Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Strategy Keeps Selling, Yet the Market Shrugs It Off

• Bitcoin staged a modest recovery into Friday, trading near the $64,000 mark while continuing to find support around its 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA).
• Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have remained mixed throughout the week, reflecting a cautious market sentiment as investors assess the impact of Strategy’s latest Bitcoin sale.
• Although geopolitical tensions have eased slightly, lingering uncertainty continues to weigh on risk appetite, limiting the cryptocurrency’s potential for stronger gains.

Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Resilient Above $64,000 Despite Strategy Sale and Geopolitical Headwinds

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above $64,000 on Friday, extending a modest recovery while maintaining support above a key technical zone throughout the week. Mixed spot Bitcoin ETF flows through Thursday reflected cautious institutional sentiment, while the market largely absorbed the impact of Strategy’s recent BTC sale, underscoring Bitcoin’s strong liquidity and resilience. Although easing tensions between the US and Iran helped improve risk appetite late in the week, ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East continued to limit the cryptocurrency’s upside potential.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Continues to Influence Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment remained fragile throughout the week as developments in the Middle East shaped broader risk appetite. Concerns initially rose after Iran announced plans to impose new service charges on vessels transiting a strategically important shipping route, arguing that the fees were intended to cover security, monitoring, and environmental protection costs rather than serve as transit tolls.

Market anxiety intensified after an oil tanker was struck while moving through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a fresh round of US military strikes against Iranian targets. Iran responded with attacks on US military assets in Bahrain and Kuwait, while comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting that a ceasefire agreement with Iran had effectively ended added to uncertainty across financial markets.

Sentiment improved later in the week after Trump indicated that Iran had reached out seeking negotiations, raising hopes for a potential easing of tensions. The improvement helped Bitcoin erase earlier losses and advance toward the $64,000 level by Friday. Nevertheless, the geopolitical backdrop remains fragile, and any renewed escalation between the US and Iran could trigger fresh selling pressure across risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Sale Highlights Market Depth

On Monday, Strategy disclosed the sale of 3,588 BTC worth approximately $216 million to fund dividend payments related to its Digital Credit program. While the announcement initially contributed to a roughly 4% decline in Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency quickly recovered and ended the session with modest gains, suggesting the market absorbed the selling pressure effectively.

According to Crypto Finance, transactions of this scale are typically conducted through over-the-counter (OTC) channels and are often hedged well before becoming public knowledge. As a result, much of the market impact is generally priced in before official disclosure.

The report also emphasized that Bitcoin’s growing liquidity enables it to handle large transactions without causing prolonged price disruptions, helping explain the brief nature of the selloff.

Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix Exchange, noted that Strategy’s sale demonstrated the maturity of the Bitcoin treasury model rather than undermining it. In his view, selling a small portion of holdings showed that Bitcoin can increasingly function as a liquid corporate treasury asset.

Outlook Remains Cautiously Bearish

Despite Bitcoin’s resilience, Chen remains cautiously bearish in the near term. He points to elevated US Treasury yields, stronger return opportunities in equities, continued investor interest in AI-related ventures and IPOs, and still-modest institutional inflows despite some improvement in spot Bitcoin ETF demand.

Looking ahead, Chen believes Bitcoin’s direction will depend more on whether global investors increase allocations to risk assets than on Strategy’s transaction itself. He expects BTC to remain range-bound with a slight downside bias as competition for global liquidity remains intense and new capital inflows remain limited.

For the near term, Chen identifies $68,500 as a key resistance level and $62,000 as major support. Unless macroeconomic conditions improve meaningfully, he expects Bitcoin to end the month slightly below current levels.

Institutional Investors Remain Undecided

Institutional interest showed tentative signs of recovery early this week after several consecutive weeks of net outflows. However, momentum faded later in the week as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded two sessions of withdrawals. According to SoSoValue data, net inflows still stood at $106.96 million through Thursday, reflecting a modest improvement in overall demand.

If Friday’s ETF flows finish in positive territory, Bitcoin could end an eight-week streak of persistent outflows, potentially signaling a shift in institutional sentiment. While the data suggests investors are becoming more willing to re-enter the market, the mixed flow pattern highlights ongoing caution. Nevertheless, a sustained return of institutional capital could provide additional support for Bitcoin prices in the weeks ahead.

Total Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow daily chart. Source: SoSoValue

Total Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow weekly chart. Source: SoSoValue

Cautious Fed Outlook Keeps Bitcoin Range-Bound

On the macroeconomic front, attention centered on the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 16–17. The report showed that Federal Reserve policymakers remain divided on the future path of interest rates, with concerns about inflation persisting even as worries surrounding the labor market have eased somewhat.

Following the release of the minutes, market expectations shifted slightly, with CME FedWatch data indicating that traders are pricing in approximately a 21.9% probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s July meeting. The prospect of interest rates remaining elevated for longer has encouraged a cautious stance among investors.

As a result, demand for risk-sensitive assets has remained subdued, with many market participants opting to stay on the sidelines until there is greater clarity on the Fed’s policy direction. This cautious macroeconomic backdrop has contributed to Bitcoin’s largely sideways price action throughout the week.

Technical Outlook: Premature to Confirm a Market Bottom

Bitcoin continued its gradual recovery on Friday, reclaiming the $64,000 level after posting a 6.84% gain the previous week. The cryptocurrency is currently finding support near its 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62,874, having successfully rebounded from a long-term ascending trendline that has connected major lows since January 2023.

Should the 200-week SMA continue to hold as a support level, Bitcoin could build on its recent strength and target the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $65,520, measured from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 all-time high of $126,199.

Technical indicators on the weekly chart point to improving, though still fragile, momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains subdued near 39 but is stabilizing, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative yet continues to recover, indicating that bearish momentum is gradually fading.

Despite these encouraging signs, it remains too early to declare that Bitcoin has established a definitive bottom. A decisive break below the 200-week SMA at $62,874 would weaken the bullish recovery scenario and could open the door for a deeper pullback toward the long-term ascending trendline support near $58,000.

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to trade with a cautious bias, remaining below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). These key moving averages remain well above current prices and continue to reinforce the broader medium-term downtrend.

BTC is currently hovering just above an important horizontal support area near $64,004. While momentum indicators have improved, they have yet to signal a decisive bullish breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding around 53, indicating modest buying strength, while the MACD remains above the zero line, reflecting recovering bullish momentum.

On the upside, the first significant obstacle lies at the 50-day EMA around $65,413. Additional resistance levels are located near the 100-day EMA at $69,000 and the 200-day EMA at $75,029. Beyond these levels, a major horizontal resistance zone around $84,410 could further limit advances.

On the downside, immediate support remains at $64,004. A sustained move below this level would increase bearish pressure and could pave the way for a decline toward the $60,000 psychological support zone, which may attract renewed buying interest.