Last Updated on 24/08/2026
The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed the week almost unchanged near 98.80 after briefly dipping into the 98.50 area before recovering. The Greenback remains close to its lowest level since May, with weaker Treasury yields playing a key role. The US Treasury’s decision to at least double buybacks of longer-term debt has pushed yields lower, weighing on the Dollar despite stronger-than-expected US business activity data.
Gold climbed above $4,600 to reach a three-month high, while the Australian Dollar advanced to a multi-month peak. Crude Oil also remained elevated near a four-week high as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued.
US Dollar Forecast: Key Events Ahead
The upcoming week is heavily weighted toward the second half, with limited Dollar catalysts early on. The main highlights arrive on Wednesday with the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, followed by Friday’s key events: new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote and the preliminary annual benchmark revision to US Nonfarm Payrolls.
With the Dollar already trading near recent lows, a dovish tone from Warsh or a significant downward revision to employment data could put additional pressure on the Greenback.
EUR/USD Outlook
EUR/USD finished the week around 1.1680, remaining below the psychological 1.1700 level after another failed attempt to break higher. With few major Eurozone catalysts before Friday’s inflation data, the pair is likely to remain primarily driven by Dollar movements and developments at Jackson Hole. A stronger Eurozone HICP reading could reduce expectations for further ECB easing and provide support for the Euro heading into month-end.
GBP/USD Outlook
GBP/USD ended the week around the mid-1.3600s after retreating from its midweek highs. With little significant UK economic data scheduled, the pair is likely to take its cues mainly from the US Dollar and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Trading could remain subdued before Friday before potentially seeing increased volatility.
USD/JPY Outlook
USD/JPY closed the week slightly above 159.00 as a softer Dollar was offset by continued Yen weakness caused by wide interest-rate differentials. Tokyo CPI data on Friday will be closely watched for clues about the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. Stronger inflation could reinforce expectations for a September rate hike and put downward pressure on USD/JPY.
AUD/USD Outlook
AUD/USD climbed toward 0.7170, reaching its highest level in several months and outperforming other major currencies. The RBA minutes kick off the week, but Tuesday’s monthly inflation report will be the key event. Headline inflation is expected to ease toward 3.2% from 3.8%. A weaker-than-expected reading could reduce remaining expectations for RBA tightening and challenge the Australian Dollar’s recent rally.
WTI Oil Outlook
WTI Crude ended the week in the high-$80s, close to a four-week high. With no major oil-specific economic releases ahead, geopolitical developments remain the main driver. Washington’s shift toward economic sanctions against Iran instead of additional military strikes has reduced immediate concerns about a supply disruption, although stalled negotiations continue to support oil prices.
Gold Outlook
Gold closed above $4,600 at a three-month high, supported by a weaker US Dollar, declining real yields and renewed safe-haven demand amid Middle East tensions. The upcoming PCE inflation data and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech will be crucial for the precious metal. A dovish signal from the new Fed Chair could extend Gold’s rally, while a more cautious stance on interest rates could trigger a deeper pullback.
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