Last Updated on 17/08/2026
The US economic calendar is packed with key data this week, with investors closely watching the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes and July industrial production figures.
Last week delivered mixed inflation signals. Core CPI inflation eased to 2.5% year over year in July, marking its lowest level since March 2021. However, producer prices rose more sharply, with PPI increasing 4.4%. The July 28–29 FOMC minutes, due Wednesday, could offer insight into how Fed officials viewed inflation and monetary policy before receiving these latest readings.
Other important US releases include weekly jobless claims, regional business surveys, and Friday’s preliminary PMI figures. Earnings activity is relatively light, with Walmart and Alibaba among the notable companies scheduled to report quarterly results.
FOMC Meeting Minutes
The July FOMC minutes may highlight differences among policymakers regarding the economic and inflation outlook. Expectations for the Fed’s next policy moves have shifted following the latest CPI and PPI data, with markets now pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a September rate hike, down from more than 50% previously.
Jobless Claims
Initial unemployment claims rose to 209,000 in the week through August 7, moving above the 200,000 threshold for the first time in several weeks. Nevertheless, the four-week average remained near 199,000, indicating that labor-market conditions are still relatively tight. Continuing claims also declined, suggesting layoffs remain limited.
Business Activity Surveys
Recent surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve districts showed a notable improvement in business activity during July. Investors will look to the August surveys for confirmation that the recovery in regional manufacturing and business conditions is continuing.
Industrial Production
July industrial production is another major focus. Manufacturing hours worked increased slightly during the month, potentially pointing to a modest rise in factory output.
June industrial production had increased only 1.1% year over year, significantly weaker than the 4.8% annualized growth in real GDP goods during the second quarter. The persistent gap between these two measures has been evident for years, with GDP-related goods activity generally expanding faster than industrial production.
Key Global Economic Data
International markets will also have plenty to digest. Japan’s preliminary second-quarter GDP figures and China’s retail sales and industrial production data are due Monday. Canada will release inflation data, while the UK and euro area will publish additional inflation figures later in the week.
Global government bond yields have risen considerably this year. Ten-year yields are approaching 5% in Australia and the UK, while US yields are around 4.7%. Germany and Japan remain lower, at roughly 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively.
The upcoming economic releases could therefore provide important clues about whether the global bond-market repricing has further to go. Markets are also increasingly focused on the possibility of policy-rate increases from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank in September.
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