Last Updated on 19/08/2026
Gold Price Slips Below $4,450 as FOMC Minutes Loom
Gold recovers modestly from a fresh weekly low as the US Dollar comes under renewed selling pressure. However, oil-driven inflation risks keep US Treasury yields elevated, which could limit further USD losses. Traders now await the FOMC Minutes for fresh interest-rate signals before taking directional positions on gold.
Gold (XAU/USD) gives up its modest intraday gains and remains near the lower end of its daily range, trading below $4,450 ahead of the European session on Wednesday. Although the US Dollar (USD) has come under renewed selling pressure, Gold buyers remain cautious as markets await clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s future policy path before taking fresh positions.
Attention is now focused on the upcoming FOMC Minutes, particularly as rising energy prices fuel renewed inflation concerns. Crude oil prices have climbed to a nearly three-week high amid ongoing tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent geopolitical risks are keeping the oil market supported, while higher energy prices could reinforce expectations for tighter US monetary policy.
The combination of elevated oil prices and rising US Treasury yields continues to provide support for the US Dollar and may limit Gold’s upside potential. The 30-year US Treasury yield has also climbed to its highest level since June 2007, adding pressure to the non-yielding precious metal. Meanwhile, markets continue to price in a relatively high probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end.
ING analysts note that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded from the 99.40 area, suggesting that the Greenback may not be ready for a sustained decline. The bank highlights higher energy prices and rising long-term Treasury yields as key factors supporting the USD and potentially reviving expectations for a September Fed rate hike.
Persistent geopolitical uncertainty may also limit aggressive bearish positioning in the US Dollar, keeping the outlook for Gold cautious. Traders are therefore likely to await the FOMC Minutes for additional clues on interest rates and the Fed’s policy outlook.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline and is trading well beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the short-term bias tilted to the downside despite the recent consolidation.
The MACD remains above the zero line but has moved closer to its signal line, while the RSI stands at 59.24 in positive territory. This indicates that bullish momentum remains intact but could weaken if Gold fails to reclaim key resistance levels.
On the upside, the $4,406 area represents the first resistance, followed by the 200-day SMA near $4,509 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,519.36. On the downside, initial support is seen around $4,292, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, followed by $4,152 at the 23.6% level and the broader structural support near $3,925.
WTI Price Forecast: Oil Holds Near Three-Week High Below $85 as Bulls Target 100-SMA Breakout
- WTI extends its bullish momentum for a fourth consecutive session, reaching a near three-week high.
- Ongoing US-Iran tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to support oil prices.
- A decisive break above the 100-day SMA could strengthen the outlook for further gains.
WTI, the US crude oil benchmark, reaches a near three-week high during Wednesday’s Asian trading session but struggles to sustain gains above the $85.00 level. Despite the hesitation, oil prices remain on a bullish track for a fourth consecutive session, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding the US-Iran standoff.
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz continues to underpin crude prices. US President Donald Trump indicated that the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, while Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the strategic waterway would stay closed until Washington meets the conditions outlined in a June memorandum of understanding. The ongoing uncertainty keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices and supports the near-term bullish outlook for WTI.
From a technical perspective, WTI retains a constructive short-term bias while holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August decline at $82.38. Momentum indicators also lean slightly bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.90 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 0.47.
However, upside potential remains limited unless WTI breaks above the key 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.09. A sustained move above this resistance could open the door toward the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $87.06, followed by the 61.8% level at $91.73, which would provide a stronger bullish signal.
On the downside, $82.38 offers initial support, while deeper structural support is located around $76.60 and $67.25. A larger pullback toward these levels could attract renewed buying interest.
Leave a Reply