Last Updated on 06/08/2026
Silver advanced as lower oil prices followed a partial agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, helping to ease inflationary pressures. Softer-than-expected US ADP private employment data further boosted precious metals, reinforcing expectations of a more accommodative interest-rate outlook. Meanwhile, a positive 14-day RSI and a supportive Fed Sentiment Index continued to indicate solid and sustained bullish momentum for silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) extended its rally for a fourth straight session, trading near $62.20 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session. The precious metal continued to benefit from improving market sentiment after an agreement to partially restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz helped drive oil prices lower, easing concerns about inflationary pressures and the future path of interest rates.
The development follows a deal between Iran and Oman to establish a temporary maritime corridor through the key energy route, raising expectations for stronger Middle Eastern oil exports. A joint statement outlining the arrangement is reportedly nearing completion. Although the shipping channel is expected to remain operational for two to four months, Iranian officials emphasized that the measure should not be viewed as a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil market structure points to speculation-driven moves
Analysts at TD Securities argue that recent swings in oil prices appear to be driven more by speculative positioning than by any meaningful change in supply-demand fundamentals. They note that oil timespreads have remained relatively strong, indicating that traders reacting to headlines are largely behind the recent volatility rather than a loosening of physical market conditions. According to the firm, robust timespreads continue to signal a fundamentally tight crude market despite heightened geopolitical risks and speculative trading activity.
At the same time, weaker US labor market data added another layer of support for precious metals. ADP data released Wednesday showed private-sector employment increased by only 44,000 jobs in July, down sharply from 98,000 in June and below expectations of 70,000. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming US labor indicators, including Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, for further clues on the economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy direction.
Fed’s Cook highlights inflation risks while leaving door open for future rate hikes
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered remarks that carried a moderately hawkish tone, earning a score of 7.2/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, slightly above the historical average of 6.5/10. Her comments acknowledged the resilience of the US economy and labor market but emphasized that inflation risks remain a greater concern than employment weakness. Cook reiterated the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability while stressing that additional rate hikes would only be considered if progress on disinflation stalls.
The speech was generally supportive of the US Dollar and reflected a cautious stance toward risk-sensitive assets. However, it stopped short of signaling any immediate tightening measures, leaving policymakers data-dependent.
Meanwhile, the FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped 1.93 points to 140.92, suggesting a modest reduction in perceived hawkishness after the speech. Even so, the index remains comfortably above the neutral 100 level, indicating that overall Fed communication continues to lean firmly toward a restrictive policy stance despite the slight easing in tightening expectations.
Technical Analysis: Silver maintains bullish momentum
Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $62.20 and continues to display a constructive near-term outlook. The metal remains above its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $59.76, reflecting ongoing bullish momentum, although the 50-day EMA at $62.69 continues to act as immediate resistance. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56.81, reinforcing the view that buying pressure remains intact without entering overbought territory.
A decisive daily close above the 50-day EMA at $62.69 could strengthen bullish momentum and pave the way for a move toward the next major resistance zones at $90.03 and $96.62, although those targets remain considerably higher than current market levels. On the downside, initial support is located at the nine-day EMA of $59.76, followed by a stronger support area around $55.63. Overall, the technical backdrop remains tilted to the upside as long as Silver holds above its short-term moving average.
Leave a Reply