Gold holds above $4,300 ahead of the Fed rate decision, supported by strong central bank demand and ongoing de-dollarization trends, according to Rabobank.

Gold steadies above $4,300 as investors await the Fed’s rate decision for fresh market direction.

• Gold trades within a tight range as investors remain cautious ahead of the key FOMC rate announcement.
• Market participants are awaiting clearer signals on the Fed’s future policy direction before making new bullish or bearish positions.
• Meanwhile, optimism surrounding a US-Iran peace agreement continues to pressure the US Dollar, providing underlying support for the precious metal.

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to build on its weekly rebound but continues to hold above the $4,300 level during Wednesday’s Asian session. Optimism surrounding a temporary US-Iran peace agreement keeps the US Dollar under pressure, offering some support to bullion prices. However, the precious metal remains capped below Monday’s weekly peak and the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as investors stay cautious ahead of the outcome of the two-day FOMC policy meeting. The Fed’s decision is expected to influence US Dollar demand and provide fresh direction for non-yielding assets like Gold.

The United States and Iran have reportedly agreed on a framework peace deal aimed at ending the conflict that erupted earlier in 2026. The preliminary memorandum of understanding (MoU) includes a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and plans for further negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program. However, uncertainty remains as details of the agreement are still limited and conflicting statements continue to emerge. US President Donald Trump stated that the deal would ensure Iran never acquires nuclear weapons, while Iranian state media claimed that no detailed nuclear negotiations had yet taken place.

Meanwhile, reports suggesting the creation of a $300 billion private investment fund for Iran were dismissed by Trump as “fake news,” adding to market uncertainty. This cautious sentiment is preventing aggressive bearish bets against the US Dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement later today. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, though policymakers may adopt a less dovish tone as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. Investors will therefore focus closely on updated economic projections and the Fed’s dot plot for clues on future policy moves.

Attention will also turn to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting press conference for further guidance on the central bank’s outlook. Markets have recently scaled back fears of extreme inflation and aggressive Fed tightening that intensified during the US-Iran conflict. Even so, traders still see around a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. As a result, a clearer dovish pivot from the Fed may be required before investors regain confidence in extending Gold’s recovery from last week’s year-to-date low.

XAU/USD daily chart

From a technical standpoint, Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure as prices continue to trade below both the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-to-June decline and the descending 200-day SMA, preserving the broader bearish outlook. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 44 and a mildly positive MACD signal suggest that downside momentum is fading, although bullish conviction remains limited.

As a result, any additional upside could initially face resistance around the $4,400 psychological level, followed by the key $4,445–$4,450 region, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-day SMA converge. A sustained daily close above this zone would help weaken bearish pressure and potentially pave the way toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $4,560, with further resistance levels seen around $4,707 and $4,893.

On the downside, immediate support is located near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around $4,227. Below that, the recent swing low near $4,022 remains a crucial structural support level. A decisive break beneath this area would reinforce the prevailing bearish trend and increase the risk of deeper losses.

Gold supported by rising central bank buying and global de-dollarization trends, says Rabobank.

Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team highlighted growing central bank demand for Gold amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and the ongoing global de-dollarization trend. The report noted that central banks are increasingly repatriating Gold reserves instead of storing bullion overseas, while most survey respondents expect official Gold holdings to continue rising over the next five years.

The report also pointed to broader concerns surrounding global financial stability and security risks. Citing the Financial Times, Rabobank noted that capital continues flowing into “insurance assets” despite elevated geopolitical tensions, prompting fears that markets may be underpricing risk. Traditionally, investors have relied on central banks to stabilize markets during periods of stress, though Rabobank questioned whether policymakers can continue playing that role while also dealing with growing geopolitical and security challenges.

In addition, the report referenced a Wall Street Journal article about a $40 million Gold heist that could potentially expose sensitive CIA intelligence operations. Rabobank also highlighted Nikkei Asia survey findings showing that 84% of respondents expect central banks to increase Gold reserves further as countries continue reducing reliance on the US Dollar in global trade and reserve management.