Last Updated on 28/08/2026
Bitcoin is trading around $80,255, up 2.33% over the past 24 hours and more than 1% since midnight UTC. The cryptocurrency has held above the $80,000 level on a sustained basis for the first time since May. With approximately 19.82 million BTC in circulation, its market capitalization has climbed to roughly $1.59 trillion.
The latest advance has been rapid. Bitcoin surged 23% last week, marking its strongest weekly gain in three years, and has risen about 27% over the past month. From its June low near $58,756, the cryptocurrency has gained roughly 38%. Despite the recovery, Bitcoin remains around 36% below its October 2025 record high of $126,021 and approximately 14% lower year to date.
Price action has remained volatile, with Bitcoin briefly exceeding $80,000 before retreating toward $79,475 and later recovering above $80,000. Over the past two sessions, the trading range has extended from approximately $78,600 to $81,100.
The technical picture above the current price is becoming increasingly challenging. The previous swing high is located at $82,850, while the 50-week moving average stands at $81,081. The average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs is estimated between $80,000 and $82,000, while nearly 8% of Bitcoin’s total supply was acquired within this range.
Below the current price, support appears more clearly defined. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $82,850–$57,800 decline is positioned near $77,489. Further support comes from the 200-day EMA around $72,799 and the 50-day EMA near $67,760. The $75,000–$76,000 region has already been tested and successfully defended.
Bitcoin has yet to confirm a full breakout. Instead, it is approaching one of the strongest overhead supply zones in its recent trading history, supported by eight consecutive sessions of ETF inflows. The next move through the $80,000–$82,000 area could be decisive for the market’s direction over the coming months.
Treasury Buybacks Trigger Powerful Bitcoin Rally
The catalyst behind Bitcoin’s latest surge came primarily from traditional financial markets rather than the cryptocurrency sector.
On August 19, the US Treasury announced plans to at least double government bond buybacks to a minimum of $4 billion per operation between September 9 and November 4, focusing on longer-dated maturities. The announcement came after long-term bond yields had risen sharply, with yields reaching multi-year highs across the US, Japan, Germany and France.
Bitcoin had been trading within a six-week range, with prices near $64,103 as recently as August 18. The Treasury announcement helped break that range, triggering more than $3 billion in short liquidations on August 19 alone.
The rally subsequently accelerated as bearish positions were forced to cover. Bitcoin had become a popular short trade amid elevated real yields, and the Treasury intervention weakened the underlying argument behind that positioning. Forced buying across spot and perpetual markets then amplified the move.
By August 24, Bitcoin had reclaimed $80,000 for the first time since May. The cryptocurrency subsequently experienced another sharp move above $81,000 before profit-taking pushed it back toward $78,500.
The Treasury’s buyback program continues to provide a supportive backdrop for risk assets, while the US national debt has surpassed $40 trillion. This combination of fiscal concerns, bond-market intervention and shifting yields remains an important macro factor for Bitcoin.
$80,000–$82,000 Represents a Major Supply Zone
One of the most important factors for Bitcoin in the near term is the concentration of previously purchased coins around current prices.
Realized price distribution data indicates that nearly 8% of Bitcoin’s total supply was acquired between $80,000 and $82,000, representing one of the largest concentrations across the cryptocurrency’s historical price distribution.
Approximately 5% of total supply is concentrated around the $80,000 level, while the $82,000 area also represents a significant accumulation zone. The $78,000 level contains another major concentration, accounting for roughly 3.7% of supply.
This means a large volume of Bitcoin is approaching breakeven after spending months below its acquisition price. Holders who endured a substantial drawdown may be more inclined to sell once their positions return to cost, potentially creating additional resistance.
US spot Bitcoin ETF investors face a similar dynamic, with the average acquisition cost also estimated around the $80,000–$82,000 range.
By contrast, the downside structure is more supportive. More than 6% of Bitcoin’s supply is concentrated between $60,000 and $63,000, creating a significant historical demand zone. This area could serve as an important structural floor if the current rally loses momentum.
The 50-Week Moving Average at $81,081 Is a Key Technical Test
The 50-week moving average, currently near $81,081, is one of the most closely watched technical levels for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has remained below this indicator since November 2025. Historically, major recoveries above the 50-week moving average in 2020 and 2023 were followed by sustained bullish cycles. While the historical sample is limited, the level remains an important reference point for longer-term trend analysis.
Bitcoin recently moved marginally above its 50-week exponential moving average, but a more decisive move above the 50-week simple moving average would provide a stronger bullish signal.
The challenge is that the moving average sits directly inside the $80,000–$82,000 supply zone. A major trend indicator and a significant cost-basis cluster are therefore converging within a narrow price range.
Momentum indicators are also stretched. The 14-day RSI has remained above 80, indicating strongly overbought conditions, while the daily MACD has expanded significantly above its signal line. Composite technical indicators remain tilted toward the bullish side.
However, overbought conditions alone do not necessarily signal an imminent reversal. A pullback toward $77,489 or even the 200-day EMA near $72,799 could represent a normal consolidation rather than a breakdown, particularly if Bitcoin subsequently establishes support above the 50-week moving average.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Strengthen the Rally
The latest ETF data provides another important source of support.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded eight consecutive sessions of net inflows, with cumulative inflows reaching approximately $2.8 billion. August inflows have exceeded $3 billion, making it the strongest month for Bitcoin ETFs so far in 2026.
Daily inflows accelerated significantly during the rally, including approximately $297.5 million on August 17, $186.4 million on August 18, $517 million on August 19 and $606 million on August 20.
Total net assets across US spot Bitcoin ETFs have risen to more than $99 billion, compared with roughly $77 billion in mid-August. However, much of this increase reflects Bitcoin’s price appreciation rather than new capital inflows.
Despite August’s strong performance, Bitcoin ETFs remain approximately $2.5 billion net negative for 2026. The recent inflows have recovered a significant portion of the capital that exited the products between May and July.
The demand is not limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum ETFs have also recorded eight consecutive sessions of inflows, while several smaller crypto products linked to XRP, Hyperliquid and Solana have attracted additional capital.
This suggests that the current move is being supported by spot demand rather than relying entirely on leveraged derivatives.
BlackRock’s IBIT Leads ETF Demand
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has accounted for a substantial share of recent ETF inflows.
IBIT attracted approximately $1.3 billion during the previous week and accounted for a significant portion of total US spot Bitcoin ETF demand. Its month-to-date inflows have reached roughly $2.64 billion, the strongest monthly performance since October 2025.
The fund’s share price has also closely tracked Bitcoin’s rally, with IBIT recording a weekly gain of more than 22% and reaching record trading activity during the advance.
Another notable development is the growth of in-kind ETF conversions. IBIT had recorded roughly $5 billion in in-kind conversions by August 26, compared with $3 billion in October 2025.
The minimum transaction size for these conversions was reduced from $25 million to $1 million, making the mechanism accessible to a broader group of professional investors and high-net-worth participants.
In-kind conversions allow investors to move Bitcoin directly into ETF structures without selling the underlying asset in the traditional market. This could reduce the amount of immediately liquid Bitcoin supply and potentially strengthen the structural demand backdrop.
Bitcoin Rally Remains Relatively Unleveraged
One of the more encouraging features of the current rally is that derivatives positioning has not expanded dramatically alongside the price.
Bitcoin futures open interest remains around 700,000 BTC despite the cryptocurrency’s sharp advance. In previous rallies, rapid increases in open interest often indicated that leverage was chasing higher prices, increasing the risk of a subsequent liquidation cascade.
Recent data instead shows that Bitcoin’s price has risen while coin-denominated open interest has declined. Between August 12–18 and August 23, Bitcoin’s average price climbed roughly 22%, while coin-denominated open interest fell around 11%.
This suggests that the latest advance has been driven more by spot buying and the unwinding of bearish positions than by aggressive new leverage.
There has been some renewed derivatives activity over the past 24 hours, with futures volume rising around 6% and open interest increasing approximately 3%. Nevertheless, perpetual funding rates remain relatively moderate, indicating bullish positioning without the extreme leverage typically associated with overheated markets.
Overall, Bitcoin’s current rally appears to be among the less leveraged advances seen in recent years. The key question now is whether sustained spot demand can absorb the heavy supply between $80,000 and $82,000.
A decisive break above $81,081 and subsequently $82,850 would strengthen the bullish case. Conversely, rejection from this resistance zone could trigger a correction toward $77,489 and potentially lower support levels.
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