NASDAQ 100
The Nasdaq 100 finished the week with a notably bearish candlestick pattern, largely driven by Friday’s sharp sell-off following the latest employment data. Investors reacted to concerns that the strong jobs report could prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on growth-oriented sectors, particularly technology stocks. However, the longer-term outlook remains supported by ongoing enthusiasm for the technology sector and the artificial intelligence trend. If these structural growth drivers remain intact, the Nasdaq 100 may eventually recover and resume its upward trajectory.
Some additional downside momentum could emerge in the near term given the market’s weak weekly close. However, the 28,500 level remains an important area to monitor. If the Nasdaq 100 manages to hold above this support zone, it may present an attractive opportunity for buyers to re-enter the market. Conversely, a sustained move below 28,500 could increase selling pressure and pave the way for a decline toward the 26,000 level.
USD/MXN
The US Dollar strengthened against the Mexican Peso over the course of the week, although the 17.50 area continues to act as a significant resistance level. The key question is whether this barrier can remain intact. With the pair likely to challenge this level again as trading resumes, a breakout is certainly possible. Even so, any gains beyond 17.50 may be limited, with the 18.00 level representing a likely upside target. Mexico’s substantially higher interest rates continue to provide strong support for the Peso, making it difficult for USD/MXN to sustain a more pronounced rally.
If the US Dollar begins to gain significant upward momentum against the Mexican Peso, it may be more attractive to take long Dollar positions against other currencies instead. This is because holding a long USD/MXN position can involve substantial swap or carry costs, which may reduce the overall appeal of the trade despite any potential appreciation in the Dollar.
Gold
Gold came under heavy selling pressure, a move that was not entirely unexpected after interest rates surged on Friday. The decline has pushed prices below the lower boundary of the hammer candlestick formed the previous week, signaling a notable deterioration in the technical outlook. This bearish development raises the risk of further downside. The 50-week EMA, currently located around the $4,270 level, represents a key support area. If gold falls below this threshold and selling momentum persists, the metal could experience a much deeper corrective move.
The current weakness in gold is largely tied to expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period. Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report reinforced this view, leading investors to scale back hopes for near-term monetary easing. However, if bond yields begin to decline—particularly if the US 10-year Treasury yield falls below the 4.50% level—the pressure on gold could ease, potentially allowing the precious metal to stabilize and recover.
Silver
Silver has slipped below the key $70 level, an area that previously served as an important support zone. The metal is now testing its 200-day EMA on the daily chart, making this a critical point for traders to watch. A decisive break below this technical indicator could signal further weakness and increase the likelihood of a decline toward the $65 level, based on signals from the longer-term weekly chart analysis.
At this stage, silver’s outlook remains heavily dependent on a decline in US interest rates. Persistent high yields continue to weigh on the precious metal, limiting its ability to sustain upward momentum. From a technical perspective, the weekly chart shows three consecutive attempts to push higher that were ultimately rejected, a pattern that reflects weakening bullish sentiment. For silver to regain strength and reverse its recent downtrend, support from the bond market—particularly through lower Treasury yields—may be necessary.
USD/CHF
The US Dollar strengthened significantly during the week, surpassing the key 0.79 mark against the Swiss Franc. This move suggests that the pair could continue its upward momentum, potentially advancing toward the 0.81 level.
The interest rate outlook in the United States remained volatile, with yields rising following the latest employment data. This increase further widened the rate gap between the US and Switzerland, enhancing the appeal of the US Dollar. As a result, the pair is likely to maintain its upward trajectory. Any near-term declines could present buying opportunities, provided US Treasury yields remain elevated. However, if the 10-year Treasury yield falls significantly, particularly below 4.50%, the bullish outlook for the Dollar may begin to weaken.
USD/ZAR
The US Dollar advanced against the South African Rand during the week, climbing above the 16.50 level as US interest rates moved higher. While South Africa continues to maintain higher rates than the United States, the widening strength of US yields has narrowed the interest rate advantage. Despite the recent gains, market participants may be watching for signs that the rally is losing momentum, which could encourage renewed selling pressure on the pair.
If bullish momentum continues to build, the pair could extend its advance toward the 50-week EMA, which is currently located around the 16.91 level.
GBP/USD
The British Pound came under heavy pressure against the US Dollar during the week, which was not particularly surprising given the broad-based strength of the Greenback. The key question now is whether the 1.33 level can continue to act as a support zone. If it holds, buyers may attempt to stabilize the market, but a decisive break below this level could signal further downside ahead.
The 1.33 level has been a significant support area for an extended period and is likely to remain a key focus for traders. If the pair can find support and rebound from this zone, the British Pound could regain strength and stage a recovery against the US Dollar. However, maintaining this level will be crucial for preserving the broader bullish outlook.
USD/CAD
The US Dollar posted a strong advance against the Canadian Dollar, rising to test the key 1.3950 level. This price zone has served as an important area of support and resistance on multiple occasions, making it a significant point of interest for traders. With the pair closing near this level, it is reasonable to expect continued volatility and choppy price action as the market attempts to determine its next direction.
If US interest rates continue to move higher, the USD/CAD pair is likely to maintain its upward momentum, potentially targeting the 1.4150 level. Conversely, if Treasury yields begin to decline, the pair could come under pressure and retreat toward the 1.38 level. As a result, the direction of US interest rates is likely to remain a key driver of price action in the near term.
USD/JPY
The US Dollar ended the week by testing the critical ¥160 level against the Japanese Yen. This is a closely watched psychological and technical threshold, and its importance to market participants could lead to heightened volatility as traders assess whether the pair has enough momentum to break higher or if resistance will hold.
This is a level where the Bank of Japan has intervened in the past, making it an area that deserves close attention. If USD/JPY can break decisively above the ¥160.50 level, it could trigger a significant bullish breakout by surpassing a major swing high that has stood since 1990. Such a move would likely reinforce the pair’s long-term upward momentum. In the meantime, any short-term pullbacks are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities by traders looking to participate in the broader uptrend.
EUR/USD
The Euro came under significant pressure this week, largely driven by rising US interest rates and the resulting strength of the US Dollar. With that in mind, it will be important to watch whether the market moves down to test the 1.14 level. While a rebound from that area is certainly possible, patience may be warranted. Rather than buying immediately, it may be wiser to wait for a clear “V-shaped” recovery pattern to emerge on the chart, as this would provide stronger confirmation that bullish momentum is returning.
Given the current market conditions, I am content to remain on the sidelines and observe how trading develops on Monday before making any decisions. The market may provide clearer direction after the initial reaction to recent price movements and interest rate expectations.
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