Tag: market

The author argues that fiat currency is increasingly unstable due to excessive government debt and geopolitical tensions, while gold represents enduring monetary strength. Historically, there have been only four major rallies in fiat currencies over the past 50 years, each weaker than the last, suggesting a long-term decline in confidence.

Concerns are growing as the U.S. continues expanding debt while using its currency as a geopolitical tool, prompting individuals and institutions to shift toward gold. Although some investors missed earlier buying opportunities around $4,400, the current ascending triangle pattern on gold’s chart suggests further upside potential, with a projected target near $5,900.

U.S. stock valuations are extremely elevated, while government deficit spending relative to GDP is already at levels typically seen during severe crises. If deficits remain this high during strong markets and under an administration that claims fiscal discipline, the concern is that a future crisis—combined with less restraint—could drive the deficit-to-GDP ratio even higher.

In short, individuals should prepare not only for a potential U.S. recession but possibly a stagflationary downturn, with the suggested strategy being to strengthen personal savings through holdings in gold and silver.

On the geopolitical front, rising tensions are viewed as supportive for gold. One concern is the idea of pressuring Taiwan to shift advanced semiconductor production to the U.S., potentially through heavy tariffs on Taiwanese-made chips. Such actions could increase inflation and strain U.S.–Taiwan relations, possibly reshaping regional dynamics with China. Overall, the situation appears increasingly unstable—conditions that historically tend to benefit gold as a safe-haven asset.

In Cuba, worsening economic conditions—such as public transportation disruptions—reflect deeper structural problems, with little sign of meaningful reform. If instability escalates, it could increase global uncertainty, a backdrop that typically supports higher gold prices.

The US government’s disturbing plot to elevate election denier, admirer of torture, and destroyer of civic life Delcy Rodríguez has already taken another troubling turn. This nightmare is just one of many geopolitical mechanisms propping up gold interests.
Could it get even more absurd? In theory, yes — if María Corina Machado were arrested next. Would President Trump then flaunt a Nobel Prize she once held to his followers obsessed with fiat currency and oil, while she languished in prison under Rodríguez’s brutal treatment?

In such a scenario, Venezuela could spiral into civil war, with chaos on a scale that might rival what we’re seeing in Iran.

So, do you have any gold?

What about silver? Silver also looks very strong. A glance at the chart highlights the 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator at the bottom.

It has moved into the buy zone — only the third time this has happened since August. A rally back toward the $122 highs appears entirely achievable.

Silver reached solid support near $70 just as gold touched $4,400. I encouraged investors to anchor their purchases to gold’s powerful technical performance. Those who stepped in at that point are being rewarded, with silver already climbing back above $80 this morning — and the opportunity may still not be gone for those considering entry.

And the miners? Take a look at the daily CDNX “Jump in the Pool” chart. The Stochastics indicator is signaling strong momentum, and even if prices retreat toward support around 825, that would likely present another attractive buying opportunity.

The long-term chart looks remarkable. A massive inverse head-and-shoulders pattern appears to be forming. Notice the blue circle on the left side of the chart — a pause around the neckline area now would simply enhance the symmetry between the right and left sides. For enthusiastic junior mining stock investors, the outlook suggests the potential for years of rising prices ahead.

What about the senior miners — are they worth buying as well? Looking at the long-term GDX versus gold chart, a large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is taking shape. The formation closely mirrors what’s developing on the CDNX versus fiat chart.

A glance at the daily chart suggests there may be some consolidation over the next couple of weeks. However, Stochastics has returned to levels last seen in November. Considering the alarming deficit-to-GDP dynamics, ongoing geopolitical turmoil, and the shifting global power landscape, I’d argue that senior gold stock investors worldwide should be ready to step up and take action.

Sources: Stewart Thomson

Gold futures remain in a well-defined bullish consolidation, with prices oscillating around the VC PMI daily mean near 4,982. The market’s continued defense of the Buy-1 level at 4,768 and Buy-2 at 4,556 reinforces the view that institutional demand is emerging on pullbacks. This price action aligns with the core VC PMI mean-reversion framework: sustained trade above the mean increases the probability of a move toward the Sell-1 and Sell-2 targets.

Within the VC PMI framework, the weekly mean around 4,839 has acted as the key pivot for directional bias. As long as price action remains above this level, bullish momentum is sustained, with upside projections toward the daily Sell-1 resistance at 5,094 and Sell-2 at 5,208. These zones mark statistically extreme levels where the probability of mean reversion typically exceeds 90% under normal market conditions. A decisive breakout and close above Sell-2 would indicate a transition into a higher-volatility regime, opening the door to the weekly Sell-1 level at 5,255 and potentially the weekly Sell-2 target near 5,530.

Square-of-9 geometry closely mirrors the current price structure, highlighting that the recent peak near 5,113 aligns with a harmonic resistance angle projected from prior cycle lows around 4,423. This geometric relationship suggests gold is completing a rotational phase ahead of its next directional move. When prices oscillate between key geometric angles, it often signals energy compression that ultimately resolves through a momentum expansion.

Time-cycle analysis into mid-February points to a critical inflection window. With prices consolidating above the mean, the higher-probability outcome favors continuation toward upper resistance bands. Conversely, a failure to hold the 4,982 pivot would likely prompt a corrective rotation toward 4,768 and potentially 4,556, levels where longer-term accumulation demand is expected to reappear.

The combined use of VC PMI price levels, time-cycle analysis, and Square-of-9 geometry creates a multidimensional framework for identifying high-probability inflection points. Rather than forecasting direction, traders should concentrate on price reactions at the mean and statistically extreme bands. Directional bias is ultimately confirmed by the market itself, once price closes decisively above or below these levels.

Sources: Patrick MontesDeOca

Gold is consolidating recent gains around the $5,000 level, with buyers gradually building momentum for a potential sustained uptrend as a pivotal week gets underway. Market attention is firmly on the delayed U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report due Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index data scheduled for release on Friday.

Fundamental Analysis

As the new, data-heavy week begins, dovish sentiment surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve is setting the tone, with renewed reflation trades helping gold extend Friday’s strong rebound from the $4,650 area.

After last week’s weak U.S. labor data, markets have continued to price in the first Fed interest-rate cut as early as June, even as investors remain divided over the likely policy stance of Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh.

Risk appetite has also been supported by a resurgence in reflationary trades, sparked by Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party securing a decisive majority in snap elections. The outcome has reinforced expectations of debt-funded fiscal stimulus, further underpinning the broader reflation theme.

Adding to gold’s support, the U.S. dollar has softened amid renewed weakness in USD/JPY following strong verbal intervention from Japanese authorities. The resulting dollar pressure has helped keep the precious metal buoyant.

That said, gold’s recovery momentum appears somewhat constrained as overall risk sentiment remains upbeat on expectations of expansionary fiscal policies in Japan. Japanese equity markets have surged to record highs, lifting broader Asian stocks and reducing demand for traditional safe havens.

Looking ahead, it remains uncertain whether gold can sustain its rebound, as traders may grow more cautious and adjust positions ahead of Wednesday’s closely watched U.S. January jobs report.

XAU/USD Technical Overview

On the daily chart, XAU/USD is trading around $5,023.88, with the technical structure firmly tilted to the upside. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has crossed above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, and all are sloping higher, highlighting a strong and well-established bullish trend. Prices remain comfortably above these moving averages, keeping buyers in control.

Momentum indicators also support the constructive outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57.72, holding above the neutral 50 level and well below overbought territory, suggesting steady positive momentum without signs of exhaustion. Immediate dynamic support is provided by the rising 21-day SMA at $4,873.06.

This bullish alignment implies that any pullbacks are likely to be limited as long as prices stay above the faster moving average. A daily close below the 21-day SMA would signal a deeper corrective move, potentially exposing the 50-day SMA near $4,563.97. For now, the continued rise in medium- and long-term SMAs favors a buy-on-dips approach and keeps the broader trend firmly pointed higher.

Sources: Fxstreet

Gold prices climbed in Asian trading on Monday, with silver also advancing after precious metal markets experienced sharp volatility last week amid weaker safe-haven demand, profit-taking, and heightened uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy.

This week’s focus is on a series of key U.S. economic releases—most notably nonfarm payrolls and consumer price index inflation data—which are expected to offer fresh signals on the outlook for the world’s largest economy. Demand for haven assets eased as the United States and Iran showed signs of progress in weekend talks, with both sides agreeing to continue negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,996.47 an ounce by 20:49 ET (01:49 GMT), after briefly touching an intraday high of $5,046.79. April gold futures gained 0.8% to $5,016.21 an ounce.

Spot silver jumped 3.3% to $80.5330 an ounce, extending its rebound from lows near $60 an ounce seen last week. Platinum underperformed, slipping 2.3% to $2,068.45 an ounce.

Precious metals saw sharp swings last week as investors weighed the outlook for U.S. monetary policy under President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh. His nomination boosted the dollar, triggering broad selling across metal markets as traders also took profits after strong recent gains in gold and silver.

So far in 2026, gold and silver remain up about 15% and 5%, respectively, despite both metals retreating sharply from record highs reached in early February.

Sources: Ambar Warrick

Gold futures are currently trading around 4,841.7, holding steady above the VC PMI daily Buy 1 level at 4,765 and the Buy 2 support at 4,640. This price action suggests the market has entered a well-defined mean-reversion accumulation zone. It reflects the natural interaction between price and time cycles, where markets extend into extreme areas before reverting toward equilibrium.

The VC PMI daily mean at 4,905 now acts as the key price magnet. A sustained close above this level would signal the return of bullish momentum, potentially paving the way for a move toward Sell 1 at 5,030 and Sell 2 at 5,170.

On the weekly timeframe, the VC PMI mean at 5,024 aligns closely with an upper resistance cluster and Square of 9 harmonic geometry. This confluence implies that once price establishes itself above the 4,905 mean, upside momentum could accelerate rapidly toward the 5,000–5,170 zone.

The Square of 9 framework suggests current price action is progressing through a harmonic relationship between time and price, with the next cycle window extending into mid-February. These cycle windows often mark potential inflection points, where volatility expands and directional conviction strengthens.

From a structural perspective, maintaining levels above 4,765 preserves the bullish accumulation framework and indicates that institutional demand continues to absorb selling pressure. The deeper support at 4,640 marks the lower extreme of the daily cycle. A decisive break below that level would suggest the market is not yet ready to complete its bullish phase and could prompt a retracement toward lower weekly support zones.

However, as long as price holds above the 4,640–4,765 support zone, the odds continue to favor a mean-reversion advance toward the 5,030 and 5,170 upside targets.

By integrating VC PMI price levels, time cycles, and Square of 9 geometry, this framework offers a structured way to identify high-probability turning points. Markets operate in recurring phases of expansion and contraction, and these tools are designed to quantify those cycles with consistency, discipline, and objectivity.

Sources: Patrick MontesDeOca