Gold Climbs Above $4,650 as US Dollar Weakens and Treasury Buybacks Support Demand
Gold price extends its rally to around $4,670, marking its highest level in more than three months during early Asian trading on Wednesday.
A weaker US Dollar and declining Treasury yields continue to support demand for the precious metal.
The Trump administration expanded secondary sanctions on Iran, increasing geopolitical and inflation-related risks.
Gold (XAU/USD) rises toward $4,670, its strongest level since May 14, as the precious metal benefits from broad US Dollar weakness and expectations surrounding the US Treasury’s bond buyback program.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently indicated that Treasury buybacks could exceed $4 billion, following plans to double purchases of longer-dated government securities. The prospect of reduced Treasury supply has pushed longer-term yields lower and encouraged short-covering in the bond market, indirectly supporting gold.
A weaker Greenback makes USD-denominated gold more affordable for international buyers, while lower Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are also gaining attention. The Trump administration has expanded secondary sanctions against entities and countries maintaining business relationships with Iran. Escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran could fuel concerns over energy prices and inflation, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.
However, higher inflation expectations and the possibility of future Fed rate hikes could limit gold’s upside, as higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-interest-bearing bullion.
Markets will closely watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday for fresh clues about the US interest-rate outlook. Any hawkish signals from Fed officials could trigger some profit-taking in gold.
Gold Rally May Be Vulnerable to Macro Risks
TD Securities cautions that the latest gold rally could prove premature. With markets still pricing in potential rate hikes into 2027 and energy prices remaining a significant risk, the bank believes the current move may face challenges before gold can establish another sustained run toward record highs.
Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Remains Bullish but Overbought
Gold maintains a bullish near-term structure on the daily chart, trading comfortably above its 100-day SMA and the Bollinger middle band. The price is now approaching the upper portion of the Bollinger range, while the 14-day RSI near 73 indicates overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial support is located around $4,380, corresponding to the 100-day SMA, followed by the Bollinger middle band near $4,340. A deeper correction could bring the lower Bollinger band around $3,955 into focus.
To the upside, $4,725 represents the key resistance level near the upper Bollinger band. A sustained daily close above this area could reinforce the bullish trend and expose gold to further gains. Conversely, failure to break above $4,725 may trigger consolidation or a pullback as overbought conditions ease.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Above $69 as Markets Await US PCE Inflation Data
Silver price (XAG/USD) rises nearly 1% to around $69.40, supported by falling oil prices and easing concerns over energy supply disruptions.
Iran and Oman have resumed discussions aimed at establishing a temporary maritime corridor to facilitate safer navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Investors turn their attention to the US July PCE inflation report and the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) advances toward $69.40 during Wednesday’s Asian session, extending its recovery as crude oil prices decline. The move comes amid growing optimism that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nearly one-fifth of global energy supplies, could gradually resume.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi reportedly discussed an interim framework designed to restore safe maritime traffic through the strategic waterway. The development has reduced concerns over a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.
Lower oil prices could ease inflationary pressures and reduce expectations for aggressive interest-rate hikes from major central banks. This environment tends to benefit non-yielding assets such as silver.
Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July, due at 12:30 GMT. Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to remain at 3.3% YoY, while monthly growth is forecast at 0.2%, up from 0.1% in June.
The Jackson Hole Symposium will also be a major market catalyst this week, with investors looking for further signals about the Fed’s approach to inflation and interest rates.
Jackson Hole Could Shape the Fed Rate Outlook
TD Securities views Friday’s Jackson Hole event as the week’s key macroeconomic risk. Investors are expected to focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s prepared remarks for clearer guidance on the central bank’s inflation mandate.
The bank expects the Fed to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, although it notes that persistently elevated inflation and a stabilized labor market could shift policymakers’ attention further toward price stability.
If the Federal Reserve makes a policy move this year, TD Securities believes a rate hike could be more likely than a rate cut, potentially limiting silver’s upside.
On the daily chart, XAG/USD trades around $69.17, remaining comfortably above its 20-day EMA at $65.12. The sustained distance above this dynamic support level keeps the short-term outlook bullish.
The 14-day RSI stands at 64.65, indicating positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory. This suggests that buyers retain control without the market showing clear signs of exhaustion.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA around $65.12 represents the first major support level. A sustained break below it could weaken the near-term bullish structure.
To the upside, the June 17 high at $71.56 is the key resistance level. A decisive break above this barrier could reinforce the bullish trend and open the way toward higher levels.
XAG/USD retreats as buyers struggle to break above the $70.00 resistance level.
The RSI remains bullish but is weakening, pointing to fading short-term momentum.
A drop below $68.42 could open the door to further declines toward $65.64 and $62.19.
Silver (XAG/USD) reversed lower on Monday, falling 0.59% as buyers failed to break above the $70.00 threshold. The rejection triggered a pullback toward the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $68.42, with XAG/USD trading around $68.52 after reaching an intraday high of $69.92.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Despite the recent decline, Silver’s broader uptrend remains intact as the price holds near the 100-day SMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory, although weakening momentum suggests buyers are losing some short-term strength.
The higher-high and higher-low structure continues to favor further upside. However, bulls need to reclaim the $70.00 level to target the 200-day SMA at $72.13. A sustained move above that level could shift attention toward the May 25 cycle high at $78.83.
On the downside, the 100-day SMA at $68.42 remains the first key support. A decisive break below it could expose the August 20 low at $65.64, followed by the August 19 swing low at $62.19. Further weakness could bring the 50-day SMA at $61.34 into focus.
U.S. stock futures were largely unchanged on Monday evening after Wall Street closed mixed, with technology stocks under pressure as investors assessed new U.S. economic measures targeting Iran and looked ahead to a busy week of potentially market-moving events.
Around 20:50 ET, S&P 500 Futures were flat at 7,669.25, while Nasdaq 100 Futures slipped 0.1% to 29,089.75. Dow Jones Futures were little changed at 53,479.0.
Futures had traded lower earlier in the session as weakness in semiconductor stocks and caution ahead of Nvidia’s earnings weighed on sentiment.
During Monday’s regular session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.8%. Nvidia shares dropped 2.9%, while semiconductor peers such as Micron Technology and Broadcom also fell, putting additional pressure on the technology-heavy indexes.
Geopolitical developments were another focus for investors as Washington increased economic pressure on Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned countries conducting business with Tehran that they could face secondary sanctions, while the U.S. administration described its latest measures as an “economic D-Day” for Iran.
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday following a steep decline a day earlier, providing some relief to the bond market. Brent crude traded below $92 a barrel as markets assessed the potential impact of the new U.S. measures.
Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined by around 3 basis points to approximately 4.70%, while the 30-year yield eased to about 5.23%. Both yields had climbed to multi-year highs last week.
Bond yields also came under pressure after CNBC reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent could potentially use the Treasury Department’s nearly $1 trillion Treasury General Account to finance an expansion of government bond buybacks.
Still, Nvidia is expected to remain the key market focus. The chipmaker is scheduled to release its fiscal second-quarter 2027 results after Wednesday’s closing bell. Investors will closely examine the company’s guidance for signs that the enormous investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to be justified.
Markets are also preparing for the release of July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data later this week, a closely watched indicator for the Federal Reserve.
The annual Jackson Hole symposium begins Thursday, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to speak on Friday. His comments could provide fresh clues about the future direction of U.S. interest rates.
With Nvidia’s earnings, inflation figures, Federal Reserve signals and geopolitical developments all arriving in quick succession, markets have limited room for disappointment. The combination of these catalysts could determine whether the recent equity rally is able to regain momentum.
Bitcoin remains capped below the $80,000 resistance, with $77,000 acting as key near-term support.
Ethereum pulls back toward the $2,400 demand area despite recording $697 million in weekly ETF inflows.
XRP extends its decline following an overheated rally, with the RSI indicating overbought conditions.
The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a broad pullback on Monday as investors turn toward profit-taking following last week’s strong rally. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading slightly lower, with gains constrained below the $80,000 level and immediate support around $77,000.
Ethereum (ETH), meanwhile, remains above near-term support at $2,400 but has yet to build enough momentum to challenge the next major resistance at $2,600. Ripple (XRP) is hovering near $1.48 as its momentum fades after surging 72% last week, climbing from around $1.00 to a peak near $1.70.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP ETFs attract strong inflows
Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) experienced a significant increase in investor demand, recording $1.92 billion in net inflows through Friday last week. This represented the strongest weekly inflow since October and signaled a notable improvement in risk appetite. Total cumulative inflows increased to $53.71 billion, compared with $51.79 billion the previous week.
Ethereum spot ETFs also saw a sharp rebound in demand, attracting approximately $697 million in inflows through Friday. This was a substantial turnaround from the $2.26 million in outflows recorded the week before. Cumulative inflows subsequently rose to $12.15 billion from $11.45 billion.
Institutional interest in XRP also strengthened, with XRP-related ETFs recording $40 million in inflows through Friday, significantly higher than the $2.25 million registered the previous week. SoSoValue data shows cumulative inflows of approximately $1.55 billion, while total assets under management reached $1.33 billion.
If this stronger demand for crypto investment products continues, it could provide additional support for the broader cryptocurrency market and improve its recovery prospects. However, traders should remain cautious, as renewed profit-taking may limit further gains and potentially trigger a deeper market correction.
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Faces Resistance Near $80,000
Bitcoin is trading around $77,240, remaining comfortably above its major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and preserving a bullish short-term outlook. The 50-day EMA at $66,777, 100-day EMA at $67,410, and 200-day EMA at $71,805 are all positioned below the current price, supporting the underlying uptrend. The SuperTrend indicator also remains below Bitcoin at $70,570, further confirming the positive technical structure.
However, Bitcoin has pulled back after approaching the key $80,000 resistance level. Momentum indicators suggest the market may need to consolidate before attempting another move higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 78, firmly in overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above zero with a strong positive histogram. This combination indicates that bullish momentum is still present but increasingly stretched.
Immediate support is located around $77,000, while the 200-day EMA near $71,805 provides a stronger technical floor. A deeper correction could bring the SuperTrend level at $70,570 into focus, followed by the 100-day and 50-day EMAs at $67,410 and $66,777, respectively. Given the elevated RSI and MACD readings, traders may find better risk-reward opportunities by waiting for pullbacks toward these support zones rather than chasing Bitcoin near current highs.
Altcoin Outlook: Ethereum and XRP Maintain Bullish Structures
Ethereum is trading near $2,444 and continues to hold well above its major moving averages, keeping the short-term outlook constructive. The price remains comfortably above the 50-day EMA at approximately $1,985 and the 100-day EMA near $1,973, while the 200-day EMA around $2,141 provides additional confirmation of the broader bullish trend.
Momentum remains strong, with the MACD staying in positive territory and the RSI near 77. However, the overbought RSI suggests that Ethereum’s recent advance may be becoming stretched and could require a period of consolidation.
Immediate support is positioned around $2,400, followed by the 200-day EMA at $2,141. Further downside could bring the $1,985-$1,973 area into focus, where the 50-day and 100-day EMAs create a strong support cluster. On the upside, a sustained move above $2,600 could open the door toward the psychological $3,000 level.
XRP is trading around $1.45 after a powerful rebound, with the price now positioned well above its key moving averages. XRP has moved above the 50-day EMA at $1.14, 100-day EMA at $1.18, and 200-day EMA at $1.35, highlighting a strong bullish impulse.
The RSI near 77 indicates that XRP is also firmly overbought, while the positive MACD confirms that upward momentum remains strong. Nevertheless, the stretched technical conditions increase the possibility of short-term consolidation or a pullback.
The SuperTrend indicator at $1.25 represents the first significant downside support and could attract buyers if XRP retreats. The reclaimed 200-day EMA at $1.35, followed by the 100-day and 50-day EMAs at $1.18 and $1.14, respectively, provides additional support underneath the market. A healthy correction toward $1.25 could allow momentum to reset before XRP attempts another leg higher.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Recognized as the Fastest-Growing Company in the Middle East and Cyprus for two consecutive years, Capital.com is one of the most dynamic brokers in the industry, serving more than 880,000 clients and earning a strong reputation for continuous innovation. The company offers one of the largest cryptocurrency CFD portfolios available, with access to over 450 digital assets.
Overall Review
Capital.com caters to both beginners and experienced traders. For newcomers, the platform provides a user-friendly demo account that helps users become familiar with charts, positions, margin principles, and technical indicators, along with a comprehensive range of educational resources. Traders also benefit from 24/7 multilingual customer support available worldwide. With flexible position sizing, users can effectively manage their risk exposure.
Experienced traders will also find Capital.com highly appealing. The platform features intuitive charting tools, drawing instruments, and more than 100 technical indicators to support advanced market analysis. Through leveraged trading, traders can control larger positions with a lower marginalthough it is important to understand that leverage increases both potential profits and losses. In addition, the broker offers exceptionally fast execution speeds, averaging 0.014 seconds*, as well as a streamlined withdrawal process, with 99% of withdrawal requests processed within 24 hours in 2026.
Pros and Cons
Pros
Intuitive and user-friendly interface across devices
Access to 5,000+ CFD markets
More than 100 technical analysis tools
Commission-free trading (other fees apply)
Average trade execution speed of 0.014 seconds (in-house server infrastructure)
Cons
Services are not available to U.S. clients
Only CFDs products are offered
Trust & Safety
A Reliable Trading Environment
Choosing a trustworthy broker is essential, and Capital.com takes this responsibility seriously. The company prioritizes regulatory compliance and employs robust security measures to safeguard clients’ funds and personal information.
Regulation: The Capital.com group companies are licensed and regulated by several leading financial authorities, including the UK’s FCA, Cyprus’ CySEC, Australia’s ASIC, the Bahamas’ SCB, and the UAE’s SCA. These licenses require the broker to adhere to strict industry standards, providing traders with greater protection and confidence. The clients from Vietnam are served by Capital.com Online Investments Ltd regulated by the Securities Commission of The Bahamas (SCB).
Fraud Prevention: To help prevent fraud, Capital.com utilizes advanced encryption technology, rigorous identity verification procedures, and continuous monitoring systems to detect and prevent unauthorized access, helping keep client accounts secure.
Client Fund Protection: Security is a core component of Capital.com’s operations. A key element of this is the use of segregated client accounts, ensuring that customer funds are kept separate from the company’s operational finances. This approach enhances transparency and provides an additional layer of protection for traders.
Regulatory Status
Regulatory Authority
Status
ASIC (Australia)
Yes
CySEC (Cyprus)
Yes
DFSA (Dubai)
No
SCB (Bahamas)
Yes
CMA (UAE)
Yes
EFSA
No
FCA (United Kingdom)
Yes
FMA (New Zealand)
No
FSA (Seychelles)
No
FSCA (South Africa)
No
FSC
No
FI
No
JFSA (Japan)
No
MAS (Singapore)
No
Trading Instruments
Access to a Diverse Range of Markets
Capital.com provides access to more than 5,000 CFD markets, covering stocks, indices, commodities, forex, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs. With over 450 cryptocurrency CFDs available, it is one of the largest crypto CFD providers in the industry. The platform continuously expands its product offering, adding everything from futures-based and cash indices to agricultural commodities and sector-focused ETFs.
Traders can access CFDs on:
More than 4,000 stocks, including Tesla, Amazon, Meta, and emerging-market equities
Over 125 currency pairs, including major, minor, and exotic pairs
More than 450 digital assets
Major global indices, from the US 500 and Germany 40 to regional benchmarks
Commodities, including gold, crude oil, natural gas, oats, lean hogs, lumber, and more
ETFs tracking indices, gold, industry sectors, and other investment themes
New additions, including futures-based CFDs linked to volatility, emissions, and EU indices
Capital.com is among the fastest CFD brokers when it comes to listing new markets. For example, when TrumpCoin and MelaniaCoin launched on a Friday, they became available for trading on Capital.com by the following Monday, demonstrating the platform’s rapid integration capabilities. The broker is also quick to introduce newly listed IPO stocks, allowing traders to gain timely access to emerging opportunities.
Available Trading Instruments
Trading Instrument
Available
Commodity CFDs
Yes
Forex CFDs
Yes
Digital Asset CFDs
Yes
ETF CFDs
Yes
Futures Contracts
No
Index CFDs
Yes
Stock CFDs
Yes
Bonds
No
Options
No
Account Types
Options for Every Trader
Capital.com offers a diverse range of account types, carefully designed to meet the individual needs and preferences of traders at different experience levels. The broker focuses on delivering a customizable trading experience that prioritizes flexibility and user-centric features.
Demo Account
For new traders or those looking to refine their strategies, Capital.com provides a valuable demo account. This risk-free environment allows traders to simulate real-market conditions, develop their skills, and build confidence without using real money.
Personal Account
Capital.com’s standard retail account provides access to a CFD account. Retail clients benefit from negative balance protection, access to more than 5,000 markets, regulated leverage, and more.
Account Type Availability
Account Type / Feature
Available
Demo Account
Yes
Swap-Free Account
Yes*
Managed Account
No
Suitable for Beginners
Yes
Suitable for Professionals
Yes
U.S. Client Accounts
No
Eligibility is based on the client’s country of residence.
Commissions and Fees
Transparent Pricing for Informed Trading
At Capital.com, transparent pricing means no hidden fees—just clear and straightforward access to the markets. Here is what clients can expect:
No commission on any market (other fees apply)
No deposit or withdrawal fees and no custody fees (other fees apply)
No overnight fees on most 1:1 leveraged CFD positions*
Competitive spreads – the broker primarily generates revenue from spreads rather than hidden fees
Low-cost forex trading – the average EUR/USD spread is 0.67 pips, below the industry average
Overnight funding applies for Natural Gas, US Cocoa, Volatility Index (VIX), and forex pairs with Turkish Lira (TRY), regardless of leverage
Minimum Deposit
Capital.com has a low barrier to entry. Traders can start with a minimum deposit of just $120 when funding via card and Apple Pay. Minimum deposit requirements may vary for bank transfers.
Trading Fees
The broker’s trading costs are conveniently incorporated into the spread, allowing traders to understand their costs upfront without unexpected charges.
Account Fees
No. Group entity charges account maintenance or inactivity fees, giving clients greater flexibility in managing their accounts without additional costs.
Deposit Fees
Traders can fund their Capital.com accounts without being charged a deposit fee. However, fees may still be imposed by banks, credit card providers, or other third-party payment service providers. Capital.com is not responsible for such charges.
Available payment methods include instant bank transfers, Apple Pay, major credit cards, and various other options depending on jurisdiction.
Withdrawal Fees
Capital.com does not charge withdrawal fees. However, banks, credit card providers, or other third-party payment providers may impose their own charges. Capital.com is not responsible for these fees.
Overnight Fees
Overnight charges may vary and apply to most positions held overnight. Capital.com does not charge overnight fees on most CFDs with 1:1 leverage.
Overnight funding applies for Natural Gas, US Cocoa, Volatility Index (VIX), and forex pairs with Turkish Lira (TRY), regardless of leverage.
Currency Conversion Fees
When transactions—including, but not limited to, profits, losses, and overnight financing—need to be converted to or from your account’s default currency, a currency conversion fee will be applied to the prevailing exchange rate at the time of conversion.
Guaranteed Stop-Loss Fees
Capital.com charges a fee for using guaranteed stop-loss orders as a risk-management tool once such is executed.
Trading Platforms
Empowering Traders with User-Friendly Options
Capital.com offers a range of trading platforms equipped with features designed to facilitate informed trading, market analysis, and risk management. The platforms provide advanced charting tools, including technical indicators and drawing tools, to help traders analyze price movements and patterns. The user-friendly interfaces cater to both beginners and experienced traders, offering intuitive navigation and customization options. In addition, TradingView integration enhances the overall charting experience. However, it is important to note that CFD trading is complex and carries a high level of risk.
Compatibility with MetaTrader 4 (MT4) and MetaTrader 5 (MT5) enables advanced technical analysis. Although not explicitly stated, traders can utilize sophisticated tools to manage risk and optimize their strategies.
Capital.com’s proprietary platform is designed to enhance the trading experience, with a strong emphasis on user-focused design and innovation. The trading platforms are compatible with both Windows and Mac, providing multi-device access for greater flexibility and convenience.
Web Trading Platform
Capital.com’s web-based trading platform provides convenient access to the markets without requiring software installation. Traders can access charts, place trades, and manage their portfolios directly through their web browser.
Mobile Trading App
The broker offers user-friendly mobile trading apps for both Android and iOS devices, allowing traders to stay connected to the markets and make informed decisions while on the go.
Desktop Trading Platform
There is currently no dedicated desktop version of the platform available. However, traders can access Capital.com through its online web platform, which can be used on both PC and Mac.
Special Features
Decision-Making Support
Capital.com is a leading broker known for providing comprehensive support to traders. The broker offers real-time price alerts and push notifications to keep traders informed about market volatility, along with trend-discovery tools to help them make timely decisions.
The platform’s comparison and analysis features allow traders to evaluate their strategies, while advanced risk-management tools help create a more controlled trading environment. Capital.com’s commitment to education is evident through its structured courses, videos, articles, glossary, and webinars. In addition, the broker continuously enhances its demo trading experience, helping traders refine their skills without putting real capital at risk.
Capital.com also tailors content and insights to individual preferences. Overall, Capital.com stands out as a broker that empowers traders with innovative tools and resources to support their analysis.
Research and Education
Supporting Knowledge Growth
Capital.com is committed to providing traders with valuable educational resources to support their trading journey. While its educational offering is substantial, there is still room for further improvement compared with some industry leaders.
Knowledge Center Overview: Capital.com’s learning center is well structured and provides a broad range of educational materials in easily accessible formats, catering to traders of all experience levels.
Training Content Comparison: Capital.com offers extensive educational content covering everything from fundamental concepts to advanced strategies. The broker provides articles, video tutorials, and webinars to accommodate different learning preferences. However, some leading competitors offer a broader and more in-depth range of educational materials.
Training Advancements: Capital.com has made significant progress in recent years by introducing interactive webinars, expert-led workshops, and in-depth trading guides to enhance the learning experience.
Content Sources: Capital.com’s educational content draws on insights from experienced traders, financial experts, and market analysts, providing traders with a diverse range of perspectives.
Areas for Improvement: Capital.com could further enhance engagement and learning outcomes by introducing interactive courses featuring quizzes and progress tracking. Diversifying content formats, such as podcasts and case studies, could also enrich the overall learning experience.
Video Focus: Capital.com has a substantial library of educational videos covering topics ranging from platform navigation to advanced trading strategies. These videos cater well to traders across different skill levels, although more in-depth discussions could further enhance the video-learning experience.
Expanding Educational Resources: To better serve traders, Capital.com could consider expanding its range of educational topics to include advanced technical analysis and risk-management strategies, providing traders with deeper and more practical insights.
Customer Support
Trade with Confidence
Capital.com is committed to meeting its clients’ needs by providing comprehensive, multilingual customer support designed to address questions and concerns promptly.
The broker offers multiple communication channels, making it convenient for traders to access assistance whenever needed.
24/7 live customer support is available, allowing traders to connect with live representatives for timely assistance. Notably, Capital.com extends its support services beyond standard trading hours, enabling traders to seek assistance even when the markets are closed.
The broker provides multichannel support, including a user-friendly live chat feature accessible through its website and Capital.com trading platform. This enables real-time communication with knowledgeable support representatives. Traders can also contact the broker via email, providing a documented channel for inquiries and feedback.
Capital.com further enhances its support services through a comprehensive FAQ section and Help Center, offering quick answers to common questions and valuable self-help resources. The broker also provides educational articles and guides addressing common trading-related concerns.
Considering these customer-focused services, Capital.com’s customer support stands out for its multichannel assistance and availability beyond standard business hours.
However, there is still room for improvement in terms of the accessibility and response times of customer support representatives.
Account Opening
Streamlined and User-Friendly
Opening an account with Capital.com is a straightforward process designed to give traders a seamless start to their trading journey. The broker’s user-friendly interface and step-by-step guidance make the registration process easy, even for beginners.
Personal Information: Traders are required to provide basic personal details such as their name, email address, and phone number. They will also need to answer several questions to determine whether they meet the local requirements for CFD trading.
Verification Documents: Applicants must submit identification documents, proof of address, and any other required documentation to verify their account.
Account Opening Time: The entire registration process, including document verification, generally takes a short amount of time. Once all required documents have been submitted, accounts are typically verified within a few hours or less.
Capital.com’s account-opening process stands out for its user-friendly interface, fast verification procedures, and availability of multiple account types. However, there is potential to further improve the process by providing additional educational resources during the application stage.
Deposits and Withdrawals
Convenient and Secure
Capital.com ensures that traders can enjoy a secure and convenient fund-management experience through a variety of deposit and withdrawal options. The broker prioritizes financial security by using advanced encryption and complying with strict regulatory requirements, including segregated client funds and anti-money laundering guidelines.
Deposits: Traders can fund their accounts through secure methods such as bank transfers, major credit/debit cards, and various e-wallet options*, providing flexibility and speed when depositing funds.
Withdrawals: Withdrawals can be made via bank transfer, eligible credit/debit cards, or e-wallets, providing clients with convenient and accessible options. Withdrawal processing times may vary depending on the selected method and the broker’s verification procedures.
Capital.com does not charge fees for deposits or withdrawals. However, third-party payment providers may impose their own fees.
Overall, Capital.com’s deposit and withdrawal services, combined with strong security measures and a commitment to fee transparency, contribute to its strong reputation for fund management. However, improvements in withdrawal processing times for certain payment methods could further enhance the overall experience.
The availability of certain payment methods may vary by country.
Conclusion
Capital.com is an attractive option for traders, offering a user-friendly platform, a wide range of trading instruments, and strong regulatory compliance. It caters to both beginners and experienced traders, although it does not accept U.S. clients and may charge overnight and some other fees in certain circumstances. Overall, Capital.com ranks among the leading options in the industry, offering a comprehensive trading experience.
However, before making a decision, it is important to research the broker thoroughly and determine whether Capital.com is suitable for your trading objectives and risk tolerance. Trading always involves risk, so conducting thorough research, reviewing the terms and conditions, and making informed decisions are essential steps before opening an account with Capital.com or any other broker.
Overnight funding applies for Natural Gas, US Cocoa, Volatility Index (VIX), and forex pairs with Turkish Lira (TRY), regardless of leverage.
Risk Warning: 79.75% ofretail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Ready to improve your trading knowledge? Explore our Knowledge page for practical guides, insights, and educational resources.
Genuine community requires time, effort, shared values, and sustained commitment—qualities that cannot simply be packaged, commoditized, and optimized for profit or delivered through a government program.
That creates a fundamental problem in a profit-driven economy: durability is often less profitable than planned replacement. To maximize revenue, products are increasingly designed to become obsolete, unsupported, or outdated, whether through planned obsolescence, shorter product cycles, discontinued software support, constant upgrades, or relentless cost-cutting that gradually erodes quality.
The same profit logic also weakens genuine competition. Because intense competition can squeeze margins, companies have incentives to eliminate it through consolidation, monopolies, and cartels. Consumers are then presented with a manufactured version of “competition” that creates the appearance of choice, even when supposedly competing brands belong to the same conglomerate or offer essentially identical products at similarly high prices.
Once a monopoly or cartel controls an industry, disposability becomes the natural outcome. Durable products and genuinely high-quality services can reduce repeat purchases, making them less attractive to businesses focused on maximizing profits. With meaningful competition removed, consumers are left choosing between different versions of essentially the same low-quality, expensive offering.
The enormous marketing industry helps maintain this illusion of choice. It persuades consumers that they are exercising meaningful freedom while masking a system in which the available options have become increasingly similar. The result is a form of privatized control in which consumers appear to have endless choices but often encounter only different versions of the same underlying model.
The defining characteristic of disposable products and services is interchangeability. Once something becomes fully commoditized, its distinctive qualities disappear. One mass-produced breakfast cereal becomes difficult to distinguish from another; ultra-processed snacks become variations of the same formula; insurance policies become increasingly difficult to differentiate; and automated customer-service systems often deliver the same frustrating experience regardless of the company behind them.
Commoditization also makes globalized production and supply chains possible. When products, services, and even labor are interchangeable, companies can reproduce the same systems almost anywhere. The same products appear across markets, customer-service frustrations become universal, and digital systems increasingly trap people in identical automated loops.
Eventually, the logic of interchangeability reaches human beings themselves. As consumers and employees, people can increasingly be treated as interchangeable units within a global marketplace. Workers can be replaced by cheaper labor elsewhere, while consumers can be targeted and served through standardized systems designed for scale rather than individuality.
When a product reaches the end of its useful life, it is discarded or, occasionally, recycled. People who become economically obsolete face a less visible version of the same process. There is no enormous landfill for discarded workers; instead, individuals can simply be pushed aside, isolated in their homes, or left without meaningful economic participation.
Sometimes people are effectively “recycled” into lower-paying jobs or cheaper tiers of service. Someone may technically remain able to purchase healthcare, for example, while facing enormous deductibles and increasingly restrictive coverage. When the cost becomes unaffordable, people delay treatment and ultimately bear the consequences of a system that still technically considers them a customer.
The same process is visible in employment. Losing a stable job with benefits does not necessarily mean being excluded from the labor market. Instead, workers can be absorbed into the growing gig, delivery, and rideshare economy, where labor itself becomes increasingly interchangeable and commoditized. When workers eventually burn out, they can simply disappear from the system with little institutional responsibility for what happens next.
In a world where everything is disposable, repairing what is broken becomes economically inconvenient. If existing systems generate enormous profits, fundamentally redesigning them to make them affordable, durable, and genuinely competitive threatens those profits. Maintaining an inefficient system can therefore become more attractive than fixing it.
The preferred solution may then be technological substitution rather than structural reform. Instead of redesigning expensive or inefficient systems, companies can replace human workers with AI agents and automated processes. If governments ultimately absorb some of the social costs created by displaced workers, businesses can still view the transition as financially beneficial.
Yet there is a deeper irony in a world where everything is supposedly interchangeable and disposable: the things that matter most cannot be commoditized. Genuine community has value precisely because it is unique. It emerges from particular places, particular people, shared experiences, relationships, memories, trust, and history. Those qualities cannot be mass-produced or replaced with an interchangeable commercial product.
What can be sold, however, is the appearance of community. Billionaires can purchase private bunkers, while affluent consumers can enter exclusive gated developments filled with carefully designed amenities and manufactured social experiences. But these substitutes cannot automatically create authentic community, because genuine belonging requires something money and centralized systems struggle to manufacture: time, effort, shared values, trust, and meaningful relationships.
5 Black Swan Financial Trends That Emerged After 9/11
I want to focus on the kind of extreme, unexpected events that Nassim Nicholas Taleb famously called “Black Swans” in his 2007 book of the same name.
The ultimate Black Swan event occurred 25 years ago next month, when four hijacked, fuel-laden airliners were deliberately flown toward America’s financial and political centers—New York City and Washington, D.C.
But beyond the immediate human and geopolitical consequences, 9/11 also set in motion several surprising financial trends. Here are five of the most striking.
Surprise 1: From Budget Surpluses to $2 Trillion Annual Deficits
From 1998 through 2001, the U.S. government recorded four consecutive annual budget surpluses—the first four-year streak in roughly a century.
At the time, the national debt stood at around $5 trillion, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the debt could potentially be eliminated within a decade, by 2011.
That forecast proved wildly wrong.
Instead, the United States experienced its first four consecutive $1 trillion-plus annual budget deficits during Barack Obama’s first term, from 2009 through 2012.
Today, annual deficits are approaching $2 trillion, with little indication of meaningful relief. To put the scale into perspective, the CBO estimates that in July 2026 alone, the federal government recorded a monthly deficit larger than the annual deficits recorded in any year before the 2008 financial crisis.
That is an extraordinary transformation from where America stood in 2001.
Surprise 2: The Longest War in American History—and Perhaps More to Come
The explosion in federal spending was fueled in part by the “War on Terror” that followed 9/11.
Rather than being a single conflict, it evolved into prolonged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Afghanistan war lasted from 2001 to 2021, while the Iraq War began in 2003 and formally ended in 2011.
According to the U.S. Department of Defense, the direct cost of those wars launched during George W. Bush’s first term reached at least $1.47 trillion—far above the estimates offered by then-Vice President Dick Cheney in March 2003.
Broader estimates are even more staggering. According to Costs of War research, the United States has spent more than $8 trillion on post-9/11 wars and military operations across at least 85 countries, with the total economic burden potentially reaching $10 trillion to $14 trillion once veterans’ care and interest costs are included.
The irony is particularly striking in Afghanistan. The central objective was to find Osama bin Laden, the mastermind behind 9/11. Yet he remained at large for another decade before being discovered in Pakistan.
The result was a 20-year war whose costs vastly exceeded what most Americans could have imagined in September 2001.
And now, with tensions involving Iran, the possibility of additional military commitments remains an uncomfortable question.
Surprise 3: The “Free Money” Era and the Rise of Modern Monetary Theory
Another extraordinary development emerged from the aftermath of the financial crisis.
To support a weakened economy, the Federal Reserve adopted a Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and launched multiple rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE).
For roughly seven years, the federal funds rate remained between 0% and 0.25%.
Under Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, policymakers were determined to avoid the deflationary mistakes of the Great Depression. The Fed instead targeted approximately 2% inflation while using extremely low interest rates and large-scale asset purchases to inject liquidity into the financial system.
The result was an unprecedented monetary environment in which borrowing became extraordinarily cheap and liquidity appeared almost limitless.
It resembled an American experiment in what later became popularly associated with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT): enormous fiscal spending supported by extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy.
When the Fed eventually began raising rates during Donald Trump’s presidency, financial markets pushed back hard. The sharp market selloff in late 2018 helped demonstrate just how dependent markets had become on cheap money.
Surprise 4: Regulations Designed to Prevent Crises Created New Risks
The post-9/11 era also produced a sweeping expansion of government regulation and financial oversight.
Following the 2008 financial crisis, the Dodd-Frank Act introduced extensive new rules designed to reduce systemic risk and prevent another financial meltdown.
But financial markets have a habit of adapting.
As traditional banks and financial institutions faced tighter restrictions, capital and risk-taking increasingly migrated toward less-regulated areas of the financial system.
The growth of private funds and other alternative investment vehicles illustrates the problem. Investors seeking higher returns can still find highly leveraged or high-interest opportunities outside the most heavily regulated parts of the financial system.
The lesson is uncomfortable but familiar:
Regulation can change where risk lives without necessarily eliminating the risk itself.
You cannot legislate away human greed, excessive optimism, or reckless risk-taking. When one door closes, financial innovation often finds another.
Surprise 5: The Stock Market Kept Climbing Anyway
And then comes the biggest positive surprise.
Despite terrorism, two prolonged wars, enormous fiscal deficits, the 2008 financial crisis, unprecedented monetary intervention, rising regulation, geopolitical turmoil and repeated market shocks, U.S. stocks continued to climb dramatically after 9/11.
The gains have not always represented cheap valuations, and there have certainly been painful crashes along the way. But the long-term direction has remained remarkably resilient.
That resilience offers a reminder of Adam Smith’s famous observation in 1778 that “there is a lot of ruin in a nation.”
Britain survived the setbacks that followed the American victory at Saratoga. It survived the devastation of World War II. And the United States absorbed the enormous shocks of 9/11 and everything that followed.
Yet its economy continued to innovate, companies continued to generate profits, and investors continued to participate in the growth of American enterprise.
That may be the biggest Black Swan of all: despite everything thrown at it since September 11, 2001, the American economic machine kept moving forward.
Every few months, the same chart seems to appear in your feed. It shows what would have happened if you had invested just one dollar in the stock market a century ago—and how that single dollar could have grown into a considerable fortune.
The message underneath is almost always the same: buy and hold. Time in the market matters more than trying to predict the perfect entry point.
The idea is compelling, and for the most part, it is correct.
But there is one important detail those charts rarely mention: they were designed around an investor who does not actually exist.
If your goal is to build lasting wealth rather than simply admire historical market returns, you first need to understand how an investor thinks. And surprisingly few people explain that part before telling you to buy stocks and hold them forever.
The “Stocks for the Long Run” Story Has a Catch
Let’s give the long-term investing argument its due. It is not a false promise.
Over more than a century, U.S. equities have generally moved higher. Patient investors who own productive businesses have historically been rewarded. I am not suggesting that people should avoid stocks.
The problem is what those impressive long-term charts quietly assume about the person looking at them.
They assume you:
Have more than a century to invest.
Will never panic and sell during a downturn.
Will never need to withdraw your money at the wrong time.
Started investing when valuations were reasonable.
For an actual person with a career, a mortgage, children, and a fixed retirement date, those assumptions are unrealistic.
Once you remove them, the seemingly perfect chart becomes much less reassuring. The market shown in the chart is a smooth line rising over decades. The market investors actually experience is filled with crashes, recessions, corrections, and long periods of recovery.
You Don’t Get the Market’s 126-Year Average
The average return of the last century tells you something about history, but it does not tell you what your own investment experience will look like.
Most people do not begin serious investing until their 30s or later. They may have three or four decades to build wealth before retirement. That means they are likely to experience only a handful of major market cycles.
So while a 126-year average is useful historical information, it is not necessarily the return you will have available when you need to spend your money.
There is another uncomfortable reality: markets spend a surprising amount of time below previous highs.
The long-term upward trend is real, but investors do not experience that trend as a straight line. Much of the journey consists of recovering from losses and attempting to reach previous peaks.
That distinction matters because markets can grow wealth over time without delivering the smooth compounding path that many investors imagine.
Compounding works best when capital remains intact. A major permanent loss can dramatically change the mathematics.
Average Returns Can Hide Real Risk
Financial commentary often talks about stocks producing average annual returns of 8% to 10% over long periods. But those figures are historical averages, generally before inflation, taxes, fees, and the impact of large drawdowns.
Real investors do not receive an average return every year.
They experience a sequence of gains and losses.
That sequence matters enormously.
An investor who entered the market near a major valuation peak could spend many years simply recovering lost purchasing power. Reaching the original starting value is not the same thing as generating wealth.
Breaking even is not growth. It is simply recovering from a previous loss.
This becomes especially important as retirement approaches. Someone in their 20s may have decades to recover from a major bear market. Someone approaching retirement may not have that luxury.
Think Like an Investor, Not a Speculator
So what is the alternative?
The first step is understanding the difference between investing and speculation.
An investor buys an ownership interest in a business, considers what that business is worth, evaluates the price being paid, and manages the risk of being wrong.
A speculator is primarily focused on the market price and the possibility of selling the asset to someone else for more money later.
In simple terms:
Investors focus on value.
Speculators focus on price.
Speculation itself is not necessarily immoral or foolish. Some people deliberately speculate with money they can afford to lose and understand the risks involved.
The real danger comes when someone believes they are investing while actually speculating.
That creates a dangerous mismatch: they expect the security of long-term investing while taking the risks associated with short-term speculation.
You can see this behavior in meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, leveraged trades, short-dated options, and even sports betting.
The technology has changed, but the underlying psychology has not.
When people feel financially behind, the temptation to find a shortcut becomes even stronger. The desire for rapid wealth can turn speculation into something that looks like a financial plan.
That is precisely where things can go wrong.
The Margin of Safety
The distinction between investing and speculation is not a new concept.
Benjamin Graham and David Dodd emphasized the importance of analyzing an investment and demanding a reasonable degree of protection against being wrong.
That idea is commonly known as the margin of safety.
The principle is straightforward: pay less than what an asset is reasonably worth so that you have room for error.
If you estimate that a business is worth $100 per share, buying it at $50 provides considerably more protection than buying it at $120.
Of course, estimating value is never perfect. Your assumptions can be wrong. The business can deteriorate. The economy can change.
That is exactly why the margin of safety matters.
It provides a buffer between your estimate of value and the price you actually pay.
And sometimes the best investment decision is to do nothing.
If nothing is available at a sensible price, holding cash and waiting can be more rational than forcing money into an overpriced opportunity.
Patience is not inactivity. Sometimes patience is risk management.
Two Questions Every Investor Should Ask
Once you accept that your investing horizon is limited and that avoiding speculation matters, many investment decisions become much simpler.
Two questions become particularly important.
First: What price am I paying?
Valuation matters because the price you pay influences the return you can reasonably expect.
Pay too much for future earnings and your future returns may be disappointing even if the underlying business performs well.
Pay a reasonable price, and you create more room for attractive long-term returns.
This is not about predicting the exact market top or bottom. It is about recognizing that starting valuations influence future outcomes.
Second: How much time do I actually have?
This question is often overlooked.
A 25-year-old with decades until retirement, stable income, and the ability to keep contributing during downturns has a very different risk profile from a 58-year-old who expects to retire within a few years.
The market is the same.
The investor is not.
Time is one of the most valuable assets an investor has—and once it is gone, it cannot be recovered.
Does Buy and Hold Still Work?
Yes—but only when the circumstances are right.
For investors who have:
A 30-year-plus investment horizon.
Reasonable starting valuations.
Low investment costs.
Consistent contributions.
The discipline to stay invested during major downturns.
A diversified, low-cost index fund held for decades can be an exceptionally effective strategy.
The philosophy behind buy-and-hold investing remains powerful because it reduces two major sources of poor performance: high costs and emotional decision-making.
But notice how many conditions are attached.
The strategy works best when the investor can satisfy all of those requirements.
Real people, however, are not always perfectly patient. They may lose their jobs, face unexpected expenses, approach retirement, or panic during a severe market decline.
And the starting valuation can make a major difference even when two investors follow exactly the same strategy.
The strategy may not have failed the investor who started near a market peak.
The problem may simply have been the price paid at the beginning.
How to Start Investing With the Right Mindset
So where should a new investor begin?
Not with the latest stock tip.
Not with a hot sector.
And not with an app designed to make investing feel like a video game.
Start with the fundamentals:
Understand your financial goals.
Determine your investment time horizon.
Build an appropriate emergency reserve.
Understand the risk you can realistically tolerate.
Consider valuation before buying.
Keep costs and taxes under control.
Diversify your portfolio.
Have a plan for market downturns.
Avoid confusing speculation with investing.
Be willing to wait when attractive opportunities are unavailable.
None of this sounds particularly exciting.
It will not make you rich overnight, and it probably will not become a viral social-media post.
But this is how investors protect and grow capital over the long term.
The goal is not simply to participate in the market. The goal is to remain financially strong enough to stay invested through the entire journey.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed the week almost unchanged near 98.80 after briefly dipping into the 98.50 area before recovering. The Greenback remains close to its lowest level since May, with weaker Treasury yields playing a key role. The US Treasury’s decision to at least double buybacks of longer-term debt has pushed yields lower, weighing on the Dollar despite stronger-than-expected US business activity data.
Gold climbed above $4,600 to reach a three-month high, while the Australian Dollar advanced to a multi-month peak. Crude Oil also remained elevated near a four-week high as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued.
US Dollar Forecast: Key Events Ahead
The upcoming week is heavily weighted toward the second half, with limited Dollar catalysts early on. The main highlights arrive on Wednesday with the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, followed by Friday’s key events: new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote and the preliminary annual benchmark revision to US Nonfarm Payrolls.
With the Dollar already trading near recent lows, a dovish tone from Warsh or a significant downward revision to employment data could put additional pressure on the Greenback.
EUR/USD Outlook
EUR/USD finished the week around 1.1680, remaining below the psychological 1.1700 level after another failed attempt to break higher. With few major Eurozone catalysts before Friday’s inflation data, the pair is likely to remain primarily driven by Dollar movements and developments at Jackson Hole. A stronger Eurozone HICP reading could reduce expectations for further ECB easing and provide support for the Euro heading into month-end.
GBP/USD Outlook
GBP/USD ended the week around the mid-1.3600s after retreating from its midweek highs. With little significant UK economic data scheduled, the pair is likely to take its cues mainly from the US Dollar and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Trading could remain subdued before Friday before potentially seeing increased volatility.
USD/JPY Outlook
USD/JPY closed the week slightly above 159.00 as a softer Dollar was offset by continued Yen weakness caused by wide interest-rate differentials. Tokyo CPI data on Friday will be closely watched for clues about the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. Stronger inflation could reinforce expectations for a September rate hike and put downward pressure on USD/JPY.
AUD/USD Outlook
AUD/USD climbed toward 0.7170, reaching its highest level in several months and outperforming other major currencies. The RBA minutes kick off the week, but Tuesday’s monthly inflation report will be the key event. Headline inflation is expected to ease toward 3.2% from 3.8%. A weaker-than-expected reading could reduce remaining expectations for RBA tightening and challenge the Australian Dollar’s recent rally.
WTI Oil Outlook
WTI Crude ended the week in the high-$80s, close to a four-week high. With no major oil-specific economic releases ahead, geopolitical developments remain the main driver. Washington’s shift toward economic sanctions against Iran instead of additional military strikes has reduced immediate concerns about a supply disruption, although stalled negotiations continue to support oil prices.
Gold Outlook
Gold closed above $4,600 at a three-month high, supported by a weaker US Dollar, declining real yields and renewed safe-haven demand amid Middle East tensions. The upcoming PCE inflation data and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech will be crucial for the precious metal. A dovish signal from the new Fed Chair could extend Gold’s rally, while a more cautious stance on interest rates could trigger a deeper pullback.
Gold Climbs Above $4,600 as US Treasury Buybacks Pressure the US Dollar
Gold (XAU/USD) advances toward $4,625 in early Asian trading on Monday.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that government bond buybacks could exceed $4 billion.
Iran has dismissed the prospect of new US sanctions as a “desperate” attempt to pressure Tehran.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) extend their gains to around $4,625 during Monday’s early Asian session, reaching their highest level since May 15. The precious metal is benefiting from renewed weakness in the US Dollar following signals that the US Treasury could expand its bond buyback program.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last Thursday that the government could increase Treasury repurchases beyond $4 billion. The comments came one day after the department announced plans to double its purchases of longer-dated government securities.
The prospect of stronger Treasury support at the long end has contributed to lower Treasury yields and weighed on the US Dollar. Since gold is priced in USD, a weaker dollar generally makes the metal more affordable for international buyers, potentially boosting demand.
TD Securities Global Head of Commodity Strategy Bart Melek noted that technical factors are also supporting gold’s advance. He suggested that $4,700 could become the next target if the current momentum persists, while highlighting the decline in the US Dollar as an important driver of the rally.
However, rising energy prices amid persistent tensions in the Middle East could fuel inflation concerns and potentially increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes in the months ahead. Higher interest rates could limit gold’s upside, as the non-yielding asset tends to become less attractive when borrowing costs rise.
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected the threat of another round of US economic sanctions, describing the potential measures as a “desperate” attempt to pressure Tehran. According to Reuters, he argued that the new sanctions would not succeed in weakening Iran. US President Donald Trump recently announced plans to intensify economic pressure on the Iranian economy.
Treasury Buybacks Provide Support as the Fed Looks Beyond Energy Inflation
TD Securities said indications that the US Treasury intends to support longer-dated bonds could provide additional support for gold and other precious metals. The outlook is further strengthened by expectations that the Federal Reserve may look through a temporary rise in energy prices rather than immediately responding with tighter policy.
This combination could help gold maintain its elevated trading range and leave room for further gains as trend-following investors adjust their positions to the evolving policy environment.
Technical Analysis: Gold Maintains a Bullish Bias Despite Overbought Conditions
On the daily chart, XAU/USD retains a constructive short-term outlook after moving above both the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. These levels continue to reinforce the broader bullish trend.
However, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 70.81, indicating overbought conditions. This suggests that the recent upside momentum may be becoming stretched, particularly as gold approaches the upper Bollinger band.
On the upside, immediate resistance is located near the upper Bollinger band at approximately $4,675.80. A sustained break above this level could open the way for further gains.
On the downside, the current price zone may provide initial support, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,379.39 and the Bollinger middle band at $4,305.50. A deeper pullback could bring the lower Bollinger band near $3,935.20 into focus.
WTI Falls Below $85 as Traders Lock in Profits Ahead of New US Sanctions on Iran
WTI retreats as investors secure gains ahead of tougher US sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports and trading partners.
Ongoing Middle East tensions and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz fail to prevent a short-term decline in crude prices.
WTI maintains a bullish technical outlook while holding above its nine-period and 50-period EMAs.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil declines after two consecutive sessions of gains, trading near $84.80 per barrel during Monday’s Asian session. The pullback comes as traders take profits ahead of an expected US announcement on tougher sanctions against Iran.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington plans to introduce the “toughest” sanctions in history, describing the measures as an unprecedented effort to isolate Iran economically and pressure both Tehran and its trading partners to comply. The move could further tighten global energy supplies as Iranian oil exports face increasing disruptions and shipments to Chinese buyers decline amid the ongoing US naval blockade.
Iran has rejected the planned measures, calling them another unsuccessful attempt to weaken its economy. Iranian officials said the country has extensive experience dealing with blockades and remains capable of maintaining economic activity and international trade ties.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. Oil tanker traffic through the key energy corridor continues to run well below historical levels, keeping supply risks firmly in focus.
Strait of Hormuz Risks and Tight Diesel Inventories Support Oil Prices
Commerzbank commodity strategists said developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain a major focus for energy markets as geopolitical risks continue to influence short-term sentiment.
With few major economic reports scheduled, traders are also likely to monitor inventory data closely. Particularly tight diesel inventories could provide additional support for the broader oil market and help underpin Brent prices.
Technical Analysis: WTI Retains a Bullish Bias Despite the Pullback
WTI trades around $84.80 while maintaining a constructive technical outlook. The price remains above both the short-term nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating that underlying buying interest remains intact.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56.06, remaining in neutral-to-positive territory. This suggests that bullish momentum is steady without showing signs of being excessively stretched.
On the downside, the nine-period EMA at $83.91 provides the first level of support, followed by the 50-period EMA near $81.62. As long as WTI remains above these technical levels, the broader bullish structure stays intact, with potential dips likely to attract buyers rather than signal a major trend reversal.
The Nasdaq 100 ended the week lower, continuing to struggle to gain momentum above the psychologically important 30,000 level. Market participants remain cautious as uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook persists, while ongoing developments in the Middle East continue to influence investor sentiment.
Additional pressure came after reports that the U.S. Treasury plans to conduct significant buybacks of 30-year bonds next month, a move that appears to have unsettled markets in the short term. Despite the recent weakness, the broader picture remains largely unchanged. The Nasdaq 100 continues to trade within a long-term bullish trend, suggesting that the latest pullback has not yet altered the overall upward trajectory.
NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar also posted gains during the week, but its advance is encountering strong resistance in the 0.60–0.61 zone, an area that could limit further upside in the near term.
Compared with several other Asia-Pacific currencies, the kiwi has benefited from expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may maintain a relatively hawkish stance. However, the broader interest rate landscape continues to favor the United States, where yields remain comparatively attractive. As a result, the interest rate differential between the U.S. and New Zealand continues to provide underlying support for the U.S. dollar, potentially capping NZD/USD gains despite recent strength.
Gold
Gold prices rallied strongly during the week, breaking above the $4,500 level, a development that reinforces the metal’s underlying bullish momentum and highlights continued demand for safe-haven assets.
Despite the breakout, volatility is likely to remain elevated as investors navigate a complex mix of geopolitical tensions and evolving conditions in the U.S. Treasury market. These factors are expected to keep market sentiment fluid in the near term. Nevertheless, the broader outlook remains constructive, with gold continuing to trade within a well-established long-term uptrend, suggesting the recent advance may be part of a larger bullish continuation.
WTI Crude Oil
WTI crude oil remains highly volatile, with prices continuing to react sharply to developments in the Middle East. The unpredictable geopolitical situation means that any new headline could quickly trigger significant moves in the oil market.
The risk of further escalation remains a key concern, particularly given the possibility of disruptions to global oil supplies. While short-term price action is likely to remain choppy, the broader outlook for crude oil remains supported by geopolitical risk and the potential for supply constraints. Over the longer term, these factors could continue to provide upward pressure on oil prices.
DAX
The DAX remains under pressure, with investors closely monitoring concerns over Europe’s energy supply heading into the winter. Any deterioration in the energy situation could weigh on the German economy and create additional headwinds for the index.
Germany’s economy is heavily reliant on its industrial sector, making the DAX particularly sensitive to rising energy costs or potential supply disruptions. Against this backdrop, the 26,000 level remains a key area to watch, as traders assess whether the index can maintain its recent strength or face a deeper correction.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair remained highly volatile, with the U.S. dollar moving sharply against the Japanese yen throughout Friday’s session and capping off another turbulent trading week.
The 160 yen level remains a significant resistance area, likely to attract considerable attention from traders. Market participants are also keeping a close eye on the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening to support the yen, although there has been relatively little discussion of intervention recently.
Meanwhile, the widening interest-rate differential between the U.S. and Japan continues to support the carry trade, potentially keeping demand for USD/JPY elevated as traders seek to benefit from the yield gap between the two currencies.
USD/MXN
The U.S. dollar continued to weaken against the Mexican peso, with the peso benefiting from its relatively attractive yield. The ongoing interest-rate differential between the two countries remains a key factor supporting demand for the Mexican currency.
However, this trend could reverse quickly if global financial conditions deteriorate or a broader financial crisis emerges, as investors may move away from higher-yielding emerging-market currencies toward traditional safe-haven assets.
For now, USD/MXN remains firmly entrenched in a strong downtrend, keeping the broader outlook bearish for the pair.
EUR/USD
The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar this week, supported by broad-based weakness in the greenback. If the bullish momentum continues, the 1.19 level could become a longer-term target, although EUR/USD will first need to overcome resistance around 1.18.
In the event of a short-term correction, the 50-week EMA near 1.1550 remains an important potential support zone. Overall, the direction of the pair continues to be closely tied to interest-rate expectations and movements in the U.S. Treasury market, which remain key drivers of the dollar’s performance.
Many organisations invest heavily in growth strategies, technology, and operations, yet still struggle to increase revenue and profitability. Often, the challenge is not a lack of ambition or resources, but a lack of understanding of the people who drive the business every day. Employees see opportunities, challenges, and inefficiencies that leaders may not always be aware of. However, many choose to remain silent because they fear that speaking honestly could negatively impact their job security, career progression, or income.
As a result, valuable insights go unheard, trust weakens, and businesses miss opportunities to unlock their full potential.
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Atlas builds stronger connections, greater trust, and a deeper sense of belonging. When leaders and employees understand each other better, they can work together toward shared goals, creating healthier workplace cultures and driving sustainable business growth.
Introduction
The world’s leading cultural identity analytics platform
Equipping organisations to lead with confidence, strengthening cultural, social and commercial performance
Culture shapes people, markets, workforces, technology and societies. For more than twenty years, Cultural Infusion has been helping organisations understand that complexity. Today, its Atlas platform converts cultural knowledge into measurable intelligence that improves decision making, workforce capability, healthcare, policy, business performance and social resilience.
An Overview
The Atlas platform is the culmination of decades of work and thought leadership in the cultural space. Its creator, Cultural Infusion is a leader in promoting intercultural understanding worldwide, through award winning technology, experience and research, operating at the intersection of data, culture, and global business and communities.
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Where Atlas delivers value
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Spot gold is trading around $4,481.29 per troy ounce, down 0.81% on the session after failing to break above the $4,510–$4,515 resistance zone during Asian trading. Meanwhile, the front-month COMEX gold contract stands at $4,537.00, down $8.30 or 0.18%, after reaching an overnight high of $4,550.80 before retreating toward $4,528.70 at the New York open. On the CFD market, gold has traded within an intraday range of approximately $4,463–$4,500.
Wednesday delivered the decisive move, with gold surging more than 3% to $4,480, its highest level since early June. The rally was primarily driven by a sharp decline in long-term US Treasury yields. Thursday’s pullback has erased only part of that advance, suggesting that the broader bullish structure remains intact despite renewed pressure.
Gold Rally Loses Momentum as Treasury Yields Recover
Gold’s recent performance highlights the uncertainty surrounding current market positioning. The precious metal has gained 9.90% over the past month and 34.19% over the past year, while its year-to-date advance stands at roughly 0.25%.
The price action has been volatile. Gold reached a record high of $5,602.23 on January 29 before falling sharply through March and April. After stabilizing near $4,457 in late May, the metal declined toward $4,065–$4,100 in late July before staging a recovery of more than 10% from the yearly low.
At $4,481, gold remains about 20% below its January peak. The current 52-week range stretches from $3,311.46 to $5,595.46, placing the metal in the upper-middle portion of a wide trading range.
The main obstacle for further gains is the renewed rise in long-term Treasury yields. The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed back to 5.236%, more than four basis points above Wednesday’s 5.196% close and only around 9.4 basis points below Tuesday’s 19-year high of 5.33%. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield is holding near 4.696%.
The sharp reversal in bond yields has partially undone the key driver behind Wednesday’s gold rally. Lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold, while rising yields tend to have the opposite effect.
This region combines two important technical indicators: the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June decline. The convergence of these two indicators within a narrow price zone makes the resistance particularly significant.
The broader weekly resistance area extends from approximately $4,493 to $4,533, with $4,510–$4,515 positioned near its midpoint.
A weekly close above $4,533 would strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially expose gold to the next major resistance zone around $4,855–$4,894. Conversely, failure to clear $4,515 could send XAU/USD back into the six-week trading range that has dominated price action through the summer.
On the downside, the 50-day moving average at $4,386.29 represents the first major support level. Below it, $4,319 is particularly important as it corresponds to the 2026 yearly open and the 52-week moving average.
The $4,319 level previously acted as resistance but has since shifted into support, making this breakout one of the most constructive technical developments for gold since the March decline.
Additional support levels are located around $4,311, followed by the $4,284–$4,311 demand zone and $4,175. Stronger support is seen around $4,002–$4,017, while $3,887 represents a deeper defensive level before the yearly low region.
Momentum indicators remain broadly bullish. The daily RSI is at 65.17, approaching overbought territory but not yet reaching extreme levels. Daily MACD remains positive, while the broader technical signal remains Strong Buy across the daily, weekly and monthly timeframes. However, the hourly signal has shifted to Strong Sell, highlighting short-term exhaustion.
Wednesday’s Gold Rally Was Driven Primarily by Treasury Yields
The distinction between a yield-driven rally and a traditional safe-haven rally is important for assessing gold’s next move.
On Wednesday, the US Treasury announced that it would at least double the size of liquidity-support buyback operations involving longer-dated nominal coupon securities across the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors.
The maximum amount per operation was increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, with the new level scheduled to take effect from September 9 through November 4.
Following the announcement, the 30-year Treasury yield fell from 5.33% to 5.184%, while the 10-year yield declined from 4.68% to 4.637%. At the same time, the US Dollar fell to a three-month low, helping gold surge more than 3% to $4,480.
The relationship is straightforward. Gold does not generate interest income, meaning its opportunity cost rises when Treasury yields increase. When long-term yields fall while the US Dollar weakens, the relative attractiveness of holding gold improves.
However, the scale of the Treasury buyback program raises questions about how sustainable the yield decline can be. Doubling the buyback ceiling adds roughly $14 billion of potential capacity against approximately $32.2 trillion of outstanding marketable Treasury debt.
The Treasury is also not eliminating the underlying debt. Instead, it purchases older, less liquid securities while financing those purchases through new issuance. The overall amount of outstanding debt therefore remains largely unchanged.
As a result, Wednesday’s market reaction appears to have reflected the policy signal more than a fundamental change in Treasury supply dynamics.
Rising Treasury Yields Create a Headwind for Gold
The subsequent rebound in Treasury yields shows why gold has struggled to extend Wednesday’s rally.
The 30-year yield has returned to 5.236%, exceeding its level before the buyback announcement, while the 10-year yield has risen to 4.696%. In effect, much of the bond-market move that supported Wednesday’s gold rally has already been reversed.
The broader fiscal environment is also keeping pressure on long-term yields. US government debt has surpassed $40 trillion, while the July federal deficit reached $432.3 billion. Interest payments on the debt have also approached approximately $1.2 trillion this calendar year.
This creates a difficult environment for the Treasury, particularly as demand for long-duration government debt remains under pressure.
The rise in global bond yields adds another layer to the problem. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield recently reached a multi-decade high, while long-term yields in Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Switzerland and Canada have also moved higher.
For gold, rising nominal yields can be bearish because they increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion. However, if yields rise because of deteriorating fiscal conditions, inflation concerns or fears surrounding debt monetization, the same environment can support structural demand for gold.
At present, both forces are operating simultaneously.
Fed Policy Remains a Major Risk for Gold
Federal Reserve policy is another important factor limiting gold’s upside.
Minutes from the July 28–29 FOMC meeting indicated that several policymakers remained prepared to raise interest rates if inflation failed to make sufficient progress toward the 2% target. Three regional Fed presidents also dissented in favor of a rate hike at the meeting.
The federal funds target range currently stands at 3.50%–3.75%, while market pricing puts the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in September at around 69.9%.
The prospect of further monetary tightening creates a challenging environment for gold because higher interest rates and Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of owning a non-yielding asset.
However, weaker economic indicators provide an important counterbalance. July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, compared with expectations for an increase of roughly 83,000, while previous months were revised lower. Retail sales also declined 0.6% in July, significantly weaker than the expected 0.1% increase.
This combination of persistent inflation, slowing growth and softer labor-market conditions leaves the Federal Reserve facing a difficult policy trade-off.
The upcoming Jackson Hole event could therefore become an important catalyst for gold. A hawkish message could reinforce Treasury yields and push XAU/USD toward the $4,386 support level. A more cautious tone focused on labor-market weakness could instead help gold retest $4,533.
Geopolitical Tensions Fail to Trigger a Strong Gold Safe-Haven Rally
Another notable feature of the current market is gold’s inability to attract a significant safe-haven bid despite escalating tensions surrounding Iran.
Crude oil prices have responded more strongly to the geopolitical developments. September WTI futures have risen 2.38% to $86.40, while Brent crude has climbed above $94.
Yet gold has fallen 0.81% on the session.
The divergence suggests that investors are currently favoring the US Dollar rather than gold as the preferred safe-haven asset. Because gold is priced in US Dollars, a stronger dollar can place additional pressure on XAU/USD.
Geopolitical tensions could still support gold through a secondary channel. Higher oil prices can increase inflationary pressure, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates. If inflation remains elevated while economic growth deteriorates, real yields could eventually weaken, creating a more favorable environment for bullion.
This transmission mechanism is slower than a conventional safe-haven rally but could prove more sustainable if energy prices remain elevated.
Gold Remains Far Below Its January Record
Despite the recent rebound, gold’s broader performance shows that the market has not yet returned to a clear new bullish phase.
The metal is up more than 34% year over year and nearly 10% over the past month, but its year-to-date gain is only around 0.25%. This means most of the annual gain was generated during late 2025 and January 2026, while the subsequent months represented a significant round trip.
Gold’s January record of $5,602.23 was followed by a sharp correction. The metal eventually stabilized near $4,457 in May before falling toward the $4,065–$4,100 area in July.
The August recovery has nevertheless been significant. Gold has gained more than 10% from its yearly low and broken decisively above the six-week consolidation range that had constrained prices throughout the summer.
At current levels, gold has recovered roughly 42% of the decline from the July low to the January record. That represents a meaningful technical recovery, but it does not yet confirm the beginning of a new long-term uptrend.
The $4,312–$4,319 region remains the key pivot. Holding above this zone would support the view that the March downtrend has been invalidated and that gold is entering a recovery phase. A sustained move below it, however, would increase the risk that the August rally was merely a countertrend rebound within a broader correction.
For now, gold remains caught between supportive structural factors, including fiscal concerns and geopolitical risks, and significant headwinds from elevated Treasury yields and expectations for a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve. The $4,510–$4,533 resistance zone therefore remains the critical barrier for determining whether the latest gold recovery can develop into a more sustained bullish move.
The Federal Reserve’s July FOMC minutes provide a clearer picture of the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged—and they reveal a notable gap between the Committee’s reasoning and Chair Kevin Warsh’s subsequent press conference.
Taken together, the July policy statement, press conference, and minutes suggest that the Federal Reserve may be experiencing a shift in how it communicates monetary policy. While the Committee’s decision remained grounded in economic data and risk management, Warsh’s comments offered a different interpretation of the decision.
For investors, the key lesson is straightforward: when the Chair’s comments and the FOMC minutes appear to diverge, the minutes may provide the more reliable guide to the Committee’s thinking.
What the FOMC Minutes Reveal About the July Rate Decision
At the July meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. At the time, inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target, while the labor market was broadly balanced.
According to the FOMC minutes, most policymakers expected inflation to moderate later in the year as the effects of energy-related supply disruptions and tariffs faded. Softer inflation data in June offered some support for this view, although officials did not consider the evidence conclusive.
With unemployment close to its longer-run level, policymakers also saw little immediate pressure from the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate. Since economic conditions had changed relatively little since the June meeting, officials preferred to wait for additional data ahead of the September meeting.
The minutes also highlighted upside inflation risks. Several policymakers indicated that further rate increases could be appropriate if inflation failed to decline, while three voting members dissented in favor of a July hike.
In other words, the decision to hold rates was largely a data-dependent pause designed to provide more time to assess the inflation outlook.
Warsh’s Press Conference Offered a Different Message
The biggest contrast emerged during Kevin Warsh’s press conference.
When asked whether June’s softer inflation data influenced the decision, Warsh appeared to downplay their importance. However, the minutes indicate that the data did matter: most participants expected inflation to decline, and the June figures provided the first evidence supporting that expectation.
Warsh also rejected the characterization of the July decision as a “pause,” describing it instead as a broader review of economic conditions.
Yet the minutes make the rationale much clearer. Policymakers wanted additional information before September because incoming data could provide greater clarity on inflation.
From an investor’s perspective, that is effectively a pause: rates were left unchanged while policymakers waited for more evidence.
Did Financial Markets Influence the Fed’s Decision?
Warsh repeatedly highlighted tighter financial conditions and higher market interest rates during the press conference.
However, the FOMC minutes do not identify higher market rates as a primary reason for holding the policy rate steady. Instead, several participants noted that financial conditions had tightened, partly because markets expected the Fed to adopt a more restrictive policy stance.
This distinction is important.
Financial markets were not replacing Fed policy. Rather, markets were anticipating that the Fed might tighten policy in the future.
The Fed’s own market desk reportedly indicated that financial markets had fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate increase by the September meeting. Therefore, market pricing should be viewed as an expectation of future Fed action rather than a substitute for that action.
Warsh’s comments appeared to contribute to a reduction in expectations for a September rate hike, illustrating how differences in Fed communication can directly affect financial markets.
Warsh’s Reaction Function vs. the Committee’s View
Warsh also described his own reaction function, suggesting that rising underlying inflation would make a central bank more inclined to tighten policy, while falling inflation would increase the case for easing.
That framework is straightforward, but it does not fully capture the Committee’s current challenge.
The key question for policymakers is not simply whether inflation is rising or falling. The bigger issue is whether inflation is moving sustainably toward the Fed’s 2% target.
The FOMC minutes indicate that many policymakers believed additional tightening could become necessary if inflation failed to decline.
That distinction matters because the Chair has only one vote. Monetary policy requires the support of the broader Committee.
For investors preparing for the September FOMC meeting, the Committee’s language may therefore be more informative than the Chair’s individual interpretation.
What Investors Should Take Away
The July FOMC minutes highlight an important change in Federal Reserve communication.
The Fed may be moving away from traditional forward guidance, but reducing forward guidance should not mean reducing transparency or accountability.
The minutes provide a more detailed explanation of why policymakers held rates: inflation remained elevated, but officials expected it to moderate and wanted more economic data before making another move.
Warsh’s press conference, by contrast, offered a less precise description of the Committee’s reasoning and placed greater emphasis on financial markets and his personal policy framework.
For investors, the lesson is clear: read the FOMC minutes carefully and place greater weight on the Committee’s consensus than on the Chair’s individual comments.
The July meeting did not necessarily signal a fundamental change in how the Fed makes monetary policy. Instead, it may signal a significant change in how the institution communicates that policy.
As markets look toward the September FOMC meeting, inflation data, labor-market conditions, and the broader Committee consensus will likely matter more than any single comment from the Chair.
Solana (SOL) extended its strong weekly rally on Friday, gaining more than 19% so far this week and trading near the key 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $89. A sustained breakout above this resistance could reinforce the bullish outlook and pave the way for further upside.
The latest gains have been supported by improving liquidity conditions following the US Treasury’s decision to expand its debt buyback operations. At the same time, institutional demand for Solana has strengthened, with US-listed spot SOL ETFs attracting $14.58 million in net inflows on Thursday, their strongest single-day inflow since late July.
Improving Liquidity Conditions Support Solana
The US Treasury announced on Wednesday that it would double the size of certain debt buyback operations designed to improve liquidity in the longer-dated Treasury market.
According to Reuters, the Treasury plans to increase liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated nominal coupon securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.
The larger buyback program helped ease concerns over market liquidity and encouraged greater risk appetite across financial markets. It also contributed to a short squeeze in cryptocurrencies, with SOL jumping more than 10% on Wednesday before extending its advance to a Friday high of $90.20.
Institutional Demand for SOL Strengthens
Institutional interest in Solana has also picked up this week. Data from SoSoValue showed that US-listed spot SOL ETFs attracted $14.58 million in net inflows on Thursday, marking the strongest single-day inflow since the end of July.
Thursday also marked the third consecutive session of positive ETF flows this week. If institutional inflows continue to increase, they could provide an additional catalyst for SOL and support further price gains.
Solana Price Forecast: 200-Day EMA Remains Key Resistance
Solana was trading around $89.14 on Friday, maintaining a bullish short-term structure as the price remained comfortably above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $76.91 and $78.63, respectively.
However, SOL is currently testing the 200-day EMA at $89.28, which represents an important resistance level. The indicator could limit the upside during the initial breakout attempt.
Momentum indicators remain bullish but increasingly stretched. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 79, placing it in overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly positive. Together, these signals point to strong upward momentum, although the recent rally may leave SOL vulnerable to short-term consolidation or profit-taking.
On the downside, the first important support zone is around $77.07, supported by the 100-day EMA at $78.63 and the 50-day EMA at $76.91. A deeper correction could bring the broken ascending trendline near $74.38 into focus as the next major demand area.
On the upside, a sustained daily close above the 200-day EMA at $89.28 could strengthen the bullish setup and expose the next resistance near $96.19. This level may attract selling pressure following SOL’s sharp recent advance.
Gold and silver extended their recent gains on Friday as a weaker US Dollar (USD), elevated market volatility, and renewed safe-haven demand supported precious metals. Gold (XAU/USD) climbed to around $4,544 during the Asian session, reaching its highest level since early June, while Silver (XAG/USD) approached $69 per troy ounce after gaining nearly 6% this week.
Gold Holds Above $4,500 as USD Weakness Supports Buyers
Gold continued its upward momentum after breaking above the technically important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The precious metal reached approximately $4,544, marking its strongest level since early June and reinforcing the broader bullish outlook.
The primary driver behind the latest Gold rally has been continued weakness in the USD, which remains close to a three-month low. Recent US inflation data showed signs of easing price pressures, leading investors to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Because Gold does not generate interest income, expectations for higher US interest rates typically reduce its appeal. Conversely, fading expectations for tighter monetary policy can support demand for the precious metal by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
However, rising crude oil prices could complicate the outlook. Higher energy prices may reignite inflation concerns and encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer. At the same time, escalating tensions between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, together with renewed activity by Iran-backed Houthi forces targeting oil tankers, have increased concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies.
Oil prices subsequently advanced to a three-week high, helping keep US Treasury yields elevated and potentially limiting the downside in the USD.
Fed Rate Hike Expectations Could Cap Gold’s Upside
The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes offered some support for the US Dollar. Policymakers indicated that interest rates could need to rise in the near term unless inflation continues to move lower.
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in approximately a 68% probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year. If these expectations strengthen, higher Treasury yields and a firmer USD could create headwinds for Gold.
Geopolitical risks are also influencing currency markets. US President Donald Trump said Washington would pursue a major economic campaign against Iran and warned of penalties for countries helping Tehran circumvent sanctions or maintain commercial ties with Iran. Vice President JD Vance likewise highlighted economic pressure as a key tool for influencing Tehran.
Such developments could increase demand for the USD as a traditional safe-haven currency, potentially limiting further gains in Gold.
Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Targets $4,687
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains in a bullish structure after establishing itself above the 200-day SMA. Buyers are now looking for a sustained move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline, located around $4,529.
The MACD remains in positive territory, supporting the prevailing bullish momentum. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 67.70, approaching overbought territory and suggesting that the recent advance could be becoming stretched.
A sustained breakout above $4,529 could expose the next resistance near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at approximately $4,687. A further extension could bring the cycle high around $4,889 into focus.
On the downside, initial support is located near $4,529, followed by the 200-day SMA around $4,514 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $4,417. Additional support levels can be found around $4,306, $4,168, and the structural low near $3,946.
Silver Approaches $69 as Volatility Drives Safe-Haven Demand
Silver (XAG/USD) also extended its advance for a third consecutive session, trading around $68.70 per troy ounce during Friday’s Asian session. The metal has gained nearly 6% over the week as heightened volatility across currency and bond markets encouraged investors to increase exposure to precious metals.
The initial boost came after the US Treasury Department announced plans to at least double its long-term debt buyback operations. The announcement initially pushed Treasury yields and the USD lower, creating a supportive environment for non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Although US Treasury yields later recovered much of their decline, continued weakness in the dollar allowed Silver to maintain its bullish momentum.
Market uncertainty surrounding the Treasury’s debt-management strategy has also contributed to demand for precious metals. While the initial fall in longer-term yields has largely reversed, persistent USD weakness indicates that investors remain cautious about the implications of the buyback program and the broader US fiscal outlook.
Rising Oil Prices Create Risks for Silver
Despite the bullish near-term outlook, Silver could face resistance if higher energy prices revive inflation concerns.
Crude oil prices have risen amid escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran over the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Stalled negotiations and stronger US economic pressure on Iran have increased concerns about potential disruptions to Iranian oil exports and global energy supplies.
The US is reportedly preparing additional economic measures targeting Iran’s banking sector, shipping networks, cash transfers, and smuggling operations. The objective is to intensify pressure on Tehran and encourage negotiations over its nuclear program and regional activities.
Higher oil prices could increase inflation expectations and reduce the likelihood of rapid monetary easing. If central banks respond by maintaining or raising interest rates, higher yields could weigh on non-yielding assets such as Gold and Silver.
Overall, both Gold and Silver retain a constructive near-term outlook as USD weakness, elevated financial-market volatility, and safe-haven demand continue to support precious metals.
Gold’s ability to remain above its 200-day SMA keeps the broader bullish structure intact, while a sustained break above $4,529 could pave the way toward $4,687 and potentially $4,889.
Silver is approaching the psychologically important $69 level after a strong weekly rally. However, rising oil prices, renewed inflation risks, and expectations for higher interest rates could limit further upside and increase volatility.
For both precious metals, the next major directional catalyst is likely to come from the interaction between USD performance, Federal Reserve rate expectations, Treasury yields, and developments surrounding US-Iran tensions.
WTI Price Forecast: Oil Climbs Above $84.50 as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Intensify
WTI crude oil prices rebound to around $85.50 per barrel during Thursday’s Asian session, extending their recovery as escalating US-Iran tensions and growing risks around the Strait of Hormuz fuel concerns over potential supply disruptions.
Geopolitical pressure intensified after the United Arab Emirates suspended financial and economic transactions with Iran following alleged missile attacks. Despite the heightened risks, Gulf oil producers continue to maintain relatively strong export flows by relying on alternative shipping routes and less visible transport channels.
Market risks remain elevated as stalled US-Iran negotiations and the threat of further attacks raise concerns over energy supplies. TD Securities cautioned that worsening geopolitical tensions could keep a risk premium embedded in crude oil and refined products.
US inventory data offered a mixed signal for oil markets. The latest EIA report showed domestic crude stockpiles increasing by 4.4 million barrels, while distillate inventories declined by 1.5 million barrels to their lowest level in about a month. The contrasting supply trends, combined with rising geopolitical risks, could keep WTI volatile in the near term.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Hits Two-Month High as US Expands Treasury Buybacks
Silver (XAG/USD) climbs to a fresh two-month high of $67.33 during Thursday’s Asian session, supported by a sharp decline in longer-term US Treasury yields after the US Treasury announced plans to double its bond buyback operations.
The expansion of Treasury buybacks has pushed long-dated yields lower and added pressure on the US Dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield remains near 4.64% after falling more than 1.5% on Wednesday, while the 30-year yield has dropped close to 5.18%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering near a seven-week low around 98.77.
Falling bond yields tend to increase the appeal of non-yielding precious metals such as silver. However, the latest FOMC minutes showed that several policymakers favored the possibility of further interest-rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, creating a potential headwind for silver.
XAG/USD is trading around $67.10, well above its 20-period EMA at $63.20, keeping the short-term technical outlook bullish. The RSI stands at 61.48, indicating positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory.
Immediate support is located around $67.10, followed by stronger dynamic support near $63.20. On the upside, a sustained move higher could bring $70.00 into focus, with the June 16 high around $71.19 representing the next major resistance level.
Australian Dollar Slips After Disappointing Labor Report
AUD/USD comes under renewed selling pressure as weaker-than-expected Australian employment data weighs on the Australian Dollar.
Australia’s unemployment rate climbed to 4.5% in July, exceeding the 4.4% market forecast.
Fed minutes indicated that policymakers could support near-term rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, while the benchmark rate was kept at 3.5%–3.75%.
AUD/USD retreats after gaining more than 0.5% in the previous session, trading near 0.7120 during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair is pressured by a weaker Australian Dollar following disappointing domestic employment figures.
Australia’s unemployment rate increased to 4.5% in July, above economists’ expectations of 4.4%. Employment also deteriorated sharply, with the economy losing 15.8K jobs compared with an 80.2K increase in June and falling well short of the forecast for a 15.0K rise.
AUD Faces Additional Headwinds From RBA and China Concerns
Rabobank strategists noted that expectations for additional Reserve Bank of Australia tightening remain limited, with markets pricing in only around 12 basis points of rate hikes over the next three months. They also pointed to weaker Chinese demand for Australian commodities and softer domestic economic conditions as growing risks for the Aussie.
Still, AUD/USD could find some support from a weaker US Dollar, which has been pressured by recent economic developments and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting showed that several policymakers were open to raising interest rates in the near term if inflation failed to moderate, while the benchmark rate remained unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%.
Although inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, recent monthly readings suggest that price pressures are easing. This has reduced expectations for an immediate rate increase. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 32.7% probability of a rate hike at the next meeting, down from 47% one month earlier.
AUD/USD is trading near 0.7110 on the daily chart, remaining above both the nine-period and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This positioning keeps the pair’s near-term outlook moderately bullish, particularly as prices continue to move beyond the recent consolidation range.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63.2, indicating positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory. This suggests that buyers still have room to push prices higher, although broader Federal Reserve sentiment remains relatively subdued compared with previous peaks.
The first key resistance level is the psychological 0.7200 mark. On the downside, initial support is located around the nine-period EMA at 0.7087. A break below this level could expose the next support zone near the 50-period EMA at 0.7034, where dip-buyers may attempt to regain control.
Canadian Dollar Strengthens as Oil Prices Rise and US Dollar Weakens
USD/CAD extends its decline as stronger crude oil prices support the commodity-sensitive Canadian Dollar.
Oil prices climb amid heightened Middle East tensions and stalled US-Iran negotiations, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions.
Fed minutes indicated that policymakers could favor near-term rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, while keeping the benchmark rate at 3.5%–3.75%.
USD/CAD falls for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.3800 during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair remains under pressure as the Canadian Dollar gains momentum from rising crude oil prices.
Oil prices have advanced sharply as tensions in the Middle East intensify and negotiations between the United States and Iran remain deadlocked. The situation has extended into the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Although US President Donald Trump said oil shipments continue to pass through the waterway, he also indicated that further negotiations with Tehran remain possible.
Oil Rally Supports the Canadian Dollar
TD Securities highlighted the ongoing geopolitical risks as an important driver of crude prices, warning that the Iran conflict could escalate further. With the threat of supply disruptions still present, the bank expects Brent crude’s geopolitical risk premium to remain elevated as traders price in the possibility of additional instability across the region.
USD/CAD is also pressured by a softer US Dollar amid shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy and recent economic data. Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting showed that officials were prepared to consider raising interest rates in the near term if inflation failed to ease, while the benchmark rate remained unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%.
Although inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, recent monthly figures indicate that price pressures are moderating. The signs of cooling inflation have reduced expectations for an immediate rate hike. Markets now see a 32.7% probability of a Fed rate increase at the next meeting, down from 47% one month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Stocks came under pressure on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 falling roughly 0.7% and the NASDAQ sliding more than 1.5%. Semiconductor shares led the decline as credit spreads for several chipmakers widened again, with some even surpassing the highs recorded on July 29.
Equity markets have yet to fully reflect the deterioration seen in semiconductor CDS. This raises the question of whether Tuesday’s decline could mark the beginning of another sharp sell-off in the sector, similar to the plunge witnessed in July.
Nvidia’s credit spreads moved above July levels, although the stock remains significantly higher than it was less than a month ago. Broadcom’s share-price action, meanwhile, appears to be tracking developments in the credit market more closely than Nvidia.
Options positioning could add another layer of pressure. The semiconductor ETF SMH has accumulated substantial positive delta exposure, particularly around the $600 and $550 levels. As time value erodes and call premiums decline, options at $600 and above could lose value rapidly. A break below $550 could accelerate that decay and potentially trigger additional stock selling as hedging positions are unwound.
The largest delta exposure, based on the analysis, is set to expire this Friday, potentially increasing the importance of near-term price movements.
Implied correlations for SMH also rose on Tuesday, moving ahead of the broader market. After remaining subdued for weeks, correlations could continue to increase as earnings season winds down and stock-level dispersion declines.
These factors are largely mechanical and are separate from broader issues such as higher interest rates or geopolitical developments. However, if semiconductor CDS spreads continue to widen while rates rise, the combination of deteriorating credit conditions, options-related flows and higher correlations could make the remainder of the summer more challenging for equities.
Bitcoin whales are quietly returning to the market, accumulating more than $2.9 billion worth of BTC over the past 60 days, while smaller investors appear to be reducing their exposure.
Wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC added around 46,420 Bitcoin during the period, marking the strongest whale accumulation since March.
The renewed buying comes as Bitcoin continues to trade well below its all-time high, prompting speculation that large holders may be positioning for a potential recovery.
Bitcoin Whales Buy as Retail Investors Reduce Exposure
The latest data highlights a clear divergence between the behavior of large and small Bitcoin holders.
Wallets with more than 10,000 BTC accumulated approximately 46,420 BTC, while smaller retail investors sold nearly 9,700 BTC over the same 60-day period.
This creates a notable gap in market positioning.
Retail investors appear to be cutting exposure amid uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin, whereas large holders are taking advantage of the weaker market to increase their positions.
Such a divergence could prove significant when assessing Bitcoin’s next major price move.
Why Bitcoin Whale Accumulation Matters
The recent accumulation is particularly notable because it follows a period of significant selling pressure from large Bitcoin holders.
In February, wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC accumulated roughly 53,000 Bitcoin in one week after months of net selling. Despite that increase, large holders had still reduced their holdings by more than 170,000 BTC since mid-December.
The latest data suggests whale sentiment may once again be shifting toward accumulation.
In July, whales purchased more than 270,000 BTC worth approximately $16.7 billion in just two weeks, even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.06 billion in outflows during June.
This behavior explains why whale activity remains a closely watched indicator among Bitcoin investors.
When large holders aggressively accumulate BTC during periods of weak market sentiment, it may indicate that some investors see lower prices as an opportunity to build positions rather than a reason to exit the market.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Whale accumulation does not necessarily mean Bitcoin is about to begin a new rally. Large holders may accumulate BTC for various reasons, including long-term investment strategies, portfolio rebalancing or expectations of further price declines.
Nevertheless, sustained buying by wallets controlling substantial amounts of Bitcoin can influence broader market dynamics. If whales move BTC away from exchanges or continue increasing their holdings, the amount of Bitcoin immediately available for sale could decrease.
If demand remains firm while available supply tightens, even a moderate increase in buying pressure could have a greater impact on Bitcoin price.
However, whale activity should not be considered in isolation. Bitcoin’s outlook also depends on spot ETF flows, institutional demand, overall risk appetite, interest-rate expectations, market liquidity and broader cryptocurrency sentiment.
A sustained increase in whale holdings is therefore a potentially bullish signal, but it may not be enough to offset selling pressure from other market participants.
If whale accumulation continues alongside stronger institutional and retail demand, the combination could become an important signal for Bitcoin’s next major move, potentially strengthening the case for an upside breakout.
Bitcoin remains under pressure below the 50-day EMA near $64,368 on Wednesday, signaling continued bearish momentum.
The Fear and Greed Index climbs to 41, indicating a shift toward neutral sentiment after the recent risk-off mood.
Venice and Sky lead the gains among major altcoins over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $64,000 on Wednesday but remains under pressure as bulls look for signs of a sustained recovery. Meanwhile, improving crypto market sentiment and strong performances from Venice Token (VVV) and Sky (SKY) are drawing attention across the altcoin market.
CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index rises to 41, moving into neutral territory and suggesting that investor sentiment is gradually recovering from the recent risk-off mood.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Faces Resistance Near $64,400
Bitcoin trades near $64,384, hovering around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at approximately $64,368. The price action points to a mildly bearish near-term bias, although BTC continues to hold above the rising support trendline from $61,307 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $63,712.
Momentum indicators offer a more balanced picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52, slightly above the neutral 50 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and signal line remain broadly flat. This suggests that sellers have yet to gain decisive control.
On the upside, the first major hurdle is the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $69,200. Beyond this level, the 200-day EMA around $72,801 represents a key resistance zone. A sustained break above it could strengthen the bullish outlook.
On the downside, the 50-day EMA near $64,369 provides immediate support, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $63,712. A clear break below this area could expose Bitcoin to further losses toward the $57,800 region and undermine the broader recovery structure.
Altcoin Price Forecast: Can VVV and SKY Extend Their Gains?
Venice Token (VVV) remains above $13.00 after advancing around 20% earlier this week. The token maintains a bullish short-term setup while trading above the 50-day EMA at $12.40 and the 200-day EMA at $10.41.
VVV faces immediate resistance around $14.25, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $21.42 to $9.81. A breakout above this level could open the path toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $18.12.
The RSI around 63 reflects solid bullish momentum without signaling overbought conditions, while the positive MACD slope above its signal line further supports the recovery.
On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $12.40 acts as the first support, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $11.80 and the 200-day EMA at $10.41.
Sky (SKY) trades above $0.0500 after gaining roughly 10% over the past three days. However, the token remains below its 50-day EMA at $0.0567 and 200-day EMA at $0.0616, keeping the broader technical outlook bearish.
Short-term momentum is improving, with the RSI rising to around 54 and moving above its midpoint. The MACD has also crossed above its signal line, indicating that selling pressure may be starting to ease.
SKY faces initial resistance at the 50-day EMA near $0.0567, while the descending resistance trendline around $0.0583 adds another hurdle. A stronger recovery would need to overcome the 200-day EMA at $0.0616.
If SKY turns lower from the 50-day EMA, the August 14 low at $0.05059 could provide the first downside target, followed by the June 27 low at $0.04859.
Gold Price Slips Below $4,450 as FOMC Minutes Loom
Gold recovers modestly from a fresh weekly low as the US Dollar comes under renewed selling pressure. However, oil-driven inflation risks keep US Treasury yields elevated, which could limit further USD losses. Traders now await the FOMC Minutes for fresh interest-rate signals before taking directional positions on gold.
Gold (XAU/USD) gives up its modest intraday gains and remains near the lower end of its daily range, trading below $4,450 ahead of the European session on Wednesday. Although the US Dollar (USD) has come under renewed selling pressure, Gold buyers remain cautious as markets await clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s future policy path before taking fresh positions.
Attention is now focused on the upcoming FOMC Minutes, particularly as rising energy prices fuel renewed inflation concerns. Crude oil prices have climbed to a nearly three-week high amid ongoing tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent geopolitical risks are keeping the oil market supported, while higher energy prices could reinforce expectations for tighter US monetary policy.
The combination of elevated oil prices and rising US Treasury yields continues to provide support for the US Dollar and may limit Gold’s upside potential. The 30-year US Treasury yield has also climbed to its highest level since June 2007, adding pressure to the non-yielding precious metal. Meanwhile, markets continue to price in a relatively high probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end.
ING analysts note that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded from the 99.40 area, suggesting that the Greenback may not be ready for a sustained decline. The bank highlights higher energy prices and rising long-term Treasury yields as key factors supporting the USD and potentially reviving expectations for a September Fed rate hike.
Persistent geopolitical uncertainty may also limit aggressive bearish positioning in the US Dollar, keeping the outlook for Gold cautious. Traders are therefore likely to await the FOMC Minutes for additional clues on interest rates and the Fed’s policy outlook.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline and is trading well beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the short-term bias tilted to the downside despite the recent consolidation.
The MACD remains above the zero line but has moved closer to its signal line, while the RSI stands at 59.24 in positive territory. This indicates that bullish momentum remains intact but could weaken if Gold fails to reclaim key resistance levels.
On the upside, the $4,406 area represents the first resistance, followed by the 200-day SMA near $4,509 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,519.36. On the downside, initial support is seen around $4,292, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, followed by $4,152 at the 23.6% level and the broader structural support near $3,925.
WTI Price Forecast: Oil Holds Near Three-Week High Below $85 as Bulls Target 100-SMA Breakout
WTI extends its bullish momentum for a fourth consecutive session, reaching a near three-week high.
Ongoing US-Iran tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to support oil prices.
A decisive break above the 100-day SMA could strengthen the outlook for further gains.
WTI, the US crude oil benchmark, reaches a near three-week high during Wednesday’s Asian trading session but struggles to sustain gains above the $85.00 level. Despite the hesitation, oil prices remain on a bullish track for a fourth consecutive session, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding the US-Iran standoff.
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz continues to underpin crude prices. US President Donald Trump indicated that the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, while Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the strategic waterway would stay closed until Washington meets the conditions outlined in a June memorandum of understanding. The ongoing uncertainty keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices and supports the near-term bullish outlook for WTI.
From a technical perspective, WTI retains a constructive short-term bias while holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August decline at $82.38. Momentum indicators also lean slightly bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.90 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 0.47.
However, upside potential remains limited unless WTI breaks above the key 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.09. A sustained move above this resistance could open the door toward the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $87.06, followed by the 61.8% level at $91.73, which would provide a stronger bullish signal.
On the downside, $82.38 offers initial support, while deeper structural support is located around $76.60 and $67.25. A larger pullback toward these levels could attract renewed buying interest.
Gold rebounds as softer USD and fading Fed hike bets lift XAU/USD
Gold recovers from a fresh weekly low as renewed US Dollar weakness provides support.
Softer US economic data and easing inflation reduce expectations for a September Fed rate hike.
XAU/USD remains capped by the 100-day SMA, with the $4,386–$4,455 zone acting as key resistance.
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds on Friday after slipping to a fresh weekly low of $4,311 earlier in the session. The precious metal trades near $4,381 at the time of writing, supported by a weaker US Dollar and declining expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike. However, Gold remains below Thursday’s two-month peak of $4,449.
Fresh US economic data reinforced concerns that economic momentum is slowing. Retail Sales dropped 0.6% month-over-month in July, significantly below expectations for a 0.1% rise and reversing June’s 0.2% increase.
The disappointing spending data comes after this week’s CPI and PPI reports pointed to gradually easing inflationary pressures. However, preliminary University of Michigan figures showed that one-year inflation expectations rose slightly to 4.3% in August from 4.2%, while the five-year expectation remained unchanged at 3.3%.
The weaker economic data has pushed short-term Treasury yields lower and pressured the US Dollar as markets scale back expectations for a September Fed rate hike. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 99.50, down approximately 0.45% on the day.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now assigning roughly a 71% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged next month.
This environment remains broadly supportive for non-yielding Gold in the near term, although the inflation outlook remains uncertain. Inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, while energy-related price pressures have yet to fully ease amid continued uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
TD Securities noted that CTA net-long positioning in Gold is becoming increasingly established alongside renewed discretionary buying. The bank expects the precious metal to remain well supported at elevated levels if the Fed stays on hold amid weaker economic data, even with higher energy prices.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD faces resistance at the 100-day SMA
XAU/USD remains close to recent highs but has yet to achieve a convincing break above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,386. Gold continues to trade comfortably above the 20-day SMA, which coincides with the Bollinger middle band around $4,173.
The daily RSI is near 62, while the MACD remains in positive territory, indicating that bullish momentum is still intact and could support another attempt to break higher.
On the upside, the $4,386–$4,455 area represents a significant resistance zone, defined by the 100-day SMA and the upper Bollinger Band. A sustained move above this region could reinforce the bullish outlook and open the door to further gains.
On the downside, initial support lies around $4,173 at the Bollinger middle band, followed by the psychological $4,000 level. A deeper correction could expose the lower Bollinger Band near $3,891.
Forex Today
The US Dollar starts Tuesday under pressure, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering near two-month lows and remaining below the 100.00 threshold. A string of weaker-than-expected US data covering employment, inflation and retail sales has reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike next month.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are supporting commodities. A senior Iranian official said Tehran is adopting a “fully offensive” posture and warned that tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could escalate if diplomatic efforts fail. The comments pushed Crude Oil more than 2% higher and provided additional support for Gold.
US Dollar performance today
The US Dollar is broadly weaker against most major currencies, with the largest declines seen against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Swiss Franc. The Greenback is strongest against the Japanese Yen, while its performance against the Canadian Dollar remains broadly unchanged.
EUR/USD holds near 1.1580 after pulling back from a two-month high around 1.1614, with Dollar weakness continuing to underpin the pair.
GBP/USD remains firm around the mid-1.3500s, close to three-month highs as traders await Tuesday’s UK labor market data.
USD/JPY trades around 159.00 after markets largely looked past weaker-than-expected Japanese second-quarter GDP data.
AUD/USD remains near the lower 0.7100s and leads the major currencies despite softer Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures released over the weekend.
Gold extends its recovery above $4,400 as a weaker US Dollar and heightened Middle East tensions boost demand for the precious metal.
WTI Crude Oil climbs toward $84.00 per barrel as renewed Iranian threats increase the geopolitical risk premium in energy markets.
Key economic events ahead
Tuesday’s Asian session begins with Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence report. Attention then shifts to the UK labor market report, with the Bank of England particularly focused on Average Earnings and the ILO Unemployment Rate.
Later, Germany and the Eurozone will release ZEW economic sentiment data, while European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane is scheduled to speak.
The US session features Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production and Pending Home Sales, providing further clues about the health of the US economy. New Zealand’s second-quarter Producer Price Index will round out the day’s major releases.
AUD Advances as Fading Fed Hike Bets Weigh on US Dollar
AUD/USD advances for a third straight session as weaker Fed rate-hike expectations continue to weigh on the US Dollar.
Rising US-Iran tensions, following Trump’s stance on the expiring agreement and the naval blockade, add to broader geopolitical uncertainty.
Traders turn their attention to Australia’s August consumer confidence and Q2 Wage Price Index data for fresh clues on the RBA’s policy path.
AUD/USD extends its upward momentum for a third consecutive day, trading near 0.7110 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair remains supported as the US Dollar struggles amid diminishing expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes.
The unexpected drop in US Nonfarm Payrolls in July, together with relatively soft consumer inflation data released last week, has reduced expectations for a rate increase at the Fed’s next meeting. CME FedWatch Tool data now shows a 35% probability of a hike, down from 47% one month ago.
Geopolitical developments between the US and Iran are also influencing market sentiment. On Monday, US President Donald Trump said he was not interested in extending the expiring agreement with Iran, pointing to the naval blockade of Iranian ports as a sign of US leverage. Trump also reiterated his proposal to place the strategically important waterway under full US control.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei, meanwhile, said a deal remains out of reach because of security concerns and what he described as the “obstructionist behavior of destructive elements.” He called on Washington to remove the blockade before further negotiations could take place.
In Australia, attention is shifting toward upcoming economic indicators that could offer fresh insight into the domestic policy outlook. The August Westpac Consumer Confidence Index is due first, followed by the Q2 Wage Price Index. Australian wages are expected to increase 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, matching the pace recorded in the previous quarter.
Australia wage data unlikely to alter RBA expectations
Brown Brothers Harriman strategists expect the upcoming Australian labor-market figures to have a limited impact on expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia policy. BBH expects Q2 wage growth to remain at 0.8% q/q for a third consecutive quarter, while annual growth is forecast to ease to 3.2% from 3.3% in Q1.
This combination is unlikely to significantly change the current market view that the RBA will keep interest rates unchanged. As a result, the upcoming data present only limited potential for a meaningful repricing of RBA rate expectations.
RBA futures point to limited tightening
RBA cash-rate futures currently imply around a 60% probability of one final 25-basis-point rate increase by year-end, which would take the cash rate to 4.60%. However, BBH believes the risks are tilted toward the RBA maintaining its restrictive stance for longer rather than delivering another near-term hike.
With monetary policy already considered somewhat restrictive, markets may be pricing in a greater chance of additional tightening than is ultimately likely.
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD maintains a bullish bias above key EMAs
AUD/USD is trading around 0.7110 and retains a constructive technical outlook as the pair remains above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages. The shorter-term EMA is positioned above the longer-term measure, reinforcing the pair’s positive near-term trend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 65.84, approaching overbought territory. This indicates strong bullish momentum but also suggests that the recent advance may be becoming stretched.
Initial support is located around the nine-period EMA at 0.7074, followed by the 50-period EMA near 0.7028. Holding above these levels would keep the broader near-term bias tilted to the upside. However, with RSI elevated, further gains from current levels could increasingly give way to consolidation rather than a sustained straight-line rally.
EUR/USD pauses as oil-fueled inflation risks lend support to the US Dollar.
EUR/USD holds steady near 1.1580 after retreating slightly from a two-month high.
Higher oil prices revive inflation concerns and could strengthen expectations for another Fed rate hike, supporting the US Dollar.
Growing expectations of a final 25-basis-point ECB rate increase in September continue to underpin the Euro.
EUR/USD remains largely unchanged around the 1.1575–1.1580 area during Tuesday’s Asian session, stabilizing after Monday’s modest decline from a two-month peak. However, a slight recovery in the US Dollar suggests caution before assuming the pair will resume its recent advance from the 1.1350 region, the July monthly low.
Last week’s softer US inflation figures and weaker consumer spending data reduced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase, pushing the US Dollar Index to its lowest level since June 16 on Monday. However, the recent rise in crude oil prices has brought inflation concerns back into focus and could encourage the Fed to maintain a more hawkish policy stance. Persistent geopolitical risks are also supporting safe-haven demand for the Greenback, potentially limiting EUR/USD gains.
Tensions surrounding the Middle East remain a key market driver. US President Donald Trump said Washington does not intend to extend its Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, which expired on Monday. Trump also reiterated his proposal to place the strategically important Strait of Hormuz under US control and issued further warnings regarding Oman. The ongoing US-Iran standoff has pushed crude oil prices to a two-week high, increasing inflation risks and reinforcing expectations for at least one additional Fed rate hike before year-end.
Markets will therefore focus closely on Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes for fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction. The minutes could influence near-term USD movements and provide the next major catalyst for EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, expectations that the European Central Bank could deliver one final 25-basis-point rate increase at its September meeting continue to offer support to the Euro. This outlook could help limit the downside risk for EUR/USD in the near term.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD faces key resistance near 1.1600
EUR/USD is trading just below the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June decline, making this level an important near-term resistance zone. A sustained break above this barrier could strengthen the bullish outlook and open the way toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average near 1.1630, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 1.1647.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1522. A break below this level could expose the 23.6% retracement at 1.1445, while the broader structural support remains around the 1.1320 cycle low.
The DJIA falls nearly 260 points, slipping below the 53,500 mark and touching the mid-53,400 region.
The 30-year US Treasury yield climbs above 5.31%, reaching its highest level in nearly two decades.
Crude Oil jumps around 3% as the 60-day US-Iran negotiation framework expires.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost nearly 260 points on Monday, slipping below 53,500 and extending its decline for a second straight session. The index reached its intraday high at the opening bell before weakening throughout the day, with selling pressure intensifying late in the session as long-term US Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels since 2007.
US-Iran standoff fuels Oil rally
Market sentiment deteriorated after the expiration of the 60-day negotiating framework aimed at resolving tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, with no replacement agreement announced. Iranian officials warned that Tehran could adopt a more aggressive stance if diplomatic efforts fail, while the Revolutionary Guard reiterated that maritime traffic remains subject to Iranian approval until its conditions are met.
The uncertainty boosted energy markets, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rising above $83.00 per barrel and Brent crude advancing beyond $88.00, each gaining roughly 3% on the day.
Refiners benefit while the Dow misses out
The surge in energy prices has continued to support US refining companies. Shares of major refiners such as Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 remain near record highs, benefiting from elevated refining margins and constrained global fuel supplies.
However, the DJIA has limited exposure to this theme. Chevron is the index’s only energy constituent, leaving the benchmark less positioned to capitalize on the strong performance seen across the refining sector.
Treasury yields signal inflation concerns
The bond market remained a key driver of sentiment. The 30-year US Treasury yield climbed above 5.31%, its highest level in 19 years, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose beyond 4.72%. Even shorter-dated yields edged higher, indicating that investors are increasingly concerned about inflation rather than slowing economic growth.
Higher energy costs, particularly elevated diesel prices, are viewed as a potential source of future inflationary pressure, raising concerns about transportation and production costs across the economy.
Focus shifts to Fed minutes and key US data
Investors will now turn their attention to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Wednesday for additional clues regarding the Fed’s policy outlook. Upcoming data on housing activity, industrial production, jobless claims, and business activity surveys will also help shape expectations for interest rates in the coming weeks.
The DJIA maintains a bearish near-term outlook after breaking below the 53,500 region. Immediate resistance is located near 53,500, followed by 53,800 and 53,900. Additional upside barriers emerge around 54,100 and the record high near 54,750.
On the downside, initial support is seen around 53,400, followed by 53,200 and the psychological 53,000 level. A deeper correction could expose the 50-day EMA near 52,400.
Momentum indicators continue to favor sellers, with the daily Stochastic RSI remaining elevated while the index forms lower highs and lower lows. A daily close back above 53,800 would be required to invalidate the current bearish bias.
The US economic calendar is packed with key data this week, with investors closely watching the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes and July industrial production figures.
Last week delivered mixed inflation signals. Core CPI inflation eased to 2.5% year over year in July, marking its lowest level since March 2021. However, producer prices rose more sharply, with PPI increasing 4.4%. The July 28–29 FOMC minutes, due Wednesday, could offer insight into how Fed officials viewed inflation and monetary policy before receiving these latest readings.
Other important US releases include weekly jobless claims, regional business surveys, and Friday’s preliminary PMI figures. Earnings activity is relatively light, with Walmart and Alibaba among the notable companies scheduled to report quarterly results.
FOMC Meeting Minutes
The July FOMC minutes may highlight differences among policymakers regarding the economic and inflation outlook. Expectations for the Fed’s next policy moves have shifted following the latest CPI and PPI data, with markets now pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a September rate hike, down from more than 50% previously.
Jobless Claims
Initial unemployment claims rose to 209,000 in the week through August 7, moving above the 200,000 threshold for the first time in several weeks. Nevertheless, the four-week average remained near 199,000, indicating that labor-market conditions are still relatively tight. Continuing claims also declined, suggesting layoffs remain limited.
Business Activity Surveys
Recent surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve districts showed a notable improvement in business activity during July. Investors will look to the August surveys for confirmation that the recovery in regional manufacturing and business conditions is continuing.
Industrial Production
July industrial production is another major focus. Manufacturing hours worked increased slightly during the month, potentially pointing to a modest rise in factory output.
June industrial production had increased only 1.1% year over year, significantly weaker than the 4.8% annualized growth in real GDP goods during the second quarter. The persistent gap between these two measures has been evident for years, with GDP-related goods activity generally expanding faster than industrial production.
Key Global Economic Data
International markets will also have plenty to digest. Japan’s preliminary second-quarter GDP figures and China’s retail sales and industrial production data are due Monday. Canada will release inflation data, while the UK and euro area will publish additional inflation figures later in the week.
Global government bond yields have risen considerably this year. Ten-year yields are approaching 5% in Australia and the UK, while US yields are around 4.7%. Germany and Japan remain lower, at roughly 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively.
The upcoming economic releases could therefore provide important clues about whether the global bond-market repricing has further to go. Markets are also increasingly focused on the possibility of policy-rate increases from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank in September.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $62,900 on Friday, having lost more than 3% this week, though recent price action suggests the decline may be easing.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $332.08 million through Thursday, reflecting a more cautious stance among institutional investors.
Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to lift Oil prices and sustain a geopolitical risk premium, boosting demand for the US Dollar and limiting Bitcoin’s upside potential.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $62,900 on Friday, down more than 3% for the week as cautious institutional participation and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to pressure sentiment. Although the cryptocurrency is showing signs of stabilization, elevated Oil prices and escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are limiting risk appetite and keeping the near-term outlook for BTC subdued.
Middle East tensions continue to cap Bitcoin’s upside
Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict remained a key market theme this week, constraining demand for risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin. On Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Washington is preparing unprecedented economic measures against Iran, signaling that additional announcements could be unveiled in the coming days.
Meanwhile, Iranian officials maintained a defiant stance. Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated that Tehran’s objective is to make any confrontation so costly that future US administrations would hesitate before considering military action.
The standoff has also intensified around the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump reiterated that the United States maintains complete control over the critical shipping route, while Iran insisted the strait would remain closed until its demands are satisfied. At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen increased attacks on vessels operating in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait and claimed responsibility for a drone strike targeting a Saudi Aramco refinery, heightening fears of a wider regional conflict.
The combination of these developments has amplified uncertainty surrounding global energy supplies, sustaining a geopolitical risk premium in Oil markets. Higher energy prices and safe-haven demand have supported the US Dollar, weakened broader risk sentiment, and continued to act as a headwind for Bitcoin.
Institutional demand remains subdued
Institutional flows have provided little support for Bitcoin this week. According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of roughly $332 million through Thursday, highlighting a cautious approach among large investors. If Friday’s data also shows withdrawals, BTC could end the week with net ETF outflows, reflecting softer institutional demand and a more defensive market stance.
Cooling US inflation offers support, but Oil-driven risks persist
Recent US economic releases pointed to moderating inflationary pressures, potentially giving the Federal Reserve (Fed) greater flexibility to keep interest rates unchanged. While such a backdrop would normally favor risk assets, Bitcoin has struggled to capitalize on the softer macroeconomic data.
The latest figures showed that US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.4% year-over-year in July, down from 3.5% previously and in line with expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% annually, matching forecasts. Meanwhile, Producer Price Index (PPI) data released on Thursday came in weaker than expected, with monthly prices unchanged and annual producer inflation slowing to 4.7% from 5.5%.
Together with last week’s softer-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report, the data strengthens the case for the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its September meeting. A less aggressive monetary policy outlook generally benefits risk-oriented assets such as Bitcoin by reducing pressure from elevated borrowing costs and bond yields.
Comments from Fed officials, however, continue to send mixed signals. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that recent inflation pressures are largely tied to temporary factors such as tariffs and energy costs, supporting a patient policy approach. In contrast, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argued that inflation remains too high and that additional tightening may still be necessary to ensure price stability.
Market expectations have shifted accordingly. Fed funds futures now imply a little over a 65% chance of a rate hike before year-end, down sharply from nearly 85% a week ago. Although easing rate-hike expectations could provide a tailwind for Bitcoin, ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated Oil prices continue to bolster demand for the US Dollar, limiting the cryptocurrency’s upside potential in the near term.
What could shape Bitcoin’s performance in the second half of August?
According to Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, Bitcoin is currently in a phase of rebuilding momentum rather than entering a fresh bearish trend. The cryptocurrency has been trading within a volatile $63,000–$65,000 range, repeatedly struggling to secure a decisive breakout above the $65,000 mark.
Despite headwinds from rising bond yields and broader market uncertainty, Massabni believes Bitcoin’s ability to hold relatively steady suggests that buyers have not exited the market. Instead, investors appear to be waiting for a stronger catalyst before increasing exposure.
Addressing Bitcoin’s muted response to softer US inflation data, he noted that much of the positive inflation outlook had already been priced in by the market. Since the latest inflation figures largely met expectations, they failed to deliver the surprise needed to spark a new wave of buying. Investors are now focusing less on inflation itself and more on whether the data will lead to a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy and improved liquidity conditions.
Looking ahead, Massabni maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook. His base-case scenario sees Bitcoin ending August near $70,000, with a potential trading range between $68,000 and $72,000. However, he expects the path higher to remain volatile, requiring BTC to reclaim the $67,000 level to reinforce bullish momentum. A sustained move below the $61,000–$62,000 region, meanwhile, could delay or invalidate this constructive outlook.
Bitcoin technical outlook: Stabilization signals are beginning to appear
Bitcoin was trading around $62,900 on Friday after a modest rebound in recent sessions. Since mid-July, BTC has largely moved sideways between the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $65,520 and the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $64,000, reflecting a prolonged consolidation phase.
A weekly close above $65,520 could strengthen the recovery outlook and open the door for a move toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $78,490. Technical indicators on the weekly chart are showing early signs of improvement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been trending higher, reaching 38, while the bullish MACD crossover formed in mid-July remains intact, suggesting that downside momentum may be fading.
On the other hand, failure to hold above the 200-week SMA could trigger renewed selling pressure, potentially exposing the ascending trendline support near $60,000.
From a daily-chart perspective, Bitcoin remains in a broadly corrective structure. The cryptocurrency continues to trade below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and has been confined to a $62,300–$66,500 range since mid-July.
Momentum indicators still favor caution. The daily RSI sits at 41, while the MACD histogram remains slightly negative, indicating that sellers retain a modest near-term advantage despite signs of stabilization.
Key support is located at $62,300. A decisive break below this level could accelerate losses toward the July 1 yearly low of $57,800. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA near $64,458, followed by the 100-day EMA around $66,589, which aligns closely with horizontal resistance near $66,500. Until BTC regains these levels on a sustained basis, rallies may continue to face selling pressure, keeping the broader recovery attempt in check.
Gold advances toward $4,395 in early Asian trading on Monday.
Weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes, supporting bullion.
Geopolitical tensions remained elevated after Iranian officials told President Trump to “accept the reality of defeat” and ruled out resuming talks with the United States.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) advanced to around $4,395 during Monday’s Asian session, extending recent gains as softer US inflation readings continued to reduce expectations of additional Federal Reserve tightening.
Fresh data from the US Census Bureau showed Retail Sales fell 0.6% month-over-month in July, reversing June’s 0.2% increase and missing market forecasts for a 0.1% rise. On an annual basis, sales growth slowed to 5.0% from a revised 6.8% previously, signaling weaker consumer demand.
The disappointing retail figures reinforced last week’s CPI and PPI reports, which pointed to easing inflation pressures. As a result, the US Dollar came under pressure, providing support for gold, which is priced in USD.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign roughly a 33% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. Expectations for lower borrowing costs tend to favor gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset.
However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may influence market sentiment. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi criticized Washington after President Donald Trump suggested the Strait of Hormuz could soon become a “territory of the United States.” Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that no negotiations are underway between Tehran and Washington, emphasizing that US acceptance of Iran’s conditions would be required before shipping operations through the strategic waterway could resume.
Despite near-term volatility, Commerzbank analysts maintain a constructive outlook for gold. They believe the metal retains further upside potential if the Fed refrains from additional rate increases, although they caution that gains are unlikely to occur in a straight line, citing recent price swings. The bank also highlighted renewed inflows into gold-backed ETFs as a supportive factor that strengthens the medium-term bullish case for the precious metal.
Technical Analysis: Gold maintains a bullish bias above key support levels
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade with a positive undertone on the daily chart, holding above its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and remaining well supported by the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint. As long as these technical foundations remain intact, the broader near-term outlook favors further upside.
Momentum indicators also support the constructive view. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64.09, indicating bullish momentum while still remaining below overbought territory, leaving room for additional gains before buyers become overstretched.
On the upside, the first significant resistance is located near the upper Bollinger Band around $4,480, a level that could attract selling interest following recent price advances. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day SMA near $4,385.85. A deeper pullback could target the Bollinger midpoint around $4,195, while a decisive break below that zone may open the door toward the lower Bollinger Band support near $3,905.
Silver Price Outlook: XAG/USD Bulls Eye Sustained Break Above $66.00 Following 100-Day EMA Clearance
Silver extends its advance on Monday as persistent US Dollar weakness continues to support demand for the precious metal.
The broader technical picture remains positive, with momentum indicators favoring further upside in the near term.
However, a decisive breakout above the 100-day EMA is required to confirm the bullish outlook and open the door for additional gains.
Silver (XAG/USD) builds on Friday’s rebound from the mid-$63.00 area and continues to attract buyers at the start of the week. The metal is trading above $65.00, gaining roughly 1.5% on the day, although it remains capped below the critical 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
The US Dollar stays under pressure as investors further reduce expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes following softer inflation data and weak consumer spending figures in the United States. The weaker greenback is helping support demand for dollar-denominated commodities, including silver, reinforcing the potential for additional upside.
From a technical standpoint, XAG/USD has been consolidating within a relatively narrow range over the past week. This price action appears to represent a bullish pause following the strong recovery from July’s year-to-date low and the breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May–July decline.
Technical indicators continue to favor buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 61, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory, signaling that bullish momentum remains intact. However, silver must decisively clear the 100-day EMA resistance around $66.33 to strengthen the near-term bullish outlook.
A successful break above this level could expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $67.93, with further gains potentially targeting the midpoint retracement resistance around $72.02. On the downside, immediate support is located near the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $62.87. A move below this area could shift focus toward the lower boundary of the broader trading range around $54.70.
Post-CPI summer trading conditions continue to suppress FX volatility, keeping EUR/USD largely range-bound. However, our models indicate that the pair is becoming somewhat undervalued in the short term, reinforcing our moderately bullish outlook for the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, developments in the Gulf remain a secondary driver for currencies, with their impact more evident in relative-value trades than in major USD pairs.
USD: Watching for a Shift in Fed Rhetoric
The post-CPI midsummer environment is naturally weighing on FX volatility, and this subdued backdrop could persist for at least the next couple of weeks. Despite this, we continue to favour some downside for the US dollar, as we believe markets remain overly confident about the prospect of further Federal Reserve tightening.
For now, Fed officials’ comments represent the clearest potential catalyst for a meaningful market move. There remains considerable uncertainty over the tone that could emerge from the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month, particularly after the latest CPI report pointed somewhat toward a dovish interpretation without providing a conclusive signal.
Recent comments have offered mixed signals. Beth Hammack, who supported a rate hike, continued to argue in favour of tighter policy, while Tom Barkin expressed some reservations about the need for additional increases, despite not being viewed as a dovish FOMC member. A further softening in rhetoric from more centrist policymakers could strengthen expectations for a less hawkish Fed.
Today’s US economic calendar features July retail sales, forecast to rise just 0.1% month-on-month, alongside the University of Michigan surveys. With both releases considered relatively secondary, they would likely need to significantly exceed or miss expectations to generate a substantial dollar move.
Meanwhile, market attention toward Middle East headlines appears to be fading. US-Iran talks remain stuck, while Brent crude prices declined yesterday, offering some support to global bond markets. The threshold for oil prices to re-establish a strong direct influence on the dollar remains relatively high. Instead, Gulf developments may continue to have a greater impact on G10 relative-value pairs such as NOK/SEK and AUD/NZD, which remain more closely linked to the energy narrative.
EUR: Increasingly Undervalued
Our models estimate EUR/USD’s short-term fair value at around 1.1600–1.1650, largely reflecting an approximately 10bp narrowing in two-year swap rate differentials. These rate spreads continue to have a considerably stronger influence on the pair than other underlying factors.
This supports our constructive view on EUR/USD, although we do not expect a sustained move above 1.1600 in the coming days unless Fed communication turns notably more dovish. For now, EUR/USD bulls may instead focus on the strengthening technical support around 1.1500.
In the eurozone, the second estimate of second-quarter GDP is due today. Markets are not expecting any meaningful revision to the preliminary 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth figure.
JPY: BoJ Expectations Yet to Support the Yen
Despite significant moves in Japanese money markets this week, the yen has struggled to maintain upward momentum. The key development is the possibility that the Japanese government may become more accepting of a faster Bank of Japan tightening cycle.
Previously, markets assumed that a growth-focused government would limit the BoJ to roughly one rate hike every six months. The latest signals suggest Tokyo is placing greater emphasis on the exchange rate and wants to ensure that any potential joint intervention with the US to support the yen — the first such operation since 1998 — is effective.
Markets are now pricing roughly a 75% probability of a 25bp BoJ rate hike in September. As a result, two-year US-Japan swap differentials have narrowed by nearly 40bp since mid-July, a development that would normally put downward pressure on USD/JPY.
The pair’s resilience may instead reflect benign market conditions that continue to favour yen-funded carry trades. Nevertheless, the risks surrounding yen funding are clearly increasing. If the Fed leaves rates unchanged in September as expected, USD/JPY could potentially fall back below 158. In the meantime, traders seeking to express outright yen strength may increasingly turn to short CHF/JPY positions.
The total crypto market capitalization has remained largely unchanged, hovering around its $2.19 trillion “centre of gravity” for a third consecutive day. It has traded within a narrow $2.18 trillion–$2.20 trillion range, extending the broader sideways trend that has persisted since early June.
Prolonged periods of consolidation often encourage traders to tighten stop-loss levels and increase leverage as they become increasingly confident that the market will remain range-bound. This can sometimes set the stage for a final capitulation move, in which prices are pushed sharply lower before a recovery begins.
At the same time, large trading volumes frequently emerge toward the end of extended consolidation phases as long-term investors gradually build positions around their market expectations. In the current environment, some investors may be positioning ahead of potential cryptocurrency legislation expected later this autumn after Congress returns from recess. While the medium-term outlook remains constructive, the possibility of another sharp correction over the coming weeks should not be dismissed.
Bitcoin has struggled to move decisively away from support, hovering near $64,000 for a third consecutive day. The cryptocurrency was trading slightly below this level on Thursday morning but remained above its 50-day moving average.
Interestingly, the current price area is close to the highs recorded during Bitcoin’s 2021 bull market. A similar pattern emerged three years ago, when Bitcoin’s decline eventually found a floor around $20,000—roughly matching the peak of the previous bull market in late 2017.
This historical pattern strengthens the possibility that the current decline is approaching exhaustion, particularly as bearish momentum weakens and Bitcoin moves closer to its 200-week moving average. While short-term speculators may still be waiting for a more attractive entry point, long-term investors appear to be steadily accumulating around current levels. The relative stability of Bitcoin despite significant volatility across other markets provides further evidence of this underlying demand.
At the end of 2022, Bitcoin briefly traded almost 25% below $20,000 before staging a strong recovery, effectively providing investors with a significant “discount.” A similar scenario could occur this time, although relying on another deep pullback would be risky.
Bitcoin’s extended downtrend may have reached a “point of exhaustion,” according to Fairlead Strategies, as selling pressure has eased. However, fading bearish momentum does not necessarily mean that an immediate reversal is imminent.
Twenty One Capital posted a $413.5 million net loss in Q2, largely reflecting the decline in the value of Bitcoin held on its balance sheet. The company is the second-largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin, with 43,514 BTC valued at approximately $2.8 billion.
Strategy CEO Phong Le said the company plans to resume Bitcoin purchases by the end of the year. He noted that its buying activity has been roughly 25 times greater than its selling, with Strategy purchasing approximately 175,000 BTC since January while selling around 7,000 BTC. Le described Strategy as the “JPMorgan of the digital economy.”
Bitcoin miners continue to face weak fee revenue. Glassnode reports that transaction fees remain close to 10-year lows, while July was reportedly the least profitable month for miners in almost three years. Fees have represented less than 1% of miners’ total revenue over the past year.
Crypto spot trading activity also weakened in July. According to Wu Blockchain, spot volumes across crypto exchanges dropped 21.7% from June, falling below the $500 billion threshold for the first time in three years. Futures activity, meanwhile, was approximately seven times larger than spot trading.
On August 12, a routing failure at infrastructure provider TeraSwitch temporarily took validators representing 28.8% of Solana’s staked tokens offline. The figure came close to the 33.34% threshold at which the network would have stopped finalising transactions.
Meanwhile, two heavily leveraged Bitcoin short positions worth more than $210 million combined were opened on Hyperliquid using 40x leverage. Their liquidation levels are reportedly around $64,100 and $64,600, respectively.
In a separate development, one of Hong Kong’s early crypto millionaires, who began investing in cryptocurrencies in 2013, was found dead in Paraguay. Chainalysis reported 46 attacks targeting cryptocurrency holders during the first half of the year, resulting in losses exceeding $30 million.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined further this week, with just five vessels crossing on Wednesday and nine on Thursday, below the monthly average of 12, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.
On Thursday, five tankers entered the waterway while four departed, with most vessels using the Iranian side of the strait. By comparison, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea remained relatively active, with Kpler recording 19 commodity carriers passing through on Thursday. Reuters noted that the figures only include vessels with their transponders switched on.
The decline in Hormuz traffic comes as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate. Washington has warned that its naval blockade of Iran could remain in place indefinitely and that additional sanctions may be imposed to further pressure the Iranian economy. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the Navy could sustain the blockade by rotating vessels and indicated that further measures could be announced in the coming week.
Despite the increasingly prolonged standoff, oil prices have not fully reflected the potential supply risks. Traders have instead focused on a sharp increase in U.S. commercial crude inventories, which reportedly rose by more than 17.4 million barrels last week.
However, global oil inventories are continuing to decline, even as countries release crude from strategic reserves. Meanwhile, China, whose historically low oil imports in May and June helped limit pressure on prices, has started increasing its crude purchases again.
Analysts warn that if the deadlock over U.S.-Iran negotiations and control of the Strait of Hormuz continues for several more weeks, the physical oil market could reach a critical tipping point. At that stage, tightening supplies could trigger actual shortages and send oil prices sharply higher.
The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure against major currencies on Friday, although it has managed to limit its decline as investors reassess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook and monitor ongoing developments in the Middle East. In Europe, markets are awaiting second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, while later in the US session, attention will turn to July Retail Sales and the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index.
US economic data released Thursday showed that annual Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation eased to 4.7% in July from 5.5% in June, coming in below the 4.9% market forecast. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are now pricing roughly a 33% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, down from around 50% a week earlier. Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index remains below the 100.00 level during Friday’s European session.
Fed hawkishness remains as August inflation approaches
Commerzbank analysts believe upcoming US economic data will play a crucial role in determining the Fed’s next policy steps, particularly the August inflation figures due shortly before the next Fed meeting. They also pointed to Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack’s continued hawkish stance. Hammack argues that inflation is unlikely to decline on its own and that the Fed needs to support its rhetoric with concrete action. She has also suggested that a single rate hike would not be sufficient, highlighting that some policymakers remain focused on combating inflation despite recent signs of easing price pressures.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that Washington plans to introduce measures against Iran that would be unprecedented, while US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the US could maintain its blockade of Iran indefinitely. Oil prices reacted higher early Friday, with crude gaining around 1% to trade near $81.30.
Reuters reported Friday, citing three sources familiar with the matter, that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates as early as September and may accelerate its tightening pace thereafter from its current pattern of roughly two hikes per year. USD/JPY moved lower during the European morning, trading below 159.30.
Yen reaction remains limited despite BoJ tightening expectations
OCBC analysts noted that the Japanese Yen’s response has remained relatively muted despite growing expectations for another BoJ rate increase. If the central bank hikes rates again in September, it would represent its third increase within nine months and the fastest pace of monetary tightening since the collapse of Japan’s asset bubble in 1989. However, OCBC cautioned that uncertainty remains over the government’s willingness to support further rate increases beyond September or October, leaving investors unsure about the ultimate pace of Japan’s policy normalisation.
Gold remains pressured by Middle East uncertainty
Despite the changing expectations surrounding a September Fed rate move, uncertainty over the Middle East continues to limit Gold’s upside potential. After ending Thursday in negative territory, Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure on Friday, trading below $4,350 during the European session and down around 0.5% on the day.
EUR/USD recovered after dipping toward 1.1500 on Thursday and finished the session almost unchanged. The pair extended its recovery slightly on Friday, trading just below 1.1550. The Eurozone economy is expected to have expanded at an annualized rate of 1% in the second quarter.
GBP/USD also moved higher early Friday, fluctuating around 1.3500 after recording modest declines over the previous two sessions.
Gold extends its decline for a second straight day on Friday.
Easing expectations for a Fed rate hike may help cushion further downside in the non-yielding precious metal.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions could support the safe-haven US Dollar, potentially limiting gains in bullion.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher from around $4,300 heading into the European session on Friday, but remains in negative territory for a second consecutive day. The precious metal is attempting to stabilize after pulling back from $4,450, its highest level since June 5, reached the previous day. However, a mixed fundamental backdrop suggests caution before assuming the correction will extend.
US inflation data has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may remain patient with interest rates. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat in July, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase, while annual PPI inflation eased sharply to 4.7% from 5.5% in June and came in below the 4.9% forecast. Combined with Wednesday’s softer Consumer Price Index (CPI), the data points to moderating inflation and has kept the US Dollar under pressure, providing some support for non-yielding Gold.
Market expectations for Fed policy have shifted noticeably. The probability of a September rate hike has fallen to around 40%, compared with 72% at the end of July, while futures now price just over a 65% chance of a rate hike by year-end, down from nearly 85% a week earlier. Recent comments from Fed officials have also highlighted divisions over the appropriate policy path. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized patience, arguing that recent price increases may be temporary, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack maintained that inflation remains too high and could require additional rate increases.
Geopolitical tensions, however, could provide support for the safe-haven US Dollar and limit Gold’s upside. US officials have issued strong warnings toward Iran, while Tehran has vowed to make any potential conflict costly. Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are adding to the war-risk premium, with the US claiming control over the strategic waterway and Iran threatening to keep it closed until its demands are met. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthis have intensified attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict.
Against this backdrop, Gold’s downside appears relatively limited, but the mixed fundamental picture makes aggressive directional bets risky. XAU/USD has so far stalled its broader monthly advance from around the psychological $4,000 level. Traders will now focus on upcoming US Retail Sales and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for fresh clues on the economic and monetary-policy outlook.
Gold remains above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, while a cluster of Fibonacci support levels suggests that the broader bullish trend remains intact despite the recent correction. However, momentum has weakened. The MACD is trading below both zero and its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to around 42, indicating that buying pressure is losing strength.
On the downside, the first key support is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,285, based on the latest move higher from the August swing low. A break below this level could expose the 50.0% retracement near $4,234, followed by the 61.8% level around $4,184. The 200-period EMA also provides additional support in this area.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $4,347. Beyond that, Gold faces a major barrier around the $4,448.40 cycle high. A sustained break above this level would reinforce the bullish outlook and potentially open the door to further gains.
Dow Jones futures remain subdued as investors await the release of key US July Retail Sales data.
Weaker-than-expected PPI figures reduced expectations for a September Fed rate hike to 34.8%.
The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, while major US indexes ended Thursday with strong gains.
Dow Jones futures remain broadly unchanged around 53,910 during European trading on Friday, while S&P 500 futures hover near 7,820 and Nasdaq 100 futures edge down 0.09% to around 30,160.
US stock futures are trading in a narrow range as investors await July Retail Sales data, which could provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Cooling inflation has weighed on expectations for a September rate hike, with the CME FedWatch Tool now showing a 32.4% probability, down from 40.6% after the latest inflation figures.
The shift follows weaker-than-expected US producer inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline PPI was unchanged in July, below expectations for a 0.2% increase and following a revised 0.1% decline in June. Core PPI rose 0.2%, slightly below the 0.3% forecast. On a yearly basis, headline PPI increased 4.7%, while core PPI climbed 4.2%.
The softer inflation backdrop has added to the bullish momentum from Thursday, when major US indexes posted strong gains. The S&P 500 advanced 0.65% to a fresh record high, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.81%, putting both indexes on track for a third straight weekly advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 70 points but remains set for a weekly decline.
Market rally broadens beyond mega-cap technology
Deutsche Bank strategists noted that the latest equity rally was supported by a recovery in the Magnificent 7, which gained 1.20%, alongside broader strength across technology stocks. The Nasdaq rose 0.81%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index advanced 0.46%.
More importantly, the equal-weighted S&P 500 gained 0.74% and also reached a new record high, suggesting that the market’s gains are broadening beyond the largest technology companies and spreading across a wider range of stocks.
Bitcoin edged lower on Wednesday, slipping 0.2% to $63,487, as easing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike failed to offset lingering market concerns. Investor sentiment was weighed down by fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as well as continued pressure from recent selling activity by Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
July Inflation Data Meets Expectations
Markets closely monitored the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for clues on the Fed’s next policy move. The data followed a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report that had already prompted traders to reassess the likelihood of additional rate increases.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month in July after falling 0.4% in June, while annual inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.5%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.2% on a monthly basis and slowed to 2.5% year-over-year from 2.6%. All figures matched market forecasts.
Attention now shifts to the Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could provide further insight into inflation trends. While CPI and PPI remain important indicators, the Federal Reserve primarily focuses on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index when assessing inflation pressures.
Fed Rate Expectations Shift
The inflation data reinforced the view that policymakers may have room to keep interest rates unchanged rather than raise them further. Following the CPI release, CME FedWatch data showed the probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leaving rates unchanged in September rising to 62%, up from 54% previously.
JPMorgan economists Michael Feroli and Harry Downie estimated that core PCE likely increased 0.22% in July, which would keep the annual reading unchanged at 3.3%. However, they noted that the estimate could be revised after the release of July’s PPI figures.
The analysts added that the latest inflation report was unlikely to significantly strengthen either the hawkish or dovish camp within the Fed, leaving policymakers dependent on upcoming employment and inflation data. JPMorgan continues to expect a rate increase in December, although the possibility of an earlier move remains elevated.
Geopolitical Tensions Keep Markets on Edge
Beyond monetary policy, investors remained focused on developments in the Middle East. Hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz weakened as both the United States and Iran maintained firm positions regarding control of the strategic shipping route.
Former President Donald Trump stated that the United States had “total control” over the strait, while Iranian officials reiterated demands that Washington end hostilities and release frozen assets before any reopening could occur.
The uncertain outlook contributed to renewed volatility in energy markets. Brent crude briefly approached the $90-per-barrel mark as traders assessed supply risks linked to disruptions in the region. Additional concerns emerged after reported attacks on commercial shipping routes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Oman.
Altcoins Mostly Decline
The broader cryptocurrency market largely mirrored Bitcoin’s cautious performance. Ethereum gained 0.2% to trade near $1,881, while XRP fell 1.1%.
Elsewhere, Solana and BNB each slipped around 0.3%, while Cardano dropped 2.1%. Among meme-based cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin lost 1.8% and the TRUMP token declined 3.2%.
Overall, softer inflation data and reduced expectations for near-term Fed tightening provided limited support to digital assets, with geopolitical uncertainty and broader market caution continuing to cap upside momentum.
Silver prices remain range-bound near $65.40 as investors await the release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) figures.
Softer-than-expected US inflation readings for July have prompted markets to scale back expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
Both headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures in the United States eased in line with forecasts.
Silver (XAG/USD) traded within a narrow range around $65.40 during Thursday’s Asian session, with investors awaiting fresh direction from upcoming US economic data. While price action remained subdued, easing inflationary pressures in the United States have continued to support the metal’s broader outlook.
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 3.4% year-over-year in July from 3.5% in June. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also eased to 2.5% from 2.6%, matching market expectations.
The softer inflation readings have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may refrain from raising interest rates further in the near term. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its September meeting has climbed to nearly 60%, compared with just 30.4% a month earlier.
A less aggressive monetary policy outlook tends to benefit non-yielding assets such as Silver, as lower interest rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.
Market participants now turn their attention to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for July, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, which could provide additional clues about the inflation trend and the Fed’s policy path.
Silver continues to consolidate around $65.40 while maintaining a positive technical structure above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61.66. Holding above this key short-term trend indicator suggests that buying interest remains intact despite the recent pause in upward momentum.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61.17, remaining in bullish territory while still below overbought levels, indicating there is room for further gains if buying pressure strengthens.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA at $61.66 serves as immediate support and remains the key level to watch. A decisive break below this area could trigger a deeper correction. On the upside, a breakout above the current consolidation zone and resistance at $66.59 could pave the way for a move toward the June 16 peak near $71.19.
S&P 500 at Record Highs With a Low VIX: What History Suggests
A record close for the S&P 500 accompanied by subdued volatility has historically been associated more with a durable bull market than with the kind of investor complacency that typically precedes a major downturn.
Key Takeaways
The S&P 500 ended Friday at a fresh all-time high while the VIX closed below 15, an unusually low level of expected market volatility.
Historically, the combination of record equity prices and a low VIX has tended to signal a stable bullish environment rather than an imminent market reversal.
Among the previous 40 occurrences of this setup, none were followed by a 10% or greater closing drawdown during the next 13 weeks, compared with roughly 14% of typical market periods.
While a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report might normally weigh on sentiment, it instead helped fuel optimism that supported another record close for the benchmark index.
Although the S&P 500 has already logged 27 all-time highs this year, Friday’s advance stood out because it occurred alongside exceptionally low implied volatility. After removing overlapping occurrences and counting only the first signal within a four-week period, this combination has appeared just 40 times since the VIX was introduced in 1990.
Historical data from those episodes offers an interesting perspective. Near-term gains following the signal were generally a bit lower than average, but returns over longer horizons tended to be stronger. More importantly, downside risk was consistently reduced, with average drawdowns significantly smaller across all measured timeframes.
The findings suggest that markets reaching new highs while volatility remains muted have historically reflected confidence and stability rather than excessive complacency. Notably, none of the prior 40 instances resulted in a 10% correction within the subsequent 13 weeks, whereas such declines occurred in about 14% of ordinary periods.
Although no single indicator guarantees future performance, this historical pattern adds to the broader collection of constructive market signals. Taken together, the evidence suggests the current bull market may still have room to extend, and that a low VIX should not automatically be interpreted as a warning sign of an imminent downturn.
According to the daily chart, the S&P 500 remains firmly entrenched within a bullish channel that has guided price action for roughly 17 months. The index continues to trade comfortably inside this upward trend structure, leaving scope for an advance toward the 8,000 area before facing significant technical resistance.
The recent breakout above a three-month consolidation phase strengthens the bullish case, suggesting momentum remains in favor of further gains. As long as the index holds above the former record high around 7,620 and the rising 50-day EMA near 7,500, the path of least resistance appears to remain higher.
On the downside, a decisive move below these support levels would increase the risk that the breakout has failed. Such a development could trigger a deeper pullback, potentially exposing the lower boundary of the ascending channel, which currently sits near the 7,000 mark.
Ethereum traded around $1,874 on Tuesday, down 2.8% over the past 24 hours after fluctuating between roughly $1,867 and $1,929. The key development was its rejection near $1,929 and the subsequent drop below the $1,900 level, undoing a four-day effort to establish that zone as support. Ethereum’s market capitalization currently stands near $228 billion, with approximately 120.5 million ETH in circulation.
The decline appeared to be driven primarily by broader market caution ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. inflation report rather than any Ethereum-specific weakness. Bitcoin also slipped below $64,000 during the period, while liquidations of leveraged positions added pressure across the crypto market. However, Ethereum continues to stand out because of a growing disconnect between its underlying fundamentals and price performance.
Staking participation reached a record 41.41 million ETH on August 4, representing nearly 34% of the circulating supply. With almost one-third of all ether locked in staking, alongside declining exchange balances and increasing corporate treasury accumulation, supply-side indicators continue to point toward tightening availability.
Despite these scarcity dynamics, Ethereum remains 62.2% below its 2025 all-time high of approximately $4,953 and only about 12.5% above its recent low of $1,666. By comparison, Bitcoin is down roughly 49% from its peak, leaving Ethereum underperforming by around 13 percentage points. This disparity suggests that supply constraints alone have not been sufficient to drive a stronger recovery.
Institutional demand, however, has been improving. Spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $244 million in net inflows last week—the strongest weekly intake since April 2026. On August 7 alone, the products recorded $49.6 million in inflows, marking a fourth straight day of positive demand. Since launch, cumulative net inflows into spot ETH ETFs have reached approximately $11.65 billion, while total net assets have climbed to $10.74 billion, equivalent to about 4.65% of Ethereum’s market value.
From a technical perspective, Ethereum remains at a critical juncture. The immediate pivot level is $1,890.41, with resistance located at $1,911.97, $1,950.63, and $1,972.19. Key support levels sit at $1,851.74, $1,830.18, and $1,791.52. Momentum remains moderately positive, with the daily RSI at 55.47. Meanwhile, the 20-day EMA near $1,868 and the 50-day EMA around $1,850 are separated by less than $18, highlighting the narrow margin supporting current prices.
The next major catalyst arrives with Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report. Economists expect headline inflation to rise 3.4% year-over-year and core inflation to come in at 2.5%. The outcome could determine whether Ethereum breaks above nearby resistance or slips below its tightly packed support structure.
Break Below $1,900 Resets Ethereum’s Near-Term Technical Outlook
Ethereum’s four-day effort to transform the $1,900 level from resistance into support has come to an end, and the nature of the breakdown may be more significant than the level itself.
During Tuesday’s session, ETH climbed to $1,929 before reversing sharply to $1,867, marking a swing of roughly $62, or 3.3%. The session high coincided with a cluster of major technical barriers, including the $1,927 resistance zone and the 100-day exponential moving average near $1,924. With several key reference points concentrated within a narrow range, the rejection reinforced the strength of that resistance area.
More importantly, the subsequent decline sliced through $1,900 with little resistance, suggesting the level had not yet developed meaningful buyer support despite holding for several sessions. Short-lived support zones often lack the depth needed to absorb selling pressure, making them vulnerable when momentum shifts.
At current levels around $1,874, Ethereum remains below the daily pivot point at $1,890.41 while staying above initial support at $1,851.74. This creates a relatively narrow trading corridor of roughly $39, or just over 2% of price, meaning a decisive move could emerge quickly.
Should ETH fall below $1,851.74, attention would shift to support levels at $1,830.18 and $1,791.52. The $1,840 region, which previously helped spark a rebound and coincided with improving ETF inflows, remains an important intermediate area. A sustained break beneath $1,830 could expose the market to a deeper decline toward $1,791, where stronger structural support resides.
On the upside, resistance levels are positioned at $1,911.97, $1,950.63, and $1,972.19. The $1,930 area remains the key hurdle. A successful break and hold above that threshold would likely revive bullish momentum and increase the probability of a move toward the broader $1,950–$2,000 zone, where a more meaningful breakout could develop.
From a broader perspective, Ethereum’s projected weekly trading range spans approximately $1,850 to $1,975, representing a 6.8% spread. With spot prices currently near $1,874, ETH remains in the lower portion of that range—a position it has occupied for much of the past three weeks, reflecting continued caution among market participants despite improving long-term supply dynamics.
Compressed EMA Structure Signals a Potential Volatility Breakout
Ethereum’s moving averages have converged into an unusually tight formation, a condition that often precedes a significant expansion in volatility.
The 20-day exponential moving average currently sits near $1,868, the 50-day EMA around $1,850, and the 100-day EMA near $1,924. The gap between the 20-day and 50-day averages is just $17.60—less than 1% of ETH’s price—while the distance between the 50-day and 100-day averages is approximately $74, or about 4%.
With Ethereum trading around $1,874, the asset remains above both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs but below the 100-day EMA. This configuration typically reflects a short-term recovery occurring within a broader medium-term downtrend. Similar setups have recently appeared in both Bitcoin and gold before notable directional moves emerged.
The narrow separation between the 20-day and 50-day EMAs is particularly important because it provides little technical support beneath current prices. A decline of roughly 1% would push ETH below both averages simultaneously, potentially accelerating selling pressure. When moving averages become tightly clustered, markets often experience sharp directional breaks rather than gradual trend shifts.
Simple moving averages reinforce a similar outlook. The 50-day SMA is projected to remain near current price levels in the coming weeks, while the 200-day SMA continues to trend lower. Rather than requiring a strong rally to reconnect with the long-term trend indicator, Ethereum may simply meet a declining 200-day average over time if prices remain range-bound.
That downward-sloping 200-day SMA remains one of the market’s most important structural features. As it gradually descends, it reduces the distance ETH must travel to challenge long-term resistance, increasing the likelihood of a decisive trend resolution in the months ahead.
Across timeframes, the technical picture remains mixed. Four-hour and daily charts continue to show improving momentum, with shorter-term moving averages rising beneath price. However, the weekly trend remains less constructive, as longer-term averages still sit above the market and point lower. In essence, Ethereum is recovering, but it has not yet fully repaired the broader bearish structure established earlier in the cycle.
Neutral RSI Leaves the Market Waiting for a Catalyst
Ethereum’s daily Relative Strength Index stands at 55.47, placing it comfortably above the neutral 50 level but well below the overbought threshold near 70.
This reading offers little directional guidance and instead reflects a market in consolidation mode ahead of a major macroeconomic event. Momentum indicators often flatten before high-impact data releases as traders reduce directional exposure while awaiting new information.
Compared with the capitulation conditions seen earlier this year, current market dynamics appear far healthier. During the February 2026 selloff, ETH experienced its steepest monthly decline of the cycle, ETF outflows intensified, and RSI readings plunged into deeply oversold territory. Those conditions ultimately helped establish the recovery low near $1,666.
Today’s environment is markedly different. Ethereum is trading near the lower end of its recent range, yet momentum remains neutral rather than oversold. This suggests that selling pressure has eased, but it does not necessarily indicate that buyers have regained control.
That distinction is particularly relevant ahead of the upcoming U.S. CPI release. If inflation exceeds expectations, Ethereum could face renewed downside pressure without the cushion of oversold technical conditions. Conversely, a softer inflation reading could ignite a rally from a neutral momentum base, leaving ample room for RSI to climb before signaling an overheated market.
Recent price action also reflects subdued volatility. Ethereum’s 24-hour range of approximately $62 is relatively modest by historical standards, indicating that traders are largely waiting for a catalyst before committing to a new directional move. Meanwhile, derivatives positioning suggests that recent selling was driven more by the unwinding of existing long positions than by aggressive new short activity.
For now, the daily pivot at $1,890.41 remains the key reference point. A move above that level would reinforce the case for consolidation and recovery toward higher resistance zones. A sustained break below it, however, would strengthen the argument that the market is entering a new phase of distribution and downside risk.
Record Staking Levels Highlight Ethereum’s Growing Supply Scarcity
Ethereum’s on-chain fundamentals continue to present one of the most striking contrasts in the digital asset market. While the price remains more than 60% below its all-time high, network participation and supply lockup metrics have never been stronger.
As of August 4, a record 41.41 million ETH was staked on the network, representing 33.98% of the circulating supply. Notably, this milestone was reached during a prolonged bear-market drawdown, indicating that validators continued to commit capital despite significant price weakness rather than withdrawing from the network.
At the same time, staking yields have moved in the opposite direction. The seven-day staking annual percentage rate has fallen to 2.66%, down from a peak above 5% in mid-2023. Because Ethereum’s staking rewards decline as participation increases, the surge in staked ETH has directly contributed to lower returns.
This creates an increasingly challenging investment equation. With the Federal Reserve’s policy rate sitting between 3.50% and 3.75% and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield near 4.7%, staked ETH currently offers a lower yield than traditional fixed-income alternatives while exposing investors to cryptocurrency price volatility, validator risks, and liquidity constraints.
Yet participation continues to rise. In March, approximately 37 million ETH—around 31% of supply—was staked. Five months later, another 4.4 million ETH has entered the validator set despite further yield compression. The trend suggests that participants are prioritizing long-term network exposure over short-term income generation.
The resulting supply structure is becoming increasingly restrictive. With roughly one-third of all ETH staked, declining exchange balances, and growing corporate treasury allocations, a substantial portion of circulating supply is effectively removed from active trading. As a result, more than half of Ethereum’s available supply is held in long-term structures that rarely participate in day-to-day market activity.
This tightening supply profile remains one of the strongest long-term bullish arguments for Ethereum. However, recent price action demonstrates that supply scarcity alone is insufficient to drive appreciation without a corresponding increase in demand.
Validator Growth Suggests a Shift Toward Institutional Participation
Beyond the headline staking figures, validator activity offers additional insight into changing market dynamics.
After declining to roughly 880,000 active validators during the first half of 2026, the validator count has recently rebounded to approximately 893,000. The increase of around 13,000 validators is particularly noteworthy because it occurred while staking yields remained near multi-year lows.
This suggests that the new participants entering the network may differ significantly from those who exited. Operators willing to accept yields near 2.66% are likely either more cost-efficient, more focused on long-term asset ownership, or less dependent on staking returns as a primary source of revenue. These characteristics are generally more consistent with institutional participants than with smaller retail operators.
From a market-structure perspective, this shift is significant. Institutional validators are typically less sensitive to short-term yield fluctuations and more likely to hold assets for strategic purposes, such as treasury management, custodial services, or investment product mandates. As a result, the portion of ETH locked in staking becomes increasingly “sticky” and less responsive to market volatility.
One factor supporting this trend is the growing integration of staking into institutional investment products. The introduction of staking-enabled spot Ethereum funds has allowed professional investors to gain ETH exposure while also earning network rewards, making staking more attractive within regulated investment frameworks.
If institutional participation continues to expand, Ethereum’s supply available for trading could tighten even further. However, the trend also introduces new considerations. A validator ecosystem increasingly concentrated among large operators may raise concerns around governance influence, network centralization, and potential bottlenecks during periods of elevated withdrawal activity.
Overall, the combination of record staking participation, rising validator counts, and shrinking liquid supply points to a structurally tightening Ethereum market. The key question remains whether demand can eventually catch up to these increasingly restrictive supply dynamics.
The demand side of the Ethereum market has shown clear signs of improvement, supported by a meaningful recovery in spot ETF flows.
Spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $244 million in net inflows last week, marking their strongest weekly performance since April 2026. Momentum also improved on a daily basis, with the sector recording four consecutive sessions of positive flows. On August 7 alone, net inflows reached $49.6 million, led primarily by BlackRock’s ETF, which accounted for more than three-quarters of the day’s total, while Fidelity’s product also contributed notable demand.
Total net assets held by spot Ethereum ETFs have now risen to approximately $10.74 billion, representing about 4.65% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization. Meanwhile, cumulative assets under management across the broader ETF ecosystem have expanded to roughly $13.7 billion, reflecting growing institutional participation.
July marked an important turning point. The ETF sector generated more than $365 million in net inflows during the month, reversing the outflow trend that dominated much of the first half of 2026. This shift suggests that regulated investors have become increasingly willing to accumulate Ethereum exposure following months of weak sentiment and price declines.
The recent inflows largely coincided with Ethereum’s rebound from the $1,840 area and appeared to support expectations that the market could break decisively above the $1,900 resistance zone. However, Tuesday’s rejection near $1,929 and subsequent drop back below $1,900 indicate that selling pressure at those levels outweighed the ETF-driven demand, at least in the short term.
It is important to distinguish between daily flow data and broader trends. Individual sessions can be volatile and often provide limited insight into institutional conviction. For example, the ETF complex experienced net outflows at the end of July before quickly shifting back into accumulation mode. What matters more is the emergence of sustained multi-day inflow streaks.
By that measure, the latest data is encouraging. Four straight sessions of positive flows combined with a $244 million weekly inflow represent the strongest period of institutional accumulation since April. Notably, these purchases occurred while Ethereum traded between roughly $1,840 and $1,930, suggesting that investors were willing to add exposure despite ongoing uncertainty around the broader market outlook.
Positive Flows Matter, but Scale Remains a Constraint
While ETF demand has improved, its overall scale remains relatively modest compared with the size of the Ethereum market.
A weekly inflow of $244 million represents only about 0.11% of Ethereum’s $228 billion market capitalization. Although this is a meaningful amount of capital, it is not yet large enough to single-handedly drive a sustained trend reversal.
Interestingly, Ethereum’s ETF inflows have recently been proportionally larger than those seen in Bitcoin products relative to market size. This means that each dollar entering Ethereum ETFs can have a greater impact on price dynamics. However, because the total amount of capital involved remains smaller, the support provided by these flows is still limited compared with broader market forces.
Historical precedent also highlights the importance of persistence. Earlier in 2026, Ethereum experienced a much stronger institutional demand wave, including a lengthy inflow streak and a surge in daily purchases driven by enthusiasm surrounding staking-enabled investment products. While that episode initially boosted sentiment, inflows eventually cooled and failed to sustain upward momentum.
The current recovery in ETF demand is therefore a constructive development rather than definitive proof of a lasting trend change. To materially alter Ethereum’s market structure, the recent inflow streak will likely need to continue and broaden into a longer period of sustained institutional accumulation.
For now, ETF data suggests that demand is improving and that professional investors are gradually returning to the market. Whether that demand becomes strong enough to overcome key resistance levels and support a larger recovery remains one of the central questions for Ethereum in the months ahead.
Silver advances toward $65.40 as investors await the release of July US CPI figures.
Economists forecast annual headline and core inflation to increase by 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
Crude oil prices remain elevated amid a significant decline in shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.
Silver (XAG/USD) climbed about 1.1% to trade near $65.40 during Wednesday’s Asian session, supported by investor caution ahead of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July at 12:30 GMT.
Market forecasts suggest that annual US headline inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.5% in June. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is also expected to slow to 2.5% year-over-year from 2.6% previously. On a monthly basis, headline CPI is projected to rise 0.1%, while core inflation is anticipated to increase 0.2%.
The inflation figures are expected to provide fresh insight into the Federal Reserve’s policy path. In the Fed’s most recent policy statement, Chair Kevin Warsh highlighted persistent upside inflation risks and reiterated the central bank’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2% objective.
However, silver’s gains could be restrained by the continued surge in oil prices, driven by supply concerns linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Data from Kpler showed that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—an essential route for nearly one-fifth of global energy shipments—fell to only six ships on August 10, compared with an average of around 11 over the previous ten days. The figure remains dramatically below pre-conflict levels of roughly 130–140 vessels per day, according to Reuters.
Separately, CME Group announced on Tuesday that it will introduce 24-hour trading for its 100-ounce silver futures contract starting in September, following strong demand for its recently launched 1-ounce gold futures contract, Reuters reported.
On the daily timeframe, XAG/USD is trading around $65.53, maintaining its upward momentum above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $61.28, a signal that the short-term bullish trend remains intact.
The metal has continued to move higher after breaking out of its previous consolidation range. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61.21, indicating positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory, suggesting there is still room for further gains.
From a technical perspective, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA around $61.28. This level serves as a key foundation for the current recovery and could attract buying interest if prices retreat. On the upside, a decisive break above the August 10 peak at $66.59 may open the door for a rally toward the June 17 high of $71.56.
U.S. stock futures were largely unchanged on Tuesday night following a second consecutive day of losses on Wall Street, as investors remained cautious ahead of key inflation data that could provide insight into the Federal Reserve’s future interest-rate decisions.
S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1% to 7,752.0, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.1% to 29,665.0. Dow Jones futures were little changed at 53,868.0.
Investors Focus on CPI Report for Fed Policy Signals
During Tuesday’s regular trading session, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3%.
Market participants are now looking toward Wednesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which is expected to play a key role in shaping expectations for upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Analysts forecast that headline inflation increased 0.1% in July after a 0.4% decline in June. On an annual basis, CPI is projected to ease slightly to 3.4% from 3.5% previously.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month.
The inflation report carries added significance after recent weakness in the U.S. labor market dampened expectations of a Fed rate hike in September. However, stronger-than-anticipated inflation data could prompt investors to reassess the likelihood of tighter monetary policy.
With major U.S. equity indexes still trading near record levels, markets remain highly sensitive to any signs that inflationary pressures are proving more persistent than policymakers had hoped.
Oil Advances Further as Hormuz Uncertainty Continues to Weigh on Markets
Geopolitical tensions remained a key concern for investors as negotiations between the United States and Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz encountered additional setbacks. Tehran reportedly sought major concessions, including access to frozen Iranian funds and a reduction of U.S. involvement in regional conflicts, while President Donald Trump insisted that Iran should provide compensation for damages linked to the crisis.
The ongoing uncertainty surrounding one of the world’s most important energy transit routes continued to support crude prices. Brent oil climbed for a sixth consecutive session on Wednesday, recovering toward the $90-per-barrel mark as traders assessed the risks to global supply flows.
Concerns were further amplified by new security incidents in regional shipping lanes. Houthi forces claimed responsibility for an attack on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that resulted in multiple fatalities, including cargo ship crew members and Yemeni rescue personnel. Separately, the U.S. Navy reportedly disabled a Panama-flagged ship near the Gulf of Oman, adding to fears that maritime disruptions could persist and delay any near-term easing of tensions.
Bitcoin dropped under the $65,000 mark on Monday, retreating as higher oil prices dampened investor appetite for risk. Market sentiment was also affected by another Bitcoin sale from major corporate holder Strategy.
The leading cryptocurrency was down 1.6%, trading at $64,147.9 as of 17:00 ET (21:00 GMT).
Traders focus on U.S. inflation data for Federal Reserve signals
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market gained support on Friday after U.S. employment data revealed the first monthly decline in nonfarm payrolls since February, driven largely by losses in local government education jobs. Payroll figures for May and June were also revised down by a combined 103,000 positions.
The labor report added uncertainty to the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. While the broader job market continues to show resilience, inflation concerns remain elevated due to volatile oil prices linked to the conflict involving Iran. Some Fed officials also indicated a preference for tighter monetary policy during the central bank’s July meeting.
Following the data release, traders reduced expectations for a September interest-rate increase. Higher borrowing costs typically reduce demand for risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Investors are now turning their attention to a series of key U.S. inflation reports this week for further guidance on the Fed’s next moves. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, while July retail sales data will be released on Friday.
Oil surge and Hormuz tensions weigh on crypto sentiment
Oil prices jumped nearly 5% on Monday after Iran rejected direct negotiations with the United States and reiterated that a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would depend on Washington meeting a series of demands. Concerns over global energy supplies intensified further following attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on Saudi energy facilities, prompting investors to seek safety in the U.S. dollar.
Crude prices had fallen the previous week on optimism surrounding potential U.S.-Iran talks. However, those losses narrowed as Tehran repeatedly denied claims of ongoing negotiations and reports emerged that a proposed Hormuz management framework could restrict access for U.S., Israeli, and other vessels deemed hostile.
Iranian state media reported that a parliamentary committee had approved the framework, including the proposed restrictions. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran and Oman were still working on a joint statement governing the strait, adding that the plan would establish monitoring mechanisms for vessel traffic and involve compensation arrangements.
Tehran also reaffirmed that direct talks with Washington remain off the table, citing alleged breaches of the temporary peace agreement reached in June. Iranian officials maintained that lifting sanctions, ending the U.S. naval presence, and compensation for wartime damages are prerequisites for fully reopening the strategic waterway.
U.S. President Donald Trump responded by stating that Iran’s compensation demands would be met with U.S. claims for damages as well, adding that his negotiating team had been instructed to include the issue in any future discussions.
Strategy trims Bitcoin holdings
Separately, Strategy disclosed in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it sold 1,690 Bitcoin between August 3 and August 9 for approximately $108.6 million, at an average price of $64,262 per coin.
Following the sale, the company’s Bitcoin holdings declined to 840,447 BTC, currently worth about $54.7 billion. Strategy’s average acquisition cost remains around $75,385 per Bitcoin, representing a total investment of roughly $63.4 billion, including related expenses.
The transaction came shortly after the company raised $653.1 million through the sale of more than 6.5 million shares of MSTR stock. Strategy said the proceeds were used to repurchase over 1.15 million shares of its STRC preferred stock and strengthen its cash position, which stood at $4.65 billion as of August 9.
Altcoins track Bitcoin lower
The broader cryptocurrency market also traded in negative territory on Monday, with most major altcoins posting losses alongside Bitcoin.
Ethereum declined 2.4% to $1,877.78.
XRP dropped 2.3% to $1.0189.
Solana lost 1.3%.
Cardano fell 2.6%.
Dogecoin slipped 1%.
The pullback across digital assets reflected a combination of risk-off sentiment driven by geopolitical uncertainty, rising energy prices, and investor caution ahead of key U.S. inflation data later this week.
WTI could extend its gains as President Trump’s latest compensation demands on Tehran reduce expectations for a near-term peace deal.
Washington is reportedly leaning toward tougher economic sanctions rather than military intervention to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Negotiations between Oman and Iran over restoring access to the key shipping corridor remain at a standstill while both sides await progress on a broader agreement with the US.
WTI crude oil extends its rally after surging more than 6.5% in the previous session, trading near $81.40 during Tuesday’s Asian session. Oil prices remain supported as uncertainty deepens over prospects for a US-Iran agreement aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
Workers manage crude oil barrels near a pipe discharging oily wastewater at an extraction site.
Expectations for a quick resolution have faded after US President Donald Trump unveiled a new set of demands for Tehran, including compensation for victims of regional conflicts. The announcement followed Iran’s insistence on receiving reparations as part of any agreement to end the war, raising concerns that supply disruptions could persist for longer than previously anticipated.
Instead of pursuing additional military action to reopen the crucial shipping corridor, the US administration appears to favor escalating economic sanctions on Iran. At the same time, talks between Iran and Oman regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked, with Tehran linking progress to the achievement of a broader peace deal with Washington.
Additional support for crude prices comes from growing skepticism over a near-term diplomatic breakthrough. Analysts at TD Securities noted that a resolution to tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to achieve, describing a potential “Hormuz deal” as still out of reach. The bank added that persistent geopolitical risks and the threat of disruptions at major energy transit routes continue to provide a favorable backdrop for oil prices and trend-following market participants.
Gold extends its advance for a third consecutive session, reaching its highest level in more than two months on Tuesday.
Easing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes continue to support demand for the non-yielding precious metal.
Investors may remain cautious ahead of new geopolitical developments and the release of the latest US inflation data.
Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward momentum for a third straight session on Tuesday, marking gains in five of the past six trading days and reaching its highest level since early June above the $4,400 threshold during Asian trading. The rally has been supported by last Friday’s weaker-than-expected US employment data, which signaled a softening labor market and reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy further, boosting demand for the non-yielding precious metal.
Despite the advance, concerns over inflation remain in focus as oil prices stay volatile amid the ongoing Iran conflict. These inflation risks have prevented markets from fully dismissing the possibility of additional Fed rate hikes, helping the US Dollar maintain recent gains and limiting Gold’s upside potential. Adding to geopolitical uncertainty, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s request for compensation related to war damages and instead blamed Tehran for casualties across the region.
Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated after Iran ruled out renewed negotiations with Trump until after his term ends in January 2029, reducing hopes for a near-term resolution and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait caused by Houthi naval actions continue to constrain shipping activity, contributing to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns. Markets still anticipate at least one Federal Reserve rate increase in 2026.
These factors continue to support higher US Treasury yields and provide underlying strength to the US Dollar, suggesting caution for traders expecting Gold’s rally to extend aggressively in the short term. Market participants are also likely to focus on upcoming US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index due Wednesday and the Producer Price Index scheduled for Thursday. The reports could offer important clues about the Fed’s policy outlook and shape the next move in both the Dollar and Gold markets.
A decisive intraday move above both the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June decline indicates that bullish momentum remains intact. This strengthens the case for a continued advance toward the 200-day SMA around $4,498, with further upside targets at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $4,515 and the 78.6% retracement level around $4,669.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 50% retracement level near $4,406, followed closely by the 100-day SMA around $4,389. A deeper pullback could expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at roughly $4,297, while stronger support emerges near the 23.6% retracement around $4,162. Beyond that, the major downside reference remains the cycle low near $3,945.
Financial history is filled with spectacular collapses caused by the same dangerous combination: excessive leverage, concentrated directional bets, and positions that become difficult to exit during stress. When markets move against highly leveraged investors, margin calls often arrive long before assets can be sold at reasonable prices.
One notable example occurred in early 2021 when the family office Archegos Capital Management accumulated roughly $100 billion in market exposure while backed by only about $20 billion in equity. A stock offering by ViacomCBS sparked a sharp decline in its shares, triggering margin calls from prime brokers. After Archegos failed to meet those demands, banks rushed to unload billions of dollars of stock, accelerating the collapse.
The firm’s entire equity base was wiped out within days. Among the hardest-hit institutions was Credit Suisse, which suffered losses exceeding $5.5 billion. The damage contributed to the bank’s eventual downfall and rescue by UBS.
A similar story unfolded in 1998 with Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). The hedge fund amassed more than $125 billion in assets and roughly $1.25 trillion in derivative exposure while operating with only $4.7 billion in equity, implying leverage exceeding 25-to-1.
Founded by renowned trader John Meriwether alongside Nobel laureates Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, LTCM pursued fixed-income arbitrage strategies designed to profit from tiny pricing inefficiencies. Those trades relied heavily on borrowed money.
The strategy unraveled after Russia defaulted on its domestic debt in August 1998. Investors fled to safety, liquidity evaporated, and market relationships that LTCM depended upon broke down. With fears of systemic financial contagion spreading, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York coordinated a $3.65 billion private-sector rescue involving 14 major financial institutions to unwind the fund’s positions in an orderly manner.
A decade later, the world endured the Global Financial Crisis, driven in large part by excessive leverage embedded throughout the subprime mortgage market. That era inspired films such as Margin Call and The Big Short, both illustrating how leverage can transform manageable losses into systemic threats.
More recently, attention shifted to the reported collapse of Situational Awareness LP, a hedge fund that reportedly employed leverage of around 400%. The fund suffered a dramatic drawdown that triggered widespread margin calls and forced the liquidation of much of its portfolio.
The fund, managed by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, had reportedly grown rapidly before suffering losses estimated at roughly 67%. Its strategy often involved highly leveraged pair trades, such as buying AI infrastructure and hardware stocks while shorting established software companies. That approach failed when AI-related holdings plunged while short positions simultaneously rallied, inflicting losses on both sides of the trade.
As losses mounted, major prime brokers demanded additional collateral. To avoid a disorderly liquidation, Citadel stepped in and acquired a large portion of the fund’s public-equity portfolio through a block transaction, reducing immediate market disruption.
The episode reflects a broader trend: leverage increased substantially during the technology and AI-driven rally. FINRA margin debt recently climbed to record nominal levels, estimated between $1.25 trillion and $1.28 trillion.
Whether that represents excessive risk depends on the benchmark used. Relative to total stock-market capitalization, margin debt stands near 1.8%–1.9%, broadly consistent with historical norms. This suggests borrowing has risen largely alongside equity values rather than dramatically outpacing them.
However, when compared with U.S. GDP, margin debt is significantly elevated at roughly 4.1%, well above long-term averages. That indicates investors are assuming greater financial risk relative to the size of the underlying economy.
Institutional investors have generally diversified into market-neutral, quantitative, and lower-beta strategies to reduce directional exposure. Meanwhile, retail traders and momentum-focused investors remain heavily concentrated in leveraged ETFs, options, and high-growth technology stocks.
Although leverage relative to market capitalization does not appear extreme, the sheer amount of debt in the system leaves markets vulnerable to sudden shocks. Large debt balances reduce the market’s tolerance for mistakes. A disappointing earnings report or interest-rate shock can trigger margin calls, forced selling, and a self-reinforcing cycle of declining prices.
To manage these risks, prime brokers have strengthened their risk controls. Many now rely on continuous intraday monitoring rather than end-of-day assessments, allowing them to identify leverage problems in real time.
Risk managers are also adjusting margin requirements more aggressively for volatile, crowded, or illiquid positions. Lenders increasingly evaluate a fund’s total leverage across multiple broker relationships, making it harder to conceal excessive borrowing by spreading trades across different institutions.
Global interconnectedness adds another layer of vulnerability. A rapid deleveraging event in Asia can quickly affect U.S. equities and fixed-income markets through funding channels, Treasury holdings, and cross-border risk models.
Because there is no global authority capable of halting trading across all markets simultaneously, systemic selling pressure can simply migrate from one region to another. Stopping the panic in one market does not necessarily eliminate the underlying risk—it may merely shift it elsewhere.
Although markets recovered quickly following the recent turmoil, aided by strong AI-related earnings results, the U.S. remains exposed to potential spillover effects from highly leveraged global markets.
By acquiring Situational Awareness’s concentrated equity positions off-market, Citadel helped prevent a disorderly fire sale and reduced the risk of a chain reaction among other funds holding similar positions, illustrating how quickly leverage can transform isolated losses into broader market concerns.
How Parents Can Support Their Adult Children Financially Without Undermining Retirement
The Beatles may have sung that money can’t buy love, but for many young adults today, money can make a significant difference. People in their 20s and 30s are facing a challenging financial environment marked by AI-driven job market disruptions, high rents, elevated living costs, and housing prices that remain out of reach for many first-time buyers. With median home prices approaching $400,000, even a standard 20% down payment can feel impossible to accumulate.
As a result, many parents are confronted with a difficult question: Should they provide financial assistance, or should they encourage their children to navigate these challenges independently?
A Generational Perspective
Many Baby Boomers inherited a conservative financial mindset from parents who lived through the Great Depression. Core principles such as living frugally, paying off debt, investing cautiously, and preserving principal shaped their approach to wealth.
However, for parents who ultimately intend to leave assets to their children, the real consideration may be whether financial support is more valuable today than as a future inheritance. Assistance provided now could help adult children purchase a home, launch a business, pursue further education, or start a family—milestones that may otherwise be delayed due to financial pressures.
When It’s More About Parenting Than Money
For families with substantial liquid wealth, the decision often becomes less about financial capacity and more about personal philosophy. By adulthood, children have generally developed their attitudes toward work and responsibility. If they are making genuine efforts but struggling against broader economic realities, financial support can serve as a catalyst for opportunity rather than a simple handout.
Ways Parents Can Help Without Jeopardizing Retirement
Parents do not need vast wealth to provide meaningful assistance. With careful planning, support can be structured in ways that minimize the impact on retirement security.
Use Appreciated Investments Strategically: Gifting assets with long-term capital gains can provide children with access to funds while preserving the parent’s recurring investment income.
Optimize Social Security Planning: Parents may choose to allocate part of their Social Security income to help children financially, whether by claiming benefits earlier or by delaying benefits to increase future payouts.
Offer Family Loans: Parents can lend money directly to their children using IRS-compliant interest rates, potentially providing more favorable borrowing terms than traditional lenders while keeping interest payments within the family.
Key Takeaway
Supporting adult children financially does not have to come at the expense of retirement stability. For parents with the means to help, even modest assistance can have a meaningful impact on their children’s lives. In many cases, providing support when it is most needed may create more value than leaving a larger inheritance years down the road.
The US Dollar remains supported by strong safe-haven inflows as uncertainty persists over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
A larger-than-expected decline of 23,000 jobs in July, coupled with downward revisions to previous payroll figures, points to a softening US labor market and reduces expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September Fed rate increase has fallen to 46%, compared with 67% previously.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, edged higher to around 99.70 during Monday’s Asian session, recovering after posting slight losses in the previous trading day.
Demand for the US Dollar remains supported by a cautious market mood as geopolitical risks stay elevated. The conflict between the United States and Iran has entered a sensitive diplomatic stage, while ongoing military activity and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive investors toward safe-haven assets. Although Iran indicated that Oman-mediated talks on managing the waterway are progressing, traders remain reluctant to abandon defensive positions, helping the Dollar retain its strength.
Meanwhile, softer US labor market data has reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening in the near term. July’s Nonfarm Payrolls report showed an unexpected decline of 23,000 jobs, while June’s payroll growth was revised down sharply to 20,000 from 57,000, reinforcing signs of a cooling employment environment.
Market expectations for a September rate hike have consequently weakened. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows traders now assign roughly a 46% chance of a 25-basis-point increase next month, compared with 67% a week ago. Attention is now shifting toward upcoming US inflation releases for further guidance on the Fed’s policy path.
Bond Market Reaction
Analysts at TD Securities noted that Treasury yields moved lower and the yield curve steepened following the disappointing payroll figures, even as the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%. The weaker employment data helped alleviate concerns that the labor market was reaccelerating, leading investors to scale back expectations for future rate increases. As a result, pricing for September tightening was reduced by around 3 basis points.
Barkin Signals Balanced but Cautious Outlook
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin struck a somewhat more cautious tone, emphasizing that current labor market conditions reflect a “low-hire, low-fire” environment. His remarks suggest employment remains weak but stable rather than deteriorating sharply, reducing the urgency for further policy tightening.
At the same time, Barkin highlighted the resilience of corporate earnings, noting that company profits remain strong and continue to grow. This could limit the scope for a more dovish Fed stance if labor market softness does not spread more broadly across the economy.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index declined by 1.68 points to 137.01, indicating a moderation in perceived hawkishness. Nevertheless, the index remains well above the neutral 100 level, suggesting that overall Fed communication continues to lean toward maintaining a relatively restrictive monetary policy stance.
Bitcoin hovered above $65,000 on Monday, remaining slightly above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $64,702.
The Bank of Japan signaled that further interest rate hikes could be on the table, according to the summary of opinions from its July policy meeting.
Pump.fun and CurveDAO led the crypto market gains over the past 24 hours, emerging as the strongest performers among major digital assets.
Crypto Market Overview: Bitcoin Holds Firm as BoJ Signals Potential Tightening
The broader cryptocurrency market remained stable on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $65,000 and holding above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $64,702. Despite growing expectations of tighter monetary policy in Japan after the Bank of Japan’s latest policy discussion summary, market sentiment across digital assets stayed constructive. Among the strongest performers over the past 24 hours were Pump.fun (PUMP) and Curve DAO (CRV), both extending recent gains.
Bank of Japan Hints at Additional Rate Hikes
The Bank of Japan released the summary of opinions from its July policy meeting, revealing a more hawkish tone among policymakers. Four of the nine board members supported further rate increases, while three adopted a neutral stance and two remained dovish. The discussion comes as the Japanese Yen continues to trade near multi-decade lows against the US Dollar, increasing pressure on policymakers to normalize monetary policy more aggressively.
Bitcoin Technical Outlook
Bitcoin traded near $65,200 on Monday, maintaining support above its 50-day EMA at $64,702. However, the leading cryptocurrency remains below the 100-day EMA at $66,905 and the 200-day EMA at $72,686, suggesting that the broader trend has yet to fully turn bullish.
Technical indicators show improving momentum. The MACD has generated a bullish crossover above its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 55, indicating moderate buying strength.
If buyers remain in control, the next key resistance levels are the 100-day EMA at $66,905 and the 200-day EMA near $72,686. A sustained breakout above these barriers could strengthen the bullish outlook. On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $64,702 remains the first important support level, with a daily close below it potentially triggering a deeper pullback.
PUMP Extends Breakout Rally
Pump.fun (PUMP) continued its upward trajectory on Monday after gaining roughly 11% on Sunday. The token remains in a bullish structure after breaking out of a falling wedge formation and is currently trading close to a six-month high.
Momentum indicators continue to favor the bulls. The RSI has climbed to 72, entering overbought territory, while the MACD remains firmly positive with expanding bullish histogram bars.
Should the rally continue, the next upside target is the December 2025 peak at $0.003399. Key support lies near $0.00251, corresponding to the reclaimed high from May 9.
CRV Targets Higher Levels
Curve DAO (CRV) advanced for a third consecutive session, approaching the $0.24 mark. The token remains above both its 50-day EMA at $0.2135 and 100-day EMA at $0.2214, supporting the near-term bullish outlook. Nevertheless, the 200-day EMA at $0.2683 continues to act as a major resistance level and keeps the longer-term trend cautious.
CRV is also trading above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.2232, calculated from the decline between $0.2931 and $0.1700. Immediate resistance is located near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.2608, which aligns closely with the 200-day EMA. A breakout above this zone could open the door for a move toward $0.2931.
On the downside, the $0.2232 retracement level is reinforced by the 100-day EMA at $0.2214 and the 50-day EMA at $0.2135, creating a strong support area for the token.
Gold started the week on a weaker footing as escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Rising oil prices added to inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated, weighing on the non-yielding precious metal. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming U.S. inflation data for further clues on the Fed’s policy outlook and the next direction for gold prices.
Gold (XAU/USD) opened the new week on a weaker note, pulling back from its highest level since June 17 reached after Friday’s softer-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. The labor market data showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, while June payroll growth was revised down to 20,000 from 57,000. The figures pointed to a cooling labor market, reducing expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes and initially pressuring the U.S. dollar while supporting gold.
However, that boost proved temporary as renewed uncertainty surrounding the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz revived demand for the safe-haven dollar. Iran maintained that a full reopening of the strategic shipping route would require the end of U.S. naval restrictions, the removal of sanctions, and compensation for war-related losses. Tehran also rejected direct negotiations with Washington, arguing that the U.S. had breached the interim peace agreement reached in June. These developments have kept geopolitical risks elevated, helping the dollar recover and limiting gold’s upside.
At the same time, ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran have continued to support crude oil prices. Higher energy costs have raised concerns that inflation could reaccelerate, potentially prompting major central banks to maintain a more hawkish policy stance. Market pricing reflected by CME FedWatch data still suggests investors see a meaningful possibility of another Fed rate increase before year-end. Expectations of higher borrowing costs and elevated U.S. Treasury yields have strengthened the dollar and created additional headwinds for gold. Investors are now awaiting this week’s U.S. inflation reports for fresh signals on the Fed’s next policy move and the direction of bullion prices.
Technical Analysis
Gold’s breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-to-June decline on Friday remains a positive signal for bulls. This key support area is located just above the $4,300 level, making it an important zone to watch. A sustained move below this threshold could trigger additional selling pressure and expose the precious metal to deeper losses.
Despite the recent rebound, caution is still warranted. XAU/USD continues to trade beneath both the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the closely watched 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating that the broader bearish structure has not been fully reversed. As a result, while momentum has improved in the near term, confirmation of a stronger upward trend may require a decisive break above these key technical barriers.
Yen struggles to hold intervention gains as dollar hovers near six-week lows
Currency markets traded cautiously on Thursday, with the Japanese yen giving up part of its recent intervention-driven rally and the U.S. dollar remaining close to a six-week low. Investor sentiment was restrained by uncertainty surrounding a proposed U.S.-Iran agreement and anticipation ahead of key U.S. payrolls data.
The yen was little changed at 157.71 per dollar in early trading after posting losses in the previous two sessions. Although it has retreated from Monday’s peak of 155.20, reached following suspected intervention, the currency remains well above last month’s multi-decade low near 164 per dollar.
Elsewhere, major currencies showed limited movement. The euro held steady at $1.1557, while sterling traded flat at $1.3469. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were also largely unchanged at $0.7056 and $0.5885, respectively.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was steady at 99.65, lingering near its weakest level in six weeks as traders awaited fresh catalysts.
Market participants continued to monitor developments in the Middle East after reports emerged of a proposed agreement involving Iran and Oman aimed at resolving the U.S.-Iran conflict. According to Reuters, the proposal could grant Tehran authority over inbound shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Washington has yet to comment officially on the reported plan. While President Donald Trump recently suggested an agreement to reopen the strategic waterway was close, U.S. officials have consistently maintained that they would not support any arrangement giving Iran control over access to the critical energy shipping route.
Oil markets reacted modestly, with Brent crude futures slipping 0.5% to $79.08 per barrel, hovering near levels seen following the interim peace accord between the United States and Iran in June.
Markets adopt wait-and-see approach as central banks and payrolls take center stage
Investors remained cautious, with markets largely in a holding pattern as traders assessed geopolitical developments and awaited fresh economic signals. According to Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank, the recent calm in oil markets has removed one of the key drivers that had been influencing asset prices in recent weeks.
Attrill noted that market participants are closely watching whether a U.S.-Iran agreement materializes, with uncertainty over the outcome keeping trading activity subdued.
BOJ minutes strengthen case for further tightening
Attention also turned to Japan after minutes from the Bank of Japan’s June policy meeting revealed policymakers discussed rising inflation risks that could warrant additional interest-rate increases, even as they lifted borrowing costs to their highest level in 31 years.
The discussion underscores growing concern within the BOJ about broader price pressures and reinforces expectations that another rate hike could come as early as September.
Although the yen surged as much as 5% against the dollar following intervention efforts by Tokyo and coordinated measures with Washington, the currency has struggled to maintain those gains.
A recent Reuters survey highlighted skepticism over the effectiveness of intervention alone, with nearly 95% of respondents saying currency market operations would not provide a lasting solution to yen weakness. Most respondents argued that further BOJ rate hikes would be necessary to support the currency over the longer term.
U.S. payrolls report expected to shape Fed outlook
Investors are now focused on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.
Recent data showed the U.S. services sector remained resilient in July despite rising input costs, though employment growth within the sector slowed. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the upcoming report to show payrolls increased by 80,000 jobs in July, following a gain of 57,000 in June, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.
Adding to market uncertainty, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook indicated on Wednesday that she remains open to the possibility of additional rate hikes if inflation proves persistently elevated, signaling that policymakers are not yet ruling out further tightening despite signs of moderating labor-market momentum.
Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement has weighed on oil prices, helping ease concerns about inflation.
US equities have climbed to fresh record highs, but the still-weak correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has limited Bitcoin’s upside momentum.
Continued net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are providing additional support for the cryptocurrency.
Technical outlook: Bitcoin maintains a constructive bias while holding above key support levels, with traders watching for a breakout that could trigger the next leg higher.
Bitcoin remains comfortably above the $64,000 mark, supported by growing optimism over potential U.S.-Iran peace talks and renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Despite these tailwinds, BTC has gained only about 0.7% over the past 24 hours, lagging the broader rally in risk assets.
Market sentiment improved as hopes increased that the U.S. and Iran could reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have fallen for a third consecutive session and are down roughly 10% this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that an agreement to restore shipping through the strategic waterway could be reached within days.
The decline in oil prices has helped ease inflation concerns, pushing Treasury yields lower. If the trend persists, investors may further reduce expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
Markets are currently assigning a 59% probability to a Fed rate hike in September, down from 65% a day earlier. The shift in rate expectations has also weighed on the U.S. dollar, creating a more favorable backdrop for Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.
Meanwhile, optimism surrounding a potential Middle East agreement and renewed enthusiasm for AI-related investments have driven U.S. equities to fresh highs, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones reaching record levels.
Bitcoin, however, has not mirrored the strength seen in stocks. A relatively weak 30-day correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 helps explain the divergence, suggesting that broader risk-on sentiment alone may not be enough to fuel a major breakout. Instead, Bitcoin may require a crypto-specific catalyst to generate stronger upside momentum.
Institutional Demand Continues to Support Bitcoin
Institutional interest in Bitcoin is showing encouraging signs. Data from SoSoValue revealed that spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $211.5 million in net inflows on Tuesday, following another strong session that saw $170.1 million in net inflows the day before.
If ETF demand remains robust and Bitcoin begins to strengthen its positive correlation with equity markets, these flows could provide additional support for higher prices. On the other hand, if institutional participation fails to accelerate meaningfully, BTC may continue to underperform despite the broader rally across risk assets.
Looking ahead, market focus is shifting toward upcoming U.S. economic data. Investors will closely monitor the ISM Services PMI release, followed by Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, both of which could offer important clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates and influence Bitcoin’s near-term direction.
Bitcoin has pushed back above the $64,000 level, but the broader technical picture remains slightly bearish. The price continues to trade below the 50-day EMA near $64,600, as well as the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating that the recent advance may still be a corrective rebound within a larger downtrend. Meanwhile, the RSI remains near neutral territory, highlighting a lack of strong bullish or bearish momentum.
On the downside, failure to regain the 50-day EMA could trigger a retest of support around $62,500, which marks both the weekly low and the mid-July trough. A move below this level would bring the psychologically important $60,000 threshold into focus, followed by the 2026 low near $57,700. A break beneath $57,700 would confirm a lower low, increasing the risk of a deeper decline toward $55,000 and potentially $50,000, levels not seen since 2024.
For the bullish outlook to strengthen, Bitcoin must first reclaim the 50-day EMA at $64,600 and then break above the July peak near $67,000. Such a move would establish a higher high and could pave the way for a test of the 200-day EMA, currently located around $72,500.
WTI crude has experienced a significant pullback, sliding from above $92 a barrel in late July to below $76. Despite the sharp retreat, the futures curve has yet to signal a complete bearish reversal, as strong backwardation persists, indicating that supply-related risks are still being priced into the market.
At the same time, US market fundamentals remain uneven rather than outright weak. Conflicting trends in demand and inventory data continue to paint a mixed picture, limiting conviction behind a sustained bearish outlook.
For now, the most probable outcome is continued volatility within a $77–$88 trading range. A lasting improvement in shipping conditions and smoother supply flows could drag WTI toward the $68–$75 zone. On the other hand, fresh disruptions to global energy transport routes or supply chains could revive bullish sentiment and drive prices back toward the $92–$105 range.
American benchmark crude prices have dropped sharply as renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement reduced geopolitical risk premiums. However, a strongly backwardated futures curve, tight inventories at Cushing, and subdued speculative positioning suggest the recent sell-off may be overextended.
WTI has weakened after Washington paused additional military action and discussions on shipping security resumed. Even so, both physical and derivatives markets continue to signal supply tightness, leaving the market exposed to another sharp rebound.
WTI’s decline looks more like a correction than a full normalization
WTI fell below $76 per barrel on Tuesday, marking a nearly 20% decline from its late-July peak above $92. The move followed repeated swings in sentiment driven by reports of progress and setbacks in negotiations involving the US and Iran.
While the retreat reflects a reduction in geopolitical risk premiums, it does not necessarily indicate that the underlying supply disruptions have been resolved. Markets have repeatedly priced in expectations of a settlement, only to see tensions, attacks, or shipping restrictions re-emerge.
Until tanker movements, insurance availability, and export flows improve consistently over an extended period, political statements alone are unlikely to confirm a lasting normalization.
The futures curve suggests caution toward the sell-off
The WTI futures curve remained deeply backwardated in late July. The front-month contract traded at $85.27, compared with $82.25 for the second-month contract and $70.41 for the twelfth-month contract. This left the M1–M2 spread at $3.02 per barrel and the M1–M12 spread close to $15.
Such pronounced backwardation indicates that buyers continue to pay a significant premium for immediate supply relative to oil delivered further into the future. Although part of that premium reflects geopolitical uncertainty, the curve’s shape does not align with expectations of an imminent supply surplus. It also provides positive roll yield for long positions, which could help prevent bearish momentum from becoming entrenched.
As a result, the curve points to a two-track outlook: near-term prices remain highly sensitive to developments in US-Iran relations, while longer-dated contracts are already pricing in a gradual return to more normal market conditions.
EIA data suggest limited inventory cushions rather than a true supply shortage
According to the latest EIA report, US commercial crude inventories increased by 2 million barrels to 411.7 million barrels in the week ending July 17. Despite the build, stockpiles remained about 6% below the five-year seasonal average. Meanwhile, inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined by 674,000 barrels to 19.4 million barrels, leaving them more than 10 million barrels below the five-year norm.
Refined product inventories also remained relatively tight. Gasoline stocks were 7% below their five-year average, while distillate inventories were 10% below average, even after registering weekly increases. Refinery utilization stayed elevated at 96.1%, and total petroleum demand rebounded by just over 1 million barrels per day from the previous week.
The data do not present a uniformly bullish picture, as crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all posted gains during the reporting period. However, inventory buffers remain thin in absolute terms, particularly at Cushing. As a result, any renewed supply disruption could have a more immediate impact on prompt crude prices than it would in a market with more comfortable stock levels.
US shale production is responding slowly, not flooding the market
US crude output fell by 63,000 barrels per day to 13.798 million barrels per day in the week ending July 17. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes reported 450 active oil rigs on July 24, down two from the previous week but still up ten from a month earlier and 38 above the same period in 2025.
The signal from shale activity remains mixed. Drilling has not deteriorated significantly, yet the latest decline in production does not point to an imminent surge in supply capable of offsetting a renewed disruption in Gulf energy flows. Moreover, changes in rig activity typically influence production with a considerable lag, making rig counts more relevant to the medium-term outlook than to short-term supply risks.
CFTC positioning indicates potential for another sharp market move
Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that non-commercial net long positions in WTI increased by nearly 38,500 contracts to roughly 120,100 contracts in the week ending July 28. The recovery was driven largely by short covering, with speculative short positions falling by about 33,600 contracts, while long positions increased by only around 4,800 contracts.
Despite the rebound, speculative positioning remains relatively light by historical standards. Net long exposure sits near the 11th percentile of the past three years, while overall speculative exposure, at roughly 6.5%, is around the 13th percentile. In other words, traders are no longer heavily positioned for a major collapse in prices, but bullish positioning is far from crowded.
This leaves room for significant volatility in either direction. A credible and lasting peace agreement could spark another wave of selling, while a renewed breakdown in negotiations could trigger both fresh short covering and new long buying, potentially accelerating any upside move in WTI prices.
WTI outlook: $77–$88 remains the most plausible near-term trading range
Current market conditions support a range-bound outlook rather than a firm directional target. Geopolitical developments continue to dominate short-term price action, with headlines surrounding US-Iran negotiations capable of moving front-month WTI contracts by several dollars before changes in inventories or production data have a meaningful impact.
At the same time, the structure of the futures curve argues against interpreting every positive diplomatic development as evidence of a lasting supply surplus. Deep backwardation continues to signal tight near-term market conditions and ongoing concerns about physical availability.
As a result, the most credible base-case scenario remains a trading range between $77 and $88 per barrel. A sustained improvement in shipping security, export flows, and regional stability could eventually push prices lower toward the $68–$75 area. However, until such normalization is clearly reflected in physical market indicators, downside potential may remain limited.
Conversely, any renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions, or supply-chain interruptions could quickly revive the risk premium, potentially triggering a sharp rebound in WTI as traders reprice near-term supply risks. The combination of tight inventories, pronounced backwardation, and relatively light speculative positioning means the market remains vulnerable to significant upside volatility despite the recent correction.
Bottom line
WTI prices around $80 per barrel no longer reflect the extreme risk premium that dominated the market during the most recent geopolitical escalation. However, market conditions are still far from fully normalized. Deep backwardation in the futures curve, low inventory levels at Cushing, and relatively light speculative positioning all indicate that downside moves driven by positive peace developments may be more gradual than any upside reaction triggered by renewed supply disruptions.
For the time being, the most likely scenario remains a volatile trading range between $77 and $88 per barrel. A sustained move below that band would likely require clear and verifiable evidence that Gulf shipping routes, insurance conditions, and export flows have returned to normal. Conversely, a breakout above the range would become increasingly probable if negotiations break down and physical supply conditions deteriorate once again.
In short, while geopolitical risk premiums have eased, the underlying market structure continues to reflect supply tightness, leaving WTI vulnerable to sharp upward repricing should disruptions re-emerge.
Second-quarter earnings season continues to deliver strong results, with 71% of S&P 500 companies having reported so far. Revenues are exceeding analyst expectations by 3.8% on average, while earnings are outperforming forecasts by 7.3%. Revenue beats have been recorded by 77% of companies, while 83% have surpassed earnings estimates. Notably, this marks the twelfth consecutive quarter in which earnings growth has outpaced revenue growth, highlighting ongoing profit margin expansion.
The outlook for August appears increasingly constructive. A combination of exhausted mean-reversion trading strategies, the collapse of the Situational Awareness hedge fund, and aggressive short-selling activity that fueled negative market narratives has left the market deeply oversold and potentially primed for a strong rebound. Adding to the bullish case, FactSet projects S&P 500 second-quarter earnings growth of 47.4%.
Looking ahead, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model currently estimates third-quarter annualized GDP growth at 5.9%, exceeding the 5% pace forecast earlier this year. However, investors should note that the Atlanta Fed’s estimates often begin at elevated levels before being revised lower as additional economic data becomes available. Second-quarter GDP growth faced pressure from heavy technology imports from Asia, a trend likely to persist as AI-related demand continues to accelerate.
Economic activity also appears to be gaining momentum. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing index climbed to 55.6% in July from 53.3% in June, marking the seventh consecutive monthly increase and the strongest reading since May 2022. New orders improved to 56.7%, production jumped sharply to 58.5%, and order backlogs rose to 55%. Broad-based strength was evident, with 15 of the 16 manufacturing industries surveyed reporting expansion during the month.
On the labor front, ADP reported that private-sector employers added just 44,000 jobs in July, falling short of the 65,000 jobs economists had expected. The weakest areas included leisure and hospitality, which shed 11,000 jobs, and trade, transportation, and utilities, which lost 8,000 positions. While seasonal factors may have weighed on the report, the softer-than-expected data has prompted economists to lower expectations for the upcoming nonfarm payrolls release.
Gold prices extended gains for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, reaching a seven-week high as growing optimism over a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz pressured oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and Treasury yields.
At 22:20 ET (02:20 GMT), XAU/USD climbed 1.1% to $4,293.94 per ounce after hitting an intraday peak of $4,304.15, while Gold Futures advanced 1.1% to $4,353.12. Silver (XAG/USD) rose 0.5% to $62.39, and Platinum (XPT/USD) gained 2.3% to $1,774.68.
Hormuz deal hopes lift gold as Fed tightening expectations soften
Gold attracted fresh buying interest after reports indicated that a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East may be approaching, fueling hopes that disruptions to global energy supplies could ease and helping to alleviate inflation concerns.
According to Reuters, a proposed arrangement involving Iran and Oman aimed at ending the five-month standoff between Tehran and Washington would grant Iran oversight of vessels entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of such a deal weighed on oil prices.
The decline in energy prices has led investors to scale back expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate increases. Markets currently assign about a 55% chance of a September rate hike, down from 67% just two days earlier.
Meanwhile, benchmark U.S. Treasury yields edged lower and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained under pressure, improving the appeal of dollar-denominated gold for international investors and providing further support for bullion prices.
Payrolls report in focus as next key market driver
Despite gold’s recent advance, investors are closely watching upcoming U.S. labor market data for fresh signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.
The latest ADP National Employment Report showed that private-sector job growth slowed in July, shifting market attention to Friday’s highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for a clearer assessment of labor market strength.
Analysts at ANZ noted that gold’s rally gained traction as expectations for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz helped ease inflation concerns, reducing the likelihood of further Fed tightening.
They also highlighted that bullion’s gains accelerated after prices broke above an important technical resistance level. However, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook reiterated that policymakers remain prepared to raise interest rates if inflation does not continue to moderate, emphasizing that the Fed cannot afford to wait until inflation fully returns to its 2% target before taking action if necessary.
Silver advanced as lower oil prices followed a partial agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, helping to ease inflationary pressures. Softer-than-expected US ADP private employment data further boosted precious metals, reinforcing expectations of a more accommodative interest-rate outlook. Meanwhile, a positive 14-day RSI and a supportive Fed Sentiment Index continued to indicate solid and sustained bullish momentum for silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) extended its rally for a fourth straight session, trading near $62.20 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session. The precious metal continued to benefit from improving market sentiment after an agreement to partially restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz helped drive oil prices lower, easing concerns about inflationary pressures and the future path of interest rates.
The development follows a deal between Iran and Oman to establish a temporary maritime corridor through the key energy route, raising expectations for stronger Middle Eastern oil exports. A joint statement outlining the arrangement is reportedly nearing completion. Although the shipping channel is expected to remain operational for two to four months, Iranian officials emphasized that the measure should not be viewed as a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil market structure points to speculation-driven moves
Analysts at TD Securities argue that recent swings in oil prices appear to be driven more by speculative positioning than by any meaningful change in supply-demand fundamentals. They note that oil timespreads have remained relatively strong, indicating that traders reacting to headlines are largely behind the recent volatility rather than a loosening of physical market conditions. According to the firm, robust timespreads continue to signal a fundamentally tight crude market despite heightened geopolitical risks and speculative trading activity.
At the same time, weaker US labor market data added another layer of support for precious metals. ADP data released Wednesday showed private-sector employment increased by only 44,000 jobs in July, down sharply from 98,000 in June and below expectations of 70,000. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming US labor indicators, including Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, for further clues on the economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy direction.
Fed’s Cook highlights inflation risks while leaving door open for future rate hikes
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered remarks that carried a moderately hawkish tone, earning a score of 7.2/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, slightly above the historical average of 6.5/10. Her comments acknowledged the resilience of the US economy and labor market but emphasized that inflation risks remain a greater concern than employment weakness. Cook reiterated the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability while stressing that additional rate hikes would only be considered if progress on disinflation stalls.
The speech was generally supportive of the US Dollar and reflected a cautious stance toward risk-sensitive assets. However, it stopped short of signaling any immediate tightening measures, leaving policymakers data-dependent.
Meanwhile, the FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped 1.93 points to 140.92, suggesting a modest reduction in perceived hawkishness after the speech. Even so, the index remains comfortably above the neutral 100 level, indicating that overall Fed communication continues to lean firmly toward a restrictive policy stance despite the slight easing in tightening expectations.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $62.20 and continues to display a constructive near-term outlook. The metal remains above its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $59.76, reflecting ongoing bullish momentum, although the 50-day EMA at $62.69 continues to act as immediate resistance. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56.81, reinforcing the view that buying pressure remains intact without entering overbought territory.
A decisive daily close above the 50-day EMA at $62.69 could strengthen bullish momentum and pave the way for a move toward the next major resistance zones at $90.03 and $96.62, although those targets remain considerably higher than current market levels. On the downside, initial support is located at the nine-day EMA of $59.76, followed by a stronger support area around $55.63. Overall, the technical backdrop remains tilted to the upside as long as Silver holds above its short-term moving average.
Bitcoin traded sideways even as equities pushed to fresh record highs, underscoring its lack of correlation with the broader rally across global markets.
Despite stocks climbing to new highs, Bitcoin remained largely range-bound, highlighting its divergence from the strength seen in traditional financial markets.
Bitcoin showed little movement while global equities extended their gains, reflecting a continued disconnect from wider market optimism.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded in a narrow range as equities continued to climb and gold pulled back, indicating a market caught between fading institutional participation and mounting signs that selling pressure may be running out, according to a Glassnode report released Wednesday.
The report noted that Bitcoin’s muted price action contrasted sharply with the broader financial landscape, where major stock indexes pushed to fresh record highs while other asset classes remained active.
“Virtually every major asset has moved—except Bitcoin,” Glassnode observed, highlighting the cryptocurrency’s growing disconnect from the momentum driving global markets.
Bitcoin Shrugs Off Coldcard Wallet Theft
The report analyzed how the market reacted to the compromise of several self-custodied Coldcard hardware wallets. Although the incident sparked a surge in on-chain activity, it had virtually no effect on Bitcoin’s price.
In the three days following the theft, the volume of Bitcoin that had been inactive for at least a year surged to roughly 119,000 BTC—about 200 times the amount stolen—as users transferred funds to new wallets as a precautionary measure.
Despite the heightened activity, only around 10% of those coins were sent to exchanges, while the pace of new wallet creation normalized within days. Meanwhile, the amount of Bitcoin held in wallets less than one month old continued to increase, suggesting investors were relocating assets into new cold-storage addresses rather than preparing to sell.
According to Glassnode, the largest forced movement of long-dormant Bitcoin during the current market cycle generated virtually no selling pressure and failed to trigger any meaningful price reaction.
Bitcoin Shows Bottoming Signals but Demand Remains Weak
The report also highlighted that Bitcoin is beginning to exhibit traits commonly associated with market bottoms, though the current setup differs from previous cycles. Instead of being driven by panic selling, the signals are emerging from an extended period of market stagnation.
Historically, major bottoms have been accompanied by steep declines and sharp spikes in volatility. In contrast, the current cycle has seen profitability gradually erode during months of sideways price action, while volatility has remained exceptionally subdued.
Glassnode noted that its Seller Exhaustion Constant has dropped to the lowest level of the current cycle, entering a zone that has historically coincided with market bottoms. However, the metric remains roughly one-third above the levels recorded during prior bear-market troughs, suggesting that while seller fatigue is increasing, conditions have not yet fully matched those seen at previous cycle lows.
Institutional Demand Still Missing as a Key Catalyst
Glassnode also pointed to persistent weakness in institutional participation, noting that major sources of demand have provided little support for Bitcoin in recent months. According to the report, US spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buyers have not generated enough buying pressure to sustain the market’s recovery.
June saw approximately 65,800 BTC in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs—the largest monthly withdrawal on record—while purchases by corporate treasuries failed to fully offset those redemptions.
As Glassnode noted, any eventual market bottom may need to develop without the steady institutional buying that underpinned Bitcoin’s performance over the past two years, at least until that demand returns.
Despite the lack of strong buying interest, options markets remain remarkably subdued. Implied volatility for bullish price moves has fallen to an all-time low, while downside volatility remains near typical levels, suggesting traders are assigning relatively low probabilities to both significant rallies and sharp declines.
Historically, periods of extremely compressed volatility have often preceded major breakouts. However, Glassnode cautioned that the current market environment lacks the robust demand backdrop that supported previous recoveries, making a sustained rebound less certain.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $64,900, up roughly 1% over the previous 24 hours.
The Japanese Yen retreats against the US Dollar as traders question the sustainability of the currency’s recent rally.
The Yen’s earlier gains were largely supported by coordinated intervention from Japanese and US authorities.
Market participants are now turning their attention to the US ADP Employment Change report and July’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) surrenders its earlier gains and trades little changed near 157.70 against the US Dollar (USD) during Wednesday’s European session. The USD/JPY pair rebounds as confidence in the Yen’s recent rally begins to fade, prompting investors to question whether the currency can sustain its strength.
The Yen had outperformed in recent sessions after coordinated intervention by the United States (US) and Japan aimed at curbing what Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) described as “excessive volatility and disorderly movements” in the currency market.
However, many analysts argue that the Yen’s recovery is likely to be temporary unless it is supported by stronger underlying economic fundamentals.
Analysts say intervention offers only temporary relief
Strategists at MUFG believe official intervention will remain relatively limited in scale, noting that while coordinated action between the US and Japan could provide near-term support for the Yen, it is unlikely to reverse the broader weakening trend on its own. They argue that lasting appreciation will require a meaningful shift in economic fundamentals, rather than relying solely on market intervention.
TD Securities shares a similar assessment, describing the latest intervention as an effort by Japanese authorities to buy time while fiscal policies work to boost demand for Yen-denominated assets. The firm suggests the strategy also depends on a weaker US Dollar, potentially driven by softer US economic data or another bearish catalyst. However, TD warns that unless the Bank of Japan (BoJ) accelerates its tightening cycle with a series of rate hikes toward 2%, the longer-term outlook still favors a renewed rise in USD/JPY. The brokerage highlights the wide interest rate gap, with Japan’s one-year, one-year overnight index swap (OIS) rate near 1.9% compared with 4.1% in the US.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar edges slightly lower as traders await the release of the US ADP Employment Change report for July at 12:15 GMT.
Economists at Deutsche Bank forecast private-sector payrolls to increase by 65,000, improving from June’s reading of 49,000.
The ADP report is expected to influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path ahead of Friday’s closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for July, which could provide fresh guidance on the outlook for interest rates.
Dow Jones futures edged higher after reports of a temporary US-Iran agreement fueled optimism across financial markets. US stocks ended Tuesday in positive territory, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.71% and the Nasdaq 100 surging 2.59%. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming earnings reports from Eli Lilly, AppLovin, Walt Disney, Uber, and SanDisk.
US stock futures traded modestly higher during Wednesday’s European session, with Dow Jones futures rising 0.23% to around 54,390. S&P 500 futures added 0.34% to roughly 7,790, while Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 0.14% to near 29,900. Investors are now focused on another busy day of corporate earnings, with major reports expected from Walt Disney, Uber, and SanDisk, which may influence market direction.
Investor sentiment improved after reports suggested progress toward an interim agreement involving the United States, Iran, and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Axios reported that US officials are targeting an announcement as early as Wednesday, with the proposed 60-day arrangement designed to restore navigation through the strategic waterway, which carries nearly one-fifth of global energy shipments. The temporary framework could be extended if negotiations continue to advance.
The upbeat geopolitical developments followed a strong rally on Wall Street in the previous session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 gained 1.71% and 1.79%, respectively, both finishing at fresh record highs. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 2.59% advance, supported by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and optimism that a Hormuz agreement is close.
Meanwhile, AI-related stocks continued their recovery, led by semiconductor companies. Deutsche Bank noted that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed 6.55% on Tuesday—its strongest daily performance since March—bringing its cumulative gain since last Wednesday to 16.58%, marking the index’s largest four-day rally since 2020. The bank said the sharp rebound in chip stocks signals renewed strength in the AI sector after its recent pullback.
Gold (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day’s momentum, extending its rally for a second consecutive session to reach a near two-week high around $4,141 during Wednesday’s Asian trading.
Fundamental Analysis
Optimism over a diplomatic breakthrough in the five-month US-Iran conflict continues to support market sentiment, despite lingering uncertainty. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington could finalize an agreement with Tehran as early as Wednesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease tensions. Separately, Axios reported, citing sources, that the US, Iran, and Oman are close to reaching an interim deal to restore access to the key shipping route. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s decision to raise oil production starting in September has eased supply concerns, sending crude prices to their lowest level since June 13. Softer oil prices have reduced inflation fears and weakened expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, weighing on the US Dollar while boosting demand for non-yielding Gold.
Even so, markets continue to expect the Fed could still raise interest rates before year-end as the US labor market shows signs of resilience. Tuesday’s JOLTS report revealed job openings slipped slightly to 7.36 million but remained above year-ago levels, indicating underlying labor market strength. Additionally, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson reiterated support for keeping monetary policy restrictive to contain inflation. Their comments may limit further downside in the US Dollar ahead of Friday’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Before then, investors will focus on Wednesday’s US economic releases, including the ADP private employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for fresh clues on the economy and the Fed’s policy path. At the same time, any new developments surrounding the Middle East conflict could influence both the US Dollar and Gold. Overall, the current fundamental backdrop continues to favor Gold, leaving XAU/USD well-positioned for additional near-term gains.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, Gold’s decisive move above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart reinforces the bullish outlook. Momentum indicators continue to favor buyers, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding near 65, reflecting solid upside momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in positive territory, suggesting bullish control remains intact in the near term.
That said, the rally may begin to encounter resistance above the $4,130 region, as increasingly stretched momentum indicators could limit further upside if buying pressure starts to ease. On the downside, initial support is located around the 200-period EMA near $4,115. A sustained break below this level could trigger a deeper pullback toward the daily low around $4,065, followed by the $4,043–$4,042 support zone, the $4,020 level, and ultimately the key psychological threshold at $4,000.
Crypto Regulation Could Enter a New Era as the CLARITY Act Faces a Crucial Senate Decision
The rules governing the crypto industry could be rewritten within days. The CLARITY Act, a more than 600-page bill designed to define which US regulators oversee different types of digital assets, is approaching a critical Senate deadline on August 7. As investors wait for clarity, Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow range amid uncertainty. Here’s a straightforward breakdown of what the legislation proposes and what it could mean for crypto holders.
The CLARITY Act represents one of the most ambitious crypto market-structure proposals in US history and is now approaching a decisive stage.
The Senate is expected to remain in session only through August 7, yet no official floor vote had been scheduled as of August 3. This leaves lawmakers with only a limited window to determine the bill’s future. The House passed its version in July 2025 with bipartisan backing, while a consolidated Senate draft was introduced in late July.
However, the path to approval remains challenging. The bill needs 60 votes to overcome a potential filibuster, while Republicans control approximately 53 Senate seats, making support from Democratic lawmakers critical.
Current prediction markets estimate only about a 26% probability that the legislation becomes law in 2026. If the Senate window closes without action, the next meaningful opportunity may not arrive until after the midterm elections, potentially extending regulatory uncertainty for the crypto market for another year or longer.
What the CLARITY Act Actually Changes
At its heart, the CLARITY Act attempts to answer the biggest unresolved question in crypto for the past decade: which regulator is responsible for overseeing which digital assets?
For years, the SEC has argued that most tokens should be treated as unregistered securities, while the CFTC has maintained that many cryptocurrencies function more like commodities but lacked the authority to regulate spot markets. This uncertainty left crypto projects unsure about compliance requirements, exchanges unclear about which assets they could list, and investors uncertain about regulatory protections.
The bill aims to resolve this confusion through several key provisions:
Clear division of authority between the SEC and CFTC
The legislation creates a defined framework for determining regulatory responsibility. If a token’s value relies heavily on the efforts of a central organization or development team, it would be classified as a security under SEC oversight. If a blockchain network becomes sufficiently decentralized, the asset could be designated as a “digital commodity” regulated by the CFTC, which would receive expanded authority over spot crypto markets.
A “maturity” pathway for tokens
The bill introduces a framework allowing tokens to transition from securities into digital commodities as networks become more decentralized. Initially, tokens are treated as securities while founders maintain significant control. Once governance becomes distributed — such as no single entity controlling a disproportionate share of tokens or decision-making power — the asset can potentially “graduate” into a digital commodity.
This creates a clearer compliance roadmap: centralized projects fall under SEC rules, while decentralized networks move toward CFTC oversight.
Crypto exchanges face stricter regulatory standards
Digital commodity trading platforms would be required to register with the CFTC and follow standards similar to traditional financial institutions, including capital requirements, risk management procedures, and market monitoring systems.
In exchange, compliant platforms would gain greater legal certainty and the ability to serve US customers without constant concern over sudden regulatory action.
Greater protection for customer assets
The bill addresses one of the biggest lessons from previous crypto exchange failures: customer funds being misused by platforms.
Under the proposed rules, customer assets must be held by qualified custodians. Platforms would need explicit user approval before using assets for activities such as staking. If an exchange becomes insolvent, properly custodied customer assets would remain the property of users rather than becoming part of the company’s bankruptcy estate.
Token fundraising gets clearer rules — with more transparency
Crypto projects would receive a more straightforward path to raising capital, but they would also face stronger disclosure obligations.
Instead of relying only on marketing materials or investor presentations, projects would need to provide ongoing information about:
Token utility and functionality
Team token ownership
Insider selling activity
Potential software and security risks
Token economics and distribution structure
Protection for self-custody and blockchain developers
The legislation protects individuals’ ability to hold digital assets in personal wallets. It also clarifies that simply developing open-source blockchain software or operating a node does not automatically make someone a regulated financial intermediary.
This removes a major area of uncertainty that has affected developers for years.
DeFi regulation focuses on actual control, not labels
The bill evaluates decentralized finance projects based on one key question: who controls the system?
Protocols powered by immutable, open-source code with no centralized control would receive greater legal protection. However, projects claiming to be decentralized while retaining administrative control — such as the ability to freeze funds or modify rules — could still be treated as centralized financial platforms and face full compliance requirements.
Stronger anti-money-laundering and consumer protections
The legislation also expands safeguards against illicit finance. The updated version includes more than 16 provisions covering areas such as:
Anti-money-laundering requirements
Know-your-customer (KYC) procedures
Transaction monitoring
Restrictions on stablecoin platforms paying fixed deposit-like returns
However, legitimate yield mechanisms linked to real economic activity, such as staking rewards, would remain permitted.
What the CLARITY Act Could Mean for the Crypto Market
Bitcoin appears to be one of the clearest beneficiaries of the proposed framework. Since it operates without a central controlling entity, it naturally fits the definition of a digital commodity. In addition, stronger asset-segregation requirements could lower counterparty risks for investors who hold crypto through centralized platforms.
Large blockchain networks with widespread adoption and decentralized governance, including Ethereum and Solana, are also positioned favorably. Their potential classification as digital commodities could remove regulatory uncertainty and make them more attractive to institutional investors that have previously stayed on the sidelines.
However, newer blockchain projects with concentrated ownership structures may face a longer path. Until they achieve greater decentralization, they would likely remain under SEC oversight, increasing compliance costs and creating additional challenges for exchange listings.
Altcoins face a market-wide selection process
Smaller cryptocurrency projects could experience a significant divide. Projects that embrace transparency and meet disclosure requirements may gain a clearer route into US markets, while tokens with limited transparency, centralized control, or concentrated ownership could struggle to secure listings on major exchanges.
The result is likely to be a more selective market rather than a broad benefit for all cryptocurrencies.
Stablecoins move closer to regulated financial products
Stablecoins would increasingly resemble regulated payment infrastructure under the proposed rules. Key requirements could include:
Full reserve backing
Regular financial attestations
Clear redemption rights for users
Restrictions on passive yield programs may force platforms to redesign stablecoin offerings. However, returns generated through genuine economic activities — such as staking or liquidity provision — would likely remain allowed.
Exchanges and brokers face higher compliance demands
Crypto trading platforms would experience some of the biggest operational changes. They would need to meet requirements related to:
Regulatory registration
Customer asset segregation
Market surveillance systems
Risk management procedures
While implementation could increase costs, exchanges would gain something the industry has long sought: a clearer legal framework and the ability to operate with greater certainty.
Potential Winners Under the CLARITY Act
The market is already reacting to the possibility of regulatory change. Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range around $62,000–$64,000 as investors await the Senate’s decision. A clear outcome — either approval or failure — could become a catalyst for the next major market direction.
However, the broader significance extends beyond a single legislative vote. Current crypto regulations rely heavily on agency interpretations and enforcement approaches, which can change under different administrations. A federal law would provide a more permanent foundation.
The key developments to monitor are a potential Senate vote schedule or a cloture motion before August 7. Regardless of the immediate outcome, the regulatory framework outlined in the CLARITY Act could become the blueprint that shapes how the crypto market evolves going forward.
Wall Street started the new month on a strong note as improving geopolitical conditions and a steep decline in crude oil prices boosted investor sentiment. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, closing near its all-time high, while the Nasdaq advanced 2.1%, driven by strength in major technology stocks. Semiconductor stocks also recovered, with the PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) Index rising slightly above 1% after recent volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell, signaling reduced demand for protection against market declines as investors shifted toward risk assets. Lower Treasury yields further supported the rally, easing inflation concerns and providing additional support for growth-oriented companies.
Technology and communication services led market gains, with the “Magnificent Seven” once again driving momentum. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) surged back above a $3 trillion market capitalization, while Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) gained as optimism surrounding artificial intelligence returned. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) climbed nearly 3%, helping stabilize the semiconductor sector ahead of upcoming earnings from AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) and other chipmakers. Beyond technology, airlines and fuel-dependent industries benefited from cheaper oil, while energy stocks weakened as crude prices dropped sharply. Overall, the market rally reflected renewed confidence rather than excessive optimism, with investors remaining focused on corporate earnings, inflation trends, and future Federal Reserve policy decisions.
The projected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued its upward trend in July, marking another month of improved expectations. However, the long-term outlook remains below the index’s actual performance over the past decade, although the difference has gradually narrowed.
GMI is a market-capitalization-weighted portfolio that combines major asset classes (excluding cash) through ETF-based proxies. The current projection is calculated as the average of three underlying valuation models.
The latest forecast estimates an annualized return of 8.0%, slightly higher than last month’s projection. Despite the recent improvement, the expected return remains below the benchmark’s trailing 10-year annualized performance, which has been around 9.6%, though the gap has continued to shrink.
Similar to recent updates, many components within GMI are still expected to deliver lower returns than their historical results over the previous decade. The largest gap remains in U.S. equities, where models suggest future performance may moderate compared with the strong returns seen historically, while still remaining positive.
Overall, GMI’s long-term return outlook has improved but remains more conservative than its recent history, with projected annual returns of 8.0% compared with 9.6% over the past 10 years through July.
The Global Market Index (GMI) serves as a theoretical benchmark representing an “optimal” portfolio designed for the average investor with an unlimited investment horizon. While real-world investors face practical constraints, GMI provides a useful foundation for developing and adjusting asset allocation strategies based on individual goals, expectations, risk tolerance, and investment preferences. Historical data indicates that this passive benchmark has delivered competitive results compared with many active asset-allocation approaches, particularly after considering risk exposure, transaction costs, and taxes.
However, the forecasts presented should be viewed with caution, as some or even all projections may differ from actual future outcomes. GMI’s overall forecast is generally expected to be more reliable than predictions for individual asset classes because combining multiple market forecasts can help reduce the impact of errors and volatility over time.
These projections can also be used as a reference point for refining investment expectations. Investors may enhance the estimates by incorporating additional models, assumptions, and factors not included in the current framework. Portfolio strategies should ultimately be tailored to each investor’s specific circumstances, including risk capacity, investment horizon, and financial objectives.
To provide historical context, GMI’s performance can be evaluated through its rolling 10-year annualized returns. Compared with U.S. stock and bond ETFs, the benchmark has maintained strong long-term results. As of the latest update, GMI delivered a 9.6% annualized return over the past decade, slightly lower than the previous month but still reflecting strong historical performance.
The forecasts for the Global Market Index (GMI) are generated using three different models: Building Block (BB), Equilibrium (EQ), and Adjusted Equilibrium (ADJ). Each approach uses a different methodology to estimate future expected returns.
Building Block (BB) Model: The Building Block model estimates future returns based on historical performance. It analyzes data from January 1998 onward, calculates each asset class’s historical risk premium, converts it into an annualized return estimate, and then adds an expected risk-free rate. The risk-free rate is based on the latest yield of the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS), which represents the market’s estimate of a safe, inflation-adjusted return.
Equilibrium (EQ) Model: The Equilibrium model estimates expected returns by focusing on risk rather than directly forecasting returns. Since risk metrics are generally considered more predictable than future returns, the model uses three key inputs:
The expected market price of risk, measured by the Sharpe ratio (the relationship between risk premium and volatility).
The expected volatility of each asset class within GMI.
The expected correlation between each asset class and the overall GMI portfolio.
This approach first calculates expected risk premiums and then adds the risk-free rate to determine projected total returns.
Adjusted Equilibrium (ADJ) Model: The ADJ model follows the same framework as the Equilibrium model but incorporates short-term momentum and long-term mean-reversion factors. Forecasts are adjusted based on current asset prices compared with their 12-month and 60-month moving averages.
When prices are significantly above their recent averages, expected returns are reduced.
When prices are below their historical averages, expected returns are increased.
This adjustment reflects the idea that overvalued assets may experience weaker future returns, while undervalued assets may have stronger potential.
Average (Avg): The average forecast represents the simple mean of the three models (BB, EQ, and ADJ) for each asset class. This combined estimate is used as GMI’s overall expected return projection.
10-Year Return (10yr Ret): This metric shows the actual annualized total return achieved by each asset class over the previous 10 years up to the current reporting period, providing historical context for comparison.
Spread: The spread measures the difference between the average forecast and the historical 10-year return. A negative spread indicates that future expected returns are below recent historical performance, while a positive spread suggests expectations are higher than past results.
GBP/USD edged lower to around 1.3425 during the early Asian session on Tuesday as investors favored the safe-haven US Dollar amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-Iran relations.
US President Donald Trump maintained that discussions with Iran are currently taking place, while Iranian officials rejected the claim and stated that no negotiations are underway, adding to geopolitical uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar received additional support after the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in July, beating market expectations and signaling stronger-than-anticipated expansion in the manufacturing sector.
GBP/USD Slides Toward 1.3425 as Safe-Haven Dollar Gains on US-Iran Uncertainty
The GBP/USD pair weakened to around 1.3425 during Tuesday’s early Asian trading session, with the US Dollar attracting safe-haven demand amid persistent uncertainty surrounding potential US-Iran negotiations.
US President Donald Trump stated on Monday that discussions with Iran remain active, describing the situation as Tehran’s “last chance” to reach an agreement. He also indicated that negotiations could begin within the next few days with the aim of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing US concerns over Iran’s nuclear activities.
However, Iranian officials rejected Trump’s claims. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that no talks with Washington are currently underway and emphasized that Iran is focused on negotiations with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
The Greenback also drew support from stronger-than-expected US economic data. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.6 in July from 53.3 in June, surpassing market forecasts of 54.0 and signaling continued strength in the manufacturing sector.
Market participants are now turning their attention to the US July employment report due later this week, which could provide fresh clues about the outlook for the Federal Reserve and the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, sterling remains under pressure despite a relatively hawkish vote split at the Bank of England’s latest policy meeting. The BoE left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% in a 6-3 decision, with three policymakers favoring a rate increase. Nevertheless, Governor Andrew Bailey struck a cautious tone, arguing that the disinflation process remains on track and dampening expectations of an aggressive tightening cycle. Investors currently anticipate only one additional BoE rate hike before year-end.
Analysts at Rabobank noted that speculative bearish positions against the Pound increased ahead of the BoE meeting. While the Monetary Policy Committee delivered a more hawkish voting outcome than expected, Bailey’s dovish remarks limited support for sterling, leaving overall sentiment toward the currency subdued.
Silver remains supported as renewed US-Iran discussions regarding the Strait of Hormuz help alleviate concerns over disruptions to global oil supplies.
President Trump described his latest proposal for negotiations as Iran’s “last opportunity” after calling off a planned large-scale military strike against the country.
Financial markets are currently pricing in roughly a 65% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) continued to advance for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, hovering near $58.70 per troy ounce during Asian trading hours. The precious metal remains supported as investors seek non-yielding assets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and evolving economic conditions.
Market participants are closely watching developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations for clues about a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while also assessing the outlook for future Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated after US President Donald Trump described his latest proposal for talks as Iran’s “last chance,” following his decision to cancel a planned large-scale military operation. Trump indicated that formal discussions could begin soon, focusing on securing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and addressing longstanding concerns over Iran’s nuclear activities.
Iranian officials swiftly rejected the proposal. General Mohsen Rezaei, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, stated that Tehran would not allow the creation of a second corridor through the Strait and warned that any foreign naval or military presence introduced for that purpose would face direct retaliation.
Meanwhile, investors continue to adjust their expectations after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in July. According to CME FedWatch data, financial markets currently assign roughly a 65% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Fed’s September meeting.
Williams Maintains a Cautiously Hawkish Tone
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivered a moderately hawkish message, earning a 6.0/10 score on the FXS Speechtracker, slightly above its historical average of 5.8. His comments reflected confidence that current policy settings are appropriately positioned to guide inflation back toward the Fed’s 2% target.
Williams reiterated the central bank’s readiness to respond if inflation deviates from its desired path, while expressing optimism that price pressures will continue to moderate and that inflationary effects stemming from the Middle East conflict will gradually fade. His remarks suggested a patient but vigilant approach rather than signaling a push for aggressive tightening.
He also emphasized that market expectations provide useful input for policymakers but do not dictate policy decisions. In addition, Williams downplayed concerns that rising investment in artificial intelligence poses a threat to financial stability.
Despite the slightly hawkish tone, the FXS Fed Sentiment Index declined by 1.47 points to 146.76. While the reading remains firmly above the neutral 100 level, the drop suggests investors viewed Williams’ remarks as largely consistent with the Fed’s existing policy outlook rather than a signal of a more aggressive tightening cycle.
Gold prices drift lower toward the $4,050 level during Tuesday’s early Asian trading session. Market sentiment remains cautious after US President Donald Trump described upcoming Washington–Tehran negotiations as Iran’s “last chance” to reach an agreement. Investors are also turning their attention to the US July employment report, scheduled for release later on Friday, which could provide fresh direction for the precious metal.
Gold Slips Toward $4,050 as US–Iran Talks Remain Uncertain
Gold prices (XAU/USD) edged lower to around $4,050 during Tuesday’s early Asian session, retreating modestly from recent highs after the United States paused planned military action against Iran. Market participants are closely watching developments surrounding potential US–Iran negotiations for fresh direction.
According to Bloomberg, US President Donald Trump described the latest diplomatic proposal as Iran’s “last chance” after canceling what he claimed would have been a major strike on the country. Trump said discussions could begin within days, aiming to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address Washington’s concerns over Iran’s nuclear program.
However, Iran denied that direct negotiations with the US are underway, although officials indicated that talks with Oman to improve shipping traffic through the strategically important waterway are progressing.
Despite growing hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough, uncertainty in the Middle East remains elevated. Any renewed escalation between Washington and Tehran could lift crude oil prices and reinforce expectations that central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk, higher interest rates tend to reduce its appeal because the metal does not generate yield.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% during last week’s policy meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control, keeping the possibility of additional tightening on the table.
Investors are now focused on Friday’s US employment report, which could provide important clues about the Fed’s next policy moves. Analysts at Commerzbank note that expectations for further US rate hikes continue to limit gold’s upside potential, arguing that persistent speculation about tighter monetary policy is likely to discourage investors from aggressively extending the precious metal’s recent rally.
Gold has undergone a sharp correction over the past six months after reaching an exceptionally overheated peak during its strongest cyclical bull market on record. While the pullback damaged technical indicators and weakened investor sentiment, the price action has gradually formed a large falling-wedge pattern—a chart formation that often signals a bullish breakout.
By late January, gold had surged nearly 196% in less than 28 months, marking its biggest cyclical rally in US-dollar terms. The advance became increasingly parabolic, with prices climbing more than 43% above the 200-day moving average—the most overbought reading in almost 46 years. Such extreme conditions pointed to an inevitable correction, and historical comparisons suggested a sizable retracement was likely. Gold subsequently fell about 18.6% over less than two months, broadly matching expectations.
Although that decline may have established a temporary bottom, renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, expectations of safe-haven flows into the US Dollar, regional central-bank selling, and concerns over further Federal Reserve tightening prolonged the downturn. At the same time, investors have been adjusting to the Fed’s evolving communication strategy under its new leadership, adding further uncertainty. As a result, gold’s correction deepened to roughly 26% by late July, exceeding the average drawdowns seen after previous major bull markets.
Despite the extended weakness, selling pressure has noticeably eased. More than 70% of the total decline occurred during the early phase of the correction, while subsequent losses have become progressively smaller. This slowdown has created a descending support line, whereas increasingly cautious investor sentiment has driven lower highs at a faster pace, producing a steeper resistance line. Together, these converging trendlines have formed a classic falling-wedge pattern.
Falling wedges are characterized by narrowing downward-sloping trendlines, with resistance declining faster than support. They are also typically accompanied by weakening trading volume as bearish sentiment discourages buying activity. As prices become increasingly compressed within the pattern, the setup often culminates in a breakout, making the current technical structure a potentially constructive signal for gold.
Gold’s steep-looking falling-wedge pattern appears more dramatic because it is plotted against the backdrop of the largest cyclical bull market in its history. On a shorter six-month chart, however, the decline looks far less severe. As prices continue to compress between converging support and resistance trendlines, a breakout is drawing closer. Given the nature of falling wedges, the odds favor an upside resolution, potentially marking the beginning of a fresh bullish leg as selling pressure continues to fade and buyers gradually regain control.
Falling wedges are widely regarded as reversal patterns because prolonged declines eventually exhaust selling momentum, leaving fewer sellers while attracting bargain hunters. Although chart patterns alone are not enough to justify investment decisions, they become more compelling when supported by sentiment, technical signals, and underlying fundamentals. In gold’s case, the current wedge follows an extended correction rather than a speculative peak, making it consistent with the characteristics of a potential bottoming formation.
Investor sentiment also reinforces the bullish outlook. After months of losses, enthusiasm for gold has largely faded, with many traders either indifferent or expecting further declines. At the same time, gold reached its most oversold level relative to its 200-day moving average in nearly a decade during mid-July, suggesting downside momentum may be becoming exhausted. Historically, such deeply oversold conditions have often created attractive entry points for long-term investors.
The macro backdrop is also becoming more supportive. Markets appear to be reacting less aggressively to geopolitical headlines surrounding the US-Iran conflict, while fears of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes have started to lose their impact. Despite a more hawkish-than-expected Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, gold posted gains instead of extending its losses, a sign that buyers are becoming more resilient as the correction matures.
Fundamentals further strengthen the bullish case. Gold futures positioning indicates that speculative long exposure remains relatively low, leaving ample room for new buying. Investor allocations to gold also remain historically depressed, with the combined value of holdings in major US gold ETFs accounting for only a tiny fraction of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. Even a modest increase in portfolio allocations could generate meaningful demand for bullion. Meanwhile, global central banks continue to accumulate gold at a strong pace, with second-quarter purchases surging from a year earlier according to the latest Gold Demand Trends report.
Seasonal trends add another layer of support, as gold typically performs well through autumn, winter, and spring during bull markets. If gold breaks decisively above the falling-wedge resistance, mining stocks could outperform the metal itself thanks to their operational leverage. Taken together, oversold technicals, subdued investor positioning, supportive fundamentals, and favorable seasonality suggest that the current correction may be nearing its end, with a sustained bullish reversal becoming increasingly likely.
Oil prices come under heavy selling pressure after Iran signals a willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite crude prices surging more than 22% in July amid escalating US-Iran military tensions, traders remain cautious as doubts persist over the durability of the emerging peace agreement.
WTI crude oil futures on the NYMEX remain under significant pressure, falling 7.6% to around $78.60 during Monday’s Asian session. The decline comes after US President Donald Trump announced that planned strikes against Iran had been paused, following Tehran’s reported agreement to abandon its nuclear ambitions and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a vital shipping route that handles nearly 20% of global energy flows.
Trump stated on Truth Social that Iran and other Middle Eastern nations had requested a halt to military action after the framework of a deal was reached, including the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of Iran’s nuclear threat.
The announcement has raised expectations for renewed diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran, easing concerns over a prolonged disruption to global oil supplies.
However, WTI had previously surged more than 22.5% in July as escalating military tensions between the US and Iran fueled fears of supply constraints following the collapse of a ceasefire agreement.
Despite the latest developments, market participants remain cautious about the durability of the truce, with concerns that renewed tensions could once again threaten energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts at IG Markets warned that the key question is whether this week will repeat the previous pattern, where hopes of a deal fade as Iran maintains pressure over the strategic waterway.
WTI Technical Analysis
WTI crude oil is trading lower near $78.70, maintaining a bearish short-term outlook as prices continue to hold below the 20-hour exponential moving average (EMA) at $81.18. The failure to reclaim this key indicator suggests sellers remain in control following the recent pullback from the mid-$80 range. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 34.20, close to oversold levels, indicating that downward momentum remains strong but has not yet reached an extreme exhaustion point.
On the upside, the 20-hour EMA around $81.18 represents the first major resistance level and a crucial hurdle for buyers. A sustained move above this area would help reduce near-term selling pressure and signal a potential recovery attempt.
On the downside, the July 28 low at $77.16 serves as the key support level. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further losses, potentially opening the way toward the July 13 low at $72.53.
Bitcoin retreats below the $64,000 mark despite renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Ethereum’s recovery remains limited below the 100-day EMA, with the decline extending beneath the $1,900 level. Meanwhile, XRP continues to trade sideways within the $1.05–$1.10 range, supported by more than $7 million in ETF inflows recorded so far this week.
The cryptocurrency market broadly moved lower on Friday as investors continued to weigh rising macroeconomic uncertainty and escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below the $64,000 level after reaching a weekly high of $65,745, while major altcoins Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) remained under pressure below $1,900 and $1.10, respectively.
Investor sentiment weakened further throughout the week, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling to 25, placing the market firmly in “Fear” territory compared with 28 the previous day. The decline reflects cautious positioning as traders assess inflation risks, monetary policy uncertainty, and broader global tensions.
Despite the negative sentiment, institutional demand for crypto investment products remained resilient. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, although three officials pushed for a 25-basis-point increase, reigniting concerns over inflation and triggering volatility across financial markets.
According to analysts at Crypto Finance, these developments caused a sharp repricing in interest-rate expectations and equities before stronger corporate earnings helped stabilize investor confidence.
Meanwhile, spot crypto ETF inflows continued to improve. Bitcoin ETF inflows rose to $233 million on Thursday, up significantly from $32 million the previous day. Data from SoSoValue shows cumulative Bitcoin ETF inflows approaching $52 billion, highlighting continued long-term institutional confidence in the asset.
Ethereum ETFs saw more mixed activity, recording around $13 million in inflows on Thursday after experiencing $19 million in outflows on Wednesday. XRP ETFs also attracted stronger demand, with inflows climbing to nearly $6 million on Thursday and total weekly inflows exceeding $7 million, suggesting growing institutional interest despite broader market weakness.
Bitcoin Technical Outlook
Bitcoin is trading around $63,969, maintaining a bearish short-term structure as it remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). The 50-day EMA near $64,904 represents the closest resistance level, while the 100-day EMA at $67,460 and the 200-day EMA around $72,977 remain key barriers for a potential recovery.
Momentum indicators continue to signal caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly below the neutral zone, while the MACD histogram stays negative, indicating persistent downside pressure.
On the downside, Bitcoin lacks strong technical support on the current timeframe, leaving the market vulnerable to further declines toward previous lows and psychological levels around $62,000 and $60,000.
Analysts at Crypto Finance noted that while bears have struggled to gain strong momentum, the lack of a fresh bullish catalyst remains a significant challenge for Bitcoin’s recovery.
Ethereum Technical Outlook
Ethereum is trading near $1,890 after retreating from its weekly high of $1,981. The cryptocurrency remains capped below the 100-day EMA at approximately $1,932 and significantly below the 200-day EMA near $2,173, keeping the broader outlook bearish.
Although ETH is holding above the 50-day EMA around $1,850, sellers continue to defend the descending resistance trendline. The RSI near 54 indicates limited bullish momentum, while the MACD turning negative suggests further upside attempts may face resistance.
A breakout above the descending trendline could open the way toward $1,932 and eventually $2,173. However, a daily close below the 50-day EMA could increase downside risks toward $1,800 and $1,600.
XRP Technical Outlook
XRP is trading around $1.07, maintaining a bearish short-term outlook as it remains below its key moving averages. The price is trading beneath the 50-day EMA at $1.13, the 100-day EMA at $1.21, and the 200-day EMA at $1.41.
Momentum indicators remain weak, with the RSI near 44 and the MACD slightly negative, suggesting that any recovery attempts may encounter renewed selling pressure.
Immediate resistance is located near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $1.12, followed by the 50-day EMA at $1.13. A stronger recovery would require XRP to overcome resistance levels around $1.21, $1.28, and $1.34.
On the downside, the key support level remains near $1.01, corresponding to the 100% Fibonacci retracement area, where buyers may attempt to defend the previous swing low.
Overall, the crypto market remains under pressure as macro uncertainty and geopolitical risks weigh on sentiment. While ETF inflows indicate continued institutional interest, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP must overcome key technical resistance levels to regain bullish momentum.
What’s the full story? Bank of America downgraded Huntington Bancshares from Buy to Neutral and reduced its price target to $18.50. The post-merger integration following the Cadence acquisition has largely stabilized, but the anticipated valuation expansion has lost momentum. BofA is becoming less confident that investors will fully accept management’s ambitious 2027 EPS target of $1.90–$1.93, especially as pressure on net interest income continues to weigh on profitability.
The bank’s core revenue engine is showing signs of weakness. A 2% miss in quarterly net interest income forced management to acknowledge that FY26 revenue may fall below its previous target range. As a result, BofA lowered its EPS forecasts to $1.58 for FY26 and $1.85 for FY27. The new $18.50 price target reflects a balance between forward earnings multiples and tangible book value, suggesting limited upside potential if profit margins continue to deteriorate.
Tuesday – Clorox Co (NYSE: CLX)
What’s the full story? Jefferies downgraded Clorox to Hold after conceding that its previous bullish outlook was overly optimistic. The earlier investment thesis assumed the consumer staples company could generate more than $7.00 in fiscal 2027 earnings per share while successfully overcoming operational challenges. However, weaker market share trends have persisted, and the appointment of a new CEO points toward a broader strategic overhaul.
The expected turnaround will likely require increased investment, putting further pressure on earnings. Jefferies forecasts that Clorox’s upcoming FY27 guidance could come in around 6% below current market expectations. With recovery timelines extending and management preparing for a significant operational reset, the turnaround story has lost momentum. Investors may prefer to wait until the new leadership team demonstrates clearer progress.
What’s the full story? B. Riley upgraded Ribbon Communications from Neutral to Buy and raised its price target to $3.30, despite management recently cutting its full-year 2026 outlook. The upgrade reflects the view that previous company targets were unrealistically ambitious, creating repeated earnings disappointments. By resetting expectations to more achievable levels, management has reduced execution risk and created a stronger foundation for future growth.
Although the company lowered guidance due to weaker-than-expected third-quarter expectations and delayed Tier-1 customer deployments, second-quarter results still exceeded modest forecasts. B. Riley reduced its EBITDA estimates but assigned a higher valuation multiple, applying 1.0x 2027 enterprise value-to-sales. With unrealistic expectations already removed from the stock, the reset could provide a clearer path for operational improvement.
Thursday – New Oriental Education & Technology Group (NYSE: EDU)
What’s the full story? Macquarie upgraded New Oriental Education to Neutral and increased its price target by 15%, driven largely by the company’s strong shareholder return strategy. Fourth-quarter revenue increased 23% year-over-year, exceeding guidance, while non-GAAP operating margins improved by 60 basis points to 7.2%.
However, the improvement remains heavily dependent on the performance of the East Buy segment, while the core education business continues to show limited growth. Macquarie remains cautious about FY27 margin expansion, citing potential overseas restructuring costs that could impact efficiency goals.
Despite operational challenges, New Oriental’s strong cash generation supports investor returns. The company announced a new $500 million capital return program, including $300 million in dividends and $200 million in share buybacks, creating an estimated 6% total shareholder yield. This provides support for the stock’s valuation despite ongoing business pressures.
Friday – AXT Inc (NASDAQ: AXTI)
What’s the full story? Needham upgraded AXT from Hold to Buy and introduced a $90 price target, valuing the company at approximately 26 times projected 2028 earnings. The upgrade comes as the company’s fundamentals begin to improve significantly, making the valuation appear increasingly attractive.
AXT delivered another strong earnings performance, beating expectations for revenue, EPS, and forward guidance. The company plans to double its Indium Phosphide substrate capacity over the next year and has returned to profitability. New agreements with two major global laser manufacturers, combined with accelerating demand from China’s optical networking sector, are turning the data center growth narrative into tangible revenue opportunities and expanding market share.
Gold trades under pressure near $4,050 during Monday’s Asian session, even as falling Oil prices and a weaker US Dollar—driven by the decline in USD/JPY—would typically provide support. Expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, together with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continue to weigh on the precious metal ahead of this week’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, XAU/USD is trading at $4,082.83 and maintains a bearish short-term outlook as the price remains below key simple moving averages. The 50-day SMA at $4,185.76, the 100-day SMA at $4,426.31, and the 200-day SMA at $4,490.85 are all positioned above the current price, indicating that any recovery attempts may face resistance during the broader corrective trend. Meanwhile, the 21-day SMA at $4,073.95 provides immediate dynamic support. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 48.3, slightly below the neutral 50 level, signaling weak momentum and suggesting that the market remains in a consolidation phase with a downside bias.
On the upside, the first key resistance level is located around the 50-day SMA at $4,185.76. A daily close above this level would help reduce near-term bearish pressure and potentially pave the way for further gains toward the 100-day SMA at $4,426.31, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,490.85. On the downside, immediate support stands near the 21-day SMA at $4,073.95. A decisive break below this area could trigger additional declines and indicate that sellers are regaining control of the broader daily trend.
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is struggling to maintain gains above the $4,100 level after briefly closing above this threshold on Thursday, as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds strongly from six-week lows against its major currency counterparts.
Although Pakistan, acting as a mediator, stated that discussions between Tehran and Washington remain ongoing, renewed tensions in the Middle East have boosted demand for the Greenback as a safe-haven asset. The US carried out “heavy” strikes on Iran following new attacks against American forces in Jordan, increasing geopolitical uncertainty and supporting the USD.
In response, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf criticized the US actions, stating in a post on X that Washington would face consequences for its military response.
The Dollar is also benefiting from market expectations that the Federal Reserve may resume interest rate hikes later this year, despite Fed Chair Kevin Warsh maintaining a cautious stance on future monetary tightening during Wednesday’s post-meeting press conference.
HSBC analysts noted that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, as expected, but highlighted that the close 9-3 vote reflected significant debate within the FOMC. The bank maintains a neutral view on bond duration while favoring high-quality investment-grade credit due to attractive yields. HSBC also remains constructive on the US Dollar, supported by resilient US economic conditions and favorable interest rate differentials.
Beyond the Dollar’s recovery, Gold is facing additional pressure from weaker-than-expected Chinese official manufacturing PMI data for July, while investors remain cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision.
Markets saw sharp volatility during early US trading hours on Thursday after speculation of Japanese currency intervention sent the Yen (JPY) sharply higher, causing USD/JPY to plunge by around 600 pips within minutes. The sudden decline in USD/JPY weighed heavily on the Dollar, briefly allowing Gold to reclaim the $4,100 level.
Meanwhile, mixed US GDP figures and jobless claims data further pressured the USD and provided some support for the precious metal.
Looking ahead, Gold could receive a boost if the BoJ delivers a hawkish hold decision, potentially strengthening the Yen and putting additional pressure on the Dollar. However, a further escalation of Middle East tensions could have a mixed impact, as increased demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset may limit Gold’s upside potential.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades with a softer tone near 99.70 during Monday’s Asian session. The greenback came under pressure after President Trump stated that fresh negotiations with Iran would begin on Monday, following his decision to cancel a planned military strike. Investors are now turning their attention to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide important clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
US Dollar Weakens as Improved Risk Appetite and Iran Diplomacy Weigh on Safe-Haven Demand
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.70 during Monday’s Asian session. The index remains under pressure as improving market sentiment reduces demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Investors are also awaiting the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI later in the day for fresh economic signals.
Risk sentiment received a boost after US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he had canceled a planned military strike on Iran and that new talks between Washington and Tehran would begin on Monday. Trump indicated that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be within reach and reiterated his commitment to pursuing a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear program.
The prospect of easing tensions between the United States and Iran has diminished demand for the US Dollar as a defensive asset, weighing on the currency in the short term. If diplomatic progress continues, the greenback could face additional downside pressure against its major peers.
Market participants are now focused on Friday’s US labor market report for further direction. Economists forecast that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 91,000 jobs in July, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 4.3%. A stronger-than-anticipated employment report could provide support for the Dollar and help limit further losses in the DXY.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its July meeting last week. According to CME FedWatch data, traders now see roughly a 64.7% probability of a September rate hike, down significantly from nearly 77% before the Fed’s latest decision, reflecting a more cautious outlook for monetary tightening.
Analysts at Commerzbank believe the Dollar could face renewed selling pressure once geopolitical tensions ease further. They argue that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates as aggressively as current market pricing suggests, meaning the fading geopolitical premium could expose the currency to additional weakness if expectations for tighter policy continue to moderate.
Bitcoin Gains 9% in July as Crypto Shows Resilience Amid AI-Driven Market Selloff
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this week, but the bigger story for investors was the continued weakness in AI-related equities. While major technology stocks and semiconductor names extended their declines, Bitcoin quietly advanced around 9% during July, raising questions about whether cryptocurrencies could lead the next market recovery.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin has remained resilient, holding near $64,000 through the Fed meeting and posting a 9% gain for the month.
AI-focused equities are undergoing a significant deleveraging phase, with the Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) recording its steepest one-day decline since April 2025.
South Korea’s KOSPI index plunged roughly 16% over two sessions, triggering consecutive circuit breakers for the first time in the exchange’s history.
Investors are becoming increasingly skeptical of massive AI-related spending without clear evidence of profitable returns.
Regulatory progress in the U.S. crypto market, including support for the CLARITY Act, is providing an additional tailwind for digital assets.
Fed Decision Highlights Pressure on AI Stocks
Although the Federal Open Market Committee opted to keep rates unchanged, markets reacted negatively to the broader policy outlook. Expectations for another rate increase strengthened, with CME FedWatch indicating a 65.1% probability of a hike at the September meeting.
The hawkish backdrop weighed heavily on AI-related stocks. Nvidia lost more than 10% during the week, while investors increasingly questioned whether the enormous capital expenditures being made across the AI ecosystem would translate into sustainable earnings growth.
Earnings Reveal a Shift in Investor Priorities
The recent earnings season highlighted a clear distinction between companies demonstrating tangible AI-driven revenue growth and those merely increasing investment.
The Magnificent Seven ETF fell 4.7% following earnings reports from Alphabet and Tesla, marking its worst session since April 2025. Year-to-date, the ETF remains in negative territory despite strong gains across the broader S&P 500.
Among the major technology companies:
Alphabet reported second-quarter capital expenditures of $44.9 billion and raised its full-year spending outlook to $195–205 billion. Investors responded negatively as heavy investment pushed free cash flow into negative territory, sending shares down 7%.
Tesla missed earnings expectations and generated negative free cash flow of $1.1 billion. The stock declined roughly 20% during the week as investors grew less willing to pay for long-term AI and robotics ambitions without near-term profitability.
Meta delivered strong revenue growth but reported lower net income and shrinking free cash flow. Shares fell after management increased spending guidance despite declining profitability.
Microsoft stood out as the exception. Revenue exceeded expectations, Azure growth accelerated to 43%, and investors rewarded the company for demonstrating measurable AI monetization. Shares rose sharply after earnings.
The message from the market was straightforward: spending alone is no longer enough. Investors now want proof that AI investments can generate meaningful returns.
South Korea Signals Cracks in AI Valuations
The correction has not been limited to U.S. markets.
South Korea’s KOSPI index suffered its worst two-day decline on record, falling approximately 16% and triggering back-to-back trading halts. The selloff was driven largely by semiconductor weakness.
SK Hynix, despite reporting record operating profit and nearly sixfold earnings growth, still disappointed investors by narrowly missing analyst forecasts. The stock plunged almost 19% intraday.
The reaction underscored growing concerns that AI-related valuations may have become detached from realistic earnings expectations. Even exceptional profit growth is no longer guaranteeing positive market reactions.
Why Crypto May Recover Faster
In contrast to equities, Bitcoin has shown relative stability throughout the recent market turbulence.
While AI stocks continue to unwind, Bitcoin remains about 9% higher for July and has largely held key support levels. One explanation is that cryptocurrencies experienced their correction earlier. Bitcoin had already fallen more than 20% in June and remains roughly one-third below its recent highs.
Leverage dynamics also differ significantly.
AI-related equities benefited from a year of aggressive positioning through leveraged ETFs, margin borrowing, and expanding valuations. As sentiment turns, those positions are being unwound rapidly, amplifying downside volatility.
Crypto markets, by comparison, routinely flush excess leverage through liquidations. Significant ETF outflows and price declines during May and June already removed much of the speculative excess from the market. As a result, positioning appears cleaner and less vulnerable to forced selling.
Regulatory Momentum Supports the Crypto Narrative
Fundamentals are also improving.
On July 28, SEC Chair Paul Atkins expressed support for congressional efforts to advance the CLARITY Act and indicated the agency’s willingness to provide technical assistance. If enacted, the legislation would establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States.
This combination of reduced leverage, improving regulation, and an earlier correction strengthens the argument that crypto may be better positioned than AI equities for the next phase of recovery.
Looking Ahead
Several economic releases could shape market sentiment in the coming week:
August 3: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
August 5: U.S. ISM Services PMI
August 7: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report
Ongoing developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy markets
The labor market remains a critical variable. A second consecutive weak payroll report could reduce expectations for further rate hikes, while stronger employment data would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance.
Oil prices remain the most significant macro risk. Elevated energy costs continue to threaten inflation progress, and a combination of rising oil prices and stronger-than-expected employment data would likely create a challenging environment for risk assets across both equities and crypto markets.
JPMorgan lowered its silver price outlook to $60–$65 per ounce in July, triggering a broader wave of forecast reductions across Wall Street. However, despite the more cautious price expectations, none of the major banks suggested that the silver market’s underlying supply shortage had disappeared.
As of writing, silver is trading near $58.24 per ounce, while the gold-to-silver ratio stands around 69, meaning it takes 69 ounces of silver to purchase one ounce of gold. Historically, such a level is considered relatively high, implying that silver remains inexpensive compared to gold. Although silver has gained more than 50% over the past year, it still trades roughly 52% below its all-time high of $121.62, reached on January 29.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on July 29 for the fifth consecutive meeting, despite a divided 9–3 vote among policymakers. Silver showed little reaction to the decision and has failed to close above $60 since July 8. Throughout the month, the metal faced pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar, renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and concerns about slowing industrial demand. Against this backdrop, a series of downward revisions from major banks led some investors to assume that institutional sentiment toward silver had turned bearish.
However, it is important to distinguish between a price forecast and a market balance assessment. A price forecast reflects expectations for where silver prices may trade in the coming months, while a balance assessment evaluates whether global supply can adequately meet demand. During July, banks largely revised the former while leaving the latter intact. Failing to recognize this distinction can lead to misunderstandings about the market’s outlook.
A Wave of Forecast Downgrades
The shift began on July 8, when JPMorgan reduced its year-end silver forecast from roughly $81 to $60–$65 per ounce. The bank cited weakening investor interest following silver’s sharp decline from January’s record highs, along with softer industrial demand as elevated prices encouraged manufacturers to reduce silver usage. JPMorgan also highlighted the development of silver-free solar technologies as a significant long-term challenge for demand growth.
Other financial institutions followed suit. UBS sharply lowered its estimate for the 2026 silver supply deficit, cutting it by approximately 80%, from around 300 million ounces to 60–70 million ounces. The bank also reduced price targets across multiple timeframes and adopted a more neutral outlook, expecting silver to trade largely sideways. ING trimmed its forecasts due to weaker solar demand, rising bond yields, and a stronger dollar, while Commerzbank maintained a target of about $67 per ounce. Collectively, these revisions reflected a more conservative stance from sell-side analysts.
Deficit Remains Despite Lower Forecasts
While the revisions signaled lower price expectations, they did not indicate that the silver market had moved into surplus. Even UBS’s substantially reduced deficit estimate of 60–70 million ounces remains above the 46.3 million-ounce deficit projected for 2026 by the Silver Institute and Metals Focus. In other words, analysts are revising estimates closer to official forecasts rather than suggesting that supply shortages have disappeared.
Forecasts also remain highly dispersed. The difference between the most optimistic and most pessimistic projections is roughly $50 per ounce, nearly equal to silver’s current market price. Citigroup still expects silver to approach $110 during the second half of the year. Bank of America forecasts an average price of approximately $85.93 in 2026, while Goldman Sachs sees potential for $85–$100 if industrial demand remains resilient. Meanwhile, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) survey places the average 2026 forecast at $79.57 per ounce.
Perhaps the most notable takeaway is that even after a month of downward revisions, the consensus forecast remains more than $20 above current market levels. At around $58 per ounce, silver continues to trade below every major bank forecast, including the most conservative projections, underscoring the belief that supply constraints remain a key feature of the market despite softer near-term expectations.
Why Lower Price Targets Do Not Change the Core Investment Thesis
A key distinction investors should remember is that a reduced price target does not necessarily signal a change in the underlying market fundamentals. Instead, it often reflects an adjustment to recent price action rather than a reassessment of long-term supply and demand dynamics.
When JPMorgan lowered its silver forecast to $60–$65 per ounce, the bank was effectively acknowledging weaker near-term price momentum and expecting subdued performance over the coming months. However, this does not imply that silver production will suddenly exceed consumption. The long-term bullish thesis is built on physical market fundamentals, and those fundamentals remain largely unchanged. Global mine supply is still expected to remain relatively stable, demand continues to outpace production, and the market is projected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit.
Historical precedent also supports caution when interpreting analyst revisions. Throughout the current silver cycle, major banks have often adjusted their forecasts in response to price movements rather than anticipating them. Several institutions initially published conservative targets only to raise them repeatedly as silver rallied beyond expectations. As a result, mid-cycle forecast reductions following a correction are consistent with past behavior. In many cases, sell-side forecasts tend to follow market trends, lowering targets after declines and increasing them after rallies, making them better indicators of recent sentiment than future performance.
That said, bearish arguments should not be dismissed. Investor demand has undeniably weakened since silver’s January peak, exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings have declined, and solar-panel manufacturers continue working to reduce the amount of silver used in production. UBS’s decision to sharply lower its projected supply deficit represents a meaningful reassessment of the market’s scarcity outlook rather than a minor adjustment. Any balanced bullish argument must acknowledge these developments rather than ignore them.
Implications for Silver Investors
For investors, the most important takeaway is to distinguish between short-term price expectations and long-term market fundamentals.
A reduced price target simply indicates that analysts expect silver prices to remain under pressure in the near future. It says little about whether the global market remains undersupplied. On that question, major banks continue to project deficits, despite revising their price forecasts lower. Even the most conservative deficit estimates on Wall Street remain above official industry projections, while the broader analyst consensus still places silver prices significantly above current levels.
At present, silver trades below every major forecast, ranging from the most bearish projections to the most optimistic. This unusual situation highlights a market where investor sentiment has become cautious, yet the underlying supply-demand imbalance remains unresolved.
The broader investment case for silver continues to rest on a structural deficit expected to extend into a sixth consecutive year in 2026. Such a deficit means global consumption exceeds newly mined and recycled supply, forcing the market to draw from existing inventories. Lower analyst price targets do not increase those inventories or eliminate the shortage.
In the short term, silver prices are likely to remain sensitive to macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve policy, U.S. dollar strength, and energy market developments. These influences can drive significant volatility from week to week. However, the structural deficit evolves much more slowly and remains largely unaffected by temporary shifts in market sentiment.
As a result, while July’s forecast downgrades may have weakened confidence in the near-term outlook, they did not fundamentally alter the underlying mathematics of the silver market. The sentiment has changed, but the supply-demand imbalance that supports the longer-term thesis remains in place.
USD/CAD edges higher as the US Dollar stages a solid rebound from its lowest level since June 17. Rising tensions between the United States and Iran continue to fuel inflation concerns and reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a hawkish stance, providing support for the Greenback. Meanwhile, worries over potential supply disruptions help keep oil prices elevated, lending support to the Canadian Dollar and limiting further gains in the currency pair.
The USD/CAD pair moved slightly higher during Friday’s Asian trading session, ending a three-day decline that had pushed the pair to its lowest level since June 17. The pair remains above the key 1.4000 level, although buying momentum appears limited.
The US Dollar found modest support as markets continued to price in the possibility of at least one additional interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve. While recent US economic data painted a mixed picture—showing slower economic growth in the second quarter and easing inflation pressures through the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—investors remain cautious about ruling out further monetary tightening.
Despite signs of cooling inflation, fluctuating oil prices continue to raise concerns about price stability, potentially encouraging the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy stance. At the same time, escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, along with fears of a wider Middle East conflict, have boosted demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. Most recently, the US military confirmed a major wave of strikes against Iranian targets in response to missile attacks on American forces earlier in the week.
However, gains in USD/CAD may remain constrained by support for the Canadian Dollar. Iran’s rejection of an Omani proposal regarding partial control of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with continued attacks by Yemen’s Houthi forces in key shipping routes such as the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden, has intensified concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies. These risks have helped support crude oil prices, which in turn provide backing for the oil-sensitive Canadian Dollar and may limit further upside in the USD/CAD pair.
