Last Updated on 08/09/2026
- Gold tumbles to around $4,410 during early Asian trading on Tuesday.
- Markets are pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike next week.
- US PPI and CPI inflation figures will take center stage as traders assess the Fed’s next policy move.
Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices (XAU/USD) edge lower toward $4,410 during early Asian trading on Tuesday, extending their decline after stronger-than-expected US employment data boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month.
US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 162K in August, well above the market forecast of 56K and the previous reading of 21K, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. Following the jobs report, markets raised the probability of a Fed rate hike next week to around 60%, up from 50% before the data was released.
The stronger labor-market figures pushed US Treasury yields higher and reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy, weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold. Investors will now focus on this week’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports. Hotter-than-expected inflation could strengthen expectations for a September rate hike, potentially supporting the US Dollar and putting further pressure on gold. Conversely, softer inflation would increase the likelihood of a rate hold and could weaken the Greenback, providing some support for bullion.
Gold’s Long-Term Bullish Structure Remains Intact
Despite the recent pullback, Societe Generale analysts believe gold has entered a new phase of its 2026 bull market, increasingly supported by structural demand rather than short-term speculative momentum. The broader trend is being reinforced by rising exposure across physical markets, futures, options, retail investors, institutional money managers, and derivatives traders.
UOB Group, however, notes that near-term price action remains highly sensitive to US macroeconomic data. Gold fell more than 0.9% on Friday to $4,429.98 per ounce after the stronger jobs report boosted expectations of a potential Fed rate hike, reducing the appeal of the non-yielding metal.
Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Remains Neutral
Technically, gold is trading between its 20-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), suggesting a period of consolidation. The metal remains above the lower Bollinger Band but has yet to challenge the upper band, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 51 indicates balanced momentum.
On the upside, resistance is located around $4,465, where the 20-day SMA and Bollinger middle band converge. A sustained move above this level could expose the $4,675 area near the upper Bollinger Band.
On the downside, initial support lies around $4,350, near the 100-day SMA. A break below this level could expose stronger support around $4,260, with a decisive move beneath that zone potentially signaling a deeper correction.
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