WTI Falls Despite Escalating US-Iran Tensions

Last Updated on 10/09/2026

• Growing tensions between the US and Iran continue to raise concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies.
• US President Donald Trump believes the conflict, along with elevated gasoline prices, could continue beyond November.
• Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have forced a temporary halt to some regional operations.

Fundamental Analysis

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil retreats after three consecutive sessions of gains, trading near $93.90 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, prices could rebound as the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran heightens concerns about potential disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies, suggesting that a resolution may still be some distance away.

Iran has signaled its readiness for a more intense confrontation, vowing to resist the US naval blockade and warning that it could intensify attacks if American forces continue striking targets on Iranian territory.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said the conflict could extend beyond the November midterm elections. He also indicated that gasoline prices are unlikely to fall significantly before then, pointing to limited chances of a near-term de-escalation.

Tensions have intensified sharply over the past week following about a month of relative calm, with both sides increasing military attacks. The crisis widened further after Iran-backed Houthi militants targeted several energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, forcing some regional operations to be temporarily suspended.

Oil prices supported by tightening supply risks

TD Securities strategists noted that crude prices remain supported as geopolitical tensions show few signs of easing. They said the latest escalation, combined with a preference for limited military action and economic pressure rather than negotiations, is keeping the energy market on a tightening path. As a result, persistent conflict-related supply concerns continue to support oil prices and leave the risk outlook tilted to the upside.