Gold rebounds from its November 2025 lows as the US Dollar rally loses momentum ahead of the US PCE data release.

• Gold comes under selling pressure for a third straight session, showing little reaction to a slight pullback in the US Dollar.
• Meanwhile, easing inflation concerns have led traders to scale back expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, limiting the US Dollar’s upside.
• Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming US PCE inflation data for clearer signals on the Fed’s future policy direction and fresh market momentum.

Gold (XAU/USD) recovers from the area near its lowest level since November 2025, reached in the previous session, and trades around the key $4,000 level during Thursday’s late Asian trading hours. A slight pullback in the US Dollar (USD) provides some support for the precious metal as traders adjust positions ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The important inflation report is expected to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future monetary policy and influence the non-yielding metal.

At the same time, inflation concerns have eased in recent weeks as Crude Oil prices dropped sharply following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, a temporary 60-day sanctions waiver allowing the production, shipment, and sale of Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products pushed oil prices to their lowest levels since before the US-Iran conflict. Lower oil prices could reduce inflationary pressure, prompting traders to cut back expectations for additional Fed rate hikes. As a result, US Treasury yields have weakened, limiting further gains in the USD and offering some relief to Gold prices.

However, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, investors still see more than an 80% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates again before the end of the year, which may help prevent a significant decline in the USD. Meanwhile, the recent global selloff in technology stocks continues to hurt market sentiment and supports demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. This strengthens expectations for further short-term weakness in Gold prices, suggesting that any recovery attempts may face selling pressure and remain limited. In addition, staying below the important $4,000 psychological level reinforces the bearish outlook for the precious metal.

Gold H4 Chart

Gold sellers remain cautious as oversold market conditions hint that the recent decline may be losing momentum, though the broader bearish outlook remains intact. Repeated failures near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, combined with the overnight drop below the previous year-to-date low and the key $4,000 level, reinforced bearish sentiment toward XAU/USD. However, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near oversold territory around 28, suggesting that the downward momentum could begin to slow. As a result, traders may prefer to wait for a period of consolidation or a short-term rebound before expecting another deeper decline.

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the zero line and continues to weaken, indicating that any recovery attempts may struggle while Gold trades well below the 100-period SMA near $4,258. Meanwhile, any stronger rebound above the $4,000 psychological level could attract renewed selling interest around the $4,065–$4,070 zone, likely limiting gains near the $4,100 area. Buyers would need to break decisively above that resistance region to reduce immediate bearish pressure and support a more sustained upward move toward the 100-period SMA.