On the charts, both gold and the U.S. equity market are positioning for a meaningful upside move, with technical structures suggesting continued strength ahead.
A look at the short-term gold chart shows a clean ascending triangle formation, with price coiling beneath resistance and building pressure for a breakout. The measured move from this setup points toward the $5,000–$5,100 range.
That implies a strong continuation for those who accumulated during the dip into the $4,100 zone. Even more notable is that, despite the roughly $400/oz rally off the lows, gold still appears to be trading within a broader buy zone rather than an overextended blow-off phase.
On the daily timeframe, gold may be forming a large continuation structure, with a projected move that could extend beyond the $7,000 level.
At the same time, momentum indicators are deeply stretched to the downside. The MACD (20,40,10) is at one of its most oversold readings in years, and both the Stochastic (14,7,7) and RSI are showing similarly extreme conditions. This kind of setup often precedes a strong upside continuation once momentum resets.
The U.S. stock market “buy zone” setup reinforces the bullish case. When the Dow Jones Industrial Average and gold simultaneously test strong support levels, it often creates some of the most favorable entry points across gold, silver, and mining equities.
Right now, the Dow is sitting near the 45,000 level—a technically significant support zone—while key momentum indicators like RSI, MACD, and Stochastics are deeply oversold. That mirrors the condition in gold, where downside momentum appears exhausted.
In simple technical terms, this is a coordinated setup: gold is the asset with explosive upside potential, while the stock market provides the broader risk-on backdrop that helps fuel the move. If both stabilize and turn higher together, it creates the kind of alignment that can drive powerful upside trends across the precious metals complex.
From a fundamental perspective, the messaging backdrop matters as much as the data. When policymakers try to stabilize sentiment, it’s far more effective when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is sitting at a major technical support zone—like the 45,000 area. Strong support gives credibility to optimistic guidance; it’s easier to “talk up” markets that are already positioned to bounce.
The geopolitical layer adds another dimension. A potential de-escalation or deal involving United States and Iran would be a key variable, particularly through the energy channel. While the timing and likelihood remain uncertain, the market clearly needs some form of resolution to stabilize expectations.
The chokepoint is the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for global oil flows. If disruptions persist and the passage isn’t fully normalized, supply constraints could intensify. Right now, the pressure is being felt more acutely across parts of Asia, but energy executives warn that shortages could begin affecting Western economies within weeks if conditions don’t improve.
That feeds directly back into inflation. Sustained energy tightness keeps input costs elevated, which complicates central bank policy just as labor markets are softening. So while the technical setup points higher, the fundamental story hinges on whether energy pressures ease—or continue to reinforce the inflation side of the equation that’s already limiting policy flexibility.
A striking long-term oil chart is emerging, showing a major head-and-shoulders formation, with a potential price target around $245.
Curiously, the U.S. central bank seems to be brushing off the risks of a debt-financed war and rapidly building stagflation.
Meanwhile, surging fuel costs are crushing truckers, pushing some into bankruptcy. Airlines are raising fees, traffic through Hormuz has plunged from around 150 ships a day to just a handful, yet Fed Chair Jay Powell appears largely unfazed.
Equities may still be gearing up for another record run, potentially coinciding with oil pulling back toward the $70–$80 range. But beyond that…
Western investors may soon face a harsh realization: soaring oil prices, stagflation, excessive debt, and war are no longer the clear bearish signals for gold they were once thought to be.
The “March to Hades” chart highlights the long-term decline of U.S. fiat relative to gold.
Mainstream narratives often frame gold as a risky asset—something investors trade occasionally for large fiat gains. But in reality, the currency dynamic is the reverse. Seasoned gold advocates view gold as the superior form of money, meaning fiat should be used as the trading vehicle to accumulate more gold—locking in gains not in dollars, but in ounces.
Miners? The GDX daily chart looks exceptional—arguably a “chart of the year” contender.
At its core, a powerful technical setup is unfolding: the Dow, gold, and GDX are all testing support levels simultaneously, with oscillators flashing buy signals across the board.
The GDX chart itself appears remarkably clean—almost pristine.
For momentum traders, this could be an attractive entry point. Personally, I’d consider small positions in U.S. equities, while taking more meaningful exposure to gold, silver, and mining stocks. For gold-focused investors, it may be time to part with some fiat and lean into the opportunity on the buy side.
For years, a dependable macro strategy was to buy dips when economic data weakened. Softer labor figures implied a more accommodative Fed, leading to lower discount rates and, in turn, higher equity valuations. That chain is now being tested.
The key issue this Wednesday isn’t whether the data are weak—they clearly are. The real question is whether markets can continue to interpret soft data as a trigger for policy easing when inflation signals remain stubborn.
A Familiar Macro Play—and Why It May Be Breaking Down
For much of the past three years, equity markets leaned on a simple framework: weaker growth would trigger easier monetary policy, and that easing would offset the damage from slowing activity. Soft payrolls boosted expectations of rate cuts, often lifting stocks. Weak manufacturing data pushed bond yields lower, compressing discount rates and supporting higher valuations—especially in growth equities. The pattern became almost automatic.
But that playbook only works when slowing growth comes with easing inflation. A disinflationary slowdown gives the Fed room to cut rates. When growth weakens while inflation pressures stay firm, that flexibility disappears. Easing policy into persistent price pressure risks unanchoring inflation expectations, which could later require more aggressive tightening. Today’s data point to exactly that mismatch: labor conditions are deteriorating, while inflation-sensitive indicators remain elevated. The JOLTS hires rate for February dropped to 3.1%, near pandemic-era lows, with hiring at its weakest since March 2020. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s 12-month consumer inflation expectations rose to 5.2% in March, up from 4.5% in January. In other words, hiring is slowing sharply even as households expect higher inflation ahead.
Jerome Powell addressed this dilemma directly in remarks at Harvard on Monday. He highlighted the downside risks to the labor market, which argue for lower rates, alongside upside risks to inflation, which argue against easing. The Fed can afford to sit with that tension and wait for clearer trends—but markets typically cannot; they adjust immediately to incoming data. If Wednesday’s ISM Prices Paid index stays elevated following February’s 70.5 reading—the highest since mid-2022—it would reinforce what the mixed signals already suggest: this is not the kind of slowdown the old “buy-the-dip” reflex was designed for.
What the Hiring Data Is Already Signaling
The labor market’s weakening is showing up more clearly in the JOLTS hires rate than in headline payroll numbers. This metric tracks gross hiring as a share of total employment, and at 3.1% in February, it has dropped to levels last seen during the pandemic slowdown. While layoffs remain relatively low—and initial jobless claims around 213,000 suggest companies aren’t aggressively cutting staff—the real shift is in reduced hiring activity. The labor market is losing momentum on both sides: workers are less willing to quit, and employers are less willing to hire. Both trends point to softening demand.
The quit rate has stayed at or below 2.0% for eight straight months through February, with total quits falling to 2.97 million—the lowest since August 2020. When workers stop leaving jobs, it reflects declining confidence in finding better opportunities. This kind of stagnation tends to push unemployment higher धीरे through attrition rather than layoffs, making the deterioration less visible in monthly payroll reports. February’s payroll decline of 92,000 followed a series of inconsistent and often weak readings, including multiple recent negative months. Even January’s gain was driven by narrow sector strength rather than broad-based hiring. For March, the FactSet consensus sits at +57,000, but much of that expected increase may simply reflect the return of workers temporarily excluded in February due to a healthcare strike—hardly a sign of genuine improvement.
The ADP private payroll report, scheduled for release Wednesday morning, will offer an early look at March hiring trends. While ADP emphasizes that its data is independent and not a forecast of official figures, its February reading of +63,000 diverged significantly from the government’s count. At this point, the exact number matters less than the direction: whether hiring picked up meaningfully in March, or whether the slowdown seen in JOLTS extended into the new data.
Technical Snapshot
JOLTS – February 2026 (released Mar 31) Job openings declined to 6.9 million from 7.2 million in January. Hiring totaled 4.85 million, with the hires rate at 3.1%—near pandemic-era lows and the weakest since March 2020. Quits fell to 2.97 million, marking an eighth straight month at or below 2.0%.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence – March 2026 The headline index came in at 91.8, above the 88.0 consensus. The Present Situation component rose 4.6 points to 123.3, while Expectations slipped 1.7 points to 70.9—its 14th consecutive month below the 80 threshold often associated with recession risk. One-year inflation expectations climbed to 5.2%, up from 4.5% in January.
ISM Manufacturing PMI – February (latest actual) The headline PMI registered 52.4. The Prices Paid component surged to 70.5, the highest since June 2022. The March reading is due Wednesday, April 1 at 10:00 AM ET, marking the first release since the late-February escalation.
ADP Private Payrolls – March (Apr 1, 8:15 AM ET) Still pending. February showed a gain of 63,000, though this diverged sharply from the BLS estimate (roughly -50,000 in private payrolls). ADP emphasizes that its figures are independent and not a direct forecast of official data.
Nonfarm Payrolls – March (Apr 3, 8:30 AM ET) Consensus stands at +57,000, according to FactSet. U.S. equity markets (NYSE, Nasdaq) will be closed for Good Friday, with SIFMA recommending a full bond market closure. The next regular equity session is Monday, April 6.
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Currently at 4.41%, hovering near an eight-month high and up 44 basis points from 3.97% before the late-February escalation.
U.S. National Average Gasoline Price (AAA, Mar 31) $4.00 per gallon, reaching that level for the first time since August 2022.
How the Data Panels Frame the Argument
The three panels together lay out the core evidence. The first highlights a choppy payroll trend with several negative prints, and even if March meets expectations, hiring remains subdued. The second shows that the drop in the hires rate is not just monthly noise but a structural shift—hovering near pandemic-era lows while separations stay relatively stable, meaning the weakness is concentrated in reduced hiring. The third panel captures the real tension: consumer confidence from the The Conference Board came in stronger than expected at 91.8, yet the Expectations index sits at 70.9, below the recession signal threshold for 14 straight months. At the same time, 12-month inflation expectations climbed to 5.2%. Households are both pessimistic about growth and anticipating higher inflation—a mix that limits the Fed’s flexibility. Cutting rates risks reinforcing inflation expectations, while holding steady risks deepening the slowdown.
ISM Prices Paid: The Deciding Variable
While early attention will likely focus on the ADP payroll release, the more critical variable is the inflation signal from ISM. The Prices Paid index surged to 70.5 in February, its highest since mid-2022, reflecting rising input costs across commodities and tariffs. March will be the first reading to fully capture conditions after the late-February conflict, including the energy shock.
With oil prices elevated and gasoline back above $4 per gallon, this release becomes the first real test of how deeply cost pressures are feeding into the production chain. If Prices Paid remains high—or climbs further—while hiring data weakens, it creates the exact setup that challenges the old market playbook. Soft labor data alone would typically support expectations of easing, but persistent cost pressures make that response less likely without accepting inflation risk.
That divergence matters. The traditional “bad data is good news” logic only works when both growth and inflation move in the same direction. If hiring weakens while inflation signals stay firm, that relationship breaks down.
A Shift in Market Interpretation?
The issue isn’t that one week of data changes the macro outlook—it’s that the framework markets use to interpret data may no longer hold. The familiar reflex—weak data leads to rate-cut expectations, which lifts equities—was built in an environment where the Fed had room to ease because inflation was falling alongside growth. When those two forces diverge, that reflex starts to fail.
Jerome Powell emphasized this balance in recent remarks, noting that policy operates with long and variable lags and that the Fed does not respond mechanically to every short-term shock. That approach preserves institutional credibility. Markets, however, operate differently—they price probabilities in real time. The risk isn’t simply weak data; it’s weak data paired with stubborn inflation, which removes the usual policy backstop.
What Comes Next: CPI as the Decisive Test
The next major checkpoint is the March CPI release on April 10. February’s data largely preceded the late-February shock, while March will begin to reflect its impact—especially through energy prices. If CPI confirms what current indicators suggest—a cooling labor market alongside rising inflation expectations—it would strengthen the case that the old interpretation mechanism is no longer reliable.
Wednesday’s data won’t settle the question. But it will be the first structured test of whether markets can still treat weak data as bullish in an environment where inflation refuses to cooperate.
After oil’s sharp rally reversed into a steep decline, other asset classes followed in a classic de-escalation pattern, falling back into alignment.
Key takeaways:
Markets are pricing a shorter conflict, not full peace—declining duration risk is driving oil lower Oil remains the key transmission channel—once its war premium faded, yields dropped, the dollar weakened, and equities rallied.
Positioning played a major role—crowded long oil trades unwound while short equity positions were squeezed, especially into month-end .
The $34B pension rebalancing flow amplified the move but wasn’t the initial trigger.
The narrative has shifted from escalation to exit, though it remains fragile Fed policy stability helped calm markets.
If the ceasefire narrative holds, the rally continues; if it fails, oil will lead a broader reversal
Market dynamics:
Global markets rebounded sharply into month-end as investors began pricing in a potential off-ramp to the conflict disrupting energy flows. Oil and the dollar fell, while equities surged, with the S&P 500 gaining over 2% in one of its strongest rebounds in months.
The shift came as signals emerged that the conflict may be shorter than feared, with Iran indicating conditional willingness to end hostilities and U.S. leadership suggesting a limited engagement timeline.
Markets don’t wait for peace—they react to credible signs that worst-case scenarios may be avoided.
Oil had been pricing not just supply disruption, but the risk of prolonged impairment, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. As expectations for conflict duration shortened, that premium quickly unwound.
Prices fell not because supply returned, but because the market no longer needed to price a prolonged disruption. Even the possibility of earlier normalization was enough to move oil lower.
At the same time, positioning reversed. Previously crowded bullish oil trades lost momentum, triggering profit-taking and accelerating the decline.
As oil dropped, the broader market followed: lower energy prices eased inflation expectations, pushing yields down and supporting equities. The Fed’s pause on tightening further stabilized conditions, allowing markets to react more freely to improving sentiment.
Month-end pension inflows and short covering in equities added fuel, forcing stocks higher beyond what fundamentals alone would justify.
The dollar weakened as global portfolios rebalanced, reinforcing easier financial conditions and supporting risk assets.
Big picture:
Oil is falling due to reduced duration risk, yields are easing with lower inflation expectations, the dollar is softening as defensive positioning unwinds, and equities are rising on a mix of flows, positioning, and relief.
Markets have quickly shifted from panic to recovery, staging a sharp turnaround in just days.
Now, attention turns to whether this emerging “exit narrative” is credible. Both sides have shown some willingness to de-escalate, but uncertainties remain—especially around internal dynamics in Iran and Israel’s broader strategic objectives.
The next phase will be determined not just by headlines, but by price confirmation:
Oil must keep falling
Yields must stay contained
The dollar must continue weakening
Because markets are not reacting to reality—they are anticipating it.
Right now, investors are no longer trading the war itself, but the gap between expected outcomes and what ultimately unfolds—a space that holds both opportunity and risk.
Bitcoin edged higher on Tuesday, lifted by improved sentiment across risk assets amid renewed hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was also on track to post a monthly gain for March, potentially ending a five-month losing streak. By 18:04 ET (22:04 GMT), Bitcoin had climbed 2.1% to $68,197.3.
Fighting in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran showed little sign of slowing, as exchanges of strikes continued across the Gulf region. However, reports suggested that President Donald Trump is weighing a potential reduction in U.S. military involvement, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. While such a move could hint at partial de-escalation, ongoing disruptions to energy supply are likely to persist, raising inflation risks and keeping global monetary policy tight—conditions that typically weigh on speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, Iran signaled it could be open to ending the conflict if security guarantees are provided.
Separately, researchers at Google warned that advances in quantum computing may threaten current cryptographic systems sooner than expected. They noted that future quantum machines could potentially break elliptic curve cryptography—the foundation of blockchain security—using fewer resources than previously believed, urging the crypto industry to transition toward quantum-resistant solutions before such risks materialize.
Despite volatility, Bitcoin was still heading for a modest gain in March, although it remained well below its yearly highs and was down roughly 22% year-to-date. Performance across altcoins was mixed: Ether looked set to rise nearly 7% and end a six-month losing streak, while XRP, Solana, and Cardano posted declines, with the latter seeing the steepest drop. Meme tokens also underperformed, with notable losses across the segment.
Overall, digital assets appeared to close out a turbulent quarter on a steadier footing, with total market capitalization hovering around $2.3 trillion and signs of renewed institutional inflows offering some support to the market.
Gold extended its rally for a fourth consecutive session in Asian trading on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker dollar as investors assessed signs that the U.S. and Iran may be moving toward ending the Middle East conflict.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,694.16 an ounce by 21:35 ET (01:35 GMT), while U.S. gold futures gained 1% to $4,724.55. The metal had surged 3.5% in the prior session alongside a retreat in the dollar, though it still posted a decline of more than 11% for March.
Prices found support after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated Washington could withdraw from the conflict within “two to three weeks,” fueling hopes of de-escalation. Still, uncertainty around the timing and terms of any agreement kept market sentiment cautious.
On Iran’s side, state media reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled readiness to end the war, while maintaining key demands, including assurances against future attacks.
A softer dollar further underpinned gold by making it more appealing to overseas buyers, with the U.S. Dollar Index slipping 0.1% in Asian trading after a 0.6% drop in the previous session.
However, gains were limited by reports that Trump may halt the U.S. military campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, underscoring ongoing risks to global trade.
Gold’s rise this week follows recent volatility, as prices rebound from a sharp March selloff driven by a stronger dollar and changing expectations for U.S. interest rates.
In other precious metals, silver fell 1.1% to $74.35 per ounce, while platinum advanced 1% to $1,972.06 per ounce.
The dollar slipped Tuesday as hopes grew that the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran might be shorter than feared. Still, it remained on track for its strongest quarter since late 2024, supported by safe-haven demand amid ongoing uncertainty. The dollar index fell 0.59% to 99.96 but was headed for a 2.35% monthly gain and a 1.7% rise for the quarter.
Since the conflict began in late February, the greenback has been buoyed by its safe-haven appeal and the U.S.’s relative resilience to oil disruptions as a net energy exporter. Reports suggested President Donald Trump may be open to ending the campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, though officials including Pete Hegseth warned the situation could escalate without a deal.
Uncertainty remains high, with Iran threatening retaliation against major U.S. companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Apple. Analysts say the dollar may stay supported as long as geopolitical risks and market volatility persist.
Meanwhile, China and Pakistan called for an immediate ceasefire and renewed negotiations. Markets were also influenced by positioning ahead of key U.S. labor data, after job openings and hiring came in weaker than expected. Attention now turns to the upcoming March jobs report, which could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Among other currencies, the euro and pound rebounded modestly, while the Japanese yen strengthened for a second day amid intervention warnings from Japanese officials. In crypto markets, Bitcoin rose 1.75% to $67,757.
Gold is stabilizing above $4,500, though its recovery remains uncertain following a steep sell-off earlier this month. Despite a modest rebound at the start of the week, momentum is still fragile.
Gains in oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and a stronger U.S. dollar continue to limit gold’s upside potential. In the near term, resistance around $4,700 and support near $4,400 are expected to define its trading range.
Gold began the week on a positive note, rising 0.8% in early Monday trading. However, the recent surge in geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran triggered a sharp decline, and while prices are rebounding, it may be premature to view this as a full recovery.
Oil Price
Oil prices remain the key driver of market sentiment. Crude has stayed elevated after intensified weekend fighting between Israel and Iran, with the Houthis also entering the conflict. Although Trump claimed progress in negotiations, Iran has continued to reject those assertions.
While U.S. futures and European markets showed some early stability, this could prove short-lived, as seen in prior weeks. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen and bond yields remain firm.
Brent crude holding above $110 is reducing expectations for rate cuts and even prompting some to consider possible hikes. Typically, a stronger dollar and rising yields would pressure gold, but increased safe-haven demand is helping to keep it supported for now.
Still, investor confidence has weakened after gold’s previous strong upward trend stalled in recent months. Looking ahead, everything hinges on developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices, inflation, and central bank policy.
If tensions ease and oil prices decline in the coming weeks, the U.S. dollar could soften, which would support gold and other risk assets. However, the situation remains highly uncertain. Iran appears reluctant to negotiate, potentially leveraging elevated energy prices. Until there is clear progress toward de-escalation, any short-term market moves should be viewed cautiously.
XAU/USD technical analysis
Gold finished last week largely unchanged, rebounding from Monday’s decline after experiencing notable losses in the prior weeks. Importantly, it managed to stay above the $4,400 level — its February low — which provides a modestly positive signal.
That said, stronger confirmation is still needed before traders can conclude that gold has formed a bottom. Multiple resistance levels overhead may limit further gains, particularly as the metal has been in a downtrend since its peak in January.
Key Levels to Watch
A crucial area on the upside is the former short-term bullish trendline, now acting as resistance, along with the $4,700 level. This zone is strengthened by the 21-day exponential moving average near $4,750, making the $4,700–$4,750 range a significant barrier if prices continue to rise.
Beyond that, the next resistance lies between $4,800 and $4,840 — a region that has previously served as both support and resistance. A strong breakout above this band could open the path toward the key psychological level of $5,000.
On the downside, the $4,400–$4,500 zone is a critical support area. A daily close below this range would weaken the short-term outlook and could lead to a decline toward last week’s lows near $4,100, where the 200-day moving average provides additional support.
Further down, longer-term support is seen around $4,000, where a major upward trendline aligns with this important psychological level.
Overall, gold remains in a fragile position and has yet to fully stabilize.
The main disruption in financial markets right now is the sharp rise in both food and energy prices, reflected in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the highest import costs in four years. March inflation data for these sectors is expected to be particularly severe, with many economists now forecasting annual inflation above 4%. This has already pushed Treasury yields higher, especially following weak demand at a recent auction. As a result, expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts have diminished.
However, a weak March jobs report or potential stress in private credit markets could prompt the Fed to lower rates sooner than expected, despite persistent inflation pressures. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at Harvard this week, and investors will be watching closely for signals on whether slowing job creation could justify policy easing.
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is also keeping many investors cautious and on the sidelines. Historically, markets tend to rebound once war-related concerns ease.
Despite broader volatility, fundamentally strong companies continue to hold up well. For example, Argan (AGX) surged after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results, with strong gains in both revenue and earnings. As a data center-related company, its performance has also supported other stocks in the same sector.
Looking ahead, the U.S. is expected to maintain significant influence over global energy markets, including regions in the Caribbean, North America, and the Middle East. Lower domestic energy prices remain a priority, especially after substantial profits among energy producers. With a potential oversupply of crude oil in the coming months, energy stocks may face pressure, except possibly for tanker companies unless earnings forecasts improve significantly.
Overall, the U.S. is likely to remain the primary driver of global economic growth, continuing to attract international investment due to its stronger GDP outlook and a firming dollar.
The classic rock song Blinded by the Light points to a misguided investing habit: buying into the aura of Wall Street’s elite “white-shoe” firms. These institutions portray themselves as stabilizing forces in the global economy, yet history often reveals a different picture—one of reckless decision-makers leading the charge.
Goldman Sachs received nearly $23 billion in government bailouts due to mistakes made during the financial crisis.
Lehman Brothers—once considered among the smartest in finance—collapsed after over-leveraging itself into bankruptcy.
Wells Fargo paid $175 million to settle claims of discriminatory lending practices, charging higher rates and fees to around 30,000 African American and Hispanic borrowers compared to similarly qualified white customers.
J.P. Morgan was involved in a $25 billion settlement for “robo-signing,” which pushed thousands of homeowners into foreclosure.
Across some of the most prominent names in finance, the pattern goes beyond questionable practices to include profound management failures. Lehman Brothers stands out: its own analysts would likely have labeled such excessive leverage a “Strong Sell” in any other company. Despite knowing the risks, the firm doubled down on flawed bets—ultimately steering itself toward collapse.
And These People Manage Money for Others?
That’s where the real “stupid investment trick” comes in: assuming that if a product is offered by names like Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, or UBS, it must be reliable. Prestige gets mistaken for protection.
To be fair, poor or even unethical advice isn’t limited to elite firms—companies of all sizes can fall short. But the difference with these legacy institutions is that their brand carries weight. They leverage reputation as a selling tool. So when a polished advisor keeps pitching a “can’t-miss” opportunity, it’s worth pausing. More often than not, the real driver isn’t your long-term success—it’s fees, commissions, and asset gathering.
If these firms truly had foolproof strategies, they wouldn’t need to chase clients. The urgency and persuasion are part of the sales machine, not necessarily a reflection of quality.
The smarter approach is simple but often overlooked: build a clear, personalized investment plan. Not a generic template generated by software, but a dynamic strategy—something you actively review, question, and refine with your advisor over time.
Without that framework, you’re reacting instead of deciding. Flashy presentations, complex products, and confident voices can easily pull you off course. A solid plan gives you a filter: does this opportunity actually fit your goals, risk tolerance, and timeline—or is it just noise dressed up as sophistication?
Because if you’re relying solely on “the smartest guys in the room” without your own roadmap, you’re not really investing—you’re just hoping not to get blinded.
Bitcoin edged higher on Monday as investors digested mixed signals from both the U.S. and Iran regarding the ongoing Middle East conflict.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency had logged a two-week losing streak by Friday, with broader risk assets under pressure since the war began.
As of 18:13 ET (22:13 GMT), Bitcoin was up 1.4% at $66,734.8.
Iran escalation in focus
Markets on Monday signaled a worsening conflict in Iran, particularly after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi group entered the fray by launching missiles at Israel over the weekend.
Their involvement risks opening a new front, given their ability to carry out attacks in the Red Sea.
Separately, President Donald Trump warned he could target key Iranian energy infrastructure, including Kharg Island, if Tehran fails to reach an agreement with the U.S.
Trump said Washington was engaged in “serious discussions with a new, and more reasonable, regime,” though he added that failure to strike a deal—and reopen the Strait of Hormuz—could lead to sweeping attacks on Iran’s power plants, oil fields, and desalination facilities.
Iran has denied any direct negotiations. State media reported that while messages had been relayed through intermediaries, Tehran rejected U.S. demands as “excessive” and “illogical,” citing foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei.
The White House later said public statements differed significantly from private communications, maintaining that talks were still ongoing.
Meanwhile, crypto markets began the week on a steadier note. Total market capitalization rose 1% over the past 24 hours to $2.32 trillion, despite renewed concerns over Middle East tensions, according to Dessislava Ianeva of Nexo Dispatch. She noted that geopolitical developments continue to drive short-term volatility and heighten the importance of upcoming macroeconomic data.
Strategy may pause Bitcoin buying streak
Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, may have skipped adding to its holdings last week, according to a Coindesk report.
Executive Chair Michael Saylor typically hints at upcoming purchases in a Sunday post on X, followed by a formal announcement on Monday. This time, however, his post focused on promoting Strategy’s preferred equity offerings instead.
If confirmed, the pause would break a 13-week buying streak dating back to late December, during which the company accumulated a total of 90,831 Bitcoin, Coindesk said.
Crypto prices moved higher on Monday, with altcoins following Bitcoin’s upward trend.
The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, gained 3.1% to $2,034.71, while XRP rose 0.8% to $1.3282. BNB, Solana, and Cardano posted increases of 1.2%, 2.6%, and 2.7%, respectively.
Among meme coins, Dogecoin edged up 1.2%, and $TRUMP jumped 2.9%.
A massive oil tanker near Dubai was struck by an Iranian attack following the latest threats from Trump.
Iran struck and set fire to a fully laden crude tanker near Dubai on Monday, as President Donald Trump warned Washington would destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure if Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The targeted vessel, the Kuwait-flagged Al-Salmi, is the latest in a series of attacks on commercial shipping using missiles and drone strikes in the Gulf since U.S. and Israeli forces hit Iran on February 28.
The conflict, now a month old, has expanded across the Middle East, causing heavy casualties, disrupting energy flows, and raising fears of a global economic downturn. Oil prices briefly surged again following the attack on the tanker, which has a capacity of roughly 2 million barrels valued at over $200 million. Its owner, Kuwait Petroleum Corp, said the strike occurred early Tuesday, igniting a fire and damaging the hull, though no injuries were reported. Dubai authorities later confirmed the blaze had been contained after what they described as a drone strike.
Rising oil and fuel costs are beginning to strain U.S. households and pose a political challenge for Trump and Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections, particularly after pledges to cut energy prices and boost domestic production. Gasoline prices in the U.S. climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, according to GasBuddy, as tighter global supply pushed crude above $101 per barrel.
Meanwhile, hostilities show no sign of easing, with concerns mounting over a broader regional war. Iran-aligned Houthi forces have launched missiles and drones at Israel, while Turkey reported intercepting a ballistic missile from Iran that briefly entered its airspace. Israel has carried out strikes on targets in Tehran and Hezbollah-linked sites in Beirut, with explosions reported across parts of the Iranian capital and power outages affecting some districts.
The Israeli military said four of its soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon, where recent incidents have also claimed the lives of UN peacekeepers. Iran’s military stated its latest wave of attacks targeted U.S. bases and Israeli positions across the region.
The U.S. has begun deploying thousands of troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, signaling potential escalation even as diplomatic efforts continue. The White House said Trump aims to secure a deal with Iran before an April 6 deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments.
While U.S. officials say talks are progressing, Iran has dismissed proposed terms as unrealistic, insisting it is focused on defense amid ongoing attacks. Trump reiterated both optimism for a deal and a renewed threat to destroy Iran’s energy facilities if no agreement is reached, though reports suggest he may be open to ending military operations even if the strait remains partially closed.
Oil prices later eased and equities recovered on hopes of de-escalation. Still, the administration is weighing further steps, including seeking financial contributions from Arab allies, as it requests an additional $200 billion in war funding—an effort likely to face resistance in Congress.
Oil and war fears dominate markets heading into an uncertain Q2.
Financial markets enter the second quarter on shaky ground, highly sensitive to war-related headlines. This environment raises the risk of deeper equity declines, while the sharp selloff in bonds may start to attract buyers.
Even if the conflict eases soon, investors believe lasting damage to Middle East energy infrastructure and persistently high oil prices will weigh on growth and keep inflation elevated. That combination could further pressure stocks, though if growth fears begin to outweigh inflation concerns, bonds may stage a recovery.
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, noted that uncertainty dominates: it’s hard for investors to see beyond the constant flow of geopolitical news. While diversification into international equities remains appealing, she emphasized that U.S. exposure still plays an important role.
The Middle East conflict caps a volatile first quarter also shaped by U.S. geopolitical moves and rapid AI-driven disruption. Oil has been the standout performer, surging about 90% to above $100 a barrel, which has shaken bond markets and pushed expectations for higher interest rates.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters see oil ranging from $100 to $190 if supply disruptions persist, with an average forecast around $134. Meanwhile, prediction platform Polymarket assigns roughly a one-third chance of the war ending by mid-May and a 60% likelihood by late June.
Echoing the inflation surge of 2022, short-term borrowing costs in countries like Britain and Italy have jumped sharply, with notable moves also seen in U.S., German, and Japanese bonds. According to Societe Generale strategist Manish Kabra, the key factors for markets are how long the oil shock lasts and how central banks respond.
Since the war began, expectations for U.S. rate cuts this year have largely disappeared. In Europe and the UK, investors now anticipate rate hikes instead of easing, while hopes for monetary loosening in emerging markets have faded.
Kabra highlighted the upcoming U.S. Memorial Day weekend as a potential pressure point, as rising travel demand could intensify public and political focus on energy prices. Reflecting this backdrop, he has increased exposure to commodities in portfolios.
Bond markets have taken a hit, with yields rising sharply, but some investors see value emerging. Amundi, for instance, has added short-term eurozone government bonds and maintained positions in U.S. Treasuries, expecting central banks to look past short-term inflation spikes once the crisis stabilizes.
Similarly, Russell Investments sees bonds as more attractive than a few months ago and expects the dollar’s recent strength—up over 2% in March—to fade over time. Before the conflict, investors had been rotating away from U.S. assets, a trend that could resume if tensions ease.
Gold has slipped about 4% in March, as investors sell profitable positions to offset losses elsewhere, despite its usual role as an inflation hedge.
Equities, while initially resilient thanks to strong earnings and the tech sector, are now under pressure. The S&P 500 and Europe’s STOXX 600 have fallen roughly 9–10% from recent highs, and Japan’s Nikkei has dropped nearly 13% from its February peak.
Zurich Insurance strategist Guy Miller said his firm has shifted to an underweight position in equities as the economic outlook deteriorates. Data already points to weakening momentum, with U.S. consumer sentiment declining, German investor confidence dropping sharply, and business activity indicators hitting multi-month lows.
Although the U.S. benefits from a relatively strong economy and its status as an energy exporter, it is not immune. Prolonged high energy prices would still weigh on growth. The OECD has already warned that the global economy has been knocked off a stronger growth trajectory.
Miller concluded that this conflict differs from recent geopolitical shocks, which had limited market impact—this time, the implications for earnings, margins, and valuations are far more significant.
The U.S. dollar is on track for its strongest monthly performance since July, solidifying its position as the dominant safe-haven asset as escalating conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices higher and fuels concerns about a global economic slowdown.
The greenback extended its broad rally overnight, with the notable exception of the Japanese yen, where renewed intervention warnings from Tokyo have made traders cautious about pushing the currency much beyond the 160-per-dollar level.
After hitting its weakest level since July 2024 a day earlier, the yen traded at 159.81 in Tuesday’s Asian session, marking a roughly 2.4% monthly decline, largely due to Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy. It showed little reaction to data indicating a slight easing in Tokyo inflation.
Meanwhile, the euro dropped 0.3% overnight and is set for a monthly loss of around 3%, while both the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell to multi-month lows. The Australian dollar, which had remained relatively resilient for most of the month, has recently come under pressure as market concerns shift from inflation toward slowing global growth. It slipped to a two-month low of $0.6834 before stabilizing slightly, while the New Zealand dollar hit a four-month low near $0.5716.
Elsewhere, South Korea’s won weakened to its lowest level since 2009. The U.S. dollar index climbed to 100.61 on Monday—its highest since last May—and is up 2.9% in March, marking its sharpest monthly gain since July.
Geopolitical tensions intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. could target Iran’s energy infrastructure if Tehran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, following Iran’s dismissal of U.S. peace proposals and continued missile strikes on Israel. Reports of an Iranian attack on a Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai further lifted oil prices.
According to ING’s global head of markets, Chris Turner, the dollar is unlikely to give up its gains without clear signs of de-escalation from Iran.
On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a cautious stance, downplaying the likelihood of near-term rate hikes and emphasizing a wait-and-see approach as inflation expectations remain stable in the longer term. Although this pushed short-term bond yields lower and reduced expectations for rate hikes this year, it did little to weaken the dollar, which continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty.
Other traditional safe havens have underperformed since the conflict began. Bonds and gold have struggled, while the yen has remained weak and the Swiss franc has been pressured by signals from the Swiss National Bank that it may act to curb currency strength. The dollar has gained nearly 4% against the franc this month, reaching around 0.80 francs.
Looking ahead, investors are watching for upcoming European inflation data and China’s PMI figures later in the session.
The coming week will be driven by key U.S. data releases, including the jobs report and retail sales figures, alongside ongoing developments in the Iran conflict.
ExxonMobil is highlighted as a momentum opportunity, supported by increased oil price volatility stemming from Middle East supply risks.
In contrast, Nike is seen as a stock to avoid ahead of its earnings release, with concerns over potentially weak results and cautious forward guidance.
U.S. equities fell sharply in a broad-based selloff on Friday, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite slipping into correction territory as investors grew concerned about the global economic fallout from the war in Iran.
The S&P 500 extended its losing streak to a fifth consecutive week, falling 2.1%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.9%.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on the upcoming U.S. employment report, a key economic release expected to show around 56,000 job additions and an unemployment rate of 4.4%, alongside ongoing monitoring of the second month of the Iran conflict. The payrolls data is scheduled for April 3, when U.S. markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.
Retail sales for February and manufacturing activity data are also scheduled for release next week.
On Monday, Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at Harvard University, with his remarks likely to influence market sentiment.
On the corporate side, Nike is set to report earnings on Tuesday, while the majority of first-quarter results will come later in the earnings season.
Overall, the focus remains on the week ahead—Monday, March 30 to Friday, April 3—as investors position for key macro data, central bank commentary, and early corporate earnings, along with one stock expected to outperform and another at risk of further downside.
Buy Idea: ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil emerges as the top pick to buy this week, supported by a notable surge in global oil prices as markets react to heightened fears of supply disruptions tied to the ongoing U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran. Since the outbreak of the war, crude benchmarks have climbed sharply amid growing concern that the turmoil could choke flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has surged more than 70% year-to-date, trading near $100 per barrel, while Brent crude futures have climbed above $105 and briefly approached $110 during intraday trading on Friday.
Despite periodic pullbacks and speculation around potential ceasefires, geopolitical risk premiums remain elevated, helping to sustain higher energy prices in the near term.
ExxonMobil is well positioned to benefit from this environment, given its large upstream portfolio, including major production assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana. As a result, each $10 increase in crude prices could add billions of dollars in incremental annual cash flow.
Notably, XOM is trading close to its 52-week high of $171.23. While volatility has increased, the stock continues to demonstrate strong resilience, reflected in its relatively low 1-year beta of 0.27, suggesting limited sensitivity to broader market swings even amid turbulence.
This stability reinforces ExxonMobil’s appeal as a buy or add at current levels, particularly as geopolitical tensions continue to support higher crude prices.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Around current levels (~$171.00)
Exit Target: $180.00 (approx. +5.3%)
Stop-Loss: $165.60 (approx. -3.5%)
Stock to Offload: Nike
Nike, by contrast, is the stock to avoid or sell this week, as it heads into its upcoming earnings release facing multiple challenges. The sportswear giant is scheduled to report fiscal Q3 results on Tuesday at 4:15 PM ET after the market close, and expectations remain weak.
Despite its globally recognized brand, Nike has been under pressure in recent quarters due to weakening consumer demand, rising competitive pressure, and a series of strategic setbacks.
Options markets are currently pricing in an earnings-related move of roughly ±9%, suggesting significant volatility ahead, with downside risk that could drive the stock toward multi-year lows.
Nike is projected to report a 45% year-over-year decline in adjusted EPS to $0.30, with revenue expected to slip 1% to around $11.2 billion. The weaker outlook reflects soft demand in key regions—especially China—along with inventory overhang, higher tariff pressures, and intensifying competition.
Any disappointing forward guidance could further dampen investor sentiment, as the market increasingly questions when Nike’s turnaround strategy under new leadership and restructuring efforts will begin to deliver sustained growth.
Meanwhile, competitors such as On, Hoka, and Alo Yoga continue to take share in both performance and lifestyle segments, gradually eroding Nike’s dominance. At the same time, Nike’s premium pricing strategy is becoming more challenging in an increasingly value-sensitive consumer environment.
Nike (NKE) is currently trading just above its 52-week low at around $51.20, extending a persistent downtrend marked by a 16.8% decline over the past month.
Heading into a key earnings release, management has already flagged continued headwinds, and the combination of elevated valuation concerns and weak price momentum suggests the stock may remain under pressure.
Although the RSI indicates oversold conditions from a technical standpoint, the absence of clear positive catalysts raises the risk that attempting to “buy the dip” could be premature.
GBP/USD edges up after four consecutive days of declines, trading near 1.3270 during Monday’s Asian session. However, the daily chart still points to a sustained bearish outlook, with the pair continuing to move within a descending channel pattern.
GBP/USD Market Technical Outlook
On the daily timeframe, GBP/USD retains a mildly bearish bias as price remains below a flattening 100-day exponential moving average and trades under the Bollinger Band midpoint, keeping action confined to the lower half of the volatility range. The RSI near 45 suggests fading bullish momentum rather than strong selling pressure, indicating sellers still have a slight advantage while pullbacks remain orderly.
Key support is seen around the recent low at 1.3230, which previously aligned with the lower Bollinger Band; a break below this level would likely expose further downside toward 1.3160. On the upside, resistance is located at 1.3430, where the 100-day EMA and Bollinger midline converge, and a sustained daily close above this zone would be needed to ease bearish pressure and shift focus toward 1.3560.
Fundamental Analysis
A mixed fundamental backdrop calls for caution before taking strong directional positions.
Market reports indicate ongoing diplomatic efforts to establish a one-month ceasefire framework aimed at enabling US–Iran negotiations on ending the conflict. This follows President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure by five days, raising hopes for potential de-escalation in the Middle East. However, tensions remain elevated as hostilities continue, with Israel maintaining strikes on Iran and the US deploying additional forces, including elements of the 82nd Airborne Division, to the region.
At the same time, Iran has launched fresh missile attacks on Israel, while Gulf states report ongoing interceptions of drones and missiles amid escalating fighting across Lebanon and Iraq. These developments keep geopolitical risk elevated and support crude oil prices, adding to inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may remain hawkish. Markets have largely priced out further Fed rate cuts and are increasingly factoring in the possibility of a rate hike later this year, which supports the US dollar and limits upside potential for GBP/USD.
On the UK side, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed headline CPI holding at 3.0% year-on-year in February, in line with expectations. However, core inflation surprised to the upside, rising to 3.2% from 3.1% previously. Combined with a hawkish Bank of England (BoE) outlook—hinting at possible rate hikes as early as April—this provides some underlying support for the British pound and helps cushion downside pressure on GBP/USD.
EUR/USD trades sideways near a one-week low and appears prone to further downside.
Rising geopolitical tensions continue to support the US dollar, likely limiting any upside in the pair.
The technical outlook also leans bearish, reinforcing expectations for deeper declines.
EUR/USD edges slightly higher after revisiting a one-week low earlier Monday, holding near the key 1.1500 level in the Asian session. However, gains appear limited as escalating geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for the safe-haven US dollar, weighing on the pair.
Reports indicate the Pentagon may be gearing up for prolonged ground operations in Iran, while the involvement of Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen adds to fears of a broader Middle East conflict. This keeps investor sentiment fragile. At the same time, rising energy prices are stoking inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve, further underpinning the USD and capping EUR/USD upside.
Technically, the short-term outlook remains slightly bearish, with prices staying below the flat 200-hour EMA near 1.1550. Momentum indicators show indecision, as MACD hovers around neutral levels and RSI sits near 43, indicating a mild seller advantage without strong downside momentum.
On the upside, resistance is seen at 1.1535, followed by 1.1550. A sustained break above this zone could shift sentiment and pave the way toward 1.1580. On the downside, support lies at 1.1490, with further weakness exposing 1.1475. A decisive break below this level would reinforce bearish pressure and open the path toward 1.1450.
The Nasdaq 100 attempted to rally early in the week but ultimately tumbled as market fear intensified. With U.S. interest rates continuing to rise, the index has now broken below the key 23,800 level.
We are also trading below the 50-week EMA, and quite frankly, this is a market being driven almost entirely by the latest headlines out of Washington or Tehran, as they are causing sharp swings in interest rate expectations. As rates climb, they put significant pressure on technology stocks—and that dynamic is clearly playing out now.
USD/MXN
The U.S. dollar initially declined against the Mexican peso but has now formed a hammer pattern for the third consecutive week. This suggests the peso may start to weaken, and with U.S. interest rates rising, the negative swap cost associated with buying this pair becomes less of a burden.
On the upside, the 50-week EMA is near the 18.29 level, with the 18.50 area as the next likely target. If the pair pulls back from here, pay close attention to next week’s candlestick formation, as it would take significant downside pressure on the U.S. dollar to shift the trend. While the interest rate differential makes me hesitant to buy the dollar against the peso, the market still appears to be attempting a rally.
GBP/JPY
The British pound edged higher against the Japanese yen this week, and the key level to watch now is 214 yen, which has acted as a significant barrier. A break above this level would likely open the door for further upside.
Short-term pullbacks should continue to present buying opportunities, but there is always the risk of intervention from the Bank of Japan. That said, it’s likely a challenging task for the central bank to prevent the yen from weakening significantly. The ongoing interest rate differential will keep driving yen-denominated pairs higher, with the British pound standing out as a key beneficiary.
EUR/USD
The euro has been quite volatile this week, ultimately forming something resembling a shooting star. We remain within the same range that’s held for some time, suggesting little has fundamentally changed. However, a breakdown below the 1.14 level could trigger a sharp strengthening in the U.S. dollar.
In that scenario, you’d likely look to buy the U.S. dollar against most currencies—not just the euro—since this pair often acts as a broader signal for how the greenback performs globally. On the other hand, if we break to the upside and clear this past week’s highs, that would be broadly dollar-negative and could pave the way for a move toward the 1.18 level.
Gold (Xau/Usd)
Gold prices dropped sharply over the week but staged a solid recovery. A large weekly hammer is beginning to form, though a break above $4,600 is needed to confirm strong momentum. While there are many factors supporting further gains, rising U.S. interest rates remain a key headwind.
Rising interest rates remain a significant headwind, weighing on gold despite ongoing geopolitical tensions that could otherwise push prices higher. A drop below the $4,000 level would be severely bearish, but for now, the market appears to be attempting a rebound.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin has been a bit weak over the week, but it’s still holding within the same range. Given the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, that actually counts as relatively strong performance. The price is currently hovering around the 200-week EMA, a key long-term support level.
The $72,000 level continues to act as resistance, while $60,000 below remains a solid support zone. Overall, the market is quite choppy, but it appears to be in the process of building a base for a potential longer-term move.
Natural Gas
Natural gas declined over the week but has shown a modest rebound. However, it’s likely a market retail traders should avoid for now, as demand is dropping sharply.
While Europe may continue to face supply challenges, this is seasonally a weak period for natural gas demand. Many retail traders also overlook that they are trading a U.S.-centric contract. With spring approaching, the typical strategy is to sell into rallies once signs of exhaustion appear.
USD/CHF
The U.S. dollar has gained solid ground against the Swiss franc and is now approaching the key 0.80 level. A breakout above that point could trigger a stronger upward move, but for now, such a scenario seems unlikely.
In this environment, the outlook remains bullish, with interest rate differentials continuing to support further upside. The Swiss central bank also provides a form of downside protection, having signaled it may intervene if the franc strengthens excessively. This creates a favorable “buy on dips” setup, with the added benefit of earning daily swap.
Gold prices edged up slightly as attention remains on the escalating Iran conflict.
Gold edged higher in Asian trading on Monday, recovering modestly after a volatile week, as investors continued to watch the risk of escalation in the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran.
Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,509.51 an ounce, with futures rising similarly to $4,537.40. Prices had swung sharply last week, dropping to around $4,000 before rebounding close to $4,500 by Friday.
Other precious metals were mixed, with silver slipping 0.9% while platinum advanced 1.8%.
Analysts at OCBC said the recent rebound in gold appears largely technical, following a steep decline of about 20% since the conflict began. While bearish pressure is easing and momentum indicators are improving, they cautioned that the recovery may struggle to hold unless prices break above key resistance levels at $4,624, $4,670, and $4,850 per ounce.
They also warned that persistently high energy prices could keep inflation elevated, potentially pushing Treasury yields higher and creating a less favorable environment for gold in the near term.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remained high after Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched attacks on Israel over the weekend, raising fears of a broader conflict. Iran signaled readiness for a possible U.S. ground invasion, amid reports that Washington is deploying additional troops to the Middle East.
U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing and a deal could be near, though he provided no clear timeline and warned that further strikes on Tehran remain possible. He also recently extended a deadline for potential attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure into early April.
Oil prices jumped above $115 per barrel after Yemen’s Houthi forces launched an attack on Israel.
Oil prices surged in early Monday trading after Yemen’s Houthi group launched attacks on Israel, raising fears of a wider Middle East conflict.
Brent crude jumped 2.2% to $115.08 a barrel, after briefly spiking as high as $116.43.
The Iran-backed Houthis said they had fired multiple missiles at Israel and warned of further strikes, heightening concerns about escalation—especially given their ability to target vessels in the Red Sea.
Tensions remained elevated as Israeli forces struck targets in Tehran, while the U.S. deployed 3,500 troops to the region aboard the USS Tripoli. Iran also signaled readiness for a potential U.S. ground operation.
Oil prices have rallied sharply in March, with Brent up nearly 60%, driven by severe supply disruptions. Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a route carrying about 20% of global oil supply—has intensified market fears.
While Pakistan has offered to host talks between Washington and Tehran following a U.S. ceasefire proposal, Iran has largely rejected direct negotiations and accused the U.S. of preparing for a ground invasion.
Donald Trump said the United States and Iran have been engaging both directly and through intermediaries, describing Iran’s new leadership as “very reasonable,” even as additional U.S. troops deployed to the region and Tehran warned it would not accept humiliation.
His comments came after Pakistan announced it was preparing to host potential talks between Washington and Tehran aimed at ending the month-long conflict. Trump expressed confidence a deal could be reached, though he acknowledged uncertainty.
He also suggested that recent strikes, including one that killed Ali Khamenei, had effectively resulted in regime change, noting that the new leadership appears more pragmatic.
The conflict, which began with an Israeli strike on February 28, has spread across the Middle East, causing heavy casualties, disrupting global energy supplies, and weighing on the world economy.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said regional discussions had focused on ending the war and possibly hosting U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad, though it remains unclear if both sides will attend.
Meanwhile, Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf accused the U.S. of signaling negotiations while preparing for a potential ground invasion, warning that Iran would resist any attempt at forced submission.
The Pentagon has sent thousands of additional troops to the region, giving Washington the option of launching a ground offensive, while Israel has indicated it will continue strikes against Iranian military targets regardless of diplomatic efforts.
Recent Israeli airstrikes have targeted missile facilities and infrastructure across Iran, while Iranian retaliation has struck sites in Israel. The conflict has also disrupted key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices sharply higher and rattling global markets.
As tensions escalate, the arrival of more U.S. forces and the possibility of broader regional involvement—including attacks linked to Yemen’s Houthi forces—raise the risk of a prolonged and wider war.
The U.S. dollar rose on Friday, positioning itself for its strongest monthly performance since July, as investors turned to the currency as a safe haven amid uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict.
By 17:28 ET (21:28 GMT), the U.S. Dollar Index—which measures the greenback against six major currencies—had increased by 0.3% to 100.18.
The U.S. dollar is on track for its strongest monthly performance since July 2025.
The U.S. dollar is on track for its strongest monthly gain since July 2025, with the Dollar Index rising 2.6% in March—its biggest increase since a 3.2% climb last July.
This strength has been driven by growing safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, along with expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer due to inflation pressures from rising energy prices. Markets have largely abandoned bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, and are even starting to price in potential rate hikes.
At the same time, investors have been selling off bonds, pushing U.S. Treasury yields sharply higher, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since July.
According to Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman, while safe-haven flows have played a role, the dollar’s strength is more fundamentally driven—particularly by the U.S.’s lower reliance on imported oil compared to other regions. He noted that unlike past periods of uncertainty, the current environment may have a less severe impact on U.S. incomes, helping support the dollar despite global economic disruptions.
Trump pushed back a critical deadline, while Iran reported that its infrastructure had been struck.
Risk assets fell sharply on Friday as tensions in the Middle East intensified, while oil prices surged past $110 per barrel. Although President Donald Trump extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the move did little to reassure markets.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that Israeli strikes had already hit key infrastructure, including steel plants, a power station, and civilian nuclear facilities, calling the attacks inconsistent with Trump’s extended timeline.
Earlier, Trump had warned Iran to unblock the strategic waterway—through which about 20% of global oil supply passes—or face U.S. strikes on its energy infrastructure. He later delayed potential action until Friday following what he described as “very strong” talks with Iran. However, Tehran has denied that any negotiations with Washington are taking place.
The euro and British pound weakened, while the yen surged to 160 against the dollar.
The euro and British pound weakened against the U.S. dollar, with EUR/USD falling 0.2% to 1.1510 and GBP/USD dropping 0.5% to 1.3259, as Europe continues to face energy supply disruptions—especially in natural gas—linked to the Iran conflict.
G7 diplomats met in France, where U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted the Strait of Hormuz as a key issue, warning that any attempt by Iran to impose tolls on the passage would be unacceptable.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen slid further, with USD/JPY rising 0.4% to 160.25. Reports suggest that breaching the 160 level could prompt intervention by Japanese authorities. The Australian dollar, often seen as a risk-sensitive currency, remained broadly stable after earlier falling to a two-month low.
Analysts at MUFG expect the U.S.–Iran conflict to be relatively short-lived, with geopolitical risk premiums eventually easing. However, they caution that a prolonged conflict could keep energy prices elevated, putting additional pressure on currencies in Asia that rely heavily on energy imports—particularly the South Korean won and the Japanese yen.
U.S. stocks are facing a challenging mix of shrinking valuation multiples and still-strong corporate fundamentals as markets head into the Q1 2026 earnings season.
According to Goldman Sachs’ latest “Weekly Kickstart” report, the S&P 500 has fallen about 9% from its January peak, pressured by rising oil prices, higher interest rates, and ongoing instability linked to the Iran conflict. Over the past month, the index’s P/E ratio has dropped from 21x to 19x, even as analysts have unexpectedly increased 2026 EPS forecasts by 3%.
From a sentiment standpoint, positioning has weakened sharply, with Goldman’s U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator falling to -0.9—its lowest level since August 2025. While historically such low readings can precede stronger returns, analysts caution that sentiment alone may not be enough to drive a rebound without clearer improvements in underlying fundamentals. Continued escalation in the Middle East could still pose downside risks to growth expectations.
Despite macro pressures, corporate fundamentals remain relatively solid. Goldman still expects S&P 500 earnings to grow 12% in 2026, assuming disruptions do not worsen significantly. The upcoming earnings season will be key in testing this outlook, particularly whether companies can sustain margins amid elevated energy costs and shifting trade dynamics.
Looking ahead, markets are closely watching how the Federal Reserve responds to stagflationary pressures. While earnings growth persists, high oil prices and sticky inflation complicate the case for rate cuts. Investors are increasingly leaning toward high-quality companies with strong balance sheets that can endure a prolonged high-rate environment. Ultimately, management guidance in the coming earnings reports will play a decisive role in determining whether the S&P 500 can stabilize at current levels.
Bitcoin is heading for a weekly loss as escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on risk appetite, with the cryptocurrency falling over 4% to around $66,000 after a brief rally. The downturn has been driven by a shift from oil shock concerns to rising interest rate pressures, as the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran dampens expectations for near-term monetary easing.
Additional pressure came from a $14 billion options expiry that triggered significant liquidations, while investors increasingly moved into the U.S. dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising Treasury yields. Elevated oil prices and inflation concerns have further reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Despite the bearish sentiment, some analysts view the pullback as a temporary reset rather than a fundamental breakdown, maintaining optimistic long-term targets. However, the technical outlook remains fragile, with key support levels under threat and potential for deeper declines if they are breached.
Meanwhile, the broader crypto market also weakened, with Ether, XRP, Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin all posting notable losses. Until geopolitical tensions ease, Bitcoin is expected to remain volatile and largely influenced by macroeconomic and bond market developments rather than internal crypto factors.
The U.S. dollar climbed on Friday, putting it on track for its strongest monthly performance since July 2025, as investors turned to the currency for safety amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 100.18 and is up 2.6% so far in March, marking its biggest monthly gain in months.
Demand for the dollar has been supported not only by its safe-haven appeal but also by expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer, driven by rising energy prices and inflation pressures. Markets have largely abandoned expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with some even pricing in potential rate hikes. At the same time, investors have been selling bonds, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since July.
Analysts suggest the dollar’s strength is also rooted in fundamentals, particularly the U.S.’s lower reliance on imported oil compared to other regions, making it more resilient to energy price shocks. In contrast, Europe and parts of Asia remain more vulnerable to disruptions caused by the conflict.
Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on risk assets, while oil prices surged above $110 per barrel. Despite extending a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. President Donald Trump’s move did little to calm markets, especially as reports emerged of Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure, which Tehran said contradicted ongoing diplomatic timelines.
In currency markets, the euro and British pound weakened against the dollar, while the Japanese yen fell to around 160 per dollar, nearing levels that could prompt government intervention. Analysts expect the conflict may be short-lived, but warn that prolonged tensions could keep energy prices elevated and continue to pressure global markets, particularly currencies of energy-importing economies.
Bitcoin declined on Friday, capping a subdued week as heightened risk aversion tied to the Iran conflict and the looming $14 billion options expiry kept traders cautious on cryptocurrencies.
The world’s largest digital asset dropped 1.9% to $68,739.5 by 02:18 ET (06:18 GMT), putting it on track for a weekly loss of about 0.3%.
Conflicting signals surrounding the U.S.-Israel conflict involving Iran dampened Bitcoin’s earlier momentum, particularly as Washington and Tehran issued mixed messages about the prospects for a ceasefire.
Bitcoin is approaching a $14 billion options expiry on Friday, with most open positions set to settle on the Deribit exchange.
Market attention is firmly on potential price volatility before and after the expiry, particularly against the backdrop of heightened uncertainty driven by the Iran conflict.
According to Bloomberg, the “maximum pain” level—where the most options would expire worthless—is around $75,000. Large institutional players may try to steer prices toward this level to minimize payouts to option holders.
However, as contracts roll off, hedging activity in the near term is expected to decline, potentially leaving Bitcoin more vulnerable to external shocks, especially geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Although Bitcoin initially gained following the onset of the conflict nearly a month ago, it has struggled to break past the $75,000 mark. This comes after the cryptocurrency had already fallen by as much as 50% from its late-2025 peak near $126,000.
Much of the recent upward movement may also have been driven by hedging flows ahead of the options expiry.
Crypto price today
Cryptocurrency markets broadly moved lower on Friday, weighed down by mixed signals on a possible de-escalation in the Iran conflict, although prices stayed above their weekly lows.
Ether, the second-largest digital asset, fell 2.6% to $2,066.74, while XRP declined 1.7% to $1.3628. Solana and Cardano each dropped more than 3%, with BNB down about 1%.
Among memecoins, Dogecoin slipped 0.7%, while $TRUMP lost 1.1%.
Market sentiment improved slightly after U.S. President Donald Trump extended the deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s key energy infrastructure and signaled that talks with Tehran were ongoing.
Still, Iran said it was reviewing a 15-point ceasefire proposal from Washington and dismissed the prospect of direct negotiations.
Overall, the conflict showed few clear signs of easing as it entered its fifth consecutive week.
Cuba seeks Vatican help to ease the U.S. oil embargo, the Washington Post reports.
Cuban officials have asked the Vatican to help convince the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump to relax its oil embargo, raising the issue in high-level meetings with Vatican representatives, including Pope Leo, the Washington Post reported Friday, citing sources familiar with the discussions.
Reuters said it could not immediately confirm the report, and the Vatican, the White House, and the Cuban government did not respond to requests for comment.
Havana and Washington began talks earlier this month as the embargo intensifies economic pressures on the Communist-led country, with some reports indicating the Trump administration may be aiming to remove President Miguel Díaz-Canel from power.
Oil edges higher but is still on track for its first weekly drop since the Iran conflict began.
Oil prices rose on Friday but were still set for their first weekly decline since February 9, after U.S. President Donald Trump extended a pause on strikes against Iran’s energy facilities. Despite the temporary restraint, investors remain cautious about the chances of a ceasefire in the month-long conflict.
Brent crude climbed $1.87 (1.73%) to $109.88 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $1.57 (1.66%) to $96.05. Even so, both benchmarks were down on the week, with Brent slipping 2.1% and WTI losing 2.3%, though they have surged sharply since the conflict began.
Analysts noted that oil markets are being driven more by the potential duration of the war than short-term headlines, warning that any damage to infrastructure or prolonged fighting could push prices significantly higher. Trump has extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face further action, while the U.S. continues to build up military presence in the region and considers targeting key Iranian oil assets.
Iran has rejected a U.S. proposal relayed via Pakistan, calling it unfair. Meanwhile, the conflict has removed around 11 million barrels per day from global supply, worsening an already tight market. Analysts say prices could fall quickly if tensions ease, but remain elevated overall—or even spike to $200—if the war drags on into late June, as countries increasingly draw on reserves and adjust demand.
Bank of America expects the U.S. dollar to strengthen further in the second quarter.
Bank of America expects the U.S. dollar to stay strong in the near term, supported by elevated energy prices and shifting expectations around central bank policy. The bank has upgraded its FX outlook, now projecting EUR/USD at 1.14 and USD/JPY at 160 by the end of Q2, reflecting continued short-term dollar strength.
This revision comes as markets reassess the impact of the Middle East energy shock, with high oil prices and ongoing uncertainty boosting demand for the greenback. According to BofA strategists led by John Shin, rising energy costs and increasingly hawkish central banks—particularly the Federal Reserve—have played a key role in lifting the dollar.
The conflict in Iran has also reshaped currency outlooks, with the dollar likely to gain further, especially against currencies of energy-importing economies. BofA’s commodities team now expects Brent crude to average around $80 in 2026, reinforcing inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, expectations for central bank policy have shifted, with markets pricing in modest Fed tightening and multiple rate hikes from other G10 central banks. Whether these hikes materialize will be crucial for FX movements in the coming months.
BofA now sees dollar strength extending into Q2 rather than being confined to Q1, although it still anticipates a gradual weakening later in 2026 as energy markets stabilize. Longer term, the bank forecasts EUR/USD rising to 1.20 by year-end.
However, risks remain tied to the trajectory of the energy shock—prolonged disruption could drive further dollar gains, while a quicker resolution may lead to a pullback as geopolitical risk premiums fade.
U.S. Treasury plans to place Donald Trump’s signature on new dollar bills, breaking a 165-year tradition.
U.S. paper currency will begin carrying President Donald Trump’s signature this summer, marking the first time a sitting president has signed American banknotes, according to the Treasury Department. The change, tied to the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence, also ends a 165-year tradition by removing the U.S. treasurer’s signature from the bills.
The first redesigned $100 notes—featuring Trump’s signature alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—are set to be printed in June, with other denominations to follow. Existing notes bearing the signatures of former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Treasurer Lynn Malerba will remain in circulation for now.
Malerba will be the last treasurer to appear on U.S. currency, ending a practice that dates back to 1861. The update is part of broader efforts by the Trump administration to place the president’s name and likeness on national symbols, including a newly approved commemorative coin.
While the signatures will change, the overall design of U.S. banknotes will remain largely the same. Officials noted the Treasury has legal authority to adjust currency features, provided key elements—such as “In God We Trust” and portraits of deceased individuals—are preserved.
In our previous update, we noted that the S&P 500’s year-to-date performance had closely followed midterm election-year seasonality. When combined with our Elliott Wave analysis, we concluded that:
The decline was likely to bottom around $6,490 ± 10
A countertrend rally would begin once that low was in place, potentially reaching about $6,900 ± 100
This would likely be followed by another pullback, at minimum retracing 38.2% of the rally from the April low
As of now, the index appears to have behaved largely in line with that outlook. It bottomed on Friday at $6,473—just 7 points below the projected zone—and has since rebounded by roughly 2%.
However, given that the market seems to be undergoing a fourth-wave correction comparable in scale to the 2022 second-wave decline, it’s unlikely that such a modest pullback represents the entire correction. Elliott Wave theory suggests corrections typically unfold in at least three waves (a, b, and c).
As a result, while not impossible, it is unlikely that the correction has already completed. More plausibly, the red Wave A within the broader black Wave 4 has now formed its low.
Figure 1. Intermediate-term Elliott Wave count for the S&P 500 (SPX) since April 2025.
Because we prioritize what’s most probable rather than merely possible, we rely on a weight-of-the-evidence approach. In addition to seasonality, we assess a range of market breadth indicators.
Here, the McClellan Oscillator for the S&P 500 shows a higher low between the March 13 and March 20 price lows (see Figure 2). This indicates that fewer stocks were involved in the latest decline—a condition known as positive divergence (green dotted arrow), which is typically a bullish signal.
Moreover, the indicator had fallen to levels last seen during the April 2025 crash low, pointing to deeply oversold market breadth. Much like a stretched rubber band nearing its limit, such conditions often precede a rebound—another constructive signal for the market.
Figure 2. McClellan Oscillator for the S&P 500 since April 2025.
The second breadth indicator we analyze is the cumulative Advance–Decline line for the S&P 500 (SPX A/D), shown in Figure 3. So far, it has continued to hold above its upward-sloping blue dotted trendline from the April lows (black arrows), which is a constructive sign.
Earlier in 2025, a negative divergence between the index and the A/D line signaled the February–April correction (solid red and green arrows). In contrast, no such divergence has appeared recently. Instead, the A/D line has been rising while the index has been largely flat (dotted red and green arrows within the black box).
Moreover, the A/D line has now broken above its downtrend line that had been in place since early March (green arrow), adding another bullish indication.
Figure 3. Cumulative Advance–Decline (A/D) line for the S&P 500 since October 2025.
In summary, while price action remains the ultimate arbiter, key market breadth indicators are broadly supportive of a bullish outlook. At the same time, the index found a low precisely within the zone projected by our Elliott Wave and Fibonacci analysis.
As long as prices hold above Friday’s low, we anticipate the B-wave rebound to extend toward the $6,900 ± 100 area. However, if that level fails to hold, the next meaningful support lies in the mid-6,300s, where buyers may look to reestablish control.
Since fighting with Iran erupted on Feb. 28, energy stocks have stood out as some of the few consistent winners for bullish investors—until a social media post from President Trump triggered a drop in oil prices, dragging energy shares down with it. The episode underscored how fragile markets are right now, where even a single headline can spark sharp swings.
That’s why recent remarks from Chevron CEO Mike Wirth carry weight. He warned that markets may be underestimating the impact of potential supply disruptions, particularly if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz—a key route that typically handles about 20% of global oil flows . According to Wirth, pricing is being driven more by perception than solid information, even as investors are flooded with conflicting data.
Still, his view shouldn’t be dismissed as self-serving. With decades of operational experience in volatile regions like Venezuela, Wirth understands how deeply disruptions can affect supply chains—and how long it can take for markets to stabilize again.
As a result, even if oil avoids extreme scenarios—such as the $200-per-barrel projections floated by some analysts—consumers may still face elevated fuel prices for an extended period. For investors who missed the initial rally, opportunities may still exist, particularly across different segments of the energy sector.
Big Oil Momentum: Chevron at the Forefront in a Supply-Constrained Market
Among major oil companies, Chevron stands out as a top pick. Its stock (CVX) has surged nearly 33% in 2026, breaking out of a multi-year range that had held since 2022.
Much of this rally followed U.S. military actions in Venezuela, where Chevron uniquely maintains operations among international oil firms.
That said, investors may question whether the stock is vulnerable to a pullback if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz ease. Currently, CVX trades about 11% above its average analyst price target. Still, those targets are being revised upward, with the most optimistic call from Piper Sandler lifting its target to $242 from $179.
Over the past three years, Chevron has delivered roughly 50% total returns—modest for growth-focused investors, but notable given its reputation as a reliable dividend payer. Even after its recent rally, the stock offers a 3.5% yield, reinforcing its appeal as a blend of income and stability.
Refining Edge: Valero Benefits from Volatility and Expanding Margins
While Chevron represents upstream exposure, Valero Energy provides a different angle—pure refining. This makes it well-positioned even in volatile oil markets.
Unlike producers, refiners profit from the “crack spread,” or the gap between crude input costs and refined product prices. Supply disruptions that hurt producers can actually boost refining margins.
Valero, the world’s largest independent refiner, operates 15 facilities across North America and the U.K., giving it both scale and flexibility—especially valuable if supply routes shift due to geopolitical risks.
Its stock (VLO) has climbed over 45% in 2026, now trading about 20% above consensus targets. While somewhat extended, analysts continue to raise expectations. Meanwhile, investors benefit from a dividend yield near 2%, offering a mix of cyclical upside and income.
Midstream Stability: Enbridge Delivers Income with Volume-Driven Growth
Another way to play the energy rally is through midstream operators like Enbridge, which function more like toll collectors for oil and gas flows.
These companies earn fees based on volume rather than commodity prices—and volumes are currently near record highs in early 2026.
Enbridge is one of the largest pipeline operators in North America, with over 18,000 miles of infrastructure, transporting roughly 30% of the region’s crude oil and about 20% of U.S. natural gas demand.
Over the past three years, ENB has returned around 80%, highlighting the consistency of midstream performance. With a consensus price target implying nearly 20% upside and a dividend yield around 5.1%, Enbridge offers a compelling combination of steady income and moderate growth.
The dollar’s strength since the onset of the war is not surprising, but it is often misunderstood. The Dollar Index has climbed about 1.8% this month, following a smaller 0.65% gain in February after a 1.35% drop in January. Since hostilities began, the dollar has risen against all G10 currencies, with most—except the Canadian dollar and sterling—falling more than 1.5%. While this appears to reflect broad strength, it is equally a function of positioning, leverage, and rising US interest rates.
Reassessing Safe-Haven Flows
Two main forces are behind the dollar’s advance. The first is mechanical: short covering. For months, investors had used the dollar as a funding currency, borrowing cheaply in USD to invest in higher-yielding assets like Latin American bonds. When those risk trades reversed, positions were unwound and dollars were bought back, creating the illusion of safe-haven demand.
A similar process occurred among foreign investors in US equities. Many had hedged their dollar exposure while financing the US current account deficit. As US stocks declined, these investors sold equities and unwound dollar hedges—or found themselves over-hedged and adjusted accordingly. In both cases, the resulting demand for dollars was structural rather than discretionary.
The second driver is more traditional safe-haven demand. War reduces risk appetite, and with the US now a major energy producer, some investors view its economy as relatively shielded from oil shocks. While this argument holds some merit, it is likely to be less durable than the effects of positioning adjustments.
The Role of US Interest Rates
What is less widely recognized is how sharply US interest rates have risen, and how central this has been to the dollar’s strength. Since the war began, the two-year Treasury yield has increased by about 53 basis points, while the ten-year yield is up roughly 45 basis points. Although interest rate differentials typically matter, in the near term, the sheer rise in US rates appears to be a more decisive factor—especially as these increases are driven by inflation fears and supply shocks rather than optimism about growth.
Fed Expectations Shift
Expectations for Federal Reserve policy have also changed. Before the conflict, markets had fully priced in two rate cuts this year, with some probability of a third. Even after some repricing, at least one cut was still anticipated. However, while the Fed’s official statement had limited impact, Chair Powell’s press conference reshaped expectations. He downplayed projections showing stronger growth alongside steady unemployment and reiterated a cautious rate outlook.
Powell also acknowledged the Fed’s constraints, noting that missing inflation targets has become common and that the war complicates both inflation control and employment objectives.
Inflation Pressures Build
Meanwhile, rising fuel prices are shifting the political and economic landscape. Gasoline prices have increased daily since the war began, adding about $1 per gallon and pushing the national average close to $4. Grocery prices are also beginning to rise. This type of inflation is immediately felt by consumers and generates political pressure far more quickly than broader economic indicators.
Powell’s description of labor market “stability” also warrants scrutiny, given the loss of 92,000 jobs in February. He acknowledged that immigration policies are constraining labor force growth—adding to the effects of tariffs and war in limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates as aggressively as desired.
Powell further emphasized his intention to remain Fed Chair until a successor is confirmed and indicated he would not step down from his governor role during any ongoing investigation, framing this as a defense of institutional independence.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index peaked near 100.50 on March 13 and has since found support just below 99.00, trading around its 20-day moving average. Momentum indicators suggest some consolidation may be ahead. However, positioning is not yet extreme—euro longs have dropped sharply, and yen shorts have increased—indicating the adjustment process may not be complete, especially amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.
Outlook
The dollar is supported by both war-related demand and higher interest rates, but both factors depend on how the conflict evolves. The recently announced five-day pause is being met with skepticism, and risks of escalation remain, particularly with increased US military presence and speculation around strategic targets like Iran’s Kharg Island.
Until there is greater clarity, the dollar is likely to remain supported. However, once uncertainty fades, any reversal could unfold quickly—as has been seen in similar episodes before.
Bitcoin edged higher on Wednesday, staying above $71,000 as improving risk sentiment—driven by hopes of easing Middle East tensions—supported markets, even as Iran pushed back against a proposed U.S. ceasefire.
The leading cryptocurrency rose about 1.1% to $71,129.8 by late trading, recovering after briefly slipping below $70,000 earlier in the week when escalating conflict triggered a broader risk-off move.
Mixed signals from Washington and Tehran kept uncertainty elevated. President Donald Trump said the U.S. was in active discussions with Iran and suggested progress toward a deal, while reports pointed to a 15-point U.S. proposal aimed at ending the conflict. However, Iranian officials denied any formal negotiations, rejecting the ceasefire idea and instead calling for a complete end to the war, alongside conditions such as halting all attacks and securing recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite these contradictions, optimism over potential de-escalation weighed on oil prices, easing supply concerns and helping lift overall risk appetite—factors that have increasingly influenced Bitcoin’s price movements. The cryptocurrency’s earlier decline coincided with a surge in crude, highlighting its sensitivity to geopolitical and energy market shifts.
Even amid volatility, Bitcoin has shown resilience around the $70,000 mark, supported by ongoing institutional demand and improving liquidity.
In the U.K., the government announced new political funding rules, including caps on overseas donations and a ban on cryptocurrency contributions until proper regulations are in place—a move that could impact parties like Reform U.K., which had previously embraced bitcoin donations.
Elsewhere in crypto markets, most altcoins traded higher. Ethereum rose 1% to $2,166.45, XRP added 0.2%, while Solana and Cardano gained between 1.1% and 1.7%. Dogecoin also climbed 1.5%.
Oil prices inched up as Iran considers the U.S. plan to end the conflict.
Oil prices in Asia inched up on Thursday as mixed signals over Middle East de-escalation kept markets cautious, while Iran considered a U.S. proposal to end the conflict.
By 20:31 ET (00:31 GMT), May Brent crude rose 0.8% to $103.02 per barrel and WTI crude gained 1% to $91.20, after both benchmarks dropped more than 2% in the previous session.
Traders assessed tentative diplomatic developments from Tehran, where authorities are said to be reviewing a U.S.-supported plan to stop the fighting. Although Iran has yet to accept the proposal, it has not rejected it outright, fueling guarded optimism for easing tensions.
However, uncertainty remains high. Tehran has denied direct talks with Washington and signaled that major disagreements persist, leaving markets uneasy and price moves relatively muted.
Crude has seen sharp swings in recent weeks as the conflict disrupted supply flows from the Gulf, a key global oil hub. Earlier this month, Brent surged past $119 per barrel on concerns over potential supply outages.
The Strait of Hormuz—through which about one-fifth of global oil passes—remains a critical risk point, with any disruption likely to drive prices higher.
On Wednesday, prices fell as reports of possible negotiations eased some geopolitical risk premium. Meanwhile, investors are monitoring Washington’s stance, as officials warn of tougher action if Iran fails to engage, adding further uncertainty to the outlook.
Gold holds steady as markets weigh conflicting signals over potential de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran.
Gold prices were mostly stable in Asian trading on Thursday as investors navigated mixed signals surrounding the Iran conflict, while Tehran continued to assess a U.S. proposal to end the war.
Spot gold edged up 0.1% to $4,509.06 an ounce by 22:57 ET (02:57 GMT), while U.S. gold futures declined 1.1% to $4,536.10.
Bullion had recovered earlier in the week, climbing back above $4,500 after a sharp pullback, supported by a weaker dollar and cautious optimism over potential U.S.-Iran diplomacy.
Still, gains were limited as uncertainty persisted. Iran is reviewing a U.S.-backed plan to halt hostilities, but unclear signals on whether talks will advance have kept investors wary.
Although Tehran has not formally accepted the proposal, it has avoided rejecting it outright, fueling guarded hopes for de-escalation. At the same time, Iran has denied direct negotiations with Washington and emphasized that key differences remain unresolved, leaving markets uneasy.
The U.S. has also warned of tougher action if Iran fails to engage constructively, adding another layer of tension.
Gold—traditionally a safe-haven asset—has shown unusual volatility in recent weeks. Prices dropped sharply earlier this month despite rising geopolitical risks, as expectations of prolonged high interest rates and a stronger dollar weighed on demand.
Movements in oil prices have also influenced sentiment. Rising crude has heightened inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that central banks may keep rates elevated, which tends to pressure non-yielding assets like gold.
Wider financial markets reflected a cautious tone, with investors seeking clearer direction on both geopolitical developments and global monetary policy.
Among other precious metals, silver gained 0.1% to $71.32 an ounce, while platinum slipped 0.6% to $1,918.60.
The U.S. dollar rose slightly on Wednesday, rebounding from earlier losses as hopes for Middle East de-escalation faded after Iran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal.
At 17:45 ET (21:45 GMT), the U.S. Dollar Index—tracking the greenback against six major currencies—gained 0.2% to 99.62.
The United States has put forward a ceasefire proposal.
While there is some optimism that Washington and Tehran may be exploring ways to end the conflict, markets remain cautious as both sides continue to offer conflicting accounts of how negotiations are progressing.
Reportedly eager to find an exit from the war, President Donald Trump has backed a U.S. proposal outlining a 15-point peace plan to Iran. The plan not only calls for Tehran to dismantle its primary nuclear facilities but also urges the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical shipping route south of Iran that has been largely shut to tanker traffic in recent weeks. This disruption has pushed energy prices higher and raised concerns about global inflation.
According to Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie, investor optimism was revived by news that the U.S. had presented concrete terms to Iran. However, he cautioned that a ceasefire is unlikely in the near term. Instead, the U.S. may escalate military pressure over the next couple of weeks to push Iran toward meaningful concessions, with major combat potentially reaching a turning point by mid-April. He described the situation as entering a third phase — one defined by both negotiation and conflict, rather than purely one or the other.
Wizman added that the possibility of renewed negotiations signals a more critical stage in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Initially driven by diplomacy, then by direct confrontation, the situation may now evolve into a blend of both. While this dual-track approach could help stabilize market sentiment compared to outright war, it also carries the risk of sharper downside if it fails to deliver lasting stability and security.
Iran has pushed back against the proposal.
On Wednesday morning, the Fars News Agency reported that Tehran does not accept a ceasefire, emphasizing that it seeks a complete end to the conflict rather than a temporary halt in fighting.
Later, Press TV stated that Iran would not allow the United States to dictate when the war should end, citing a senior political figure. According to the report, the official outlined five key demands from Tehran, including a full cessation of attacks as well as international recognition and guarantees of Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
However, Axios later cited a U.S. official saying Washington had not received any formal communication from Iran rejecting the ceasefire plan.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also denied that negotiations with the U.S. were taking place, according to Reuters. While acknowledging that messages were being passed through intermediaries, he stressed that such exchanges should not be interpreted as formal talks.
In the energy market, Brent crude — the global benchmark — briefly dipped below $100 per barrel on Wednesday, though it remains significantly higher than the roughly $70 level seen before the conflict began in late February.
Rising concerns over energy-driven inflation have strengthened expectations that central banks worldwide may need to adopt a more hawkish policy stance. In Germany, ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that further tightening could be justified even if the inflation spike proves temporary.
The euro and yen edged higher on Wednesday, while sterling drew attention following the latest UK inflation figures.
The euro saw a slight uptick, with EUR/USD hovering around 1.1560. At the same time, the Japanese yen strengthened, pushing USD/JPY down to 159.33.
Sterling remained largely flat, trading near 1.3365 against the dollar, but came into focus after the release of new consumer inflation data. The UK’s consumer price index rose 3% year-on-year in March, unchanged from February. Notably, the data does not yet reflect the impact of rising oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict.
According to Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, the UK’s disinflation trend may be approaching a pause. He noted that February’s inflation reading is already outdated, as households and businesses are beginning to feel the effects of the Iran conflict, particularly through higher fuel costs. Further increases in fuel prices are expected, and even if the conflict ends quickly, energy bills — including electricity and gas — could still climb by double digits over the summer.
Gold is trying to stabilize, bolstered by a softer U.S. dollar and easing oil prices, as geopolitical tensions show signs of temporary relief. The recovery has pushed bullion toward the mid-$4,500s, suggesting the market is regaining balance after a recent sharp repricing.
The gold-to-silver ratio is drifting back toward the mid-60s, after dipping closer to 60 earlier in the week. This indicates relative strength in gold, while silver remains more sensitive to cyclical trends. Flows remain defensive, rather than shifting toward higher-beta exposure.
The context is key. Gold is emerging from a period where geopolitical stress failed to generate sustained demand. The prior repricing was driven by inflation expectations and policy positioning: energy-driven inflation reinforced bets on tighter monetary policy, strengthened the dollar, and increased the cost of holding non-yielding assets. This environment diverted capital away from bullion precisely when it would normally attract flows.
That dynamic still shapes the market. Gold is trading in a system where inflation, interest rates, and liquidity guide flows. As long as macro stress influences policy expectations, the market remains biased away from passive safe-haven accumulation.
From Macro Shock to Policy Transmission
Recent price action illustrates how macro shocks propagate. Geopolitical tensions and energy disruptions fed directly into inflation expectations, reinforcing the view that central banks might maintain restrictive conditions longer. This tightened financial conditions through both rates and a stronger dollar.
The current stabilization reflects a partial release of that pressure. A softer dollar and lower oil have eased the immediate inflation impulse, letting gold recover. The adjustment is mechanical—driven by easing inputs—without changing the broader framework guiding capital allocation.
Markets in this phase continuously reprice the balance between inflation risk and policy response. Gold follows this process rather than leading it. Until the transmission mechanism shifts away from inflation-driven tightening, rallies develop in a constrained environment, with selective liquidity and limited momentum.
The Renko Structure: Damage First, Stabilization Second
The Renko structure highlights the sequence clearly. Gold’s advance into the upper $4,500s reached an exhaustion zone just below $4,600, where upward momentum faded and supply returned. The subsequent pullback pierced the upper structure, removing the previous layer of support.
Gold is currently pivoting near $4,560, which now acts as a reference point within a rebalanced range rather than a springboard. Just below, $4,550–$4,551 offers the first structural support; a break here would reopen the path toward $4,525, where the structure becomes fragile and reactive.
Upside resistance begins at $4,575, the zone where the prior rebound failed, making it a test of market acceptance. Above that, the low $4,580s congestion band is the next checkpoint before the broader ceiling below $4,600, where sellers previously regained control.
The structure reflects a market stabilizing after lost momentum. Stabilization has formed, but directional strength has yet to reemerge.
Internal Conditions Show Compression
ECRO is at zero, signaling full compression: prior downside momentum is exhausted, and the current recovery has not generated a new expansion phase. Price is consolidating within defined boundaries as liquidity seeks alignment. Momentum indicators confirm the market has moved from active movement into controlled stabilization, limiting extensions beyond key levels without confirmation from broader flows.
What Needs to Change for a Stronger Move
A sustained rally requires continuity: maintaining the pivot near $4,560, reclaiming the upper barrier, and transforming it into acceptance. This would rebuild structure above prior rejection zones, signaling buyer commitment. Without this, rallies remain constrained, leaving the market exposed to renewed resistance at each layer.
Gold’s challenge lies in the environment rather than the metal itself. Inflation, interest rates, and liquidity continue to govern how demand translates into flows. Until that balance shifts, directional moves will struggle to sustain.
Final Read
Gold has exited active selling pressure and entered a stabilization phase. Both price structure and internal indicators reflect recalibration. Control has not yet returned. Compression dominates, keeping price within a range while direction remains unresolved. The next move will depend on flows re-establishing continuity above previously rejected levels.
Stabilization is present; leadership is still absent.
Oil dropping below $95 signals that the market is easing its worst-case fears, though the underlying structural risks remain. Gold’s rally points to a dovish policy interpretation, with traders anticipating a gentler rate path rather than outright risk hedging. Equities are following signs of easing inflation, yet the system remains fragile and sensitive to headlines.
Light at the End of the Tunnel
Asian traders woke to what feels like a soft glow at the tunnel’s end.
Oil has slipped below $95, equities are rising, yields are easing, and the dollar is softening as Washington’s diplomatic push starts to feel less like theatre and more like a path markets can tentatively follow. A 30-day ceasefire is no longer just a line in a briefing note—it’s starting to look like a trackable reality.
But this is still glow, not full daylight.
Crude’s decline reflects the market dimming emergency lighting, not declaring the room safe. Traders are beginning to believe the fire may be contained. The panic premium is being dialed down, not switched off. And that subtlety is where trades live or die.
The underlying system remains fragile. The Strait of Hormuz is still the key conduit for global energy flows, flickering under geopolitical tension. Confidence isn’t restored by proposals; it returns when flows run smoothly, insurance risks normalize, and barrels shed their geopolitical premium.
For now, the market follows the beam rather than stepping fully into the open.
Equities lean into it: S&P futures rise as lower oil feeds softer inflation expectations, easing central bank pressure and reopening the risk door. This is expectation-driven, not confirmation-driven.
Bond markets move cautiously. Yields edging lower show traders shading their views rather than rewriting them. The dollar eases as hedges trim slightly; risk isn’t gone, just loosened.
Gold, meanwhile, is stepping further into the light. It rallies not out of fear but in forward pricing—anticipating a softer policy path as oil slips and inflation pressures ease. Bullion is accumulating because markets see central banks nudged closer to a pivot.
This is the tell: when gold rises alongside equities and softer yields, the market isn’t just trading risk—it’s trading policy.
And yet, the barrel still holds the switch.
Even below $95, oil remains the power source for the macro grid. Diplomacy can dim the lights, but full power returns only when the physical system stabilizes. Gains won’t unwind because of negotiations; they unwind when supply chains flow, inventories rebuild, and disruption is no longer priced as baseline.
We’re not there yet.
What we see is the market cautiously walking toward the light: sentiment improving, volatility compressing, risk returning in measured doses. But the wiring underneath remains exposed.
The tunnel is visible. The way forward is clearer. But until that light becomes open sky, every step carries the risk of the switch being flipped back.
Most currency pairs are expected to trade in a range. The Dollar Index may stay within 98–101, while the Euro has broken above 1.16 and could extend to 1.1650–1.17 before pulling back. EURINR has surged due to Euro strength and Rupee weakness, potentially testing 110 before dipping. EURJPY may hold between 182–185, and USDJPY within 157–160. USDCNY remains stable in the 6.88–6.92 range. The Aussie and Pound may trade in 0.69–0.72 and 1.32–1.35 ranges, respectively. USDINR is likely to decline toward 93.25–93.00, with upside capped near 94.
US Treasury yields remain elevated but stable, with support limiting downside and preserving the broader uptrend. A short-term dip or consolidation is possible before yields resume their upward move. German yields may see a corrective decline before continuing higher. The 10-year GoI yield is trending up, with intermediate resistance suggesting a temporary dip before further rise.
Global equities have rebounded on easing Middle East tensions, though key resistance levels cap gains. The Dow has recovered but remains at risk of falling toward 45,000 while below 47,000. DAX has surpassed 23,000 but needs a break above 23,500 to sustain an uptrend; otherwise, it may slip toward 22,000. Nifty failed near 22,950 and requires a move above 23,000 to target 23,500–24,000, else downside toward 22,000 remains. Nikkei is gaining but stays bearish under 54,000, with potential to drop toward 50,000–48,000. Shanghai may extend gains to 4,000–4,100.
Crude oil is easing on reduced geopolitical tensions. Brent may decline to $90–$85 if it breaks $95, and WTI could fall to $82–$80 if it holds below $90–$88. Precious metals have rebounded: Gold may rise toward $4,800–$5,000 and Silver toward $78–$80. Copper remains weak under $5.70, potentially falling toward $5.00. Natural Gas is nearing support at $2.80, likely trading in a $2.80–$3.30 range if support holds.
Bitcoin ticked down on Tuesday, giving back some of the previous session’s gains as investors weighed the chances of easing tensions in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. The крупнейшая cryptocurrency slipped 0.4% to $70,475.6 by late afternoon trading.
According to Arthur Azizov of B2 Ventures, markets remain highly uncertain and need time to stabilize. He noted a growing perception that traditional assets are becoming more speculative than crypto—an unsettling signal for investors.
Reports suggest potential de-escalation underway
Reports after the U.S. market close suggested possible de-escalation efforts. Israeli Channel 12 said U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were exploring a ceasefire framework alongside a 15-point negotiation plan, while The New York Times indicated Washington had already sent a proposal to Iran. Earlier, President Donald Trump said strikes on Iran’s energy sector were being delayed following what he called productive talks. However, Iranian officials denied any negotiations, and conflicting headlines kept markets on edge, with oil prices rebounding sharply.
Investors remain concerned that prolonged high oil prices could fuel global inflation and prompt tighter monetary policy, which typically weighs on non-yielding, risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin and gold. Still, Bitcoin has held up better than gold since the conflict began, with the latter pressured by profit-taking after hitting record highs.
Bernstein says Bitcoin has likely hit its bottom
Bernstein analysts believe Bitcoin has already bottomed and is poised to move higher. They argue the recent pullback reflects a reset in sentiment rather than weakening fundamentals, noting the absence of systemic stress seen in previous downturns. The firm also highlighted Bitcoin’s roughly 25% outperformance versus gold since late February, reinforcing its appeal as a portable, censorship-resistant asset during geopolitical uncertainty.
Bernstein maintained an “outperform” rating and a $450 price target on Strategy, describing it as a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin exposure with a resilient balance sheet. The company, chaired by Michael Saylor, holds about 3.6% of total Bitcoin supply, worth around $53.5 billion.
Across the broader crypto market, prices mostly declined alongside Bitcoin. Ethereum edged down to $2,153.02, XRP fell 1.2%, and Solana dropped 1.1%, while Cardano rose 1.7%. Among memecoins, Dogecoin gained 0.4% and $TRUMP climbed 3.3%.
Gold rises on softer dollar, lower oil after U.S. proposal.
Gold surged more than 2% during Asian trading on Wednesday, driven by falling oil prices and a softer U.S. dollar. Hopes of a potential Middle East ceasefire eased inflation concerns, increasing the appeal of the metal.
Spot gold rose 2.3% to $4,577.55 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures climbed 4% to $4,611.70.
The move came as reports emerged that the United States had proposed a 15-point plan to Iran aimed at ending the conflict. President Donald Trump said negotiations were ongoing and noted that Iran appeared willing to reach a deal. However, Iranian officials denied any talks, underscoring continued uncertainty.
Oil prices dropped sharply after earlier gains fueled by supply disruption fears, with Brent crude slipping below $100 per barrel. This decline helped ease inflation expectations, reducing pressure on central banks to maintain high interest rates.
Lower energy prices also weighed on bond yields and the dollar—factors that typically support gold, which does not yield interest. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.2% in early trading.
Gold had recently been under pressure due to rising oil prices and bond yields, which strengthened the dollar and triggered a broader selloff in precious metals.
Despite the rebound, analysts warned that volatility is likely to continue, as markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East.
Elsewhere, silver jumped 3.3% to $73.60 per ounce, and platinum rose 2.2% to $1,977.60.
Oil drops on Middle East ceasefire hopes.
Oil prices dropped about 4% on Wednesday as hopes of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East raised expectations that supply disruptions from the region could ease. The decline followed reports that the U.S. had delivered a 15-point proposal to Iran aimed at ending the conflict.
Brent crude fell $4.89 (4.7%) to $99.60 per barrel, after hitting a low of $97.57. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped $3.54 (3.8%) to $88.81, touching as low as $86.72. This came after both benchmarks had surged nearly 5% in the previous session before trimming gains amid volatile trading.
Analysts said growing optimism over a ceasefire, along with profit-taking, pressured prices. However, uncertainty over whether negotiations will succeed continues to limit further declines.
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that progress was being made in talks with Iran, while sources confirmed Washington had sent a detailed settlement plan. Reports also suggested the U.S. is pushing for a temporary ceasefire to facilitate discussions, including measures such as curbing Iran’s nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite this, some analysts remain cautious, warning that Middle East developments will continue to drive price swings in the near term.
The conflict has severely disrupted oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for roughly one-fifth of global supply—creating what the International Energy Agency has described as an unprecedented supply shock.
Even if a ceasefire is reached and flows resume, experts say it is unclear how quickly production will fully recover, especially without confidence in a lasting agreement.
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts continue, with Pakistan offering to host negotiations, and Iran indicating that non-hostile vessels may pass through the Strait if coordinated with its authorities. Still, military activity in the region persists, and the U.S. is reportedly preparing to deploy additional troops.
To offset disruptions, Saudi Arabia has ramped up exports via its Red Sea Yanbu port to nearly 4 million barrels per day.
In the U.S., inventory data added further pressure to prices, with crude stocks rising by 2.35 million barrels, gasoline up 528,000 barrels, and distillates increasing by 1.39 million barrels last week, according to industry estimates.
The dollar climbed on Tuesday, recovering from the previous session’s decline as uncertainty surrounding U.S.–Iran peace negotiations dampened sentiment and boosted demand for safe-haven assets.
The greenback showed little response to an unverified media report released after the Wall Street close, which suggested a potential ceasefire between the two countries.
As of 17:49 ET (21:49 GMT), the U.S. Dollar Index—measuring the currency against a basket of six major peers—rose 0.3% to 99.23.
Dollar rebounds amid persistent uncertainty
The dollar regained ground as uncertainty continued to dominate market sentiment. On Monday, Donald Trump stated that he would postpone potential strikes on Iran’s energy facilities for five days following what he described as “very positive and productive” discussions aimed at ending the nearly month-long conflict. His remarks initially pressured the dollar, pushing it to its lowest level in almost two weeks.
However, sentiment shifted on Tuesday as conflicting media reports emerged regarding developments in the Middle East. Iran’s parliamentary speaker dismissed Trump’s claims, accusing him of fabricating the talks to calm volatile financial markets.
Later, Trump told reporters that negotiations were still underway and asserted that Iran had agreed to forgo developing nuclear weapons. He also noted that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance were involved in the discussions.
Following the close of Wall Street, Israel’s Channel 12 reported that U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and businessman Jared Kushner were working on a framework to establish a ceasefire and initiate negotiations based on a 15-point plan. Meanwhile, The New York Times reported that the U.S. had already delivered a proposal to Iran aimed at ending the conflict.
Despite these developments, hostilities in the Middle East continue, with the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial passage south of Iran through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows—effectively closed. The strait remains a major flashpoint, as the risk of Iranian attacks on vessels threatens to disrupt vital energy shipments, particularly to key Asian importers.
Analysts at ING noted that the dollar remains highly sensitive to evolving headlines surrounding the conflict. They added that markets are closely watching for signals—especially from Iran—on whether meaningful ceasefire negotiations could begin. Until clearer progress emerges, any sustained rally in risk assets or significant decline in the dollar is likely to remain limited.
Euro and sterling steady; yen in spotlight after Japan inflation data
The euro and British pound remained largely stable on Tuesday, with EUR/USD edging slightly higher to 1.1607 and GBP/USD ticking up to 1.3409.
Meanwhile, the dollar posted modest gains against the Japanese yen after fresh data showed Japan’s inflation slowed more than expected in February. Core inflation dropped below the central bank’s target for the first time in four years, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan may adopt a more cautious approach toward further monetary tightening.
Analysts at ING noted that the central bank is likely to look past the recent slowdown in inflation and instead focus on potential upside risks to prices.
They added that strong wage negotiation outcomes and firmer-than-expected PMI readings could still support the case for an interest rate hike as early as April. However, the exact timing remains uncertain and may depend on evolving geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East.
Bitcoin surged on Monday as investor appetite for risk improved amid hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East.
Donald Trump highlighted “productive” discussions with Iran and announced that the U.S. would delay planned strikes on Iranian energy facilities for five days. Following these remarks, Bitcoin climbed 4.5% to $70,947.6 after previously trading lower.
However, Iran’s Fars News Agency denied any form of communication with the U.S., stating that no direct or indirect talks had taken place. The report also suggested that Washington’s decision to postpone strikes came after Iran warned it would retaliate by targeting energy infrastructure across West Asia.
Donald Trump highlights “productive” talks, raising hopes for a potential end to the conflict.
Donald Trump claimed that the U.S. had held “productive” discussions with Iran, suggesting a potential path toward ending the conflict. In a social media post, he said both sides had made progress toward a “complete and total resolution” and announced a five-day delay in planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
However, officials in Tehran denied that any talks had taken place. Iran’s foreign ministry reiterated that its stance on the Strait of Hormuz and the conditions for ending the conflict remain unchanged.
Reports from The Wall Street Journal, citing Fars News Agency, also stated there had been no direct or indirect communication between the two sides. According to Fars, the U.S. decision to hold off on strikes came after Iran warned it would retaliate by targeting similar infrastructure across West Asia.
Trump later told reporters that the discussions had gone very well and that there was a strong possibility of reaching an agreement, though he emphasized that no outcome was guaranteed.
Meanwhile, Justin Wolfers from the University of Michigan highlighted the uncertainty facing financial markets—whether to trust U.S. statements about negotiations or Iran’s denials.
Earlier, Trump had warned that Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face military action. In response, Tehran threatened to shut down the waterway entirely and target key energy and water infrastructure in Gulf countries if attacked.
Bitcoin outperforms gold as geopolitical tensions and interest rate concerns weigh more heavily on the precious metal.
Bitcoin has outperformed gold and other precious metals this month since the conflict began, with bullion attracting limited demand despite rising geopolitical tensions.
Bitcoin has gained nearly 6% in March, while spot gold has dropped around 17%. The precious metal came under pressure after hitting a record high in late January, triggering profit-taking and a broader unwinding of long positions.
Even with the escalation involving Iran, gold failed to see strong safe-haven inflows, as concerns over persistent inflation and higher interest rates outweighed its appeal. In contrast, Bitcoin benefited from improving U.S. regulatory sentiment and renewed buying interest after previously falling as much as 50% from its October peak.
However, on a year-to-date basis, gold still leads, rising about 2% compared to Bitcoin’s roughly 19% decline.
Across the broader crypto market, gains followed Bitcoin’s move higher after Donald Trump’s announcement. Ethereum climbed 5.6%, while XRP rose 4.3%. Other major tokens including BNB, Solana, and Cardano also posted gains, alongside memecoins like Dogecoin.
Gold prices continued to decline for a tenth consecutive session during Asian trading on Tuesday, as Iran denied engaging in talks with the U.S. following Donald Trump’s decision to delay further strikes on Iranian energy facilities.
Spot gold dropped 1.3% to $4,351.28 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $4,399.59. The postponement of military action by Washington helped ease broader market tensions and led to a sharp decline in oil prices, allowing gold to recover slightly in the previous session.
Trump had earlier delayed plans to target Iran’s power grid, citing “productive” discussions, but Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf dismissed these claims, stating that no such talks had occurred—adding uncertainty to the situation.
Despite typically being seen as a safe-haven asset, gold has struggled amid shifting macroeconomic expectations. Rising energy costs have fueled concerns about persistent inflation, prompting investors to scale back expectations of interest rate cuts.
As a result, central banks—including the Federal Reserve—are now expected to maintain higher interest rates for longer, which tends to pressure gold prices since it does not generate interest.
Other precious metals also declined, with silver falling 1.5% and platinum slipping 0.3%.
The U.S. dollar declined on Monday, giving up earlier gains as investors reacted to President Donald Trump’s remarks about “productive” discussions with Iran. By 17:15 ET (21:15 GMT), the dollar index—measuring the greenback against six major currencies—had dropped 0.5% to 99.13.
Optimism over easing tensions spreads across global markets.
Hopes of easing tensions spread across global markets. Wall Street posted strong gains, while oil prices plunged after Trump decided to delay missile strikes on key Iranian infrastructure, citing progress in talks with Tehran. In a social media update, he said discussions aimed at achieving a “complete and total resolution” to the conflict.
Trump noted that, based on the positive tone of the talks—which are expected to continue—he had ordered the Pentagon to postpone any military action against Iranian energy facilities for five days. However, Iranian state media denied that any direct negotiations had taken place with the U.S. Officials in Tehran maintained their stance on the Strait of Hormuz and reiterated that their conditions for ending the conflict remain unchanged.
Reports from the The Wall Street Journal, citing Iran’s Fars news agency, also indicated there had been no communication between the two sides. According to Fars, the U.S. decision to step back from targeting Iranian energy sites followed warnings from Iran about potential retaliation across West Asia.
Speaking to reporters, Trump said the talks had gone “very well” and suggested there was a serious chance of reaching an agreement, though he stopped short of making any guarantees.
Market analysts expressed uncertainty over how to interpret the situation. David Morrison from Trade Nation noted that the developments add volatility to trading, especially given the high stakes involved. He also suggested that the lack of clearly defined war objectives may allow the U.S. to step back while claiming success—though Iran has framed the move as a retreat following its warnings.
The euro, pound, and yen showed little movement.
In currency markets, the euro and pound showed little movement, while the yen remained steady. European markets ended higher, supported by optimism that reduced tensions could stabilize energy supplies. This is particularly important for Europe, which depends heavily on oil and gas from the Middle East.
Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global energy supply passes—as well as attacks on gas infrastructure in Qatar, have recently weighed on the region. Meanwhile, Japan’s currency has also been pressured by rising oil prices, as the country relies on crude imports passing through the same route.
This week, markets will be closely watching developments in the Iran conflict, movements in oil prices, and changes in global government bond yields.
Ondas is recommended as a buy for traders who are comfortable with high-risk, high-reward situations, especially with earnings approaching.
PDD is suggested as a sell because its slowing growth and looming regulatory challenges likely outweigh any short-term upside, particularly ahead of its fourth‑quarter earnings release.
U.S. stocks fell sharply on Friday, with the S&P 500 ending at a six-month low, as tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, fueling concerns about inflation and the likelihood of rising interest rates.
The major U.S. stock indexes recorded their fourth consecutive week of losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.9%, the Nasdaq Composite slid 2.1%, and the Russell 2000 lost 1.7%.
Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28, the S&P 500 has declined 5.4%, the Nasdaq is down 4.5%, and the Dow has fallen nearly 7%. All three benchmarks are trading below their 200-day moving averages, highlighting the recent weakening of market sentiment.
In the coming week, attention will continue to focus on oil prices, global bond yields, and developments in Iran.
U.S. economic releases are expected to be relatively light, with reports on manufacturing, services activity, and initial jobless claims scheduled for the week ahead.
Notable companies such as Carnival and Chewy are scheduled to release their earnings this week.
Additionally, a major energy conference in Houston, featuring leading executives from the global industry, may capture Wall Street’s focus.
Below, I outline one stock recommended for purchase and one to consider selling for the week of Monday, March 23, through Friday, March 27.
Recommended Buy: Ondas
Ondas, a company specializing in private wireless networks and drone solutions, is scheduled to report its latest earnings this week. The firm is active in high-growth areas such as industrial automation and critical infrastructure, sectors that are rapidly embracing advanced wireless technologies.
Ondas will release its Q4 results on Wednesday, with a conference call set for 8:00 AM ET. Based on options market activity, investors are anticipating a potential move of roughly ±10% in ONDS shares following the announcement.
Ondas has already released updated preliminary results, reporting Q4 revenue of $29.1 million to $30.1 million—exceeding prior guidance of $27–$29 million—driven by strong demand in defense, homeland security, and critical infrastructure applications.
The company anticipates Q4 net income between $82.9 million and $83.4 million, with full-year net income projected at $50.4 million to $50.9 million, surpassing earlier estimates.
Management also reaffirmed its ambitious 2026 revenue target of $170–$180 million (excluding potential acquisitions), backed by a growing backlog and recent defense contract wins, including border protection systems and counter-drone solutions.
ONDS recently traded near $10, closing at $10.06 on Friday, following a pullback accompanied by strong trading volume. After an extraordinary one-year rally of roughly +1,300%, Ondas is now consolidating within a high-volatility symmetrical triangle. The stock is trading between $9.50 (rising support, aligned with the 50% Fibonacci retracement) and $11.50 (falling resistance), with the triangle nearly 80% complete.
This technical pattern indicates potential for a favorable earnings-driven move if the final results align with preliminary figures and guidance remains intact.
Trade Setup:
Entry: $9.95 – $10.25
Target: $12.00 (~20% potential gain)
Stop-Loss: $9.35 (~6.5% risk)
Recommended Sell: PDD
In contrast, PDD Holdings, the parent company of Pinduoduo and Temu, heads into earnings week amid a pronounced downtrend. Despite strong growth in recent years, PDD faces increasing headwinds, including intensifying competition in China’s e-commerce market and rising global regulatory scrutiny, which could weigh on investor sentiment.
The company is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter results before the market opens on Wednesday. Options markets imply a potential ±6% move in the stock following the earnings release, highlighting the risk of an earnings miss.
Analysts expect year-over-year growth in both EPS and revenue, but recent quarters have fallen short, and the company faces broader challenges.
Temu’s rapid international expansion has driven up marketing expenses, potentially weighing on profitability. Additionally, PDD operates in a tightly regulated environment in both China and overseas, with recent scrutiny on data privacy and trade practices posing further risks.
Against this backdrop, even strong revenue results may not reassure investors if management provides cautious guidance or commentary, or if margins are pressured by ongoing subsidies and high marketing costs.
PDD has dropped nearly 25% over the past year, closing at $96.19 on Friday. The stock recently broke below key multi-month support at $97.00, signaling a textbook bearish breakdown.
Technical indicators reinforce the downtrend: the price is trading below all major moving averages (20-, 50-, and 200-day), the SuperTrend is red at $106.42, and the Ichimoku Cloud confirms a bearish outlook, with the next potential support zone around $90–$92.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Near current levels (~$96)
Target: $87 (~9.5% potential gain)
Stop-Loss: $102 (~6.2% risk)
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
Bitcoin trades just under $68,000 on Monday, marking a decline of more than 6% compared to last week.
Ethereum has broken below a key support level, raising the risk of a deeper pullback.
XRP continues its downward trend, recording seven straight bearish candles.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) remain under pressure on Monday after posting weekly losses of over 6%, 5%, and 4%, respectively. BTC has fallen below the $68,000 mark, while ETH and XRP are trading beneath key support levels. The three leading cryptocurrencies are beginning to show signs of weakness following these breakdowns, suggesting the potential for a deeper correction in the days ahead.
Bitcoin shows early signs of bearish momentum
Bitcoin is trading around $68,000 on Monday, with short-term sentiment tilting slightly bearish. The price continues to stay below the upper boundary of its channel near $72,600 while finding support around $65,900, indicating that sellers remain active during rallies within the current downward structure. Additionally, daily closes are still well below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which lie between $72,000 and $78,000, reinforcing the view that the market is undergoing a corrective phase within a broader range.
Momentum has weakened, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart dropping toward the mid-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below its signal line and continues drifting toward the zero level—both signaling fading bullish strength after the rejection above $72,000.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near the recent swing high around $69,000, followed by the channel ceiling just below $72,600. This area is further reinforced by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, creating a strong supply zone. A daily close above this confluence would be required to neutralize the current bearish bias and pave the way for a move toward $73,500 and higher.
To the downside, key support lies near the channel base around $65,900. A breakdown below this level could open the door to $64,000 and then $62,500, where previous demand zones and the lower boundary of the recent range may draw in buyers.
Ethereum deepens its pullback after failing to hold key support
Ethereum is trading around $2,048 on Monday, with the short-term outlook remaining mildly bearish as price stays below the channel ceiling near $2,148. The asset continues to trade well under the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, positioned around $2,200 and $2,470, highlighting persistent downside pressure after the recent rebound failed to hold above $2,100.
Momentum indicators point to further weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has eased to around 45, reflecting fading bullish strength, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below its signal line and turned negative, signaling increasing selling pressure.
On the upside, initial resistance is located near the channel top around $2,148, reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $1,747.80 to $3,402.89 at $2,138. A decisive daily close above this zone could open the path toward the 38.2% retracement at $2,380, which aligns with the 50-day EMA and would help weaken the current bearish structure.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the $2,000 level, followed by the channel base and a key horizontal floor near $1,747. A break below this region would likely accelerate the broader decline, paving the way for a deeper move within the prevailing downtrend.
XRP records seven straight bearish sessions
XRP is trading below $1.39 as of Monday, continuing to move within a descending parallel channel that originated from the $2.83 peak. The price remains closer to the lower boundary near $1.09 than the upper limit around $1.90, keeping the broader outlook firmly bearish. Daily closes also sit well beneath the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, positioned between $1.49 and $1.67, reinforcing persistent downside pressure as rebounds struggle to test these dynamic resistance levels.
Momentum indicators reflect weakening strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to around 43, staying below the midpoint and signaling subdued bullish momentum after the recent attempt to rise toward $1.54. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is trending toward the zero line, with the MACD line converging toward its signal line and a shrinking positive histogram—both suggesting fading upside momentum within the broader downtrend.
On the downside, initial support is located near $1.30, a prior horizontal level that acts as the last meaningful cushion before the channel floor around $1.09. A break below this area could trigger a deeper decline within the prevailing bearish structure.
To the upside, immediate resistance appears near the recent swing high around $1.45, followed by the psychological $1.50 level, where selling pressure aligns with the descending 50-day EMA. A daily close above this zone would be necessary to target the channel’s upper boundary near $1.90, which also coincides with a key long-term resistance level and would be critical in reversing the medium-term bearish bias.
Gold remains firmly under bearish pressure for another week, kicking off Monday with the yellow metal once again eyeing a test of the $4,300 level. The decline is driven by ongoing Middle East tensions, higher US Treasury yields, and a stronger US dollar.
Fundamental Analysis
Gold has fallen around 3% in Monday’s Asian session, building on last week’s decline of over 10% as key support levels continue to give way.
Gold: Escalating Gulf conflict lifts USD
Selling pressure on Gold remains relentless, with the metal weighed down by renewed strength in the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields as tensions in the Middle East enter a more intense phase.
Gold is facing a dual headwind, losing its appeal as a safe-haven asset while the US dollar strengthens in its role as the world’s primary reserve currency, making dollar-denominated bullion less attractive for foreign investors.
At the same time, the latest escalation in the conflict has reignited fears of energy supply disruptions and rising inflation, increasing expectations of global interest rate hikes. This has pushed US Treasury yields higher, further pressuring non-yielding assets like Gold.
International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol warned that global oil supply losses could reach 11 million barrels per day—surpassing the shocks of 1973 and 1979 combined.
Markets were further unsettled as tensions between the United States and Iran intensified, with threats exchanged over the Strait of Hormuz and potential strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure, while Israel signaled plans for extended military operations.
Israel’s military confirmed it has launched a large-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure in Tehran. Meanwhile, reports suggest the US is considering a ground operation aimed at seizing Iran’s Kharg Island.
If the confrontation between the US and Iran escalates further, broader market sell-offs could accelerate, potentially forcing investors to liquidate Gold positions to cover losses in other assets.
That said, Gold may see a temporary bounce if a technical rebound emerges, as the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains deeply oversold, below the 30 threshold.
Technical Analysis
The near-term outlook has shifted bearish as price breaks decisively below both the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), signaling a disruption of the prior uptrend structure. The 21-day SMA has turned lower and now acts as immediate resistance near $5,035, while the 50-day SMA, flattening around $4,970, further reinforces downside pressure.
Despite this pullback, the asset continues to trade well above the upward-sloping 100-day and 200-day SMAs, located near $4,610 and $4,095 respectively, suggesting the current move remains a sharp correction within a broader bullish trend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 26, entering oversold territory and indicating stretched bearish momentum.
In the short term, resistance is seen at the former breakdown zone around $4,650, followed by stronger resistance at the 21-day SMA near $5,035. A daily close above this level would be required to signal a potential stabilization and could open the door for a move toward the 50-day SMA near $4,970, helping to ease immediate downside risks.
On the downside, immediate support lies around $4,360. A break below this level would expose the psychological $4,300 area, where the rising 100-day SMA may attract dip-buying interest. Failure to hold this zone would shift focus toward the 200-day SMA near $4,095, which remains a critical support level for maintaining the longer-term bullish structure.
The euro climbed during the week, testing the 1.16 level as both central banks tied to this pair held their meetings. However, the key takeaway is that the Federal Reserve is likely to stay more hawkish than previously expected, increasing the chances that the US dollar will remain stronger for an extended period.
In fact, by Friday, even though the ECB had sounded somewhat more hawkish than expected, there were already signs of a shift in tone, with ECB member Villeroy indicating that a rate cut cannot be ruled out.
Ongoing concerns over energy in the European Union also add downside risk—if energy issues persist, economic growth could slow. As a result, the euro may remain under pressure, with any short-term rallies likely to face selling pressure.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver prices dropped sharply over the week as rising U.S. interest rates weighed on the market, and that trend is likely to continue. As the week comes to a close, the focus is on holding above the $70 level—a key round number that carries strong psychological importance and is being closely watched by traders.
If the market breaks below this support level, it could trigger significant selling pressure, potentially driving prices toward $65, and over the longer term, even down to $50.
Overall, this is a market that may be hard to navigate, and it’s unlikely to see consistent upward momentum unless U.S. interest rates begin to stabilize.
Gold (XAU/USD)
The gold market is likely to behave similarly to silver, with the key difference being its safe-haven appeal. Because of that, gold may outperform silver—and frankly, that’s what I expect to happen.
That said, outperformance is relative, and this week’s candlestick looks quite weak. I’d be watching the 4,500 level closely, with the 4,400 area below it acting as additional support.
Any rally from here is likely to face selling pressure sooner or later, with 5,000 serving as a near-term ceiling. It’s only when U.S. interest rates fall meaningfully that gold can resume a stronger upward move. Still, looking at the longer-term charts, gold could drop another 1,000 and remain within a broader uptrend.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin initially attempted a breakout during the week but is having trouble holding above the 72,000 level. Still, it remains within a formation that suggests a possible reversal, although—like other markets—the outcome will largely depend on U.S. interest rates.
If interest rates remain exceptionally high, it’s hard to see Bitcoin—being a high-risk asset—performing strongly in that environment.
That said, I’m not expecting Bitcoin to collapse, but any upward move is likely to be gradual rather than sharp. If the trend is positive, it will probably be more of a slow grind higher than a rapid rally.
GBP/USD
The British pound climbed over the week, reaching up to test the key 1.35 level before pulling back. Overall, the market is likely to remain quite volatile, with the 1.3250 level acting as a support zone.
It seems that traders are continuing to sell the British pound whenever signs of exhaustion appear, especially as ongoing energy concerns in the United Kingdom weigh on sentiment.
There is a strong possibility that the US dollar could strengthen against the pound, pushing this pair lower. If the price falls below the 1.32 level, it may head toward the 200-week EMA, which is currently around 1.30. I have little interest in buying the pound at the moment, even though it may still perform better than several of its peers against the US dollar.
USD/CHF
The US dollar is trading choppily against the Swiss franc, hovering around the 0.79 level. If the price manages to break above this week’s high, it could pave the way for a move toward the 0.81 level.
If the price breaks below this week’s low, the market could decline toward the 0.77 level. Overall, this is likely to remain a choppy and noisy environment.
With US interest rates rising, the market tends to favor safe-haven flows, while the Swiss National Bank may step in if the franc strengthens excessively. Given these opposing forces, I expect the pair to eventually move higher.
NASDAQ 100
The Nasdaq 100 attempted to move higher during the week but encountered resistance around the 25,000 level. After reversing and showing weakness, the market now appears to be testing the 23,800 level.
Given this situation, the market appears vulnerable to a deeper downside move. The 50-week EMA sits near the 23,800 level, and a break below that could trigger significant selling pressure. While short-term bounces may occur, a sustained move above 25,000 would be needed for buyers to regain control and target higher levels. For now, elevated interest rates continue to weigh on overall risk sentiment.
DAX
In Germany, the DAX initially attempted to rally but has since broken down decisively, appearing to lose key support. Rising German interest rates, combined with a broader risk-off environment and ongoing energy challenges across Europe, continue to heavily influence the market’s direction.
With liquefied natural gas and oil continuing to pose challenges, this market will likely need time to establish support at lower levels. Before that happens, however, it could potentially decline toward the 20,000 mark.
For years, financial elites have brushed off gold as an unproductive asset—an inert yellow metal that generates no income and seems out of place in a fast-moving, digital economy. But by 2026, that long-standing view is beginning to lose credibility.
As the image of the “almighty U.S. dollar” starts to crack under the weight of a federal deficit exceeding $38 trillion—and still rising uncontrollably—gold is no longer just a hedge. It is increasingly seen as a primary escape route from a global era of fiscal excess.
The strongest argument for gold today doesn’t lie in consumer demand like jewelry, but in central bank behavior. Since the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine, a clear message has emerged. Many countries, especially in the Global South and BRICS+, are growing wary of holding U.S. Treasury assets that can be restricted or liquidated instantly.
This shift goes beyond simple de-dollarization—it signals a deep, structural reallocation of global capital. When central banks accumulate gold at record levels, they are not chasing short-term gains; they are securing financial independence. Gold stands apart as the only major asset that is not someone else’s liability.
Meanwhile, sovereign debt dynamics have moved from troubling to almost absurd. With debt-to-GDP ratios at extreme levels, major economies are stuck in a dilemma: raising interest rates enough to curb inflation risks making their debt burdens unmanageable.
As a result, real interest rates are likely to remain low or even negative—conditions that have historically favored gold. When inflation erodes the returns of supposedly “safe” government bonds, gold’s lack of yield becomes far less of a disadvantage and even appealing.
There’s a certain irony in this moment. As technology enables the creation of endless digital assets and AI-generated content, tangible assets like gold are gaining renewed appeal among both institutional and individual investors. Governments can expand debt or issue digital currencies at will, and AI can produce limitless synthetic content—but gold remains constrained by physical reality.
It cannot be created out of thin air. Annual mine production increases global supply by only about 1.5% to 2%, and the total amount of gold ever mined—around 212,000 tons—would fill just a few Olympic-sized swimming pools.
In a world marked by uncertainty, where even truth feels scarce, investors are gravitating toward something real—an asset that requires human effort, heavy machinery, and time to produce, and one that has consistently preserved value throughout history.
The bullish case for gold is not based solely on doomsday fears. It reflects a deeper issue: the erosion of sound financial systems, manageable debt levels, and trust in institutions. As that trust weakens, gold tends to rise.
At roughly $5,060 per ounce, gold’s recent performance—illustrated through instruments like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)—shows a powerful surge, supported by strong volume and capital inflows. This movement suggests more than simple hedging; it indicates a strategic shift toward safeguarding wealth against potential systemic shocks.
Interestingly, while technical analysts might interpret the chart as signaling a sell, such a view overlooks a key imbalance: even the largest corporations, despite their substantial cash reserves, are dwarfed by the scale of global sovereign debt.
The scale of the debt-versus-gold imbalance is striking. Companies in the S&P 500 collectively hold an estimated $2.5 to $3 trillion in cash and equivalents, according to J.P. Morgan. While that figure appears substantial, it represents just about 5% of the total debt owed by the G7 economies.
The G7—comprising the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, along with the broader European Union—sits at the center of the global financial system. The U.S. alone, with an economy valued at roughly $30–32 trillion, accounts for about 26% of global GDP, which the IMF estimates at $123.6 trillion in 2026.
Yet the U.S. national debt has climbed to $38.87 trillion as of March 2026 and continues to grow at a pace of around $7 billion per day. At this trajectory, it is expected to surpass $40 trillion within the year.
This has pushed the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio to approximately 123%, meaning federal debt exceeds the size of the entire economy by 23%. Such levels are near post–World War II highs and far above historical norms—an indication of growing fiscal strain. Despite this, there appears to be little political momentum to curb spending, with policymakers instead signaling further expansion.
Looking beyond the U.S., the broader picture is equally concerning. Combined sovereign debt across G7 nations now stands at roughly $65 trillion, with no coordinated effort to rein in deficits or reduce spending.
If this trajectory continues, the long-term consequences for fiat currencies could be severe. A system increasingly burdened by unsustainable debt risks eventual disruption, potentially leading to a profound global financial reset. In such a scenario, gold could continue its upward trajectory, with projections pointing toward $6,000 per ounce as a plausible next milestone.
The US dollar weakened over the week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling back below the 100 mark to around 99.60 by Friday, after a midweek boost following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Meanwhile, the conflict in Iran has entered its third week, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, keeping oil prices elevated. Reports of the Pentagon sending thousands more Marines to the region point to a prolonged standoff. At the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that inflationary pressures may still build further.
EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.1550 level after hitting new lows for 2026 earlier in the week, despite the European Central Bank’s hawkish stance, with markets now assigning an 85% chance of a rate hike this year.
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3330 after the Bank of England kept rates unchanged on Thursday but hinted that further tightening could be necessary if energy-led inflation continues.
USD/JPY is holding close to 159.30, with the yen gaining support as the Bank of Japan signaled a return to policy normalization.
AUD/USD is sitting around 0.7010 following a second straight rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia, though broader risk-off sentiment is still weighing on the currency.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is near $98 per barrel, close to weekly highs, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold dropped sharply to $4,583 amid a heavy selloff driven by rising Treasury yields and forced liquidations of leveraged positions, overwhelming any safe-haven demand linked to the conflict.
Upcoming economic outlook: Key voices to watch
Monday, March 23:
ECB’s Escrivá
ECB’s Cipollone
ECB’s Lane.
Tuesday, March 24:
RBNZ’s Breman
ECB’s Kocher
ECB’s Sleijpen
ECB’s Cipollone
ECB’s Nagel
ECB’s Lane
Fed’s Barr
Wednesday, March 25:
ECB’s President Lagarde
ECB’s Lane
BoE’s Greene
Fed’s Miran
Thursday, March 26:
ECB’s De Guindos
BoE’s Breeden
BoE’s Greene
BoE’s Taylor
Fed’s Cook
Fed’s Miran
Fed’s Jefferson
Fed’s Logan
Fed’s Barr
Friday, March 27:
Fed’s Daly
Fed’s Paulson
ECB’s Schnabel
Saturday, March 28:
ECB’s Cipollone
These scheduled speeches and appearances from central bank officials across the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be closely watched for signals on inflation, interest rates, and policy direction amid ongoing global uncertainty.
Key economic data and central bank signals shaping policy outlook
Monday, March 23:
Eurozone March Consumer Confidence (Preliminary)
Australia March S&P Global PMIs (Preliminary)
Japan February Consumer Price Index
Tuesday, March 24:
Eurozone March HCOB PMIs (Preliminary)
UK March S&P Global PMIs (Preliminary)
US ADP Employment Change
US Q4 Nonfarm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
US March S&P Global PMIs (Preliminary)
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Wednesday, March 25:
Australia February Consumer Price Index
United Kingdom Inflation Data (CPI, PPI, RPI)
Switzerland March ZEW Expectations Survey
Germany March IFO Business Climate
Swiss National Bank Quarterly Bulletin (Q1)
Thursday, March 26:
Germany April GfK Consumer Confidence
Eurozone Q4 Gross Domestic Product
Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report
US Initial Jobless Claims
New Zealand March ANZ–Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
Friday, March 27:
UK March Consumer Confidence
UK February Retail Sales
Eurozone March Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Preliminary)
US March Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations
This packed calendar of releases across major economies—alongside guidance from institutions like the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, and Bank of England—will play a crucial role in shaping expectations for interest rates, inflation trends, and overall monetary policy direction in the near term.
Donald Trump on Saturday warned that the United States would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran fails to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours—marking a sharp escalation just a day after suggesting the war might wind down. Posting on social media, Trump set a firm deadline and threatened to begin strikes with Iran’s largest facilities, signaling a potential expansion of U.S. targets to include civilian infrastructure.
The near shutdown of the strait—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies pass—has already disrupted shipping and driven energy prices sharply higher, with European gas prices jumping as much as 35% last week. In response, Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya warned it would retaliate against U.S. energy, IT, and desalination infrastructure across the region if attacked.
Tensions intensified further after Iran struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City—a key global LNG hub—causing damage expected to take years to repair. Meanwhile, the conflict has expanded militarily, with Iran reportedly launching long-range missiles for the first time, including strikes targeting the U.S.-British base at Diego Garcia, raising concerns about threats extending as far as Europe.
The war, now in its fourth week, has killed more than 2,000 people and continues to escalate unpredictably. Trump’s shifting rhetoric—from de-escalation to issuing a 48-hour ultimatum—has left allies uncertain, while rising energy costs and inflation are increasing domestic pressure in the U.S. ahead of upcoming elections.
On the ground, fighting continues between Iran and Israel. Iranian missile strikes hit southern Israeli cities, injuring dozens, while Israeli forces carried out retaliatory strikes in Tehran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue military operations, describing the situation as a critical moment in the country’s fight for its future.
The U.S. President, Donald Trump, intensified his administration’s military stance on Saturday by giving Tehran a 48-hour deadline to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In a social media post, he warned that if Iran failed to eliminate threats to the vital waterway, it would face the “obliteration” of its power infrastructure, with a particular focus on its largest power plants.
This move comes after weeks of maritime disruption that have effectively brought shipping to a standstill in the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, where roughly 20% of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) typically passes.
Strategic infrastructure in focus
The latest warning from Donald Trump signals a shift in targeting strategy, expanding beyond military assets to include Iran’s domestic power grid in an effort to maximize pressure on its leadership.
Trump also pushed back against claims that the U.S. has fallen short of its initial objectives, asserting that the campaign is “weeks ahead of schedule” and has already significantly weakened Iran’s naval and air capabilities.
While the White House has indicated that Tehran may be open to negotiations, the President has publicly ruled out talks for now, instead insisting on the unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
A strike on Iran’s power plants would likely have consequences far beyond energy shortages at home. Such a move would point to a broader disruption of regional industrial capacity, making any diplomatic resolution increasingly difficult to achieve.
The “Hormuz chokepoint” and market volatility
The effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has unleashed a major shock to global energy supply, as tanker movements have nearly halted and key Persian Gulf producers have been forced to cut output.
The 48-hour deadline set by Donald Trump has injected fresh urgency into global commodities markets. If no change occurs before it expires, a potential shift toward targeting civilian energy infrastructure could significantly alter the region’s risk premium for the rest of 2026.
War, oil shocks, and market turbulence would typically create ideal conditions for gold to rally—yet prices have declined sharply. The explanation isn’t about a lack of fear, but rather the underlying mechanics of global reserve flows.
For years, the narrative was straightforward: gold and silver climbed as investors sought protection from loose monetary policy, fiscal imbalances, and a weakening dollar. Central banks—from Beijing to Riyadh—were steadily shifting away from U.S. Treasuries and into bullion, reinforcing a strong long-term bullish case for precious metals.
Then, within just three weeks, the trend reversed sharply. Gold dropped 14%, while silver plunged an even steeper 28%. On the surface, the timing seems counterintuitive. Global conflict is intensifying, oil markets are under stress, and volatility is rising. Although the dollar has strengthened after hitting multi-year lows, these conditions would typically support precious metals. Yet instead of rallying, they are falling sharply.
The explanation, once understood, is both surprising and illuminating: gold is no longer trading as a traditional “safe-haven” asset. Instead, it is responding to global reserve flows—and at the moment, those flows are moving in reverse.
A Decade of Currency Dilution
To understand gold’s long-term rise, it’s essential to recognize the two key drivers behind its bull case. The first is monetary debasement. Since the 2008 financial crisis—intensifying during the pandemic—central banks across developed economies have expanded their balance sheets on an unprecedented scale. Money supply has outpaced economic output, real interest rates have turned negative, and inflation has ultimately followed.
In such an environment, hard assets—especially gold and silver—offered something increasingly rare: a store of value that cannot be created at will. Both institutional and retail investors funneled capital into precious metals as protection against the gradual erosion of purchasing power. The logic was straightforward: if fiat currencies are being diluted, hold assets that cannot be.
“Gold evolved from a traditional safe haven into a preferred reserve asset—a structural shift that changed both the profile of buyers and their motivations.”
The second pillar supporting gold’s rise was de-dollarization. The 2022 move by Washington and Brussels to freeze Russia’s foreign reserves sent a clear signal to surplus nations worldwide: dollar-based assets, including Treasuries, carry political risk. Gold, by contrast, does not.
The reaction was both rapid and unprecedented. Central banks—particularly across the Global South and the Gulf—accelerated gold purchases to levels not seen in decades. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and China emerged as major buyers. This was not speculative demand, but a strategic shift in sovereign asset allocation—reducing reliance on the dollar and increasing exposure to an asset with no counterparty risk.
The Hormuz Shock
The conflict with Iran—particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—has rapidly disrupted this dynamic. As a critical artery of the global oil market, roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum flows through the strait each day. When that passage is constrained, the impact goes beyond higher oil prices—it directly squeezes the revenue streams of the very countries that had been the most consistent marginal buyers of gold.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait manage their sovereign wealth and reserves largely through petrodollar surpluses. When oil revenues fall sharply—as they do when a critical shipping route is disrupted—those surpluses shrink or vanish. The consequence is clear: the marginal buyer of gold steps back, or in some cases becomes a forced seller, liquidating assets to meet domestic fiscal needs.
China introduces an additional layer of pressure. As the world’s largest oil importer, it is now facing a meaningful terms-of-trade shock. Slower economic growth translates into reduced trade surpluses, which in turn limits reserve accumulation. With fewer reserves being built, demand weakens for gold—the preferred alternative reserve asset.
Why Silver Is Falling More Sharply
Silver’s decline has been nearly twice as severe as gold’s, reflecting its dual role. Unlike gold, which is primarily a monetary asset, silver is heavily tied to industrial demand—electronics, solar panels, electric vehicles, and semiconductors account for roughly half of its usage.
When global growth expectations deteriorate quickly, industrial demand contracts just as rapidly. As a result, silver is hit on two fronts: declining reserve demand and weakening industrial consumption. The same slowdown that compresses Gulf surpluses also dampens manufacturing activity, amplifying the downside.
The Paradox of Geopolitical Precious Metals
The common belief that gold thrives during geopolitical turmoil is not incorrect—but it is incomplete. Gold performs best in crises where capital seeks safety and liquidity flows toward hard assets. The current Iran-related shock, however, is different: it disrupts the underlying flow of global capital that has been supporting gold’s long-term rally.
This is the core paradox. Gold is not responding to headlines—it is reacting to balance sheets, particularly the weakening financial positions of sovereign buyers that have driven demand in recent years. Fear is abundant, but in this case, it is not the primary driver of price action.
“In the short term, gold follows liquidity and reserve flows—not headlines or fear. The long-term bull case remains intact, but the marginal buyer has stepped away.”
Momentum, Retail, and the Unwind
Prior to the conflict, precious metals had increasingly taken on the characteristics of momentum trades. Although the underlying drivers—monetary debasement, de-dollarization, and central bank demand—remained intact, they also drew in a more speculative wave of capital. Retail investors, propelled by sustained price gains, social media influence, ETF inflows, and commission-free trading, rapidly piled into gold and silver.
Gold ETFs experienced some of their strongest inflows in the months leading up to the conflict, while silver—more affordable and volatile—became a favorite among momentum-driven traders seeking outsized returns.
This backdrop helps explain the severity of the current selloff. When prices are supported not only by fundamentals but also by a momentum premium, reversals tend to be abrupt. As that premium unwinds, selling pressure intensifies. Notably, the Gold Trust ETF has just posted its largest monthly outflow since April 2013, highlighting how quickly market sentiment can reverse.
The same investors who drove prices higher often operate with tight stop-losses, leverage, and short investment horizons. As the trend reversed, this momentum-driven crowd unwound positions just as quickly as it had built them, magnifying the decline far beyond what fundamentals alone would justify. The Hormuz shock may have sparked the selloff, but the real accelerant was the excess speculation that had built up during the rally.
Outlook: The Structural Case Remains—For Now
Nothing in the current environment fundamentally undermines the long-term case for gold. Monetary debasement persists, and de-dollarization remains a gradual, multi-decade shift rather than a short-term trade. Central banks are unlikely to abandon gold accumulation strategies due to temporary revenue pressures. As conditions stabilize—oil flows normalize, China regains momentum, and GCC surpluses recover—the structural demand for gold is likely to return.
However, markets do not operate on long-term narratives in the near term. They respond to immediate flows—who is buying and who is selling right now. At present, the key marginal buyers are facing financial constraints. More than any geopolitical storyline, this explains gold’s decline in an environment that would typically support higher prices.
For investors, the takeaway is both humbling and instructive: understanding an asset’s long-term drivers does not guarantee insight into its short-term movements. Gold may remain a form of sound money, but like all assets, it is still influenced by shifts in global liquidity—and at the moment, that liquidity is receding.
Every few months, headlines claim the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the world’s reserve currency is ending. Arguments often cite China selling Treasuries, central banks stockpiling gold, BRICS creating a new monetary system, or the 2022 sanctions that froze $300 billion of Russia’s reserves—suggesting that dollar-denominated assets are no longer “safe” and that the supposedly risk-free asset has become a weapon.
Yet the data tells a different, more important story—one often overlooked by investors chasing simple narratives, exposing the risk of being badly misled.
The Numbers Don’t Support a “Flight from the Dollar”
Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities hit a record $9.4 trillion in December 2025, up from $8.7 trillion the previous year—an increase of over $700 billion, or about 8%. Since 2020, foreign holdings have grown from roughly $7.1 trillion, a gain of more than $2.3 trillion. Rather than fleeing, foreign investors are buying U.S. dollar assets at an accelerating pace.
From November 2024 to November 2025, the UK, Belgium, and Japan were the top buyers of U.S. debt, each purchasing over $115 billion. The UK led the pack, boosting its holdings by around $150 billion in just one year. Belgium, which hosts Euroclear—the world’s largest international central securities depository—recorded a 26% increase in its U.S. Treasury holdings, the highest percentage gain among major holders.
China, on the other hand, trimmed its U.S. Treasury holdings by about $86 billion during the same period. However, the reported TIC figure of $683 billion understates China’s true exposure, since it only counts securities held in U.S. custody. A substantial and increasing portion of China’s Treasury holdings is actually custodied through European intermediaries—mainly the Belgian and Luxembourg accounts that have been expanding so rapidly.
As highlighted previously:
“This isn’t a conspiracy—it’s simply financial plumbing. China relies on Belgium for custodial purposes not only to reduce geopolitical risk but also because Euroclear Bank, located there, sits at the center of cross-border settlement and collateral management. Similarly, Clearstream in Luxembourg serves the same global institutional clients. For central banks or state institutions seeking to hold large Treasury portfolios with flexible settlement and collateral options, these hubs provide crucial operational infrastructure.”
The Real Story: Debt Holders and Custody, Not the Dollar
The critical issue isn’t whether the U.S. dollar is losing its reserve status—it’s about who holds U.S. debt and where it is custodied.
Foreign official (central bank) holdings peaked at around $4.1 trillion in 2020 and have since declined to roughly $3.7–$3.8 trillion. Official institutions have been net sellers since 2021, with rolling twelve-month outflows of approximately $107 billion. This trend reflects risk management decisions by central banks, especially after the 2022 freeze of Russian reserve assets, which highlighted the importance of jurisdiction, legal frameworks, and operational controls in custody arrangements.
Yet private foreign investors—banks, asset managers, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate treasuries—have more than offset the decline in official holdings. In 2023, private foreign holdings surpassed official holdings for the first time and now stand near $5.7 trillion, an 80% increase since 2020. This is not de-dollarization but “de-officialization”: dollars continue to flow, but through different channels.
Custody Migration: Sanctions, Regulation, and Infrastructure
The key shift is in where Treasuries are held, not whether. Post-2022 sanctions accelerated migration of custody from New York-based institutions to European clearinghouses like Euroclear and Clearstream. Euroclear’s assets under custody exceeded €43 trillion in 2025, with turnover rising 20% year-over-year to €1,390 trillion—evidence of a growing, not declining, business.
While sanctions are part of the story, regulatory arbitrage is an even bigger driver. The SEC’s December 2023 mandate requiring central clearing of Treasury cash and repo transactions (compliance by December 2026 and June 2027) represents a massive structural change, potentially bringing $4 trillion in daily transactions under FICC’s central clearing. Combined with Basel III capital charges, Dodd-Frank derivatives margining, and post-trade transparency rules, the incentives to custody and trade Treasuries through European platforms rather than DTCC are substantial, independent of geopolitical concerns.
The 2022 freeze of Russian assets, held at Euroclear (~€185 billion), sent a strong signal that Western-custodied assets can be seized under extreme circumstances. Yet ironically, shifting custody from New York to Brussels doesn’t escape Western sanctions—it simply moves jurisdictional risk from U.S. law to Belgian and EU law, while still leveraging Euroclear’s robust operational infrastructure.
Gold’s Signal Matters—It Complements, Doesn’t Replace, Other Indicators
Central bank gold buying has been remarkable. Looking at tonnage—which removes price effects and shows actual physical accumulation—the trend is clear. Excluding the U.S., central bank gold reserves rose from about 24,800 tonnes in 2005 to 31,282 tonnes in 2024, a 26% increase (or roughly 1.3% annually) over two decades. However, this growth was uneven: from 2005 to 2021, central banks added only around 200 tonnes per year on average, a modest 0.8% annual increase.
Between 2022 and 2024, net gold purchases jumped to roughly 1,055 tonnes per year, representing a 3.7% annual growth rate. Remarkably, over half of the total twenty-year accumulation happened during just these three years. That said, purchase activity has since begun to slow.
Advocates of de-dollarization often cite this chart as “proof” of the dollar’s decline. Yet the data contains a fundamental paradox that few commentators address.
Gold is bought, sold, and settled using U.S. dollars.
The LBMA, the center of wholesale physical gold trading, publishes its benchmark price twice daily in U.S. dollars per troy ounce. Similarly, COMEX futures, which drive price discovery, are quoted and settled in U.S. dollars. When central banks like the PBoC, Reserve Bank of India, or National Bank of Poland buy gold, the transactions are denominated in dollars, cleared through dollar-based infrastructure, and the asset’s value is marked in dollars. Even the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which quotes prices in renminbi, effectively tracks the dollar-denominated LBMA benchmark adjusted for the USD/CNY rate.
This creates a fundamental paradox for the de-dollarization narrative. When a central bank sells $10 billion in U.S. Treasuries to buy $10 billion in gold, it has not meaningfully reduced dollar exposure. It has merely swapped one dollar-denominated asset (Treasuries, with counterparty risk, yield, and maturity) for another (gold, with no counterparty risk, yield, or maturity). While the gold itself is physically non-dollar, its acquisition, valuation, and future liquidation all involve dollars.
Central banks are not de-dollarizing—they are de-risking within the dollar system, moving from assets that could be frozen or sanctioned to assets that cannot. This distinction is crucial: gold accumulation does not weaken the dollar’s role as the global unit of account. Every tonne of gold purchased flows through dollar-denominated clearing infrastructure.
The proper framing is “gold vs. Treasuries”, not “gold vs. the dollar.” Gold is a rotation within the dollar ecosystem, shifting from an asset with counterparty risk to one without.
Even with this accumulation, gold remains a fraction of total holdings. Excluding the U.S., central bank gold is worth about $2.4 trillion, below the $3.7–$3.8 trillion in official Treasury holdings and far smaller than the $9.4 trillion in total foreign Treasury holdings. No central bank is abandoning Treasuries wholesale. For example, the PBoC still holds at least $684 billion in reported Treasuries (likely much more via intermediaries) versus roughly $200 billion in gold. Even the most aggressive gold-buying central banks are pursuing marginal diversification, not substitution.
In reality, central banks are accumulating gold incrementally as a hedge against potential dollar weaponization. However, none are selling off their Treasury holdings en masse to fund these purchases. Gold and Treasuries function as complementary assets within a diversification strategy, not as substitutes in a supposed currency battle.
The Real Story: A Five-Layer Shift in Global Dollar Dynamics
Custody Migration, Not Asset Flight – U.S. Treasuries are relocating from New York-based custody to European clearinghouses. This shift is primarily a hedge against regulatory and sanctions risks. Importantly, these assets remain U.S. dollar-denominated obligations, leaving the dollar’s role as the global unit of account intact.
Official-to-Private Rotation – Central banks are trimming their holdings, while private foreign investors—hedge funds, asset managers, and banks—are increasingly buying U.S. debt. The marginal buyer of Treasuries is no longer the PBoC or Bank of Japan, but private investors seeking yield and collateral.
Share Erosion Despite Nominal Growth – Foreign ownership as a percentage of total U.S. debt has dropped from roughly 49% in 2008 to 32% in 2024. Yet in absolute terms, holdings have reached record levels. Because the U.S. continues to issue debt faster than foreign investors can buy it, domestic entities—like the Fed, banks, and money market funds—must absorb the difference.
Gold as Insurance, Not Replacement – Central banks are accumulating gold at the fastest rate in decades as a hedge against geopolitical risks, including sanctions. This is prudent portfolio diversification, not a strategic move against the dollar.
Regulatory Fragmentation – U.S. market structure changes—mandatory clearing, capital charges, and transparency rules—are encouraging Treasury trading and custody offshore. This is largely a self-inflicted structural shift, potentially posing a bigger long-term risk to U.S. financial primacy than Chinese gold purchases.
The Bottom Line
The narrative of de-dollarization is largely factually incorrect, yet it reflects a genuine shift in sentiment. The dollar is not collapsing—foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries remains at record levels. What is changing is the infrastructure through which the world accesses dollar assets. This shift isn’t driven by adversaries trying to dismantle the system, but by participants aiming to shield themselves from political and regulatory risks.
The world isn’t abandoning the dollar—it is hedging against those who control it. This distinction is crucial for investors in positioning portfolios and for policymakers considering the long-term impact of using the dollar as a geopolitical tool.
The U.S. labor market is weakening, reducing the flow of passive dollars into the stock market. Both labor supply and demand are declining simultaneously.
Supply-Side Pressures:
Immigration into the U.S. has fallen from roughly 2 million annually since 2020 to near zero today.
Demographics are slowing population growth: from 1.8% post-WWII to 0.5% currently.
Aging population: Over 4.1 million Baby Boomers are turning 65 each year from 2024–2027 (~11,200 daily).
Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) peaked at 66% with baby boomers, remained stable from 1990–2008, and has now fallen to 62%.
Demand-Side Pressures:
AI adoption is suppressing hiring, with estimates of 200–300k job losses in 2025 alone.
U.S. bonds’ 40-year bull market has ended; persistent inflation (>2% for 5 years) and $2T annual deficits are fueling a $39T national debt. Higher yields on debt suppress business formation and expansion.
The result: employment growth has stalled. January 2025 had 170.7M workers; today it’s 170.4M. Fewer employed individuals mean less money flowing into 401(k)s and the stock market, reversing trends seen over past decades.
Recent Economic Highlights:
U.S. spent $11.3B in the first week of the Iran war.
Home foreclosures rose for the 12th consecutive month in February (+20% YoY).
Private credit default rate climbed to 9.2%, exceeding 2008 crisis levels. Q4 GDP revised down to 0.7% from 1.4% estimate (Q3 was 4.4%).
Fed added $18B in base money supply last week.
January core PCE inflation: 3.1% (well above 2% target); headline: 2.8%. Post-Iran war, energy price spikes will likely push headline higher.
February PPI: 3.4% YoY; core PPI: 3.9% YoY (rising from January’s 2.9%/3.4%).
The Fed did not cut rates in March, and future rate reductions are unlikely as inflation remains elevated. War-related energy price spikes further complicate monetary stimulus.
Market Valuations:
The stock market is historically expensive, with Total Market Cap/GDP at 220% (vs. 50% in 1975–1990).
Geopolitical Outlook:
Low probability scenario: Iran surrenders enriched uranium and reopens the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for bombing cessation—unlikely due to U.S. and Israel demanding regime change.
More probable: war scales down over weeks, partial shipping resumes, oil prices moderate to ~$80/barrel. This scenario limits aggressive market shorts but allows portfolio hedges against stagflation.
Investment Strategy:
Favor precious metals, energy, and defensive stocks.
Short rate-sensitive stocks and bonds.
Stagflation makes buy-and-hold 60/40 portfolios risky; active management through inflation/deflation cycles is a better approach.
Bitcoin held above $70,000 on Friday after dipping below $69,000 the previous day, ending a nearly two-week winning streak as risk assets faced pressure.
Initially unaffected by the Middle East conflict, cryptocurrencies have recently felt the impact of rising oil prices, while cautious central bank commentary suggesting sustained higher interest rates also weighed on sentiment. By 18:17 ET (22:17 GMT), Bitcoin was up 1% at $70,843.9, having hit a low of $68,814.4 on Thursday.
Analyst Iliya Kalchev of Nexo Dispatch noted that $70,000 is a key level—holding it could stabilize prices and relieve pressure on leveraged positions, while a break could open the path to the next support zone. On-chain data show long-term holders are selling less, indicating a slowdown in distribution. However, miners remain a vulnerable segment, and overall on-chain activity is down, with trading shifting toward derivatives and ETFs, making price discovery more influenced by macro factors than direct demand.
Equities and other risk assets have been hit hard this week amid escalating Middle East tensions, dragging crypto down with them. Reports indicate the U.S. is exploring troop options in Iran. CBS News reported that Pentagon officials have detailed plans for potential ground deployments, while Reuters noted additional Marines and sailors are being sent to the region.
Oil prices surged, with Brent crude reaching $119 on Thursday, after Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field and Tehran retaliated against regional energy infrastructure. Although the U.S. and allies have sought to ease supply concerns near the Strait of Hormuz, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated sanctioned Iranian oil already at sea may be allowed into markets, and further Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases remain possible. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also pledged to refrain from further strikes on Iranian energy sites.
Federal Reserve signals also influenced crypto sentiment. While the Fed kept rates unchanged, higher energy costs fueling inflation expectations pushed back the timing of potential rate cuts. The European Central Bank and Bank of England similarly maintained rates, taking a wait-and-see approach amid the Middle East crisis.
Most altcoins mirrored Bitcoin’s recovery. Ethereum gained 1% to $2,160, XRP fell slightly to $1.4483, Solana rose 1.4%, Cardano edged up 0.2%, and Dogecoin climbed 1.5%.
On Saturday, Israel struck targets in Iran and Beirut as the U.S. sent thousands more Marines to the Middle East. President Donald Trump criticized NATO allies as “cowards” for hesitating to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the U.S. and Israel began attacks on Iran on February 28, over 2,000 people have died, and Americans are growing concerned the conflict could expand further in its fourth week. Israel said it targeted Hezbollah in Beirut while intensifying airstrikes against Iran-backed militias, marking the deadliest spillover since Hezbollah fired on Israel on March 2. Israel also launched new attacks on Tehran.
Key energy infrastructure in Iran and the Gulf has been hit, pushing oil prices up 50%, prompting companies like United Airlines to cut planned flights by 5% due to expected prolonged high fuel costs. The Strait of Hormuz, critical for a fifth of global oil and LNG, is largely closed to shipping. Allies have pledged “appropriate efforts” to ensure safe passage, but Germany and France insist fighting must stop first. Iran indicated it will allow Japanese-related vessels to pass.
To ease supply, the U.S. will temporarily waive sanctions to sell 140 million barrels of Iranian oil stranded by the conflict. In Beirut, Israel issued evacuation warnings before its attacks; over 1,000 people have been killed and more than a million displaced.
Israel launched multiple airstrikes on Tehran and central Iran, while Iran fired missiles in retaliation. As Muslims celebrated Eid al-Fitr and Iranians observed Nowruz, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei praised unity and resistance, raising questions about his condition following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the early days of the war.
The U.S. plans to deploy 2,500 Marines with the amphibious ship Boxer, though the mission remains unclear. Polls show nearly two-thirds of Americans expect a large-scale U.S. ground war, yet only 7% support it. No decision has been made on deploying troops into Iran, though potential targets could include Iran’s coast or Kharg Island oil facilities. Trump has said the U.S. is close to achieving its goals of weakening Iran’s military and halting its nuclear ambitions and may scale back military operations.
Dollar posts a weekly drop as policymakers adopt a cautious stance due to the ongoing Iran war.
The U.S. dollar held steady on Friday but remained below multi-month highs and was set for a weekly decline, as investors weighed the future of U.S. interest rates amid the ongoing war in Iran. The US Dollar Index, tracking the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.3% to 99.50 but fell 0.9% for the week.
EUR/USD slipped 0.2% to 1.1570 and GBP/USD dropped 0.7% to 1.3338, both aiming for weekly gains, while USD/JPY gained 0.9% to 159.21. Rising oil prices, driven by attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and disruption of key shipping routes, have fueled expectations that global central banks may tighten monetary policy to counter renewed inflation risks, boosting demand for the dollar since the conflict began in late February.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this week, citing uncertainty around U.S.-Israeli actions in Iran, though it maintained projections for potential rate cuts later this year. This positions the Fed as the only major central bank not expected to hike rates in 2026, in contrast to the European Central Bank’s more hawkish stance. JPMorgan analysts noted the stark difference, highlighting that early hikes could risk repeating past policy errors, though market expectations still tilt toward some rate increases this year.
Brent crude prices fell from a recent $119 per barrel spike after President Donald Trump sought to calm markets, pledging to resolve the crisis without deploying ground troops—though Pentagon planning and additional troop deployments suggest contingency preparations. The White House is also exploring measures to ease energy market pressures, including potentially lifting sanctions on Iranian oil, while requesting $200 billion in funding for the conflict.
The pound falls as rising oil prices counteract a hawkish signal from the Bank of England.
Sterling fell on Friday as higher oil prices pressured sentiment, but the pound remained on track for a weekly gain following a hawkish surprise from the Bank of England that revised UK rate expectations. At 12:52 GMT, GBP/USD was down 0.3% at $1.34, partially reversing Thursday’s 1.31% jump, with the currency up 1.2% for the week.
EUR/GBP was largely unchanged, as hawkish signals from both the ECB and BoE offset each other. EUR/USD slipped 0.2% to 1.15, pulling back from Thursday’s 1.2% rally, as the dollar found tentative support despite the ECB’s April rate hike guidance.
On Thursday, the BoE voted unanimously 9-0 to keep rates on hold, surprising markets that had expected some members to favour a cut. Dovish MPC member Swati Dhingra even discussed possible hikes to manage inflation. Traders quickly repriced expectations, now anticipating around 80 basis points of tightening by year-end, though ING cautioned this may be excessive given weaker conditions for second-round inflation than in 2022.
Oil continued to drive markets, with Brent volatile amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz concerns. ING strategist Francesco Pesole noted that while the hawkish BoE stance provided some support for sterling, commodity prices and geopolitical developments remained the dominant market influences. ING retains a bullish view on EUR/GBP, targeting 0.88 by end-Q2, factoring in May local elections and potential future BoE cuts.
Gold prices continue to drift lower after breaking the 50-day moving average. Traditionally a safe haven in times of uncertainty, the “fog of war” now keeps gold in focus. I plan to maintain my sizable gold position, supported by strong projected sales and earnings from my gold stocks. Other commodities are also soft, reflecting fears of slower global growth.
Geopolitical tensions remain high. On Wednesday, President Trump warned that if Iran continues targeting Gulf energy infrastructure, the U.S. would strike the South Pars Gas Field with unprecedented force. Until hostilities subside and shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, energy-driven inflation is likely to persist.
The March Producer Price Index (PPI) report added to concerns. Wholesale food and energy prices are expected to rise sharply due to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure. In February, the PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, with wholesale food up 2.4% and energy 2.3%. Prices for final demand goods rose 1.1%, and wholesale service costs increased 0.5%.
The FOMC highlighted labor market weakness, noting that job gains remain low. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the private sector is not creating sufficient jobs. The “dot plot” signals one expected interest rate cut, though some FOMC members anticipate more. The statement avoided calling war-related inflation transitory, instead noting that the Middle East’s impact on the U.S. economy is “uncertain,” while economic activity continues at a solid pace and inflation remains elevated.
The housing market showed weakness as well. January new home sales fell 17.6% to an annual pace of 587,000—the slowest since 2022—likely influenced by severe winter weather. Sales plunged nearly 45% in the Northeast and about 34% in the Midwest. A sluggish housing market is expected to weigh on GDP growth.
On the tech side, data center demand remains strong. Micron Technology (MU) reported a 196.3% year-on-year revenue jump to $23.86 billion in its latest quarter, while earnings soared 682.1% to $12.20 per share from $1.20 a year ago. The company beat revenue expectations by 21.7% and earnings by 38.6%, underscoring robust demand for fast memory chips.
The market is taking a breather on recent headlines, but the fundamental energy system is still disrupted, constrained, and far from normal. Interruptions in LNG and damage to infrastructure have turned what might have been a temporary flow shock into a long-term supply issue, likely keeping both oil and LNG prices elevated. Current relief rallies are fueled by short-term positioning and changing narratives rather than a lasting recovery, making this market one to trade actively rather than commit to for the long term.
The market is taking a breather. Netanyahu’s comments—talking about securing the Strait and neutralizing Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities—have soothed sentiment, suggesting the conflict might burn out sooner than feared. But even if the geopolitical chapter closes, the energy system doesn’t reset instantly. Repairing refineries, export terminals, and LNG infrastructure takes time, and confidence in shipping lanes cannot be rebuilt with statements alone. Brent remains above $105; calm on the surface, but the underlying disruption persists.
Oil dipped, sparking reflex rallies in equities, bonds, and volatility, as markets embraced the idea that the Strait might reopen and Iran’s enrichment and missile capacities are weakened. Relief rallies are thus more about positioning than a lasting recovery. Traders are playing the tape, not committing to the story.
The Gulf’s energy infrastructure has been directly hit. LNG outages aren’t temporary—they’re structural, keeping prices elevated even after headlines fade. The IRGC still has enough capability to cause damage, so the market remains tight. Brent dropping below $90 next month seems overly optimistic; elevated oil prices could persist for months.
Equities face a dilemma: hoping for normalization while input costs remain high and central banks stay firm. The bounce from lows is likely headline-driven short covering, not genuine repricing of risk.
Complicating matters, traders are entering one of the largest options expiries ever. With narratives unstable, any headline can trigger outsized moves as positioning resets in real time. Oil charts reflect this chaos: Brent spiked toward $119 on export rumors, then fell below $110 when denied, then drifted lower again on de-escalation headlines. It’s a market still on edge.
Yes, volatility eased, and the market can breathe for now. But the barrel remembers the fire, and the underlying disruptions remain.
What would happen if the U.S. stopped exporting WTI and Brent crude became available only through bids?
Yesterday, the Brent-WTI spread was the headline, and it set the tone for a conversation I had with a few veteran oil traders just before Washington denied any plans to ban U.S. crude exports. These are the people who’ve seen enough market cycles to distinguish a normal move from a market that’s beginning to think. As we ran through tail-risk scenarios, the discussion drifted into territory that felt increasingly uncomfortable.
This wasn’t the usual chatter about positioning, freight, or refinery runs. It was the kind of conversation where the scenario branches began to converge on outcomes that felt plausible—but alarming. I’m not sharing this to shock anyone, but it’s worth understanding what was being analyzed in the world of constant motion we call capital markets. The Brent-WTI blowout wasn’t just a price swing; it was the market quietly testing what could happen if the system itself started to fragment.
On the surface, it looked like a classic geopolitical squeeze: Middle East disruptions lifted Brent, while rising U.S. output weighed on WTI. Beneath the surface, though, a more structural concern emerged. What if the U.S. pulled back—by limiting exports or scaling down its role as the security backstop keeping energy flowing? The mechanics were simple but severe. WTI, being inland, depends on pipelines, storage, and export capacity. Brent, by contrast, is seaborne and priced assuming secure transit. As long as U.S. exports flowed, the arbitrage held, helping balance the global market. But if that valve closed even partially, the market effectively split in two.
Inside the U.S., crude would back up, storage would fill, refinery constraints would bite, and WTI would be forced to clear at a deeper discount. Outside the U.S., the opposite occurred: removing a few million barrels of flexible exports from a system already strained by Middle East risk made every waterborne barrel more valuable. Brent didn’t just rise from lost supply—it repriced the risk of getting oil from point A to point B. Layer in talk of U.S. troop withdrawals and reduced global security commitments, and the market started pricing something far more structural. This wasn’t about barrels alone; it was about the security architecture that enabled their movement.
Here’s where the real asymmetry appeared: the U.S. risked sitting on cheap, trapped crude, while Europe and Asia were forced into a bidding war for mobile supply at a time when mobility was less reliable. Asia felt it first through direct dependence on Middle East flows, Europe through prices and products—but both ended up paying for a world where oil wasn’t just produced, it was contested. The Brent-WTI spread ceased to be a simple arbitrage signal and became a stress indicator for a market increasingly pricing a disconnect between where oil sits and where it can actually go.
In that scenario, oil stops trading like a commodity and starts trading like a map of power: Brent becomes insured crude, WTI becomes stranded crude, and the rest of the world pays a premium for access.
The Dollar Index eased alongside falling crude prices as the U.S. indicated it may allow Iranian oil shipments to ease pressure on prices. The index remains volatile in the 99–101 range. EUR/USD is trending toward 1.16 but could retreat to 1.14. EUR/INR has moved higher as anticipated and may test 108 before pausing. EUR/JPY is likely to stay within 182–185, while USD/JPY has declined below 160 and may trade between 157–160 in the near term. USDCNY remains bullish above 6.85, targeting 6.90–6.95. AUD/USD and GBP/USD can trade within 0.69–0.72 and 1.3250–1.35, respectively. USD/INR may open higher, though surpassing 93 today is uncertain; yesterday’s NDF spike to 93.35 has corrected to 92.89–92.90.
U.S. Treasury yields have pulled back sharply from recent highs, with further near-term dips possible before resuming an upward trend. German yields also fell, maintaining the expected corrective dip, after which a rebound may follow. The ECB kept rates unchanged, citing high inflation and a slowing economy amid ongoing conflict. India’s 10-year G-Sec closed bullishly, with more upside possible if immediate resistance is broken.
Global equities remain under pressure. The Dow is falling toward 46,000, as expected. DAX rebounded from support near 22,700 and could reach 23,500–23,700 while holding this level. Nifty turned sharply bearish with a gap down; a break below 23,000 may push it toward 22,750–22,500. Nikkei continues to decline and may fall to 50,000–48,000 below 56,000. Shanghai is testing 4,000 support, with a potential drop to 3,950–3,900 in the coming weeks.
Crude remains volatile but supported above key levels. Brent may rebound to $110–$120 if it stays above $100, while WTI could rise toward $100–$104 above $90. Precious metals remain weak: gold may fall to $4,400–$4,200 after breaking below $4,800, and silver could slide to $65–$60 below $70. Copper continues to weaken toward $5.25–$5.00. Natural gas is inching higher, potentially reaching $3.50 in the coming weeks.
Buying oil in Asia or jet fuel in Europe right now comes at record prices. Physical markets—where oil is traded as cargo on ships, railcars, or in storage—have surged faster than futures markets, as refiners and traders scramble to fill the massive supply gap caused by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.
The disruption, triggered by attacks on oil and gas facilities across the Middle East, is the largest ever in global energy, with Iran restricting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for 20% of the world’s oil. Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial warned that even if the strait reopens, logistics challenges will delay a supply recovery.
Oil, gas, and refined products are vital for transport, shipping, and manufacturing, so supply shocks can heavily impact economies and demand for months or even years. Gulf production cuts and export halts have removed roughly 12 million barrels per day—about 12% of global daily demand—which are hard to replace, according to Petro-Logistics.
Physical Market Spike While futures prices have risen steadily since late February, physical cargo prices have surged even more. Brent crude briefly hit $119 per barrel, later settling near $109, while Middle East Dubai crude reached a record $166.80. Goldman Sachs predicts Brent could surpass its 2008 peak of $147.50 if outages continue. European and African crude cargoes hit $120, and even previously discounted Russian barrels now exceed $100.
The Mediterranean market, calm until early this week, has risen as expectations for a quick Hormuz reopening fade. David Jorbenaze of ICIS noted that spot price differentials reveal a much tighter market than headline prices suggest.
Seeking Sour Crude Refiners are turning to substitutes for Middle Eastern medium-density, high-sulphur “sour” crude. Russian Urals crude, long discounted due to sanctions, recently traded above Brent in India for the first time. Norwegian Johan Sverdrup crude reached an $11.30 premium to Brent. U.S. crude prices rose, with Mars Sour in the Gulf of Mexico hitting $107.53, about $6 above U.S. crude, reflecting its similarity to Middle Eastern oil.
Transport fuels have climbed even higher: European jet fuel hit around $220 per barrel, diesel exceeded $200, and Asian gasoil margins topped $60 per barrel. Measures such as the IEA’s release of 400 million strategic barrels and U.S. sanction waivers for Russian oil may not suffice. As Jorbenaze emphasized, “The market ultimately runs on barrels moving, not barrels being announced.”
Oil slips as the U.S. and allies move to ease supply constraints and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices dipped on Friday as European nations and Japan offered to help secure safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. outlined measures to boost supply.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated sanctions on Iranian oil stuck on tankers could soon be lifted, and further releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve were possible. Brent fell $1.36 (1.3%) to $107.29 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped $1.92 (2.0%) to $94.22.
Despite Friday’s decline, Brent is on track for a nearly 4% weekly gain after Iran targeted Gulf energy facilities, forcing production cuts. WTI, however, is set for its first weekly drop in five weeks, down more than 4%.
Markets eased some “war premiums” as world leaders signaled restraint, though analysts warn that full recovery of tanker logistics through Hormuz could take time. Any new attacks or disruptions could push prices higher, while diplomatic engagement may limit spikes and unwind the war premium.
Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan issued a joint statement offering assistance to ensure safe passage through Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil and LNG flows.
U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu not to strike Iranian energy facilities again. Meanwhile, North Dakota plans to increase crude output as wells restart and winter restrictions lift, though the pace will depend on oil prices and existing budgets.
On Thursday, Bitcoin briefly fell below $70,000 as investors weighed central bank decisions and rising tensions in the Middle East. The cryptocurrency declined 1.2% to $70,437.1 by 17:48 ET (21:48 GMT), bouncing back from a session low of $68,814.4, after trading above $74,000 in the previous session and touching near $76,000 earlier in the week.
Pressure on digital assets rose after major central banks—including the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England—kept interest rates steady but signaled ongoing inflation risks, especially from energy markets. Policymakers cautioned that surging oil prices could complicate disinflation and delay potential rate cuts. Traders subsequently priced out expectations of rate cuts this year, with the CME FedWatch tool showing none. The Fed also revised its 2026 inflation forecast up to 2.7% from 2.4%, partly reflecting higher oil prices.
The Bank of Japan maintained rates as well, warning that developments in the Middle East and crude oil markets could influence its inflation trajectory. Oil prices initially spiked toward $120 a barrel following Iran’s attacks on regional energy facilities but later reversed after Israel claimed Iran had lost the capability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles.
Cryptocurrencies, increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic trends, faced pressure as higher oil prices boosted bond yields and strengthened the dollar. U.S. stocks also closed lower amid Middle East conflict concerns and soft housing data.
Altcoins mirrored Bitcoin’s decline: Ethereum fell 2.6% to $2,147.41, XRP dropped 1% to $1.4524, Solana slid 1.6%, Cardano lost 2.6%, and Dogecoin dipped 2%.
The U.S. dollar has remained a favored safe-haven asset since late February, when the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran. Investors have priced in the expectation of prolonged higher interest rates due to inflationary pressures from surging oil prices, which typically strengthen the dollar.
Market sentiment was largely negative on Thursday after oil and gas prices jumped again following attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East. Iran’s South Pars gas field—the world’s largest natural gas deposit—was targeted, prompting Tehran to retaliate against sites in Gulf countries, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters that Israel acted alone in the South Pars strike and that U.S. President Donald Trump had requested no similar actions in the future. Netanyahu added that Iran no longer possesses the capacity to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles, which caused oil prices to retreat.
“We are winning, and Iran is being decimated,” Netanyahu stated.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept its key policy rate unchanged, as expected. The Fed’s updated projections raised the 2026 inflation forecast, partly due to rising oil prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized uncertainty over the war’s impact on inflation and the U.S. economy, noting repeatedly, “I’m not certain. I’m uncertain.”
JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli observed that Powell seems to be giving little weight to current forecasts and mentioned that this would have been a round where the Summary of Economic Projections could have been skipped, similar to March 2020. Regarding future rate hikes, Powell reiterated that no option is off the table, though it is not expected to be the baseline for most of the monetary policy committee.
Euro, pound, and yen rise after central bank decisions
On Thursday, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) held policy rates steady, mirroring the Fed. The ECB described the Middle East conflict’s impact on inflation and growth as “uncertain,” while the BoE warned that higher oil prices would push up household fuel and utility costs and indirectly affect business expenses.
EUR/USD rose 1.2% to 1.1586, and GBP/USD climbed 1.3% to 1.3429. Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja noted that the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously 9-0 to pause, reflecting the scale of the energy shock and potential inflationary pressures.
The Bank of Japan also kept rates unchanged, as expected. USD/JPY fell 1.3% to 157.67. Only one board member, Hajime Takata, opposed the decision, advocating a 25-basis-point hike. Japan relies heavily on Middle Eastern energy imports, and although slowing rice price increases have helped the BoJ manage inflation, the war-driven oil surge could intensify price pressures, according to José Torres of Interactive Brokers.
The S&P 500 closed down more than 1.3%, pressured by a hotter-than-expected PPI reading, a sharp rise in oil prices, and growing expectations that the Fed may delay rate cuts into 2026—even without Jay Powell at the helm.
The 2-year Treasury yield tells the story, jumping over 10 basis points to 3.79%, its highest level since August. While there’s minor resistance around 3.8%, it appears limited, leaving the door open for a move back toward 4% in the near term.
More notable is the move in the 30-year yield, which is once again approaching the 5% level. It rose 4 basis points on the day to 4.89%, putting it within striking distance of that key threshold.
If oil prices remain elevated—or push even higher—and inflation continues to trend upward, a breakout above 5% looks increasingly plausible, with a potential move toward 5.1%–5.2% not out of the question.
Turning back to the S&P 500, the index closed at its lowest level since November, finishing at 6,624. With the 200-day moving average just 9 points below, the market is approaching a key technical battleground ahead of Friday’s options expiration (opex).
A decisive break below the 200-day, especially with follow-through selling, would likely raise red flags for investors. For now, however, such a move would more likely signal a test of the next support zone around 6,520.
The real inflection point lies below that—if 6,520 gives way, downside momentum could accelerate. In the near term, 6,500 is also shaping up as a critical level, acting as a put wall at least through Friday.
Based on my CTA model, flows are currently negative, with the next key flip level sitting around 6,570. I’m still refining the longer-term trend signal, so confidence there remains limited. More importantly, though, systematic flows at this point are not providing support for a market move higher.
The Financials ETF (XLF) is nearing a break of key support just below $49. If that level gives way, the next support zone comes in around $47.25—an area that dates back to April last year and also marks an unfilled gap on the chart.
At the end of the day, it all comes back to one key driver: oil—and for now, that trend is still pointing higher. As long as oil continues to climb, it likely keeps upward pressure on rates and the dollar, while weighing on risk assets.
Micron (NASDAQ: MU) just delivered stellar earnings and strong forward guidance, yet the stock is still down more than 3%. It’s not disastrous—at least for now—but notably, shares remain below the $450 level.
In essence, call options at $450 and above could rapidly lose value today if the stock fails to recover. That may trigger selling pressure, which in turn could force market makers to unwind their hedging positions.
As long as the stock holds above $430, gamma should remain positive—at least based on yesterday’s readings—making that level a potential area of support. However, if it falls below $430, dealers may turn into sellers, which could push the stock down toward $400, or possibly even closer to $390.
In this market, it really does feel like the tail is wagging the dog—at least from my perspective.
Oil has climbed above $110 per barrel following direct strikes on key energy infrastructure in the Middle East, signaling a broader repricing of global risk that investors can no longer ignore.
Attacks on Iran’s South Pars gas field, significant damage reported at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, and a vessel hit near the Strait of Hormuz point to a coordinated escalation rather than isolated events. Together, they highlight growing threats to both energy supply and critical trade routes.
The Strait of Hormuz alone handles about a fifth of global oil flows, along with a large share of LNG shipments, while Ras Laffan contributes roughly 20% of global LNG output. Disruptions at this scale quickly translate into higher energy costs, squeezed corporate margins, and slower economic growth.
Markets have responded, but likely not enough.
Parallels to the 1970s energy crises are becoming harder to ignore. Supply shocks of this magnitude tend to ripple across economies, embedding inflation and forcing a reassessment of risk across asset classes. Rising energy prices rarely stay confined to commodities—they spill over into transportation, manufacturing, and consumer prices, reshaping expectations.
Many portfolios built over the past decade have relied on assumptions of stable energy markets and smooth global trade. Those assumptions are now under strain. Investors may need to shift toward more resilient and diversified positioning.
Gold, for instance, has historically performed well during periods of geopolitical stress, reinforcing its role as a hedge. Hard assets tend to attract demand when uncertainty rises and currencies face pressure.
Energy exposure is also coming back into focus. Oil and gas producers—especially those outside immediate conflict zones—stand to benefit from tighter supply and higher prices. Investors underweight the sector may need to reconsider their positioning.
Broader commodities exposure is increasingly relevant as well. Higher energy costs feed into production and transportation expenses globally, strengthening the case for assets that perform in inflationary environments.
Sector allocation deserves careful review. Industries reliant on low fuel costs and efficient logistics—such as airlines and parts of heavy manufacturing—face growing pressure. Meanwhile, energy, defense, and infrastructure-related sectors are likely to see stronger demand as geopolitical risks rise.
Geographic diversification is becoming more critical. Economies heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy, particularly across parts of Asia, are more exposed to disruptions. Expanding international exposure can help mitigate regional risk.
Currency dynamics are shifting alongside these trends. Energy-importing countries often see their currencies weaken as import costs rise, while the U.S. dollar and commodity-linked currencies tend to strengthen during periods of elevated oil prices and geopolitical tension.
A structural repricing of risk is clearly underway. Energy infrastructure is being directly targeted, and key transport routes are under strain—echoing past global shocks where supply disruptions had lasting economic consequences.
Investors who continue to position for a quick return to stability risk being caught off guard. The energy crises of the 1970s offer a useful precedent: prolonged inflation, shifting capital flows, and strong performance from diversified real assets.
In this environment, a disciplined and forward-looking strategy is essential. Reviewing exposure across asset classes, sectors, and geographies—and avoiding overreliance on any single outcome—can help portfolios better withstand what is shaping up to be a more volatile and uncertain global landscape.
Oil exports and production in the Middle East have plunged, wiping out more than 7–10 million barrels per day from global supply and triggering a significant physical shortage.
With supply tight and storage capacity limited, prices could climb to $150–$200+ per barrel, and some analysts caution that prolonged disruptions may drive even sharper spikes.
Even if the conflict subsides, a recovery is likely to be gradual, and any short-term relief won’t fully make up for the deficit, keeping prices elevated.
Just a month ago, any analyst predicting oil could surge to $200 per barrel would have been dismissed outright. Now, that scenario is increasingly being taken seriously—and for good reason.
Middle Eastern oil and fuel exports, which averaged over 25 million barrels per day in February, have plunged by nearly two-thirds by mid-March, according to data from Kpler and Vortexa. Even more concerning is production: across the region, output is being slashed, with wells not easily or quickly restarted. Limited storage is forcing producers to cut supply, and in some cases, oil is being stored offshore rather than delivered to buyers. Altogether, roughly a fifth of global oil supply is severely disrupted, and even if the conflict ended immediately, recovery would take time.
Production cuts are substantial: Iraq alone has reduced output by around 2.9 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia has cut between 2 and 2.5 million. The UAE and Kuwait have also made significant reductions, bringing total lost supply to over 7 million barrels daily. This stands in stark contrast to earlier expectations from the International Energy Agency, which had forecast a surplus this year. Instead, as much as 10 million barrels per day may now be offline.
With physical supply constrained, the market has little ability to respond to demand, pushing prices sharply higher and making them slow to fall even if conditions improve. Some analysts now see $150 oil as a baseline, with $200 or higher no longer out of the question. Others warn that prices could spike even further in a sustained shortage, as commodity markets tend to move dramatically under such conditions.
That said, not all forecasts are bullish. Some expect prices to retreat below $100 for Brent and $90 for WTI if the conflict ends quickly—though there are few signs of that happening. Even in a best-case scenario, restarting production would take months, meaning prices would likely remain elevated due to lingering supply constraints.
Temporary relief has come from increased availability of sanctioned Russian oil, with nearly 200 million barrels currently in transit globally. However, this is unlikely to fully offset the shortfall. Meanwhile, measures like China restricting fuel exports and cutting refining rates, or the potential restart of limited pipeline flows from Iraq and Kurdistan, are unlikely to significantly ease the imbalance.
What once seemed unthinkable—a $200 oil price—is now within the realm of possibility. Still, given the economic strain such levels would impose worldwide, there is hope that de-escalation efforts may eventually prevent the most extreme outcomes.
Bitcoin dropped sharply on Thursday, falling below $71,000 as investors reacted to a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and a spike in oil prices fueled by rising Middle East tensions.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency slid 4.2% to $70,817.4 by early trading, retreating from levels above $74,000 in the previous session and nearly $76,000 earlier in the week.
Fed outlook weighs on markets
Pressure on digital assets intensified after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but flagged ongoing inflation risks, particularly from rising energy costs. Officials cautioned that higher oil prices could slow the disinflation process and push back expected rate cuts. The Fed also raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% from 2.4%, signaling concern over persistent price pressures.
Oil prices surged past $110 per barrel on Wednesday and continued climbing in Asian trading Thursday after Iran launched attacks on energy facilities across the Middle East following a strike on its South Pars gas field.
As cryptocurrencies increasingly move in tandem with macroeconomic trends, they faced headwinds from rising bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar driven by higher oil prices. U.S. stock markets closed lower बुधवार, while Asian equities also declined early Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan held rates steady and warned that developments in the Middle East conflict and oil prices could influence Japan’s inflation outlook.
Kraken delays IPO plans
Crypto exchange Kraken has reportedly paused its plans for a multibillion-dollar IPO due to unfavorable market conditions, according to CoinDesk. The firm, which had confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the U.S. SEC in November, is now expected to delay its listing until market sentiment improves.
The decision reflects a broader downturn in crypto markets since late 2025, with weaker prices and trading volumes dampening valuations and investor demand. Kraken was last valued at $20 billion after raising $800 million.
Altcoins extend losses
Most altcoins also declined on Thursday. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 6% to $2,193.41, while XRP dropped 3.5% to $1.47. Solana and Polygon each lost about 4%, and Cardano slid 6%. Among meme coins, Dogecoin fell 5%.
Trump is expected to pressure Japan to support the Iran conflict during a White House meeting.
Donald Trump is expected to use a White House meeting with Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, to seek support for the war against Iran, putting Tokyo in a difficult position as it weighs how much assistance it can offer.
Although Trump has criticized allies for their limited backing of the U.S.-Israeli campaign—while also claiming the U.S. does not need help—he is still urging partners to contribute naval forces to clear mines and protect tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely disrupted during the conflict.
The visit, originally intended to reinforce long-standing U.S.-Japan ties, has become more complicated. While Takaichi has advocated for a stronger military posture at home, public opposition to the Iran war has so far prevented Japan from committing to operations in the Gulf.
Meanwhile, other U.S. allies, including Germany, Italy, and Spain, have declined to join any mission in the region, frustrating Trump. Takaichi has stated that Japan has not received a formal request but is reviewing what actions might be possible within constitutional limits.
Analysts note the meeting could prove challenging for Takaichi, who had hoped to influence Trump’s approach to Asia policy—particularly regarding China—but may instead have to respond to immediate demands related to the Middle East.
Japan is also preparing for potential U.S. requests to help produce or co-develop missiles to replenish American stockpiles depleted by conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. At the same time, Tokyo’s diplomatic ties with Iran could offer a channel for mediation, though past efforts have failed.
In addition, Takaichi is expected to express Japan’s intention to join the “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative and announce new investments in the U.S., potentially including tens of billions of dollars in sectors such as energy and critical minerals, building on earlier commitments tied to easing trade tensions.
Oil prices climb after Iran launches attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East.
Oil prices climbed on Thursday, with Brent crude surging by as much as $5 per barrel after Iran launched attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East in response to a strike on the South Pars gas field—marking a significant escalation in its conflict with the United States and Israel. By 0400 GMT, Brent futures had gained $4.66, or 4.3%, to $112.04 a barrel, after earlier peaking at $112.86. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 96 cents, or 1%, to $97.28, having previously jumped more than $3. Brent had already advanced 3.8% on Wednesday, while WTI ended nearly unchanged.
WTI has been trading at its widest discount to Brent in over a decade, driven by releases from U.S. strategic reserves and elevated shipping costs, while renewed strikes on Middle Eastern energy assets have lent additional support to Brent. Analysts noted that the intensifying conflict—targeted attacks on oil infrastructure and the loss of Iranian leadership—could lead to prolonged supply disruptions. They also pointed to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady, accompanied by a hawkish outlook, as another factor heightening market concerns amid wartime conditions.
Further escalating tensions, QatarEnergy reported significant damage to its Ras Laffan LNG hub following Iranian missile strikes, while Saudi Arabia said it intercepted ballistic missiles and a drone targeting its gas facilities. Iran had issued evacuation warnings ahead of strikes on oil sites in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, retaliating for earlier attacks on its own facilities in South Pars and Asaluyeh.
South Pars, part of the world’s largest natural gas field shared between Iran and Qatar, was hit in an attack attributed to Israel, though U.S. and Qatari involvement was denied by President Donald Trump. He warned that the U.S. would respond if Iran targeted Qatar and said Israel would refrain from further strikes unless provoked.
Market analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated as tensions show no signs of easing and the Strait of Hormuz remains at risk of disruption. Reports also suggest the U.S. is considering deploying additional troops to the region, with options including securing tanker routes through the Strait—potentially involving both naval and air forces, and possibly ground troops if necessary.
The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies on Wednesday, recovering losses from the previous two sessions after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged.
The Fed signaled expectations of higher inflation and projected just one rate cut this year, as policymakers assessed the economic effects of the ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran.
Since tensions in the Middle East escalated nearly three weeks ago, the dollar has generally strengthened, hitting a 10-month high late last week as investors sought safety in U.S. assets amid rising oil prices.
Karl Schamotta of Corpay noted that the Fed’s latest outlook—featuring slower growth, weaker employment, and higher inflation—suggests that rising energy costs may temporarily weigh on economic demand.
In currency markets, the dollar climbed 0.92% against the Swiss franc, while the euro fell 0.5% to $1.148. Analysts say the Fed’s decision reinforced a “hawkish hold,” supporting the dollar as Treasury yields remain elevated despite unchanged rate projections.
The dollar index gained 0.51% to 100.0. Fed Chair Jerome Powell added that the central bank may look past oil-driven inflation pressures if progress continues in reducing core inflation.
Earlier data showed U.S. producer prices rose 0.7%, surprising expectations.
Meanwhile, attention is turning to upcoming decisions from other major central banks, including the ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, all expected to keep rates steady while monitoring inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict.
The Japanese yen weakened toward levels that could trigger intervention, while the British pound also declined. The dollar also edged higher against the offshore Chinese yuan.
Investor focus remains firmly on Iran—and rightly so. West Texas Intermediate crude is hovering near $100 per barrel, up sharply from December lows, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. Iran is selectively allowing shipments—primarily to China and some Asian countries—helping ease oil price pressure slightly.
The key market variable continues to be how long the Strait disruption lasts. While timelines remain uncertain, reopening it will likely be slow and complicated, with limited international support increasing pressure on the U.S. to act.
Despite geopolitical tensions, corporate earnings have remained resilient and continue to support equities. Strong investment in AI is driving robust growth—especially in tech, which accounted for more than half of recent S&P 500 earnings gains—and is expected to play an even larger role ahead. Fiscal stimulus is also boosting capital spending and profits.
Notably, earnings estimates are holding up better than usual, defying the typical early-year downgrades and continuing to trend higher into 2026 and beyond.
Upward revisions in the energy sector are lifting overall 2026 earnings forecasts, as highlighted in “It’s Not Just Energy Boosting Earnings Estimates.” But the strength isn’t limited to energy—technology and materials are also pulling more than their weight. And this shift has already emerged just two weeks into March.
Bottom line
Earnings momentum remains strong and should stay resilient despite the conflict in Iran. With core U.S. growth drivers intact and energy independence in place, double-digit earnings growth in 2026 still looks achievable—providing solid support for the stock market and helping cushion downside risk until geopolitical tensions ease.
Mainstream media reports that the dollar is strengthening, attributing the move to rising oil prices. But is that explanation accurate?
The dollar’s strength is more likely tied to the sharp downturn in an overvalued U.S. stock market.
As equities slide, investors appear to be retreating into cash, driving demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, both major political parties continue to present the stock market as a key symbol of economic health, while commentators push for aggressive rate cuts—even as inflation risks remain elevated.
Such cuts could erode returns for retirees and savers, but may help prop up equities and prevent a collapse reminiscent of 1929, while also enabling the government to take on significantly more debt.
A broader perspective challenges the idea of a strong dollar rally. Viewed against gold over the long term, the dollar shows little real strength, with fiat currency appearing to be on a prolonged path of decline.
The persistent rise in the cost of essentials—such as food, housing, and transportation—is often linked to government reliance on fiat money. In this view, the long-term impact of fiat systems has been deeply damaging to citizens, rivaling the economic harm typically associated with major conflicts.
The argument here is that investors should consistently build positions in gold, taking advantage of key price zones such as $5,000, $4,850, and $4,650 to accumulate not only gold, but also silver and mining stocks.
From a technical perspective, momentum indicators like the Stochastics (14,7,7) are نزدیک oversold levels, and a dip toward $4,850 could help form a large bullish triangle pattern, with a potential upside target around $6,600.
In the near term, attention is on upcoming data and policy decisions—specifically the PPI report and the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement. With oil prices having surged significantly, the Fed may face challenges in addressing inflation while balancing pressure to support the economy. Policymakers could frame inflation as temporary, despite it remaining above their long-term target.
For long-term gold investors, however, the focus is less on short-term central bank actions and more on identifying attractive entry points to steadily accumulate precious metals and quality mining equities.
What about oil? The U.S. is aggressively trying—while piling on more debt—to contain the attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, and a positive headline could emerge within the next couple of weeks.
That could act as a catalyst for the stock market rally I’m expecting (including gold equities). Still, oil appears stuck in a wide $80–$120 range for now, though the odds favor an upside breakout, potentially driving prices toward $160.
The key point is this: oil production and transportation infrastructure across much of the Middle East has likely suffered meaningful damage, and restoring full capacity could take years.
As for Venezuela stepping in to offset the shortfall, that seems unlikely in the near term. Despite political maneuvering, international oil companies will likely expand production there very cautiously.
In short, $80 may now represent a structural floor for oil prices. If so, inflation floors—across CPI, PPI, and PCE—could settle in the 4%–5% range, or even higher.
What about miners? The CDNX hasn’t made any meaningful progress since I flagged a profit-taking opportunity five months ago at the key psychological resistance level around 1000.
From a technical standpoint, this consolidation phase could persist into the fall, potentially forming a highly bullish, symmetrical structure on the chart.
In the meantime, gold stock investors should use this period to properly organize their allocations—positioning themselves to patiently ride out the lull and ultimately capitalize on the powerful breakout and multi-year advance that is likely to follow.
The chart for SIL (the silver miners ETF) remains bullish. Based on classical charting principles from Edwards & Magee, rectangle patterns tend to break to the upside about 67% of the time, implying a potential target near $130.
Rather than trying to pinpoint an exact bottom, investors are better off identifying strong accumulation zones—like the current one—and buying incrementally. A gold price of $5,000 aligns with roughly $92 for SIL, while additional positions in GDX, SIL, and related mining stocks could be added if gold dips toward $4,850.
With governments globally becoming increasingly debt-driven, the macro backdrop remains chaotic. In that environment, gold, silver, and mining investors can stay on the sidelines of the noise and focus instead on taking advantage of attractive entry zones.
When geopolitical tensions tied to oil intensify, most investors focus on outright oil prices. While those prices matter, fewer pay attention to the spread between Brent and WTI—an equally revealing signal. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), priced in Cushing, Oklahoma, serves as the U.S. benchmark and mainly reflects North American supply-demand dynamics.
Brent, by contrast, is the global benchmark derived from North Sea crude and closely mirrors international supply-demand conditions—especially seaborne oil flows through key routes like the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Under normal circumstances, Brent trades at a premium of about $2–$5 over WTI.
Sharp changes in this premium carry important market signals. In the context of the Iran conflict, the Brent–WTI spread offers one of the clearest real-time indicators of how producers, consumers, and traders are interpreting the situation.
A widening spread suggests markets are pricing in a global supply disruption, while a stable or narrowing gap—even with high spot prices—implies expectations that any disruption will be limited and temporary.
Recently, the spread has been highly volatile. It currently stands at around $7, pointing to concerns that the conflict could continue to strain global supply. However, frequent swings in the spread show how quickly sentiment is shifting with each new development.
S&P 500 Trails Most Sectors
Last week, the S&P 500 slipped by less than 0.5%, but it has fallen just over 3% from its Tuesday peak and now sits roughly 5% below recent highs. As illustrated in the charts, most sectors are outperforming the broader market based on both absolute and relative measures. The blue circle in the first chart shows that many sectors are positioned in the top-left quadrant—suggesting they are somewhat overbought relative to the S&P 500, yet slightly oversold on a standalone technical basis.
The second chart compares each sector’s performance versus the S&P 500 over the past five days and the prior 20-day period. Transportation stands out as a clear laggard. The third chart, which breaks down the sector’s top ten holdings, shows that oil-sensitive industries—such as trucking, freight, and airlines—have been hit the hardest. These businesses are also closely tied to overall economic activity.
As a result, elevated oil prices combined with rising concerns about economic slowdown are weighing heavily on transportation stocks. If the conflict drags on, the sector is likely to continue underperforming. Even if valuations become deeply oversold, they may stay depressed until there are clearer signs of stability or resolution.
Bitcoin edged slightly lower on Tuesday, easing after briefly nearing the $76,000 mark, as investors kept a close eye on oil price volatility linked to the Middle East conflict and awaited major central bank decisions.
The leading cryptocurrency was last down 0.2% at $74,605.5 as of 18:10 ET (22:10 GMT). Earlier in the session, Bitcoin had climbed to a high of $75,991.2.
Bitcoin buoyed by short covering, ETF inflows
Bitcoin drew support from short covering, as traders closed out bearish positions built during the early-February sell-off. However, the upward momentum faded במהלך the session, leaving prices hovering near unchanged levels.
Further support came from renewed institutional interest and steady inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
“Despite the rebound, Bitcoin’s path through March has been uneven. Each rally has met selling pressure near established resistance levels, as traders take profits following sharp gains,” said IG market analyst Axel Rudolph.
“This has resulted in a pattern of advances followed by consolidation, as the market searches for clearer direction,” he added.
Iran conflict and oil surge concerns linger; Fed decision in focus
Geopolitical tensions remained front and center as the conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran entered its third week, keeping global risk sentiment fragile.
Oil prices slipped overnight but rebounded on Tuesday, staying above $100 per barrel amid ongoing concerns about potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Persistently high energy prices have fueled worries about prolonged inflation, shaping investor positioning across markets, including cryptocurrencies.
“While escalating global tensions initially sparked risk-off selling, cryptocurrencies later began to behave more like defensive assets as the situation evolved,” said IG analyst Axel Rudolph.
Attention is now turning to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. While the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, investors are closely watching for signals on inflation.
In addition, several other major central banks are set to hold policy meetings later this week.
Mastercard to buy BVNK in $1.8 billion stablecoin expansion
Mastercard announced on Tuesday that it has reached an agreement to acquire BVNK, a stablecoin payments infrastructure provider, in a deal worth up to $1.8 billion. The acquisition aims to strengthen Mastercard’s footprint in blockchain-driven transactions.
The move reflects increasing regulatory clarity and rising adoption of stablecoins, which are enabling card networks to expand beyond traditional payment systems into faster and more cost-efficient digital transfers. Both Mastercard and Visa are racing to establish an early advantage in this rapidly evolving sector.
The deal includes up to $300 million in contingent payments and is expected to be finalized before the end of 2026.
BVNK offers infrastructure that bridges fiat currencies and stablecoins, facilitating payments across major blockchain networks in over 130 countries. The acquisition is expected to enhance capabilities in areas such as cross-border remittances, business transactions, and digital token payouts.
Crypto prices today: altcoins remain subdued
The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, fell 0.9% to $2,335.81. Third-ranked XRP declined 1.2% to $1.5324. Solana dropped 1.1%, while Cardano was largely unchanged. Among meme coins, Dogecoin slid more than 1.8%.
Oil prices declined during Wednesday’s Asian session, pulling back from recent gains after Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government agreed to restart crude exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal.
The agreement helped ease some concerns over supply disruptions stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. However, Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel, as the war entered its third week with little indication of de-escalation.
Markets also stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the day, amid worries that persistent inflation—fueled in part by higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict—could prompt a more hawkish stance.
By 00:18 ET (04:18 GMT), Brent futures had dropped 2.3% to $101.05 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 3.3% to $93.03 per barrel.
WTI faced additional pressure after data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.6 million barrels last week, defying expectations of a 0.6 million barrel draw. This data often signals a similar trend in official government figures, due later Wednesday.
On Tuesday, Iraq and Kurdish authorities finalized a deal to resume oil shipments to Turkey’s Ceyhan hub starting Wednesday. The move comes as major oil producers seek alternative export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz, especially after Iran effectively blocked the critical passage earlier this month.
Iraq had reportedly aimed to export at least 100,000 barrels per day through Ceyhan, after shutting in around 70% of its production due to the conflict. Still, the volumes from Ceyhan are expected to cover only a small portion of the supply gap caused by disruptions in Hormuz.
Oil prices also eased after reports that the United Arab Emirates may support a U.S.-led initiative to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had largely halted traffic through the strait—which handles roughly 20% of global oil supply—in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes.
The UAE could become the first country to back Washington’s efforts, though most allies have so far declined to participate. Meanwhile, tensions remain high, with Iran escalating attacks on vessels near Hormuz following strikes on a key export facility. Reports also indicated that Iranian security chief Ali Larijani was killed in an Israeli strike, raising the risk of further retaliation.
Despite the pullback, oil prices remain supported by ongoing supply concerns. Brent has surged more than 40% since the conflict began in late February. Analysts at OCBC expect crude prices to stay above $100 per barrel through at least mid-2026, citing the lack of clear prospects for easing tensions.
Oil prices to remain above $100/bbl
Oil prices are expected to stay above $100 per barrel in the near term, as the U.S.-Iran conflict shows little indication of easing, according to analysts at OCBC.
The bank noted that with the conflict now in its third week and no meaningful diplomatic progress, crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain heavily restricted, keeping global supply tight.
OCBC has revised its outlook, projecting Brent crude to hover around $100 per barrel until mid-2026—well above its earlier estimate of roughly $70—before gradually declining toward $70 by early 2027 as disruptions ease.
Analysts warned that prolonged shipping disruptions are forcing Gulf producers to cut output, increasing the likelihood that short-term supply issues could turn into more sustained losses.
Tanker activity in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply due to security concerns, effectively disrupting a crucial route responsible for about 20% of global oil consumption.
Although some shipments have cautiously resumed following Iranian inspections and potential stockpile releases from the International Energy Agency, overall volumes remain significantly below normal.
OCBC added that mitigation efforts—such as rerouting through alternative pipelines, tapping strategic reserves, and ongoing Iranian exports—could replace up to 10 million barrels per day. However, this would still leave a notable supply shortfall if disruptions persist.
The bank concluded that oil markets are nearing a “moderately severe” supply shock scenario, with risks tilted toward further price increases if geopolitical tensions continue.
The U.S. dollar paused on Wednesday as softer crude oil prices helped revive some risk appetite ahead of a series of major central bank decisions.
The yen remained fragile near levels that have previously raised concerns about possible intervention by Tokyo, especially with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington. Meanwhile, the euro slipped slightly after two sessions of gains, as the European Central Bank prepared to kick off its two-day policy meeting.
Amid the ongoing Middle East crisis, now in its third week, the dollar has strengthened as the primary safe-haven currency. However, oil prices edged lower after data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated a rise in U.S. crude inventories.
According to Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, while the pause in oil’s rally hasn’t dramatically improved conditions, markets are showing signs of stabilization. He noted that USD/JPY has moved modestly in favor of yen strength.
The dollar index rose slightly by 0.06% to 99.61 following a two-day decline, while the euro dipped 0.05% to $1.1532. The yen weakened marginally to 159 per dollar, and sterling remained steady at $1.3355.
The greenback had surged to a 10-month high late last week, driven by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices that pushed investors toward safer U.S. assets.
Highlighting the broader impact of the crisis, Trump announced he would delay a planned trip to Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. Takaichi is expected to leave for Washington later Wednesday.
Analysts at Mizuho Securities noted that even if the conflict drags on, equities could rebound, supporting commodity-linked currencies like the Australian dollar, as well as currencies of oil-importing nations such as the yen and euro. However, they expect limited downside for USD/JPY, partly due to the Japanese government’s preference for a weaker yen.
Attention now turns to central banks, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its decision Wednesday, followed by the ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan a day later. All are widely expected to hold rates steady, though markets will closely watch their outlooks on inflation and growth amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Expectations for Fed rate cuts have been trimmed to around 25 basis points this year. Meanwhile, traders are now pricing in more than one ECB rate hike in 2026—a notable shift from earlier expectations of potential cuts.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar gained 0.1% to $0.7109, and the New Zealand dollar rose 0.05% to $0.586. In crypto markets, bitcoin slipped 0.40% to $74,257.80, while Ethereum edged up 0.22% to $2,333.60.
For investors aiming to build reliable passive income and long-term wealth, dividend stocks continue to stand out as some of the most dependable assets. Among the most consistently favored names are The Coca-Cola Company and Walmart Inc..
Both companies belong to the elite group known as Dividend Kings — firms that have increased their dividends for at least 50 consecutive years. Their proven resilience and steady growth make them particularly attractive for long-term investors. Whether constructing a retirement portfolio or seeking stable income-generating holdings, these two consumer giants remain strong candidates.
Coca-Cola and Walmart: Enduring Dividend Leaders
Coca-Cola has delivered 63 straight years of dividend increases, reinforcing its reputation as a cornerstone income stock. It currently offers a yield of around 2.65%, supported by solid price performance, with shares up more than 10% year-to-date and over 77% in the past five years.
Its strength lies beyond dividends. With a portfolio of 32 billion-dollar brands, a deeply loyal global customer base, and a localized production strategy that helps mitigate tariff pressures, Coca-Cola continues to maintain a competitive edge that investors value.
Walmart, on the other hand, has raised its dividend for 53 consecutive years and operates the world’s largest retail network, spanning over 5,000 stores in the U.S. and nearly 11,000 globally. While its dividend yield is lower at roughly 0.79%, its total return profile is exceptional — the stock has surged more than 200% over five years, far outpacing the S&P 500.
Importantly, Walmart’s growth is no longer tied solely to its physical stores. Its e-commerce division expanded 24% year-over-year in fiscal Q4 2026, while its Walmart+ subscription service continues to grow, adding a high-margin recurring revenue stream.
Both companies operate within the consumer defensive sector, meaning demand for their products remains stable regardless of economic conditions. Essentials like food, beverages, and household goods are always needed, making these businesses naturally resilient. Combined with decades of disciplined dividend growth, this stability underpins their role as long-term portfolio anchors.
Stock Snapshot: Performance and Market Outlook
As of mid-March 2026, Coca-Cola trades at $77.49 with a market capitalization of roughly $333 billion. It has a trailing P/E ratio of 25.49 and generated $3.04 in earnings per share over the past year, consistently exceeding analyst expectations. The company also boasts a strong return on equity of over 43%, alongside annual revenue nearing $48 billion and profit margins above 27%.
Analyst sentiment remains positive, with an average price target of $83.36. Notably, Barclays recently raised its target to $83 while maintaining an overweight rating.
Walmart trades around $126.07, with a market value exceeding $1 trillion. Its higher P/E ratio of 46.17 reflects the premium investors are willing to pay for its consistent growth and execution.
Over the past 12 months, Walmart generated more than $713 billion in revenue and nearly $22 billion in net income, along with strong free cash flow of $7.77 billion — supporting both dividend increases and ongoing investments.
Analysts remain optimistic. Mizuho Financial Group rates the stock as outperform, while Tigress Financial Partners recently lifted its price target to $150.
Overall, both stocks demonstrate not only dependable income potential but also strong capital appreciation. Coca-Cola has outperformed the broader market so far in 2026, while Walmart’s nearly 202% five-year gain highlights its ability to generate superior long-term returns. Investors holding these names benefit from a powerful combination of rising dividends and sustained growth that often matches or exceeds market benchmarks.
THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN 