Gold stays range-bound as Iran tensions support prices but mixed Fed signals cap gains.

Gold trades in a tight range during the Asian session, struggling to extend the prior day’s gains. It holds above $4,600 but is still set for a second consecutive weekly loss. A steadier US Dollar, supported by geopolitical tensions from stalled US–Iran talks, along with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, continues to limit upside momentum.

Gold Technical Analysis

A push above $4,600 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) triggered some intraday short covering. However, the rally lost momentum before reaching $4,650, close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from April’s peak. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58.33, indicating solid but not overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative. Overall, momentum signals suggest that bullish pressure is present but still lacks strong conviction, even as prices stay above key short-term levels.

Given this setup, it may be wise to wait for a decisive break above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $4,651.19 before expecting further upside from this week’s rebound off the $4,500 area, which marked a one-month low. If buyers gain traction, the next resistance could appear near the 50% retracement level at $4,696.20. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 100-hour SMA around $4,623.78. A drop below this level could open the door toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,595.49, with a deeper move potentially revisiting the broader swing low near $4,505.46 if selling pressure intensifies.

Fundamental Analysis

US President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease the blockade while delaying nuclear negotiations. He stated that the US will maintain a naval blockade until Iran agrees to terms addressing concerns over its nuclear program, with reports also تشير to possible new US military strikes. These developments heighten fears of escalating tensions, supporting the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal and weighing on Gold prices.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, with an unusually high level of dissent among policymakers. Recent US data showing rising inflation and continued economic strength reinforces expectations that rates could remain elevated into next year, further boosting the Dollar and pressuring Gold.

Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the PCE Price Index rose 0.7% month-on-month in March, with annual inflation accelerating to 3.5%. Core PCE also increased to 3.2% year-on-year. Additionally, the US economy grew at a 2.0% annualized pace in Q1 2026, a notable improvement from the previous quarter.

However, expectations for at least one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026 have risen modestly, limiting bullish momentum in the Dollar and helping Gold avoid deeper losses. Market attention now turns to upcoming US data, particularly the ISM Manufacturing PMI, along with ongoing developments in the Middle East, both of which are likely to drive near-term price action.