Last Updated on 10/09/2026
- Gold price rebounds toward $4,400 during Thursday’s early Asian trading session.
- Financial markets are assigning roughly a 60% probability to a Federal Reserve rate increase at next week’s policy meeting.
- Investors look ahead to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for August on Thursday, ahead of the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.
Fundamental Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds toward the $4,400 level during Thursday’s early Asian trading session, ending a three-day decline. The recovery is supported by a softer US Dollar, while investors remain focused on key US inflation releases scheduled for later this week, which may influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
According to Reuters, Iran announced on Wednesday that it had targeted 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz after the United States sank five Iranian oil tankers. The incident marks the largest escalation in maritime attacks since the conflict between the two countries began six months ago.
The renewed geopolitical tensions, combined with rising crude oil prices, have increased concerns about inflation and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at next week’s meeting. Higher borrowing costs generally create headwinds for gold, as the non-yielding metal becomes less attractive compared with interest-bearing investments.
Market participants are now awaiting the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, followed by Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Friday. These reports are expected to provide further insight into whether policymakers will need to tighten monetary policy to keep inflation under control.
Current market pricing suggests roughly a 60% probability that the Fed will deliver another rate hike at its upcoming meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Gold remains driven by economic data and inflation expectations
Analysts at TD Securities noted that stronger-than-expected employment data initially pressured gold prices. However, a less aggressive tone from Federal Reserve officials and currency-market interventions later eased concerns, highlighting the market’s heightened sensitivity to incoming economic data and geopolitical developments.
The firm views inflation data as the next major catalyst for gold. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could strengthen expectations for tighter monetary policy and weigh on the precious metal. Conversely, softer inflation figures may encourage a fresh wave of investor demand and support further gains.
Technical Analysis: Gold maintains a positive outlook above the 100-day SMA
On the daily chart, gold continues to trade above its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), preserving a constructive near-term outlook despite ongoing consolidation between the lower Bollinger Band and the middle-band resistance level. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 50.65, indicating neutral momentum after the recent pullback.
On the upside, the first resistance level is located near the Bollinger Band midpoint at $4,465. A decisive move above this area could open the door toward the upper Bollinger Band around $4,675. On the downside, immediate support is found at the 100-day SMA near $4,345, followed by stronger support around the lower Bollinger Band at $4,255, where buyers may emerge on deeper declines.
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