Tag: Crypto trading

Bitcoin futures open interest climbed 4.2% to 645,410 BTC, indicating renewed market positioning as prices rebounded. However, Bitcoin faces a significant resistance zone between $86,500 and $87,500, where concentrated sell orders coincide with major leveraged liquidation levels. Meanwhile, Strategy may encounter additional selling pressure if MSCI removes the company from its indexes under new rules scheduled to take effect on November 11.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed signs of a rebound on Wednesday as derivatives market positioning improved. However, resistance between $86,500 and $87,500 could restrict further upside, with substantial sell orders and leveraged liquidation clusters potentially creating obstacles for bullish momentum.

Bitcoin Derivatives Signal Renewed Market Activity

According to a Wednesday report from crypto exchange Bitfinex, Bitcoin maintained support near the lower boundary of its recent trading range despite repeated downward pressure. Buying activity during price dips helped sustain BTC within the $81,724–$83,470 range.

Futures open interest across major exchanges increased by 4.2% to 645,410 BTC on October 20, recovering from the October 12 low. This rise suggests that traders have begun rebuilding positions as Bitcoin prices recover. Meanwhile, funding rates returned to annualized levels of 7%–9% during peak trading sessions, indicating a moderate preference for leveraged long positions.

Options market data suggests that Bitcoin could remain within a relatively narrow trading range in the near term. Bitfinex reported that Friday’s options expiry carries $1.23 billion in notional open interest, with the maximum pain price near $82,000.

The monthly expiry on October 30 is considerably larger, with $11.2 billion in notional open interest. Its implied one-standard-deviation trading range extends from $78,300 to $87,100, highlighting the potential boundaries of near-term price movements.

$87K Resistance Becomes a Critical Liquidity Zone

Despite improving derivatives positioning, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode identified substantial sell orders between $86,500 and $87,500, alongside liquidation clusters around $85,000 and $87,000.

Glassnode noted that a move toward $87,000 could accelerate if rising prices force short sellers to close their positions. However, the resulting upward momentum could encounter significant selling pressure as Bitcoin approaches the same level, where sell orders are concentrated.

The firm also observed that realized profits had slowed to approximately half the pace recorded during the week of September’s market peak, suggesting that profit-taking pressure had eased. Selling activity among investors who acquired Bitcoin one to two years ago also fell to less than one-third of its daily level in early October.

According to Glassnode, a daily close above $86,700 would restore the average position of investors who purchased Bitcoin six to twelve months ago to profitability while clearing the nearest overhead supply zone. Such a breakout could improve the market’s short-term outlook.

Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded renewed inflows of $526 million on Monday, their largest single-day intake since September 22. These inflows helped return weekly ETF flows to positive territory, although overall trading volume remained subdued.

Glassnode emphasized that sustained inflows accompanied by rising trading volume would provide stronger evidence that Bitcoin demand is expanding beyond a single day’s activity.

MSCI Decision Creates Uncertainty for Strategy

The report also highlighted a potential risk for Strategy ahead of MSCI’s November 11 announcement of its final list of companies affected by new index rules targeting non-operating businesses.

Strategy was included in MSCI’s preliminary assessment, raising the possibility that the company could be removed from certain indexes. Such a decision could trigger selling pressure on its shares as index-tracking funds adjust their holdings.

This is not the first time Strategy has faced potential exclusion from MSCI indexes. In October 2025, MSCI proposed removing companies whose digital asset holdings represented at least 50% of their total assets, placing Strategy at risk because of its substantial Bitcoin holdings. However, the index provider stepped back from immediate exclusion in January.

The upcoming decision therefore remains an important consideration for Strategy investors, as any change to its index eligibility could affect institutional investment flows and share-price performance.

• Bitcoin recovers above $84,000, suggesting a resilient technical outlook despite continued ETF-related outflows.
• Ethereum strengthens its neutral-to-bullish outlook by reclaiming the key $2,500 support level, even as investment capital continues to flow out.
• XRP approaches a potential breakout from a key supply zone, with the 50-day and 100-day EMAs defining the critical resistance range.

Cryptocurrency markets are staging a broad recovery on Tuesday, with Bitcoin (BTC) leading the rebound by climbing above $84,000 ahead of Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) are also showing signs of stabilization, supported by improving market sentiment. ETH has regained the $2,500 level, while XRP is approaching the critical $1.40 resistance zone.

Institutional Demand Remains Weak Ahead of US CPI

Investors are becoming more cautious ahead of the upcoming US inflation report, prompting a reassessment of risk exposure across financial markets. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index declined to 57 on Tuesday from 69 a day earlier, remaining in the Greed zone but reflecting a cooling appetite for digital assets.

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $65 million in net outflows on Monday, reversing the $21 million in inflows reported last Friday. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs also experienced approximately $681 million in cumulative outflows last week, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on institutional demand.

The CPI report will be closely watched as the Federal Reserve evaluates inflation trends and determines its monetary policy direction. A softer-than-expected reading could support expectations of stable interest rates within the 3.50%–4.00% range in October. However, market participants are increasingly anticipating at least one additional rate hike before the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

WeFi.co Co-founder and Group CEO Maksym Sakharov noted that weaker inflation could improve expectations for more accommodative financial conditions. He emphasized that market reactions will depend not only on the headline inflation figure but also on how the data influences expectations for borrowing costs and capital availability.

Ethereum investment products are also experiencing sustained selling pressure. Spot ETH ETFs recorded $85 million in outflows on Monday, extending their negative streak to ten consecutive days. Total outflows last week reached $542 million through Friday, potentially limiting Ethereum’s recovery toward resistance levels at $2,600 and $2,800.

Meanwhile, XRP investment products have seen subdued activity for two consecutive days. Their latest reported inflows amounted to $8 million last Thursday, suggesting investors are reassessing their exposure amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Nevertheless, cumulative inflows remain positive at $1.8 billion, while net assets under management stand at approximately $1.55 billion.

Sakharov added that continued uncertainty surrounding monetary policy could make macroeconomic expectations a more significant driver of short-term cryptocurrency prices than sector-specific developments.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Reclaims $84,000

Bitcoin has rebounded above $84,000 after retreating to approximately $81,700 on Monday, as buyers attempt to regain control of the short-term trend. The technical outlook remains constructive, with BTC trading above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80,276 and the SuperTrend indicator at $79,664.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 54, indicating mildly positive momentum without entering overbought territory. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, suggesting that bullish momentum has yet to strengthen decisively.

On the downside, the $84,000 area represents an important near-term reference level, followed by support at the 50-day EMA of $80,276. Additional support sits around $79,664, where the SuperTrend indicator reinforces the broader demand zone.

If selling pressure intensifies, Bitcoin could retreat toward the 100-day EMA at $76,520, followed by the 200-day EMA at $75,631. Maintaining daily closes above these longer-term averages would help preserve the broader bullish structure.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH Regains the $2,500 Support

Ethereum is trading near $2,532 after recovering from weekly lows around $2,400. The token has moved back above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, suggesting that underlying demand is supporting a cautiously bullish near-term outlook.

Nevertheless, technical indicators point to limited momentum. The Parabolic SAR sits at $2,729, marking a potential resistance level, while the MACD remains negative and the RSI is around 46, indicating that buying pressure is still relatively weak.

Initial support is located near $2,532, followed by the 50-day EMA at $2,503. If ETH comes under renewed selling pressure, the 100-day EMA at $2,353 and the 200-day EMA near $2,306 could provide additional downside support.

A daily close above $2,729 would strengthen the recovery outlook and potentially open the way toward higher resistance levels. Conversely, failure to break above this barrier could leave ETH consolidating above its moving averages, with a possible pullback toward $2,400.

XRP Price Forecast: Bulls Challenge the $1.40 Resistance Zone

XRP is edging toward $1.40 as buyers attempt to reverse the recent bearish trend. Despite the recovery, the short-term outlook remains cautious because the token continues to trade below its 50-day EMA at $1.40 and its 200-day EMA at $1.38, while remaining above the 100-day EMA at $1.34.

Momentum indicators continue to reflect selling pressure. The MACD remains below zero, while the RSI stands near 43, below the neutral midpoint of 50. These signals suggest that the latest price rebound has not yet established a decisive bullish reversal.

The 200-day EMA at $1.38 represents the first resistance level, followed by the 50-day EMA at $1.40. A stronger recovery could encounter additional resistance near $1.55, where the Parabolic SAR indicator is positioned.

On the downside, the 100-day EMA at $1.34 remains a crucial support level. A daily close below this threshold could trigger a deeper correction. However, holding above $1.34 would allow XRP to consolidate while buyers attempt to overcome the resistance cluster around $1.38–$1.40.

Overall, Bitcoin is showing the strongest signs of recovery, while Ethereum is attempting to establish support above $2,500. XRP faces a more challenging technical setup, with the $1.38–$1.40 region remaining a key obstacle to a sustained bullish reversal. The upcoming US CPI report could influence investor risk appetite and determine whether the current rebound develops into a broader recovery across the cryptocurrency market.

• Ripple hovers around $1.40 on Thursday, testing the 200-day EMA support after a 5% decline the previous day.
• Cardano edges lower following a 4% decline the previous day, mounting bearish pressure on the 200-day EMA around $0.2423.
• Solana extends losses after a 3% decline the previous day, raising the risk of further downside.

Major altcoins, including Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL), remain under selling pressure, extending their losses throughout the week. Institutional demand for XRP and SOL is showing signs of weakening, while ADA is also struggling to regain upward momentum. Technical indicators suggest a bearish near-term outlook for all three cryptocurrencies, with further declines possible if key support levels fail to hold.

Institutional Demand for Altcoin ETFs Weakens

Solana is experiencing declining institutional demand as investors continue to withdraw funds from SOL-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to SoSoValue data, these funds recorded $4.80 million in net outflows on Wednesday, bringing cumulative outflows for the week to $17.73 million.

Meanwhile, XRP-focused ETFs reported no net outflows on Wednesday, following $3.14 million in inflows the previous day. However, institutional interest has cooled considerably compared with the $75.59 million in inflows recorded during the final week of September, indicating a slowdown in demand for XRP exposure.

Ripple Faces a Critical Support Test

XRP was trading near $1.4100 on Wednesday, stabilizing after a 5% decline in the previous session. The token is testing a crucial support zone formed by the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), located at $1.4000 and $1.4018, respectively.

A decisive break below this support area could expose XRP to further losses toward the September 16 low of $1.2468, representing a potential decline of approximately 10% from current levels. If selling pressure intensifies, the July 21 high near $1.1646 could emerge as another potential downside target.

Technical indicators are increasingly bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 44, below the neutral 50 threshold. Together, these signals suggest that downward momentum is strengthening.

On the upside, a successful rebound from the 200-day EMA could support a recovery toward the August 22 high of $1.6999.

Cardano Faces Resistance as Bearish Risks Increase

ADA was trading around $0.2521, extending its decline for a third consecutive session. The token continues to face resistance from a descending trendline near $0.2745, which has limited its recovery attempts.

Despite the recent weakness, Cardano’s broader technical structure remains relatively resilient, with the price still above the 50-day EMA at $0.2282 and the 200-day EMA at $0.2424. However, a confirmed break below the 50-day EMA could expose ADA to further losses toward $0.2084, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its move from $0.1385 to $0.3136.

Momentum indicators point to fading bullish strength. The RSI has declined to 56, while the MACD has slipped slightly below its signal line, suggesting that buying pressure is weakening.

On the upside, immediate resistance stands at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $0.2632. A sustained move above this barrier could open the way toward the recent swing high of $0.3136.

Solana Faces Downside Risk Below $100

SOL was trading near $115 on Thursday, showing signs of a short-term correction despite its broader recovery structure. The 50-day EMA at $107.42 and the 200-day EMA around $96.65 remain important support levels for the cryptocurrency.

Momentum is turning increasingly bearish, with the MACD crossing below its signal line and the RSI declining to 51. These developments indicate that buying pressure is weakening and that SOL could face additional selling pressure in the near term.

The first key support lies at the 50-day EMA near $107.42. A break below this level could expose Solana to the psychologically important $100 threshold, followed by stronger structural support around the 200-day EMA at $96.65. Holding above the $107.42–$96.65 support zone would help preserve the broader recovery outlook and potentially encourage renewed dip-buying.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located at $122.94, corresponding to the September 25 high. A sustained breakout above this level could shift attention toward the January 13 high at $148.74, although further buying momentum would be needed to reach that target.

Overall, XRP, ADA, and SOL are showing signs of weakening momentum as institutional demand softens and technical indicators turn increasingly bearish. While key support levels could still trigger a recovery, decisive breaks below these thresholds would increase the risk of further losses across the altcoin market.

• Bitcoin drops below $83,000 as the broader crypto market sell-off deepens amid increasing ETF outflows.
• Ethereum remains under pressure as persistent capital withdrawals and deteriorating technical indicators weigh on its price outlook.
• XRP tests the support zone formed by its 50-day and 200-day EMAs as bearish momentum spreads across the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its decline below $83,000 on Thursday as selling pressure intensified across the cryptocurrency market. Major altcoins followed the downward move, with Ethereum (ETH) falling below $2,600 and XRP testing support around $1.40 as investor demand weakened.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Face Renewed Outflows

Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $487 million in outflows on Wednesday, highlighting a renewed pullback in institutional demand. Despite the withdrawals, market sentiment remained in positive territory, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling to 64 on Thursday from 71 a day earlier, remaining within the Greed zone.

If investor appetite holds up, the market could enter a consolidation phase before attempting another recovery. However, persistent ETF outflows and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions could continue to limit upside momentum.

Ethereum spot ETFs also extended their losing streak to seven consecutive sessions, recording $161 million in outflows on Wednesday. Cumulative flows turned to approximately $413 million in net inflows for the week through Thursday, suggesting that US-listed products could be heading toward a second consecutive week of net outflows. Continued withdrawals would add pressure to ETH and increase the risk of a deeper correction.

Meanwhile, XRP spot ETFs showed subdued activity, with little movement on Wednesday following $3 million in outflows on Tuesday. Weakening demand for XRP-related investment products suggests that the token could remain vulnerable to further downside in the near term.

According to XYO co-founder Markus Levin, strong ETF demand alone may not be enough to sustain Bitcoin’s rally when the US dollar and Treasury yields are moving against the market. He noted that falling yields combined with renewed ETF inflows could help BTC regain momentum toward $90,000 and potentially $100,000.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: BTC Extends Losses Below $83,000

Bitcoin continued to decline for a fourth consecutive day, slipping below the $83,000 level as bullish momentum weakened. Nevertheless, the broader technical structure remains constructive, with BTC trading above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The SuperTrend indicator, positioned near $79,664, provides another potential support level. Momentum indicators, however, present a mixed picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 51, suggesting that momentum has softened without confirming a decisive reversal of the broader trend.

On the downside, the $83,000 area represents an immediate reference point. Below it, the 50-day EMA near $79,702 and the SuperTrend level around $79,664 form an important support zone. A sustained break beneath this cluster could expose the 100-day EMA at $75,855, followed by the 200-day EMA near $75,189.

These lower levels could attract renewed buying interest if the broader bullish structure remains intact. However, continued selling pressure could increase the likelihood of a deeper correction.

Ethereum Technical Outlook: ETH Tests Key Support

Ethereum traded near $2,560 as buyers attempted to stabilize prices following losses throughout the week. Despite the recent weakness, ETH remains above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating that its broader bullish structure has not yet been invalidated.

The 50-day EMA near $2,505 represents the first major support level, followed by the SuperTrend indicator around $2,478. A decisive move below this zone would expose the 100-day EMA at $2,339 and the 200-day EMA near $2,295.

Momentum indicators suggest that the recovery is losing strength. The RSI has fallen to approximately 44, while the MACD remains deeply negative, signaling persistent bearish pressure in the short term.

With clearly defined overhead resistance levels limited on the daily chart, ETH’s next move may depend heavily on broader market sentiment, ETF flows and whether buyers can defend the current support zone. A sustained recovery would help stabilize the outlook, whereas a breakdown below support could accelerate selling.

XRP Technical Outlook: $1.40 Support Comes Into Focus

XRP traded around $1.41 as selling pressure spread across the altcoin market. Despite the pullback, the token remained above its short-, medium- and long-term EMAs, preserving a cautiously constructive broader technical structure.

Momentum indicators, however, point to weakening bullish conviction. The MACD line remains below its signal line, with both hovering around the zero level and the histogram slightly negative. Meanwhile, the RSI near 45 suggests that momentum has cooled and the market may be entering a consolidation phase.

The immediate support level stands near $1.40, where the 50-day EMA is positioned. Below this area, the 200-day EMA around $1.38 represents the next potential defense, followed by the 100-day EMA near $1.34. The SuperTrend baseline around $1.30 provides a deeper support reference.

On the upside, XRP faces resistance from a descending trendline originating near $1.70. A decisive daily close above this barrier could strengthen the recovery outlook and encourage additional buying interest. Conversely, failure to overcome resistance, combined with a break below the $1.40 support zone, could expose XRP to a deeper corrective move.

Market Outlook

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are facing renewed selling pressure as ETF outflows weaken demand across the cryptocurrency market. Although all three assets retain elements of a constructive longer-term technical structure, their short-term momentum has deteriorated.

Bitcoin’s ability to defend the $79,700 support cluster, Ethereum’s response around $2,500 and XRP’s performance near $1.40 will be important in determining whether the current decline develops into a deeper correction or gives way to renewed consolidation. ETF flows, the US dollar and Treasury yields are likely to remain key drivers of market direction.

The daily BTC/USD chart shows a notable improvement in Bitcoin’s price structure after successfully establishing a strong base between $57,500 and $60,000. This foundation was followed by a strong bullish advance, allowing Bitcoin to overcome multiple resistance levels and rise toward $86,000. The move signals a transition from consolidation to a more bullish phase, supported by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Bitcoin is now testing an important resistance area near $87,500, which could play a decisive role in determining whether the current uptrend can continue. Maintaining support within the $82,500–$84,000 region remains crucial for preserving the constructive technical setup, particularly while BTC/USD holds above previously breached resistance levels.

From a technical standpoint, Fibonacci retracement levels identify $80,000 as the first major support, corresponding to the 0.236 retracement. Below this, the $76,500 area around the 0.382 retracement provides a stronger support level, while $72,500 near the 0.5 retracement represents another important downside zone. Recent trading activity indicates that Bitcoin has entered a consolidation period beneath key resistance, which could represent a phase of momentum building before the next significant directional move. A decisive breakout above $87,500, confirmed by a daily close above this level, would improve the outlook for a broader advance toward $95,000 and potentially $97,500. In contrast, a decline below $80,000 could trigger a deeper pullback toward the next support areas, although this would not necessarily invalidate the medium-term bullish trend.

Overall, Bitcoin is approaching a crucial technical area that may determine the direction of its next major move. A temporary move above $87,500 would not, by itself, provide sufficient confirmation of a renewed bullish trend. Sustained price action above this resistance, combined with the development of a solid base above the breakout level, would offer stronger confirmation. Meanwhile, continued consolidation above $82,500 and the maintenance of higher lows would keep the broader bullish outlook intact and leave room for further gains. However, a decisive break below $80,000 would raise the risk of a deeper correction toward $76,500, with $72,500 becoming a potential target if selling pressure accelerates. Therefore, Bitcoin’s ability to overcome the $87,500 resistance will be a key factor in determining its next major move, while the support levels below will remain critical for evaluating the strength and sustainability of the broader bullish structure.

Support Levels: $80,000 — $76,500 — $72,500
Resistance Levels: $87,500 — $95,000 — $97,500

Market Overview

The cryptocurrency market remains relatively quiet, with prices showing limited movement compared with the previous session. At around $2.87 trillion, total crypto market capitalization is cautiously recovering from last week’s low near $2.83 trillion. However, as long as the market stays below the $2.90 trillion threshold, the short-term technical trend remains bearish.

A stronger US dollar and uncertainty across equity markets continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Nevertheless, cryptocurrencies have frequently acted as an early indicator of changes in risk appetite. As a result, the recent stabilization in crypto could potentially be followed by improving sentiment in traditional markets over the next few sessions.

Bitcoin found support around $82.5K during Monday evening and early Tuesday trading. At the time of writing, BTC had recovered to approximately $84K, returning to the consolidation range seen over the past week. The current short-term setup suggests that Bitcoin may have established support after pulling back toward previous highs and allowing the earlier rally to cool. If bullish sentiment remains intact, BTC could attempt to break above $87K and reach fresh multi-month highs.

If the broader crypto market serves as an early gauge of global risk appetite, Ethereum can be viewed as a useful indicator of sentiment within the cryptocurrency sector. Ethereum has now posted seven consecutive weeks of gains, avoiding a deeper correction. On Tuesday morning, ETH moved above $2.7K after reaching around $2.8K last week.

The second-largest cryptocurrency continues to maintain a strong bullish structure and is making another attempt to move toward the $2.8K–$3.3K area. This region previously served as a consolidation zone from November through January and could become an important area for Ethereum in the sessions ahead.

News Background

Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine, said that asset tokenisation and the development of AI agents could emerge as two major growth drivers for the next cryptocurrency cycle. He argued that AI is increasingly influencing the digital economy, creating demand for dedicated payment systems and infrastructure capable of supporting AI-driven transactions.

Strategy has reported another Bitcoin purchase, marking its second consecutive week of acquisitions. The company bought an additional 1,666 BTC at an average price of approximately $85.7K per Bitcoin. Its total Bitcoin holdings have now reached 847,666 BTC, with an average acquisition price of around $75.4K per coin.

Bitmine also added 17,362 ETH to its holdings last week, bringing its Ethereum reserves to approximately 6.001 million ETH, equivalent to 4.92% of the cryptocurrency’s total supply. To reach its stated goal of accumulating 5% of the total ETH supply, the company would need to purchase another 100,000 ETH.

US spot Solana ETFs recorded approximately $188 million in inflows last week, representing their strongest weekly inflow since the funds launched in October 2025. Cumulative inflows into these products have now exceeded $1.6 billion.

Bitcoin traded at $83,942.62 at 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, down $1,743.44 from the same time a day earlier, with the bond market emerging as the main catalyst behind the decline. The cryptocurrency opened at $84,370.41, 2.1% below Wednesday’s opening level, before falling to $83,462.29 by 7:33 a.m. ET as U.S. traders entered the market. Over the previous 24 hours, BTC-USD had fallen 2.74%, while spot trading volume reached $45.05 billion, 19.47% higher than the previous day. The decline was therefore accompanied by a notable increase in trading activity.

The pressure originated outside the cryptocurrency market. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.15% on Thursday, its highest level since July 2007, while the 30-year yield reached 5.446%, a level not seen since June 2004. On Wednesday alone, the 10-year yield jumped 15 basis points from 4.96% to 5.11% following stronger-than-expected September business data. With government bonds now offering yields above 5%, Bitcoin, which generates no coupon or cash flow, faces a significantly higher opportunity cost.

That shift helps explain why Bitcoin’s latest rally lost momentum. BTC surged from around $75,000 in mid-September to above $87,000 on September 21 and 22, marking its first move into that territory since January. The rally then reversed sharply on Wednesday, sending Bitcoin from $87,200 to as low as $83,500, while Thursday’s decline kept the cryptocurrency below $84,000 for much of the U.S. morning session.

Despite the pullback, Bitcoin’s broader performance remains positive. The cryptocurrency has gained 9.52% over the past seven days, 4.59% over 30 days, 29.99% over 60 days and 39.09% over 90 days. Its market capitalization stands at approximately $1.68 trillion, with 20.09 million BTC in circulation. The broader trend that lifted Bitcoin from its summer lows remains intact, but the cost of holding the asset has increased significantly.

The key technical question now centers on the $84,000-$85,000 area. If that zone holds, the September rally could regain momentum toward $96,700. A sustained break lower could instead expose Bitcoin to a move toward $77,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed $2.65 billion over five sessions, providing an important source of demand that could offset the impact of rising yields. If ETF inflows remain strong while Treasury yields stabilize, the current decline could develop into a higher low. However, continued yield increases combined with weaker ETF demand could trigger further deleveraging.

Other market factors, including Strategy’s 846,000-BTC treasury and Friday’s $16 billion options expiry, add to the broader battle between higher discount rates and institutional demand.

Real Yields, Rather Than Inflation, Drove the Selloff

The composition of Wednesday’s Treasury selloff is particularly important for Bitcoin. According to the Treasury’s daily real-yield curve, the 10-year real yield rose from 2.63% to 2.76% in a single session. That accounted for 13 of the 15 basis points added to the nominal 10-year yield. Meanwhile, 10-year inflation compensation, measured by the difference between nominal and real yields, increased only 2 basis points, from 2.33% to 2.35%.

This distinction is significant. If investors had been primarily concerned about accelerating inflation, inflation expectations would likely have risen more sharply, potentially supporting Bitcoin’s role as an alternative store of value. Instead, real Treasury yields increased substantially while inflation expectations barely moved. Investors were therefore demanding greater inflation-adjusted compensation for holding government debt, creating a tougher hurdle for assets that do not generate income.

The catalyst appeared to be stronger economic growth rather than higher prices. The S&P Global composite PMI for September rose to 58.4 from 56.0, while the services reading reached 58.7 and manufacturing climbed to 57.0. The figures represented the strongest overall expansion in the survey since July 2021. A stronger economy gives the Federal Reserve less incentive to ease policy and prompted investors to reassess the expected path of interest rates.

Bitcoin responded almost immediately. As the 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5.05% shortly after the PMI release, BTC lost its hold above $86,000. By the end of Wednesday, when the Treasury yield had reached 5.11%, Bitcoin had fallen to around $83,500. The continued rise to 5.15% on Thursday kept the cryptocurrency under pressure.

The relationship between real yields and Bitcoin has therefore become an important market indicator. A decline in the 10-year real yield below 2.65% could ease some of the pressure and bring the $87,000 area back into focus. Conversely, a move toward 2.85%-2.90% would point to a more prolonged period of restrictive monetary conditions and could put the $84,000 support level at risk.

A stronger U.S. dollar is adding to the pressure. The U.S. Dollar Index reached 100.80 on Wednesday, its highest level in two months, while EUR/USD fell below 1.1390 on Thursday. A stronger dollar can tighten global financial conditions, while Bitcoin has historically shown an inverse relationship with the greenback during rate-driven market moves. Gold also declined 0.56% to $4,293 an ounce, suggesting that the selling pressure is affecting a broader group of non-yielding assets rather than being limited to cryptocurrencies.

For Bitcoin traders, movements in Treasury real yields over the coming week could therefore prove more important than many on-chain indicators.

Bitcoin’s September Rally: From $75,000 to $87,400 and Back

Understanding Bitcoin’s recent rally provides context for the current pullback. September began with a three-week streak of ETF inflows totaling $3.8 billion, which ended on September 5 and represented the strongest such run of 2026. The strongest single-day inflow during that period reached $730.9 million on September 3.

Momentum subsequently weakened. The following week saw $462.7 million in net ETF outflows, including $450.3 million in redemptions on September 15.

Bitcoin’s price followed the shift in flows, falling to around $75,000 on September 15 and 16. The decline came after the Federal Reserve raised rates and Washington delivered a setback for crypto market-structure legislation. The Fed increased its target range to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first rate hike since 2023, while the rejection of the CLARITY Act removed a regulatory development that investors had been anticipating.

The recovery was subsequently rapid and heavily influenced by leverage. Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000 before breaking through a trading range that had constrained prices since August. On September 21, BTC climbed from a Sunday close near $81,159 through $85,000, its first move above that level since late January, before extending into the $86,000-$87,000 range. Intraday highs on September 21 and 22 reached approximately $87,300-$87,400 on major exchanges.

The $80,000-$82,000 area was important not only technically but also because significant short positions had accumulated there during months of range-bound trading between $76,000 and $82,000. Once Bitcoin moved above $82,000, successive short-liquidation clusters around $82,000, $84,000 and $85,000 triggered additional buying pressure. The resulting short squeeze accelerated the move higher.

Spot demand also contributed, making the rally more than simply a derivatives-driven move. Monday’s $998.95 million in spot ETF inflows marked the largest one-day total in 11 months, while Strategy also financed a new Bitcoin purchase. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization subsequently returned above $3 trillion on several market trackers.

The decline from $87,400 to $83,462 represents a roughly 32% retracement of the advance from $75,000. That remains within the range of a typical consolidation following a rapid squeeze. A 50% retracement would place Bitcoin near $81,200, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement sits around $79,700, close to Strategy’s latest average purchase price of $79,670.

Those levels could become increasingly important if the correction deepens. For now, Bitcoin remains in the upper portion of the trading range established during September.

Leverage Is Being Cleared From Both Directions

Bitcoin’s derivatives market has experienced sharp liquidations on both the upside and downside, helping reshape positioning for the next move.

The first wave occurred during the September 21 breakout. Short covering helped push Bitcoin from approximately $80,300 to $85,134, while $262.3 million in short positions were liquidated within a single 60-minute period. Total crypto liquidations that day exceeded $756 million, including around $650 million in short positions, affecting more than 136,000 traders.

The reversal came on Wednesday. When Bitcoin dropped below $84,000 following the PMI release, long positions absorbed much of the damage, with approximately $280 million in long liquidations recorded during the session. Traders who entered leveraged positions around $86,000-$87,000 were caught by the sharp rise in Treasury yields and forced to exit near the lows.

The two-way liquidation cycle has two important effects. First, it reduces excessive leverage. After roughly $650 million in shorts were liquidated during the rally and another $280 million in longs were cleared during the decline, fewer heavily leveraged positions remain concentrated around individual price levels.

Second, the moves demonstrate how sensitive leveraged traders have become to macroeconomic data. When the 10-year Treasury yield moves 15 basis points in one day, leveraged perpetual-futures positions can face liquidation following relatively modest moves in Bitcoin. In this environment, the derivatives market is increasingly reacting to movements in the bond market.

The distinction between ETF investors and futures traders is also important. Someone who bought IBIT near Bitcoin’s $87,000 peak faces a paper loss but does not face a margin call or automatic liquidation. A leveraged futures trader entering at the same price may already have been forced out. This difference means ETF demand can provide more persistent support during corrections, while leveraged futures positions can accelerate downside moves.

The main risk is renewed leverage. If traders rebuild large long positions during a rebound toward $86,000 while Treasury yields continue rising, another round of liquidations could follow. A more stable setup would involve spot-driven gains accompanied by relatively subdued funding rates. Spot trading volume over the past 24 hours has already increased substantially from its August low, indicating greater activity in the underlying market.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract $2.65 Billion Over Five Sessions

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market remains one of the most important sources of demand. The funds recorded five consecutive sessions of net inflows: $159.5 million on September 17, $433 million on September 18, $998.95 million on September 21, $714.7 million on September 22 and $346.9 million on September 23. Combined, the five sessions generated approximately $2.65 billion in inflows.

The September 23 figure is particularly notable because it came during a major Treasury selloff. Investors added $346.9 million to spot Bitcoin ETFs even as Bitcoin declined from around $87,200 to $83,500. While the inflow was significantly lower than the previous day’s $714.7 million, demand remained positive despite the increase in real yields.

The breadth of the buying is also notable. On Monday, IBIT attracted $381.4 million, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) received $289.1 million and Fidelity’s FBTC added $238.8 million. Together, the three funds accounted for approximately $909 million of inflows. Other products, including Grayscale, Bitwise and Morgan Stanley funds, also recorded positive flows.

Tuesday showed a similar pattern. IBIT received $350.3 million, FBTC attracted $257.4 million and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT recorded $99 million in inflows. The participation of products distributed through traditional wealth-management channels suggests that some of the demand is coming through established investment platforms rather than solely from short-term cryptocurrency traders.

The broader ETF flow picture has also improved. Investors have directed approximately $4.6 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since August 19, reversing earlier outflows. As a result, the category has returned to approximately $320 million in net inflows for 2026.

The key question is whether the positive flow streak continues. A sustained slowdown or a return to net outflows could remove an important source of demand, particularly if Treasury yields continue to rise. Conversely, continued inflows would indicate that institutional buyers remain willing to allocate to Bitcoin despite higher real yields.

IBIT and the Changing ETF Flow Landscape

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust remains a major vehicle for institutional Bitcoin exposure, but September’s flow data shows that demand is becoming more distributed across different funds.

IBIT led the two largest sessions of the latest inflow streak, attracting $381.4 million on Monday and $350.3 million on Tuesday. However, it did not account for the majority of total category inflows on those days.

Earlier in the month, IBIT had held a much larger lead. On September 18, for example, Fidelity’s FBTC attracted $306 million, nearly three times IBIT’s inflow, as Bitcoin moved toward $81,000. The shift indicates that investors are using multiple ETF products rather than directing all new allocations through a single fund.

IBIT’s regulatory filings also illustrate how much its flows have changed during 2026. According to its SEC 10-Q filing for the six months ended June 30, the trust reported a $22.18 billion decrease in net assets from operations, reflecting Bitcoin’s price decline during the first half of the year. Over the same period, the trust purchased $2.68 billion of Bitcoin and sold $8.42 billion, resulting in net sales of approximately $5.74 billion as redemptions exceeded creations. During the first half of 2025, by comparison, it purchased $19.13 billion and sold $4.16 billion.

That contrast provides context for September’s renewed inflows. The latest buying represents a change from the redemption-heavy environment seen during the first half of the year.

For IBIT investors, Bitcoin’s $84,000-$85,000 area remains an important near-term reference point because the fund is designed to track the underlying spot Bitcoin price. Daily ETF flow figures can also be revised, so individual sessions should be interpreted within the broader trend rather than in isolation.

Overall, the latest flow data suggests that Bitcoin’s institutional demand base is spread across several products and distribution channels. Whether that demand can continue absorbing selling pressure will depend heavily on the interaction between ETF flows and the direction of Treasury real yields.

Bitcoin declined on Wednesday as investors moved away from risk-sensitive assets amid a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields, growing expectations of another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase, and higher oil prices following setbacks in U.S.-Iran diplomatic discussions.

The cryptocurrency had surged nearly 7% on Monday, climbing above $87,300 and reaching its highest level since late January. While some of those gains have since been erased, market sentiment toward the digital asset remains supported by optimism around the evolving regulatory landscape, despite the failure of the Clarity Act to advance through Congress.

By 18:12 ET (22:12 GMT), Bitcoin was trading 1.7% lower at $84,652.

Rising Yields and Oil Pressure Risk Assets

Treasury yields jumped on Wednesday after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again in October.

The latest S&P Global survey showed U.S. business activity expanding for a fourth consecutive month in September, reaching its strongest pace since July 2021. Growth was driven by both manufacturing and services, while input costs accelerated, pushing inflation to its highest level since October 2022. Rising fuel and transportation expenses were key contributors.

As a result, traders increased their expectations for another Fed rate hike. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a quarter-point increase at the October FOMC meeting rose to roughly 68%, up from around 55% a day earlier. Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed 16.8 basis points to 5.116%, its highest level since July 2007.

Risk sentiment was also weakened by a rebound in oil prices. Brent crude rose 4.3% to settle at $103.50 per barrel after optimism surrounding potential diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran faded.

Although President Donald Trump had earlier described talks between U.S. and Iranian officials as “very good,” subsequent comments from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested the discussions represented ongoing dialogue rather than a significant breakthrough. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated that Iran would not yield to external pressure, despite remaining open to diplomacy.

Investors were also monitoring Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington, his first state visit to the United States in more than a decade.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Remain Strong

Despite the pullback in crypto prices, institutional demand for Bitcoin continued to improve. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.71 billion in inflows so far this week, marking their strongest weekly performance since late August, according to SoSoValue data.

Investor confidence was further supported by additional Bitcoin purchases disclosed by Strategy, one of the largest corporate holders of the cryptocurrency.

Although the Clarity Act failed to pass Congress earlier this month, the setback was partially offset by a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission exemption allowing tokenized stocks to be offered on blockchain networks. The move was viewed positively by the crypto industry because it could accelerate the integration of blockchain technology with traditional financial markets.

Adding to that momentum, the New York Stock Exchange and Blockchain.com announced plans to explore blockchain-based tokens linked to U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, highlighting growing interest in asset tokenization.

Altcoins Follow Bitcoin Lower

Most major cryptocurrencies traded lower alongside Bitcoin on Wednesday.

Ether fell 2.2% to $2,692, while XRP dropped 4%.

Even so, many altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in recent sessions, benefiting from expectations that tokenized-stock initiatives could attract more activity to blockchain ecosystems beyond Bitcoin.

BNB declined 2.4%, Solana slipped 2.5%, and Cardano lost 5.3%.

Among meme tokens, Dogecoin tumbled 7.3%, while $TRUMP plunged 11.1%.

• Bitcoin surged past the $85,000 mark on Monday after advancing 5.64% last week and finishing above its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $78,200.
• US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted modest net inflows of $6.21 million last week, reflecting continued investor interest despite the CLARITY Act setback and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.
• According to one analyst, the latest rally has been fueled by short-covering activity, trader repositioning, and increased leverage, which could leave Bitcoin exposed to a correction if the breakout loses momentum.

Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) continued its upward momentum on Monday, climbing above the $85,000 level after gaining nearly 6% last week and breaking through an important resistance area. Institutional interest also remained relatively stable, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording modest inflows despite regulatory uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.

Institutional Demand Holds Up

According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $6.2 million in net inflows last week, reversing the previous week’s outflow of $462.7 million. The return of positive flows suggests that institutional investors remain engaged even as regulatory and macroeconomic conditions become less supportive.

Should ETF inflows strengthen further in the coming days, Bitcoin could maintain its bullish trajectory and push toward higher price levels.

Analysts Urge Caution

Despite the recent rally, Bitunix analyst Dean Chen believes it is too early to confirm the start of a new bull market. He identified the $82,300–$82,800 region as a crucial resistance zone. A successful breakout followed by sustained support above this area would provide stronger evidence of a broader recovery.

However, Chen noted that trading volume has not increased significantly alongside prices, raising concerns about the strength of the advance. ETF flows have also remained inconsistent, while institutional demand has yet to establish a clear long-term inflow trend.

Market data shows Bitcoin Open Interest rose 3.6% over the past 24 hours, while short liquidations reached roughly $49 million. These figures suggest that the rally has been partly fueled by short covering and increasing leverage. If Bitcoin fails to maintain its breakout, elevated leverage could intensify downside risks.

Rally Defies Macro Headwinds

Chen emphasized that Bitcoin’s strength is particularly notable because it has occurred despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. The US Dollar Index gained more than 1% last week and moved back above 100, while Treasury yields remained elevated across the curve.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% and signaled that another rate increase this year remains possible. Under normal circumstances, higher rates and stronger bond yields tend to pressure risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

As a result, Chen believes Bitcoin’s advance reflects capital rotation within the crypto market, short-covering activity, and renewed leverage rather than a broad improvement in liquidity conditions. Stablecoin market capitalization also remains below its peak reached earlier this year, suggesting overall crypto liquidity has yet to fully recover.

For a stronger bullish confirmation, the analyst is monitoring whether Bitcoin can hold above the $82,700–$82,800 area while ETF inflows and Open Interest continue to grow steadily.

Technical Outlook

Bitcoin closed above its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $78,200 last week, a development that strengthens the medium-term technical outlook. If this support remains intact, the next upside targets are the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $87,600 and the 100-week SMA around $89,600.

Momentum indicators remain constructive. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 61, indicating positive momentum without entering overbought territory. The MACD also remains in bullish territory, supporting the possibility of additional gains.

However, if Bitcoin loses momentum and falls back below the 50-week SMA, the market could retrace toward the key psychological support level at $70,000.

Daily Chart Perspective

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to trade comfortably above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, which are clustered between roughly $72,300 and $74,900. This reinforces the current bullish structure.

The daily RSI is approaching overbought conditions near 70, while the MACD remains positive, indicating strong but potentially stretched upward momentum.

Immediate resistance is located around $85,000. A decisive break above this barrier could pave the way for further gains. On the downside, the first major support sits near the 50-day EMA around $74,900, followed by the 200-day EMA near $73,500 and the 100-day EMA around $72,300. If a deeper correction develops, additional support levels can be found near $66,500 and $62,300.

Market Overview

The crypto market has gained 1.2% over the past 24 hours. The Fed’s key interest rate hike failed to trigger a major market reaction, despite a short-lived increase in volatility. Traders quickly shifted their focus toward buying the dips. Meanwhile, several altcoins continued to post strong gains. The sharp rallies in coins driven by specific narratives could signal a meaningful change in overall market sentiment.

The strongest performers over the past 24 hours were NEAR Protocol, which advanced 18%, Zcash, up 17.5%, and Dash, which climbed 15%. On the weaker side, Filecoin declined 1%, while Hedera slipped 0.1% and Tron edged up 0.1%. Overall, the performance of major altcoins highlights the increasingly bullish tone across the crypto market over the past day.

In contrast, the cryptocurrency sentiment index signals a more cautious mood, falling to 50 from 51 a day earlier. However, the decline is not particularly concerning, as the index has remained above the 50 mark for roughly four weeks after spending nearly a year in the lower half of its range, apart from a few brief periods.

Bitcoin showed only a limited response to the Fed’s interest rate decision, unlike the more volatile reaction seen across traditional financial markets. The leading cryptocurrency appears to have already experienced a significant negative reaction to the failure of the CLARITY Act, temporarily reducing its sensitivity to other market developments and helping it withstand the impact of a stronger US dollar.

News Background

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest outflow since June 25, with more than $450 million withdrawn after the CLARITY Act failed to secure enough support in the US Senate.

Following the unsuccessful vote on the CLARITY Act, Bernstein said that regulatory responsibility for the crypto industry will largely remain with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm also expects regulatory efforts covering native tokens, decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenized shares to accelerate.

According to CoinShares, the combined mining output of publicly traded Bitcoin miners fell below the break-even level during the second quarter. Bitcoin ended the quarter at approximately $58.4K, while the average cost of mining one BTC was around $75.5K. Hashprice, an important measure of mining profitability, also reached a new all-time low in June.

According to Lookonchain, the largest US Bitcoin miner, MARA Holdings, acquired another 1,292 BTC at an average price of $76.3K per coin. Its Bitcoin holdings have now increased to 35,577 BTC, placing the company among the largest publicly listed corporate Bitcoin holders globally.

Meanwhile, developers have entered the final testing stage for Bitcoin Core 32.0. The upcoming release will introduce changes to the fee estimation mechanism, improve block validation speeds when reading data from disk and address a vulnerability related to walletnotify.

Bitcoin is trading around $75,750, down 3.5% over the past 24 hours and at its lowest level since August 21. The decline has been almost uninterrupted from the $79,530 high reached during Asian trading, marking a $3,780 slide that more than erased Monday’s recovery. Ether has fallen 3.9% to $2,407, while Solana is down 3% at $98.50. The selloff comes just hours before the U.S. Senate’s 2:15 p.m. ET cloture vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and a day before the Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first rate hike since 2023.

At the current price, Bitcoin is only $338 above Strategy’s average purchase price of $75,412 per BTC, based on its holdings of 845,050 BTC. It is also $517 above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $75,233, calculated from the $97,924-to-$57,800 decline. Meanwhile, the $75,000 psychological level continues to provide support after containing pullbacks since Bitcoin broke out of its August $63,000-$65,000 base. These three support indicators — a corporate cost basis, a technical retracement and a psychological threshold — are concentrated within a $750 range.

That convergence makes the current session particularly important. Holding $75,000 through the Senate vote and Wednesday’s Fed announcement would preserve the August breakout structure and leave room for a recovery toward $80,000-$82,850. A decisive break below it, however, would push Bitcoin beneath Strategy’s approximate breakeven level and expose the next major support area around $73,053-$73,127, where the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement meet.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization is approximately $1.52 trillion, based on 20,084,306 coins in circulation. The cryptocurrency remains 40% below its October 6, 2025 record high of $126,210.50 and is 32% lower than it was a year ago. Despite the recent decline, Bitcoin is still 23% higher over the past 30 days, highlighting how much of the late-summer advance is now being tested.

The broader macro environment is also weighing on risk assets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.041%, its highest level since 2007, while WTI crude trades near $104.43. The Nasdaq is down 0.9% and the S&P 500 has slipped 0.6%. Higher real yields, a firmer dollar and expectations for tighter monetary policy increase the relative cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as Bitcoin. Gold is also lower at $4,329.80, suggesting that Bitcoin is not currently receiving a meaningful haven bid.

The central question for the next 30 days is whether Bitcoin can remain above the $75,000-$75,412 pivot. The Senate’s CLARITY vote and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision could determine which side of that range the market settles on.

Bitcoin Slides From $79,530 to $75,750

Bitcoin entered Tuesday with a relatively constructive setup. On Monday, while U.S. semiconductor stocks came under heavy pressure and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 5.9%, Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction. It gained 2% and climbed above $79,000 as traders positioned ahead of the Senate vote. For a brief period, Bitcoin showed signs of decoupling from technology stocks, attracting additional buyers.

The overnight high reached $79,530 in Asia, just $470 below the $80,000 threshold that has rejected several attempts since early September. Momentum quickly faded. During Tuesday’s Asian session, Bitcoin declined toward $77,800 as uncertainty surrounding the legislation in Washington coincided with a recovery in oil prices. WTI had briefly dropped to $100 overnight before rebounding toward $103, reinforcing expectations for additional Fed tightening.

By the European morning, Bitcoin was around $77,400. Although roughly unchanged over 24 hours, it was already about 3% below the overnight peak and more than 1% lower for the week. XRP was the strongest major cryptocurrency at that point, rising more than 2% to $1.41, while Zcash climbed to $1,149. Ether, BNB, Tron, Hyperliquid and Dogecoin were each slightly lower, while Solana remained close to $101.

At 4:53 a.m. ET, Bitcoin traded at $76,873.68, with 24-hour volume of $15.71 billion. Before the New York open, it was down 1.01% at $76,957.57. Selling accelerated once U.S. markets opened. As the 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5.02% and reached 5.041%, Bitcoin fell through $76,500 and reached $76,542.23 around midday, representing a 2.56% daily decline.

The final move toward $75,750 came as prediction-market expectations for the legislation deteriorated. The probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year fell to 11% before the afternoon vote. That removed much of the remaining speculative demand. Ether dropped to $2,407, Solana fell below $100 and Bitcoin’s 24-hour loss widened to 3.5%.

The nature of the decline is important. There was no obvious liquidation cascade or exchange-specific disruption. Instead, Bitcoin experienced a persistent decline as three pressures developed simultaneously: weakening expectations for the legislation, rising Treasury yields and higher oil prices. Such steady selling is generally more consistent with spot-market selling and broader de-risking than forced liquidations, meaning a sustained reversal may require the underlying catalysts to change.

Senate CLARITY Vote: 60 Votes Needed

The Senate vote scheduled for this afternoon is not a final vote on the CLARITY Act. It is a cloture vote on the motion to proceed, which would end a filibuster and allow the Senate to begin debate and amendments. Final passage would take place later. Both stages require 60 votes.

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, meaning at least seven Democrats would need to support cloture if every Republican votes in favour.

The House previously passed the legislation 294-134, including support from 78 Democrats. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill 15-9 in May, but negotiations subsequently stalled over ethics provisions, protections for software developers and rules governing stablecoin rewards. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed for cloture in August after the chamber recessed without reaching an agreement.

Republican senators Cynthia Lummis, Tim Scott and John Boozman released a 635-page revised proposal on Sunday. They said the draft incorporated 126 substantive changes requested by Democratic negotiators. Lummis argued that Democrats had received the changes they requested, while also acknowledging that some members might remain unwilling to support the legislation.

Democrats have disputed that assessment. Senate Democrats delivered a counterproposal late Monday after meeting in Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office. Lummis subsequently rejected that proposal. Senator Mark Warner said the ethics provisions remained inadequate, while Republican Senator Susan Collins said she still needed to examine the lengthy bill, including its potential impact on community-bank deposits.

The executive branch has continued to support advancing the legislation. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has said he expects the Senate to move forward, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also urged senators to proceed.

With prediction markets assigning only an 11% probability to enactment this year, traders appear to have largely priced in a failed cloture vote. A failure would therefore confirm the prevailing expectation, while a successful vote could trigger a rapid repricing across Bitcoin and other crypto-related assets.

Key Disputes Holding Up the CLARITY Act

Three major issues remain central to the negotiations: ethics restrictions, stablecoin rewards and liability for decentralized-finance developers.

Ethics is the most prominent dispute. The revised Republican proposal would prohibit certain covered officials from issuing crypto assets and require them to deal with existing digital-asset interests through divestment or qualified blind trusts. Democrats argue that the provisions do not go far enough. One point of contention is whether state attorneys general would retain sufficient authority to pursue enforcement actions. A bipartisan group of state attorneys general, led by New York Attorney General Letitia James, has urged senators to preserve those powers.

Stablecoin rewards represent another major disagreement. The legislation would prohibit crypto companies from offering interest or yield on idle stablecoin balances in a manner economically similar to bank deposits, while permitting certain activity-based rewards linked to payments, transfers and trading. Banking groups are seeking stricter restrictions, arguing that yield-like incentives could pull deposits away from community banks.

The third issue concerns Section 604 and the potential liability of decentralized-finance developers. The provision could determine when developers of open-source software are treated as financial intermediaries.

Each issue affects a different group of lawmakers and industry participants, making the path to the required 60 votes more complicated. The Senate returned from recess on September 14 and is scheduled to leave again in early October for the midterm elections, leaving a relatively limited window for further negotiations.

Crypto companies are also preparing for an outcome in which Congress does not pass the bill. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has said that failure would not necessarily prevent regulatory clarity, given that the SEC and CFTC have indicated they are prepared to develop their own rules. SEC Chair Atkins has similarly said the agency will continue its crypto rulemaking regardless of the legislation’s progress.

Bitcoin Price Scenarios Around the Vote

Three broad outcomes could shape Bitcoin’s next move from the current $75,750 level.

If cloture fails to reach 60 votes, Bitcoin could initially fall below $75,000 as event-driven positions are unwound. The key technical question would then be whether the $75,000-$75,412 area can hold on a daily closing basis. A close below $75,000 would expose the $73,053-$73,127 support zone, followed by the $72,000 options max-pain level and the $70,000 strike, where open interest is concentrated.

A narrower failure, with 55-59 votes, could keep negotiations alive and raise the possibility of another attempt before the October recess. Under that outcome, Bitcoin could remain within a broader $75,000-$79,530 range while the market turns its attention toward Wednesday’s Fed decision.

A surprise result of 60 or more votes would represent a significant shift from current expectations. Bitcoin could then retest $79,530 and $80,000, followed by the $80,000-$82,000 supply zone. A sustained move above the $82,850 descending trendline, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $82,597, would put $85,000 into focus, with $90,000 representing a longer-range options-related level.

The broader setup remains highly dependent on two additional factors: the Federal Reserve’s updated projections and spot ETF flows. The Senate vote may determine short-term direction, but monetary policy and capital flows could have a greater influence over the following several weeks.

Fed Rate Decision and 5.041% Treasury Yield Add Pressure

The Federal Reserve began its two-day meeting Tuesday, with markets pricing in a quarter-point rate increase. Fed funds futures were showing an 86.3% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, which would move the target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. Such a move would mark the first Fed rate increase since 2023.

The latest economic data have reinforced expectations for tighter policy. August CPI increased 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while underlying inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% objective. August payrolls increased by 162,000, significantly above the roughly 55,000-56,000 consensus forecast.

For Bitcoin, the rate increase itself may be less important than the Fed’s updated projections. The June dot plot indicated a year-end 2026 federal funds rate of 3.8%, implying one additional hike. Markets are now pricing two quarter-point increases by December.

If the median projection rises to two hikes, current market expectations would be reinforced. A projection for three hikes could push real yields higher and place additional pressure on the $75,000 support area. Conversely, a one-hike median could ease pressure on the dollar and longer-term Treasury yields.

Treasury yields are an important transmission channel. The 10-year yield reached 5.041%, exceeding its 2023 peak, while the 30-year yield stood at 5.36% as of September 11. With long-term government bonds offering yields above 5%, investors face a higher opportunity cost when allocating capital to a volatile asset that generates no conventional yield.

The dollar provides another channel. Higher yields and expectations for additional rate increases have supported the U.S. currency, which can create additional headwinds for Bitcoin when priced in dollars. Gold’s decline to $4,329.80 also suggests that higher real yields are currently outweighing demand for traditional non-yielding defensive assets.

The Bank of Japan’s decision on Thursday adds another major event to the week. Seven-day Bitcoin options covering the Senate vote, Fed meeting and BOJ decision show slightly greater demand for puts than calls, indicating that traders are paying somewhat more for downside protection. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s 2:30 p.m. ET press conference Wednesday therefore represents another key catalyst for Bitcoin over the coming month.

Oil Above $104 Adds to the Inflation Problem

Oil prices are an important link between geopolitical developments, inflation expectations and monetary policy. WTI reached $104.43 at midday, up 3%, while Brent earlier climbed to $107.90.

The latest increase followed an attack affecting Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which provides an alternative route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi officials have warned that disruptions could affect as much as 4% of global oil supply. A new Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia and postponed Gulf-state talks with Iran have added to the geopolitical risk premium.

The speed of the oil rally is particularly important for financial markets. Brent was around $94.39 in late August, crossed $101 on September 9 and reached $105 the following day. At $107.90, the benchmark had gained $13.51 in less than four weeks, or roughly 14%.

For Bitcoin, the transmission mechanism runs through inflation and interest rates. Higher oil prices can increase inflation expectations, potentially encouraging tighter Fed policy. Higher rates can then lift real yields and support the dollar, reducing demand for risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s rejection near $79,530 occurred around the same time WTI rebounded from $100 toward $103, highlighting the close relationship between the two markets this week.

The geopolitical situation also carries implications for crypto regulation. A U.S. Defense Department inspector general report estimated the cost of the Iran war at $33.4 billion, including the reported loss of four F-15 fighter jets and up to 30 MQ-9 Reaper drones. The U.S. Justice Department is also seeking $61 million linked to what it describes as proceeds from Iranian black-market oil sales laundered through crypto.

Bitcoin’s behaviour during previous geopolitical escalations has generally resembled that of a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a traditional safe haven. During the earlier escalation in February, Bitcoin declined toward $63,000 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

That pattern could remain relevant. A further rise in WTI toward $110 could increase pressure on Bitcoin through higher inflation and rate expectations, while a decline back below $100 could reduce some of that pressure and create room for another test of $80,000.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is also scheduled to visit China on Wednesday, adding another geopolitical development to an already crowded calendar alongside the Federal Reserve decision.

• Bitcoin climbs above $77,000 as President Trump agrees to new ethics provisions in the crypto bill ahead of the US Senate’s vote on the CLARITY Act.
• Ethereum regains the $2,500 level as near-term support, reinforced by a strong cluster of key moving averages.
• XRP remains above its 200-day EMA, although gains could remain limited below the important psychological resistance at $1.40.

Bitcoin (BTC) is edging higher and trades around $77,884 on Monday, following the broader recovery across the cryptocurrency market. Ethereum (ETH) and XRP are also maintaining a neutral-to-bullish outlook, with prices holding key support levels around $2,521 and $1.38, respectively.

Trump supports crypto ethics provisions ahead of CLARITY Act vote

US President Donald Trump has agreed to key ethics provisions included in the CLARITY Act ahead of Tuesday’s important Senate vote. The revised language would prevent public officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets and allow both state attorneys general and the Department of Justice (DOJ) to enforce the restrictions, according to provisions released by Senate Republicans late Sunday.

The agreement was considered important for attracting Democratic support, which is needed for the Senate to move forward with Tuesday’s procedural vote.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, the main sponsor of the crypto legislation, argued that opposing the CLARITY Act would also mean rejecting stricter rules governing politicians’ involvement in crypto investments.

However, it remains uncertain whether Trump’s acceptance of the provision will be sufficient to secure enough Democratic votes. Reports indicate that Trump agreed to approximately 80% of the demands put forward by Senate Democrats.

The broader crypto market remains volatile as investors prepare for both Tuesday’s Senate vote on the CLARITY Act and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday. These events could continue to drive significant price fluctuations and influence the market’s near-term direction.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin maintains bullish momentum

Bitcoin is trading near $77,844 and retains a positive short-term bias as the price remains comfortably above its major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The technical structure has strengthened after BTC broke above a descending resistance trendline, with the breakout area located around $65,809.

Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero and beneath its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 points to neutral-to-positive momentum without indicating overbought conditions.

The first major support area is around the psychological $76,000 level. Below this, stronger structural support is found around the 50-day EMA at $73,384 and the 200-day EMA at $73,040. The 100-day EMA at $71,205 provides another layer of medium-term support.

If Bitcoin experiences a deeper correction, attention could turn toward the previously broken descending trendline near $65,810. Buyers may attempt to defend this level to preserve the broader bullish structure, provided daily closes remain above the reclaimed trendline.

Altcoin technical analysis: Ethereum and XRP remain supported

Ethereum is trading around $2,521 and continues to hold well above its key EMAs. The 50-day EMA at $2,265, 100-day EMA at $2,146 and 200-day EMA at $2,197 all remain below the current market price, supporting a bullish near-term technical outlook.

Momentum is again mixed. The RSI is holding near 62, indicating constructive buying pressure, while the MACD has moved below zero, suggesting that bullish momentum is losing some strength rather than undergoing a full reversal.

The 50-day EMA around $2,265 represents the first technical support if ETH pulls back. Further downside could bring the 200-day EMA near $2,197 and the 100-day EMA around $2,146 into focus. These levels could attract buyers during a deeper correction.

With no significant overhead resistance currently identified by the major daily moving averages, Ethereum’s near-term path remains tilted higher as long as the price stays above the $2,265 region.

XRP is also maintaining a constructive technical structure, trading above its 50-day EMA at $1.28, 100-day EMA at $1.25 and 200-day EMA at $1.36. Holding above all three major trend indicators keeps the short-term outlook bullish.

The RSI near 55 indicates moderately positive momentum, while the MACD remains below zero, suggesting that upward momentum is developing but remains relatively limited.

The 200-day EMA at $1.36 is the first important support level on the downside. A deeper decline could expose the 50-day EMA around $1.28, followed by the 100-day EMA near $1.25.

As long as XRP remains above these moving-average levels, the technical setup continues to favor consolidation with a bullish bias. However, a daily close below $1.36 would weaken the current structure and potentially expose the lower EMA support zones.

Investor appetite for U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs has strengthened in recent weeks, but the sector remains in negative territory for 2026 overall.

According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.52 billion in net inflows during August, followed by another $770.15 million so far in September. The renewed demand has fueled optimism that the market downturn may be fading, yet cumulative flows for the year are still roughly $1 billion below breakeven.

The shortfall largely stems from heavy outflows recorded in May and June, when institutional investors significantly reduced their exposure. June alone saw net withdrawals of $4.51 billion, more than offsetting the gains generated in March and April. As a result, ETF issuers still need additional inflows to erase the year’s losses.

Analysts at Bitfinex noted that the next major test for Bitcoin ETFs will be whether inflows remain resilient following this week’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Treasury buyback developments. They argued that continued demand despite elevated short-term interest rates would suggest that monetary policy is no longer a major obstacle for Bitcoin’s performance.

Currency markets have already indicated that higher bond yields may not necessarily limit Bitcoin’s upside potential. However, risks remain. Oil prices have jumped around 10% this month, with WTI crude futures climbing above $94 per barrel and reaching their highest level in three months. Further gains in energy prices could reignite inflation concerns and increase risk aversion across global financial markets, potentially creating headwinds for cryptocurrencies and other risk-sensitive assets.

Bitcoin is moving in a narrow range around $79,955 on the 5-hour chart, holding just above key support while technical indicators point to overbought conditions and weakening momentum. A 5-hour close below $78,138 could undermine the bullish structure and increase downside risk, while a decisive rebound may open the way toward levels above $82,178.

Tight Consolidation Calls for Caution

Bitcoin remains positioned slightly above the Ichimoku cloud, which spans roughly $79,236–$79,515. The 20-period SMA at $79,620 is also acting as an important near-term support level.

Although the broader bullish structure remains intact, momentum indicators are becoming less convincing. The MACD has turned negative, while the Money Flow Index has reached 100, pointing to extremely strong buying pressure and potential buyer exhaustion.

In short, Bitcoin continues to climb, but the momentum behind the move may be losing strength.

Bullish Setup Still Valid—But Confirmation Matters

The bullish outlook remains intact as long as Bitcoin avoids a 5-hour close below $78,138.

• Aggressive traders can look to capitalize on support around $79,620, but the setup carries bull-trap risk if Bitcoin fails to break through the $81,271–$82,178 resistance area.
• Conservative traders may prefer waiting for a 5-hour close above $82,178, providing stronger confirmation that buyers have regained control.

Key Risks to Watch

• Potential fake breakout: A brief move above $81,271 followed by a sharp reversal could signal a bull trap. The overbought readings and weak ADX of 12.54 suggest momentum remains limited.
• Breakdown risk: A 5-hour close below $78,138 would invalidate much of the bullish structure and could accelerate selling toward the $76,000 area.
• Indecision zone: The $79,620–$81,271 range remains relatively unclear. Traders may want to wait for a stronger volatility or momentum signal before opening fresh positions.

The Key Takeaway

A tight consolidation near recent highs combined with weakening momentum can signal an important turning point. When price continues pushing higher while indicators such as MACD and MFI begin to diverge, chasing the move becomes increasingly risky.

The broader trend may still favor the bulls, but confirmation is becoming more important than simply following price higher.

• Bitcoin remains above $77,000, although momentum indicators suggest that bullish pressure is beginning to fade.
• Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with Gold has risen to around 50%, reinforcing its appeal as a hedge against currency debasement.
• Arbitrum and Pyth Network have posted double-digit gains over the past 24 hours, ranking among the crypto market’s strongest performers.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $77,000 on Thursday, although bullish momentum is showing signs of moderation as its 90-day correlation with Gold approaches 50%. Meanwhile, Arbitrum (ARB) and Pyth Network (PYTH) have posted double-digit gains over the past 24 hours, making them among the market’s strongest-performing cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin increasingly moves in line with Gold

Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the NASDAQ has fallen to around 33%, down from nearly 60%, while its correlation with Gold has climbed to approximately 50%. Rising US government debt, now above $40 trillion, persistent fiscal deficits and elevated bond yields are encouraging investors to seek assets that can provide protection against currency debasement, including Bitcoin and Gold.

The recent decision to double long-maturity Treasury buyback operations from $2 billion to $4 billion could help reduce yields in the near term. However, the continued expansion of government debt remains a longer-term concern. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s growing relationship with Gold strengthens the argument for the cryptocurrency as a scarce digital asset with potential long-term value.

Bitcoin bulls pause as momentum cools

Bitcoin is trading near $77,328 at the time of writing on Thursday. The short-term outlook remains constructive, with BTC holding comfortably above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), positioned between approximately $69,400 and $72,400.

The cryptocurrency is also above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $75,233, calculated from the $97,924 to $57,800 decline, maintaining a broadly bullish technical structure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 65, indicating solid momentum, although it has eased from overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has moved below its signal line, suggesting that Bitcoin could enter a period of consolidation or take a temporary pause.

On the upside, the first major resistance stands at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $87,476. Beyond that, attention would turn toward the cycle high around $97,924.

On the downside, $75,233 represents the first key support. Below this level, BTC could find stronger demand around the EMA cluster, including the 200-day EMA at $72,365, the 50-day EMA at $70,574 and the 100-day EMA at $69,395. This area continues to support the broader bullish structure.

Arbitrum and Pyth Network maintain strong gains

Arbitrum has gained more than 5% on Thursday after surging approximately 12% the previous day. ARB maintains a bullish short-term setup, with its price trading above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs at $0.0906, $0.0929 and $0.1164, respectively.

The four-day recovery is now testing the bullish breakout above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1272, measured from $0.1495 to $0.0705. A sustained breakout above this level could open the way toward the $0.1495 swing high.

Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the MACD and signal line trending higher. However, the RSI at 76 indicates overbought conditions, raising the possibility of a short-term slowdown.

The 200-day EMA around $0.1164 provides the first layer of support, followed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1026.

Pyth Network has advanced around 3% on Thursday, adding to its 10% gain from the previous session. PYTH has now extended its recovery for four consecutive days and remains well above the 200-day EMA at $0.0499. The 50- and 100-day EMAs at $0.0455 and $0.0446, respectively, further reinforce the bullish technical structure.

The previously broken descending resistance trendline has turned into support near $0.0552, suggesting that buyers have absorbed the earlier selling pressure. On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the May 9 high of $0.0631, followed by the January 6 high at $0.0737.

The RSI near 75 places PYTH in overbought territory, although the MACD has rebounded from its signal line and continues to trend higher, indicating that bullish momentum remains favorable in the near term.

The former trendline breakout near $0.0552 is the first support level to watch, followed by the 200-day EMA at $0.0499. A deeper correction toward these levels would provide an important test of the sustainability of PYTH’s current uptrend.

• Bitcoin consolidates above $78,000 as ETF inflows return, helping support the broader bullish outlook.
• Ethereum pauses near $2,450 while continued institutional demand provides underlying support.
• XRP remains under pressure, with the 200-day EMA around $1.35 serving as a key support level.

Institutional demand remains firm as Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP consolidate

Cryptocurrency markets are broadly moving sideways on Tuesday after their recent advance lost momentum amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over the weekend. Bitcoin (BTC) is holding above the $78,000 level as buyers struggle to push the price higher. Ethereum (ETH) and XRP are also maintaining a neutral-to-bullish stance, trading above important support levels near $2,400 and $1.35, respectively.

Institutional interest continues to support crypto assets

Risk appetite has remained relatively strong in recent weeks, reflecting improving market sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 69 on Tuesday, up from 62 a day earlier, signaling a shift toward greater investor optimism.

If this positive sentiment persists, stronger demand for cryptocurrency investment products could help offset downside pressure and increase the possibility of another recovery phase.

Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted approximately $217 million in net inflows on Monday, reversing the $202 million in outflows recorded on Friday. According to SoSoValue, cumulative inflows have reached around $55 billion, while total net assets under management remain near $100 billion.

Ethereum spot ETFs also continued to attract capital, recording approximately $88 million in inflows on Monday. The sustained demand highlights continued institutional interest in gaining exposure to Ethereum.

Meanwhile, XRP spot ETFs recorded their tenth consecutive session of inflows, receiving nearly $6 million on Monday. Total cumulative inflows have climbed to approximately $1.66 billion, while average net assets under management remain around $1.45 billion.

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin remains range-bound

Bitcoin is trading near $78,324 and continues to hold comfortably above its major exponential moving averages (EMAs), preserving a constructive short-term trend despite the recent pause below its highs.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering close to 70, approaching overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive. Together, these indicators suggest that bullish momentum is still intact, although its strength has moderated.

On the downside, the 50-day EMA near $70,046 represents the first major support area, followed by the 100-day EMA around $69,086. A deeper correction could bring these levels into focus as potential areas where buyers may attempt to defend the broader uptrend. The 200-day EMA near $72,351 also remains an important medium-term reference during a larger pullback.

Altcoin Technical Analysis: Ethereum and XRP face limited upside momentum

Ethereum continues to show a positive short-term structure, with price holding well above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, which are positioned between approximately $2,045 and $2,170.

The RSI near 68 indicates solid bullish momentum but is approaching overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD has flattened around the zero line, suggesting that upside momentum remains positive but is beginning to lose strength.

Immediate support is located around $2,458, while stronger downside protection comes from the 200-day EMA near $2,168, followed by the 50-day EMA at approximately $2,117 and the 100-day EMA around $2,047. This EMA cluster could provide a broader demand zone if Ethereum undergoes a deeper correction.

With no major resistance level immediately overhead on the daily chart, a renewed advance would likely depend on fresh buying pressure. However, the elevated RSI leaves room for consolidation or a pullback toward the EMA cluster before another attempt at higher levels.

XRP continues to trade above its 200-day EMA near $1.35, keeping its broader technical structure constructive despite the recent retreat from higher levels. The 50-day and 100-day EMAs remain significantly below the current price around $1.21, while the RSI near 61 points to moderate bullish momentum without signaling overbought conditions.

However, the MACD has turned slightly negative, indicating that upside momentum is fading rather than confirming a decisive trend reversal.

Initial support is found around $1.37, followed by stronger structural support at the 200-day EMA near $1.35. A more significant decline could bring the $1.21 area into focus, where the 50-day and 100-day EMAs converge.

The $1.37–$1.35 zone is therefore crucial for XRP in the near term. Holding above the 200-day EMA would preserve the broader bullish outlook, while a daily close below this level could signal a more significant deterioration in the underlying trend.

This article is regularly updated throughout market hours.

Bitcoin is trading around $79,037 on the 5-hour chart, with bullish momentum fading while the broader trend remains supported. Buyers and sellers are increasingly battling for control, and a decisive move outside the current range could lead to a sharp breakout or breakdown.

Momentum Stalls as Market Risk Increases

Bitcoin’s latest rally appears to have run into resistance near $81,330, pushing the price back toward $79,037 and creating a pattern of lower highs. Despite this short-term weakness, the broader bullish structure remains intact, with Bitcoin still trading 16.6% above the 200-period SMA at $67,755.70.

However, several indicators are pointing to reduced buying strength. The MACD has produced a bearish crossover, while the RSI has eased to 58.7, suggesting that bullish momentum is losing steam. At the same time, declining trading volume and repeated doji candles indicate growing uncertainty as neither buyers nor sellers have established clear control.

Bitcoin Outlook: Breakout or Breakdown?

• Bullish setup: Buyers would need a convincing move above $79,500, or a strong bounce from the $77,500 region, where SMA(50) and SuperTrend support are concentrated.
• Bearish setup: Sellers could look for rejection around $80,500, or a breakdown below $76,800, which would signal a loss of SuperTrend support.
• Risk management: Stop-loss levels are positioned around key structural pivots to limit downside exposure.
• Price targets: Initial objectives are based on recent range highs and lows, while extended targets align with psychological and Fibonacci levels.
• Risk/reward: The potential reward remains attractive across the setups. However, bearish trades carry lower confidence because the broader trend continues to show resilience.

Bitcoin Technical Levels to Monitor

• Key support: $77,000–$77,500, a zone tested multiple times and reinforced by SuperTrend and SMA(50).
• Major resistance: $80,500–$81,300, covering recent highs and the upper Bollinger Band.
• Neutral zone: $78,000–$80,000, where choppy price action and false breakouts are more likely.

The bullish outlook remains intact above $76,979, the current SuperTrend level. A decisive move below this threshold could open the door to a deeper mean-reversion move toward $75,100 and potentially $72,350, based on Fibonacci levels and the top of the Ichimoku cloud.

Risk Radar: Potential Traps and Warning Signals

• Bull Trap Risk: A failed breakout above $80,500 could quickly turn into a sharp decline. Traders should look for strong volume confirmation before treating an upside breakout as reliable.
• Bearish MACD Signal: The bearish MACD crossover is an important warning sign, as weakening momentum despite higher price levels suggests sellers may be gradually gaining influence.
• Falling Volume: A breakout accompanied by weak volume would carry less credibility and increase the risk of a false move.

Key Takeaway: Patience Could Be the Best Strategy

When Bitcoin consolidates within a narrow range following a strong rally, waiting for confirmation can be more effective than trading inside the middle of the range. Entering too early can expose traders to repeated whipsaws as price moves in both directions.

A confirmed breakout or breakdown provides greater clarity and a stronger basis for taking a position. Until then, mean-reversion trades should be approached cautiously, with the key support and resistance zones serving as the main levels to watch.

Bitcoin is trading around $80,255, up 2.33% over the past 24 hours and more than 1% since midnight UTC. The cryptocurrency has held above the $80,000 level on a sustained basis for the first time since May. With approximately 19.82 million BTC in circulation, its market capitalization has climbed to roughly $1.59 trillion.

The latest advance has been rapid. Bitcoin surged 23% last week, marking its strongest weekly gain in three years, and has risen about 27% over the past month. From its June low near $58,756, the cryptocurrency has gained roughly 38%. Despite the recovery, Bitcoin remains around 36% below its October 2025 record high of $126,021 and approximately 14% lower year to date.

Price action has remained volatile, with Bitcoin briefly exceeding $80,000 before retreating toward $79,475 and later recovering above $80,000. Over the past two sessions, the trading range has extended from approximately $78,600 to $81,100.

The technical picture above the current price is becoming increasingly challenging. The previous swing high is located at $82,850, while the 50-week moving average stands at $81,081. The average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs is estimated between $80,000 and $82,000, while nearly 8% of Bitcoin’s total supply was acquired within this range.

Below the current price, support appears more clearly defined. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $82,850–$57,800 decline is positioned near $77,489. Further support comes from the 200-day EMA around $72,799 and the 50-day EMA near $67,760. The $75,000–$76,000 region has already been tested and successfully defended.

Bitcoin has yet to confirm a full breakout. Instead, it is approaching one of the strongest overhead supply zones in its recent trading history, supported by eight consecutive sessions of ETF inflows. The next move through the $80,000–$82,000 area could be decisive for the market’s direction over the coming months.

Treasury Buybacks Trigger Powerful Bitcoin Rally

The catalyst behind Bitcoin’s latest surge came primarily from traditional financial markets rather than the cryptocurrency sector.

On August 19, the US Treasury announced plans to at least double government bond buybacks to a minimum of $4 billion per operation between September 9 and November 4, focusing on longer-dated maturities. The announcement came after long-term bond yields had risen sharply, with yields reaching multi-year highs across the US, Japan, Germany and France.

Bitcoin had been trading within a six-week range, with prices near $64,103 as recently as August 18. The Treasury announcement helped break that range, triggering more than $3 billion in short liquidations on August 19 alone.

The rally subsequently accelerated as bearish positions were forced to cover. Bitcoin had become a popular short trade amid elevated real yields, and the Treasury intervention weakened the underlying argument behind that positioning. Forced buying across spot and perpetual markets then amplified the move.

By August 24, Bitcoin had reclaimed $80,000 for the first time since May. The cryptocurrency subsequently experienced another sharp move above $81,000 before profit-taking pushed it back toward $78,500.

The Treasury’s buyback program continues to provide a supportive backdrop for risk assets, while the US national debt has surpassed $40 trillion. This combination of fiscal concerns, bond-market intervention and shifting yields remains an important macro factor for Bitcoin.

$80,000–$82,000 Represents a Major Supply Zone

One of the most important factors for Bitcoin in the near term is the concentration of previously purchased coins around current prices.

Realized price distribution data indicates that nearly 8% of Bitcoin’s total supply was acquired between $80,000 and $82,000, representing one of the largest concentrations across the cryptocurrency’s historical price distribution.

Approximately 5% of total supply is concentrated around the $80,000 level, while the $82,000 area also represents a significant accumulation zone. The $78,000 level contains another major concentration, accounting for roughly 3.7% of supply.

This means a large volume of Bitcoin is approaching breakeven after spending months below its acquisition price. Holders who endured a substantial drawdown may be more inclined to sell once their positions return to cost, potentially creating additional resistance.

US spot Bitcoin ETF investors face a similar dynamic, with the average acquisition cost also estimated around the $80,000–$82,000 range.

By contrast, the downside structure is more supportive. More than 6% of Bitcoin’s supply is concentrated between $60,000 and $63,000, creating a significant historical demand zone. This area could serve as an important structural floor if the current rally loses momentum.

The 50-Week Moving Average at $81,081 Is a Key Technical Test

The 50-week moving average, currently near $81,081, is one of the most closely watched technical levels for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has remained below this indicator since November 2025. Historically, major recoveries above the 50-week moving average in 2020 and 2023 were followed by sustained bullish cycles. While the historical sample is limited, the level remains an important reference point for longer-term trend analysis.

Bitcoin recently moved marginally above its 50-week exponential moving average, but a more decisive move above the 50-week simple moving average would provide a stronger bullish signal.

The challenge is that the moving average sits directly inside the $80,000–$82,000 supply zone. A major trend indicator and a significant cost-basis cluster are therefore converging within a narrow price range.

Momentum indicators are also stretched. The 14-day RSI has remained above 80, indicating strongly overbought conditions, while the daily MACD has expanded significantly above its signal line. Composite technical indicators remain tilted toward the bullish side.

However, overbought conditions alone do not necessarily signal an imminent reversal. A pullback toward $77,489 or even the 200-day EMA near $72,799 could represent a normal consolidation rather than a breakdown, particularly if Bitcoin subsequently establishes support above the 50-week moving average.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Strengthen the Rally

The latest ETF data provides another important source of support.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded eight consecutive sessions of net inflows, with cumulative inflows reaching approximately $2.8 billion. August inflows have exceeded $3 billion, making it the strongest month for Bitcoin ETFs so far in 2026.

Daily inflows accelerated significantly during the rally, including approximately $297.5 million on August 17, $186.4 million on August 18, $517 million on August 19 and $606 million on August 20.

Total net assets across US spot Bitcoin ETFs have risen to more than $99 billion, compared with roughly $77 billion in mid-August. However, much of this increase reflects Bitcoin’s price appreciation rather than new capital inflows.

Despite August’s strong performance, Bitcoin ETFs remain approximately $2.5 billion net negative for 2026. The recent inflows have recovered a significant portion of the capital that exited the products between May and July.

The demand is not limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum ETFs have also recorded eight consecutive sessions of inflows, while several smaller crypto products linked to XRP, Hyperliquid and Solana have attracted additional capital.

This suggests that the current move is being supported by spot demand rather than relying entirely on leveraged derivatives.

BlackRock’s IBIT Leads ETF Demand

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has accounted for a substantial share of recent ETF inflows.

IBIT attracted approximately $1.3 billion during the previous week and accounted for a significant portion of total US spot Bitcoin ETF demand. Its month-to-date inflows have reached roughly $2.64 billion, the strongest monthly performance since October 2025.

The fund’s share price has also closely tracked Bitcoin’s rally, with IBIT recording a weekly gain of more than 22% and reaching record trading activity during the advance.

Another notable development is the growth of in-kind ETF conversions. IBIT had recorded roughly $5 billion in in-kind conversions by August 26, compared with $3 billion in October 2025.

The minimum transaction size for these conversions was reduced from $25 million to $1 million, making the mechanism accessible to a broader group of professional investors and high-net-worth participants.

In-kind conversions allow investors to move Bitcoin directly into ETF structures without selling the underlying asset in the traditional market. This could reduce the amount of immediately liquid Bitcoin supply and potentially strengthen the structural demand backdrop.

Bitcoin Rally Remains Relatively Unleveraged

One of the more encouraging features of the current rally is that derivatives positioning has not expanded dramatically alongside the price.

Bitcoin futures open interest remains around 700,000 BTC despite the cryptocurrency’s sharp advance. In previous rallies, rapid increases in open interest often indicated that leverage was chasing higher prices, increasing the risk of a subsequent liquidation cascade.

Recent data instead shows that Bitcoin’s price has risen while coin-denominated open interest has declined. Between August 12–18 and August 23, Bitcoin’s average price climbed roughly 22%, while coin-denominated open interest fell around 11%.

This suggests that the latest advance has been driven more by spot buying and the unwinding of bearish positions than by aggressive new leverage.

There has been some renewed derivatives activity over the past 24 hours, with futures volume rising around 6% and open interest increasing approximately 3%. Nevertheless, perpetual funding rates remain relatively moderate, indicating bullish positioning without the extreme leverage typically associated with overheated markets.

Overall, Bitcoin’s current rally appears to be among the less leveraged advances seen in recent years. The key question now is whether sustained spot demand can absorb the heavy supply between $80,000 and $82,000.

A decisive break above $81,081 and subsequently $82,850 would strengthen the bullish case. Conversely, rejection from this resistance zone could trigger a correction toward $77,489 and potentially lower support levels.

Bitcoin traded slightly higher on Wednesday, consolidating after reaching a three-month high as investors turned cautious following fresh U.S. inflation data. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure remained elevated in July, adding uncertainty to the outlook for interest rates ahead of the central bank’s September policy meeting.

Bitcoin was last up around 0.2% at $78,739.7 by 17:27 ET (21:27 GMT), after surging above the $80,000 level during the previous session.

Risk sentiment also received support from developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran standoff. A Russian media report indicated that Washington and Tehran had reached a ceasefire agreement that could be announced in the coming days. The report pressured oil prices, while positive comments from Pakistan and renewed Iran-Oman discussions concerning the Strait of Hormuz further supported broader market sentiment.

U.S. PCE Inflation Remains Elevated Ahead of September Fed Meeting

Bitcoin’s recent advance has been partly driven by the so-called “debasement trade,” with investors betting that efforts by the U.S. Treasury to stabilize rising bond yields could put downward pressure on the dollar.

That environment has encouraged capital to move into alternative and scarce assets, including Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and gold.

However, the latest U.S. inflation figures highlighted the challenge facing the Federal Reserve. The headline PCE price index increased 0.2% month over month in July, following a 0.1% decline in June. On an annual basis, PCE inflation held at 3.7%, slightly exceeding economists’ 3.6% expectation.

Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also remained firm. The measure rose 0.2% from the previous month and 3.3% year over year, matching both the previous annual reading and market expectations.

The data suggest that inflation continues to cool only gradually, potentially encouraging Fed policymakers to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates. A renewed acceleration in inflation could undermine the debasement trade, as expectations for higher interest rates would likely strengthen the dollar and reduce the appeal of alternative assets such as Bitcoin and gold.

Bernstein Projects Bitcoin at $150K by 2027 and $300K by 2029

Bernstein remains bullish on Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects, forecasting that the cryptocurrency could reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and approximately $300,000 at the peak of its next market cycle in 2029.

The brokerage expects increasing fiscal pressures, rising government debt and higher borrowing costs to encourage policies that gradually weaken currencies. Such an environment could boost demand for scarce assets, including Bitcoin.

Bernstein’s base-case outlook assumes Bitcoin continues to follow its historical four-year market cycle. The firm projects BTC at approximately $125,000 by the end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027 and around $300,000 in 2029.

Crypto Market Today: Altcoins Deliver Mixed Performance

The broader cryptocurrency market also showed mixed momentum as Bitcoin’s rebound began to cool.

Ether gained around 2.5% to $2,501.98, while XRP declined 3.1% to $1.3952. Solana advanced 0.5%, and BNB climbed 1.4%, while Cardano slipped 0.8%.

Among major memecoins, Dogecoin fell approximately 0.5%, whereas $TRUMP gained 1.5%.

Overall, Bitcoin remains above the $78,000 level, but persistent U.S. inflation and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s September decision could determine whether the latest rebound develops into a broader sustained rally.

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Bitcoin remained above $78,000 on Tuesday after briefly climbing to a three-month high, as concerns over the health of U.S. government finances weakened the dollar and encouraged investors to increase exposure to cryptocurrencies.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was little changed at $78,740.1 by 18:06 ET (22:06 GMT), after touching $81,220.4 earlier in the session. Bitcoin gained more than 22% last week, marking its strongest weekly performance since March 2023.

Bitcoin Rally Gains Momentum as U.S. Bond Buybacks Raise Debasement Concerns

Bitcoin’s recent rebound has been driven largely by growing concerns about U.S. fiscal conditions and the longer-term outlook for the dollar.

Investor worries intensified after the U.S. Treasury announced plans last week to nearly double the pace of its bond buybacks in an effort to contain rising Treasury yields.

The move raised concerns that increased government intervention in the bond market could undermine the dollar, fueling what has become known as the “debasement trade.”

OCBC analysts noted that the Treasury’s buyback plans have shifted the market narrative away from rising yields and toward concerns about dollar debasement. This has contributed to a weaker U.S. dollar, stronger gold prices and higher inflation expectations, while increasing uncertainty over policy and the Federal Reserve’s independence has added further pressure on the greenback.

As a result, investors have increasingly moved into gold and cryptocurrencies, which are viewed as relatively insulated from turmoil in traditional bond markets.

Bitcoin has been a major beneficiary of this trend, while its weak performance earlier in the year has also attracted bargain hunters looking to capitalize on the sharp rebound.

Bitcoin Rally Triggers $457 Million in Short Liquidations

Bitcoin’s rapid recovery has also triggered a wave of short-position liquidations.

According to Coinglass data, more than $457 million worth of Bitcoin short positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours. The surge follows last week’s rally, when billions of dollars in Bitcoin shorts were wiped out as prices accelerated higher.

Other major cryptocurrencies also experienced significant liquidations, with Ether short positions worth approximately $112.3 million liquidated over the same period.

Crypto Prices Today: Altcoins Lose Momentum After Strong Rally

The broader cryptocurrency market pulled back on Tuesday as altcoins also paused following their recent gains.

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell about 1% to $2,449.25, while XRP declined 2%.

Solana edged up 0.1%, whereas BNB and Cardano dropped 0.9% and 4.1%, respectively.

In the memecoin segment, Dogecoin fell 3.1%, while $TRUMP dropped 7.6%.

Overall, the crypto market appears to be taking a breather after a powerful rally, with Bitcoin remaining supported by renewed demand for alternative assets amid growing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability and potential dollar debasement.

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Solana (SOL) extended its strong weekly rally on Friday, gaining more than 19% so far this week and trading near the key 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $89. A sustained breakout above this resistance could reinforce the bullish outlook and pave the way for further upside.

The latest gains have been supported by improving liquidity conditions following the US Treasury’s decision to expand its debt buyback operations. At the same time, institutional demand for Solana has strengthened, with US-listed spot SOL ETFs attracting $14.58 million in net inflows on Thursday, their strongest single-day inflow since late July.

Improving Liquidity Conditions Support Solana

The US Treasury announced on Wednesday that it would double the size of certain debt buyback operations designed to improve liquidity in the longer-dated Treasury market.

According to Reuters, the Treasury plans to increase liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated nominal coupon securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.

The larger buyback program helped ease concerns over market liquidity and encouraged greater risk appetite across financial markets. It also contributed to a short squeeze in cryptocurrencies, with SOL jumping more than 10% on Wednesday before extending its advance to a Friday high of $90.20.

Institutional Demand for SOL Strengthens

Institutional interest in Solana has also picked up this week. Data from SoSoValue showed that US-listed spot SOL ETFs attracted $14.58 million in net inflows on Thursday, marking the strongest single-day inflow since the end of July.

Thursday also marked the third consecutive session of positive ETF flows this week. If institutional inflows continue to increase, they could provide an additional catalyst for SOL and support further price gains.

Solana Price Forecast: 200-Day EMA Remains Key Resistance

Solana was trading around $89.14 on Friday, maintaining a bullish short-term structure as the price remained comfortably above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $76.91 and $78.63, respectively.

However, SOL is currently testing the 200-day EMA at $89.28, which represents an important resistance level. The indicator could limit the upside during the initial breakout attempt.

Momentum indicators remain bullish but increasingly stretched. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 79, placing it in overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly positive. Together, these signals point to strong upward momentum, although the recent rally may leave SOL vulnerable to short-term consolidation or profit-taking.

On the downside, the first important support zone is around $77.07, supported by the 100-day EMA at $78.63 and the 50-day EMA at $76.91. A deeper correction could bring the broken ascending trendline near $74.38 into focus as the next major demand area.

On the upside, a sustained daily close above the 200-day EMA at $89.28 could strengthen the bullish setup and expose the next resistance near $96.19. This level may attract selling pressure following SOL’s sharp recent advance.

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Bitcoin edged lower on Wednesday, slipping 0.2% to $63,487, as easing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike failed to offset lingering market concerns. Investor sentiment was weighed down by fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as well as continued pressure from recent selling activity by Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.

July Inflation Data Meets Expectations

Markets closely monitored the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for clues on the Fed’s next policy move. The data followed a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report that had already prompted traders to reassess the likelihood of additional rate increases.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month in July after falling 0.4% in June, while annual inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.5%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.2% on a monthly basis and slowed to 2.5% year-over-year from 2.6%. All figures matched market forecasts.

Attention now shifts to the Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could provide further insight into inflation trends. While CPI and PPI remain important indicators, the Federal Reserve primarily focuses on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index when assessing inflation pressures.

Fed Rate Expectations Shift

The inflation data reinforced the view that policymakers may have room to keep interest rates unchanged rather than raise them further. Following the CPI release, CME FedWatch data showed the probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leaving rates unchanged in September rising to 62%, up from 54% previously.

JPMorgan economists Michael Feroli and Harry Downie estimated that core PCE likely increased 0.22% in July, which would keep the annual reading unchanged at 3.3%. However, they noted that the estimate could be revised after the release of July’s PPI figures.

The analysts added that the latest inflation report was unlikely to significantly strengthen either the hawkish or dovish camp within the Fed, leaving policymakers dependent on upcoming employment and inflation data. JPMorgan continues to expect a rate increase in December, although the possibility of an earlier move remains elevated.

Geopolitical Tensions Keep Markets on Edge

Beyond monetary policy, investors remained focused on developments in the Middle East. Hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz weakened as both the United States and Iran maintained firm positions regarding control of the strategic shipping route.

Former President Donald Trump stated that the United States had “total control” over the strait, while Iranian officials reiterated demands that Washington end hostilities and release frozen assets before any reopening could occur.

The uncertain outlook contributed to renewed volatility in energy markets. Brent crude briefly approached the $90-per-barrel mark as traders assessed supply risks linked to disruptions in the region. Additional concerns emerged after reported attacks on commercial shipping routes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Oman.

Altcoins Mostly Decline

The broader cryptocurrency market largely mirrored Bitcoin’s cautious performance. Ethereum gained 0.2% to trade near $1,881, while XRP fell 1.1%.

Elsewhere, Solana and BNB each slipped around 0.3%, while Cardano dropped 2.1%. Among meme-based cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin lost 1.8% and the TRUMP token declined 3.2%.

Overall, softer inflation data and reduced expectations for near-term Fed tightening provided limited support to digital assets, with geopolitical uncertainty and broader market caution continuing to cap upside momentum.

• Bitcoin traded sideways even as equities pushed to fresh record highs, underscoring its lack of correlation with the broader rally across global markets.
• Despite stocks climbing to new highs, Bitcoin remained largely range-bound, highlighting its divergence from the strength seen in traditional financial markets.
• Bitcoin showed little movement while global equities extended their gains, reflecting a continued disconnect from wider market optimism.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded in a narrow range as equities continued to climb and gold pulled back, indicating a market caught between fading institutional participation and mounting signs that selling pressure may be running out, according to a Glassnode report released Wednesday.

The report noted that Bitcoin’s muted price action contrasted sharply with the broader financial landscape, where major stock indexes pushed to fresh record highs while other asset classes remained active.

“Virtually every major asset has moved—except Bitcoin,” Glassnode observed, highlighting the cryptocurrency’s growing disconnect from the momentum driving global markets.

Bitcoin Shrugs Off Coldcard Wallet Theft

The report analyzed how the market reacted to the compromise of several self-custodied Coldcard hardware wallets. Although the incident sparked a surge in on-chain activity, it had virtually no effect on Bitcoin’s price.

In the three days following the theft, the volume of Bitcoin that had been inactive for at least a year surged to roughly 119,000 BTC—about 200 times the amount stolen—as users transferred funds to new wallets as a precautionary measure.

Despite the heightened activity, only around 10% of those coins were sent to exchanges, while the pace of new wallet creation normalized within days. Meanwhile, the amount of Bitcoin held in wallets less than one month old continued to increase, suggesting investors were relocating assets into new cold-storage addresses rather than preparing to sell.

According to Glassnode, the largest forced movement of long-dormant Bitcoin during the current market cycle generated virtually no selling pressure and failed to trigger any meaningful price reaction.

Bitcoin Shows Bottoming Signals but Demand Remains Weak

The report also highlighted that Bitcoin is beginning to exhibit traits commonly associated with market bottoms, though the current setup differs from previous cycles. Instead of being driven by panic selling, the signals are emerging from an extended period of market stagnation.

Historically, major bottoms have been accompanied by steep declines and sharp spikes in volatility. In contrast, the current cycle has seen profitability gradually erode during months of sideways price action, while volatility has remained exceptionally subdued.

Glassnode noted that its Seller Exhaustion Constant has dropped to the lowest level of the current cycle, entering a zone that has historically coincided with market bottoms. However, the metric remains roughly one-third above the levels recorded during prior bear-market troughs, suggesting that while seller fatigue is increasing, conditions have not yet fully matched those seen at previous cycle lows.

Institutional Demand Still Missing as a Key Catalyst

Glassnode also pointed to persistent weakness in institutional participation, noting that major sources of demand have provided little support for Bitcoin in recent months. According to the report, US spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buyers have not generated enough buying pressure to sustain the market’s recovery.

June saw approximately 65,800 BTC in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs—the largest monthly withdrawal on record—while purchases by corporate treasuries failed to fully offset those redemptions.

As Glassnode noted, any eventual market bottom may need to develop without the steady institutional buying that underpinned Bitcoin’s performance over the past two years, at least until that demand returns.

Despite the lack of strong buying interest, options markets remain remarkably subdued. Implied volatility for bullish price moves has fallen to an all-time low, while downside volatility remains near typical levels, suggesting traders are assigning relatively low probabilities to both significant rallies and sharp declines.

Historically, periods of extremely compressed volatility have often preceded major breakouts. However, Glassnode cautioned that the current market environment lacks the robust demand backdrop that supported previous recoveries, making a sustained rebound less certain.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $64,900, up roughly 1% over the previous 24 hours.

Bitcoin Gains 9% in July as Crypto Shows Resilience Amid AI-Driven Market Selloff

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this week, but the bigger story for investors was the continued weakness in AI-related equities. While major technology stocks and semiconductor names extended their declines, Bitcoin quietly advanced around 9% during July, raising questions about whether cryptocurrencies could lead the next market recovery.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin has remained resilient, holding near $64,000 through the Fed meeting and posting a 9% gain for the month.
• AI-focused equities are undergoing a significant deleveraging phase, with the Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) recording its steepest one-day decline since April 2025.
• South Korea’s KOSPI index plunged roughly 16% over two sessions, triggering consecutive circuit breakers for the first time in the exchange’s history.
• Investors are becoming increasingly skeptical of massive AI-related spending without clear evidence of profitable returns.
• Regulatory progress in the U.S. crypto market, including support for the CLARITY Act, is providing an additional tailwind for digital assets.

Fed Decision Highlights Pressure on AI Stocks

Although the Federal Open Market Committee opted to keep rates unchanged, markets reacted negatively to the broader policy outlook. Expectations for another rate increase strengthened, with CME FedWatch indicating a 65.1% probability of a hike at the September meeting.

The hawkish backdrop weighed heavily on AI-related stocks. Nvidia lost more than 10% during the week, while investors increasingly questioned whether the enormous capital expenditures being made across the AI ecosystem would translate into sustainable earnings growth.

Earnings Reveal a Shift in Investor Priorities

The recent earnings season highlighted a clear distinction between companies demonstrating tangible AI-driven revenue growth and those merely increasing investment.

The Magnificent Seven ETF fell 4.7% following earnings reports from Alphabet and Tesla, marking its worst session since April 2025. Year-to-date, the ETF remains in negative territory despite strong gains across the broader S&P 500.

Among the major technology companies:

• Alphabet reported second-quarter capital expenditures of $44.9 billion and raised its full-year spending outlook to $195–205 billion. Investors responded negatively as heavy investment pushed free cash flow into negative territory, sending shares down 7%.
• Tesla missed earnings expectations and generated negative free cash flow of $1.1 billion. The stock declined roughly 20% during the week as investors grew less willing to pay for long-term AI and robotics ambitions without near-term profitability.
• Meta delivered strong revenue growth but reported lower net income and shrinking free cash flow. Shares fell after management increased spending guidance despite declining profitability.
• Microsoft stood out as the exception. Revenue exceeded expectations, Azure growth accelerated to 43%, and investors rewarded the company for demonstrating measurable AI monetization. Shares rose sharply after earnings.

The message from the market was straightforward: spending alone is no longer enough. Investors now want proof that AI investments can generate meaningful returns.

South Korea Signals Cracks in AI Valuations

The correction has not been limited to U.S. markets.

South Korea’s KOSPI index suffered its worst two-day decline on record, falling approximately 16% and triggering back-to-back trading halts. The selloff was driven largely by semiconductor weakness.

SK Hynix, despite reporting record operating profit and nearly sixfold earnings growth, still disappointed investors by narrowly missing analyst forecasts. The stock plunged almost 19% intraday.

The reaction underscored growing concerns that AI-related valuations may have become detached from realistic earnings expectations. Even exceptional profit growth is no longer guaranteeing positive market reactions.

Why Crypto May Recover Faster

In contrast to equities, Bitcoin has shown relative stability throughout the recent market turbulence.

While AI stocks continue to unwind, Bitcoin remains about 9% higher for July and has largely held key support levels. One explanation is that cryptocurrencies experienced their correction earlier. Bitcoin had already fallen more than 20% in June and remains roughly one-third below its recent highs.

Leverage dynamics also differ significantly.

AI-related equities benefited from a year of aggressive positioning through leveraged ETFs, margin borrowing, and expanding valuations. As sentiment turns, those positions are being unwound rapidly, amplifying downside volatility.

Crypto markets, by comparison, routinely flush excess leverage through liquidations. Significant ETF outflows and price declines during May and June already removed much of the speculative excess from the market. As a result, positioning appears cleaner and less vulnerable to forced selling.

Regulatory Momentum Supports the Crypto Narrative

Fundamentals are also improving.

On July 28, SEC Chair Paul Atkins expressed support for congressional efforts to advance the CLARITY Act and indicated the agency’s willingness to provide technical assistance. If enacted, the legislation would establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States.

This combination of reduced leverage, improving regulation, and an earlier correction strengthens the argument that crypto may be better positioned than AI equities for the next phase of recovery.

Looking Ahead

Several economic releases could shape market sentiment in the coming week:

• August 3: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
• August 5: U.S. ISM Services PMI
• August 7: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report
• Ongoing developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy markets

The labor market remains a critical variable. A second consecutive weak payroll report could reduce expectations for further rate hikes, while stronger employment data would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance.

Oil prices remain the most significant macro risk. Elevated energy costs continue to threaten inflation progress, and a combination of rising oil prices and stronger-than-expected employment data would likely create a challenging environment for risk assets across both equities and crypto markets.

Bitcoin’s recent decline appears to have been driven primarily by excessive leverage being flushed out of the market rather than any deterioration in the cryptocurrency’s underlying fundamentals.

Despite the sharp price drop, key on-chain metrics and broader market indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains largely intact. Network activity, investor participation, and overall demand have not shown signs of significant weakness. Instead, the selloff was largely triggered by an unwinding of heavily leveraged positions.

As Bitcoin fell below critical support levels, a wave of forced liquidations swept through the derivatives market. Leveraged long positions were automatically closed, creating additional selling pressure and accelerating the decline. This type of cascading liquidation is common in highly leveraged markets and often amplifies price movements beyond what fundamentals alone would justify.

Data from the derivatives market indicates that leveraged traders absorbed the bulk of the losses. This suggests that the correction was more technical in nature than a reaction to negative developments affecting Bitcoin’s intrinsic value or long-term adoption prospects.

Historically, large liquidation events have served as a market reset, removing excessive speculation and reducing leverage to healthier levels. Once this process is complete, prices tend to stabilize and become more closely aligned with actual supply-and-demand dynamics.

As a result, the recent downturn may be better viewed as a leverage-driven correction rather than a sign of weakening fundamentals. While short-term volatility remains elevated, the broader foundation supporting Bitcoin appears largely unchanged.

• Bitcoin continues to trade above its 50-day EMA at $65,089 on Monday, extending its rally with a fourth straight week of gains.
• Ethereum has secured a close above the 100-day EMA at $1,934, reinforcing a bullish technical outlook.
• XRP remains steady around $1.10, with momentum indicators suggesting a modest bullish bias.

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) kicked off the week on solid footing after posting weekly gains of more than 1%, 4%, and 1%, respectively. BTC secured its fourth consecutive weekly advance by reclaiming a key technical level, ETH reinforced its bullish outlook with a close above its 100-day EMA, while XRP remained stable near $1.10 despite continuing to trade below major long-term moving averages.

Bitcoin outlook: Bulls regain momentum above the 50-day EMA

Bitcoin is trading around $65,199 on Monday, maintaining a cautiously bullish tone after reclaiming its 50-day EMA at $65,089. While this suggests the recent volatility may be easing, BTC still faces notable resistance from the 100-day EMA at $67,787 and the 200-day EMA near $73,848.

Technical indicators paint a mixed but constructive picture. The RSI hovers around 54, reflecting moderate buying interest rather than overheated momentum, while the MACD remains positive despite gradually losing strength, implying that further gains could encounter resistance.

If buyers remain in control, Bitcoin’s first upside target lies at the 100-day EMA near $67,787, followed by the 200-day EMA around $73,848. A sustained breakout could open the path toward the major horizontal resistance at $84,410.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 50-day EMA around $65,088, followed by a stronger horizontal support zone at $64,004. A decisive break below this region would weaken the current recovery and increase the risk of a deeper corrective move.

Ethereum outlook: Break above the 100-day EMA strengthens bullish case

Ethereum trades near $1,945 after climbing more than 4% last week, improving its short-term technical outlook. ETH now holds above both its 50-day EMA near $1,841 and 100-day EMA around $1,934, signaling that buyers have regained control of the medium-term trend.

Momentum indicators continue to support the positive outlook. The RSI stands near 62, indicating healthy bullish momentum without reaching overbought conditions, while the MACD remains in positive territory, reinforcing the likelihood of additional upside as long as price stays above its reclaimed moving averages.

The first upside hurdle is the psychological $2,000 level, followed by the 200-day EMA near $2,158, which represents a more significant resistance zone.

On the downside, initial support sits at the 100-day EMA around $1,934, with stronger support at the 50-day EMA near $1,841. A break below these levels would shift attention toward the broader support area near $1,385.

XRP outlook: Stabilizes near $1.10 but remains below key moving averages

XRP trades around $1.10 on Monday, showing signs of stabilization after last week’s gains. However, the token continues to trade below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, which remain clustered between $1.14 and $1.43, keeping the broader technical outlook cautious.

Although the overall trend remains corrective, momentum indicators hint at improving conditions. The RSI sits close to the neutral 50 level at 49, while the MACD remains slightly positive, suggesting buyers are attempting to build momentum despite persistent overhead resistance.

The first resistance level is the 50-day EMA near $1.13, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.22 and the horizontal barrier at $1.30. Beyond these, the 200-day EMA around $1.43 and the previous swing high near $1.90 represent stronger resistance levels.

On the downside, $1.00 remains the key psychological and technical support. A break below this level would likely invite renewed selling pressure and extend XRP’s broader corrective phase.

• Bitcoin approaches its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65,142, with a decisive close above the level signaling potential for further upside.
• Ethereum finishes above the $1,800 resistance mark, reinforcing expectations for a sustained recovery.
• XRP trades around $1.15 after rebounding by more than 4% in the previous session, indicating improving bullish momentum.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP edge higher as recovery momentum builds

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) trade with modest gains on Wednesday as risk appetite returns to the cryptocurrency market. BTC is approaching its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), ETH has reclaimed the $1,800 resistance level, and XRP is holding firmly above an important support zone. If these technical levels remain intact, the three leading cryptocurrencies could extend their recovery in the sessions ahead.

Bitcoin eyes further upside if it breaks above the 50-day EMA

Bitcoin is trading around $64,510 on Wednesday after rallying more than 4% and closing above the $64,000 resistance level in the previous session. Although the rebound has improved short-term sentiment, BTC continues to trade below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, located at $65,142, $68,524, and $74,562, respectively. Remaining beneath these key moving averages indicates that the broader trend still favors the downside, despite signs of stabilizing momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 54, reflecting modest bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, suggesting selling pressure may continue to ease even if a stronger bullish reversal has yet to emerge.

On the downside, $64,004 serves as the first support level, where buyers could step in to protect the recent recovery.

To the upside, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at its 50-day EMA near $65,142, followed by the 100-day EMA at $68,524 and the 200-day EMA around $74,562. A sustained move above these key dynamic resistance levels would improve the medium-term outlook and weaken the prevailing bearish trend. Beyond them, the next major obstacle lies at the previous horizontal resistance near $84,410.

Ethereum holds above key resistance at $1,800

Ethereum (ETH) trades around $1,866 on Wednesday after closing above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,805 in the previous session, reinforcing the near-term bullish outlook. However, the second-largest cryptocurrency remains below its 100-day EMA at $1,945 and 200-day EMA at $2,193, indicating that the broader trend has yet to turn decisively positive.

The 50-day EMA is now acting as immediate support, suggesting buyers are defending the recent breakout. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 61, reflecting healthy bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also remains constructive, with the MACD line above its signal line and a positive histogram, pointing to strengthening upside momentum despite the presence of key overhead resistance.

On the upside, Ethereum’s next resistance is located at the 100-day EMA near $1,945, followed by the psychologically important $2,000 level. Beyond that, the 200-day EMA around $2,193 represents a major hurdle that bulls must overcome to confirm a broader trend reversal.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA around $1,805, while a stronger long-term support level lies near $1,385, where buyers could re-emerge if the current recovery loses momentum.

XRP rebounds from channel support but faces strong overhead resistance

XRP trades around $1.099 on Wednesday after bouncing 4% in the previous session from support at the upper boundary of its descending channel. While the rebound has improved short-term sentiment, the token remains below its key moving averages, keeping the broader outlook tilted to the downside.

XRP continues to trade beneath the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.157, the 100-day EMA at $1.254, and the 200-day EMA at $1.461. Remaining below these major trend indicators suggests that bearish pressure is still in control despite the recent recovery.

Momentum indicators paint a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47, just below the neutral 50 level, indicating that bullish momentum is beginning to improve but has yet to gain conviction. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly positive, signaling stabilizing momentum without confirming a sustained bullish reversal.

On the downside, immediate support is located near $1.040, where the lower boundary of the descending parallel channel may attract renewed buying interest and help preserve the recent recovery.

To the upside, XRP faces its first resistance at the 50-day EMA around $1.157, followed by the 100-day EMA near $1.254 and the $1.300 horizontal resistance level. Beyond these, the 200-day EMA at $1.461 and the longer-term resistance around $1.900 represent significant barriers. Until XRP reclaims the 50-day EMA, any near-term gains are likely to be viewed as corrective moves within the prevailing bearish trend.

• Investors have continued to exit positions amid market weakness, realizing approximately $667 million in losses over the last three days.
• Risk reduction by institutional investors in the United States remains evident, with US spot Ethereum ETFs recording net outflows for 14 straight trading days.
• Although ETH has reclaimed the $2,000 mark, buying momentum remains subdued, suggesting that the recovery lacks strong conviction.

Following Ethereum’s (ETH) drop toward the key psychological support level of $2,000 in recent days, investors have increasingly realized losses.

Market participants have locked in approximately $667 million in losses over the past three days, marking the highest level of loss realization since early May.

This trend suggests that investors are continuing to sell amid market weakness, a sign of deteriorating sentiment that could increase the risk of further downside pressure on ETH prices.

Notably, selling pressure intensified after buyers were unable to drive Ethereum above the realized price, or average on-chain cost basis, of retail investors. This level has acted as a major resistance zone over the past three months, highlighting a recurring pattern in which retail holders tend to sell when prices approach their break-even point. As a result, the failure to break above this threshold has reinforced bearish sentiment and contributed to the recent wave of selling.

At the same time, network activity has continued to decline, with the number of active addresses nearing levels last recorded in early May. More significantly, this metric has fallen by nearly 50% since February, indicating a sharp slowdown in on-chain participation and weakening user engagement across the leading Layer 1 blockchain.

From a regional perspective, selling pressure has been largely driven by US investors, who continue to play a key role in influencing overall market sentiment. This trend is reflected in the Coinbase Premium Index—a gauge of US investor demand and sentiment—which has been on a steady decline since late April, signaling weakening buying interest and growing caution among American market participants.

Adding to the bearish outlook, US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded their 14th consecutive day of net outflows, underscoring a persistent risk-off stance among institutional investors in the United States.

One notable exception has been BitMine, which has continued to accumulate Ethereum, increasing its holdings to 5.39 million ETH.

In the derivatives market, open interest has kept rising and reached a new record high of more than 16 million contracts during the week, while funding rates have remained in positive territory. Despite these seemingly bullish signals, ETH prices have continued to decline, suggesting that a significant portion of the growing open interest may be coming from newly opened short positions. At the same time, some bullish traders appear to be either buying the dip or maintaining losing long positions, creating a divergence between derivatives activity and spot market performance. This combination points to growing speculative pressure and increases the likelihood of further volatility in the near term.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH Reclaims $2,000, but Upside Momentum Remains Limited

On the daily timeframe, Ethereum continues to exhibit a bearish short-term outlook, with the price trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). These indicators are clustered between $2,122 and $2,281, creating a strong resistance zone that is likely to limit any recovery attempts.

Momentum indicators suggest selling pressure is easing but remain far from signaling a bullish reversal. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 34, slightly above oversold levels, while the Stochastic Oscillator is gradually rebounding after reaching deeply oversold conditions.

On the downside, Ethereum’s first key support lies near $2,018. A decisive move below this level could open the door for a decline toward the next demand area around $1,909. If bearish pressure intensifies, additional support levels can be found near $1,741, followed by $1,524 and $1,404.

On the upside, Ethereum faces immediate resistance around $2,107, followed by the 20-day EMA at $2,122 and the 50-day EMA near $2,186. A decisive and sustained break above these levels would help reduce the current bearish bias and signal improving market sentiment.

Should buyers regain control, the next upside targets are located near $2,211, followed by the 100-day EMA at $2,280. Beyond that, ETH could challenge stronger resistance zones at $2,388, $2,746, and eventually $3,411, provided bullish momentum continues to build.

• Bitcoin retreats toward $76,000 as escalating Middle East tensions intensify following US “self-defense” strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.
• Ethereum falls below $2,100, mirroring a broader risk-off mood even as Iranian negotiators gather in Qatar to finalize the US-Iran memorandum of understanding.
• XRP deepens its decline below $1.35 while continuing to hold above the SuperTrend indicator’s dynamic support around $1.32.

Cryptocurrency markets remain under pressure on Tuesday, with Bitcoin (BTC) pulling back toward the crucial $76,000 support area as risk-off sentiment persists. Ethereum (ETH) trades below the $2,100 mark, while Ripple (XRP) continues to consolidate beneath $1.35 after encountering resistance near $1.37.

Military tensions cloud US-Iran peace prospects

The weakness across global financial markets follows US military strikes launched Monday against targets in southern Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. According to a statement from US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins, the operations were carried out in “self-defense” and aimed at “protecting US troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.”

The consequences of the latest strikes for a potential US-Iran peace agreement remain uncertain. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated on Tuesday that the country reserves the “legitimate and definite” right to respond to any violations of a ceasefire by the United States, according to BBC reports.

Despite rising tensions, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that a diplomatic resolution is still achievable, referencing Tuesday’s planned talks in Doha involving Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Qatar’s Prime Minister. The discussions are expected to focus on finalizing the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Washington and Tehran.

“We’ll see if we can make progress. There’s still a lot of back-and-forth over the wording in the initial document, so it may take a few more days,” Rubio told reporters during a visit to India.

Meanwhile, sentiment in the crypto market remains fragile. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index edged up to 34 on Tuesday from 30 a day earlier, but it still sits firmly in Fear territory. Investors continue to assess the broader economic risks stemming from the conflict, particularly as inflationary pressures in the United States remain elevated.

Price analysis: Bitcoin remains under pressure as downside risks persist

Bitcoin is trading around $76,668, maintaining a bearish short-term outlook as the price continues to stay below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are positioned between approximately $76,784 and $81,285.

The alignment of these short- and long-term EMAs above the current market price indicates that upward moves are facing strong resistance pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral 50 level on the daily chart, signaling weakening bullish momentum rather than deeply oversold conditions.

On the upside, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA near $76,784, followed closely by the 100-day EMA around $76,880. A stronger resistance zone is located at the 200-day EMA near $81,285. To the downside, the key structural support remains the ascending trend line around $70,500. A daily close below this level could intensify bearish momentum and trigger a deeper correction.

Altcoins technical outlook: Ethereum and XRP remain under selling pressure

Ethereum is trading near $2,095 and continues to show a bearish short-term structure as the price stays below major moving averages. The 50-day EMA at $2,217, the 100-day EMA at $2,294, and the 200-day EMA at $2,516 are acting as layered dynamic resistance levels, indicating that recovery attempts may remain limited while ETH trades beneath this zone.

Momentum indicators also reflect ongoing weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the upper-30 range on the daily chart, pointing to subdued buying strength, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram stays in negative territory, suggesting bearish pressure continues to dominate despite intermittent rebounds.

On the downside, Ethereum’s immediate support is located around the ascending trendline near $2,074, where buyers could attempt to defend the price during pullbacks. A decisive break below this level would likely expose ETH to deeper losses and further strengthen the prevailing bearish structure.

To the upside, a move back above the 50-day EMA at $2,217 would provide the first signal that bearish pressure is easing. Additional resistance levels are seen at the 100-day EMA near $2,294 and the 200-day EMA around $2,516. Ethereum bulls would need to reclaim these key zones to confirm a more sustainable bullish reversal.

Meanwhile, XRP is trading near $1.34 and continues to maintain a bearish near-term outlook as the token remains below the 50-day EMA near $1.40, the 100-day EMA at $1.47, and the 200-day EMA at $1.68. Weak momentum indicators further support the downside bias, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 40 on the daily chart and the MACD histogram remaining in negative territory. This suggests that recovery attempts are likely to encounter selling pressure while the major moving averages continue to cap upward momentum.

On the upside, XRP faces initial resistance at the 50-day EMA around $1.40, followed by a stronger hurdle at the 100-day EMA near $1.47. The 200-day EMA at $1.68 represents a major long-term resistance zone and continues to act as the broader bearish ceiling unless successfully reclaimed.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the SuperTrend indicator near $1.33. A decisive move below this level could trigger a deeper correction and intensify bearish momentum. However, as long as XRP remains above the SuperTrend support, the token is likely to continue consolidating beneath the cluster of major moving averages.