WTI falls below $90.50 despite growing Middle East supply concerns

Last Updated on 08/09/2026

• WTI could extend its gains as Iran threatens regional energy infrastructure following last week’s nearly 10% rally.
• Growing attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi energy facilities heighten fears of major Middle East supply disruptions.
• Tight US fuel inventories are adding further pressure to global oil supplies despite continued Persian Gulf exports.

Fundamental Analysis

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil edges lower to around $90.40 per barrel during Asian trading on Tuesday, but the downside appears limited as escalating tensions in the Middle East raise the risk of further supply disruptions.

Iran has vowed to target energy infrastructure across the region in response to additional US attacks on its assets, marking another escalation in a conflict that has already significantly disrupted regional oil supplies. Crude prices jumped nearly 10% last week as renewed fighting intensified concerns over potential disruptions, with attacks continuing over the weekend involving ships and military vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Aramco facilities in Jazan, near the Red Sea, were also targeted again on Monday, although the damage was reportedly limited. Meanwhile, Iran said an agreement with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is close to completion, raising further concerns about Tehran’s increasing influence over the strategically important oil route.

US inventory data is adding to the bullish supply outlook. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles remain well below both last year’s levels and five-year seasonal averages, suggesting that domestic fuel markets have become tighter in recent weeks.

Despite the growing geopolitical risks, oil exports through the Persian Gulf remain substantial, with approximately 7 million barrels per day of crude and refined products still moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent Outlook Remains Supported

Societe Generale analysts maintain a constructive view on Brent crude, arguing that there are currently no clear signs of a major correction. They identify the $89 area, corresponding to last week’s low, as an important near-term support level and believe downside risks remain relatively contained for now.