Last Updated on 21/08/2026
Since our July 1 update, we have maintained a bullish outlook on Bitcoin (BTC), supported by the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and Technical Analysis (TA). In our previous analysis, we identified the possibility of a five-wave advance, provided BTC remained above $62,474 — our third key warning level for the bulls.
Four weeks later, Bitcoin successfully held that support, with its lowest daily close reaching $62,727 on August 1. Since then, BTC has entered what appears to be a powerful third-of-a-third wave advance, reinforcing the bullish technical structure.
Bitcoin Elliott Wave Outlook
Our earlier forecast for further upside has so far played out as expected. We continue to monitor a potential five-wave move — labeled gray waves i, ii, iii, iv and v — developing within the larger green Wave 3. Under this scenario, Bitcoin could eventually target the $77,000 area, as long as BTC holds above $65,418, which currently represents our third warning level for the bulls.
An important technical condition is the relationship between the fourth and first waves. In a standard impulsive structure, gray Wave iv cannot overlap gray Wave i. If such an overlap occurs, there is a greater than 60% probability that the current Bitcoin uptrend has already reached its peak.
Long-Term Bitcoin Price Forecast
With Bitcoin continuing to show strong bullish momentum, we also maintain our view that the previously observed four-year cycle has likely been invalidated. That cycle had remained effective for roughly 12 years and previously pointed to a potential market low between late November and late January.
However, Bitcoin’s ongoing impulsive price action supports the possibility that a significant low was established at the July 1 bottom. We therefore continue to track a potential five-wave advance from that level.
If this Elliott Wave structure develops as anticipated, it would provide stronger confirmation that a major Bitcoin market low is already in place. In that scenario, the next significant upside objective could be the Fibonacci-based $164,000–$337,000 target zone for the red Wave v within the larger black Wave 5.
Overall, Bitcoin’s current Elliott Wave structure remains constructive, with $65,418 serving as a key support level and $77,000 emerging as the next major upside target.
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