After the latest price action, markets are nearing a key inflection point.
The U.S. dollar is pressing against a significant resistance area, while precious metals are holding just above important support levels. The way today’s session closes could offer the confirmation traders have been waiting for and help define the next major directional move.
U.S. Dollar Index (DX.F)
As noted in the prior session:
“(…) The dollar remains confined within a relatively tight range, with recently reclaimed March highs acting as support, while a major resistance zone caps upside near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, the upper edge of the rising channel, and a bearish gap from late May 2025 (100.75–100.95). (…)”
From a current standpoint, buyers have successfully defended the reclaimed March highs, giving the dollar enough momentum to retest the highlighted resistance cluster.
At present, the index is trading above both the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the prior bearish gap from last year. However, the upper boundary of the rising channel remains a key barrier.
This level is important because today’s close could prove decisive not only for the dollar but also for the broader metals complex.
A daily close above the channel resistance would signal a potential breakout, opening the path toward the next resistance zone around 101.39–101.59, where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension aligns with the May 2025 highs. Such a development would likely weigh on precious metals.
Conversely, another failed breakout—similar to Friday’s rejection—could push the dollar back toward the March highs, offering relief to metals and easing downside pressure.
In short, today’s close may be one of the most consequential of the week.
Platinum (PL.F)
On the daily chart, one clear observation stands out.
Although platinum has not yet registered a daily close below the key 1641 level, buyers were unable to hold the June low—a technical signal that raises doubts about their commitment to sustaining higher prices.
The current low is now positioned within an important support zone, formed by two bullish gaps from late November, the lower boundary of the orange channel, and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Put differently, support is still present.
However, support by itself is not sufficient.
If buyers fail to reclaim 1665 by today’s close—in effect losing the bullish gap from June 12—a move toward the 1600 area becomes increasingly probable, particularly if the U.S. dollar maintains upward momentum, consistent with Friday’s bearish scenario.
On the other hand, the first meaningful sign of recovery would be a daily close back above 1707, which would also reinforce the earlier invalidation of the break below the March low.
Palladium (PA.F)
To frame today’s session, it is useful to revisit yesterday’s outlook:
“(…) Palladium remains below the previously broken lower boundary of the orange consolidation. As long as price holds below 1305, a further decline toward the 1234 area cannot be ruled out. (…)”
From today’s perspective, palladium has largely followed that bearish roadmap, with the downside target now reached. Price is currently trading beneath the lower boundary of the June 12 bullish gap.
This is an unfavorable development for buyers.
The reason is straightforward: a sustained break below that gap threatens the validity of the previously discussed double-bottom structure.
At this stage, bulls need to act quickly to reclaim the gap. If they fail to do so, the market is likely to shift its focus toward the possibility of another downside extension.
Copper (HG.F)
Copper (HG.F) moved in line with yesterday’s technical expectations. As previously noted:
“(…) As long as Thursday’s price gap remains unfilled, the bearish outlook for Friday stays in place:
“(…) with the downside gap from Thursday still acting as overhead resistance, a retest of today’s low and a possible move toward the next support area around 617–619 remains on the table.”
The failed attempt to break back into the lower edge of Thursday’s bearish gap sparked renewed selling pressure, and price ultimately reached the projected downside target (well done to those who positioned for the move).
From here, the setup becomes more nuanced.
Copper has now entered a key support region defined by prior highs from February and April, along with the May 20 low. This zone previously stabilized price action in May and could again act as a base for buyers to step in.
However, given the strength and momentum of today’s bearish candle, any recovery may initially be limited, with a move toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 611 looking more likely than a full bullish reversal at this stage.
Today’s Takeaway
Dollar (DX.F)
- Focus on the upper boundary of the rising channel
- A daily close above it would open the path toward 101.39–101.59
- Rejection would likely lead to a retest of the March highs
- Today’s close is a key confirmation point
Platinum (PL.F)
- Key level to watch: 1665
- A close below this support keeps bearish pressure in place
- Next major support lies near 1600
- Bullish momentum only improves on a move back above 1707
Palladium (PA.F)
- Trading below the June 12 bullish gap at 1249 raises the risk of further downside and a retest of recent lows
- A recovery back above this level would weaken the bearish setup
Copper (HG.F)
- Currently testing the 612.85–615 support zone
- Next key level below is 611
- A move back above 627.50 would invalidate today’s bearish breakdown
Stay disciplined, respect key levels, and let confirmation guide positioning.
THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN 
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