EUR/USD must break above 1.1825 to trigger a new upward move.

• EUR/USD is consolidating after approaching the 1.1825 level, as markets pause for fresh catalysts.
• Optimism around renewed US–Iran negotiations is keeping the pair supported, with reports suggesting Iran may be willing to make concessions on uranium enrichment—reducing safe-haven demand for the US dollar.
• At the same time, ECB policymaker François Villeroy has signaled that a rate hike at the April 30 meeting is unlikely, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will wait for more data before tightening policy.

EUR/USD is trading quietly around 1.1777 in Friday’s Asian session, moving sideways after a two-week rally that stalled near 1.1825, as investors await clarity on the next round of US–Iran negotiations.

Market sentiment remains cautiously positive, with S&P 500 futures holding steady after a modest gain, while the US Dollar Index edges slightly higher but is still on track for a weekly decline.

Geopolitically, uncertainty persists as no timeline has been set for renewed talks, though President Trump expressed optimism that Iran may abandon its uranium enrichment program and suggested a deal could be close, while warning of possible military action if negotiations fail.

Meanwhile, ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau has dampened expectations of a rate hike at the upcoming April meeting, stating that such discussions are premature, reinforcing a more cautious monetary policy outlook in the Eurozone.

Technical Overview

EUR/USD is moving sideways near 1.1777 during the Asian session, but the short-term outlook remains mildly bullish. The pair continues to trade above its 20-day EMA at 1.1673, preserving the recent upward momentum after bouncing from the mid-1.15 region. Momentum indicators also support this view, with the 14-day RSI around 62, indicating steady buying pressure without entering overbought territory.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 1.1673 acts as immediate support. A decisive break below this level could undermine the current rally and trigger a deeper retracement toward the mid-1.15 consolidation zone. However, as long as this support holds, the bullish bias remains intact, with potential for a move above the April 16 peak of 1.1825 and further gains toward the February high near 1.1929.