amplified the move but wasn’t the initial trigger.
The narrative has shifted from escalation to exit, though it remains fragile Fed policy stability helped calm markets.
If the ceasefire narrative holds, the rally continues; if it fails, oil will lead a broader reversal
Market dynamics:
Global markets rebounded sharply into month-end as investors began pricing in a potential off-ramp to the conflict disrupting energy flows. Oil and the dollar fell, while equities surged, with the S&P 500 gaining over 2% in one of its strongest rebounds in months.
The shift came as signals emerged that the conflict may be shorter than feared, with Iran indicating conditional willingness to end hostilities and U.S. leadership suggesting a limited engagement timeline.
Markets don’t wait for peace—they react to credible signs that worst-case scenarios may be avoided.
Oil had been pricing not just supply disruption, but the risk of prolonged impairment, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. As expectations for conflict duration shortened, that premium quickly unwound.
Prices fell not because supply returned, but because the market no longer needed to price a prolonged disruption. Even the possibility of earlier normalization was enough to move oil lower.
At the same time, positioning reversed. Previously crowded bullish oil trades lost momentum, triggering profit-taking and accelerating the decline.
As oil dropped, the broader market followed: lower energy prices eased inflation expectations, pushing yields down and supporting equities. The Fed’s pause on tightening further stabilized conditions, allowing markets to react more freely to improving sentiment.
Month-end pension inflows and short covering in equities added fuel, forcing stocks higher beyond what fundamentals alone would justify.
The dollar weakened as global portfolios rebalanced, reinforcing easier financial conditions and supporting risk assets.
Big picture:
Oil is falling due to reduced duration risk, yields are easing with lower inflation expectations, the dollar is softening as defensive positioning unwinds, and equities are rising on a mix of flows, positioning, and relief.
Markets have quickly shifted from panic to recovery, staging a sharp turnaround in just days.
Now, attention turns to whether this emerging “exit narrative” is credible. Both sides have shown some willingness to de-escalate, but uncertainties remain—especially around internal dynamics in Iran and Israel’s broader strategic objectives.
The next phase will be determined not just by headlines, but by price confirmation:
Oil must keep falling
Yields must stay contained
The dollar must continue weakening
Because markets are not reacting to reality—they are anticipating it.
Right now, investors are no longer trading the war itself, but the gap between expected outcomes and what ultimately unfolds—a space that holds both opportunity and risk.
Bitcoin edged higher on Tuesday, lifted by improved sentiment across risk assets amid renewed hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was also on track to post a monthly gain for March, potentially ending a five-month losing streak. By 18:04 ET (22:04 GMT), Bitcoin had climbed 2.1% to $68,197.3.
Fighting in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran showed little sign of slowing, as exchanges of strikes continued across the Gulf region. However, reports suggested that President Donald Trump is weighing a potential reduction in U.S. military involvement, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. While such a move could hint at partial de-escalation, ongoing disruptions to energy supply are likely to persist, raising inflation risks and keeping global monetary policy tight—conditions that typically weigh on speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, Iran signaled it could be open to ending the conflict if security guarantees are provided.
Separately, researchers at Google warned that advances in quantum computing may threaten current cryptographic systems sooner than expected. They noted that future quantum machines could potentially break elliptic curve cryptography—the foundation of blockchain security—using fewer resources than previously believed, urging the crypto industry to transition toward quantum-resistant solutions before such risks materialize.
Despite volatility, Bitcoin was still heading for a modest gain in March, although it remained well below its yearly highs and was down roughly 22% year-to-date. Performance across altcoins was mixed: Ether looked set to rise nearly 7% and end a six-month losing streak, while XRP, Solana, and Cardano posted declines, with the latter seeing the steepest drop. Meme tokens also underperformed, with notable losses across the segment.
Overall, digital assets appeared to close out a turbulent quarter on a steadier footing, with total market capitalization hovering around $2.3 trillion and signs of renewed institutional inflows offering some support to the market.
Gold extended its rally for a fourth consecutive session in Asian trading on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker dollar as investors assessed signs that the U.S. and Iran may be moving toward ending the Middle East conflict.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,694.16 an ounce by 21:35 ET (01:35 GMT), while U.S. gold futures gained 1% to $4,724.55. The metal had surged 3.5% in the prior session alongside a retreat in the dollar, though it still posted a decline of more than 11% for March.
Prices found support after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated Washington could withdraw from the conflict within “two to three weeks,” fueling hopes of de-escalation. Still, uncertainty around the timing and terms of any agreement kept market sentiment cautious.
On Iran’s side, state media reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled readiness to end the war, while maintaining key demands, including assurances against future attacks.
A softer dollar further underpinned gold by making it more appealing to overseas buyers, with the U.S. Dollar Index slipping 0.1% in Asian trading after a 0.6% drop in the previous session.
However, gains were limited by reports that Trump may halt the U.S. military campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, underscoring ongoing risks to global trade.
Gold’s rise this week follows recent volatility, as prices rebound from a sharp March selloff driven by a stronger dollar and changing expectations for U.S. interest rates.
In other precious metals, silver fell 1.1% to $74.35 per ounce, while platinum advanced 1% to $1,972.06 per ounce.
The dollar slipped Tuesday as hopes grew that the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran might be shorter than feared. Still, it remained on track for its strongest quarter since late 2024, supported by safe-haven demand amid ongoing uncertainty. The dollar index fell 0.59% to 99.96 but was headed for a 2.35% monthly gain and a 1.7% rise for the quarter.
Since the conflict began in late February, the greenback has been buoyed by its safe-haven appeal and the U.S.’s relative resilience to oil disruptions as a net energy exporter. Reports suggested President Donald Trump may be open to ending the campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, though officials including Pete Hegseth warned the situation could escalate without a deal.
Uncertainty remains high, with Iran threatening retaliation against major U.S. companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Apple. Analysts say the dollar may stay supported as long as geopolitical risks and market volatility persist.
Meanwhile, China and Pakistan called for an immediate ceasefire and renewed negotiations. Markets were also influenced by positioning ahead of key U.S. labor data, after job openings and hiring came in weaker than expected. Attention now turns to the upcoming March jobs report, which could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Among other currencies, the euro and pound rebounded modestly, while the Japanese yen strengthened for a second day amid intervention warnings from Japanese officials. In crypto markets, Bitcoin rose 1.75% to $67,757.
Gold is stabilizing above $4,500, though its recovery remains uncertain following a steep sell-off earlier this month. Despite a modest rebound at the start of the week, momentum is still fragile.
Gains in oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and a stronger U.S. dollar continue to limit gold’s upside potential. In the near term, resistance around $4,700 and support near $4,400 are expected to define its trading range.
Gold began the week on a positive note, rising 0.8% in early Monday trading. However, the recent surge in geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran triggered a sharp decline, and while prices are rebounding, it may be premature to view this as a full recovery.
Oil Price
Oil prices remain the key driver of market sentiment. Crude has stayed elevated after intensified weekend fighting between Israel and Iran, with the Houthis also entering the conflict. Although Trump claimed progress in negotiations, Iran has continued to reject those assertions.
While U.S. futures and European markets showed some early stability, this could prove short-lived, as seen in prior weeks. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen and bond yields remain firm.
Brent crude holding above $110 is reducing expectations for rate cuts and even prompting some to consider possible hikes. Typically, a stronger dollar and rising yields would pressure gold, but increased safe-haven demand is helping to keep it supported for now.
Still, investor confidence has weakened after gold’s previous strong upward trend stalled in recent months. Looking ahead, everything hinges on developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices, inflation, and central bank policy.
If tensions ease and oil prices decline in the coming weeks, the U.S. dollar could soften, which would support gold and other risk assets. However, the situation remains highly uncertain. Iran appears reluctant to negotiate, potentially leveraging elevated energy prices. Until there is clear progress toward de-escalation, any short-term market moves should be viewed cautiously.
XAU/USD technical analysis
Gold finished last week largely unchanged, rebounding from Monday’s decline after experiencing notable losses in the prior weeks. Importantly, it managed to stay above the $4,400 level — its February low — which provides a modestly positive signal.
That said, stronger confirmation is still needed before traders can conclude that gold has formed a bottom. Multiple resistance levels overhead may limit further gains, particularly as the metal has been in a downtrend since its peak in January.
Key Levels to Watch
A crucial area on the upside is the former short-term bullish trendline, now acting as resistance, along with the $4,700 level. This zone is strengthened by the 21-day exponential moving average near $4,750, making the $4,700–$4,750 range a significant barrier if prices continue to rise.
Beyond that, the next resistance lies between $4,800 and $4,840 — a region that has previously served as both support and resistance. A strong breakout above this band could open the path toward the key psychological level of $5,000.
On the downside, the $4,400–$4,500 zone is a critical support area. A daily close below this range would weaken the short-term outlook and could lead to a decline toward last week’s lows near $4,100, where the 200-day moving average provides additional support.
Further down, longer-term support is seen around $4,000, where a major upward trendline aligns with this important psychological level.
Overall, gold remains in a fragile position and has yet to fully stabilize.
The main disruption in financial markets right now is the sharp rise in both food and energy prices, reflected in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the highest import costs in four years. March inflation data for these sectors is expected to be particularly severe, with many economists now forecasting annual inflation above 4%. This has already pushed Treasury yields higher, especially following weak demand at a recent auction. As a result, expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts have diminished.
However, a weak March jobs report or potential stress in private credit markets could prompt the Fed to lower rates sooner than expected, despite persistent inflation pressures. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at Harvard this week, and investors will be watching closely for signals on whether slowing job creation could justify policy easing.
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is also keeping many investors cautious and on the sidelines. Historically, markets tend to rebound once war-related concerns ease.
Despite broader volatility, fundamentally strong companies continue to hold up well. For example, Argan (AGX) surged after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results, with strong gains in both revenue and earnings. As a data center-related company, its performance has also supported other stocks in the same sector.
Looking ahead, the U.S. is expected to maintain significant influence over global energy markets, including regions in the Caribbean, North America, and the Middle East. Lower domestic energy prices remain a priority, especially after substantial profits among energy producers. With a potential oversupply of crude oil in the coming months, energy stocks may face pressure, except possibly for tanker companies unless earnings forecasts improve significantly.
Overall, the U.S. is likely to remain the primary driver of global economic growth, continuing to attract international investment due to its stronger GDP outlook and a firming dollar.
The classic rock song Blinded by the Light points to a misguided investing habit: buying into the aura of Wall Street’s elite “white-shoe” firms. These institutions portray themselves as stabilizing forces in the global economy, yet history often reveals a different picture—one of reckless decision-makers leading the charge.
Goldman Sachs received nearly $23 billion in government bailouts due to mistakes made during the financial crisis.
Lehman Brothers—once considered among the smartest in finance—collapsed after over-leveraging itself into bankruptcy.
Wells Fargo paid $175 million to settle claims of discriminatory lending practices, charging higher rates and fees to around 30,000 African American and Hispanic borrowers compared to similarly qualified white customers.
J.P. Morgan was involved in a $25 billion settlement for “robo-signing,” which pushed thousands of homeowners into foreclosure.
Across some of the most prominent names in finance, the pattern goes beyond questionable practices to include profound management failures. Lehman Brothers stands out: its own analysts would likely have labeled such excessive leverage a “Strong Sell” in any other company. Despite knowing the risks, the firm doubled down on flawed bets—ultimately steering itself toward collapse.
And These People Manage Money for Others?
That’s where the real “stupid investment trick” comes in: assuming that if a product is offered by names like Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, or UBS, it must be reliable. Prestige gets mistaken for protection.
To be fair, poor or even unethical advice isn’t limited to elite firms—companies of all sizes can fall short. But the difference with these legacy institutions is that their brand carries weight. They leverage reputation as a selling tool. So when a polished advisor keeps pitching a “can’t-miss” opportunity, it’s worth pausing. More often than not, the real driver isn’t your long-term success—it’s fees, commissions, and asset gathering.
If these firms truly had foolproof strategies, they wouldn’t need to chase clients. The urgency and persuasion are part of the sales machine, not necessarily a reflection of quality.
The smarter approach is simple but often overlooked: build a clear, personalized investment plan. Not a generic template generated by software, but a dynamic strategy—something you actively review, question, and refine with your advisor over time.
Without that framework, you’re reacting instead of deciding. Flashy presentations, complex products, and confident voices can easily pull you off course. A solid plan gives you a filter: does this opportunity actually fit your goals, risk tolerance, and timeline—or is it just noise dressed up as sophistication?
Because if you’re relying solely on “the smartest guys in the room” without your own roadmap, you’re not really investing—you’re just hoping not to get blinded.
Bitcoin edged higher on Monday as investors digested mixed signals from both the U.S. and Iran regarding the ongoing Middle East conflict.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency had logged a two-week losing streak by Friday, with broader risk assets under pressure since the war began.
As of 18:13 ET (22:13 GMT), Bitcoin was up 1.4% at $66,734.8.
Iran escalation in focus
Markets on Monday signaled a worsening conflict in Iran, particularly after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi group entered the fray by launching missiles at Israel over the weekend.
Their involvement risks opening a new front, given their ability to carry out attacks in the Red Sea.
Separately, President Donald Trump warned he could target key Iranian energy infrastructure, including Kharg Island, if Tehran fails to reach an agreement with the U.S.
Trump said Washington was engaged in “serious discussions with a new, and more reasonable, regime,” though he added that failure to strike a deal—and reopen the Strait of Hormuz—could lead to sweeping attacks on Iran’s power plants, oil fields, and desalination facilities.
Iran has denied any direct negotiations. State media reported that while messages had been relayed through intermediaries, Tehran rejected U.S. demands as “excessive” and “illogical,” citing foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei.
The White House later said public statements differed significantly from private communications, maintaining that talks were still ongoing.
Meanwhile, crypto markets began the week on a steadier note. Total market capitalization rose 1% over the past 24 hours to $2.32 trillion, despite renewed concerns over Middle East tensions, according to Dessislava Ianeva of Nexo Dispatch. She noted that geopolitical developments continue to drive short-term volatility and heighten the importance of upcoming macroeconomic data.
Strategy may pause Bitcoin buying streak
Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, may have skipped adding to its holdings last week, according to a Coindesk report.
Executive Chair Michael Saylor typically hints at upcoming purchases in a Sunday post on X, followed by a formal announcement on Monday. This time, however, his post focused on promoting Strategy’s preferred equity offerings instead.
If confirmed, the pause would break a 13-week buying streak dating back to late December, during which the company accumulated a total of 90,831 Bitcoin, Coindesk said.
Crypto prices moved higher on Monday, with altcoins following Bitcoin’s upward trend.
The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, gained 3.1% to $2,034.71, while XRP rose 0.8% to $1.3282. BNB, Solana, and Cardano posted increases of 1.2%, 2.6%, and 2.7%, respectively.
Among meme coins, Dogecoin edged up 1.2%, and $TRUMP jumped 2.9%.
A massive oil tanker near Dubai was struck by an Iranian attack following the latest threats from Trump.
Iran struck and set fire to a fully laden crude tanker near Dubai on Monday, as President Donald Trump warned Washington would destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure if Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The targeted vessel, the Kuwait-flagged Al-Salmi, is the latest in a series of attacks on commercial shipping using missiles and drone strikes in the Gulf since U.S. and Israeli forces hit Iran on February 28.
The conflict, now a month old, has expanded across the Middle East, causing heavy casualties, disrupting energy flows, and raising fears of a global economic downturn. Oil prices briefly surged again following the attack on the tanker, which has a capacity of roughly 2 million barrels valued at over $200 million. Its owner, Kuwait Petroleum Corp, said the strike occurred early Tuesday, igniting a fire and damaging the hull, though no injuries were reported. Dubai authorities later confirmed the blaze had been contained after what they described as a drone strike.
Rising oil and fuel costs are beginning to strain U.S. households and pose a political challenge for Trump and Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections, particularly after pledges to cut energy prices and boost domestic production. Gasoline prices in the U.S. climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, according to GasBuddy, as tighter global supply pushed crude above $101 per barrel.
Meanwhile, hostilities show no sign of easing, with concerns mounting over a broader regional war. Iran-aligned Houthi forces have launched missiles and drones at Israel, while Turkey reported intercepting a ballistic missile from Iran that briefly entered its airspace. Israel has carried out strikes on targets in Tehran and Hezbollah-linked sites in Beirut, with explosions reported across parts of the Iranian capital and power outages affecting some districts.
The Israeli military said four of its soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon, where recent incidents have also claimed the lives of UN peacekeepers. Iran’s military stated its latest wave of attacks targeted U.S. bases and Israeli positions across the region.
The U.S. has begun deploying thousands of troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, signaling potential escalation even as diplomatic efforts continue. The White House said Trump aims to secure a deal with Iran before an April 6 deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments.
While U.S. officials say talks are progressing, Iran has dismissed proposed terms as unrealistic, insisting it is focused on defense amid ongoing attacks. Trump reiterated both optimism for a deal and a renewed threat to destroy Iran’s energy facilities if no agreement is reached, though reports suggest he may be open to ending military operations even if the strait remains partially closed.
Oil prices later eased and equities recovered on hopes of de-escalation. Still, the administration is weighing further steps, including seeking financial contributions from Arab allies, as it requests an additional $200 billion in war funding—an effort likely to face resistance in Congress.
Oil and war fears dominate markets heading into an uncertain Q2.
Financial markets enter the second quarter on shaky ground, highly sensitive to war-related headlines. This environment raises the risk of deeper equity declines, while the sharp selloff in bonds may start to attract buyers.
Even if the conflict eases soon, investors believe lasting damage to Middle East energy infrastructure and persistently high oil prices will weigh on growth and keep inflation elevated. That combination could further pressure stocks, though if growth fears begin to outweigh inflation concerns, bonds may stage a recovery.
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, noted that uncertainty dominates: it’s hard for investors to see beyond the constant flow of geopolitical news. While diversification into international equities remains appealing, she emphasized that U.S. exposure still plays an important role.
The Middle East conflict caps a volatile first quarter also shaped by U.S. geopolitical moves and rapid AI-driven disruption. Oil has been the standout performer, surging about 90% to above $100 a barrel, which has shaken bond markets and pushed expectations for higher interest rates.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters see oil ranging from $100 to $190 if supply disruptions persist, with an average forecast around $134. Meanwhile, prediction platform Polymarket assigns roughly a one-third chance of the war ending by mid-May and a 60% likelihood by late June.
Echoing the inflation surge of 2022, short-term borrowing costs in countries like Britain and Italy have jumped sharply, with notable moves also seen in U.S., German, and Japanese bonds. According to Societe Generale strategist Manish Kabra, the key factors for markets are how long the oil shock lasts and how central banks respond.
Since the war began, expectations for U.S. rate cuts this year have largely disappeared. In Europe and the UK, investors now anticipate rate hikes instead of easing, while hopes for monetary loosening in emerging markets have faded.
Kabra highlighted the upcoming U.S. Memorial Day weekend as a potential pressure point, as rising travel demand could intensify public and political focus on energy prices. Reflecting this backdrop, he has increased exposure to commodities in portfolios.
Bond markets have taken a hit, with yields rising sharply, but some investors see value emerging. Amundi, for instance, has added short-term eurozone government bonds and maintained positions in U.S. Treasuries, expecting central banks to look past short-term inflation spikes once the crisis stabilizes.
Similarly, Russell Investments sees bonds as more attractive than a few months ago and expects the dollar’s recent strength—up over 2% in March—to fade over time. Before the conflict, investors had been rotating away from U.S. assets, a trend that could resume if tensions ease.
Gold has slipped about 4% in March, as investors sell profitable positions to offset losses elsewhere, despite its usual role as an inflation hedge.
Equities, while initially resilient thanks to strong earnings and the tech sector, are now under pressure. The S&P 500 and Europe’s STOXX 600 have fallen roughly 9–10% from recent highs, and Japan’s Nikkei has dropped nearly 13% from its February peak.
Zurich Insurance strategist Guy Miller said his firm has shifted to an underweight position in equities as the economic outlook deteriorates. Data already points to weakening momentum, with U.S. consumer sentiment declining, German investor confidence dropping sharply, and business activity indicators hitting multi-month lows.
Although the U.S. benefits from a relatively strong economy and its status as an energy exporter, it is not immune. Prolonged high energy prices would still weigh on growth. The OECD has already warned that the global economy has been knocked off a stronger growth trajectory.
Miller concluded that this conflict differs from recent geopolitical shocks, which had limited market impact—this time, the implications for earnings, margins, and valuations are far more significant.
The U.S. dollar is on track for its strongest monthly performance since July, solidifying its position as the dominant safe-haven asset as escalating conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices higher and fuels concerns about a global economic slowdown.
The greenback extended its broad rally overnight, with the notable exception of the Japanese yen, where renewed intervention warnings from Tokyo have made traders cautious about pushing the currency much beyond the 160-per-dollar level.
After hitting its weakest level since July 2024 a day earlier, the yen traded at 159.81 in Tuesday’s Asian session, marking a roughly 2.4% monthly decline, largely due to Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy. It showed little reaction to data indicating a slight easing in Tokyo inflation.
Meanwhile, the euro dropped 0.3% overnight and is set for a monthly loss of around 3%, while both the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell to multi-month lows. The Australian dollar, which had remained relatively resilient for most of the month, has recently come under pressure as market concerns shift from inflation toward slowing global growth. It slipped to a two-month low of $0.6834 before stabilizing slightly, while the New Zealand dollar hit a four-month low near $0.5716.
Elsewhere, South Korea’s won weakened to its lowest level since 2009. The U.S. dollar index climbed to 100.61 on Monday—its highest since last May—and is up 2.9% in March, marking its sharpest monthly gain since July.
Geopolitical tensions intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. could target Iran’s energy infrastructure if Tehran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, following Iran’s dismissal of U.S. peace proposals and continued missile strikes on Israel. Reports of an Iranian attack on a Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai further lifted oil prices.
According to ING’s global head of markets, Chris Turner, the dollar is unlikely to give up its gains without clear signs of de-escalation from Iran.
On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a cautious stance, downplaying the likelihood of near-term rate hikes and emphasizing a wait-and-see approach as inflation expectations remain stable in the longer term. Although this pushed short-term bond yields lower and reduced expectations for rate hikes this year, it did little to weaken the dollar, which continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty.
Other traditional safe havens have underperformed since the conflict began. Bonds and gold have struggled, while the yen has remained weak and the Swiss franc has been pressured by signals from the Swiss National Bank that it may act to curb currency strength. The dollar has gained nearly 4% against the franc this month, reaching around 0.80 francs.
Looking ahead, investors are watching for upcoming European inflation data and China’s PMI figures later in the session.
The coming week will be driven by key U.S. data releases, including the jobs report and retail sales figures, alongside ongoing developments in the Iran conflict.
ExxonMobil is highlighted as a momentum opportunity, supported by increased oil price volatility stemming from Middle East supply risks.
In contrast, Nike is seen as a stock to avoid ahead of its earnings release, with concerns over potentially weak results and cautious forward guidance.
U.S. equities fell sharply in a broad-based selloff on Friday, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite slipping into correction territory as investors grew concerned about the global economic fallout from the war in Iran.
The S&P 500 extended its losing streak to a fifth consecutive week, falling 2.1%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.9%.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on the upcoming U.S. employment report, a key economic release expected to show around 56,000 job additions and an unemployment rate of 4.4%, alongside ongoing monitoring of the second month of the Iran conflict. The payrolls data is scheduled for April 3, when U.S. markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.
Retail sales for February and manufacturing activity data are also scheduled for release next week.
On Monday, Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at Harvard University, with his remarks likely to influence market sentiment.
On the corporate side, Nike is set to report earnings on Tuesday, while the majority of first-quarter results will come later in the earnings season.
Overall, the focus remains on the week ahead—Monday, March 30 to Friday, April 3—as investors position for key macro data, central bank commentary, and early corporate earnings, along with one stock expected to outperform and another at risk of further downside.
Buy Idea: ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil emerges as the top pick to buy this week, supported by a notable surge in global oil prices as markets react to heightened fears of supply disruptions tied to the ongoing U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran. Since the outbreak of the war, crude benchmarks have climbed sharply amid growing concern that the turmoil could choke flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has surged more than 70% year-to-date, trading near $100 per barrel, while Brent crude futures have climbed above $105 and briefly approached $110 during intraday trading on Friday.
Despite periodic pullbacks and speculation around potential ceasefires, geopolitical risk premiums remain elevated, helping to sustain higher energy prices in the near term.
ExxonMobil is well positioned to benefit from this environment, given its large upstream portfolio, including major production assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana. As a result, each $10 increase in crude prices could add billions of dollars in incremental annual cash flow.
Notably, XOM is trading close to its 52-week high of $171.23. While volatility has increased, the stock continues to demonstrate strong resilience, reflected in its relatively low 1-year beta of 0.27, suggesting limited sensitivity to broader market swings even amid turbulence.
This stability reinforces ExxonMobil’s appeal as a buy or add at current levels, particularly as geopolitical tensions continue to support higher crude prices.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Around current levels (~$171.00)
Exit Target: $180.00 (approx. +5.3%)
Stop-Loss: $165.60 (approx. -3.5%)
Stock to Offload: Nike
Nike, by contrast, is the stock to avoid or sell this week, as it heads into its upcoming earnings release facing multiple challenges. The sportswear giant is scheduled to report fiscal Q3 results on Tuesday at 4:15 PM ET after the market close, and expectations remain weak.
Despite its globally recognized brand, Nike has been under pressure in recent quarters due to weakening consumer demand, rising competitive pressure, and a series of strategic setbacks.
Options markets are currently pricing in an earnings-related move of roughly ±9%, suggesting significant volatility ahead, with downside risk that could drive the stock toward multi-year lows.
Nike is projected to report a 45% year-over-year decline in adjusted EPS to $0.30, with revenue expected to slip 1% to around $11.2 billion. The weaker outlook reflects soft demand in key regions—especially China—along with inventory overhang, higher tariff pressures, and intensifying competition.
Any disappointing forward guidance could further dampen investor sentiment, as the market increasingly questions when Nike’s turnaround strategy under new leadership and restructuring efforts will begin to deliver sustained growth.
Meanwhile, competitors such as On, Hoka, and Alo Yoga continue to take share in both performance and lifestyle segments, gradually eroding Nike’s dominance. At the same time, Nike’s premium pricing strategy is becoming more challenging in an increasingly value-sensitive consumer environment.
Nike (NKE) is currently trading just above its 52-week low at around $51.20, extending a persistent downtrend marked by a 16.8% decline over the past month.
Heading into a key earnings release, management has already flagged continued headwinds, and the combination of elevated valuation concerns and weak price momentum suggests the stock may remain under pressure.
Although the RSI indicates oversold conditions from a technical standpoint, the absence of clear positive catalysts raises the risk that attempting to “buy the dip” could be premature.
GBP/USD edges up after four consecutive days of declines, trading near 1.3270 during Monday’s Asian session. However, the daily chart still points to a sustained bearish outlook, with the pair continuing to move within a descending channel pattern.
GBP/USD Market Technical Outlook
On the daily timeframe, GBP/USD retains a mildly bearish bias as price remains below a flattening 100-day exponential moving average and trades under the Bollinger Band midpoint, keeping action confined to the lower half of the volatility range. The RSI near 45 suggests fading bullish momentum rather than strong selling pressure, indicating sellers still have a slight advantage while pullbacks remain orderly.
Key support is seen around the recent low at 1.3230, which previously aligned with the lower Bollinger Band; a break below this level would likely expose further downside toward 1.3160. On the upside, resistance is located at 1.3430, where the 100-day EMA and Bollinger midline converge, and a sustained daily close above this zone would be needed to ease bearish pressure and shift focus toward 1.3560.
Fundamental Analysis
A mixed fundamental backdrop calls for caution before taking strong directional positions.
Market reports indicate ongoing diplomatic efforts to establish a one-month ceasefire framework aimed at enabling US–Iran negotiations on ending the conflict. This follows President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure by five days, raising hopes for potential de-escalation in the Middle East. However, tensions remain elevated as hostilities continue, with Israel maintaining strikes on Iran and the US deploying additional forces, including elements of the 82nd Airborne Division, to the region.
At the same time, Iran has launched fresh missile attacks on Israel, while Gulf states report ongoing interceptions of drones and missiles amid escalating fighting across Lebanon and Iraq. These developments keep geopolitical risk elevated and support crude oil prices, adding to inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may remain hawkish. Markets have largely priced out further Fed rate cuts and are increasingly factoring in the possibility of a rate hike later this year, which supports the US dollar and limits upside potential for GBP/USD.
On the UK side, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed headline CPI holding at 3.0% year-on-year in February, in line with expectations. However, core inflation surprised to the upside, rising to 3.2% from 3.1% previously. Combined with a hawkish Bank of England (BoE) outlook—hinting at possible rate hikes as early as April—this provides some underlying support for the British pound and helps cushion downside pressure on GBP/USD.
EUR/USD trades sideways near a one-week low and appears prone to further downside.
Rising geopolitical tensions continue to support the US dollar, likely limiting any upside in the pair.
The technical outlook also leans bearish, reinforcing expectations for deeper declines.
EUR/USD edges slightly higher after revisiting a one-week low earlier Monday, holding near the key 1.1500 level in the Asian session. However, gains appear limited as escalating geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for the safe-haven US dollar, weighing on the pair.
Reports indicate the Pentagon may be gearing up for prolonged ground operations in Iran, while the involvement of Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen adds to fears of a broader Middle East conflict. This keeps investor sentiment fragile. At the same time, rising energy prices are stoking inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve, further underpinning the USD and capping EUR/USD upside.
Technically, the short-term outlook remains slightly bearish, with prices staying below the flat 200-hour EMA near 1.1550. Momentum indicators show indecision, as MACD hovers around neutral levels and RSI sits near 43, indicating a mild seller advantage without strong downside momentum.
On the upside, resistance is seen at 1.1535, followed by 1.1550. A sustained break above this zone could shift sentiment and pave the way toward 1.1580. On the downside, support lies at 1.1490, with further weakness exposing 1.1475. A decisive break below this level would reinforce bearish pressure and open the path toward 1.1450.
The Nasdaq 100 attempted to rally early in the week but ultimately tumbled as market fear intensified. With U.S. interest rates continuing to rise, the index has now broken below the key 23,800 level.
We are also trading below the 50-week EMA, and quite frankly, this is a market being driven almost entirely by the latest headlines out of Washington or Tehran, as they are causing sharp swings in interest rate expectations. As rates climb, they put significant pressure on technology stocks—and that dynamic is clearly playing out now.
USD/MXN
The U.S. dollar initially declined against the Mexican peso but has now formed a hammer pattern for the third consecutive week. This suggests the peso may start to weaken, and with U.S. interest rates rising, the negative swap cost associated with buying this pair becomes less of a burden.
On the upside, the 50-week EMA is near the 18.29 level, with the 18.50 area as the next likely target. If the pair pulls back from here, pay close attention to next week’s candlestick formation, as it would take significant downside pressure on the U.S. dollar to shift the trend. While the interest rate differential makes me hesitant to buy the dollar against the peso, the market still appears to be attempting a rally.
GBP/JPY
The British pound edged higher against the Japanese yen this week, and the key level to watch now is 214 yen, which has acted as a significant barrier. A break above this level would likely open the door for further upside.
Short-term pullbacks should continue to present buying opportunities, but there is always the risk of intervention from the Bank of Japan. That said, it’s likely a challenging task for the central bank to prevent the yen from weakening significantly. The ongoing interest rate differential will keep driving yen-denominated pairs higher, with the British pound standing out as a key beneficiary.
EUR/USD
The euro has been quite volatile this week, ultimately forming something resembling a shooting star. We remain within the same range that’s held for some time, suggesting little has fundamentally changed. However, a breakdown below the 1.14 level could trigger a sharp strengthening in the U.S. dollar.
In that scenario, you’d likely look to buy the U.S. dollar against most currencies—not just the euro—since this pair often acts as a broader signal for how the greenback performs globally. On the other hand, if we break to the upside and clear this past week’s highs, that would be broadly dollar-negative and could pave the way for a move toward the 1.18 level.
Gold (Xau/Usd)
Gold prices dropped sharply over the week but staged a solid recovery. A large weekly hammer is beginning to form, though a break above $4,600 is needed to confirm strong momentum. While there are many factors supporting further gains, rising U.S. interest rates remain a key headwind.
Rising interest rates remain a significant headwind, weighing on gold despite ongoing geopolitical tensions that could otherwise push prices higher. A drop below the $4,000 level would be severely bearish, but for now, the market appears to be attempting a rebound.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin has been a bit weak over the week, but it’s still holding within the same range. Given the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, that actually counts as relatively strong performance. The price is currently hovering around the 200-week EMA, a key long-term support level.
The $72,000 level continues to act as resistance, while $60,000 below remains a solid support zone. Overall, the market is quite choppy, but it appears to be in the process of building a base for a potential longer-term move.
Natural Gas
Natural gas declined over the week but has shown a modest rebound. However, it’s likely a market retail traders should avoid for now, as demand is dropping sharply.
While Europe may continue to face supply challenges, this is seasonally a weak period for natural gas demand. Many retail traders also overlook that they are trading a U.S.-centric contract. With spring approaching, the typical strategy is to sell into rallies once signs of exhaustion appear.
USD/CHF
The U.S. dollar has gained solid ground against the Swiss franc and is now approaching the key 0.80 level. A breakout above that point could trigger a stronger upward move, but for now, such a scenario seems unlikely.
In this environment, the outlook remains bullish, with interest rate differentials continuing to support further upside. The Swiss central bank also provides a form of downside protection, having signaled it may intervene if the franc strengthens excessively. This creates a favorable “buy on dips” setup, with the added benefit of earning daily swap.
Gold prices edged up slightly as attention remains on the escalating Iran conflict.
Gold edged higher in Asian trading on Monday, recovering modestly after a volatile week, as investors continued to watch the risk of escalation in the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran.
Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,509.51 an ounce, with futures rising similarly to $4,537.40. Prices had swung sharply last week, dropping to around $4,000 before rebounding close to $4,500 by Friday.
Other precious metals were mixed, with silver slipping 0.9% while platinum advanced 1.8%.
Analysts at OCBC said the recent rebound in gold appears largely technical, following a steep decline of about 20% since the conflict began. While bearish pressure is easing and momentum indicators are improving, they cautioned that the recovery may struggle to hold unless prices break above key resistance levels at $4,624, $4,670, and $4,850 per ounce.
They also warned that persistently high energy prices could keep inflation elevated, potentially pushing Treasury yields higher and creating a less favorable environment for gold in the near term.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remained high after Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched attacks on Israel over the weekend, raising fears of a broader conflict. Iran signaled readiness for a possible U.S. ground invasion, amid reports that Washington is deploying additional troops to the Middle East.
U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing and a deal could be near, though he provided no clear timeline and warned that further strikes on Tehran remain possible. He also recently extended a deadline for potential attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure into early April.
Oil prices jumped above $115 per barrel after Yemen’s Houthi forces launched an attack on Israel.
Oil prices surged in early Monday trading after Yemen’s Houthi group launched attacks on Israel, raising fears of a wider Middle East conflict.
Brent crude jumped 2.2% to $115.08 a barrel, after briefly spiking as high as $116.43.
The Iran-backed Houthis said they had fired multiple missiles at Israel and warned of further strikes, heightening concerns about escalation—especially given their ability to target vessels in the Red Sea.
Tensions remained elevated as Israeli forces struck targets in Tehran, while the U.S. deployed 3,500 troops to the region aboard the USS Tripoli. Iran also signaled readiness for a potential U.S. ground operation.
Oil prices have rallied sharply in March, with Brent up nearly 60%, driven by severe supply disruptions. Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a route carrying about 20% of global oil supply—has intensified market fears.
While Pakistan has offered to host talks between Washington and Tehran following a U.S. ceasefire proposal, Iran has largely rejected direct negotiations and accused the U.S. of preparing for a ground invasion.
Donald Trump said the United States and Iran have been engaging both directly and through intermediaries, describing Iran’s new leadership as “very reasonable,” even as additional U.S. troops deployed to the region and Tehran warned it would not accept humiliation.
His comments came after Pakistan announced it was preparing to host potential talks between Washington and Tehran aimed at ending the month-long conflict. Trump expressed confidence a deal could be reached, though he acknowledged uncertainty.
He also suggested that recent strikes, including one that killed Ali Khamenei, had effectively resulted in regime change, noting that the new leadership appears more pragmatic.
The conflict, which began with an Israeli strike on February 28, has spread across the Middle East, causing heavy casualties, disrupting global energy supplies, and weighing on the world economy.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said regional discussions had focused on ending the war and possibly hosting U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad, though it remains unclear if both sides will attend.
Meanwhile, Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf accused the U.S. of signaling negotiations while preparing for a potential ground invasion, warning that Iran would resist any attempt at forced submission.
The Pentagon has sent thousands of additional troops to the region, giving Washington the option of launching a ground offensive, while Israel has indicated it will continue strikes against Iranian military targets regardless of diplomatic efforts.
Recent Israeli airstrikes have targeted missile facilities and infrastructure across Iran, while Iranian retaliation has struck sites in Israel. The conflict has also disrupted key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices sharply higher and rattling global markets.
As tensions escalate, the arrival of more U.S. forces and the possibility of broader regional involvement—including attacks linked to Yemen’s Houthi forces—raise the risk of a prolonged and wider war.
The U.S. dollar rose on Friday, positioning itself for its strongest monthly performance since July, as investors turned to the currency as a safe haven amid uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict.
By 17:28 ET (21:28 GMT), the U.S. Dollar Index—which measures the greenback against six major currencies—had increased by 0.3% to 100.18.
The U.S. dollar is on track for its strongest monthly performance since July 2025.
The U.S. dollar is on track for its strongest monthly gain since July 2025, with the Dollar Index rising 2.6% in March—its biggest increase since a 3.2% climb last July.
This strength has been driven by growing safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, along with expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer due to inflation pressures from rising energy prices. Markets have largely abandoned bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, and are even starting to price in potential rate hikes.
At the same time, investors have been selling off bonds, pushing U.S. Treasury yields sharply higher, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since July.
According to Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman, while safe-haven flows have played a role, the dollar’s strength is more fundamentally driven—particularly by the U.S.’s lower reliance on imported oil compared to other regions. He noted that unlike past periods of uncertainty, the current environment may have a less severe impact on U.S. incomes, helping support the dollar despite global economic disruptions.
Trump pushed back a critical deadline, while Iran reported that its infrastructure had been struck.
Risk assets fell sharply on Friday as tensions in the Middle East intensified, while oil prices surged past $110 per barrel. Although President Donald Trump extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the move did little to reassure markets.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that Israeli strikes had already hit key infrastructure, including steel plants, a power station, and civilian nuclear facilities, calling the attacks inconsistent with Trump’s extended timeline.
Earlier, Trump had warned Iran to unblock the strategic waterway—through which about 20% of global oil supply passes—or face U.S. strikes on its energy infrastructure. He later delayed potential action until Friday following what he described as “very strong” talks with Iran. However, Tehran has denied that any negotiations with Washington are taking place.
The euro and British pound weakened, while the yen surged to 160 against the dollar.
The euro and British pound weakened against the U.S. dollar, with EUR/USD falling 0.2% to 1.1510 and GBP/USD dropping 0.5% to 1.3259, as Europe continues to face energy supply disruptions—especially in natural gas—linked to the Iran conflict.
G7 diplomats met in France, where U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted the Strait of Hormuz as a key issue, warning that any attempt by Iran to impose tolls on the passage would be unacceptable.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen slid further, with USD/JPY rising 0.4% to 160.25. Reports suggest that breaching the 160 level could prompt intervention by Japanese authorities. The Australian dollar, often seen as a risk-sensitive currency, remained broadly stable after earlier falling to a two-month low.
Analysts at MUFG expect the U.S.–Iran conflict to be relatively short-lived, with geopolitical risk premiums eventually easing. However, they caution that a prolonged conflict could keep energy prices elevated, putting additional pressure on currencies in Asia that rely heavily on energy imports—particularly the South Korean won and the Japanese yen.
U.S. stocks are facing a challenging mix of shrinking valuation multiples and still-strong corporate fundamentals as markets head into the Q1 2026 earnings season.
According to Goldman Sachs’ latest “Weekly Kickstart” report, the S&P 500 has fallen about 9% from its January peak, pressured by rising oil prices, higher interest rates, and ongoing instability linked to the Iran conflict. Over the past month, the index’s P/E ratio has dropped from 21x to 19x, even as analysts have unexpectedly increased 2026 EPS forecasts by 3%.
From a sentiment standpoint, positioning has weakened sharply, with Goldman’s U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator falling to -0.9—its lowest level since August 2025. While historically such low readings can precede stronger returns, analysts caution that sentiment alone may not be enough to drive a rebound without clearer improvements in underlying fundamentals. Continued escalation in the Middle East could still pose downside risks to growth expectations.
Despite macro pressures, corporate fundamentals remain relatively solid. Goldman still expects S&P 500 earnings to grow 12% in 2026, assuming disruptions do not worsen significantly. The upcoming earnings season will be key in testing this outlook, particularly whether companies can sustain margins amid elevated energy costs and shifting trade dynamics.
Looking ahead, markets are closely watching how the Federal Reserve responds to stagflationary pressures. While earnings growth persists, high oil prices and sticky inflation complicate the case for rate cuts. Investors are increasingly leaning toward high-quality companies with strong balance sheets that can endure a prolonged high-rate environment. Ultimately, management guidance in the coming earnings reports will play a decisive role in determining whether the S&P 500 can stabilize at current levels.
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