- Bitcoin (BTC) remains above $64,000, gaining roughly 0.7%.
- Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement has weighed on oil prices, helping ease concerns about inflation.
- US equities have climbed to fresh record highs, but the still-weak correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has limited Bitcoin’s upside momentum.
- Continued net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are providing additional support for the cryptocurrency.
- Technical outlook: Bitcoin maintains a constructive bias while holding above key support levels, with traders watching for a breakout that could trigger the next leg higher.
Bitcoin remains comfortably above the $64,000 mark, supported by growing optimism over potential U.S.-Iran peace talks and renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Despite these tailwinds, BTC has gained only about 0.7% over the past 24 hours, lagging the broader rally in risk assets.
Market sentiment improved as hopes increased that the U.S. and Iran could reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have fallen for a third consecutive session and are down roughly 10% this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that an agreement to restore shipping through the strategic waterway could be reached within days.
The decline in oil prices has helped ease inflation concerns, pushing Treasury yields lower. If the trend persists, investors may further reduce expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
Markets are currently assigning a 59% probability to a Fed rate hike in September, down from 65% a day earlier. The shift in rate expectations has also weighed on the U.S. dollar, creating a more favorable backdrop for Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.
Meanwhile, optimism surrounding a potential Middle East agreement and renewed enthusiasm for AI-related investments have driven U.S. equities to fresh highs, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones reaching record levels.
Bitcoin, however, has not mirrored the strength seen in stocks. A relatively weak 30-day correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 helps explain the divergence, suggesting that broader risk-on sentiment alone may not be enough to fuel a major breakout. Instead, Bitcoin may require a crypto-specific catalyst to generate stronger upside momentum.
Institutional Demand Continues to Support Bitcoin
Institutional interest in Bitcoin is showing encouraging signs. Data from SoSoValue revealed that spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $211.5 million in net inflows on Tuesday, following another strong session that saw $170.1 million in net inflows the day before.
If ETF demand remains robust and Bitcoin begins to strengthen its positive correlation with equity markets, these flows could provide additional support for higher prices. On the other hand, if institutional participation fails to accelerate meaningfully, BTC may continue to underperform despite the broader rally across risk assets.
Looking ahead, market focus is shifting toward upcoming U.S. economic data. Investors will closely monitor the ISM Services PMI release, followed by Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, both of which could offer important clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates and influence Bitcoin’s near-term direction.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Recovery Faces Key Resistance
Bitcoin has pushed back above the $64,000 level, but the broader technical picture remains slightly bearish. The price continues to trade below the 50-day EMA near $64,600, as well as the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating that the recent advance may still be a corrective rebound within a larger downtrend. Meanwhile, the RSI remains near neutral territory, highlighting a lack of strong bullish or bearish momentum.
On the downside, failure to regain the 50-day EMA could trigger a retest of support around $62,500, which marks both the weekly low and the mid-July trough. A move below this level would bring the psychologically important $60,000 threshold into focus, followed by the 2026 low near $57,700. A break beneath $57,700 would confirm a lower low, increasing the risk of a deeper decline toward $55,000 and potentially $50,000, levels not seen since 2024.
For the bullish outlook to strengthen, Bitcoin must first reclaim the 50-day EMA at $64,600 and then break above the July peak near $67,000. Such a move would establish a higher high and could pave the way for a test of the 200-day EMA, currently located around $72,500.
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