Last Updated on 17/08/2026
Gold climbs toward $4,400 as easing Fed rate-hike expectations outweigh U.S.-Iran tensions.
- Gold advances toward $4,395 in early Asian trading on Monday.
- Weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes, supporting bullion.
- Geopolitical tensions remained elevated after Iranian officials told President Trump to “accept the reality of defeat” and ruled out resuming talks with the United States.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) advanced to around $4,395 during Monday’s Asian session, extending recent gains as softer US inflation readings continued to reduce expectations of additional Federal Reserve tightening.
Fresh data from the US Census Bureau showed Retail Sales fell 0.6% month-over-month in July, reversing June’s 0.2% increase and missing market forecasts for a 0.1% rise. On an annual basis, sales growth slowed to 5.0% from a revised 6.8% previously, signaling weaker consumer demand.
The disappointing retail figures reinforced last week’s CPI and PPI reports, which pointed to easing inflation pressures. As a result, the US Dollar came under pressure, providing support for gold, which is priced in USD.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign roughly a 33% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. Expectations for lower borrowing costs tend to favor gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset.
However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may influence market sentiment. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi criticized Washington after President Donald Trump suggested the Strait of Hormuz could soon become a “territory of the United States.” Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that no negotiations are underway between Tehran and Washington, emphasizing that US acceptance of Iran’s conditions would be required before shipping operations through the strategic waterway could resume.
Despite near-term volatility, Commerzbank analysts maintain a constructive outlook for gold. They believe the metal retains further upside potential if the Fed refrains from additional rate increases, although they caution that gains are unlikely to occur in a straight line, citing recent price swings. The bank also highlighted renewed inflows into gold-backed ETFs as a supportive factor that strengthens the medium-term bullish case for the precious metal.
Technical Analysis: Gold maintains a bullish bias above key support levels
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade with a positive undertone on the daily chart, holding above its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and remaining well supported by the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint. As long as these technical foundations remain intact, the broader near-term outlook favors further upside.
Momentum indicators also support the constructive view. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64.09, indicating bullish momentum while still remaining below overbought territory, leaving room for additional gains before buyers become overstretched.
On the upside, the first significant resistance is located near the upper Bollinger Band around $4,480, a level that could attract selling interest following recent price advances. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day SMA near $4,385.85. A deeper pullback could target the Bollinger midpoint around $4,195, while a decisive break below that zone may open the door toward the lower Bollinger Band support near $3,905.
Silver Price Outlook: XAG/USD Bulls Eye Sustained Break Above $66.00 Following 100-Day EMA Clearance
- Silver extends its advance on Monday as persistent US Dollar weakness continues to support demand for the precious metal.
- The broader technical picture remains positive, with momentum indicators favoring further upside in the near term.
- However, a decisive breakout above the 100-day EMA is required to confirm the bullish outlook and open the door for additional gains.
Silver (XAG/USD) builds on Friday’s rebound from the mid-$63.00 area and continues to attract buyers at the start of the week. The metal is trading above $65.00, gaining roughly 1.5% on the day, although it remains capped below the critical 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
The US Dollar stays under pressure as investors further reduce expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes following softer inflation data and weak consumer spending figures in the United States. The weaker greenback is helping support demand for dollar-denominated commodities, including silver, reinforcing the potential for additional upside.
From a technical standpoint, XAG/USD has been consolidating within a relatively narrow range over the past week. This price action appears to represent a bullish pause following the strong recovery from July’s year-to-date low and the breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May–July decline.
Technical indicators continue to favor buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 61, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory, signaling that bullish momentum remains intact. However, silver must decisively clear the 100-day EMA resistance around $66.33 to strengthen the near-term bullish outlook.
A successful break above this level could expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $67.93, with further gains potentially targeting the midpoint retracement resistance around $72.02. On the downside, immediate support is located near the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $62.87. A move below this area could shift focus toward the lower boundary of the broader trading range around $54.70.
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