Last Updated on 02/09/2026
Friday’s breakdown below the rising support line marked the first major warning for gold, while Monday’s close confirmed the second as prices settled below the $4,500 level.
Gold ended Monday at $4,481.50 and has since slipped toward $4,426, putting both bearish signals firmly in place. However, this weakness is viewed as temporary within the broader long-term bull market, with the next few months potentially resembling the consolidation seen in late 2012 and 2013 before the larger uptrend resumes.
Silver Confirms the Bearish Signal
Silver’s recent short-term strength proved short-lived. As expected, the metal has now fallen at roughly twice gold’s pace, resolving the earlier outperformance within a single session.
Silver remains near its declining resistance line, but a decisive close back below that level could trigger a much sharper decline. The bearish setup is reinforced by several technical signals:
- Silver has already broken below its rising support line.
- Friday’s high occurred precisely where two support/resistance lines intersected, once again highlighting the importance of these technical levels.
Dollar Breakout Adds Pressure
The US Dollar Index has now closed above its declining resistance line for three consecutive sessions, confirming the recent breakout. With the dollar continuing to advance, the August decline in the greenback increasingly appears to have run its course.
That development creates an unfavorable backdrop for precious metals. A stronger dollar, combined with rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns, could keep downward pressure on gold and silver.
Gold Falls Despite Renewed Conflict
The most important signal from today’s session is how gold reacted when geopolitical tensions escalated again.
The US and Iran exchanged strikes after roughly a month without direct attacks. US forces reportedly targeted Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, while Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against US facilities in Jordan and the UAE. Reports also indicated that a tanker struck mines and a bulk carrier was seized near Bandar Abbas, while President Trump renewed threats involving Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil-export hub.
Brent crude climbed back above $90, yet gold fell by more than 1%.
That reaction is significant. A month earlier, similar headlines triggered massive rallies in gold. This time, renewed fighting and a surge in oil prices failed to attract a sustained safe-haven bid.
The market appears to be focusing instead on the inflationary impact of higher oil prices. Rising energy costs could keep inflation elevated, encouraging the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. Combined with the confirmed dollar breakout, that pressure appears to be outweighing gold’s traditional geopolitical safe-haven appeal.
The Bigger Picture
Gold and silver are both showing increasingly bearish technical signals, while mining stocks are also moving lower. At the same time, the US dollar has confirmed its breakout and rising oil prices are reinforcing inflation concerns.
The clearest takeaway is simple: when a major geopolitical escalation occurs and gold falls instead of rising, the market is sending a powerful signal that traders should not ignore.
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