Last Updated on 27/08/2026
Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices retreated to around $4,610 during Thursday’s Asian trading session, pulling back from a three-month high after the latest US inflation figures largely matched market expectations. The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could still raise interest rates at its next meeting, reducing demand for the non-yielding precious metal.
The latest figures from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 3.7% year-over-year in July, slightly above the market forecast of 3.6% and unchanged from the previous reading.
Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy prices, remained at 3.3% annually, matching economists’ expectations. On a monthly basis, both headline and core PCE inflation increased by 0.2%.
Market participants viewed the report as broadly in line with forecasts, prompting a period of consolidation in gold prices after recent gains. According to analysts, the pullback appears to be driven more by profit-taking than by any major shift in the broader bullish outlook.
Following the inflation release, traders slightly increased their expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Futures markets now indicate roughly a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, up from about 36% before the data was published.
Attention now turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium, where investors will closely watch remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Friday for fresh guidance on the future path of US monetary policy. Any indication that policymakers remain concerned about inflation and willing to keep rates higher for longer could create additional headwinds for gold.
Despite recent volatility in the Treasury market and a notable rally in long-dated US government bonds, analysts at Rabobank note that gold has remained remarkably resilient. The metal has yet to show signs of a deeper selloff, suggesting underlying demand remains intact even as investors reassess interest-rate expectations.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains in a constructive uptrend, with the price continuing to trade above both the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint, reinforcing the bullish market structure.
Momentum indicators also favor buyers. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.64, remaining below the overbought threshold of 70 but indicating strong upward momentum. The reading suggests that bullish sentiment remains dominant, although the rally may be becoming somewhat stretched in the short term.
On the upside, the first key resistance level is located near the upper Bollinger Band at $4,745. A sustained move above this barrier could pave the way for further gains, while failure to break higher may trigger profit-taking and a period of consolidation.
On the downside, initial support is seen around the 100-day SMA at $4,380, with additional support provided by the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint at $4,365. Together, these levels form a significant demand zone that could help contain any near-term pullback. If selling pressure intensifies, the lower Bollinger Band near $3,985 represents the next major support area and a critical longer-term floor for the broader bullish trend.
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