After more than 100 days of conflict, financial markets finally have a clearer framework to price in developments. However, with Iran’s nuclear ambitions still unresolved, the coming two months could be just as pivotal as the period that preceded them.
- A US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) has created a pathway toward a formal peace agreement that could be finalized within 60 days.
- Brent crude has plunged and the US dollar has softened as investors unwind positions established to hedge against geopolitical tensions.
- Gold has continued to advance, reflecting lingering caution over unresolved nuclear-related risks.
- EUR/USD bulls are targeting a key resistance area overhead.
Following more than three months of war, an official MOU is now in place and could serve as the foundation for a comprehensive peace accord within the next 60 days. Iran has confirmed the agreement, while a formal signing ceremony is scheduled to take place in Switzerland on Friday.
As expected, the announcement has triggered a sharp reversal of geopolitical risk trades. Even so, markets remain far from pre-conflict conditions, as investors are still concerned about how easily negotiations could break down. Iran’s nuclear program and uranium stockpiles remain major obstacles to a lasting settlement. Those concerns were highlighted just hours before the agreement, when Israel and Hezbollah were still exchanging missile strikes, underscoring the fragility of the situation.
Trump, meanwhile, presented a far more optimistic narrative on Truth Social, proclaiming that “the deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete.” He said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and that the US naval blockade would be removed, concluding with the message: “Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
Brent Crude Approaches Key Support Zone
Following the diplomatic breakthrough, Brent crude — the global oil benchmark — extended its decline to fresh multi-month lows, slipping into the low-$80s for the first time since mid-April, when an earlier agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was announced. Markets appear to be betting that this latest deal could have a more lasting impact.
After breaking below both its 100-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Iran-war rally late last week, Brent is now closing in on a key technical support zone around $80 per barrel. This level has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance over extended periods and previously triggered significant bullish reversals when tested during the conflict, making it the most important downside level in the near term.
A decisive break below $80 could shift attention to the 200-day moving average near $77, followed by an unfilled price gap between $76 and $73.55. The latter marks Brent’s closing price on February 27, just before the outbreak of the Iran conflict.
On the upside, the first notable resistance level sits at $88.65, representing the 50% retracement of the war-driven advance. Any rebound toward this area would likely coincide with renewed concerns about the durability of the peace process.
Technical indicators continue to favor the bears. Both the RSI (14) and MACD point to strengthening downside momentum, suggesting that short positions remain more attractive than longs while the current trend persists.
DXY Tests Key Support as Selling Pressure Intensifies
The US Dollar Index (DXY) opened the week with a downside gap, slipping below a key support area defined by the May uptrend line and horizontal support at 99.51. This zone is now the immediate battleground for price action. A decisive break beneath it could pave the way for a deeper decline toward the May 29 low of 98.75, with additional support found near the convergence of the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages.
If buyers manage to regain control and push the index back above the broken support zone, attention would shift to last week’s high at 100.31, which represents the first significant resistance level overhead.
Momentum indicators are beginning to tilt in favor of the bears, although they have yet to generate a definitive sell signal. The RSI (14) is drifting back toward the neutral 50 mark, indicating fading bullish momentum, while the MACD appears close to a bearish crossover despite remaining in positive territory. For now, the signals serve more as a warning to dollar bulls than a clear invitation for aggressive short positioning.
EUR/USD Rally Encounters Key Resistance
EUR/USD broke above a resistance area formed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January–March decline and the May 21 low at 1.1577 at the start of the week, allowing the pair to test the ascending trendline that has guided price action higher since the March lows. However, the pair briefly touched this trendline before retreating, making it the key resistance level to monitor in the near term.
A sustained move above the trendline would expose an even more formidable resistance cluster overhead. This zone includes the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, horizontal resistance around 1.1670, and a descending trendline extending from the January highs. Together, these levels form a significant technical barrier that could prove difficult for euro bulls to overcome, even amid the current supportive backdrop.
On the downside, if the March uptrend continues to cap gains, the former breakout area around 1.1577—marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the May 21 low—may now act as initial support. A break below this level would shift focus toward the June lows near 1.1500.
Momentum indicators are currently sending neutral signals. The RSI (14) has broken above its recent downtrend, suggesting selling pressure is easing, while the MACD has just crossed higher from below, although it remains in negative territory. Together, these signals indicate that the downside momentum seen in recent sessions is fading, but they do not yet point to a strong bullish breakout.
Gold: Bullish Momentum Starts to Build
Gold has staged a decisive breakout following the deal announcement, surging above $4,240, a level that had capped gains late last week. With the breakout now confirmed, this area could shift into a support zone should prices experience a near-term pullback.
On the upside, the next key level to monitor is $4,352, the low recorded on March 23, which has acted as resistance on several occasions this month. Beyond that, attention turns to the May 28 low at $4,370 and former support at $4,427. If bullish momentum continues to accelerate, traders will also be watching the 200-day moving average near $4,450, a major technical hurdle visible on the daily timeframe.
Momentum indicators are beginning to support a more constructive outlook. The RSI (14) has climbed back above the neutral 50 mark, signaling improving buying pressure, while the MACD has crossed higher from below and is rapidly approaching positive territory. Together, these developments suggest that bullish momentum is building and could support further gains in the sessions ahead.
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