THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN

Tag: bitcoin

  • Crypto’s $19B ‘10/10’ shock: Why Binance is being blamed for Bitcoin’s ongoing crash

    Months after the October 10 liquidation cascade, crypto market depth has yet to fully recover, while debate continues over Binance’s role as Bitcoin’s sell-off persists.

    Key points to know:

    • Liquidity across major crypto markets remains thin and fragmented following the Oct. 10 crash. Wider bid-ask spreads and weakened order books are being cited as key factors behind Bitcoin’s decline from around $125,000.
    • Binance has denied allegations that an internal malfunction triggered the crash. However, critics argue that the exchange’s limited transparency has contributed to growing distrust and fueled speculation and conspiracy theories.
    • Market makers and industry leaders say the episode highlighted deeper structural vulnerabilities in crypto markets, particularly shallow liquidity and heavy dependence on leverage. Many stress that the issue extends beyond any single platform and may justify regulatory-style oversight of market structure.

    At first glance, the $19 billion liquidity wipeout on October 10 appeared to be a familiar event: a rapid cascade of liquidations across major crypto exchanges as Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, plunged sharply.

    What followed—and the continued lack of transparency surrounding the day’s events—has made the episode far more consequential. The sell-off became the largest single-day liquidation by dollar value in crypto history, leaving traders frustrated and fundamentally reshaping how crypto markets are viewed. At the center of the controversy is one name: Binance.

    For many market participants, the world’s largest crypto exchange has become the symbol of the crash, which saw Bitcoin drop by as much as 12.5%, its steepest decline in 14 months. The move triggered widespread forced closures of leveraged positions as margin levels were breached across exchanges.

    Whether due to Binance’s sheer size, its dominance in derivatives trading, or the limited clarity around what exactly transpired, the exchange has faced persistent accusations on social media, with many claiming it played a central role in the Oct. 10 event—now widely referred to as “10/10.” Binance continues to deny responsibility, maintaining that the liquidations were not caused by an internal failure. The company did not respond to a request for comment from CoinDesk for this article.

    In the absence of a clearly established narrative, it is unsurprising that traders remain unsettled.

    In the months since the crash, market liquidity has remained noticeably impaired. Order books have not fully recovered, market depth remains uneven, and bid-ask spreads have widened. Many traders argue that this weakened market structure accelerated Bitcoin’s decline from around $124,800 to $80,000 and further eroded confidence across the market.

    Adding to the debate, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood has publicly weighed in, attributing Bitcoin’s continued weakness to what she described as a “Binance software glitch.”

    Why Binance has re-emerged at the center of the debate

    Wood said in a late-January appearance on Fox Business that the alleged glitch triggered approximately $28 billion in deleveraging.

    In response, Binance co-founder He Yi pushed back online, emphasizing that Binance does not serve U.S. customers, though the post was later removed.

    Rival platforms were quick to capitalize on the moment. Star Xu, founder of competing exchange OXK, said the October 10 event caused “real and lasting damage to the industry.” While he did not name Binance directly, the remarks were widely viewed as an implicit criticism of the exchange’s role in the episode.

    At the same time, challengers such as the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid pointed to rising derivatives volumes and improving liquidity depth, positioning themselves as credible alternatives as Binance continues to grapple with reputational pressure.

    Binance has reiterated that the October 10 event was not caused by an internal system failure.

    Speaking during a Friday ask-me-anything session, co-founder and former CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao dismissed claims that Binance triggered the crash as “far-fetched.”

    According to the company, the sell-off was driven by broader market forces, including macroeconomic pressures, excessive leverage, thin liquidity, and congestion on the Ethereum network. Binance said its core systems remained fully operational throughout the episode and that it paid approximately $283 million in compensation to affected users.

    “A slap in the face”

    For some market participants, Binance’s explanation has fallen short—particularly given the sheer scale of the liquidations. The $19 billion figure has taken on disproportionate symbolic significance, with Binance’s compensation payments often viewed less as meaningful restitution and more as a small fraction of the overall damage.

    “This is a f***ing joke,” wrote the pseudonymous Bitcoin Realist on X. “You… liquidated $19 billion on 10/10 alone… This is like spitting in our faces.”

    That frustration reflects more than outrage over a single bout of volatility. For many traders, October 10 has come to represent a deeper mistrust of crypto market structure itself.

    Still, not everyone believes Binance should bear the blame.

    “10/10 was very obviously not a ‘software glitch,’” wrote Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO of market maker Wintermute, on X. “It was a flash crash in a highly leveraged market during an illiquid Friday night, driven by macro news.”

    He added: “Finding a scapegoat is comfortable, but pinning this on one exchange is intellectually dishonest.”

    The underlying argument is straightforward: crypto markets remain heavily dependent on leverage, and liquidity is often conditional rather than continuous. During periods of stress, market makers widen spreads or withdraw altogether. In such thin conditions, liquidation cascades can quickly accelerate.

    While Binance was the largest venue where the crash unfolded, it was not necessarily the origin of the shock itself.

    A lack of transparency continues to fuel speculation

    What remains absent is a formal public review and an authoritative account of what happened. Critics argue that without a thorough, transparent inquiry, speculation is free to grow unchecked.

    Salman Banaei, a former regulator at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has suggested that the events of October 10 merit regulatory scrutiny, even without any allegation of wrongdoing.

    “Whether you love or hate crypto, there should be a regulatory investigation into Oct. 10, 2025,” Banaei wrote, drawing a comparison to the May 6, 2010 stock market flash crash. “One benefit of regulation is that the mere possibility of such investigations acts as a deterrent to manipulation.”

    He emphasized that he was not asserting manipulation took place, but rather highlighting a broader structural issue: crypto markets lack the formal post-event reviews that traditional financial markets routinely conduct after systemic disruptions.

    Meanwhile, a trader known as Flood suggested that a major exchange had been steadily selling altcoins since 10/10, a claim that has fueled conspiracy theories around excess inventory.

    Whether accurate or not, such narratives tend to gain traction when liquidity dries up and market confidence weakens.

    The real problem lies in market depth, not a single exchange

    October 10 may ultimately be remembered less for the scale of the liquidations and more for what it exposed about crypto market structure.

    In bull markets, order books appear deep, leverage accumulates quietly, and liquidity feels plentiful. Bear markets reveal the opposite reality: liquidity evaporates, market makers pull back, volatility becomes concentrated, and the next shock breaks through far faster than expected.

    Reflecting on the comparison with the FTX collapse in 2022, Mike Silagadze, CEO of Ether.fi, wrote on X that “this feels far worse than the post-FTX environment. In some ways, fundamentals are stronger than ever, yet price action has virtually no bids.”

    Binance has become the most convenient scapegoat—not necessarily because it caused the crash, but because it is the largest and most visible exchange, making it an obvious target.

    The more fundamental problem, however, is structural. Crypto market liquidity remains heavily reliant on leverage, conditional market making, and confidence—all of which have steadily eroded over the past four months.

    As Eric Crown, a former options trader at NYSE Arca, put it:
    “I don’t know if Binance deliberately played a role in wrecking the market in October. I’d lean toward the obvious explanation: excessive leverage, insufficient liquidity, and largely ineffective or unwanted altcoin ‘technologies’ created the conditions for a massacre—and that’s exactly what happened.”

    “It was never a question of if, only when.”

    Sources:  Oliver Knight

  • Breaking: Bitcoin falls below $75,000 as selling pressure intensifies

    • Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Monday, sliding to its lowest level in nearly ten months.
    • Momentum indicators continue to weaken, pointing to intensifying bearish pressure and reinforcing the deteriorating technical outlook.
    • From a technical perspective, price action suggests Bitcoin could retest the $70,000 psychological support if selling pressure persists.

    Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below the $75,000 level on Monday after posting an almost 11% decline over the previous week, falling to its lowest level in nearly ten months. Market momentum has decisively turned bearish, with technical indicators signaling the potential for further downside toward the $70,000 support zone.

    Bitcoin may retest the $70,000 level if the correction extends

    Bitcoin extended its sell-off at the start of the week, falling more than 2% on Monday after a decline of over 11% the previous week. At the time of writing, BTC is trading below $75,000, a level not seen since early April.

    If Bitcoin maintains its downward trajectory, the correction could deepen toward the next major psychological support at $70,000.

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 21, signaling strong bearish momentum and deeply oversold conditions. In addition, the MACD produced a bearish crossover on January 20, which remains in place, with expanding red histogram bars below the zero line—further reinforcing the negative technical outlook.

    BTC/USDT daily chart

    Conversely, a recovery could see Bitcoin push toward the key psychological level at $80,000.

    More than $700 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours

    Bitcoin slid to levels not seen since early April, triggering a sharp wave of liquidations across the crypto market. More than $700 million in leveraged positions were wiped out over the past 24 hours, according to Coinglass.

    Long positions accounted for 77.39% of the liquidations, highlighting the market’s overly bullish positioning. The single largest liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid, where a BTCUSD position worth $15.46 million was forcibly closed. Ethereum (ETH) also experienced significant pressure, with nearly $270 million liquidated in the last 24 hours.

    Traders should remain cautious, as continued price weakness could spark further liquidations, particularly among highly leveraged participants.

    Sources: Manish Chhetri

  • Weekly FX Outlook: EUR/USD, Crude Oil, Bitcoin, Silver & Gold

    Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

    Last week’s best trade ideas were as follows:

    • Long EUR/USD after a daily close above 1.1866, resulting in a 0.24% loss.
    • Long Silver, which ended with a loss of 18.62%.
    • Long Gold after a daily close above $5,000, producing a 2.26% loss.

    Taken together, these positions generated a total loss of 21.12%, or 7.04% per asset. While this was a sizable drawdown, the broader performance of my weekly forecasts over recent weeks remains positive, as earlier gains were exceptionally strong and more than offset this setback.

    Key market data from last week:

    • U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting: No surprises, with interest rates left unchanged.
    • U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI): The standout data release of the week. Inflation came in far hotter than expected, with headline PPI rising 0.5% month-on-month and core PPI increasing 0.7%, versus forecasts of just 0.2% for both. This reinforced a more hawkish Fed outlook, lifted the U.S. dollar, and accelerated the sharp reversal in Silver (and Gold). As a result, expectations for a second U.S. rate cut in 2026 were pushed back to October.
    • Bank of Canada policy meeting: No change to interest rates, as anticipated.
    • Australian CPI: Inflation exceeded expectations, with an annual rate of 3.8% versus 3.5% forecast, strengthening the case for possible RBA rate hikes and supporting the Australian dollar early in the week.
    • Canadian GDP: Slightly weaker than expected, showing zero month-on-month growth.
    • U.S. unemployment claims: In line with forecasts.

    While PPI and Australian inflation influenced market moves, two broader developments likely had an even greater impact:

    • Federal Reserve leadership: President Trump announced his nominee for the next Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. Although regarded as a hawk, Warsh is now thought to favor lower interest rates. The nomination contributed to the collapse of the Silver rally and provided additional support to the U.S. dollar.
    • Geopolitical tensions: The U.S. continued its military buildup near Iran, raising the risk of a wider regional conflict. Polymarket currently assigns a high probability to a U.S. strike on Iran in March, despite President Trump still referencing the possibility of a diplomatic agreement. These tensions appear to be supporting crude oil prices, with WTI crude reaching a new four-month high last week.

    Meanwhile, the S&P 500 briefly pushed to a fresh record above 7,000. Although the index remains resilient, upside momentum is limited. In my view, a clearer resolution to U.S.–Iran tensions is needed before a more decisive directional move can develop.

    The Week Ahead: 2nd – 6th February

    The most significant data releases for the coming week, ranked by expected market impact, include:

    • U.S. Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls
    • Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations
    • European Central Bank main refinancing rate decision and monetary policy statement
    • Bank of England official bank rate decision, voting breakdown, and monetary policy report
    • Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decision, rate statement, and monetary policy statement
    • U.S. JOLTS job openings
    • Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment
    • U.S. ISM services PMI
    • U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI
    • U.S. unemployment rate
    • New Zealand unemployment rate
    • Canadian unemployment rate
    • U.S. weekly unemployment claims

    This will be a particularly busy and potentially market-moving week, with three major central banks delivering policy decisions. Please note that Friday is a public holiday in New Zealand, which may reduce liquidity in related markets.

    Monthly Forecast February 2025

    For the month of January 2026, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would rise in value. Unfortunately, this was a losing trade.

    For the month of February, I forecast that the EUR/USD currency pair will rise in value.

    Weekly Forecast 2nd February 2026

    Last week, three currency crosses experienced unusually high volatility, prompting the following weekly trade forecasts:

    • Short NZD/JPY, which resulted in a 0.57% loss.
    • Short AUD/JPY, ending with a 0.32% loss.
    • Short NZD/CAD, producing a 0.39% loss.

    Overall, the Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar emerged as the strongest major currencies of the week, while the U.S. dollar was the weakest. Market conditions were relatively subdued, with directional volatility dropping sharply—only 11% of major currency pairs and crosses moved by more than 1% over the week.

    Technical Analysis

    Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

    US Dollar Index

    Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index formed a notably large bullish pin bar, rejecting a fresh four-year low. On its own, this price action is bullish. However, the broader technical structure remains bearish, with the index still trading below its levels from 13 and 26 weeks ago. As a result, the technical outlook for the U.S. dollar is mixed.

    The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair provided some support to the dollar during the week. Nevertheless, the forward outlook remains uncertain, and I believe the most attractive trading opportunities in the near term are likely to be independent of U.S. dollar direction.

    EUR/USD

    The EUR/USD pair recently staged a strong long-term bullish breakout as the U.S. dollar accelerated lower and printed a new 3.5-year low. However, the move quickly failed, with price retreating sharply and finding minimal follow-through support.

    This price action suggests the breakout may have been a temporary spike, although the potential for a sustained bullish trend should not be dismissed, as EUR/USD has historically shown a tendency to trend cleanly once momentum is established.

    That said, the appointment of a new Fed Chair and the renewed strength in the U.S. dollar late in the week—driven by hotter inflation data—argue for a more cautious stance.

    Accordingly, I would only consider a long position following a daily (New York close) above 1.2039.

    WTI Crude Oil

    WTI crude oil has surged strongly in recent sessions as the risk of a regional conflict centered on Iran has intensified. Prediction markets are currently assigning a high probability to a U.S. strike on Iran in March, a scenario that could significantly disrupt global crude supply. Against this backdrop, prices pushed to a new four-month high by the end of last week, with a daily close above $66.25 marking a potential six-month high.

    However, two important cautions should be noted:

    • While a daily close above $66.25 would typically attract trend-following buying, the current moving average structure does not confirm a bullish setup. Even in the event of military conflict, the move could prove to be a short-lived spike, especially if a rapid U.S. victory follows, potentially resulting in a failed breakout.
    • Unlike recent Democratic administrations, the Trump administration is likely to take aggressive steps to suppress crude oil prices, which could cap or reverse upside momentum.

    Bitcoin

    BTC/USD has finally completed a decisive bearish breakdown below the long-term support zone just above $81,000. Price is now firmly established beneath this level and has pushed to a new nine-month low, a development that is technically significant and clearly bearish.

    While equities and precious metals have rallied strongly in recent months, Bitcoin peaked at a record high several months ago and has since trended steadily lower. This divergence highlights a broader downturn across the crypto sector, with Bitcoin now showing clear signs of structural weakness.

    Despite early expectations that Bitcoin would fundamentally reshape global finance, real-world adoption remains limited outside parts of Africa. Practical usability is still constrained, and its underlying value proposition remains uncertain.

    Although I generally avoid short-selling, Bitcoin appears entrenched in a long-term bearish trend. I would not consider buying at current levels. Short positions may be worth considering, but only with strict risk management, as shorting is best suited to experienced traders.

    XAG/USD

    Silver experienced an exceptionally volatile week, surging more than 15% to hit a new all-time high and the long-discussed $120 options target, before suffering a dramatic reversal. The sell-off unfolded sharply on Thursday and Friday—particularly Friday—when prices plunged 28% in a single session.

    I had previously cautioned that the move was highly vulnerable to a sharp correction, and that while a long position was justified, it should be taken with a reduced position size.

    The sheer magnitude of the collapse, even with some bullish undertones and modest resilience in the bounce from the weekly lows, strongly suggests that another record high is unlikely in the near term. This extraordinary rally appears to be finished, and the most probable next phase is a period of erratic consolidation, marked by large swings and gradually diminishing volatility.

    XAU/USD

    Much of the analysis above regarding Silver also applies to Gold. That said, gold’s volatility was noticeably lower, and its price action showed greater resilience at the lows.

    While gold is also likely to enter a period of sideways consolidation, the underlying structure suggests it may recover to the upside more quickly than silver.

    Bottom Line

    My preferred trade for the coming week is:

    • Long EUR/USD, contingent on a daily (New York) close above 1.2039.

    Sources: Adam Lemon

  • Single trader wiped out for $220 million amid 10% ether plunge

    A large ETH liquidation on Hyperliquid triggered a leverage-driven cascade, sending total crypto liquidations above $2.5 billion in 24 hours.

    What to know:

    • More than $2.5 billion in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, including a single $222.65 million ether position on the Hyperliquid exchange.
    • Ether led the sell-off, with over $1.15 billion in liquidations as prices dropped by as much as 17%, followed by roughly $788 million in bitcoin and nearly $200 million in Solana.
    • The liquidation wave was heavily skewed toward long positions and amplified by thin market liquidity, highlighting how leverage can fuel cascading price declines and sudden market reversals.

    One trader suffered losses exceeding $220 million on an ether position as a renewed wave of forced liquidations rippled through crypto markets, driving total liquidations over the past 24 hours to nearly $2.6 billion.

    The largest individual liquidation took place on decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid, where an ETH-USD position valued at $222.65 million was erased, according to data from CoinGlass.

    The sell-off unfolded as ether fell by as much as 17% over the past 24 hours, dragging down bitcoin and other major tokens in a thinly traded market.

    In total, 434,945 traders were liquidated during the period, with losses overwhelmingly concentrated in long positions. About $2.42 billion of the $2.58 billion in total liquidations came from bullish bets, while short positions accounted for just $163 million.

    Hyperliquid suffered the most severe impact, logging $1.09 billion in liquidations — almost entirely from long positions — representing more than 40% of total losses across exchanges. Bybit followed with $574.8 million, while Binance recorded roughly $258 million in liquidations.

    Ether absorbed the bulk of the damage, with more than $1.15 billion in ETH positions wiped out over 24 hours. Bitcoin saw about $788 million in liquidations, and nearly $200 million in Solana positions were erased, according to liquidation heatmap data.

    Liquidations happen when leveraged positions are automatically closed after prices move beyond a trader’s margin limits. These forced exits often lock in large losses and can amplify price swings by setting off cascading sell-offs during volatile periods.

    Market participants track liquidation data to assess positioning and sentiment. Heavy long liquidations can point to panic-driven bottoms, while large short liquidations may signal the start of a squeeze. Sudden spikes also highlight overcrowded trades and areas where reversals may emerge.

    When combined with open interest and funding rate data, liquidation metrics can help identify potential entry and exit points, particularly in overleveraged markets vulnerable to abrupt flushes or sharp rebounds.

    Such liquidation-driven moves have become increasingly frequent during low-liquidity conditions, where relatively modest price moves can ripple through derivatives markets and trigger outsized reactions.

    Sources: Coindesk

  • How does a weaker dollar affect gold and Bitcoin?

    Gold and Bitcoin have diverged sharply in recent months, with Yardeni Research arguing that currency movements are becoming a key driver of that split.

    In its latest report, the firm revisited the long-standing question of whether Bitcoin can be considered “digital gold,” pointing out that both assets are difficult to value since neither generates interest or dividends. However, Yardeni cautioned that Bitcoin’s purely digital form could make it “potentially vulnerable someday to hacking by quantum-computing algorithms,” whereas gold’s main drawback is the need for physical storage.

    Bitcoin’s volatility has persisted. Yardeni noted that the cryptocurrency surged to a record near $125,000 in late 2025 before retreating toward $90,000.

    Gold, by contrast, has been in a strong uptrend since it “decisively broke out” in March 2024. Prices have climbed roughly 2.5 times since then, moving above $3,000 an ounce in early 2025. The firm maintains its long-term outlook that gold could reach $10,000 by the end of the decade.

    According to Yardeni Research, recent currency shifts are widening the gap between the two assets. The firm said a weaker U.S. dollar tends to hurt Bitcoin because it lowers Bitcoin’s value in other currencies, potentially encouraging foreign investors to sell. Some of those flows, it suggested, may be rotating into gold instead.

    In addition, a softer dollar can put upward pressure on U.S. inflation, which would further support gold prices. Yardeni also noted that dollar weakness generally favors U.S. investors in overseas markets, reinforcing its overweight stance on emerging-market equities.

    Sources: Investing

  • Bitcoin slips under $80,000 as concerns over market liquidity deepen

    Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, slid 6.53% to $78,719.63 by 12:48 p.m. ET (1748 GMT) on Saturday, extending losses from the previous session.

    On Friday, bitcoin touched a low of $81,104 — its weakest level since November 21 — as the U.S. dollar strengthened following the selection of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Investors have voiced concerns that Warsh could pursue tighter liquidity conditions across the financial system.

    Warsh has argued for sweeping changes at the central bank and has advocated, among other measures, reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.

    Bitcoin and other digital assets have often benefited from an expanded Fed balance sheet, typically gaining when abundant liquidity supported risk and speculative investments.

    Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, said the Fed’s “oversized balance sheet, coupled with heavy-handed banking regulation,” had effectively trapped liquidity within Wall Street rather than allowing it to flow to the broader economy, contributing to asset bubbles in areas such as bonds, cryptocurrencies, metals and meme stocks.

    Ether also dropped sharply, falling 11.76% to $2,387.77 on Saturday afternoon. Cryptocurrencies have struggled to find clear direction since their sharp decline last year, lagging behind strong rallies in gold and equities.

    “Sometimes these price corrections can become self-reinforcing,” Jacobsen said, noting that Friday’s sudden sell-off had served as a reminder of market risk. He added that further selling in the coming days was “possible, if not likely.”

    Cryptocurrencies are struggling during what had been expected to be a period of strong inflows and supportive regulation under President Donald Trump. Bitcoin, the market leader, has shed about one-third of its value since hitting record highs last October.

    Sources: Reuters

  • Crypto Markets Sink Into Extreme Fear as Selling Pressure Intensifies Across Assets

    The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation dropped by about 5% to $2.82 trillion over the past 24 hours, briefly touching $2.78 trillion twice—its lowest level since April last year. As anticipated, weakness in commodity and equity markets added further pressure to crypto, triggering a sell-off on elevated volumes as traders tightened stop-loss orders after a prolonged period of consolidation. In our worst-case scenario, market cap could fall into the $1.8–2.0 trillion range, corresponding to a 161.8% extension of the initial downside move seen in October–November.

    The Crypto Sentiment Index dropped to 16 by Friday, marking its lowest reading in six weeks and a return to extreme fear—a zone the market managed to escape for only two days this week. While such depressed sentiment is often viewed as a buying opportunity, we continue to stress that a more prudent strategy is to wait for a clear exit from extreme fear, helping to reduce the risk of sudden and sharp downside moves.

    Bitcoin has fallen 6% over the past 24 hours, briefly dropping to $81K and revisiting the lows seen in late November. The market is now testing the resilience of a support level that previously absorbed heavy selling pressure last year. About $10K lower lies a zone where prior cycle highs from 2021–2022 and the first half of 2024 converge. If that area fails to hold, Bitcoin could slide toward the $52–60K range.

    In the near term, however, attention should remain on BTC’s price action around $80K. This level may prove difficult to break decisively and is viewed by many market participants as an attractive buying zone.

    More than 22% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now underwater. Glassnode identifies a key support level at $83,400; a break below this could open the door to a drop toward the “true average market price” near $80,700. A deeper decline risks pushing long-term holders into losses, potentially accelerating selling pressure.

    According to Wintermute Ventures, speculative excess in crypto is likely to fade this year, with digital assets evolving into the core financial and settlement layer of the internet. In this scenario, stablecoins are expected to emerge as the primary medium of exchange in the digital economy.

    Santiment reports that Ethereum balances held on exchanges have fallen for a sixth straight month, driven by strong interest in staking. Since July last year, exchange-held ETH has declined by roughly one-third to about 8.15 million tokens.

    TRM Labs estimates that illegal cryptocurrency transaction volumes hit a record $158 billion in 2025, up 145% year on year. During the same period, hackers stole $2.87 billion across nearly 150 separate attacks.

    Meanwhile, the USD1 stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, a company linked to US President Donald Trump, reached a market capitalisation of $5 billion in under a year, making it the world’s fifth-largest stablecoin.

    Sources: FxPro

  • Bitcoin Slides to $83K as Heavy Liquidations and Fed Uncertainty Weigh

    Bitcoin tumbled sharply on Friday, sliding to its lowest level in more than two months as forced liquidations swept through leveraged positions and investors assessed the potential implications of a change in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last down 6.4% at $82,620.3 as of 02:15 ET (07:15 GMT). Prices touched an intraday low of $81,201.5, coming close to breaching the April lows had the selloff extended further.

    Crypto Markets See $1.7 Billion in Liquidations

    Data from CoinGlass showed that roughly $1.68 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours amid the selloff, with about 93% of those losses coming from long positions—traders positioned for higher prices.

    Approximately 270,000 traders saw their positions forcibly closed, intensifying the decline across Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market.

    Liquidations occur when exchanges automatically shut leveraged positions that fail to meet margin requirements as prices move against traders, a dynamic that often amplifies volatility and accelerates downside moves in risk-on markets.

    Traders Watch Trump’s Pick for Fed Chair

    Friday’s selloff coincided with rising market unease over U.S. monetary policy leadership. President Donald Trump said he would announce his choice to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday morning, fueling speculation that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh could be nominated for the role. Reports indicate the White House is preparing to put Warsh forward as the next Fed chair.

    Warsh is widely viewed as favoring a tighter approach to the Fed’s balance sheet and overall policy stance, a shift that could drain liquidity that has supported risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

    Markets have responded with broader risk-off positioning, a firmer U.S. dollar, and rising yields, while crypto prices have come under renewed pressure. Central bank policy direction plays a crucial role in shaping interest rates, liquidity, and risk-asset valuations—key drivers for high-beta assets such as Bitcoin.

    Altcoins Slide as Ether and XRP Fall 7%

    Most altcoins also slumped on Friday as liquidation-driven selling rippled through the market.

    Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell more than 7% to $2,749.92, while XRP, the third-largest, also dropped 7% to $1.75.

    Elsewhere, Solana slid 6.5%, Cardano plunged 8%, and Polygon retreated by more than 5%.

    Among meme tokens, Dogecoin declined 6%, while $TRUMP fell 3.5%.

    Sources: Investing

  • Bitcoin price remains subdued near a one-month low as Fed caution and liquidation pressures weigh on sentiment.

    Bitcoin hovered near one-month lows on Monday, extending last week’s sharp losses as investors stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and amid heavy liquidations in leveraged crypto markets.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last down 0.7% at $88,081 as of 09:36 ET (14:36 GMT).

    Bitcoin has fallen more than 6% over the past week, pressured by a broader risk-off mood driven by uncertainty over global monetary policy, volatility in US Treasury yields, and sharp swings in foreign exchange markets.

    Crypto markets remain under pressure as heavy liquidations and Federal Reserve caution weigh on sentiment.

    Last week’s selloff was intensified by forced liquidations in derivatives markets, where highly leveraged positions were rapidly unwound. Market data shows more than $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated, with long Bitcoin trades making up most of the losses, amplifying the downward price move.

    Bitcoin had surged earlier this year on hopes of easier US monetary policy and steady inflows into spot ETFs, but sentiment has since turned cautious as investors reassess the interest-rate outlook and cut risk exposure amid volatility in currency and bond markets.

    Focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting ending Wednesday. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, markets will watch Chair Jerome Powell’s comments closely for signals on the timing and extent of potential rate cuts later this year.

    Investors are also watching signals on liquidity conditions and the Fed’s balance sheet, both key drivers for crypto markets.

    Adding to the uncertainty, traders are awaiting US President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of his nominee for the next Federal Reserve chair, an appointment that could shape future monetary policy, especially if the new leadership is viewed as more dovish or closely aligned with the administration’s economic agenda.

    Strategy increases its Bitcoin holdings with a $264 million purchase.

    Strategy said it bought 2,932 more Bitcoins for about $264 million between Jan. 20 and Jan. 25, paying an average price of $90,061 per coin, according to a regulatory filing released Monday.

    The purchase raises the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 712,647 tokens, valued at roughly $62.5 billion.

    Led by Michael Saylor, the firm has accumulated its Bitcoin position at an average cost of $76,037 per coin, bringing total investment to about $54.2 billion, including related expenses.

    Crypto price today: Altcoins remain weak

    Most altcoins stayed under pressure on Monday, extending losses amid cautious sentiment. Ethereum slipped 0.4% to $2,916.08, while XRP rose 1.5% to $1.91. Solana fell 1.8%, with Cardano and Polygon largely flat. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin edged up 0.3%, while $TRUMP declined 1%.

    Sources: Investing

  • Stocks and Crypto Climb, Yet S&P 500 and Bitcoin Still Face Bull Traps

    Markets managed to rebound after Tuesday’s sell-off, but the bounce—despite attracting attention—fell short of fully recouping the earlier losses. More importantly, a significant “bull trap” remains in place for the S&P 500. Technical signals for the index continue to be mixed, with momentum indicators such as stochastics failing to move back into overbought territory—a key condition needed to support a sustained rally.

    Bitcoin faces more significant challenges. Yesterday’s rise alone is far from sufficient to undo what was beginning to resemble the formation of a right-hand base. That said, this still appears to be the early stages of building a new base and could represent an attractive buying opportunity for investors willing to hold through what may be a year-long process, potentially targeting a move toward $125K. For now, technical indicators remain net bearish, and a break below $85K would invalidate any bullish outlook.

    The Nasdaq has mounted a counter-trend bounce following the breakdown, but the symmetrical triangle pattern has already resolved, meaning attention now shifts to identifying new support and resistance levels. There is still a potential bullish scenario if price action evolves into a bullish ascending triangle.

    On the other hand, the Russell 2000 shows the potential to form a bearish “evening star” pattern, though this would require a gap lower today. Setting that possibility aside, the index remains firmly in rally mode and is far from any “bull trap” conditions. Overall, technical indicators are net bullish.

    For today, bulls may want to focus on Bitcoin, while bears should monitor the Russell 2000 for signs that a bearish “evening star” pattern could emerge.

    Sources: Declan Fallon

  • Bitcoin slips to $89.5K, weekly losses loom amid weak crypto demand

    Bitcoin declined on Friday, rounding out a weak week as easing tensions between the U.S. and Greenland, along with a major purchase by Strategy, failed to revive demand for cryptocurrencies.

    Risk appetite during the Asian session was further constrained by a Bank of Japan meeting and warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump about possible military action against Iran.

    Safe-haven assets such as gold and other precious metals surged to record highs amid rising demand for physical stores of value, while Bitcoin largely underperformed compared with bullion. The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped 0.5% to $89,517.3 by 00:53 ET (05:53 GMT).

    Bitcoin on track for 5% weekly drop, ignores positive signals

    Although Bitcoin posted modest gains earlier this week after Trump softened his stance on Greenland, the world’s largest cryptocurrency quickly reversed direction, drifting back toward one-month lows.

    Bitcoin was on course for a roughly 5% weekly decline, finding little support from Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) despite the company’s disclosure of a $2.1 billion Bitcoin purchase.

    In recent months, Strategy has also become a source of concern for the market, as investors questioned the long-term sustainability of its Bitcoin treasury strategy, particularly amid Bitcoin’s continued price underperformance.

    Bitcoin and the broader crypto market were further pressured by delays to a long-anticipated crypto regulation bill, after leading U.S. exchange Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) opposed the legislation in its current form.

    Retail demand for Bitcoin remained subdued, as strong performance in technology stocks—driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence—absorbed much of the available investment capital.

    The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which tracks the difference between Bitcoin’s U.S. price on Coinbase and the global average, has shown Bitcoin trading at a near-persistent discount in the U.S. since mid-December, signaling continued weakness in retail interest within the world’s largest crypto market.

    Crypto prices today: Altcoins slide, headed for sharp weekly losses

    Broader cryptocurrency prices declined alongside Bitcoin and were on track for significantly steeper losses this week.

    Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, dropped 2.4% to $2,946.35 and was heading for an 11.2% weekly decline. XRP fell 1.5%, while BNB slipped 0.1%, with both tokens set to post weekly losses of around 6% to 8%.

    Solana and Cardano each declined 1.5% and were down roughly 10% for the week. Among memecoins, Dogecoin fell 1.3%, while $TRUMP eased 0.9%.

    Sources: Investing UK

  • Pi Network price edges higher, but selling pressure remains

    • Pi Network rebounded about 1% on Tuesday from a key support level after falling roughly 4% on Monday.
    • Data from PiScan showed more than 4 million PI tokens were withdrawn over the past 24 hours, signaling retail efforts to hedge against further downside.
    • From a technical perspective, PI remains under heavy selling pressure, with momentum turning bearish and leaving the token vulnerable to additional losses.

    Pi Network (PI) was up about 1% at press time on Tuesday, marking a modest rebound after hitting a new record low of $0.1502 on Monday. Over the past 24 hours, mainnet holders have withdrawn more than 4 million PI tokens from centralized exchanges that support Pi Network. Despite the slight recovery, the technical outlook for PI remains bearish, with momentum indicators pointing to sustained selling pressure.

    Retail buying limits further downside

    PiScan data shows that centralized exchange reserves fell by 4.24 million PI tokens over the past 24 hours, signaling substantial withdrawals. This points to strong buying interest, which helped cap losses and secure a daily close above $0.1900. A continued decline in exchange reserves could ease supply pressure and raise the chances of a rebound in PI.

    Technical outlook: Is PI at risk of further downside?

    Pi Network was holding above the $0.1900 level at the time of writing on Tuesday, roughly 30% above Monday’s low of $0.1502. The rebound coincided with sizable exchange withdrawals and helped prevent a breakdown below the $0.1919 support level.

    However, the downward-sloping 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) continue to point to a prevailing downtrend.

    Momentum indicators on the daily chart remain decisively bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned lower from the zero line, crossing below the signal line with an expanding negative histogram. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 30, hovering around oversold territory and reflecting the recent selloff.

    A daily close below $0.1919 could deepen the bearish trend, exposing downside targets at the S1 and S2 Pivot Points of $0.1835 and $0.1632, respectively.

    PI/USDT daily price chart.

    Any rebound in PI is likely to encounter resistance at the falling 20-day and 50-day EMAs, currently at $0.2045 and $0.2116, respectively.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Bitcoin trades sideways while Dash leads gains in a subdued crypto market

    Volatility across major CoinDesk indices stayed low, with bitcoin maintaining its position above the key $94,500 breakout level despite limited price movement. Dash (DASH) led the market, climbing 15% on the day and pushing its weekly gain to 141% as most other altcoins cooled. Meanwhile, altcoins showed relative strength against major cryptocurrencies, with the CoinDesk 80 Index ticking higher as traders waited for new catalysts from U.S. markets and global political developments.

    Crypto market volatility slowed sharply on Friday, with all major CoinDesk indexes moving less than 1% since midnight UTC. The subdued action comes as Bitcoin continues to trade above the key $94,500 level, which it broke earlier this week after months of range-bound movement.

    Zcash, APT, and Polygon (POL) each recorded slight losses, while Dash—a privacy-focused payments token—continued its strong start to the year, climbing 15% and extending its weekly gain to 141%. The market is now looking for its next catalyst as political unrest in Iran and Venezuela revives crypto’s “safe-haven” narrative, highlighted by the divergence between digital assets and U.S. equities, which underperformed BTC and ETH this week.

    Derivatives market positioning

    Exchanges have unwound nearly $240 million in leveraged crypto futures positions. Total futures open interest across the market has eased to $143 billion from $146 billion, signaling a cooling in demand for leveraged trading.

    Bitcoin’s volatility slump persists. Volmex’s 30-day implied volatility now reflects an average daily move of about 2.5% over the next month. Ethereum’s 30-day implied volatility has also fallen, reaching its lowest level since early 2024.

    ZEC saw futures open interest drop 14% in 24 hours, contributing to capital outflows across most major tokens, including bitcoin, ether, solana, and XRP. In contrast, Monero stood out with an 8% increase in open interest.

    ZEC’s annualized funding rates plunged to -50%, indicating strong demand for bearish, short positions. This also suggests that downside bets may be becoming crowded, a setup that can often precede a potential short squeeze.

    In the options market, block trades showed a large short position in bitcoin’s $112,000 call expiring on February 6. This may have been paired with a long spot position as part of a covered call strategy to generate additional yield. For Ethereum, block flows leaned toward the iron condor strategy, which is typically used to benefit from a range-bound price environment.

    Crypto token overview

    DASH once again took the lead on Friday, climbing over 15% since midnight UTC, even as most of the altcoin market stayed subdued following an earlier rally at the start of the week. This could be a constructive signal for the broader altcoin space, as DASH had also been the first mover during Asian trading on Tuesday, hours before the wider market broke higher.

    XTZ also displayed strength, advancing 8.3% from a morning low of $0.57 to $0.62. The CoinDesk 80 Index (CD80), which tracks a broader range of altcoins, is up 0.68% since midnight, while the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) is largely flat—suggesting relative outperformance among altcoins as major tokens move sideways.

    Traders are now watching the U.S. market open to see whether traditional markets might inject volatility ahead of the weekend, a period that is typically marked by lighter volume and liquidity.

    Sources: Investing

  • Top 3 Crypto Price Forecast: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple — Bulls Push BTC Toward $100K, ETH to $3,500, and XRP Hits $2.35

    On Wednesday, Bitcoin is trading above $95,000, having recently broken through a crucial resistance level. Ethereum continues its upward momentum, currently trading above $3,300 after gaining nearly 7% this week. Meanwhile, XRP has bounced back, holding support near its 50-day EMA at $2.17, indicating the potential for further gains.

    On Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) continued trading higher, following gains of over 4%, 7%, and 5% respectively the previous day. BTC closed above a critical resistance level, while ETH and XRP held firm support at key price points. These top three cryptocurrencies by market cap appear poised to extend their rallies, with targets set at $100,000 for BTC, $3,500 for ETH, and $2.35 for XRP.

    Bitcoin Breaks and Closes Above Key Resistance at $94,253

    Bitcoin found support near the former upper consolidation zone around $90,000 on January 8 and showed a modest recovery through Monday. On Tuesday, BTC surged over 4%, closing above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level—measured from the April low of $74,508 to the October all-time high of $126,199—at $94,253. As of Wednesday, Bitcoin is trading near $95,300.

    If Bitcoin maintains its upward momentum, it could push further toward the important psychological milestone of $100,000.

    The daily chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 66, above the neutral midpoint of 50 and trending higher, signaling strengthening bullish momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a sustained bullish crossover, with increasing green histogram bars above the neutral line, reinforcing the optimistic outlook.

    BTC/USDT daily chart 

    Conversely, if Bitcoin undergoes a pullback, it may drop further toward the critical support level at $94,253.

    Ethereum Bounces Back Following 50-Day EMA Test

    Ethereum found support near its 50-day EMA at $3,139 last week and remained around that level through Monday. On Tuesday, ETH surged over 7%, closing above $3,325. As of Wednesday, it’s trading near $3,200.

    If the upward momentum persists, Ethereum could push toward the December 10 high of $3,447. Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum’s RSI and MACD indicators show bullish signals, reinforcing a positive outlook.

    ETH/USDT daily chart

    However, should Ethereum experience a pullback, it may drop further toward the 50-day EMA support at $3,139.

    XRP bulls aiming for the $2.35 mark

    XRP found support near its 50-day EMA at $2.07 last week and remained around that level through Monday. On Tuesday, XRP climbed over 5%. As of Wednesday, it is trading close to $2.16.

    If the rally continues, XRP could push higher toward the daily resistance at $2.35. Similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP’s momentum indicators, including RSI and MACD, display bullish signals, reinforcing a positive outlook.

    XRP/USDT daily chart

    On the other hand, if XRP faces a pullback, it could extend the decline toward the 50-day EMA at $2.07.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Bitwise dismisses 401(k) Bitcoin concerns as ‘ridiculous’ amid Warren’s SEC scrutiny

    Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, criticized the notion that Bitcoin is unsuitable for investment and 401(k) plans due to its volatility, pointing out that certain stocks can experience even greater price fluctuations.

    Hougan’s remarks came on the same day that U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to clarify how it plans to manage the risks associated with including cryptocurrencies in retirement funds.

    In August of last year, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the Labor Department to reconsider restrictions on alternative assets in defined-contribution plans, potentially allowing cryptocurrencies to be included in 401(k) retirement accounts.

    In a Monday interview with Investopedia Express Live, Matt Hougan criticized previous efforts by management firms like Vanguard and regulatory advice discouraging Bitcoin’s inclusion in 401(k)s as “ridiculous.”

    “This is simply another asset class. Yes, it experiences price fluctuations and carries risk. However, over the past year, Bitcoin has been less volatile than Nvidia stock, yet there are no restrictions preventing 401(k) providers from offering Nvidia stock,” Hougan stated.

    In 2025, Nvidia’s stock experienced a dramatic 120% price swing, dropping to around $94.31 in April before surging past $207 by October. During the same period, Bitcoin fluctuated between $76,000 and $126,080, a 65% swing. The inclusion of crypto assets in 401(k) retirement plans remains a key goal for crypto companies seeking wider retail adoption and increased legitimacy within the financial system.

    Warren demands SEC answers on crypto in 401(k)

    Meanwhile, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren is pressing the SEC for clarity on how it plans to manage risks associated with 401(k) plans investing in “alternative investments” like cryptocurrencies.

    In an open letter released Monday, Warren expressed concerns that including crypto in retirement accounts may not benefit participants due to higher fees and expenses typically associated with these assets, alongside crypto’s inherent volatility.

    “For most Americans, their 401(k) is a crucial source of retirement security, not a venue for risky financial speculation. Introducing crypto into these accounts could expose workers and families to significant losses,” she warned.

    Warren has called on SEC Chair Paul Atkins to confirm by January 27 whether the regulator considers volatility when valuing crypto holdings of publicly traded companies.

    She also seeks information on whether the SEC has evaluated manipulative practices in crypto markets and if it plans to publish research and educational materials to improve investor awareness.

    Cryptocurrency Inclusion in 401(k) Plans Will Become Standard Over Time

    Beyond President Trump’s executive order, in May the Department of Labor’s Employee Benefits Security Administration took a neutral position on cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans. They neither endorsed nor opposed it, having withdrawn a 2022 compliance guidance that previously discouraged crypto investments in retirement accounts.

    Hougan noted that while it’s uncertain whether 401(k) providers will begin investing in crypto during 2026, he expects it to happen eventually and become normalized.

    “These institutions move slowly, but the trend is clear. Over time, crypto will be treated like any other asset — which is exactly how it should be,” he added.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Bitcoin climbs 1% while Nasdaq futures and the dollar fall amid escalating tensions between Trump and Powell

    Bitcoin’s price trend moved differently as Nasdaq futures dropped by nearly 0.8%.

    Bitcoin increased by 1% amid growing tensions between President Trump and Fed Chairman Powell, which rattled markets and led to declines in U.S. stock futures and the dollar. Powell described the legal challenge as politically driven, intended to pressure the central bank into aggressive interest rate cuts. However, prediction markets do not anticipate this conflict resulting in Powell leaving his position prematurely.

    Bitcoin climbed 1% Monday afternoon Hong Kong time as escalating tensions between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell unsettled investors, pushing both U.S. stock futures and the dollar index down.

    Bitcoin reached $92,000 but remained within last week’s range of $89,000 to $95,000, according to CoinDesk data. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures declined 0.8%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.5%, and the dollar index eased to 99.00 from Friday’s high of 99.26.

    Typically, BTC tends to follow the Nasdaq’s movements, but this time it diverged, suggesting growing safe haven demand for the cryptocurrency as investors seek a “hideout” amid the intensifying Trump-Powell conflict. Supporters of BTC have long praised it as an anti-establishment asset and a safeguard against reckless fiscal and monetary policies. Meanwhile, gold, a classic safe haven, also climbed to a record high of $4,600 per ounce.

    Tensions between the Federal Reserve and the White House intensified over the weekend after Powell revealed that the Trump administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment related to the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters.

    Powell dismissed the indictment as politically motivated, aimed at pressuring the Fed into cutting interest rates.

    Trump has long been critical of Federal Reserve policies, especially its hesitance to aggressively lower rates to stimulate economic growth. Since taking office in 2025, he has frequently pushed Fed Chair Jerome Powell to reduce rates more sharply, labeling him a “numbskull” and threatening to make changes to increase White House influence over monetary policy.

    Trump has consistently called for interest rates to fall to 1% or below. Although the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points last month to 3.5%, it is expected to hold steady at least until March and is unlikely to return to ultra-low levels anytime soon.

    Despite the escalating attacks from Trump’s team, prediction markets do not anticipate an early departure for Powell, whose term ends in May this year.

    However, persistent assaults on central banks, especially amid ongoing inflation, can undermine investor confidence and destabilize the domestic currency.

    The sharp decline of Turkey’s lira in recent years, triggered by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s interference with central bank independence, stands as a cautionary example. Still, the dollar’s position as the global reserve currency makes a severe collapse in the U.S. less likely.

    Sources: Coindesk

  • Looking Back at the First 25 Years of the 21st Century

    Reflecting on the start of this century, the first striking observation is our national shortsightedness. After surviving Y2K and the dot-com crash in 2000, our leaders assumed the path ahead would be smooth sailing from year one onward.

    However, reality proved otherwise, beginning with a series of black swan events, notably the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon on September 11. While such events are inherently unpredictable, it’s remarkable that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) economists confidently forecasted in 2001 a future of continuous budget surpluses, anticipating the complete elimination of national debt by 2011.

    For reasons unknown, the CBO issues 10-year federal spending and revenue projections, despite having no solid factual or practical foundation to accurately forecast beyond a year or two—akin to trying to predict the weather a year in advance.

    The January 2001 CBO report highlights this myopia. Their projections simply extended current trends indefinitely without grounding in reality. Under this unrealistic mandate, the CBO projected a cumulative surplus of $5.6 trillion for 2002–2011.

    In reality, deficits over that decade totaled $6.1 trillion—a swing of $11.7 trillion. It would have been much simpler to just flip a plus sign to a minus. The projections failed to account for the soaring costs of Bush’s “War on Terror” post-9/11, which led to prolonged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the bursting of the real estate bubble, and massive TARP bailouts to rescue large banks.

    In short, this is a summary of CBO’s flawed foresight:

    The first takeaway from this bleak forecast is that the CBO economists assumed deficits would increase in a smooth, predictable fashion—almost as if they were drawing a straight line with minor fluctuations, rather than reflecting the unpredictable realities of economic growth.

    A second point is that the 2003 Bush tax cuts were not the main driver of the deficits. In fact, annual deficits dropped significantly—from $413 billion in fiscal year 2004 (which began October 1, 2003) to just $161 billion in fiscal year 2007. This means the deficit shrank by more than half during the four years following the tax cuts and before the 2007 real estate crash.

    While much of this now feels like distant history, the ongoing wars and the Federal Reserve’s drastic response to the 2008 financial crisis—keeping interest rates near zero for eight years, essentially through the entire Obama administration—contributed to massive deficits that have persisted through to today, especially in the five years following the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Since 2001, U.S. federal deficits have averaged about $1 billion annually, but that figure has surged to over $2 trillion per year since 2020, according to the U.S. Treasury.

    Today, the total federal deficit stands at $38 trillion, which amounts to roughly $110,000 owed per American—far from the anticipated surpluses once projected.

    Following a Challenging 2000–2009, Markets Surged in the First Quarter

    What about the markets? After nearly a “lost decade” lasting nine years from March 2000 to March 2009, all major market indexes have experienced remarkable growth—particularly gold relative to the U.S. dollar.

    By March 9, 2009, three of the four major indexes—the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000—had fallen by 50% since the decade began (while the Dow was down 40%), but they bounced back strongly from 2009 through 2025:

    Over the same 25-year period, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 83%, which means the real market gains were somewhat diminished.

    The U.S. dollar performed even worse, losing about 10% in value overall (and 8% against the euro), while gold and silver surged more than 15 times in value:

    The first-quarter returns were decent, but the strong performance of gold and silver signals that the dollar—and the CBO’s deficit forecasts—cannot be relied on in the long run. In fact, President Trump has set a goal for 2026 to deliberately weaken the dollar against the Chinese yuan to “help” exporters boost overseas sales. Much of the talk about the dominance of the “King Dollar” is just rhetoric. In reality, many politicians aim to devalue their currencies to encourage trade, turning paper money into a “race to the bottom,” while gold quietly holds its value, watching from the sidelines.

    This brings us to the 2025 summary—a major victory for precious metals as the dollar dropped by 10%.

    2025 Brought Massive Gains for Precious Metals

    The year 2025 exemplified the key trends seen over the past 25 years—while the stock market continued to climb, gold and silver surged even faster. Although inflation is easing, gold today serves less as an inflation hedge and more as a safeguard against crises, a hedge against the dollar, and increasingly, a hedge against cryptocurrency volatility.

    In 2025, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by 10%, allowing major global currencies to gain between 5% and 15%. Meanwhile, the poorest-performing investments of 2025 brought good news for consumers through lower food and energy prices:

    So, if 2026 mirrors the gains of 2025, it will surely be a rewarding year for most investors.

    Sources: Investing

  • Biggest Crypto Decliners: Pump.fun, Story, and Pudgy Penguins Approach Critical Support Zones

    • Pump.fun slid 11% on Wednesday from its 50-day EMA and now risks breaking below the 20-day EMA
    • Story has fallen more than 6% in the past 24 hours and is closing in on the $2 psychological floor
    • Pudgy Penguins is retesting the 50-day EMA as buying strength weakens following Wednesday’s 9% pullback

    Pump.fun (PUMP), Story (IP), and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) have come under strong selling pressure in the past 24 hours. PUMP and IP were unable to break above their 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), triggering Wednesday’s retreat, while PENGU currently sits on its 50-day EMA. Overall, technical indicators continue to point to a bearish setup given the ongoing downward trend.

    Weakening Bullish Momentum Puts Pump.fun at Risk of Further Downside

    Pump.fun trades above the 20-day EMA at $0.002248 at press time on Thursday, following an 11% drop from the 50-day EMA at $0.002624 on the previous day, breaking the eight-day streak of uptrend. 

    If the meme-coin launchpad token slips below $0.0002248, losses could deepen toward the $0.002000 psychological level, with further downside targeting the S1 Pivot at $0.001262.

    Daily-chart indicators show fading buyer strength: the RSI has eased to 51 and is drifting toward the midpoint, while the MACD has flattened, with shrinking green histograms pointing to weakening bullish momentum.

    PUMP/USDT daily price chart.

    If PUMP rallies back above the 50-day EMA at $0.002624, the next upside target would be the R1 Pivot Point at $0.002983.

    Story hits the crucial crossroads at $2.00

    Story trades around $2.00 at the time of writing on Thursday, marking its third consecutive bearish day. The meme coin is down 2%, extending the 4% decline from the previous day and risking the 20-day EMA at $1.91.

    If IP falls below $1.91, it could further decline to the S1 Pivot Point at $1.22.

    Similar to PUMP, the technical indicators on the daily chart point to declining buying pressure in Story. The RSI is at 53, slipping closer to the halfway line while the MACD approaches the signal line risking a crossover which would indicate renewed bearish momentum. 

    PENGU/USDT daily price chart.

    To reinstate an upward trend, IP should exceed the 50-day EMA at $2.33, potentially targeting the R1 Pivot Point at $2.41.

    Pudgy Penguins Faces a Potential Breakdown Below the 50-Day EMA

    Pudgy Penguins is currently trading above the 50-day EMA at $0.01179 after Wednesday’s 9% pullback. At press time, PENGU is hovering near $0.01200, just below the R1 Pivot Point at $0.01193.

    A drop beneath this zone could push the token toward immediate support at the 20-day EMA of $0.01091, near the key $0.01000 psychological level.

    Like PUMP and IP, PENGU’s daily chart signals weakening demand, with technical indicators pointing to fading buying strength.

    PENGU/USDT daily price chart.

    On the upside, a recovery in PENGU could push the price toward the R1 Pivot Point at $0.01518.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin remains stable above $90K as new investments flow back into the crypto market

    Bitcoin prices are supported by new-year fund allocations, while leverage decreases and volatility expectations increase.

    Key points to know:

    • Bitcoin stays steady above $90,000, indicating consolidation instead of increased selling pressure.
    • Ethereum demonstrates strength with solid weekly and monthly gains, even as futures positions cool down.
    • Gold is projected to hit new highs in 2026, driven by declining interest rates, central bank purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties.

    Good morning, Asia! Here’s what’s moving the markets today:

    Crypto markets kick off the year in a phase of adjustment rather than decline, with Bitcoin holding steady above $90,000 and Ether showing renewed strength as institutions reset their positions.

    As Hong Kong opened its Wednesday trading session, Bitcoin dipped slightly in the short term but stayed within a range after surpassing the key $90,000 mark.

    “With stocks, gold, and other precious metals at record highs, we view the situation as a tug-of-war between prices correcting upward to align with these assets and potentially declining over the coming months to follow the 4-year cycle,” said George Mandres, crypto analyst at trading firm XBTO, in a note to CoinDesk. He added that the latter scenario “can quickly become a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

    So far, neither upward nor downward pressure has taken control of Bitcoin’s price. Rather than a steep correction, Bitcoin has traded sideways, indicating a phase of digestion rather than distribution. Mandres highlighted the calendar effect as a key factor distinguishing the current situation from late 2025.

    “What’s changed now compared to a few weeks ago, aside from Bitcoin surpassing $90K, is that a new year has begun, resetting P&Ls to zero, and investors are looking to allocate capital to attractive risk/reward opportunities,” he explained.

    Ethereum presents a slightly different picture. Although ETH has outperformed Bitcoin over weekly and monthly periods, futures data show that positioning has cooled.

    Bradley Park, founder of DNTV Research, noted that CME Ethereum futures open interest provides valuable insight beyond spot price movements.

    “Increasing open interest has largely reflected institutional activity through DAT-style ETF arbitrage trades, while declining open interest signals unwinding positions,” Park said in a note to CoinDesk.

    That unwinding now seems well underway.

    “The recent pullback looks less like a structural shift and more like a loss of momentum, with positioning resetting to roughly July 2025 levels,” Park added.

    Crucially, this reset has not triggered a sharp spot market sell-off.

    A recent Glassnode report echoes this theme across assets. Options markets have de-risked significantly, with contracting open interest and rising volatility expectations. Meanwhile, U.S. spot ETF flows have returned to net inflows, indicating renewed institutional demand but also greater sensitivity to near-term profit-taking.

    Overall, these signals suggest consolidation and rotation rather than a widespread risk-off selloff. Bitcoin is balancing conflicting macro factors without losing its trend, while Ethereum appears less crowded and better positioned to benefit if institutional flows pick up again.

    Market Movement

    BTC: Bitcoin is consolidating above $90,000, trading sideways after a recent rise. The price action reflects balance between macro support and caution from the market cycle, rather than fresh selling pressure.

    ETH: Ether is hovering around $3,247, showing slight declines on short-term charts but maintaining strong gains over weekly and monthly periods, demonstrating resilience despite a recent pullback in futures positioning.

    Gold: Following a nearly 65% rally in 2025, gold is expected to reach new highs in 2026, driven by falling interest rates, ongoing central bank purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties.

    Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.45% on Wednesday as Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed results. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.38% after inflation data came in below expectations.

  • Meme Coin Price Forecast: Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe surge amid Venezuela’s hidden Bitcoin reserve

    • Dogecoin rose another 2% following a 4% rebound on Sunday, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains.
    • Shiba Inu paused after surging nearly 12% on Sunday, having broken out of a falling channel formation.
    • Pepe is approaching its 200-day EMA, with bulls eyeing a breakout after a 77% rally over the past four days.

    Meme coins including Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE) are leading the broader crypto market rally, fueled by the U.S. cross-border operation to detain Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Dogecoin has extended its advance for a fifth straight session, while SHIB and PEPE are taking a brief pause. Despite this consolidation, the technical outlook for the major meme coins remains bullish.

    Venezuela’s hidden Bitcoin reserve fuels crypto market rally

    Venezuela is reportedly shifting from the petrodollar to cryptocurrencies like Tether’s USDT stablecoin to settle crude oil sales, with an estimated value between $10 billion and $15 billion. It’s believed that Maduro converted USDT into Bitcoin (BTC) to prevent his wallet from being frozen.

    Along with a $2 billion gold-for-Bitcoin swap conducted between 2018 and 2020 and the seizure of BTC mining assets, Venezuela’s shadow reserve is estimated to hold around 600,000 BTC.

    If the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve seizes or absorbs Venezuela’s BTC holdings, it would effectively reduce Bitcoin’s available supply, potentially triggering a surge in demand. The current market recovery appears to reflect anticipation of this possible supply constraint.

    Dogecoin Gains Bullish Momentum Above $0.15

    Dogecoin rose 2% on Monday, building on Sunday’s 4% gain. The dog-themed meme coin has surpassed its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.14339 and is trading above the key $0.15 level.

    This recovery follows a breakout rally from a descending wedge pattern on the daily logarithmic chart. The next target for Dogecoin is the 200-day EMA at $0.18202, which aligns with a resistance zone between $0.18100 and $0.18500.

    Momentum indicators show strong buying pressure: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65, leaving room before overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to climb with green histogram bars, signaling growing bullish momentum.

    If DOGE slips below the key support near $0.14399, it could negate the recent breakout and expose the meme coin to further downside pressure, potentially testing the next psychological floor around $0.13 or lower. Technical breakdowns below critical support often increase the risk of deeper corrections, as previous analyses have shown DOGE facing renewed bearish momentum if it fails to hold near support levels.

    Shiba Inu Pauses After Four-Day Rally, Holding Above 50-Day EMA

    Shiba Inu surged nearly 12% on Sunday, breaking above the resistance trendline formed by the October 13 and November 11 highs. As of Monday, SHIB has pulled back slightly, down over 1%.

    If the recovery continues, Shiba Inu could target the 200-day EMA at $0.00001065.

    Similar to Dogecoin, daily momentum indicators show strong bullish momentum for SHIB. The RSI stands at 65, approaching the overbought zone, while the MACD has crossed above the zero line with increasing green histogram bars, signaling growing upward momentum.

    On the downside, if SHIB falls below the 50-day EMA at $0.00000821, it would invalidate the recent breakout, potentially exposing the coin to a drop toward the October 10 low of $0.00000678.

    Pepe Eyes Breakout Above 200-Day EMA

    Pepe slipped nearly 2% on Monday after soaring almost 18% on Sunday, pausing its four-day rally that has surged over 77%. This pullback reflects resistance near the 200-day EMA at $0.00000749.

    If PEPE breaks above this level, the rally could extend toward the September 25 low at $0.00000886.

    The RSI stands at 79, indicating overbought conditions and potentially unsustainable buying pressure. However, the rising MACD suggests continued bullish momentum.

    On the downside, a potential reversal in PEPE may test the former resistance, now support zone, around $0.00000650.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • The Great Crypto Reset: Why Institutional Integration Will Define 2026

    The entire crypto market, tracking over 18,000 tokens across centralized and decentralized exchanges, is currently valued at nearly $3 trillion. This represents a 31% decline from the all-time high of $4.37 trillion recorded in early October, just before the recent crypto market crash.

    Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is hovering around $88,000, accounting for more than half of the total market value at $1.77 trillion. Despite its dominant position, Bitcoin is poised to end the year with a negative annual return.

    Since 2012, this marks the fourth year Bitcoin has underperformed, albeit by a significantly smaller margin compared to previous down years. For context, Bitcoin’s annual losses were -50.2% in 2014, -72.1% in 2018, and -62% in 2022. If Bitcoin maintains its current price level near $88,000, its annual underperformance in 2025 would be the “best of the worst” at around -6%.

    Compared to Bitcoin, traditional asset classes like stocks and gold/silver have delivered substantially better returns this year on average. This contrast raises important questions about crypto’s position and outlook heading into 2026.

    Is the Crypto Market Mature Enough for Significant Exposure?

    The core purpose of the blockchain ecosystem is to transform the traditional money system through trustless finance. In simple terms, it leverages advances in cryptography combined with a full software stack to make transacting value as seamless as sending a message on an app.

    While online banking and payment processors like PayPal have long provided similar convenience, the blockchain ecosystem offers a fundamental overhaul. Instead of relying on a single intermediary that acts as a bottleneck, automated smart contracts on an immutable ledger—the blockchain—execute all value transfers autonomously.

    This decentralized approach eliminates single points of failure, increases transparency, and enhances security, paving the way for a new era of financial innovation.

    This newly reinvented financial system—decentralized finance (DeFi)—has shown tremendous promise. Its total value locked (TVL) skyrocketed from $600 million in 2020 to $176 billion by late 2021, marking an astonishing growth of over 29,000%. Such rapid expansion is a clear indicator of a nascent industry emerging.

    However, following the FTX collapse in late 2022 and a wave of bankruptcies among overleveraged crypto ventures, DeFi’s TVL has stabilized around $50 billion for the past two years. It was only after President Trump’s second term and the removal of the previously antagonistic SEC Chair Gary Gensler that DeFi began to recover, reaching approximately $168 billion TVL in early October.

    Looking at this entire period from 2020 to now, several key conclusions emerge:

    • Without active institutional and legislative support, blockchain finance risks remaining confined to the enthusiast fringe. Like many cultural phenomena, mass adoption tends to be top-down driven, as exemplified by Elon Musk’s influence on Dogecoin’s surge.
    • One major hurdle to crypto’s wider adoption is the inflation of new tokens, which fuels recurring boom-and-bust cycles. This token oversupply undermines investor attention, market legitimacy, and overall capital efficiency.
    • The current ecosystem—where tokens are staked to earn more tokens in a closed-loop, casino-like economy—must give way to real utility derived from external value rather than internal dilution.
    • Moreover, Web3 crypto usage remains far from user-friendly and secure, with frequent incidents like bridge hacks and wallet incompatibility. According to Chainalysis, over $3.4 billion in crypto funds were stolen in 2025 alone. Ideally, blockchain finance should be so seamless that users are unaware they’re interacting with decentralized technology.
    • Notably, the market rally following the removal of SEC Chair Gary Gensler signals that blockchain’s underlying value hinges on how well it integrates with the broader, compliance-driven economy. As such, 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for crypto’s maturity and mainstream acceptance.

    Bitcoin and Stablecoin-Based Institutional Integration: The 2026 Catalyst

    While DeFi protocols sought to establish dominance, new intermediaries such as foundations, early adopters, venture capitalists, and miners quickly asserted control. Despite the promise of decentralization, the ease of creating new tokens generated persistent dilution pressure across the crypto ecosystem.

    Bitcoin, however, avoided this recursive dilution trap by imposing a physical energy barrier through its proof-of-work algorithm. This barrier limits token creation ex-nihilo, allowing Bitcoin’s network effect to remain robust. Following the October market crash, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty held steady, even increasing before stabilizing at pre-crash levels as the price hovered around $88,000 towards year-end.

    Amid rising inflation fears, geopolitical tensions, and trade conflicts, gold and silver have regained their status as trusted hedges. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s deterministic scarcity and digital-native nature position it uniquely for the modern economy, contrasting with gold’s pseudoscarcity.

    Although many financial institutions underestimated Bitcoin’s 2025 price — with forecasts from Standard Chartered ($200k), VanEck ($180k), JPMorgan ($165k), Bernstein ($200k), and Fundstrat ($250k) — these projections may be delayed signals for 2026. As of early December, JPMorgan analysts suggested Bitcoin could reach $170k in 2026, assuming it begins to trade similarly to gold.

    Moreover, recent research from K33 indicates that selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH) is nearing exhaustion. If this holds true, Bitcoin is poised to lead a renewed altcoin market rally in 2026, but with some notable distinctions:

    • The full implementation of the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation will channel the majority of European crypto trading volume into regulated entities, while simultaneously triggering a flight of activity to less restrictive jurisdictions.
    • Meanwhile, tokenized stocks are poised for wider adoption as the US clears key regulatory hurdles. Notably, SEC Chair Paul Atkins issued a no-action letter to the Depository Trust Company (DTC) to facilitate the rollout of tokenized securities. However, offerings from platforms like Robinhood, Kraken, and Dinari remain heavily geo-restricted.
    • As the EU seeks to curb USD-based stablecoin flows—evidenced by Kraken’s fiat-only tokenized stock trading—the US stands to gain renewed competitive advantage.
    • Institutional oversight in the US is becoming increasingly crypto-friendly, likely aiming to solidify USD dominance via stablecoins. For example, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is revising its rules on banks’ exposure to cryptocurrencies. Together with more accommodating regulators such as the FDIC and OCC, it is now highly likely that US banks will hold cryptocurrencies in 2026.
    • Following the passage of the GENIUS Act, stablecoin flows are expected to significantly boost the broader crypto market. On one side, Circle’s upcoming Arc blockchain—backed by Blackrock, Visa, and Amazon—will support institutional stablecoin settlements. On the other, stablecoins are rapidly becoming the primary consumer-facing crypto product.
    • While MiCA’s vague definition of “decentralization on a spectrum” may hinder true DeFi innovation, it nonetheless accelerates capital formation around compliant crypto primitives.

    The Bottom Line

    Since 2020, the crypto ecosystem has created transformative wealth but also faced setbacks due to excessive experimentation. The strict regulatory stance under SEC Chair Gary Gensler cooled early enthusiasm, turning much of crypto activity into speculative trading rather than real financial innovation.

    Following President Trump’s SEC repeal of SAB 121, crypto entered a new phase of integration under traditional finance (TradFi) rules. Despite macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, crypto moves into 2026 on its most stable footing yet.

    Unlike prior cycles dominated by retail sentiment, institutional investors — pension funds, insurers, and endowments — are expected to reduce volatility through spot ETFs and altcoin trusts on high-performance chains like Solana and Sui.

    The rise of Real World Assets (RWA) will foster a unified liquidity layer, linking tokenized stocks, RWAs, and TradFi blockchain networks with DeFi protocols. In this emerging hybrid finance, stablecoins will be the backbone, enabling DeFi’s transformation into a regulated, compliant capital market.

    Sources: The Tokenist

  • Bitcoin holds at $93.6K as Strategy reports Q4 loss

    Bitcoin traded steadily on Tuesday, as a pickup in risk appetite lent support to the world’s largest cryptocurrency early in 2026, though renewed concerns surrounding treasury-focused firms limited further upside.

    On Monday, Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, reported a significantly larger unrealized loss on its digital assets for the fourth quarter, reflecting the decline in the value of its holdings throughout 2025.

    The broader crypto market also edged higher alongside Bitcoin, but gains generally lagged those seen in other risk-oriented sectors, particularly technology stocks.

    Market sentiment improved as investors looked past the initial shock of a U.S. military action in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Attention has now turned to Washington’s next steps for the region.

    Bitcoin rose 1.3% to $93,576.7 at 00:59 ET (05:59 GMT), though it remained down more than 6% for 2025.

    Saylor’s Strategy reports $17.44B unrealized loss in Q4

    Michael Saylor’s Strategy announced on Monday night that it recorded a substantial $17.44 billion in unrealized losses for the fourth quarter of 2025, largely due to a decline in the value of Bitcoin, its largest asset.

    A directly comparable figure for the fourth quarter of 2024 was unavailable, although the company had reported a net loss of $670.8 million in Q4 2024. Last year, Strategy adopted new accounting rules requiring it to mark its Bitcoin holdings to fair value in its earnings—a change that has led to significant swings in quarterly results.

    The company’s shares, which function as a Bitcoin proxy, fell nearly 50% in 2025 as investors grew increasingly skeptical about the long-term viability of its crypto accumulation strategy. A prolonged downturn in Bitcoin prices, along with Strategy’s exclusion from a major U.S. stock index, further weighed on market sentiment.

    The steep decline in Strategy’s share price has also raised concerns that the firm could be forced to liquidate part of its Bitcoin holdings to meet future debt and shareholder commitments—an outcome that could trigger substantial selling pressure on Bitcoin itself.

    Altcoins climb as XRP leads gains

    The broader crypto market traded mostly in positive territory in line with Bitcoin, with XRP outperforming the rest.

    XRP jumped 12% amid stronger capital inflows into spot exchange-traded funds, while supplies of the token were also seen shrinking on major exchanges.

    The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, gained 2% to $3,220.24, while BNB advanced 0.6%.

    Solana and Cardano rose by 2.5% and 5.5%, respectively.

    In the memecoin space, Dogecoin added 0.4%, while $TRUMP climbed 2.6%.

    Sources: Investing