Gold mining stocks could outperform physical gold when prices reach major buying zones.

In the currency markets, Tuesdays have historically tended to favor government-issued fiat currencies over gold — though not consistently — and today happens to be Tuesday.

Fiat currencies may experience periods of strength — even lasting for years — but in the long run, they have consistently underperformed gold.

The weekly chart of gold versus fiat currencies continues to display a flag-like consolidation pattern, one that still appears to favor the bullish side.

The projected breakout target from this formation is estimated to be in the $8,000–$9,000 range.

Analysts across the gold market are debating both the origin of the flag pattern and the catalyst that could ignite the next major rally. The prevailing narrative from mainstream media and bank analysts has been that escalating US military involvement in Iran has pushed oil prices higher, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates. Because gold yields no interest while fiat currencies do, this dynamic has temporarily supported fiat over gold.

Some observers also argue that further downside pressure has come from the central banks of Iran and Russia, which may be selling gold reserves to offset declining fiat revenues and the financial strain caused by ongoing conflict.

Meanwhile, the Indian government has introduced additional taxes on bullion bank imports, encouraged citizens to reduce gold purchases, and is reportedly considering another increase in import duties.

Although the Federal Reserve has implemented some quantitative easing this year, the scale has been relatively limited.

It is worth noting that during 2010–2011, the Fed’s balance sheet expanded only modestly, yet gold prices surged sharply. In contrast, throughout 2024–2025, the Fed’s balance sheet actually contracted, but gold still dramatically outperformed fiat currencies. Why?

Commercial “QE” in the form of bank lending continues at an aggressive pace and far exceeds government-led quantitative easing. The expansion of private credit and money supply remains one of the key forces driving fiat currencies into a long-term decline against gold.

In the end, gold is an exceptionally complex form of money influenced by many different factors. Asian import duties, seasonal festivals, geopolitical conflicts, interest rates, and bank credit growth all play a role in determining gold’s fiat price.

A strong argument can be made that gold is not consistently predictable. Many analysts spend enormous effort trying to forecast movements that, in reality, may be inherently difficult — if not impossible — to predict accurately.

That uncertainty itself is one of the main reasons why millions of experienced gold investors across Asia and the West concentrate less on short-term forecasting and more on accumulating what they view as the “ultimate form of money” whenever prices weaken.

Maintaining focus on the broader macro picture is increasingly important as investors navigate persistent inflation, tariffs, the 2021–2025 geopolitical conflict cycle, elevated stock market valuations, debt ceiling concerns, and the ongoing shift in global economic power.

Although gold’s short-term direction is often unpredictable, key buying and selling zones can still be identified for both investors and traders. No one can know with certainty whether gold will reach a particular level, but if those zones are tested, market participants in the precious metals space are expected to accumulate aggressively. Historically, such phases have often led to dramatic outperformance by gold mining stocks relative to bullion itself.

I’m frequently asked, “When will mining stocks outperform gold?” My response is simple: “Whenever they enter a major buy zone. That’s where the strongest outperformance begins.”

Expecting long-term dominance from high-flying Nasdaq growth stocks over the Dow isn’t always realistic. However, when those stocks are purchased during pullbacks that bring the broader market into major support areas, they can generate remarkable gains within just a month or two — returns that the overall market might otherwise take years to produce.

The same principle applies to precious metals miners, often to an even greater degree. As a general rule, gold, silver, and copper mining stocks can deliver unleveraged fiat gains of 20% or more within one to two months after being bought at the right zones.

This year, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF has already experienced two strong periods of outperformance relative to gold bullion, and a third wave — potentially underway now — could produce even larger gains for gold-stock traders and investors.

Silver mining stock investors have also enjoyed exceptional gains this year, with the two major buy zones delivering rallies of 20% or more.

The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure and robotics is transforming copper into what some investors now call the “new oil.” The old slogan, “Drill, Baby, Drill!” may eventually evolve into, “Drill, Bonehead, Drill” — unless the drilling is for copper.

For copper stock investors, the key buy zones closely mirror those seen in gold and silver mining shares. The gold $4,400 support zone and the Dow 45,000 support zone were highlighted as attractive accumulation areas for miners before prices moved into those levels.

Historically, mining-stock ETFs and individual mining companies tend to stabilize around major support zones in both gold and the Dow. From those areas, they have often launched into powerful rallies.

The bottom line is straightforward: gold remains, in the eyes of many investors, the world’s premier form of money, while gold, silver, and copper mining stocks can become exceptional vehicles for outperformance — provided they are accumulated with patience, discipline, and careful timing.