WTI Holds Steady Above $59 Amid Increasing Supply Concerns

• WTI prices rise amid growing supply concerns linked to escalating unrest in Iran.
• President Trump has warned Tehran against using force on protesters, while Iran has warned the U.S. and Israel against any intervention.
• However, oil price gains may be capped due to anticipated resumption of Venezuelan exports and forecasts of a potential market oversupply.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude extended its gains for a third consecutive session, trading around $59.10 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday. The rise in oil prices is driven by growing supply concerns amid escalating protests in Iran. As OPEC’s fourth-largest producer, exporting nearly 2 million barrels per day, any conflict escalation poses a significant risk to global supply.

The unrest, now in its third week and having reportedly resulted in hundreds of casualties, has prompted Iranian authorities to signal a harsher crackdown. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump warned Tehran against using force on protesters and suggested possible intervention if the situation worsens, while Iranian officials cautioned against any U.S. or Israeli involvement.

Oil price gains may be restrained by expectations that Venezuelan crude exports could resume following political changes in the country, with the U.S. poised to receive or manage up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil under a new arrangement with interim authorities. This potential influx of supply has tempered some of the upside from geopolitical risk.

However, uncertainty remains over the timing and scale of Venezuelan shipments, as shifting U.S. policy and the logistics of restarting exports from dilapidated ports and vessels cloud the outlook for actual flows.

Meanwhile, traders are watching for possible supply disruptions from Russia amid ongoing Ukraine attacks on energy infrastructure and the prospect of tougher U.S. sanctions on Russian energy exports — factors that could add upward pressure on prices if they materially reduce output.

Sources: Fxstreet