Last Updated on 03/09/2026
- WTI crude prices hover near their highest level since July 24 as Middle East tensions heighten supply concerns.
- US crude inventories decline by 4.45 million barrels, significantly surpassing expectations.
- WTI remains above key moving averages, while resistance between $90 and $92 limits near-term upside.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil experienced choppy trading on Wednesday as rising tensions in the Middle East kept volatility high and supported a stronger geopolitical risk premium. WTI was trading near $89.70 per barrel after climbing to an intraday peak of $90.78, its highest level since July 24.
The latest boost to oil prices came after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported that two oil tankers hit naval mines while attempting to pass through the waterway. The IRGC said the vessels were disabled and their crews evacuated after allegedly ignoring warnings about using what authorities called an “illegal route.”
Oil also received support from a sharper-than-expected decline in US crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 4.45-million-barrel draw last week, far exceeding forecasts for a 1.1-million-barrel decline and reversing the previous week’s 95,000-barrel increase.
However, further gains may remain limited as oil flows through the Persian Gulf continue to recover. Brown Brothers Harriman strategists pointed to Goldman Sachs estimates showing regional oil exports have rebounded to around two-thirds of their pre-war level of 20 million barrels per day. US Energy Secretary estimates similarly indicate that about 8 million barrels per day are currently moving through the Strait of Hormuz, while another 4–5 million barrels are being transported through alternative pipelines. This suggests supply disruptions are gradually easing despite continued geopolitical risks.
Markets now turn to Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting. Reuters reported that the alliance is expected to maintain its existing oil production policy for October, citing three sources familiar with the discussions.
Technical Analysis
WTI maintains a broadly constructive outlook on the daily chart, trading well above its 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Nevertheless, the $90–$92 area remains a major resistance zone that could restrict further gains in the near term.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 64, while the MACD remains positive, indicating continued upward momentum. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is near 16, suggesting that the current bullish trend lacks strong conviction.
A decisive move above $92 could pave the way toward $95 and potentially the psychological $100 level. On the downside, the 100-day SMA around $85 provides the first key support. A sustained break below this level could bring the 200-day SMA near $77 into focus, while the $67–$65 area would become relevant if both moving-average supports fail.
Leave a Reply