Last Updated on 17/08/2026
- Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $62,900 on Friday, having lost more than 3% this week, though recent price action suggests the decline may be easing.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $332.08 million through Thursday, reflecting a more cautious stance among institutional investors.
- Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to lift Oil prices and sustain a geopolitical risk premium, boosting demand for the US Dollar and limiting Bitcoin’s upside potential.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $62,900 on Friday, down more than 3% for the week as cautious institutional participation and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to pressure sentiment. Although the cryptocurrency is showing signs of stabilization, elevated Oil prices and escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are limiting risk appetite and keeping the near-term outlook for BTC subdued.
Middle East tensions continue to cap Bitcoin’s upside
Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict remained a key market theme this week, constraining demand for risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin. On Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Washington is preparing unprecedented economic measures against Iran, signaling that additional announcements could be unveiled in the coming days.
Meanwhile, Iranian officials maintained a defiant stance. Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated that Tehran’s objective is to make any confrontation so costly that future US administrations would hesitate before considering military action.
The standoff has also intensified around the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump reiterated that the United States maintains complete control over the critical shipping route, while Iran insisted the strait would remain closed until its demands are satisfied. At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen increased attacks on vessels operating in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait and claimed responsibility for a drone strike targeting a Saudi Aramco refinery, heightening fears of a wider regional conflict.
The combination of these developments has amplified uncertainty surrounding global energy supplies, sustaining a geopolitical risk premium in Oil markets. Higher energy prices and safe-haven demand have supported the US Dollar, weakened broader risk sentiment, and continued to act as a headwind for Bitcoin.
Institutional demand remains subdued
Institutional flows have provided little support for Bitcoin this week. According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of roughly $332 million through Thursday, highlighting a cautious approach among large investors. If Friday’s data also shows withdrawals, BTC could end the week with net ETF outflows, reflecting softer institutional demand and a more defensive market stance.
Cooling US inflation offers support, but Oil-driven risks persist
Recent US economic releases pointed to moderating inflationary pressures, potentially giving the Federal Reserve (Fed) greater flexibility to keep interest rates unchanged. While such a backdrop would normally favor risk assets, Bitcoin has struggled to capitalize on the softer macroeconomic data.
The latest figures showed that US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.4% year-over-year in July, down from 3.5% previously and in line with expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% annually, matching forecasts. Meanwhile, Producer Price Index (PPI) data released on Thursday came in weaker than expected, with monthly prices unchanged and annual producer inflation slowing to 4.7% from 5.5%.
Together with last week’s softer-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report, the data strengthens the case for the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its September meeting. A less aggressive monetary policy outlook generally benefits risk-oriented assets such as Bitcoin by reducing pressure from elevated borrowing costs and bond yields.
Comments from Fed officials, however, continue to send mixed signals. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that recent inflation pressures are largely tied to temporary factors such as tariffs and energy costs, supporting a patient policy approach. In contrast, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argued that inflation remains too high and that additional tightening may still be necessary to ensure price stability.
Market expectations have shifted accordingly. Fed funds futures now imply a little over a 65% chance of a rate hike before year-end, down sharply from nearly 85% a week ago. Although easing rate-hike expectations could provide a tailwind for Bitcoin, ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated Oil prices continue to bolster demand for the US Dollar, limiting the cryptocurrency’s upside potential in the near term.
What could shape Bitcoin’s performance in the second half of August?
According to Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, Bitcoin is currently in a phase of rebuilding momentum rather than entering a fresh bearish trend. The cryptocurrency has been trading within a volatile $63,000–$65,000 range, repeatedly struggling to secure a decisive breakout above the $65,000 mark.
Despite headwinds from rising bond yields and broader market uncertainty, Massabni believes Bitcoin’s ability to hold relatively steady suggests that buyers have not exited the market. Instead, investors appear to be waiting for a stronger catalyst before increasing exposure.
Addressing Bitcoin’s muted response to softer US inflation data, he noted that much of the positive inflation outlook had already been priced in by the market. Since the latest inflation figures largely met expectations, they failed to deliver the surprise needed to spark a new wave of buying. Investors are now focusing less on inflation itself and more on whether the data will lead to a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy and improved liquidity conditions.
Looking ahead, Massabni maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook. His base-case scenario sees Bitcoin ending August near $70,000, with a potential trading range between $68,000 and $72,000. However, he expects the path higher to remain volatile, requiring BTC to reclaim the $67,000 level to reinforce bullish momentum. A sustained move below the $61,000–$62,000 region, meanwhile, could delay or invalidate this constructive outlook.
Bitcoin technical outlook: Stabilization signals are beginning to appear
Bitcoin was trading around $62,900 on Friday after a modest rebound in recent sessions. Since mid-July, BTC has largely moved sideways between the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $65,520 and the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $64,000, reflecting a prolonged consolidation phase.
A weekly close above $65,520 could strengthen the recovery outlook and open the door for a move toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $78,490. Technical indicators on the weekly chart are showing early signs of improvement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been trending higher, reaching 38, while the bullish MACD crossover formed in mid-July remains intact, suggesting that downside momentum may be fading.
On the other hand, failure to hold above the 200-week SMA could trigger renewed selling pressure, potentially exposing the ascending trendline support near $60,000.
From a daily-chart perspective, Bitcoin remains in a broadly corrective structure. The cryptocurrency continues to trade below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and has been confined to a $62,300–$66,500 range since mid-July.
Momentum indicators still favor caution. The daily RSI sits at 41, while the MACD histogram remains slightly negative, indicating that sellers retain a modest near-term advantage despite signs of stabilization.
Key support is located at $62,300. A decisive break below this level could accelerate losses toward the July 1 yearly low of $57,800. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA near $64,458, followed by the 100-day EMA around $66,589, which aligns closely with horizontal resistance near $66,500. Until BTC regains these levels on a sustained basis, rallies may continue to face selling pressure, keeping the broader recovery attempt in check.
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