Silver prices retreated to around $62 after posting gains for four consecutive sessions. Expectations of additional weakness in crude oil prices could help cap the metal’s downside by supporting its broader market outlook. Meanwhile, investors are turning their attention to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for fresh signals on the future direction of US interest rates.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) slipped around 1% to approximately $61.80 during Monday’s Asian session, pulling back after recording gains over the previous four trading days. Despite the correction, the precious metal could regain momentum as analysts increasingly expect oil prices to weaken further, a development that may reduce global inflationary pressures.
In recent months, silver came under significant pressure as crude oil prices surged amid supply concerns linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Higher energy costs fueled inflation worries, weighing on the outlook for precious metals.
Analysts at Citigroup have projected that Brent crude could decline toward $60 per barrel by the end of the year, citing improving market fundamentals. They noted that concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are easing, while shipping activity is gradually returning to normal levels.
During Asian trading hours, Brent crude was down roughly 0.5%, trading near $71.80 per barrel and remaining close to Thursday’s five-month low of $70.26.
At the same time, easing expectations for further interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve are providing additional support for silver. The shift in sentiment followed the release of the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Thursday.
Data from the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of the Fed implementing at least one additional rate hike by the end of September has fallen to 53.2%, compared with 59.4% a week earlier.
Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the minutes from the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, scheduled for release on Wednesday, for further insight into the US central bank’s policy outlook.
Technical Analysis
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading lower near $61.94 at the time of writing, coming under renewed selling pressure after a corrective rebound toward its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently positioned around $63.53.
Technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment remains in place, although downside momentum has weakened. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from the 20–40 range and is now hovering near 42, indicating that selling pressure has moderated but has not yet shifted the overall trend to bullish.
On the upside, the 20-day EMA at $63.53 serves as the first significant resistance level. A daily close above this barrier would help neutralize the prevailing bearish outlook and could pave the way for a stronger recovery toward the June 22 peak of $67.17, with the psychologically important $70.00 level as the next target.
Conversely, if silver resumes its downward trajectory and breaks below the June 24 low of $55.63, the metal could enter a fresh phase of decline, exposing it to deeper losses in the sessions ahead.
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