S&P 500 Extends Gains as Another Trade Deal Fuels Market Rally

It feels as though markets are trapped on a never-ending carousel. Over the past two months, investors have repeatedly been hit with headlines suggesting that the US and Iran are nearing another agreement to end hostilities. What makes the situation unusual is that the proposed deal is reportedly aimed at extending a two-week ceasefire that began on April 8 and has already lasted nearly 50 days by an additional 60 days. Why a fresh agreement is required for that remains somewhat unclear.

Nevertheless, renewed optimism surrounding a potential deal once again pushed the S&P 500 higher, with the index gaining 58 basis points, while the VIX slipped below 16. Frankly, the constant cycle of ceasefire headlines is even starting to disrupt my Treasury settlement calendar analysis. By the close, the index had risen roughly 10 basis points more than its average positive-day gain of 48 basis points.

Bitcoin traded largely in line with expectations, although it briefly dropped around 2% near midday and remains down roughly 1% on the session. While I remain skeptical about Bitcoin’s intrinsic value, it continues to serve as a useful barometer of overall liquidity conditions in the market. For that reason alone, it deserves close attention.

The liquidity-sensitive private equity ETF PSP also ended the session in negative territory, reinforcing the view that some of the market’s most liquidity-dependent segments continue to face pressure even as the broader equity market advances.

That is all for today. The relentless news cycle has become exhausting, and frankly, I still have plenty of work to wrap up before the end of the month.