Gold
The gold market initially pulled back during the week but later rebounded and regained strength. The $4,600 level remains a key area to watch closely, as it has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in the past.
Gold still appears to have solid potential to gradually move higher, although interest rate markets continue to create headwinds. In this environment, gold is likely to remain volatile and range-bound in the short term. Despite that, the longer-term outlook still looks strongly bullish, and I believe the market could eventually reach the $5,000 level. However, that would likely require several supportive factors to align, including a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
USD/CHF
The US dollar initially strengthened against the Swiss franc but has since pulled back quite sharply. The pair is now testing a potential support zone around the 0.7750 level. Among the major currency pairs, this is one where I still favor the US dollar over the longer term. However, falling interest rates and growing concerns that geopolitical conflicts could escalate are boosting demand for safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc.
Ironically, if geopolitical tensions ease and peace returns, interest rates in the United States may decline, but demand for the safe-haven Swiss franc would likely weaken as well. As a result, this pair is expected to remain heavily influenced by headlines and market sentiment. Over the longer term, however, I still believe USD/CHF has room to move higher.
EUR/USD
The euro initially moved lower before rebounding and showing renewed strength. However, the pair continues to face strong resistance around the 1.18 level, extending up to 1.1850. The 1.1850 zone has remained a significant area of selling pressure, keeping the market contained since the summer of last year.
Going forward, we will need to see whether EUR/USD can finally break above this resistance zone, especially since the pair has attempted to do so several times already. Each breakout attempt, however, has been met with heavy selling pressure that quickly pushes the market back down. For now, I suspect the broader trading range will continue to hold.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin moved higher during the week but later surrendered part of its gains. Even though the latest candlestick resembles a shooting star, it is important to note that the previous candle formed a hammer pattern. This combination suggests that Bitcoin could enter a period of sideways consolidation in the near term.
A break above the $84,000 level would be a strong bullish signal and could pave the way for a much larger upward move. In the meantime, I believe short-term pullbacks will likely continue to attract buyers, with many traders viewing dips as potential buying opportunities.
USD/ZAR
If you were searching for volatility, the South African rand certainly delivered during the week. The pair initially attempted to move higher, but later turned lower as the US dollar continued to weaken. That remains the key theme in this market — traders are likely to keep selling into short-term rallies, especially as the interest rate differential continues to favor South Africa and is expected to do so for the foreseeable future.
With that in mind, I believe the market will likely drift back toward the 16.20 level over time, although the move is expected to be gradual rather than aggressive. In the end, this remains more of a carry trade environment, where traders are primarily focused on earning positive swap returns.
NASDAQ 100
The Nasdaq 100 continues to defy gravity and now appears extremely overbought. The index remains locked in a remarkably strong uptrend, but sooner or later, a sizable pullback is likely to occur — one that could catch overly aggressive or greedy traders off guard.
That said, I believe the 28,000 level will be a key area to watch, as many traders are likely to look for signs of support and renewed buying interest if the market pulls back toward that zone.
USD/MXN
The US dollar has remained weak against the Mexican peso for quite some time. The 17.50 level continues to act as a significant resistance barrier, as it has repeatedly attracted strong selling pressure in the past. Overall, the pair still appears to be trapped within a broader trading range, with support near 17.20 and resistance around 17.50.
Ultimately, I believe that if USD/MXN can break above the highs of the last two weekly candlesticks, it could open the door for a move toward the 18.00 level. However, such a rally would likely require a broader risk-off or fear-driven market environment. For now, the overall setup still appears to favor a “sell the rally” approach rather than a sustained bullish trend.
USD/JPY
The US dollar traded in a highly volatile manner against the Japanese yen throughout the week, following last week’s intervention by the Bank of Japan.
That said, the pair is beginning to form a candlestick pattern that suggests stabilization, indicating there is a genuine possibility of another move higher. A breakout above the 160.50 level — or potentially even the 162.00 region — could pave the way for fresh multi-decade highs, with resistance levels stretching back to 1990.
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