EUR/USD stays range-bound as Iran tensions lead, says Commerzbank.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke maintains that geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran conflict continue to be the dominant force driving EUR/USD, overshadowing upcoming US indicators such as ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). She highlights that recent US labor data has been inconsistent and is unlikely to meaningfully influence the dollar. As a result, EUR/USD is expected to remain within its recent range unless there is a clear escalation or easing of tensions in the Middle East, which is currently acting as a cap on major price movements.

Praefcke notes that attention will still turn to incoming US macro data, beginning with JOLTS job openings—which came in somewhat soft—followed by the ADP report and the official payrolls release. While a strong ADP reading might offer the dollar modest support, a weaker NFP figure could exert downward pressure.

However, given the recent volatility and lack of clear direction in employment data, she believes these figures will likely remain inconclusive. April job growth is expected to be moderate, suggesting little chance of a decisive signal emerging. Consequently, unless there are significant surprises, the data is unlikely to drive the USD in any meaningful way.

In her view, the broader narrative remains unchanged: until there are concrete signs of either de-escalation or escalation in the Middle East conflict, other factors—including US economic data—will take a back seat. Only a clear shift in the geopolitical backdrop is likely to push EUR/USD out of its established range.