- Bitcoin traded sideways even as equities pushed to fresh record highs, underscoring its lack of correlation with the broader rally across global markets.
- Despite stocks climbing to new highs, Bitcoin remained largely range-bound, highlighting its divergence from the strength seen in traditional financial markets.
- Bitcoin showed little movement while global equities extended their gains, reflecting a continued disconnect from wider market optimism.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded in a narrow range as equities continued to climb and gold pulled back, indicating a market caught between fading institutional participation and mounting signs that selling pressure may be running out, according to a Glassnode report released Wednesday.
The report noted that Bitcoin’s muted price action contrasted sharply with the broader financial landscape, where major stock indexes pushed to fresh record highs while other asset classes remained active.
“Virtually every major asset has moved—except Bitcoin,” Glassnode observed, highlighting the cryptocurrency’s growing disconnect from the momentum driving global markets.
Bitcoin Shrugs Off Coldcard Wallet Theft
The report analyzed how the market reacted to the compromise of several self-custodied Coldcard hardware wallets. Although the incident sparked a surge in on-chain activity, it had virtually no effect on Bitcoin’s price.
In the three days following the theft, the volume of Bitcoin that had been inactive for at least a year surged to roughly 119,000 BTC—about 200 times the amount stolen—as users transferred funds to new wallets as a precautionary measure.
Despite the heightened activity, only around 10% of those coins were sent to exchanges, while the pace of new wallet creation normalized within days. Meanwhile, the amount of Bitcoin held in wallets less than one month old continued to increase, suggesting investors were relocating assets into new cold-storage addresses rather than preparing to sell.
According to Glassnode, the largest forced movement of long-dormant Bitcoin during the current market cycle generated virtually no selling pressure and failed to trigger any meaningful price reaction.
Bitcoin Shows Bottoming Signals but Demand Remains Weak
The report also highlighted that Bitcoin is beginning to exhibit traits commonly associated with market bottoms, though the current setup differs from previous cycles. Instead of being driven by panic selling, the signals are emerging from an extended period of market stagnation.
Historically, major bottoms have been accompanied by steep declines and sharp spikes in volatility. In contrast, the current cycle has seen profitability gradually erode during months of sideways price action, while volatility has remained exceptionally subdued.
Glassnode noted that its Seller Exhaustion Constant has dropped to the lowest level of the current cycle, entering a zone that has historically coincided with market bottoms. However, the metric remains roughly one-third above the levels recorded during prior bear-market troughs, suggesting that while seller fatigue is increasing, conditions have not yet fully matched those seen at previous cycle lows.
Institutional Demand Still Missing as a Key Catalyst
Glassnode also pointed to persistent weakness in institutional participation, noting that major sources of demand have provided little support for Bitcoin in recent months. According to the report, US spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buyers have not generated enough buying pressure to sustain the market’s recovery.
June saw approximately 65,800 BTC in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs—the largest monthly withdrawal on record—while purchases by corporate treasuries failed to fully offset those redemptions.
As Glassnode noted, any eventual market bottom may need to develop without the steady institutional buying that underpinned Bitcoin’s performance over the past two years, at least until that demand returns.
Despite the lack of strong buying interest, options markets remain remarkably subdued. Implied volatility for bullish price moves has fallen to an all-time low, while downside volatility remains near typical levels, suggesting traders are assigning relatively low probabilities to both significant rallies and sharp declines.
Historically, periods of extremely compressed volatility have often preceded major breakouts. However, Glassnode cautioned that the current market environment lacks the robust demand backdrop that supported previous recoveries, making a sustained rebound less certain.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $64,900, up roughly 1% over the previous 24 hours.
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