Japanese Yen Holds Near August Peaks as US Dollar Stays Under Pressure Ahead of NFP Report

Last Updated on 04/09/2026

• USD/JPY remains under pressure near its lowest level in a month.
• Softer expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening and lower US Treasury yields continue to weigh on the US Dollar.
• Rising expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes, together with speculation of official intervention, are providing support for the Japanese Yen.

The USD/JPY pair traded in a narrow range during Friday’s Asian session, hovering around 155.75 after recent declines. Although little changed on the day, the pair remains close to its August low and is on track for a significant weekly loss as investors await the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Market participants are closely monitoring the employment data for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. With expectations for a September rate increase having eased, the report could shape the outlook for US interest rates and influence near-term Dollar performance. Until then, traders may remain cautious about betting on a sustained recovery in USD/JPY.

The US Dollar weakened after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller noted that inflation appears to be moderating, increasing the likelihood that policymakers could leave interest rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The comments pushed US bond yields lower and dragged the Dollar to its weakest level in more than a week.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen continues to benefit from growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy further. Markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 17–18 BoJ meeting, with another increase potentially following in December. Expectations strengthened after BoJ board member Hajime Takata suggested the central bank should take a more flexible approach to rate hikes rather than adhering to a fixed semi-annual schedule. Combined with speculation of currency market intervention, these factors continue to support the Yen and limit upside potential for USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Bears Remain in Control Below Key Resistance

4-Hour Chart Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY continues to trade with a bearish bias after failing to sustain a move above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart earlier this week. The rejection from this key trend indicator suggests that sellers remain firmly in control of the market.

A decisive break below the August swing low in the 155.25–155.20 area could act as a fresh bearish signal, potentially attracting additional selling pressure. Such a move may push the pair below the psychological 155.00 level and extend the corrective decline from its recent multi-decade peak.

Key Support Levels

• 155.25–155.20 – August swing low
• 155.00 – Psychological support
• 154.50 – Next potential downside target
• 154.00 – Major support zone

Key Resistance Levels

• 200-period SMA (4H) – Immediate resistance
• 160.00 – Major psychological barrier

For bullish momentum to return, USD/JPY would need to reclaim and hold above the 200-period SMA. A sustained move beyond the 160.00 level would be required to significantly reduce the current downside pressure and signal a broader shift in market sentiment.

Overall, the technical structure continues to favor sellers, with downside risks remaining elevated as long as the pair trades below key resistance levels.