Last Updated on 31/08/2026
Gold held near $4,600 per ounce on Friday, putting the precious metal on track to finish the week with little overall change. Investors are now focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, looking for clues about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest-rate decisions.
Current market pricing suggests roughly a 65% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in September. However, stronger-than-anticipated US inflation has increased expectations for another rate increase before the end of the year, with the implied probability of a hike by December still above 70%.
Gold is also receiving support from the so-called debasement trade, as investors seek assets that can preserve value amid currency depreciation and growing government debt. The US Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback program has raised additional concerns about the sustainability of US debt, while also placing renewed pressure on the dollar.
The geopolitical environment remains uncertain as well. Oil prices are staying elevated amid renewed tensions involving Russia, even as there are indications of diplomatic progress in the Middle East.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, gold is consolidating around the $4,605 level. The technical setup points to a possible decline toward $4,511 in the near term, followed by a potential recovery toward $4,605 before another downward move toward $4,420.
The MACD indicator supports this bearish scenario. Its signal line remains above the zero line but is moving lower, suggesting that short-term downward momentum is still present.
On the H1 chart, XAU/USD recently completed a decline toward $4,564, followed by a corrective rebound to around $4,600. The market is now developing a broader consolidation pattern above the $4,564 support area.
A break below this range could trigger another move toward $4,511, with the potential for an extension toward $4,500.
The Stochastic oscillator also favors the downside, with its signal line below the 20 level and continuing to move lower. This indicates that short-term selling pressure remains dominant.
Conclusion
Gold remains relatively stable ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, with investors looking for clearer signals about the direction of US monetary policy. Although markets currently expect interest rates to remain unchanged in September, persistent inflation has kept the possibility of a year-end rate hike above 70%.
At the same time, concerns surrounding currency depreciation, rising US debt, and debt sustainability continue to provide underlying support for gold. Geopolitical developments involving Russia and the Middle East are adding another layer of uncertainty to the broader market.
From a technical perspective, gold could face near-term downside toward $4,511 and potentially $4,500. The H4 setup suggests that a temporary rebound toward $4,605 could follow before another decline toward $4,420.
The market’s next major direction will likely depend on Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments and upcoming US economic data, which could provide important clues about the Fed’s policy path and gold’s next significant move.
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