Bitcoin slipped to $64,195.94, down 1.40% on the day, after failing to break above $65,500 for the second time in just over a week. Its market capitalization stood at $1.29 trillion, supported by a circulating supply of 20 million BTC, while 24-hour trading volume reached $32.35 billion. Although Bitcoin remains up 2.2% over the past week, repeated rejections near the same resistance level suggest buying momentum is fading.
The rally gained traction on Wednesday when Bitcoin climbed above $65,000, reaching a three-week high of $65,529.09 after opening at $65,009.12. The cryptocurrency posted a 3.5% daily gain, with weekly performance improving to 4.03%, as trading volume totaled $23.73 billion. During the week, prices fluctuated between $62,194.46 and $64,805.30, peaking at $65,471.67.
However, the advance quickly lost steam on Thursday. Bitcoin retreated toward $64,000, falling 1.1% from the start of the UTC trading day, while Ether declined 1.7%. The pullback reflected another round of profit-taking near resistance, compounded by renewed geopolitical tensions after Iran launched attacks on U.S. military bases in Gulf states as U.S. airstrikes continued.
Current market dynamics suggest Bitcoin’s strength is being driven more by leveraged positioning than by genuine spot demand. ETF inflows, largely concentrated in a single fund, continue to influence price action, but inconsistent inflow patterns have made rallies toward $65,000 difficult to sustain. Analysts argue that Bitcoin’s estimated average holder cost basis near $53,700 remains a more meaningful reference point than bullish options positioning targeting $72,000, which has yet to receive support from underlying market flows.
Bitcoin has endured a challenging year, falling 26.1% since the start of 2026 after beginning the year above $93,000. It has declined 45.5% over the past twelve months and now trades 54.3% below its all-time high of $126,080, recorded on October 6, 2025. Among major asset classes, Bitcoin has been one of the weakest performers this year, trailing U.S. Treasuries, silver, and the Swiss franc.
Elsewhere in the crypto market, Ether traded at $1,883.01, down 2.18%, XRP eased 0.92% to $1.11, and Solana fell 2.55% to $76.20. The broader digital asset market continues to move largely in response to the same macro and liquidity-driven factors influencing Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s 54.3% Decline Has Lasted 268 Days, Suggesting the Correction May Not Be Over
Bitcoin has now spent 268 days in a drawdown, falling 54.3% from its record high. Those figures alone challenge the view that the market has already established a definitive bottom.
History offers an important perspective. The previous two major Bitcoin bear markets lasted 363 and 376 days, with peak-to-trough losses of 84.3% and 77.6%, respectively. Compared with those cycles, the current downturn has covered only about three-quarters of the historical duration and remains significantly shallower than even the mildest of the last two declines. That suggests the correction could still be unfolding rather than reaching its conclusion.
The familiar four-year Bitcoin cycle has once again become a focus for market participants. While the current decline has not mirrored the bear markets of 2014, 2018, or 2022 exactly, its timing and overall structure share notable similarities. If Bitcoin were to experience a 70% decline from its $126,080 peak—consistent with the trend of progressively less severe bear markets—the price would fall into the $38,000–$39,000 range by early October, roughly four years after the previous cycle low. However, this represents one possible scenario rather than the most likely outcome.
There is also an important argument against an overly bearish outlook. Bitcoin recorded its lowest realized volatility on record in 2025, and historically, periods of reduced volatility have often been followed by less severe drawdowns. As a result, applying a simple 70% decline based on past cycles may overstate the downside under today’s different market conditions.
Price action throughout the year highlights the key technical levels. Bitcoin dropped from above $80,000 in late January to around $60,000 in February before staging a rebound. It finished June near $60,000 after posting a fresh 21-month low during the final week of the month. On July 1, BTC briefly touched $57,800, marking a maximum drawdown of roughly 54%, before recovering to $64,195.94.
One technical development has received relatively little attention. In late June, Bitcoin recorded its first weekly close below the 200-week moving average since 2023 after remaining under the $60,000 level for an entire week. Historically, BTC has only traded beneath this long-term trend indicator during the most severe phases of previous bear markets. Although the subsequent recovery above $60,000 is encouraging, the earlier breakdown remains a significant technical event that continues to shape the broader market outlook.
IBIT Continues to Dominate Bitcoin ETF Flows
On July 15, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $107.7 million in net inflows, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for $80.8 million, or roughly three-quarters of the total. Fidelity’s FBTC contributed $16.9 million, while Grayscale’s lower-fee BTC ETF added $10 million. All remaining Bitcoin ETF products—including BITB, ARKB, BTCO, EZBC, BRRR, HODL, BTCW, MSBT, and GBTC—recorded no meaningful net activity.
The pattern has become increasingly consistent. On July 14, Bitcoin ETFs collectively attracted $181.1 million, with IBIT contributing $138.9 million and FBTC adding $21 million. No Bitcoin ETF experienced net outflows that day, lifting total Bitcoin ETF assets back to approximately $78 billion, while US spot Ether ETFs surpassed $10 billion in assets under management.
Earlier in the month, the concentration was equally apparent. On July 6, Bitcoin ETFs received $265.69 million, of which $209.4 million flowed into IBIT. The following day, overall inflows slowed sharply to $21.09 million, yet IBIT still attracted $54.45 million, implying competing funds collectively experienced net redemptions. Over the July 6–10 period, IBIT accumulated $291.9 million, exceeding the sector’s total net inflow of $197.4 million as outflows from other funds offset much of BlackRock’s gains. During the same week, GBTC lost $108.2 million, FBTC shed $93.4 million, and ARKB recorded $15.3 million in redemptions.
IBIT’s influence is just as significant during periods of outflows. Between June 22 and June 26, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced roughly $1.79 billion in net withdrawals, with IBIT accounting for around 73% of those redemptions. Given that the Bitcoin ETF market now manages roughly $78.5 billion in assets and holds more than 1.21 million BTC, flows into and out of IBIT increasingly shape the direction of the broader ETF market.
The impact extends beyond investor sentiment. When ETF shares are redeemed, authorized participants return those shares to the issuer, prompting custodians to sell Bitcoin in the spot market to meet cash withdrawals. Industry research cited throughout 2026 suggests ETF-related transactions now explain nearly 45% of weekly Bitcoin price movements, making fund flows a major driver of market action rather than simply a reflection of investor confidence.
As a result, Bitcoin’s near-term performance increasingly depends on a single question: how are BlackRock’s ETF investors positioning themselves?
Recovery in ETF Flows Remains Small Relative to Earlier Outflows
Although Bitcoin and Ether ETFs recently ended a prolonged redemption streak, the recovery remains modest compared with the scale of previous withdrawals.
Across eight consecutive weeks, US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs recorded approximately $9.46 billion in cumulative outflows, surpassing the previous record of five straight weeks of redemptions. Selling intensified through June amid broader risk-off sentiment across financial markets.
June alone generated approximately $4.51 billion in ETF withdrawals, bringing estimated net outflows for 2026 to around $5.8 billion by mid-July. May contributed another $2.30 billion, while a single trading session on June 25 saw roughly $700 million leave the sector. By the beginning of July, year-to-date net outflows had already reached $5.4 billion.
Against that backdrop, the rebound has been relatively limited. During the week of July 6–10, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $197.4 million, while Ether ETFs added $84.42 million, producing combined inflows of $281.8 million—the first positive weekly reading for both asset classes since early May.
Even so, the recovery represents only about 3% of the previous $9.46 billion withdrawn, highlighting how little of the earlier selling has been reversed.
Relative to assets under management, Ether also showed stronger momentum than Bitcoin. With approximately $9.59 billion in ETF assets, Ether’s weekly inflows equaled about 0.88% of total AUM—more than three times Bitcoin’s relative inflow intensity. Despite this stronger rebound, Ether ETFs have still experienced roughly $1.2 billion in cumulative outflows since early May.
The daily flow pattern during that positive week also reflected fragile demand. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $265.69 million in inflows on Monday, followed by just $21.44 million on Tuesday. Redemptions then returned on Wednesday (-$84.86 million) and Thursday (-$95.30 million) before Friday’s $90.44 million inflow preserved a positive weekly total. Two of the five trading sessions still ended in net outflows, underscoring that the recovery relied heavily on a handful of strong inflow days.
Before that reversal, Bitcoin ETFs had endured a 10-session outflow streak that drained approximately $2.73 billion. The streak ended on July 2 with a $221.72 million inflow led by Fidelity. Those sustained redemptions translated into billions of dollars in systematic Bitcoin selling through ETF redemption mechanisms, creating persistent market pressure regardless of broader investor views on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.
July’s ETF Flows Highlight a Market Driven by Short-Term Swings
Bitcoin ETF activity throughout July has been characterized by sharp reversals rather than a sustained trend, with trading between July 13 and July 15 providing a clear example of the market’s recent volatility.
On July 13, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $425 million net outflow, marking the largest single-day redemption during the current period. IBIT’s net asset value declined 2.89%, with BlackRock’s redemption equating to roughly 2,990 BTC, worth approximately $185.5 million. Fidelity also experienced substantial withdrawals totaling around $245.6 million. Meanwhile, US spot Ether ETFs posted $15.41 million in net redemptions.
The following day, sentiment shifted sharply. On July 14, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $181.1 million in net inflows, led by IBIT’s $138.9 million contribution. No Bitcoin ETF reported net outflows during the session, while Bitcoin ETF prices climbed nearly 4% and Ether ETFs gained about 6%, representing their strongest daily performance in several weeks.
Momentum continued on July 15, with Bitcoin ETFs adding another $107.7 million, including $80.8 million flowing into IBIT.
Taken together, the market experienced a $425 million withdrawal followed by $288.8 million in combined inflows over the next two sessions. Throughout July, ETF flows have frequently alternated between inflows and outflows every few trading days, with neither buying nor selling pressure maintaining control for an extended period. The largest redemption of the month and one of its strongest inflow sessions occurred just 24 hours apart, highlighting the lack of a sustained directional trend.
This pattern is significant because of its influence on Bitcoin’s price discovery. If ETF flows now account for an estimated 45% of weekly Bitcoin price movements, frequent reversals in those flows can introduce considerable short-term volatility. That leaves the remaining portion of market activity—including spot trading and derivatives positioning—to absorb rapid shifts in buying and selling pressure.
One area has shown greater consistency. While spot Bitcoin ETF flows have fluctuated, leveraged Bitcoin strategy ETFs have attracted steadier inflows over the past seven weeks. That demand has helped support Strategy (MSTR) shares and prevented the stock from trading below its net asset value. At the same time, Bitcoin futures markets have continued to record positive flows, a trend often associated with stronger institutional participation.
The contrast between stable demand for leveraged products and inconsistent flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs suggests that investors using leverage have displayed greater conviction than buyers of the underlying asset. Such a divergence is unusual and may indicate that speculative positioning is currently stronger than demand in the spot market.
Leverage Continues to Drive Bitcoin as Futures Activity Outpaces Spot Buying
Bitcoin’s futures open interest has climbed to $48.90 billion, increasing 3.52%—or roughly $1.66 billion—over the past two days. The data suggests that recent price gains have been fueled primarily by leveraged positions rather than genuine spot-market demand.
The contrast between derivatives and spot flows is striking. During the period in which Bitcoin rallied from $62,194.46 to $65,529.09, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $288.8 million in net inflows. Over the same timeframe, futures open interest expanded by $1.66 billion, nearly six times larger than ETF demand. This indicates that the rally was driven largely by traders increasing leveraged exposure instead of investors purchasing Bitcoin outright.
Although the increase in open interest has been described as orderly rather than excessively speculative, the size of the derivatives market remains significant. With nearly $49 billion in outstanding futures positions, relatively modest price swings can still trigger substantial forced liquidations. For comparison, the largest liquidation event over the past month totaled $363.41 million on June 25.
Recent price action, however, has not been characterized by widespread liquidations. Bitcoin’s pullback from $65,529.09 to $64,195.94 occurred without meaningful forced selling from either long or short positions, suggesting the decline reflected genuine spot-market selling rather than a cascade of leveraged liquidations.
While this orderly behavior reduces immediate systemic stress, it also implies that speculative positioning remains largely intact. Unlike liquidation-driven declines, which often reset positioning and establish stronger support levels, gradual spot-led selling leaves leveraged exposure largely untouched, creating the potential for continued volatility.
This dynamic reflects a broader imbalance in market participation. Long-term value investors may still be waiting for deeper discounts following Bitcoin’s 54.3% decline from its peak, while momentum investors appear reluctant to return until ETF inflows strengthen and broader catalysts emerge. With both groups remaining cautious, leveraged traders have become the primary force influencing short-term price action.
Funding Rates Suggest Limited Speculative Excess Despite Recent Rally
Perpetual futures funding rates remain positive at approximately 0.0043% every four hours, equivalent to an annualized rate of about 9.35%. Throughout Bitcoin’s advance toward $65,529.09, funding stayed positive but relatively moderate, averaging around 0.0060% every four hours.
Positive funding means traders holding long positions pay those holding shorts. However, current funding levels remain well below the elevated readings typically associated with overheated markets, indicating that leveraged bullish positioning has not yet reached extreme levels.
Liquidation data supports that interpretation. During the latest 24-hour period, total liquidations reached $37.32 million, with short positions accounting for $31.66 million, or roughly 85% of the total. Similar figures from another observation period showed shorts representing more than 82% of all liquidations.
This suggests that Bitcoin’s move from roughly $62,200 toward $65,500 was driven largely by a moderate short squeeze rather than sustained spot buying. Yet the scale of the squeeze was relatively small. The $31.66 million in liquidated short positions represents only around 0.06% of the nearly $49 billion in total futures open interest, implying that only a small portion of bearish positioning was forced out.
Compared with previous market extremes, the recent activity appears relatively subdued. During a major derivatives event in late February, perpetual funding briefly turned sharply negative while more than $500 million in crypto positions were liquidated within a single day, primarily long positions. Current conditions remain far from that level of market stress.
As a result, Bitcoin’s inability to break decisively above $65,500 is understandable. Funding rates remain moderate, short positioning has not been fully exhausted, and bearish traders retain room to re-enter the market without facing prohibitively expensive funding costs.
The combination of neutral funding, stable open interest, and only modest short-covering has produced a rally that lacked sustained follow-through, leaving Bitcoin unable to overcome a key technical resistance level.
Technical Indicators Show Improving Short-Term Momentum but Weak Long-Term Structure
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues to trade below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently located in the $65,100–$65,700 range. The recent high at $65,529.09 tested this resistance zone before reversing lower, reinforcing the importance of the 50-day EMA as a key trend indicator.
Momentum indicators paint a mixed picture. Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings remain around 48–49, suggesting momentum has improved from oversold conditions but has yet to establish a clearly bullish trend. On the weekly timeframe, RSI remains below the critical 50 level, indicating that the broader market trend has not yet shifted in favor of buyers.
Meanwhile, the MACD shows bearish momentum gradually weakening, although it has yet to generate a confirmed bullish reversal signal.
Short-term price action remains relatively constructive. Bitcoin has maintained higher lows after its advance toward $65,500, with chart patterns resembling a pennant or symmetrical triangle that typically reflects consolidation rather than an immediate reversal. On the weekly chart, however, these higher lows continue to develop within a broader descending channel, a structure commonly associated with bear-market rallies.
The key technical levels remain well defined. A sustained move above $65,000 would strengthen the case for additional upside in the near term, while a decline below $64,500 could return Bitcoin to a broader consolidation range. Initial support lies near the 20-day moving average around $62,500, with $63,800 serving as another important support area after previously acting as resistance. On the upside, reclaiming the 50-day EMA would represent the first meaningful improvement in trend strength, opening the possibility of testing resistance between $66,600 and $67,600.
The broader technical picture remains less encouraging. In late June, Bitcoin recorded its first weekly close below the 200-week moving average since 2023—a level that has historically only been broken during the deepest phases of previous bear markets. Although the current price has recovered above that long-term average, a single rebound is insufficient to restore the long-term bullish structure. Sustained trading above the 200-week moving average over multiple weeks would be required to confirm a more durable trend reversal.
Taken together, both market flows and technical indicators point to the same conclusion: Bitcoin’s recent strength is primarily a short-term development occurring within a longer-term structure that has yet to fully recover.
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