Last Updated on 01/09/2026
EUR/USD edged higher to around 1.1620 during Tuesday’s early Asian session, maintaining its position above the key 1.1600 level as markets await the release of the Eurozone’s preliminary August HICP inflation figures.
The Euro remains supported despite a firmer US Dollar, with traders closely watching the upcoming inflation data for clues about the European Central Bank’s next policy moves.
In Germany, consumer inflation accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in August, up from 2.8% in July and marking the third straight monthly increase. However, monthly CPI growth slowed to 0.2%, below the 0.3% market forecast.
The ECB has already raised borrowing costs once, and markets are increasingly pricing in another rate hike at its September 10 meeting. Investors are also anticipating further monetary tightening into next year if inflation remains persistent.
Meanwhile, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve could limit EUR/USD’s upside. Traders have increased expectations for a September Fed rate hike after Kevin Warsh indicated that policymakers may need to take further action if they lack confidence that underlying inflation is moving back toward the 2% target.
Warsh Provides Clearer Guidance on Fed Policy
Scotiabank strategists noted that Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks helped clarify his policy stance following the uncertainty surrounding his comments after the July FOMC meeting. His latest comments provided markets with a clearer signal ahead of the September policy decision.
For EUR/USD, the focus now shifts to the Eurozone HICP inflation report, which could provide fresh direction for the pair and influence expectations for both ECB and Fed policy.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD
On the daily chart, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1622, maintaining a mildly bullish structure. The pair has moved above the 20-period Bollinger Band midpoint at 1.1600 and the 100-day SMA near 1.1570, reinforcing the positive setup following its rebound from the mid-1.15 area.
Momentum also remains supportive, with the 14-day RSI near 57, indicating continued buying interest while still staying comfortably below overbought territory.
On the upside, the upper Bollinger Band around 1.1713 represents the next key resistance zone, where the pair could encounter some profit-taking. On the downside, 1.1600 serves as the first support level, followed by the 100-day SMA near 1.1570. A break below these levels could open the way toward the lower Bollinger Band around 1.1488, which represents a stronger potential demand zone.
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