AUD/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 0.7150, stays trapped within a two-week trading range.

• AUD/USD bulls stay cautious during Friday’s Asian session as mixed fundamental signals keep traders on the sidelines.
• Reports of a potential US-Iran peace agreement weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar, providing modest support to the pair.
• However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance help limit USD downside, while fading hopes for additional rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia restrain gains for the Aussie.

The AUD/USD pair struggles to build on Thursday’s solid rebound from below the 0.7100 mark, a one-week low, and trades sideways during Friday’s Asian session. Even so, the pair remains above 0.7150 and is on track to post its first weekly gain in three weeks.

News that the US and Iran have drafted an agreement to prolong the current ceasefire by 60 days has weakened demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), providing some support to the AUD/USD pair. However, investors remain cautious about the prospects of a lasting peace deal due to ongoing disputes surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, stronger US inflation data for April — the sharpest rise in three years — reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates again before year-end, lending support to the USD. In addition, fading expectations of a June rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continue to limit upside momentum for the Aussie.

From a technical standpoint, the pair is still trading within the same range that has held for roughly the past two weeks. The upper boundary of this range aligns with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, as well as the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-May rally, suggesting that bullish momentum remains somewhat restrained.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 56, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly positive, indicating that bearish pressure is not yet dominant. Still, a decisive move above the key resistance zone around 0.7180–0.7185 would be required to confirm that the recent pullback from the multi-year peak has ended and that further gains are likely.

A sustained breakout above this barrier could pave the way toward the 0.7279 swing high. On the downside, immediate support is seen near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7109, followed by the 50% retracement around 0.7056. Further declines could expose 0.7003 and 0.6928, ahead of the broader support base near 0.6833.

AUD/USD H4 Chart