The conflict involving Iran has disrupted many asset classes—except for Bitcoin. In recent weeks, the leading cryptocurrency has shown notable resilience, with far less volatility than other risk-sensitive assets like U.S. equities. While some argue that Bitcoin is becoming less sensitive to geopolitical events, other factors are also at play.
Last week, Bitcoin climbed to a two-month high above $78,000 and has largely maintained those gains, continuing its upward momentum.
Historically, Bitcoin hasn’t been insulated from geopolitical shocks. Its price has tended to drop during sharp escalations—such as the Iranian strikes on Israel in April 2024—and it still behaves like a risk asset, often moving in tandem with equities during periods of extreme market fear. Yet this pattern hasn’t played out in the current Middle East conflict.
That said, the US–Iran war began after Bitcoin had already undergone a steep correction of more than 50% from its all-time high prior to February 28.
This recent resilience could indicate that Bitcoin is in the process of forming a bottom, particularly if it continues to defend key support levels. Beyond the idea that the market had already priced in significant downside, Bitcoin’s stability during wartime may point to stronger underlying demand and a more robust market structure, driven by several supporting factors.
Institutional investors and corporations are increasing their exposure.
Institutional investors have poured more than $3 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs from March to now, following a relatively modest $206 million outflow in February. This suggests that even after the conflict began at the end of February, net inflows stayed positive—helping support Bitcoin’s resilience as investors stick to a long-term outlook and continue building exposure.
On the corporate side, treasury heavyweight Strategy has maintained its aggressive accumulation strategy despite the geopolitical backdrop and an unrealized Q1 loss of $14.46 billion on its Bitcoin holdings. With its latest purchase, Strategy’s total holdings—now exceeding 815,000 BTC—have even surpassed those of major institutional player BlackRock.
Liquidity injection
Broader liquidity conditions have also been a key driver behind Bitcoin’s resilience, given that BTC remains highly sensitive to global liquidity cycles. Over the past six months, global M2 money supply has been on the rise. Historically, Bitcoin tends to follow this trend with a lag, as expanding liquidity often finds its way into risk assets. This backdrop of increasing global money supply helps explain—and support—Bitcoin’s recent strength.
Additionally, according to Barchart, the United States Department of the Treasury is expected to repurchase $15 billion of its own debt this week—marking the largest Treasury buyback on record. This broader backdrop of expanding liquidity, fueled by both Treasury buybacks and rising global M2, has created supportive conditions that help Bitcoin absorb war-related uncertainty more effectively than in earlier, less liquid market cycles.
Wall Street’s crypto presence keeps growing
Rising interest from major Wall Street banks is another factor underpinning Bitcoin’s resilience. Morgan Stanley launched its Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) on the New York Stock Exchange in early April, marking the first spot Bitcoin ETF introduced by a major U.S. bank. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has also entered the ETF race.
This expanding presence of traditional financial institutions in the crypto space strengthens the narrative that Bitcoin is gradually evolving from a purely speculative instrument into a more established asset class.
Iran considers using Bitcoin for toll payments
The Middle East conflict may also be enhancing Bitcoin’s real-world utility. Iran has reportedly proposed that shipping companies pay transit tolls in cryptocurrency for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Under the plan, tanker operators would need to submit cargo details in advance for approval by Iranian authorities. Approved vessels would then pay a transit fee of roughly $1 per barrel, with payments accepted in Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies, or the Chinese yuan. Empty vessels would be exempt.
Given Iran’s reliance on crypto to bypass U.S. sanctions, Bitcoin has already been used for import payments and trade settlement. This latest proposal signals a potentially expanding role for crypto in global commerce. If implemented, it could mark a meaningful step in adoption—especially in financially constrained regions—and may provide a near-term boost to demand, particularly as around 20% of global oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Technical Analysis: Is BTC bottoming out?
Bitcoin’s technical structure is starting to show constructive signals. The leading cryptocurrency gained 4.33% last week, reaching an 11-week high near $78,333, and has extended those gains by more than 5% this week. Price is այժմ approaching the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $78,490, measured from the August 2024 low (~$49,000) to the October 2025 all-time high (~$126,199).
A weekly close above this $78,490 resistance would be significant, opening the door for a move toward the 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $82,568. Breaking and holding above that level would establish a higher high on the weekly chart—a strong signal that the broader trend may be turning bullish again.
Momentum indicators are also improving. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 46 on the weekly timeframe and is trending upward toward the neutral 50 level after rebounding from oversold conditions—suggesting that bearish pressure is fading. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has just printed a bullish crossover, with a positive histogram reinforcing the case for continued upside.
Taken together, these signals point to a market that may be in the early stages of forming a bottom—though confirmation will depend on whether key resistance levels are decisively broken.
Bitcoin still behaves primarily as a risk asset, and its role as an “inflation hedge” or “digital gold” remains premature—at least until the market matures further. Rather than acting as a clear safe haven during geopolitical turmoil, its recent resilience likely reflects a convergence of factors: capital inflows, improving liquidity conditions, and growing adoption, alongside the aftermath of a deep correction and deleveraging phase.
While headlines will continue to influence Bitcoin—as they do all asset classes—the market, for now, appears to be driven more by liquidity dynamics than by geopolitical shocks.
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