THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN

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  • Bitcoin Enters a High-Risk Zone, Hinting at Growing Underlying Market Stress

    According to Swissblock, Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a high-risk zone as institutional demand continues to weaken and spot Bitcoin ETFs record rising outflows. The growing selling pressure comes amid broader market uncertainty, pushing BTC into a more vulnerable position.

    Against this backdrop, Bitcoin price has fallen toward the $76,000 level following the latest U.S. military strike on Iran. Several key market indicators are now flashing warning signals as BTC struggles to regain momentum above the $78,000 resistance area.

    Swissblock’s Risk Index Signals Rising Market Stress

    Swissblock has warned that Bitcoin is slipping further into a high-risk zone, with its proprietary risk index highlighting increasing pressure across the broader crypto market. According to the firm, bullish momentum is fading rapidly, while institutional demand — including purchases from major players such as Strategy — has largely stalled.

    At the same time, Bitcoin’s volatility remains elevated, adding to concerns over market stability. Swissblock noted that BTC is now entering a fragile phase that could be vulnerable to sharp and sudden price declines. The firm also emphasized that weakening institutional participation and deteriorating investor confidence are contributing to the growing downside risk.

    Swissblock’s Risk Index

    Analysts also noted that current market conditions differ sharply from the strong rally seen earlier this year. At that time, steady spot Bitcoin ETF inflows helped fuel bullish momentum and supported higher prices. Now, however, the market is witnessing the opposite trend, with persistent outflows weighing on sentiment and weakening demand. As a result, caution has grown among both short-term traders and long-term Bitcoin holders.

    Glassnode Reports Continued ETF Outflows

    On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has reported persistent outflows from Bitcoin investment products, signaling weakening institutional appetite. According to the firm, spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced several consecutive days of sizable withdrawals, adding further pressure to the broader crypto market.

    Spot Bitcoin ETFs Flows

    Glassnode noted that institutional demand for Bitcoin has weakened significantly compared with previous months, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording near-daily outflows over the past two weeks. Investors appear to be reducing their exposure as global financial markets become increasingly uncertain and volatile.

    These persistent ETF outflows are particularly important because institutional inflows were a major driver behind Bitcoin’s powerful rally earlier this year. Strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs helped BTC climb to fresh highs, reinforcing bullish market sentiment. However, if ETF demand continues to deteriorate, analysts warn that Bitcoin could face additional selling pressure in the near term.

    Bitcoin Slides After U.S. Strikes on Iran

    The crypto market came under renewed pressure this week as escalating geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Bitcoin (BTC) declined amid expectations and subsequent reports of U.S. military strikes targeting Iranian assets in the Middle East. As global risk appetite deteriorated, investors shifted capital toward traditional safe-haven assets, triggering fresh selling across risk-sensitive markets.

    Geopolitical uncertainty often sparks sharp reactions in the cryptocurrency market, and the latest developments have intensified caution among traders. With investors reducing exposure to risk assets such as Bitcoin, BTC price came under significant pressure and moved lower as market uncertainty deepened.

    Bitcoin Struggles to Reclaim $78,000

    Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure below the key $78,000 resistance zone, with multiple recovery attempts failing throughout the week. Each time BTC approached higher levels, sellers quickly regained control as market sentiment weakened amid reports of U.S. military strikes in the Middle East.

    The continued risk-off mood has limited bullish momentum, keeping Bitcoin trapped in a fragile technical position. According to CoinMarketCap, BTC recently fell toward the $76,500 area as traders reacted to rising geopolitical uncertainty and persistent ETF outflows.

    Bitcoin Price Chart

    For Bitcoin to regain bullish momentum, analysts believe stronger institutional buying will be necessary to offset the recent wave of ETF outflows and weakening market sentiment. Without renewed demand from large investors, BTC could continue trading sideways or extend its decline in the near term.

    Market watchers also note that Bitcoin’s support in the mid-$75,000 region remains critical for short-term price stability. A sustained break below that area could trigger additional downside pressure, while holding above it may help BTC stabilize as traders assess broader macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

    Technical Indicators Continue Signaling Bitcoin Weakness

    Technical indicators currently suggest that bearish pressure remains dominant for Bitcoin (BTC). Data from Investing.com shows that most major moving averages are still flashing “Strong Sell” signals, reflecting weak market sentiment and continued downside momentum.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also remains below neutral territory, indicating that bullish momentum has yet to recover. Meanwhile, MACD indicators continue to generate sell signals, reinforcing the negative short-term outlook for BTC.

    Both short-term and long-term moving averages continue to point toward further downside risk, while several Bitcoin oscillators are gradually moving into oversold territory. Analysts believe stronger buying activity from Bitcoin bulls will be needed to stabilize the market and prevent BTC price from extending its decline further.

  • Is This Bitcoin’s Final Pullback? Here’s What Capital Flows Suggest

    Bitcoin has retreated from $82K to $76K over the past two weeks, not in the form of a sharp capitulation event, but through a gradual and persistent decline. At the same time, both ETF inflows and derivatives leverage have begun to weaken in tandem, prompting a key question: where is capital rotating next? This report tracks the outflows, explores the underlying catalysts, and analyzes the technical outlook for BTC’s next potential move.

    Current Market Position

    Bitcoin recently fell toward the $76K region, marking an approximate 7.5% decline from the early-May local peak near $82K. The market has now posted five consecutive daily red candles, reinforcing the impression of a slow but steady deterioration in price action rather than panic-driven selling.

    Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index stood at 40 on May 20, hovering at the threshold between neutral sentiment and fear. While the market has not yet entered extreme fear territory, investor confidence is clearly softening as downside momentum continues to build.

    Fear and Greed Index Chart

    The clearest warning sign this week emerged from ETF flows:

    On May 18, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $649 million in net outflows, marking the third-largest single-day withdrawal of 2026. Over the May 11–15 trading week, cumulative outflows surpassed $1 billion, representing the largest weekly capital exodus since February.

    Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs continued to weaken as well, extending their streak of net outflows to six consecutive trading sessions.

    Total BTC Spot ETF Inflow

    Where Is the Capital Rotating?

    The most likely destination is equities. On May 14, the S&P 500 climbed above 7,500 for the first time, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed the 50,000 mark, fueled largely by strong megacap technology earnings. Roughly 84% of S&P 500 companies exceeded Q1 earnings expectations, reinforcing investor appetite for traditional risk assets.

    At the same time, hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data — with CPI at 3.8% and PPI at 6% — forced markets to reassess the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The shift in expectations contributed to broader risk-off positioning across crypto markets.

    In derivatives, Bitcoin open interest remains elevated at roughly $56.5 billion. The sharp decline between May 13–14 triggered a wave of long liquidations, with additional leverage flushes continuing through May 18–19. While some excess positioning has already been cleared, persistently high open interest suggests the deleveraging process may not be over yet.

    Cryptocurrency Liquidation History Chart

    Bitcoin perpetual funding rates have remained negative since early March, marking the longest sustained period of negative funding since 2023. This indicates that short positions have dominated the market for months, with bearish traders consistently paying funding fees to maintain exposure.

    At the same time, repeated waves of long liquidations have continued to erode buy-side confidence. When combined with persistent ETF outflows, the picture becomes increasingly clear: both on-chain liquidity and off-chain institutional capital are weakening simultaneously.

    That said, not all negative funding should be interpreted as outright bearish speculation. A significant portion likely reflects institutional hedging activity, including hedge fund redemptions, MicroStrategy arbitrage structures, and mining firms hedging exposure while pivoting toward AI infrastructure strategies. Still, the more crowded short positioning becomes, the greater the probability of a sharp and aggressive short-covering unwind once market sentiment reverses.

    What Is Driving the Decline?

    Bitcoin’s recent weakness is not being caused by a single catalyst, but rather by the convergence of several reinforcing forces acting simultaneously across macro, institutional, and derivatives markets.

    BTC Sell-Off Drivers

    ETF outflows remain the dominant driver behind the current decline. More than $1 billion exited spot Bitcoin ETFs during mid-May, including a massive $649 million single-day withdrawal, signaling that institutional de-risking is accelerating. A large portion of ETF holders are now sitting below their average entry prices, increasing the risk of additional redemption pressure if sentiment continues to weaken.

    Geopolitical uncertainty is another major overhang. President Donald Trump’s May 18 reversal on potential Iran strike rhetoric has kept binary geopolitical risk elevated, weighing broadly on global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

    Structural pressure from miners is also intensifying. Bitcoin mining difficulty has declined 10.7% year-to-date following six consecutive negative difficulty adjustments. Publicly listed mining companies collectively sold a record 32,000 BTC during Q1 — exceeding their total sales throughout all of 2025. At the same time, many miners are redirecting capital toward AI infrastructure initiatives, creating additional incentives to liquidate holdings. The estimated production-cost zone for next-generation S21 miners, roughly between $69K and $74K, is increasingly viewed as a critical physical support range. A sustained move below that band would likely trigger further difficulty reductions and eventually relieve some sell-side pressure.

    From a cycle perspective, bears still have a strong macro argument. The historical halving-to-cycle-top structure appears intact once again: the April 2024 halving was followed by a peak near $126K in October 2025, roughly 18 months later. However, the current maximum drawdown of approximately 52% remains relatively shallow compared with previous bear-market declines of 77%–87%, leading cycle-focused analysts to argue that the true capitulation phase may not have occurred yet.

    On-chain data, however, continues to provide the clearest bullish counterargument. Whale wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC accumulated approximately 270,000 BTC over a 30-day period through late April, marking the largest monthly accumulation since 2013. Meanwhile, exchange reserves have fallen to a seven-year low near 2.2 million BTC, suggesting long-term holders are aggressively absorbing the supply being sold by leveraged traders and weaker hands.

    5-BTC Spot Avg. Order Size

    Key Levels to Watch

    Rather than assigning fixed probabilities to bullish or bearish outcomes, a more practical framework is to focus on the technical levels that will determine how this correction ultimately resolves.

    Looking Higher: The $82K–$85K Resistance Zone

    The 200-day moving average is currently positioned around the $82K–$82.5K range. Last week, Bitcoin climbed to roughly $82.4K before facing an immediate rejection, reinforcing the 200 DMA as a key resistance level.

    Further strengthening this resistance is an unfilled CME futures gap from early February, which extends between approximately $80K and $85K. Although last week’s rally toward $82K managed to partially close the gap, a full fill would require sustained bullish momentum through an area where the 200 DMA aligns with significant overhead supply.

    Bitcoin needs to break back above $84K and maintain support there to validate a meaningful trend reversal. Until that happens, any upward move below that level is likely to be viewed as a sell-the-rally opportunity.

    BTC/USD Price Chart

    Looking Down: Two Key Support Zones Before a Deeper Breakdown

    If current levels fail to hold, the first major area of support comes from the weekly Bollinger Band lower boundary, which is currently near $71K. A move into this zone would imply roughly a 7% drop from current prices and would coincide with the S21 miner shutdown range of $69K–$74K, where mining difficulty adjustments could begin easing sell-side pressure.

    Beneath that lies the 200-week moving average (200 WMA), estimated around $63K–$65K, which remains a critical long-term structural support level. A revisit of this area would create a textbook H1 2026 double-bottom formation alongside February’s $59.9K low.

    If Bitcoin loses the $71K support region, the next significant floor sits at the 200 WMA between $63K and $65K. Holding that zone would strengthen the double-bottom thesis and could pave the way for the next major upward move. However, a decisive break below it would signal a far more bearish downside scenario.

  • Gold vs Crypto in 2026: Are traders seeking safety or chasing higher returns?

    Modern portfolios are no longer forced to choose between stability and rapid growth — investors now expect both.

    In mid-January, gold climbed above 4,600 USD per ounce while bitcoin slipped below 92,000 USD, remaining volatile yet still resilient on a year-to-date basis. Both assets continue to attract capital. While they are often portrayed as opposing trades, the reality is becoming more complex. Investors are no longer choosing between gold and crypto — they are allocating to both. The key question is no longer which asset will outperform, but why capital is flowing into both simultaneously, and what that says about global markets in 2026.

    Why gold is reaching record highs

    Gold’s rise beyond 4,600 USD per ounce reflects more than short-term fear. Central bank behavior has undergone a structural shift. For the first time in decades, gold now accounts for a larger share of global reserve allocations than US Treasuries, highlighting changing views on long-term monetary stability among sovereign institutions.

    Institutional demand has followed the same trend. Exchange-traded funds experienced renewed inflows throughout 2025, while central banks continued purchasing gold at elevated levels. This is not simply momentum-driven buying — it is strategic positioning. Against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, concerns over fiscal sustainability, and uncertainty surrounding the future path of interest rates, gold is increasingly viewed as both a hedge and a reserve asset free from counterparty risk.

    Expectations of lower interest rates have also strengthened gold’s appeal. Falling yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making gold comparatively more attractive. Meanwhile, a weaker US dollar mechanically supports gold demand outside the United States, reinforcing its role as a global store of value rather than merely a defensive asset.

    In this environment, gold is no longer seen solely as an inflation hedge. It has evolved into a broader indicator of policy uncertainty and systemic risk — a form of protection against scenarios that traditional fixed-income assets may no longer hedge effectively.

    Why crypto continues to attract demand despite volatility

    Bitcoin’s volatility has not stopped capital from returning to the market. Although still trading well below its late-2025 peaks, bitcoin remains structurally elevated, reflecting a different form of investor demand. Unlike gold, its appeal lies not in stability, but in responsiveness.

    Crypto markets remain closely tied to liquidity conditions and investor risk appetite. Bitcoin does not consistently function as a safe haven. During periods of acute market stress, it can decline alongside equities. However, when liquidity expectations improve or risk sentiment recovers, bitcoin often rebounds more rapidly — and more aggressively — than traditional assets.

    This dynamic positions crypto as a performance-oriented asset rather than a defensive hedge. Investors allocate capital to it when they anticipate improving financial conditions, seek exposure to volatility, or pursue asymmetric upside potential. Institutional access has expanded and market infrastructure has matured, but crypto still retains the high-risk, high-reward characteristics that continue to attract investors willing to tolerate significant fluctuations.

    The rise of the mixed portfolio strategy

    Perhaps the most important development is not gold’s rally or crypto’s resilience individually, but the fact that investors are increasingly holding both simultaneously. This reflects a portfolio strategy designed for a multi-regime market environment.

    Gold acts as a stabilizer during periods of uncertainty, while crypto offers convex upside when conditions improve. Holding both is not contradictory — it reflects an acknowledgment that markets in 2026 are no longer driven by a single dominant narrative. Risk can escalate quickly, but liquidity conditions can also improve just as rapidly. Portfolios positioned for only one outcome risk being exposed to the other.

    This blended approach suggests investors are managing not only volatility, but also regime uncertainty. They are hedging against systemic risks while remaining positioned for performance opportunities. It represents a more sophisticated style of portfolio construction — one that balances defensive and offensive exposure dynamically rather than statically.

    According to Terence Hove, senior market analyst at Exness, execution quality becomes increasingly important when trading assets with vastly different volatility profiles. He notes that cross-asset strategies depend on reliable trading conditions, especially during macro-driven market events, where spreads, execution precision, and slippage control become critical for traders moving between gold and crypto.

    This dual-allocation approach also highlights a practical issue that is often overlooked: switching between defensive and performance assets only works efficiently if trading conditions remain stable across both markets. Otherwise, the transition itself becomes an additional cost. In this sense, broker execution quality becomes part of portfolio construction.

    For instance, Exness reported that BTCUSD spreads remained at minimum levels 99.98% of the time, while ETHUSD spreads were reduced by 67%. In highly volatile markets, such consistency can help traders adjust exposure without execution risk becoming the dominant variable.

    What this says about market psychology

    Simultaneous demand for gold and crypto points to a fragmented macro environment. Markets are neither fully risk-on nor fully risk-off. Instead, investors are positioning for multiple possible outcomes at the same time.

    Demand for gold reflects concerns over policy credibility, currency stability, and geopolitical tensions. Demand for crypto reflects expectations that liquidity cycles and structural adoption trends can still drive strong performance. These narratives coexist because the current macro backdrop supports both caution and opportunism.

    In that sense, markets are not choosing between fear and growth — they are pricing both simultaneously. The combination of strong gold demand and persistent crypto interest suggests investors are building portfolios capable of absorbing shocks while still participating in upside opportunities when conditions improve.

    As 2026 progresses, the relationship between gold and crypto will likely remain fluid, shaped by changes in liquidity conditions, policy expectations, and market stress. Investors who understand the distinct role each asset plays — and who operate within trading environments capable of maintaining stability across asset classes — may be better equipped to navigate the volatility ahead.

  • Key Assets to Watch – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, and USD/MXN

    USD/JPY

    The US Dollar strengthened notably against the Japanese Yen during the week, climbing back above the key ¥158 level. The widening interest rate gap remains a primary factor driving the pair higher, as Japan continues to face limitations in tightening monetary policy too aggressively.

    Table of prices USD/JPY 17/05/2026

    In many ways, this market continues to reward traders who hold US Dollars instead of Japanese Yen, largely due to the attractive yield advantage. The broader sentiment remains bullish, though traders should closely monitor the ¥160 region, as it has previously prompted intervention from Japan’s central bank.

    EUR/USD

    The Euro fell sharply during the week and now appears likely to move toward the lower end of the broader trading range that has been in place for months. A decline toward the 1.14 level would not be surprising, as that area has served as a major support zone since around March.

    Table of prices EUR/USD 17/05/2026

    In the end, persistent high interest rates in the United States continue to support the bullish outlook for the US Dollar, keeping demand for the currency strong. At the same time, markets increasingly appear to be pricing in the risk of energy-driven inflation shocks across the global economy.

    Natural Gas

    Natural gas prices moved higher during the week, although the $3 level continues to stand out as a significant resistance zone. Selling into excessive bullish momentum still appears attractive, particularly if prices approach the $3 mark again.

    Table of prices Natural Gas 17/05/2026

    I don’t view this as the beginning of a major or long-term move higher. Instead, it seems more like a short-term “fade the rally” setup, especially since this period of the year typically brings softer natural gas demand.

    Crude Oil

    The light sweet crude oil market posted strong gains during the week, although price action remains extremely volatile. That instability is likely to persist as traders continue reacting to geopolitical headlines and developments coming out of the Middle East.

    Table of prices Crude Oil 17/05/2026

    Ongoing concerns surrounding energy inflation continue to shape market sentiment, with traders increasingly fearing that further economic pressure could lie ahead before conditions improve. Global markets are also beginning to feel the impact of reduced Middle Eastern oil flows, as previously stored supplies on tankers are gradually being depleted. As a result, crude oil is likely to remain a highly volatile and unpredictable market in the near term.

    Bitcoin

    Bitcoin declined over the course of the week, but the broader bullish pressure remains intact as the market continues to test higher levels. Notably, Bitcoin showed relative strength while many other assets struggled, marking a shift from its behavior in previous periods when it often moved lower alongside broader market weakness.

    Table of prices Bitcoin 17/05/2026

    Despite elevated interest rates, Bitcoin’s resilience has been difficult to ignore. Under normal circumstances, the market could have experienced a much deeper pullback months ago, yet buyers have consistently stepped in to support prices. Sometimes it is more important to focus on what the market is actually doing rather than what it is theoretically supposed to do, and right now Bitcoin still appears to be attracting buyers.

    Gold

    Gold prices came under heavy selling pressure during the week, and continued increases in interest rates are likely to remain a major headwind for the market. With prices now trading below the $4,600 level, attention is shifting toward the $4,500 area as the next key support zone.

    Table of prices Gold 17/05/2026

    A break below the $4,500 level could pave the way for a deeper decline toward the 50-week EMA. On the upside, short-term rebounds are likely to face resistance near the $4,800 region, and as long as US 10-year Treasury yields remain elevated, gold may continue to encounter selling pressure.

    Silver

    Silver endured a very difficult week after initially appearing ready for a major breakout higher. However, the $90 level once again acted as strong resistance, effectively halting the rally. Rising interest rates in the United States have continued to weigh heavily on silver prices, which has historically been a negative factor for the metal over the longer term.

    Table of prices Silver 17/05/2026

    Silver is now forming a very bearish-looking weekly candlestick pattern, which could signal additional downside pressure ahead. A decline back toward the $70 level would not be surprising, as that area has previously served as a major support zone. Overall, silver remains an extremely risky and volatile market at the moment.

    USD/MXN

    The US Dollar strengthened against the Mexican Peso during the week, although the pair remains stuck within the broader consolidation range that has been in place for some time. The 17.50 level continues to act as a major resistance barrier, while the 17.20 area underneath provides important support.

    Table of prices USD/MXN 17/05/2026

    The pair is likely to remain range-bound for now, as the stronger US Dollar is being offset by the attractive interest rate differential offered by the Mexican Peso. While the Dollar has been gaining against many currencies, the yield advantage in Mexico still encourages traders to sell rallies in USD/MXN. As a result, the market may continue moving sideways until broader macroeconomic uncertainties become clearer.

  • A Bitcoin owner successfully regained access to $400,000 worth of BTC after 11 years with the help of Claude AI.

    • A Bitcoin investor regained access to almost $400,000 worth of BTC after leveraging Claude AI to unlock a wallet that had remained inaccessible since 2015.
    • The recovery process involved AI-assisted analysis of legacy wallet files and mnemonic information to help identify the correct password.
    • Blockchain records later confirmed the transfer of the recovered funds, fueling broader conversations about the expanding role of artificial intelligence in cryptocurrency recovery efforts.

    A Bitcoin (BTC) holder reportedly regained access to around 5 BTC — valued at nearly $400,000 — after recovering a forgotten wallet password, according to a viral post on X shared Wednesday.

    The user, known on X as cprkrn, said the breakthrough came with the help of Claude AI after years of unsuccessful attempts to recover the wallet.

    Crypto community reacts to AI-assisted wallet recovery

    According to the post, the wallet became inaccessible after the owner changed the password and later forgot the updated credentials. Over the years, he allegedly tested countless password combinations, hired several recovery experts, and searched through old notes in an effort to regain access to the funds.

    The turning point came when the user uploaded files from an old college computer into Claude AI. By combining the data with a recovered mnemonic seed phrase, he was ultimately able to decrypt the wallet and recover the Bitcoin.

    “Tried ~3.5 trillion passwords + none worked, ended up matching an old seed phrase found in a college notebook with an old wallet file,” he wrote.

    The user later publicly disclosed the forgotten password, triggering widespread reactions throughout the crypto community. In a follow-up post, he admitted he “would’ve been too dumb to figure it out” without the AI’s help.

    Blockchain activity appears to support the claim. Wallet records linked to the address show BTC deposits dating back to April 2015, along with recent transactions consistent with a recovery and transfer of the funds to a new wallet, according to data from Blockchair.

    The story quickly attracted attention from several notable figures in the crypto space, including Nic Carter, Laura Shin, and Jesse Pollak.

    Importantly, the recovery depended on AI-assisted analysis of files and credentials already owned by the wallet holder, helping ease concerns about broader threats to Bitcoin wallet security.

    The incident highlights an emerging use case for artificial intelligence in crypto recovery efforts. However, it does not suggest that AI can crack Bitcoin’s encryption, as the recovery relied on existing seed phrases and legacy wallet data rather than bypassing cryptographic protections.

    The case also contrasts with other high-profile stories involving lost Bitcoin holdings, including the 2025 attempt by James Howells to recover a hard drive containing thousands of BTC from a landfill.

  • Gold mining stocks could outperform physical gold when prices reach major buying zones.

    In the currency markets, Tuesdays have historically tended to favor government-issued fiat currencies over gold — though not consistently — and today happens to be Tuesday.

    Gold ($GOLD – Quarterly Chart)

    Fiat currencies may experience periods of strength — even lasting for years — but in the long run, they have consistently underperformed gold.

    Gold ($GOLD – Weekly Chart)

    The weekly chart of gold versus fiat currencies continues to display a flag-like consolidation pattern, one that still appears to favor the bullish side.

    The projected breakout target from this formation is estimated to be in the $8,000–$9,000 range.

    Analysts across the gold market are debating both the origin of the flag pattern and the catalyst that could ignite the next major rally. The prevailing narrative from mainstream media and bank analysts has been that escalating US military involvement in Iran has pushed oil prices higher, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates. Because gold yields no interest while fiat currencies do, this dynamic has temporarily supported fiat over gold.

    Some observers also argue that further downside pressure has come from the central banks of Iran and Russia, which may be selling gold reserves to offset declining fiat revenues and the financial strain caused by ongoing conflict.

    Meanwhile, the Indian government has introduced additional taxes on bullion bank imports, encouraged citizens to reduce gold purchases, and is reportedly considering another increase in import duties.

    Federal Reserve Total Assets (2003-2026 Chart)

    Although the Federal Reserve has implemented some quantitative easing this year, the scale has been relatively limited.

    It is worth noting that during 2010–2011, the Fed’s balance sheet expanded only modestly, yet gold prices surged sharply. In contrast, throughout 2024–2025, the Fed’s balance sheet actually contracted, but gold still dramatically outperformed fiat currencies. Why?

    Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (1973-2026 Chart)

    Commercial “QE” in the form of bank lending continues at an aggressive pace and far exceeds government-led quantitative easing. The expansion of private credit and money supply remains one of the key forces driving fiat currencies into a long-term decline against gold.

    In the end, gold is an exceptionally complex form of money influenced by many different factors. Asian import duties, seasonal festivals, geopolitical conflicts, interest rates, and bank credit growth all play a role in determining gold’s fiat price.

    A strong argument can be made that gold is not consistently predictable. Many analysts spend enormous effort trying to forecast movements that, in reality, may be inherently difficult — if not impossible — to predict accurately.

    That uncertainty itself is one of the main reasons why millions of experienced gold investors across Asia and the West concentrate less on short-term forecasting and more on accumulating what they view as the “ultimate form of money” whenever prices weaken.

    Maintaining focus on the broader macro picture is increasingly important as investors navigate persistent inflation, tariffs, the 2021–2025 geopolitical conflict cycle, elevated stock market valuations, debt ceiling concerns, and the ongoing shift in global economic power.

    Although gold’s short-term direction is often unpredictable, key buying and selling zones can still be identified for both investors and traders. No one can know with certainty whether gold will reach a particular level, but if those zones are tested, market participants in the precious metals space are expected to accumulate aggressively. Historically, such phases have often led to dramatic outperformance by gold mining stocks relative to bullion itself.

    VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX – Daily Chart)

    I’m frequently asked, “When will mining stocks outperform gold?” My response is simple: “Whenever they enter a major buy zone. That’s where the strongest outperformance begins.”

    Expecting long-term dominance from high-flying Nasdaq growth stocks over the Dow isn’t always realistic. However, when those stocks are purchased during pullbacks that bring the broader market into major support areas, they can generate remarkable gains within just a month or two — returns that the overall market might otherwise take years to produce.

    The same principle applies to precious metals miners, often to an even greater degree. As a general rule, gold, silver, and copper mining stocks can deliver unleveraged fiat gains of 20% or more within one to two months after being bought at the right zones.

    This year, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF has already experienced two strong periods of outperformance relative to gold bullion, and a third wave — potentially underway now — could produce even larger gains for gold-stock traders and investors.

    Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – Daily Chart)

    Silver mining stock investors have also enjoyed exceptional gains this year, with the two major buy zones delivering rallies of 20% or more.

    Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX – Daily Chart)

    The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure and robotics is transforming copper into what some investors now call the “new oil.” The old slogan, “Drill, Baby, Drill!” may eventually evolve into, “Drill, Bonehead, Drill” — unless the drilling is for copper.

    For copper stock investors, the key buy zones closely mirror those seen in gold and silver mining shares. The gold $4,400 support zone and the Dow 45,000 support zone were highlighted as attractive accumulation areas for miners before prices moved into those levels.

    Historically, mining-stock ETFs and individual mining companies tend to stabilize around major support zones in both gold and the Dow. From those areas, they have often launched into powerful rallies.

    The bottom line is straightforward: gold remains, in the eyes of many investors, the world’s premier form of money, while gold, silver, and copper mining stocks can become exceptional vehicles for outperformance — provided they are accumulated with patience, discipline, and careful timing.

  • BTC/USD Crypto Signal: Market Poised as Tightening Triangle Reflects Growing Uncertainty.

    The BTC/USD pair has delivered several strong and technically reliable price swings in recent years, creating attractive trading opportunities for both investors and short-term traders.

    As a result, market participants continue watching Bitcoin closely, anticipating another significant move ahead. However, Bitcoin’s recent climb to a fresh multi-month high lacked the strength and momentum seen in equities and other risk-sensitive assets during the same period. Combined with fading bullish momentum, this has raised questions about whether Bitcoin may be losing some of its long-standing market appeal, either temporarily or for a longer period.

    One key reason traders are paying close attention now is that Bitcoin appears to be approaching a critical technical turning point. A closer examination of the chart shows bulls and bears are currently in near equilibrium. When price action compresses into a tightening consolidation phase like this, it often precedes a breakout that can trigger a stronger directional move, either continuing the existing trend or reversing it.

    Additional factors adding to Bitcoin’s importance at the moment include:

    • Uncertain price action in the US Dollar, suggesting Bitcoin’s own dynamics may drive the next move;
    • Today’s US CPI inflation report, which could surprise markets and spark volatility.

    The clearest sign that Bitcoin may be nearing a decisive move is the formation of a narrowing triangle pattern on the chart. The converging trend lines connecting recent highs and lows indicate increasing indecision and the possibility of a breakout in either direction.

    That said, the pattern is not perfectly symmetrical, which slightly weakens its reliability. The ascending support trend line is noticeably steeper than the descending resistance line, making the setup less balanced than a classic triangle formation.

    Another technical aspect worth noting is that, despite some softness in the broader long-term uptrend, Bitcoin still maintains a meaningful bullish structure after recently reaching fresh multi-month highs. This could strengthen the argument for an upside breakout, particularly if the price manages to break above the recent swing highs and establish itself beyond the $82,500 level.

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    One of the clearest signs that AUD/USD may be approaching a pivotal move is the formation of a tightening triangle pattern on the chart. The converging trend lines connecting recent highs and lows highlight growing market indecision and suggest that a breakout in either direction could soon emerge.

    While the pair has remained confined within this narrowing structure for several sessions, the setup is not a perfectly symmetrical triangle. The ascending support line is steeper than the descending resistance line, making the formation slightly uneven and therefore somewhat less reliable as a classic consolidation signal.

    Another technical factor worth monitoring is the broader trend structure. Although the longer-term bullish momentum remains relatively modest, AUD/USD has still managed to post fresh multi-month highs recently. This underlying strength may increase the probability of an upside breakout, particularly if buyers succeed in pushing the pair above nearby swing highs and sustaining momentum beyond key resistance levels.

    At the same time, traders should remain cautious ahead of major macroeconomic catalysts, especially US inflation data and broader US Dollar movements, as these could determine whether the pair breaks higher or reverses lower from the current consolidation zone.

    image

    Watch Closely for US CPI Inflation Data

    The primary risk for USD-related currency pairs today is the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, widely regarded as one of the most influential monthly indicators in the Forex market.

    This inflation report has the potential to trigger sharp volatility, particularly if the figures differ significantly from market expectations. Current forecasts suggest annual inflation could rise from 3.3% to 3.7%. Any meaningful deviation from that estimate is likely to have a direct impact on the US Dollar’s direction.

    For instance, if inflation prints at 3.9% or higher, traders may anticipate a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, which could strengthen the US Dollar and push this currency pair sharply lower. On the other hand, a softer reading of 3.5% or below could weaken the Dollar and fuel a strong upside move in the pair.

    During major economic releases like this, market sentiment can shift rapidly, often overpowering existing technical setups and making chart patterns temporarily less reliable.

    Could the Triangle Pattern Lose Its Importance?

    Today’s analysis is largely based on the expectation that a breakout from the current triangle formation could trigger a decisive — or at least tradable — move in Bitcoin. However, there are several reasons why this pattern may ultimately prove less significant than expected.

    First, the broader market trend still leans bullish. For traders who prefer to follow the prevailing trend, or at least avoid trading aggressively against it, a downside break from the triangle could turn into a false breakout that quickly reverses higher.

    In addition, the triangle itself is not an especially convincing formation. As noted earlier, the structure lacks the balance and symmetry typically associated with stronger consolidation patterns, which reduces confidence in its predictive value.

    There are also major macroeconomic and geopolitical risks that could easily overpower technical signals. Today’s US CPI inflation data has the potential to create sharp volatility across financial markets, while any unexpected developments involving tensions between the United States and Iran could rapidly shift investor sentiment.

    In situations like these, strong fundamental catalysts can drive price action straight through technical levels and chart patterns, making formations such as the current triangle temporarily irrelevant.

    Outlook on BTC/USD

    The key focus for Bitcoin today is likely to be the direction of the eventual breakout from the tightening triangle formation. The first trend line tested could become the market’s main decision point for the session.

    If price reacts positively from the ascending support trend line with a strong bullish rebound, it may present an attractive long opportunity — particularly if the nearby support level around $80,558 is also firmly defended. Such a move would suggest buyers are still in control despite recent consolidation.

    On the other hand, a rejection from the upper resistance trend line could create a favorable short setup, especially if the psychologically important $82,000 level is rejected at the same time. That combination would reinforce the possibility that bullish momentum is fading near resistance.

    As price action remains compressed within the triangle, traders will likely watch closely for confirmation signals before committing to a directional move.

    Today’s BTC/USD Trading Signals

    • Risk per trade: 0.50%
    • Trade validity: Positions should be opened before 5:00 PM Tokyo time on Wednesday.

    Long Trade Setups

    Consider long positions after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 chart following a test of the following support levels:

    • $80,558
    • $79,440
    • $77,858

    For risk management:

    • Place the stop loss $100 below the most recent swing low.
    • Once the trade gains $100 in profit, move the stop loss to breakeven.
    • Secure partial profits by closing 50% of the position after the first $100 gain, while allowing the remaining portion to continue running.

    Short Trade Setup

    Consider short positions after a bearish rejection or reversal signal on the H1 timeframe following a test of:

    • $81,343

    Trade management guidelines:

    • Set the stop loss $100 above the latest swing high.
    • Move the stop loss to breakeven once the trade reaches $100 profit.
    • Take profit on half the position after a $100 favorable move and leave the rest open for a larger potential move.

    Identifying Price Action Reversals

    Common reversal confirmations on the hourly chart include:

    • Pin bars
    • Doji candles
    • Outside candles
    • Engulfing candles with a stronger close

    These candlestick formations can help traders confirm whether support or resistance levels are being respected before entering a position.

    Key Events to Watch

    There are no major Bitcoin-specific events scheduled today. However, broader market volatility could increase due to important US economic developments, including:

    • US CPI inflation data release at 1:30 PM London time
    • Later remarks and developments involving the Federal Reserve Chair

    These events could significantly influence US Dollar strength and indirectly impact Bitcoin price action.

  • Weekly Crypto Update: Bitcoin rally loses momentum amid renewed US-Iran tensions, inflation concerns, and upcoming token unlocks.

    • Bitcoin’s recovery pauses while the $80,000 support level remains intact, as optimism surrounding a final US-Iran peace deal begins to fade.
    • Market participants are also staying cautious ahead of key US economic data releases, particularly Tuesday’s CPI report.
    • Meanwhile, the US Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to conduct its markup hearing on the Clarity Act this Thursday.
    • On the supply side, roughly $159 million worth of token unlocks — led by Solana’s $40 million and Pump.fun’s $21 million — may add further volatility to the crypto market.

    The cryptocurrency market started the week on a subdued note, with Bitcoin (BTC) finding it difficult to maintain support above $80,000 as optimism over a final US-Iran peace agreement weakened due to growing complications in the negotiations.

    Altcoins also showed signs of fading momentum, with Ethereum (ETH) retreating from its weekly peak of $2,375, while Ripple (XRP) revisited support around $1.45 after facing rejection near the $1.50 resistance zone.

    Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal

    US President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the conflict, calling it “totally unacceptable.” The proposal, reportedly delivered to the White House through Pakistani mediators, was presented as a counteroffer to a one-page US memorandum outlining a phased framework for ending the war — a conflict that has severely disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important shipping routes.

    Under the proposal, Iran demanded the complete removal of US sanctions, an immediate end to the military blockade around the Strait, and concessions related to its nuclear program, including a shorter moratorium on uranium enrichment. Tehran also sought sovereignty rights over the Strait of Hormuz, including authority to coordinate maritime traffic passing through the route.

    Trump has continued to maintain a firm stance on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, insisting that the country’s nuclear program must be fully dismantled.

    Meanwhile, global markets remain tense as hopes for a lasting peace agreement continue to weaken amid the fragile diplomatic environment. Oil prices also remain elevated, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude holding near the $95.00 level.

    Caution ahead of US macroeconomic data

    The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday. The CPI is the US’s main inflation gauge, tracking changes in the average prices consumers pay for goods and services such as food, housing, and transportation over time.

    For investors, CPI data plays a critical role in shaping expectations for interest rates. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could further reduce hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, while softer inflation data may strengthen the bullish outlook for risk assets like Bitcoin, as markets anticipate a more accommodative monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve.

    March inflation data came in above expectations, with headline CPI rising to 3.3% year-over-year, compared to 2.4% in February. Core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — increased to 2.6% in March from 2.5% previously.

    Markets are now forecasting April CPI to climb further to 3.7% YoY, while Core CPI is expected to edge up to 2.7%.

    Investors will also closely monitor Wednesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) release, which measures inflation from the producer side by tracking changes in the prices businesses receive for goods and services.

    Clarity Act advances to US Senate markup hearing

    The Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold its long-awaited markup hearing for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 — commonly known as the Clarity Act — on Thursday.

    The legislation had remained largely stalled after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced in January that the exchange was withdrawing its support over concerns related to stablecoin yield provisions and other aspects of the bill.

    However, momentum appears to have returned following the release of a compromise draft by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks. The revised text reportedly proposes banning crypto firms from offering yield on static stablecoin reserve holdings, while still permitting rewards tied to stablecoin assets actively used in certain activities. The compromise helped move the legislation forward to the next stage of the process.

    At the same time, banking industry groups indicated that several concerns with the compromise proposal remain unresolved. According to a report from CoinDesk, industry representatives said they would continue providing feedback in an effort to reach a framework that supports digital asset innovation while also strengthening consumer protections.

    Large token unlocks could fuel market volatility

    Several cryptocurrency projects are set to unlock additional token supply into the market this week, potentially increasing short-term volatility. The schedule began on Monday with a notable $5 million unlock from Based.

    According to data from DefiLlama, Tuesday’s unlocks are expected to be significantly larger, led by Solana with roughly $40 million in tokens entering circulation, followed by Pump.fun at around $21 million and Aptos with nearly $13 million.

    Additional sizable unlocks later in the week include approximately $9 million from Sei on Thursday, around $18 million from Connex on Friday, and roughly $13 million from Arbitrum on Saturday.

    Token unlocks often increase selling pressure as newly released assets become available for trading, which can lead to heightened price swings, particularly during periods of cautious market sentiment.

    Technical outlook: Bitcoin rally loses momentum as support remains intact

    Bitcoin is trading around $81,246, maintaining a cautious tone as price action remains below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), as well as the weekly SuperTrend indicator.

    Despite the near-term weakness, the 200-week EMA near $68,125 continues to support the broader bullish structure. Momentum indicators also point to consolidation rather than a sharp bearish reversal.

    The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in positive territory, signaling that bullish momentum has not completely faded. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe is hovering near the neutral 50 level, indicating that momentum is stabilizing instead of showing a decisive move higher at this stage.

    On the upside, the first major resistance level appears near the 100-week EMA at $82,381, while the 50-week EMA around $85,634 strengthens a heavy supply zone overhead. A stronger bullish recovery would likely require a weekly close above the SuperTrend resistance at $91,753.

    On the downside, the 200-week EMA near $68,125 remains the key structural support level for Bitcoin’s broader trend. A sustained move below this area would significantly weaken the medium-term technical outlook.

  • Markets in Focus – Gold, USD/CHF, EUR/USD, BTC/USD, USD/ZAR, NASDAQ 100, USD/MXN, and USD/JPY

    Gold

    The gold market initially pulled back during the week but later rebounded and regained strength. The $4,600 level remains a key area to watch closely, as it has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in the past.

    Table of prices Gold 10/05/2026

    Gold still appears to have solid potential to gradually move higher, although interest rate markets continue to create headwinds. In this environment, gold is likely to remain volatile and range-bound in the short term. Despite that, the longer-term outlook still looks strongly bullish, and I believe the market could eventually reach the $5,000 level. However, that would likely require several supportive factors to align, including a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

    USD/CHF

    The US dollar initially strengthened against the Swiss franc but has since pulled back quite sharply. The pair is now testing a potential support zone around the 0.7750 level. Among the major currency pairs, this is one where I still favor the US dollar over the longer term. However, falling interest rates and growing concerns that geopolitical conflicts could escalate are boosting demand for safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc.

    Table of prices USD/CHF 10/09/2026

    Ironically, if geopolitical tensions ease and peace returns, interest rates in the United States may decline, but demand for the safe-haven Swiss franc would likely weaken as well. As a result, this pair is expected to remain heavily influenced by headlines and market sentiment. Over the longer term, however, I still believe USD/CHF has room to move higher.

    EUR/USD

    The euro initially moved lower before rebounding and showing renewed strength. However, the pair continues to face strong resistance around the 1.18 level, extending up to 1.1850. The 1.1850 zone has remained a significant area of selling pressure, keeping the market contained since the summer of last year.

    Table of prices EUR/USD 10/05/2026

    Going forward, we will need to see whether EUR/USD can finally break above this resistance zone, especially since the pair has attempted to do so several times already. Each breakout attempt, however, has been met with heavy selling pressure that quickly pushes the market back down. For now, I suspect the broader trading range will continue to hold.

    BTC/USD

    Bitcoin moved higher during the week but later surrendered part of its gains. Even though the latest candlestick resembles a shooting star, it is important to note that the previous candle formed a hammer pattern. This combination suggests that Bitcoin could enter a period of sideways consolidation in the near term.

    Table of prices BTC/USD 10/09/2026

    A break above the $84,000 level would be a strong bullish signal and could pave the way for a much larger upward move. In the meantime, I believe short-term pullbacks will likely continue to attract buyers, with many traders viewing dips as potential buying opportunities.

    USD/ZAR

    If you were searching for volatility, the South African rand certainly delivered during the week. The pair initially attempted to move higher, but later turned lower as the US dollar continued to weaken. That remains the key theme in this market — traders are likely to keep selling into short-term rallies, especially as the interest rate differential continues to favor South Africa and is expected to do so for the foreseeable future.

    Table of prices USD/ZAR 10/05/2026

    With that in mind, I believe the market will likely drift back toward the 16.20 level over time, although the move is expected to be gradual rather than aggressive. In the end, this remains more of a carry trade environment, where traders are primarily focused on earning positive swap returns.

    NASDAQ 100

    The Nasdaq 100 continues to defy gravity and now appears extremely overbought. The index remains locked in a remarkably strong uptrend, but sooner or later, a sizable pullback is likely to occur — one that could catch overly aggressive or greedy traders off guard.

    Table of prices NASDAQ 100 10/05/2026

    That said, I believe the 28,000 level will be a key area to watch, as many traders are likely to look for signs of support and renewed buying interest if the market pulls back toward that zone.

    USD/MXN

    The US dollar has remained weak against the Mexican peso for quite some time. The 17.50 level continues to act as a significant resistance barrier, as it has repeatedly attracted strong selling pressure in the past. Overall, the pair still appears to be trapped within a broader trading range, with support near 17.20 and resistance around 17.50.

    Table of prices USD/MXN 10/05/2026

    Ultimately, I believe that if USD/MXN can break above the highs of the last two weekly candlesticks, it could open the door for a move toward the 18.00 level. However, such a rally would likely require a broader risk-off or fear-driven market environment. For now, the overall setup still appears to favor a “sell the rally” approach rather than a sustained bullish trend.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar traded in a highly volatile manner against the Japanese yen throughout the week, following last week’s intervention by the Bank of Japan.

    Table of prices USD/JPY 10/09/2026

    That said, the pair is beginning to form a candlestick pattern that suggests stabilization, indicating there is a genuine possibility of another move higher. A breakout above the 160.50 level — or potentially even the 162.00 region — could pave the way for fresh multi-decade highs, with resistance levels stretching back to 1990.

  • Top 3 Crypto Outlook: Bitcoin continues its upward momentum, while Ethereum and XRP approach major resistance levels.

    • Bitcoin resumes its upward move on Monday following a brief pause last week.
    • Ethereum is nearing its 200-day EMA, and a strong close above this level could pave the way for further gains.
    • XRP trades close to the $1.40 resistance area, with a breakout potentially sparking a new rally.

    Bitcoin (BTC) climbs on Monday, trading above $80,000 and continuing its uptrend after a short consolidation last week. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) mirror BTC’s momentum, posting early-week gains as they approach key resistance levels, where a breakout could signal the start of another rally.

    Bitcoin reaches the $80,000 milestone.

    Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $80,161 on Monday, maintaining a bullish tone as it holds above a strong support zone formed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $78,962 and the 100-day EMA near $75,903. The 50-day EMA around $74,448 further supports the ongoing uptrend.

    Momentum indicators remain positive, with the RSI near 66 in bullish territory and the MACD crossing higher into positive ground, signaling continued buying interest despite nearby resistance levels.

    On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 200-day EMA around $81,912, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $83,437 and a key horizontal barrier near $84,410. A decisive close above this zone could pave the way for a move toward the January high around $97,924.

    On the downside, initial support lies at the $80,000 psychological level, with stronger support at $78,962. A deeper correction could target the broader support area between the 100-day EMA at $75,903 and the previous channel top near $75,680, where buyers are likely to step in as long as the overall bullish structure remains intact.

    Ethereum may extend gains with a confirmed close above the 50-day EMA

    Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,370 on Monday, holding a constructive short-term outlook as price remains above both the 50-day EMA (~$2,256) and the 100-day EMA (~$2,344). However, it is now testing a key resistance zone, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,380 acting as the first barrier, while a stronger supply cluster sits near $2,575, where the 50% retracement and the 200-day EMA converge.

    Momentum is gradually improving. The RSI is rising toward 58, indicating strengthening bullish momentum without being overbought, while the MACD remains negative but is trending higher, suggesting fading bearish pressure.

    On the upside, a break and daily close above $2,380 would expose the critical $2,575 confluence zone. Clearing this area decisively could open the path toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2,770.

    On the downside, immediate support lies at the 100-day EMA ($2,344), followed by the 50-day EMA ($2,256). A deeper pullback could test the channel resistance-turned-support near $2,148 and the 23.6% retracement at $2,138. Only a move toward the lower channel boundary near $1,747 would begin to threaten the broader bullish structure.

    XRP tests key resistance near $1.40

    XRP is trading around $1.41 on Monday, hovering just above the 50-day EMA at $1.40, which provides immediate support. However, it remains below the 100-day EMA near $1.50 and the upper boundary of a broader descending channel around $1.54, keeping the medium-term outlook constrained.

    Momentum is modest. The RSI sits near 53, indicating mild bullish pressure without being overextended, while the MACD has dipped slightly into negative territory, suggesting that upward momentum may be losing strength as price consolidates.

    On the upside, resistance is seen first at the 100-day EMA (~$1.50), followed by the channel ceiling near $1.55. A sustained breakout above this zone would be required to target the 200-day EMA at $1.74 and the longer-term resistance around $1.90.

    On the downside, initial support lies at the 50-day EMA ($1.40), followed by a stronger floor at $1.30. If selling pressure intensifies, the lower boundary of the channel near $0.73 could come into focus as a major structural support level.

  • Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle over?

    Is Bitcoin’s legendary boom-and-bust cycle truly breaking down, or are traders simply misinterpreting recent price action? After rallying to around $126,000 and then plunging nearly 50% within months, Bitcoin is putting one of its most enduring narratives—the four-year cycle—under serious scrutiny.

    From 2024 to 2025, claims that “the four-year cycle is dead” spread widely across crypto circles as Bitcoin repeatedly set new all-time highs, peaking near $126,000 in October. Prominent voices like Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood supported this view, pointing to shifting market dynamics such as spot BTC ETFs, evolving regulation, and increasing institutional and government participation.

    Yet after the roughly 50% correction over the past six months, many who dismissed the cycle have reversed course, once again favoring the traditional pattern. Still, the question remains: what if the original argument—that the cycle is changing—was right all along?

    The four-year cycle, explained

    Bitcoin has historically moved in a repeating four-year rhythm, closely tied to its halving events. These cycles typically feature major bull market peaks and deep bear market bottoms spaced about four years apart. This pattern can be seen in Bitcoin’s record highs in November 2013, December 2017, November 2021, and October 2025—each occurring in the period following a halving.

    A halving cuts the rate of new Bitcoin issuance by 50% roughly every four years, tightening supply and often fueling upward price momentum.

    On the downside, Bitcoin has also followed a consistent pattern of steep corrections, with bear market lows marked by drawdowns of around 80% from prior highs—seen in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022.

    More recently, Bitcoin appears to be echoing this behavior, dropping about 50% from its $126,000 peak in October to around $63,000 by February. However, this could be one of the final instances where the market adheres so closely to the traditional four-year cycle.

    Why calling the death of the four-year cycle in 2024 may have been premature

    One of the main arguments for declaring the cycle “dead” was Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high before the April 2024 halving. This early surge was largely driven by strong inflows into newly launched spot BTC ETFs, which boosted demand ahead of schedule.

    In previous cycles, Bitcoin typically set fresh record highs 16–18 months after a halving—not before it. So this unusual timing led many to believe that the traditional pattern had broken.

    However, rather than signaling the end of the cycle, this shift may simply reflect front-loaded demand. The ETFs and rising institutional participation could have pulled forward the bullish phase, compressing or reshaping the cycle instead of eliminating it altogether.

    Some argued that the arrival of traditional finance (TradFi) players via ETFs introduced entirely new market dynamics, since these participants don’t behave like native crypto investors. While there’s some truth to that, the argument overlooks a core driver of price action: supply and demand.

    By the time ETF investors entered in January 2024, Bitcoin had already gone through about a year of bear market consolidation. During that phase, native crypto participants—long-time cycle followers, including whales and retail investors—had accumulated significant amounts of BTC, effectively becoming long-term holders (LTHs).

    Sticking to the traditional cycle playbook, many of these holders maintained their positions, taking only partial profits, until around Q3 2025. This timing aligned with their expectations of a cycle peak. As a result, LTHs began distributing more heavily leading up to the final top on October 10.

    In the months afterward, their holdings dropped sharply, with LTH supply falling to around 13.6 million BTC by December—the lowest level since 2021.

    On the surface, the heavy distribution by long-term holders—combined with Bitcoin’s roughly 50% price drop—seemed to validate the familiar four-year cycle. However, it may instead signal a turning point, marking the beginning of that cycle’s breakdown and the rise of a new market structure.

    Four-year cycle relevance may diminish over time

    The current market reset suggests a gradual shift in Bitcoin ownership—from traditional cycle-driven participants to institutional players such as ETF investors and corporate treasuries like Strategy.

    In just the past two months, US spot BTC ETFs have recorded net inflows of about $3.75 billion, while Strategy alone has accumulated over 100,000 BTC since the start of the year. The entrance of major financial institutions—highlighted by Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF launch in April—further signals that larger, more traditional players are taking a growing role in the market.

    If this trend continues, and many crypto-native investors remain on the sidelines, the influence of the classic four-year cycle could steadily weaken. Price behavior already hints at this shift: the recent ~50% decline from Bitcoin’s all-time high is notably milder than the historical average of around 80% in past bear markets. If Bitcoin holds above $60,000, this would mark the shallowest drawdown in its history.

    At the same time, halvings may carry less weight going forward. As Bitcoin’s total supply approaches its 21 million cap—with over 20 million already in circulation—the impact of reduced issuance naturally diminishes due to the law of diminishing returns.

    As the market matures and institutional participation deepens, these structural changes could accelerate, pushing crypto-native investors to adapt their strategies to a new, less cycle-dependent environment.

    Still, there’s room for error

    To play devil’s advocate for the four-year cycle, recent behavior from ETF investors suggests the pattern may not be entirely gone.

    Many ETF participants appeared to follow a familiar cycle-driven approach last year: strong inflows helped push Bitcoin to new all-time highs, but were later followed by significant outflows as investors rushed to lock in profits or limit losses after the October leverage flush.

    This behavior mirrors the classic boom-and-bust rhythm seen in previous cycles, indicating that even newer institutional players may still be influenced—at least partially—by the same psychological and market forces that have historically shaped Bitcoin’s price action.

    ETF investors, having now experienced a full boom-and-bust phase, may start factoring the four-year cycle into their strategies—potentially reinforcing it as a self-fulfilling pattern, much like crypto-native investors have done in the past.

    At the same time, the true motivation behind ETF demand remains unclear. Unlike corporate holders such as Strategy, which openly embrace a long-term HODL approach, ETF investors represent a broad and diverse group with varying objectives.

    Some may be drawn to Bitcoin as a store of value, others may be actively trading the familiar four-year cycle, and some—particularly hedge funds—could be exploiting arbitrage opportunities like the basis trade. This diversity makes it difficult to predict how their collective behavior will shape future market cycles.

    So, is the four-year cycle dead?

    A more balanced view is that Bitcoin’s cycle may weaken structurally, but still persist behaviorally. Going forward, price dynamics will likely depend less on halvings and more on how institutional capital chooses to act.

  • Top 3 crypto outlook: Bitcoin and Ethereum bounce back from crucial support levels, while Ripple continues to show signs of weakness.

    • Bitcoin rebounds to trade above $76,000 on Friday after finding support near a key level the previous day.
    • Ethereum remains above its 50-day EMA at $2,244, signaling potential recovery momentum.
    • Meanwhile, XRP continues its decline after dropping below the key 50-day EMA at $1.41 earlier this week.

    Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are attempting a recovery on Friday after rebounding from key support levels in the previous session. In contrast, Ripple (XRP) remains under pressure, having slipped below a crucial support zone. Overall, price action across the three leading cryptocurrencies reflects a cautious market sentiment, as traders watch whether BTC and ETH can sustain their rebound while XRP continues to underperform.

    Bitcoin is trading around $76,600 on Friday, posting a modest rebound after finding support near a key zone in the previous session. The near-term outlook remains slightly bullish, with price holding above both the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, clustered just below $75,700 and aligned with a former channel top that now acts as immediate support around $75,680.

    Momentum indicators paint a mixed picture. The daily RSI near 56 points to steady but not overbought strength, while the MACD remains below the zero line, indicating that the broader momentum backdrop is still somewhat weak despite the recent upside.

    On the downside, immediate support lies near $75,680 and the 100-day EMA at $75,665. A deeper pullback could find demand around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $74,487 and the 50-day EMA near $73,783.

    On the upside, resistance is first seen at the 50% retracement level of $78,962, followed by the key psychological barrier at $80,000. Beyond that, a stronger supply zone emerges between the 200-day EMA near $82,326 and the 61.8% retracement around $83,437, just below a horizontal cap at $84,410, which could limit further gains.

    Ethereum’s 50-day EMA remains firm, providing solid support.

    Ethereum is trading around $2,265 on Friday, holding just above its 50-day EMA at $2,244, though still facing resistance below the 100-day EMA at $2,344 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,367. This setup points to a neutral-to-slightly capped outlook, with price maintaining position above the former channel top at $2,148 but lacking the strength to push into higher resistance zones.

    Momentum signals remain mixed. The daily RSI sits near 49, reflecting neutral conditions, while the MACD stays in negative territory, suggesting fading bullish momentum despite the short-term support holding.

    On the downside, immediate support is located at the 50-day EMA around $2,244. Further support lies near the previous channel ceiling at $2,148 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2,130. A break below this zone could expose the lower boundary of the channel near $1,747.

    On the upside, resistance begins at the 100-day EMA at $2,344, followed by the 38.2% retracement at $2,367. A sustained breakout above these levels could pave the way toward the 50% retracement at $2,558, then the 200-day EMA at $2,613, with the 61.8% retracement at $2,749 as a longer-term target.

    XRP price action remains weak, signaling continued bearish pressure.

    XRP is trading around $1.37 on Friday, continuing to show near-term weakness as it remains within a broader descending channel and below all major EMAs. The 50-day EMA at $1.40 acts as the closest resistance, with additional barriers at the 100-day EMA near $1.51 and the channel top around $1.56.

    Momentum remains soft, with the RSI near 44 staying below the neutral level, while the MACD continues to trend deeper into negative territory—indicating that any short-term rallies may struggle to gain traction under current conditions.

    On the downside, immediate support is seen around $1.30, a level that has previously attracted buyers. If selling pressure intensifies, the broader channel support near $0.75 could come into focus.

    On the upside, a daily close above the 50-day EMA at $1.40 would be an early sign of stabilization. Further resistance lies at $1.51 and $1.56, and only a sustained breakout above these levels would begin to weaken the prevailing bearish trend, with $1.90 as a more distant resistance target.

  • Crypto Overview: Market momentum slows as sentiment weakens, with Terra Classic and Zcash failing to sustain their gains.

    Bitcoin trades just above $76,000 on Friday, maintaining support near its 100-day EMA. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains stuck in a neutral-to-bearish zone, signaling subdued market sentiment. Meanwhile, Terra Classic and Zcash are finding it difficult to sustain Thursday’s gains, raising the risk of a potential bearish reversal.

    Bitcoin (BTC) holds above $76,000 at the time of writing on Friday, remaining stable despite subdued broader market sentiment. Meanwhile, Terra Classic (LUNC) and Zcash (ZEC) are under pressure, struggling to maintain the gains recorded in the previous session.

    Market sentiment tilts toward a bearish bias.

    Market sentiment tilts bearish as CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index reads 41 on Friday, lingering near the line between neutral and fear, signaling that risk-off sentiment is increasingly taking hold among investors.

    Bitcoin steadies at a key support level.

    Bitcoin holds near a key support level, with the 100-day EMA around $75,719 halting its recent three-day pullback and maintaining a short-term upward bias. However, the MACD remains in negative territory below its signal line, indicating that bullish momentum may be transitioning into a corrective phase. Meanwhile, the RSI at 56 stays above the midpoint, supporting a constructive outlook without signaling overbought conditions.

    A break below the 100-day EMA at $75,719 could expose the 50-day EMA near $73,786 as the next support level, while the ascending trendline around $68,707 represents a more distant structural base.

    On the upside, the 200-day EMA at 82,494.55 stands as the next key resistance, and a sustained move above this level could pave the way for a fresh advance within the broader bullish trend.

    Will Terra Luna and Zcash hold gains?

    Terra Classic (LUNC) is trading above $0.000070 on Friday, maintaining its footing after a strong 5% rally in the previous session. The token continues to hold above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs, signaling a constructive short-term outlook.

    However, momentum indicators suggest caution. The RSI is elevated near 79, deep in overbought territory, indicating that the recent upside may be stretched. At the same time, the MACD is flattening around the zero line, pointing to fading bullish momentum following the latest surge.

    For now, LUNC faces clear resistance at the $0.000081 swing high. A failure to break above this level could lead to consolidation or a short-term pullback, especially given the overheated conditions.

    On the downside, the 78.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels at $0.000070 and $0.000062, respectively, act as key support zones for Terra Classic.

    Meanwhile, Zcash trades below $350 on Friday, continuing to consolidate within a triangle pattern. Despite this, the broader outlook remains constructive, with price action holding firmly above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs clustered between roughly $285 and $307.

    Zcash also stays above a rising support trendline near $322, indicating that buyers still dominate the medium-term structure. However, the MACD slipping below its signal line points to fading upside momentum, while the RSI at 56 keeps the bias modestly tilted to the upside.

    On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the descending trendline around $357, where previous rallies have stalled. A decisive daily close above this level could trigger a stronger recovery, potentially targeting the $400 psychological level.

    On the downside, initial support emerges at the rising trendline near $322, followed by the 50-day EMA around $307 and the 100-day EMA near $301. The 200-day EMA at $284 serves as a deeper and more critical support level should selling pressure intensify.

  • Bitcoin dips below $76K as the Fed keeps rates unchanged, while ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions continue to weigh on market sentiment.

    Bitcoin fell on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and indicated it may maintain this stance to counter inflation risks stemming from Middle East tensions. Renewed diplomatic friction between the U.S. and Iran further dampened market sentiment, pushing the world’s largest cryptocurrency down about 1% to $75,632 by late trading.

    Fed holds rates

    The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, in line with expectations, but the decision drew the most dissent since October 1992. One official favored a 25-basis-point cut, while three others opposed signaling any easing bias for now.

    The move comes as rising oil prices linked to Middle East tensions continue to pressure U.S. inflation, while the labor market remains subdued with low hiring and firing activity—making policy decisions more complex. In his press conference, Jerome Powell said the Fed is in a “good place” to either raise or cut rates depending on how inflation evolves, particularly from energy shocks.

    He also indicated he will remain a Fed governor after his term as chair ends. This comes as the Senate advances Kevin Warsh, his potential successor, toward a full confirmation vote. Prolonged higher interest rates are typically a headwind for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

    Trump moves to extend the Iran blockade long-term, turning down Tehran’s proposal.

    Donald Trump is reportedly pursuing a long-term blockade strategy against Iran, favoring sustained economic pressure over renewed military action or withdrawal, according to a The Wall Street Journal report. This comes after the U.S. rejected a three-step proposal from Tehran that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz while postponing nuclear talks, with Trump considering the offer inadequate.

    In comments to Axios, Trump described the blockade as potentially more effective than airstrikes and reaffirmed his stance against lifting it, citing concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Meanwhile, Axios reported that U.S. Central Command has drafted a plan for a brief but intense round of strikes to break the negotiation impasse.

    Trump also criticized Iran on social media, urging faster progress toward a non-nuclear agreement, alongside a provocative post emphasizing a tougher stance. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher on Wednesday.

    Despite these macro pressures—including rising oil prices, increased liquidations, and expectations of prolonged high interest rates—Bitcoin has remained relatively stable. According to analyst Iliya Kalchev from Nexo Dispatch, this resilience may indicate that weaker market participants have already exited, or that the market is consolidating ahead of a major catalyst that could determine its next move.

    Crypto prices today: altcoins largely decline, Dogecoin trims gains

    Most altcoins moved lower alongside Bitcoin on Wednesday. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, dropped 2.2% to $2,241.03, while XRP, ranked third, fell 1.3% to $1.3620. Solana and Cardano also declined by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively. Among meme coins, Dogecoin reduced part of its earlier gains but was still up 2.6% at last check.

  • Why does Bitcoin appear largely unaffected by the conflict in the Middle East?

    The conflict involving Iran has disrupted many asset classes—except for Bitcoin. In recent weeks, the leading cryptocurrency has shown notable resilience, with far less volatility than other risk-sensitive assets like U.S. equities. While some argue that Bitcoin is becoming less sensitive to geopolitical events, other factors are also at play.

    Last week, Bitcoin climbed to a two-month high above $78,000 and has largely maintained those gains, continuing its upward momentum.

    Historically, Bitcoin hasn’t been insulated from geopolitical shocks. Its price has tended to drop during sharp escalations—such as the Iranian strikes on Israel in April 2024—and it still behaves like a risk asset, often moving in tandem with equities during periods of extreme market fear. Yet this pattern hasn’t played out in the current Middle East conflict.

    That said, the US–Iran war began after Bitcoin had already undergone a steep correction of more than 50% from its all-time high prior to February 28.

    This recent resilience could indicate that Bitcoin is in the process of forming a bottom, particularly if it continues to defend key support levels. Beyond the idea that the market had already priced in significant downside, Bitcoin’s stability during wartime may point to stronger underlying demand and a more robust market structure, driven by several supporting factors.

    Institutional investors and corporations are increasing their exposure.

    Institutional investors have poured more than $3 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs from March to now, following a relatively modest $206 million outflow in February. This suggests that even after the conflict began at the end of February, net inflows stayed positive—helping support Bitcoin’s resilience as investors stick to a long-term outlook and continue building exposure.

    On the corporate side, treasury heavyweight Strategy has maintained its aggressive accumulation strategy despite the geopolitical backdrop and an unrealized Q1 loss of $14.46 billion on its Bitcoin holdings. With its latest purchase, Strategy’s total holdings—now exceeding 815,000 BTC—have even surpassed those of major institutional player BlackRock.

    Liquidity injection

    Broader liquidity conditions have also been a key driver behind Bitcoin’s resilience, given that BTC remains highly sensitive to global liquidity cycles. Over the past six months, global M2 money supply has been on the rise. Historically, Bitcoin tends to follow this trend with a lag, as expanding liquidity often finds its way into risk assets. This backdrop of increasing global money supply helps explain—and support—Bitcoin’s recent strength.


    Additionally, according to Barchart, the United States Department of the Treasury is expected to repurchase $15 billion of its own debt this week—marking the largest Treasury buyback on record. This broader backdrop of expanding liquidity, fueled by both Treasury buybacks and rising global M2, has created supportive conditions that help Bitcoin absorb war-related uncertainty more effectively than in earlier, less liquid market cycles.

    Wall Street’s crypto presence keeps growing

    Rising interest from major Wall Street banks is another factor underpinning Bitcoin’s resilience. Morgan Stanley launched its Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) on the New York Stock Exchange in early April, marking the first spot Bitcoin ETF introduced by a major U.S. bank. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has also entered the ETF race.

    This expanding presence of traditional financial institutions in the crypto space strengthens the narrative that Bitcoin is gradually evolving from a purely speculative instrument into a more established asset class.

    Iran considers using Bitcoin for toll payments

    The Middle East conflict may also be enhancing Bitcoin’s real-world utility. Iran has reportedly proposed that shipping companies pay transit tolls in cryptocurrency for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Under the plan, tanker operators would need to submit cargo details in advance for approval by Iranian authorities. Approved vessels would then pay a transit fee of roughly $1 per barrel, with payments accepted in Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies, or the Chinese yuan. Empty vessels would be exempt.

    Given Iran’s reliance on crypto to bypass U.S. sanctions, Bitcoin has already been used for import payments and trade settlement. This latest proposal signals a potentially expanding role for crypto in global commerce. If implemented, it could mark a meaningful step in adoption—especially in financially constrained regions—and may provide a near-term boost to demand, particularly as around 20% of global oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Technical Analysis: Is BTC bottoming out?

    Bitcoin’s technical structure is starting to show constructive signals. The leading cryptocurrency gained 4.33% last week, reaching an 11-week high near $78,333, and has extended those gains by more than 5% this week. Price is այժմ approaching the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $78,490, measured from the August 2024 low (~$49,000) to the October 2025 all-time high (~$126,199).

    A weekly close above this $78,490 resistance would be significant, opening the door for a move toward the 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $82,568. Breaking and holding above that level would establish a higher high on the weekly chart—a strong signal that the broader trend may be turning bullish again.

    Momentum indicators are also improving. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 46 on the weekly timeframe and is trending upward toward the neutral 50 level after rebounding from oversold conditions—suggesting that bearish pressure is fading. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has just printed a bullish crossover, with a positive histogram reinforcing the case for continued upside.

    Taken together, these signals point to a market that may be in the early stages of forming a bottom—though confirmation will depend on whether key resistance levels are decisively broken.

    Bitcoin still behaves primarily as a risk asset, and its role as an “inflation hedge” or “digital gold” remains premature—at least until the market matures further. Rather than acting as a clear safe haven during geopolitical turmoil, its recent resilience likely reflects a convergence of factors: capital inflows, improving liquidity conditions, and growing adoption, alongside the aftermath of a deep correction and deleveraging phase.

    While headlines will continue to influence Bitcoin—as they do all asset classes—the market, for now, appears to be driven more by liquidity dynamics than by geopolitical shocks.

  • How Market Liquidity Shapes Price Movements

    Liquidity rarely gets attention until it disappears. By the time equities are sliding and risk assets are being repriced, underlying market conditions have often been tightening for weeks. The key is knowing what signals to monitor early on.

    This piece outlines how I view real-time liquidity. It’s not a step-by-step guide, but rather context for why I focus heavily on funding markets—and why shifts in those flows often appear in the data before they’re reflected in risk assets.

    Why Liquidity Ultimately Matters

    Markets don’t always react to underlying liquidity conditions right away. There are periods when liquidity is quietly tightening, yet equities continue to rally—often driven by falling volatility, dominant options flows, or a single macro catalyst overshadowing everything else.

    Still, liquidity tends to lead over time. Many significant risk-off episodes I’ve observed—such as crypto weakening ahead of equities or the S&P 500 stalling despite positive headlines—have been preceded by clear signs of tightening funding conditions. These signals may not offer immediate trading opportunities, but they are informative.

    The objective isn’t to generate a direct trade signal, but to bring visibility to forces that typically remain beneath the surface.

    What I Track

    Four key components tend to matter most: SOFR volumes, the Treasury General Account (TGA), bank reserves, and the reverse repo facility (RRP). Each offers a different lens on where cash sits, how it’s moving, and what it’s funding. Together, they form a real-time snapshot of liquidity across the U.S. financial system.

    Looking at rates alone isn’t sufficient. Volumes, balances, and the direction of flows carry more weight. So do secondary signals—like credit spreads, equity repo financing, Bitcoin’s price action, and usage of the standing repo facility—which either reinforce or challenge the primary data.

    The edge isn’t just understanding each piece in isolation, but integrating them into a cohesive, real-time view. That synthesis is what I focus on every day for subscribers.

    Why Today Isn’t 2023

    The most important structural change over the past two years is that the liquidity buffer the system leaned on in 2023 has largely been exhausted. Back then, when the Treasury issued debt to finance deficits, much of it was absorbed by idle cash sitting at the Fed—so the market impact was relatively muted.

    That cushion is now gone. Today, similar issuance is more likely to be funded with cash that would otherwise support bank reserves. The deficit may be the same, and the volume of bills unchanged, but the effect is different because the funding source has shifted.

    This is where much of the commentary falls short. Saying “the Fed isn’t doing QT anymore” misses the point. The real story lies in how the deficit is being financed—and those underlying mechanics can matter more than the Fed’s headline policy stance.

    Treasury Bills Outstanding vs Reverse Repo Facility

    When the Plumbing Moved First

    Three episodes are worth revisiting, because the order of events mattered: each time, stress showed up in the system’s plumbing before anything else.

    Take September 2019

    A widely documented reserve shortage unfolded as Treasury settlements and corporate tax payments landed in the same week, after reserves had already been declining for months. On September 17, overnight repo rates surged far above the Fed’s target range, forcing emergency liquidity operations. In the days prior, market price action looked calm—but beneath the surface, funding conditions had been tightening. The plumbing cracked first, rates reacted next, and equities only adjusted after the Fed stepped in, even though the strain had been building in funding markets for weeks.

    SOFR Vs Repo Rates

    March 2020

    The COVID shock ultimately spread far beyond funding markets, but in the early phase, the stress began in the plumbing. A global dash for dollars triggered indiscriminate selling across assets — even Treasuries weren’t spared. Funding conditions deteriorated rapidly and markets seized up, forcing the Fed to roll out emergency measures. The key takeaway: once funding breaks, correlations snap into place almost immediately, and everything starts moving together.

    NY Fed Standing Repo Facility

    November 2025

    Bitcoin started to roll over a couple of weeks before equities followed. That sequencing — crypto weakening ahead of broader risk-off — has shown up often enough across cycles to be useful as a confirming signal in liquidity analysis, even if it’s not a primary driver.

    Not every bout of market stress originates in the plumbing. Some are driven by earnings shocks, geopolitics, or policy shifts. Still, a notable portion of the larger equity drawdowns since 2018 have left clear traces in funding conditions—visible if you’re watching the right indicators.

    Fed Reserve Balance vs BTC

    Where the Model Falls Short

    This framework isn’t a crystal ball, and it has some clear limitations:

    • Market price action can diverge from liquidity signals for extended periods. Short-term forces — like zero-DTE options flows, single-name earnings catalysts, or volatility compression — can dominate and mask underlying funding stress.
    • Central bank intervention can quickly reset the landscape. If the Fed steps in to support reserves or tweaks facilities like the standing repo, signals can reverse abruptly.
    • Bitcoin doesn’t always behave as a pure risk asset. While it often tracks liquidity, there are moments — particularly when traditional safe havens lose credibility — where it decouples and complicates the read.
    • Finally, the Fed’s “ample reserves” narrative can lag reality. Policymakers may maintain that reserves are sufficient even as overnight funding markets begin to tighten, making real-time data a more reliable guide than official messaging.

    Why This May Matter Now

    A new Fed Chair is set to take over in mid-May. His stated preferences — lower rates, a smaller balance sheet, and less reliance on forward guidance — suggest a potential shift away from the reflexive “Fed put” mindset that has shaped markets for over a decade. If that transition plays out, the assumption that any funding stress will be met immediately with balance sheet support deserves a fresh look.

    At the same time, recent data points to tightening funding conditions. The direction mirrors setups seen ahead of past stress episodes — with September 2019 as a key reference, when a plumbing issue beneath an otherwise calm market quickly escalated within days.

    None of this guarantees an equity drawdown. But it may help explain why recent rallies feel flow-driven, why credit markets are showing subtle divergences, and why assets like precious metals and crypto have been soft.

    This is the framework I rely on day to day.

    For Daily Application

    The edge isn’t in the components themselves — it’s in reading them in real time and understanding when their interaction starts to matter for markets. Watching how SOFR, the TGA, and reserve levels are evolving right now, how they line up with signals from credit and FX basis, and how all of that compares with the price action in the tape. Then looking for the confirming cues that indicate whether a liquidity drain has already been absorbed — or is still ahead.

  • AUD/USD climbs toward 0.7170 as buyers anticipate a breakout from the current range amid a weaker US Dollar.

    • AUD/USD picks up dip-buying interest on Monday, supported by a mildly weaker US Dollar.
    • A hawkish stance from the RBA helps offset concerns over US–Iran tensions, lending strength to the Aussie.
    • Meanwhile, the technical outlook remains bullish as traders turn their attention to the upcoming FOMC decision.

    AUD/USD edges higher for a second straight session after a slight dip on Monday, reaching a three-day peak near the 0.7170 level during the Asian session. However, the pair continues to trade within a well-established range seen over the past couple of weeks, suggesting that bullish traders should remain cautious for now.

    The US Dollar remains under pressure, failing to attract strong demand despite ongoing tensions between the US and Iran and the stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants appear hesitant ahead of this week’s key FOMC meeting. At the same time, a broadly positive risk sentiment weakens the Greenback’s safe-haven appeal, while the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish stance provides additional support to the Aussie.

    From a technical standpoint, the recent sideways movement can be viewed as a bullish consolidation phase, following the rebound from the 100-day Simple Moving Average seen in March. Momentum indicators continue to support a constructive outlook, implying that the overall bias remains tilted to the upside and reinforcing expectations of a potential breakout.

    The Relative Strength Index stays above 60 without entering overbought territory, indicating ongoing buying pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in positive territory, confirming that the upward move is supported by solid momentum. Still, a clear break above the 0.7185–0.7190 resistance zone is needed to validate further gains.

    On the downside, any pullback is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity, with solid support expected ahead of the 0.7100 level. A decisive drop below this area, especially if accompanied by weakening momentum indicators, could signal the start of a corrective phase within the broader uptrend.

  • Focus pairs: silver, gold, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/MXN, USD/CAD, NASDAQ 100, BTC/USD.

    Silver

    Silver prices dropped sharply this week as interest rates remained the key driver. Ongoing uncertainty around Middle East tensions—despite some easing—continues to leave traders unsure, with no clear agreement yet between the U.S. and Iran.

    Table of prices silver 26/04/2026

    The $80 level is acting as resistance; a break above it could push prices toward $90, while $70 appears to be the support floor.

    Gold

    Gold prices have fluctuated throughout the week, with the region just above $4,600 emerging as a key level. Similar to silver, the market has shown strong sensitivity to interest rate movements. In particular, the U.S. 10-year yield remains crucial, with the 4.30% mark acting as an important threshold. Generally, when yields rise above 4.3%, it tends to put downward pressure on gold.

    Table of prices gold 26/04/2026

    EUR/USD

    The euro moved erratically throughout the week, briefly testing the 1.18 level before finishing slightly lower. Overall, it remains near the upper boundary of the range it has traded in since around this time last year, so no major breakout is expected

    Table of prices EUR/USD 26/04/2026

    That said, interest rates in both the United States and Germany are elevated beyond where they arguably should be, and combined with ongoing war-related news, they are creating significant market distortions. Even so, it’s notable that prices have remained within the same range for an extended period, and as we approach the upper boundary, selling pressure is beginning to re-emerge.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound traded within a relatively narrow range over the week, as traders weighed the potential end of the war and its implications for interest rates.

    The 1.35 level stands out as a key area—not only as a major psychological round number, but also as a point many market participants are watching closely. Overall, the market appears to be searching for direction.

    Table of prices GBP/USD 26/04/2026

    A break above last week’s high could open the door for a move toward the 1.3750 level. On the other hand, if the market pulls back, the 1.3350 area may become a likely target for sellers.

    USD/MXN

    The US dollar traded choppily against the Mexican peso during the week, testing the 17.5 level.

    This zone has previously acted as both support and resistance, suggesting strong market memory. A break above 17.50 could pave the way for a move toward the 17.8 level.

    Table of prices USD/MXN 26/04/2026

    A pullback from this point would likely signal continued consolidation for the US dollar between the 17 and 17.5 levels. While the interest rate differential still favors Mexico, any increase in risk aversion could boost demand for the dollar.

    NASDAQ 100

    The Nasdaq 100 posted another strong rally over the week, marking its fourth consecutive week of significant gains. Short-term pullbacks could present buying opportunities, especially on a bounce, for those looking to align with the upward momentum. The 26,250 level, which previously acted as resistance, is likely to serve as support if the market pulls back from here.

    Table of prices Nasdaq 100 26/04/2026

    It’s worth noting that much of the Nasdaq 100’s movement is being driven by developments in artificial intelligence, along with ongoing headlines out of the Middle East.

    BTC/USD

    Bitcoin moved higher over the week, though it still faces some downward pressure. The climb appears to be gradual, with the market likely aiming toward the $84,000 level—an area that previously acted as support and may now serve as resistance.

    Table of prices BTC/USD 26/04/2026

    USD/CAD

    The $72,000 level remains a key area on pullbacks, where buyers may step back in and provide support to push the market higher.

    Table of prices USD/CAD 26/04/2026

    The US dollar initially declined against the Canadian dollar but found support at the 200-week EMA, reversing course and forming a hammer pattern.

    A break above the 1.37 level could open the way for a move toward 1.38. The interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar, which should remain a key driver of direction.

  • Bitcoin surges above $78K, fueled by an extended Iran truce and strong institutional buying interest.

    Bitcoin climbed above $78,000 on Wednesday, supported by President Donald Trump’s extension of the Iran ceasefire and stronger institutional buying, lifting overall market sentiment.

    The leading cryptocurrency was last up 2.7% at $78,018.4 around 02:49 ET (06:49 GMT), after touching a 24-hour high of $78,430.4. It was also on track for a third consecutive day of gains.

    Trump announces an extension of the ceasefire with Iran

    U.S. President Donald Trump announced an open-ended extension of the Iran ceasefire, noting the decision was partly influenced by requests from Pakistani officials seeking additional time for peace talks in Islamabad.

    The extension remains unilateral, however, leaving uncertainty over whether Tehran will formally agree.

    While the ceasefire is in place, tensions persist. The U.S. continues its naval blockade of Iranian ports, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have yet to fully subside.

    Even so, markets viewed the move as a sign of near-term de-escalation. Oil prices declined, and the U.S. dollar weakened after recent gains.

    Analysts note that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving as both a risk asset and a hedge against geopolitical tensions, attracting inflows as investors balance easing risks with ongoing uncertainty.

    Strategy snapped up roughly $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin last week, marking one of its largest purchases to date.

    Strategy snapped up $2.5 billion in Bitcoin last week, reinforcing market momentum amid a fresh wave of institutional demand.

    The firm, Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR), revealed it purchased 34,164 BTC in the week ending April 19 at an average price of roughly $74,395 per coin. This brings its total holdings to around 815,000 bitcoins, acquired at a cumulative cost of approximately $61.6 billion—marking one of the largest buys in its history.

    To finance the acquisition, Strategy leaned heavily on capital markets, raising about $2.18 billion through the sale of high-yield preferred shares and another $366 million via common stock issuance. These preferred instruments, offering yields near 11.5%, have become a central funding mechanism, enabling the company to expand its Bitcoin position while aiming to minimize shareholder dilution.

    In the broader crypto market, most altcoins also moved higher on Wednesday, though gains remained modest. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, climbed 3.2% to $2,391.53, while XRP added 1.3% to $1.46. Solana, Cardano, and Polygon each rose around 2.5%, and Dogecoin gained 2.3% among meme tokens.

  • Gold hovers near its daily low as a stronger U.S. dollar pressures prices, with traders closely watching upcoming U.S.–Iran peace negotiations.

    • Gold comes under renewed selling pressure in the Asian session, though losses appear contained.
    • Persistent inflation concerns keep U.S. bond yields elevated, supporting the dollar and pressuring the metal.
    • However, growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts may limit further dollar strength and help support the non-yielding gold.

    Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure and trades below the $4,800 level in the early European session on Tuesday, though it stays above the one-week low touched a day earlier. Market participants remain doubtful about a potential US–Iran deal as tensions persist around the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy’s seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, followed by Iran’s renewed closure of the key shipping route, has supported crude oil prices. This, in turn, has reignited inflation concerns, boosted the US dollar, and weighed on gold.

    That said, stronger gains in the dollar appear limited as expectations for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve continue to fade. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in roughly a 45–50% chance of a rate cut by year-end, which could cap USD strength and provide underlying support for non-yielding gold. Meanwhile, traders are likely to remain cautious amid uncertainty over whether US–Iran peace talks will materialize, making it wise to wait for clear follow-through selling before expecting deeper losses in XAU/USD.

    US President Donald Trump stated that American negotiators will travel to Pakistan for another round of discussions with Iran in an effort to extend a fragile ceasefire set to expire on Wednesday. However, Iranian officials remain reluctant to engage in talks under current conditions, citing the ongoing US blockade. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf emphasized that Iran will not negotiate under pressure, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pointed to continued US ceasefire violations as a key obstacle to diplomacy. Despite this, reports indicate that an Iranian delegation may still head to Islamabad for negotiations.

    Going forward, markets will stay highly sensitive to developments in the US–Iran situation, which could drive volatility across asset classes. In addition, traders will look to testimony from Fed Chairman-designate Kevin Warsh for further direction. Given the mixed fundamental backdrop, caution remains warranted before taking strong directional positions in gold.

    Gold (XAU/USD) – 4-hour timeframe chart

    The bullish outlook for gold remains intact as long as price stays above the 200-period EMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement, a zone that now acts as a confluence support after previously serving as resistance.

    The metal continues to show a constructive short-term tone, holding above the 200 EMA at $4,784.25. Just below, the 50% retracement of the March decline at $4,762.13 reinforces this support area, suggesting underlying buying interest. However, momentum indicators are relatively neutral rather than strongly trending—RSI is hovering around 51, while MACD remains slightly in negative territory—indicating that although bulls are still in control structurally, upside momentum is not particularly strong at the moment.

    In terms of levels, immediate support lies at the 200 EMA ($4,784.25), followed by the 50% retracement at $4,762.13. A decisive break below this zone could open the door to deeper Fibonacci support levels at $4,607.05 and $4,415.17, with the broader downside target near $4,105.01. On the upside, resistance begins at the 61.8% retracement level at $4,917.21, with further barriers at $5,138.01 (78.6%) and the cycle high around $5,419.25, where rejection could potentially limit further gains in the current bullish phase.

  • Bitcoin slips as escalating tensions with Iran fuel wider instability across the cryptocurrency market.

    Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell 2.02% to trade at 75,064.2 as of 5:46 ET (10:46 GMT), declining after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered a broader risk-off mood across global markets.

    Often described as “digital gold,” the asset has struggled to retain its safe-haven status amid the uncertainty, contributing to a wider crypto sell-off as investors move to reevaluate their portfolio exposure.

    Geopolitical pressures and institutional flows

    Bitcoin’s recent drop is closely tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East. With the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising concerns about a broader regional conflict, global markets have turned cautious, prompting investors to shift capital away from riskier, more volatile assets.

    Even so, institutional activity tells a more layered story. Bitcoin ETFs have recently attracted $663.91 million in inflows, lifting total net assets in the segment beyond the $100 billion mark.

    At the same time, Ether ETFs recorded $127.49 million in inflows, extending their streak to seven consecutive days and pointing to steady growth in institutional demand.

    Wider fund participation also remains visible, as XRP saw $13.74 million in inflows while Solana drew $13.04 million, highlighting continued interest across a range of crypto ETF products.

    Industry developments deepen the downturn

    Beyond the immediate geopolitical shock, underlying structural challenges within the digital asset space have further weighed on investor sentiment.

    Recent reports indicate continued regulatory uncertainty surrounding decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, dampening enthusiasm across ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana. This lack of clarity has created a feedback loop of caution, indirectly pressuring Bitcoin as investors adopt a more defensive, wait-and-see approach.

    The cautious mood is reinforced by thin market conditions. Data shows a noticeable decline in stablecoin liquidity across major centralized exchanges, reducing depth in order books. In such an environment, price swings tend to be more pronounced, leaving Bitcoin increasingly exposed to sharp drops and forced liquidations during periods of heightened stress.

    Adding to the pressure, persistent inflation concerns and evolving interest rate expectations continue to weigh on risk assets. With yields on safer instruments remaining relatively high, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin increases, discouraging the kind of aggressive accumulation that previously supported its upward momentum.

    Crypto prices today: altcoins decline after Strait closure

    Altcoins also moved lower following Iran’s announcement, mirroring the broader market downturn triggered by renewed geopolitical tensions.

    Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, dropped 2.89% to $2,307.42, while XRP, ranked third, fell 2.12% to $1.4198.

    Meanwhile, Solana and Cardano recorded steeper losses of 3.40% and 3.54%, respectively.

    Among meme coins, Dogecoin slid 3.40%, reflecting widespread weakness across the altcoin segment.

  • Bitcoin trims its gains after momentarily surpassing $76K during a wider rally in risk assets.

    Bitcoin pulled back slightly on Tuesday, falling below $75,000 after briefly reaching a one-month high, but remained broadly higher as optimism over potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks lifted risk sentiment. A better-than-expected U.S. producer inflation report also supported the positive mood.

    As of 17:35 ET (21:35 GMT), the leading cryptocurrency was up 1.2% at $74,127.8, after earlier climbing to $76,043.7 during the session.

    Bitcoin climbs as a broader risk-on sentiment lifts markets.

    Bitcoin climbed alongside a broader risk-on trend, mirroring a rebound in global markets as equities posted solid gains. S&P 500 rose over 1%, while Nasdaq Composite advanced as investors continued to favor technology stocks amid optimism around artificial intelligence.

    Crypto sentiment was further supported by falling oil prices, which dropped below $100 per barrel after recent spikes, encouraging demand for riskier assets.

    Markets were also reassured by ongoing diplomatic signals between the United States and Iran, despite a lack of progress in recent talks. Reports suggested both sides are considering another round of direct negotiations to extend a fragile ceasefire. Donald Trump noted that further discussions could take place within days in Pakistan.

    Meanwhile, the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz entered its second day, with United States Central Command reporting that no vessels had passed through in the first 24 hours, as restrictions targeted ships linked to Iranian ports.

    U.S. producer prices increased in March, but by less than expected.

    U.S. producer prices increased in March, but not as much as expected. Alongside ongoing Middle East tensions, the inflation data gave investors some reassurance after a volatile period.

    The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.5% compared to the previous month and 4.0% year-on-year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics—both below forecasts of 1.1% and 4.6%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, edged up 0.1% month-on-month and 3.8% annually.

    The annual headline increase was the highest since February 2023, largely driven by a sharp 8.5% jump in energy prices during the month. This trend mirrored the consumer price index data released earlier, where rising oil prices linked to the Iran conflict lifted overall inflation, while core inflation remained relatively stable.

    Deutsche Börse acquires a $200 million stake in the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken.

    Deutsche Boerse has invested $200 million in Payward, the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, by purchasing existing shares. This gives the German exchange operator a 1.5% fully diluted stake in the firm.

    The move strengthens a strategic partnership between the two companies first announced in December 2025, which focuses on connecting traditional financial markets with the digital asset space.

    According to Deutsche Boerse, the collaboration will cover areas such as trading, custody, settlement, collateral management, and tokenized assets—aiming to provide institutional clients with smoother, more integrated access to both traditional and crypto markets.

    Strategy Inc purchases 13,927 BTC using proceeds from preferred stock sales.

    Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR) announced Monday that it purchased 13,927 bitcoins last week for roughly $1 billion, partly financed through the sale of preferred shares, according to a U.S. SEC filing. The company issued about 10.03 million shares of its variable-rate Series A perpetual preferred stock, generating approximately $1 billion in net proceeds. These funds were used to acquire Bitcoin at an average price of around $71,902 per coin. With this latest purchase, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings increased to 780,897 BTC, acquired at a combined cost of $59.02 billion.

    Crypto prices today: altcoins rally, with Ethereum surging 7%.

    Most altcoins trimmed earlier gains on Tuesday.

    The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, rose 2.6% to $2,319.42, while third-ranked XRP gained 0.7% to $1.3604.

    Solana turned lower, slipping 0.3%, whereas Cardano edged up 0.4%.

    Among meme coins, Dogecoin posted a modest 0.5% increase.

  • Bitcoin holds firm around $71K despite stalled U.S.–Iran peace talks in Islamabad.

    Bitcoin (BitfinexUSD) is under pressure this Sunday, falling 1.80% to $71,603.9 at 05:19 EST (10:00 GMT) after high-level U.S.–Iran peace talks in Islamabad ended without a breakthrough, adding fresh geopolitical uncertainty to global markets.

    The collapse of the 21-hour negotiations has pushed traditional energy prices higher, while Bitcoin remains relatively resilient, staying above key technical support levels as investors reassess its role as a potential “digital hedge” amid risks of renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf.

    Geopolitical stalemate vs. digital scarcity

    The departure of Vice President JD Vance from Pakistan without securing a nuclear commitment from Tehran has effectively dashed hopes for an immediate “safe passage” deal for global energy flows.

    Historically, spikes in geopolitical tension have often supported Bitcoin, as it operates beyond the reach of maritime chokepoints or sovereign sanctions. Analysts suggest that with the April 8 ceasefire still fragile, the so-called “war premium” is increasingly shifting toward decentralized assets.

    “Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me,” President Trump said after the talks, signaling a potential pivot toward rearming regional allies.

    Despite the diplomatic breakdown, market data indicates that BTC has avoided a panic sell-off, implying that much of the regional risk had already been priced in following the initial strikes in March.

    ETF inflows and the “institutional floor”

    While macro headlines continue to dominate, Bitcoin’s internal market structure is being reinforced by a strong վերադարձ of institutional demand. Recent exchange data highlights a notable surge in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

    This trend suggests that large investors are taking advantage of geopolitical uncertainty to build positions. The presence of an “institutional floor” has helped stabilize prices, even as traditional risk assets come under pressure from rising long-term Treasury yields.

    At the same time, the crypto market is benefiting from increasing regulatory clarity across Asia. Newly introduced licensing frameworks for digital asset service providers in key financial hubs are enabling fresh capital inflows, helping to offset more cautious sentiment in Western markets.

    With diplomatic efforts in Islamabad now stalled, attention for the rest of the quarter is shifting toward how sustained institutional inflows will interact with declining liquid supply on exchanges—potentially setting up a supply squeeze if Middle East tensions continue.

    Crypto prices today: altcoins mostly decline

    The broader crypto market showed mixed performance, with most altcoins moving lower even as Bitcoin held relatively steady.

    The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, slipped 1.27% to $2,215.02, while XRP edged down 1.28% to $1.3306.

    Among other major tokens, Solana dropped 2.70%, Cardano fell 3.95%, and BNB declined 2.06% to $594.30.

    In the memecoin segment, Dogecoin lost 1.84%, while $TRUMP recorded a smaller dip of 0.69%.

    Sources: Simon Mugo

  • Markets in Focus – BTC/USD, NASDAQ 100, USD/MXN, DAX, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, Silver, Gold

    BTC/USD

    One of the most compelling charts this week is Bitcoin. Despite widespread hesitation and global risk aversion, it has remained relatively resilient instead of breaking down. In addition, Wall Street–based ETFs tied to Bitcoin continue to attract inflows, even as overall market sentiment stays cautious.

    That said, this suggests a level of resilience in the Bitcoin market that shouldn’t be overlooked. At some point, the market will need to make a longer-term move, and based on current signals, it appears to be leaning toward a bullish outcome.

    This outlook is somewhat logical, considering Bitcoin has already dropped around 50% from its highs. For long-term holders, that kind of correction often signals a potential buying opportunity. While I’m not strongly bullish on Bitcoin overall, the technical picture indicates that a move above $76,000 could quickly become significant.

    NASDAQ 100

    The Nasdaq 100 moved higher over the week, largely driven by the ceasefire announcement, which boosted overall risk appetite. By the end of the week, the index was hovering around the 25,000 level. However, with key talks taking place in Pakistan over the weekend, market sentiment could shift quickly as early as Monday. For this reason, I remain optimistic about equities—but only with a strong sense of caution.

    USD/MXN

    The US dollar declined sharply against the Mexican peso over the week as risk appetite returned. It’s also important to note the significant interest rate gap between the two economies, which encourages traders to short this pair, as holding Mexican pesos allows them to earn daily carry.

    It now appears that the pair is on the verge of breaking down toward the 17 peso level. However, that level may not matter much at this stage due to the upcoming meeting in Pakistan over the weekend. If the outcome is negative, the US dollar is likely to strengthen; if not, the current downward trend should continue.

    DAX

    Germany’s DAX ended the week in positive territory, although it closed on a weak note on Friday. This likely reflects caution ahead of the weekend meeting, as Germany remains highly sensitive to energy supply risks—particularly LNG from Qatar and crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption there could create significant challenges for its industrial sector. As a result, many traders appear to be locking in profits and reducing exposure ahead of potentially impactful developments from the talks in Pakistan.

    USD/CAD

    The US dollar has declined against the Canadian dollar and is now hovering around both the 50-week EMA and the 200-day EMA, making a pause at this level quite reasonable. As with other markets, Monday’s open will likely be influenced by developments in Islamabad. Overall, this appears to be a market attempting to establish support before potentially moving higher. The 1.3750 level stands out as a key area to watch for a possible bounce if the pair continues to pull back, while the 1.40 level remains a significant resistance to the upside.

    EUR/USD

    The euro posted a solid rally over the week, largely supported by improving risk appetite. It has now climbed above the 1.17 level for the first time in about five weeks. If this momentum holds, the next target to watch would be the 1.18 level.

    The 1.18 level represents a major resistance zone. However, if the talks between Iran and the United States produce positive outcomes, it could trigger a broad relief rally—potentially pushing this market higher along with others.

    Silver

    Silver has been volatile but clearly positive over the week as it continues to search for a bottom. The market is likely to remain choppy, and while a larger move will eventually take shape, it may not be the ideal time to take on significant positions.

    Interest rates will remain a key driver here, so it’s important to watch the US 10-year yield closely. Generally, a move above 4.30% tends to be negative for this market—though it’s not a definitive rule, just one of several influencing factors. Additionally, developments coming out of Islamabad and the ongoing talks are likely to have a significant impact on interest rate expectations, which will in turn affect price action here.

    Gold

    The gold market has also moved higher, but this seems to have caught many traders off guard, as the main driver has been interest rates rather than geopolitical fear. Many people are puzzled by gold’s weakness during times of conflict, but the explanation lies in the bond market—yields are now significantly higher than before, prompting portfolio managers to shift allocations toward interest-bearing assets instead of gold.

    I remain bullish on gold over the longer term, but I also recognize that a renewed spike in yields—possibly triggered by disappointing outcomes from the talks in Islamabad—could push the market down toward the $4,600 level. On the upside, the $5,000 mark stands out as the first major resistance zone.

    Sources: Lewis

  • Bitcoin climbs above $72K as US–Iran negotiations and upcoming CPI data take center stage.

    Bitcoin advanced on Friday as crypto markets turned cautiously optimistic ahead of potential U.S.–Iran ceasefire talks, while expectations surrounding key inflation data kept sentiment restrained.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency gained 1.6% to $72,159.1 by 02:05 ET (06:05 GMT) and was on track for a 7.3% weekly rise, supported by improving risk appetite.

    Bitcoin also drew support from hopes of more favorable U.S. crypto regulation, although progress on the CLARITY Act still appeared uncertain.

    Ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran remained in sharp focus amid mixed and conflicting signals.

    The discussions, reportedly scheduled to take place in Pakistan in the coming days, follow a conditional ceasefire agreement reached earlier this week. However, tensions quickly resurfaced as Iran accused the U.S. and Israel of violating the deal and called for Lebanon to be included in any broader peace framework.

    Iranian state media also denied reports that its delegates had already arrived in Pakistan, saying negotiations would remain on hold until clearer assurances regarding Lebanon were provided.

    Meanwhile, Iran’s continued restriction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz drew criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump. Tehran has also floated the idea of imposing tolls on passage through the waterway, a proposal Washington has rejected.

    The two sides remain deeply divided, with Iran resisting U.S. demands to halt its nuclear program and surrender uranium stockpiles. The ongoing uncertainty over the conflict and its economic implications has weighed on risk assets in recent weeks, though crypto markets have shown relative resilience compared to other sectors.

    Crypto prices today: Altcoins gain as markets await CPI data

    Broader cryptocurrency prices edged higher on Friday, mirroring Bitcoin’s gains, although upside was capped by caution ahead of key U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation data due later in the day.

    Headline CPI inflation is expected to have accelerated in March, partly driven by rising global oil and gas prices amid the Iran conflict. Stronger inflation would reduce the Federal Reserve’s incentive to cut interest rates, a development typically negative for speculative assets.

    Among major tokens, Ethereum (Ether), the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 0.1% to $2,184.32, while XRP gained 0.6% to $1.3411.

    Meanwhile, Solana, Cardano, and BNB traded in a narrow range, alongside memecoins such as Dogecoin and $TRUMP, which also showed little movement.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Bitcoin edges up slightly after Pakistan requests Trump to delay the Iran deadline.

    Bitcoin edged higher on Tuesday, recovering from earlier losses as risk appetite improved after Pakistan urged President Donald Trump to extend his deadline for Iran to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz.

    Market sentiment had previously been weighed down by stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and Trump’s warning that Iran could face severe consequences if no agreement was reached by his deadline.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last trading 0.5% higher at $69,845.4 as of 17:43 ET (21:43 GMT).

    Pakistan calls for a deadline extension and proposes a two-week ceasefire.

    Pakistan, now a key intermediary between the U.S. and Iran, said diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East conflict are advancing steadily and could yield meaningful results in the near term.

    Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif urged President Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks to give negotiations more time, while also calling on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the same period as a goodwill gesture. He further appealed to all sides to observe a two-week ceasefire to create space for diplomacy and work toward a lasting resolution.

    According to Reuters, Tehran is responding positively to the proposal, while Axios reported that Trump has been informed of Pakistan’s initiative, citing the White House press secretary.

    Trump’s Tuesday night deadline approaches.

    Earlier on Tuesday, Trump warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” while expressing reluctance but suggesting the outcome seemed likely. He had already threatened to strike Iran’s bridges and power infrastructure if no deal was reached by his 20:00 ET deadline.

    He also insisted that any ceasefire must include Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been closed since the conflict began, pushing global oil prices higher.

    Reuters reported that Iran denied any negotiations with the U.S., accusing Washington of seeking surrender under pressure. Meanwhile, Iran’s Tasnim news agency said Tehran could target additional oil facilities, including those linked to Saudi Aramco, if U.S. attacks on energy infrastructure proceed.

    An analyst at Nexo Dispatch noted that markets remain cautious rather than panicked, with investors waiting for the deadline to pass before taking a clearer stance.

    Inflation data due later this week is in focus.

    Bitcoin has increasingly moved in line with overall risk sentiment, as geopolitical tensions overshadow earlier optimism about diplomatic progress.

    Attention is now shifting to upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the March consumer price index due Friday. Rising energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict are expected to lift inflation, which could strengthen expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer.

    Such a backdrop may weigh on Bitcoin, as the asset typically underperforms in a high-rate environment.

    According to Nexo’s Kalchev, ongoing energy-driven price pressures mean each inflation reading this week carries outsized importance for crypto—cooler data could revive hopes for rate cuts, while stronger figures would reinforce the higher-for-longer outlook.

    Bitcoin ETFs record their largest daily inflows since February.

    Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their largest daily inflows since late February on Monday, as investors positioned ahead of the Iran deadline.

    The funds saw a total of $471.3 million in inflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $181.9 million. Fidelity’s FBTC and ARKB followed, attracting $147.3 million and $118.8 million, respectively, according to SoSoValue. Notably, no ETF reported any outflows during the session.

    Crypto prices today: altcoins track Bitcoin higher

    Most altcoins also rebounded on Tuesday, moving in line with Bitcoin’s gains.

    Ethereum edged up 0.1% to $2,141.62, while XRP rose slightly by 0.1% to $1.3366. Solana gained 1.7%, and Cardano increased 0.4%. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin advanced 1.6%.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Bitcoin falls below $69K as Trump’s Iran threat weighs on risk appetite.

    Bitcoin slipped below $69,000 on Tuesday as risk sentiment weakened ahead of a deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or risk military action.

    The cryptocurrency was last down 0.8% at $68,525.1 as of 03:06 ET (07:06 GMT).

    It had briefly climbed above $70,000 on Monday on hopes of a ceasefire, but was unable to sustain the gains.

    Traders on edge as Trump’s deadline for Iran draws near, stoking fears of U.S. strikes and market volatility.

    Markets are bracing for possible U.S. strikes on Iran as a deadline set by President Donald Trump approaches.

    Sentiment worsened after Iran rejected a U.S.-backed ceasefire plan, instead calling for broader terms, increasing fears of escalation.

    Trump has warned Iran could be “taken out” if it fails to comply by his 8 p.m. ET deadline, including potential strikes on critical infrastructure such as power plants and bridges.

    The standoff has rattled global markets, pushing oil above $110 per barrel as concerns grow over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude supply.

    Rising energy prices have intensified inflation worries and boosted demand for safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar.

    Bitcoin has been trading more closely with overall risk sentiment, with geopolitical tensions outweighing earlier hopes for diplomatic progress.

    Attention is now shifting to upcoming U.S. inflation data, especially Friday’s CPI report, which is expected to show upward pressure from higher energy costs—potentially keeping interest rates elevated for longer, a backdrop that could weigh further on Bitcoin.

    Most altcoins extended losses on Tuesday as risk-off sentiment persisted in crypto markets.

    Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 1.5% to $2,103.92, while XRP dropped 2.4% to $1.31.

    Solana and Polygon each declined about 3%, and Cardano lost more than 4%.

    Among meme tokens, Dogecoin also fell 1.5%.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Bitcoin edges up at the start of April on news that Iran has sought a ceasefire, according to Trump

    Bitcoin edged slightly higher on Wednesday, trimming earlier gains but still holding just above flat as risk assets benefited from optimism over de-escalation in the Middle East. President Donald Trump stated that Iran’s new leadership had reportedly requested a ceasefire.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency had finished March in the prior session with a gain of nearly 2%, ending a five-month losing streak marked by significant declines.

    Bitcoin was up 0.3% at $68,478.6 as of 17:26 ET (21:26 GMT).

    Trump says Iran has asked for a ceasefire, but U.S. will only consider it once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

    Trump suggested a possible end to the conflict, claiming on Truth Social that “Iran’s New Regime President, much less radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!”

    He added that the U.S. would “consider” the request once the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free, and clear,” warning that until then, “we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages.”

    If verified by Iran, the statement would signal a notable step toward de-escalation, though uncertainty remains over the Strait of Hormuz—a key energy route handling about one-fifth of global oil and gas flows—which has been effectively disrupted since the conflict began, driving global oil prices higher.

    The remarks followed Trump’s earlier comments on Tuesday that the U.S. planned to wind down military operations against Iran within two to three weeks, arguing that Washington had already met its objectives, including damaging Iran’s nuclear ambitions and contributing to regime change in Tehran.

    He also suggested that Iran would not need to formally agree to a deal to end the war, leaving markets uncertain about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Reports this week indicated the U.S. may leave any reopening effort to European and Gulf allies rather than take direct action.

    Rising energy prices tied to the conflict have been a key inflation concern for markets throughout March, fueling expectations of a more hawkish stance from global central banks—an outcome typically negative for speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

    Google research highlights potential cryptocurrency vulnerabilities linked to quantum computing.

    In a recent white paper, Google researchers warned that cryptocurrencies may be more exposed to advances in quantum computing than previously believed. They noted that quantum machines could potentially undermine elliptic curve cryptography—the encryption method underlying Bitcoin.

    Their analysis suggests that breaking this cryptographic system could require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits on a superconducting quantum computer, about 20 times lower than earlier estimates. Although such hardware does not yet exist in practice, the researchers cautioned it could become feasible by around 2029.

    They also encouraged the crypto industry to begin preparing a shift toward post-quantum cryptographic systems to safeguard blockchain networks. The study included contributions from organizations such as Coinbase, the Stanford Institute for Blockchain Research, and the Ethereum Foundation.

    Altcoins gain ground today as hopes of de-escalation in Iran tensions lift market sentiment.

    Broader crypto markets climbed on expectations that the conflict could be winding down.

    Ethereum (Ether) rose 2.7% to $2,159.79, while XRP gained 1.1% to $1.3550.

    Solana traded slightly higher, and Cardano advanced 3.6%, while BNB slipped 0.4%.

    In memecoins, Dogecoin added 0.8%, whereas $TRUMP declined 0.6%.

    Despite a broadly flat-to-weaker March driven by war-related risk aversion, altcoins generally held up better than many other speculative assets.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Bitcoin is poised to post a slight gain in March, potentially ending a five-month streak of losses.

    Bitcoin edged higher on Tuesday, lifted by improved sentiment across risk assets amid renewed hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was also on track to post a monthly gain for March, potentially ending a five-month losing streak. By 18:04 ET (22:04 GMT), Bitcoin had climbed 2.1% to $68,197.3.

    Fighting in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran showed little sign of slowing, as exchanges of strikes continued across the Gulf region. However, reports suggested that President Donald Trump is weighing a potential reduction in U.S. military involvement, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. While such a move could hint at partial de-escalation, ongoing disruptions to energy supply are likely to persist, raising inflation risks and keeping global monetary policy tight—conditions that typically weigh on speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, Iran signaled it could be open to ending the conflict if security guarantees are provided.

    Separately, researchers at Google warned that advances in quantum computing may threaten current cryptographic systems sooner than expected. They noted that future quantum machines could potentially break elliptic curve cryptography—the foundation of blockchain security—using fewer resources than previously believed, urging the crypto industry to transition toward quantum-resistant solutions before such risks materialize.

    Despite volatility, Bitcoin was still heading for a modest gain in March, although it remained well below its yearly highs and was down roughly 22% year-to-date. Performance across altcoins was mixed: Ether looked set to rise nearly 7% and end a six-month losing streak, while XRP, Solana, and Cardano posted declines, with the latter seeing the steepest drop. Meme tokens also underperformed, with notable losses across the segment.

    Overall, digital assets appeared to close out a turbulent quarter on a steadier footing, with total market capitalization hovering around $2.3 trillion and signs of renewed institutional inflows offering some support to the market.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Bitcoin ticks up above $66.5K despite escalating tensions in the Iran conflict.

    Bitcoin edged higher on Monday as investors digested mixed signals from both the U.S. and Iran regarding the ongoing Middle East conflict.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency had logged a two-week losing streak by Friday, with broader risk assets under pressure since the war began.

    As of 18:13 ET (22:13 GMT), Bitcoin was up 1.4% at $66,734.8.

    Iran escalation in focus

    Markets on Monday signaled a worsening conflict in Iran, particularly after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi group entered the fray by launching missiles at Israel over the weekend.

    Their involvement risks opening a new front, given their ability to carry out attacks in the Red Sea.

    Separately, President Donald Trump warned he could target key Iranian energy infrastructure, including Kharg Island, if Tehran fails to reach an agreement with the U.S.

    Trump said Washington was engaged in “serious discussions with a new, and more reasonable, regime,” though he added that failure to strike a deal—and reopen the Strait of Hormuz—could lead to sweeping attacks on Iran’s power plants, oil fields, and desalination facilities.

    Iran has denied any direct negotiations. State media reported that while messages had been relayed through intermediaries, Tehran rejected U.S. demands as “excessive” and “illogical,” citing foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei.

    The White House later said public statements differed significantly from private communications, maintaining that talks were still ongoing.

    Meanwhile, crypto markets began the week on a steadier note. Total market capitalization rose 1% over the past 24 hours to $2.32 trillion, despite renewed concerns over Middle East tensions, according to Dessislava Ianeva of Nexo Dispatch. She noted that geopolitical developments continue to drive short-term volatility and heighten the importance of upcoming macroeconomic data.

    Strategy may pause Bitcoin buying streak

    Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, may have skipped adding to its holdings last week, according to a Coindesk report.

    Executive Chair Michael Saylor typically hints at upcoming purchases in a Sunday post on X, followed by a formal announcement on Monday. This time, however, his post focused on promoting Strategy’s preferred equity offerings instead.

    If confirmed, the pause would break a 13-week buying streak dating back to late December, during which the company accumulated a total of 90,831 Bitcoin, Coindesk said.

    Crypto prices moved higher on Monday, with altcoins following Bitcoin’s upward trend.

    The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, gained 3.1% to $2,034.71, while XRP rose 0.8% to $1.3282. BNB, Solana, and Cardano posted increases of 1.2%, 2.6%, and 2.7%, respectively.

    Among meme coins, Dogecoin edged up 1.2%, and $TRUMP jumped 2.9%.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Markets in focus: NASDAQ 100, USD/MXN, GBP/JPY, EUR/USD, Gold, BTC/USD, Natural Gas, USD/CHF

    NASDAQ 100

    The Nasdaq 100 attempted to rally early in the week but ultimately tumbled as market fear intensified. With U.S. interest rates continuing to rise, the index has now broken below the key 23,800 level.

    We are also trading below the 50-week EMA, and quite frankly, this is a market being driven almost entirely by the latest headlines out of Washington or Tehran, as they are causing sharp swings in interest rate expectations. As rates climb, they put significant pressure on technology stocks—and that dynamic is clearly playing out now.

    USD/MXN

    The U.S. dollar initially declined against the Mexican peso but has now formed a hammer pattern for the third consecutive week. This suggests the peso may start to weaken, and with U.S. interest rates rising, the negative swap cost associated with buying this pair becomes less of a burden.

    On the upside, the 50-week EMA is near the 18.29 level, with the 18.50 area as the next likely target. If the pair pulls back from here, pay close attention to next week’s candlestick formation, as it would take significant downside pressure on the U.S. dollar to shift the trend. While the interest rate differential makes me hesitant to buy the dollar against the peso, the market still appears to be attempting a rally.

    GBP/JPY

    The British pound edged higher against the Japanese yen this week, and the key level to watch now is 214 yen, which has acted as a significant barrier. A break above this level would likely open the door for further upside.

    Short-term pullbacks should continue to present buying opportunities, but there is always the risk of intervention from the Bank of Japan. That said, it’s likely a challenging task for the central bank to prevent the yen from weakening significantly. The ongoing interest rate differential will keep driving yen-denominated pairs higher, with the British pound standing out as a key beneficiary.

    EUR/USD

    The euro has been quite volatile this week, ultimately forming something resembling a shooting star. We remain within the same range that’s held for some time, suggesting little has fundamentally changed. However, a breakdown below the 1.14 level could trigger a sharp strengthening in the U.S. dollar.

    In that scenario, you’d likely look to buy the U.S. dollar against most currencies—not just the euro—since this pair often acts as a broader signal for how the greenback performs globally. On the other hand, if we break to the upside and clear this past week’s highs, that would be broadly dollar-negative and could pave the way for a move toward the 1.18 level.

    Gold (Xau/Usd)

    Gold prices dropped sharply over the week but staged a solid recovery. A large weekly hammer is beginning to form, though a break above $4,600 is needed to confirm strong momentum. While there are many factors supporting further gains, rising U.S. interest rates remain a key headwind.

    Rising interest rates remain a significant headwind, weighing on gold despite ongoing geopolitical tensions that could otherwise push prices higher. A drop below the $4,000 level would be severely bearish, but for now, the market appears to be attempting a rebound.

    BTC/USD

    Bitcoin has been a bit weak over the week, but it’s still holding within the same range. Given the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, that actually counts as relatively strong performance. The price is currently hovering around the 200-week EMA, a key long-term support level.

    The $72,000 level continues to act as resistance, while $60,000 below remains a solid support zone. Overall, the market is quite choppy, but it appears to be in the process of building a base for a potential longer-term move.

    Natural Gas

    Natural gas declined over the week but has shown a modest rebound. However, it’s likely a market retail traders should avoid for now, as demand is dropping sharply.

    While Europe may continue to face supply challenges, this is seasonally a weak period for natural gas demand. Many retail traders also overlook that they are trading a U.S.-centric contract. With spring approaching, the typical strategy is to sell into rallies once signs of exhaustion appear.

    USD/CHF

    The U.S. dollar has gained solid ground against the Swiss franc and is now approaching the key 0.80 level. A breakout above that point could trigger a stronger upward move, but for now, such a scenario seems unlikely.

    In this environment, the outlook remains bullish, with interest rate differentials continuing to support further upside. The Swiss central bank also provides a form of downside protection, having signaled it may intervene if the franc strengthens excessively. This creates a favorable “buy on dips” setup, with the added benefit of earning daily swap.

    Sources: Lewis

  • Bitcoin is on track to finish the week lower as rising geopolitical tensions from the Iran war continue to dampen investor appetite for riskier assets.

    Bitcoin is heading for a weekly loss as escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on risk appetite, with the cryptocurrency falling over 4% to around $66,000 after a brief rally. The downturn has been driven by a shift from oil shock concerns to rising interest rate pressures, as the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran dampens expectations for near-term monetary easing.

    Additional pressure came from a $14 billion options expiry that triggered significant liquidations, while investors increasingly moved into the U.S. dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising Treasury yields. Elevated oil prices and inflation concerns have further reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

    Despite the bearish sentiment, some analysts view the pullback as a temporary reset rather than a fundamental breakdown, maintaining optimistic long-term targets. However, the technical outlook remains fragile, with key support levels under threat and potential for deeper declines if they are breached.

    Meanwhile, the broader crypto market also weakened, with Ether, XRP, Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin all posting notable losses. Until geopolitical tensions ease, Bitcoin is expected to remain volatile and largely influenced by macroeconomic and bond market developments rather than internal crypto factors.

    Sources: Simon Mugo

  • Bitcoin drops to $68K as Iran-related uncertainty lingers ahead of a $14 billion options expiry.

    Bitcoin declined on Friday, capping a subdued week as heightened risk aversion tied to the Iran conflict and the looming $14 billion options expiry kept traders cautious on cryptocurrencies.

    The world’s largest digital asset dropped 1.9% to $68,739.5 by 02:18 ET (06:18 GMT), putting it on track for a weekly loss of about 0.3%.

    Conflicting signals surrounding the U.S.-Israel conflict involving Iran dampened Bitcoin’s earlier momentum, particularly as Washington and Tehran issued mixed messages about the prospects for a ceasefire.

    Bitcoin is approaching a $14 billion options expiry on Friday, with most open positions set to settle on the Deribit exchange.

    Market attention is firmly on potential price volatility before and after the expiry, particularly against the backdrop of heightened uncertainty driven by the Iran conflict.

    According to Bloomberg, the “maximum pain” level—where the most options would expire worthless—is around $75,000. Large institutional players may try to steer prices toward this level to minimize payouts to option holders.

    However, as contracts roll off, hedging activity in the near term is expected to decline, potentially leaving Bitcoin more vulnerable to external shocks, especially geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

    Although Bitcoin initially gained following the onset of the conflict nearly a month ago, it has struggled to break past the $75,000 mark. This comes after the cryptocurrency had already fallen by as much as 50% from its late-2025 peak near $126,000.

    Much of the recent upward movement may also have been driven by hedging flows ahead of the options expiry.

    Crypto price today

    Cryptocurrency markets broadly moved lower on Friday, weighed down by mixed signals on a possible de-escalation in the Iran conflict, although prices stayed above their weekly lows.

    Ether, the second-largest digital asset, fell 2.6% to $2,066.74, while XRP declined 1.7% to $1.3628. Solana and Cardano each dropped more than 3%, with BNB down about 1%.

    Among memecoins, Dogecoin slipped 0.7%, while $TRUMP lost 1.1%.

    Market sentiment improved slightly after U.S. President Donald Trump extended the deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s key energy infrastructure and signaled that talks with Tehran were ongoing.

    Still, Iran said it was reviewing a 15-point ceasefire proposal from Washington and dismissed the prospect of direct negotiations.

    Overall, the conflict showed few clear signs of easing as it entered its fifth consecutive week.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Bank of America sees the U.S. dollar strengthening in Q2, as Donald Trump moves to add his signature to U.S. currency, ending a 165-year tradition.

    Bank of America expects the U.S. dollar to strengthen further in the second quarter.

    Bank of America expects the U.S. dollar to stay strong in the near term, supported by elevated energy prices and shifting expectations around central bank policy. The bank has upgraded its FX outlook, now projecting EUR/USD at 1.14 and USD/JPY at 160 by the end of Q2, reflecting continued short-term dollar strength.

    This revision comes as markets reassess the impact of the Middle East energy shock, with high oil prices and ongoing uncertainty boosting demand for the greenback. According to BofA strategists led by John Shin, rising energy costs and increasingly hawkish central banks—particularly the Federal Reserve—have played a key role in lifting the dollar.

    The conflict in Iran has also reshaped currency outlooks, with the dollar likely to gain further, especially against currencies of energy-importing economies. BofA’s commodities team now expects Brent crude to average around $80 in 2026, reinforcing inflationary pressures.

    Meanwhile, expectations for central bank policy have shifted, with markets pricing in modest Fed tightening and multiple rate hikes from other G10 central banks. Whether these hikes materialize will be crucial for FX movements in the coming months.

    BofA now sees dollar strength extending into Q2 rather than being confined to Q1, although it still anticipates a gradual weakening later in 2026 as energy markets stabilize. Longer term, the bank forecasts EUR/USD rising to 1.20 by year-end.

    However, risks remain tied to the trajectory of the energy shock—prolonged disruption could drive further dollar gains, while a quicker resolution may lead to a pullback as geopolitical risk premiums fade.

    U.S. Treasury plans to place Donald Trump’s signature on new dollar bills, breaking a 165-year tradition.

    U.S. paper currency will begin carrying President Donald Trump’s signature this summer, marking the first time a sitting president has signed American banknotes, according to the Treasury Department. The change, tied to the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence, also ends a 165-year tradition by removing the U.S. treasurer’s signature from the bills.

    The first redesigned $100 notes—featuring Trump’s signature alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—are set to be printed in June, with other denominations to follow. Existing notes bearing the signatures of former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Treasurer Lynn Malerba will remain in circulation for now.

    Malerba will be the last treasurer to appear on U.S. currency, ending a practice that dates back to 1861. The update is part of broader efforts by the Trump administration to place the president’s name and likeness on national symbols, including a newly approved commemorative coin.

    While the signatures will change, the overall design of U.S. banknotes will remain largely the same. Officials noted the Treasury has legal authority to adjust currency features, provided key elements—such as “In God We Trust” and portraits of deceased individuals—are preserved.

    Sources: Vahid Karaahmetovic and Reuters

  • Bitcoin climbs past $71K as easing tensions boost risk appetite.

    Bitcoin edged higher on Wednesday, staying above $71,000 as improving risk sentiment—driven by hopes of easing Middle East tensions—supported markets, even as Iran pushed back against a proposed U.S. ceasefire.

    The leading cryptocurrency rose about 1.1% to $71,129.8 by late trading, recovering after briefly slipping below $70,000 earlier in the week when escalating conflict triggered a broader risk-off move.

    Mixed signals from Washington and Tehran kept uncertainty elevated. President Donald Trump said the U.S. was in active discussions with Iran and suggested progress toward a deal, while reports pointed to a 15-point U.S. proposal aimed at ending the conflict. However, Iranian officials denied any formal negotiations, rejecting the ceasefire idea and instead calling for a complete end to the war, alongside conditions such as halting all attacks and securing recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

    Despite these contradictions, optimism over potential de-escalation weighed on oil prices, easing supply concerns and helping lift overall risk appetite—factors that have increasingly influenced Bitcoin’s price movements. The cryptocurrency’s earlier decline coincided with a surge in crude, highlighting its sensitivity to geopolitical and energy market shifts.

    Even amid volatility, Bitcoin has shown resilience around the $70,000 mark, supported by ongoing institutional demand and improving liquidity.

    In the U.K., the government announced new political funding rules, including caps on overseas donations and a ban on cryptocurrency contributions until proper regulations are in place—a move that could impact parties like Reform U.K., which had previously embraced bitcoin donations.

    Elsewhere in crypto markets, most altcoins traded higher. Ethereum rose 1% to $2,166.45, XRP added 0.2%, while Solana and Cardano gained between 1.1% and 1.7%. Dogecoin also climbed 1.5%.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Bitcoin dips on Iran uncertainty; analyst sees bottom.

    Bitcoin ticked down on Tuesday, giving back some of the previous session’s gains as investors weighed the chances of easing tensions in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. The крупнейшая cryptocurrency slipped 0.4% to $70,475.6 by late afternoon trading.

    According to Arthur Azizov of B2 Ventures, markets remain highly uncertain and need time to stabilize. He noted a growing perception that traditional assets are becoming more speculative than crypto—an unsettling signal for investors.

    Reports suggest potential de-escalation underway

    Reports after the U.S. market close suggested possible de-escalation efforts. Israeli Channel 12 said U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were exploring a ceasefire framework alongside a 15-point negotiation plan, while The New York Times indicated Washington had already sent a proposal to Iran. Earlier, President Donald Trump said strikes on Iran’s energy sector were being delayed following what he called productive talks. However, Iranian officials denied any negotiations, and conflicting headlines kept markets on edge, with oil prices rebounding sharply.

    Investors remain concerned that prolonged high oil prices could fuel global inflation and prompt tighter monetary policy, which typically weighs on non-yielding, risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin and gold. Still, Bitcoin has held up better than gold since the conflict began, with the latter pressured by profit-taking after hitting record highs.

    Bernstein says Bitcoin has likely hit its bottom

    Bernstein analysts believe Bitcoin has already bottomed and is poised to move higher. They argue the recent pullback reflects a reset in sentiment rather than weakening fundamentals, noting the absence of systemic stress seen in previous downturns. The firm also highlighted Bitcoin’s roughly 25% outperformance versus gold since late February, reinforcing its appeal as a portable, censorship-resistant asset during geopolitical uncertainty.

    Bernstein maintained an “outperform” rating and a $450 price target on Strategy, describing it as a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin exposure with a resilient balance sheet. The company, chaired by Michael Saylor, holds about 3.6% of total Bitcoin supply, worth around $53.5 billion.

    Across the broader crypto market, prices mostly declined alongside Bitcoin. Ethereum edged down to $2,153.02, XRP fell 1.2%, and Solana dropped 1.1%, while Cardano rose 1.7%. Among memecoins, Dogecoin gained 0.4% and $TRUMP climbed 3.3%.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Bitcoin jumps more than 4% as easing tensions with Iran boost risk appetite across markets.

    Bitcoin surged on Monday as investor appetite for risk improved amid hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East.

    Donald Trump highlighted “productive” discussions with Iran and announced that the U.S. would delay planned strikes on Iranian energy facilities for five days. Following these remarks, Bitcoin climbed 4.5% to $70,947.6 after previously trading lower.

    However, Iran’s Fars News Agency denied any form of communication with the U.S., stating that no direct or indirect talks had taken place. The report also suggested that Washington’s decision to postpone strikes came after Iran warned it would retaliate by targeting energy infrastructure across West Asia.

    Donald Trump highlights “productive” talks, raising hopes for a potential end to the conflict.

    Donald Trump claimed that the U.S. had held “productive” discussions with Iran, suggesting a potential path toward ending the conflict. In a social media post, he said both sides had made progress toward a “complete and total resolution” and announced a five-day delay in planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.

    However, officials in Tehran denied that any talks had taken place. Iran’s foreign ministry reiterated that its stance on the Strait of Hormuz and the conditions for ending the conflict remain unchanged.

    Reports from The Wall Street Journal, citing Fars News Agency, also stated there had been no direct or indirect communication between the two sides. According to Fars, the U.S. decision to hold off on strikes came after Iran warned it would retaliate by targeting similar infrastructure across West Asia.

    Trump later told reporters that the discussions had gone very well and that there was a strong possibility of reaching an agreement, though he emphasized that no outcome was guaranteed.

    Meanwhile, Justin Wolfers from the University of Michigan highlighted the uncertainty facing financial markets—whether to trust U.S. statements about negotiations or Iran’s denials.

    Earlier, Trump had warned that Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face military action. In response, Tehran threatened to shut down the waterway entirely and target key energy and water infrastructure in Gulf countries if attacked.

    Bitcoin outperforms gold as geopolitical tensions and interest rate concerns weigh more heavily on the precious metal.

    Bitcoin has outperformed gold and other precious metals this month since the conflict began, with bullion attracting limited demand despite rising geopolitical tensions.

    Bitcoin has gained nearly 6% in March, while spot gold has dropped around 17%. The precious metal came under pressure after hitting a record high in late January, triggering profit-taking and a broader unwinding of long positions.

    Even with the escalation involving Iran, gold failed to see strong safe-haven inflows, as concerns over persistent inflation and higher interest rates outweighed its appeal. In contrast, Bitcoin benefited from improving U.S. regulatory sentiment and renewed buying interest after previously falling as much as 50% from its October peak.

    However, on a year-to-date basis, gold still leads, rising about 2% compared to Bitcoin’s roughly 19% decline.

    Across the broader crypto market, gains followed Bitcoin’s move higher after Donald Trump’s announcement. Ethereum climbed 5.6%, while XRP rose 4.3%. Other major tokens including BNB, Solana, and Cardano also posted gains, alongside memecoins like Dogecoin.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Top 3 Price Forecast: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple – Bears strengthen control as BTC, ETH, and XRP break through critical support levels.

    • Bitcoin trades just under $68,000 on Monday, marking a decline of more than 6% compared to last week.
    • Ethereum has broken below a key support level, raising the risk of a deeper pullback.
    • XRP continues its downward trend, recording seven straight bearish candles.

    Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) remain under pressure on Monday after posting weekly losses of over 6%, 5%, and 4%, respectively. BTC has fallen below the $68,000 mark, while ETH and XRP are trading beneath key support levels. The three leading cryptocurrencies are beginning to show signs of weakness following these breakdowns, suggesting the potential for a deeper correction in the days ahead.

    Bitcoin shows early signs of bearish momentum

    Bitcoin is trading around $68,000 on Monday, with short-term sentiment tilting slightly bearish. The price continues to stay below the upper boundary of its channel near $72,600 while finding support around $65,900, indicating that sellers remain active during rallies within the current downward structure. Additionally, daily closes are still well below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which lie between $72,000 and $78,000, reinforcing the view that the market is undergoing a corrective phase within a broader range.

    Momentum has weakened, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart dropping toward the mid-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below its signal line and continues drifting toward the zero level—both signaling fading bullish strength after the rejection above $72,000.

    On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near the recent swing high around $69,000, followed by the channel ceiling just below $72,600. This area is further reinforced by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, creating a strong supply zone. A daily close above this confluence would be required to neutralize the current bearish bias and pave the way for a move toward $73,500 and higher.

    To the downside, key support lies near the channel base around $65,900. A breakdown below this level could open the door to $64,000 and then $62,500, where previous demand zones and the lower boundary of the recent range may draw in buyers.

    Ethereum deepens its pullback after failing to hold key support

    Ethereum is trading around $2,048 on Monday, with the short-term outlook remaining mildly bearish as price stays below the channel ceiling near $2,148. The asset continues to trade well under the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, positioned around $2,200 and $2,470, highlighting persistent downside pressure after the recent rebound failed to hold above $2,100.

    Momentum indicators point to further weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has eased to around 45, reflecting fading bullish strength, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below its signal line and turned negative, signaling increasing selling pressure.

    On the upside, initial resistance is located near the channel top around $2,148, reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $1,747.80 to $3,402.89 at $2,138. A decisive daily close above this zone could open the path toward the 38.2% retracement at $2,380, which aligns with the 50-day EMA and would help weaken the current bearish structure.

    On the downside, immediate support is seen at the $2,000 level, followed by the channel base and a key horizontal floor near $1,747. A break below this region would likely accelerate the broader decline, paving the way for a deeper move within the prevailing downtrend.

    XRP records seven straight bearish sessions

    XRP is trading below $1.39 as of Monday, continuing to move within a descending parallel channel that originated from the $2.83 peak. The price remains closer to the lower boundary near $1.09 than the upper limit around $1.90, keeping the broader outlook firmly bearish. Daily closes also sit well beneath the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, positioned between $1.49 and $1.67, reinforcing persistent downside pressure as rebounds struggle to test these dynamic resistance levels.

    Momentum indicators reflect weakening strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to around 43, staying below the midpoint and signaling subdued bullish momentum after the recent attempt to rise toward $1.54. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is trending toward the zero line, with the MACD line converging toward its signal line and a shrinking positive histogram—both suggesting fading upside momentum within the broader downtrend.

    On the downside, initial support is located near $1.30, a prior horizontal level that acts as the last meaningful cushion before the channel floor around $1.09. A break below this area could trigger a deeper decline within the prevailing bearish structure.

    To the upside, immediate resistance appears near the recent swing high around $1.45, followed by the psychological $1.50 level, where selling pressure aligns with the descending 50-day EMA. A daily close above this zone would be necessary to target the channel’s upper boundary near $1.90, which also coincides with a key long-term resistance level and would be critical in reversing the medium-term bearish bias.

    Sources: Manish Chhetri

  • Markets in focus: EUR/USD, Silver, Gold, BTC/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, NASDAQ 100, and DAX.

    EUR/USD

    The euro climbed during the week, testing the 1.16 level as both central banks tied to this pair held their meetings. However, the key takeaway is that the Federal Reserve is likely to stay more hawkish than previously expected, increasing the chances that the US dollar will remain stronger for an extended period.

    In fact, by Friday, even though the ECB had sounded somewhat more hawkish than expected, there were already signs of a shift in tone, with ECB member Villeroy indicating that a rate cut cannot be ruled out.

    Ongoing concerns over energy in the European Union also add downside risk—if energy issues persist, economic growth could slow. As a result, the euro may remain under pressure, with any short-term rallies likely to face selling pressure.

    Silver (XAG/USD)

    Silver prices dropped sharply over the week as rising U.S. interest rates weighed on the market, and that trend is likely to continue. As the week comes to a close, the focus is on holding above the $70 level—a key round number that carries strong psychological importance and is being closely watched by traders.

    If the market breaks below this support level, it could trigger significant selling pressure, potentially driving prices toward $65, and over the longer term, even down to $50.

    Overall, this is a market that may be hard to navigate, and it’s unlikely to see consistent upward momentum unless U.S. interest rates begin to stabilize.

    Gold (XAU/USD)

    The gold market is likely to behave similarly to silver, with the key difference being its safe-haven appeal. Because of that, gold may outperform silver—and frankly, that’s what I expect to happen.

    That said, outperformance is relative, and this week’s candlestick looks quite weak. I’d be watching the 4,500 level closely, with the 4,400 area below it acting as additional support.

    Any rally from here is likely to face selling pressure sooner or later, with 5,000 serving as a near-term ceiling. It’s only when U.S. interest rates fall meaningfully that gold can resume a stronger upward move. Still, looking at the longer-term charts, gold could drop another 1,000 and remain within a broader uptrend.

    BTC/USD

    Bitcoin initially attempted a breakout during the week but is having trouble holding above the 72,000 level. Still, it remains within a formation that suggests a possible reversal, although—like other markets—the outcome will largely depend on U.S. interest rates.

    If interest rates remain exceptionally high, it’s hard to see Bitcoin—being a high-risk asset—performing strongly in that environment.

    That said, I’m not expecting Bitcoin to collapse, but any upward move is likely to be gradual rather than sharp. If the trend is positive, it will probably be more of a slow grind higher than a rapid rally.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound climbed over the week, reaching up to test the key 1.35 level before pulling back. Overall, the market is likely to remain quite volatile, with the 1.3250 level acting as a support zone.

    It seems that traders are continuing to sell the British pound whenever signs of exhaustion appear, especially as ongoing energy concerns in the United Kingdom weigh on sentiment.

    There is a strong possibility that the US dollar could strengthen against the pound, pushing this pair lower. If the price falls below the 1.32 level, it may head toward the 200-week EMA, which is currently around 1.30. I have little interest in buying the pound at the moment, even though it may still perform better than several of its peers against the US dollar.

    USD/CHF

    The US dollar is trading choppily against the Swiss franc, hovering around the 0.79 level. If the price manages to break above this week’s high, it could pave the way for a move toward the 0.81 level.

    If the price breaks below this week’s low, the market could decline toward the 0.77 level. Overall, this is likely to remain a choppy and noisy environment.

    With US interest rates rising, the market tends to favor safe-haven flows, while the Swiss National Bank may step in if the franc strengthens excessively. Given these opposing forces, I expect the pair to eventually move higher.

    NASDAQ 100

    The Nasdaq 100 attempted to move higher during the week but encountered resistance around the 25,000 level. After reversing and showing weakness, the market now appears to be testing the 23,800 level.

    Given this situation, the market appears vulnerable to a deeper downside move. The 50-week EMA sits near the 23,800 level, and a break below that could trigger significant selling pressure. While short-term bounces may occur, a sustained move above 25,000 would be needed for buyers to regain control and target higher levels. For now, elevated interest rates continue to weigh on overall risk sentiment.

    DAX

    In Germany, the DAX initially attempted to rally but has since broken down decisively, appearing to lose key support. Rising German interest rates, combined with a broader risk-off environment and ongoing energy challenges across Europe, continue to heavily influence the market’s direction.

    With liquefied natural gas and oil continuing to pose challenges, this market will likely need time to establish support at lower levels. Before that happens, however, it could potentially decline toward the 20,000 mark.

    Sources: Lewis

  • Bitcoin holds above $70,000 but is set for its first weekly decline since the Iran conflict began.

    Bitcoin held above $70,000 on Friday after dipping below $69,000 the previous day, ending a nearly two-week winning streak as risk assets faced pressure.

    Initially unaffected by the Middle East conflict, cryptocurrencies have recently felt the impact of rising oil prices, while cautious central bank commentary suggesting sustained higher interest rates also weighed on sentiment. By 18:17 ET (22:17 GMT), Bitcoin was up 1% at $70,843.9, having hit a low of $68,814.4 on Thursday.

    Analyst Iliya Kalchev of Nexo Dispatch noted that $70,000 is a key level—holding it could stabilize prices and relieve pressure on leveraged positions, while a break could open the path to the next support zone. On-chain data show long-term holders are selling less, indicating a slowdown in distribution. However, miners remain a vulnerable segment, and overall on-chain activity is down, with trading shifting toward derivatives and ETFs, making price discovery more influenced by macro factors than direct demand.

    Equities and other risk assets have been hit hard this week amid escalating Middle East tensions, dragging crypto down with them. Reports indicate the U.S. is exploring troop options in Iran. CBS News reported that Pentagon officials have detailed plans for potential ground deployments, while Reuters noted additional Marines and sailors are being sent to the region.

    Oil prices surged, with Brent crude reaching $119 on Thursday, after Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field and Tehran retaliated against regional energy infrastructure. Although the U.S. and allies have sought to ease supply concerns near the Strait of Hormuz, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated sanctioned Iranian oil already at sea may be allowed into markets, and further Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases remain possible. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also pledged to refrain from further strikes on Iranian energy sites.

    Federal Reserve signals also influenced crypto sentiment. While the Fed kept rates unchanged, higher energy costs fueling inflation expectations pushed back the timing of potential rate cuts. The European Central Bank and Bank of England similarly maintained rates, taking a wait-and-see approach amid the Middle East crisis.

    Most altcoins mirrored Bitcoin’s recovery. Ethereum gained 1% to $2,160, XRP fell slightly to $1.4483, Solana rose 1.4%, Cardano edged up 0.2%, and Dogecoin climbed 1.5%.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Bitcoin recovers slightly after falling below $70,000 as traders resist expectations of interest rate cuts.

    On Thursday, Bitcoin briefly fell below $70,000 as investors weighed central bank decisions and rising tensions in the Middle East. The cryptocurrency declined 1.2% to $70,437.1 by 17:48 ET (21:48 GMT), bouncing back from a session low of $68,814.4, after trading above $74,000 in the previous session and touching near $76,000 earlier in the week.

    Pressure on digital assets rose after major central banks—including the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England—kept interest rates steady but signaled ongoing inflation risks, especially from energy markets. Policymakers cautioned that surging oil prices could complicate disinflation and delay potential rate cuts. Traders subsequently priced out expectations of rate cuts this year, with the CME FedWatch tool showing none. The Fed also revised its 2026 inflation forecast up to 2.7% from 2.4%, partly reflecting higher oil prices.

    The Bank of Japan maintained rates as well, warning that developments in the Middle East and crude oil markets could influence its inflation trajectory. Oil prices initially spiked toward $120 a barrel following Iran’s attacks on regional energy facilities but later reversed after Israel claimed Iran had lost the capability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles.

    Cryptocurrencies, increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic trends, faced pressure as higher oil prices boosted bond yields and strengthened the dollar. U.S. stocks also closed lower amid Middle East conflict concerns and soft housing data.

    Altcoins mirrored Bitcoin’s decline: Ethereum fell 2.6% to $2,147.41, XRP dropped 1% to $1.4524, Solana slid 1.6%, Cardano lost 2.6%, and Dogecoin dipped 2%.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Bitcoin slips below $71,000 as traders scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts.

    Bitcoin dropped sharply on Thursday, falling below $71,000 as investors reacted to a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and a spike in oil prices fueled by rising Middle East tensions.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency slid 4.2% to $70,817.4 by early trading, retreating from levels above $74,000 in the previous session and nearly $76,000 earlier in the week.

    Fed outlook weighs on markets

    Pressure on digital assets intensified after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but flagged ongoing inflation risks, particularly from rising energy costs. Officials cautioned that higher oil prices could slow the disinflation process and push back expected rate cuts. The Fed also raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% from 2.4%, signaling concern over persistent price pressures.

    Oil prices surged past $110 per barrel on Wednesday and continued climbing in Asian trading Thursday after Iran launched attacks on energy facilities across the Middle East following a strike on its South Pars gas field.

    As cryptocurrencies increasingly move in tandem with macroeconomic trends, they faced headwinds from rising bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar driven by higher oil prices. U.S. stock markets closed lower बुधवार, while Asian equities also declined early Thursday.

    Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan held rates steady and warned that developments in the Middle East conflict and oil prices could influence Japan’s inflation outlook.

    Kraken delays IPO plans

    Crypto exchange Kraken has reportedly paused its plans for a multibillion-dollar IPO due to unfavorable market conditions, according to CoinDesk. The firm, which had confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the U.S. SEC in November, is now expected to delay its listing until market sentiment improves.

    The decision reflects a broader downturn in crypto markets since late 2025, with weaker prices and trading volumes dampening valuations and investor demand. Kraken was last valued at $20 billion after raising $800 million.

    Altcoins extend losses

    Most altcoins also declined on Thursday. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 6% to $2,193.41, while XRP dropped 3.5% to $1.47. Solana and Polygon each lost about 4%, and Cardano slid 6%. Among meme coins, Dogecoin fell 5%.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Gold stays firm near critical support levels as inflation and oil risks keep the Fed under strain.

    Mainstream media reports that the dollar is strengthening, attributing the move to rising oil prices. But is that explanation accurate?

    The dollar’s strength is more likely tied to the sharp downturn in an overvalued U.S. stock market.

    As equities slide, investors appear to be retreating into cash, driving demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, both major political parties continue to present the stock market as a key symbol of economic health, while commentators push for aggressive rate cuts—even as inflation risks remain elevated.

    Such cuts could erode returns for retirees and savers, but may help prop up equities and prevent a collapse reminiscent of 1929, while also enabling the government to take on significantly more debt.

    A broader perspective challenges the idea of a strong dollar rally. Viewed against gold over the long term, the dollar shows little real strength, with fiat currency appearing to be on a prolonged path of decline.

    The persistent rise in the cost of essentials—such as food, housing, and transportation—is often linked to government reliance on fiat money. In this view, the long-term impact of fiat systems has been deeply damaging to citizens, rivaling the economic harm typically associated with major conflicts.

    The argument here is that investors should consistently build positions in gold, taking advantage of key price zones such as $5,000, $4,850, and $4,650 to accumulate not only gold, but also silver and mining stocks.

    From a technical perspective, momentum indicators like the Stochastics (14,7,7) are نزدیک oversold levels, and a dip toward $4,850 could help form a large bullish triangle pattern, with a potential upside target around $6,600.

    In the near term, attention is on upcoming data and policy decisions—specifically the PPI report and the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement. With oil prices having surged significantly, the Fed may face challenges in addressing inflation while balancing pressure to support the economy. Policymakers could frame inflation as temporary, despite it remaining above their long-term target.

    For long-term gold investors, however, the focus is less on short-term central bank actions and more on identifying attractive entry points to steadily accumulate precious metals and quality mining equities.

    What about oil? The U.S. is aggressively trying—while piling on more debt—to contain the attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, and a positive headline could emerge within the next couple of weeks.

    That could act as a catalyst for the stock market rally I’m expecting (including gold equities). Still, oil appears stuck in a wide $80–$120 range for now, though the odds favor an upside breakout, potentially driving prices toward $160.

    The key point is this: oil production and transportation infrastructure across much of the Middle East has likely suffered meaningful damage, and restoring full capacity could take years.

    As for Venezuela stepping in to offset the shortfall, that seems unlikely in the near term. Despite political maneuvering, international oil companies will likely expand production there very cautiously.

    In short, $80 may now represent a structural floor for oil prices. If so, inflation floors—across CPI, PPI, and PCE—could settle in the 4%–5% range, or even higher.

    What about miners? The CDNX hasn’t made any meaningful progress since I flagged a profit-taking opportunity five months ago at the key psychological resistance level around 1000.

    From a technical standpoint, this consolidation phase could persist into the fall, potentially forming a highly bullish, symmetrical structure on the chart.

    In the meantime, gold stock investors should use this period to properly organize their allocations—positioning themselves to patiently ride out the lull and ultimately capitalize on the powerful breakout and multi-year advance that is likely to follow.

    The chart for SIL (the silver miners ETF) remains bullish. Based on classical charting principles from Edwards & Magee, rectangle patterns tend to break to the upside about 67% of the time, implying a potential target near $130.

    Rather than trying to pinpoint an exact bottom, investors are better off identifying strong accumulation zones—like the current one—and buying incrementally. A gold price of $5,000 aligns with roughly $92 for SIL, while additional positions in GDX, SIL, and related mining stocks could be added if gold dips toward $4,850.

    With governments globally becoming increasingly debt-driven, the macro backdrop remains chaotic. In that environment, gold, silver, and mining investors can stay on the sidelines of the noise and focus instead on taking advantage of attractive entry zones.

    Sources: Stewart Thomson

  • Bitcoin pauses its momentum as attention shifts to the Iran conflict and upcoming central bank decisions.

    Bitcoin edged slightly lower on Tuesday, easing after briefly nearing the $76,000 mark, as investors kept a close eye on oil price volatility linked to the Middle East conflict and awaited major central bank decisions.

    The leading cryptocurrency was last down 0.2% at $74,605.5 as of 18:10 ET (22:10 GMT). Earlier in the session, Bitcoin had climbed to a high of $75,991.2.

    Bitcoin buoyed by short covering, ETF inflows

    Bitcoin drew support from short covering, as traders closed out bearish positions built during the early-February sell-off. However, the upward momentum faded במהלך the session, leaving prices hovering near unchanged levels.

    Further support came from renewed institutional interest and steady inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

    “Despite the rebound, Bitcoin’s path through March has been uneven. Each rally has met selling pressure near established resistance levels, as traders take profits following sharp gains,” said IG market analyst Axel Rudolph.

    “This has resulted in a pattern of advances followed by consolidation, as the market searches for clearer direction,” he added.

    Iran conflict and oil surge concerns linger; Fed decision in focus

    Geopolitical tensions remained front and center as the conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran entered its third week, keeping global risk sentiment fragile.

    Oil prices slipped overnight but rebounded on Tuesday, staying above $100 per barrel amid ongoing concerns about potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Persistently high energy prices have fueled worries about prolonged inflation, shaping investor positioning across markets, including cryptocurrencies.

    “While escalating global tensions initially sparked risk-off selling, cryptocurrencies later began to behave more like defensive assets as the situation evolved,” said IG analyst Axel Rudolph.

    Attention is now turning to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. While the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, investors are closely watching for signals on inflation.

    In addition, several other major central banks are set to hold policy meetings later this week.

    Mastercard to buy BVNK in $1.8 billion stablecoin expansion

    Mastercard announced on Tuesday that it has reached an agreement to acquire BVNK, a stablecoin payments infrastructure provider, in a deal worth up to $1.8 billion. The acquisition aims to strengthen Mastercard’s footprint in blockchain-driven transactions.

    The move reflects increasing regulatory clarity and rising adoption of stablecoins, which are enabling card networks to expand beyond traditional payment systems into faster and more cost-efficient digital transfers. Both Mastercard and Visa are racing to establish an early advantage in this rapidly evolving sector.

    The deal includes up to $300 million in contingent payments and is expected to be finalized before the end of 2026.

    BVNK offers infrastructure that bridges fiat currencies and stablecoins, facilitating payments across major blockchain networks in over 130 countries. The acquisition is expected to enhance capabilities in areas such as cross-border remittances, business transactions, and digital token payouts.

    Crypto prices today: altcoins remain subdued

    The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, fell 0.9% to $2,335.81. Third-ranked XRP declined 1.2% to $1.5324. Solana dropped 1.1%, while Cardano was largely unchanged. Among meme coins, Dogecoin slid more than 1.8%.

    Sources: Anuron

  • Bitcoin surges past $74K, reaching a six-week high as short liquidations fuel rally.

    Bitcoin climbed above $74,000 on Monday, reaching its highest level in roughly six weeks as a wave of short liquidations supported the rally, although investors stayed cautious amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

    The largest cryptocurrency was last up 3.4% at $73,892.4 by 02:21 ET (06:21 GMT), after touching an intraday high of $74,336.9 earlier in the session.

    Bitcoin gained about 6% last week even as global equity markets declined, with surging oil prices fueling concerns about inflation.

    Crypto rallies on short liquidations

    Cryptocurrency markets posted broad gains as traders who had bet on further price declines rushed to close their short positions.

    Data from CoinGlass showed about $344 million in crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours, with short positions making up roughly 83% of the total.

    Liquidations occur when leveraged traders are forced to close their positions after prices move against them, often intensifying price swings.

    Despite the rebound, sentiment remained cautious as the conflict in the Middle East entered its third week, raising worries about global energy supply and inflation pressures.

    Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has urged allies to help safeguard the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments, as hostilities in the region continue.

    Oil stays above $100 amid Iran war concerns

    Reports indicated that despite repeated statements from U.S. officials claiming Iran’s military capabilities had been destroyed, drone attacks continued in Gulf states on Monday.

    Oil prices remained supported above $100 per barrel amid fears of potential supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global crude exports.

    U.S. stock futures moved slightly higher in Asian trading on Monday as investors looked ahead to the upcoming policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, where policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged while evaluating inflation risks.

    Analysts noted that geopolitical uncertainty and broader macroeconomic risks could keep cryptocurrency markets volatile in the near term, even as short covering supports prices.

    Crypto price today: altcoins surge, Ether jumps 8%

    Most altcoins advanced on Monday as the broader crypto market recovered.

    The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, rose 8% to $2,265.88.

    The third-largest token, XRP, fell 5% to $1.48.

    Solana and Polygon both climbed about 6%, while Cardano surged nearly 10%.

    Among meme coins, Dogecoin gained around 7%.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • BCA: Stablecoins Emerging as a Macro-Relevant Financial Layer

    Stablecoins are transitioning from a niche cryptocurrency instrument into a macro-relevant component of the financial system, connecting global payment activity with U.S. dollar liquidity and short-term Treasury markets, according to a report from BCA Research.

    The firm noted that the rapid growth of stablecoins could gradually alter parts of the global financial landscape as their use expands beyond crypto trading into areas such as payments, remittances, and tokenized assets.

    Stablecoins are blockchain-based digital tokens designed to maintain a stable value by referencing another asset, most commonly the U.S. dollar. Their circulation has increased significantly in recent years, with total supply now exceeding $300 billion, compared with about $30 billion in 2020.

    Because issuers must hold reserves to back the tokens they create, those funds are typically placed in highly liquid and low-risk assets such as U.S. Treasury bills, reverse repurchase agreements, and bank deposits. As the market expands, stablecoin issuers are becoming increasingly important marginal buyers of short-term U.S. government debt.

    According to BCA, this development establishes a new channel linking worldwide payment demand to the U.S. Treasury market. Rising stablecoin issuance could boost demand for Treasury bills and potentially influence short-term interest rates, especially if new inflows represent additional capital rather than funds shifting from existing investors.

    Adoption is also spreading geographically, particularly in emerging economies dealing with inflation, currency depreciation, or capital controls. In such environments, digital dollar tokens can function as a store of value and provide access to dollar-based financial services outside traditional banking channels.

    This dynamic may further strengthen global demand for the U.S. dollar while creating policy challenges for governments where the growing use of digital dollars accelerates currency substitution and capital outflows.

    Stablecoins may also pose competitive pressure for banks. The report highlighted that expanding digital dollar balances could divert funds from traditional bank deposits—especially non-interest-bearing transaction accounts—forcing banks to compete more aggressively to attract funding.

    Despite their rapid growth, BCA emphasized that stablecoins still account for a relatively small portion of global payments and financial assets. However, continued expansion, clearer regulation, and broader institutional adoption could significantly increase their economic influence over the next decade.

    Sources: Tanay Dhumal

  • Bitcoin set for weekly gains as optimism over U.S. crypto regulation offsets Iran war fears.

    Bitcoin climbed on Friday, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains as expectations for more supportive cryptocurrency regulation in the United States helped counter lingering worries surrounding the Iran conflict.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency rose 1.4% to $71,113.1 by 18:00 ET (22:00 GMT).

    Bitcoin on track for weekly gains amid regulatory optimism

    Bitcoin was heading for a weekly advance of nearly 6%, outperforming broader risk-sensitive assets despite the uncertainty stemming from the ongoing Iran war.

    The rally in the leading digital asset was largely fueled by an announcement on Wednesday that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will cooperate to develop a clearer and more comprehensive regulatory framework for U.S. crypto markets.

    Through the agreement, the two agencies signaled plans to jointly craft a federal policy that would introduce a “fit-for-purpose regulatory framework for crypto assets and other emerging technologies.”

    The initiative, known as the Joint Harmonization Initiative, seeks to establish structured data-sharing practices, simplify reporting requirements, and reduce overlapping enforcement actions between the two regulators.

    Although the arrangement is non-binding, the announcement boosted investor confidence that U.S. authorities may move toward clearer and more coordinated regulation for the cryptocurrency sector.

    The initiative also aligns with promises by Donald Trump to provide greater regulatory clarity for the crypto industry, with the administration appointing leaders at both agencies viewed as supportive of digital assets.

    Crypto markets remain resilient despite geopolitical tensions

    Bitcoin has climbed about 6.1% since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran in late February. Meanwhile, the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, has gained roughly 6.2% during the same period.

    According to David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, both Bitcoin and Ether have demonstrated notable resilience despite growing negative sentiment toward risk assets.

    He noted that the two cryptocurrencies have held up well even as global equities—particularly technology stocks—faced significant selling pressure. At the same time, Bitcoin has been rising alongside the U.S. dollar and crude oil, while traditional safe-haven metals such as gold and silver have struggled.

    Morrison added that the rebound may partly reflect technical factors. After reaching an all-time high above $126,000 six months ago, Bitcoin lost more than half of its value, dropping to around $60,000 in early February. That sharp correction left the market technically positioned for renewed buying interest. Whether the recovery proves temporary or develops into a more sustained trend remains uncertain.

    Despite the recent gains, broader investor appetite for risk remains subdued, as equity markets have experienced sharp declines amid concerns about the economic consequences of the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran.

    One major concern is the war’s potential inflationary impact. Prolonged disruptions to oil supply could push crude prices higher and contribute to global inflation. Such pressures may force major central banks to adopt a more hawkish policy stance, which could weigh on cryptocurrencies and other speculative assets.

    Iliya Kalchev, analyst at Nexo Dispatch, said Bitcoin’s rebound from the mid-$60,000 range to above $72,000 suggests the market has stabilized after a brief period of deleveraging. Open interest has recovered to 687,200 BTC—its highest level since late February—while funding rates and trading volume indicators have turned positive. Meanwhile, implied volatility has dropped to a two-week low of 55%.

    Inflation data meets expectations

    U.S. inflation figures released earlier showed price pressures broadly in line with forecasts but still above the level preferred by the Federal Reserve.

    The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.4% month-on-month in January, matching expectations. On an annual basis, core PCE increased 3.1%, also in line with estimates and still well above the central bank’s 2% target.

    The Fed closely monitors the core PCE index because it reflects a broader range of consumer spending than the Consumer Price Index and captures shifts in purchasing behavior.

    Earlier data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that February’s headline CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, while core CPI increased 2.5%—the lowest reading since March 2021, though still above the Fed’s target.

    The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its next interest-rate decision on Wednesday, with markets currently pricing in an almost certain probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates unchanged.

    Altcoins mostly higher, $TRUMP token surges

    The broader cryptocurrency market also moved higher on Friday in line with Bitcoin.

    Ether gained 1.3% to $2,089.11, while XRP rose 1.2% to $1.3950. BNB, Cardano, and Solana increased 0.6%, 0.8%, and 2.2%, respectively.

    Among memecoins, Dogecoin added 1.4%, while the $TRUMP token surged 30%. The rally followed news of an exclusive cryptocurrency and business conference at Mar-a-Lago, where President Donald Trump is expected to deliver a keynote speech, prompting traders to accumulate the token ahead of an April 25 gala luncheon.

    Despite the recent rebound, most altcoins—like Bitcoin—remain significantly below their highs from recent months, with overall sentiment toward the crypto sector still fragile.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Bitcoin edges higher as cryptocurrencies remain resilient despite Middle East tensions.

    Bitcoin edged slightly higher on Thursday, remaining largely insulated from the geopolitical developments unfolding in the Middle East.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last trading about 2% higher at $71,653.5 as of 20:23 ET (00:23 GMT).

    Prices appear to be consolidating around the $70,000 level as investors assess the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

    Oil prices surged back toward $100 per barrel, raising renewed concerns about inflation.

    Crude oil prices climbed back toward $100 per barrel, rekindling concerns about inflation. Oil markets were the main force shaping investor sentiment. Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel after retreating from Monday’s spike near $120, its highest level in almost two years.

    The latest escalation in the Middle East involved attacks on two fuel tankers in Iraqi territorial waters and strikes on commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil chokepoint.

    About one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments pass through the strait, but tanker traffic has slowed sharply due to security concerns. Iran’s new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said on Thursday that the waterway will remain closed.

    The surge in energy prices has renewed fears of global inflation just as central banks had begun considering policy easing. Analysts warn that oil remaining above $100 per barrel could complicate the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plans to cut interest rates and weigh on risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies.

    In recent months, Bitcoin has often moved alongside broader risk assets, and traders worry that another inflation shock could reduce market liquidity.

    Investors are also watching key U.S. economic data for signals about the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.

    Weekly jobless claims declined slightly last week, indicating that layoffs remain relatively limited. Initial claims for unemployment benefits totaled 213,000 in the week ending March 7, below expectations and slightly down from 214,000 the previous week, according to the Labor Department.

    Continuing claims, which measure the number of people still receiving unemployment benefits, fell to 1.85 million in the week ending February 28 from 1.87 million the week before. This data typically lags initial claims by one week.

    The jobless claims report follows weaker-than-expected U.S. employment figures released by the Labor Department last week. Meanwhile, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation—is scheduled for release on Friday.

    Tether invests in Ark Labs to support programmable payments on Bitcoin.

    Tether said Thursday it has invested in Ark Labs as part of a funding round aimed at advancing programmable payments on the Bitcoin network.

    The investment was included in a $5.2 million round for the startup, which is developing infrastructure to enable faster transactions and support application development on Bitcoin. With this latest funding, Ark Labs said its total capital raised has reached about $7.7 million.

    Ark Labs is building Arkade, a system designed to operate as an execution layer on Bitcoin. The platform aims to help developers create services such as payment networks, lending applications, and digital asset platforms on top of the blockchain.

    The project focuses on improving Bitcoin’s practicality for financial services that require quicker settlement and greater automation.

    Alongside Tether, the round also attracted backing from Ego Death Capital, Epoch VC, Lion26, Sats Ventures, and Contribution Capital. Anchorage Digital, former PayPal vice president of finance Ralph Ho, and several other investors from the digital asset and fintech sectors also participated.

    The project aims to enhance Bitcoin’s usability for financial services that require faster settlement and greater automation.

    Alongside Tether, the funding round also drew investments from Ego Death Capital, Epoch VC, Lion26, Sats Ventures, and Contribution Capital.

    Anchorage Digital, former PayPal vice president of finance Ralph Ho, and several other investors from the digital asset and fintech sectors also took part in the round.

    Crypto prices today: altcoins edge higher.

    Most altcoins followed Bitcoin higher on Thursday.

    The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, rose 3.9% to $2,135.71.

    The third-largest crypto, XRP, gained 1.2% to $1.4083.

    Solana climbed 4%, while Cardano advanced 2.9%.

    Among meme coins, Dogecoin jumped 4.5%.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Gold: Will the next move be driven by safe-haven demand or by the strengthening U.S. dollar?

    • Gold declines as a surge in oil prices pushes the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields above important levels.
    • However, safe-haven demand tied to tensions in the Middle East is helping limit further losses despite the rise in yields.
    • For now, the key levels to watch are $5,000 as support and the $5,150–$5,200 resistance zone.

    Gold has begun the week on a weaker note after recording its first weekly loss since the sharp drop at the end of January. Although prices attempted to rebound in the latter half of last week, the recovery was not enough to offset the earlier declines.

    The move largely reflects the sharp surge in oil prices, which has pushed both the U.S. dollar and bond yields higher. With oil climbing above $100 today, gold slipped again at the start of the session. As a result, gold is currently caught in a difficult position: escalating tensions in the Middle East are generating some safe-haven demand, but the strengthening U.S. dollar and rising bond yields are acting as significant headwinds.

    Stronger U.S. Dollar and Rising Yields Offset Safe-Haven Demand

    Rising yields typically weigh on assets like gold and silver, which do not generate interest and involve storage costs. In recent months, however, gold has shown notable resilience even as bond yields remained elevated. That strength faded somewhat last week, and at the start of today’s session gold slipped again—an unsurprising move given the firmer U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields.

    As the session progressed, gold did recover from its earlier lows, though it was still trading in negative territory at the time of writing.

    The recent spike in oil prices has had a mixed impact on gold. On one side, the rise in bond yields and the stronger U.S. dollar has put downward pressure on the metal. On the other, safe-haven demand has continued to limit the downside. If oil prices were to ease somewhat—perhaps through a coordinated release of strategic reserves—gold could find room to move higher again.

    Overall, gold’s price action remains volatile and largely in a consolidation phase, offering both bullish and bearish traders opportunities amid the heightened market swings.

    Key Gold Price Levels to Watch

    For now, the market appears to be trading strictly between key levels, and this pattern is likely to continue until we see a decisive breakout above resistance or a breakdown below the major support levels protecting the downside.

    So, which levels are the most important to watch?

    Support is currently located between $5,000 and $5,050. This zone has been tested several times from above in recent days and has held up well so far.

    As long as gold does not break decisively below the $5,000 level, the overall bias could still favor the upside. Despite the recent rebound in the U.S. dollar and bond yields, gold’s broader trend has remained bullish, making it difficult to dismiss that outlook—especially given the ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

    On the resistance side, the key range lies between $5,150 and $5,200. This area has been tested multiple times since the breakout seen last Tuesday, which initially appeared to signal a potential turning point for gold.

    However, there has been little meaningful follow-through to the downside. The fact that gold has managed to hold steady suggests it may be forming a base around $5,000 before possibly attempting another move higher.

    For now, the focus remains on these levels. Whether gold breaks above resistance or falls below support will likely determine its next short-term direction.

    Sources: Fawad Razaqzada

  • Bitcoin rebounds above $70K as Trump comments boost risk appetite.

    Bitcoin rebounded above the $70,000 mark during Asian trading on Tuesday as risk appetite improved after Donald Trump said the ongoing U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran could soon come to an end.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last up 3.4% at $70,201.3 as of 01:02 ET (05:02 GMT), after earlier rising to an intraday high of $70,558.4.

    Bitcoin had briefly dropped to around $65,000 over the previous 24 hours as investors moved away from riskier assets amid a sharp surge in oil prices, which heightened concerns over global inflation.

    Risk appetite improves after Donald Trump signals Iran war may soon end.

    Market sentiment improved after Donald Trump said the war involving Iran could end soon, helping ease tensions in financial markets that had been unsettled by fears of a prolonged regional conflict.

    Trump said the situation could ultimately be resolved, although he cautioned that it was unlikely to conclude this week. He also warned that the United States would respond “20 times harder” if Iran attempted to block the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil shipments.

    Oil prices fell to around $90 per barrel on Tuesday after surging close to $120 a barrel on Monday. The pullback helped ease worries about a sharp spike in global inflation that had weighed on markets earlier in the week.

    Asian stock markets rebounded on Tuesday, with major regional benchmarks recovering part of the heavy losses recorded in the previous session after Monday’s sharp selloff. The improved mood followed gains on Wall Street overnight.

    Cryptocurrency markets also moved higher in line with the broader recovery in risk appetite. Still, traders remain cautious as developments in the Middle East continue to influence commodity prices and global market sentiment.

    Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming U.S. inflation data, including the January consumer price index due on Wednesday and the February personal consumption expenditures price index— the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve — scheduled for release on Thursday.

    Crypto prices today: Altcoins gain as markets trade within a narrow range.

    Most altcoins posted gains on Tuesday, although trading remained within relatively tight ranges.

    Ethereum, the world’s No. 2 cryptocurrency, rose 1.8% to $2,046.92. XRP, ranked third by market capitalization, advanced 2.3% to $1.38.

    Solana climbed 3%, while Cardano gained 1.2%. Polygon was largely unchanged. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin edged up 0.6%.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Bitcoin edges higher to $72K, leading a broader crypto rally as risk appetite strengthens.

    Bitcoin edged higher on Thursday, stabilizing after a wave of regulatory optimism and improving market sentiment fueled recent gains in the world’s largest cryptocurrency, though concerns linked to the Iran conflict continued to weigh on markets. The digital asset rose 1.5% to $72,620 by 09:37 ET (14:37 GMT), after reaching a one-month peak of $73,243 on Wednesday.

    However, some gains were pared back as U.S. stock index futures turned negative Thursday morning, with ongoing tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran keeping investors cautious. Rising oil prices also intensified worries about the conflict’s potential inflationary effects.

    Bitcoin had surged on Wednesday, extending earlier weekly gains as a strong performance on Wall Street boosted risk appetite. Bargain buying also contributed to the rally following the cryptocurrency’s sharp losses in February. The market was further supported after U.S. President Donald Trump urged lawmakers to quickly pass a long-delayed crypto market framework bill and criticized major U.S. banking groups for opposing yield payments on stablecoins.

    His remarks fueled expectations that the industry could receive more favorable regulation in the U.S., although progress on the CLARITY Act—designed to establish a clear market structure for crypto—remains limited. Earlier optimism was also driven by reports suggesting Iran was seeking talks with Washington, raising hopes for de-escalation. However, Iran denied those reports and launched missile strikes on Israel early Thursday, dampening risk sentiment.

    Meanwhile, billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio renewed his criticism of Bitcoin, arguing it should not be compared with gold because it lacks central bank backing, offers limited privacy, and could be vulnerable to advances in quantum computing. Speaking on a podcast, the Bridgewater Associates founder said Bitcoin remains small relative to gold as a monetary asset and questioned its reliability as a safe haven.

    Despite his skepticism, Dalio noted in 2025 that he maintains a 1% allocation to Bitcoin in his portfolio and previously suggested investors consider holding around 15% in either Bitcoin or gold amid concerns about the U.S. debt situation.

    In corporate news, Intercontinental Exchange—the owner of the New York Stock Exchange—acquired a minority stake in crypto exchange OKX in a deal valuing the platform at roughly $25 billion. As part of the agreement, ICE will license OKX’s spot crypto pricing data and intends to launch U.S.-regulated futures contracts tied to those prices.

    Subject to regulatory approval, ICE’s U.S. futures products and tokenized NYSE-listed equities could also become available on OKX’s platform. Financial terms of the investment were not disclosed, though ICE will receive a seat on OKX’s board.

    Across the broader crypto market, prices moved slightly higher on Thursday, following Bitcoin’s gains as the sector recovered part of last month’s losses. Ether rose about 2% to $2,123.34, while XRP gained more than 1% to $1.43. Solana, Cardano, and BNB also recorded modest increases. Among memecoins, Dogecoin traded flat, while the $TRUMP token declined around 2%.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Bitcoin Holds Near $68K as Trump Signals Support; Iran Concerns Linger

    Bitcoin was little changed on Wednesday, drawing modest support after Donald Trump called for stronger regulatory backing of the crypto sector.

    Still, lingering concerns over the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict—and its potential inflationary fallout—kept broader digital asset markets under pressure, capping what had been a brief rebound earlier in the week.

    Bitcoin was flat at $68,147.8 as of 01:30 ET (06:30 GMT). The token had briefly climbed back toward $69,000 earlier this week before surrendering part of those gains.

    Trump targets banks over crypto legislation

    In a Tuesday evening social media post, Trump accused major U.S. banks of attempting to weaken the GENIUS Act—legislation regulating stablecoins—by delaying progress on the CLARITY Act in the Senate. The latter bill aims to establish a broader regulatory framework for crypto markets.

    Trump argued that record bank profits should not come at the expense of the administration’s crypto agenda, warning that failure to pass the CLARITY Act could drive innovation overseas. He urged banks to support, rather than obstruct, efforts to formalize rules for the industry.

    According to reports, Trump met privately with Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, shortly before issuing his remarks. Armstrong has opposed a full ban on yield payments for stablecoins.

    The GENIUS Act, passed in June 2025, prohibits issuers such as Tether from directly paying yields to holders. However, third-party platforms like exchanges may still offer such returns—an arrangement banking groups argue creates a regulatory loophole.

    The CLARITY Act, approved by the House in July but still awaiting Senate passage, has faced delays largely due to disagreements over whether stablecoin yield payments should be regulated similarly to bank interest payments.

    Altcoins muted amid geopolitical strain

    Broader crypto markets traded within a narrow range on Wednesday. While optimism over potential U.S. regulatory clarity provided some support, investor sentiment remained constrained by ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

    With the U.S., Israel, and Iran conflict entering its fifth day, fears of supply disruptions—particularly in global oil markets—have fueled inflation concerns. Persistent price pressures could prompt major central banks to maintain a hawkish stance, dampening appetite for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

    Among major tokens, Ethereum fell 1% to $1,979.99, while XRP slipped 0.2% to $1.3594. Solana and BNB were little changed, while Cardano declined 3%. In the meme coin segment, Dogecoin dropped 2.6%, and TRUMP slid 3.4%.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Bitcoin climbs past $69,000, defying broader risk-off selling after tensions escalate between the U.S. and Iran.

    Bitcoin rebounded on Monday, recovering from losses triggered by U.S. strikes on Iran over the weekend. The cryptocurrency’s advance mirrored a broader recovery in equity markets.

    The world’s largest digital asset was up 5.7% at $69,428.4 as of 16:40 ET (21:40 GMT).

    Bitcoin rebounds after weekend selloff

    Bitcoin had dropped sharply after coordinated U.S. and Israeli military operations in Iran reportedly resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, marking one of the most severe regional escalations in recent years.

    Iran responded with several waves of missile attacks targeting Israeli and U.S. military facilities.

    Following the initial strikes, Bitcoin tumbled to around $63,000 before stabilizing and beginning to recover.

    According to Dessislava Ianeva, analyst at Nexo Dispatch, Bitcoin held relatively steady as markets evaluated the evolving U.S.–Iran situation. While prediction markets remain split on the likelihood of further escalation, the limited price reaction indicates investors currently see the conflict as a contained, short-term risk rather than the beginning of a sustained downturn.

    President Donald Trump stated Monday that the military operation had four key goals: dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities, destroying its navy, preventing the country from acquiring nuclear weapons, and stopping Tehran from supporting and directing terrorist activities.

    “We’re already well ahead of schedule, but whatever time is required, that’s fine. We’ll do whatever it takes,” Trump said, adding that although initial projections suggested four to five weeks, the U.S. has the capacity to extend operations significantly if necessary.

    Strategy adds $204 million in Bitcoin

    Michael Saylor’s company Strategy expanded its Bitcoin holdings last week, purchasing 3,015 BTC valued at approximately $204.1 million, at an average price of about $67,700 per coin.

    Following the acquisition, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings increased to 720,737 BTC, accumulated at a total cost of roughly $54.77 billion — averaging about $75,985 per Bitcoin.

    Strategy remains the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin, having steadily built one of the most substantial corporate crypto treasuries.

    Altcoins track Bitcoin higher

    Most major altcoins also moved higher alongside Bitcoin.

    Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, climbed 6% to $2,045.01. XRP gained 2.9% to $1.3936, while Solana and Cardano rose 5.7% and 2.2%, respectively.

    Among meme coins, Dogecoin advanced 2.5%.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Bitcoin climbs back above $67,000 as traders respond to news of Khamenei’s death.

    Bitcoin (BitfinexUSD) is rebounding from its weekend slide, trading above the $67,000 mark as investors process a dramatic shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

    The bounce comes after intense volatility sparked by coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. President Donald Trump stated that the operation led to the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Although Tehran initially rejected the reports, Iranian state media later confirmed his death, triggering sharp reactions across global financial markets.

    As highlighted in Saturday’s analysis, Bitcoin has a consistent pattern of sharply dropping on unexpected geopolitical shocks before stabilizing. That pattern appears to be unfolding again. After falling to nearly $63,000 yesterday, the cryptocurrency has gradually attracted renewed capital flows as the initial wave of panic selling eases.

    Ethereum and XRP are also participating in the broader recovery. ETH/USD has moved back toward the $2,000 level, while XRP is trading near $1.40, with investors anticipating a key March 1 deadline that could bring greater regulatory clarity in the United States.

    Regime change dynamics and shifting sentiment

    Khamenei’s death was a decisive and largely unforeseen development. The swift return of buyers into Bitcoin reflects a growing belief among traders that the most severe phase of military escalation may have already passed.

    At the same time, optimism is tempered by uncertainty surrounding the power vacuum in Tehran. As Iran’s highest authority for decades, Khamenei’s absence leaves open questions about the country’s leadership transition and broader regional stability.

    President Trump’s remarks encouraging Iranians to “reclaim their country” indicate that Washington may be aiming for structural regime change. For crypto investors, the coming days represent a critical period of observation. If Iran manages a controlled leadership transition without broadening the conflict, Bitcoin’s rebound could remain intact. However, a drawn-out internal or regional confrontation could quickly pressure the $67,000 support level once more.

    Escalation risks and Bitcoin’s “safe haven” debate

    Despite the recovery, the possibility of a wider regional conflict persists. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have reportedly carried out strikes against neighboring states hosting U.S. forces, and casualties have been reported following retaliatory action involving Israel. This ongoing cycle of retaliation continues to unsettle institutional crypto participants.

    The central issue now is whether Bitcoin can genuinely function as a “digital gold” hedge during geopolitical crises — or whether it will keep behaving like a high-beta technology asset that reacts sharply to shifts in global risk sentiment.

    Sources: Simon Mugo

  • Why the Surge in Gold May Still Have Further to Run

    Although gold has paused following January’s sharp advance and the pullback that followed, we don’t think the broader uptrend has ended.

    In this article:

    1. Central banks continue accumulating gold
    2. Geopolitical risks are resurfacing
    3. Potential Fed rate cuts could provide additional support
    4. ETF demand is picking up again
    5. The rise of digital currencies and shifting reserve strategies

    While momentum may cool in the near term, the fundamental forces supporting gold remain solid — and in some areas, are even gaining strength.

    Gold’s Structural Backdrop Holds Firm Despite January’s Pullback

    Central Banks Continue to Accumulate

    Official sector demand remains the cornerstone of the gold market. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, central banks—especially in emerging economies—have stepped up efforts to diversify reserves amid sanctions risks, rising geopolitical fragmentation, and a push to reduce dependence on the United States dollar. Importantly, this buying trend has been consistent and largely insensitive to price swings.

    Poland, the largest reported gold buyer last year, has indicated it will continue adding to its holdings, aiming to raise its total gold reserves to about 700 tonnes from roughly 550 tonnes. Rather than targeting a fixed 30% share of reserves, authorities are focusing on increasing the absolute level of holdings—highlighting that reserve accumulation is a strategic priority rather than a short-term tactical move.

    Meanwhile, China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak to a fifteenth consecutive month in January.

    With geopolitical fragmentation still in place, a significant pullback in central bank demand appears unlikely. This enduring structural support continues to provide a firm foundation for gold prices, even at elevated levels.

    Central Bank Demand Stays Strong

    Geopolitics Returns to Center Stage

    Geopolitical tensions have once again become a key macro driver. From renewed strains in the Middle East to escalating trade frictions and tariff threats, investors are facing a more fragile and unpredictable global landscape. Policy uncertainty—particularly around trade—has added volatility across asset classes. In this environment, demand for safe-haven assets remains well supported, with gold’s role as a hedge against geopolitical and policy shocks back in sharp focus.

    Potential Fed Easing as a Tailwind

    A shift in the US monetary policy outlook could provide additional support for gold. Although the Federal Reserve remains cautious, risks are gradually tilting toward policy easing as economic growth moderates and inflation continues to cool.

    Our US economist expects rate cuts to begin in the second quarter, with policy becoming progressively less restrictive thereafter. Even a modest easing cycle would likely benefit gold by pushing real yields lower and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

    Renewed Interest in ETFs

    ETF positioning remains well below its 2020 peak, suggesting room for additional inflows. Following a period of consolidation, gold ETFs are once again drawing investor interest. While central bank purchases continue to anchor the market, ETF flows have the potential to magnify price movements.

    If expectations for rate cuts strengthen or geopolitical risks intensify, a fresh wave of ETF inflows could drive another leg higher in gold prices. Historically, ETF holdings tend to rise alongside prices and closely track expectations for US monetary policy—reinforcing the case for stronger inflows as the Fed pivots toward a more accommodative stance.

    ETF Flows Track Changes in Fed Policy

    Digital Dollars and the Evolution of Reserves

    Reserve diversification is no longer limited to central banks. The rapid expansion of US dollar–backed stablecoins has introduced a new class of institutional reserve buyers.

    Stablecoin issuers—most notably Tether—have emerged as meaningful purchasers of reserve assets, including US Treasuries and, increasingly, gold.

    Tether alone acquired more than 70 tonnes of gold last year, ranking second only to Poland among disclosed buyers, and now holds roughly 140 tonnes across its reserves and gold-backed token. If gold continues to play a role in stablecoin reserve allocation, the sector’s growth could become an additional structural source of demand—one that behaves more like central bank accumulation than retail investment flows.

    Although still smaller in overall scale, this emerging channel adds another layer of long-term support to the market.

    Momentum May Cool, but the Bullish Case Endures

    The advance in gold prices is unlikely to follow a straight line. At record levels, physical demand tends to become more price-sensitive, making consolidation phases or short-term pullbacks increasingly likely.

    That said, the core drivers behind the rally—central bank diversification, ongoing geopolitical fragmentation, the prospect of policy easing, and renewed ETF inflows—remain firmly in place. For now, the broader macro backdrop continues to favour gold.

    Sources: Ewa Manthey

  • Bitcoin dipped below $68,000 as its rebound faded, heading for a fifth straight monthly loss.

    Bitcoin declined on Friday, halting a recovery from its midweek lows as investor risk appetite stayed weak. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is now on track for a fifth straight month of significant losses.

    The broader crypto market moved largely in line with Bitcoin and is also poised for steep losses in February, as both retail and institutional investors continued to avoid the sector.

    By 00:48 ET (05:48 GMT), Bitcoin was down nearly 1% at $67,788.0.

    Bitcoin on track for fifth straight monthly decline

    Bitcoin was down nearly 14% in February, as the risk-off sentiment in the crypto market showed little sign of easing throughout the month.

    Rising geopolitical tensions worldwide, uncertainty surrounding major global economies, and concerns over further disruptions from U.S. trade tariffs kept investors cautious and away from speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.

    The digital asset dropped as much as 50% from its October record high earlier this month, though it has since staged a modest recovery from those lows.

    Bitcoin has remained in a sustained downtrend since October, with purchases by major corporate holder Strategy doing little to stem the losses.

    Strategy has also reportedly slowed its pace of Bitcoin acquisitions in recent months, amid mounting concerns that continued price declines could force the company to sell part of its holdings to service its debt.

    MARA Holdings jumps as AI deal eclipses weak Q4 results

    Shares of MARA Holdings — previously known as Marathon Digital (NASDAQ: MARA) — surged Thursday evening after the Bitcoin mining company revealed a partnership with Starwood Capital to repurpose several of its mining facilities into artificial intelligence data centers. The stock climbed as much as 17% in after-hours trading.

    The announcement helped eclipse a steep $1.7 billion loss in the fourth quarter, driven by an extended slump in Bitcoin prices that severely pressured the firm’s mining profitability. Revenue also came in below expectations.

    Amid continued weakness in Bitcoin and growing investor enthusiasm around AI, MARA has recently been shifting strategy, aiming to redeploy its computing infrastructure toward AI data center operations rather than focusing solely on cryptocurrency mining.

    Crypto prices today: Altcoin recovery fades, February losses loom

    Crypto markets retreated on Friday, giving back much of this week’s brief rebound, with most tokens on track to post steep declines for February.

    The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, slipped 1.2% to $2,038.21 and was heading for a monthly drop of nearly 17%. The token faced additional pressure after co-founder Vitalik Buterin sold more of his holdings, reinforcing cautious sentiment across the market.

    XRP fell 2.3% and was poised to lose around 15% in February, while BNB held steady on Friday but remained down close to 20% for the month.

    Solana was also nursing losses of roughly 17% in February, whereas Cardano traded largely unchanged. In the meme coin segment, Dogecoin declined 5.4% for the month, while Official Trump tumbled about 20% over the same period.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Bitcoin tumbles to $62,000 — how much further could it fall?

    Bitcoin’s latest decline is unfolding amid mounting macroeconomic headwinds and crypto-specific pressures, fueling fears that the downtrend could deepen, with some analysts eyeing a potential floor near $45,000.

    Trump’s 15% Global Tariff Weighs on BTC

    On Saturday, February 21, US President Donald Trump unveiled a 15% blanket tariff on imports, jolting global financial markets — cryptocurrencies included. The move followed a decision by the US Supreme Court to overturn his earlier sweeping tariff measures. The revised levy, initially proposed at 10% before being lifted to 15%, officially comes into force today, February 24, 2026.

    Activated under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, the new tariff covers the majority of imported goods for an initial 150-day period, with any extension subject to congressional approval. Although intended to narrow trade imbalances, the measure has heightened economic uncertainty, triggering a widespread retreat from risk-sensitive assets.

    Within the crypto market, the development has reinforced a risk-off mood, as investors rotate out of volatile positions into safer havens. Bitcoin holders are increasingly realizing losses, with on-chain figures indicating more than $2.3 billion in realized losses over the past week.

    Crypto analyst IT Tech described the move as one of the most significant capitulation phases in Bitcoin’s history, comparing it to the 2021 market crash, the 2022 Luna/FTX collapse, and the mid-2024 correction. In a post on X, he noted that the scale of losses ranks among the top three to five worst drawdowns ever recorded, adding that only a few moments in Bitcoin’s history have witnessed such intense capitulation.

    The reaction reflects mounting concerns that higher import costs could reignite inflationary pressures, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts and keeping financial conditions tighter for longer.

    Markets sold off swiftly following the announcement, with Bitcoin sliding intraday to below the $63,000 mark.

    Spot Bitcoin ETFs Extend Outflow Streak to Five Weeks

    Adding to the tariff-driven volatility, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded five consecutive weeks of net outflows — the longest stretch of withdrawals since February 2025.

    Data from SoSoValue shows that nearly $3.8 billion has exited these funds over the five-week period, including $316 million in redemptions last week alone.

    BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for the largest share of the withdrawals, losing roughly $2.1 billion during the streak. Fidelity Investments’ Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and several other products also saw notable outflows.

    The sharp reversal from the strong inflows seen in late 2024 highlights a cooling in institutional appetite, as portfolio managers trim crypto exposure amid heightened macro uncertainty and broader market turbulence.

    The persistent ETF withdrawals are intensifying sell-side pressure on Bitcoin, as fund managers are forced to offload underlying BTC holdings to satisfy investor redemptions.

    With total net outflows reaching $4.5 billion so far in 2026, much of the earlier inflow momentum has been erased. Analysts describe the environment as a “risk-off stress test,” where macro headwinds — including tariffs and geopolitical tensions — are discouraging fresh allocations into crypto.

    Sentiment indicators reflect the strain. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to one of its most extreme fear readings on record, reinforcing the ongoing wave of liquidation. Unless ETF flows stabilize or reverse, downside momentum may continue, particularly if institutional distribution remains dominant.

    Bear Pennant Signals $45K Target for Bitcoin

    From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s chart structure remains bearish, with a well-defined bear pennant forming on the daily timeframe.

    A bear pennant is a continuation pattern that follows a steep decline (the flagpole), then consolidates within a tightening symmetrical triangle before typically breaking lower.

    The BTC/USD pair fell below a major support level at $80,117 — its November 2025 low — and slid to $60,000 on February 6, forming the flagpole. A rebound toward $72,000 followed, before price retreated again to around $63,100.

    The pattern confirmed on Monday when Bitcoin broke beneath the pennant’s lower trendline near $67,000. Based on the measured-move technique — projecting the height of the flagpole from the breakout point — the downside target falls in the $45,000–$50,000 range.

    A drop toward $45,000 would imply roughly a 28% decline from current levels, underscoring the risk of further capitulation if macro and flow dynamics fail to improve.

    The bearish outlook is reinforced by strengthening downside momentum, with the RSI sliding from overbought territory near 70 on January 15 to around 29 currently — signaling growing selling pressure and near-oversold conditions.

    Bitcoin continues to trade below key moving averages, keeping the broader technical structure fragile. A decisive break beneath the $60,000 threshold could intensify losses, opening the door toward the $52,450 realized price level — a historically significant support area.

    On the other hand, a sustained move above $72,700 would invalidate the bear pennant setup and could shift momentum back in favor of the bulls, paving the way for a broader recovery.

    Sources: Nancy Luu

  • Bitcoin declines, erasing half of its gains since the October peak at its lowest point of the session.

    Bitcoin fell again on Tuesday, deepening its recent slide and now trading roughly 50% below its October record high, as uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy dampened risk appetite for digital assets.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped 0.9% to $64,169.6 by 17:35 ET (22:35 GMT), after touching an intraday low of $62,650.1.

    Broader crypto markets also remained under pressure, with both institutional and retail investors continuing to reduce exposure. Escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, along with an AI-driven selloff on Wall Street, further weighed on sentiment.

    Bitcoin down 50% from peak

    With Tuesday’s losses, Bitcoin is now trading about half below its early-October all-time high of $126,186.

    The cryptocurrency has been in a sustained downturn since that peak, as fresh U.S. regulatory measures and ongoing purchases by major corporate holder Strategy failed to meaningfully support prices.

    On Monday, Strategy revealed it had acquired an additional 592 Bitcoin. However, the firm is currently facing significant unrealized losses, as Bitcoin trades below its reported average purchase price of $76,020.

    On-chain data from CryptoQuant and Coinglass indicated that large holders—commonly known as “whales”—continued transferring substantial amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges, suggesting further selling pressure.

    Meanwhile, major buyers appear scarce. Data from Glassnode showed institutional investors recorded a fifth straight week of net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs as of Monday.

    Iliya Kalchev of Nexo Dispatch noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw around $203 million in net outflows on Monday alone. At the same time, derivatives markets still show demand for downside hedging, while long-term holders have not signaled broad capitulation—leaving Bitcoin in what he described as a fragile balance between visible pressure and underlying structural conviction.

    He highlighted the $60,000–$72,000 range as the key near-term zone. If ETF flows stabilize and macro volatility subsides, the range could form a base. But if outflows continue, focus may shift toward the realized price area near $55,000 as the next major reference point.

    Tariff uncertainty adds pressure

    Bitcoin’s latest weakness was largely driven by renewed uncertainty over U.S. trade policy after the Supreme Court struck down much of President Donald Trump’s tariff framework.

    In response, Trump announced new universal tariffs of 15% under a different legal authority, though the initial rate implemented at midnight Tuesday was 10%. The president now faces additional legal hurdles in expanding tariffs but has shown little intention of retreating from his trade agenda, even warning that countries seeking to renegotiate trade deals could face higher duties.

    Although cryptocurrencies are not directly tied to trade flows, they are highly sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has triggered broader risk aversion across financial markets, spilling over into digital assets.

    Altcoins follow Bitcoin lower

    Most altcoins tracked Bitcoin’s decline, with the broader market showing little sign of relief from the ongoing downturn.

    Ethereum slipped 0.1% to $1,857.78, hovering near early-February lows. XRP and BNB fell 0.2% and 1.9%, respectively, while Cardano declined 1.4%. Solana bucked the trend, rising 0.9%.

    Among meme tokens, Dogecoin dropped 1.1%, while TRUMP gained 1.3%.

  • Money Works in Curious Ways: Why the US Dollar Still Reigns Supreme

    The purpose here isn’t to make a forecast, but to stay open-minded about money as both a social construct and a carrier of utility value.

    The prevailing view argues that the US dollar is destined to collapse, steadily declining toward worthlessness. According to this narrative, the United States will keep creating new dollars to sustain the illusion of stability, until excessive money printing ignites hyperinflation and erodes what little value the dollar has left.

    This outlook draws heavily from historical episodes such as the Weimar Republic, where large-scale money creation ultimately destroyed the currency. It’s possible the dollar could follow a similar path.

    But money behaves in complex ways. Because it is fundamentally a social agreement, its potential outcomes are broader than we often assume. So instead of assuming collapse, let’s imagine a case for continued dollar dominance.

    Consider two hypothetical types of money. The first is a globally recognized currency backed by a basket of industrial commodities—metals like silver and copper, fuels like oil, and other tangible resources. Its value stems not from scarcity alone but from the practical utility of the assets supporting it. Since it is tied to a physical reserve, new units can only be issued if that reserve grows. It cannot be created through lending by banks.

    The second type of currency expires after a set period and must be spent before it loses all value. This resembles “scrip” money. Together, these two examples illustrate money’s dual role: a store of value and a medium of exchange.

    Naturally, we would save the first form for long-term security—its value rests on enduring real-world utility. The expiring currency, by contrast, would be spent quickly on goods and services.

    Now consider another scenario: traveling abroad and collecting small amounts of foreign cash. Each note is valuable within its home country but useless elsewhere until exchanged. The same logic applies to precious metals. If you try to pay for a bowl of noodles with silver, the vendor must convert it into local currency, incurring transaction costs. And if taxes are owed, the government will not accept silver—only its own currency.

    This highlights a frequently misunderstood aspect of fiat money. It isn’t “backed by nothing.” Its value lies in granting access to participate fully in the issuing country’s economy.

    If that seems abstract, think of a work or residency permit. Without it, economic participation is limited and costly. With it, participation becomes smoother, safer, and more efficient. Currency functions similarly.

    Now ask yourself: which currency would most likely be accepted almost anywhere in the world—from a remote market to a major city?

    A crisp $100 US bill would probably be welcomed in more places than most alternatives. This isn’t because the paper itself has special intrinsic value. It reflects the network effect: what is already widely recognized and used carries greater practical utility than lesser-known options.

    No single form of money perfectly combines store of value, ease of exchange, universal acceptance, and low friction. Searching for one flawless form is probably futile. Instead, currencies that provide:

    1. Access to the largest economic sphere,
    2. The strongest network effect and recognition, and
    3. Reliable price discovery with relatively stable value

    That will tend to have higher utility and lower transaction costs than competing alternatives.

    Demand for a currency arises from multiple sources: the desire to preserve value, the need to transact, and the appeal of participating in the broadest economic network.

    State-issued money has another distinctive trait: its supply can expand or contract. If supply grows more slowly than demand, purchasing power can rise—just as with any other commodity.

    Supply is easier to measure than demand, which reflects the collective decisions of millions seeking safety, liquidity, efficiency, and opportunity.

    The argument for continued US dollar dominance rests on its imperfect but still advantageous blend of features: relatively transparent pricing, low-friction transactions, powerful global network effects, and access to the world’s largest economic system.

    These strengths are not merely products of short-term central bank policies. They reflect the broader framework of governance, institutions, economic depth, social trust, and cultural influence behind the issuing state.

    If global uncertainty increases, demand for such a currency could outpace supply. As demand rises and network effects strengthen, a self-reinforcing cycle may emerge—supporting, rather than undermining, the dollar’s supremacy.

    Money behaves in peculiar ways. We often assume we fully understand it, and even when we’re convinced a currency is about to collapse, it somehow endures—and sometimes even outperforms expectations.

    The goal here isn’t to make a prediction. Rather, it’s to remain open-minded about currency as both a social construct and a vessel of utility value.

    Sources: Charles

  • Bitcoin slides beneath $64,000, dragging BCH, HYPE and PUMP lower

    • Bitcoin Cash slipped below the $500 mark on Tuesday, extending losses after plunging 13% in the previous session.
    • Hyperliquid fell another 1% on Tuesday, marking its fourth straight day of declines following Monday’s sharp 9% drop.
    • Pump.fun also came under pressure, sliding beneath a key psychological support level after tumbling 11% on Monday.

    Altcoins such as Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Hyperliquid (HYPE), and Pump.fun (PUMP) have led declines over the past 24 hours as Bitcoin slipped below the $64,000 level on Tuesday. Technical indicators for BCH, HYPE, and PUMP point to further downside risks amid broad-based market selling.

    The wider cryptocurrency market remains under strain as Donald Trump explores new legal avenues, citing national security concerns, to introduce additional tariffs. Meanwhile, U.S. equities ended Monday’s session in negative territory, adding to the cautious tone across risk assets.

    CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 11, signaling extreme fear in the market and underscoring that sellers remain firmly in control.

    Bitcoin Cash slips beneath the $500 mark

    Bitcoin Cash was trading below the $500 level on Tuesday, extending losses after plunging 13% in the prior session. The altcoin has slipped beneath its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $544, while the 50-day EMA — now trending lower at $555 — is approaching a potential death cross formation.

    Technically, the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside, with the next key support seen around $443, corresponding to the October 17 low.

    Daily chart indicators reinforce the bearish momentum shift. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 36, edging closer to oversold territory as selling pressure intensifies. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below its signal line, signaling a bearish crossover.

    BCH/USDT

    If Bitcoin Cash reclaims the $500 psychological barrier with a strong daily close above it, selling pressure could begin to fade, potentially paving the way for a rebound toward the 200-day EMA near $544.

    Hyperliquid retreats amid mounting downside momentum

    Hyperliquid was trading below $26 on Tuesday, extending losses after falling 9% in the previous session. The HYPE token has now declined for a fourth straight day and remains well under both its 50-day EMA at $29.08 and 200-day EMA at $32.37, reinforcing a bearish outlook.

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 38 and continues to trend lower, with further room before entering oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and its signal line are steadily declining, with widening bearish histogram bars signaling strengthening downside momentum.

    Immediate support levels are seen at $23.58, marking the December 21 low, followed by $20.82, the October 10 low.

    HYPE/USDT

    On the upside, Hyperliquid would need to break back above its 50-day EMA at $29.08 to revive short-term bullish momentum and signal the start of a potential recovery.

    Pump.fun slides toward all-time low amid heavy selling

    Pump.fun was trading around $0.001800 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after tumbling 11% in the previous session. The meme-coin launchpad token has continued its broader downtrend since late September and is now eyeing support at $0.001678 — a level that previously sparked a rebound on February 6.

    A firm break and close below this support could open the door to further losses toward the S2 pivot at $0.001199.

    Momentum indicators point to mounting downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 37, hovering just above oversold territory and reflecting persistent selling interest. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and its signal line have resumed a downward trajectory following a bearish crossover on Monday, indicating renewed negative momentum.

    PUMP/USDT

    If Pump.fun climbs back above the S1 pivot at $0.001945, it may pave the way for a move toward the 50-day EMA near $0.002300, potentially easing near-term bearish pressure.

    Sources: Vishal

  • Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC breakdown signals a deeper pullback as ETH and XRP widen declines

    • Bitcoin falls beneath the lower boundary of its consolidation range on Monday, and a decisive close below this level could open the door to a more pronounced correction.
    • Ethereum drops under $1,900, marking a continuation of its six-week decline.
    • XRP dips below $1.40, unable to hold support at the lower edge of its trendline channel.

    Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) continue to weaken on Monday after posting modest losses last week. BTC has slipped beneath the $65,000 consolidation floor, while ETH has fallen under $1,900, both marking a sixth consecutive week of declines. Meanwhile, XRP drops below $1.40, failing to hold support at its lower trendline — collectively signaling the risk of a deeper correction across the top three cryptocurrencies.

    Bitcoin breaks below consolidation support

    Bitcoin had been trading within a sideways range between $65,729 and $71,746 since February 7. On Monday, BTC moved below the lower boundary of this range, changing hands near $64,700.

    A confirmed daily close beneath $65,729 would strengthen the bearish case and could open the path toward the next major support around $60,000.

    On the daily chart, the RSI stands at 31, hovering close to oversold territory and reflecting strong downside momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD lines are tightening, suggesting growing indecision in the market.

    BTC/USDT

    However, if BTC manages to reclaim and hold above the $65,729 level, a rebound toward the upper boundary of the range at $71,746 remains possible.

    Ethereum extends its correction

    Ethereum continued to edge lower last week, prolonging its slide that began in mid-January. As of Monday, ETH is down 4.77%, trading around $1,864.

    A daily close beneath the lower consolidation boundary at $1,747 would reinforce the bearish outlook and could drive prices toward the next key support at $1,669.

    Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum’s RSI points to strengthening downside momentum, while the MACD lines are narrowing, reflecting growing uncertainty among market participants.

    ETH/USDT

    On the flip side, a recovery from current levels could see ETH rebound toward the upper end of its consolidation range near $2,149.

    XRP deepens its pullback after breaking below key lower trendline support.

    XRP is hovering below $1.40 on Monday after slipping beneath the lower boundary of a falling wedge pattern.

    Should the pullback persist, the token may slide further toward the weekly support around $1.30.

    Similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP’s RSI points to building bearish pressure, while the MACD lines are tightening, signaling trader uncertainty.

    XRP/USDT

    On the other hand, if price manages to reclaim and hold the lower trendline as support, a rebound toward the psychological $1.50 level could follow.

    Sources: Manish Chhetri 

  • Markets in Focus – USD/MXN, S&P 500, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Gold, Bitcoin, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

    USD/MXN

    The US dollar at one stage surged sharply against the Mexican peso, but by week’s end it had given back some of those gains. The 17.00 area below continues to act as a key support zone, and a decisive break beneath it could open the door for a move toward 16.50.

    While short-term bounces are possible, the broader setup suggests selling into strength. The 17.50 region remains a significant resistance barrier, and the wide interest rate differential still strongly favors the Mexican peso.

    S&P 500

    The S&P 500 pulled back early in the week but appears to be stabilizing as it continues to trade within a broader consolidation range. Since early December, price action has been confined between 6,800 and 7,000, suggesting a market building momentum for its next major move.

    The bias still leans to the upside. A decisive daily close above 7,000 could trigger a stronger breakout and accelerate gains. On the other hand, a breakdown below 6,800 would signal a shift in tone and mark a more bearish development.

    EUR/USD

    The euro declined notably over the course of the week, but it continues to find buyers near the 1.18 level, making that area especially important to watch. Given the current structure, caution is warranted when trading this pair.

    Price action appears largely range-bound, with 1.18 acting as a central pivot or magnet. Resistance stands near 1.1850, while solid support can be found around 1.1750, reinforcing the broader sideways pattern.

    USD/CAD

    The US dollar has advanced against the Canadian dollar, but price action remains choppy around the 1.3750 zone — an area that has repeatedly proven significant. The pair appears to be oscillating as traders assess whether momentum can build for a sustained move higher.

    A decisive push and hold above 1.3750 would signal renewed strength for the US dollar. Conversely, a breakdown below 1.35 would represent a notably bearish shift in sentiment.

    Major Technical Support and Resistance Levels

    Gold (XAU/USD)

    Gold remains choppy, initially easing back during the week, yet buyers continue to emerge on dips, stepping in whenever prices soften. The 4,800 level appears to be firm support, while the 5,000 mark is likely to act as a psychological magnet for price action.

    The broader bias still favors buying pullbacks, with the expectation of an eventual move higher. However, volatility may persist after the sharp turbulence seen in recent weeks, following what had previously been a near one-way surge. Over the longer term, a retest of the highs seems plausible, though it will likely require patience amid ongoing fluctuations.

    Bitcoin (BTC)

    The Bitcoin market is still searching for renewed upside momentum, but the encouraging development is that price action has at least stabilized. Given the prolonged weakness seen in recent periods, simple stability is a constructive step forward for the market.

    The $60,000 level remains a crucial support zone and a major psychological benchmark. Holding above this area is essential if Bitcoin is to maintain any realistic prospect of a sustained recovery.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar posted solid gains against the Japanese yen over the week, with the ¥152 level continuing to provide strong support. The 50-week EMA is positioned just beneath that area, reinforcing the floor and encouraging dip-buying as the interest rate differential remains in favor of the US dollar.

    With the Bank of Japan maintaining its current policy stance, there appears to be little immediate catalyst for a structural shift. As a result, the pair may be entering a consolidation range between ¥152 on the downside and ¥158 on the upside. A decisive move above ¥160 would represent a significant breakout, clearing a resistance zone that has been in place since 1990.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound declined sharply during the week, dropping to test the 1.35 level — a large, round psychological threshold that has proven important on multiple occasions. The fact that buyers are attempting to defend this area is at least a constructive short-term signal.

    However, recent UK economic data has been somewhat underwhelming. As a result, sterling may currently be one of the weaker major currencies against the US dollar. This pair deserves close monitoring, as broader dollar strength could translate into pronounced downside pressure here, potentially making GBP/USD particularly vulnerable.

    Sources: Lewis

  • Digital assets remain stable as markets weigh inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions, according to Nexo.

    Cryptocurrency markets moved within a tight range late in the week as traders remained cautious ahead of important U.S. inflation and growth releases. According to Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev, broader macro uncertainty continues to guide investor sentiment.

    Bitcoin held just above the $68,000 mark, while Ethereum struggled to push past $2,000, signaling selective positioning rather than a broad return to risk appetite. A more guarded macro tone has emerged in recent days, with hawkish cues from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes pressuring risk assets and strengthening the view that interest rate cuts may come later than previously anticipated.

    Geopolitical concerns have further shaped market behavior. Heightened tensions involving the U.S. and Iran have driven demand for traditional safe havens such as the U.S. dollar and gold, while capping gains in liquidity-driven assets like cryptocurrencies.

    Kalchev highlighted that U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted around $165 million in net outflows, and Ethereum ETFs saw roughly $130 million withdrawn. These flows reflect a broader sense of institutional caution as investors recalibrate exposure amid persistent macro volatility.

    Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase following its early-February pullback, even as underlying network metrics improve. Mining difficulty has risen notably, and hashrate levels have recovered, pointing to structural strength despite muted price action. Still, analysts note that the asset remains highly responsive to macro signals—particularly inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.

    Outside of crypto, financial markets have displayed uneven risk appetite. Gold is trading near record highs, and the dollar is on course for a strong weekly advance as investors hedge against geopolitical instability and interest rate uncertainty.

    Looking ahead, market participants are closely watching upcoming U.S. Core PCE inflation data and GDP figures. These releases could determine whether digital assets break out of their current consolidation range or continue moving sideways. While regulatory progress on stablecoin legislation may serve as a longer-term structural driver, Kalchev emphasized that near-term price movements will likely remain tied to macro developments and investor positioning.

    Sources: Investing

  • Bitcoin rebounds toward $68K but stays vulnerable to rate and geopolitical pressures.

    Bitcoin edged higher on Friday, drawing some support from dip-buying after recent losses, though overall sentiment toward cryptocurrencies remained weighed down by uncertainty over U.S. interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions.

    The world’s largest digital asset was still on track for a weekly decline, as a short-lived rebound from last week quickly lost momentum. Bitcoin has also fallen roughly 25% so far in 2026.

    Bitcoin climbed to $67,843.1 by 01:21 ET (06:21 GMT). Despite the modest uptick, it was down 2.8% for the week and poised to register losses in five of the past seven weeks.

    Rate uncertainty intensifies ahead of PCE, GDP data

    Bitcoin and the broader crypto market extended declines this week as demand for speculative assets weakened amid growing doubts about the U.S. rate outlook.

    Concerns escalated after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting revealed that several policymakers supported keeping the door open to further rate hikes to counter inflation risks — a backdrop that typically pressures high-risk assets.

    A string of mixed inflation and labor market reports has further clouded expectations for monetary policy. Cryptocurrencies are particularly sensitive to higher interest rates, as they tend to perform better in environments flush with liquidity.

    Investors are now awaiting December’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — due later Friday, along with fourth-quarter gross domestic product data, both of which could shape longer-term rate expectations.

    Iran tensions dent risk appetite

    Risk sentiment was also dampened by escalating geopolitical strains between the U.S. and Iran. President Donald Trump reiterated threats of military action if Tehran fails to agree to a nuclear deal, while multiple reports indicated Washington is weighing several military options and has increased its regional presence.

    The heightened tensions curbed appetite for riskier assets such as Bitcoin, prompting some traders to favor traditional safe havens including the U.S. dollar and gold.

    Altcoins head for weekly losses

    Broader crypto markets traded in a narrow range on Friday, with most major altcoins also facing another week of declines.

    The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, slipped 1.5% to $1,954.09 and was set for a 6.2% weekly drop.

    XRP and BNB were down around 6% and 3% for the week, respectively, while Cardano and Solana were on track for losses of roughly 5% to 7%.

    Among meme tokens, Dogecoin was headed for an 11% weekly decline.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Gold Moves in a Tight Range, but Technical Setup Signals Potential Surge Toward $6,800 if Breakout Occurs

    The Chinese Spring Festival (Chinese New Year) holiday is now underway, a period that has historically coincided with softer fiat-denominated gold prices.

    Meanwhile, gold is carving out a consolidation range between $4,400 and $5,600. The longer price action remains compressed within this band, the more constructive the setup becomes.

    Extended consolidation typically builds pressure — increasing the probability of an eventual upside breakout and a potential rally toward $6,800.

    Here’s another perspective on the price action. Notice the channel outlined by the dotted blue trendlines.

    Gold has broken decisively above that channel and now seems to be digesting the move, consolidating gains after the breakout.

    Seasonal softness across the metals complex could linger until the Chinese holiday concludes. For enthusiastic Western gold investors, this pullback phase may present an opportunity to increase exposure to gold, silver, and mining equities.

    I’ve outlined what I call an emerging “gold bull era,” driven less by Western fear-based demand and more by the structural economic ascent of China and India—an expansion powerful enough to overshadow the West’s traditional crisis trade.

    This new phase could also unfold alongside rapid automation, with hundreds of millions of robots taking on work that inflation-strained populations—both East and West—are increasingly burdened by.

    In such an environment, widespread income support could evolve into significantly higher baseline incomes, and gold-oriented Asian consumers may expand their purchases well beyond already robust levels.

    In the West, the backdrop looks increasingly fragile. Job growth in 2025 has been minimal, with the latest ADP data showing only around 22,000 positions added in January.

    By contrast, the official government report showed a gain of 130,000 jobs. That wide gap raises questions—either the data contains significant distortions, or much of the hiring is concentrated in government roles funded by expanding public debt.

    The core fear-trade argument is straightforward: if private-sector job creation continues to stall while debt-financed employment props up the headline numbers, underlying economic weakness may deepen.

    Unless productivity gains from automation are formally reflected in economic measurements, the strain between slowing human employment and rising fiscal burdens could intensify.

    For investors focused on hedging systemic risk, the question becomes familiar: is your portfolio positioned with assets designed to weather instability?

    How about silver? The head-and-shoulders top currently forming is a bearish technical pattern pointing toward the $20 area. What might invalidate this setup?

    A rally to $87 would push silver back above three of the shoulders in the formation. An additional climb to $93 would fully invalidate the pattern and deal a severe blow to heavily leveraged bears.

    Being a pure silver bug—someone almost entirely invested in silver—demands serious conviction and resilience. For the average investor newly drawn to this remarkable metal, it’s wise to keep ample cash on hand to take advantage of unexpected price pullbacks.

    What about the miners? On the CDNX daily chart, the RSI and Stochastics are showing positive signals, but the key 20,40,10 MACD is still sluggish and lacking momentum. If that indicator begins to strengthen, the uptrend in junior mining stocks should pick back up.

    The CDNX weekly chart looks impressive. The base formation is strong and likely signals further upside not only for juniors, but also for intermediate and senior mining companies.

    The most probable near-term outlook is a brief pause as Chinese investors step back for the New Year holiday, followed by a solid rally into April for the mining sector. After that, a seasonal consolidation through the summer seems likely, before a powerful, decisive breakout above the 1177 highs.

    In the meantime, many individual mining stocks could “front-run” the CDNX, advancing to fresh highs ahead of the broader index.

    Looking at the long-term chart of the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF versus gold, mining stocks appear strikingly undervalued—arguably the cheapest sector relative to its underlying asset in modern market history.

    The encouraging part is that this imbalance may be only months away from correcting through the only reset that truly counts: a major revaluation of gold equities relative to gold itself.

    The weekly chart of Lundin Gold is particularly compelling. While most gold producers report all-in sustaining costs (AISC) below $2,000 per ounce—and silver producers around $20—Lundin’s AISC is closer to $1,000, underscoring its strong cost position. Still, even the most efficient miners require periodic technical pauses. The behavior of the key 5 and 15 moving averages highlights these natural consolidation phases.

    Pullbacks across the mining sector—both juniors and seniors—can offer strategic entry points, especially as gold continues to consolidate following its broader fundamental breakout.

    Some investors even speculate that the fiat price of gold could eventually exceed that of Bitcoin, viewing bitcoin primarily as a liquidity vehicle to accumulate more gold. Over time, rising global demand—particularly from China—could further reinforce gold’s long-term appeal.

    Sources: Stewart Thomson

  • SUI continues to trade in a narrow range as markets await the launch of Grayscale’s GSUI ETF.

    Sui remains under pressure near $0.96 as its technical outlook continues to weaken. The upcoming launch of the Grayscale Sui Staking ETF on Wednesday will give investors exposure to the Sui Network’s native token. However, subdued retail participation — with futures Open Interest hovering just above $500 million — could restrain any meaningful breakout attempt.

    Sui (SUI) has extended its decline for a second straight session, trading around $0.95 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The Layer-1 token has dropped more than 16% in February and is down roughly 34% year-to-date, mirroring the broader bearish tone across the crypto market.

    Technically, Sui risks prolonging its downtrend amid weak retail engagement. While support at $0.87 remains intact for now, a decisive break below this level could open the door for a pullback toward the $0.79 demand zone.

    Grayscale’s Sui Staking ETF begins trading

    Grayscale Investments has confirmed the launch of its Sui Staking Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), set to start trading Wednesday. The fund is listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker GSUI, following the conversion of the former Grayscale Sui Trust. The ETF is expected to hold SUI tokens and incorporate staking.

    According to Grayscale, while purchasing shares does not constitute direct ownership of SUI, the product is structured to offer a cost-efficient and accessible way for investors to gain exposure to the token.

    The Bank of New York Mellon will act as the trust’s transfer agent and administrator. Coinbase, Inc. will serve as prime broker, while Coinbase Custody Trust Company will function as custodian.

    Investors can purchase shares only in creation blocks of 10,000 units or more.

    Despite the ETF debut, retail demand for Sui remains muted. Futures Open Interest has slipped to $512 million on Wednesday from $554 million on Sunday, signaling limited appetite for new positions. The stagnation suggests traders remain unconvinced about the token’s ability to sustain a meaningful recovery, opting instead to scale back exposure.

    Technical outlook: Sui’s downtrend remains intact

    Sui is trading around $0.95, still capped below the declining 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.28, maintaining a bearish medium-term outlook. The 100-day EMA at $1.58 and the 200-day EMA at $2.02 are also trending lower, continuing to limit recovery attempts.

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 36, below the neutral 50 level, signaling persistent weakness. A sustained pickup in buying pressure could help improve momentum. However, if the RSI drifts further into oversold territory, the decline may accelerate toward support near $0.78 — in line with the February 6 low.

    A decisive break above descending trendline resistance would create scope for a move toward the 100-day EMA at $1.58. Conversely, failure to extend any rebound would leave the broader downtrend firmly in control.

    Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive and is gradually expanding, showing the MACD line above the signal line near the zero threshold — an early sign of strengthening momentum. The Parabolic SAR, positioned at $0.86 below the current price, also suggests a tentative stabilization attempt.

    Sources: John Isige

  • Bitcoin Still Feels the Impact of the “10/10” Market Meltdown

    Four months ago, the digital asset market experienced what I consider its most significant liquidation event to date. On October 10, 2025, more than $19 billion in leveraged positions were erased within a matter of hours. Bitcoin tumbled from around $122,000 to $105,000, and over 1.6 million trader accounts were forced into liquidation.

    The so-called “10/10” crypto crash did more than shake prices—it reshaped the psychological backdrop of crypto investing.

    As I mentioned on PreMarket Prep last week, from a technical perspective Bitcoin is currently trading about two standard deviations below its 20-day average—a condition that has appeared only three times in the past five years. Historically, such stretched readings have tended to precede short-term rebounds over the following 20 trading sessions.

    The unwinding of the Japanese carry trade—estimated at roughly $500 billion—likely added to the weakness seen in January and again this month. Still, I believe much of that pressure has now run its course.

    With Bitcoin still trading below $70,000—about 45% off its all-time high—some investors may be asking whether the events of October 10 are the reason the downturn has lingered.

    The short answer is yes. But the deeper explanation is more complex—and, in my view, more relevant for portfolio positioning going forward.

    What Really Happened

    To put it in context, the 10/10 crash surpassed the FTX collapse in absolute dollar losses. It effectively overshadowed the failure of what had been the world’s second-largest crypto exchange. Binance alone reportedly drew $188 million from its insurance fund to cover bad debt, while several other trading platforms faced comparable strains.

    As for the catalyst, many point to President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, layered on top of an existing 30% levy.

    That geopolitical jolt rattled global markets. But in crypto—where leverage is deeply embedded in the system—it transformed what might have been a routine correction into a cascading liquidation event.

    The crash laid bare deep structural flaws in how exchanges were managing risk, with one platform in particular drawing scrutiny.

    The Binance Factor

    Star Xu, founder and CEO of OKX, recently posted a detailed breakdown on X outlining his view of how the 10/10 meltdown unfolded.

    According to Xu, Binance rolled out an aggressive user acquisition push offering 12% APY on USDe, a synthetic dollar built on Ethereum. At the same time, the exchange permitted USDe to be posted as collateral under the same terms as established stablecoins such as Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC).

    Xu argues this created a distorted incentive structure. Users were enticed to swap USDT and USDC for USDe in pursuit of higher yields, often without fully appreciating the added risk profile.

    A leverage loop soon followed. Traders converted USDT into USDe, pledged USDe as collateral to borrow more USDT, then recycled the borrowed funds back into USDe—repeating the process. Xu claims this dynamic drove advertised yields as high as 24%, 36%, and even above 70%.

    When volatility surged, USDe quickly lost its peg, unleashing cascading liquidations. The market entered a classic doom loop: forced selling triggered margin calls, which in turn sparked further forced selling.

    For its part, Binance has denied responsibility. Speaking at a crypto conference last week, co-CEO Richard Teng attributed the turmoil entirely to President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement. Still, allowing heavily leveraged positions in a market where stop-losses can be gamed and safeguards are thin creates systemic fragility. In such an environment, even a minor shock can ignite a chain reaction.

    The Psychological Fallout

    October 10 erased more than leveraged trades—it shattered investor confidence. The event coincided with Bitcoin peaking near $126,000 and sparked a wave of fear that continues to weigh on sentiment.

    In the weeks that followed, ETFs saw meaningful outflows. Retail traders—many of whom had piled into futures and margin positions as Bitcoin hit record highs—were hit hardest. More than 1.6 million accounts were liquidated, a large share belonging to smaller participants.

    This month’s follow-on decline, which marked Bitcoin’s largest realized loss on record as prices slid from $70,000 to $60,000, was described by one analyst as a “textbook capitulation.” The drop was swift, volume-heavy, and flushed out holders with the weakest conviction.

    Why I’m Still Constructive

    Despite persistent volatility, I remain long-term bullish because the underlying fundamentals remain intact.

    Institutional participation continues to expand. Corporate Bitcoin treasuries—often referred to as Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) firms—now collectively control more than 1.1 million BTC, about 5.7% of total supply, valued near $90 billion. MicroStrategy (now operating as Strategy) alone holds roughly 3.5% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

    Notably, institutions added around 43,000 BTC in January, even amid adverse price conditions—suggesting that long-term capital remains engaged despite the market’s recent turbulence.

    The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve now reportedly holds more than 325,000 BTC—about 1.6% of total supply—making it the largest sovereign holder globally. At the same time, other nation-states are building positions, much as they do with gold, and major corporations continue to add to their allocations.

    The Bottom Line

    I’ve long described Bitcoin as “digital gold,” but I don’t believe it has fully evolved into a true safe-haven asset. For now, institutions largely categorize it as a risk-on asset rather than risk-off. That suggests it is still carving out its place within diversified portfolios.

    Was October 10 the root cause of Bitcoin’s prolonged weakness? In my view, yes. The event delivered a structural shock that obliterated leveraged positions and forced a sweeping—if painful—deleveraging across the digital asset ecosystem.

    Did aggressive marketing and flawed incentive structures at certain platforms worsen the fallout? Again, I would argue yes. Encouraging investors to treat what was effectively a tokenized hedge strategy as if it were a stablecoin—while layering on substantial leverage—inevitably magnified systemic risk.

    As severe as the collapse was, it may ultimately prove constructive. Excess leverage often needs to be purged before a sustainable advance can resume. My sense is that we are nearing the final phase of that cleansing process.

    Sources: Frank Holmes

  • Bitcoin drops to $68,000 as crypto markets extend losses into a fourth straight week.

    Bitcoin declined on Monday, deepening its downturn after crypto markets posted four consecutive weeks of heavy losses, as interest-rate uncertainty continued to dampen appetite for riskier assets.

    The largest cryptocurrency briefly touched $70,000 over the weekend before retreating. By 00:58 ET (05:58 GMT), Bitcoin was down 2.7% at $68,409.7.

    Strategy says liquidation unlikely unless Bitcoin drops to $8,000

    Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR), the biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin, said Sunday it can meet its debt obligations even if Bitcoin tumbles to $8,000. In a social media update, the company stated it could “withstand a drawdown in $BTC price to $8K and still have sufficient assets to fully cover our debt.”

    The firm owns 714,644 Bitcoins, financed through a combination of equity issuance and long-term borrowing. Led by prominent Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, Strategy has continued accumulating coins in recent weeks despite the broader market slide.

    Bitcoin has now erased about half its value since peaking near $126,000 in October, leading declines across speculative assets as traders grew cautious amid U.S. rate uncertainty.

    Extended losses had fueled speculation that Strategy might be forced to sell part of its holdings to service debt, though Saylor has repeatedly downplayed such concerns. Earlier this month, the company reported a $12.4 billion loss for the December quarter, compared with a $670.8 million loss a year earlier. Aside from its substantial Bitcoin position, Strategy generates relatively limited operating revenue.

    Crypto prices today: Altcoins mirror Bitcoin’s weakness

    Broader digital assets also moved lower Monday in line with Bitcoin’s sustained slump. Ethereum fell 6.1% to $1,958.63, while XRP dropped 7.7% to $1.4575.

    BNB declined about 4%, with Solana and Cardano sliding 5.4% and 6.2%, respectively.

    Among meme tokens, Dogecoin tumbled 11.4%, while TRUMP slipped 2.4%.

    Crypto sentiment has remained fragile since October, as both retail and institutional inflows slowed sharply. Meanwhile, a surge in gold prices amid speculative enthusiasm in precious metals has drawn attention away from Bitcoin, with investors favoring tangible assets.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Bitcoin steadies after gaining nearly 4%, yet remains on track for a fourth straight weekly decline.

    Bitcoin snapped a four-session slide on Friday, climbing nearly 4%, though it remained on course for its first four-week losing streak since November 2025. The leading cryptocurrency was up 3.7% at $68,776.1 by 17:15 ET (22:15 GMT), after dropping close to $65,000 in the prior session.

    Bitcoin pressured by tech slump as U.S. inflation eases.

    While Friday’s rebound trimmed some weekly losses, Bitcoin was still headed for a roughly 0.6% decline, struggling to build lasting upside momentum after bouncing from earlier lows and drifting back toward last week’s $60,000 support zone.

    Risk appetite has been fragile amid a prolonged selloff in technology stocks, driven by renewed concerns that artificial intelligence could disrupt traditional software and office-service business models. Those fears resurfaced on Thursday as investors questioned how automation and emerging AI tools might erode established revenue streams.

    At the same time, fresh U.S. inflation data showed price pressures eased more than anticipated in January. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.7% in December, while core CPI increased 2.5%, matching forecasts.

    On a monthly basis, headline CPI gained 0.2% and core CPI 0.3%, with the softer headline figure boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve could move toward policy easing. However, strong labor market data earlier in the week—highlighting solid payroll growth and a lower unemployment rate—had dampened hopes for near-term rate cuts.

    Dessislava Ianeva of Nexo Dispatch noted that crypto markets appear to be stabilizing after the softer CPI reading, even as ETF outflows continue, with positioning data suggesting lower leverage and consolidation rather than a fresh directional breakout.

    Crypto leaders appointed to CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee.

    Separately, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission appointed several prominent crypto executives to its new Innovation Advisory Committee, including Brian Armstrong of Coinbase, Brad Garlinghouse of Ripple, Vladimir Tenev of Robinhood, and Hayden Adams of Uniswap Labs.

    The committee will advise on emerging technologies such as blockchain and AI in derivatives and crypto markets, as regulators clarify oversight of digital assets, with the CFTC expected to take a leading role.

    Elsewhere in the market, altcoins also advanced. Ethereum jumped 5.4% to $2,049.07, XRP rose 2.8% to $1.40, Solana surged 8.3%, Cardano gained 4.1%, and Dogecoin added 4.7%.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Bitcoin: Regaining This Key Level Is Crucial for a Broader Sentiment Reset

    Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak near $126,000 and is now trading around $65,000, marking a far deeper retracement than a routine correction. This downturn reflects not just price volatility but a broader shift in the macro backdrop and crypto’s structural dynamics.

    Macro Pressures Reshape the Cycle

    As institutional participation has increased, Bitcoin has become more tightly linked to global financial conditions. Rather than acting as “digital gold,” it has moved in closer correlation with U.S. equities—especially technology stocks. Ongoing uncertainty about the pace of disinflation, combined with renewed tariff measures from the Trump Administration targeting Europe and Asia, has strengthened the U.S. dollar and dampened overall risk appetite. Concerns that the artificial intelligence boom may be maturing have further pressured growth assets, including crypto.

    Miner Stress and Institutional Retreat

    On-chain and industry data reveal mounting supply-side pressure. With the estimated average mining cost around $87,000, many miners are operating below breakeven at current price levels. To stay solvent, some have been liquidating reserves, adding persistent sell-side pressure to the market.

    Institutional flows tell a similar story. Roughly $5 billion has exited Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks, signaling a rotation into safer assets. Meanwhile, reports of operational pauses at certain established crypto platforms have revived memories of the 2022 bankruptcy wave, further unsettling sentiment.

    The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains entrenched in the 5–8 range—classified as “extreme fear”—highlighting the depth of caution across the market.

    The Technical Road Ahead

    For sentiment to meaningfully reset, Bitcoin must reclaim the $70,000–$78,000 zone, which now represents a critical resistance band. A sustained move above that range would signal renewed confidence and potentially mark the beginning of a recovery phase. Until then, macro headwinds, miner capitulation risks, and fragile investor psychology are likely to continue defining the tone of this cycle.

    Bitcoin Technical Outlook

    On the daily chart, Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize in a critical technical zone. After sliding to roughly $60,000 last week, price rebounded, but the recovery stalled near $70,000 as sellers re-emerged. Over the past week, Bitcoin has remained below its 8-day EMA, signaling short-term weakness and keeping the broader technical bias cautious.

    The $62,800 area—aligned with the Fibonacci 1.272 extension—now stands out as key support. The earlier bounce from $60,000 suggests buyers are active in this region and view it as a potential base. However, a daily close below that level could accelerate downside pressure, exposing the next major support near $55,000, around the Fibonacci 1.414 extension.

    One constructive signal comes from momentum indicators. On the daily timeframe, the Stochastic RSI is showing positive divergence: while price has continued to drift lower, the indicator has turned upward from oversold territory. This often signals waning downside momentum and can precede sharp countertrend rallies, including short squeezes or bear traps. Still, for a rebound to evolve into a durable recovery, Bitcoin must reclaim key resistance levels and short-term moving averages. Until then, the market remains delicately balanced between support and renewed selling.

    Critical Resistance Levels for a Trend Reversal

    A sustained recovery would first require a decisive break above the psychological $70,000 level, ideally accompanied by strong trading volume. Without volume confirmation, upside moves may lack conviction.

    A more robust trend reversal signal would come from breaking the descending trendline and reclaiming the Fibonacci 1.0 level near $76,350. The broader $76,000–$78,000 band represents a major technical barrier. Unless Bitcoin can firmly establish itself above this zone, rallies are likely to remain corrective within a broader medium-term downtrend.

    Is a Short Squeeze Setup Building?

    Bitcoin futures funding rates are hovering around -0.006%, indicating short positioning dominates. When leverage becomes skewed heavily to one side, sharp counter-moves often follow as liquidity is cleared. Combined with the positive Stochastic RSI divergence, this creates the potential for a swift spike toward $70,000.

    Zooming out, Bitcoin appears to be navigating a capitulation phase marked by ETF outflows, miner pressure, and macro uncertainty. At the same time, some technical signals hint at a cleansing process that could reset positioning.

    A conservative stance would wait for weekly closes above $78,000 before declaring a structural recovery. More tactical traders may view the Stoch RSI divergence as an opportunity for a move toward $70,000, with $62,800 serving as a clear risk threshold.

    As the crypto sector enters what looks like a period of corporate restructuring in early 2026, the $55,000 region could eventually be seen as a longer-term base—if stabilization holds. Until stronger confirmation emerges, disciplined risk management remains critical: reduced leverage, smaller position sizing, and strict stop-loss levels are essential in this highly volatile environment.

    Sources: Günay Caymaz

  • Bitcoin Open Interest Reaches $34B as Dollar Weakness Hides Steady Leverage Demand

    Total Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to $34 billion as of Thursday, marking a 28% drop over the past month. However, this decline appears largely driven by price effects rather than a reduction in leverage. When measured in Bitcoin terms, open interest remains broadly unchanged at 502,450 BTC, indicating that underlying demand for leveraged exposure is still intact.

    Over the past two weeks, forced liquidations have reached $5.2 billion, contributing significantly to the contraction in nominal dollar terms. Meanwhile, options markets show a 22% bearish skew, and funding rates continue to stay below the 12% threshold, suggesting that sentiment remains cautious but not excessively overheated.

    Bitcoin Diverges from Traditional Markets

    Bitcoin has declined 28% over the past month, even as gold surged back above the $5,000 psychological threshold and the S&P 500 remains just 1% shy of its record high. This growing divergence has prompted investors to question what is driving crypto’s relative weakness. One possible explanation lies in softer US labor data, with the economy adding only 181,000 jobs in 2025—falling short of expectations.

    In derivatives markets, sentiment remains cautious. The annualized funding rate on Bitcoin futures has stayed below the neutral 12% benchmark for four straight months, reflecting persistent risk aversion. Options markets show even stronger defensive positioning, as the delta skew on Deribit climbed to 22%. This suggests traders are paying a notable premium for protective put options. Under typical conditions, the skew fluctuates between -6% and +6%, signaling more balanced sentiment.

    Despite the bearish tone in derivatives, institutional participation appears steady. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs are recording average daily trading volumes of $5.4 billion, challenging narratives of fading institutional interest. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s near-term rebound may hinge on clearer signals about the direction of the US labor market and broader macroeconomic stability.

    Sources: Isai Alexei

  • Yen Regains Strength: Implications for Forex Traders and Investors

    Understanding the Yen’s Recent Climb

    If you’ve been tracking currency markets, you’ve likely seen the Japanese yen advance for three straight sessions, trading near the 153 JPY/USD level. This move isn’t random—it reflects deeper shifts in forex positioning and strategic reallocations by Japanese investment funds.

    Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, the yen has gained ground. The key driver appears to be a rotation in positioning: Japanese hedge funds and institutional investors have closed out prior bearish bets on the yen and are now positioning for further appreciation. This shift highlights a broader change in sentiment and confidence within the currency market.

    What’s Fueling the Move?

    The primary catalyst is renewed buying interest from Japanese funds. After unwinding short-yen trades, they are now building long positions, anticipating continued strength. Market perceptions of the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan’s commitment to currency stability are also contributing to this shift.

    While U.S. macroeconomic indicators—such as payroll data—often dominate headlines, this episode shows that capital flows and institutional positioning can at times outweigh even strong economic releases.

    Authorities Remain Vigilant

    Japan’s top foreign exchange official, Junichi Mimura, has emphasized that authorities are closely monitoring currency developments and maintaining active communication with U.S. counterparts. This ongoing dialogue signals a commitment to orderly market conditions.

    For traders and investors, this reinforces an important point: currency movements are shaped not only by data, but also by policy signals, market psychology, and cross-border coordination.

    Sentiment and USD/JPY Positioning

    Recent trends indicate softer demand for USD/JPY hedging, suggesting rising confidence in the yen’s near-term outlook. Shifts in options activity often provide insight into market expectations and potential support or resistance zones.

    Whether you’re a short-term trader or a longer-term investor, staying attuned to these sentiment indicators can help refine entry points and risk management strategies.

    How to Navigate Yen Volatility

    • Monitor official communication: Watch statements from Japanese policymakers and central bank officials.
    • Apply technical analysis: Pay attention to key levels around 153 JPY/USD for potential breakout or reversal signals.
    • Control risk exposure: Use stop-loss strategies to guard against sharp counter-moves.
    • Diversify allocations: Avoid overexposure to a single currency pair by balancing across assets.

    Why It Matters

    The yen’s recent strength reflects more than price action—it represents shifting expectations, institutional flows, and evolving policy narratives. Understanding these dynamics can sharpen your broader market perspective and improve decision-making.

    In forex, staying informed is a competitive advantage. By tracking positioning trends, official commentary, and sentiment signals, you can better anticipate market turns and respond with confidence.

    Sources: Benjamin

  • BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin Faces Downside Risk as Open Interest Declines

    Here is a clearer and more professional version:

    Bearish Scenario

    • Sell BTC/USD with a take-profit target at 60,000.
    • Set a stop-loss at 71,000.
    • Time horizon: 1–2 days.

    Bullish Scenario

    • Buy BTC/USD with a take-profit target at 71,000.
    • Set a stop-loss at 60,000.

    Bitcoin remained under pressure on Thursday as investors stayed cautious and its divergence from the rallying stock market widened. The BTC/USD pair slipped below 68,000, a sharp decline from its year-to-date peak of 126,300.

    The pullback came even as US equities extended their strong advance, with the Dow Jones reaching a record high. The decline followed the release of solid US labor market data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added more than 130,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.3%. However, some analysts cautioned that the figures could be revised lower, as has happened previously.

    Indeed, revisions to last year’s employment data revealed that job growth averaged 15,000 per month, significantly below the initially reported 49,000 average.

    Bitcoin also weakened amid a continued drop in futures open interest, which has fallen to $45 billion from last year’s peak of over $95 billion—an indication that market participation and demand have cooled.

    Additional pressure followed warnings from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) about the US government’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory. The deficit is projected to rise by $4.7 trillion over the next decade. Increased immigration-related spending, estimated at more than $500 billion, is cited as one contributing factor, while Trump’s tariffs are expected to generate approximately $3 trillion in revenue.

    BTC/USD Technical Analysis

    On the daily chart, BTC/USD remains in a pronounced downtrend, sliding from its October high of 126,300 to around 67,665. The decline persists despite continued accumulation by large holders.

    Technically, Bitcoin is trading below both the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, as well as the Supertrend indicator, reinforcing the bearish bias. The MACD has crossed below the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index hovers near 30, suggesting weak momentum and near-oversold conditions.

    The most probable scenario is a continued decline toward the key support level at 60,000. Conversely, a break above the major resistance at 72,000 would negate the bearish outlook and signal the potential for renewed upside momentum.

    Sources: Crispus Nyaga