WTI Reverses Course as US-Iran Peace Talks Show Signs of Progress

• Oil prices weakened after the US and Iran signaled advances in diplomatic talks.
• Tehran says it secured waivers allowing continued oil and petrochemical exports.
• A sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could push WTI back toward the pre-war area around $67.20.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures on NYMEX fell 1.2% to around $75.50 during Monday’s Asian session, surrendering early gains as optimism grew over diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran following negotiations held in Switzerland over the weekend.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the talks as having achieved “great progress,” stating that Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, the release of certain frozen assets, and the initiation of a reconstruction and development program.

The positive remarks from Tehran carried particular weight because Iran had recently announced the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, citing ongoing hostilities in Lebanon. Any indication of easing tensions reduces concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies.

US Vice President JD Vance also welcomed the outcome of the negotiations, describing the discussions with Iranian representatives as productive and highlighting substantial progress toward a broader agreement.

Adding to the constructive sentiment, mediators from Qatar and Pakistan reported meaningful advances in the peace process. A joint statement indicated that a high-level committee had agreed on a roadmap aimed at reaching a final agreement within 60 days, paving the way for immediate technical negotiations.

Further easing supply concerns, a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry announced that a formal transit mechanism had been established to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for global energy shipments.

With geopolitical risk premiums fading and concerns over supply disruptions diminishing, oil markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility that WTI could continue retreating toward pre-conflict levels if stability in the region is maintained.

WTI Technical Analysis

WTI crude remains under pressure, trading near $75.50 and maintaining a bearish short-term outlook. The commodity continues to trade significantly below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at approximately $84.05, indicating that any near-term rebounds are likely to be corrective rather than the start of a sustained uptrend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) is hovering around 33, reflecting persistent selling momentum and suggesting that downside risks remain dominant.

On the upside, the 20-day EMA at $84.05 serves as the first major resistance level. A decisive break above this barrier would be required to weaken the current bearish structure and could pave the way for a stronger recovery toward the $90.00 region.

To the downside, immediate support is located at the June 18 low of $72.79. A breakdown below this level could accelerate selling pressure and expose the market to a deeper decline toward the pre-conflict price zone around $67.20. As long as WTI remains below the 20-day EMA, the broader near-term bias is likely to stay tilted to the downside.