- Bitcoin’s recovery pauses while the $80,000 support level remains intact, as optimism surrounding a final US-Iran peace deal begins to fade.
- Market participants are also staying cautious ahead of key US economic data releases, particularly Tuesday’s CPI report.
- Meanwhile, the US Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to conduct its markup hearing on the Clarity Act this Thursday.
- On the supply side, roughly $159 million worth of token unlocks — led by Solana’s $40 million and Pump.fun’s $21 million — may add further volatility to the crypto market.
The cryptocurrency market started the week on a subdued note, with Bitcoin (BTC) finding it difficult to maintain support above $80,000 as optimism over a final US-Iran peace agreement weakened due to growing complications in the negotiations.
Altcoins also showed signs of fading momentum, with Ethereum (ETH) retreating from its weekly peak of $2,375, while Ripple (XRP) revisited support around $1.45 after facing rejection near the $1.50 resistance zone.
Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal
US President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the conflict, calling it “totally unacceptable.” The proposal, reportedly delivered to the White House through Pakistani mediators, was presented as a counteroffer to a one-page US memorandum outlining a phased framework for ending the war — a conflict that has severely disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important shipping routes.
Under the proposal, Iran demanded the complete removal of US sanctions, an immediate end to the military blockade around the Strait, and concessions related to its nuclear program, including a shorter moratorium on uranium enrichment. Tehran also sought sovereignty rights over the Strait of Hormuz, including authority to coordinate maritime traffic passing through the route.
Trump has continued to maintain a firm stance on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, insisting that the country’s nuclear program must be fully dismantled.
Meanwhile, global markets remain tense as hopes for a lasting peace agreement continue to weaken amid the fragile diplomatic environment. Oil prices also remain elevated, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude holding near the $95.00 level.
Caution ahead of US macroeconomic data
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday. The CPI is the US’s main inflation gauge, tracking changes in the average prices consumers pay for goods and services such as food, housing, and transportation over time.
For investors, CPI data plays a critical role in shaping expectations for interest rates. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could further reduce hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, while softer inflation data may strengthen the bullish outlook for risk assets like Bitcoin, as markets anticipate a more accommodative monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve.
March inflation data came in above expectations, with headline CPI rising to 3.3% year-over-year, compared to 2.4% in February. Core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — increased to 2.6% in March from 2.5% previously.
Markets are now forecasting April CPI to climb further to 3.7% YoY, while Core CPI is expected to edge up to 2.7%.
Investors will also closely monitor Wednesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) release, which measures inflation from the producer side by tracking changes in the prices businesses receive for goods and services.
Clarity Act advances to US Senate markup hearing
The Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold its long-awaited markup hearing for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 — commonly known as the Clarity Act — on Thursday.
The legislation had remained largely stalled after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced in January that the exchange was withdrawing its support over concerns related to stablecoin yield provisions and other aspects of the bill.
However, momentum appears to have returned following the release of a compromise draft by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks. The revised text reportedly proposes banning crypto firms from offering yield on static stablecoin reserve holdings, while still permitting rewards tied to stablecoin assets actively used in certain activities. The compromise helped move the legislation forward to the next stage of the process.
At the same time, banking industry groups indicated that several concerns with the compromise proposal remain unresolved. According to a report from CoinDesk, industry representatives said they would continue providing feedback in an effort to reach a framework that supports digital asset innovation while also strengthening consumer protections.
Large token unlocks could fuel market volatility
Several cryptocurrency projects are set to unlock additional token supply into the market this week, potentially increasing short-term volatility. The schedule began on Monday with a notable $5 million unlock from Based.
According to data from DefiLlama, Tuesday’s unlocks are expected to be significantly larger, led by Solana with roughly $40 million in tokens entering circulation, followed by Pump.fun at around $21 million and Aptos with nearly $13 million.
Additional sizable unlocks later in the week include approximately $9 million from Sei on Thursday, around $18 million from Connex on Friday, and roughly $13 million from Arbitrum on Saturday.
Token unlocks often increase selling pressure as newly released assets become available for trading, which can lead to heightened price swings, particularly during periods of cautious market sentiment.
Technical outlook: Bitcoin rally loses momentum as support remains intact
Bitcoin is trading around $81,246, maintaining a cautious tone as price action remains below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), as well as the weekly SuperTrend indicator.
Despite the near-term weakness, the 200-week EMA near $68,125 continues to support the broader bullish structure. Momentum indicators also point to consolidation rather than a sharp bearish reversal.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in positive territory, signaling that bullish momentum has not completely faded. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe is hovering near the neutral 50 level, indicating that momentum is stabilizing instead of showing a decisive move higher at this stage.
On the upside, the first major resistance level appears near the 100-week EMA at $82,381, while the 50-week EMA around $85,634 strengthens a heavy supply zone overhead. A stronger bullish recovery would likely require a weekly close above the SuperTrend resistance at $91,753.
On the downside, the 200-week EMA near $68,125 remains the key structural support level for Bitcoin’s broader trend. A sustained move below this area would significantly weaken the medium-term technical outlook.
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